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Speaker 1: All right, this is the Doug Gottlieb Show. Here's in

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Speaker 1: the bonus with Doug Gottlieb.

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Speaker 2: What up Doug Gotlieb Show. In the Bonus Fox Sports Radio,

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Speaker 2: iHeartRadio app.

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Speaker 3: Welcome in. Do Do Do Do Do Do Do Do

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Speaker 3: Do Do Do Do Do do do? I think I've

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Speaker 3: said this before, and I said it yesterday on the

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Speaker 3: radio show. I just I really do love October baseball.

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Speaker 2: And you know it's been warm, like in Chicago last night, beautiful,

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Speaker 2: warm night. Same thing at Yankee Stadium. Obviously, it's always

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Speaker 2: beautiful at h at the Ravine. But last night the

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Speaker 2: Yankees took down the Red Sox. Last night the Cubs

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Speaker 2: took down the Padres, and I thought it was really

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Speaker 2: interesting and really telling as the the umpires walked out

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Speaker 2: the field and the last strike strike three to end

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Speaker 2: the series, wasn't a strike. And we talked about it

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Speaker 2: yesterday where we're like, why don't they use AP We've

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Speaker 2: been talking about they have abs, they're gonna use it

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Speaker 2: next year, They've already tested, they've already used it. They

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Speaker 2: used it in the Ulstar game. Like why not use

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Speaker 2: Like what is actually the downside to using it? But

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Speaker 2: it so it's fasting and there were some bad calls,

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Speaker 2: but as the umpires left the field, the padres, I mean,

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Speaker 2: they let them have it like some terrible fans. The

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Speaker 2: juxtaposition of that and what's happening in the WNBA, where

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Speaker 2: the officiating has been called into question from the start

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Speaker 2: of the season on and now you have one of

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Speaker 2: the league's best players calling for a change atop the

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Speaker 2: leadership of the commissioner. And I would just say this,

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Speaker 2: if we're reasonable people. I don't know how well or

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Speaker 2: how poorly the commissioner has handled this. I'm guessing that

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Speaker 2: some of the things that were reported that she said,

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Speaker 2: there's no way, she said, there's no way, she said, hey,

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Speaker 2: you can thank your lucky stars that you're in the WNBA.

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Speaker 2: That's just not realistic. But all of it appears to

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Speaker 2: be over the officiating. And here is the difference in

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Speaker 2: men's sports and women's sports. The officiating can call into

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Speaker 2: question in the NBA all the time, in the NFL

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Speaker 2: all the time. In Major League Baseball's they were nasty

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Speaker 2: last night, but they didn't call for a change the

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Speaker 2: leadership of the league because they didn't like the officiating.

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Speaker 2: It does feel like this is the WNBA is a

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Speaker 2: very much of a snapshot of a part of society

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Speaker 2: that is not happy with anything right. And you know,

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Speaker 2: look at our own hometowns, no one likes. You may

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Speaker 2: like your own congressman because you've voted for him, but

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Speaker 2: you don't like Congress. You don't like the principal at

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Speaker 2: the school, you don't like your teachers, you don't like

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Speaker 2: we don't like anyone in positions of authority. And it's

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Speaker 2: a little bit of cancel culture, really is. And if

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Speaker 2: the issue with the WNBA's commissioner is that she hasn't

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Speaker 2: changed or fixed the officiating in season, you know, like,

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Speaker 2: that's not a reason to get rid of commissioner. If

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Speaker 2: it's because she's drawing a hard and fast line on

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Speaker 2: their collective ar in your agreement. Again, if you don't

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Speaker 2: like it, bargain for it. If you think your position

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Speaker 2: is strong enough, don't show up. Don't show up. But

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Speaker 2: I find it really interesting that the woman who's leading

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Speaker 2: this charge, her husband is directly connected with a league

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Speaker 2: that in many ways competes with the WNBA, Like don't

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Speaker 2: we all see that? And so blindly the somebody with

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Speaker 2: an obvious bias and focus towards changing their own financial gains.

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Speaker 2: Just wants change, and so what I you know, this

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Speaker 2: happen with Roger Goodell and there is no change made,

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Speaker 2: and the NFL has continue to pile more and more money.

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Speaker 2: The players have made more and more money. They still

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Speaker 2: are probably unhappy, but whatever, they're all happy on the

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Speaker 2: first and the fifteenth. If the WNBA doesn't like their

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Speaker 2: deal and they think there's more money out there, they

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Speaker 2: can withhold their services, they can strike and they can

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Speaker 2: make the WNBA playball. Will they lose a year of

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Speaker 2: money in the process. Possibly, But there's something else at

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Speaker 2: work here which is not about officiating.

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Speaker 3: I don't think.

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Speaker 1: Be sure to catch live editions of The Doug Gottlieb

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Speaker 1: Show weekdays at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on Fox

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Speaker 1: Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app.

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Speaker 2: It's the Doug Gottlieb Show here on Fox Sports Radio.

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Speaker 2: And let's talk some college football, shall we. Kelly Ford

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Speaker 2: joins us. He's got his k Ford Ratings index. Of course,

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Speaker 2: you can see that on Twitter, you can see it online,

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Speaker 2: you can go to his site, and there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of different ways in which he uses the computer data

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Speaker 2: to get you interested. About this weekend in college football?

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Speaker 2: You have your best watch, right, Mike? Most interesting?

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Speaker 3: What's like?

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Speaker 2: What the most interesting watch? Based upon what Themuter computer

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Speaker 2: spits out, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Doug, So every Friday update the watchability scores, and so

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Speaker 4: for this week, you know the top three games that

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Speaker 4: really stand out to me. In the primetime window, we

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Speaker 4: have Miami going on the road to Florida State. That

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Speaker 4: game's got a watchability score of nine point seven out

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Speaker 4: of ten on my watchability scale. And then two afternoon

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Speaker 4: window games. I know the ranked versus rank game that

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Speaker 4: everyone's excited about is Vanderbilt at Alabama. I have that

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Speaker 4: with a nine point one. Number three. I actually have

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Speaker 4: Texas at Florida with a nine point six as my

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Speaker 4: number two game of the week. So an ACC Sunshine

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Speaker 4: States showdown in primetime, and then a couple of SEC

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Speaker 4: matchups big brands in Texas and Florida as well as

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Speaker 4: ranked opponents here with Vanderbilt and Alabama. Obviously, the storylines

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Speaker 4: abound in all of these games. Miami, can they finally

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Speaker 4: make a collegetball playoff? Florida State? Could they bounce back

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Speaker 4: after what was a very disappointing loss last Friday? Night

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Speaker 4: in Charlottesville and conference play Florida the hot seat for

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Speaker 4: Billy Napier. Texas already has lost to Ohio State. They've

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Speaker 4: got to keep it going now to maintain that momentum

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Speaker 4: in SDC play and charge towards Atlanta. Vanderbilt a hot team,

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Speaker 4: number four offense in the entire country for me, Doug

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Speaker 4: right now, diego Pavia. You either love them or you

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Speaker 4: hate them, but they're winning right now. Alabama already has

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Speaker 4: a loss on the resume, plus that big win against

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Speaker 4: Georgia last week? Can they can they reset and come

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Speaker 4: back down from that? They know this Commodore team upset

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Speaker 4: them in Nashville a year ago.

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Speaker 5: Lots of storylines were these top three games?

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Speaker 2: Okay, so I guess here here's the question. Let's start

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Speaker 2: with Vanderbilt and Alabama. What's the like? I thought Alabama like,

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Speaker 2: I wasn't jumping off the ship when they went to

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Speaker 2: Florida State and lost. I was surprised by how they

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Speaker 2: led kind of kickoff to finish in Athens, but they

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Speaker 2: held on to win. The number is a big number,

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Speaker 2: but both are coming off of big wins. How's the

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Speaker 2: computer see that game going?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I never jumped off the Alabama bandwagon either doing Certainly

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Speaker 4: it was a shock to the model to see Florida

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Speaker 4: State going because we didn't know what the Noles were

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Speaker 4: going to be this year. We were going to get

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Speaker 4: the team from two years ago that was you know,

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Speaker 4: snub from the CFP, or last year's team, you know,

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Speaker 4: arguably the most disappointing in the country and maybe in

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Speaker 4: program history coming in too and ten. We didn't know

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Speaker 4: what we were going to get. But Alabama, the model's

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Speaker 4: been pretty consistent on the tide and they're right now

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Speaker 4: the number three power rated team. For me, I've got

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Speaker 4: this with an eighty two percent win ex vectancy for Alabama.

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Speaker 4: I mentioned Vanderbilt has the number four offense in the country. Again,

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Speaker 4: Diego Pavia. What he's doing, what Clark Lee has got

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Speaker 4: going on at Vanderbilt is nothing to stick your nose

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Speaker 4: up at. But Alabama, when it comes down to it,

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Speaker 4: they know this team beat them a year ago. Yes,

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Speaker 4: they just beat Georgia. I expect them to get refocused

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Speaker 4: because the difference dug between last year and this year.

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Speaker 4: Coming off the big Georgia wins, Alabama already has that

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Speaker 4: loss on the resume. They know that if they lose

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Speaker 4: this one, their margin for air is very small. It's

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Speaker 4: not totally eliminated. Last year, nine to three was not

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Speaker 4: good enough for Alabama to get in. Why would we

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Speaker 4: think this year would be any different. They know they've

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Speaker 4: got to win this one to keep that margin of

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Speaker 4: air with what is a very difficult sate sec slate

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Speaker 4: still upcoming road trips to Missouri and Auburn, of course, Tennessee, LSU,

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Speaker 4: Oklahoma all coming to Tuscalusa. They cannot afford to drop

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Speaker 4: this game. Vanderbilt playing with a little bit of house money.

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Speaker 5: Not a lot of people thought they'd be five to zero.

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Speaker 4: The model likes Alabama to take care of business here.

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Speaker 4: Vanderbilt passed the victory, though, is just this offense outscoring

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Speaker 4: the Crimson tide. This game's in Tusa Lousa. I think

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Speaker 4: it's a big, big ass.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so help me out in this perspective. You mentioned

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Speaker 2: Miami and Florida State. Florida State has to bounce back.

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Speaker 2: I lost an absolute heartbreaker, right probably like the best

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Speaker 2: cat that ends up being an incomplete pass I've ever seen.

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Speaker 2: And Virginia holds on for a win. They're matching up

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Speaker 2: with the Miami team, who wasn't just Florida. The beat

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Speaker 2: South Florida the week, you know, a couple weeks ago

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Speaker 2: as well. So they're coming off with two big wins,

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Speaker 2: but very different going to Tallahassee. How's the computer see

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Speaker 2: that game going?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Miami's resume is incredibly impressive. I have them as

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Speaker 4: number two in my most Deserving rankings. You know, this

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Speaker 4: team knocked off Notre Dame, this team beat USF, this

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Speaker 4: team beat Florida, really quality wins here. Now this is

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Speaker 4: their first trip, though away from home, so it's their

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Speaker 4: first time having to go on the road this season.

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Speaker 4: Miami was off last week. I think that's worth noting

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Speaker 4: here from the scheduling dynamic perspective. Florida State, of course,

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Speaker 4: as we talked about it in your right, a crazy

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Speaker 4: way to lose the game, But Florida State shouldn't have

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Speaker 4: been in that position against the Virginia team that is

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Speaker 4: much better than they've been in recent years. But still

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Speaker 4: Florida State, you felt they should have played better. Last week,

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Speaker 4: The Model took no in downgraded the Noles five points.

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Speaker 4: That's a massive downgrade for one week far into the season.

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Speaker 4: The Model does like Miami sixty seven percent win expectanc

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Speaker 4: So basically, you play this game three times, Florida State's

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Speaker 4: going to be expected to win one of those three.

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Speaker 5: Can this be the one?

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Speaker 4: Because yeah, Florida State needs this one. Both of these

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Speaker 4: teams need to be ten and two or better to

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Speaker 4: be in the CFP at large discussion based on my

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Speaker 4: model and my schedule difficulty ratings. As things stands, and

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Speaker 4: if we look at Miami's remaining schedule.

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Speaker 5: It is manageable.

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Speaker 4: There is not a single game after this week that

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Speaker 4: currently has a projected spread of one possession. Florida State meanwhile,

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Speaker 4: still has three more one possession projected spread left on

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Speaker 4: the schedule, a road trip to Clemson in week eleven,

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Speaker 4: and then to close the year, two consecutive road trips

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Speaker 4: of Friday night.

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Speaker 5: We've already seen Florida State lose on.

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Speaker 4: A Friday night this year, a Friday Night at NC State,

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Speaker 4: and then you close the year in the Swamp against

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Speaker 4: the Florida team that who knows.

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Speaker 5: What that team is looking like at that point of

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Speaker 5: the season.

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Speaker 4: But Florida State has a more difficult path moving forward,

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Speaker 4: and they already have the loss.

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Speaker 5: Florida State needs this one at home.

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Speaker 4: But my numbers like the cane sixty seven percent, one expectancy.

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Speaker 2: Sixty seven percent, sixty seven percent. Okay, so let me

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Speaker 2: the other part about this week in college football is

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of massive home dogs. You know, produce

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Speaker 2: a big home dog to Illinois. Uh, Cincinnati's a home

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Speaker 2: dog to U to Iowa State. You look kind of

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Speaker 2: further and further down the slate and you see kind

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Speaker 2: of this this one continuing sort of narrative, Virginia coming

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Speaker 2: off of a gigantic win, going to Louisville, who's undefeated,

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Speaker 2: and now they're actually Louisville's actually a home favorite. Uh.

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Speaker 2: Despite that, does the computer see any of those home

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Speaker 2: dogs jumping up and getting a win?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm looking here, you know, kind of in my

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Speaker 4: Week six upset alert. That's where I like to look at.

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Speaker 4: I don't look at the A people. I look at

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Speaker 4: my k Ford most Deserving rankings. Once the CFP starts

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Speaker 4: putting out their numbers, I'll use that for the top

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Speaker 4: twenty five. But for now, I mean, Doug, there's you know, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven.

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Speaker 4: There's sevent teams and most deserving, top twenty five that

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Speaker 4: are off this week.

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Speaker 5: If we look at the.

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Speaker 4: Teams that are at home that have the greatest chance

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Speaker 4: to win this week, I mean, I'm looking Illinois's got

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Speaker 4: a sixteen percent loss expectancy. You mentioned that game Texas Tech,

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Speaker 4: nineteen percent chance to lose.

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Speaker 5: They're going on the road to a.

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Speaker 4: Houston team that I also have in the most Deserving

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Speaker 4: rankings right now at number twenty one. I don't think

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Speaker 4: the AP is giving them enough love at this point.

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Speaker 4: You know, Maryland is a team that is undefeated right now.

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Speaker 4: I have them number twenty four in the most Deserving rankings.

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Speaker 4: I got a sixty six percent loss expectancy for their

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Speaker 4: game against Washington as the Huskies are coming in off

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Speaker 4: of a loss at home to Ohio State snapped that

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Speaker 4: long win streak that the Huskies had there in Seattle.

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Speaker 4: So those are some you know, Louisville you mentioned that game,

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Speaker 4: thirty percent lose expectancy, so seventy percent chance to beat

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Speaker 4: the Who's So yeah. There. These are the weeks, though,

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Speaker 4: Doug where it appears calm, right.

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Speaker 5: There's not.

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Speaker 4: There's not a lot of games that you're looking at saying, man,

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Speaker 4: that's a triggy game or that's a trap game. These

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Speaker 4: are the kind of weeks that college football has proven

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Speaker 4: to us over the years are the weeks that produce

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Speaker 4: the most chaos. So it does appear on the surface like, hey,

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Speaker 4: we have a good idea of what we're expecting this week,

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Speaker 4: let's just be careful because these are the kind of

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Speaker 4: weeks that typically come up and give us a lot

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Speaker 4: of surprises.

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Speaker 5: So you know, for me, I'm looking at Vanderbilt, Houston.

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Speaker 4: Florida State, Maryland, Iowa State among the teams that I

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Speaker 4: have ranked right now in the top twenty five that

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Speaker 4: are most likely to drop a game here in week six.

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Speaker 1: Be sure to catch live editions of The Doug Gottlieb

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Speaker 1: Show weekdays at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on Fox

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Speaker 1: Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Notre Dame look dominant, Arkansas. They got boise To

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Speaker 2: State coming in at home. They finished undefeated. Do you

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Speaker 2: believe they get in the College fall playoffs?

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Speaker 5: I do, Doug.

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Speaker 4: And here's something that I've caught some heat four on

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Speaker 4: social media, some big surprise, right, people not.

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Speaker 5: Liking what someone posts on social.

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Speaker 4: Media, even though it's just objective numbers the Fighting Irish.

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Speaker 4: Right now they've started ZH to two, they bounce back here.

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Speaker 4: My model, the predicted model, has them number four in

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Speaker 4: the entire country. With regard to looking forward, who are

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Speaker 4: the strongest teams, like right now, Ohio State, Oregon, Alabama.

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Speaker 5: Notre Dame.

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Speaker 4: They're coming in right next at number four. Now, from

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Speaker 4: a resume standpoint, I don't have them ranked in the

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Speaker 4: top twenty five because based on what they've accomplished to date,

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Speaker 4: they don't deserve to be ranked. But if you're asking me,

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Speaker 4: you know, if they've finished ten and two, are they

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Speaker 4: going to get in I would lean towards yes. And

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Speaker 4: right now there's a forty five percent chance that Notre

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Speaker 4: Dame runs the table and finishes this thing ten and two.

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Speaker 4: Based on my numbers, there's not a single game remaining

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Speaker 4: that the Fighting Irish are a single possession favorite. They

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Speaker 4: are a favorite of more than one possession in every

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Speaker 4: single one of their remaining games. It looks like the

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Speaker 4: trickiest might be at Week eight Week eight home game

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Speaker 4: against usc That's the only game left on the schedule

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Speaker 4: that has less than an eighty six percent win expectanc

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Speaker 4: Before the Fighting Irish that's how we get to that

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Speaker 4: forty five percent chance to run the t. So Notre Dame,

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Speaker 4: they have an incredibly strong offense. It's number three in

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Speaker 4: the country. I think it's a defense that's been so

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Speaker 4: surprising to me and many others. This defense has been

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Speaker 4: so strong since Marcus Freeman has been in South Bend.

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Speaker 4: This year, just number forty four and falling.

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Speaker 5: Yes, it was a good showing at Arkansas, but.

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Speaker 4: Giving up thirty points to Purdue, giving up forty one

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Speaker 4: points to Texas A and m twenty seven to a

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Speaker 4: Miami team. Yes, these are good teams, but we've expected

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Speaker 4: more out of the Notre Dame defense. So yeah, I

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Speaker 4: think if Notre Dame gets there, they're ten and two,

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Speaker 4: they have that big brand, They're on a quote ten

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Speaker 4: game winning streak. I don't think that should matter, but

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Speaker 4: the committee certainly plays his value on it. I do

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Speaker 4: think ten and two will be enough for Notre Dame

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Speaker 4: at a minimum to be in the discussion and likely

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Speaker 4: enough to earn a bid into the CFP.

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Speaker 3: Awesome stuff. Awesome stuff.

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Speaker 2: Well, listen, it's a it's all. It's one of those

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Speaker 2: weeks where it doesn't look like a big week on

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Speaker 2: paper right, which usually leads to the big week. That's

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Speaker 2: the way I I don't know if I under like

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Speaker 2: we don't have a you know, a Tennessee game like

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Speaker 2: we had a couple of weeks ago. We don't have

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Speaker 2: a Georgia Alabama game. I was Florida Florida State. We do,

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Speaker 2: but we don't have Penn State Oregon like we did

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Speaker 2: last week. But we do have a lot of I

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Speaker 2: do want to ask one more since we talked Notre

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Speaker 2: Dame long term, can Penn State recover and get in

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Speaker 2: the college ball playoff?

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, Penn State can recover and get back into the

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Speaker 4: costball playoff conversation here, Doug, Yeah, So if I pull

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Speaker 4: up the Penn State projection, excuse me on my website here,

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Speaker 4: So Penn State is still number nine in the model.

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Speaker 4: Yet they were downgraded two points for the performance at

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Speaker 4: home against Oregon, and yet their pass got more narrow

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Speaker 4: because of that loss, because you look at their non

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Speaker 4: commerce schedule in particular. I mean, it's really really bad,

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Speaker 4: and that's why Penn State is nowhere near right now

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Speaker 4: my top twenty five most deserving rankings. But they're still

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Speaker 4: a really good team, and I still have dog. Let's

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Speaker 4: say ten and two, right, ten and two is probably

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Speaker 4: the threshold that they need to reach to be in

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Speaker 4: that at large conversation. And there's still a path for

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Speaker 4: them to get to Indianapolis at the Big Pen Championship game.

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Speaker 4: Now it's a slim one now actually because Oregon holds

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Speaker 4: the head to head against them. But Penn State, you know,

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Speaker 4: if you look at their remaining.

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Speaker 5: Schedule, I've got three games that have a you know.

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Speaker 4: Either a one possession spread or they're an underdog of

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Speaker 4: more than one possession, and it's actually three consecutive games.

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Speaker 4: Week eight, they go on the road to Iowa. Sixty

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Speaker 4: six percent win expectancy for the Nidney Lions, so that's

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Speaker 4: a one possession spread they're often Week nine, then it's

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Speaker 4: a really tough trip to Columbus in week ten, twenty

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Speaker 4: one percent win expectancy there. And then in week eleven,

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Speaker 4: the Hoosiers come to Happy Valley and I've got a

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Speaker 4: fifty one percent win expectancy for Penn State. So you

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Speaker 4: look at that, you're gonna say, Okay, we have to

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Speaker 4: win all the other games on the schedule and then

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Speaker 4: we probably have to go two and one.

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Speaker 5: Are better in those games. Right now, my model gives.

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Speaker 4: That a twenty four percent chance of happening for Penn

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Speaker 4: State to reach at least ten ten wins. So right

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Speaker 4: now it's more likely than not that they don't reach ten.

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Speaker 4: But absolutely this team still has the talent. The defense

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Speaker 4: is really good. It's number five in the country. The

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Speaker 4: offense has been disappointing. There's no two ways about it.

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Speaker 4: You bring it back dro Roller, who many talk about.

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Speaker 4: You know, the former five star had some Heisman hype.

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Speaker 4: Actually that bring up the running back, the skill position players,

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Speaker 4: all sorts of toys. This Penn State team was geared

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Speaker 4: towards winning a national championship in twenty twenty five. They

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Speaker 4: were all in like Ohio State was all in a

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Speaker 4: year ago, and Pence that even brought in Jim Knowles

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Speaker 4: from Ohio State. All they have to do is follow

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Speaker 4: the Ohio State footprint.

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Speaker 5: The Buck Guys lost two games in the.

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Speaker 4: Regular season last year, one of which was two Oregons,

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Speaker 4: and Penn State has lost to Oregon. They might lose

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Speaker 4: to the Buck guys. All they have to do is

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Speaker 4: get in the dance. I think ten and two is enough.

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Speaker 5: To do it.

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Speaker 4: Once they do We've seen Ohio State last year get

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Speaker 4: hot at the right time, and Penn State certainly has

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Speaker 4: that feeling they.

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Speaker 5: Can do it.

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Speaker 4: Many will say they can't because they haven't. I'm more

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Speaker 4: in the camp of that they have it, but that

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Speaker 4: doesn't mean they can't. So we will see. But yes,

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Speaker 4: their pass is more narrow than it was a week ago.

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Speaker 2: That is for certain awesome stuff. As always, that's that's

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Speaker 2: Kelly Ford K four Ratings Index. Check out on social

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Speaker 2: media Twitter, Instagram, course you can see his website as well.

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Speaker 2: He's the best there is. Kelly, thanks so much for

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Speaker 2: joining us.

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Speaker 5: Thank you, Doug, I appreciate it.

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Speaker 2: All right, that's it for the end the Bonus Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm Doug Gottlieb. We'll check you tomorrow. This is in

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Speaker 2: the Bonus