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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Charlie paddled in

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Speaker 2: for Doug Prisoner. This week, South Korea's brief lurch to

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Speaker 2: martial law this week's spook markets, but rapid action by

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Speaker 2: officials to restore democratic norms and reassure investors has limited

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Speaker 2: the damage, at least for now. For more, we heard

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Speaker 2: from Victoria Fernandez, Chief market strategistic Crossmark Global Investments, and

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Speaker 2: she spoke to Bloomberg's Sherry On and Heidi Stroud Watts.

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Speaker 3: Does this give us an indication that perhaps Marcus and

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Speaker 3: investors have underprised the risk of political fragmentation more broadly,

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Speaker 3: particularly as twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 4: Holds so much uncertainty.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, there's definitely been a lot of volatility in markets

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Speaker 5: related to the issues that we've seen. Some of them

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Speaker 5: are things that we were expecting, some have been quite unexpected.

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Speaker 5: We talked at the beginning of the year about how

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Speaker 5: many countries around the world would have shifts in their

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Speaker 5: leadership and in their governments and how that could really

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Speaker 5: make a change for policies and for markets, and I

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Speaker 5: think we've seen that. Unfortunately, some of the things like

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Speaker 5: we've seen in South Korea and like we have seen

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Speaker 5: in France have caused some volatility elements, but they have

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Speaker 5: stabilized somewhat. We look at South Korea, the markets obviously

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Speaker 5: took a nose dive right after martial law was declared,

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Speaker 5: but as that was brought back, we've seen them start

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Speaker 5: to stabilize. We've seen central banks step in and put

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Speaker 5: some stabilization and some liquidity components in there to help

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Speaker 5: stabilize that. But again, you know, any kind of political

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Speaker 5: elements causes concern and causes uncertainty that's going to make

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Speaker 5: the markets react accordingly.

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Speaker 6: Victoria, what do you make of all of the measure

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Speaker 6: that we've seen so far from financial authorities. I spoke

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Speaker 6: to the Finance minister yesterday who was saying he could

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Speaker 6: implement more measures if needed. Do you think it will

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Speaker 6: come to that and what are the expectations of how

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Speaker 6: the market term will will unfold given that we're headed

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Speaker 6: towards that impeachment vote.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, there have been some stabilization measures that have put

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Speaker 5: in place, and it's there are liquidity provisions that are

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Speaker 5: there for the equity markets. We've seen stabilization funds get

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Speaker 5: implemented both for the equity market I think it is

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Speaker 5: like ten trillion one as well as for the bond market.

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Speaker 5: And we've even seen some liquidity elements come in in

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Speaker 5: terms of foreign currency repos to help with the FX

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Speaker 5: markets as well. So I feel like the markets have

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Speaker 5: some stabilization effects that are in place that should help tremendously.

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Speaker 5: It's the same type of thing we saw in the

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Speaker 5: US when we had regional banks start to fail, had

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Speaker 5: the central Bank step in with a lot of liquidity

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Speaker 5: measures to help support that. You're seeing the same thing here,

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Speaker 5: So I think you are okay for right now. As

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Speaker 5: the impeachment vote gets closer, obviously there could be some

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Speaker 5: turmoil there. You've had a lot of people come out

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Speaker 5: and say this could actually be a buying opportunity in

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Speaker 5: South Korea because looking longer term, things should stabilize pretty

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Speaker 5: quickly once the government is put back in place. We'll

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Speaker 5: have to see. We can't see into the future, but

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Speaker 5: it seems like the central Bank is ready to tackle

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Speaker 5: whatever they may see.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, all position leader Idamyong telling me yesterday that investors

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Speaker 6: shooes actually buy the dip. But Victoria relatively speaking, though,

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Speaker 6: given the ongoing political uncertainty here. What are some of

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Speaker 6: the markets that you would be more encouraged by in

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Speaker 6: the next few months relative to South Korea.

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Speaker 5: So obviously the US market, it has had a lot

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Speaker 5: of strength associated with it. There's a lot of seasonality

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Speaker 5: serving as a tailwind for the equity markets in the US.

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Speaker 5: And with a new administration coming in in January that

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Speaker 5: seems to be much more business oriented, that would be

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Speaker 5: advantageous in regards to tax cuts for consumers and for corporations.

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Speaker 5: With deregulation elements probably something that we're going to see then,

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Speaker 5: I think that the US market has a tailwind at

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Speaker 5: its back in order to help it continue to do

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Speaker 5: well as long as inflation remains contained. We know that

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Speaker 5: tariffs is going to be an issue globally. I think

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Speaker 5: we have to separate tariffs from the US as it

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Speaker 5: relates to China and the rest of the world. As

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Speaker 5: Besant was nominated for Treasury Secretary this past week, you

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Speaker 5: saw the repercussions in regards to tariffs globally, the element

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Speaker 5: of that come back a little bit, and that was

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Speaker 5: a positive for the mart I think that's different with China.

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Speaker 5: That is something that presidentlet Trump can do somewhat unilaterally

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Speaker 5: coming in, so I would stay away from those markets

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Speaker 5: and I would look more towards European and US markets. Europe,

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Speaker 5: I know, has been struggling, but if you look at

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Speaker 5: the French consumer, even with everything that's going on there,

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Speaker 5: France being the second largest Euro Area economy, the consumer

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Speaker 5: is spending. Real spending is up about two point four

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Speaker 5: percent year over year. Their savings is going higher, wages

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Speaker 5: are strong. So I think you can find some elements

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Speaker 5: probably there that would do well also.

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Speaker 4: Victoria.

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Speaker 3: Of course we're heading into payrolls day in the US. Victoria,

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Speaker 3: your expectations for this economy and really where this valley

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Speaker 3: goes from here? Right that leadership of the seven of

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Speaker 3: tech record highs, can we push further or can we broaden?

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Speaker 7: Well?

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Speaker 5: Hopefully, Heidi, we're broadening. That's what we want to see

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Speaker 5: in order to have a sustainable rally. When you look

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Speaker 5: at tech, you really have to look at it separately,

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Speaker 5: kind of separate out the semis. They have been underperforming tremendously.

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Speaker 5: They have the least amount of their constituents in that

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Speaker 5: sector that are above their twenty day highs. So semis

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Speaker 5: are really struggling. But you could look elsewhere in tech

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Speaker 5: things associated with AI as well, and utilities, or you're

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Speaker 5: going to be looking for energy associated with AI. Those

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Speaker 5: could be areas that start to have some leadership. Financials

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Speaker 5: obviously is an area that we have liked for a

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Speaker 5: long time with the steepening of the yield curve, and

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Speaker 5: we think you'll continue to see the momentum in that

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Speaker 5: sector go forward. But jobs are going to be critical.

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Speaker 5: I don't think an upside surprise will upset things, but

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Speaker 5: if the numbers are really low, that could mean the

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Speaker 5: Fed cut rates even quicker than what pill anticipate.

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Speaker 2: Victoria Fernandos, Chief market strategistic cross Mark Global Investments, speaking

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Speaker 2: of Bloomberg's sharing on Straw Watts. Welcome back to the

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Speaker 2: Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Charlie Palatch. Doug Chrisner has the

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Speaker 2: week off Asian equities tractor drop in US shares ahead

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Speaker 2: of jobs data that may help shape the direction of

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Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve's policy path later this month. Earlier, we

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Speaker 2: heard from Noumero Cio and head of Discretionary portfolio manager

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Speaker 2: Gareth Nicholson. He spoke with Bloomberg's David Inglis and Annabelle droolers.

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Speaker 4: Gareth, good morning. I'll get straight to it.

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Speaker 7: You guys don't think they're going to cut next week.

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Speaker 1: No, we don't, and we think that the job's data

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Speaker 1: is going to be you know, a bit of goldilocks,

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Speaker 1: which is great.

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Speaker 4: I mean, investors want goldilocks.

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Speaker 3: We like that.

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Speaker 1: We don't want a too lot. We don't want it

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Speaker 1: too cold, we don't want it too predictable.

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Speaker 4: There's no risk.

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Speaker 1: We don't want it too unpredictable, there's too much fair.

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Speaker 4: We're going to get a two hundred odd.

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Speaker 1: Job number, which will suggest to us that the fad

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Speaker 1: things market is strong enough to be patient. They're going

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Speaker 1: to wait to see a little bit more reaction from

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Speaker 1: the new president coming in. They will keep their options open.

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Speaker 1: That's constructive for equity markets.

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Speaker 4: That's status quote.

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Speaker 1: We think this is going to be a decent print

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Speaker 1: for markets to continue the momentum. So we don't get

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Speaker 1: that cut then later this month, what's your expectations around

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, Then we still kind of stay higher

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Speaker 1: for longer. We're going to wearing higher than we have

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Speaker 1: been for the last few years.

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Speaker 4: For sure. We see two cuts for next year.

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Speaker 1: We believe that gives in the gives a fed the

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Speaker 1: optionality that if some of the policy is a lot

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Speaker 1: more inflationary than maybe expected, they can react. If it's

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Speaker 1: not as much, then they can look to normalize to

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Speaker 1: a terminal rate, which is more acceptable. And with regards

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Speaker 1: to that, that's why we're seeing probably two cuts for

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Speaker 1: the whole of twenty twenty five in the US, unlike

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Speaker 1: places like Europe where we expect more.

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Speaker 7: Gareth, on that point, I think we're headed for a

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Speaker 7: record another record year for the SMP. It's just in

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Speaker 7: terms of the actual level and the number of times

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Speaker 7: we've been, you know, clocking in you highs. Why even

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Speaker 7: bothered looking anywhere else?

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Speaker 4: To be honest, Gareth.

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Speaker 1: David, it's a great question and some question that I

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Speaker 1: suppose investor has been asking for a number of years.

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Speaker 4: Right, you could have brought tech a while ago, close

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Speaker 4: your eyes and be pretty happy.

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Speaker 1: But you know, as investors, we've got to think about

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Speaker 1: where's this predictable income going to come from. We know

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Speaker 1: that tech is part of our daily lives, so tech

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Speaker 1: s and p will continue to be a.

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Speaker 4: Big driver of performance going forward.

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Speaker 1: It's not going to disappear but at these kind of levels,

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Speaker 1: is there a probability that we could see a turn

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Speaker 1: around in growth? Is there probability that tech is just overdone?

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Speaker 4: Yes, it's low.

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Speaker 1: It's more like a Great swan than than a black swan,

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Speaker 1: But there is this risk. So we do need to

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Speaker 1: look to diversify. We do need to look where there's

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Speaker 1: other avenues of growth, just in case, maybe not the

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Speaker 1: majority of the portfolio, but definitely looking to move some

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Speaker 1: out into.

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Speaker 4: Areas that are going to give you growth. They're going

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Speaker 4: to give you also predictable income.

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Speaker 5: So what does that What gives you growth with predictable income?

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Speaker 4: Where else are you looking at?

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Speaker 1: Although there's a number of different ways. They two offhand.

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Speaker 1: One would be and they're both actually we reliant on

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Speaker 1: a lot to do with the new administration coming in.

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Speaker 4: One would be the arts of the deal.

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Speaker 1: Would be we know that in the Trump era we're

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Speaker 1: going to see more deal making. We think this is

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Speaker 1: going to be interesting, particularly for the private equity market,

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Speaker 1: and particularly on the secondaries.

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Speaker 4: Secondaries have a little bit more visibility of the deals.

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Speaker 1: They're looking at the last stretch of the race, and

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Speaker 1: we think that's going to give you.

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Speaker 4: Some more predictable growth.

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Speaker 1: We also like, you know, even though there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of shifting with policy narrative, we like things like long

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Speaker 1: term infrastructure, private infrastructure, looking at decarbonization, digitalization, deglobalization. These

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Speaker 1: things are not going to get affected by a four

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Speaker 1: years projects. So again, those are nice predictable incomes, you know,

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Speaker 1: low single digits, high sorry, low double digits, high single digits.

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Speaker 4: That's a comfortable income at the moment. Yeah, Gareth.

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Speaker 7: That's part of your almost one hundred page reports on

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Speaker 7: the stuff to look out for next year. That's almost

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Speaker 7: one page for every three days of twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 7: which I think will unpack a bit later on. Just

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Speaker 7: very quickly, do I want to ask you about Korea?

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Speaker 7: The well, the notion certainly when you look at markets

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Speaker 7: which really had been stable, to be fair compared to

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Speaker 7: where we were right before this the whole drama, is

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Speaker 7: there the value up program in Korea might be at risk?

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Speaker 7: Is that something I should be worried about?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Korea.

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Speaker 1: You know, we didn't expect what's happened recently, but we

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Speaker 1: have been underweight both the bonds and the equities. The

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Speaker 1: bonds because they've just been trading so incredibly type, particularly

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Speaker 1: the dollar bonds. The equity because of the tariff, is

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Speaker 1: because of some of the valuation, because some of the

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Speaker 1: sectors that majority of the indexes in, we haven't.

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Speaker 4: Really seen the value there.

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Speaker 1: This has really shaken sentiment, shaken confidence. We're not going

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Speaker 1: to see the same sort of tourism, same sort of

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Speaker 1: support for a little while. So this gets our focus

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Speaker 1: back on the space. Once we see a little bit

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Speaker 1: more predictability where it's going, I think the valuations that

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Speaker 1: will be more compelling. But at the moment this is

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Speaker 1: a wait and see. This is not an era where

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Speaker 1: we diversify out of the US, for instance, or Japan

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Speaker 1: or even Singapore to go into career just yet. With

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Speaker 1: regards to equities.

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Speaker 7: Gareth, if we don't speak to you again, happy New Year.

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Speaker 7: It's always obviously with value of course, the insight CIO

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Speaker 7: and head of Discretionary Portroleum Management there at.

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Speaker 2: Numura, Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the

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Speaker 2: story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific.

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Speaker 2: You can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast

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Speaker 2: YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen. Join us again

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Speaker 2: tomorrow for insight on the market moves from Hong Kong

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Speaker 2: to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Prisoner and this is

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg