WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Bill Smead & Jennifer Lawless

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single, best idea and

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<v Speaker 1>thank you for listening. We try to keep this short

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<v Speaker 1>six minutes Longer podcast twenty minutes, Good Girls, Girls Podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>It's a wonderful produced twenty minutes and David Gurra there

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<v Speaker 1>with this important discussion of his conversation with Janet Yellen

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<v Speaker 1>over the weekend in Texas. We do a shorter thing

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<v Speaker 1>you can slip in among your other podcasts listening. We

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<v Speaker 1>we're on Bloomberg originals. I didn't know this until the

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<v Speaker 1>other day, all the distribution opportunities. There's a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>good conversations. One of them today was William Speed. You

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<v Speaker 1>probably don't know the name. Bill Smead is iconic out

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<v Speaker 1>of Washington State, Seattle, now in Phoenix, and when you

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<v Speaker 1>look it is three year and five year track record

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<v Speaker 1>of investing, it gives pause. He's a value investor. He

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<v Speaker 1>buys straw hats in winter. As mister Baruch said, in

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<v Speaker 1>the last year, he's been buried. But he struggled with

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<v Speaker 1>growthiness because he doesn't own Apple, he doesn't own Nvidia.

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<v Speaker 1>He owns stuff out of favor. Bill smeaed on patience

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<v Speaker 1>in investing.

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<v Speaker 2>We were arguing that interest rates would normalize at some

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<v Speaker 2>point in time, and people would say, Bill, when's that

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<v Speaker 2>going to happen? And I'd say, well, you can't hold

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<v Speaker 2>your breath till then. Well, the same thing happens on

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<v Speaker 2>the euphoric side in common stocks. It might be six months,

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<v Speaker 2>it might be a year, but when it hits it's

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<v Speaker 2>so quick. I mean, remember how fast the Fed raised rates.

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<v Speaker 2>They went from a quarter to five and a quarter

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<v Speaker 2>in a year. It was the biggest interest rate increase

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<v Speaker 2>in a year. And if you weren't ready for it,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, you got caught by it. Well, the same

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<v Speaker 2>thing will happen in the equity market. In other words,

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<v Speaker 2>Buffett used to talk about it being like Cinderella at

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<v Speaker 2>the ball. You've been told that at midnight the clock

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<v Speaker 2>of strategy.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Bill Smeede with us, there a smed capital in

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<v Speaker 1>Phoenix value investor very much in energy stocks right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Every once in a while, someone dereks the door. I

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<v Speaker 1>think a Betsy Stevens said at ann Arbor, who absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>owns the thinking carefully about the economics and finance and

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<v Speaker 1>policy of divorce. Betsy's last conversation with us was absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>riveting about childcare. Someone else that owns a high ground

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<v Speaker 1>here is Jennifer Lawless. She's at the University of Virginia,

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<v Speaker 1>and she's made an absolute cottage industry out of studying

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<v Speaker 1>women in American politics. And you know, you ask her

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<v Speaker 1>the usual question why we had a female president like

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<v Speaker 1>in other countries, sort of just understood and her core theme,

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<v Speaker 1>this is really important. Her core theme is the ambition

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<v Speaker 1>to get into politics to begin with. She's focused much

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<v Speaker 1>more not a way I should say, she's focused much

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<v Speaker 1>more away from presidential decision making and much more to

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<v Speaker 1>state and local community politics. Jennifer Lawless, University of Virginia.

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<v Speaker 3>The real answer is that there just haven't been enough

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<v Speaker 3>female candidates to do it. So, first of all, it

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<v Speaker 3>is important to remember that Hillary Clinton received more popular

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<v Speaker 3>votes than Donald Trump did, so it's not that Americans

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<v Speaker 3>aren't willing to vote for a woman. Now, obviously we

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<v Speaker 3>left our president through the electoral college, so winning the

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<v Speaker 3>popular vote didn't, but public opinion was on her side.

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<v Speaker 3>But that's really been the only opportunity that the American

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<v Speaker 3>people have had until heading into election day this year

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<v Speaker 3>to cast a ballot for a female president. When it

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<v Speaker 3>comes to Congress, when it comes to state legislatures, gubernatorial elections,

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<v Speaker 3>women do just as well as men. The key is

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<v Speaker 3>that they need to run in the first place.

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<v Speaker 1>Course of debate tonight, Balance of Power, Joe Matthew, Katie Lyones,

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<v Speaker 1>David Girl are really focused on Philadelphia. You'll see that

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<v Speaker 1>over the next twenty four or even forty eight hours.

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