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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action, all.

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Speaker 3: Right. Here we go from throwing out spect we're sitting

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Speaker 3: up to cash.

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Speaker 2: That's all we see. Most gamblers when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 2: they go to swin. That's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 2: ultimate combine you.

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Speaker 4: Want to.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to The Action Network Podcast presented by bettm VM.

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Speaker 4: I am your host Chris Raybon, and today we've got

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Speaker 4: our NFL Player Projections episode for week number ten. We're

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Speaker 4: gonna run through our top five at each skilled position,

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Speaker 4: discuss players were high and low on, and throw out

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Speaker 4: some player prop streaks position as well. Get to break

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Speaker 4: it down with me one of the most accurate fantasy

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Speaker 4: football rankers in the game, the odds maker, Sean Turner.

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Speaker 2: Sean, welcome back, how you doing, Thanks for having me.

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Speaker 3: Good to be back. Just completely exhausted, but well worth it.

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Speaker 3: You know. I got to go golf with my buddies

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Speaker 3: for like three straight days and just absolutely gorgeous weather.

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Speaker 3: It was like ninety degrees though so insanely hot. I

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Speaker 3: got to watch, you know, most of the game Sunday

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Speaker 3: it was still updating projections, but I didn't get to

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Speaker 3: do some of my other stuff. But yeah, how to blast.

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Speaker 3: And I know you're you're heading off to a wedding

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Speaker 3: this week too, so I hope you have a good

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Speaker 3: time there.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll I'm I'm pretty up against it right now,

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Speaker 4: so with me, But I thought I had it was

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Speaker 4: a really fun week. I thought it one of the

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Speaker 4: most entertaining NFL weeks. Yeah, probably probably in years really,

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Speaker 4: I mean, the CJ. Stroud thing, the cash jobs. It

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Speaker 4: was just a really really cool week, all those good matchups,

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Speaker 4: Tyree Kill getting fumble six, fun fun week, CJ Strout

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Speaker 4: pulling ahead of Laporta again.

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Speaker 2: Now on that Hall of Fame.

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Speaker 3: Hall of Jax, no kidding, I mean they both might

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Speaker 3: make it at this point, right, all right.

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Speaker 4: We'll jump right into quarterback. Who you got for your

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Speaker 4: top five?

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Speaker 3: So I have Josh Allen, Joe Burrow number two. Then

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Speaker 3: I have Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert.

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Speaker 4: Yep, I got Alan Burrow, Jackson, Prescott and Herbert as well,

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Speaker 4: So pretty similar there.

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Speaker 2: Who you high on?

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Speaker 3: I'm high on Gino Smith right now. You know he's

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Speaker 3: my QB eight to start the week. Easier has h

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Speaker 3: QB eleven, but you know, he had a brutal Week nine.

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Speaker 3: But if you think about it, he's coming off a

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Speaker 3: two week stretch where he had to face two of

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Speaker 3: the top defenses in the league and the Browns and Ravens.

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Speaker 3: So should bounce back with a good game here against

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Speaker 3: the Commanders. You know, their defense ranks twenty ninth and

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Speaker 3: d do A gets the pass and they just had

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Speaker 3: a bit of a fire sale with their defense, So

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Speaker 3: should be even easier going forward. So I think he

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Speaker 3: bounces back here. Plus, you know, I always thought, you know,

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Speaker 3: his value would probably go up later in the season

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Speaker 3: once Jackson Smith Nijigba kind of breaks out, and that's

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Speaker 3: been happening. So this is turning into one of the

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Speaker 3: best wide receiver trios in the league. And plus Seattle

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Speaker 3: has the fourth highest team total of the week. That's

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Speaker 3: always good for quarterbacks. You know, his odds of scoring

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Speaker 3: two or more touchdowns who they are are probably elevated

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Speaker 3: this week. So I like Gino as the top ten

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Speaker 3: quarterback this week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we both kind of called it last week.

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Speaker 4: It was just not the week for Gino Smith at all. Predictably,

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Speaker 4: he face planning along with the rest of that Seattle team.

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Speaker 4: But it's been a rough year for Gino just fantasy wise,

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Speaker 4: so hopefully he gets back to it this week and

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Speaker 4: what should be a much easier matchup.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's my QB ten to start the week.

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Speaker 4: I am high on Tara Heinike. He's my quarterback fifteen.

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Speaker 4: He's QB twenty one in ECR. And that's basically because

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Speaker 4: you're gonna get some more stress to throw the football

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Speaker 4: from this Arizona Cardinal team now that Kyler Murray is back.

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Speaker 2: I wish you would think.

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Speaker 4: But either way, it's a bad defense for this Arizona

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Speaker 4: Cardinal team and should have a good chance of getting

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Speaker 4: Drake London back. So I think the circumstances this week

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Speaker 4: for Heinike will be a lot better than they were

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Speaker 4: last week when he was facing that you know, Minnesota blitz,

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Speaker 4: which is really tough.

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Speaker 2: To you know.

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Speaker 4: I think people are still kind of sleeping on Minnesota,

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Speaker 4: but it's a completely different team from last year, just

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Speaker 4: in a lot of ways. So this week against Arizona,

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Speaker 4: I think Heinike has a better day and may surprise

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Speaker 4: some people.

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Speaker 3: So high on him, Yeah, I was kind of shocked

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Speaker 3: they were only minus one against Cardinals, but it you know,

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Speaker 3: it makes sense with Kyler returning, James Connor also might

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Speaker 3: be back, so that that helps elevate the offense, you know,

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Speaker 3: the passing attack for the Falcons. They might have to

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Speaker 3: keep throwing the ball.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, who knows that. Arthur Smith these days? Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I mean he's just stuck the week. At least he's

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Speaker 4: popping a little bit compared to consensus.

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Speaker 3: Who you low on. I'm low on Deshaun Watson against

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Speaker 3: the Ravens. You know, ecier asm QB nineteen, but I

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Speaker 3: am all the way down to QB twenty six with

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Speaker 3: only twenty eight starting quarterbacks this week. So that shows

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Speaker 3: how low I am on um. You know last week

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Speaker 3: he did. You know, he's able to take advantage of

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Speaker 3: the easy matchup against the Cardinals. His shoulder appeared to

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Speaker 3: be much healthier, so that's good for him long term.

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Speaker 3: That was looking really scary for a second there, But

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Speaker 3: this is just an absolutely brutal matchup. You know, the

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Speaker 3: Ravens defense ranks second NDBO against the pass. You know,

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Speaker 3: the Browns have the second lowest team total of the week,

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Speaker 3: so that's you know, going to be really tough for

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Speaker 3: Watson to score multiple touchdowns here. He hasn't really flashed

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Speaker 3: enough upside to really trust him against a good defense.

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Speaker 3: So I mean he is way down there in my

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Speaker 3: rankings to open the week.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, he is my QB twenty four, so not quite

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Speaker 4: as those you but right there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's it's tough even in two Kblee got

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Speaker 4: that Ravens d just was so good.

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Speaker 3: Yep.

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Speaker 2: I am low on Derek Carr this week.

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Speaker 4: He is my QB nineteen, he's QB fifteen in expert consensus.

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Speaker 4: And for me, it's again facing this Minnesota pass defense.

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Speaker 4: I think it's you know, people are kind of looking

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Speaker 4: at it the same way they looked at it last

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Speaker 4: year when Daniel Jones was just had like a perfect

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Speaker 4: game against them in the playoffs and they were just bad.

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Speaker 2: But I think Brian Florest has really transformed this defense.

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Speaker 4: And you know, they're blitzing like over half the time

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Speaker 4: on passing downs and that's just tough for opposing quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: You got to get the ball out. It's confusing.

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Speaker 4: You might you might trick them into some some turnovers

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Speaker 4: and things like that. So their pass defense is up

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Speaker 4: to thirteenth in DVOA, and car is also losing snaps

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Speaker 4: here and there to Tasom Hill at quarterback, including in

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Speaker 4: the red zone. I believe Taysom threw a touchdown last week,

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Speaker 4: so Carr is not really on that streamer borderline for me.

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Speaker 4: He's squarely a kind of two QB League super flex

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Speaker 4: start for me in week ten. All right, let's see

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Speaker 4: for props. Let's gotta go Kyler here. Your projections are

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Speaker 4: probably ahead of mine this week, But.

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Speaker 3: Are going passing yards or rushing?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, let's go passing yards. I mean that's really

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Speaker 2: where the car does.

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Speaker 4: I've been struggling is to produce passing yards, especially without Dobbs.

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Speaker 4: So I'm gonna go with let's go to even two

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Speaker 4: hundred and a half.

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Speaker 3: Look that I wrote down. See that two hundred and

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Speaker 3: a half. I don't know if you could see that.

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Speaker 2: Oh wow, wow wow, oh man. Oh, it's a true

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Speaker 2: coin flip.

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Speaker 3: I'll go over here, but barely because I think he'll scramble.

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Speaker 3: He'll scramble a little bit less early on, so I'll

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Speaker 3: give him like five extra yards just based on my gut.

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Speaker 3: But that's obviously a good line. We already have his

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Speaker 3: rushing yards though, that's I think that's also tricky projector

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Speaker 3: right now, right around thirty okay, I'm around twenty five, okay,

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Speaker 3: so yeah, let's give him those five yards. I'm not

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Speaker 3: giving him on the ground through the air. There that's

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Speaker 3: the tiebreaker.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's that's about right.

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Speaker 4: It's you know, he could come out, he could come

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Speaker 4: out throwing out more, but it's tough to know.

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Speaker 2: With Carnalteine, where.

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Speaker 3: Do you have ranked that? This puts him right on

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Speaker 3: the cusp of QB twelve, right, yeah, avam QB thirteen. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: what about you? Yeah, QB thirteen. I mean you would

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Speaker 3: have to decide like him or Baker Mayfield or Russell Wilson,

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Speaker 3: Josh Dobbs, so that that last slot's kind of wide open.

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Speaker 3: So I think just I will have to hear, you know,

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Speaker 3: how he's looking in practice, how he's you know, anticipating,

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Speaker 3: like running the ball. That will probably dictate where he

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Speaker 3: ultimately ends up. But yeah, right now, I'm QB thirteen.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's go to running back. Who are you know?

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Speaker 2: Who are you top five?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? So my top five is Christian McCaffrey, Welcome back,

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Speaker 3: Austin Eckler, Jonathan Taylor, Travis ETN and Tony Pollard.

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Speaker 4: I got McCaffrey, Taylor, ETN, Ekwer and Josh Jacobs in

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Speaker 4: the toughest.

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Speaker 2: Who are you high on?

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Speaker 3: So I'm high on your boy Alexander Madison. This week

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Speaker 3: he's back back to being the workhorse running back. You know,

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Speaker 3: it was a near even, you know, fifty to fifty

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Speaker 3: committee last week before cam Akers, you know, unfortunately, tore

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Speaker 3: his achilles again. Just on a side note, that's that's

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Speaker 3: going to be really tough for him to return next

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Speaker 3: year beyond, just because that's that's the second time now

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Speaker 3: he's torn his achilles. So hope, hopefully he gets better.

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Speaker 3: But you know, with him out, Madison's probably back to

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Speaker 3: being the true workhorse back. You know, I don't think

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Speaker 3: I expect ty Chandler to really eat in his workload

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Speaker 3: nearly as much as cam Akers. So well, the Saints

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Speaker 3: is isn't necessarily a great matchup with Madison. We're never

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Speaker 3: really banking on efficiency anyway, so at least we can

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Speaker 3: bank on volume again. So I think he's back in

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Speaker 3: that you know, low end RB two status. I have

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Speaker 3: him RB fifteen actually to open up the week. So

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Speaker 3: so I like him this week. I think you trust

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Speaker 3: him to see twenty plus touches again. And the other

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Speaker 3: back is Keaton Mitchell. You know, I was keeping tabs

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Speaker 3: on him last week in case he returned from his

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Speaker 3: hamsterring injury, not a back on playing in fantasy. There

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Speaker 3: weren't any player props, but for the Fantasy Pros contest.

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Speaker 3: You know, I just wanted to make sure I was

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Speaker 3: a bit higher on him, So I was like over

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Speaker 3: twenty slots higher on him versus ECR. I thought he

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Speaker 3: was sneaky, and you know, sure enough, he had a

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Speaker 3: couple of good runs early on and they just kind

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Speaker 3: of stuck with him, and he had that massive, massive

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Speaker 3: game I think what nine carries for like almost one

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Speaker 3: hundred and forty yards. So obviously he's going to be just,

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Speaker 3: you know, a very popular waiver wire ad this week.

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Speaker 3: And normally I should on those guys like usually they're overrated,

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Speaker 3: but I think he could be sneaky because this is

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Speaker 3: a backfield where he could absolutely become the workhorse back

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Speaker 3: out of the blue. You know, I don't think Gus

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Speaker 3: Edwards has as strong of a hold on this as

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Speaker 3: you know, other lead backs, and I think we saw,

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Speaker 3: like you know, even after Gus had two touchdowns, they

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Speaker 3: kind of let Keaton Mitchell be the lead back after that,

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Speaker 3: and then Justine still saw a ton of work in

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Speaker 3: garbage time. So I think there's a chance Mitchell could

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Speaker 3: be the lead back this week. Granted it is a

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Speaker 3: tough matchup against the Brown, so I only have Mitchell

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Speaker 3: as my RB thirty eight. So he's a guy I think,

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Speaker 3: you know, we should be adding this week, kind of

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Speaker 3: using him as an RB three flex option if needed.

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Speaker 3: But going forward, I think there's a chance, you know,

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Speaker 3: he could be an RB two value or better where

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Speaker 3: he doesn't really need an injury to overtake, sort of

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Speaker 3: a two three man backfield. So love to I saw.

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Speaker 3: I know he's gonna be popular this week, but I

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Speaker 3: think for good reason. So I think he's a guy

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Speaker 3: we should you know, consider a potential RB two back

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Speaker 3: going forward.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely. You know, he's he's very talented. I was looking.

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Speaker 4: I was kind of keeping tabs on him too, and

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Speaker 4: that's not a good look for a guy like Justice Hill,

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Speaker 4: who is the you know, the kind of de facto

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Speaker 4: number two back now, he got a lot of work

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Speaker 4: last week in the blowout, but I think Teton Mitchell's

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Speaker 4: can easily cut into at least Hills if not Gus Edwards.

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Speaker 2: I am high on Rashad White this week. He's my

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Speaker 2: RB twelve.

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Speaker 4: He's rby seventeen in consensus, and that's just because he's

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Speaker 4: been a big threat in the passing game. He continues

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Speaker 4: to see about eighty percent of the over eighty percent

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Speaker 4: of the passing down snaps, running a route, over seventy

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Speaker 4: percent of the dropbacks, and you know last week he

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Speaker 4: saw twenty carries. He's seeing about seventy seventy five percent

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Speaker 4: of the running back carries as well.

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Speaker 2: So just a good workload for him.

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Speaker 4: Even though the Titans are somewhat of a tough matchup,

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Speaker 4: you know, they've starting to show cracks in their run

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Speaker 4: defense hasn't been as good as we've kind of been

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Speaker 4: accustomed to. We saw the Steelers and Naki Harris have

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Speaker 4: success last Thursday night. So Rashad White, you know, all

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Speaker 4: this passing down work I think is kind of keeping

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Speaker 4: him afloat, and they can't really find any answers with

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Speaker 4: that backup tandem of Edmunds and Vaughn. Those guys aren't

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Speaker 4: really doing much and every time they get on the field,

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Speaker 4: they don't really look good. So I have Rashad White

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Speaker 4: is a top twelve back this week, so like him.

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Speaker 3: Yeah right there with He's my RB fourteen. I thought,

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Speaker 3: you know, I thought Chase Edmonds was going to potentially

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Speaker 3: make a run for that number two role. They've they've

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Speaker 3: been really trying to get somebody else involved but hasn't

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Speaker 3: worked out. So it looks like White's like more of

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Speaker 3: a true workhorse back right now. So I agree he

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00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:40,959
Speaker 3: should be like a high end RB two this week.

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Speaker 3: Who are low on I'm low on Saquon Barkley. He

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Speaker 3: opens the week as my RB nineteen. I think consensus

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Speaker 3: has him like still in the top ten. But this

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Speaker 3: is just the Giant season is going to go from

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Speaker 3: bad to worse. You know, It's one thing to go

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Speaker 3: from Daniel Jones the Tyrod Taylor. It's a whole other thing.

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Speaker 3: Go from those two to Tommy DeVito and Jacob Eson

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Speaker 3: and Matt Barkley, whoever the hell they decide to start.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be a problem. They are just massive dogs

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Speaker 3: this week against the Cowboys. They have a team total

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Speaker 3: of eleven and a half, one of the lowest I've

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Speaker 3: seen in quite some time. So, you know, Barkley doesn't

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Speaker 3: have much touch on upside here. It's gonna be easier

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Speaker 3: for Dallas to just focus on slowing down Barkley early on,

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Speaker 3: I bet, and then his only upside in this situation

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Speaker 3: would be, you know, maybe he'll see a bunch of

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Speaker 3: targets later in the game when they're getting blown out,

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Speaker 3: but why would you even risk Barkley in the game

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Speaker 3: at that point. So I just think he has a

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Speaker 3: really low floor this week. Nothing against him. This is

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Speaker 3: just a really bad situation where he's going to be,

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Speaker 3: you know, severely impacted by it. And then the other

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Speaker 3: guy's Zach Moss. You know, unfortunately, it looks like his

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Speaker 3: time of splitting touches with Jonathan Taylor is coming to

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Speaker 3: an end. Last week, jt complete took complete control of

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Speaker 3: the backfield, so we saw Moss his rusher get nearly

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Speaker 3: cut in half. His routes run rate went from like

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00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:08,040
Speaker 3: thirty five percent down to ten percent. So, you know,

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Speaker 3: if this trend continues, which I think it will, he's

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Speaker 3: just more of a you know, high upside backup now

306
00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:15,200
Speaker 3: as opposed to a guy that we can almost trust

307
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Speaker 3: as an RB two or an RB three. So you know,

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Speaker 3: his punomol lasted. But as of now, I think we

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00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,600
Speaker 3: have to put Zach Moss back on our bench. But

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Speaker 3: don't drop him because if JT wherever ass time, you know,

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Speaker 3: he could you know, put up RB one numbers again.

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00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:33,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, that close backfield is tough to decipher, but it

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Speaker 4: looks like Taylor's back in complete control. Top five back

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Speaker 4: for me this week, I am low on Aaron Jones

315
00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:47,560
Speaker 4: this week. He is the RB thirteen in consensus, I

316
00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:51,080
Speaker 4: have him RB eighteen. And you know, he did start

317
00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,080
Speaker 4: to take a little bit more of the rush, air

318
00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:55,000
Speaker 4: and backfield snapshare.

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Speaker 2: Last week. He had.

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Speaker 4: Sixty percent of the running back carries. Uh, he had

321
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Speaker 4: a fifty two route participation rate to AJ Dillons thirty

322
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 4: nine percent. So he's getting back there, but still don't

323
00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,800
Speaker 4: completely trust him against a Steelers defense that's top ten

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Speaker 4: and adjusted lineyards allowed and you know, pretty solid against

325
00:16:20,880 --> 00:16:23,480
Speaker 4: the run, but just just a little bit above average

326
00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,160
Speaker 4: in DVOA. And this guy Jones, you know, he hasn't

327
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Speaker 4: really been able to make it through many games this year.

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Speaker 4: But you know, even if he does. This is a

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Speaker 4: game with a total of just thirty eight and the

330
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Speaker 4: Packers are underdogs, so you know, the game script might

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Speaker 4: he might not have as many running plays as you

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Speaker 4: did in a twenty to three win over the Rams

333
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:46,240
Speaker 4: that were starting Brett Rippons.

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Speaker 2: So we see this every year with Matt.

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Speaker 4: Floor, where you know, the minute Aaron Jones starts doing well,

336
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:55,840
Speaker 4: he goes away from him again. So I still have

337
00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,320
Speaker 4: him as a top twenty back, but you know him

338
00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:00,480
Speaker 4: as an RB one. I think that's a little bit

339
00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:03,880
Speaker 4: of a stretch. This week, I'm projected for about twelve

340
00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:06,600
Speaker 4: and a half, twelve to thirteen carries, even though he

341
00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:07,960
Speaker 4: got I think it was twenty last week.

342
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, same, and I was gonna say that they had

343
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:14,360
Speaker 3: thirty nine rush attempts last week just thanks to the blowout,

344
00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:16,840
Speaker 3: so you know, he benefit from that. He did, look,

345
00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,160
Speaker 3: you know, closer to one hundred percent than we've seen

346
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:21,920
Speaker 3: in a couple of years now, so the health is there.

347
00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:23,480
Speaker 3: But yeah, I don't know if we could bank on

348
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,760
Speaker 3: twenty four to twenty five touches from him going forward.

349
00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,280
Speaker 3: So yeah, I have him closer like RB twenty. So

350
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,479
Speaker 3: I'm right there with you all.

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Speaker 2: Right, what are we doing for the prop?

352
00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,439
Speaker 3: Well, let's go with Kate Mitchell. Total rushing yards against

353
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,199
Speaker 3: the Browns, of course is a tough matchup, and he

354
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,399
Speaker 3: still has a wide range of outcomes. I'm not saying

355
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,520
Speaker 3: he's an RB two yet, he has that upside, but

356
00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:47,800
Speaker 3: curious to hear you know where you have him to

357
00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:50,600
Speaker 3: open the week, But I have his rushing prop right

358
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:54,399
Speaker 3: now at thirty five and a half yards.

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00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:55,040
Speaker 2: Oh way under.

360
00:17:56,400 --> 00:17:58,440
Speaker 4: He's still the number three back for me, Like he's

361
00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:02,000
Speaker 4: still getting like percent of the carries. Yeah, yeah, because

362
00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,080
Speaker 4: I mean this is also I mean, you know, he

363
00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 4: did get in the game, but this, I mean this

364
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,119
Speaker 4: is a blowout almost from the start, So it's you

365
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,639
Speaker 4: still have to kind of look at Okay, you know,

366
00:18:12,400 --> 00:18:14,160
Speaker 4: where is he in the pecking order? Like I still

367
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:17,040
Speaker 4: think Justice Hill, I mean Edwards will start in Justice,

368
00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:19,440
Speaker 4: so I still think we'll enter the game before him.

369
00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:22,960
Speaker 4: So you know, depending how this goes, I think you

370
00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 4: could still see him go back to kind of more

371
00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,240
Speaker 4: of like what his season average is in terms, like

372
00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:29,560
Speaker 4: instead of that just one game.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I still have him pretty well, but definitely

374
00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,480
Speaker 2: got it minver. But yeah, I mean I think thirty

375
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:38,360
Speaker 2: if if A came out with thirty five and a half, yeah,

376
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:39,600
Speaker 2: I'll be swimming ahead.

377
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:43,560
Speaker 3: I don't think we'll see any props from him. And

378
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:45,399
Speaker 3: there's not really a season average for him to go

379
00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 3: back to because he had zero rusher teps for last week.

380
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:48,760
Speaker 3: Well yeah, I mean.

381
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean three games a period, and yet he's

382
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,439
Speaker 4: averaging like about fifteen percent of the carries.

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00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 2: Oh all yeah, right.

384
00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,960
Speaker 3: Right, But and if you look at like when Justice

385
00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 3: Hill's getting his touches, it was when the game is over.

386
00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 3: It was almost like they bubble rap Mitchell where that

387
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 3: could have been the time. Yeah, let him get a

388
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,120
Speaker 3: few more carries, but they just you know, shut him down.

389
00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 3: So I'm being very sneaky here with this prop. I

390
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,399
Speaker 3: understand that. But uh yeah, I think I think thirty

391
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 3: five and a half sounds about right based on my projections.

392
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:20,720
Speaker 3: But yeah, if they offer this prop he had, Look,

393
00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:22,679
Speaker 3: he has a wide range of outcomes. I would be

394
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 3: shocked if he finished a twenty or fifty. Uh but uh, okay,

395
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 3: I got it. You're under that for now? Makes sense?

396
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:30,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean one week.

397
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 4: You know, we've seen this so many times where guys

398
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:33,480
Speaker 4: it's like it's hard to try.

399
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 2: It's like, you know what will happen at the end

400
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:36,800
Speaker 2: of the day. It's just Gus Adwade's scoring three touchdowns

401
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:37,200
Speaker 2: like that.

402
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:39,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's fine. Oh you know what to count on

403
00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:43,639
Speaker 3: this fact, that's totally fine. This kind of reminds me

404
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:47,640
Speaker 3: of that Julil McLaughlin situation from a few weeks. Guys said,

405
00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 3: look like he could end up being on your bench

406
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,080
Speaker 3: like McGlaughlin is right now. He could be an RB two.

407
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 3: It's just a wide. But in that situation, I thought,

408
00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:57,879
Speaker 3: you know, I don't think he's gonna leap frog Javonte Williams,

409
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,600
Speaker 3: whereas you know, since JK. Dobbins is out, I think

410
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,239
Speaker 3: that's why it opens it up. So yeah, and this

411
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 3: is a brutal matchup. So I ad met this is

412
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 3: probably a bit high, but you know, I believe in

413
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 3: him this week.

414
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,679
Speaker 4: No love him as a player. I remember asking Stucky

415
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,880
Speaker 4: a couple weeks ago when he was first active. Oh yeah, yeah,

416
00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:17,840
Speaker 4: have you heard any inside info because Stucky is a

417
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 4: big y. Have you heard anything because I and here

418
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,160
Speaker 4: this guy Mitchell is going to start getting some runs.

419
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:27,240
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Speaker 4: we got for your top five at Wide Receiver.

451
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:28,159
Speaker 3: Uh so, I have Jamar Chase number one, but he

452
00:22:28,280 --> 00:22:30,920
Speaker 3: you know, he's questionable this week, so it could be

453
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 3: Stefan Diggs number one, and then I have i'm on Ras,

454
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:37,359
Speaker 3: Saint Brown, Ceedee Lamb, and Keenan Allen.

455
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, Chase had that hard fall and Chris Conser seemed

456
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 4: to he's like he's crawing out of bed tomorrow. Yeah yeah, right, yeah.

457
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 4: So yeah, I got digs Chase Alan lamb Amana.

458
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 3: Oh and uh Tank Dell just missed my top five vers. Yeah,

459
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 3: he's seven right now for me.

460
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,960
Speaker 4: Oh wow as a takedown fit even I'm not that Yeah,

461
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 4: I respect it isn't that crazy.

462
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 3: And his ECR is like twenty four. I think I'm

463
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 3: closer to Hurry should be. But I you know, was

464
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 3: shocked that he was wide receiver seven.

465
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 2: Who are you hiring?

466
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 3: I guess it should be tanked al, but I'm going

467
00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 3: to go with Mark's Brown. He's my wide receiver twenty five,

468
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 3: which is a bit higher than ECR. But you know,

469
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 3: he managed to post a four catch twenty four yard

470
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 3: game last week, which in context is like extremely impressive

471
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:36,679
Speaker 3: considering how awful Clayton Tune look last last week. And

472
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:40,160
Speaker 3: it was a tough matchup against the Browns. So I'm

473
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 3: definitely forgiving Hollywood Brown for that line. But he should

474
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 3: get a massive boost if Kyler Murray does return this week.

475
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 3: So I think he's you know, gonna be a you know,

476
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,160
Speaker 3: fringe wide receiver two wide receiver three options just based

477
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 3: on his usage. If Kyler Murray can get this offense

478
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 3: sustain over two hundred yards of passing offense. So I

479
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 3: like Marky's brown about back this week. I'm also really

480
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 3: high on kahalal Shakuru. He's my wide receiver forty four

481
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 3: to OPE in the week, and I had mentioned that obviously,

482
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 3: you know, Dalton K and Kve was gonna benefit from

483
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 3: Dawson Knox being out. You know, he's getting a ton

484
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 3: of playing time, ton of targets. But it's also Shakir

485
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,360
Speaker 3: who benefits as well because you know, the Bills are

486
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 3: just using way more eleven personnel. So he's you know,

487
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,959
Speaker 3: been averaging about a seventy five percent routes run rate

488
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 3: the past two weeks. With Dawson Knox out three straight

489
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:33,399
Speaker 3: games of four more receptions and the Broncos, you know

490
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,880
Speaker 3: they ranked dead last in deo against the past, this

491
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 3: does seem like a game where you know they would

492
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 3: just maybe lean on more shorter passes to guy like

493
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,119
Speaker 3: Shakir than just bombing it to Gabe Davis, although we'll see.

494
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 3: So I think Shakir, just based on his underlying usage,

495
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 3: has a pretty high floor, and you know he's a

496
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 3: solid option, you know, wide receiver, three flex type of

497
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 3: option in deeper leagues.

498
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, you're finally starting to come on after that. He

499
00:24:57,560 --> 00:24:59,760
Speaker 4: was buried on the depth chart to start the year.

500
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 4: I think he was behind Shirtfield and Deontay Hardy Bro.

501
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,440
Speaker 4: You know, with that that need for kind of going

502
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,880
Speaker 4: back to one one personnel. He stepped it up, all right.

503
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 4: I am high on Tankdale. Oh he's I mean, I

504
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 4: don't have a wide receiver. Would you say seven? He's eleven?

505
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 4: But I mean, you know, point taking. He came back

506
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 4: from his concussion and has run a route on ninety

507
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 4: percent of the dropbacks. And yeah, last week I was

508
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 4: hiring him as well. What I what I said, he's

509
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 4: like the smoothest juker in the league. This sided Tyreek

510
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 4: Hill and he kind of proved my point because everyone

511
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 4: talks about c J.

512
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 2: Stroud and that and rightfully so.

513
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 4: But I mean for that drive to happen, Tank Dale

514
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 4: has to get open a couple of times in some

515
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 4: really tight windows in the clutch.

516
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 2: And he did.

517
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 4: I mean that that catch on the sideline and then

518
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 4: the touchdowns and the game split between two defenders.

519
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 2: This guy just knows how to get open.

520
00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 4: He's on the field pretty much every snap these and

521
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 4: you know, talked about it early, like in the offseason.

522
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,360
Speaker 2: The first game I ever saw him play for.

523
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,520
Speaker 4: Houston, I was like, this guy's already the best like

524
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 4: receiver on the team in terms of separation, and I

525
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:13,719
Speaker 4: think that's still true, you know, as good a year

526
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,959
Speaker 4: as Nico is having. Yeah, I think what we're starting

527
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 4: to learn about c. J. Stroud too, is that he's

528
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 4: just a star. He's making everyone better. Right, So overall,

529
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 4: I think Tank is, I would still say, is probably

530
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 4: the best wide receiver on this team. And Nico has improved,

531
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 4: and you know he's having that what is it year

532
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 4: three breakout or whatever, but we also know, like, look

533
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 4: at what Stroud has done with Noah Brown. I don't

534
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 4: think Noah Brown ever had a one hundred and fifty

535
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 4: yard game, even with Dak Prescott in that in that

536
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 4: Cowboys offense that was putting up some numbers. So yeah,

537
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 4: really like Tank Dell, this week against the Cincinnati BEng

538
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 4: was in a game where another game, you know, Joe

539
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 4: Burrow is looking a lot better, that offense looking a

540
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 4: lot better. So another game where the Texans may have

541
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,360
Speaker 4: to score thirty plus to hang around in this one.

542
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 4: So like Tank Dell, he's my wide receiver. Eleven and

543
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 4: yet he's still kind of a fringe wide receiver two

544
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 4: in expert consensus.

545
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 2: All right, who are you loa?

546
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 3: I'm low on Michael Thomas begins week as my wide

547
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 3: receiver forty three, And you know, he's coming off his

548
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 3: first catchless game of the season. And I noticed something

549
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 3: bizarre on Saturday where like all of his receiving props

550
00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:27,120
Speaker 3: were off the board. They were up in the morning,

551
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 3: they were just gone completely for the rest of the day.

552
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 3: I don't know if they pop back up Sunday, but

553
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 3: I thought that was fishy. I know the Saints have

554
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 3: had like an illness going to the locker room. Yeah, yeah,

555
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks, so I don't know if like

556
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:39,199
Speaker 3: there was like inside info he was sick like, and

557
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 3: then he has a catchless game, so that was very concerning.

558
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 3: We've seen his routes round rate drop three straight games.

559
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 3: Three of the last five games. He's been hell blow

560
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 3: a twenty percent target rate, so maybe he's just fading

561
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 3: a bit. You know, he had kind of a hot start,

562
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,800
Speaker 3: you know, Rashid Shaheeds tearing it up. Chris Olive is

563
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 3: obviously a stud, so you know he could absolutely bounce back.

564
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 3: But just flagging it and just saying, you know, he's

565
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 3: out on my top forty for now. And the other

566
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 3: guy I'm low on is Noah Brown, just just because

567
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 3: I'm getting a ton of questions about him today after

568
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 3: you mentioned it his massive six catch, one hundred and

569
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 3: fifty three yard game and a touchdown. But I had

570
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 3: mentioned a couple of weeks ago that you know, his

571
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 3: return was going to complicate the wide receiver room a bit.

572
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 3: You know, we could obviously still trust you know, Tank

573
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 3: Dell and Nico Collins, but you know, then Robert Woods

574
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 3: got hurt, so we didn't have to kind of project

575
00:28:32,080 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 3: them with everybody healthy, but you know, we could see

576
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 3: Robert Woods return this week, which will directly impact Noah Brown.

577
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 3: You know, I think he's probably gonna see his routes

578
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 3: run rate take quite a bit of a hit if

579
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 3: Woods returned, so well, we can't. We also can't bank

580
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 3: on CJ. Shroud throwing for four hundred and seven yards

581
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,719
Speaker 3: most weeks, maybe some weeks if I'm being honest, But

582
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 3: that was a big reason why Brown had a big game.

583
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 3: But I think for now we can only really trust

584
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 3: Tank Dell, Nico Collins, and Dalton Schultz and our fancy lineups,

585
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 3: whereas you know, I have Brown outside of my top sixty.

586
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 3: So he's a guy that you know a lot of

587
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 3: people are outing on the waiver wire. But I would

588
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 3: just be careful with that. I don't think he's a

589
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 3: guy we could trust quite yet. I think he would need,

590
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 3: you know, dell Or Collins to go down for us

591
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 3: really ranking him in the top forties. So I've been

592
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 3: telling people to cool it with Noah Brown.

593
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 2: Are you projecting Are you projecting Woods back this week

594
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 2: or no?

595
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I'm projecting him back if he were out.

596
00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 3: You know, I don't even know if Brown would be

597
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 3: in my top forty, but I think Woods is expected

598
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 3: to return this week or he's like trending that way.

599
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 2: Yeah.

600
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, It's gonna be interesting because I mean Brown has

601
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 4: played well, He's played probably out played Woods.

602
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 2: But yeah, last week I was really high on Brown.

603
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 4: He's definitely I think like it was one of the

604
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 4: only people that had him into my top fifty even

605
00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 4: yeah this week, Yeah, this week, I have him around

606
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 4: sixty a start, he would he would bump, he would

607
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 4: be around my fit, like around right inside that top fifty.

608
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 2: I think if.

609
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 4: If Woods was out, but yeah, into the forties that

610
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 4: that might be a little bit of a stretch for Brown,

611
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 4: but he's fifty one to start the week, so yeah,

612
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 4: I don't have too much of a beef with it.

613
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 4: I am low on a couple of guys. First guy,

614
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 4: Davante Adams, he's my wide receiver, twenty two to start

615
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 4: the week. He's sixteen in ECR, so he is dropping rightfully.

616
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 4: So this just defense, just really tough against wide receivers

617
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 4: when you have that combination of Sauce Gardner and DJ

618
00:30:35,960 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 4: Reid on the outside. And we've seen Davonte's production really

619
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 4: drop off these last few weeks, whether it's been Garoppolo

620
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 4: and now you know O'Connell in the lineup, so you

621
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 4: know he was happier because they got to win, but

622
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 4: you know this is now it's gonna be a tough

623
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 4: matchup for O'Connor to get him the ball in this one,

624
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 4: and if he does force feed him, I don't think

625
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 4: it's going to end well. So just kind of a

626
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 4: tough situation all around. The total in this game thirty,

627
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 4: so you're expecting a low scoring game, not a ton

628
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 4: of touchdown equity, and the Raiders have been kind of

629
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 4: taking advantage of all the coverage Adams gets. That's it's

630
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 4: really opened up Jacobi Meyers game. So we're seeing Myers

631
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 4: get into the end zone and really give Adams a

632
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 4: run for his money in terms of fantasy production. So

633
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 4: loan Adams and the other guy's Christian Watson. This guy

634
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:28,120
Speaker 4: just has trouble staying healthy throughout games and finishing games,

635
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 4: and he just really hasn't been productive this year. So

636
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 4: he is my wide receiver forty four, and he's wide

637
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 4: receiver thirty.

638
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 2: Seven in consensus.

639
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 4: I would if I could help it, I would not

640
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 4: want to start him even as a number three wide receiver.

641
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 4: You know, he could see a lot of Joey Porter

642
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 4: in that Pittsburgh game, which you know he's been he's

643
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 4: been really playing well, So I think there are better

644
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 4: receivers that you can go to, especially with it's just

645
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 4: another one of these low scoring games.

646
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 2: The totals just thirty eight. I believe it is so

647
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 2: not a ton of touchdown equity.

648
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 4: He's not really busting off these big plays, which I

649
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 4: guess is somewhat predictable. It's hard to rely all those

650
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 4: and just nothing's really great going great with this Packer offense.

651
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,239
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, they they they're feeling good. They

652
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 4: got the win last week, but you still put up.

653
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: A below average amount of points on offense. Twenty points

654
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 2: is still below the league averages around twenty two. So

655
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 2: not really nothing really to hang your hat on anymore.

656
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 3: With Christian Watson, yeah, he luckily avoided the concussion protocol,

657
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 3: but you know he's dealing with back chest injuries. You know,

658
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 3: he missed handful of games with the handscering injury. Like

659
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,160
Speaker 3: you said, like even if he suits up, you can

660
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 3: never bank on him to finish full game now, which

661
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,719
Speaker 3: is really frustrating. So yeah, he's I think he's outside

662
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 3: my top forty as well.

663
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 4: All right, see for the prop, we're gonna go with

664
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 4: Quinton Johnston, Oh boy, I'm gonna go with his receiving

665
00:32:57,360 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 4: yardage and we're gonna go. We got fourteen on Monday night.

666
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 2: Yep almost.

667
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, he was on the field almost every snap, but

668
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 4: it was a tough matchup Jets. So thirty six and

669
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 4: a half Palmer on the yah, I are now, but

670
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 4: you got guy, Yeah, so let's go. Yeah, let's go

671
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 4: Johnson thirty four and I think thirty six and a half

672
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 4: thirty six.

673
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 3: Thirty give me those two extra yards. I wrote thirty,

674
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 3: but that's that's a good line. I have his projection

675
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 3: at thirty six, so I'm just thinking his medians closer

676
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 3: to thirty. But yeah, I'm I'm not again. I was

677
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 3: one of the people saying it's too soon to call

678
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 3: him a bust, but I definitely don't think he's ready

679
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 3: to see the number two receiver. I think Guidan's return

680
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 3: could eat into that a bit, so all lean under here,

681
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 3: but I would be shocked at some point if he

682
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 3: does breakout. But until he see it's hard to trust him.

683
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's I mean, this could be a week where

684
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 4: he has at least a better yeah score.

685
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 2: I mean the Jet.

686
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 4: You know he was on the field his season high

687
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 4: routes ninety. The Jets are just a tough matchup. But

688
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 4: guys actually may help because Guitton may run those wind

689
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 4: sprint clear out routes that open up Johnston for more

690
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 4: intermediate underneath stuff. Just higher percentage looks. So at least

691
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 4: get the ball in his hands. Okay, tight end? Who

692
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 4: you got top five?

693
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 3: Oh baby, I got Sam Laporta number one? Who oh man?

694
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 3: That feels good to say that. We'll see if he

695
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 3: stays there by the end of the week. But I

696
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 3: have number one, and then I have who he replaced,

697
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 3: number two, TJ. Howkinson. Then I have Dalton Kincaid, so

698
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,799
Speaker 3: two rookies in my top three, George Kittle and then

699
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,399
Speaker 3: Mark Andrews I have.

700
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:42,520
Speaker 4: I still have Andrews number one, Laporta number two, Kiddo

701
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 4: number three, kinkaid A number four, and then Hockinson five.

702
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 2: Who are you high on?

703
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 3: I'm I guess I'm high on Mike is SICKI I'm

704
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: pretty in line with like the top fifteen tight ends.

705
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 3: We had that historic streamer week of tight ends a

706
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 3: couple weeks ago, so nothing too exciting there. But I

707
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 3: had thought, you know, with the Patriots wide receiver room decimated,

708
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 3: maybe they'll get Mike Giseki more involved, and obviously you

709
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 3: know Hunter Henry and that's exactly what happened. Both tight

710
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 3: ends topped an eighty five percent routes run rate. Luckily

711
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 3: I was out this weekend. I probably would have bet

712
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:22,240
Speaker 3: on Gasiki's over on his receiving props. Thank god I didn't,

713
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 3: because you know, even though he had a season high

714
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,840
Speaker 3: in playing time. He only saw one target, which was

715
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 3: a season low. Didn't even catch the target either, so

716
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 3: I had a goose egg. But it was at least

717
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:36,319
Speaker 3: encouraging to see, you know, the underlying usage being that high.

718
00:35:36,320 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 3: I think that could stay going forward. You know, the

719
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:41,399
Speaker 3: wide receiver room's give me an issue for the rest

720
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 3: of the season, so it just would make sense to

721
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 3: just play Henry and gaseki over eighty five percent of

722
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,879
Speaker 3: the past attempt so I could see him turning into,

723
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:54,439
Speaker 3: you know, a top twenty option going forward. Obviously nothing

724
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 3: to get too excited about, but you know, he could

725
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 3: sneak in there at you know, also Kay Doddon is

726
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 3: on the rise, so he's a guy that could be

727
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 3: you know, a sneaky top fifteen option this week. But

728
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:07,720
Speaker 3: other than that, I'm pretty much in line with ECR

729
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 3: on these top twenty guys.

730
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, Gaz Sicki's playing time definitely rose. I mean, maybe

731
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:13,879
Speaker 4: it goes back down a widow if Parker is back.

732
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 4: They seem to not want to play Kashan Lute healthy scratching.

733
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 2: Him, but yeah, I noticed that too.

734
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,359
Speaker 4: His routes run, his route participations jump way up last week.

735
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:26,919
Speaker 2: I'm high on Jake Ferguson. I know you were highing

736
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 2: him last week.

737
00:36:27,480 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 4: That was a great call, and he continues to be

738
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 4: on the field almost every passing snap. He has seen

739
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 4: his route participation rate go from eighty four percent before

740
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 4: the bye eighty eight percent coming out of the by

741
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:44,479
Speaker 4: eighty nine percent last week. Going up against the Giant

742
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 4: shouldn't be a major lee pass heavy game script or

743
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 4: anything like that for Dallas, but still a good matchup

744
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:54,879
Speaker 4: for Ferguson. He's just getting so many routes that it's

745
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,919
Speaker 4: hard to fade him. So he is my tight end

746
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:02,360
Speaker 4: number seven to Art Weak. He's tight in nine in consensus,

747
00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 4: so that guys not too much of a difference, but

748
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:06,880
Speaker 4: little higher. And I think he's going to continue to

749
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,439
Speaker 4: have a good year. Looks like, you know, that's kind

750
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 4: of he's kind of settling in his Dack's second favorite

751
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 4: target after after Ceedee Lamb. You know, Gallup's been struggling

752
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 4: and Brandon Cooks too has been kind of absent from

753
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:20,720
Speaker 4: from the offense.

754
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think that even once Peyton Hendershot returns,

755
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:26,359
Speaker 3: he should, you know, maintain this role. I think he's

756
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 3: earned it. You know, Hendershot's injury, you know, allowed him

757
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 3: to kind of step up into this, you know, lead

758
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 3: tight end role and he's done great. So I think, yeah,

759
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 3: rest of the season should be a top ten option.

760
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 2: All right, who are you lo on?

761
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 3: I'm low and Michael Mayer just because you know, his

762
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 3: routes run rate have been a bit of a roller

763
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 3: coach red. It seems like every time he's about to

764
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 3: break out, you know and potentially be that top fifteen

765
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 3: you know tight end, Austin Hooper comes right back and

766
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,160
Speaker 3: season increasing routes run It's reminds me of you know,

767
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:01,839
Speaker 3: Zach Ertz and Trade McBride a few weeks ago, where

768
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 3: they they're kind of bouncing back and forth. So, you know,

769
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 3: Mayor's routes run rate dip back down a sixty percent,

770
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 3: not going to be startable with that sort of usage.

771
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 3: You know, we'll see maybe a and O'Connell will target

772
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 3: the tight ends a bit more heavily. You know, Jimmy

773
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 3: g is completely ignoring them for the first several games.

774
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 3: But you know, while Mayor does have I think he

775
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 3: still has top fifteen upside, you just can't trust him yet.

776
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 3: So he's a guy I'm still monitoring. But We'll want

777
00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,800
Speaker 3: to see his routes, run rate, you know, continue to rise,

778
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:33,799
Speaker 3: and you know Hooper fade off a bit before we

779
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 3: trust him and that that might happen. You know, it

780
00:38:35,719 --> 00:38:38,279
Speaker 3: seems like the Raiders are in out evaluation mode for

781
00:38:38,320 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 3: the second half. You know, they're starting Aidan O'Connell, who again,

782
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 3: I'm still saying he's this year's brock Purty. We just

783
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 3: needed to see him play a bit better. But we

784
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 3: could see Mayor get a lot more playing time in

785
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:50,879
Speaker 3: the second half, but we just can't trust them until

786
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 3: we actually see that.

787
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's a new new coordinator, now new coach. Yeah,

788
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 4: so yeah, it's kind of got gotta be a wait

789
00:38:58,239 --> 00:38:59,839
Speaker 4: and see mode with him.

790
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 2: I am low on David Najoku. He is the tight

791
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,240
Speaker 2: end fourteen in ECR. He's my tight in sixteen.

792
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm pretty in line with most, but a

793
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 4: couple spots lower on him, and that's just because this

794
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 4: is a tough matchup going against the Baltimore Ravens. They're

795
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 4: number ten in DVOA against tight ends, and you just

796
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 4: don't expect a ton of production from this Cleveland offense

797
00:39:24,080 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 4: in this game. So you know, the Joku's had some

798
00:39:26,640 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 4: good matchups the last few weeks, going against Seattle Arizona,

799
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 4: but now I think it's a little bit of a

800
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 4: tougher matchup and he's still you know, not putting up

801
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 4: a ton of yardage in there.

802
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 2: It's running route about seventy.

803
00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 4: Five percent of the time, so solid underlying metrics, but

804
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 4: nothing that jumps out. So I'd look to other options

805
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,760
Speaker 4: if I could, just I guess a really tough defense

806
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 4: this week.

807
00:39:49,200 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 2: All right, where are we going for the problem?

808
00:39:51,400 --> 00:39:54,560
Speaker 3: All right? So I have a fun one here. I

809
00:39:56,000 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 3: ran my simulator ten thousand times this week and came

810
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:04,359
Speaker 3: up with a line for sam la Porta's actual rank

811
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:08,399
Speaker 3: this week, like where he's gonna finish. So he's he's

812
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 3: my tight end. What it looks like fancy his ecards

813
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 3: tight end one too, but just going to shit, This

814
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 3: is kind of going to show just because the guy

815
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 3: who is ranked first doesn't mean like he's expected to finish.

816
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 3: You know, it's the top scring tight end. So I

817
00:40:21,200 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 3: have his over under at seven and a half, so basically,

818
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 3: will he finish inside the top seven? That's kind of

819
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 3: where I have, like the break even fifty to fifty

820
00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 3: for him on his actual rank this.

821
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:36,879
Speaker 4: Week, I'm going to say, yes he will inside. Yeah,

822
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:40,320
Speaker 4: I mean the Chargers, they are allowing the most schedule

823
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,880
Speaker 4: adjusted receiving yards per game to the tight end position,

824
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 4: according to FtM Fantasy seventy one point six.

825
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:49,359
Speaker 2: So you know, we saw it.

826
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 4: Last last night with Tyra Conquin and you saw Mu

827
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 4: should have had a touchdown, So there, their numbers against

828
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 4: tight end should have been worse.

829
00:40:56,200 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 2: But shots him save the under uh for me. So yeah, I.

830
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 4: Think, I mean, it's definitely true that, you know, just

831
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:06,240
Speaker 4: because the guy is ranked at a certain spot, there's

832
00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 4: a wide range of outcomes. But yeah, if I'm just

833
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 4: looking up and down, I think it's gonna be hard

834
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 4: pressed to see more than seven tight ends beating up,

835
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 4: especially given that it's.

836
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:18,880
Speaker 2: A really good matchup.

837
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:22,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, we're gonna go Kelsey and Goddard run by

838
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:24,840
Speaker 3: this week. Oh Goddard might be out for a while,

839
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 3: but yeah, you know too, you know, the top tight

840
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 3: end and another you know, top ten tight end is

841
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,959
Speaker 3: out this week, so it's you know, kind of wide

842
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 3: open here at the top. But yeah, I think top

843
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 3: sevens where I have it at a fifty to fifty chance.

844
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:41,600
Speaker 4: All right that is going to do it for our

845
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 4: week number ten NFL Player Projections episode of the Action

846
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 4: Network Podcast presented by bet MGM. For more great fantasy

847
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 4: content from Sean and myself, be sure to check out

848
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 4: our full fantasy previous episode out right now over on

849
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:57,240
Speaker 4: the Fantasy Flex podcast channel. And if you're in em betting,

850
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 4: my weekly betting preview episode every Thursday with Stucky is

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00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:03,320
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852
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 2: Also, be sure to.

853
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 4: Check out the Action Network discord link in the episode description,

854
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:12,160
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855
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:16,960
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856
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:20,120
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00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:22,520
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00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:25,480
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00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:57,160
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00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:46,359
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863
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

864
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler