WEBVTT - Getting Water to Those Who Need It Most

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the

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<v Speaker 1>latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

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<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course Carol that's part of a team of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can

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<v Speaker 1>also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>by searching Bloomberg Global News. Well, Facebook, we already had

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<v Speaker 1>some news this week about the FTC preparing a possible

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<v Speaker 1>antitrust suit against it, according to those in the know. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>this week's cover story happens to be about Facebook and

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<v Speaker 1>how employees of the social media giant really kind of

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<v Speaker 1>fear that it's founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his

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<v Speaker 1>commitment to free speech is more about protecting President Trump

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<v Speaker 1>than the company's ideals. Bloomberg News technology reporter and author

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<v Speaker 1>of No Filter, The Inside Story of Instagram. Sarah Fryer

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<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone in San Francisco, along with

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg business Week editor Jill Webber on the phone in Massachusetts.

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<v Speaker 1>Amazing story and an amazing cover. Thank you so much,

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<v Speaker 1>and do we have I think it's okay, come on in, Sarah. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, listen, it's a virtual world technology. It's a

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<v Speaker 1>little crazy, So go ahead, Sarah. Takeaway. It is an

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<v Speaker 1>amazing story. I think it's just a compilation of all

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<v Speaker 1>the things that my colleague Kurt Wagner and I have

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<v Speaker 1>been hearing over the past few months and years about

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<v Speaker 1>how Facebook has increasingly been willing to look the other

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<v Speaker 1>way when members of Trump's world break the rules on Facebook.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's not any mistake the company has. Um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the Trump administration has leverage over Facebook. They're facing a

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<v Speaker 1>potential regulation and even worse, potential for Trump to blow

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<v Speaker 1>up and create another bad news cycle. But they are

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<v Speaker 1>catering to that power, and employees are quite concerned about

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<v Speaker 1>what that means, as we had into the November election.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, I think, um, Sarah, the there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of stuff in here, and it makes me just

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<v Speaker 1>think about everything that we've kind of observed um about

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<v Speaker 1>politics and Facebook going back to basically team where obviously

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<v Speaker 1>all the concerns were ended up being about sort of

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<v Speaker 1>Russian interference and it's uh and its role on on

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<v Speaker 1>on on manipulating the platform effectively. Um, and that is

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<v Speaker 1>a concern um again, but it's actually it seems like

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<v Speaker 1>the thrust of this might be in sort of the

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<v Speaker 1>Facebook's response to that wasn't necessarily uh to take on

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<v Speaker 1>that stuff. Um. And they've done, I think a pretty

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<v Speaker 1>amazing job of at least recognizing ability to spot some

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<v Speaker 1>of that stuff. But there seems to have been sort

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<v Speaker 1>of a right word drift at Facebook, and and that

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<v Speaker 1>has been um, you know, that's obviously the center of

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<v Speaker 1>the story. Can you talk more about where those concerns

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<v Speaker 1>are rooted in? Right? So, after the Russian election interference,

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<v Speaker 1>remember Russia was was inserting itself into us of polarizing

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<v Speaker 1>topics like immigration, like race, like like feminism. They were

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<v Speaker 1>building groups on on basic using people pretending to be

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<v Speaker 1>Americans who weren't. And what Facebook concluded from that is

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<v Speaker 1>that it wasn't the thing that the fake people were saying.

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<v Speaker 1>The problem was just that they were fakes. So Facebook

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<v Speaker 1>really does not care if people are trying to manipulate

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<v Speaker 1>others on Facebook and spreading um, sometimes at vary incendiary

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<v Speaker 1>fake news. They don't want to take it down. They

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<v Speaker 1>only want to get get their enforcements into gear if

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<v Speaker 1>there are fake people behind it, if they're breaking other rules.

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<v Speaker 1>And what that's done is it's created this environment where

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<v Speaker 1>Trump can really test the limits of these policies. He's

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<v Speaker 1>been spreading a lot of misinformation about how to vote,

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<v Speaker 1>telling people things, um about mail in voting, saying that

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<v Speaker 1>that would lead to fraud. Of course it's not true. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>He has been using Facebook essentially to uh so doubt

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<v Speaker 1>in the potential results of the election. And Facebook has said, well,

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<v Speaker 1>I know we've said that we cared about voting misinformation,

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<v Speaker 1>but we don't think that Trump is breaking our rules

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<v Speaker 1>and we don't want to take down anything from a politician.

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<v Speaker 1>So some with you know, I want to ask Sarah,

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<v Speaker 1>is Mark Zuckerberg courting the president and and what's great

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<v Speaker 1>about your stories? You did some really inside reporting talking

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<v Speaker 1>to employees who have worked at the company and seen,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, some of the policies that they have done

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<v Speaker 1>and and kind of what they've been focusing on but

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<v Speaker 1>is Zuckerberg courting the president. Well, he's not a Trump Republican.

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<v Speaker 1>What he is is interested in power and dominance for Facebook,

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<v Speaker 1>and that requires the support of people in power. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's not just in the US. We've seen this in

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<v Speaker 1>many countries throughout the world. Facebook always helped out the

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<v Speaker 1>government in charge, caters to their concerns and in some cases,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, give them face time with Zuckerberg, lets them

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<v Speaker 1>break rules that they wouldn't let them break if they

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<v Speaker 1>weren't powerful. And what employees are concerned about is that

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<v Speaker 1>this is actually having this unbalanced effect on what Facebook

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<v Speaker 1>users see and how they are learned about the election.

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<v Speaker 1>One example that that we learned for the story is

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<v Speaker 1>that there were a lot of changes to the new

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<v Speaker 1>speed after presidential elections to try to reduce them out

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<v Speaker 1>of incendiary and untrustworthy news because that was one of

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<v Speaker 1>the big problems. Well, Facebook tested the potential outcome of

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<v Speaker 1>an algorithm change, and the policy team reviewed that and thought, well,

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<v Speaker 1>this is this is hurting the traffic more conservative outlets

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<v Speaker 1>too much. We need to tweak this algorithm right and

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<v Speaker 1>and have an equal effect on conservative liberal up outlets

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<v Speaker 1>of where we roll it out to our users. That's

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<v Speaker 1>an example. Yeah, listen, and there are so many examples.

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<v Speaker 1>The reporting on this is just, you know, like you

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<v Speaker 1>always do. Sarah, fantastic it. If anybody miss part of

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<v Speaker 1>this interview, check it out because it will be on

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<v Speaker 1>our feed and we're going to feature it too in

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<v Speaker 1>our weekend show as well. It is the cover story

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<v Speaker 1>of Bluebird Business Week. Sarah Fryar, thank you so much,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course our thanks to Joel Webber, editor of

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<v Speaker 1>the magazine. Check it out. This is Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>for those of you who have been paying attention, we

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<v Speaker 1>actually kicked off this entire festival with one of the

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<v Speaker 1>co founders. You might have heard of him, Matt Damon.

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<v Speaker 1>Now we're going to turn to the folks who were

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<v Speaker 1>doing some of the most important work in the world

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to water. We're talking about, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>the CEO and co founder of water dot org, Gary White,

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<v Speaker 1>and the president of water dot Org, Jennifer Shorsh. Guys,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for joining me. All right, thanks

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<v Speaker 1>to be here. Good to your Jason. So Gary, I

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<v Speaker 1>want to start with you, you know, tell me about

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<v Speaker 1>the organization at this moment, because we are in a

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<v Speaker 1>global pandemic. I don't need to remind anybody about that,

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<v Speaker 1>but I do wonder how it has changed your work.

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<v Speaker 1>That is the top headline every day. It feels like, well,

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<v Speaker 1>it had had a tremendous impact on our work. And

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<v Speaker 1>what what I see is it calls much more for

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<v Speaker 1>us to pay attention to water and sanitation, particularly for

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<v Speaker 1>the global community. One of the first things that we

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<v Speaker 1>heard when this pandemic struck is like, you should wash

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<v Speaker 1>your hands vigorously, and you should wash them often. And

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States, and we have that ability without

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<v Speaker 1>a thought having to be able to do that, but

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<v Speaker 1>when you think about people around the world, more than

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<v Speaker 1>two billion people who don't have access to safely manage

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<v Speaker 1>water and sanitation, that simple act is a huge hurdle

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<v Speaker 1>every day. So we can see how the pandemic is

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<v Speaker 1>exacerbated in those types of environments. And as we know,

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<v Speaker 1>this pandemic doesn't know any national borders, and so it's

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<v Speaker 1>easy to see how that can can spread from one

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<v Speaker 1>poor person living uh, you know, in the slum uh

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<v Speaker 1>in Mumbai to somebody in New York and it is

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<v Speaker 1>all interconnected. And I think the thing about water, sanitation, water,

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<v Speaker 1>and particularly as we will see today, it's completely interconnected

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<v Speaker 1>with climate. And when we talk about some of the

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<v Speaker 1>world's most vulnerable populations and climate, what they're gonna see

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<v Speaker 1>is this lack of security. As we get more flooding

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<v Speaker 1>and more drought, it forces people who are already living

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<v Speaker 1>on the margins, who might have access continuous access now

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<v Speaker 1>to these services, to completely lose that and backslide. Well, Jennifer,

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<v Speaker 1>let's get right to the heart of that, because Gary

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<v Speaker 1>teed it up for us beautifully. Let's talk about that intersection.

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<v Speaker 1>Because I have to confess, as I started to really

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<v Speaker 1>dig into this, I was blown away by the connection

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<v Speaker 1>and the urgency of this from a climate perspective that

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think I fully appreciated. So help us understand,

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<v Speaker 1>because you guys have done some amazing recent work that

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<v Speaker 1>really crystallizes, as I say, this inter section of climate

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<v Speaker 1>and water crises. Yeah. Thanks, Jason um you you struck

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<v Speaker 1>upon a really important concept, which is the urgency of it.

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<v Speaker 1>Like climate change, I think people really might think of

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<v Speaker 1>this as an issue of tomorrow, but the water crisis

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<v Speaker 1>is an issue of today. Um a third of the

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<v Speaker 1>world's population lives in water stressed areas right now. We

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<v Speaker 1>talked about COVID. Three billion people cannot wash their hands

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<v Speaker 1>at home in the midst of a pandemic, and every

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<v Speaker 1>morning women and girls around the world wake up and

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<v Speaker 1>collectively spend two hundred million hours simply trying to provide

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<v Speaker 1>for the needs of their family in water. And so

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<v Speaker 1>it's and and on. Gary mentioned sanitation. That's more than

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<v Speaker 1>twice the issue of water. So it's an issue right now,

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<v Speaker 1>and is it? It is an issue that has real

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<v Speaker 1>human costs and real economic costs. And as climate progresses,

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<v Speaker 1>the water crisis will only get worse. And so let's

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<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit more about that and how it manifests, Gary,

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<v Speaker 1>because there are a number of different ways, some obvious,

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<v Speaker 1>some not so obvious, where the changing climate is inextricably

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<v Speaker 1>tied uh to the water crisis. One of them, sort

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<v Speaker 1>of going the other way in terms of trying to

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<v Speaker 1>get water to people, is that it's sometimes, just to

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<v Speaker 1>put it very simply, isn't always good for the earth?

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<v Speaker 1>M hm. Well, I think when we talk about water

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<v Speaker 1>scarcity and how we allocate the water resources that we

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<v Speaker 1>do have. It's important to keep in mind that you know, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>only about ten percent of the water that we consume

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<v Speaker 1>goes towards human needs, if you will, so household level

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<v Speaker 1>water and sanitation. And then we especially look at those

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<v Speaker 1>two billion people there there are folks that aren't showing up,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, for water with you know, drinking it through

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<v Speaker 1>a fire hose. They're coming with a straw, right. People

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<v Speaker 1>living in poverty are certainly by if we get them

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<v Speaker 1>access there certainly are not going to exacerbate this csis.

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<v Speaker 1>There's many ways that we can do that while still

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<v Speaker 1>conserving the water resources. And I think what when we

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<v Speaker 1>see water and climate come together, we do see it

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of adaptation. How are we going to ensure

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<v Speaker 1>the resilience of the populations that are on the margins

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<v Speaker 1>right now in the context of water access, And that's important.

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<v Speaker 1>It's kind of the least among us who are going

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<v Speaker 1>to be affected. First, we know that as drought strikes

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<v Speaker 1>and water scarcity hits that we're going to have people

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<v Speaker 1>that need to migrate, We're going to have climate refuge

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<v Speaker 1>refugees because of their water supply. But on the other side,

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<v Speaker 1>just to take it a little bit more in a

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<v Speaker 1>different direction. It's interesting to hear Bill Gates talking about

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<v Speaker 1>some of the carbon issues and like cement and things

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<v Speaker 1>like that. I think one thing that people don't realize

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<v Speaker 1>is how much carbon is embedded in water. So if

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<v Speaker 1>we look at solving this crisis from a mitigation perspective

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<v Speaker 1>for carbon and climate, that's important to to real eyes

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<v Speaker 1>as well. We don't realize, for instance, of all the

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<v Speaker 1>electricity consumed in California goes towards sourcing and moving and

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<v Speaker 1>treating and distributing water that comes into people's homes. We

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<v Speaker 1>don't recognize that. Globally, we have utilities that lose half

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<v Speaker 1>of all that water that's treated because of leaky pipes

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<v Speaker 1>and poor infrastructure. If we could just save of that,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the equivalent between If we could save of those losses,

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<v Speaker 1>that would be like taking two hundred and eleven million

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<v Speaker 1>cars off the road for a year in the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>So we uh, we need to get tuned into more

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<v Speaker 1>how much this whole water supply system and infrastructure and

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<v Speaker 1>the shortcomings in it cause us to to use more

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<v Speaker 1>carving than we need to deliver the water. That's so important, Jennifer,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to take it into a slightly different direction

0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:58.800
<v Speaker 1>and stay a little bit domestic here, because one of

0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:01.760
<v Speaker 1>the things that we've talked a lot about in this

0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:06.400
<v Speaker 1>current crisis is where people live, how they live the

0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:10.040
<v Speaker 1>disproportionate impact as we've been talking about of the pandemic.

0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:12.600
<v Speaker 1>When we think about the climate, one of the things

0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:17.240
<v Speaker 1>we know is that are rising sea levels are going

0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:20.720
<v Speaker 1>to affect where we live. Water is going to play

0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:25.000
<v Speaker 1>a detrimental role to some extent in that. How does

0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.400
<v Speaker 1>your work sort of figure into that and how do

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:32.800
<v Speaker 1>you think about water in that context? Sure? Um so,

0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:35.080
<v Speaker 1>if if we think about the water issue, we we

0:14:35.160 --> 0:14:39.120
<v Speaker 1>really want to focus on the quality, the quantity of it,

0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:42.160
<v Speaker 1>how much is available for use, the quality of the water,

0:14:42.320 --> 0:14:45.640
<v Speaker 1>and then the accessibility of the water. And as we mentioned,

0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:50.080
<v Speaker 1>we are really looking at those who are disproportionately affected

0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:52.840
<v Speaker 1>by this. It was interesting hearing Bill talk about vaccines

0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:56.920
<v Speaker 1>because like many things, the impact of the water crisis

0:14:57.080 --> 0:15:01.000
<v Speaker 1>is disproportionately borne on the shoulders of people living in poverty.

0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:04.800
<v Speaker 1>And so we are focused on the access element of

0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:07.880
<v Speaker 1>water and sanitation and what I like to call the

0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:13.400
<v Speaker 1>humanity of water. Um as Gary reference corporations, industrial and

0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:19.080
<v Speaker 1>agricultural uses of the freshwater supply. About two thirds of

0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:23.400
<v Speaker 1>the freshwater supply is used for its estimated the supply

0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:26.760
<v Speaker 1>chain and the provisioning of products. So we have to

0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:30.560
<v Speaker 1>have corporations participate in this, and we have to address

0:15:30.720 --> 0:15:35.239
<v Speaker 1>not only stewardship, quality, health, and the quantity of water available,

0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:38.960
<v Speaker 1>but also the access the accessibility of it. So our

0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:43.040
<v Speaker 1>work is singularly focused on ensuring that those living in poverty,

0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:46.320
<v Speaker 1>the two billion people who live without every day, have

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.560
<v Speaker 1>access to save water and sanitation, and that's what we

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.480
<v Speaker 1>bring to the table. The lens that we bring is different.

0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:56.880
<v Speaker 1>We approached this through affordable finance, so it's really about

0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:00.240
<v Speaker 1>removing the barriers that exist for those individuals ving in

0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.920
<v Speaker 1>poverty and doing it by creating a system, wrapping a

0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.280
<v Speaker 1>system around them that starts with an affordable loan to

0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:10.200
<v Speaker 1>allow them to hook up to the water system that

0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:12.480
<v Speaker 1>runs right under their feet. They just don't have the

0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:15.240
<v Speaker 1>savings to connect to that or to build a toilet

0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:18.760
<v Speaker 1>in their home. So we focus on that individual living

0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:22.760
<v Speaker 1>in poverty. We enable often her to get access to

0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:27.240
<v Speaker 1>um to alone to get that water connection. And what

0:16:27.280 --> 0:16:29.640
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing is that there is a market that is

0:16:29.640 --> 0:16:33.440
<v Speaker 1>playing out more than six million loans enabled. Thirty million

0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:36.720
<v Speaker 1>people now have access to water and sanitation, and they're

0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:41.680
<v Speaker 1>doing it through um saving their time and saving their resources.

0:16:41.720 --> 0:16:46.040
<v Speaker 1>And that has created a commercial lending portfolio of two

0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.960
<v Speaker 1>point four billion dollars which is put in the hands

0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.280
<v Speaker 1>of people living on less than six dollars a day.

0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:56.000
<v Speaker 1>So Gary talked about that a little bit more and

0:16:56.000 --> 0:17:00.640
<v Speaker 1>and the growth of that and how that finance peace

0:17:00.880 --> 0:17:04.320
<v Speaker 1>is essentially enabled. Because this is right in the Bloomberg

0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:06.840
<v Speaker 1>sweet spot, I have to say, in terms of our

0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:12.600
<v Speaker 1>audience and and sort of understanding the underpinnings financially. Yeah,

0:17:12.600 --> 0:17:16.040
<v Speaker 1>and I think what's exciting about this is that there

0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:20.280
<v Speaker 1>is a solution. And in many ways, this problem of

0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:24.119
<v Speaker 1>helping people in poverty get access contains its own solution.

0:17:24.440 --> 0:17:27.919
<v Speaker 1>And as Jennifer was mentioning, we worked through getting access

0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:30.040
<v Speaker 1>to micro loans to people living in poverty and just

0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:33.159
<v Speaker 1>real quickly how that how that works. Uh. There was

0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:35.480
<v Speaker 1>a woman I met recently in the Philippines. Her name

0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:39.440
<v Speaker 1>was Lenadiza, and she was paying a water vendor, someone

0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:43.679
<v Speaker 1>who sold you know, dubious quality water in her neighborhood. Uh,

0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:47.600
<v Speaker 1>you know about thirty dollars every month to bring water

0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:51.560
<v Speaker 1>to her home. Uh and what I'm sorry she was

0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:54.040
<v Speaker 1>saying about sixty dollars. And then so what we saw

0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:57.720
<v Speaker 1>was the opportunity for her to connect to this utility,

0:17:57.880 --> 0:18:00.320
<v Speaker 1>but she didn't have the upfront money to do you that.

0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:02.639
<v Speaker 1>So through our program, she was able to get a

0:18:02.720 --> 0:18:07.960
<v Speaker 1>small loan and able to capture those savings. So now

0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:10.840
<v Speaker 1>she's paying about ten dollars a month for her water

0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:13.840
<v Speaker 1>bill and for her loan combined, so she's able to

0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:17.360
<v Speaker 1>save fifty dollars and so every month that's money that's

0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:20.200
<v Speaker 1>back in her pocket. So that's how this this system

0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:22.960
<v Speaker 1>can work, and it is about trying to bring the

0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.960
<v Speaker 1>global capital markets to bear on this. So we work

0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:30.240
<v Speaker 1>with local microfinance institutions to to bring that capital into

0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:33.440
<v Speaker 1>the system so people like Lesa can get those loans.

0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:36.960
<v Speaker 1>And as this is evolved, we've realized that we can

0:18:37.040 --> 0:18:42.040
<v Speaker 1>actually see new ways and looking at social impact investing

0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:45.520
<v Speaker 1>for instance, to drive more capital into the system so

0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:49.200
<v Speaker 1>that these loans can be scaled up. And water dot

0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:51.760
<v Speaker 1>org was actually able to create and stand up and

0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:56.159
<v Speaker 1>spin off a new entity water equity that brings the

0:18:56.200 --> 0:19:00.680
<v Speaker 1>capital markets to bear giving an investors in attractive rate

0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:03.639
<v Speaker 1>of return so that we can then scale up these

0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:07.159
<v Speaker 1>these small loans and then expand to micro enterprises that

0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:10.680
<v Speaker 1>serve the poor as well as as utilities. And that's

0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:13.400
<v Speaker 1>what we can offer accredited investors who want to learn more,

0:19:13.720 --> 0:19:17.040
<v Speaker 1>they can invest in this with that type of vehicle.

0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:21.159
<v Speaker 1>But also we need that philanthropic capital that sets all

0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:23.480
<v Speaker 1>this in motion to do those things that Jennifer was

0:19:23.520 --> 0:19:26.720
<v Speaker 1>talking about to correct those market failures, and that's what

0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:31.440
<v Speaker 1>we're trying to do, use this these innovations to show that,

0:19:31.800 --> 0:19:34.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, people living in poverty are actually not necessarily

0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.600
<v Speaker 1>a problem to be solved, but a market to be served.

0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:43.200
<v Speaker 1>So I love that um because I am engaging every

0:19:43.280 --> 0:19:47.080
<v Speaker 1>day with a whole lot of capitalists who are seeing

0:19:47.160 --> 0:19:52.400
<v Speaker 1>increasingly it feels like Gary this opportunity, this investment opportunity

0:19:52.800 --> 0:19:56.920
<v Speaker 1>in also doing good. Was there an inflection point where

0:19:56.960 --> 0:19:59.919
<v Speaker 1>this became possible the Water Equity Fund? Was it because

0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:03.480
<v Speaker 1>of the appetite growing or was it because the model

0:20:03.560 --> 0:20:06.800
<v Speaker 1>didn't exist before? What was the key moment in getting

0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:10.280
<v Speaker 1>that stood up? I think that the key moment was

0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:12.639
<v Speaker 1>when we were working with some of our local partners

0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:15.640
<v Speaker 1>around the world, and we asked them what's preventing them

0:20:15.640 --> 0:20:18.720
<v Speaker 1>from scaling up these loan portfolios much more, and it

0:20:18.840 --> 0:20:22.320
<v Speaker 1>was an answer of, you know, access to safe I'm sorry,

0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:27.479
<v Speaker 1>access to affordable and consistent capital. And at the same time,

0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:30.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, uh, you know, Matt, Actually Matt and I

0:20:30.280 --> 0:20:33.520
<v Speaker 1>were in the jeep driving around India when we were

0:20:33.520 --> 0:20:35.680
<v Speaker 1>talking to our partners about this, and that's where we

0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:39.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of hatched this idea of bringing the capital markets

0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:42.439
<v Speaker 1>in through social impact investing. So it's kind of a

0:20:42.440 --> 0:20:46.679
<v Speaker 1>perfect storm, right. We saw this incredible demand and you know,

0:20:46.800 --> 0:20:51.040
<v Speaker 1>we see about an eighteen billion dollar demand for these

0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:54.920
<v Speaker 1>small loans among people living in poverty that could serve

0:20:54.960 --> 0:20:58.600
<v Speaker 1>about eight hundred million people. And we saw that demand

0:20:58.720 --> 0:21:00.959
<v Speaker 1>bubbling from the bottom up in the form of our

0:21:00.960 --> 0:21:03.280
<v Speaker 1>partner saying we need more capital to get out more

0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:06.080
<v Speaker 1>loans from more water connections and more toilets. At the

0:21:06.119 --> 0:21:09.720
<v Speaker 1>same time, we saw social impact investing really starting to

0:21:09.760 --> 0:21:12.560
<v Speaker 1>come into its own and so we were able to

0:21:12.640 --> 0:21:17.280
<v Speaker 1>create Water Equity. Is really this the first asset manager

0:21:17.359 --> 0:21:21.320
<v Speaker 1>that's focused exclusively on solving this crisis to be able

0:21:21.359 --> 0:21:25.320
<v Speaker 1>to bring in those accredited investors. Match that with people

0:21:25.600 --> 0:21:28.879
<v Speaker 1>at the household level to get the loans from that

0:21:28.960 --> 0:21:32.760
<v Speaker 1>capital and provide that attractive rate of return to investors

0:21:32.800 --> 0:21:37.280
<v Speaker 1>while still helping people get water. So, Jennifer, let's talk

0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:40.960
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more about the philanthropic side than especially

0:21:40.960 --> 0:21:43.000
<v Speaker 1>in this time of crisis where there are so many

0:21:43.040 --> 0:21:46.359
<v Speaker 1>people in need, so many organizations. We talked about this

0:21:46.440 --> 0:21:49.399
<v Speaker 1>at the top of the conversation. How are you seeing

0:21:49.440 --> 0:21:56.840
<v Speaker 1>the philanthropic side both from an individual and a corporate perspective. Yeah,

0:21:57.160 --> 0:22:00.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the philanthropic environment right now is interesting. What

0:22:00.720 --> 0:22:04.000
<v Speaker 1>we see is that philanthropists are stepping up in a

0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:06.600
<v Speaker 1>in a way that has been unprecedented in some ways.

0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:09.320
<v Speaker 1>What we're seeing is that a lot of those funds

0:22:09.359 --> 0:22:13.680
<v Speaker 1>are going towards relief, immediate relief, um and the important

0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:16.960
<v Speaker 1>issues of racial justice and so what what we are

0:22:17.000 --> 0:22:19.520
<v Speaker 1>seeing is that now more than ever, we need to

0:22:19.560 --> 0:22:23.800
<v Speaker 1>accelerate progress against against water and sanitation. It is the

0:22:23.880 --> 0:22:27.800
<v Speaker 1>first and the second line defense against pandemic and frankly,

0:22:27.800 --> 0:22:32.520
<v Speaker 1>the philanthropic environment for water and sanitation is challenging. So

0:22:32.560 --> 0:22:35.560
<v Speaker 1>what we are trying to do is help folks think

0:22:35.600 --> 0:22:39.040
<v Speaker 1>about this as building global resilience that we need to

0:22:39.080 --> 0:22:42.280
<v Speaker 1>invest in water and sanitation. At water dot org, we

0:22:42.320 --> 0:22:45.000
<v Speaker 1>need people to come and visit, whether you can give

0:22:45.080 --> 0:22:48.440
<v Speaker 1>ten dollars or a million dollars to donate to water

0:22:48.480 --> 0:22:51.760
<v Speaker 1>dot org to accelerate COVID. We've identified more than twenty

0:22:51.800 --> 0:22:55.840
<v Speaker 1>five million projects that we want to accelerate to redouble

0:22:55.880 --> 0:22:59.200
<v Speaker 1>our efforts in the light of COVID. But frankly, Jason,

0:22:59.280 --> 0:23:02.959
<v Speaker 1>it is a challenge environment for us, given that so

0:23:03.040 --> 0:23:06.600
<v Speaker 1>much is going against immediate relief. And if I could

0:23:06.600 --> 0:23:09.400
<v Speaker 1>just say one other thing about the stakeholders that need

0:23:09.440 --> 0:23:13.040
<v Speaker 1>to participate in this issue. Um as they referenced earlier

0:23:13.119 --> 0:23:16.960
<v Speaker 1>corporations and their use of water. We need corporations to

0:23:17.040 --> 0:23:20.320
<v Speaker 1>step up. We are fortunate to work with dozens of

0:23:20.400 --> 0:23:25.560
<v Speaker 1>corporations and corporate foundations in fulfilling their water and stewardship needs.

0:23:25.640 --> 0:23:27.640
<v Speaker 1>And what we want to see and what we're starting

0:23:27.680 --> 0:23:31.080
<v Speaker 1>to see through things like the Water Resilience Coalition, is

0:23:31.160 --> 0:23:36.320
<v Speaker 1>these corporations not only make elevating their ambitions, but accelerating

0:23:36.359 --> 0:23:39.560
<v Speaker 1>their actions. And we want to partner with those corporations

0:23:39.600 --> 0:23:42.679
<v Speaker 1>we at water dot org and use their philanthropy and

0:23:42.720 --> 0:23:47.320
<v Speaker 1>that of philanthropists catalytically to create this system that wraps

0:23:47.359 --> 0:23:53.240
<v Speaker 1>around that woman living in poverty and create sustainable solution. Well, Gary,

0:23:53.240 --> 0:23:54.920
<v Speaker 1>there's certainly. I mean one of the things that I

0:23:54.960 --> 0:23:57.840
<v Speaker 1>think is so appealing about this is you have a

0:23:57.880 --> 0:24:01.320
<v Speaker 1>clarity of purpose and both of you have talked about it,

0:24:01.680 --> 0:24:05.360
<v Speaker 1>uh so well, and it is a it's so fundamental

0:24:05.440 --> 0:24:08.840
<v Speaker 1>to to what we're what we're all striving for. Here

0:24:09.560 --> 0:24:12.399
<v Speaker 1>as we wrap up, I mean, what gives you in

0:24:12.440 --> 0:24:16.160
<v Speaker 1>the in the uh, in the sense of maybe ending

0:24:16.200 --> 0:24:19.080
<v Speaker 1>with some optimism, What does make you optimistic? What gives

0:24:19.080 --> 0:24:21.720
<v Speaker 1>you a sense of hope at a time when man,

0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:25.760
<v Speaker 1>we're looking for some I think what gives me hope

0:24:25.920 --> 0:24:28.119
<v Speaker 1>is that the power of the people that we're trying

0:24:28.119 --> 0:24:31.600
<v Speaker 1>to help get access to safe water and sanitation. I mean,

0:24:31.640 --> 0:24:35.600
<v Speaker 1>there they are the ones who understand the value in that,

0:24:35.840 --> 0:24:38.040
<v Speaker 1>and they're the ones who are willing to invest in

0:24:38.240 --> 0:24:41.159
<v Speaker 1>helping create that value for their family, whether that's their

0:24:41.240 --> 0:24:43.280
<v Speaker 1>daughter now being able to go to school because she's

0:24:43.320 --> 0:24:46.600
<v Speaker 1>not carrying water, or because they're saving on medicine because

0:24:46.600 --> 0:24:49.800
<v Speaker 1>they're not sick all the time. And that's what drives

0:24:49.880 --> 0:24:52.240
<v Speaker 1>is there the center of this work. This is why

0:24:52.280 --> 0:24:57.000
<v Speaker 1>the market can work because right now connecting people like

0:24:57.119 --> 0:25:01.000
<v Speaker 1>that to the capital markets. It's a broken system and

0:25:01.040 --> 0:25:04.000
<v Speaker 1>that's why we exist with our philanthropy capital to kind

0:25:04.040 --> 0:25:07.439
<v Speaker 1>of help correct that failure. And you know, we've been

0:25:07.440 --> 0:25:09.280
<v Speaker 1>doing this for thirty years and we developed a lot

0:25:09.320 --> 0:25:12.720
<v Speaker 1>of different insights into this, into how we can do it,

0:25:12.760 --> 0:25:15.119
<v Speaker 1>and we can do more of it. I think Jennifer mentioned,

0:25:15.119 --> 0:25:18.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, we have twenty million dollars worth of projects

0:25:18.640 --> 0:25:21.320
<v Speaker 1>and initiatives that are ready and waiting to go so

0:25:21.359 --> 0:25:24.399
<v Speaker 1>that we can scale this up further. And so to me,

0:25:25.240 --> 0:25:28.399
<v Speaker 1>what we've done is like become this innovation engine in

0:25:28.480 --> 0:25:31.919
<v Speaker 1>this market, helping people understand that it is there, and

0:25:31.960 --> 0:25:35.080
<v Speaker 1>then finding these different tools, whether it be philanthropy to

0:25:35.280 --> 0:25:38.320
<v Speaker 1>scale this up and create new solutions, whether it be

0:25:38.400 --> 0:25:42.000
<v Speaker 1>helping corporations pursue their e s G scores and drive

0:25:42.040 --> 0:25:45.080
<v Speaker 1>those up because they are looking at their social license

0:25:45.080 --> 0:25:48.600
<v Speaker 1>to operate with respect to water for these communities where

0:25:48.600 --> 0:25:52.240
<v Speaker 1>we work, or whether it's impact investing and looking to

0:25:52.280 --> 0:25:56.080
<v Speaker 1>accredited investors to come in and deploy their capital in

0:25:56.080 --> 0:25:58.840
<v Speaker 1>a way in a way that gets them that financial

0:25:58.840 --> 0:26:02.920
<v Speaker 1>return that they need also then serves those need needing water.

0:26:03.240 --> 0:26:06.560
<v Speaker 1>In particular, Foundations right now, as we look towards foundations

0:26:06.560 --> 0:26:11.240
<v Speaker 1>investing in mission related investments and these types of things,

0:26:11.320 --> 0:26:14.680
<v Speaker 1>we can deliver that type of impact. We can solve

0:26:14.720 --> 0:26:17.119
<v Speaker 1>this global water crisis. We can do it from the

0:26:17.119 --> 0:26:19.239
<v Speaker 1>bottom up with the people who are impacted by it,

0:26:19.400 --> 0:26:21.360
<v Speaker 1>and from the top down with the people who can

0:26:21.440 --> 0:26:26.000
<v Speaker 1>bring the capital. All right, Well, a really interesting discussion.

0:26:26.160 --> 0:26:28.720
<v Speaker 1>I learned a ton. I know that our audience did

0:26:28.760 --> 0:26:31.720
<v Speaker 1>as well. As I said. This is a core issue

0:26:31.920 --> 0:26:34.320
<v Speaker 1>for us as humans. It's a core issue as it

0:26:34.359 --> 0:26:37.360
<v Speaker 1>relates to the environment, a core issue as it relates

0:26:37.359 --> 0:26:40.200
<v Speaker 1>to as we all figure out where we go from here.

0:26:40.359 --> 0:26:43.400
<v Speaker 1>My thanks to Gary White, the CEO and co founder

0:26:43.400 --> 0:26:46.120
<v Speaker 1>of water dot org, and as well to Jennifer Sure

0:26:46.200 --> 0:26:49.760
<v Speaker 1>she is the president of water dot Org. They joined

0:26:49.760 --> 0:26:55.320
<v Speaker 1>me from their respective locals, Kansas City and Seattle, respectively.

0:26:55.680 --> 0:26:59.280
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason

0:26:59.359 --> 0:27:02.879
<v Speaker 1>Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right, let's talk a little

0:27:02.880 --> 0:27:06.320
<v Speaker 1>bit about economics with one of our favorite economists. He's

0:27:06.320 --> 0:27:09.359
<v Speaker 1>the chief economist at lending Tree, Tinda kept Feezy. He

0:27:09.440 --> 0:27:12.320
<v Speaker 1>joins on the phone from New York City today. Have

0:27:12.480 --> 0:27:16.000
<v Speaker 1>you been what's going on doing good. Guys, how are

0:27:16.040 --> 0:27:18.040
<v Speaker 1>you hi? We're doing all right. It's kind of a

0:27:18.520 --> 0:27:22.240
<v Speaker 1>funky week, as they all are. The week I think

0:27:22.240 --> 0:27:25.360
<v Speaker 1>working from home although I'm in the studio, Carol's at home.

0:27:25.680 --> 0:27:28.879
<v Speaker 1>I'm guessing you're at home still. So what is this

0:27:28.960 --> 0:27:32.240
<v Speaker 1>economy telling us right now? What data are you looking at?

0:27:32.720 --> 0:27:35.320
<v Speaker 1>You have access through lending Tree too. I feel like

0:27:35.600 --> 0:27:40.640
<v Speaker 1>a trove of data that many people don't. Um, yeah,

0:27:40.720 --> 0:27:42.560
<v Speaker 1>we do have a lot of data today though. I'm

0:27:42.600 --> 0:27:44.679
<v Speaker 1>looking at the housing starts, which is a piece of

0:27:44.760 --> 0:27:49.000
<v Speaker 1>data that the senseless bureau puts out and how he starts.

0:27:49.080 --> 0:27:54.000
<v Speaker 1>They actually felt in August five month of the month, uh,

0:27:54.040 --> 0:27:58.199
<v Speaker 1>and the decline was driven by the multifamily housing, but

0:27:58.400 --> 0:28:01.320
<v Speaker 1>single family houses were actually up. My whole family was

0:28:01.400 --> 0:28:05.200
<v Speaker 1>down twenty month of a month, a pretty big drop,

0:28:05.560 --> 0:28:10.399
<v Speaker 1>which I think reflect changing preferences amongst home buyers and

0:28:10.480 --> 0:28:13.920
<v Speaker 1>rents as well. So what does that tell you about

0:28:13.960 --> 0:28:16.840
<v Speaker 1>kind of where we are in this cycle, this economic cycle?

0:28:16.840 --> 0:28:19.280
<v Speaker 1>Because I think we know the hit was hard. We

0:28:19.320 --> 0:28:21.280
<v Speaker 1>know initially there was a big bounce back and then

0:28:21.320 --> 0:28:24.040
<v Speaker 1>now we're just kind of depending on the statistic you

0:28:24.080 --> 0:28:30.960
<v Speaker 1>look at trending water trending water too. I'm sorry, Jason,

0:28:31.000 --> 0:28:37.000
<v Speaker 1>I think it's just your trending water. Water. Water is trending,

0:28:37.800 --> 0:28:42.800
<v Speaker 1>but trending water is what I meant to say. So

0:28:42.920 --> 0:28:47.960
<v Speaker 1>are we treading water tonight? Um? I think we certainly are.

0:28:48.120 --> 0:28:51.080
<v Speaker 1>In terms of the other sectors of the economy, right

0:28:51.120 --> 0:28:55.720
<v Speaker 1>the housing sector is actually a big positive upside surprise,

0:28:56.200 --> 0:28:58.920
<v Speaker 1>and that's largely because of interest rates. But if you

0:28:58.920 --> 0:29:02.560
<v Speaker 1>look at something like we sale sales, which came out yesterday, uh,

0:29:02.600 --> 0:29:05.960
<v Speaker 1>it shows that, you know, after kind of initial recovery

0:29:06.160 --> 0:29:09.080
<v Speaker 1>of some of the decline, we're really moving sideways. So

0:29:09.160 --> 0:29:12.600
<v Speaker 1>we're you know, we're only making back uh maybe half

0:29:12.640 --> 0:29:16.240
<v Speaker 1>of the decline that we saw from COVID, and you

0:29:16.240 --> 0:29:18.240
<v Speaker 1>know that leaves the economy in a very deep hole.

0:29:18.760 --> 0:29:21.200
<v Speaker 1>What does that mean? What does it mean that one

0:29:21.280 --> 0:29:22.840
<v Speaker 1>like you know, we Jason I kind of laugh a

0:29:22.880 --> 0:29:25.720
<v Speaker 1>little bit, but we don't mean to laugh. Um. But

0:29:25.840 --> 0:29:28.400
<v Speaker 1>about you know, the lack of visibility from companies and

0:29:28.440 --> 0:29:30.320
<v Speaker 1>CEOs when they report their earnings are like, yep, we

0:29:30.320 --> 0:29:33.080
<v Speaker 1>don't have visibility still fore, but you know, we know

0:29:33.160 --> 0:29:35.520
<v Speaker 1>they have to make decisions. We know some of them

0:29:35.560 --> 0:29:37.880
<v Speaker 1>are making decisions like letting go workers, so they must

0:29:37.880 --> 0:29:43.120
<v Speaker 1>have some kind of visibility about what the world looks like. Yeah,

0:29:43.160 --> 0:29:47.920
<v Speaker 1>I'm actually very worried about because, you know, really the

0:29:47.960 --> 0:29:50.880
<v Speaker 1>way to get back the economy is to solve the

0:29:50.920 --> 0:29:54.240
<v Speaker 1>health crisis. And it's not clear right that we're gonna

0:29:54.320 --> 0:29:57.160
<v Speaker 1>get a vaccine right. I used to work a spiser

0:29:57.320 --> 0:30:00.920
<v Speaker 1>before my current job, and vaccines are not easy to make, uh,

0:30:00.960 --> 0:30:02.840
<v Speaker 1>you know. Fives. Then a lot of other companies are

0:30:02.960 --> 0:30:05.200
<v Speaker 1>working very hard to try and figure this out, but

0:30:05.240 --> 0:30:08.360
<v Speaker 1>it's not a given that they will. And then from

0:30:08.360 --> 0:30:12.440
<v Speaker 1>the economy perspective, what we've seen in is that a

0:30:12.520 --> 0:30:16.440
<v Speaker 1>lot of companies have made pledges right to the employees

0:30:16.480 --> 0:30:18.800
<v Speaker 1>that we're not doing COVID layoffs. A lot of big

0:30:18.800 --> 0:30:22.680
<v Speaker 1>companies have done this. I think in one when these

0:30:22.680 --> 0:30:26.760
<v Speaker 1>pledges end, we're going to have another round of job

0:30:26.800 --> 0:30:30.440
<v Speaker 1>losses if the economy hasn't truly come back. And that's

0:30:30.480 --> 0:30:34.080
<v Speaker 1>a big concern I think for next year. And so

0:30:34.400 --> 0:30:38.560
<v Speaker 1>when you listen to what J. Powell said yesterday and

0:30:38.800 --> 0:30:42.600
<v Speaker 1>I you look at the publicly available data, you look

0:30:42.720 --> 0:30:46.240
<v Speaker 1>at your data that you guys are able to get

0:30:46.560 --> 0:30:52.800
<v Speaker 1>through lending tree, is there, what's the what's the signal

0:30:52.840 --> 0:30:54.880
<v Speaker 1>in the noise, I guess, I mean, what is the

0:30:54.920 --> 0:30:57.440
<v Speaker 1>thing that we need to be focused on even in

0:30:57.480 --> 0:31:00.880
<v Speaker 1>the next thirty to sixty days as we think about, say,

0:31:01.000 --> 0:31:05.840
<v Speaker 1>the elections, everything is noise except if they come up

0:31:05.840 --> 0:31:09.560
<v Speaker 1>with some vaccine or you know, some way to mitigate

0:31:10.080 --> 0:31:13.080
<v Speaker 1>the health risk. Everything else, I think is is noise.

0:31:13.480 --> 0:31:16.800
<v Speaker 1>And you can't really solve for anything without solving for

0:31:17.040 --> 0:31:19.280
<v Speaker 1>the health problems. What about the a big you know,

0:31:19.360 --> 0:31:25.360
<v Speaker 1>aid package from government. Does that do it? Yeah? It

0:31:25.400 --> 0:31:27.800
<v Speaker 1>does it for a while. Right, we saw that earlier

0:31:27.840 --> 0:31:31.440
<v Speaker 1>this year. Really what you know kind of sustained or

0:31:31.760 --> 0:31:36.600
<v Speaker 1>prevented the decline from being greater was this huge stimulus package,

0:31:37.200 --> 0:31:39.719
<v Speaker 1>which the idea was to you know, build a bridge

0:31:39.800 --> 0:31:43.040
<v Speaker 1>the other side and hopefully would have had some solutions

0:31:43.040 --> 0:31:46.640
<v Speaker 1>to the health crisis. Unfortunately, we didn't really build that bridge.

0:31:46.680 --> 0:31:50.520
<v Speaker 1>We didn't really solve for the health issues. So again, uh,

0:31:50.600 --> 0:31:52.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, you can do all kinds of things, you know,

0:31:52.280 --> 0:31:55.840
<v Speaker 1>power can do all kinds of things, but really you

0:31:55.920 --> 0:31:58.600
<v Speaker 1>have to solve the root problem in order for any

0:31:58.640 --> 0:32:02.680
<v Speaker 1>of these other actions to have their maximum impact. All right,

0:32:02.840 --> 0:32:06.520
<v Speaker 1>Tinda Fez, thank you so much, Chief Economists for a

0:32:06.560 --> 0:32:10.600
<v Speaker 1>lending treat joining us on the phone from New York City.

0:32:10.920 --> 0:32:13.960
<v Speaker 1>And that's interesting to hear him say basically, nothing matters

0:32:14.000 --> 0:32:21.440
<v Speaker 1>except a vaccine. I'm roc a journal. But you let

0:32:21.440 --> 0:32:26.280
<v Speaker 1>me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, honey, please, I'll

0:32:26.320 --> 0:32:35.320
<v Speaker 1>do the riding revels. I want to drive, Just drive, baby,

0:32:36.080 --> 0:32:47.160
<v Speaker 1>good questions trying. This is the Drive to the Globe Commune.

0:32:47.240 --> 0:32:52.760
<v Speaker 1>Thanks well, run on Bloomberg Radio. It is time for

0:32:52.840 --> 0:32:56.720
<v Speaker 1>the Drive to the close. We're both so excited to

0:32:56.800 --> 0:32:59.800
<v Speaker 1>welcome back Cold Smead, President and portfolio manager of Smeet

0:32:59.800 --> 0:33:04.040
<v Speaker 1>cap At Management, joining us on the phone from Phoenix, Arizona. Cole,

0:33:04.200 --> 0:33:07.760
<v Speaker 1>How are you? How are things out in Arizona? Thanks?

0:33:07.760 --> 0:33:10.520
<v Speaker 1>Are actually pretty normal on here. It's it's, uh, it's

0:33:10.520 --> 0:33:13.040
<v Speaker 1>a pretty strange world where people go to lunch and

0:33:13.160 --> 0:33:15.960
<v Speaker 1>do business meetings and you go out to dinner in

0:33:16.000 --> 0:33:19.120
<v Speaker 1>the evening and uh, you live life pretty normally, which

0:33:19.120 --> 0:33:21.840
<v Speaker 1>is kind of the shock too right now. So not

0:33:21.960 --> 0:33:25.360
<v Speaker 1>where it was, that's for sure, Yeah, no question, it's

0:33:25.360 --> 0:33:29.000
<v Speaker 1>so it's on outside. It's we couldn't feel more blessed. Yeah,

0:33:29.080 --> 0:33:33.600
<v Speaker 1>that's pretty Uh, that's pretty incredible because we feel I

0:33:33.640 --> 0:33:35.239
<v Speaker 1>think I can speak for a lot of people here

0:33:35.240 --> 0:33:37.880
<v Speaker 1>in the Tri State area where still very much on lockdown.

0:33:37.920 --> 0:33:41.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I'm looking even across our barely occupied office

0:33:41.040 --> 0:33:42.920
<v Speaker 1>and seeing, you know, the folks who are moving around

0:33:42.960 --> 0:33:45.760
<v Speaker 1>wearing masks, and you know, moving around New York City

0:33:45.800 --> 0:33:48.360
<v Speaker 1>a little bit over the past few weeks. Not a

0:33:48.360 --> 0:33:51.560
<v Speaker 1>lot of um, not a lot of people out and about.

0:33:51.560 --> 0:33:54.959
<v Speaker 1>Still it's getting better, um, but it is. It is

0:33:55.000 --> 0:33:57.400
<v Speaker 1>sort of interesting. And you know, we talked with an

0:33:57.440 --> 0:34:01.160
<v Speaker 1>economist earlier, Cole, who was basically saying that from an

0:34:01.200 --> 0:34:06.480
<v Speaker 1>economic perspective, nothing is close to normal until there's a vaccine.

0:34:07.280 --> 0:34:10.759
<v Speaker 1>I think we can we could dissect that a little bit.

0:34:10.800 --> 0:34:14.600
<v Speaker 1>But I would ask you, from a market's perspective, how

0:34:14.680 --> 0:34:18.120
<v Speaker 1>does an investor look at sort of this underlying pandemic

0:34:18.160 --> 0:34:20.759
<v Speaker 1>and how to think about it as you look at

0:34:20.760 --> 0:34:25.600
<v Speaker 1>a portfolio. Well, it's like great question, and I will uh,

0:34:25.640 --> 0:34:28.480
<v Speaker 1>I will cheat and copy and paste straight from Sir

0:34:28.600 --> 0:34:32.040
<v Speaker 1>John Templeton. He would say that people often ask me,

0:34:32.960 --> 0:34:35.319
<v Speaker 1>you know, what looks the best, and he said, that's

0:34:35.360 --> 0:34:37.760
<v Speaker 1>not the right question to ask you. Could you should

0:34:37.760 --> 0:34:40.600
<v Speaker 1>be asking where things look the worst? And that's what

0:34:40.680 --> 0:34:43.040
<v Speaker 1>he was interested as an investor, So to your point.

0:34:43.400 --> 0:34:45.760
<v Speaker 1>For the economists to say that, I love that because

0:34:46.160 --> 0:34:49.319
<v Speaker 1>obviously they're great predictors of everything and nothing at the

0:34:49.360 --> 0:34:52.319
<v Speaker 1>same time. So so that is a picture that people

0:34:52.360 --> 0:34:54.680
<v Speaker 1>have in their mind right now that nothing will be

0:34:54.719 --> 0:34:58.560
<v Speaker 1>normal until a vaccine, okay, which means that security prices

0:34:58.600 --> 0:35:02.880
<v Speaker 1>are completely miss allocated up until then, or until the

0:35:02.960 --> 0:35:05.319
<v Speaker 1>market gets a better sense of then. Um. You know,

0:35:05.440 --> 0:35:08.560
<v Speaker 1>people always talk about the wisdom of the crowds. Markets

0:35:08.600 --> 0:35:10.759
<v Speaker 1>tend to sniff out things better. By the time the

0:35:10.800 --> 0:35:13.840
<v Speaker 1>market sniff sniffs out the change that the economists was

0:35:13.880 --> 0:35:16.840
<v Speaker 1>referring to, a lot of the security opportunities could be

0:35:16.880 --> 0:35:20.960
<v Speaker 1>gone in things like oil, malls, et cetera that are

0:35:21.000 --> 0:35:24.960
<v Speaker 1>incredibly depressed at this point. So it's the value guys saying, hey, folks,

0:35:25.200 --> 0:35:27.960
<v Speaker 1>there's some great deals out there, correct, Because well Dave

0:35:28.400 --> 0:35:30.760
<v Speaker 1>Dave Wilson, who does our Chart of the Day earlier,

0:35:30.800 --> 0:35:34.000
<v Speaker 1>came on specifically looking at value stocks, and you know,

0:35:34.120 --> 0:35:37.120
<v Speaker 1>those relatively cheap names are more out of favor with

0:35:37.200 --> 0:35:39.760
<v Speaker 1>investors in developed markets, and they have been in almost

0:35:40.239 --> 0:35:44.520
<v Speaker 1>four decades. But you know, having said that, cold, to

0:35:44.640 --> 0:35:48.239
<v Speaker 1>be fair, they can get even cheaper from here. Well

0:35:48.280 --> 0:35:51.239
<v Speaker 1>they can, but my gut instinct says that two weeks

0:35:51.239 --> 0:35:54.160
<v Speaker 1>ago this thing ended. Just see, you guys are aware, okay,

0:35:54.360 --> 0:35:57.960
<v Speaker 1>and I'm just telling you out of watching and experience. Um,

0:35:58.080 --> 0:36:01.799
<v Speaker 1>there was a half a trillion dollars being wagered on

0:36:02.520 --> 0:36:06.480
<v Speaker 1>UH options tied to small retail traders the four weeks

0:36:06.520 --> 0:36:09.359
<v Speaker 1>that ended last week. And just to give you guys

0:36:09.400 --> 0:36:12.040
<v Speaker 1>a sense, that was that was five times as large

0:36:12.040 --> 0:36:13.800
<v Speaker 1>as what we saw in the late ninet So you

0:36:13.840 --> 0:36:18.000
<v Speaker 1>can see all the elements of a speculative euphoria. You know,

0:36:18.080 --> 0:36:20.920
<v Speaker 1>John Kenneth Galberth probably did the best writing on that

0:36:21.000 --> 0:36:23.799
<v Speaker 1>subject matter. And what I love about it is, I'm

0:36:23.840 --> 0:36:26.120
<v Speaker 1>thirty six. For my generation, this is really the first

0:36:26.160 --> 0:36:29.319
<v Speaker 1>time that people have tried to figure out ways to

0:36:29.320 --> 0:36:32.080
<v Speaker 1>take speculative risk in the stock market. They've done it

0:36:32.160 --> 0:36:36.640
<v Speaker 1>to the highest degree of speculative risk. And like Rich Bernstein,

0:36:36.719 --> 0:36:39.239
<v Speaker 1>the famous former meryal strategists, would say, they're not just

0:36:39.280 --> 0:36:42.680
<v Speaker 1>gonna with lower returns. They will actually be poorer coming

0:36:42.680 --> 0:36:45.440
<v Speaker 1>out of this, which is most people's experience in common

0:36:45.480 --> 0:36:48.880
<v Speaker 1>stock investing. They never have success, they wake up poorer,

0:36:48.920 --> 0:36:51.319
<v Speaker 1>and these episodes is what causes that to happen. Where

0:36:51.320 --> 0:36:55.279
<v Speaker 1>do you think investors are making mistakes specifically, Uh, well,

0:36:55.840 --> 0:36:58.880
<v Speaker 1>just as a picture. Your colleague John Authors wrote a

0:36:58.920 --> 0:37:02.160
<v Speaker 1>great piece on Monday, and he was comparing I think

0:37:02.160 --> 0:37:04.960
<v Speaker 1>that it was a foot see to Apple. Okay, and

0:37:05.000 --> 0:37:07.279
<v Speaker 1>he noted that Apple had passed up the market cap

0:37:07.320 --> 0:37:09.719
<v Speaker 1>size of the foot. Well, what's interesting about it, he

0:37:10.000 --> 0:37:12.279
<v Speaker 1>commented on, Let's just say the capex He pointed out

0:37:12.280 --> 0:37:14.200
<v Speaker 1>the foots he does a hundred eight billion of CAPEX

0:37:14.640 --> 0:37:17.600
<v Speaker 1>versus eight billion dollars of CAPEX and Apple. Okay, do

0:37:17.640 --> 0:37:19.239
<v Speaker 1>you actually take the R and D and add that

0:37:19.280 --> 0:37:20.879
<v Speaker 1>back to those numbers and say, okay, let's just say

0:37:20.880 --> 0:37:23.280
<v Speaker 1>CAPEX and R and D is going to be something

0:37:23.320 --> 0:37:25.759
<v Speaker 1>that kind of decides how sustainable a business model is

0:37:25.760 --> 0:37:28.720
<v Speaker 1>in profitability. Well, the foots he's doing about five fold

0:37:28.760 --> 0:37:31.839
<v Speaker 1>of CAPEX, R and D relative to Apple. So all

0:37:31.880 --> 0:37:34.360
<v Speaker 1>things equal, you'd say, well, probably the company that's reinvesting

0:37:34.400 --> 0:37:37.200
<v Speaker 1>the most would be able to sustain the best. But

0:37:37.239 --> 0:37:40.120
<v Speaker 1>then if you add security prices into that, you'll find that,

0:37:40.360 --> 0:37:43.200
<v Speaker 1>well that's not really true. Right, one is doing one

0:37:43.239 --> 0:37:45.719
<v Speaker 1>fifth the other and has the same market cap. So

0:37:45.880 --> 0:37:49.680
<v Speaker 1>that just highlights how screwed up the allocation of money

0:37:49.800 --> 0:37:52.640
<v Speaker 1>is right now. Now, does that mean that Apple hasn't

0:37:52.680 --> 0:37:54.960
<v Speaker 1>had a lot of success and isn't a great business. No,

0:37:55.120 --> 0:37:57.440
<v Speaker 1>that that's not what it says. It just means the

0:37:57.520 --> 0:38:02.080
<v Speaker 1>capitalization of that is ruining the future returns for investors.

0:38:02.520 --> 0:38:04.839
<v Speaker 1>And we've done we've done, I think in the piece

0:38:04.880 --> 0:38:06.759
<v Speaker 1>we'd share with you guys, we've done some work looking

0:38:06.800 --> 0:38:09.680
<v Speaker 1>at the ten biggest market cups since nineteen eight each decade,

0:38:10.360 --> 0:38:12.840
<v Speaker 1>and you know, IBM had the same thing in it

0:38:12.920 --> 0:38:15.719
<v Speaker 1>was still the biggest company. What did it do? It

0:38:15.800 --> 0:38:18.560
<v Speaker 1>underperformed the market for ten years to still stay the

0:38:18.560 --> 0:38:21.560
<v Speaker 1>biggest company. That's the rule. Did you say IBM? Would

0:38:21.600 --> 0:38:25.160
<v Speaker 1>you really put IBM on Facebook? Uh? In the same category.

0:38:26.920 --> 0:38:29.480
<v Speaker 1>They called it big Blue for a reason. It was

0:38:29.520 --> 0:38:32.000
<v Speaker 1>a small g god in the stock market. And by

0:38:32.000 --> 0:38:34.719
<v Speaker 1>the way, g have the same phenomena at one point too.

0:38:35.239 --> 0:38:38.239
<v Speaker 1>So I say that because um it. Once again, it's

0:38:38.239 --> 0:38:40.960
<v Speaker 1>not the question of whether you know these businesses. I'll

0:38:40.960 --> 0:38:43.160
<v Speaker 1>give example. I think the biggest problem in the market

0:38:43.200 --> 0:38:46.560
<v Speaker 1>is Microsoft, not because it isn't a great business and

0:38:46.600 --> 0:38:48.399
<v Speaker 1>it's not a great not that it's not a great

0:38:48.400 --> 0:38:52.440
<v Speaker 1>American company, it's that that seems so safe to say, oh,

0:38:52.480 --> 0:38:55.000
<v Speaker 1>look at these two great businesses in office and the

0:38:55.000 --> 0:38:58.120
<v Speaker 1>operating system, and then what hosting could be. They feel

0:38:58.160 --> 0:39:01.680
<v Speaker 1>so safe, and yet if people wake up finding out

0:39:01.719 --> 0:39:04.880
<v Speaker 1>that's forty times earnings, will never fulfill their wildest dreams

0:39:05.200 --> 0:39:07.560
<v Speaker 1>and they can actually lose money with the best businesses

0:39:07.560 --> 0:39:12.080
<v Speaker 1>in the world, that will destroy common stock trust. And

0:39:12.120 --> 0:39:14.239
<v Speaker 1>that's why people will do what they do. They use

0:39:14.280 --> 0:39:16.400
<v Speaker 1>survivorship bias. They look at these things and say, oh,

0:39:16.400 --> 0:39:19.799
<v Speaker 1>they're the survivors. They performance chase. They wake up two

0:39:19.840 --> 0:39:22.520
<v Speaker 1>years later getting punished, and that is why I'll have

0:39:22.560 --> 0:39:25.040
<v Speaker 1>a job in ten or twenty years. Here you go,

0:39:25.400 --> 0:39:29.959
<v Speaker 1>and you're a young man as you confidence. Great Cole,

0:39:30.160 --> 0:39:33.440
<v Speaker 1>love catching up with you. Really great cold Smead of course,

0:39:33.520 --> 0:39:36.160
<v Speaker 1>the president portfolio manager at Smeat Capital Management. Johnny's on

0:39:36.200 --> 0:39:40.600
<v Speaker 1>the phone from apparently pretty normal Phoenix, Arizona. Good to

0:39:40.719 --> 0:39:43.560
<v Speaker 1>hear that things are going well out there. Thanks so

0:39:43.600 --> 0:39:46.160
<v Speaker 1>much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:39:46.239 --> 0:39:48.880
<v Speaker 1>on iTunes, South Cloud, Blomberg dot com, but wherever you

0:39:48.960 --> 0:39:51.160
<v Speaker 1>get your podcasts, and of course you can always listen

0:39:51.160 --> 0:39:53.560
<v Speaker 1>to our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg

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