1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:06,160 Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg Sound on 2 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:10,320 Speaker 1: the next year is going to be an ugly election 3 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: year in which you can expect very little to get done. 4 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:16,760 Speaker 1: To death to its become a fernitia political tool which 5 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: doesn't help you the party. Bloomberg Sound on Politics, Policy 6 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: and Perspective from DC's top name for confident at the 7 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: end of the day that the Senate is going to 8 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: put American families first. You heard thirty million Americans are 9 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 1: expecting and waiting for us to move the ball forward 10 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,320 Speaker 1: and get stuff done. And when that doesn't happen, and 11 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 1: this frustration. Bloomberg Sound On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, 12 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: we start the fastest hour in politics with tensions on 13 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 1: the other side of the world and America's evolving relationship 14 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:51,160 Speaker 1: with China. Joining us to talk about it is d J. Peterson, 15 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: President of long View Global Advisors, a political advisory firm 16 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: based in l a that brings information to investors and corporations. 17 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: He was formerly with the Eurasia Group and the Rand 18 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 1: Corporation and spends a good deal of time analyzing our 19 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 1: foreign policy. DJ Welcome to Bloomberg Radio. Thank you for 20 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 1: having me The line that we've been hearing from the 21 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:17,080 Speaker 1: Biden administration is that our relationship is one of competition 22 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: but not conflict. How does that how do you rationalize 23 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:25,200 Speaker 1: that with the idea of this being a Cold war? Well, 24 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: we don't. You know, the Soviet Union and the United 25 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: States never had a hot war and so but they 26 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 1: were in US TREDGA competition. And I think that is 27 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 1: very much the formulation UM in Washington. Now, a Biden 28 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:45,760 Speaker 1: administration does not want to have all the conflicts associated 29 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 1: with the Cold War proxy wars in other countries for instance, UM, 30 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: very strict technological separation, bifurcation. UM. But the road that 31 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 1: the United States is going down, the road that aging 32 00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: is going down, is one that is ultimately around competition 33 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: and UM. The I think it's really important to think 34 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 1: about the previous generation of growing US China economic ties 35 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: as really a past era, and now we're really going more, 36 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 1: much more towards disengagement economically, technologically, politically, socially, culturally. Hence 37 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 1: the action that we've seen in Chinese stocks, for instance, 38 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: is that relationship with the US over I think for 39 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 1: for many investors, China is an important diversification part of 40 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:46,119 Speaker 1: a diversification strategy. It is a large global economy UM. 41 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: It has increasingly deep markets capital markets UM and the 42 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 1: bond markets for instance, as well as equity markets and so. 43 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 1: On one hand, it is attractive, but if you look at, 44 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:01,680 Speaker 1: for instance, the return on the Shanghai Stock Exchange over 45 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 1: the last five years, it's really been up and down 46 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:08,359 Speaker 1: and maybe has returned about thirteen fifteen percent over the 47 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:10,959 Speaker 1: past five years. That's compared with a hundred and ten 48 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: percent return from the SMP five hundred. So in many ways, 49 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: China hasn't delivered on the investment that I think a 50 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: lot of people were expecting. And I think that's going 51 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: to be a much more important question in the coming year. 52 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 1: Certainly didn't this year. UH. Interesting reaction may be predictable 53 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: from the Chinese after President Biden signed the n d 54 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 1: a A, the National Defense Authorization Acts UH. It includes 55 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: a carve out some seven billion dollars for what we 56 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 1: call the Pacific Deterrence Initiative. Our moves like this helpful 57 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 1: or do they make it more difficult to maintain a 58 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: cold not hot war. That's exactly right. It is very 59 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: difficult to maintain UM kind of what we might call 60 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 1: strategics to bid city or or tit for tat. Moves 61 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: that the US see as in its is it's in 62 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: its interests are pretty much seen by Beijing as zero. 63 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 1: Some are going against its interests, and so US efforts, 64 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: for instance, a legislation in Washington right now to invest 65 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 1: significantly in science and technology is seen by Beijing as 66 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:28,159 Speaker 1: a threat. But the US initiative is in part a 67 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 1: response to now many years of heavy Chinese investment in domestics, 68 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 1: science and technology, So it is very much a tip 69 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,279 Speaker 1: for tat um. In some ways, we'll see great benefits 70 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: from innovation in both countries, and both we will see 71 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: benefits across border. But I think this kind of zero 72 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: sum mentality that anything that we do is seen negatively 73 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 1: by the by Beijing and vice versa, is just I 74 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: think there as a signature hallmark of a Cold War era. 75 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:06,480 Speaker 1: It's interesting because Beijing accused the US of of harboring 76 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:11,039 Speaker 1: an obsolete Cold War mentality in the statement that followed 77 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,480 Speaker 1: the signing of the n d A A that also include, 78 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 1: by the way, this ban on purchasing products made by 79 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 1: by weaker forced labor camps. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson who 80 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 1: who wrote the statement called this political manipulation. Are these 81 00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:27,840 Speaker 1: the kind of of words, this is the kind of 82 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 1: rhetoric you expect? Or is this actionable? You know? I 83 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 1: think it's it's it's very telling. Um. The Chinese government 84 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 1: has become profoundly dismayed with its strategic relationship in the 85 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 1: past with the United States, and you see it in 86 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:47,600 Speaker 1: their language. They are just not pulling any punches. They're 87 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 1: calling it like they see it, with quite hostile language. Now, 88 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 1: obviously there's many voices in the US um in Congress 89 00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 1: for instance, that have also very stride and anti Chinese rhetoric. 90 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 1: But from a government on a government to government basis, 91 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: this is it's pretty strident, and I think it's it 92 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: signals the depth of the ambivalence, if not anger and 93 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: frustration with the other side. And again, in many ways, 94 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:20,680 Speaker 1: going back to your question about Beijing and the Olympic, Um, 95 00:06:20,720 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 1: it's just playing out right there in on the playing field, 96 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: so to speak. How real becomes the concern about Taiwan 97 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: In two just just breathing the word out loud the 98 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: name of the island nation was enough to get President 99 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 1: Biden in a little bit of hot water. Do we 100 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: actually believe that this could end in military action. If 101 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,080 Speaker 1: you think about the Cold War in the U. S. 102 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 1: Soviet relationship, for the first ten fifteen years of the 103 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: of that Cold War and basically until the Cuban Missile crisis, 104 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: it was very much an unregulated competition. And then after 105 00:06:57,279 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 1: the Cuban Missile crisis, the country start, you know, agreeing 106 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:07,080 Speaker 1: to arms control and regularizing the competition. Right now, we 107 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: don't have that with China. There's no regularization um or 108 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: kind of guard rails on the on the conflict or 109 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: the tensions. We see this obviously in places like cyberspace 110 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: and cyber security. Taiwan is very much in that realm 111 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: because the nature of the US commitment to Taiwan is 112 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: actually quite vague um and the level of concern in 113 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 1: Beijing about Taiwan's independence it's very clear, but it is 114 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 1: they aren't sending a very clear signal or we don't 115 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: really know what is their ultimate red line. And so 116 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: what we're seeing in two is that this competition over 117 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: this island is going to become more complex. If you 118 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: think about Hong Kong, Hong Kong was the Berlin of 119 00:07:58,720 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: the Nine Lost. It's been lost in some ways to 120 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: the west. Now the next field of play is Taiwan. 121 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:08,360 Speaker 1: So what's your thought, if you can pull out your 122 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: crystal balling, how far China can push the line on this. 123 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 1: Obviously they want to test our limits. Well, it's that's 124 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: a great question. One of the things that we learned 125 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 1: about the Soviet Union was its leadership in many ways 126 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 1: on the big issues was very risk averse. Obviously we 127 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: never got into a hot direct conflict, and in many 128 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:32,079 Speaker 1: ways they avoided that. And China experts people who understand 129 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:35,559 Speaker 1: very closely the kind of as well as they can. 130 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 1: The internal thinking in in China is the Chinese government 131 00:08:39,640 --> 00:08:44,439 Speaker 1: also is risk averse in many ways. And so the 132 00:08:44,520 --> 00:08:48,559 Speaker 1: building up this notion of of kind of a cross 133 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 1: straits conflict, uh ballooning or kind of erupting into a 134 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 1: hot war, I think is more unlikely, but it is. 135 00:08:57,640 --> 00:09:00,439 Speaker 1: It is one of these fat tail risks. Um is 136 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 1: it five is a ten which has a tremendous effect 137 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 1: um if you think about it on global stability. If 138 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: it's not fighting over Taiwan, it could be fighting over 139 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 1: cyber security. That is a threat that's been outlined clearly 140 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,760 Speaker 1: by this White House. How prepared are we to respond, Well, 141 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: it's it's interesting if you talk to cyber security experts, 142 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 1: they say that the number of attacks was a record, 143 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 1: and obviously they're coming from many different um sources. China 144 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,800 Speaker 1: is just one of them. Um. Again, one of the 145 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 1: key challenges is, unlike with the nuclear weapons competition, which 146 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:43,319 Speaker 1: was state to state and we knew that the Soviet 147 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 1: Union had missiles and we could we could negotiate with 148 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 1: them directly, the problem with cybersecurity is theirs deniability. It's like, 149 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: who are the actors and are they really directly controlled 150 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: by the state, and then how do you ring fence 151 00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 1: them in a say, in some kind of security agreement. 152 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:05,720 Speaker 1: So again, it's a very unregulated field of competition right now, 153 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:09,320 Speaker 1: and in many ways, as we saw for instance last 154 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 1: year with the shutdown of the Colonial pipeline, it has 155 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 1: it has potentially significant and unexpected circumstances. I just wonder 156 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 1: if that is the battleground that we should be looking 157 00:10:19,520 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 1: at as opposed to the traditional war they. I think 158 00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 1: it's certainly from a business perspective that is that is essential. Um. 159 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:33,680 Speaker 1: We have again just proliferation not only in attacks, but 160 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 1: in the in the in the kinds of attacks UM 161 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 1: and the obviously with the US economy, with the global economy, 162 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 1: so data dependent and and and a dependent on data 163 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:48,960 Speaker 1: flows UM every year, obviously, we're becoming more and more 164 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: exposed of more ahead. With DJ Peterson on sound On, 165 00:10:52,559 --> 00:11:02,520 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This Bloomer is Bloomberg. So long with 166 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: Joe Mathew on Bloomberg Radio. Thanks for spending part of 167 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 1: your Wednesday with us on Bloomberg sound On. As we 168 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 1: spend time reviewing our relationship with China, where we've been 169 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 1: this year, where we may be going in the new year, 170 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: with an expert. D. J. Peterson is president of long 171 00:11:22,320 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 1: View Global Advisors. The Biden administration will start the new 172 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:32,680 Speaker 1: year by boycotting the Beijing Olympics. As we consider China's 173 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 1: relationship with the US, how will it help to define 174 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 1: politics here in America? I think we need to consider 175 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 1: the relationship as Cold War two. I was trained UM 176 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:48,719 Speaker 1: as an expert on the First Cold War between the 177 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 1: United States and the Soviet Union, and so many of 178 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:58,560 Speaker 1: the hallmarks of that superpower competition I see now unfolding 179 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 1: both in Washington and in Beijing. DJ, obviously, COVID is 180 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: the whole story of its own here. I wonder if 181 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: you see President Biden and President She actually getting in 182 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 1: the same room at some point in the new year, 183 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:17,200 Speaker 1: will there be more dialogue and will it depend on COVID, Right, 184 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:21,640 Speaker 1: That's a great question. Interestingly, what we saw in one 185 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 1: was that the Chinese did not join many very important 186 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: global discussion in person. They phoned it in. Part of 187 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 1: that was because of COVID, and part of that was 188 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:39,240 Speaker 1: again this ambivalence um and reticence of losing faith on 189 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:43,560 Speaker 1: a public stage. So that's again I think an important question. 190 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:49,800 Speaker 1: For clearly Beijing Olympics is not going to be the 191 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 1: platform that they had with the Summer Olympics years ago. 192 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: In fact, the Olympics this year, the Winter Olympics is 193 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 1: probably going to shine a much more, uh, let's say, 194 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 1: a lot more scrutiny on the country and question, and 195 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 1: of course because of COVID in the background, it's certainly 196 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:12,200 Speaker 1: not going to have the celebratory atmosphere that Beijing would 197 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,320 Speaker 1: have liked to have. It's an interesting idea, the thought 198 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: that the world will be watching Beijing, uh, even if 199 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: the US is not there. We're doing what we're doing. 200 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 1: Although our athletes will be taking part. I just wonder 201 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 1: what kind of stories and what level of scrutiny to 202 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 1: use your term, might result from that. I don't see, Frankly, 203 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: I don't see a lot of positive stories coming out 204 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 1: of the Olympics for China. There'll be a lot of questions, 205 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 1: as was with the last Winter Olympics in Russia about UH, 206 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: human rights issues around the you know, the model, the 207 00:13:50,320 --> 00:13:55,200 Speaker 1: economic model of Winter Games, um, and how sustainable it 208 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: is or is it only sustained by authoritarian regime um. 209 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:02,520 Speaker 1: Of course, first, the human rights issue will be always 210 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:05,360 Speaker 1: be playing in the background. UM. So I think for 211 00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: Western brands that have invested heavily in the Olympics, it's 212 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 1: going to be very difficult to get a lot of 213 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 1: lift from these games. And then of course you have 214 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 1: COVID in people's minds or elsewhere. So what's the upshot 215 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: for China? Not much, it'll be it'll obviously get a 216 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 1: lot of domestic play um. Paradoxically, what you're seeing is 217 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 1: very strict lockdowns in China right now around fear of 218 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: O macron and UH that's you know, in itself, creating 219 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: a lot of domestic disruption and domestic frustration UM so 220 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 1: in some ways, with the threat of O Macron, which 221 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: appears to be evading zero even zero tolerance policies. UM, 222 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 1: it's very difficult to see how this is going to 223 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 1: be a very happy story even at home in China. 224 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: If US investors are done with China. Getting back to 225 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 1: kind of where we started our conversation, we have this, 226 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 1: this difficult situation with the Olympics to start the new year, 227 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 1: this could be an economically damaging year for Beijing. What 228 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:15,800 Speaker 1: do you see happening to their economy? Well, I think 229 00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 1: there's several forces in play here. First of all, the 230 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 1: long term trend, which is um sharply slower population growth. 231 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 1: Another factor you have seen is that the consumer economy, 232 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:35,000 Speaker 1: the domestic consumer economy, hasn't grown as fast as the 233 00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 1: leadership would like despite all of its efforts. And then 234 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: you see issues such as in commercial real estate and 235 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: the Boston commercial real estate, and the governments in many 236 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: cases very um intentional efforts to restructure and unwind the 237 00:15:53,400 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 1: problems in that sector still has very significant negative impact 238 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: on consumer sentiment because so many households have invested in 239 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 1: real estate as as as as part of their nest eggs. 240 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 1: So there, and then of course you have the COVID lockdowns, 241 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 1: and so you have I think several pressures downward, pressures 242 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 1: on domestic growth in UM and in the future years. 243 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: And what we've seen is the Chinese government itself has 244 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:29,080 Speaker 1: really just trying to really significantly um temper expectations for 245 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: growth in the coming year, uh, you know, in the 246 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 1: five percent range, whereas in the past it's been in 247 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: the eight percent. Rich This is a significant shift in 248 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 1: some cases as much needed, but corporate strategies globe of 249 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:45,240 Speaker 1: global companies are really going to have to rethink kind 250 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 1: of their growth expectations for China two and beyond. Dj Peterson, 251 00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 1: president of long View Global Advisors, appreciate your insights today. 252 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: Would love to compare notes in twenty two and see 253 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: where we are. I look forward to it. Thank you 254 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:03,119 Speaker 1: for having me. Coming up, we assemble the panel Bloomberg 255 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: Politics contributors Jeanie Shenzano and Rick Davis for the rest 256 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: of the hour. We'll have their take on all this, 257 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 1: and we'll check traffic and markets for you on the way. 258 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 1: So stay with us on the fastest hour in politics. 259 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 1: I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg you're listening to Bloomberg 260 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 1: Sound On with Joe Matthew On Bloomberg Radio, d J. 261 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: Peterson described our relationship with China as Cold War too. 262 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: Let's see how the panel feels about it as we 263 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: bring in Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeanie Shenzano and Rick Davis. Rick, 264 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 1: I know you have strong feelings about China. How will 265 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 1: the U S China relationship be defined in the new year, 266 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:56,960 Speaker 1: knowing that we're essentially starting the new year with a 267 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: boycott of the Olympics. Yeah, I think that we've been 268 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: ruggling to find the right adjective to describe this relationship 269 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:05,919 Speaker 1: between the US and China, and and and and certainly 270 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 1: at a minimum, it's competition, right his competition economical White 271 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 1: House was uh, it's competition militarily uh, and and and 272 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 1: what you hope is that that competition does not digress, 273 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:22,679 Speaker 1: uh into conflict. Uh. That's the other C word that 274 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 1: you don't want to use when in relation to China, Jennie, 275 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 1: when we think about twenty two, what will it involve? 276 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:32,880 Speaker 1: Knowing that we've upset China apparently repeatedly about Taiwan, even 277 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:35,600 Speaker 1: with the signing of the n d a A. Does 278 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,120 Speaker 1: there need to be an in person summit between President's 279 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:40,879 Speaker 1: Biden and she. I think that would be a step forward. 280 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: I mean, we have seen you know, talks um. It 281 00:18:43,800 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 1: would great to see an in person you know. I 282 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 1: think one of the big challenges here goes well beyond 283 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:52,840 Speaker 1: the Biden administration. You can go back to Donald Trump 284 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,880 Speaker 1: and before. It's been the fact that the United States 285 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:01,640 Speaker 1: plans visa v China are difficult to tease out. They 286 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: are unclear. The goals, yes, as Rick mentioned, more competition, 287 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 1: but what does that mean exactly and what's the strategy 288 00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 1: they're going to use. I think one of the things 289 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: during the campaign, Joe Biden's campaign with Donald Trump we 290 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:16,959 Speaker 1: talked about was that there was supposed to be a 291 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:19,240 Speaker 1: difference in terms of his approach to foreign policy. We 292 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:21,919 Speaker 1: haven't seen that yet, um, and I think, you know, 293 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 1: a year in that's still where we are. I think 294 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 1: the White House is right to be concerned about what 295 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 1: happens visa via China next year and beyond. But the 296 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,919 Speaker 1: United States needs a concerted strategy. And you know, one 297 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:36,920 Speaker 1: of the ones we hear an awful lot about these 298 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:41,360 Speaker 1: days is a you know, a renewed focus on containment 299 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 1: of China. What that means exactly is something the administration 300 00:19:45,240 --> 00:19:47,760 Speaker 1: is going to have to define, and so far we 301 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:49,880 Speaker 1: haven't heard that yet. Rick, how do you keep a 302 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 1: cold war from becoming a hot war? And I ask 303 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,640 Speaker 1: you that knowing that you just breathe the word Taiwan 304 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 1: and you're gonna get flyovers. You're going to have some 305 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,919 Speaker 1: kind of an reception of the South China. See, this 306 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: is real stuff. It's not just rhetoric. It's actual military action. 307 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: It's actual military action. But it's not conflict. That's the 308 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 1: right question is how do you avoid the conflict? And 309 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:14,760 Speaker 1: I think that that may be self defining China itself. 310 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:20,479 Speaker 1: UH is a new UH superpower when it comes to military, right, 311 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 1: They've just built all the systems, the navy systems, the 312 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: satellite systems, the air force, the navy is all brand new, right, 313 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 1: the you know, and and and we still outnumber them 314 00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,639 Speaker 1: with ships and planes and those things. But and so 315 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: it may be some time before the Chinese actually feel 316 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:41,880 Speaker 1: competitive with the US. UH. Is that three to five years? UH? 317 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,960 Speaker 1: And we may have that window inside UH these world 318 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 1: events to stop any conflict from happening because we still 319 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 1: potentially have the advantage if we now double down on 320 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:56,520 Speaker 1: our own military capacity and keep pace, then maybe that's 321 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:58,320 Speaker 1: the best way to avoid conflict. I come from the 322 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 1: Reagan era, UH piece through strength. Truly believe that that's 323 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,800 Speaker 1: how we won the Cold War and UH with Russia 324 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:09,200 Speaker 1: and the Soviet Union. UH, and that may be how 325 00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 1: we win the Cold War with China by being just 326 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 1: as strong, if not stronger than they are. They understand 327 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 1: the balance of power and will act accordingly. I could 328 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:21,360 Speaker 1: ask you the same question about Ukraine with regard to 329 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 1: our relationship with Russia, Genie, do we really believe uh 330 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 1: that that military action could come from Taiwan, that either 331 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: side would allow that to happen. I think it's a concern. 332 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,919 Speaker 1: I think we are hoping that that doesn't happen. But 333 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: I do think it's a concern, and it wasn't yet. 334 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:40,160 Speaker 1: You know a couple of months ago that we saw 335 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:45,920 Speaker 1: tests China testing rather these hypersonic tests, these these weapons, 336 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:50,320 Speaker 1: and they are building a military now we're talking, you know, 337 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,160 Speaker 1: just as the President has signed what a seven sixty 338 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 1: eight billion dollar bill for the military um and yet 339 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,480 Speaker 1: we are seven or sixty eight billion defend spill. But 340 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 1: you know, we have a right to be concerned about 341 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 1: where China is, that is is increasing its network of 342 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 1: underground silos. Um there is concerned because it has not 343 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: been open to joining nuclear arms control talks and all 344 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,879 Speaker 1: of this going on as we are concerned, rightly so 345 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: about the future of Taiwan. So you know, I don't 346 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: think we can be clear or sure about what is 347 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 1: going to happen there, and I think the President is 348 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: right to be concerned, but I would like to see 349 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,320 Speaker 1: him lay out what are the options and how are 350 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,600 Speaker 1: we going to address it. What's your thought, Rick, on 351 00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,919 Speaker 1: a summit when we're talking about hypersonic missile tests. Some 352 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:39,760 Speaker 1: of this stuff is getting pretty close to the line. 353 00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,399 Speaker 1: Do they need to be talking or is that rewarding 354 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: China for bad behavior? I think you hit the nail 355 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 1: right on the head there, Joe. We just had a 356 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,919 Speaker 1: summit three hours with g and Joe Biden virtually and 357 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: nothing got accomplished. Really, I mean there was no agreements, 358 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 1: there were no directionals. I mean a bunch of issues 359 00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:00,200 Speaker 1: were discussed. Uh And and if anything, I look back 360 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 1: on that and I say, Okay, well, what why did 361 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,360 Speaker 1: we do that? What was it in it for us. 362 00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:09,160 Speaker 1: Did we when the public relations war, did we get 363 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,520 Speaker 1: them to agree to limitations on military buildup? No? And 364 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:16,000 Speaker 1: so I think that if you have an outcome you desire, 365 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 1: if it's a nuclear treaty or something like that, and 366 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,640 Speaker 1: you believe you can get it, you only meet with 367 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 1: UH President she if you already have that agreement underway, 368 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 1: and and and and the and the simple fact of 369 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,440 Speaker 1: it is is you're just going through the kabuki dance 370 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 1: of assigning and an announcement. That is the way summits 371 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,360 Speaker 1: were in the past. And I think the Biden administration 372 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: has enough old hands on that they would look at 373 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 1: this and say, we can't meet with this guy, given 374 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,879 Speaker 1: legitimacy of the Western world and not get anything for it. 375 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 1: So what's the strategy in the new year, then, Genie? 376 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:56,160 Speaker 1: Is it? Is it working with our allies projecting strength 377 00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: in the Asia Pacific region. That is what we're hearing 378 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 1: um and I think you hear from you know, Mark 379 00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,880 Speaker 1: Millie and others. I mean, he is making project projections 380 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 1: at in the next you know, ten to twenty years 381 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 1: that this is going to be the biggest strategic challenge 382 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,159 Speaker 1: to the United States. Is going to be coming from 383 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 1: China and their military prowess and the growth that we've 384 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:23,640 Speaker 1: seen in the last several decades is really significant. So 385 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 1: you know, yes, our allies are important. I think face 386 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 1: to face communication. I don't think there's a big loss there, 387 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 1: but it's got to be more than that. And again, 388 00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,600 Speaker 1: containment's the one thing we keep hearing, but we don't 389 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,399 Speaker 1: have a good definition from the administration yet as to 390 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,920 Speaker 1: what that means exactly and what it might look like. 391 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 1: And to you do that and keep you know, competing 392 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:47,640 Speaker 1: economically is a big question. Sorry to interrupt, Genie. Our 393 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 1: our panel today Bloomberg Politics contributors geniue Chanzano and Rick 394 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 1: Davis with us on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg, So No. 395 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:05,399 Speaker 1: With Joe Mathew on Bloomberg Radio. We spent a good 396 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 1: shot of time this hour talking about how our relationship 397 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:12,399 Speaker 1: with China will be defined in two It's certainly a 398 00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 1: major issue for the Biden administration, but it's not the 399 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:19,400 Speaker 1: only one, especially as we consider the withdrawal from Afghanistan 400 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 1: and our relationship currently with Russia, both of which have 401 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 1: left a lot of people concerned about the foreign policy 402 00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,920 Speaker 1: in this White House and We're discussing all of this 403 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:33,040 Speaker 1: with Genie and Rick Bloomberg Politics contributors Genie Shenzino and 404 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 1: Rick Davis. Uh. The withdrawal from Afghanistan was an important 405 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 1: moment as we look back on this past year. Rick, 406 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 1: this was a white House and Genie managed a little 407 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 1: earlier in the hour that was supposed to be different, 408 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 1: that was supposed to be sensitive to foreign policy, to 409 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:51,200 Speaker 1: be deeply experienced, starting with the President himself, long time 410 00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,399 Speaker 1: Foreign Relations UH Committee chair in the U. S. Senate 411 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,919 Speaker 1: member of the committee, what do you think about the 412 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 1: credibility that may have been lost in the withdrawal from 413 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 1: Afghanistan and how much of a mess is left behind. 414 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 1: I think it really signaled the decline of this administration 415 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 1: in this first year. If you'll remember, I mean, this 416 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 1: administration was on a roll American rescue plan in January, 417 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,480 Speaker 1: you know, Uh, all of a sudden, they've gotten a 418 00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:22,879 Speaker 1: job's plan done. In March, Uh, his job approval rating 419 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,119 Speaker 1: was going incredibly well, and then they announced in April 420 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 1: they're gonna withdraw from Afghanistan, and by August they do 421 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:33,120 Speaker 1: it in the sloppiest way possible, And not since then 422 00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 1: have they seen any positives really come out of the administration, 423 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,119 Speaker 1: and so I think it was the dog whistle that 424 00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 1: actually hearkened the decline of the first year the Biden administration. 425 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,920 Speaker 1: Nobody wants to give credit to foreign policy is being 426 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,439 Speaker 1: something that could affect domestic policy. But it's either an 427 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,920 Speaker 1: incredible coincidence or you'd have to admit that people lost 428 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 1: confidence in the ability of this administration of function by 429 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,919 Speaker 1: virtue of the disastre called the Afghanistan withdrawal. I know, 430 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,360 Speaker 1: as a Democrat you were very critical of the administration 431 00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:07,160 Speaker 1: during that time, and we went through this in real 432 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:10,080 Speaker 1: time together here on the air. Genie, I just wonder 433 00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,320 Speaker 1: what you make of the fallout. It's not being discussed 434 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,439 Speaker 1: in a broader forum. It's not it's not the news 435 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,400 Speaker 1: story of the day that's getting a lot of talk 436 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 1: or analysis. But there's still festering problems in Afghanistan that 437 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 1: we may well have to manage. Absolutely there are, and 438 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,800 Speaker 1: you know, you look just at the issue and I 439 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 1: shouldn't even use the word just um the treatment of women. 440 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,439 Speaker 1: The reports were getting over there of the treatment of 441 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:38,000 Speaker 1: women and girls over there. You look at the amount 442 00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,880 Speaker 1: of poverty, the number of people going hungry. I mean, 443 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,360 Speaker 1: the list just keeps ratcheting up. And this was the 444 00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 1: fear when the United States left in the way that 445 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 1: it did, was we left a vacuum and we allowed 446 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,359 Speaker 1: these forces to come in and fill that vacuum. And 447 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 1: that's always the fear. And you know, Joe Biden is 448 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:01,359 Speaker 1: not the only one who owns this, but of course 449 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 1: he was at the helm and the execution of our withdraw. 450 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:08,359 Speaker 1: Even if you support it, support the withdrawn, the end, 451 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,720 Speaker 1: the execution was poorly managed. I mean, look at the 452 00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 1: loss of life alone amongst Americans, let alone people on 453 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,639 Speaker 1: the ground. So it's something that he's going to have 454 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 1: to contend with going forward. And we haven't seen a 455 00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,240 Speaker 1: real strategy out of the White House. You know, you 456 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:27,239 Speaker 1: look at our relationship with Pakistan, for instance, right on 457 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,199 Speaker 1: the border. It's um you know, something you're seeing a 458 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 1: lot of talk about these days. They still haven't had 459 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,960 Speaker 1: a concerted conversation with m Ron Khan and he's a 460 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:39,920 Speaker 1: year into his administration. These are problems for the White House, 461 00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 1: well one or the other. Of course, great fears Rick 462 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,960 Speaker 1: was that Afghanistan would once again become a base for terror. 463 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 1: We have not seen that happen. We also haven't heard 464 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:52,600 Speaker 1: over the horizon references for a bit. Is this the 465 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,880 Speaker 1: new reality in Afghanistan or is it something you'll be 466 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:58,400 Speaker 1: worried about in two oh I think people will be 467 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,280 Speaker 1: worried about it in the national secure ardi field. They 468 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:05,040 Speaker 1: know they can't see, UH, the events and activities that 469 00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 1: are happening within the terrorist organizations that occupy space in UM. 470 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 1: In Afghanistan, we we know from news reports that there 471 00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:17,800 Speaker 1: is an active war going on internally with the Taliban 472 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 1: versus uh ISIS and and and and. You know, when 473 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:23,960 Speaker 1: your enemies are destroying each other, get out of the way, 474 00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 1: is the old saying. Um. Uh. This may keep the 475 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 1: Taliban government pinned down for a while. UH. We also 476 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:33,720 Speaker 1: know that the Northern Alliance has constructed itself to the 477 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 1: point where they could pose a threat to the Taliban. 478 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,840 Speaker 1: So I don't think we've seen at all the conclusion 479 00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:45,520 Speaker 1: of what will happen in Afghanistan. UM. Some of those 480 00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,920 Speaker 1: options could be better for the United States, but some 481 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,440 Speaker 1: are a lot worse. And that is UH groups that 482 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:55,240 Speaker 1: threatened our existence, you know, having a safe haven in 483 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 1: a place where we thought we'd spent the blood and 484 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,000 Speaker 1: treasure to deny them many years ago. You don't see 485 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,120 Speaker 1: a world genie in which US troops are sent back 486 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 1: to Afghanistan to retake bog Room or some of the 487 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 1: other ideas we heard about last summer. It's hard to 488 00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,160 Speaker 1: imagine in the short term seeing anything like that, there 489 00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 1: being any political will to do that. And yet, as 490 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,680 Speaker 1: we know, all having lived through nine eleven, you sort 491 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,200 Speaker 1: of never predict what's going to happen because events occur. 492 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 1: If there is a widespread terrorist attack, for instance, on 493 00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,440 Speaker 1: US soil that emanates from that region, what does the 494 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,600 Speaker 1: United States do? What does Biden do? Does he not 495 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,600 Speaker 1: respond by sending in troops? So you know, I don't 496 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 1: see it happening in the short term, But you can't 497 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 1: predict those kinds of events that would get us back 498 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 1: involved where we've been so many times before. You know, 499 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,360 Speaker 1: we talked about public sentiment, and I don't know, Rick, 500 00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 1: when you get to the end of next year, when 501 00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:47,880 Speaker 1: we're talking about voting in the mid terms, what will 502 00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 1: be America's memory of this or will it simply be, Hey, 503 00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,280 Speaker 1: Joe Biden is the guy who got us out of Afghanistan. 504 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,000 Speaker 1: You know, I don't think it will be so much 505 00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 1: about the success of Afghanistan, you know, getting troops out. Um. 506 00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,080 Speaker 1: I think you sort of marked that to market. Uh. 507 00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 1: It's been around a long time, and positive news never 508 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,760 Speaker 1: really gets much traction beyond the event itself. It's the 509 00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:11,200 Speaker 1: negativity that gets UH replayed in commercials all around America, 510 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:13,719 Speaker 1: in these congressional districts and states. And that will be 511 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 1: the incompetent withdrawal, right, I mean, competency issues were what 512 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 1: we thought, as you remarked, we were getting away from 513 00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:26,440 Speaker 1: as we moved past the Trump administration. UH. And this 514 00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:31,120 Speaker 1: demonstrated a level of incompetency within the Biden administration that 515 00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:35,240 Speaker 1: I think shocked voters and and if reminded of that, UH, 516 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,880 Speaker 1: may depress the Democratic turnout because it wasn't just Republican 517 00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,760 Speaker 1: voters who were shocked. It was Democratic voters who were 518 00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,160 Speaker 1: shocked too. Of course, Russia was watching all of this happen, 519 00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 1: and with its experience, it's long experience going back to 520 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,680 Speaker 1: the Soviet days in Afghanistan. Maybe not a lot of 521 00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 1: surprises there, but Russia pretty quick to it to try 522 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 1: to fill the vacuum. Genie and I wonder how our 523 00:31:56,080 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 1: relationship with Vladimir Putin will be defined to This is 524 00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 1: a whole other story. We talked earlier about China. Russia 525 00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 1: is one that is critically important and urgent right now. 526 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,160 Speaker 1: With the hundred thousand troops line up against the Ukrainian border, 527 00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 1: this is about as important as it gets for the 528 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 1: Biden administration when it comes to geopolitics. That's right. And 529 00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:19,520 Speaker 1: and of course you know Russia, you know, focused as 530 00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:22,840 Speaker 1: it is on the Ukraine, but also focused on this 531 00:32:23,000 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 1: NATO alliance and you know, wants to make sure that 532 00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 1: the United States and the NATO Alliance are not moving 533 00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:34,720 Speaker 1: into its territory. So you know, they have. The President 534 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 1: came in, you know, vowing to re establish these alliances 535 00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,160 Speaker 1: in a way that he didn't feel the previous administration did. 536 00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 1: And we are seeing pushback on that. UM. So you know, 537 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,560 Speaker 1: what Putin does, whether he in fact sends troops in 538 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:51,760 Speaker 1: you know, and again the question becomes, if he does, 539 00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,800 Speaker 1: how does the United States respond. Biden has said, we 540 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,960 Speaker 1: will not send troops in. UM. You know, we can 541 00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,720 Speaker 1: support in other ways. We you know, without being a 542 00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 1: member of NATO, there is no obligation on our part 543 00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 1: to do something like that. But those are very serious 544 00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,120 Speaker 1: questions and how far if he chooses to act. If 545 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 1: Putin does, does the United States go in response? And 546 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:16,000 Speaker 1: let's not forget of course you've got a European countries 547 00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 1: dependent on Russia for oil. So that is another big 548 00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,120 Speaker 1: challenge for this administration as they try to negotiate this 549 00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,720 Speaker 1: relationship with Putin. Does Vladimir Putin really want to test 550 00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,520 Speaker 1: the US militarily like like this, Rick? Or is this 551 00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:32,400 Speaker 1: simply a very aggressive way, I mean, moving hundred a 552 00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:34,800 Speaker 1: hundred thousand troops is something? Is this a very aggressive 553 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:39,400 Speaker 1: way of keeping NATO out? Sure? It threatening US? Uh 554 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 1: could actually make NATO more likely to come into the region. 555 00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,040 Speaker 1: Do you believe that? And? Uh? It could? Uh, certainly 556 00:33:46,080 --> 00:33:49,040 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians want it and and insomuch as we want 557 00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:52,320 Speaker 1: Ukraine to remain independent. Uh that what that is the 558 00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,280 Speaker 1: motivating factor. But that being said, I mean the Russians, 559 00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 1: I really don't think they that Vladimir Putin thinks he's 560 00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,240 Speaker 1: risking much because he's got to keep his military moving 561 00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,400 Speaker 1: all the time anyway, right, I mean, they they are 562 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,960 Speaker 1: prone to drunkenness and sloth and uh and and so 563 00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,239 Speaker 1: uh if he keeps them on the border, and he 564 00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,680 Speaker 1: keeps them moving around. This is good training for him. 565 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,319 Speaker 1: He's going to look at this and say, you know, 566 00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,440 Speaker 1: this shows my might. But more importantly, we are in 567 00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:20,000 Speaker 1: a world where the United States is going to get 568 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:25,239 Speaker 1: tested every single day by some authoritarian regime. Right, everybody 569 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:29,439 Speaker 1: who leads a country under authoritarian regime sees US as 570 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 1: the test of their medal. And and and the Chinese 571 00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 1: are watching this Russian test very closely because, as as 572 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:41,280 Speaker 1: we've talked about a lot on this show, their expectations 573 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 1: for consolidation of China with the you know, takeover of 574 00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:50,120 Speaker 1: Taiwan will be influenced at least influenced by our conduct 575 00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:52,920 Speaker 1: against Russia on the border of the Ukraine. And so 576 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,440 Speaker 1: this is a big global issue, not just one in 577 00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,440 Speaker 1: Eastern Europe. Can't separate these uh. I believe it was 578 00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:02,080 Speaker 1: Congressman McCall as a matter of fact, who was with 579 00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,240 Speaker 1: us a couple of weeks ago connecting the dots genie 580 00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:09,840 Speaker 1: between Afghanistan, Ukraine and Taiwan. Is the White House playing 581 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 1: that level of free d hs to keep up, they 582 00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,880 Speaker 1: have to be um and it's absolutely right to connect 583 00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:16,960 Speaker 1: to those dots. And and it really is to a 584 00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:20,520 Speaker 1: certain extent a no win situation for the Biden administration 585 00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,640 Speaker 1: here as as you look at these sort of moving 586 00:35:23,760 --> 00:35:26,839 Speaker 1: parts and moving targets, if you will, and how they 587 00:35:27,000 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 1: respond at each point as they are being pressured is 588 00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,959 Speaker 1: a challenge because of course, the Biden administration has said 589 00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 1: repeatedly and obviously gotten out of Afghanistan to make this 590 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,400 Speaker 1: point that we will not be sending our troops and 591 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:45,160 Speaker 1: what else then do we do? How do we respond? 592 00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:48,160 Speaker 1: You know, you look at just the issue of Ukraine 593 00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:52,240 Speaker 1: for instance, if we keep sending more arms into the Ukraine, 594 00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,839 Speaker 1: that's not going to be enough to deter Russia. So 595 00:35:54,880 --> 00:35:56,960 Speaker 1: what do you do next? And this is always the 596 00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,560 Speaker 1: problem that we're going to face when they set up 597 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,799 Speaker 1: front we won't be sending troops, in which most Americans 598 00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:04,640 Speaker 1: agree with. So they're between a rock and a hard 599 00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:08,240 Speaker 1: play here. Fascinating panel with Genie and Rick Bloomberg Politics 600 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,719 Speaker 1: contributors Jennie Chanceyo and Rick Davis. Thank you, as ever 601 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:14,000 Speaker 1: for the insights here on Bloomberg sound Off