WEBVTT - Reeves' Heathrow-Fueled Growth Plan, DeepSeek and the Effect on US Big Tech, and Mini-Bubbles are Bubblin' 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:20.959 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to the Merin 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:23.600 Trugs Money Weekly round Up, our debrief on the biggest 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:26.880 stories in markets and economics. I'm Merin Zumzet, Web Editor 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:28.800 at Large for Bloomberg UK Wealth. 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:32.040 And I'm joint therapey, author of the Money Distilled newsletter 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:33.680 and senior reporter for Bloomberg. 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:37.559 Excellent, John, your Scottish? 0:00:37.720 --> 0:00:39.760 Yes, can you tell? 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:42.680 And you said to me the other day that I 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:44.440 was the token Scott in the run, but kind of 0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:44.760 I'm not. 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:46.599 You're You're the actual Scott in the run. 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:50.479 So you will have noticed that a court has just 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:52.960 ruled that the consent for two new Scottish oil and 0:00:53.000 --> 0:00:57.040 gasfield has been granted unlawfully and their owners must seek 0:00:57.160 --> 0:01:01.080 fresh approval from the UK government before product you can begin. 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:03.200 And I thought I would just mention that because we're 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:05.080 going to talk about a couple of things today, and 0:01:05.120 --> 0:01:07.119 the first thing we're going to talk about is Rachel 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:10.360 Reeves and her drive for growth, because it is her mission, her. 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:10.920 Drive for growth. 0:01:11.000 --> 0:01:13.080 And then we're going to talk about deep seek and 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:15.760 the US dot market and AI a little bit. But 0:01:15.800 --> 0:01:18.720 I just thought a fabulous introduction to talking about who 0:01:18.720 --> 0:01:21.560 we now call poor Rachel Reeves is this fact that 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:26.600 every way a government turns, there's a court there, often 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:29.760 with Greenpeace behind it, say actually, no, you can't. 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:32.200 And do you remember poor Rachel? Last week she said? 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:35.919 The answer can't always be no. She said that Davil 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:39.520 didn't she Well, you know what, Rachel, The answer always 0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:40.720 is no. 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:43.480 What's she going to do about it? What is she 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:44.600 going to do about it? John? 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:48.480 Normally I would feel that it's not necessarily a good 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:51.000 thing you have a lawyer as a prime minister. But 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:53.360 I'm starting to feel that maybe that is the kind 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:56.440 of wine great sport about Kirstana's being the prime minister. 0:01:56.640 --> 0:02:01.200 It's like the level of I mean, people call it 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:05.640 judicial activism, and I get that. But the only reason 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:07.680 that this stuff can happen is because a politician passed 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:09.760 a lot at some point in the past that Noney 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:13.720 has quite noticed the repercussions of at the time. So 0:02:13.960 --> 0:02:16.600 we need, we do need to do something about this. 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:20.919 It shouldn't really be up to a small pressure group 0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:27.800 bringing i mean quite a fringe kind of case that 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:32.000 can then shut down something that the democratically elected government 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:36.760 has already approved. This isn't okay. Actually the course of 0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:39.280 going too far. There's a lot of examples of this 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:42.640 sort of stuff and it needs to stop. Unfortunately, I'm 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:46.040 not a lawyer, nor a politician, not someone who is 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:47.960 deeping the weeds on this stuff, so I don't know 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:51.000 how this has come about, but we need to get idiot. 0:02:52.040 --> 0:02:56.280 It just needs to end because it's not acceptable we 0:02:56.360 --> 0:02:59.679 have this kind of thing continuously stopping is from getting in. 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:01.000 It's absurd. 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:03.440 And when you look at the I'm just going to 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:06.400 say before we start here, hate mail directly to John 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:09.000 not me, right, because he's Scottish, so probably he was 0:03:09.040 --> 0:03:11.000 the one who wanted these oil fields in the first place. 0:03:11.120 --> 0:03:13.359 Not me totally, but yes. 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:15.359 But the case is we talked about Aberdeen last week, 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:18.440 didn't we. But the cases were bought by two environmental 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:21.200 campaigning groups, and Greenpeace obviously and another one called Uplift. 0:03:21.200 --> 0:03:23.000 And I haven't done this yet, but I'm pretty sure 0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:25.680 that if we check where the cash that goes to 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:28.120 Uplift and Greenpeace comes from, we'll find that quite a 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:30.360 lot of it comes one way or another via our 0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:31.560 tax contributions. 0:03:31.639 --> 0:03:34.040 So we are caught in this ridiculous situation. 0:03:34.120 --> 0:03:37.520 By time after time after time you find the government 0:03:37.880 --> 0:03:42.440 thoughted by government taxpayer financed organizations, and this. 0:03:42.440 --> 0:03:43.119 Is what we have here. 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:46.120 So we're a fifty seven page judgment where the judge 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:48.960 said there's a public interest in having the decision remade 0:03:49.040 --> 0:03:52.400 on a lawful basis because of the effects of climate change, 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:56.320 which you said outweighed the interests of developers. Of course, 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:58.480 you know, maybe something like this, the Rosemanck oilfield and 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:00.960 the jack Door gasfield. Rose is a bit north of 0:04:00.960 --> 0:04:04.280 Shetland and Jackdaw is a bit too, the east of Aberdeen. 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:06.800 I would say this isn't just about the interest of 0:04:06.800 --> 0:04:10.480 the developers. It's about the interests of the ordinary, ordinary 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:13.560 population of the UK and their living standards. But hey, 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:16.680 that's just me. Anyway, onto Rachel Rage and all the 0:04:16.720 --> 0:04:18.279 other things that she isn't going to be able to 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:18.720 get done. 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:21.000 There's the Heathrow runway, right, yeah. 0:04:21.080 --> 0:04:23.239 I mean if she can't get a couple of oil 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:26.680 fields opened, then I do wonder. I mean, Rachel Reaves 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:29.520 was actually on Bloomberg Telly and she said that she 0:04:29.640 --> 0:04:31.600 wants speeds to be in the ground by the end 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:34.960 of this parliament and I mean, the normal circumstances tell 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:36.719 me that you're going to start on an extension in 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:38.599 four years time would seem like a long time, but 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:42.840 that seems miraculously fast for you know, an extra kind 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:45.640 of runway that's already been delayed by you know, countless 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:48.640 times over various legal challenges, and you know, and obviously 0:04:48.720 --> 0:04:51.200 you've already got side Can saying that he's definitely going 0:04:51.200 --> 0:04:54.120 to take it to court. So I am going to 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:55.600 be interested to see how this happens. 0:04:55.640 --> 0:04:58.120 He's going to take it to court. He's going to 0:04:58.200 --> 0:04:59.840 take it to court, and he's going to. 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:03.280 Use climate change legislation net zero all that stuff, and 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:05.279 he's going to have green Place and Uplift with him. 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:08.360 And once again, this is how low fair is used 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:11.040 in the UK to for the government. 0:05:11.560 --> 0:05:14.000 Well, I mean, let's say one thing that I am 0:05:14.120 --> 0:05:17.120 interested in, and you know, obviously made an awful lot 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:19.760 of criticisms of the government and the decisions that it's made, 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:24.040 but I am curious to see if someone who is 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:28.920 as presumably versed in law fare and this way of 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:32.719 doing things as Kirstarmer presumably is, has got a way 0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:35.680 to counteract it. Now that he's the one that's you know, 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:40.680 taking the flag from it. I am hoping that if 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:43.880 nothing else comes about, we will see a pushback against 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:47.840 this basically governance via the courts. But you're right the 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:50.440 other thing and also also getting ready gift aid, gift 0:05:50.520 --> 0:05:53.000 aid needs to stop, you know. 0:05:53.000 --> 0:05:55.560 All of this kind of get rid of gifted. 0:05:55.440 --> 0:05:59.200 Garridy, gifted. You've been saying it for the ages. You know, anything, 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:05.440 any any grant to any charity should be much more transpardoned. 0:06:05.440 --> 0:06:06.960 I mean, in an idea world, I would say, don't 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:09.560 give any tax payer money to charities at. 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:12.240 All, or whether every single. 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:15.520 Team is hinded it in fifty were saying that the 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:17.719 population nice to be for it or something like that, 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:19.479 because this is just going beyond their jok. 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:22.520 No grants to charities of any kind out of taxpayer money. 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:25.680 The government should do what the government should do. And 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:28.880 charities are outside the government, and I'm not sure that 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:32.640 any of them, any of them be it squirrels or greenpeace, 0:06:32.640 --> 0:06:36.039 and should be financed by government, by taxpayer. The government 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:38.560 should you know, for phillip democratic mandate, which is to 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:40.839 do what the population wants, not to give money to 0:06:40.920 --> 0:06:43.200 organizations that are doing things that the population might not 0:06:43.240 --> 0:06:46.800 necessarily want, which brings me very neatly to something that 0:06:46.839 --> 0:06:49.599 I've been looking at this week. We haven't really finished 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:51.640 on growth. We'll come back to growth. But this is connected. 0:06:52.880 --> 0:06:54.640 Over half of gen Z. 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:57.000 I can never remember which gens which, but let's say 0:06:57.040 --> 0:07:00.080 young people, over half of gen Z wants to the 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:03.200 UK to become a dictatorship. Now, why do they want 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:05.320 the UK to become a dictatorship. There's all sorts of 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:07.359 theories out there, but I can't answer that for you. 0:07:07.400 --> 0:07:10.240 It's because they would like to see something, just something, anything, 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:12.240 get done. 0:07:12.840 --> 0:07:13.480 They see the. 0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:16.640 Electorate going out them voting again and again and again. 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:20.320 Build stuff, do stuff, make a smaller state, have lower taxes, 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:23.480 reduce immigration, whatever it is people vote for over and over. 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:28.320 These things never happen. Nothing anybody votes for ever happens. 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:30.520 So they think to themselves, well, if anything's ever going 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:32.720 to get done, maybe we should just have a dictator. 0:07:32.840 --> 0:07:34.240 Hey, maybe the stuff that gets. 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:37.000 Done won't be what we want, but something will happen. 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:38.600 I mean, do you think that's it. 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:41.640 I mean, there's probably an element of them wanting a 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:47.640 better drama in the lives. Yeah, I mean, obviously we 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:50.480 all of these, said SVIs, I'd take me a massive 0:07:50.520 --> 0:07:54.680 pinch of salt, because I don't I don't think the 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:57.200 more I mean generations said, this is the generation that's 0:07:57.240 --> 0:08:00.760 actually older than old kids, but younger than the millennials. 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:02.040 So I know, twenties. 0:08:02.120 --> 0:08:04.000 Oh, they're really difficult ones, aren't they. 0:08:04.600 --> 0:08:09.880 Yeah, they're kind of like they are kind of yeah, 0:08:10.000 --> 0:08:11.800 I mean the other interesting things. I mean, you know, 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:16.200 maybe maybe it's just not true, but people say about 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:19.600 young people getting more being more left wing, they're just 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:20.800 want the opposite of what they've got. 0:08:20.840 --> 0:08:24.000 Now, well, it depends what they want to communist dictator 0:08:24.080 --> 0:08:26.160 or right wing to dictator. I mean, no one said them, 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:29.320 No one said, did they want a fascist or a communist? 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:31.040 I mean, they didn't get the right choices, I guess. 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:33.280 So we don't know whether they're extreme left or extreme right, 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:35.640 or if they yet know that extreme left and extreme 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:36.480 right are the same thing. 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:39.200 Maybe they don't know that yet. The young they may not. 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:41.440 And also, I don't know, they've got a lot I'm 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:44.839 not sure that they I'm not sure left and right 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:49.720 make a lot of sense anymore. I think I think 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:51.960 whenever I think about all of the things that are 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:54.920 going on. You can basically split any people who are 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:59.160 still pro something resembling progress and that kind of and 0:08:59.200 --> 0:09:01.920 that kind of degrow with anti growth nihilism on the 0:09:01.960 --> 0:09:05.400 other side. And did those two things, And I think 0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:09.840 that then makes a little bit more sense of the 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:14.160 voting for a dictatorship element, because that's quite a nihilistic 0:09:14.240 --> 0:09:16.520 way look at things on nihilistic and I'm never prety 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:20.440 sure you pronounced that. So I think that that then 0:09:20.520 --> 0:09:23.560 makes more sense than them thinking about I don't think 0:09:23.600 --> 0:09:26.800 they're thinking, you know, a woint, a stylin or a woint. 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:32.120 They're thinking, A want somebody who's going to set my 0:09:32.480 --> 0:09:35.040 enemies whoever they are straight, if you know what I mean, 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:37.640 I mean they want a dictators on their said, yeah, I. 0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:39.920 Suspect it's more it's more about or it's a lot 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:43.120 about the absolute lack of growth over the last couple 0:09:43.160 --> 0:09:45.199 of decades. So you have an entire generation here that 0:09:45.280 --> 0:09:50.199 they've never really experienced the growth, the innovation, the creativity, etcetera. 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:52.719 That leads to sustained economic growth that you and I 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:54.240 saw when we were young. 0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:56.600 So we maybe have more of a growth. 0:09:56.320 --> 0:09:58.760 Mindset, as they now say in the school's growth mindset, 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:02.600 and I that growth is the default that it's possible, 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:04.719 that it should be, that things should be improving. 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:05.520 And getting better all the time. 0:10:05.600 --> 0:10:09.240 And therefore the idea that wealth should constantly be redistributed 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:13.160 isn't necessary because the pie is growing. Whereas if you 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:17.319 are perhaps generations, that your default belief, which is entirely reasonable, 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:21.080 is that the pie isn't growing, and crucially that, particularly 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:23.760 with poor Rachel in charge, it isn't going to grow. 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:25.720 So what you need is a. 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:29.720 More extreme level of redistribution than democracy will allow. So 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:33.240 if you don't get growth, and you don't get living 0:10:33.240 --> 0:10:36.480 standards growing, again, what is it that you would expect 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:38.240 except for maybe this? 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:42.720 Yeah, I mean that's yeah, that's really true. And I 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:45.080 do forget that we grew up in the nineties and 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:49.000 the nineties were very much everything did to keep getting 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:51.679 up particuli at your political level. 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:56.360 We had great jobs, we could have you know, we 0:10:56.360 --> 0:10:58.560 were educated for free, We had great jobs, we could 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:01.600 afford houses. You know, we have children, we had them 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:03.440 at a reasonable age, et cetera, et cetera. A lot 0:11:03.480 --> 0:11:05.800 of the things that people stuck in a no growth 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:09.400 mindset and a no growth assumption find very hard to 0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:11.440 think that they will ever have, So I totally understand this, 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:13.559 But I've gone off topic again. This is not that 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:17.920 kind of podcast. So let's I think we've talked quite 0:11:17.960 --> 0:11:20.280 a lot in the past on this podcast about what 0:11:20.480 --> 0:11:24.800 Rachel Reeves could do to allow growth rather than to 0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:28.120 pretend that she can create growth. So I would suggest 0:11:28.200 --> 0:11:30.679 anyone who wants to hear a little more about that 0:11:30.720 --> 0:11:32.920 goes back to the podcast that we did with Simon French, 0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:37.400 which was excellent on all that, the main thing being that. 0:11:37.440 --> 0:11:39.400 If Rachel really believes that growth. 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:41.600 Is a fight, she's fighting the wrong thing. You know, 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:43.360 she doesn't need to fight. She needs to get out 0:11:43.360 --> 0:11:45.920 of the way. Less fighting, less fighting, and less of 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:48.040 course you are fighting the course, which he's going to 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:51.840 be doing for a while. Onto something, John, Onto something 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:53.760 that you've written about a lot this week and which 0:11:53.800 --> 0:11:56.240 we already released what we don't call an emergency podcast 0:11:56.320 --> 0:12:01.680 but we call an early podcast on Tuesday. AI Deep 0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:06.920 Seek and the effect on the US technology sector. Are 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:11.880 you in the camp that says deep Seek It's great. 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.960 Everything just goes better for US tech as a result 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:16.440 of Deep Seek, and we should all buy more and 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:20.480 more in video or are you in the camp that says, oh, look, 0:12:21.160 --> 0:12:24.560 China one, this stuff can be done cheaply and easily 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:27.280 with low energy. Therefore, no one wants to own a 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.080 video chips anymore. It's all over for them, and it's 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:32.880 all over everyone who's spent billions and billions and billions 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.360 on building or attempting to build an AI infrastructure that 0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:37.400 doesn't look like it's already needed. Oh, and could buy 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.120 nuclear energy at the same time. Oh, you could be 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:41.920 somewhere in the middle. I guess, But those are the 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:43.000 two camps, right. 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:47.480 Don't think I mean I that camp, and I think 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:50.760 the only count I'm actually in is more that this 0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:57.760 has remainded people, That unexpected stuff throws spinals in the 0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:01.440 walks all the team and the one the mental problem 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:04.880 here has been the AI bubble. I feel like, let's 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:09.600 call it the AI bubble has been massively overinflated. So 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:14.880 stocks are very overvalued compared to anything but the most 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:19.400 perfect event unfolding. And the one thing that Deepseek shows 0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:22.160 is that you don't know the future paths. You can't 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:24.080 assume that it's going to be perfect, and you can't 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:25.560 assume that in the video is going to be the 0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:31.079 only contender for the rest of eternity, and therefore probably 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:33.680 there should be a little more room for uncertainty in 0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:35.720 the price, which means that the current price, or the 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:38.200 price you know, a couple of days ago, was probably 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:40.400 not the right price. And I think that's about the 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:44.559 only useful thing that especially, I mean anno specialist like me, 0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:47.040 but even you know, the specialists unfortunate. If you're a 0:13:47.040 --> 0:13:49.640 non specialist, you don't know the details we are talking about. 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:51.959 But if you're a specialist, you're two way far too 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.000 into the details to be able to give a decent 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:56.760 big picture look. So I think that, yeah, I mean, 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:58.960 I think that's it. I think all we knew before, 0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:02.600 for almost sure, was that these thoughts were overvalued. And 0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:05.520 this is a remainder why they were overvalues, because they 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:10.160 were placing and perfection rather than anything else. 0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:12.920 My takes would be that one exactly never pay for 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:15.280 perfect because you're never going to get perfect. And you know, 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:18.080 the dynamic of of all of history is that some 0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:22.280 technology that looks expensive and difficult is always disrupted by 0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:24.040 someone who can do it at a fraction of the cost, 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:27.560 where a fraction of the effort happens every single time. 0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:29.920 That would be my first takeaway. The second one would 0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:31.920 be the weirdness of I don't know when when you 0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:33.960 and I were reading all the stuff about Davos, where 0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:35.960 we weren't by the way, you know, a lot of 0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:39.720 the talk at Davos was about deep seek, right, this 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:43.160 was new information. It had been out there before, but 0:14:43.280 --> 0:14:47.520 it only hit the stock market on Monday. That was 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:50.360 really interesting because everyone's at worst talking about how there 0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:52.680 you know, the market gets hold of information before anybody 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:54.600 else and it's a perfect waging machine. 0:14:54.320 --> 0:14:55.000 E cetera, et cetera. 0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:59.960 But actually it was a long time in market terms 0:15:00.320 --> 0:15:02.920 for the information about deep seek and what it could 0:15:02.920 --> 0:15:05.080 do and how it had been trained to do it 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:09.560 to move from DeVos chatter to the market. Information doesn't 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.960 matter until suddenly it really mattered. That's also I thought 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:20.720 very interesting. Yeah, that from the non expert point of view, 0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:26.480 cheap AI might not be good for big tech, and 0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:28.600 might not be good for anyone who's just promised to 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:32.640 check one hundred billion into Donald Trump's AI infrastructure ideas. 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:36.080 Maybe not good for that, but really good surely for 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:39.440 productivity across the board, which brings us back to poor 0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:43.920 Rachel Reeves and her desperation to create growth. But she 0:15:44.000 --> 0:15:46.360 might not necessarily have to do that. But she can't 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:48.360 do that, but she might be able to step back 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:50.560 and just say, well, hang on, if cheap AI is 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:52.840 out there and it's going to make its way round 0:15:52.920 --> 0:15:55.720 the economy without her having to do anything, that could 0:15:55.760 --> 0:16:00.320 be conceivably a huge cheap productivity boat boost will give 0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:02.240 us growth anyway, not just here but in the US 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:04.120 of course as well. And then we have the classic 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:07.720 situation where you have a bubble, massive capex bubble. You 0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:10.280 have the creation of the technology of some kind or another. 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.920 You have a product productivity boom, but we don't actually 0:16:13.960 --> 0:16:17.200 see any profitability to the big companies. You may have 0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:19.800 developed the technology in the first place for a good decade, 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:22.640 like well, like the Internet, like railways, all. 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:23.080 This kind of thing. 0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:25.960 I'm amusing myself at the moment looking at mini bubbles, 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:28.920 and you know, the AI bubble fits perfectly into the 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:32.400 dynamic of a mini bubble right above a sector bubble 0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:33.480 inside a market. 0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:37.120 Yeah, no, I mean's this it's one of those. It's 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:40.320 like a productive bubble. So like the entern they ultimately 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.360 boys our productive bubble and the minute boss that I 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:47.600 actually didn't cause that much damage. It's only when you've 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:52.480 get stuff like properly that you've got a real problem. 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:54.760 But you know, I mean, the the I thing I 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:57.320 do find fascinating then you know, I mean, obviously if 0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:00.680 they've found the way they do chat GP, but like 0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:03.360 you know, one hundredfold cheaper, it's then that's that's great. 0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:07.359 That's like, you know, that's fantastic. It's very hard to 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:11.400 say that's a bad thing. My going back to Rachel 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:14.879 Reeves and growth. The one issue that I have and 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:17.000 just to be clear, I'm not an AI skeptic. I 0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:21.800 can see that it's useful for stuff, but the sorts 0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:25.919 of things that it would be really useful for, like 0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:32.560 the kind of you know, AI and medicine, AI and law. 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:36.040 I can see that sort of stuff being kind of 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:39.520 held up by you know, the guilds, if you like, 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:45.000 in those areas the human element rather than the technological element. 0:17:45.760 --> 0:17:49.359 And I think that is again that's sort of is 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:51.719 a little bit like what we've been talking about earlier. 0:17:51.800 --> 0:17:54.200 We you know, the kind of battle against the courts 0:17:54.200 --> 0:17:57.080 to actually get anything done. It's not that we can't 0:17:57.200 --> 0:17:59.520 do any of this stuff. Is that if you like, 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:02.040 the kind of social structures around them are stopping is 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:05.919 you know, it's highly qualified lawyers and highly qualified doctors 0:18:05.960 --> 0:18:10.480 aren't going to want to introduce you know, it can 0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:15.120 have EI and the workflow for the same reason the 0:18:15.160 --> 0:18:17.480 printer was back when the print and unions were around. 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:21.720 Didn't want desktop publishing software coming in and getting over 0:18:21.800 --> 0:18:25.960 that is going to be difficult. I think maybe I'm wrong, Yeah, just. 0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:26.880 The misery guts. 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:28.600 I'm much more optimistic about it. 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:30.560 It's true. 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:33.080 I think ai AI is one of those things that 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:35.879 can kind of, you know, creep creep through the system 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:37.720 without being noticed in quite that way. 0:18:38.440 --> 0:18:39.080 But we will see. 0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:41.600 As you say, neither neither of us are proper experts 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:46.359 here anyway that I want to go back if you 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:51.240 don't mind. Two mini bubbles sector bubbles inside markets, okay, 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:53.640 And obviously we have a we've collected a lot over 0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:56.080 the years, the Great Diving Bell bubble and you know 0:18:56.240 --> 0:18:58.040 that kind of thing. I've got a new one I've 0:18:58.040 --> 0:19:02.760 been looking at, which was the listed nursing home company bubble, 0:19:03.280 --> 0:19:05.679 the Fevered fifty they were called. That was a bubble 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:10.199 in the late sixties and early seventies. Wow, you know, 0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:12.280 obviously there was a lot of all sorts of regulatory change. 0:19:12.320 --> 0:19:14.600 That meant that people started manically building nursing homes and 0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:16.800 they would list them before they'd finished the construction, all 0:19:16.840 --> 0:19:19.720 that kind of thing. There were only a couple listed 0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:22.560 in nineteen sixty six. By nineteen seventy there were ninety, 0:19:23.240 --> 0:19:26.000 and then suddenly the bottom fell out completely in nineteen 0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:28.280 seventy one. There was a big fraud case. Of course, 0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:30.760 there's always a big fraud case, and that meant that 0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:33.400 everyone started going, whoa, whoa, whoa. We we can't return 0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:35.080 of twenty percent a year and you've got that much done. 0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:37.399 You haven't even built the nursing home yet. Over the 0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:40.000 collapse anyway, talking to someone about this the other day, 0:19:40.240 --> 0:19:43.480 and he said to me, had I ever heard of 0:19:43.520 --> 0:19:47.879 the great cryonics bubble crygenics bubble? 0:19:48.760 --> 0:19:48.920 Come? 0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:54.199 Yeah, And I cannot find anything about this on the 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:56.800 internet anywhere, not even with the little use of AI. 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:01.200 So this is a call out to our listeners. Does 0:20:01.400 --> 0:20:06.040 anybody know anything about the cryonics bubble or the cryogenics bubble, 0:20:06.040 --> 0:20:09.280 depending on what you call it, which I understand happened 0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:11.920 in the early eighties, when there was a great boom 0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:14.359 in the technology of freezing people's heads or freezing people's 0:20:14.400 --> 0:20:17.560 bodies to wake them up. Later on various scandals where 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:20.119