1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to one Bill's Light, your numbers oriented discussion on 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: all things bills in the NFL. Coming up, the merits 3 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 1: of getting off to a fast dart in the regular season, 4 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: Steve is quizzed on fast dart history in the NFL 5 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: and the popularity of the two point conversion. Let's hit 6 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: the field at a Steve taster who has been all 7 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: over the fields. Kind of unique. He was kind of 8 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:35,960 Speaker 1: a dual role player for you, Steve, Steve a blimp. 9 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:43,279 Speaker 1: We're not even in the stratosphere of normalcy here, all right. 10 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to your latest numbers crunching session on 11 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:48,319 Speaker 1: the Bills in the NFL. Chris Brown and Bill's Wall 12 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: of Famer Steve Tasker here with you as always, and 13 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: with the NFL season now underway, with the NFL kickoff 14 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 1: game in the books, we address the subject of fast starts. Naturally, 15 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: every team wants to get off to a fast start. 16 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 1: The benefits are evident. But where do you come down, 17 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:08,080 Speaker 1: Steve on needing to start your season fast stacking up 18 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: wins in relation to finishing your season strong. Ideally you 19 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 1: want to do both, but does one have higher ranking 20 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: and importance than the other. It's you always equate fast 21 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: starts with wins, right, Yes, I think it goes deeper 22 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: than that. I think you start your season fast by 23 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 1: playing well, you can win. You can lose a close 24 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 1: game and still play well. You can. And I've seen 25 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,520 Speaker 1: other teams like, for instance, Joe Gibbs is famous for 26 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: saying one of the things in his early years with 27 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 1: the Redskins, when the Washington football team was the Redskins, 28 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 1: Joe Gibbs, they started their season oz and five, and 29 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: they were number one in offense and number one in defense. 30 00:01:48,280 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: No way, they weren't playing well, but they were getting 31 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: beat by bounce the ball that gap. Now, they obviously 32 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: went on to do great things, but that's the kind 33 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: of you got. You gotta step back and say, it's 34 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: not all about wins and lasses, although that's the best 35 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: measuring stick and usually the key to job security. Right. 36 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: You want to just play well and when you do that, 37 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 1: you're good. So it's not all about wins and losses. 38 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: But certainly that really helps you. It does, and that 39 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 1: thing that you reference about Joe Gibbs will give you 40 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: an indication as to where the NFC East used to be. 41 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 1: That's right, Yeah, not there right now. Yeah, I always 42 00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 1: you know, you hear it from coach. This is like 43 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 1: part of the coach speak lexicon, right, we want to 44 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 1: get off to a fast start, got to get off 45 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 1: to a fast start. Blah blah blah blah blah. It 46 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: helps set the tone for the season. I don't think 47 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 1: there's any question about that. But at the same time, 48 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 1: you also hear coaches say, well, the teams that are 49 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:45,080 Speaker 1: going to be there at the end, find their identity 50 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:47,480 Speaker 1: and hit their stride in November and December. You know, 51 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:49,839 Speaker 1: you always hear that all the time. So it's just like, well, 52 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: which one is more important? They're both important. You'd both 53 00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 1: you'd like to have both parts of the equation because 54 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 1: then that means you're winning a ton of football games. 55 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: I would like to look into the long term history 56 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:08,360 Speaker 1: of how often teams that don't get off to fast starts, 57 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 1: And then you have to say, well, what is a 58 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:12,119 Speaker 1: fast start? What isn't a fast is one and two 59 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: a slow start? Probably is two and three a slow start? 60 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:18,720 Speaker 1: I don't know, like where is the cutoff there? Do 61 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 1: you have to have a winning record? Like is three 62 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: and two an okay start but not a fast start? 63 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: I mean four and oh, three and one. These are 64 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: considered fast starts. What does it translate into is you 65 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 1: know the big question here? The Bills got off to 66 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: a four and o start last season. It was instrumental 67 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 1: in helping them tie the franchise mark for single season wins. 68 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: Only once in Sean McDermott's first four years as head 69 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 1: coach has the team been worse than three and one 70 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: in their first four games, which was the twenty eighteen season, 71 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: as we all know, which finished with them not appearing 72 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: in the playoffs. They're only non playoff berth season under McDermott. 73 00:03:57,040 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 1: But we've also seen an instance where this Bill's teams 74 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: started oh and three and bounced back to finish ten 75 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 1: and six and make the playoffs. That was in nineteen 76 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 1: ninety eight when Doug Flutey took over on offense. They 77 00:04:07,960 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 1: almost did it again in two thousand and four when 78 00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 1: they started oh and four and failed to cash in 79 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 1: on a winning in scenario in Week seventeen against the Steelers. 80 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: And those seem to be exceptions though when you think 81 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:22,960 Speaker 1: about history, and I don't know if this is the 82 00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 1: case for other NFL clubs, but in at least in 83 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:30,960 Speaker 1: Bill's history slow starts and having successful seasons seems to 84 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: be the exception rather than the rule. What do you 85 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 1: think of that Bill's history. Does that kind of reinforce like, hey, 86 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 1: you better win early if you want to have a 87 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: chance lated Well, it's better to be playing better late 88 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:44,719 Speaker 1: because that gives you a shot at at brass ring, 89 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: you know, yeah, at the at the super Bowl thing, 90 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 1: because you've got to be playing well to get in, 91 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 1: you know, to get deep into the playoffs. Stumbling at 92 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:56,920 Speaker 1: like the Pittsburgh Steelers did a year ago, starting out 93 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 1: eleven and oh yeah before they that's a fast start, 94 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: that's a very fast start. And then they stumbled to 95 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 1: the finish and then you know, one a game one 96 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 1: and done in the playoffs, and they didn't get they 97 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: had home field looked all like like they got home 98 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: field wrapped up, and then they didn't get that and 99 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: didn't win a game. So it's better to give for 100 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: Super Bowl aspirations to be playing well late. But a 101 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: team like last year's Bill's addition, they started out fast, 102 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 1: as you said, four and oz, and they finished that 103 00:05:27,200 --> 00:05:30,919 Speaker 1: dead sprint. They were hanging forty burgers on teams and 104 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 1: one nine of their last ten and one nine of 105 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 1: last ten and would have won like their last twelve 106 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 1: had they not yeah, given up a hail Murray. So 107 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 1: they were on fire last year, and they were they 108 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 1: were shifting gears and putting the pedal to the medal 109 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 1: even against inferior opponents. Even late in the season when 110 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: things were you know, they were winning games and they 111 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:55,480 Speaker 1: were they were big leads. They were still piloted on 112 00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: learning how to finish games. I thought that was huge. 113 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 1: But you can play yourself out of it early, but 114 00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 1: if you play yourself into it late sometimes that's a 115 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:07,760 Speaker 1: much better scenario, right, And the two thousand and four Bills, 116 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:09,640 Speaker 1: we thought we're going to be an example of that. 117 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 1: Just remembering that season. They start the season oh and four, 118 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 1: and I believe at the turn they were either two 119 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 1: and five, two three and five at the turn, and 120 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:26,719 Speaker 1: then one six straight down the stretch to the end 121 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:30,799 Speaker 1: of the season. They were nine and six going into 122 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 1: Week seventeen, having won six in a row, and it 123 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:36,920 Speaker 1: looked like they were gonna make it and it just 124 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 1: didn't happen. But we've seen teams catch fire late in 125 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 1: the season, qualify for a wild card and go all 126 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:45,280 Speaker 1: the way to the Super Bowl. I think the two 127 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: thousand Giants did that under Jim Fossil. They got they 128 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 1: got to like nine and seven or ten and six, 129 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,039 Speaker 1: got in, went all the way to the Super Bowl. 130 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:54,599 Speaker 1: They didn't win it, but they got all the way there. 131 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: I think the Raiders were the first wild card team 132 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: to ever win a Super Bowl, the seven or something. 133 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 1: So then the Giants did it twice with Eli Manning. 134 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 1: They got hot at the right at the end of 135 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:08,600 Speaker 1: the season. They kind of hung in there early on, 136 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: found where found their groove and rode you know, defensive 137 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 1: front four pass rush all the way to the Super Bowl. 138 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: Beat the eight, you know, sixteen or seventeen, eighteen and 139 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 1: oh no, nineteen and oh Patriots to send them nineteen 140 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: to one to lose the Super Bowl. Yeah, that was 141 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: a fast start and finish until the ultimate game for 142 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 1: the Rights. That's I don't mind sticking it to them. 143 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 1: We're going to provide some context here to fast starts 144 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 1: in this week's edition of The Numbers Game, as we 145 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 1: put Steve to the test. Over the last ten years, 146 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: seven NFL teams have a winning percentage of at least 147 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 1: six hundred or better through the season's first month, and 148 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: those seven teams have a combined forty four playoff berths 149 00:07:56,760 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 1: and ten super Bowl appearances. So Steve, I ask you, 150 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 1: can you name the seven teams that, over the last 151 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,800 Speaker 1: ten years have a winning percentage of at least six 152 00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: hundred or better through the season's first month. New England, 153 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: that's the easy one. Yep, New England Patriots is correct. 154 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 1: New Orleans, New Orleans is not on this list. Not 155 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: a fast star team. Apparently. Seattle. Seattle is on the list, yes, 156 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: twenty one and thirteen since twenty eleven. New England's twenty 157 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 1: six and nine. I will say Kansas City. Kansas City 158 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 1: is on there. Twenty three and eleven, seven playoff berths, 159 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: two super bowls, won super Bowl title. New England. Incidentally, 160 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: as we mentioned, twenty six and nine, nine playoff berths, 161 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 1: five super Bowls, three super Bowl victories. Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh is 162 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 1: not on this list. Seattle twenty one and thirteen. That 163 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: you guessed, eight playoff berths, two super Bowls, one super 164 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 1: Bowl victory. You're thinking about blue bloods over the last 165 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 1: ten years here and there are a couple of outliers. 166 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:25,319 Speaker 1: I will say Atlanta, Atlanta is not on this list. No, 167 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: I thought that was my outlier. Yeah, that was not 168 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 1: a bad guess, I'll say, m say Tampa Bay, Tampa 169 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: Bay is not on this verse. No, so you're looking 170 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:49,120 Speaker 1: between two thousand and eleven and twenty twenty Denver Fast 171 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,640 Speaker 1: Star teams. No, not on the list. Really, yeah, really, 172 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 1: I don't think Peyton was there long enough. Yeah, I 173 00:09:55,880 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 1: guess Minnesota. Minnesota is not on this list, Mollie, How 174 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 1: do I got? How I got? How many of I got? Left? Four? 175 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 1: You have four teams left? Correct? There are two in 176 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: the NFC Dallas, Dallas is one, Yes, twenty one and 177 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 1: thirteen Fast Start. There are two left in the AFC. 178 00:10:19,760 --> 00:10:23,599 Speaker 1: One in the NFC. Kind of a blue blood in 179 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 1: the NFC that you haven't guessed yet. Washington not Washington, Oh, 180 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 1: Philly not Philly. Wow, I told it that wins every year. 181 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 1: They've had a quarterback for a long time. Oh, Green Bay, 182 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,800 Speaker 1: Green Bay. There you go. Twenty four ten and one, 183 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:48,680 Speaker 1: eight playoff berths, no Super Bowl appearances, no Super Bowl. 184 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: Um all right, then the last I got like two 185 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 1: AFC teams. Two AFC teams one is a perennials. Yes, 186 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: there you go, twenty two and thirteen, and the last 187 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 1: one it's not Pittsburgh. No, this one's a bit of 188 00:11:03,679 --> 00:11:09,959 Speaker 1: a surprise, Buffalo. It is Buffalo. Twenty one and fourteen. 189 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:14,320 Speaker 1: Well done, Steve. Yeah, Sean McDermot era accounting for a 190 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:19,320 Speaker 1: large portion of those victories, having gone four and ozero 191 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,160 Speaker 1: three and one twice, and then I think twenty eighteen 192 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 1: they were one in three out of the gate. So yeah, 193 00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: twenty one and fourteen since two thou eleven the Bills 194 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:33,520 Speaker 1: in the first month of the season. Second part of 195 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,320 Speaker 1: our numbers game deals with going for two after a 196 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 1: touchdown and its increase in the popularity league wide. Steve 197 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:44,480 Speaker 1: teams attempted a total of one hundred thirty one two 198 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:49,199 Speaker 1: point conversions last season, the most since nineteen ninety four. 199 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 1: They also converted sixty three of them, second most in 200 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 1: league history. So I want to see if you can 201 00:11:56,280 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 1: guess the top three teams in successful two point conversions. 202 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:06,439 Speaker 1: We're looking for number of conversions, not conversion percentage. Let 203 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:09,079 Speaker 1: me see if you can just get the top goal teams. 204 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 1: I will say Baltimore. Baltimore is not on this list. Buffalo, No, 205 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 1: Kansas City. Kansas City is down on the list. They 206 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,319 Speaker 1: are not in the top three, I'll say, but they 207 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:26,520 Speaker 1: did have They were three of three last year. They 208 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 1: were successful on all of New Orleans. I mean New England, 209 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 1: not New England. No, who would go for a time. Now, 210 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 1: this doesn't always mean that it's a great Cleveland. Cleveland 211 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: is not on here. Jacksonville, Jacksonville is a lower on 212 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 1: the list. They're down there with Kansas City, not in 213 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: the top three that. I'll give you the numbers the 214 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 1: top three teams in terms of conversions. The number one 215 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 1: team had eight conversions out of twelve, the number two 216 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 1: team had seven conversions of sixteen, and then there are 217 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:04,199 Speaker 1: three teams tied with four conversions. I don't give you 218 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: any one of those three as the top three. Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, 219 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: they go for it a lot. I was surprised that 220 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: they weren't on the list because Tomlin almost goes for 221 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:19,079 Speaker 1: it every single time, going for two. Yeah, that was 222 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 1: a surprise absence from this list. The rams La nois 223 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: the top. San Francisco No. Three of the top five 224 00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 1: teams are NFC, and then there's two AFC teams that 225 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: are tied for third. So Seattle not Seattle, No. Arizona. Nope, 226 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 1: this is kind of an s o teric stat. It's 227 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:52,199 Speaker 1: not one like there's no pattern. There's no pattern. It's Carolina. 228 00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:55,920 Speaker 1: You're blind guessing. No, So I will give you divisions now, 229 00:13:56,320 --> 00:14:01,200 Speaker 1: all right. The top conversion team NFC North, second is 230 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:07,719 Speaker 1: NFC East. The Chicago Bears' is not the Bears, so 231 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,719 Speaker 1: all right, so now it's got to be Green Bay, 232 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:15,319 Speaker 1: no Ah, Yain and Minnesota. There you go. Minnesota led 233 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,319 Speaker 1: the league in two point conversions, eight out of twelve 234 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: for a conversion rate of sixty six point. Why did 235 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 1: they Probably because her trailing. All right, So that's that's one. 236 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: That's one. There is an NFC East club, two NFC 237 00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 1: East clubs. So you got a fifty fifty shot Billy 238 00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 1: Billy is yeah, seven of sixteen, and I will say 239 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 1: Washington for folklow it's Dallas four of six, and then 240 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 1: the other piece just given them to me. Well it's fine. 241 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: I was kind of a random number, but it was 242 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 1: interesting to see who was most successful in converting. Miami 243 00:14:48,920 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: and Tennessee tied with dallasly four of six, yeah, four 244 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: of six, four of seven, and then Indi was three 245 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 1: of five, Jacksonville three of nine, Kansas City three of three. 246 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 1: These are the only teams in the league that had 247 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: three successful two point conversions are more last year, dude, 248 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: wouldn't you expect the number of conversions to be higher 249 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: than that? Well, they're telling us like, oh, they've gone 250 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: for two more than it's less than half. Yeah, and 251 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:17,320 Speaker 1: there's only and there's like less than one, less like 252 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 1: one every two games. They go for on average one 253 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 1: every two games. Teams will go for it somewhere and 254 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: less than half of those are converted. And I apologize 255 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,000 Speaker 1: for not having the Bills numbers handy, but I'll try 256 00:15:32,040 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: to look those up and get them to people either 257 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 1: out on Twitter or something in the future. Here, all right, 258 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: good job on the numbers game this week. We close 259 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: out this week's episode with a segment we like to 260 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: call these Three Things. This week, as the season is 261 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: now underway, we offer three trends to watch in twenty 262 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: twenty one. And while we don't want to fast forward 263 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 1: through the season too much, knowing we expect the Bills 264 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: to be a playoff team, Steve, these three trends all 265 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 1: deal with recent playoff history. Tampa Bay Number one. Tampa 266 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:05,920 Speaker 1: Bay will look to be the first team since Tom 267 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: Brady's Patriots back in two thousand and three two thousand 268 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 1: and four to win back to back Super Bowls. We 269 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 1: are currently in the longest drought without a repeat champion 270 00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl era. What do we make of 271 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,960 Speaker 1: the lack of back to back NFL champion for the 272 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: past seventeen years. I think it's a ton of reasons. 273 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: When you got thirty one other teams that are trying 274 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: to beat you, for one thing, it's hard to win. 275 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 1: It's hard to win. It's hard to keep your roster 276 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: together and not and if you do keep your roster together, 277 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: like Tampa Bay does this year, you got's hard to say, 278 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: stay healthy, and it's hard to have those guys show 279 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 1: up hungry again. One of the one of the reasons 280 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 1: that the team that I was able to go to 281 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:47,960 Speaker 1: fourth straight was because we didn't win it, right, So 282 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 1: you always had that thing out there that you're really 283 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: trying to get. Once you get there, well, what do 284 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:58,000 Speaker 1: you do? Yeah, that's hard. It's kind of like I've 285 00:16:58,000 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 1: been there, done that thing. And now if you've been 286 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:01,840 Speaker 1: there and not done that, it's like, oh, I want 287 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,480 Speaker 1: to get back. Yeah, do I really want to I 288 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: really want to, you know, get shot up to get 289 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,119 Speaker 1: win another one, you know when already got one. That's hard. 290 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,439 Speaker 1: You know, it's hard to put yourself through that, the 291 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:16,199 Speaker 1: physical torment and the you know, physical suffering that you 292 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 1: got to put yourself through because nobody else can. Yeah, yeah, 293 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: it's hard. I think that's the easy answer. It's freaking 294 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 1: hard to do it in this league. It's not only 295 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 1: because of the reasons you mentioned, but nowadays, in the 296 00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: free agency era, where the turnover is unprecedented, compared to 297 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 1: what it was, coordinate your teams. Yeah, compared to what 298 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:38,680 Speaker 1: it was when your teams were playing you get poished. 299 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 1: You were able to kind of keep most of that 300 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 1: core together. What's the number twenty two players played in 301 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 1: all four super There's no way in hell any team 302 00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 1: today would be able to say that with the transient 303 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: nature of player talent in this league. So I think 304 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 1: that's one of the main reasons why it's hard too. 305 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:55,919 Speaker 1: And I think it's one of the main reasons. You 306 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 1: saw Tampa Bay try to bring everybody back. You saw 307 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:02,160 Speaker 1: the Bills resegning their offensive linemen to get them back 308 00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: in the fold. I mean, it's not universal, but teams 309 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 1: try to strive for that continuity if they feel they 310 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 1: have a championship caliber group together. Look at the teams, 311 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: I mean, it's hard to do it when you've got 312 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:17,440 Speaker 1: when your neck deep in town. Look at Cleveland, they're loaded. 313 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 1: Look at Kansas City, Yeah, they're They've got maybe one 314 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 1: of the all time great runs of all time going here, 315 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,440 Speaker 1: and they can't, you know, they revamp their offensive. Yeah, 316 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,640 Speaker 1: it's completely different. It's it's hard to do. There's so 317 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 1: many moving parts on a football team in the NFL, 318 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,959 Speaker 1: from top to bottom, and all those moving parts, and 319 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,200 Speaker 1: not only those moving parts, but the moving parts on 320 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 1: the other team got to fall your way, you know, 321 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:44,760 Speaker 1: when you're in a game. Did in the Super Bowl 322 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:46,600 Speaker 1: for the Bucks, they got to play the Chiefs without 323 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 1: their two offensive tackles tackles I mean, come on, yeah, 324 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,240 Speaker 1: it's Speaking of the Chiefs, It's not all bad news 325 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,359 Speaker 1: for them as a Super Bowl loser, as just three 326 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,359 Speaker 1: of the previous twelve Super Bowl losers have missed the 327 00:18:58,400 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 1: postseason the following year, but it's happened three of the 328 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:06,639 Speaker 1: last five seasons, including in back to back years the 329 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen Panthers and then the twenty nineteen Rams and 330 00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:12,680 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty forty nine Ers all missed the playoffs 331 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 1: the following year after a Super Bowl appearance. We've seen 332 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 1: what can happen to teams the year after a Super 333 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,239 Speaker 1: Bowl appearance. Injuries bit the Niners last year, as we 334 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: saw the year before that. The Rams go seven to 335 00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 1: nine and don't make the playoffs either. Do we think 336 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:29,399 Speaker 1: there's a chance the Chiefs don't make the playoffs in 337 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, Well, there's always the chance. How likely 338 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:37,359 Speaker 1: is it? All it takes as an injury of the 339 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: wrong guy. Well, right, you lose Travis Kelcey or you'll 340 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 1: lose Tyree Hill Mahomes. Yeah, I mean Mahomes was limping 341 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 1: around last year. You know it gets so bad that 342 00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 1: he can't play for a game one and done. You 343 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:51,960 Speaker 1: know that's the way it is. So yeah, you can 344 00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,320 Speaker 1: see it happening because of the injury element that there 345 00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: is in football that you don't really foresee in other sports. 346 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 1: But it can also be team just lights fire, like 347 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 1: back in two thousand, I think sixteen or seventeen, when 348 00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 1: the when the pant when the Jaguars got hot, they 349 00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,640 Speaker 1: come in they beat the twenty seventeen, after the two 350 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 1: thousand and seventeen season, they come in, they beat the 351 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 1: Bills in the wild card round. They go to Pittsburgh 352 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:21,719 Speaker 1: and hang forty plus points on Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh, they 353 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:25,639 Speaker 1: just caught. You just don't see that that can have. 354 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: You run into a team like that. Ravens did it 355 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,640 Speaker 1: with Flacco a few years ago. Giants did it with 356 00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:33,479 Speaker 1: with Eli and that pass rush a couple of times. 357 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: So you run into a team that all of a 358 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:41,520 Speaker 1: sudden is playing with such confidence and such emotion. You 359 00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: just can't beat them. You can't play well enough to 360 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: beat them that day. And that's you know, so it 361 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:49,240 Speaker 1: could happen. Yes, Yeah, I think here's the thing to 362 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,359 Speaker 1: keep them out of the playoffs completely. Yeah, that's different 363 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 1: than beating them in the playoffs, And that's kind of 364 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: what I'm talking about. So getting them out of the 365 00:20:57,119 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 1: playoffs completely, Man, I don't know, it's highly unlikely. Think 366 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 1: I think it's highly unlikely. The coaching staff is aces. 367 00:21:04,640 --> 00:21:07,520 Speaker 1: They got, you know, probably a best quarterback on the planet. 368 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 1: But as you said, injuries can very quickly change the conversation. 369 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 1: As we saw, the forty nine ers were a shell 370 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: of themselves from twenty nineteen in twenty twenty due to 371 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 1: all the injuries that they racked up very quickly. I 372 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 1: mean Week two they lose Bosa and Solomon Thomas in 373 00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: the same game to season ending injuries. I mean it 374 00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:33,719 Speaker 1: was catastrophic. Yeah, that can happen. You don't know. You 375 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:35,679 Speaker 1: can overcome that, but you're not gonna do it like 376 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 1: the next week. You know, it takes you. We like 377 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:40,120 Speaker 1: think about it. That's what happened to the Bills when 378 00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 1: Milana was gone for like eight weeks or five weeks 379 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 1: or whatever it was. You stick somebody in there to 380 00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 1: take his place, and then he's not gonna be there. 381 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 1: So you've you've got to change your defense for the 382 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,200 Speaker 1: guy that's gonna play all the time, and that takes time, 383 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 1: and the other guys around him have to get used 384 00:21:55,840 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 1: to j Klein, right, So you know you can overcome it, 385 00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:04,200 Speaker 1: but man, oh man, it takes takes a while. Yeah. 386 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,920 Speaker 1: Number three. Since the nineteen ninety six season, at least 387 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:12,640 Speaker 1: one team that played on Championship Sunday has missed the 388 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:16,239 Speaker 1: playoffs the following year. Last year, as we know, it 389 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: was the forty nine Ers Chiefs Bills, Bucks, Packers all 390 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 1: played on Championship Sunday in twenty twenty. Are you biting 391 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 1: your nails yet? How much does this recent conference championship 392 00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 1: game history concern you? With respect to those four clubs 393 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,159 Speaker 1: going into this season? Does one of them miss the 394 00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: conference title game? I guess probably right, probably, yeah, probably 395 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 1: one of missus the whole terms is the conference championship? 396 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: They don't. Yeah, they'll come back. Oh no, no, I'm sorry, 397 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 1: miss the playoffs, missed the playoffs entire. If I'm if, 398 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:53,320 Speaker 1: I'm if it's me and I'm calling one of them, 399 00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 1: I'm calling probably Green Bay. Yeah. I was kind of 400 00:22:56,840 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 1: leaning that way. Also. I don't know why, just because, 401 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,159 Speaker 1: but I would say hinges on the guy. You know, 402 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,679 Speaker 1: certainly it hinges on that for Kansas City and the 403 00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 1: Bucks and everybody. You know. But if you know, I 404 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:15,400 Speaker 1: don't know that the chemistry is there anymore for Aaron Rodgers, 405 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,400 Speaker 1: I don't know that it's given what happened to them 406 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 1: this offseason. There have been reports that things have been 407 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 1: smoothed over there a winning win, When you win games, 408 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,880 Speaker 1: everything gets smoothed over. Right. You decide you can live 409 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 1: with just about any situation and not only that, I 410 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,720 Speaker 1: don't think the other teams in their division have closed 411 00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: the gap enough to say they're not going to be 412 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,000 Speaker 1: the division champion, so how do you kind of keep 413 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 1: them out of And the same thing with the NFC South, 414 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 1: Like the Saints have taken a step back, Carolina has 415 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:50,840 Speaker 1: incrementally improved. Atlanta are they better than they were last year? 416 00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,480 Speaker 1: I don't know. Maybe a little, but new coach. So 417 00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: you see the Bucks win in that division, they're making 418 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 1: the playoffs. The Chiefs, all right, maybe the Chargers close 419 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 1: the gap a little bit with Herbert, but enough to 420 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:05,440 Speaker 1: unseat them. I don't know. Yeah, I don't know if 421 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 1: one of these conference championship teams are going to be 422 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,440 Speaker 1: out of the playoffs this year. I think all four, 423 00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:12,919 Speaker 1: in all likelihood make it. Unless we see the injury 424 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 1: ravaged roster situation that we saw with the forty nine 425 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 1: ers last year. I don't see how it changes. And 426 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 1: that's that's a different way you can say it. And 427 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: then it just becomes an anomalous it's all about happens 428 00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: to Yeah, it's it's not a trend. Yeah, those are 429 00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 1: these three things, and that'll do it for this week's edition. 430 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 1: Of One Bill's Light Your numbers intensive coverage of the 431 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 1: bills in the NFL. Be sure to subscribe so you 432 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,840 Speaker 1: know every time a new episode is available for your 433 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 1: listening pleasure. And remember, when there isn't enough time for 434 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 1: One Bills Live, there is always enough time for One 435 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,840 Speaker 1: Bill's Light. For Steve Tasker, I'm Chris Brown. Thanks for 436 00:24:47,000 --> 00:25:00,760 Speaker 1: joining us. We'll catch you next week. Everybody the incidents 437 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: later