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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: All sorts of.

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Speaker 3: People working from overnight to interpret the trade deal. We

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Speaker 3: get the usual verbiage from the President and unique verbiage

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Speaker 3: commercial evangeline of Brussels. But there's already beginning to be

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Speaker 3: comments made. Rusher Sharma very strong, an e ft from

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Speaker 3: the Rockefeller Foundation, John Authors with an absolutely definitive essay

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Speaker 3: for Bara. I want to read this quote into crittygoup to.

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Speaker 3: This is John Authors quoting Tiger's financial partners Jean Ergus quote.

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Speaker 3: It's more of the extraction of reparations from Europe for

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Speaker 3: perceived past wrongs, joining us now the queen of reparations.

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Speaker 3: Kritty Gupta in London this morning, Critty, I saw the

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Speaker 3: French Prime Minister in French who is absolutely scathing of Brussels.

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Speaker 3: Are the twenty seven nations of Europe going to go

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Speaker 3: along with a handshake by Brussels?

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Speaker 4: In Scotland, it's looking doubtful by the minute. And I

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Speaker 4: think this is fascinating here because last forty eight hours

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Speaker 4: in Europe have been one where Europe has actually shown

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Speaker 4: a very rare show of unity, especially between France and Germany.

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Speaker 4: The idea that they were really backing Ursula Vonderlion to

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Speaker 4: make this deal. I thought the quote of the day

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Speaker 4: from her was this is the best offer we could get,

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Speaker 4: the best deal we could get, and they basically settled

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Speaker 4: from fifteen percent. They came out swinging wanting zero for

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Speaker 4: zero and are now getting fifteen percent. But at the

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Speaker 4: core of it, it really comes down to just each

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Speaker 4: country wanting to push for their own agenda.

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Speaker 3: Everyone reaffirms Paul Donovan UBS, thank you for reaffirming this morning.

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Speaker 3: A tariff is a tax on somebody on the America.

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Speaker 3: Krugman would say, yeah, there's a dead weight loss, but

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Speaker 3: it's a tax on the American consumer. It's a tax

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Speaker 3: on American business. A given Mercedes crity the German Association

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Speaker 3: of Automotive Industry. This is CNBC. Thank you to Kelly

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Speaker 3: Evans and the Death Star for this critty. The basic

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Speaker 3: idea here is a fifteen percent teriff on Mercedes will

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Speaker 3: cost German auto companies billions annually. Is that off the mark?

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Speaker 4: It's not off the mark at all, because not only

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Speaker 4: are they dealing with the tariff threat, they're also dealing

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Speaker 4: with an overcapacity threat from China as well. And if

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Speaker 4: there was a rare show of unity between France and

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Speaker 4: Germany in terms of backing the likes of Ersla Vonderline,

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Speaker 4: there was also a rare show of unity in between

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Speaker 4: Erslavanderline and Donald Trump in terms of saying some very

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Speaker 4: key words which they addressed the concern of over capacity,

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Speaker 4: which they didn't name it, but it is kind of

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Speaker 4: a veiled pointing to China ultimately, So when we're talking

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Speaker 4: about the car sector, that's really where Germany is feeling

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Speaker 4: the heat, not just in Mercedes, but also because they're

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Speaker 4: trying to subsidize or at least help and rescue their

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Speaker 4: car industry by leaning into defense. The problem with this

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Speaker 4: trade deal is that it relies on the European military

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Speaker 4: spend to be spent on American defense, not the German

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Speaker 4: Rheine mettal hensolt sob, etc.

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Speaker 2: Pritty, what's the.

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Speaker 5: Sense around Europe this morning as to boy, did the

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Speaker 5: European Union just cave to the US. Here it didn't

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Speaker 5: seem to be much of a fight.

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Speaker 2: Put up by the EU.

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Speaker 5: And I know, you know European Commissioner or Sir Vander

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Speaker 5: Lane is saying, hey, this is stability, this is predictability

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Speaker 5: that has value.

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Speaker 2: But was it a cave.

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Speaker 4: Geopolitically it was absolutely a cave, no question about it,

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Speaker 4: given that from the beginning they said it was zero

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Speaker 4: or nothing. They were also pushing back on a lot

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Speaker 4: of French forces. Emmanuel mccron and some of his officers

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Speaker 4: have been very vocal about using the anti coersion tool

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Speaker 4: to taking the Chinese approach, which is matching each.

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Speaker 5: Tear up I for I.

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Speaker 4: The problem with that is the European economy just isn't

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Speaker 4: that of China. They don't have the fiscal spend, they

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Speaker 4: don't have the mobility, they don't have the companies and

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Speaker 4: the national champions that the US and China does. That

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Speaker 4: being said, fifteen percent is considered a win. You can

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Speaker 4: see that in the European markets today because largely these

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Speaker 4: markets the stock six hundred had already priced in anywhere

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Speaker 4: between ten to fifteen percent depending on who you ask.

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Speaker 3: This is Friday, folks, seems ages ago so three days

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Speaker 3: ago the Japan Times came out with a government you know,

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Speaker 3: clearly a government derived quote saying the Japan Deal of

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Speaker 3: X number of days ago Critty is basically up to

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Speaker 3: the private corporate of Japan to fund businesses in the US.

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Speaker 3: Do you sense we're going to get the same thing

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Speaker 3: from Brussels where they're going to say, yeah, we're going

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Speaker 3: to invest in the United States, but it's up to

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Speaker 3: semens of.

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Speaker 4: Germany the deal is identical, which is crazy because these

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Speaker 4: are two completely different geographies. We had a guest on

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Speaker 4: the show today talk to us about calling Japan the

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Speaker 4: banker to the United States, and I think this was

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Speaker 4: really key about this investment promise five hundred and fifty

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Speaker 4: billion dollars on top of existing expenditures from Japan, the

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Speaker 4: majority of which are loans to the United States. Is

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Speaker 4: unclear whether that's to the government, to corporations, to the people,

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Speaker 4: or even just more buying of treasuries.

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Speaker 2: Unclear on that.

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Speaker 4: Whereas if we're using the same model for Europe, for example,

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Speaker 4: it's not the same thing because they're knocking on a

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Speaker 4: door that provides likes of lg Ran.

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Speaker 3: I know you're living in Europe, now, Critty, so you're

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Speaker 3: going to take all of August off, unlike Saydio Americans.

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Speaker 3: But Critty, before you go on your thirty day thirty

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Speaker 3: two days holiday. I mean, when I look at this,

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Speaker 3: where are we August fifteenth or September fifteenth, August one date?

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Speaker 3: Lots of hands shakes, everything's a massive deal, a massive

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Speaker 3: with so much winning going on. Where are we September fifteenth?

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Speaker 4: September fifteenth? Our focus is on three countries that are

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Speaker 4: outside of Europe, and even the Europeans are watching this.

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Speaker 4: In relationship between Canada and Mexico, that was the answer

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Speaker 4: we're expected to get this week, but also China. The

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Speaker 4: expectation in Stockholm right now is simply that these a

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Speaker 4: win in Stockholm between the US and China would simply

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Speaker 4: be kicking the can down the road. So if in

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Speaker 4: September fifteenth, US and Chinese officials are still talking, that

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Speaker 4: is considered a win by probably every country in the

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Speaker 4: world right now.

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Speaker 5: So, Critty, within across Europe here in your reporting this morning,

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Speaker 5: is there a sense of just release that we've got

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Speaker 5: this trade tensions uncertainty behind the europinion or are folks

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Speaker 5: actually getting out.

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Speaker 2: Their pencil calculation and saying how much is this going

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Speaker 2: to cost us?

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Speaker 4: They're relieved, and they're relieved because not only is it

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Speaker 4: the fifteen percent that stability, it's relief that it's not stackable.

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Speaker 4: It's not fifteen percent flat plus autos, plus pharma, et cetera.

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Speaker 4: Where there is concern are specifically in the drink making sector.

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Speaker 4: Wine and spirits is not a part of this deal.

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Speaker 4: This is a very key crucial sector to Spain and France.

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Speaker 4: Think about all the wine, think about all the champagne,

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Speaker 4: all the prosecco. Whoa, this is important. This is what

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Speaker 4: the Europeans thrive on. The other piece of this is

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Speaker 4: also a bit of a playbook from the Biden administration.

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Speaker 4: Steel and aluminum tariffs that went to quotas under the

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Speaker 4: Biden administration went back to terroriffs under Trump, and now

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Speaker 4: may potentially go back to quotas. That's something that's not

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Speaker 4: just a sticking point with the EU but the UK

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Speaker 4: as well.

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Speaker 3: Are pink French bow ties removed from the tariffs?

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Speaker 4: They wear ties here, They don't wear ties here.

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Speaker 2: She's becoming so flippant. Yeah she's moved.

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Speaker 6: I know.

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Speaker 4: Okay, did you go to all about like three buttons down,

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Speaker 4: open collar, color blazer.

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Speaker 3: When do you take off for the month of August

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Speaker 3: you have you're going to work August first, or you're like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: chill I thirty one.

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Speaker 4: Tom, Tom. The Europeans are taking advantage of me. They

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Speaker 4: think I'm a workaholic because I'm an American. I'm actually

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Speaker 4: working all of August while everyone else gets to take

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Speaker 4: their summer.

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Speaker 3: Exactly. Welcome to London. I've been through that act. CREATI

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Speaker 3: group to thank you so much. Terrific brief. Seriously, she's

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Speaker 3: just killer at getting to zeitgeist going.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: What a pleasure and so ill well timed I should

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Speaker 3: say to speak to Elizabeth. Elizabeth Economy joins Us Hargrove

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Speaker 3: Senior Fellow the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. She is

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Speaker 3: my definitive voice on China, doctor Economy, Thank you so

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Speaker 3: much for joining us. If you were to write a

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Speaker 3: book today, as you've done so many times, about the

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Speaker 3: leadership of China of President Zi. How strong is he

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Speaker 3: going into the fall of two thousand and twenty five.

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Speaker 7: I think he's very strong right now.

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Speaker 8: I know there have been a lot of rumors in

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Speaker 8: the media that his position is somehow not stable, that

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Speaker 8: there are competed forces that are seeking to undermine him.

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Speaker 7: But I think from every vantage point, whether we're.

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Speaker 8: Talking about the Chinese economy or we're talking about how

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Speaker 8: he stood firm with President Trump in the trade negotiations,

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Speaker 8: I think that or China's technology rise, I think that

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Speaker 8: there are very few people right now who could stand

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Speaker 8: up and challenge him.

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Speaker 3: There are articles out of Japan a Japanese deal Oops nevermind.

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Speaker 3: This is Gilda Radnor, doctor economy. I know, you know

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Speaker 3: Gilda Radnor's trade theory. Two pharmaceuticals removed from the deal.

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Speaker 3: Oops never mind. Maybe we'll see that in late August.

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Speaker 3: Are we going to get a written traditional trade deal

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Speaker 3: in China or is it going to be an oops

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Speaker 3: never mind? Trade deal?

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Speaker 8: I mean, I think there will be a part of

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Speaker 8: the trade deal that will be oops never mind. Certainly,

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Speaker 8: I think every one of these trade deals has that

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Speaker 8: element to it. But I do think that there are

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Speaker 8: some parts of this that are real, and we'll have.

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Speaker 7: To see what comes out of it.

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Speaker 8: I doubt we're going to see much coming out of

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Speaker 8: this particular set of talks. I think what we're going

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Speaker 8: to get is an extension, perhaps as much as three months,

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Speaker 8: according to Treasury Secretary Besant, and that would take us,

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Speaker 8: I think, right up to the point where we might

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Speaker 8: anticipate a summit between President G and President Trump. And

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Speaker 8: President Trump has said he wants to meet with President G.

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Speaker 8: They've exchanged facts and forths with invitations, and it's right

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Speaker 8: timed perfectly, frankly with the Apex Summit in Leader summit

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Speaker 8: in Korea in November.

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Speaker 7: So I think that, to me, is the timing.

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Speaker 8: I don't I'm not expecting any big surprises coming out

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Speaker 8: of the current set of trade talks in Stockholm.

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Speaker 5: Elizabeth, How does China view its position visa v.

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Speaker 2: The US? Here?

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Speaker 5: Do they feel like they're in a strong negotiating position,

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Speaker 5: not just about trade but just about everything? How did

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Speaker 5: they view themselves?

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Speaker 2: You think?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, I think there are I think the

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Speaker 8: US has gotten some leverage over the past couple of

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Speaker 8: months as we've seen a number of these trade deals

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Speaker 8: come to fruition despite the oop's components to them. But

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Speaker 8: I think overall, certainly they view themselves in a strong position.

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Speaker 7: Again, they stood toe to toe.

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Speaker 8: They hold the key card, which are those rare earth

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Speaker 8: elements that the United States so desperately needs. And so

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Speaker 8: I think at any point now the United States know

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Speaker 8: that China can turn this figot on or off with

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Speaker 8: those rare earth elements.

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Speaker 7: So I think they feel pretty good.

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Speaker 8: And I will say they have spent a lot of

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Speaker 8: time over the past six months really were suppying their

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Speaker 8: trade away from the United States. So if you look

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Speaker 8: at what's happened to US agricultural exports, energy exports all

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Speaker 8: have sort of fallen off a cliff. China has other

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Speaker 8: places it can go for a soybeans, you know, Brazil,

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Speaker 8: Argentina does not need the United States. So frankly speaking,

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Speaker 8: when we get that trade deal, I'm afraid basically it's

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Speaker 8: just going to be trying to recoup what we've lost

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Speaker 8: in the past six months.

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Speaker 3: Elizabeth Economy, with this we gain and she's with a

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Speaker 3: Hoover institution definitive back to her classic The River Runs

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Speaker 3: Black out of the University of Michigan. We welcome all

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Speaker 3: of you on your commute acrass the nation. Good morning

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Speaker 3: Serious XM Channel one twenty one. Apple car Play Android

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Speaker 3: Auto Android Auto getting a bigger and bigger use every

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Speaker 3: day on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. A lot of

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Speaker 3: other value add there, including Joe and Tracy on Odd

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Speaker 3: Lots as well with Doctor Economy, our Paul.

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Speaker 2: Sweeney, Elizabeth.

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Speaker 5: How does the Chinese consumer they doing these days? As

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Speaker 5: we think about the Chinese economy, you know a lot

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Speaker 5: of folks are saying, where's the Chinese consumer, Where's the

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Speaker 5: Chinese tourist? How was the Chinese consumer these days?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 8: I think the Chinese consumer is still struggling. You know,

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Speaker 8: China has done a number of programs over the past

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Speaker 8: six to nine months, and these sort of trade in goods.

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Speaker 8: They've put in some so basically you can trade in

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Speaker 8: a washing machine and get you know, fifteen percent off

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Speaker 8: your new washing machine. Oh, they've done it for cars.

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Speaker 8: They've done some policy support in the real estate sector.

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Speaker 8: So you've seen a slight uptick in some areas. But frankly,

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Speaker 8: the World Bank came out with its report last month

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Speaker 8: that had a good summary of what's been going on

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Speaker 8: with Chinese consumption. And what you see is it across

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Speaker 8: every sort of sector aside from food. Chinese consumers are

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Speaker 8: simply not spending and so you've seen the decline in

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Speaker 8: spending from twenty fifteen to twenty twenty four really significant.

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Speaker 8: They just don't trust in the Chinese economy. So I

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Speaker 8: think this is a big problem for China. There's a

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Speaker 8: lot of talk among local officials what should we be doing.

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Speaker 7: I think the central.

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Speaker 8: Government is concerned, certainly, and obviously we're concerned, right we

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Speaker 8: want the Chinese consumer to start buying American products.

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Speaker 3: Doctor Economy, I mean, you're on a Stanford You're in

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Speaker 3: a fancy room with fancy people like John Taylor, Michael Basking,

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Speaker 3: the Giant Shad Jones, the growth economics, and well, if

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Speaker 3: we get disinflation or outright deflation in your soggy China,

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Speaker 3: do they export that deflation? And with an EU trade

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Speaker 3: deal attack consumption tax on Americans, do we get a

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Speaker 3: new bout of disinflation and deflation in Europe? Or dare

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Speaker 3: I say in the United States?

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Speaker 2: You know what?

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Speaker 7: I think you need to have Michael Boskin on for

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Speaker 7: that one talk.

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Speaker 8: All I can tell you is that China has been

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Speaker 8: suffering from deflation for the past couple of years. They

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Speaker 8: have been trying to export their way, you know, out

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Speaker 8: of it. Clearly there is some discussion, I would say,

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Speaker 8: among the Chinese leadership about this involution.

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Speaker 7: So they are concerned.

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Speaker 8: That, you know, within China now you have such intense

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Speaker 8: competition in sectors like solar and evs those areas where

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Speaker 8: they are exporting their over capacity, that you're going from

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Speaker 8: two hundred companies down to ten companies. People, don't you know,

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Speaker 8: they are concerned about employment, They're concerned about these rock

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Speaker 8: body prices.

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Speaker 7: So I think there are some there's.

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Speaker 8: Some potential for some structural shifts within China, but I'm

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Speaker 8: not seeing movie before yet on that.

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Speaker 3: Paul, should we go inside baseball?

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Speaker 2: Sure?

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Speaker 3: Okay, we're going to go inside baseball, folks. So we're

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Speaker 3: doing a scarlet from Westchester. Just emailed in. Nice scarlet food,

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Speaker 3: just emailed it. Hey, stupid, stop making jokes with Liz Economy,

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Speaker 3: Get serious, Liz. In Taiwan there is a recall election.

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Speaker 3: The recall supporters said Opposition KMT too close to China.

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Speaker 3: There's two parties in what are they arguing about?

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Speaker 8: They are actually three parties now, but two of them

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Speaker 8: are closely aligned, the TPP and the KMT, and then

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Speaker 8: you had the DPP. So what the DPP and the

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Speaker 8: other two are arguing about is number one what you

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Speaker 8: just articulated what Scarlett is so right about, which is

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Speaker 8: that the KMT seems to be making a lot of

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Speaker 8: overtures to Beijing talking about peaceful reunification is not something

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Speaker 8: that the majority of the Taiwanese people support. There's a

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Speaker 8: big difference over defense spending. The US has been pushing

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Speaker 8: Taiwan has been pushing the leader Leijing of the DPP,

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Speaker 8: which is the party in power right now, to spend

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Speaker 8: more on defense, and he's trying, but he can't get

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Speaker 8: it through the legislature, which is controlled by those other

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Speaker 8: two parties. So this recall election, which lie precipitated, so

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Speaker 8: had they got thirty one seats so to have these

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Speaker 8: recall elections. They had twenty four this past Saturday that

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Speaker 8: came up for recall election and they all failed. So

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Speaker 8: what that means it's a kind of a It's unfortunate

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Speaker 8: for President Lai because he's really to get some movement

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Speaker 8: in the legislative yuon so he can push forward his agenda,

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Speaker 8: so it's going to make it more difficult for him.

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Speaker 7: They're still some to come in August, but you know,

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Speaker 7: I don't know that we're going to be a different results.

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Speaker 3: Let me squeeze in one more question, just the majesty

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Speaker 3: of your work. Back to the River runs Black. We

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Speaker 3: are expanding. Biden did this and Trump does this with

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Speaker 3: a US Navy new positioning on Palowan, the long skinny

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Speaker 3: island of the Philippines that borders the South China Sea.

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Speaker 3: Do you see an American military expansion to defend Taiwan?

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Speaker 3: Is that's what's going on here.

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Speaker 8: I mean the South China See and Taiwan are two

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Speaker 8: different issues in terms of American projection of power. Day

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Speaker 8: they all feed to the same area. You're right to

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Speaker 8: kind of build up in the Indo Pacific, and I

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Speaker 8: think it's unclear right now. This administration has said that,

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Speaker 8: you know, our first priority national security is border security.

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Speaker 7: Our second is the Indo Pacific.

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Speaker 8: But I don't know that we can trust you know,

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Speaker 8: cousin Trump has his sort of idea about spheres of influence,

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Speaker 8: and it's not clear to me that in the case

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Speaker 8: of a military attack against Taiwan, that the US that

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Speaker 8: President Trump will be willing to put troops on the ground.

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Speaker 7: Certainly, I hope that.

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Speaker 8: We will come to the defense of our of our

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Speaker 8: strong partner and ally, Taiwan, but I think that remains

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Speaker 8: to be seen.

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Speaker 3: This has been wonderful. Thank you so much. As we

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Speaker 3: speak to Elizabeth the first in turn Bury, Lizzie Burden,

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Speaker 3: we speak to Elizabeth the second, doctor Economy at Stanford

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Speaker 3: on China.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Boe Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 3: This is a joy. If you look at Eco go,

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Speaker 3: I think I can say I've never seen a richer

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Speaker 3: week of data. The back end is going to be Friday,

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Speaker 3: ten am. The Michigan statistics, the emotion, the mood out

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Speaker 3: of ann Arbor, August one ism numbers. John Farreoh tells

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Speaker 3: me that's important, and then small matter after the FED

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Speaker 3: Meeting of Jobs Day, changing non firm payrolls at a

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Speaker 3: puny one hundred and nine thousand joining us out Tiffany

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Speaker 3: Wilding for a really needed brief year with a Pacific

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Speaker 3: investment management company. Tiffany, let's start at the back here.

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Speaker 3: On Jobs Day as well, will the chairman know the

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Speaker 3: jobs data Wednesday afternoon when the Fed decides.

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Speaker 6: So our understanding is the Fed chair like others in government,

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Speaker 6: get it the day before the meeting, I think after

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Speaker 6: five pm. So our understanding is know they won't know

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Speaker 6: what the job's number is on Wednesday when they need

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Speaker 6: to discuss, you know. But I think, just taking a

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Speaker 6: step back, I'm not sure if they did it would

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Speaker 6: it would really matter that much. I think they've pretty

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Speaker 6: much signaled pretty clearly here that they're not They're going

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Speaker 6: to hold right steady. They need a little bit more

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Speaker 6: information before they start to move again, and we think

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Speaker 6: that happens in the back half of this year.

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Speaker 3: Jerome Schneider taught me how to analyze the residual, which

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Speaker 3: is the real ten year yield tifty. I know this

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Speaker 3: is above you know what you do. It's secret stuff

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Speaker 3: of Jerome Schneider. But I've noticed that the real yield's

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Speaker 3: not moving because there's a new sustained belief in an

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Speaker 3: inflation number. Do you agree with that that the summary

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Speaker 3: is a permanent higher inflation.

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Speaker 6: Well, I think that really yields are high because there's

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Speaker 6: this expectation that you could get some inflationary pressures from tariffs,

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Speaker 6: and the Federal Reserve has been on pause all year

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Speaker 6: because they're worried about that. Inflation. You know, even if

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Speaker 6: it's temporary in the back half of this year into

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Speaker 6: next could be problematic because we're coming off of this

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Speaker 6: period of elevated inflation, and you could have people that

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Speaker 6: are adjusting higher their inflation expectations. You mentioned the Michigan survey.

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Speaker 6: It's come off in recent months in terms of people's

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Speaker 6: expectations for inflation, but nevertheless it's been elevated. So I

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Speaker 6: think that's what the concern is for the Federal Reserve here, Tiffany.

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Speaker 5: Given all the crosswinds out there in this economy, whether

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Speaker 5: it be tariffs or policy trade policy coming out of

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Speaker 5: the Washington DC, the consumer seems to be hanging in there.

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Speaker 5: How do you view this US and consumer today?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, so I think there's there's there's goods,

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Speaker 6: there's good parts and bad parts. So I think you've

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Speaker 6: seen a lot of volatility and consumption over the past

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Speaker 6: several quarters. And and the reason is we think consumers

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Speaker 6: rightly so expect expected tariffs, and they have tried to

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Speaker 6: purchase goods ahead of those terror related price increases. So

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Speaker 6: what we saw was consumption, real consumption growth that was

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Speaker 6: growing four percent on average in the back half of

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Speaker 6: last year. People were buying durable goods, autos, household furniture

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Speaker 6: or things like that. And then this year that's cooled

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Speaker 6: off quite a bit. Even though we haven't seen a

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Speaker 6: lot of pass through or slower than expected pass through

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Speaker 6: onto prices of the tariffs, consumers are basically taking a break.

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Speaker 6: So we've had real consumption growth that's averaged closer to

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Speaker 6: one percent in the first half of this year. We're

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Speaker 6: going to get confirmation of that, we think with the

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Speaker 6: Q two GDP statistics this year. And then the question is,

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Speaker 6: you know, what does inflation, how do companies pass on inflation,

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Speaker 6: and how does that impact real incomes and therefore real

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Speaker 6: consumption in the back half of this year.

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Speaker 5: It seems like Tiffany that I guess from what we've

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Speaker 5: heard from a lot of companies that they're going to

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Speaker 5: take some of their cost increases tariff related or not

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Speaker 5: in their profit margins and as opposed to passing along

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Speaker 5: to consumers. Is that something we can expect going forward.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot of good

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Speaker 6: reasons for that. And when we look at, you know,

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Speaker 6: the balance of data, we see that, you know, foreign

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Speaker 6: suppliers are not paying a lot of these tariffs, and

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Speaker 6: just looking at the consumer price data, you know, we

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Speaker 6: expect or we estimate that around fifty percent or so

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Speaker 6: of of whatever the pass through you expected was has

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Speaker 6: been passed through so far. So a lot of this

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Speaker 6: is being absorbed by corporate profits. And you know, we

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Speaker 6: think there's there's reason of leave that can continue. This

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00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,919
Speaker 6: can be a slow pass through. And the reason for

439
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 6: that is, you you did have legislation that came out

440
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 6: that had pretty big business tax incentives. So there will

441
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 6: be some offsets in terms of corporate taxes paid overall

442
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 6: as a result of these big tax incentives, you know.

443
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 6: But the other thing is is I think there's a

444
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 6: lot of uncertainty around where these tariffs will land. We

445
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 6: have lawsuits going on in the background here that you

446
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 6: know that that legal experts suggest there's there's pretty good

447
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 6: reason to believe that some of these tariffs will will

448
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 6: be struck down by the courts and will have to

449
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 6: be repaid back by the government. So I think folks

450
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 6: are just kind of waiting to see what's going to happen.

451
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 3: I'm going to get the calendar out here, Tiffany Wilding,

452
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 3: I can do that. Folks at fomcgo on the Bloomberg

453
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 3: July thirty. September seventeen, it's when the Red Sox, you know,

454
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 3: off of trade deadline, they're going to be rocking it.

455
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 3: October twenty nine is after the Red Sox take the

456
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 3: World Series. December ten is when Tiffany goes to Tahiti

457
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 3: for a month. You know, you look at the Fed dates, Tiffany,

458
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:32,640
Speaker 3: and the backdrop to me is nothing more than a stimulus.

459
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 3: Is that the bottom line for bond guys at Pimco,

460
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 3: men and women at Pimco managing debt money, it is

461
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:44,240
Speaker 3: an aura of stimulus into twenty twenty six.

462
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 6: Yeah, well, well certainly there's If you look at the

463
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 6: way that the structure, the way the tax legislation, tax

464
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:57,119
Speaker 6: and spending legislation was structured, you are going to get

465
00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,439
Speaker 6: a lots of money. That's hitting the economy in the

466
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:02,360
Speaker 6: back half of this year in the front of next year,

467
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:05,640
Speaker 6: and that's when folks get their refunds when they file

468
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 6: their taxes. Those refunds are going to also incorporate any

469
00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:12,640
Speaker 6: sort of taxes they paid on overtime or on tips.

470
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 6: They're going to get that back in a refund early

471
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 6: next year. So there is going to be a lot

472
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:20,640
Speaker 6: of government stimulus money hitting next year early next year.

473
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 6: But you have to think about the offsets of that,

474
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 6: which is that around a three hundred and fifty billion

475
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:30,720
Speaker 6: on an annualized basis is being paid in additional tariffs,

476
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:33,199
Speaker 6: and as we just discussed, we think corporates are paying

477
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,880
Speaker 6: the lion's share of that. So you know, we are

478
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 6: I think on net you have you have a government

479
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 6: that is the fiscal impulses is about you know, is

480
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 6: about a neutral or negative on net. Although you are

481
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 6: going to get some big stimulus refunds related refunds next year.

482
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:51,919
Speaker 3: Thank you, thank you, thank you for this brief. We

483
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:56,719
Speaker 3: needed this ginormous economic week folks. Again differently Welding Pimco.

484
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

485
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

486
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,960
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us

487
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

488
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 2: Gut John Tucker, Pauls.

489
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 5: When you're live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio

490
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 5: along with Tom Keen. We welcome to our studio Curst Sleiewak.

491
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 5: He is the founder of the Guardian Angels. Mister Sleewah

492
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,360
Speaker 5: is a Republican candidate New York City.

493
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 2: May Very patient, Curtis, it's very patient. Thank you for waiting.

494
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 2: We're listening to President Trump and Prime Minister.

495
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 9: Heres far more important than what we're going to be

496
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 9: talking about.

497
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 5: Curtis, talk to us about New York City. Your view

498
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,399
Speaker 5: of New York City. What does the city need right now,

499
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 5: right now?

500
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 9: Just from the business perspective, you think about it with

501
00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 9: the seventeen and a half percent corporate text, when you

502
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 9: include the state and city nine percent for the city,

503
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:58,080
Speaker 9: and you compare it to where everybody is fleeing to

504
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:02,640
Speaker 9: Florida or Georgia, North cal Line of South Carolina, Texas, Tennessee.

505
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 2: It's prohibitive to keeping business here.

506
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 9: The personal income tax at about nine percent, in the

507
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 9: city and then nine percent of the sales tax for

508
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 9: us to keep business from fleeing, we've got to start

509
00:27:15,280 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 9: slashing taxes, at least those that a mayor can control.

510
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 9: And he's done nothing to fight open He nothing to

511
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 9: go up there and to battle the governor and also

512
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 9: the state legislature and try to preserve the business climate

513
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,199
Speaker 9: of New York City. Just walking to this studio of

514
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 9: yours at Bloomberg today, all the storefronts that are closed,

515
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 9: the retail storefronts.

516
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 2: Why congestion pricing.

517
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 9: It has limited the amount of foot traffic for merchants,

518
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 9: many of them small business owners, mid sized business owners,

519
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 9: and the chain stores.

520
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 2: And they just can't pay their lease at the end

521
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 2: of the month.

522
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 9: So this state, in this city especially, does everything to

523
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 9: basically make it impossible to stay.

524
00:27:55,000 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 10: My daughter is desperate to move into Manhattan, desperate for

525
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,320
Speaker 10: her to move out of the house she would have

526
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 10: to get we calculated this, to pay Manhattan rent, she'd

527
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 10: have to have ten roommates. What is the plan to

528
00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 10: make housing rents more affordable in Manhattan?

529
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:16,439
Speaker 9: Well, you're right, I happened to be all of New

530
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,440
Speaker 9: York City. Yeah, I'm married to a millennial Nancy who

531
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 9: is an e attorney.

532
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 2: How mut you work that out? It was an upgrade

533
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 2: for me.

534
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 9: But she went to Brooklyn Law and she has huge

535
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 9: student loans to pay, as so many millennials do. That's

536
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 9: why Zorhan has resonated, you got to pay your student

537
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 9: loans first, then you got to pay your rent. Then,

538
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,320
Speaker 9: as you mentioned, you already went maybe to four years

539
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 9: of college, got a graduate degree. You lived in dormatory

540
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 9: style housing. You come into New York City, you're now

541
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 9: living in a dormitory again. You're making one hundred and

542
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 9: fifty thousand maybe as a financial analyst, a CPA, and attorney.

543
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 2: You just can't make ends meet. So you're angry.

544
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 9: So you've got to provide a means for these young

545
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 9: people to stay here because they're being attracted also out

546
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 9: of state with their skill levels.

547
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 2: We promise them, you.

548
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 9: Go to college, get a good education, get a skill level,

549
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 9: and you'll live the American dream.

550
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 2: They can't even get a mortgage for a house.

551
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 9: They can't even buy a car, and that's something we

552
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 9: have to address in this city also nationally.

553
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 3: Curtis, I ask is a courtesy. Over a decade ago,

554
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 3: you had a cancer scare. How's your health?

555
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:26,560
Speaker 2: I did?

556
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 9: I had prostate cancer and I had it removed. Maybe

557
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 9: worse mistake in my life, because now they have about

558
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 9: twelve other remedies.

559
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 3: Science has really come on.

560
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, absolutely.

561
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 9: But I lost a great colleague, Bernard mcgirky WABC, the

562
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 9: healthiest guy there. But he never got a simple PSA test,

563
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:48,959
Speaker 9: a simple prick of the finger, the blood test. I

564
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 9: advise everyone listening out there, make sure your men folks

565
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 9: get that PSA test.

566
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 3: New You're post sympathetic to you. They've got an article

567
00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 3: just in the list. I'm gonna say, forty eight hours

568
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 3: Times Prediction Markets forecast socialist landslide for New York City

569
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 3: mayor race. What can you do to halt that? Do

570
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 3: you have a timeline to the first Tuesday of November

571
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 3: where you say I'm stepping aside in support of whoever?

572
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 9: Well, if you've noticed in the last three weeks, I've

573
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 9: been surging, and in fact, the New York Post Business

574
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 9: section said I was the winner of the week. Not

575
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 9: only my polling numbers are up, but also my pathway

576
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 9: to victory because now you have four main candidates street Democrats.

577
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 2: Zoran is still a Democrat, even though these are.

578
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 9: Socialists Cuomo and Adams who have been a failed mayor

579
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 9: and a failed governor. And then you have me, the

580
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 9: Republican candidate, who starts with about twenty eight percent. I

581
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 9: also have to protect the animal's line. Never before in

582
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 9: the history of electoral politics, on any independent line, no

583
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 9: kill shelters and put animal abuses in jail. With that,

584
00:30:53,560 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 9: I expect to get up upwards of about thirty five

585
00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 9: percent of the vote, and I could be your next mayor.

586
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 2: You have sixteen cases.

587
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 9: Well, six cats. Now we had sixteen in the last

588
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 9: election cycle.

589
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty one apartment.

590
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 9: It's small, but we were rescuing cats who are not

591
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 9: being taken in by the shelters.

592
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 2: Remember with the lockdown and pandemic Hurtis.

593
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 5: Talk to us about mister mum Donnie. What does it

594
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 5: say to you that he had such a successful primary.

595
00:31:20,720 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 5: What does this say to you about the city of

596
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:22,959
Speaker 5: New York?

597
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 2: Right now?

598
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 9: He worked hard, and Andrew Cuomo who mailed it in,

599
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,479
Speaker 9: who thought he was going to have a coronation, and

600
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 9: now he's apologized for not working hard to beat the Socialists.

601
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 9: I say it's the Democrats who let the socialists in

602
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 9: Remember Bernie Sanders was never a Democrat, is still not

603
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 9: a Democrat. But Hillary wanted a show. She had competition

604
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:46,959
Speaker 9: in twenty sixteen. He basically won the caucuses and the primaries,

605
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 9: she got the super delegates, and then what happened. Joe

606
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 9: Crowley didn't run a race against AOC she won, Andrew

607
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 9: Cromo didn't run a race against Sohan Mandami. So the

608
00:31:56,920 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 9: Democrats have turned their party over to the socialists. That's

609
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 9: why the only thing you could do is hope for

610
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 9: the Republican because remember during Giuliani and Bloomberg that was

611
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 9: twenty years, but Taki twelve years as governor, Republican, no chaos,

612
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 9: no corruption. The Blasio Cuomo and Adams, all we've had

613
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 9: is chaos and corruption. You've got to go to the

614
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 9: Republican route. And I'm the only Republican candidate in this.

615
00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 2: Has Momdani locked up the younger vote, No, he is not. Now.

616
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 9: I don't see Adams, no CMO going after the millennials

617
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 9: or gen Zers.

618
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 2: But remember my ability to organize.

619
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 9: Guardian Angels, not just here but all over the world,

620
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 9: thirteen countries, one hundred and thirty cities, over a total

621
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 9: of forty six years is based on me being able

622
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 9: to recruit volunteers who are younger than I am, who

623
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 9: fit into the category of millennials and gen Zias. So

624
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 9: I'm in all the communities that he overwhelmingly beat Como

625
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 9: in the Democratic primary, Long Island City as Storia, which

626
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 9: is his base the Lower East Side, and they're all

627
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 9: millennials and gen Zeis who will join your effort as

628
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 9: they did the Trump effort when he beat Harris convincingly,

629
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 9: he got a lot of mail Millennials and a lot

630
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 9: of mail gen Zs because they targeted them.

631
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 5: Talk to us about crime and the New York City

632
00:33:11,280 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 5: Police Department.

633
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 9: We need at least seven thousand more cops, and I

634
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 9: have a remedy to do that. First off, Jimmy Dolan

635
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 9: a Madison Square garden who pays no property taxes. He's

636
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 9: going to be paying his fair share. And universities like

637
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 9: NYU and Columbia are going to try to touch the

638
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 9: money that they use for teaching and for the teachers themselves.

639
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 9: But they buy up a lot of property that has

640
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 9: nothing to do in Morningside Heights in Greenwich Village with

641
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 9: education or housing for teachers, as students, and they should

642
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 9: be forced to pay their fair share of property tax.

643
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 9: That should be enough money to hire seven thousand cops

644
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 9: that we desperately need. And we have to give them

645
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 9: back their qualified immunity. Every civil servant, all three hundred

646
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 9: thousand in the city are protected by the insurance we

647
00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 9: pay for should they be sued, except the police, state legislature,

648
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 9: the city council in twenty nineteen, and then Governor Cuomo

649
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 9: stripped them.

650
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 2: Of qualified immunity.

651
00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 9: Notice who's protected by qualified immunity now with the thirteen

652
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 9: sexual harassment suits. As Tom DiNapoli, the state Controller, has

653
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 9: told us Andrew Cuomo we keep paying his legal bills.

654
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 9: Is when he was governor. He's protected by qualified immunity.

655
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 9: We have to give that back to the cops so

656
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 9: they can go out there and do the job as

657
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 9: they've been trained to do.

658
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 10: In the green room, you were listening to Donald Trump

659
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:31,320
Speaker 10: as we carried him live with Kiri Starmer from Scotland.

660
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 10: What's your relationship with the president as a Republican?

661
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 9: Oh, I go way back with Donald Trump with a

662
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 9: consummate New York as we've had a love hate relationship.

663
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 9: If you've noticed of late. He has embraced Eric Adams

664
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 9: because he got him out of the court process of

665
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 9: the Department of Justice. I know intimately the details of

666
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 9: destroyed Donus because he did that when he was running

667
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 9: against me in twenty twenty one. Eric Adams belongs in jail.

668
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 9: Now he's at the Beck and call the president. The

669
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 9: President has said nice things about Andrew Cuomo, and it's

670
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 9: basically just referred to me as a Republican candidate. I

671
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 9: would suggest, with the world issues, the President just stay

672
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 9: out of the local election.

673
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 2: To stay out of.

674
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 3: It, Curtis, I got to go back here a bit.

675
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 3: And I say this with great respect for John Lindsay

676
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 3: and a Republican of another time. In Place nineteen eighty

677
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 3: Eldamato stuns the world and beats Jacob Javits by fifty

678
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:30,560
Speaker 3: five percent. Take then he wins on a split Democratic

679
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 3: ticket forty five percent. Eldamato wins. Aldamato wins by a

680
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:38,440
Speaker 3: small fifty three percent against Mark Green. This is staggering.

681
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 3: Through the nineteen eighties, there's a resurgent Republican party. Mister

682
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 3: Trump has proven that people go Paul New Jersey. It

683
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 3: could go Republicans or long Island again or North up

684
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:54,560
Speaker 3: the Hudson rivery. How do you perceive the Republican Party

685
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 3: doing better in the boroughs? How's that going to happen

686
00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 3: in Brooklyn, in Queens Dare I say the twelve Republicans

687
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 3: in Manhattan? It could happen. How does a Republican Party

688
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 3: take the city.

689
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 9: Well, if you look at the polling data of late

690
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:12,439
Speaker 9: in which I'm surgeon and Eric Adams can barely get

691
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 9: into double digits, I have thirty five percent of the

692
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,800
Speaker 9: vote in the Bronx. So you look to Brooklyn and

693
00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 9: Queens and obviously Staten Island, it's blue collar, working class people, homeowners.

694
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 9: That's why I'm opposed to the City of Yes, because

695
00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,160
Speaker 9: we give the developers and the realtors and opportunity to

696
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:31,000
Speaker 9: go in and take single and two and three and

697
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 9: four family homes from.

698
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 2: People who have decided to improve.

699
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 3: Cut to the chase. What are you going to do

700
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 3: with the NYPD?

701
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 2: What we had?

702
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 3: How many mayor candidates.

703
00:36:40,160 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 2: Have we had?

704
00:36:41,000 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 3: Five, six, seven, eight? You've been doing this for pushing

705
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:49,760
Speaker 3: fifty years. Mario Cuomo got behind you a million years ago,

706
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,720
Speaker 3: the NYPD. What's the consensus ball? We're down thirty thousand

707
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:57,919
Speaker 3: police officers. What are you going to do day one

708
00:36:58,400 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 3: to help NYPD on?

709
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:02,879
Speaker 2: You keep Jessica Tish right there if she's willing to serve.

710
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,720
Speaker 9: She had to give one police plaza a badly needed

711
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 9: colonic on the fourteenth floor.

712
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 2: What colonic? Come on? Police commissioner had.

713
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 9: So tainted the role of the police commission And worse,

714
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 9: Jeffrey Madri, head of Patrol, turned that thirteenth floor into caligula.

715
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 9: They were all Eric Adams cronies. The best choice he

716
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 9: made was Jessica Tish to clean up his mess. And

717
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 9: I think if she wanted to stay for stability, you

718
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 9: keep her as police commissioner and you'll go a long

719
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:38,800
Speaker 9: way into his storing the glory and the tradition of

720
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 9: the NYPD which is maintainted by Eric Adams and his cronies.

721
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 10: And just to be clear before you go, congestion pricing is.

722
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 9: Put congestion pricing I side with the Secretary of Transportation

723
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 9: and also the President.

724
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 2: It's got to go.

725
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 9: It has led to so many businesses closing south of

726
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 9: sixtieth Street. The other tax are the many taxes that

727
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 9: have been put on New Yorkers and those from out

728
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 9: of state and affect blue collar working class people and

729
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 9: tradesmen and tradeswomen.

730
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 2: It's got to go. And you know something, Mandami says,

731
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 2: free bus fare and.

732
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 9: People get upset after people don't pay their bus fare

733
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 9: to begin with, how about enforcement of fair evasion? Adams

734
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 9: hasn't done it, Homo didn't do it. As governor, Sleewer

735
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:25,320
Speaker 9: will do it when I'm mayor. That will be a priority.

736
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 9: You pay your fare when you ride the subways of buses,

737
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 9: thirty percent of the people who ride the subways don't

738
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 9: even bother to pay their fare.

739
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 2: Thirty seconds immigration in New York City immigration.

740
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 9: If you want to preserve business, you can't be dragging

741
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 9: people out of the backs of restaurants and the hospitality

742
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 9: industry who are not criminals if you don't allow them

743
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:46,959
Speaker 9: and find a way for them to legally work.

744
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 2: My three sons, I have three sons.

745
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 9: Neither of them or any of your sons or grandchildren

746
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 9: out there are going to do that kind of work.

747
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 2: Curtis, thank you so much for joining us.

748
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 5: Curtis Lee, while he's a founder of the Guardian Angels

749
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 5: also Republican candidate for the twenty twenty five New York

750
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 5: City Mayor.

751
00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 2: Race coming on.

752
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 5: We appreciate getting a few minutes of your time.

753
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

754
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

755
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

756
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

757
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

758
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal