1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 2: As we head now to New Hampshire, less than a 6 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 2: week off, and there are new numbers today, it's getting 7 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,119 Speaker 2: pretty noisy, you know. We talked to David Paleologos last 8 00:00:22,120 --> 00:00:24,680 Speaker 2: week from Suffolk University and they're out with new numbers 9 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 2: this morning. They are not tied as we talked yesterday. 10 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 2: Donald Trump gets fifty percent in this poll, Nicky Haley 11 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 2: thirty four percent. Bron DeSantis has all of five percent 12 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 2: in New Hampshire. So it is looking like at two 13 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 2: way race in the Granite State, but also a runaway 14 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:46,440 Speaker 2: win potentially once again for Donald Trump. And the question 15 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 2: is what will happen if there is a gap like that. 16 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 2: Knowing that expectations are very high for Nicky Haley, remember 17 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 2: this ARC poll yesterday arg has Trump forty, Hayley forty. 18 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 2: That's a pretty different story than what we have here. 19 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 2: And what is a survey of five hundred likely Republican 20 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 2: primary voters jan fifteen, Jan sixteen, the day and day 21 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 2: after the Iowa CAUCUSUS. So you wonder if these numbers 22 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 2: are moving based on that commanding win that we saw 23 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 2: from Donald Trump, that race that was called so early. 24 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 2: I'll back up a little bit further here to Emerson 25 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:27,399 Speaker 2: College's most recent poll, which is interesting because this brings 26 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 2: you back to the eleventh and it was a bit 27 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 2: of a different picture, which is why we wanted to 28 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 2: talk about this with the polling director at Emerson, Spencer Kimball. 29 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:36,680 Speaker 2: He's with us right now. Spencer. It's great to see 30 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 2: you and we welcome you. Has the landscape shifted in 31 00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 2: New Hampshire since Iowa, Well, we're. 32 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:45,479 Speaker 3: Going to see that over the next couple of days. 33 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 3: But at this time, it looks like Trump still holds 34 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 3: a double digit lead and Hailey is the alternative. DeSantis 35 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 3: is where he was before Iowa, So it doesn't look 36 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 3: like that second place finish out there really gave him 37 00:01:59,000 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 3: much of a bump. 38 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 2: Yet at the time, Wow, that's something else. Our expectations 39 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 2: too high for Nikki Haley to be able to call 40 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 2: this a win. The idea was if she struck within 41 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 2: single digits, maybe even one, this thing that she'd be 42 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 2: having new momentum that could carry her into South Carolina 43 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 2: to make a difference. But it's feeling less like that, 44 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 2: isn't it. 45 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 3: It sure is. I think the big win she needed 46 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 3: was out in Iowa to get that second place show. 47 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,360 Speaker 3: She didn't get there, came up a little bit short, 48 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 3: and now she's in New Hampshire, and I think you 49 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 3: got it. She's got to win New Hampshire in order 50 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 3: to really become a player to win the nomination, because 51 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 3: if you look forward, as you mentioned, South Carolina's at 52 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,400 Speaker 3: the end of February where she's trailing by twenty twenty 53 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:41,919 Speaker 3: five points, but that is her home state, so maybe 54 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 3: she can rally some support at the last minute. But 55 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 3: then you got to go to Texas and California for 56 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 3: Super Tuesday, and she's trailing out there by over fifty 57 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 3: points against Trump. So even if she was able to 58 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 3: get over a couple of these hurdles, there's a big 59 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 3: wall coming on Super Tuesday that she's going to have 60 00:02:57,919 --> 00:02:58,399 Speaker 3: to get through. 61 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 2: I mentioned your last poll of jen you were eleven 62 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:04,679 Speaker 2: that had Donald Trump at forty four percent in New Hampshire, 63 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 2: followed by Haley at twenty eight who was up ten 64 00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 2: points since November. Do you think that momentum has gone. 65 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:14,960 Speaker 3: Then, yeah, it has slowed. So we've seen Trump's numbers 66 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:18,079 Speaker 3: drop over the course of the year. Basically he was 67 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 3: up in the sixties, then down in the fifties. Now 68 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 3: we have him in the mid forties going into Iowa. 69 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 3: If you look at that Suffolk poll today, it looks 70 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 3: like he actually gets a bump out of Iowa. Their 71 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 3: previous poll had him at forty six. We had him 72 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 3: at forty four, Now they have him at fifty, So 73 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 3: I would presume our numbers would go up. I think 74 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 3: the biggest difference though, is the two candidates that have 75 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,720 Speaker 3: dropped out since our poll. You have Chris Christy, who 76 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 3: is more in the Haley lane where those voters would 77 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,440 Speaker 3: split in that direction. But then you had Ramaswami, who 78 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 3: was actually beating DeSantis at that point when he's dropped out, 79 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 3: and those votes are probably going to line up more 80 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 3: with Trump. So there looks like there's some room for 81 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 3: Haley to gain a little ground between those two. But 82 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 3: based on what Suffolk put out today and what we've 83 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 3: been seeing, she's got definitely a lot of room to 84 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 3: make up. 85 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 2: Pretty amazing as we spend time with Spencer Kimball, who 86 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 2: runs polling at Emerson College, my alma mater. If I'm 87 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 2: supposed to have disclose that Spencer. Nikki Haley says she's 88 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 2: not going to debate again unless Donald Trump shows up. 89 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 2: And ABC News and WMU are an important station in 90 00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 2: New Hampshire, have canceled their debate ahead of the primaries, 91 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 2: and I don't think Donald Trump's about to show up. 92 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 2: Ron de Santis said he'd be happy to debate two 93 00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 2: empty chairs, and I guess he's not going to have 94 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 2: that opportunity. Is this important? Does it matter anymore? Has 95 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 2: Donald Trump taught us that debates don't matter? 96 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 3: Well, I hope not. I think they do matter. And 97 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,160 Speaker 3: I think it was a mistake for Haley to drop 98 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 3: out of this debate. If you look at these numbers 99 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 3: where she's trailing, she needs a bit of a game changer, 100 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 3: and for her to be able to go on stage 101 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 3: with DeSantis, even though he's in single digits out here, 102 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 3: it would still give her some sort of platform to 103 00:04:58,240 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 3: be able to make the case to the New Hampshire 104 00:04:59,880 --> 00:05:03,159 Speaker 3: vo that might get people to focus in now. Granted, 105 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 3: their debate before IOWA had lower ratings than expected, So 106 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 3: maybe that goes into the equation. But without a debate 107 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 3: or some focusing event, it's hard to imagine what's going to, 108 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 3: you know, change the momentum. If she had come out 109 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 3: of Iowa in second place, I think that's a different story. 110 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 3: But without that second place, when where does that momentum 111 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 3: where's you know, start pushing her in the you know, 112 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,360 Speaker 3: in the back as opposed to blowing in her face 113 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 3: at this time. 114 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 2: Well, Spencer, a lot of eyes were rolling where they 115 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 2: heard from both Nicky Haley and Ronda Santis the night 116 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 2: of the Iowa caucus. I'm sure you saw these speeches. 117 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 2: Rond de Santis with the rock and roll It's got 118 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 2: a C d C play, and Ia the Tiger. He says, 119 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 2: we punched our ticket coming out of Iowa. People went crazy. 120 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 2: Nicky Haley said that this is now a one on 121 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 2: one race, a two candidate race between her and Donald 122 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 2: Trump because she won one of ninety nine counties in Iowa. 123 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 2: Do both of them need a reality check or are 124 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 2: they about to get one? In New Hampshire? 125 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 3: Well, certainly, I think Governor DeSantis is going to get 126 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,279 Speaker 3: a reality check if he comes in single digits in 127 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 3: New Hampshire. Plus you know he's got to fight in 128 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 3: South Carolina next. He doesn't have Florida coming up that 129 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:14,359 Speaker 3: might be a firewall, though he in the polling is 130 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:17,160 Speaker 3: trailing in Florida by thirty points to the former president. 131 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,359 Speaker 3: So I was surprised by those. I thought it was 132 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 3: an opportunity for DeSantis to kind of take the high road, 133 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 3: come in second above expectations and walk off the stage 134 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 3: at that time, because look what's coming ahead of him 135 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 3: in New Hampshire or South Carolina. Hailey, on the other hand, 136 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,599 Speaker 3: I think had already had pre planned speech for her 137 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 3: performance in Iowa and should have pivoted a little bit 138 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:44,320 Speaker 3: based on the results. But without that, she's now looking 139 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:47,039 Speaker 3: at this as at least in New Hampshire and probably 140 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 3: South Carolina, it is a two person race, but she's 141 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,359 Speaker 3: trailing by fifteen points, which in politics, as we know, 142 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 3: is a considerable margin to make up. 143 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 2: Well, what do you make of the whole last minute 144 00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 2: thing in New Hampshire. Not to mention the unpredictable nature 145 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 2: of forty percent independent showing up coming from different corners 146 00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 2: of the state can create some noise here. Obviously, there's 147 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 2: almost a week left of campaigning, more town halls, more 148 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 2: door knocking. Do you think that these numbers could move. 149 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that there is. The window is slightly 150 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 3: cracked for Nicki Haley if you look at the road ahead, 151 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 3: but it's a crack. You know. Donald Trump is walking 152 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 3: through a garage door at this point for the nomination. 153 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 3: Lots of space for him to make up and to 154 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 3: continue to grow his delegate count. So at some point 155 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 3: you don't want it to boomerang on Haley, who's run 156 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 3: a really well primary member She was in single digits. 157 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 3: She's picked up twenty four points in New Hampshire in 158 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,240 Speaker 3: the last seven eight months, so you can see that 159 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 3: she has run a good campaign. But if she stays 160 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 3: in it too long, she might upset the base of 161 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:51,560 Speaker 3: the party and could hurt her chances if she was 162 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 3: to run again in twenty. 163 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 2: Eight Fascinating stuff here. All the while, Donald Trump maybe 164 00:07:57,280 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 2: going through a garage door. I think that's what you said. 165 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 2: It was a courtroom door or yesterday, and he's going 166 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 2: to be back today a jury selection of the case 167 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 2: of Egene Carrol. Not I think what you would describe 168 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 2: as a positive story for any candidate yet he continues 169 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 2: to spend a majority of his time in courtrooms as 170 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 2: opposed to early states, and his numbers keep rising. Should 171 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 2: Dicky Haley and Rond de Santis try to get indicted 172 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 2: at this point, Spencer. 173 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 3: Well, that's generally not the traditional ways canidates to get attention. 174 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 3: But in this day and age, things that were up 175 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 3: or down, and you know, backwards is forwards. So no, 176 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 3: I wouldn't encourage that type of behavior. I think that 177 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 3: they kind of need to be looking more big picture 178 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 3: and think about maybe it's not twenty four is their year, 179 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 3: Maybe twenty twenty eight is their year when we know 180 00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 3: that most likely it's an open seat. And so while 181 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 3: you want to get things lined up right now and 182 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 3: to win now, there is that big picture to consider 183 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 3: for both of them. 184 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 2: Glad we got some time together, Spencer Kibble. Are you 185 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 2: going to be in New Hampshire when we're there next 186 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,200 Speaker 2: week or are you running numbers from Boston? 187 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:02,559 Speaker 3: Oh? No, they sent me up to Manchester. I was 188 00:09:02,600 --> 00:09:03,680 Speaker 3: out and I as well. 189 00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:04,320 Speaker 4: It was cold. 190 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 2: Oh come on, how did you get home? I'm still 191 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 2: trying to get home. I'll tell you what. 192 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 3: Chicago at seven in the morning. 193 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 2: All right, So we understand each other. Let's meet up 194 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 2: in Manchester. Let's have you come on from the primary 195 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:18,559 Speaker 2: and I look forward to seeing you there. 196 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: Spencer. 197 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 3: That's great. Well see and we'll have a new poll 198 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 3: at the end of the week. 199 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 2: When is that on Friday Sunday? We use all right, perfect, 200 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 2: keep us posted. I look forward to it. It we'll 201 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 2: have late numbers from Spencer Kimball. Thank you, sir, Emerson 202 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,320 Speaker 2: College polling director. With us here on Bloomberg's sound on 203 00:09:33,400 --> 00:09:36,160 Speaker 2: as we assembled the panel. They made it home. Rick 204 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 2: Davis and Geenie Shanzano fresh off the Iowa caucuses and 205 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 2: on your radio and on YouTube with us now are 206 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics signature panel. And boy, this is interesting here. Genie. 207 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 2: I'm not sure your thoughts on these new polls, but 208 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 2: it looks like Nicky Haley may have peaked in New Hampshire. 209 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 2: Is that how you're reading it? Yeah? 210 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:57,960 Speaker 4: First of all, Joe Matthew, it is great to see you, 211 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 4: and I hope you make it home. You have and 212 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 4: killing it out there trying to get home. It's like 213 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 4: plain strains and autumn it is. 214 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 2: I'm looking for John Candy. I haven't found him yet, 215 00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 2: but you just got home yourself, so I think you 216 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 2: know what we're going for. 217 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 4: You just got home and warmed up. You know, I 218 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 4: think this thing does seem to be Donald Trump did 219 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 4: get a bump out of Iowa as we look at 220 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 4: New Hampshire. But I would just preface all of this 221 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 4: by saying New Hampshire, as I am sure all of 222 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:28,880 Speaker 4: our posters can tell us, is notoriously hard to pull. 223 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 4: And so that is one caveat I would put to 224 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:33,800 Speaker 4: looking out all these numbers. Just look at the Senate 225 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 4: race in twenty twenty two. They had enormous challenges. They 226 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 4: were off by eight to twelve points. Tough place to pull. 227 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,439 Speaker 4: Putting that aside, I do think that both Trump and 228 00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 4: Nicky Haley are getting something of a bump out of it. 229 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 4: But in my mind, as we look at New Hampshire overall, 230 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 4: I can see this as a case where winning for 231 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 4: Nicky Haley is actually losing if she wins on the 232 00:10:56,840 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 4: backs of independence. And that's the thing I think we 233 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:01,920 Speaker 4: have to keep in mind, because Donald Trump will come 234 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 4: right back and he will make Hay out of that 235 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:09,559 Speaker 4: and make her into the poster child of the never trumpers. 236 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 4: And that is a thing strategy for her. 237 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting, Rick Davis, because I think we can 238 00:11:14,160 --> 00:11:16,720 Speaker 2: argue that John McCain made his way to the nomination 239 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:20,079 Speaker 2: on the backs of independence. But we're in a different 240 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 2: world now, aren't we. 241 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, the party's a little different. I mean, it's a 242 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 5: little more polarization. It gets worse every year. But I 243 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 5: would say, I mean, you know, if Donald Trump would 244 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 5: be willing to give up all the independents that are 245 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 5: voting for him, and in the recent arg poll it shows, 246 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 5: let me see, as many as twenty four percent of 247 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 5: his base going in there on his vote is independent. 248 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 5: So now Haley appeals to fifty one percent, so he's 249 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:50,520 Speaker 5: losing badly in that category. But I'm not sure he's 250 00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 5: going to take a quarter of his vote and say 251 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:54,319 Speaker 5: go what. So I think people have to be a 252 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 5: little cautious about complaining about independence in New Hampshire. And 253 00:11:57,520 --> 00:12:00,640 Speaker 5: we do know that South Carolina allows it's an open 254 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 5: primary state. I was independence vote there, and you know, 255 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,720 Speaker 5: I'm sure Haley's like, go ahead, you know, throw that punch, 256 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 5: piss off all those independence in South Carolina before we 257 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 5: get there. So it's not as easy as what he 258 00:12:14,160 --> 00:12:18,160 Speaker 5: was able to make it out to be in Iowa 259 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 5: because really it's a much more conservative state than any 260 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:23,199 Speaker 5: of them that they're going to play in between now 261 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 5: and Super Tuesday. 262 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:29,440 Speaker 2: Genie the Hailey super Pac SFA Fund Catchy is up 263 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 2: with a new anti Trump ad campaign. They're framing him 264 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 2: as a bully and a liar. The line is Trump 265 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 2: is lying about Nicky. That's what bullies do. Is that 266 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 2: the right message for the closing week? 267 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 3: Yeah? 268 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 4: I think it's the right message. They've got to get 269 00:12:44,720 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 4: the independence out to vote. And when you compare to Iowa, 270 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 4: sixteen percent of those Iowa caucus goers saw themselves as independent, 271 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:54,560 Speaker 4: it's close to half in a New Hampshire primary where 272 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 4: Democrats aren't playing. So she's got to make that case, 273 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 4: and I think she could have a very good night 274 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 4: in New Hampshire potentially on the backs of that kind 275 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,280 Speaker 4: of spending, that kind of organization, and that kind of. 276 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 2: Argument, all the while Donald Trump in court and poised 277 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 2: to win another We'll see. We're not making predictions here, 278 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 2: but the polls out today would suggest that this could 279 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 2: be an interesting contest in New Hampshire. And we'll have 280 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 2: a lot more on this. This is Bloomberg. 281 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 282 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 283 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,439 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 284 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 285 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 286 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 2: As we consider what's going on in New Hampshire or 287 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 2: not going on leading up to the New Hampshire primary, 288 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 2: there'll be no debate. There was supposed to be on 289 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 2: more ABC News and WMUIR. We talked about it a 290 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 2: bit earlier with Spencer Kimball from Emerson Polling. Nikki Haley, 291 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 2: taking a cue from Donald Trump, says she's not going 292 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:12,720 Speaker 2: to go unless he does. And ron De Santis, who 293 00:14:12,760 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 2: was looking forward to sharing time with two empty chairs, 294 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 2: says she's making the wrong move. Here's Ronda Santis in 295 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 2: New Hampshire. 296 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 6: You owe the people of New Hampshire a debate. This 297 00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 6: is a time honored tradition that you debate in New 298 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 6: Hampshire the week before the New Hampshire primary. So I 299 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 6: plan on being there on Thursday. I understand why she 300 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 6: doesn't want to debate and yes, Donald Trump should debate 301 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 6: as well, But either way, I'm going to be there, and. 302 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 2: So I hope both of them come. You can plan 303 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:46,000 Speaker 2: on it all he wants. They canceled it. As we 304 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 2: reassemble our panel with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzy o 305 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors. You know the line, Rick, People in 306 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 2: New Hampshire don't only expect to meet all the candidates. 307 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 2: They judge them by how many times they get to 308 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 2: meet them, how many times they shake their hands. And boy, 309 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 2: I don't know the impact of this. DoD debates not 310 00:15:04,800 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 2: matter anymore in a place like New Hampshire. Did Nicky 311 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 2: Haley make the right move here? 312 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's hard to tell. Donald Trump already upset the 313 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 5: debate Apple Car a long time ago. Right, we haven't 314 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 5: had a debate with the front runner in it, and 315 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 5: so maybe voters have become desensitized to the fact that 316 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:26,120 Speaker 5: you're just not going to see a legitimate Republican debate 317 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 5: where all the contestants are there. And I have absolutely 318 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,840 Speaker 5: no doubt my own judgment that the debates have actually 319 00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 5: hurt the undercard, right, I mean, by debating each other, 320 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 5: they have actually diminished their own candidacies amongst each other 321 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 5: and elevated Trump's. And the fact is, other than Chris Christy, 322 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 5: nobody really attacked Donald Trump in these debates. So he's 323 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 5: had a real free hand at this thing. And so 324 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 5: I think Nicki Haley look at out for he own 325 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 5: self interest, looks at the debate with a candidate who's 326 00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 5: got less than five percent, probably round five. That's simply 327 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 5: a bad political decision to make, getting on a stage 328 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 5: with someone who literally cannot beat you, but will spend 329 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 5: the entire debate, as he did in the last one, 330 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 5: attacking you over and over and over. 331 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 2: Right, Well, that sounds like Donald Trump's argument, Jeanie, are 332 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 2: we done with old fashioned debates? Or is this just 333 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:18,960 Speaker 2: a symptom of this cycle. 334 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 4: I think it's a symptom that this cycle. I hope 335 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 4: it is. I know people who are going to attend 336 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:28,479 Speaker 4: that debate, young people, I should say, their first presidential 337 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 4: primary debate. They were excited to do that in New Hampshire. 338 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 4: It's been taken away from them. Even Trump supporters have 339 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 4: said that they do wish he was on that stage 340 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 4: just so they could see him. That said, you know, 341 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 4: I think Nicky Haley, if I was advising her. I 342 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 4: would say it's the right decision. She got a lot 343 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 4: of support coming out of those first you know, three 344 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:53,640 Speaker 4: four debates, but quite frankly, in that last debate, she 345 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 4: didn't really help herself that much. And it doesn't make 346 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 4: a lot of sense for her to go there and 347 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:04,400 Speaker 4: get beat up by Ron DeSantis, who's essentially doing Trump's 348 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,639 Speaker 4: dirty work. Because the thing to keep in mind is 349 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 4: that what Donald Trump. As conciliatory as he was the 350 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 4: few minutes after the Iowa win, six hours later, he 351 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:18,879 Speaker 4: was taking to truth social calling her Nimroda, and he 352 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 4: was also showing these pictures of her morphing into Hillary Clinton. 353 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 4: He is going to say, even if she wins big 354 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 4: in New Hampshire, she isn't winning amongst Republicans. She's winning 355 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 4: on the backs of independence and the big bad media, 356 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 4: and he is going to attack her for that. So 357 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 4: this is what she is facing. She needs to debate him, 358 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 4: not Ron DeSantis. And she knows that. 359 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:44,400 Speaker 2: What did he call her? 360 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:48,320 Speaker 4: I shouldn't repeat it. It nimroda, nim rod. 361 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,880 Speaker 2: That's a new one. I haven't gosh, we're testing out 362 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 2: new names, I guess for Donald Trump. What do you 363 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 2: make of this sort of last minute framing here, Rick, 364 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,640 Speaker 2: this is the way he turned on Vivik Ramaswami going 365 00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:05,400 Speaker 2: into Iowa. Not that he's had nice things to say 366 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 2: about his former ambassador, but some think that she might 367 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 2: even be vying for a vice presidential role here. Does 368 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 2: that still remain a possibility? You know? 369 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 5: I mean, I've never met a presidential candidate in forty 370 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,720 Speaker 5: years who conducted their campaign in order to be the 371 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:28,399 Speaker 5: vice presidential candidate. Especially at this point where you've crossed 372 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 5: so many bridges and you've spent so much money, and 373 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:33,239 Speaker 5: you've committed so much your time. You're looking for that 374 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:36,560 Speaker 5: brass ring, and at this point, everybody in this race 375 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:39,239 Speaker 5: believes they have a way to get it, and so 376 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,360 Speaker 5: I think all of that is just chatter. I would say. 377 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 5: On the name thing, let's just be totally clear. This 378 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 5: was a birther attack on Nikki Hayley by Donald Trump 379 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:54,240 Speaker 5: on truth social It's her first name. He misspelled it, 380 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 5: which may have been intentional, and he's trying to draw 381 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:03,879 Speaker 5: people's attention to her ethnic heritage. And it's exactly what 382 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 5: he did to Barack Obama. And it should be absolutely 383 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 5: deplored because it is a way to interject racism into 384 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 5: the New Hampshire campaign. 385 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 2: Well, that seems to be a familiar place for him here, Genie, 386 00:19:19,640 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 2: how does that play in New Hampshire? 387 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:26,160 Speaker 4: Hopefully it doesn't play well anywhere. It's an ugly, ugly 388 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 4: thing that he has done and he continues to do. 389 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:33,479 Speaker 4: And I hope that the New Hampshire voters and voters 390 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,199 Speaker 4: across the country see it for the racist statement that 391 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,680 Speaker 4: it is. It is an ugly thing to say. But 392 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 4: the reality is these things have only helped Donald Trump 393 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:48,159 Speaker 4: with the magabase, and unfortunately for Republicans, the magabase is 394 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 4: pretty much where the party is now. We only need 395 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,960 Speaker 4: to look at the fact that senators and House members 396 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:58,879 Speaker 4: of the House keep endorsing him because they feel that 397 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,399 Speaker 4: they are threatened to be challenged. And so again, a 398 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:06,480 Speaker 4: win in New Hampshire for her, unless she finds a 399 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 4: way back into that Republican full a win on the 400 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,680 Speaker 4: backs of independence and Democrats or even one he can 401 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 4: describe that way, is going to make it very difficult 402 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 4: for her to go forward. She can go forward, but 403 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 4: it's gonna make it difficult for her. And let's not 404 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 4: forget Nikki Haley was endorsed in her gubernatorial race by 405 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 4: Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. She was able to cross that. 406 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 4: So if anybody can do it, it's her. But it 407 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 4: is a tough thing to do in the face of 408 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 4: a president who's really should be seen as an incumbent 409 00:20:37,520 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 4: and who really is willing to play dirty as he 410 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:42,879 Speaker 4: moves forward. She's up to the challenge, but it is 411 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 4: a big challenge for anybody to meet. 412 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:47,440 Speaker 2: You guys forced me onto the truth social I'm looking 413 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:51,680 Speaker 2: at this picture morphing her face into Hillary Clinton. It says, 414 00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,760 Speaker 2: Haley with the old Clinton logo and you get the 415 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 2: Clinton pants suit going here. It's nightmare fuel. I can't 416 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 2: look away from it. So bizarre, Rick Davis, what's going 417 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 2: on inside Nikki haley headquarters right now as they try 418 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 2: to take advantage of these remaining days. 419 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 5: Well for her, the focus is much like where they 420 00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:16,119 Speaker 5: were in Iowa at this point, the final sort of pitch. 421 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:20,719 Speaker 5: She's pushing the electability and how she can beat Biden 422 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 5: in a way that's significantly better for the GOP than 423 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 5: the claims of victory by Donald Trump. And they're worried 424 00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 5: about turnout right. I mean, there was a huge decrease 425 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:36,280 Speaker 5: in turnout in Iowa because of the storm, probably, but 426 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 5: certainly that's a good way to blame it. But almost 427 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 5: eighty thousand out of the one hundred and ten thousand, 428 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 5: I mean, the difference between them, seventy thousand people fewer 429 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 5: showed up in Iowa. And they need a turnout, They 430 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:54,199 Speaker 5: need people showing up. It's pretty clear a low turnout 431 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 5: helps Donald Trump. His base going to come no matter what. 432 00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,840 Speaker 5: And so I know that they're looking at sort of 433 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 5: how do they deliver that vote. And in a primary, 434 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 5: arguably it's a little easier without the incredibly cold weather, 435 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,159 Speaker 5: it should be easier. And so this is going to 436 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,400 Speaker 5: be a test really of whether or not she can 437 00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,920 Speaker 5: take the momentum that she has drive into the final 438 00:22:16,560 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 5: weekend of the election and identify her voters to turn out. 439 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 2: He knows because he's been there and he's done it. 440 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 2: Rick Davis, great analysis, along with Genie Shanzo, both of 441 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:27,440 Speaker 2: whom will be with us in New Hampshire. And I'll 442 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 2: tell you what, We're heading there this weekend. Wonderful. We'll 443 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 2: get back home from there at least it won't be 444 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 2: quite as cold as Rick said, and we'll have special 445 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 2: coverage straight through the process, the day of the primary 446 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 2: day and the day after here on Bloomberg's Sound On. 447 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 448 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,679 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 449 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 450 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:54,880 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 451 00:22:56,240 --> 00:22:59,719 Speaker 7: Considering the stakes in the game that's being played here, 452 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:03,119 Speaker 7: this idea that the President and even Republican Senate leaders 453 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:04,879 Speaker 7: like Mitch McConnell, who's one of the Big four that 454 00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 7: are going to be there, desperately want to get aid 455 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 7: for Ukraine through and are probably finding themselves pretty frustrated 456 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,679 Speaker 7: with the reticence on the part of the House and 457 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,439 Speaker 7: at least maybe willing to make a deal with the 458 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,080 Speaker 7: House on the border. I guess it's just a question 459 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 7: of how hard a line Mike Johnson is going to 460 00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 7: want to walk here. 461 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 2: That's true, and it's all happening against the backdrop of 462 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 2: this funding debate. I'm guessing we're not shutting down. Kale 463 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 2: I was making the point last hour. We've got all 464 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 2: the screens up on the wall here. You and I 465 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:31,960 Speaker 2: don't always have that in Washington, but all the you know, 466 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,240 Speaker 2: the TV screens are up here in the big fish 467 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 2: bowl studio. 468 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 7: You're in the fancy studio. 469 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,720 Speaker 2: Well, yours is pretty fancy too. But still I don't 470 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:44,560 Speaker 2: see any countdown clocks anywhere. That's nobody's taken this seriously, 471 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:46,199 Speaker 2: or I guess we're just bored with it. I don't know. 472 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 2: Maybe we're always about to shut down. It's like a nightmare. 473 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 7: Third time we've found ourselves in this situation, isn't it exactly? 474 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,639 Speaker 7: And we might find ourselves again in early March. 475 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 2: That's true, that's the new ladder right March one, March eight, 476 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,680 Speaker 2: assuming this thing passes. The Senate got their procedural vote 477 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 2: done last night, sixty eight thirteen, pretty encouraging, So I 478 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 2: guess we're going to figure this out. The question is, 479 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 2: will we ever have a real budget? Something we've asked 480 00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,080 Speaker 2: Miam againness before. She's president of the Committee for a 481 00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 2: Responsible Federal Budget. Amaya, it's great to have you back. 482 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,919 Speaker 2: Are you encouraged by no countdown clocks? Or is it 483 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:21,400 Speaker 2: just me. 484 00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:23,919 Speaker 5: Right? 485 00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 8: We don't want to keep counting kind of down and 486 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 8: seeing that nothing happens. But on the other hand, how 487 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,919 Speaker 8: discouraging it is that this has just become normal and 488 00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 8: that it's all for show, so we are going to 489 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 8: kick the can again. We are by the time we 490 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,439 Speaker 8: start to deal with the next moment where decisions have 491 00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,639 Speaker 8: to be made, we will almost be halfway through the 492 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 8: fiscal year. And if you're actually thinking about how the 493 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 8: budget process is supposed to work, it's just a few 494 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 8: weeks from now that the President is supposed to be 495 00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 8: submitting his budget for the next fiscal year. We haven't 496 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:57,680 Speaker 8: even begun to deal with this fiscal year. So it's 497 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 8: all to routine, a reminder of just how broken we are. 498 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 8: And yeah, I guess we're tired of the drama, but 499 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 8: it doesn't mean that it's any less dysfunctional than it 500 00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:09,240 Speaker 8: has been the entire time. 501 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 7: Yeah, maya, the timeline is all out of whack here, 502 00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,040 Speaker 7: But just on the timeline is the real deadline that 503 00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 7: we're going to be dealing with April when that sequester 504 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,640 Speaker 7: kicks in. The one percent quittes across the board, including 505 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 7: for defense. 506 00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:25,880 Speaker 8: You know, I think there are a number of moments 507 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:28,399 Speaker 8: where they are action forcing in one way or another, 508 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:30,760 Speaker 8: because there's always something that if not enough people go 509 00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:33,120 Speaker 8: along with there will be real consequences. So I do 510 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,680 Speaker 8: think that March deadline absolutely matters. But we are still 511 00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,560 Speaker 8: kind of skirting around what the specific funding levels will be. 512 00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 8: And if we hit that sequester moment, then we know 513 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 8: what they will be, and so I think that's always 514 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 8: been an important date. But right now my belief is 515 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,200 Speaker 8: we will start to have whatever funding bills are able 516 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 8: to pass, that they will be done by the beginning 517 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,360 Speaker 8: of March, and then the tricky thing will be how 518 00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 8: do you figure about out what to do with the 519 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 8: rest of the govern the pieces they couldn't pass an 520 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 8: individual appropriations? Will it look like a big Christmas tree 521 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 8: omnibus with lots of things hidden inside of it, or 522 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 8: will it just be a CR maybe at the sequester 523 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 8: level or somewhere around there. 524 00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:15,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, we've heard the idea of a year long CR floated. 525 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:19,160 Speaker 2: I could almost hear you. Your ears must have been burning, Maya. 526 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,159 Speaker 2: We're talking about a tax deal as well, though, and 527 00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,480 Speaker 2: it's interesting that we're trying to tweak revenue even though 528 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 2: we can't seem to figure out a budget here. But 529 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,439 Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer's endorsed this new tax compromise that's coming from 530 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:34,520 Speaker 2: Jason Smith and Ron Wyden Ways and Means Chair, Senate 531 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,200 Speaker 2: Finance Chair. I'm going to let everyone know right now 532 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:40,240 Speaker 2: that Kayley is going to be interviewing Jason Smith on 533 00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,120 Speaker 2: balance of power later he's going to be the man 534 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 2: of the moment. This would pair an expansion of the 535 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 2: child tax credit MAYA with more corporate friendly tax policy. 536 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 2: Is that a wash in your mind? Where's the committee 537 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:53,760 Speaker 2: on this? 538 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:55,600 Speaker 4: Yeah? 539 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,280 Speaker 8: So first, let me agree with the point that you 540 00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:01,439 Speaker 8: just made that really we should pass budgets before we 541 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,639 Speaker 8: do a lot of policies that would normally be a 542 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 8: part of budgets. I had some folks from other countries 543 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:07,959 Speaker 8: in here the other day asking me about how our 544 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,000 Speaker 8: budget process works, and they just didn't get it. They 545 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,720 Speaker 8: were like, you don't have a budget, but you still 546 00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:16,080 Speaker 8: pass policies spending taxes. How does that work? And I 547 00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 8: could not give them a good answer. So I wish 548 00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 8: we did this in a normal sequence. On this specific deal, 549 00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:25,040 Speaker 8: there's really both very very good things and some discouraging things. 550 00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:29,080 Speaker 8: On the good side, these folks who I didn't think 551 00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 8: would come up with a deal necessarily, we're able to 552 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:35,560 Speaker 8: come up with a tax deal that is pretty much 553 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 8: offset or paid for, And one of the goals from 554 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 8: a fiscal perspective is how do we rebuild that muscle 555 00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 8: memory that if something is worth doing, whether it's a 556 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,359 Speaker 8: spending increase or a tax cut, you also have to 557 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,040 Speaker 8: figure out how you're going to pay for it. You 558 00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 8: should borrow during emergencies, borrow during recessions, but normal times 559 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:53,720 Speaker 8: you've got to pay for things. And so they do 560 00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:57,640 Speaker 8: use some offsets that actually bring the policies back down 561 00:27:57,680 --> 00:27:59,360 Speaker 8: to where they are paid for. So that's the way 562 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 8: a compromise canon should work. Nonetheless, there's still some gimmicks. 563 00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 8: One of them is that these are only temporary tax extensions, 564 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 8: both on the business side and the child tax credit side. 565 00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 8: They're sensible policies, they make sense that they're brought together, 566 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 8: but they're going to expire in twenty twenty five. And 567 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,639 Speaker 8: this whole thing of let's put in place policies that 568 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 8: we want to be permanent, but will just make them 569 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,159 Speaker 8: temporary to shrink the price tag. That doesn't work. And 570 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,680 Speaker 8: if you actually what you estimate the overall costs making 571 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,919 Speaker 8: this permanent or an antenure window, you're looking at upwards 572 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 8: of half a trillion dollars, So there is a big 573 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,960 Speaker 8: price tag here if we tackle this comprehensibly. 574 00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 7: So for that reason, do you not think this deal, 575 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,720 Speaker 7: which has not yet been written into legislation, should be 576 00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:45,120 Speaker 7: passed by Congress? 577 00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 1: You know? 578 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,000 Speaker 8: I think, yeah, this is a one hand or the 579 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 8: other for real. For me, I think I'm very supportive 580 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 8: of the fact that it is paid for and that 581 00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 8: the Chairman went through that work of figuring out where 582 00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 8: the offsets are and they're not all gimmicks that which 583 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 8: we often see just made up things. They're real pay 584 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:06,440 Speaker 8: for us, and they're decent policies. They make sense. I 585 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,959 Speaker 8: think I would go ahead with this bill, and then 586 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,080 Speaker 8: we're going to have twenty twenty five to figure out 587 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 8: all of the tax policies which will be expiring all 588 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,640 Speaker 8: of the Trump tax cuts, many of which both Republicans 589 00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 8: and Democrats want to extend, but lots of people are 590 00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,400 Speaker 8: rightfully saying you can only do so if you pay 591 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 8: for them. But I hope on the budget process front, 592 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 8: we will yes get in the habit of paying for 593 00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 8: things like they do here, but stop the habit of 594 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 8: making things just for one or two years, which adds 595 00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,520 Speaker 8: to the uncertainty and some cynics would say, adds to 596 00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 8: the fundraising capabilities of people on various committees because you 597 00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,360 Speaker 8: have tax Lobbyistsy's pushing for those things to be extended. 598 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:44,640 Speaker 8: I don't think that's the right way to make policy. 599 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,000 Speaker 2: Can't imagine such things in Washington. As we spend time 600 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 2: with Miami, Guinnis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. 601 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,320 Speaker 2: That's a big meeting at the White House today that 602 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:57,040 Speaker 2: we've been talking about Maya, not about this budget specifically, 603 00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 2: but the request, the supplemental request that the President made 604 00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:03,160 Speaker 2: for Ukraine that also now has been sort of linked 605 00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:06,520 Speaker 2: with this potential deal on the border. I was joking 606 00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:09,880 Speaker 2: earlier with Kayley about the way the President may or 607 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:12,760 Speaker 2: may not handle this. Remember back in twenty twelve, Barack 608 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,640 Speaker 2: Obama had John Bayner over and he served hogies, he 609 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 2: served sandwiches, and was supposed to be some huge insult 610 00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 2: that he didn't break out the the White House China. 611 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 2: What's the reception. What's the strategy today from the White 612 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 2: House is they try to get into the Speaker's head. 613 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,520 Speaker 2: The stakes around Ukraine. 614 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 8: Well, this is a really complicated and interesting negotiation, both 615 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:39,160 Speaker 8: because the policies are immensely complicated. A foreign aid not 616 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,200 Speaker 8: so much, but coupling it with border security obviously a 617 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,360 Speaker 8: huge issue, one of the biggest issues in the country 618 00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:46,600 Speaker 8: and not easy to solve, and they're really working on 619 00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,040 Speaker 8: deep policy there. But also you have very complicated politics 620 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:53,120 Speaker 8: where many of the folks, including I believe, I've been 621 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:56,280 Speaker 8: told the Speaker does support a number of these aid packages, 622 00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,840 Speaker 8: but they have to deal with some of their conference 623 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,760 Speaker 8: members who do not. I think if you let any 624 00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:03,920 Speaker 8: of these things stand on their own, there'd be enough 625 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 8: support to pass them, whether it's Israel, Ukraine, even the border, 626 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,479 Speaker 8: depending on what the specifics look like. And so it's 627 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,880 Speaker 8: a complicated sort of coalition of ideas and people to 628 00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 8: build here. I hope and I believe that they are 629 00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:18,240 Speaker 8: working on building trust in this because each one of 630 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:22,040 Speaker 8: those leaders also has a very complicated constituency that they 631 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,880 Speaker 8: have to sell the deal to. But I think they're 632 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 8: more unified and that would be good to get these 633 00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:29,959 Speaker 8: things done. And again to show a little bit of optimism, 634 00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:32,640 Speaker 8: I think they're going to I've said that to a 635 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 8: number of groups of people and they've rolled their eyes 636 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,520 Speaker 8: at me. And it may be that the deal. 637 00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:39,320 Speaker 4: Just implodes on its own weight, but. 638 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 8: I believe there's enough support for all elements of the 639 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:45,880 Speaker 8: package that they will be able to get something done well. 640 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 7: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell seems to be wanting to 641 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:51,840 Speaker 7: move forward. He's speaking to reporters right now and has 642 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,160 Speaker 7: just told them that he expects the Senate will act 643 00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:59,360 Speaker 7: on the Ukraine supplemental next week. So I guess trying 644 00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:01,200 Speaker 7: to set a bit of a timeline here as they 645 00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:04,560 Speaker 7: try to come to a compromise. Obviously, what the Senate 646 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:06,760 Speaker 7: wants and what the House wants here maya probably a 647 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,400 Speaker 7: little bit different, as there are many in the House 648 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 7: advocating for greater fiscal restraint would not like to see 649 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:14,520 Speaker 7: this kind of spending going to Ukraine. The thing is, though, 650 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 7: in the actual appropriations process, as you have rightly pointed 651 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 7: out to us many times, the pile of money we're 652 00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,200 Speaker 7: talking about here, the actual programs that could be cut 653 00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:25,840 Speaker 7: is a very very small part of the spending of 654 00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,960 Speaker 7: the US government. Entitlements are a massive issue. And I 655 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:32,040 Speaker 7: bring this up because Joe Matthew is actually currently in 656 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,760 Speaker 7: a TV ad by the Trump administration because he talked 657 00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 7: to NICKI Haley about this months ago, and she said, yeah, 658 00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,600 Speaker 7: we have to lift the retirement age above sixty five, 659 00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 7: and she's getting kind of crucified for it, Maya. So 660 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,640 Speaker 7: does this just indicate that that actual entitlement conversation, that 661 00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,880 Speaker 7: huge line item when it comes to us spending is 662 00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:52,680 Speaker 7: not going to be a ball that can be touched 663 00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:54,240 Speaker 7: for this entire election year. 664 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,800 Speaker 8: Yeah, that is a great, great question, I think one 665 00:32:57,800 --> 00:32:59,840 Speaker 8: of the most important in terms of how things play 666 00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 8: out out in this election. And so it is without 667 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 8: question the truth that Social Security has to be reformed. 668 00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,640 Speaker 8: This is a program that will become insolvent in roughly 669 00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 8: a decade and there will be across the board twenty 670 00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:18,800 Speaker 8: three percent benefit cuts for everybody people who depend on 671 00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:22,360 Speaker 8: the program. There are so many ways to fix this program. 672 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 8: You can means test, you can cut benefits, you can 673 00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,880 Speaker 8: raise the retirement age, you can raise the payroll tax 674 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,480 Speaker 8: cap or the payroll tax rate. There are so many 675 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,440 Speaker 8: different solutions. The one thing that we should not be 676 00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,160 Speaker 8: arguing about is whether we have to make those changes. 677 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,600 Speaker 8: The truth is that we have waited for decades more 678 00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 8: than we should have. We could have made the changes 679 00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 8: in a much easier manner if we'd acted more quickly. 680 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:45,400 Speaker 8: And I think it's just the truth that when you 681 00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,040 Speaker 8: have a candidate like Nikki Haley saying we need to 682 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:50,120 Speaker 8: look at raising and the retirement age down the road 683 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,800 Speaker 8: for much younger workers, that is somebody who is leveling 684 00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,640 Speaker 8: with the American people about what kinds of choices there are. 685 00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,000 Speaker 8: There's no one option. We can disagree on what they 686 00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 8: should be, but anybody who's saying I'm not going to 687 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:05,840 Speaker 8: touch that program is doing a huge disservice to voters 688 00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 8: and not telling people. And the reason I kind of 689 00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:09,520 Speaker 8: want to be so strong in US and I'm a 690 00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:13,680 Speaker 8: political independent and we're more nonpartisan, but it is really 691 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,960 Speaker 8: easy to pretend that you will do nothing and that 692 00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:20,080 Speaker 8: that is protecting people when it comes to Social security, 693 00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 8: that's just not true. We need actual answers, and we 694 00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,960 Speaker 8: need leaders who are willing to talk about what changes 695 00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,200 Speaker 8: they support in order to fix the program. I just 696 00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,440 Speaker 8: I think social security right now is the political issue 697 00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,480 Speaker 8: that both parties are trying to pretend the other party 698 00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,600 Speaker 8: is going to you know, slash benefits, trying to scare people, 699 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 8: and it's really a short term political strategy that's reckless 700 00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:45,400 Speaker 8: in terms of protecting the program, and it deeply concerns 701 00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,640 Speaker 8: me that we're so caught up in those politics. 702 00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,160 Speaker 7: All right, Maya, thank you so much for joining us. 703 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 7: That's Maya McGinnis there. She's president of the Committee for 704 00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,760 Speaker 7: a Responsible Federal Budget. She thinks this is an issue 705 00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:58,439 Speaker 7: that needs to be talked about. But I'm not sure 706 00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:01,239 Speaker 7: how much Joe Nicki Hayley's going to wanting to talk 707 00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,000 Speaker 7: about this issue in the next few days as she 708 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:06,160 Speaker 7: is running the sprint toward the finish line of that 709 00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:07,160 Speaker 7: New Hampshire primary. 710 00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:08,920 Speaker 2: That's right, And I've noticed by the way they're doing 711 00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,560 Speaker 2: local news stories on that ad and I guess and 712 00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 2: we're going to see that a lot while we're up there. 713 00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 2: This may be something we can't touch till after the election. 714 00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 715 00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,480 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 716 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,920 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 717 00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:36,880 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 718 00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 719 00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:47,200 Speaker 2: Enter the Kaibar Breaker. Kyley, have you seen this? 720 00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:53,880 Speaker 7: I have it's a precision guided missile basically, and it 721 00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 7: can go a really long distance. Joe. That is the 722 00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,240 Speaker 7: crux of the matter here. It was sent from Iran 723 00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 7: into Syria and strike on Isis That's about thirteen hundred 724 00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,120 Speaker 7: kilometers eight hundred miles, and Iran says it can go 725 00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:10,080 Speaker 7: even further than that fourteen hundred and fifty kilometer maximum range, 726 00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:12,520 Speaker 7: and that maybe gives Israel a pretty big reason to 727 00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:13,040 Speaker 7: be nervous. 728 00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,200 Speaker 2: Incredible to learn that Iran could in fact hit Israel directly, 729 00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,800 Speaker 2: and after we saw what they did in Syria and 730 00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:22,600 Speaker 2: Iraq for that matter. Kayley, this is pretty scary stuff. 731 00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,960 Speaker 2: It's an incredible piece of reporting, and it sounds scary. 732 00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:29,319 Speaker 2: I don't know what the Kaibar breaker means exactly, but 733 00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:31,799 Speaker 2: this would make it the farthest such attack in the 734 00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:37,759 Speaker 2: IRGC's history, what we saw in Syria. Peter Martin's with 735 00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:40,160 Speaker 2: you in Washington. We know when we bring in Peter, 736 00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:41,040 Speaker 2: it's serious. 737 00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:47,439 Speaker 7: Yeah, absolutely right, he's here. I'm here. Joe still isn't here, Peter. 738 00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:51,319 Speaker 7: But wherever you are, you probably pay attention to a 739 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:53,879 Speaker 7: story like this. Is there are these heightened concerns around 740 00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:57,080 Speaker 7: escalating tensions in the Middle East and the potential for 741 00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:03,240 Speaker 7: this to turn into a substantial regional conflict. How nervous 742 00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,959 Speaker 7: is the US about not the Iranian proxies, but about 743 00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:10,520 Speaker 7: Iran specifically directly involving itself in some of this activity. 744 00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:14,200 Speaker 9: Well, I think that's a concern for US official that's 745 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:18,279 Speaker 9: kind of been running throughout this whole process. It's one 746 00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:23,319 Speaker 9: thing to deter proxies, whether it's Hezbla in northern Israel 747 00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,399 Speaker 9: or proxies in Iraqan Syria. It's another thing to think 748 00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:32,319 Speaker 9: about direct war between Israel in Iran or maybe even 749 00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:34,879 Speaker 9: the US in Iran. I think for the moment, US 750 00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:39,520 Speaker 9: officials feel like they have kind of deterred that from happening. 751 00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:44,640 Speaker 9: But certainly this latest show of Iranian military force demonstrates 752 00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,680 Speaker 9: why officials in Israel and indeed Washington are worried. 753 00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:51,120 Speaker 2: Peter, as you covered the Pentagon. Are we just learning 754 00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:53,880 Speaker 2: about this or is everyone just learning about it? Did 755 00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,640 Speaker 2: Israel did know about this? Did the US know this existed? 756 00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,279 Speaker 9: I mean, I'm not entirely clear on this. I think 757 00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:05,680 Speaker 9: there has been a widespread assumption that Israel is capable 758 00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:09,600 Speaker 9: of hitting, that Iran is capable of hitting Israel if 759 00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:14,320 Speaker 9: it needs to, And certainly that's been a concern running 760 00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,440 Speaker 9: through you know, Iran has been able to set up 761 00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,720 Speaker 9: a network of proxy actors throughout the Middle East, stretching 762 00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:24,000 Speaker 9: all the way to Israel's borders. Of course, her mass 763 00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:27,160 Speaker 9: is backed by Iran, and so is Hezbala, and so 764 00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:29,799 Speaker 9: that kind of near and present threat has been something 765 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:31,879 Speaker 9: that's been there for a little while. But of course 766 00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:35,799 Speaker 9: these new missiles will will just add to that. 767 00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:40,279 Speaker 7: Would it change anything about the composition of the aid 768 00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,759 Speaker 7: of the weaponry the US would provide to Israel or 769 00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:45,759 Speaker 7: is it still just continues supplying the Iron Dome some 770 00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:47,719 Speaker 7: of these similar questions. And I just asked this knowing 771 00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:49,840 Speaker 7: that at that White House meeting Joe is alluding to 772 00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:53,040 Speaker 7: that's going to take place between congressional leaders and the President. 773 00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,840 Speaker 7: The supplemental we're talking about isn't just aid for Ukraine, 774 00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,359 Speaker 7: it is also aid for Israel. And I wonder how 775 00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,440 Speaker 7: the US is thinking about what Israel needs when you 776 00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:02,040 Speaker 7: know there's threats like this out there. 777 00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:05,359 Speaker 9: I mean, I think my impression is that Israel has 778 00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:10,480 Speaker 9: a pretty strong shelf of capabilities when it comes to 779 00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:15,680 Speaker 9: hitting back against Iranian conventional threats. The question here would 780 00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:20,120 Speaker 9: be can the US help to dampen tensions in a 781 00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,239 Speaker 9: way that would make war less likely overall, you know, 782 00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,759 Speaker 9: getting to a point where Israel doesn't need to use 783 00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:27,520 Speaker 9: those capabilities. 784 00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,719 Speaker 2: Pretty incredible to read, as all Ran also hit Pakistan 785 00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:35,719 Speaker 2: with missiles on Tuesday. Peter, where's the Pentagon on concerns 786 00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:36,840 Speaker 2: over a wider conflict? 787 00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:40,920 Speaker 9: I mean, I would say from the White House, through 788 00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:43,640 Speaker 9: the Pentagon to the State Department, US officials have been 789 00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:47,280 Speaker 9: very concerned about the risks of a of a widening 790 00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:48,399 Speaker 9: conflict for the whole time. 791 00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:48,760 Speaker 3: Here. 792 00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:54,040 Speaker 9: The latest strikes inside Pakistan and indeed some additional strikes 793 00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:57,720 Speaker 9: inside Iraq just kind of hit that home. It's something 794 00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,400 Speaker 9: that the Iraqi government has responded to in a kind 795 00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,920 Speaker 9: of rare public rebuke of Iran, and it's something where 796 00:40:03,960 --> 00:40:07,239 Speaker 9: Pakistan has responded too strongly as well, even recalling its 797 00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:08,320 Speaker 9: ambassador from Tehran. 798 00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:11,279 Speaker 7: Of course, as we talk about Iran and the Iranian proxies, 799 00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:13,880 Speaker 7: the US has taken direct action against one of the 800 00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:17,480 Speaker 7: proxy groups, the Huthis, with multiple strikes trying to take 801 00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,920 Speaker 7: out their capability as they continue to threaten and attack 802 00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:22,640 Speaker 7: vessels in the Red Sea. Do we have a sense 803 00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:25,680 Speaker 7: of to what degree those direct strikes are going to continue, 804 00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:28,640 Speaker 7: how many more offensive maneuvers we could see coming from 805 00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:29,480 Speaker 7: the US military? 806 00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:33,480 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean the Pentagon's quite cagy about putting numbers 807 00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:35,320 Speaker 9: on that kind of thing. They like to use the 808 00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,400 Speaker 9: sort of generic language about we will strike at a 809 00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,320 Speaker 9: time of our own choosing. But I think the expectation 810 00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,800 Speaker 9: is that there is more military action to come, simply 811 00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:47,040 Speaker 9: because there are very few signs that the Houthis have 812 00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:52,359 Speaker 9: yet been deterred. And of course the reason for that, 813 00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:55,400 Speaker 9: I think US officials and everyone else would recognizes that 814 00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:57,680 Speaker 9: the Huthis are not acting on their own, They're acting 815 00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,680 Speaker 9: in accordance with the of Tehran. 816 00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,040 Speaker 2: Peter Martin, we understand the Secretary of Defenses back home, 817 00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:06,480 Speaker 2: or at least he's out of the hospital and he's 818 00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:11,560 Speaker 2: quote unquote working from home. To what extent do we 819 00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:14,320 Speaker 2: know anything about his condition at this point or is 820 00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,799 Speaker 2: this still shrouded in mystery? 821 00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:20,800 Speaker 9: I mean, beyond the disclosures we saw last week about 822 00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:24,920 Speaker 9: his diagnosis of prostate cancer is the initial cause of this, 823 00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:29,440 Speaker 9: we don't have much more information. Pentagon officials were very 824 00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:33,760 Speaker 9: keen distress that Secretary Austin was conducting his full duties 825 00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:38,040 Speaker 9: from his hospital room, including the use of secure communications, 826 00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:39,799 Speaker 9: which they said they had set up there for him, 827 00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:42,759 Speaker 9: and I'm sure that that would always have been the 828 00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:43,640 Speaker 9: case at his home. 829 00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:44,640 Speaker 4: All right. 830 00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:47,719 Speaker 7: Peter Martin, who covers the Pentagon for us here at Bloomberg, 831 00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,600 Speaker 7: from drama around personnel to what's happening in the Middle East, 832 00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:53,239 Speaker 7: thank you so much for thank you for joining us 833 00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:55,359 Speaker 7: and Joe. That Lloyd Austin story, I think is one 834 00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:57,960 Speaker 7: that isn't going to go away anytime soon, even if 835 00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,040 Speaker 7: his hospital stay has come to an end. Of the 836 00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:03,840 Speaker 7: questions around it. The communication failures that we saw happen, 837 00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,920 Speaker 7: the inquiries into that I think are really just getting started. 838 00:42:07,040 --> 00:42:10,800 Speaker 2: Did you see Kaylee audio from the phone call. 839 00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:12,879 Speaker 7: That his security detail on. 840 00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:18,640 Speaker 2: Fairfax County Dispatch. This is remarkable. They deserve credit. The 841 00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:21,239 Speaker 2: Daily Beast got this through a foyer request and you 842 00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:25,000 Speaker 2: could hear the staffer asking them to remain subtle, no 843 00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:27,600 Speaker 2: sirens or lights as they came to get the Secretary 844 00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:28,000 Speaker 2: at home. 845 00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:32,600 Speaker 7: They're trying to do this in an subtle way. I 846 00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:35,400 Speaker 7: think was the quote on the phone call, which just 847 00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:38,560 Speaker 7: speaks again to the perhaps privacy concerns that the Secretary 848 00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:42,960 Speaker 7: had surrounding his own medical issues. But again, when you're 849 00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:47,040 Speaker 7: the Secretary of Defense, that privacy may not be as 850 00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:48,759 Speaker 7: robust as you would like to think. 851 00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,359 Speaker 2: We're still talking about this though. The things we don't 852 00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:53,759 Speaker 2: know to your point, and how's this going with him 853 00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,640 Speaker 2: at home is see on zoom like we're in a bathrobe. 854 00:42:56,680 --> 00:43:00,360 Speaker 2: I don't want to understand. We'll have more on Austin 855 00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:02,360 Speaker 2: as we learn it with Kaylee Lines. I'm Joe Matthew. 856 00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:11,280 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. 857 00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:14,440 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 858 00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:16,960 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. And you can 859 00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:19,960 Speaker 2: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one 860 00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:24,160 Speaker 2: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.