WEBVTT - David Wallace-Wells & Brian Klass

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<v Speaker 1>Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics.

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<v Speaker 1>Well we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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<v Speaker 1>today's best minds.

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<v Speaker 2>We're on vacation, but that doesn't mean we don't have

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<v Speaker 2>a great show for you today. David Wallace Well stops

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<v Speaker 2>by updatus on what he's seeing on the climate change front.

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<v Speaker 2>But first we have the author of Fluke, Chance, Chaos

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<v Speaker 2>and why everything we do matters, Brian Klass.

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<v Speaker 3>Welcome too, Fast Politics.

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<v Speaker 4>Brian, it's so great to be back.

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<v Speaker 3>You're in the UK.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we must first do two seconds on the UK,

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<v Speaker 1>despite its complete lack of importance in the world, no

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<v Speaker 1>offense or anything, talk to us about what's going on there. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>So I'm a dual national now, so I get to

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<v Speaker 4>vote in both the UK and the US elections.

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<v Speaker 3>Is that photo fraud? That feels like photo fraud? Now?

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<v Speaker 4>I endeavor to do a bye by the rules since

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<v Speaker 4>I once sorte a book called how to regular Election,

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<v Speaker 4>I have to be sort of careful about that.

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<v Speaker 5>No.

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<v Speaker 4>But the thing that's interesting about the UK, it's going

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<v Speaker 4>to be an electoral landslide for the Labor Party, the

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<v Speaker 4>last wing party, And what's really striking here is that

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<v Speaker 4>when you screw up a country and when you sort

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<v Speaker 4>of fail to govern, people actually change their minds. And

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<v Speaker 4>so what you see here is that the Tory base,

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<v Speaker 4>the Conservative Party base, has sort of fallen out. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>they're pulling somewhere between seventeen and twenty four percent in

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<v Speaker 4>most of the polls, and they won forty six percent

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<v Speaker 4>of the votes in the last election, so they've lost

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<v Speaker 4>half their vote. And I think this is the thing

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<v Speaker 4>that makes me the most depressed about the United States

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<v Speaker 4>is that, by contrast, you can have all the stuff

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<v Speaker 4>with Trump, you know, thirty four felonies, all the craziness

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<v Speaker 4>and all the failures of governance, and he's just at

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<v Speaker 4>forty percent always. And I think that's something that speaks

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<v Speaker 4>to you know, a rareer statement these days. But the

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<v Speaker 4>comparative health actually of British democracy is that when you

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<v Speaker 4>wreck the country, there are still electoral consequences here.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so I'm going to just push back here, and

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<v Speaker 1>I hate to push back, but you guys are a

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<v Speaker 1>coalition government. I mean, if we were in a coalition government,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we'd be in a totally different place.

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<v Speaker 4>That's true, But really there are are two main viable

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<v Speaker 4>parties in most UK elections. And I think the other

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<v Speaker 4>thing it's worth remembering is that this is something where

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<v Speaker 4>the Conservative Party has collapsed. It's not something where you have,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, a situation where it's all of a sudden,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, there's different coalitions. It's that they've actually lost

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<v Speaker 4>half their voters. So in other words, they got forty

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<v Speaker 4>six percent last time around, they're probably going to get

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<v Speaker 4>like twenty percent this time around. Whereas you know, you're

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<v Speaker 4>not seeing that sort of shift in the US, especially

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<v Speaker 4>even among favorability ratings for Trump, right, So like if

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<v Speaker 4>you ask people like do you think the Conservatives are good,

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<v Speaker 4>those ratings have also collapsed, Whereas if you ask people

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<v Speaker 4>do you think Trump is good, they're pretty flat. And

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<v Speaker 4>so you know, that's that's the thing again. I mean

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<v Speaker 4>Liz Trust was the other instance of this, where she's

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<v Speaker 4>completely bankrupted the country, messed the economy up in a

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<v Speaker 4>catastrophic way, you know, famously failed to outlive a lettuce

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<v Speaker 4>and so on. She had a nine percent approval rating

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<v Speaker 4>in the only poll that was taken, because she was

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<v Speaker 4>only in power long enough to have one poll taken,

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<v Speaker 4>but it was you know, unbelievably unpopular, and that meant

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<v Speaker 4>that her own party had turned on her. And I

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<v Speaker 4>think that's what's really striking to me as an American

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<v Speaker 4>living in the UK and now a naturalized British citizen

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<v Speaker 4>as well, is that they are still capable of turning

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<v Speaker 4>on their own party.

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<v Speaker 3>They're not as partisan as Americans.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think there's just more of a willingness to

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<v Speaker 4>sort of jettison a politician when they objectively screw up.

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<v Speaker 4>And I mean, you know, the last sort of fourteen

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<v Speaker 4>years of Britain has been one of decline, and so

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<v Speaker 4>people are fed up and they're actually changing their minds

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<v Speaker 4>and changing their votes.

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<v Speaker 1>I both agree and disagree here, Like I do think

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<v Speaker 1>that one of Trump's superpowers is that he's very charismatic,

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<v Speaker 1>which is Boris Johnson was. I don't want to sound

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<v Speaker 1>like a snob here, but Boris Johnson was like maybe

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<v Speaker 1>a little too intelligent, even though again I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to get roasted for saying this, but like

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<v Speaker 1>he was. I mean, Boris Johnson compared to Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>As like Lincoln. I mean, am I wrong?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, his policies are terrible, He's completely crazy, but

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<v Speaker 1>I think he is a little less crazy than Trump

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<v Speaker 1>and a little more posh.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's true, But I also think that the

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<v Speaker 4>UK electorate would never go for a Trump figure. I mean,

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<v Speaker 4>Boris is as close to that that you could possibly get,

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<v Speaker 4>because for sure, I mean over here universally, the conversations

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<v Speaker 4>that Americans have with British people about US politics is

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<v Speaker 4>what is happening? How can you possibly still be flirting

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<v Speaker 4>with Trump for a second term. There's just a bafflement, right,

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<v Speaker 4>There's this sort of can you please explain to me

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<v Speaker 4>how this person still is in politics, because you know,

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<v Speaker 4>there are consequences for scandals in UK politics, even though

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<v Speaker 4>there's still scandals, right. It's not like they're politicians who

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<v Speaker 4>are free from scandal. It's just that they actually have

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<v Speaker 4>consequences and they destroy careers still and they have you know,

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<v Speaker 4>sort of inquiries from nonpartisan groups that condemn them, and

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<v Speaker 4>then they leave politics and shame still exists Boris notwithstanding.

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<v Speaker 4>It's one of the things where whenever I tell people,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, that I've become a naturalized British citizen, they

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<v Speaker 4>always say, you know, commiserations, you've left one sinking ship

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<v Speaker 4>for another, you know, But I do think that the

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<v Speaker 4>UK is sinking less, and I think part of that

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<v Speaker 4>is because of what's about to happen on July fourth,

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<v Speaker 4>which is the UK elections, where there is going to

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<v Speaker 4>be a I mean, I think this will be a

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<v Speaker 4>complete sea change election. I mean we could have one

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<v Speaker 4>of the biggest wipeouts of Conservative politicians in living memory,

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<v Speaker 4>possibly more than from nineteen ninety seven when Tony Blair

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<v Speaker 4>rose to power. To me, this is really indicative of

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<v Speaker 4>complete collapse, is that they're like the person who's the

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<v Speaker 4>chancellor right now, Jeremy Hunt could lose his seat right

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<v Speaker 4>he's like the second in command basically for the party

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<v Speaker 4>and he's fighting to maintain his position in Parliament. There

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<v Speaker 4>are going to be a lot of senior politicians who

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<v Speaker 4>are ousted from politics altogether in this election, which is

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<v Speaker 4>not going to happen in the United States come November.

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<v Speaker 4>So I think there's some stuff for his glimmers of hope.

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<v Speaker 3>In the UK.

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<v Speaker 1>Every election since twenty sixteen, Trump has lost. So even

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<v Speaker 1>though the polls make it look tight, make it seem tight,

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<v Speaker 1>they're polling this elector we don't know if that going

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<v Speaker 1>to show up or not. Largely Republicans have not really

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<v Speaker 1>won since twenty sixteen, and even when they won the House,

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<v Speaker 1>it was sort of this Ron Lauder sneak in these

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<v Speaker 1>five Republicans in California and in New York State that

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<v Speaker 1>they might be real moderates and not vote for stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm talking about d Esposito and Mike Lawler and a

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<v Speaker 1>bunch of white guys who seem like they might not

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<v Speaker 1>be so bad. So even if the polls say one thing,

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe these polls are correct and maybe we have

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<v Speaker 1>this trumpy election in twenty twenty four that makes us

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<v Speaker 1>all eat our hats. But if you were to just

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<v Speaker 1>look at elections, every single special election since the fall

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<v Speaker 1>of Row has been a fucking shit show for Republicans.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean I get that, But the thing is

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<v Speaker 4>that there's not been like an electoral blood bass for

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<v Speaker 4>Republicans ever. And like, this is something where we're talking

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<v Speaker 4>the Tories. So there's six hundred and fifty seats in

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<v Speaker 4>the British Parliament and there's a question about whether the

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<v Speaker 4>Tories going to win one hundred, right, I mean, this

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<v Speaker 4>is the kind of stuff we're talking about.

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<v Speaker 1>But they've been in power for almost twenty years. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>they left the European Union. Like Trump is a fucking

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<v Speaker 1>moron and a lunatic, But the damage that has happened

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<v Speaker 1>with leaving the EU is harder to effects than Trump.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, I don't think I agree with that.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think they could go back into the EU

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<v Speaker 1>or you think it's not as damaging.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't think that the damage is more severe than

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<v Speaker 4>Trump is doing to say American democracy and so on.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the problems that Trump is injected into the

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<v Speaker 4>US political bloodstream are generational. One way that I think

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<v Speaker 4>is worth thinking about with the UK versus the US

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<v Speaker 4>is that I think the UK is basically a broken

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<v Speaker 4>economy with a functioning society and political system, and I

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<v Speaker 4>think the US is the opposite. The US is a

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<v Speaker 4>functioning economy with a broken society and political system. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>And I think basically, you know, economics can be fixed.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, obviously leaving the EU as a catastrophic disaster,

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<v Speaker 4>but you know there's going to be over time closer

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<v Speaker 4>regulatory alignment, and they're going to try to get the

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<v Speaker 4>trade policy closer and closer to what it was in

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<v Speaker 4>the EU. Won't be the same, it will still do

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<v Speaker 4>mass damage. But I mean, like social trust still exists

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<v Speaker 4>to a pretty high degree here.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, that's true.

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<v Speaker 4>And on top of that, you know, I mean it

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<v Speaker 4>was just it was really indicative to go through the

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<v Speaker 4>pandemic and then go to the US because you know,

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<v Speaker 4>like the guy who is the version of Anthony Fauci

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<v Speaker 4>here and then and Chris Whitty, like he's like a celebrity,

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<v Speaker 4>he's like a hero, and like Anthony Fauci has to

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<v Speaker 4>walk around with like, you know, protection because people are

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<v Speaker 4>trying to murder him because they think he concocted COVID,

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<v Speaker 4>and so like this is the kind of stuff where

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<v Speaker 4>you just see like mirror images where there's just like

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<v Speaker 4>a generally functioning society based in reality. And I'm not

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<v Speaker 4>I'm not trying to whitewash the UK's problems. It's got

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<v Speaker 4>serious political problems. But like because the BBC is the

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<v Speaker 4>main source of news for people, which like sixty percent

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<v Speaker 4>of people get their news from the BBC, the debates

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<v Speaker 4>start from the perspective of like here's how the world is.

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<v Speaker 3>A shared reality.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, like what should we do about it? Whereas like

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<v Speaker 4>when I talk to people about US politics, like you

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<v Speaker 4>start to talk to a Trump supporter and you just

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<v Speaker 4>don't agree on basic principles like who is the president

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<v Speaker 4>who won the election? Right? Like is COVID real? Like

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<v Speaker 4>these are problems that are just so fundamentally different, I

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<v Speaker 4>think in terms of the scale of the debate, and

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<v Speaker 4>also I think the state of the media as well.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, the ways that politicians get held to account

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<v Speaker 4>in the British press is savage and it's something that

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<v Speaker 4>we do not do as well in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>No, no question, and we can definitely agree on all

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<v Speaker 1>of those points. So I'm just curious that when we're

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<v Speaker 1>right now talking about the United States, what you're pointing

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<v Speaker 1>to with the BBC, which is something we talk about

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<v Speaker 1>a lot, is how do you make sure that the

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<v Speaker 1>information that is linked to is verified and true?

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<v Speaker 5>Right?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, that's the issue, right, I Mean. One of

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<v Speaker 1>the weirdest things that now we're back in the pandemic,

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<v Speaker 1>but I want to talk about it, is this idea

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<v Speaker 1>of COVID. Right, we had this disease. It was Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, just spread disinformation. A million Americans died. There

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<v Speaker 1>were things that were like laughably bad, Like for example,

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<v Speaker 1>the thing I think the most about is the horse

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<v Speaker 1>de Warmer, right, or the blood pressure medicine, right or no,

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<v Speaker 1>it was a malaria medicine. The malaria medicine or the

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<v Speaker 1>horse to warmer. These were two things that Trump's people

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<v Speaker 1>said could cure COVID. Neither of them cured COVID. About

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<v Speaker 1>a year ago, maybe not a year ago, six months ago.

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<v Speaker 1>We had dinner with a friend who's very smart, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>advanced degrees, but a right winger. He said he had

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<v Speaker 1>taken horse to warmer when he had COVID. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it was insane, right, Like, you're a smart person. Just

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<v Speaker 1>we have an actual medicine that works for COVID. So

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<v Speaker 1>I do think that there's not an agreed upon truth

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<v Speaker 1>in America, which is insane.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think this is like the generational challenge that

0:10:46.800 --> 0:10:49.240
<v Speaker 4>I keep pointing to when I when I think about

0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:52.120
<v Speaker 4>US politics is that you know, I hope and and

0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:54.680
<v Speaker 4>still believe that Trump is likely to lose in November,

0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:56.720
<v Speaker 4>but I don't think that's going to break the spell

0:10:56.880 --> 0:10:59.160
<v Speaker 4>and change the Republican Party right.

0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:01.240
<v Speaker 3>Of trump Ism. Yeah, I agree.

0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:04.040
<v Speaker 4>There's a core question that I think people don't always

0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:06.960
<v Speaker 4>take head on, which is, you know, what explains the

0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:09.960
<v Speaker 4>fact that forty percent of the country still likes him,

0:11:10.320 --> 0:11:12.560
<v Speaker 4>and there's sort of you know, there's two main groups

0:11:12.559 --> 0:11:15.000
<v Speaker 4>of arguments around this. One is that they're bad people,

0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:18.640
<v Speaker 4>right because like choice, you nowhere, like you just you

0:11:19.200 --> 0:11:22.079
<v Speaker 4>like the Fellon, you're racist, et cetera. Right, And that

0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:24.280
<v Speaker 4>explains some of the base, like there's no question that

0:11:24.280 --> 0:11:27.000
<v Speaker 4>these are people are you know, just valueless or have

0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:29.520
<v Speaker 4>values that I simply don't share. But I think there's

0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:32.360
<v Speaker 4>another part of it, the second camp of explanations, which

0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:35.360
<v Speaker 4>is around information flows. British people don't get exposed to

0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:37.120
<v Speaker 4>Fox News, and when they do see it, like when

0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:39.520
<v Speaker 4>I show my classes clips of it, they think it's insane.

0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:42.400
<v Speaker 4>They have never seen news that's like this, and the

0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:45.360
<v Speaker 4>right wing equivalent, gb News in the UK is watched

0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:47.600
<v Speaker 4>by a tiny, tiny slice of the electorate. I mean

0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:50.280
<v Speaker 4>it's it's really unpopular, it's hemorrhaging money, et cetera. And

0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:51.679
<v Speaker 4>if I could show, you know, one of the things

0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:53.679
<v Speaker 4>I've always wanted to do is like to show Americans,

0:11:53.720 --> 0:11:56.120
<v Speaker 4>like what does a BBC radio show look like in

0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.200
<v Speaker 4>the morning, And like last week I was listening to

0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:01.839
<v Speaker 4>this labor minister abs grilled about like the minutia of

0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:06.439
<v Speaker 4>housing policy in their manifesto right like down to like details,

0:12:06.720 --> 0:12:08.680
<v Speaker 4>and you're like, where is this in the US, Like

0:12:08.720 --> 0:12:10.840
<v Speaker 4>we don't talk about the sort of nitty gritty of

0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:12.600
<v Speaker 4>like what are you going to do if you govern?

0:12:12.760 --> 0:12:15.320
<v Speaker 4>And I think it creates a sense of reality where

0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:17.880
<v Speaker 4>it's like, Okay, there's a real problem. So I think

0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:22.240
<v Speaker 4>the information pipelines are one of the biggest generational problems

0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:23.920
<v Speaker 4>we have in the United States. And I think it's

0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:25.840
<v Speaker 4>something where, you know, if all I did was watch

0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:29.160
<v Speaker 4>Fox News twenty four to seven, you know, I think

0:12:29.160 --> 0:12:31.360
<v Speaker 4>I'd be more sympathetic to Trump too, because you just

0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:33.800
<v Speaker 4>get a warped sense of what's going on and you

0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:36.720
<v Speaker 4>don't see all of the bad news about him. In fact,

0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:38.480
<v Speaker 4>they often you know, sort of just gloss over it

0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:40.319
<v Speaker 4>or don't even report it. So I, you know, I

0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:42.600
<v Speaker 4>think this is the This is the big difference to

0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:44.840
<v Speaker 4>me is that the BBC, which is imperfect. I mean,

0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:46.840
<v Speaker 4>I'm not saying it's perfect, but it's something where it

0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:51.200
<v Speaker 4>provides this sort of shared base where people say, Okay,

0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:53.320
<v Speaker 4>this is what's going on in the world. Now let's

0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:55.880
<v Speaker 4>debate the solutions, which is what democracy has to be.

0:12:56.200 --> 0:12:57.840
<v Speaker 4>And in the US you have the debate over like

0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:00.600
<v Speaker 4>what is happening, and there's two different persons. He's a reality,

0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:01.280
<v Speaker 4>they're competing.

0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:03.880
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think that's right, and I also think that

0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:08.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean, now at this point, Fox News doesn't have

0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:12.520
<v Speaker 1>the numbers it had in twenty sixteen, but the Fox

0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:17.920
<v Speaker 1>News ethos, you know, streams and podcasts. I mean, Steve

0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.360
<v Speaker 1>Bannon has a humongous podcast, The War Room, and Steve

0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:24.320
<v Speaker 1>Bannon is not the same as Joe Rogan, but Joe

0:13:24.400 --> 0:13:27.480
<v Speaker 1>Rogan is a gateway to Steve Bannon, and millions of

0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.480
<v Speaker 1>people listen to Joe Rogan. Right, So Joe Rogan is

0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:35.080
<v Speaker 1>arguably significantly more meaningful than Fox when it comes to

0:13:35.160 --> 0:13:38.760
<v Speaker 1>shifting the electorate. So Rush Limbo was the biggest voter

0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:41.120
<v Speaker 1>turnout driver that Republicans had.

0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:43.960
<v Speaker 3>He was the get out the vote for Republicans.

0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:48.080
<v Speaker 1>So if you think about it, you know, Fox Rush,

0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:52.120
<v Speaker 1>Now Joe Rogan not necessarily as toxic as Rush, but

0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.760
<v Speaker 1>certainly on a similar continuum. There is a real media

0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:59.480
<v Speaker 1>complex that is devoted to pumping up Republicans, which is

0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:04.199
<v Speaker 1>such a strange thing if you think about because I mean,

0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:09.080
<v Speaker 1>I guess it's just an ideological love of not paying taxes, right.

0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:11.880
<v Speaker 4>You're exactly right. I think the decentralization where there's all

0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:14.320
<v Speaker 4>these splinter different outlets and you have, you know, all

0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:16.960
<v Speaker 4>the different right wing TV stations, but also the podcast

0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:18.720
<v Speaker 4>networks and so on. I mean, I think the difference

0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:21.520
<v Speaker 4>though as well, is that the stuff that they're putting

0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.560
<v Speaker 4>out is so much crazier than the fringe things that

0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.240
<v Speaker 4>happen in Europe or the UK. I mean, you know,

0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:30.320
<v Speaker 4>like Canvas Owens, who's got this big following now, I

0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:32.120
<v Speaker 4>do you know that her latest, you know, thing that

0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:35.400
<v Speaker 4>she's trying to pump is this insane conspiracy theory that

0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 4>Brigide Matt Crang is actually a man, right, and it's

0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:40.320
<v Speaker 4>like it's just and it's just like you know, it's

0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:44.880
<v Speaker 4>it's hateful, it's delusional, it's insane, and like in Britain,

0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:46.800
<v Speaker 4>if you were to pump this stuff, you would just

0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:49.600
<v Speaker 4>become a forgotten crack pot, right, I mean, it would

0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.000
<v Speaker 4>just it would kill your audience. And even the provocateurists

0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 4>who like make their name in British riving politics, like

0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:58.200
<v Speaker 4>they have one foot in reality and they push the limits.

0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:00.760
<v Speaker 4>But the limits are so tame relative to what we're

0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:02.400
<v Speaker 4>talking about. Now, And I mean I think this is

0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:04.280
<v Speaker 4>the kind of stuff where, like, you know, Liz Trust,

0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:07.240
<v Speaker 4>for example, went on a podcast where the host had

0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:10.920
<v Speaker 4>previously made objectionable comments about women and specifically about one

0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:14.240
<v Speaker 4>female MP, and Liz Trust got condemned by members for

0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:16.920
<v Speaker 4>own party going on a podcast where someone had made

0:15:16.960 --> 0:15:19.880
<v Speaker 4>misogynist comments. I mean the scale of sort of like

0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:23.680
<v Speaker 4>what the boundaries are is so different, right because I mean,

0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:26.640
<v Speaker 4>like the Republican presidential cad that has been found liable

0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:30.160
<v Speaker 4>for sexual assault personally, he bragged about assaulting women, Whereas,

0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:32.320
<v Speaker 4>like you know, if you have a politician who's even

0:15:32.320 --> 0:15:37.280
<v Speaker 4>adjacent to someone making misogynistic comments, there's still like consequences

0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:39.240
<v Speaker 4>for them politically in the UK, So this is the

0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:41.840
<v Speaker 4>stuff we're living outside the US. I sort of watched

0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:45.640
<v Speaker 4>these norms moving and they still exist here and the

0:15:45.680 --> 0:15:47.960
<v Speaker 4>system is still really messed up. I mean, the UK

0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:51.360
<v Speaker 4>is not a paragon of functioning democracy. It still has

0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:55.480
<v Speaker 4>this kind of you know, reality and consequences and shame

0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:58.000
<v Speaker 4>that I think have broken down and really profound and

0:15:58.080 --> 0:15:59.600
<v Speaker 4>lasting ways in the US.

0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:03.120
<v Speaker 3>Thank you so much for coming on. This is really

0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:04.160
<v Speaker 3>really interesting.

0:16:04.480 --> 0:16:05.240
<v Speaker 4>That's my pleasure.

0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:12.240
<v Speaker 1>Spring is here and I bet you are trying to

0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:15.880
<v Speaker 1>look fashionable, So why not pick up some fashionable all

0:16:15.960 --> 0:16:20.640
<v Speaker 1>new Fast Politics merchandise. We just opened a news store

0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:25.200
<v Speaker 1>with all new designs just for you. Get t shirts, hoodies, hats,

0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:30.520
<v Speaker 1>and top bags. To grab some, head to fastpolitics dot com.

0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:34.320
<v Speaker 2>David Wallace Wells is the author of The Uninhabitable Earth

0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 2>and a writer at the New York Times.

0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:38.520
<v Speaker 3>Welcome back to Fast Politics, David Wells.

0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:40.480
<v Speaker 5>Wells, really good to be here to to talk to you.

0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:44.320
<v Speaker 1>So you are one of my few favorite climate people

0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:48.320
<v Speaker 1>and we're going to go way back. Well, first, I

0:16:48.360 --> 0:16:51.120
<v Speaker 1>want you to talk a little bit about John Carey

0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:55.040
<v Speaker 1>because that is really disturbing that John Carrey was the

0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:59.320
<v Speaker 1>top climate diplomat and he feels somewhat disappointed.

0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:01.080
<v Speaker 3>So can you talk a little bit about that.

0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:06.040
<v Speaker 5>Well, he was basically running Joe Biden's international climate outreach

0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:08.560
<v Speaker 5>for the whole first term. He is kind of a

0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:11.879
<v Speaker 5>weird position, kind of climate diplomatic that never existed before.

0:17:11.920 --> 0:17:14.000
<v Speaker 5>But you know, this is a brave new world we're

0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:17.120
<v Speaker 5>living in, and he was leading the charge and his main,

0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:20.200
<v Speaker 5>you know, focus was in trying to set up these

0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:27.040
<v Speaker 5>financing deals that would allow developing countries to afford to

0:17:27.280 --> 0:17:30.200
<v Speaker 5>decarbonize by building out essentially by building out wind and solar,

0:17:30.240 --> 0:17:32.400
<v Speaker 5>but other stuff too, And this is something I think

0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:34.760
<v Speaker 5>many people in the US really don't appreciate. Like wind

0:17:34.760 --> 0:17:37.640
<v Speaker 5>in solar is now cheaper on an average basis than

0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:40.320
<v Speaker 5>dirty energy just about everywhere in the world. But the

0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:43.040
<v Speaker 5>cost of capital, how much it cost to borrow money

0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:45.280
<v Speaker 5>to build one of these solar farms out or to

0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:47.480
<v Speaker 5>build out a wind farm. The cost of capital is

0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:49.840
<v Speaker 5>like four times as high in the developing world as

0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:52.000
<v Speaker 5>of this in the rich world, which means that the

0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:56.600
<v Speaker 5>actual expense attached to a particular renewable project is much

0:17:56.680 --> 0:17:59.320
<v Speaker 5>much higher for the poor than it is for the rich.

0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:01.560
<v Speaker 5>And that's for a lot of reasons, you know. But

0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:04.000
<v Speaker 5>it's a huge problem that needs to be solved if

0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:07.040
<v Speaker 5>we want the global South to, as they finally get

0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:11.280
<v Speaker 5>onto the electric grid and bring energy to their impoverished citizens,

0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:13.320
<v Speaker 5>do it in a clean rather than a dirty way.

0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:16.120
<v Speaker 5>And Kerrie was trying to do that with this kind

0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:20.560
<v Speaker 5>of fancy set of financial instruments called jet peas, where

0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:23.040
<v Speaker 5>basically there's like a little bit of philanthropic money put

0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:26.400
<v Speaker 5>out that then sort of tells the private money, it's

0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:28.440
<v Speaker 5>going to be safe to invest here, Like if there's

0:18:28.480 --> 0:18:31.760
<v Speaker 5>this philanthropic money here, you can actually lend these countries

0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:34.800
<v Speaker 5>the money they need to build out their green energy sources.

0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:37.280
<v Speaker 5>And they did it to much fanfare in a bunch

0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:40.000
<v Speaker 5>of countries around the world over the last five years,

0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:43.359
<v Speaker 5>and basically, in no case did it actually work out, Like,

0:18:43.400 --> 0:18:46.280
<v Speaker 5>in no case did it actually deliver a large scale

0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:49.760
<v Speaker 5>private investment spending spree that would allow any of the

0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:53.600
<v Speaker 5>countries to dramatically change their course on emissions. And so

0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:57.280
<v Speaker 5>it was, you know, on some level, like a perfect neoliberal,

0:18:57.359 --> 0:19:00.080
<v Speaker 5>technocratic approach to the problem of poor countries not being

0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:02.640
<v Speaker 5>able to afford the money they need to build out

0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:06.000
<v Speaker 5>green energy. It seemed in theory at the whiteboard in

0:19:06.040 --> 0:19:09.240
<v Speaker 5>a conference room, you know, in the McKenzie coffee clatch

0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:10.919
<v Speaker 5>or whatever, it seemed like it would be a perfect

0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:14.120
<v Speaker 5>solution to this problem. And it just hasn't yet worked.

0:19:14.160 --> 0:19:16.119
<v Speaker 5>Maybe it'll work in the future, but it has absolutely

0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:19.000
<v Speaker 5>not worked to this point, which means that his big

0:19:19.119 --> 0:19:23.720
<v Speaker 5>bet has been basically a failure. As he's exiting this office,

0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:26.560
<v Speaker 5>he's being replaced by Avesta. He's talking also a lot

0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:29.600
<v Speaker 5>more openly about the villainy of the oil and gas

0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:32.120
<v Speaker 5>companies and how much they're standing in the way, which

0:19:32.160 --> 0:19:33.119
<v Speaker 5>is a whole other part of the.

0:19:33.119 --> 0:19:35.800
<v Speaker 1>Saga, Which is good that he's doing that, because they

0:19:35.880 --> 0:19:39.199
<v Speaker 1>fucking suck. Yeah, but not to put too fine a

0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:40.440
<v Speaker 1>point on it, obviously.

0:19:40.600 --> 0:19:42.359
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, No, you can't overstate they have any of the

0:19:42.400 --> 0:19:44.840
<v Speaker 5>oil and gas companies. Looking in the really big picture,

0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:47.239
<v Speaker 5>we're in a much better place than we were, you know,

0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:49.960
<v Speaker 5>three four or five years ago. I'm climbing in terms

0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:52.280
<v Speaker 5>of rolling out renewables all around the world. We keep

0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:54.760
<v Speaker 5>being surprised at how fast it's going, but it's just

0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:56.480
<v Speaker 5>going much much faster in the rich parts of the

0:19:56.520 --> 0:19:58.840
<v Speaker 5>world than in the poor. And if we really want

0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:02.040
<v Speaker 5>to salvage some whole of stabilizing the temperature at a

0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:06.240
<v Speaker 5>relatively comfortable level for the future generations, we kind of

0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:08.800
<v Speaker 5>need to solve that problem for the global south very fast,

0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:10.480
<v Speaker 5>and we don't have a good toolkit at the moment

0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:10.959
<v Speaker 5>to do so.

0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:13.199
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's hard to look at where we are on

0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:18.360
<v Speaker 1>climate and not despair, but there are reasons not to despair, right.

0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:21.520
<v Speaker 5>It's sort of both stories at once, Like the rollout

0:20:21.520 --> 0:20:25.600
<v Speaker 5>of renewable energy is absolutely astonishing. It's much faster than

0:20:25.840 --> 0:20:28.680
<v Speaker 5>almost every forecast said was even possible just a few

0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:30.800
<v Speaker 5>years ago. So we're building out much more of the

0:20:30.840 --> 0:20:34.720
<v Speaker 5>good stuff, much faster than anybody predicted. We're not yet

0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:37.119
<v Speaker 5>drawing down the dirty stuff, and that's the problem. We

0:20:37.119 --> 0:20:39.320
<v Speaker 5>can keep at wind and solar, but so long as

0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:42.120
<v Speaker 5>we're continuing to burn oil and gas and coal, we're

0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:44.040
<v Speaker 5>still doing more damage every year than we've ever done

0:20:44.080 --> 0:20:46.000
<v Speaker 5>in the entire history of the planet. Most of the

0:20:46.040 --> 0:20:48.440
<v Speaker 5>analysis says that we're about to hit a turning point there.

0:20:48.480 --> 0:20:50.159
<v Speaker 5>Maybe it'll be five years from now, maybe it'll be

0:20:50.280 --> 0:20:52.600
<v Speaker 5>this year, and we'll have reached a peak. I think

0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:54.240
<v Speaker 5>it's kind of like, you know, I'll trust that when

0:20:54.280 --> 0:20:56.520
<v Speaker 5>I see it, but it's certainly better than everybody's saying.

0:20:56.520 --> 0:20:58.440
<v Speaker 5>We're nowhere near a peak. The problem is that from

0:20:58.480 --> 0:20:59.679
<v Speaker 5>the peak, we have to get all the way down

0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:02.280
<v Speaker 5>from the highest level of emissions ever recorded all the

0:21:02.280 --> 0:21:04.720
<v Speaker 5>way down to zero, ideally in the space of just

0:21:04.760 --> 0:21:06.919
<v Speaker 5>a couple of decades, and however long it takes. We

0:21:06.920 --> 0:21:08.560
<v Speaker 5>need to get all the way to zero, not just

0:21:08.760 --> 0:21:12.200
<v Speaker 5>halfway or recorders of the way. They're to stabilize temperatures

0:21:12.240 --> 0:21:14.360
<v Speaker 5>at any level. So I think there's you know, there's

0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:16.720
<v Speaker 5>a there's a hopeful story, and there's a really bleak,

0:21:16.800 --> 0:21:19.720
<v Speaker 5>depressing story, and they're both kind of happening at once.

0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:22.760
<v Speaker 5>And one of the reasons this, you know, climate is

0:21:22.800 --> 0:21:24.280
<v Speaker 5>a little bit hard to wrap your head around, is

0:21:24.280 --> 0:21:26.760
<v Speaker 5>that those are some pretty big contradictions to maintain.

0:21:27.240 --> 0:21:30.560
<v Speaker 1>Yes, true, talk to me about China, and then we're

0:21:30.600 --> 0:21:33.040
<v Speaker 1>going to talk about something else that makes me depressed.

0:21:33.280 --> 0:21:36.800
<v Speaker 5>Kina is in certain ways a green miracle. They in

0:21:36.840 --> 0:21:40.199
<v Speaker 5>the last year have installed more solar power than the

0:21:40.359 --> 0:21:42.800
<v Speaker 5>entire rest of the world put together. That's inside China.

0:21:42.960 --> 0:21:45.680
<v Speaker 5>They've installed sixty percent of all of the wind power

0:21:45.720 --> 0:21:48.400
<v Speaker 5>that's been installed anywhere in the world. And they are

0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:55.679
<v Speaker 5>absolutely commanding the entire green energy industrial production economy for

0:21:55.760 --> 0:21:57.960
<v Speaker 5>the whole world, which is to say, they are literally

0:21:57.960 --> 0:22:01.040
<v Speaker 5>producing five times as many solar pans in China than

0:22:01.080 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 5>the entire rest of the world put together. They're producing

0:22:03.640 --> 0:22:06.160
<v Speaker 5>so much battery power right now that they could doubly

0:22:06.200 --> 0:22:09.080
<v Speaker 5>supply the world's demand every year. They are doing this

0:22:09.160 --> 0:22:11.520
<v Speaker 5>in almost every sector. The big story over the last

0:22:11.520 --> 0:22:14.080
<v Speaker 5>few months has been, you know, Joe Biden instituting a

0:22:14.119 --> 0:22:16.480
<v Speaker 5>tariff on a lot of these technologies, but most kind

0:22:16.480 --> 0:22:20.120
<v Speaker 5>of conspicuously on evs. On the EV's, China has come

0:22:20.160 --> 0:22:22.800
<v Speaker 5>out of absolutely nowhere. Like five years ago, they were

0:22:22.800 --> 0:22:25.840
<v Speaker 5>hardly producing EV's, they were not exporting any EV's, and

0:22:25.880 --> 0:22:28.280
<v Speaker 5>they've since become over the last five years, the world's

0:22:28.320 --> 0:22:31.639
<v Speaker 5>largest exporter of all cars, in part because of the

0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:34.600
<v Speaker 5>power of electric vehicles, which they are now producing cars

0:22:34.600 --> 0:22:38.280
<v Speaker 5>that can drive at ranges considerably longer than any car

0:22:38.359 --> 0:22:40.919
<v Speaker 5>on the market in the United States or Europe for

0:22:41.160 --> 0:22:44.199
<v Speaker 5>something like ten thousand dollars per car. And that is

0:22:44.600 --> 0:22:49.399
<v Speaker 5>from a climate perspectives alone, an incredible miracle which opens

0:22:49.480 --> 0:22:54.160
<v Speaker 5>up whole new possibilities for how quickly we could decarbonize transportation. Unfortunately,

0:22:54.400 --> 0:22:57.320
<v Speaker 5>it also looks like a potentially mortal threat to the

0:22:57.400 --> 0:23:00.720
<v Speaker 5>European and car industries, and so both of those areas

0:23:00.760 --> 0:23:03.600
<v Speaker 5>are rather than you know, taking the win on climate,

0:23:03.640 --> 0:23:06.880
<v Speaker 5>they're trying to go to war for their industrial sectors,

0:23:06.920 --> 0:23:09.200
<v Speaker 5>which maybe they need to do, but you know it's

0:23:09.240 --> 0:23:11.359
<v Speaker 5>going to come at a climate cost too, because if

0:23:11.359 --> 0:23:13.040
<v Speaker 5>Americans are going to have to pay three times as

0:23:13.119 --> 0:23:16.080
<v Speaker 5>much per EV and then almost anywhere else in the world.

0:23:16.119 --> 0:23:18.320
<v Speaker 5>We're probably going to be buying many fewer evs than

0:23:18.359 --> 0:23:18.960
<v Speaker 5>other countries.

0:23:19.200 --> 0:23:22.679
<v Speaker 1>I would like to have a bright spot here. Enjoy

0:23:22.880 --> 0:23:26.719
<v Speaker 1>one of the very few bright spots. Bad for Elon

0:23:26.880 --> 0:23:30.679
<v Speaker 1>mosk or as I call him, Elon Marsh Right.

0:23:30.680 --> 0:23:32.720
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I think you know, bu Id is neck and

0:23:32.800 --> 0:23:35.399
<v Speaker 5>neck in a couple of recent quarters. They've been ahead

0:23:35.400 --> 0:23:38.199
<v Speaker 5>of Tesla as the world's biggest manufacturer of ev is,

0:23:38.320 --> 0:23:41.480
<v Speaker 5>and I think they're destined to surpass Tesla. He just

0:23:41.640 --> 0:23:43.280
<v Speaker 5>took home what was it, fifty billion dollars?

0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:46.160
<v Speaker 3>Would cry, yeah, now fuck them.

0:23:46.280 --> 0:23:48.359
<v Speaker 5>But you know, I think a few years ago, especially

0:23:48.440 --> 0:23:51.600
<v Speaker 5>the stock price of Tesla, suggested that investors were betting

0:23:51.640 --> 0:23:54.680
<v Speaker 5>that the entire global ev market would be supplied by Tesla,

0:23:55.000 --> 0:23:57.960
<v Speaker 5>And now it seems vanishingly unlikely that that will be

0:23:58.000 --> 0:24:00.280
<v Speaker 5>the case, in part because you know, the world full

0:24:00.280 --> 0:24:02.560
<v Speaker 5>of many people who can't afford fifty thousand dollars cars,

0:24:02.720 --> 0:24:05.440
<v Speaker 5>and the Chinese automakers are at the moment at least

0:24:05.480 --> 0:24:07.720
<v Speaker 5>doing much much better. It's applying the cheap versions.

0:24:08.040 --> 0:24:13.080
<v Speaker 1>Can you explain to us why oil companies their new

0:24:13.119 --> 0:24:16.480
<v Speaker 1>thing is like this pivot to like both and yes,

0:24:16.600 --> 0:24:18.600
<v Speaker 1>you need green, but you also need oil.

0:24:18.720 --> 0:24:20.720
<v Speaker 3>But you really don't fucking need oil.

0:24:20.880 --> 0:24:23.919
<v Speaker 1>This is just bullshit to try to keep them alive, right,

0:24:24.359 --> 0:24:25.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, over.

0:24:24.960 --> 0:24:28.159
<v Speaker 5>The next ten twelve years, like probably we're going to

0:24:28.280 --> 0:24:30.600
<v Speaker 5>need a bunch more oil because the cars on the

0:24:30.680 --> 0:24:33.520
<v Speaker 5>road are not going to be replaced immediately. Maybe that'll

0:24:33.560 --> 0:24:36.120
<v Speaker 5>even stretch out to twenty years. But we expect that

0:24:36.160 --> 0:24:39.280
<v Speaker 5>we've probably already passed peak global demand for oil. So

0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:42.119
<v Speaker 5>the demand is going to decrease over the next few decades,

0:24:42.359 --> 0:24:44.360
<v Speaker 5>but it won't be zero anytime soon, because like someone

0:24:44.400 --> 0:24:45.840
<v Speaker 5>who bought a car two years ago is still going

0:24:45.880 --> 0:24:47.520
<v Speaker 5>to be driving it ten years from now.

0:24:47.520 --> 0:24:49.440
<v Speaker 3>But it's going to be a lot lower.

0:24:49.720 --> 0:24:52.040
<v Speaker 5>It depends on the country, yeah, I mean certain countries

0:24:52.040 --> 0:24:54.159
<v Speaker 5>are going to turn over their their fleet very quickly,

0:24:54.160 --> 0:24:55.919
<v Speaker 5>and I think the US is probably going to be

0:24:56.240 --> 0:24:59.000
<v Speaker 5>you know, probably fifteen or twenty years even until the

0:24:59.080 --> 0:25:01.680
<v Speaker 5>vast majority or but we're heading in that direction. You know.

0:25:01.720 --> 0:25:05.119
<v Speaker 5>The argument for coal and gas are a little bit different.

0:25:05.200 --> 0:25:08.000
<v Speaker 5>You know, coal I basically think is not economical anywhere

0:25:08.000 --> 0:25:11.320
<v Speaker 5>and really is heading for a pretty rapid phase out.

0:25:11.480 --> 0:25:14.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean that was true even ten years ago. It's

0:25:14.280 --> 0:25:16.000
<v Speaker 1>just so expensive all right.

0:25:16.119 --> 0:25:18.600
<v Speaker 5>People have different views about gas, as you know, in

0:25:18.720 --> 0:25:21.439
<v Speaker 5>terms of electricity generation and stabilizing the grid. Personally, I

0:25:21.480 --> 0:25:23.679
<v Speaker 5>think there are a lot of new technologies coming on

0:25:23.720 --> 0:25:26.000
<v Speaker 5>that will allow wind and solar to be much more

0:25:26.040 --> 0:25:28.359
<v Speaker 5>reliable than they have been in the past. Battery storage

0:25:28.359 --> 0:25:29.920
<v Speaker 5>is getting a lot better, We're going to be doing

0:25:29.920 --> 0:25:32.120
<v Speaker 5>a lot with geo thermal. The US is actually making

0:25:32.160 --> 0:25:34.240
<v Speaker 5>a huge investment in nuclear. All of these things are

0:25:34.240 --> 0:25:36.960
<v Speaker 5>going to be able to provide what's called the baseload dower,

0:25:37.320 --> 0:25:39.760
<v Speaker 5>onto which we could stack the kind of intermitt and

0:25:39.960 --> 0:25:42.800
<v Speaker 5>relatively less reliable wind and solar stuff and get all

0:25:42.800 --> 0:25:44.760
<v Speaker 5>the way to our energy needs. So I personally, I

0:25:44.760 --> 0:25:46.520
<v Speaker 5>don't think there's much need for ad natural gas, but

0:25:46.520 --> 0:25:48.879
<v Speaker 5>there's still some dispute over that. The answer to your

0:25:48.880 --> 0:25:51.480
<v Speaker 5>big question that why do oil companies exist is because

0:25:51.520 --> 0:25:53.359
<v Speaker 5>oil is insanely profitable.

0:25:53.520 --> 0:25:53.600
<v Speaker 4>You know.

0:25:53.640 --> 0:25:55.040
<v Speaker 5>A few years ago, I remember I was on a

0:25:55.080 --> 0:25:56.959
<v Speaker 5>panel with an energy economist who is like, you look

0:25:57.000 --> 0:25:58.960
<v Speaker 5>at a barrel of oil, it's like eighty to ninety

0:25:59.000 --> 0:26:02.679
<v Speaker 5>percent profit. Still roughly the case today. These are companies that,

0:26:02.760 --> 0:26:06.040
<v Speaker 5>even in a moment of systemic decline, as people are

0:26:06.040 --> 0:26:09.320
<v Speaker 5>turning away from their product. They are literally producing record

0:26:09.359 --> 0:26:12.000
<v Speaker 5>profits year after year after year. This has been a

0:26:12.000 --> 0:26:14.600
<v Speaker 5>few straight years of record profits. I don't think that's

0:26:14.600 --> 0:26:17.120
<v Speaker 5>going to last for fifty years. I hope it doesn't

0:26:17.160 --> 0:26:19.399
<v Speaker 5>last for thirty years. But these are not that are

0:26:19.440 --> 0:26:22.640
<v Speaker 5>making decisions on thirty year horizons to making decisions up

0:26:22.760 --> 0:26:24.800
<v Speaker 5>one to five year horizons, and on that horizon it

0:26:24.840 --> 0:26:28.119
<v Speaker 5>remains an incredibly lucrative business. There was a book that

0:26:28.160 --> 0:26:31.320
<v Speaker 5>came out about six months ago arguing that we've wrongly

0:26:31.359 --> 0:26:34.000
<v Speaker 5>focused in thinking about climate in general, on the price

0:26:34.040 --> 0:26:36.320
<v Speaker 5>of renewables, which are now really low, rather than the

0:26:36.400 --> 0:26:39.119
<v Speaker 5>question of profit, and renewables are not generating nearly as

0:26:39.160 --> 0:26:42.040
<v Speaker 5>much profit than oil, And if you switch your lens

0:26:42.080 --> 0:26:44.960
<v Speaker 5>from thinking about price, where renewables have already basically won,

0:26:45.240 --> 0:26:47.359
<v Speaker 5>to thinking about profit, it puts you in a space

0:26:47.560 --> 0:26:49.920
<v Speaker 5>of really worrying about just how quickly this transition will

0:26:49.920 --> 0:26:53.560
<v Speaker 5>happen and how desperately the oil and gas businesses will

0:26:53.560 --> 0:26:56.040
<v Speaker 5>fight to keep it from going going forward as fast

0:26:56.080 --> 0:26:57.000
<v Speaker 5>as it otherwise should.

0:26:57.280 --> 0:26:59.200
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I hate for them to have a tough time.

0:27:00.880 --> 0:27:04.359
<v Speaker 1>But one of the things that Trump promised them, which

0:27:04.400 --> 0:27:09.760
<v Speaker 1>I think is really relevant and is very trumpy is

0:27:09.840 --> 0:27:13.880
<v Speaker 1>He said, if you support me, I will make it

0:27:14.280 --> 0:27:17.159
<v Speaker 1>so there'll be no regulation and you can just fucking

0:27:17.280 --> 0:27:19.479
<v Speaker 1>rape the earth as much as you want. Not to

0:27:19.560 --> 0:27:21.399
<v Speaker 1>put too fine a point on it.

0:27:21.400 --> 0:27:23.920
<v Speaker 5>It was one of the more naked quid pro quo

0:27:24.200 --> 0:27:28.280
<v Speaker 5>offers in American political history. He said, a room of

0:27:28.440 --> 0:27:30.879
<v Speaker 5>assembled oil and gas people, if you raise me a

0:27:30.920 --> 0:27:33.359
<v Speaker 5>billion dollars, I will write you a blank check in return.

0:27:33.720 --> 0:27:36.000
<v Speaker 5>And whoever was in that room, and whatever the size

0:27:36.040 --> 0:27:38.879
<v Speaker 5>of the price tag you gave. That is an ugly,

0:27:39.040 --> 0:27:42.840
<v Speaker 5>ugly political gesture that almost every politician anywhere in America

0:27:42.840 --> 0:27:44.640
<v Speaker 5>at any other point in history would have known better

0:27:44.680 --> 0:27:46.960
<v Speaker 5>than to say, oh loud. But Trump obviously did not.

0:27:47.359 --> 0:27:49.800
<v Speaker 5>Now exactly what he's capable of doing in a second

0:27:49.880 --> 0:27:52.800
<v Speaker 5>term year. I think is it's a complicated and interesting

0:27:52.880 --> 0:27:56.840
<v Speaker 5>question because so much of the IRA money and so

0:27:56.960 --> 0:28:00.480
<v Speaker 5>much private money chasing those tax incentives is going into

0:28:00.560 --> 0:28:03.920
<v Speaker 5>red districts, and to some large degree, red states, which

0:28:03.920 --> 0:28:06.919
<v Speaker 5>are often now actually America's clean energy leaders. You know,

0:28:06.960 --> 0:28:10.720
<v Speaker 5>North Dakota I think has the highest renewable electricity anywhere

0:28:10.720 --> 0:28:13.000
<v Speaker 5>in the country. Texas is just building out wind and

0:28:13.080 --> 0:28:16.040
<v Speaker 5>solar like Gangbusters, and In fact, last year there was

0:28:16.040 --> 0:28:18.040
<v Speaker 5>an effort in that to try to decap that process

0:28:18.080 --> 0:28:20.879
<v Speaker 5>in Texas, and it failed because some Republicans said to

0:28:20.880 --> 0:28:23.119
<v Speaker 5>some other Republicans, hang on, we don't want to like

0:28:23.280 --> 0:28:26.920
<v Speaker 5>actually raise the electricity bills of our customers and make

0:28:27.000 --> 0:28:29.159
<v Speaker 5>it give put them at higher risk of blackouts just

0:28:29.200 --> 0:28:30.679
<v Speaker 5>for the sake of the oil and gas business. If

0:28:30.720 --> 0:28:32.639
<v Speaker 5>renewables are going to be helping us and helping our

0:28:32.680 --> 0:28:35.040
<v Speaker 5>citizens and our voters, let's not stand in the way.

0:28:35.160 --> 0:28:37.520
<v Speaker 5>And that is from a market perspective, the state of

0:28:37.560 --> 0:28:40.760
<v Speaker 5>play generally, like, if we do not interfere in this market,

0:28:40.880 --> 0:28:44.120
<v Speaker 5>renewables will win. They may not win quite as fast

0:28:44.160 --> 0:28:46.120
<v Speaker 5>as I might like, but they are going to win.

0:28:46.280 --> 0:28:48.280
<v Speaker 5>It is actually the oil and gas business which is

0:28:48.320 --> 0:28:52.520
<v Speaker 5>demanding interventions to prevent process. And that is you know,

0:28:52.560 --> 0:28:56.120
<v Speaker 5>that means that it's not just Trump withdrawing environmental protections

0:28:56.120 --> 0:28:59.560
<v Speaker 5>that that's going to let loose an oil and gas bonanza.

0:28:59.680 --> 0:29:02.440
<v Speaker 5>Primary He'll be slow walking stuff that would help the

0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:06.000
<v Speaker 5>green stuff proceed. So that means not doing anything about permitting,

0:29:06.320 --> 0:29:08.880
<v Speaker 5>not doing anything about all of the local opposition to

0:29:09.000 --> 0:29:11.640
<v Speaker 5>renewable energy, and just sort of letting that stand as

0:29:11.680 --> 0:29:15.200
<v Speaker 5>a serious obstacle to new build out, and probably it

0:29:15.320 --> 0:29:17.640
<v Speaker 5>means that the US in a second Trump term, given

0:29:17.640 --> 0:29:20.800
<v Speaker 5>a second Trump term, would be decarbonizing considerably less fast

0:29:20.960 --> 0:29:23.719
<v Speaker 5>than they would second Biden term. But I actually think that,

0:29:24.000 --> 0:29:27.160
<v Speaker 5>you know, the market forces are considerably more powerful than

0:29:27.200 --> 0:29:31.240
<v Speaker 5>a sort of crude political partisan logic would make you think.

0:29:31.400 --> 0:29:33.320
<v Speaker 5>I think that, you know, America is, like everywhere else

0:29:33.320 --> 0:29:35.440
<v Speaker 5>in the world, is heading towards clean energy. The question

0:29:35.520 --> 0:29:37.720
<v Speaker 5>is not if it's just when you know, the best

0:29:37.760 --> 0:29:39.480
<v Speaker 5>thing that Trump could do for oil and gas is

0:29:39.520 --> 0:29:41.760
<v Speaker 5>not to stop that revolution, it's just to slow it.

0:29:41.880 --> 0:29:44.360
<v Speaker 5>And exactly how capable he is about given how capable

0:29:44.400 --> 0:29:47.480
<v Speaker 5>he is doing anything, is you know, a huge open question.

0:29:47.720 --> 0:29:47.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:29:48.040 --> 0:29:50.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I'm not going to take that to the bank,

0:29:50.200 --> 0:29:53.400
<v Speaker 1>because that fucking guy, he's got smart people trying to

0:29:53.440 --> 0:29:55.960
<v Speaker 1>explain to him how to do stuff now in a

0:29:56.000 --> 0:29:57.240
<v Speaker 1>way that he didn't before.

0:29:57.520 --> 0:30:00.840
<v Speaker 5>The Heritage Foundation Project twenty twenty five stuff really ugly

0:30:00.880 --> 0:30:03.160
<v Speaker 5>and scary on climate. It's really ugly and scary in

0:30:03.200 --> 0:30:06.120
<v Speaker 5>every category. But the question is whether that will actually

0:30:06.120 --> 0:30:08.480
<v Speaker 5>be the playbook that is put into place, or whether

0:30:08.520 --> 0:30:10.440
<v Speaker 5>Trump governs a lot more like you did in the

0:30:10.480 --> 0:30:13.840
<v Speaker 5>first term, you know, running around as a desperate, resentful

0:30:14.040 --> 0:30:16.560
<v Speaker 5>score settler. You know, my guess is it's some mix

0:30:16.600 --> 0:30:18.240
<v Speaker 5>of both. Even as I think you're wise to say

0:30:18.240 --> 0:30:20.040
<v Speaker 5>I'm not going to take my David Well as well

0:30:20.040 --> 0:30:22.280
<v Speaker 5>as those reassurances to the bank, I also wouldn't take

0:30:22.280 --> 0:30:24.400
<v Speaker 5>the Project twenty twenty five playbook to the bank as

0:30:24.400 --> 0:30:25.280
<v Speaker 5>a guarantee.

0:30:25.440 --> 0:30:28.320
<v Speaker 1>What I think the top line on the twenty twenty

0:30:28.320 --> 0:30:31.320
<v Speaker 1>five stuff is that the Heritage Foundation has been taken

0:30:31.360 --> 0:30:33.080
<v Speaker 1>over by complete lunatics.

0:30:33.280 --> 0:30:35.240
<v Speaker 5>Well, the whole party has, really Yeah.

0:30:35.040 --> 0:30:37.520
<v Speaker 1>But the Heritage used to be like the last fashion

0:30:37.560 --> 0:30:39.800
<v Speaker 1>of normal in that party, and that is no more

0:30:39.920 --> 0:30:40.600
<v Speaker 1>the case.

0:30:40.800 --> 0:30:42.120
<v Speaker 5>Of the future we're staring down.

0:30:42.600 --> 0:30:46.440
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, would you talk for a minute about like, there

0:30:46.480 --> 0:30:48.160
<v Speaker 1>are a lot of people who listen to this podcast

0:30:48.200 --> 0:30:52.680
<v Speaker 1>who just would like to have some sort of concrete

0:30:52.720 --> 0:30:55.760
<v Speaker 1>stuff they should be doing when it comes to climate.

0:30:56.280 --> 0:30:58.760
<v Speaker 5>Well, I mean, honestly, heading into an election season, I

0:30:58.800 --> 0:31:01.720
<v Speaker 5>think voting and campaigning is the most important thing that

0:31:01.760 --> 0:31:05.040
<v Speaker 5>we can do in America at an individual level. If

0:31:05.080 --> 0:31:07.560
<v Speaker 5>you want to shrink your carbon footprint, if you want

0:31:07.640 --> 0:31:09.600
<v Speaker 5>to live within your values and think of yourself as

0:31:09.600 --> 0:31:12.840
<v Speaker 5>a climate person who is doing right by the future

0:31:12.840 --> 0:31:14.720
<v Speaker 5>of the planet. The main things that you can do

0:31:14.760 --> 0:31:19.719
<v Speaker 5>to reduce your carbon footprint are fly commercial, I mean

0:31:19.840 --> 0:31:22.920
<v Speaker 5>I'm not fly honestly, not fly fly yeah, not fly

0:31:23.520 --> 0:31:26.360
<v Speaker 5>driving ev if you can, and not eat red meat.

0:31:26.480 --> 0:31:29.480
<v Speaker 5>And those are really like by far the biggest contributors

0:31:29.520 --> 0:31:33.560
<v Speaker 5>to the carbon footprints of most relatively well off Americans.

0:31:33.920 --> 0:31:37.080
<v Speaker 5>You can also do carbon offsets for your fly to

0:31:37.120 --> 0:31:40.320
<v Speaker 5>some extent for your cars too, but they're pretty unreliable.

0:31:40.400 --> 0:31:42.680
<v Speaker 5>So like, I do them when I fly, but I

0:31:42.720 --> 0:31:45.280
<v Speaker 5>also know that like they don't actually cover my.

0:31:45.240 --> 0:31:47.960
<v Speaker 3>Guilt, but they make you feel a little better, a.

0:31:47.920 --> 0:31:50.080
<v Speaker 5>Little bit better. And there are bees and worst ones

0:31:50.120 --> 0:31:51.520
<v Speaker 5>that you know you can you can get into the

0:31:51.520 --> 0:31:53.760
<v Speaker 5>research on that as much as you like or not

0:31:53.840 --> 0:31:56.200
<v Speaker 5>as much as you like. These days, you in most

0:31:56.200 --> 0:31:58.400
<v Speaker 5>airlines do have like a little button when you're checking

0:31:58.400 --> 0:31:59.640
<v Speaker 5>out that say if you know, if you'd like to

0:31:59.640 --> 0:32:02.120
<v Speaker 5>offset the carbon cost of this, click here, But most

0:32:02.120 --> 0:32:04.760
<v Speaker 5>of those are pretty unreliable. That's a bit like if

0:32:04.760 --> 0:32:06.680
<v Speaker 5>you're worrying about what you're doing, the things that you

0:32:06.680 --> 0:32:09.640
<v Speaker 5>can that you should focus on our air travel, internal

0:32:09.680 --> 0:32:12.280
<v Speaker 5>combustion engine vehicle driving, and red meat.

0:32:12.280 --> 0:32:15.720
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and also not drinking bottled water right or now?

0:32:15.880 --> 0:32:16.800
<v Speaker 1>Is that a rounding era?

0:32:16.960 --> 0:32:18.880
<v Speaker 3>I don't know. Tell me I need to now.

0:32:19.040 --> 0:32:21.840
<v Speaker 5>You know, I've gotten considerably more worried about plastic pollution

0:32:21.880 --> 0:32:23.520
<v Speaker 5>over the last couple of years. When I when I

0:32:23.560 --> 0:32:25.600
<v Speaker 5>wrote my book five years ago or so, I actually

0:32:25.640 --> 0:32:27.280
<v Speaker 5>had a few lines in there that called it just

0:32:27.320 --> 0:32:29.680
<v Speaker 5>like a red herring and a distraction. But it's become

0:32:29.760 --> 0:32:31.760
<v Speaker 5>much more central to the way that I think about

0:32:31.840 --> 0:32:36.000
<v Speaker 5>how we're despoiling the planet. We now see microplastics in

0:32:36.160 --> 0:32:39.360
<v Speaker 5>freshly fallen Arctic snow. We found them in the deepest

0:32:39.400 --> 0:32:41.840
<v Speaker 5>depths of the Mariana Trench, in you know, the deepest

0:32:41.840 --> 0:32:44.440
<v Speaker 5>parts of the ocean. They actually got there before human

0:32:44.440 --> 0:32:47.560
<v Speaker 5>explorers got there. We find them in you know, in

0:32:47.640 --> 0:32:52.520
<v Speaker 5>mother's milk, on the inside of placentas, in sperm, in testicles.

0:32:52.560 --> 0:32:55.160
<v Speaker 5>It's like everywhere. If you cut open your arm, there

0:32:55.160 --> 0:32:56.880
<v Speaker 5>would be lots of microplastics there.

0:32:57.120 --> 0:32:57.200
<v Speaker 4>No.

0:32:57.440 --> 0:33:00.080
<v Speaker 5>I know, you know, we don't know exactly what they're

0:33:00.120 --> 0:33:01.560
<v Speaker 5>doing to us. I think, you know, the fact that

0:33:01.600 --> 0:33:04.680
<v Speaker 5>we're not all immediately dropping answer suggests that, you know,

0:33:04.720 --> 0:33:08.280
<v Speaker 5>it's not like an apocalyptic, you know, extinction kind of event.

0:33:08.360 --> 0:33:11.120
<v Speaker 5>But it is also quite strange to take seriously the

0:33:11.160 --> 0:33:13.920
<v Speaker 5>idea that none of us, anywhere on the planet are

0:33:14.000 --> 0:33:17.080
<v Speaker 5>avoiding this kind of contamination. It's pretty mind bending to

0:33:17.080 --> 0:33:19.440
<v Speaker 5>try to reckon with what it means for our sense

0:33:19.440 --> 0:33:22.000
<v Speaker 5>of autonomy that we are all of us passing through

0:33:22.280 --> 0:33:25.360
<v Speaker 5>a contagion field of pollution, navigating our way through that,

0:33:25.520 --> 0:33:27.440
<v Speaker 5>thinking we are in control of our lives, but actually

0:33:27.480 --> 0:33:30.360
<v Speaker 5>having many aspects of our health, cognitive performance, you know,

0:33:30.440 --> 0:33:34.360
<v Speaker 5>economic well being determined by these forces of pollution which

0:33:34.360 --> 0:33:37.960
<v Speaker 5>are well beyond our individual control. And I worry a

0:33:38.000 --> 0:33:41.680
<v Speaker 5>lot about, you know, the contribution of plastics to that problem.

0:33:41.840 --> 0:33:43.560
<v Speaker 5>We'll see the next five or ten years. I think

0:33:43.560 --> 0:33:45.040
<v Speaker 5>you're going to tell us a lot in the science,

0:33:45.160 --> 0:33:46.560
<v Speaker 5>but at the moment, I would just say I would

0:33:46.640 --> 0:33:48.960
<v Speaker 5>rather be living on a planet where every single living

0:33:49.000 --> 0:33:52.160
<v Speaker 5>being was not already contaminated by microplastics than the one

0:33:52.160 --> 0:33:54.239
<v Speaker 5>in which when we're living on now, where every one

0:33:54.320 --> 0:33:57.240
<v Speaker 5>of us is, you know, to our core, already a

0:33:57.320 --> 0:33:59.640
<v Speaker 5>kind of a hybrid being human and pollution of the

0:33:59.680 --> 0:34:00.080
<v Speaker 5>same time.

0:34:00.120 --> 0:34:03.960
<v Speaker 1>Our human evolution at the same time. Thank you, David Wallace.

0:34:04.000 --> 0:34:04.920
<v Speaker 5>Well, thank you.

0:34:05.920 --> 0:34:09.279
<v Speaker 1>That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

0:34:09.320 --> 0:34:12.560
<v Speaker 1>every Monday, Wednesday and Friday to hear the best minds

0:34:12.560 --> 0:34:15.799
<v Speaker 1>in politics makes sense of all this chaos. If you

0:34:15.880 --> 0:34:18.560
<v Speaker 1>enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend

0:34:18.640 --> 0:34:22.200
<v Speaker 1>and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.