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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller.

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Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,

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Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news.

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Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever

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Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 1: We also had some news critty this morning for I

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Speaker 1: guess Twitter, which is now owned personally by Elon Musk,

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Speaker 1: so no longer trains publicly, but Twitter is still a

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Speaker 1: big news name they pulled. I went over to the

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Speaker 1: NBC Universal and got one other senior executives, Linda Yakarino,

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Speaker 1: to be the CEO of Twitter. It's kind of some

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Speaker 1: big news in the world of advertising and digital advertising.

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Speaker 1: Mandy Sing joins us. He's a techan also Bloomberg Intelligence,

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Speaker 1: So Mandy, but I know Twitter is no longer public,

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Speaker 1: but I mean, I guess if nothing else, you could say,

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Speaker 1: Elon Musk is serious about trying to, you know, try

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Speaker 1: to rebuild Twitter as a digital advertising platform.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's trusting to see him a point and executive,

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Speaker 4: you know, from a traditional media company. Obviously she's seasoned,

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Speaker 4: but I would be intrusted to know if he had

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Speaker 4: more than one candidate in mind in terms of, you know,

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Speaker 4: bringing someone for CEO role. And look, I think that's

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Speaker 4: the part that they need stability on. I mean, from

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Speaker 4: what we have read so far, Twitter has been losing

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Speaker 4: advertising dollars since the time have been private, So if

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Speaker 4: somebody can study the ship on that front, clearly engagement has.

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Speaker 5: Been stable, I think for the most part.

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Speaker 4: So it's advertising dollars that was a cost for concern

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Speaker 4: and maybe it's a good thing.

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Speaker 1: So Mandy, I know you follow Google, I know you

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Speaker 1: follow Meta and all that digital advertising space. What's the

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Speaker 1: feeling on Madison Avenue now and amongst advertisers, like do

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Speaker 1: they even want to put their dollars on Twitter? Have

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Speaker 1: they pulled their dollars off? Do we have any sense

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Speaker 1: of kind of how they're viewing Twitter these days as

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Speaker 1: an option?

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Speaker 6: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: So I think overall this earning season, the company's printed

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Speaker 5: better than expected results, even though expectations work quite low,

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Speaker 5: and my senses, even though Twitter is losing market share,

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Speaker 5: things seem to be stabilizing and generative. AI overall is

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Speaker 5: a positive for all the digital ad companies. We saw

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Speaker 5: Meta just announced AI Sandbox. I think every digital ad

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Speaker 5: company is going to try to do something similar in

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Speaker 5: terms of you know, self serve ads using generative AI

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Speaker 5: to make ads more personable, and that is where that

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Speaker 5: linear to digital shift is still going to continue. So

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Speaker 5: I think platforms like Twitter and even the smaller ones

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Speaker 5: will benefit from that trend. Obviously, things are still kind

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Speaker 5: of quite slow in terms of the ad growth, but

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Speaker 5: my sense is we probably are close to a bottom

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Speaker 5: in terms of the ad pricing headwinds over the last

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Speaker 5: few quarters.

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Speaker 7: Well, of course, we're seeing that Twitter is a private

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Speaker 7: company now, so we can't necessarily see a stock reaction there,

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Speaker 7: but you can in Tesla, Bailey walk us through the

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Speaker 7: logic there.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, right now, the stock over the past few days

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Speaker 8: up more than three percent, sharply outperforming the Nasdaq, which

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Speaker 8: is flat. And the big focus right now for investors

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Speaker 8: is that Elon can now refocus his attention on Tesla

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Speaker 8: with a new CEO overseeing Twitter or ex Corp, whatever

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Speaker 8: you want to call it, and that would free him up.

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Speaker 8: And that's been kind of the main thesis or one

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Speaker 8: of the big question marks around Tesla's path forward was

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Speaker 8: how distracted Cannelon must be and continue to deliver results

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Speaker 8: and to continue to deliver growth. And that seems to

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Speaker 8: be why you're seeing investors already rewarding Tesla just because

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Speaker 8: now it does seem like he can recenter that attention.

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Speaker 1: All right, Bailly Lipschultz, thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 1: Billy Lipschialt he covers all the markets for Bloomberg News

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Speaker 1: and man Deep Singh. He's a tech analyst, senior tech

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Speaker 1: dude over at Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 6: You're listening to the Team Kensher live program Bloomberg Markets

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Speaker 6: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the

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Speaker 6: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

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Speaker 6: demand wherever you get your podcast.

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Speaker 1: Jane Foley also doing the work she's had of FX

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Speaker 1: Strategy a robobank.

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Speaker 9: So Jane, let's just start there.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you see some economic data there that is

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Speaker 1: just really disappointing in the near term and then kind

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Speaker 1: of inflationary looking out five to ten years. You know,

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Speaker 1: from your perspective in the currency markets, what do.

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Speaker 9: You make of that data?

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Speaker 10: Well, I mean that's a bit of a worry isn't it.

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Speaker 10: And certainly the inflation expectations number does lend itself to

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Speaker 10: the higher for longer interest rates story. Now, clearly consumer

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Speaker 10: sentiment is down, and you know that that could be

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Speaker 10: a reaction to the concerns about that the debt ceiling,

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Speaker 10: and maybe that would be something that would respond if

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Speaker 10: these debt ceiling issues were sorted out. But at the

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Speaker 10: same time, you know it, with inflation higher, you know,

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Speaker 10: you've you've got to assume that the Fed will keep

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Speaker 10: on pressing to get that down to its two percent target.

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Speaker 10: And therefore, you know, at what cost to the economy

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Speaker 10: are we going to see? You know, that recession in

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Speaker 10: the latter half of this year and no let up

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Speaker 10: and interest rates And I think that's quite likely this

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Speaker 10: scenario that we are going to see.

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Speaker 7: Jane, what is the bear case here for the dollar?

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Speaker 7: It feels like, if you're talking about a recession, you

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Speaker 7: buy the dollar. If you're talking about a US debt default,

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Speaker 7: you go to safety in buy the dollar. What is

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Speaker 7: the bare case for the green back?

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Speaker 10: Well, to be honest, you know, for those reasons that

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Speaker 10: we do think that the dollar will come back in

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Speaker 10: the second half of the year. We think you're a

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Speaker 10: dollar you know, could slip to it to one oh

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Speaker 10: six in the second half of the year, and as

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Speaker 10: the market prices out interest rate hikes, and as safe

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Speaker 10: haven bids get stuck in. Because let's face it, if

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Speaker 10: the US economy does hit recession at a time when

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Speaker 10: we might have just stagnation for the Eurozone and where

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Speaker 10: the Chinese economy is or the Chinese recovery is disappointing,

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Speaker 10: you know many forecasters who really wants to move into

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Speaker 10: to high risk and I certainly thinking in that environment

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Speaker 10: that you would buy the dollar. So that is our forecast.

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Speaker 10: But your question is what would turn it, you know,

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Speaker 10: what would make the dollar you know, sell off and

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Speaker 10: go stronger. And I think in that scenario, we would

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Speaker 10: have to have a scenario where the global economy is

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Speaker 10: looking really good, where the market wants to buy on

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Speaker 10: pile more into the high risk because that is generally

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Speaker 10: what happens, that the dollar has a pretty good inverted

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Speaker 10: correlation with risky assets, and when the global economic outlook

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Speaker 10: has been good and people piling to risk assets, the

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Speaker 10: dollar does it poorly. And I don't think that's what

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Speaker 10: we're going to see in the second half of this year.

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Speaker 7: So, but it does sound like, ultimately, when we're talking

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Speaker 7: about even the ball case for the dollar, which you

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Speaker 7: have beautifully laid out, the idea of interest rate differentials,

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Speaker 7: the idea of a hawkish ECB or a hawkish BOE

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Speaker 7: kind of driving the euro and pound strength, that doesn't

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Speaker 7: seem to be what's driving the narrative for the dollar anymore.

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Speaker 7: It's no longer about interest rates as much as it was,

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Speaker 7: say a year ago.

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Speaker 9: Would you agree with that?

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Speaker 10: Well, you know what, I think we can actually look

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Speaker 10: and see what is in the price and the market

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Speaker 10: has already got more ECB interest rate hikes priced in,

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Speaker 10: it's already got more Bank of England interust rates priced in.

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Speaker 10: And I think if we take the euro, for instance,

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Speaker 10: over and above what is already priced in, can the

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Speaker 10: market make an even better call for buying the euro?

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Speaker 10: And I think at this stage probably not, because what

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Speaker 10: we've had for the Euro since the start of the

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Speaker 10: year is relief, better than expected news. Because we had

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Speaker 10: in mid winter here in Europe, guess prices have come down.

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Speaker 10: We didn't have the recession in Germany, and we've seen

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Speaker 10: a hawky GCB. But now that that's all priced in

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Speaker 10: what are we facing when we're facing probably stagnation in

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Speaker 10: H two and so is that a reason to buy

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Speaker 10: the euro world? Probably not. And the market's already long

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Speaker 10: and so I think interest rate differentials are still very

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Speaker 10: much at play, but we've got to compare them to

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Speaker 10: what's already in the price.

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Speaker 1: And Jane, I'm just looking at the pounds sterling. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's up seventeen eighteen percent off of that low. What's

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Speaker 1: going on there?

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Speaker 10: Well, you know it has had a good run, but

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Speaker 10: actually in the last twenty four hours or so, it's

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Speaker 10: it's really beginning to fail. And again, you know, similar

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Speaker 10: to the Euro, there's a lot of better news in

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Speaker 10: the price. If we look back in March, Sterning was

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Speaker 10: the best performing G ten currency in March and that

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Speaker 10: reflected a slow or better than expected data which we're

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Speaker 10: coming through there. So you could argue that although the

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Speaker 10: Bank of England increased its forecast for GDP yesterday and

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Speaker 10: also for inflation, when the markets sort of already knew that,

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Speaker 10: it was already perhaps prepared for more interstrate hikes or

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Speaker 10: another interstrate hike care from the Bank of England before

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Speaker 10: you know, before the peak, and so from that point

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Speaker 10: of view, because sterling failed or cable failed to hold

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Speaker 10: its higher levels. And let's say also the dollar was

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Speaker 10: on the front foot yesterday because it failed to go higher.

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Speaker 10: Well you know, the technicals began to sour and it

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Speaker 10: went lower instead. And I think we are at the

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Speaker 10: point now whereby it's we've had enough better news for

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Speaker 10: the UK for the market to close its short positions.

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Speaker 10: But have we got the sort of news that the

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Speaker 10: market wants to build long stirling positions from this point?

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Speaker 10: And I think probably not, because although these GDP numbers

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Speaker 10: were revised up, they've been revised up to a stagnationary

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Speaker 10: or even a statulationary environment, and a better outlook for

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Speaker 10: the UK economy is what we've got. That doesn't mean

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Speaker 10: to say it's good, certainly not well, how how what.

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Speaker 9: Is it like in in London? Says in England these days?

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Speaker 1: What's just kind of the feeling for the average brit

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Speaker 1: right now as it relates to the economy, the outlook?

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Speaker 9: What can you what can you share with us?

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Speaker 10: Well, you know, you know, the first thing I would

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Speaker 10: share is that the feeling in London is usually very

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Speaker 10: different to other The economy London and the Southeast tends

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Speaker 10: to be a lot more prosperous, but you know, I

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Speaker 10: do know that around the country as a whole. You know,

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Speaker 10: over the last year or so, there has been a

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Speaker 10: real streep rise in food banks and the amount of

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Speaker 10: people using food banks. So because of living crisis on

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Speaker 10: an individual basis has been extremely painful for an awful

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Speaker 10: lot of people. That's said, because the labor market is

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Speaker 10: tight and because most people you know who want a

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Speaker 10: job have got a job. What we have seen is

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Speaker 10: aggregate demand has been stronger than expected and that's what's

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Speaker 10: led to this improved GDP outlook and actually improved level

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Speaker 10: for the government coffers even because there's been more taxes

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Speaker 10: being paid. So we've had this better than expected outcome

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Speaker 10: on an aggregate basis, But on an individual basis, there's

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Speaker 10: an awful lot of people really feeling the pinch because

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Speaker 10: of higher inflation and higher interest rates.

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Speaker 7: Well, speaking of really feeling the pinch, there's a fun

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Speaker 7: fact I think from the I'm of Spring meetings that

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Speaker 7: I just can't let go of the idea that is

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Speaker 7: going to take years for the British economy to climb

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Speaker 7: their way out of this kind of recessionary period. What

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Speaker 7: does that do to the currency? I mean, we're looking

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Speaker 7: at one twenty four on the cable rate right now.

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Speaker 7: How much upside, how much downside is there?

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Speaker 10: Well, you know, but perhaps a better example of that is,

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Speaker 10: you know, I can tell you that that Sterling has

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Speaker 10: still not recovered to its levels against the Euro that

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Speaker 10: were there before the Brexit referendum in twenty sixty. So

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Speaker 10: from that point of view, I think that reflects perhaps

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Speaker 10: also the weakness of business investment, for instance in the UK,

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Speaker 10: a lot of the political uncertainty that we've had in

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Speaker 10: recent years, and that has certainly over the last year

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Speaker 10: or two and before that created this this theory of doubt,

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Speaker 10: this sentiment of doubt and uncertainty surrounding the UK economy

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Speaker 10: and also sterling. Now with respect to cable, obviously that's

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Speaker 10: governed quite a lot about what the dollar does, and

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Speaker 10: I think in the second half of the year cable's

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Speaker 10: going to be more about the dollar perhaps than about sterling.

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Speaker 10: But even though sterling has covered a lot against the

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Speaker 10: dollars in say much historically, it's still below its medium levels.

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Speaker 1: Jane Fowley, thank you so much for joining us. We

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Speaker 1: always appreciate getting your perspective. Jane Foley, head of FX

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Speaker 1: strategy at Robobanks. She is based in London. I always

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Speaker 1: appreciate getting that view as well. So again the currency markets.

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Speaker 1: Looking at the Bloomberg Dollar Index, it's up three tenths

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Speaker 1: of one percent today.

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Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape canser, our live program Bloomberg

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Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 6: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 1: Thirty going on again that you mission data.

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Speaker 9: I mean, it's just ugly any way.

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Speaker 1: You look at current conditions, worse than people than we

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Speaker 1: had thought, inflation going to be higher than we had thought.

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Speaker 1: There's just not a good way to spin that. Robert

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Speaker 1: Teeter joins us. He's head of investment policy and the

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Speaker 1: Strategy Group at Silvercrest Asset Management CRETY.

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Speaker 9: It's interesting to note that he joins us in studio.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, Bloomberg employees aren't even in the building.

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Speaker 7: I was ordinarily that would get a gold star from Paul. Yeah,

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Speaker 7: on like a day like today, it's like three gold stars,

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Speaker 7: maybe a trophy.

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Speaker 1: I don't know exactly, So Robert, let's just start with

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Speaker 1: some ego data that you missed.

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Speaker 9: Data came out. I don't know, man, it just doesn't

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Speaker 9: look good anyway, Slice, what did you make of it?

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Speaker 11: Yeah, So, I think the two things I focused on

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Speaker 11: the most were the sentiment side, which looks, you know,

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Speaker 11: very negative. Most sentiment indicators have been very negative. It's

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Speaker 11: quite an interesting disconnect between the relatively strong job market

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Speaker 11: and just continued persistent negative sentiment. So I think that's

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Speaker 11: an interesting disconnect that will resolve at some point one

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Speaker 11: way or the other. I think more towards sentiment improving.

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Speaker 11: You look at the component of it related to inflation

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Speaker 11: expectations ticking up, that's not that much of a surprise

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Speaker 11: to me. While it was better than, you know, higher, hotter,

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Speaker 11: worse than expectations, it is something that we've been hearing

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Speaker 11: for months and months now that inflation's going to be

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Speaker 11: sticky and persistent, and so I'm not that surprised to

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Speaker 11: see it show up in the survey data. The number

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Speaker 11: that it's at, it's a bit elevated but not terrible

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Speaker 11: in my opinion.

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Speaker 7: Let's talk about the dead ceiling.

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Speaker 9: Sharlotte, Oh, that's fun.

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Speaker 8: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: Always it feels like there is a concern about just

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Speaker 7: how bad it'll get. Talk to us about the layers

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Speaker 7: of messy mess here.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, I think that's a great way to think of it.

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Speaker 11: I do think like most people that in the end,

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Speaker 11: cooler heads will prevail and we will get a solution.

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Speaker 11: The question is what's the path look like from here

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Speaker 11: to there? And I think the path could get a

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Speaker 11: bit messy, and I think that sets the stage for

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Speaker 11: you know how we have to think about the state

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Speaker 11: of politics in the US going forward being a risk

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Speaker 11: factor in the economy. And so I do think we'll

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Speaker 11: get resolution. I think that's a good thing, but it

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Speaker 11: could get a little bit.

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Speaker 9: Messy because what are the options here?

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Speaker 5: Though?

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 11: So I think one of the things is that whenever

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Speaker 11: you saw the release from Secretary Yellen talking about the

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Speaker 11: X state, you know, making it June first and trying

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Speaker 11: to get everyone focused in on June first as a deadline,

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Speaker 11: there was also some language in there that indicated the

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Speaker 11: fact that, well, it could be several weeks after that,

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Speaker 11: and so you could have this rolling crisis situation where

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Speaker 11: where you push and push and push into June one,

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Speaker 11: don't get a resolution, and glide another couple of weeks,

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Speaker 11: and then hope that, you know, we get to those

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Speaker 11: dates where more money comes in the door and the

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Speaker 11: X date gets pushed out further. I think that's a

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Speaker 11: pretty tough situation for markets, because you'll just be looking

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Speaker 11: at a rolling series of crises overcoming weeks. So I

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Speaker 11: think if we don't get that resolution by June one,

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Speaker 11: we could be in for some real choppiness after that.

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Speaker 9: All right, So I don't know what do you do here?

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's there's a lot of what ifs out there,

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Speaker 1: and most notably I guess I guess this. You know

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Speaker 1: this stuff about the debt ceiling, but there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of cross currents out there. How are you when you

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Speaker 1: talk to clients, what are you kind of how you

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Speaker 1: kind of framing out the next six to twelve months?

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Speaker 11: Yeah, So I sort of start with the economy and

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Speaker 11: where we are today, and I think we're running at

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Speaker 11: about one and a half percent growth. So I look

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Speaker 11: at the real time models, I look at mobility indicators,

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Speaker 11: spending and things like that. I think we're a little

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Speaker 11: north of one percent. We have a pretty strong job market,

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Speaker 11: and so that's consistent with that sort of stability as

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Speaker 11: far as the economy is concerned. When you look out

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Speaker 11: in the near term, though, you know, we're certainly going

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Speaker 11: to have some continued drag from the from the credit

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Speaker 11: crunch and from the things going on in the banking sector.

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Speaker 11: So there we've modeled that out. We looked at the

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Speaker 11: eighties and nineties SNL crisis very different, similar in terms

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Speaker 11: of dollar amounts, but very dissimilar in terms of the

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Speaker 11: eighties nineties. You had hundreds of banks failing every year,

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Speaker 11: and so we estimate something like thirty percent of stress

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Speaker 11: of the eighties today and to us that leads to

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Speaker 11: about a one percent GDP decline, So that gets us

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Speaker 11: pretty close to that flat line of you know, flat

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Speaker 11: growth for coming quarters.

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Speaker 7: Oh my gosh, thirty percent of the pain in the eighties,

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Speaker 7: that's not that's that's something.

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Speaker 9: The eighties were pretty good to me, So I know.

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Speaker 7: We always talk about we always talk about the.

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Speaker 5: Eighties with me and Paul.

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Speaker 7: I was not around in the eighties, surprise, surprise, but

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Speaker 7: I always refer to the eighties, especially to talk about

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Speaker 7: inflation and you know, Reagan and defense and all that

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Speaker 7: fun stuff, and he's like, you know what I was

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Speaker 7: doing in the eighties, having a great time, And I

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Speaker 7: was like, yeah, same. Let's talk about the trade here, though,

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Speaker 7: because it is a pretty doomsday scenario that thirty percent

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Speaker 7: of the pain in the eighties is still quite a

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Speaker 7: lot of pain. Is it as simple as you just

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Speaker 7: liquidate your treasury holdings? Is that the trade?

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Speaker 11: I don't think so. I think your bride through there

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Speaker 11: is quite a premium there looking at the you know,

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Speaker 11: the spread in terms of the treasuries maturing around the

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Speaker 11: debt ceiling, so that's certainly a risk factor there. On

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Speaker 11: the banking side, I think that I look at it

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Speaker 11: across three different levels, So I think from a depositor standpoint,

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Speaker 11: the crisis has basically been solved. And I think that

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Speaker 11: you know, the fad, the FDIC and Treasury have been

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Speaker 11: very resolute in that. As it relates to banking equities

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Speaker 11: and future profits, that's still an open question mark as

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Speaker 11: to what type of activity they'll have. But the reason

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Speaker 11: that I think that the stress today is only thirty

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Speaker 11: percent of the SNL crisis is that it hasn't become

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Speaker 11: as widespread. So again, you had hundreds and hundreds of

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Speaker 11: banks failing in the eighties, and that was at a

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Speaker 11: period of time when there was much more pervasive in

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Speaker 11: terms of the economy. You know, here we look at

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Speaker 11: the banking issues, there's a lot of stress, there's a

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Speaker 11: lot of big dollars involved in the takeovers that have

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Speaker 11: gone under in the failures, but it's not as pervasive

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Speaker 11: throughout the system. So I don't think it becomes quite

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Speaker 11: as big of a risk factor.

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Speaker 1: What do I go in the bond market here? I mean,

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Speaker 1: I look at it to your treasury, it's almost four percent.

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Speaker 1: It's not a beach of kick in the head. I think,

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Speaker 1: given what happened in twenty twenty two, how are you

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Speaker 1: guys thinking about the fixing space these days?

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Speaker 11: Yeah, I think bonds are a pretty interesting opportunity here.

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Speaker 11: I mean, do you have, as you mentioned, pretty solid yields.

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Speaker 11: We've had the backdrop of continual improvements in inflation, so

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Speaker 11: ten months in a row now of CPI improving. I

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Speaker 11: think that continues. If you look at some of the

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Speaker 11: comments in ism or some of the things you hear

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Speaker 11: in earnings reports. Inventory levels are coming down they're being

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Speaker 11: managed better. That points to future price improvement, points to

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Speaker 11: better inflation, points to good outlook for bonds in the

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Speaker 11: near term. And you're right that four percent type of

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Speaker 11: level is a pretty good yield compared to where things

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Speaker 11: might sit in the short term with a lot of

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Speaker 11: the stress going on inequities.

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Speaker 7: But then if you get stuck holding it and there

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Speaker 7: is actually the very first default in history for the

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Speaker 7: United States, you lose a lot of money very very quickly.

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Speaker 7: What then looks good? I'm trying to think if there

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Speaker 7: is actually a DeVault.

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Speaker 11: Where do you go if it gets to that point.

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Speaker 11: I think not very many things look good and it

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Speaker 11: will be a very challenging.

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Speaker 7: That's when you go to the ATMs and pull out cash.

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Speaker 11: I'm hopeful that it doesn't get there, and I think

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Speaker 11: that we'll find a way to solve the problem before

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Speaker 11: it gets that bad.

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Speaker 1: We were there thousand and eight. I was at an

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Speaker 1: idea dinner from a investment bank, yeah, seven or eight

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Speaker 1: reasonably smart investors, and I've been to a bunch of these,

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Speaker 1: and the discussion was how much cash should you have

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Speaker 1: in your house? Number one, ten grand, twenty five grand,

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Speaker 1: fifty that that's what was discussion, and the second discussion

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Speaker 1: was what's the best safe to have in your house?

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Speaker 1: So people were on Amazon dot Com at this dinner

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Speaker 1: buying safes that be delivered to there.

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Speaker 11: We're not there now, We're not there, and I don't

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Speaker 11: think we're any more close to there. And I remember

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Speaker 11: that time as well, when the fear was over access

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Speaker 11: to your money, and we had, you know, maybe a

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Speaker 11: few hours of that fear perking up in the early

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Speaker 11: days of this bank crisis. But that's that's been quashed

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Speaker 11: pretty solidly, and I think deposits are sound here in

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Speaker 11: the average consumer, the average employee in the job market

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Speaker 11: throughout the country knows that how much should they say?

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Speaker 9: We said twenty five grand in cash? Yep, all right,

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Speaker 9: and like it's not easy to I don't know.

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Speaker 1: It wasn't easy to do, but I mean, and then

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Speaker 1: people were literally talking about, oh, this I got this safe.

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Speaker 9: This is great, it's it's the best thing, you know,

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Speaker 9: blah blah blah, A very different friends, clearly, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Robert Teeter, head of an investment policy and strategy group Silvercrest

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Speaker 1: Asset Management, joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.

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Speaker 6: You're listening to the team Ken's are Live program Bloomberg

438
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,359
Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

439
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:21,560
Speaker 6: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen

440
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 6: on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

441
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 1: If you're in Bangkok, Thailand, and let's say it's Friday,

442
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 1: I don't eleven at thirty to night, twelve thirty nights

443
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 1: something like that on a Friday.

444
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 9: Do you dial into Bloomberg Radio.

445
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:35,040
Speaker 12: It sounds like maybe you do.

446
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 1: No, that would not be bit But this guy, this

447
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 1: is how hard he works. Dan Ives, Managing Director, senior

448
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,680
Speaker 1: equity analyst Webush Security. He's overdoing some Asian marketing trip.

449
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 1: I guess trying to scam some votes from institutional investors.

450
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 9: I appreciate that I did that for many years. But Dan,

451
00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:50,400
Speaker 9: we're going to bring you back down to earth.

452
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 8: Here.

453
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 1: We got some movement here on Twitter and Tesla and

454
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 1: Linda Yakarino out of NBC Universal. I guess her going

455
00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:59,879
Speaker 1: over to Twitter is a really good thing for Twitter

456
00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,400
Speaker 1: and maybe even a good thing for Tesla knit shareholders.

457
00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 1: What did you make of today's news?

458
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,160
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean this is a home run higher because

459
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,960
Speaker 13: of because there are a background on a digital advertising

460
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:16,480
Speaker 13: perspective from NBC Universal. It's exactly what Twitter needed, I mean,

461
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 13: must you know, ultimately this balancing act, the clock struck,

462
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 13: sinnite investors will get more and more frustrated, and it's

463
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 13: a positive for Tesla with now I mean even though

464
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 13: he's CTO, efforts more and more focused on back on

465
00:21:31,920 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 13: Tesla with Wynd and now we're going to be CEO.

466
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 12: So sticking with the Twitter piece before we get over

467
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,920
Speaker 12: to Tesla here, Dan, does this move for Yakarina work

468
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 12: well for the advertisement side of Twitter?

469
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 10: Oh?

470
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 13: I think it's exactly what the doctor ordered because she's

471
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:56,680
Speaker 13: extremely well respected in the advertisement community. She understands that world.

472
00:21:57,200 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 13: And I think ultimately it's been uphill bad for Twitter

473
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 13: and this is exactly what they needed. And I think

474
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 13: it's the right pick and also something that compliments must

475
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 13: in terms of the strategy of Twitter. Look, there's it's

476
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 13: an uphill battle, but this was where I continue to

477
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 13: view as a home run higher.

478
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 1: All right, Dan, ever and Asia presumably meeting with the

479
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 1: institutional investors. What are the names they want to talk about,

480
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 1: what are the themes that they want to talk about

481
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 1: when they get dan ives, you know, kind of across

482
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 1: the conference table.

483
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 10: Yeah.

484
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 13: Look, the big focus has really been this AI arms race.

485
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,719
Speaker 13: How do you play? It? Is Microsoft just the winner?

486
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 13: Is where does Google play? Where do other tech players?

487
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 13: That that I believe is really one of the biggest

488
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,439
Speaker 13: teams that we're seeing along with just big tech. I

489
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,040
Speaker 13: mean there's a continue to grind higher and you mean

490
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 13: you've talked about I think tech's up another rest of

491
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 13: the year, which is what we're seeing in terms of

492
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,640
Speaker 13: better than fear numbers and fundamentals holding up.

493
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 3: Games.

494
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 12: Are you liking most if I can ask you to

495
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 12: name any in the tech space.

496
00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 13: Yeah, right now. Look, Apple to me continues to be

497
00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 13: our top pick in terms of where I see that

498
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 13: in terms of overall iPhone install based on the up

499
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 13: great opportunity. Microsoft continues to be our core cloud play

500
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 13: you know, just raised price stars and distreancial forty and

501
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 13: that in this AI Game of Thrones battle, they continue

502
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 13: to win that hands over. And I think Power Out

503
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 13: on cybersecurity continues to be the core name, and then

504
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,400
Speaker 13: tess on disruptive tech. I mean, I think it's one

505
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 13: where price cuts were needed. It's obviously struggling through in

506
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 13: a margin perspective, But I think they're going to navigate

507
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 13: and get onto the other side of Hey.

508
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: Dan, you know, for me and for a lot of

509
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 1: other I think investors, the deterioration in relations between the

510
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 1: US and China is troubling on so many levels. One

511
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 1: of the levels is just technology. Are we when you

512
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:59,159
Speaker 1: travel around Asia speaking to an institutional investors, are they

513
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:03,199
Speaker 1: concerned about it a tech cold war between China and

514
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,680
Speaker 1: kind of I don't know the West broadly defined.

515
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,840
Speaker 13: Oh, I think it's the biggest thing that comes up,

516
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 13: especially here in Asia in terms of this cold tech

517
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 13: war playing out has an impact of supply chain. There

518
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 13: was just ultimately a potential black Swan event at one

519
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 13: point down the road, and I think ultimately it really

520
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 13: is the biggest risk impact now. I think Apple has

521
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 13: to have navigated that phenomenally. But there's no doubt this

522
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 13: is the geopolitical sort of tightwire act that you know,

523
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 13: I believe right now, invessers are sort of continuing to

524
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 13: focus more and more on although I think fundamentals really

525
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 13: dictate to day right now.

526
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 3: In big text, we had to.

527
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,520
Speaker 12: Paul's point, we had Larry Summer speaking with our David

528
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 12: Weston about this, and he said that for businesses, the

529
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 12: US gives you a wrist slap and China rolls out

530
00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 12: the red carpet. Are you sensing that from where you sit?

531
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 13: Yeah? Look, and I think I think if you look

532
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 13: even at Cook called ten percent politician ninety percent tactician,

533
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,399
Speaker 13: I mean, China understands right now in terms of this

534
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 13: tenuous opportunity that we're seeing. You are trying to see

535
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 13: more and more diversification to India, to Vietnam, you know,

536
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 13: and cross and as well as in the US with Ira,

537
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 13: and that's gonna be a tight rope that they play.

538
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 13: But I think for right now you're gonna see that

539
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:34,439
Speaker 13: as the biggest risk. And I think ultimately Apple and

540
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 13: Tesla are the ones that continue to sort of walk

541
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 13: that tightwire act. And in really what's essentially the coupling

542
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 13: between the US and China is.

543
00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 1: The feeling there in Asia a Dan As you spend

544
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, I'm assuming you're gonna be doing

545
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 1: some channel checks with the supply chain and so on.

546
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: Is there a feeling in Asia that Asia plus India

547
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 1: plus maybe some other parts of the world can maybe

548
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 1: make up for any supply chain disruption that may even

549
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: grow from here as relates to China.

550
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 13: Yeah, and Paul, I think the one thing and we'll

551
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:13,199
Speaker 13: be in Taiwan next week as well, that the supply

552
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 13: chain issues are really starting to moderate as well as

553
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 13: you combine it with the feeling inventory from a chip perspective,

554
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 13: we're really starting to get down to a point that

555
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 13: we maybe turn here and that's positive for chips, it's

556
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 13: positive for Apple, and then Cherry on top of the

557
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 13: Sunday is really just AI. I mean Ai, we've used

558
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 13: an atos a billion dollar mark in next decade. That's

559
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 13: really added to how tech investors, not just here in Asia,

560
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 13: but across the US, Europe, you're in around the world

561
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 13: are trying to play this. It's not just Microsoft that's

562
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 13: the winner. It's going to be a game of thrones

563
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:52,120
Speaker 13: playing out across big tech.

564
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 12: Well within that frame of thinking, were you concerned at

565
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 12: all about Apple not really digging into AI much in general,

566
00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 12: but also specifically in their latest earnings they were kind

567
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:04,560
Speaker 12: of one of the ones that really didn't mention it

568
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 12: very much.

569
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 13: Yeah, but it's standard cooking crew, Patino. I mean, they

570
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 13: play a different game of poker than other big tech players.

571
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 13: But I believe it's the Developer Conference next month as

572
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 13: well as into the fall. They're going to talk more

573
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 13: and more about their AI strategy, and I think Apple

574
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 13: is not going to be on the outside looking in

575
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 13: when it comes to AI. Just giving the DNA of

576
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 13: Crew Pertina.

577
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 1: And Tesla just lasts before we let you go. Hopefully

578
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,440
Speaker 1: you have a much more fun Friday evening than talking

579
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 1: to us. But so for Tesla, is there a sense there?

580
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 1: I mean, Elon's invested so much personally and professionally in China,

581
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:48,719
Speaker 1: is that still a market for Tesla or the incumbent

582
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 1: electric vehicle makers they're going to really run the game.

583
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 10: Yeah.

584
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 13: Look, I think Tesla has been shared in China, but

585
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 13: there's no doubt it's a price war that's playing out

586
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 13: versus UID Neo and a lot of the domestic players.

587
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 13: But that's gonna continue to going to be the core

588
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 13: ingredients of their success. Of autos are coming out in China,

589
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 13: and I think that's not really going to change. But

590
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,360
Speaker 13: there's no doubt the price war in China's front and center,

591
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 13: and Tessa aggressively is going after that.

592
00:28:22,119 --> 00:28:23,880
Speaker 1: All right, Dan, thanks very much, you know, we really

593
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 1: appreciate the time we know you're on the other side

594
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 1: of the globe. Dan Ives, he's a managing director and

595
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 1: senior equity analysts for web Bush Securities. And when you're

596
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 1: a tech on us like Dan and particularly well known

597
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: and well respected tech analysts, you need to be in

598
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 1: Asia probably more than the average financial type for a

599
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 1: couple of reasons. One, you want to visit institutional investors

600
00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: are there, but too you want to get a first

601
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 1: hand look at the supply chain, uh, in the technology space, hardware, software,

602
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 1: and a lot of that, particularly on the hardware side,

603
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 1: is in Asia. So that's why you'll see, uh, these

604
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 1: techotiles spend a lot of time physically in Asia doing

605
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 1: you know, channel checks, you know, where our things in

606
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 1: the chip space, how are things in the manufacturing space?

607
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 1: And now maybe with China disengaging a little bit more,

608
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 1: it may be a greater issue. And I think that's

609
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: kind of what tech guys like Dan Ives are doing.

610
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape cans are live program Bloomberg

611
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

612
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg business app.

613
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:23,479
Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

614
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 6: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

615
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 1: So we want to talk about the digital ad space,

616
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: our go to pursus Mark Douglas. He's a president CEO

617
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 1: of Mountain and Mountains and advertising software company enabling brands

618
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: to drive measurable conversions, revenue and site visits right down

619
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:47,680
Speaker 1: the fairway for Mark. So, Mark, I had two very

620
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 1: highly ranked and esteemed auto analysts or no, I take

621
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 1: the back technology analysts who said this is a home

622
00:29:54,760 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: run deal for Twitter and signing this executive from NBC Universal.

623
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 9: You're not so sure, are you? Don't you don't take

624
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 9: that rut?

625
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean I want to say, first Linda the

626
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 14: person at NBC Universal that is rumored to be the

627
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 14: person that's going to take this role. She's a very

628
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 14: very capable executive. My company mount has a big partnership

629
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 14: with NBC and but the and I think she could

630
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 14: definitely do the role. The one thing I'll say, though,

631
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 14: is when you combine a kind of big brand advertising

632
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 14: executive and you combine that with something that's like a

633
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 14: social platform or a search platform, you kind of get Yahoo.

634
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 1: And you're not saying that, you're not taking that in

635
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 1: a positive sense.

636
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 14: I mean, I'm saying that Linda can do this job,

637
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 14: but at some point correct at some point. And the

638
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 14: way I say you get Yahoo, what you get is

639
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,479
Speaker 14: a company that kind of tops out in revenue at

640
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 14: a few bills. It's a lot of money, but you

641
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,080
Speaker 14: know Google and Meta they top out at over one

642
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 14: hundred billion. Amazon has built an AD business. I think

643
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 14: it's now approaching forty billion, and it's done in a

644
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 14: remarkably short period of time. So those companies focus on

645
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 14: performance advertising, direct response advertising. And so I think if

646
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 14: Linda winds up leading that she's going to need a very,

647
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 14: very capable team that probably formally worked a Meta or

648
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 14: formally worked at Google to build out the technology and

649
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 14: the platform to have a long tail of advertised So

650
00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 14: the thing might say Yahoo, that's a company that had

651
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 14: a few thousand advertisers. You look at NBC to have

652
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 14: a few thousand advertisers. Meta in Google have millions, and

653
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 14: you can't really scale to the numbers that think well

654
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:54,440
Speaker 14: that people would really expect the Twitter without being able

655
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 14: to reach million, you know, hundreds of thousands of millions

656
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 14: potential advertising, and that chances are not going to come

657
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 14: from television executives. It's going to come from, you know,

658
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 14: from from other social social platforms like Meta, TikTok, the Google,

659
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 14: the executives at those kind of companies. So she will

660
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:16,479
Speaker 14: have to add that to our team one way or another.

661
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 3: It's kind of my point.

662
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 12: So, Mark, what do you see as can you give

663
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 12: me kind of a specific example of what you see

664
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 12: as the biggest experience whole that could potentially impact her

665
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 12: time at Twitter? And we should mention that Musk did

666
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 12: confirm that she's taking on the CEO role in a tweet,

667
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 12: But what do you see as you know, a specific

668
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,240
Speaker 12: situation she's going to encounter that her lack of social

669
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 12: media experience might lead to some issues with Yeah, and.

670
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 14: By the way, I think that had to be confirmed

671
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 14: because NBC's upfront television up Front starts Monday. Oh yeah,

672
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 14: so and chances are and she was leading it, so

673
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 14: chance so it may not be.

674
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 3: Six weeks now before she starts to roll.

675
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 14: But I think yeah, I mean so, the skill set

676
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 14: is fundamentally the big dollars in advertising on digital advertising,

677
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 14: They come from the smallest of customers. So the experience

678
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 14: they come from the companies that you know, the director

679
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 14: consumer branding and a retailers. They know, those big dollars

680
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 14: ironically don't come from the big advertisers.

681
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 3: They don't come from.

682
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 14: You know, the Coke Pepsi or things like that. They

683
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 14: come from all of these smaller advertisers. With the millions

684
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 14: of websites we have and shopping sites and travel sites

685
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 14: and things like that, that that incrementally spends just really

686
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 14: significant amounts of money and that really insulates you from

687
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 14: economic downturns. You notice that even in the worst of

688
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 14: economic times, Meta actually had an up quarter because they're

689
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 14: very insulated from like any small number like one hundred

690
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 14: cmos controlling a budget. So she's going to need people

691
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 14: with that experience.

692
00:33:58,720 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 3: How do you build out and perform?

693
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 14: And it's marketing platform for Twitter that can attract all

694
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 14: of these smaller advertisers who are ultimately who were going

695
00:34:07,640 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 14: to build our business around and build it to much

696
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 14: much larger scale. You see, like Amazon did the fantastic

697
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 14: job of that. I mean, how the there aren't a

698
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 14: lot of large advertisers on Amazon's advertising platform. It's all

699
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 14: these small sellers that are the majority of that revenue,

700
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 14: and that's what those that skill set to do that

701
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 14: is I think the skill set she's going to need

702
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 14: to add to her team. I don't think she classically

703
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 14: has that on her resume.

704
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:40,439
Speaker 1: So mark every company in every industry over the last

705
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: several quarters in her conference call have mentioned AI, and

706
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 1: I think the kids are referring to artificial intelligence.

707
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 9: I'm not sure about that.

708
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 1: But so how does that factor into what is a

709
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:55,959
Speaker 1: multi gajillion dollar business, which is the advertising business, both

710
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 1: linear you know, TV, radio, all that kind of stuff,

711
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 1: as well as the growth engine which is digital advertising.

712
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 14: Yeah, so what what Google and Meta is so good

713
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 14: at is finding the right consumer for your brand. I

714
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:13,440
Speaker 14: mean that's ultimately I always say no advertising advertising purchases.

715
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 14: They don't actually want to buy ads. They want to

716
00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 14: buy traffic. They want to buy the consumers that are

717
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 14: aligned with the product that they're selling. And Google obviously

718
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 14: is incredibly I mean, it's it's the most efficient marketing

719
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 14: engine ever because you literally tell them what you're interested

720
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 14: in buying, and then they go here and then they

721
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 14: take you right to.

722
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:37,280
Speaker 3: It and so and so that's why they're so large.

723
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 14: And Meta doesn't have that kind of input, but they

724
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 14: got very very good at it, obviously to build their

725
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 14: business over one hundred billion dollars, and that is really

726
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 14: hard for small advertisers.

727
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 3: And what those companies are really good at.

728
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 14: I think now the where AI is going to play

729
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 14: a role is one bringing more efficiency into the advertising

730
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 14: egosis into just getting really, really, really incredibly good at

731
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 14: making that connection. Who are the consumers that are very

732
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 14: open to hearing your message and hopefully potentially want to

733
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 14: buy a product? And I think there's still a lot

734
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 14: of room to go in that type of technology, and

735
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:18,120
Speaker 14: I think we are at a point where a lot

736
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 14: of that tech is going to be AI orient technology

737
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 14: to do it.

738
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 12: I also want to ask about Disney, while we have

739
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 12: you a tough week for them, They owe Comcast a

740
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 12: lot of money for the Hulu situation. What do you

741
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 12: think is the likelihood of Comcast potentially just going all

742
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 12: in and purchasing Hulu.

743
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 10: Yeah.

744
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 14: I think the conversations on that were very active, just

745
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,239
Speaker 14: you know, knowing people at Comcasts and Disney. But I

746
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 14: think Disney definitively they said we're doing a bundle and

747
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 14: they did, I mean, they upset they want to double

748
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:54,439
Speaker 14: down on on owning Hulu and making it a part

749
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:56,840
Speaker 14: of a major bundle with Disney Plus and some of

750
00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 14: the other properties. So I know is going to then

751
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:04,959
Speaker 14: try to extract as much money as they possibly can

752
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 14: from the portion of Hulu that they own. But I

753
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 14: think that was a big question mark. And I think

754
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 14: this week that that question mark was removed, that that

755
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:19,479
Speaker 14: Disney wants to own Hulu and they and and that's

756
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 14: going to happen, but the details on the money they

757
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 14: owe comcasts relate to Hulu are still to be worked out.

758
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:27,720
Speaker 3: I also think just they have one more point.

759
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 14: I mean Hulu as this I'm sorry, Disney as a

760
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:34,839
Speaker 14: stock is they have so much, they have so many

761
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 14: ways to save money and make Wall Street happy and

762
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:39,799
Speaker 14: things like that. There's no doubt it's going to be

763
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 14: pretty easy for Disney to be a good stock to own.

764
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 14: I think the real question marks in their business are

765
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 14: the brand is associated with magic and the and if

766
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 14: the brand loses that magical luster, the question is do

767
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:57,359
Speaker 14: you want to own the stock short term?

768
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 3: But do consumers want to own the product long term?

769
00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 14: So I think all the question marks around Disney have

770
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 14: to do with the price points for Disneyland are literally insane.

771
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 14: And if you remove magic as part of the value proposition,

772
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:14,800
Speaker 14: is any our people still.

773
00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 3: Don't want to pay that? It's becoming a huge question

774
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 3: Mark all.

775
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:19,560
Speaker 1: Right, Mark, thanks very much. We always appreciate getting a

776
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 1: couple of minutes of your time. We can talk to

777
00:38:21,160 --> 00:38:24,960
Speaker 1: anything on the media technology space. Mark Douglas, President and

778
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: CEO of Mountain kind of getting the latest on what's

779
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,759
Speaker 1: going on at Twitter with Elon Musk and Linda Yakarino,

780
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 1: leaving NBC Universal going over some big changes in the

781
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 1: ad space.

782
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape. Catch a our live program

783
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:41,040
Speaker 6: Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

784
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 6: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg

785
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 6: Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa

786
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,399
Speaker 6: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play

787
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:51,840
Speaker 6: Bloomberg eleven thirty.

788
00:38:53,280 --> 00:39:00,760
Speaker 1: All right, kids, e SG Environmental Sustainability and Governance ESG.

789
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 1: I'm all down with that. I learned this before you

790
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: guys even knew what it was. You're like, I know,

791
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 1: you know, I was over in meeting investors in Paris.

792
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: I don't know ten eleven twelve years ago and I

793
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 1: was talking pitching Disney or something like that.

794
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 9: So how are they on ESG? And I'm like, what

795
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 9: what is ESG? Mickey Mouse? Yeah, I mean it's Mickey Mouse.

796
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 9: I mean, how do you know what ESG is? But

797
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:23,280
Speaker 9: now I know? Okay, it's big.

798
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: A lot of money being allocated to research, to funds

799
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 1: that focus on ESG and incorporate that into their investment process.

800
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 1: It's a global situation, at global issue. That's why Bloomberg

801
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 1: Intelligence has twenty analysts assigned to all aspects of ESG research.

802
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 1: Sheeting contractor ESG research channel. She's our fave, She's a

803
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. All right, some stuff going on here. You

804
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 1: have to explain what Article nine is and why do

805
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 1: I care about it? Or why do ESG investors care

806
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:53,720
Speaker 1: about it?

807
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 15: So both Addicle nine funds are a European designation. Basically

808
00:39:57,320 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 15: they represent the most sustained I guess for the lack

809
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 15: of better words. And what happened is a lot of

810
00:40:04,280 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 15: them got downgraded, maybe towards Q four of last year

811
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:12,160
Speaker 15: because basically the regulators went and said, you know, sustained

812
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 15: and investing criteria very specific and have to be one

813
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 15: hundred percent of the fund. So everybody you know uproard

814
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,480
Speaker 15: and then reclassified down and now they've listened to christeria.

815
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 15: So we'll see what happens.

816
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:26,320
Speaker 12: So what does that mean for ESG investing in? People

817
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 12: who are you know, like my friends who are like

818
00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 12: I kind of want to invest in ESG in they

819
00:40:33,080 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 12: do what they do through like laves or something like

820
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 12: we don't know what we're doing, you know. So what

821
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:38,759
Speaker 12: does this mean my.

822
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:42,840
Speaker 1: Friends are rolling over two month tea bills?

823
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:44,440
Speaker 9: I don't know.

824
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 15: So I don't think it really means much. I mean,

825
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 15: all it means is it is going from a MORI

826
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 15: yes she category to a Lesia she category. Is just

827
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,640
Speaker 15: interchanging between the do nothing about the holdings are changing.

828
00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 15: I think what's really interesting this year is how we

829
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 15: I saw a lot of fund liquidations, a lot of them.

830
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 15: So that's really picked up in the US, and I

831
00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 15: feel like that's going to be exasperated a little bit

832
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 15: by the political backlash. So now I feel like people

833
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 15: have this bleak view of future asset gathering capabilities. So

834
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 15: while I don't think, you know, assets decreased because of

835
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:24,200
Speaker 15: the political backshog, I think it's going to exasperate the slowdown,

836
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,280
Speaker 15: Cosmo liquidations, all that fun stuff.

837
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: So the ESG investing, to me, it seems to have

838
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 1: in terms of popularity, intensity, capital peaked and now's on

839
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 1: the decline. In the US, that's just my so you

840
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 1: can correct me if I'm wrong. But boy, not in Europe.

841
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 9: So why is Europe different from the US, or why

842
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 9: is US different from Europe?

843
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:49,759
Speaker 15: I think the US has gotten I guess caught a

844
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 15: little bit in the political backlash. First of all, yes,

845
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 15: she was, you know, very much a big institutional thing.

846
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 15: So it was a few big institutions putting large chunks

847
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:01,359
Speaker 15: of money into eu SHE funds. It never really caught

848
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:06,320
Speaker 15: on beyond that. In Europe it sort of has always

849
00:42:06,360 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 15: continued because there's favorable regulations. So in the US now

850
00:42:10,280 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 15: what's happened is because of this political backlash, I feel like, no,

851
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:17,319
Speaker 15: but that investor base that was institutional, it's going to

852
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 15: not expand or is going to be restricted from expanding,

853
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:22,839
Speaker 15: So it's going to continue to cause a slow down,

854
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:25,280
Speaker 15: whereas Europe does not have that problem.

855
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:25,839
Speaker 6: I can't.

856
00:42:25,960 --> 00:42:29,720
Speaker 1: So does that reduce the incentive for companies to pursue

857
00:42:30,160 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 1: ESG policies? If they're not going to get support from

858
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 1: their shareholders and creditors and things like that.

859
00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 15: I think more than that regulators, right, the regulators are

860
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,000
Speaker 15: going to push down on the investors, like what's happening

861
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,359
Speaker 15: in Florida from you know, they're going to restrict them

862
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 15: from doing ESG analysis or launching green bondes. I think

863
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:50,359
Speaker 15: something like that. So I think the regulators are going

864
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 15: to cause more of that shift.

865
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 12: And what about the moves from the Biden administration, like

866
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:58,239
Speaker 12: the IRA is that a sufficient heage against some of that?

867
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 15: So that's very clean deck and clean energy focused. I

868
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,879
Speaker 15: kind of separate ESG and clean energy, right, Like that's

869
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:08,880
Speaker 15: clean energy is a theme, it's a it's more of

870
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:12,279
Speaker 15: like a very small subset. Es SHE is very like

871
00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 15: broad risks and opportunities, values based things like that. So

872
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 15: while that you know, supported clean energy and will support

873
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 15: it in the long term, yes, she's different all right.

874
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:27,600
Speaker 1: So for ESG on one side, I've got some conservative politicians.

875
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 1: On the other side, I've got people like Larry Fink,

876
00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 1: a black rock who's all in ESG right, and he's

877
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:35,800
Speaker 1: got a couple of shekels under management.

878
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,360
Speaker 9: I mean, who wins this battle?

879
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 15: Do you think, Oh, I don't know, no idea, no idea.

880
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 15: So what we're hearing from like short lived.

881
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,760
Speaker 1: But how about a state like California, They're still all

882
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 1: in from a pension fund perspective, like we get you know,

883
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 1: we'll support companies and investment strategies that incorporate ESG.

884
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 15: Yeah, so you have a very big divide like you have.

885
00:43:56,520 --> 00:43:58,760
Speaker 15: On one hand, I feel like within the same week,

886
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 15: the Chicago Bench Fund decided to drop fossil fuels, and

887
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 15: the same week Vanguard Exit exited the net zero Asset Alliance.

888
00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 9: It was a Vanguard exited the net.

889
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:12,799
Speaker 15: Zero Asset Managers Alliance. So yeah, okay, And at the

890
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:16,279
Speaker 15: same time Chicago went and decided to exclude fossil fuels.

891
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 15: So you're seeing a very two sided sort of America

892
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 15: or for lack of a better dollar.

893
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 9: Oh yeah.

894
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:23,919
Speaker 12: So what does this look like as we head into

895
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 12: the rest of the year after all of like the

896
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 12: banking turmoil, the Bobe debt ceiling issue, what's next?

897
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:31,320
Speaker 15: So I think for us for DSG, it's a it's

898
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 15: a combination of a continued slowdown because, like I said,

899
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,840
Speaker 15: we had a very concentrated investor base. What we needed

900
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 15: to see is that widen Will this stop the widening?

901
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 15: Probably we might see cyclicality again. You know, large investors

902
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 15: put large chunks of money, so suddenly like a one

903
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 15: up and then suddenly a one down. So either cyclicality

904
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 15: or a little bit of a slowdown, at least in

905
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 15: the US.

906
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 1: And it's funny because I spoke to Tim Craighead, who

907
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: part of our management team running Bloomberg Intelligence in London,

908
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 1: and he was just traveling through.

909
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:05,240
Speaker 9: The Nordic countries. Wow, that's all they talk about.

910
00:45:05,360 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 15: Yeah, well they've ever talked that.

911
00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 9: That's all they talked about. I mean, you go to

912
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 9: Nordis Bank.

913
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 1: Which is, you know, one of the biggest sovereign wealth

914
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:15,800
Speaker 1: funds in the world. I mean, if you're not super green,

915
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,560
Speaker 1: they're not investing in so body.

916
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 15: You asked me what was different about Europe. That's also

917
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:23,800
Speaker 15: another thing that's really different about Europe. Right, your ascid

918
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 15: owners threw it down your throat. The US doesn't do

919
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 15: that so much. And the asset owners, I don't feel

920
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 15: like they control so much of the market. Then the

921
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 15: European asset owners.

922
00:45:34,080 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 9: It's funny because how did Norway make all their money oil?

923
00:45:38,120 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 14: Right?

924
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 12: Well, that's what's interesting too. We had a guest on

925
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 12: the Business Week show recently who had a very contrarian esgview.

926
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 12: He basically said that you could argue that some of

927
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:50,879
Speaker 12: the oil companies are an ESG investment because someday they're

928
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 12: going to switch to clean energy.

929
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 15: That's completely true. So I wouldn't say energy or oil

930
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 15: is bad, and you know, something like deck is good.

931
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 15: I think it's all relative to the business of the

932
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,239
Speaker 15: company and what they're doing. Like not just Bank excluded

933
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:09,080
Speaker 15: oil companies from the entire portfolio, not due to ESG reasons.

934
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 15: They wanted to diversify their bension fund because their economy

935
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 15: is so dependent.

936
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 13: There you go.

937
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:17,959
Speaker 15: So they're very different reasons for doing different things.

938
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 1: All right, But Bloomberg Intelligence has allocated a lot of

939
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 1: resources to all things at ESG and believe that's a big,

940
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 1: big future here. So Sheen Contractor, thanks so much for

941
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:33,440
Speaker 1: joining us. Shaheen Contractor. She is the ESG research analyst

942
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Intelligence. She joins us live in a Bloomberg

943
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 1: Interactor broker studio on a Friday. I will note so

944
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 1: like double gold star for Shaheen, no Melanie and no

945
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:44,760
Speaker 1: work from home for Shaheen.

946
00:46:47,440 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

947
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:54,360
Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

948
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter

949
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.

950
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 9: And I'm Fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.

951
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:05,880
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at

952
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio