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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: PODYA, All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen Cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five, Tony Cony five fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the Kicks Block Look college Football.

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Speaker 4: Laura Stunde, Oh my goodness, he stumble the football, the

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Speaker 4: lateral turn, the counter on the.

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Speaker 1: Job, don't you The lad came him up the field

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Speaker 1: to night.

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Speaker 3: It's not the sage on the dog in the fight,

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Speaker 3: it's the sage of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast five Deep Dive.

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Speaker 2: I'm co host Mike Calbreys and the Jared Sebransky to

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Speaker 2: my CHUCKI Keaton of course referring to Mike Ianello. Here

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Speaker 2: for the Mountain West preview. We're also joined by the

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Speaker 2: incomparable Colin Wilson from the Action Network as well. We're

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Speaker 2: going to get into everything mount West here. It's the

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Speaker 2: last ride with them and the West divisions. Next year

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Speaker 2: they're going to just the top two teams. But this

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Speaker 2: is the last time we get to be a little

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Speaker 2: bit strategic as we go through our season preview.

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Speaker 1: Guys, how you doing, Colin? I know you're always on

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Speaker 1: the move. Let's start with you.

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Speaker 5: Obviously, I said the Sun Belt was my favorite conference,

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Speaker 5: but they don't have San Diego State. I will bet

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Speaker 5: a San Diego State over every single weekend just to

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Speaker 5: see if they can get nineteen points on the board.

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Speaker 5: If you have not bet a live total over seventeen

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Speaker 5: and a half points on San Diego State, you are

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Speaker 5: not living life the right way.

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Speaker 6: I love our new segment of Where in the World

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Speaker 6: is Colin Wilson. I think you should be required to

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Speaker 6: be somewhere different each episode, but I don't want to

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Speaker 6: spoil anything later on in the show. But Colin, this

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Speaker 6: might be the first year your San Diego State over

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Speaker 6: is actually hit. So this is a big year for

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Speaker 6: you as techovers.

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Speaker 3: All right, why.

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Speaker 2: Don't we jump into the action here. We got lots

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Speaker 2: of teams to discuss. There's been a ton of movement

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Speaker 2: in the transfer portal and this particular conference, so there's

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Speaker 2: you know, that first week for most casual fans when

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Speaker 2: they turn the games on, they are not going to

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Speaker 2: see the familiar faces.

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Speaker 1: From the twenty twenty one season.

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Speaker 2: In a lot of cases, they're going to see guys

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Speaker 2: they think should be on Nevada that are actually in Colorado.

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Speaker 3: State.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to that in just a moment.

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Speaker 6: Rocking back.

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Speaker 2: Starting in the Mountain Division, the favorites here at plus

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Speaker 2: two to twenty five to win the Mountain West. Eight

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Speaker 2: and a half wins for their win total, referring of

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Speaker 2: course to the Boise State Broncos s and p plus

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Speaker 2: has them pretty split in terms of quality defense. Fourteenth

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Speaker 2: for their projection. They returned nine starters and that side

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Speaker 2: of the ball seventy second offensively. And tim Plow, you know,

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Speaker 2: he was a rising star coming out of the FCS ranks.

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Speaker 2: There was a lot of optimism that he'd get this

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Speaker 2: offense cooking to the old Boise State ways. But last

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Speaker 2: year the offensive line did not hold up. Bachmeier was

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Speaker 2: under pressure constantly. Halani gets hurt. Now they get to

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Speaker 2: do a refresh. They bring back to All Mountain the

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Speaker 2: West Conference linemen. They have some solid depth there. They

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Speaker 2: bring to Washington State transfer to potentially play left tackle.

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Speaker 2: Plani is healthy again at least to start this season,

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Speaker 2: but they're going to have to do a lot on

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Speaker 2: the perimeter.

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Speaker 1: Aside from Cobbs, they.

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Speaker 2: Lose Khalil Shaker, and this year it doesn't start easy

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Speaker 2: for them. Three of their first four on the road

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Speaker 2: they open in corballis against Oregon State, then New Mexico,

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Speaker 2: U T.

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Speaker 1: Martin, and UTEP. When I look back on the team.

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Speaker 2: Last year before I kick it to you guys, it

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Speaker 2: was interesting to me that, you know, the perception was

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Speaker 2: was a huge step back for Boise State, Andy Avolost,

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Speaker 2: You couldn't rekindle the magic that so many of the

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Speaker 2: coaches have been passing the baton for years past. But

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Speaker 2: five point loss to UCF, one point lost to Oklahoma State,

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Speaker 2: ten point loss in Nevada. That was really the only

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Speaker 2: time all season that they were fully outclassed Air Force

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Speaker 2: by a touchdown in San Diego State by nine. You

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Speaker 2: could probably see one or two of those games going

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Speaker 2: in their direction. Their bowl game gets canceled. So I

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Speaker 2: think for as powerful a brand as they are in

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Speaker 2: the Mountain West, I think they're kind of laying in

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Speaker 2: the weeds here. What are your thoughts on the Broncos

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Speaker 2: going into this season? Is this a team you're eying

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Speaker 2: on to get things right offensively?

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Speaker 5: Calm Boise State is priced properly, so you know, I'm

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Speaker 5: not going to have a play.

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Speaker 3: On their over under.

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Speaker 5: I make it nine point two I think guess p

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Speaker 5: plus makes at nine point four, so you would think

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Speaker 5: that you want to take the over. The reason why

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Speaker 5: I'm laying off of this number, this is the toughest

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Speaker 5: schedule of offenses per sp plus. You just take the

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Speaker 5: dump the schedule, look at the offenses, get the average.

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Speaker 5: This is the toughest offensive schedule of any team in

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Speaker 5: the Mountain West. So for me, Boise is a no

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Speaker 5: play and They've got to get something going on offense.

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Speaker 5: I'm glad they have all their offensive linebacks, so I'll

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Speaker 5: be watching closely.

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Speaker 1: I know, are you any more bullish on them? I

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Speaker 1: know Backmeier is not someone that really gets your chili

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Speaker 1: running hot, so maybe if they had a different option there,

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Speaker 1: you'd be more bullish on the boys on the smurf turf.

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Speaker 6: I don't think they win the division, and I'll talk

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Speaker 6: about who I think does. But like you said, I

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Speaker 6: think the defense should be fine. They're nasty last year,

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Speaker 6: they return a ton. Their pass rush to be really

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Speaker 6: good once again, secondaries loaded. The defense will not be

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Speaker 6: the issue. It's the offense. This low key might be

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Speaker 6: super insulting their offense. This reminds me a lot of

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Speaker 6: that like twenty twelve Penn State offense where Matt McGloin

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Speaker 6: would just throw up reckless bombs, but Alan Robinson caught

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Speaker 6: them every time, and you're like, Wow, this offense looks

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Speaker 6: pretty good. They score a lot of touchdowns. Well, Khalioshakiir's gone.

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Speaker 6: I think Blackmeyer is going to be in trouble without him.

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Speaker 6: He had more than double the receptions and yards than

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Speaker 6: any other receiver on this team. The other a big issue.

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Speaker 6: I know Colin loves talking about the offensive line. He

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Speaker 6: gets hit a ton. Their offensive line gives up a

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Speaker 6: ton of hits, and Bachmeyers had health issues. He usually

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Speaker 6: plays their injury so he's always just limping for some reason.

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Speaker 6: George Lawanne, he's had injury issues. He's missed like twelve

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Speaker 6: games in the last two years. I just don't trust

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Speaker 6: the offense. So I don't think you can win their

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Speaker 6: division with how bad their offense is. I don't trust

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Speaker 6: Blochmeyer at all.

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Speaker 1: I think it's important to catch this in.

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Speaker 2: This isn't necessarily our thought on the team, more so

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Speaker 2: in visa the their current price. So I think we're

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Speaker 2: all in agreement here at plus two twenty five. I

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Speaker 2: don't want to tie up my money for the whole

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Speaker 2: season for team that needs a lot of things to

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Speaker 2: go right to rewrite their kind of history offensively, coming

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Speaker 2: off one of their worst offensive seasons in the last

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Speaker 2: twenty five years, dating all the way back to their

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Speaker 2: transition to big boy football at the Division one A level.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's transition quickly to a team that I'm

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Speaker 2: more bullish on. And this is kind of on my

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Speaker 2: college football bucket list when I went through it was

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Speaker 2: last summer. There's a few things I want to see.

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Speaker 2: I wanted to see a group of five team make

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Speaker 2: the playoff that happens. I'd love to see a defensive

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Speaker 2: player within the Heisman Trophy. No one's really put a

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Speaker 2: serious run into that. I mean, if Will Anderson can't

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Speaker 2: get serious consideration last year, I'm not sure who can.

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Speaker 1: Another one that.

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Speaker 2: I've added to the list, I would love to see

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Speaker 2: a Service Academy put the fear of God into the

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Speaker 2: playoff committee, go undefeated, put them in an uncomfortable situation

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Speaker 2: in late November with quality wins to say, do we

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Speaker 2: have to take air Force seriously? Because I am taking

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Speaker 2: Air Force seriously right now. Five to one to win

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Speaker 2: the Mountain West eight and a half wins as their

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Speaker 2: win total sp plus. Unsurprisingly, not all that impressed with

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Speaker 2: what they're bringing back because it's a Service Academy sixty

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Speaker 2: ninth offensive efficiency sixty first on the defensive.

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Speaker 1: Side of the ball.

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Speaker 2: But for my money, this could be if everything breaks right,

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Speaker 2: because they have so many returning starters, one of the

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Speaker 2: best Air Force teams maybe since eighty five.

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Speaker 1: Look at the ninety eighteen that went twelve and one when.

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Speaker 2: You return a quarterback because Eve Daniels leading rusher Brad Roberts,

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Speaker 2: who I think he had three hundred carries last year,

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Speaker 2: talking about being a bell cow, he was somebody who

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Speaker 2: was so physical and allowed their guys on the perimeter

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Speaker 2: when they were going off of that dive to really

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Speaker 2: make some Hey, four fifths of the offensive line return

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Speaker 2: eight of eleven defensive starters, and this is a defense

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Speaker 2: last year. I understand they're buoyed by an offense that

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Speaker 2: eats up the clock, so every single stop is more

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Speaker 2: meaningful in terms of yardage.

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Speaker 1: But they were fifth in.

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Speaker 2: Total defense night against the run to eighteenth in sacks

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Speaker 2: and the key for them, and this is really the

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Speaker 2: high variance point for any Service Academy offense only ten

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Speaker 2: giveaways the whole season. If they get close within like

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Speaker 2: two or three of that to the same amount of

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Speaker 2: giveaways this year, I think they're going to flirt with

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Speaker 2: an undefeated regular season. They got you and I in

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Speaker 2: the non cunference, and that's Northern Iowa. They got Colorado

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Speaker 2: at home, they had Void Fresno. They get Boise State

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Speaker 2: at home. I'm just all in on the Falcons here.

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Speaker 2: Does anyone want to throw cold water on my pick?

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Speaker 5: No, I mean, there's no way I'm throwing cold water,

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Speaker 5: But I do think that there's a better, better betting

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Speaker 5: angle than the other. So let me go ahead and

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Speaker 5: start off by saying, like, you know, they returned seventy

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Speaker 5: percent of their offense back, they were second in the nation,

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Speaker 5: and havoc allowed, which means they didn't have tackles for loss,

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Speaker 5: they didn't fumble the ball. A lot of that is,

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Speaker 5: you know, they're a service academy team and that's just

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Speaker 5: the way that they run. I am extremely bullish on

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Speaker 5: these guys.

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Speaker 3: My point.

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Speaker 5: My projected number is nine point nine for a win

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Speaker 5: total that's in eight and a half.

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Speaker 3: SP plus is about nine.

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Speaker 5: Point one, and a lot of this goes to you

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Speaker 5: know what they return on both sides of the ball

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Speaker 5: with you know, ninety four percent of the rushing yards

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Speaker 5: are back with Brad Roberts and Zee Daniels. You know,

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Speaker 5: I think the biggest question is is if the defense

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Speaker 5: takes a step back with fifty eight percent of their

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Speaker 5: tackles and their passes defense return, I mean, that's almost

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Speaker 5: been chopped in half. But they did post top twenty

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Speaker 5: five in all the five factors that it's important. But

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Speaker 5: here's the reason I like the WINT to over eight

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Speaker 5: and a half more than I like the Conference, and

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Speaker 5: that is because listen, they don't play Fresno from the West.

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Speaker 5: That's great, that's something that you have to handicap. But

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Speaker 5: they do win the season with San Diego State. They

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Speaker 5: have a revenge game with Utah State that they lost

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Speaker 5: last year. The problem is that game comes after Navy,

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Speaker 5: and if you look at Air Force's history, they've lost

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Speaker 5: three of their last four the week after they've played Navy.

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Speaker 5: Are you really up for you for Utah State and

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Speaker 5: thinking that's a revenge game when you're coming off of

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Speaker 5: a Service Academy game. I feel much more comfortable than

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Speaker 5: over eight and a half than I do on the

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Speaker 5: entire Mountain West I NLO.

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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on the Falcons.

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Speaker 6: I love them. I don't know that I'm going to

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Speaker 6: play them to win the Mountain West, but I actually

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Speaker 6: do like them to win the division, which I believe

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Speaker 6: is plus two hundred at DraftKings Shop round, so you

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Speaker 6: find that better. But this is why I don't like

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Speaker 6: Boise to be in the conference side game, because I

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Speaker 6: think it's gonna be air force. For everything you said

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Speaker 6: as Danielis Brad Roberts, this offense is going to hum

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Speaker 6: just like you did last year. The defense, you know,

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Speaker 6: they lose Trede Bugs, they lose Demonte Mique. Those are

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Speaker 6: big pieces. But I'm not super worried about the defense.

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Speaker 6: You know, I think Service academies I feel like I

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Speaker 6: don't know if Colin feels this way, but I always

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Speaker 6: feel like returning production like matters kind of the least

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Speaker 6: the Service academies because they're going to plug in like

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Speaker 6: a twenty four year old and be fine, especially on defense.

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Speaker 6: And you mentioned it, it's the schedule, it's you know

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Speaker 6: they got I know this doesn't count for as going

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Speaker 6: to the conference title, but the non kind is super easy.

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Speaker 6: They get Navy at home, they get Army in Texas,

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Speaker 6: so they don't have a play a Service academy on

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Speaker 6: the road all year. They get Boise stayed at home.

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Speaker 6: You mentioned they avoid Fresno until the conference title game,

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Speaker 6: which is why I'm not taking them to win it.

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Speaker 6: But I do love I do love the over, and

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Speaker 6: I do love them to win the division. I'm all

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Speaker 6: in on the Falcons. Yeah.

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Speaker 5: And one thing I forgot to mention is when I

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Speaker 5: said that Boise State has the hardest schedule of offenses,

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Speaker 5: Air Force has the easiest schedule of offenses of anybody

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Speaker 5: in the Mountain West. Average sp plus ranking of the

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Speaker 5: offenses on their schedule one hundred and six. So I'm

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Speaker 5: not really worried about the air Force defense at all.

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Speaker 1: They get hearing it right there.

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Speaker 2: That encapsulates, you know, our passion for the over on

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Speaker 2: this one. So we'll book that as one of our

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Speaker 2: best bets here right out of the gate transitioning to

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Speaker 2: another team that was really a surprise down the stretch.

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Speaker 2: As I and Ella mentioned at the top, Utah State

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Speaker 2: plus seven to fifty to win the Mountain West. Here

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Speaker 2: six and a half wins minus one forty to the

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Speaker 2: over seventy third in their S and P plus projection

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Speaker 2: on offense, one hundred and seventh on defense.

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Speaker 1: Listen, these guys went eleven and three last year. They

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Speaker 1: bring back Logan Bonner.

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Speaker 2: Obviously they need to replace Tompkins, but you know, Anderson

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Speaker 2: has been kind of a miracle worker, and the fact

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Speaker 2: that he brings in talented transfers, particularly at wide receiver

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Speaker 2: Brington Brian Cobbs from Maryland and Xavier Williams from Alabama.

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Speaker 2: I believe in Blake, so I think he's going to

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Speaker 2: be able to keep this team above that six win threshold.

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Speaker 2: I would actually be surprised if they were at six

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Speaker 2: and six or worse. So I think that's why it's

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Speaker 2: juiced in this way. Minus one forty is kind of punitive,

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Speaker 2: but I'm probably going to go with the over here,

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Speaker 2: and that's like, obviously the defense has a lot of holes.

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Speaker 2: There's going to be some issues in terms of replacing

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Speaker 2: what they lost last season, but this is a team

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Speaker 2: that played really well down the stretch, save for.

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Speaker 1: That really weird rivalry game against Wyoming where they just

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Speaker 1: didn't show up.

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Speaker 2: But all the way through their bowl game, you know,

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Speaker 2: they'd beat an a quality of Oregon State team, So

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Speaker 2: I'm surprised that this win total is set here.

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Speaker 1: I get it. They play at Alabama, they play at

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Speaker 1: the Way. Let's just talk those up as two losses.

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Speaker 2: They also get Yukon and Leaper State in the non conference,

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Speaker 2: so that's two and two right there. I don't necessarily

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Speaker 2: see that, as you know, they're going to get physically

295
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Speaker 2: beat up so badly by those two top twenty five

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Speaker 2: teams that it's going to have a lingering effect on

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Speaker 2: their season. I know, what do you think about Utah State?

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Speaker 2: Were you surprised to see six and a half as

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Speaker 2: the number?

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Speaker 6: I was surprised. I definitely think the regression monsters coming

301
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Speaker 6: for them. They they're one of those teams that they'd

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Speaker 6: win a lot of games, and they're like, how the

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Speaker 6: hell do they win that game? They were good, but

304
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Speaker 6: very lucky. Sometimes saying they were lucky almost comes off

305
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Speaker 6: as an insult. I think Blake Anderson is a phenomenal coach.

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Speaker 6: I think guys love him. You saw at Arkansas State.

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Speaker 6: You saw as soon as he came to test, how

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Speaker 6: many guys followed him here. You know, obviously he's got

309
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Speaker 6: a great story or you know, Batan for his wife

310
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Speaker 6: and stuff like that. So I do think they're well

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Speaker 6: coached and that contributes to the luck. But they were

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Speaker 6: very lucky, and I think that's coming down to earth.

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Speaker 6: I'm with you. I don't think it comes down that hard.

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Speaker 6: I think they're a bold team, especially with Logan Bonner back.

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Speaker 6: He was with him at Arkansas State. So this is

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Speaker 6: why his third or fourth year in Anderson system, they

317
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Speaker 6: got Levi Williams transferred over to so that that will

318
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Speaker 6: help if just in case, you know, something happens Calvin

319
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Speaker 6: Tyler still there, I'll probably not play it. But I

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Speaker 6: think you're on the right side with you over. I

321
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Speaker 6: don't think they fall off that much.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, talking about Blake Anderson high tempo, eleventh

323
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Speaker 5: of the nation, twenty three seconds, twenty three seconds per play,

324
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Speaker 5: he moves even faster off the field if you keep

325
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Speaker 5: up with that kind of stuff. Listen, this this whole

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Speaker 5: season is a story in three parts. Right, We've got

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Speaker 5: a really bookended two easy games around Alabama.

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Speaker 3: There's two buys on this schedule.

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Speaker 5: The middle part of the schedule is absolutely brutal, with

330
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Speaker 5: three row games that include BYU Colorado State Air Force

331
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Speaker 5: is sandwiched in between that, and then they get another

332
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Speaker 5: bye week and they end the season New Mexico, Hawaii,

333
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Speaker 5: San Jose State, and then Boise State. So really this

334
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Speaker 5: schedule comes in three parts. Now, my question about Blake

335
00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:20,520
Speaker 5: Anderson's system is is he going to catch any defensive

336
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Speaker 5: coordinators in the Mountain West by surprise like they did

337
00:14:23,160 --> 00:14:25,360
Speaker 5: last year. If you've got a defensive line that can

338
00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:27,520
Speaker 5: rush three and drop eight, you're going to give him

339
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Speaker 5: a lot of issues. I actually project this at five

340
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Speaker 5: point nine. I've seen the six and a half out there,

341
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Speaker 5: and when we talk about regression, second order win total

342
00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,800
Speaker 5: is a really big deal when you're doing win tots

343
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Speaker 5: for the following season, and that means how lucky were

344
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Speaker 5: you the year before? They won three games last year

345
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Speaker 5: by four points or less. I think regression is big

346
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Speaker 5: time coming for them. I think these defensive coordinators get

347
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Speaker 5: to lick their chops and take shot at this. And

348
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Speaker 5: so I'm going to say under here, under on the seven,

349
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Speaker 5: I'm going to disagree with Calgary's here.

350
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Speaker 2: I'll remove my rose colored glasses for the Aggies and

351
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Speaker 2: look at a team that I think I could argue

352
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Speaker 2: for against high school mock debate style Colorado State coming

353
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Speaker 2: in fifty to one to win the Mountain West. Here

354
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Speaker 2: six wins as their win total, one hundred and eighteenth

355
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Speaker 2: as their projection on offense just because there's so many

356
00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,880
Speaker 2: faces there, fiftieth for their defensive efficiency projection for S.

357
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Speaker 1: And P plus.

358
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Speaker 2: Listen, Jane Orvel arrives with seven transfers in his back

359
00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,440
Speaker 2: pocket from Nevada, most notably Clay Millen, a former four

360
00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:27,440
Speaker 2: star recruit, but he has, you know, limited experience. Is

361
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Speaker 2: putting it kindly, Tory Horton, Milkwon Stovevall and tie.

362
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Speaker 1: I think it's McCulloch time. McCulloch, Yes, Dante Wright.

363
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,520
Speaker 2: This receiving corps has all the makings of being the

364
00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,680
Speaker 2: deepest receiving corps in the Mountain West. So if Millan

365
00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:46,680
Speaker 2: turns out to be the height, you know, high school

366
00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:48,480
Speaker 2: phenom that he's supposed to be, at least by G

367
00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,480
Speaker 2: five standards, I think you could really see some things happening.

368
00:15:51,520 --> 00:15:53,920
Speaker 2: Oh wait, hold on, I'm just hearing they have zero

369
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Speaker 2: returning starters in the offensive line. So in one other

370
00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,400
Speaker 2: team nationally that is going to pull that offense, Virginia

371
00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,000
Speaker 2: and they have mobile quarterback, so Brendan Armstrong can run

372
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Speaker 2: for his life all season long.

373
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Speaker 1: And the acc zero.

374
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Speaker 2: Returning starters in the old line with a redshirt freshman quarterback.

375
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Speaker 2: All right, I'm starting to reel back the enthusiasm a

376
00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:12,440
Speaker 2: little bit here. You also look at Michigan and Wazoo

377
00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:14,720
Speaker 2: in the non conference. I think they're going to get

378
00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:17,240
Speaker 2: beat up there. But this is a team of putting

379
00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,520
Speaker 2: in my back pocket. If they do have a rough September,

380
00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:22,120
Speaker 2: if Michigan and Wazoo laid big numbers on them and

381
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:25,600
Speaker 2: they can't compete Nevada on October eighth, that's my bounce

382
00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,560
Speaker 2: back game for them, and obviously going to be a

383
00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:32,720
Speaker 2: rivalry renewed there with Norvel's departure and everything else that

384
00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:36,520
Speaker 2: went down. Tollara say, maybe the most interesting team, maybe

385
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 2: not for good reasons.

386
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Speaker 1: This is a stay away for me. You guys haven't

387
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Speaker 1: played in either direction.

388
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,120
Speaker 5: When we talk about regression coming up against Utah State

389
00:16:43,160 --> 00:16:44,960
Speaker 5: and how it's going to hit them this year, it's

390
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,560
Speaker 5: the opposite. For Colorado State. They lost three games by

391
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:48,480
Speaker 5: five points or less.

392
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Speaker 3: Last year.

393
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,800
Speaker 5: They were one hundred and fifteenth in offensive finishing drives,

394
00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:53,120
Speaker 5: I know it's a new coach. I know it's a

395
00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:55,680
Speaker 5: new regime. I know the transfer portals there, but I mean,

396
00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,800
Speaker 5: there's just too much change. This was a great number at.

397
00:16:58,640 --> 00:16:59,360
Speaker 3: Five or less.

398
00:16:59,440 --> 00:17:01,160
Speaker 5: At five and half, you can't take it because look

399
00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:04,560
Speaker 5: at the home wins Middle Tennessee, Sacramento State, Hawaii.

400
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:06,600
Speaker 3: I own New Mexico. That's five.

401
00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:08,720
Speaker 5: At five and a half, you can't play it. I

402
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:10,280
Speaker 5: don't think you can get to six. And there's too

403
00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:11,480
Speaker 5: much trouble so in the past.

404
00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,760
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's just too much uncertainty. Like you said, Clem

405
00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,919
Speaker 6: Miland has virtually no experience. They lose their leading Russia

406
00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 6: leading receiver. I agree with that. I like they did

407
00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,520
Speaker 6: in the receiver portal, but it's still all new guys.

408
00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:24,919
Speaker 6: You know, Novel is bringing in his air raid system.

409
00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,120
Speaker 6: They're switching to a four two five defense, so they're

410
00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:32,240
Speaker 6: kind of revamping the entire system. No offensive line, So

411
00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:34,280
Speaker 6: I'm out. I don't know say I'm out on them,

412
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:37,400
Speaker 6: but they're definitely a wait and see, like you said,

413
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,520
Speaker 6: I think I think I'll be on them for sure

414
00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:41,920
Speaker 6: against Nevada and then they're you know, let's le's see

415
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,120
Speaker 6: if they get frisky late in the year, But yeah,

416
00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:45,600
Speaker 6: I got nothing for Calorio State.

417
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,320
Speaker 5: The way that you play Colorado State this year is

418
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:51,000
Speaker 5: that you let get their heads pounded in in September

419
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,680
Speaker 5: against Michigan and Washington State. You let their power rating

420
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:55,720
Speaker 5: fall and you let the world think that their garbage.

421
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:57,520
Speaker 5: When they come off the by against Nevada, you just

422
00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:58,679
Speaker 5: hammer them all right.

423
00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:01,760
Speaker 1: Speaking of the transfer portal, let's talk Wyoming. They're fifty

424
00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:04,440
Speaker 1: to one to win the Mountain West five wins as

425
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,320
Speaker 1: their win total one hundred and nineteenth projection on offense,

426
00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:08,440
Speaker 1: seventy eighth on defense.

427
00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:11,800
Speaker 2: The portal giveth and taketh away. It took away from

428
00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,439
Speaker 2: the Pokes. Wyoming was just decimated in the offseason. Tyaswin

429
00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:17,479
Speaker 2: is the only thing they have left. They have two

430
00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:21,360
Speaker 2: returning starters in the offensive line. His backfield mate Valide

431
00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 2: transfers to Arizona State. I think there's a good chance

432
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:26,399
Speaker 2: from a college fantasy perspective, he could be one of

433
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,480
Speaker 2: those diamonds in the rough, but they're just going to

434
00:18:28,920 --> 00:18:31,320
Speaker 2: ride him into the wheels come off and only five

435
00:18:31,880 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 2: returning starters on defense, they were great against the pass

436
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,359
Speaker 2: last year, but they need to replace both starting quarterbacks

437
00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,240
Speaker 2: just everywhere I look, it looks like bad news. You know,

438
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:43,360
Speaker 2: new quarterback, lots of issues here. Craig Bowl has been

439
00:18:43,680 --> 00:18:46,000
Speaker 2: so steady for them in the eight years that he's

440
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:47,560
Speaker 2: been in layer of me. But I think this is

441
00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,120
Speaker 2: what I'm going to play under. I'm surprised that they're

442
00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,200
Speaker 2: actually one hundred and nineteenth in projection on offense. I

443
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 2: think it could be so ugly this year for the Cowboys. Colin,

444
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,000
Speaker 2: Do you think there's any reasons other than what I

445
00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,439
Speaker 2: listed off to maybe view this in a more optimistic

446
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,840
Speaker 2: light or Am I being rightfully pessimistic here?

447
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:07,280
Speaker 3: No, you're rightfully pessimistic.

448
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 5: It seems like this entire roster depleted and spread out

449
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,560
Speaker 5: across of alive. But yeah, so this is a no

450
00:19:12,680 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 5: plan lean to the under five here. It's just to

451
00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 5: minus one twenty five. I don't like laying minus one

452
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 5: twenty five for entire seasonsus.

453
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:19,600
Speaker 3: I really feel good about it.

454
00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 5: I think the one thing I'll say about Wyoming is

455
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,719
Speaker 5: there in their third year of their defensive coordinator Jay Sovel,

456
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 5: and they have gone down in defensive havoc. Every single

457
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,680
Speaker 5: season is going the wrong direction. I'm not sure what's

458
00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:34,320
Speaker 5: going on. You know, with the Craig Bowl era, the campaign,

459
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,160
Speaker 5: I'm not sure how much wonder he's gonna be there

460
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 5: unless they start competing for conference championships and it ain't

461
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 5: happen this year.

462
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:43,320
Speaker 6: I love the under I love it. It might be

463
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:45,439
Speaker 6: my best bet in the whole conference. This team is

464
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:47,919
Speaker 6: going to be so bad. The vibes are just so

465
00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:50,720
Speaker 6: bad with Wyoming because it's not just that guy's left

466
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,120
Speaker 6: for the portal. It's easy to say, Okay, Isaiah Nayer

467
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:55,480
Speaker 6: had a great year. He went to Texas to play

468
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 6: in Sarks offense, try to be an NFL prospect? Makes sense,

469
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:01,760
Speaker 6: you know, Dan, I mean, Airs, do you want to

470
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 6: go to Arizona State right now? But also, okay, it's

471
00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,200
Speaker 6: power five kind of makes sense. Their starting quarterback left

472
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 6: to go to Montana State, and then Levi Williams had

473
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 6: one good game and was like, I'd rather be the

474
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 6: backup at Utah State and stay another moment. So they

475
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,800
Speaker 6: had like the fact that so much it has Hawaii vibes, like,

476
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 6: I don't know what Craig Bowl is doing, but the

477
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,119
Speaker 6: fact that every single player on this team was like,

478
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 6: I don't want to play here is a huge red flag.

479
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 6: Even last year, they won their first four games and

480
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,400
Speaker 6: then just tank. They were so bad down the stretch.

481
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 6: The vibes are really bad in Wyoming, and I'm hammering

482
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 6: the under All.

483
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 2: Right, Popes fans, if you're listening, if you feel like

484
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:40,439
Speaker 2: we're piling on, don't worry.

485
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 1: Just in time, Here comes the preview of New.

486
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,960
Speaker 2: Mexico and one hundred to one to win the Mountain

487
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 2: West two and a half wins, one hundred and thirty

488
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,439
Speaker 2: first in their offensive projection, which I think is too high,

489
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:55,000
Speaker 2: seventy fourth on defense. They scored in the Year of

490
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 2: Our Lord twenty twenty one twelve point two points per game.

491
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 2: They scored fewer than two tons in every sixty minute

492
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 2: game that they played in last season, they played six

493
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 2: different quarterbacks. Nathaniel Jones, God bless him. For some reason,

494
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 2: he signed on the dotted line with the Lobos. He

495
00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 2: wanted to be in the land of enchantment, where anything

496
00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:15,639
Speaker 2: could happen. He's the third highest recruiting program history. For

497
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 2: some reason, maybe someone didn't read to him the fine

498
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: print of the transfer portal. You can just leave and

499
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 2: go wherever you want, start a whole new life, be

500
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:24,119
Speaker 2: happy in a winning program.

501
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,119
Speaker 1: He decided to stay. That's all they got if Maine

502
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 1: beats them in the opener, and Maine is basically you know,

503
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:34,399
Speaker 1: by FCS standards, you know they're fine. They're like a

504
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,360
Speaker 1: team that wins like six or seven games a year.

505
00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 1: Sometimes they pop up to eight or nine. They'll probably

506
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 1: be a seven to five team this year. He's got

507
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 1: a puncher's chance if they beat them in this opener.

508
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 2: New Mexico's going to go winless this year, and maybe

509
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 2: they should just shut the whole program down. Go Tarlton

510
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 2: State style, go to a lower level of football.

511
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 1: This is the worst team. This was my pick of

512
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 1: the year.

513
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 2: Last year, I picked Boise State to cover. I believe

514
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 2: it was twenty eight points as a favorite against them.

515
00:21:58,160 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 2: Last year, Boise won thirty seven nothing.

516
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 1: It was such a joy to bet against an offense

517
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 1: that incompetent. They have no reason for optimism this year

518
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 1: two and a half, I'm.

519
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 2: Going to go the under, just because it's very rare

520
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,679
Speaker 2: at that and under on a team this slow, and

521
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 2: I know that a lot of us got burned last

522
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 2: year by Louisiana Monroe.

523
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 1: I'm going to go back to the well and going

524
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 1: under on the Lobos here? What do you think calling one.

525
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 3: Hundred percent with you?

526
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 5: I was at Big ten media Days getting the prep

527
00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:25,919
Speaker 5: going in for this, and I said, holy cow, I

528
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,639
Speaker 5: gotta get a dime down and going against the Lobos.

529
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,640
Speaker 5: What is this projection? Tell me if I'm crazy here,

530
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 5: they're going to be favored like by five and a

531
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 5: half over Maine, all right, and then you look, what

532
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:38,120
Speaker 5: is the only other winnable game on the schedule, New

533
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,119
Speaker 5: Mexico State. You're not beating New Mexico State. Jerry Kill's

534
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,119
Speaker 5: got it going there. We're not gonna have an independent podcast,

535
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:44,679
Speaker 5: but let me just throw out some um on the

536
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,400
Speaker 5: award winning Action app. I've already taken them against Nevada,

537
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 5: taking the thirteen points. Go find that number. I think

538
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 5: they can win that game out right. And in this game,

539
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 5: they shouldn't be an underdog, but they might be a

540
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 5: pick or an underdog. They can win this game against

541
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 5: New Mexico. And you say, callin, how can this TV

542
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 5: is bad? Danny Gonzalez is a head coach. One game

543
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:04,639
Speaker 5: last year, one game that even the todsmakers can't catch

544
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 5: up with. How bad Danny Gonzalez is doing? I mean

545
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 5: him and Rocky Long the coach defense all day. This

546
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 5: is the third different offense in their third year. They

547
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 5: don't have the personnel, they don't have the pieces less

548
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 5: than forty five returning on both sides of the ball.

549
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 5: Find me three games on this schedule, right, I understand

550
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 5: the ULM. All right, it's easy in the Sun Belt.

551
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 5: This isn't the Sun Belt, all right, I understand that

552
00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 5: last year, but this is they are got off. If

553
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 5: is worse than them, put the two teams in a bowl,

554
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 5: I've got to see it played.

555
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 6: I'll think five and a half points with him. You

556
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 6: mentioned the Sunbelt. This is like the tole opposite where

557
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 6: the Sunbelt. I felt like there was you know, we

558
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 6: could make an argument for probably what seven maybe teams

559
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 6: to win the Sunbelt. You can make an argument for

560
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,439
Speaker 6: like three teams to win the Mountain West. And the

561
00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 6: bottom half of the Mountain West is so bad. So

562
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 6: there's gonna be some juice win totals throughout the top

563
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 6: of this conference because the bottom half of the Mountain

564
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 6: West is so bad. And we'll continue to talk that'll

565
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:01,439
Speaker 6: be the team in this pot. It's just we're just

566
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 6: going to continue to be like this team is horrible.

567
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:12,439
Speaker 7: Down lich manson tomorrow morning. Not be a bump. It

568
00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 7: doesn't matter which direction though I don't know Mexico, Come Steers.

569
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 2: We're at the halfway mark here we get, you know,

570
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 2: a bit of a palate cleanser. We switched from the

571
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 2: Mountain to the West Division. We're looking at good teams again.

572
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 1: We're looking at arguably the best team in the mountainest

573
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 1: that's Fresno State. They're coming in at two to one.

574
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 1: Maybe get plus two twenty five. The shop around a

575
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 1: little bit eight and.

576
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 2: A half wins minus one forty juice to the over

577
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 2: SV plus projection. Twenty seventh defense, fifty eighth on defense.

578
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 2: Jeff Tedford's back in the San juel Quin Valley, baby,

579
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 2: and he's got j Hayner really talented wide receivers headlined

580
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 2: by Jalen Cropper. The defense was decent last year and

581
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 2: returns virtually their entire back seven attacks headlined by Van Williams.

582
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 1: Safety. They have a super manageable ret run at the end.

583
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 2: Why at UNLV at Nevada Home and Wyoming. That looks

584
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:08,400
Speaker 2: pretty nice. So then, honestly, as going through the schedule,

585
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,639
Speaker 2: I went, you know, back to front looking at the

586
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 2: way that it closes, I start to turn my attention.

587
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 1: Could this be the New Year six representative from the

588
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 1: G five class?

589
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 2: They opened cal Poly nice lit preseason game Oregon State,

590
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 2: and then they traveled to the coliseum to play USC.

591
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 2: I'm not going to say much more because I know

592
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 2: you love this team. You love this quarterback I l

593
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 2: so I want to give you plenty of room to

594
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 2: create your own offense. Here tell me why first of

595
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:34,080
Speaker 2: the state's going to win the conference and why they're

596
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 2: probably going to be finally the breakthrough Mountain West team

597
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 2: for that New Year's six bid.

598
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,360
Speaker 6: Jake Hayner season and full of fact, lock it up

599
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 6: plus three hundred to win the conference. Not the best number,

600
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 6: I don't care. I'd play him a plus one hundred

601
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 6: because they're winning the conference and win a plus one hundred,

602
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 6: it's better than not winning it. I love this team.

603
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 6: I don't think we can qualify Jake Hayner as the

604
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 6: Bailey's Appy Memorial winner because Zappi we were on when

605
00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 6: no one knew who he was. I might buy Jake

606
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 6: Canter high Heisman ticket just for fun. I'm all in

607
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 6: on this team. We talked about, you know, Their only

608
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,719
Speaker 6: real loss is Ronnie Rivers. Jordan Mims pretty much outplayed

609
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 6: him down the stretch anyway, so is it really a loss.

610
00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 6: He was kind of the backup. By the end of

611
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:14,359
Speaker 6: the year. Dalen Cropper was second in the conference interceptions.

612
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 6: He's probably the best receiver in the whole conference. Now,

613
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,359
Speaker 6: with Romeo Dubs gone, you bring back Josh Kelly, Evan Williams,

614
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 6: probably the best safety in the conference. Their defense was

615
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,199
Speaker 6: really good last year. You mentioned it. They have a

616
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 6: new head coach. Is there any head coach in the

617
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 6: country with you know, less of a question mark than

618
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 6: ted for just stepping into his old team. They finished

619
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 6: ninth in the country and passing last year. I think

620
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 6: this is going to be one of the best offenses,

621
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 6: probably the best offense in the G five. The rest

622
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 6: of this comedy we talked about it is so bad.

623
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,639
Speaker 6: If Jaykner stays healthy, the skuy's the limit for this team.

624
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:46,240
Speaker 6: I'm all in on the Bulldogs.

625
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 5: It's important to go back and look at the Ted

626
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 5: Ford running when he was here from twenty seventeen to

627
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 5: twenty nineteen. He went seven and one against the Square

628
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 5: when he was under He is a great coach. When

629
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 5: his back is up against the wall. Over eight and

630
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 5: a half is the play for me. Since I power

631
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 5: rated nine point two and I believe sp plus has

632
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 5: it at ten point three, feel much more comfortable with

633
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:07,120
Speaker 5: an over eight and a half. This is the easiest

634
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 5: schedule in college football when it comes to November Hawaii, unov, Nevada,

635
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,080
Speaker 5: and Wayoming, So I feel much more comfortable than over

636
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 5: eight and a half than I do taking this odds

637
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 5: So they absolutely should be where they are in the

638
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 5: odds market.

639
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 3: As far as winning the Mountain.

640
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 5: West, it's just not a number that I want to

641
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 5: get into when I think the wind total has a

642
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 5: better chance of Yeah, you know, cash in my ticket

643
00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 5: When they post Fresno USC, listen, I don't care if

644
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 5: that number sety seven or eighty one.

645
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 3: Lay it. Don't even think about it.

646
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 5: On Sunday night, you say God, the Fresno USC opener

647
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 5: came at seventy seven and a half.

648
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 6: Lay it over for reference, Preslo State USTLA last year

649
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 6: was forty to thirty seven and Jay Caner was playing

650
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 6: on one leg, and.

651
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,680
Speaker 2: I did call that upset. Just to give the group

652
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 2: of five deep dive the juice it deserves. You know

653
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 2: with beat Oregon, Do I know that they were right there?

654
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 2: All right, let's transition to easily my favorite what I

655
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:00,640
Speaker 2: like to affectionately refer to is half team of the

656
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 2: Mountain West that San Diego State plus seven to fifty

657
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 2: to win the Mountain West Conference seven and a half

658
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 2: wins as their win total minus one fourty in the

659
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 2: juice on over And why do I call him a

660
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 2: half team? Well, offensively S and P plus they're one

661
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 2: hundred and seventeenth. Defensively they're twelfth. That is tied for

662
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 2: the largest differential in all of college football coming of

663
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 2: the season with second reference, this time for the Wahoos

664
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 2: of Virginia, So they can be playing in some high

665
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 2: scoring games. To flip it around San Diego, say, listen,

666
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 2: Braxton Burmeister, he's in at quarterback, a new quarterback for

667
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 2: the fourth straight year. Jesse Matthews and Tyrrell Shavers actually

668
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 2: pretty solid one two punch if they get some competent

669
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:42,479
Speaker 2: quarterback play. So I'm starting to feel maybe like single

670
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 2: digits for the offense, maybe get into the nineties a

671
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 2: little bit. And then defensively, I know Cam Thomas is

672
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 2: out on d but justice to Bai comes in from

673
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 2: Why on d line. Cooper McDonald comes in from Washington

674
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 2: at linebacker, joins an already very experienced defense and one

675
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 2: of my favorite defense coordinators in the entire country, Kurt Maddox.

676
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: He's going to make it all go. It's going to

677
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 1: be very similar defensively.

678
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 2: I think teams are going to have a difficult time

679
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 2: finishing drives against the Aztecs.

680
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 1: I like them over this win total. I just can't

681
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 1: do it.

682
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 2: To myself being forced emotionally to watch this offense just

683
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 2: sputter for the entire year. Maybe maybe Burmeister is the guy,

684
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 2: but I watched multiple quarterbacks try to be the.

685
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 1: Guy last year and none of them really have any success.

686
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 2: I know this is one of these sado masochistic things

687
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 2: you like to do to yourself. Collins, is you know,

688
00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 2: betting the overlive? I know you're going to do the

689
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: same thing this fall. Where's your optimism going into the season.

690
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 5: Well, the fact that our punt god matterrizes no longer.

691
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 5: With the teams that the offenses are going to face

692
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 5: is going to get better field position and a better

693
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 5: chance to score. So Colin Wilson is not stopping on

694
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 5: betting the over in San Diego State games whatsoever. I

695
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 5: think what I'm kind of disappointed is they're opening up

696
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 5: this new snap Dragon Stadium in case you didn't know.

697
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 5: They were always driving over an hour to play home games.

698
00:29:52,720 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 5: But the problem is they're at Boys either at Fresno,

699
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 5: so they don't get the biggest games if they need

700
00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:00,440
Speaker 5: at home. Jordan byrdturner punt returner might one of the

701
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 5: best specialists in all the G five, maybe in the nation.

702
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 5: Burmeister is really why I'm optimistic about taking end game

703
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:11,000
Speaker 5: overs and pregame overs because he had two years of order,

704
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 5: two years.

705
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 3: Of Virginia Tech.

706
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 5: Last year he finally figured out a fourteen to four

707
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 5: t to it int ratio. He had double the number

708
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 5: of big time throws the turnover he plays. He had

709
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 5: the highest average depth of target in his career last

710
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 5: year at Virginia Tech. I'm kind of bullsh on Burmeister.

711
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 5: But the problem is I projected seven point two, no

712
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 5: play on seven point five. But you can bet you're

713
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 5: gonna see a lot of Aztecs come to the action

714
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 5: app this year.

715
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 6: I feel like I was the resident San Diego State

716
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 6: hater last year. I was always down on them. I'll

717
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 6: be honest. I love Colin Stock. I rolled my eyes

718
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 6: every time Colin started talking about San Diego State over

719
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 6: so I was like, he's just throw away his money.

720
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 6: You can just bend on me. He went onto something

721
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:49,560
Speaker 6: this year. I think Burmeister is a massive upgrade over

722
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 6: brooks Shire and Johnson. You know, obviously we can look

723
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 6: in hindsight and say it was a stupid decision and

724
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 6: probably gotten fired. But just the point they basically picked

725
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 6: Burmeister Overhendon, Hooker and Burnmeister wasn't that bad. You know,

726
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 6: fourteen touchdowns, four interceptions. You mentioned Jesse Matthews and Tyrrel

727
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 6: Shavers returning. I think this is huge for Tyrrel Shavers.

728
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 6: When I was going to do my notes this year,

729
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 6: I was looking at my notes from last year and

730
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 6: I had Shavers written down last year as a breakout candidate.

731
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 6: He really wasn't because that often they just couldn't throw

732
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 6: the ball. This is a six foot six, former four

733
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:21,680
Speaker 6: star recruit coming from Mississippi State, started at Alabama. I

734
00:31:21,760 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 6: think Burmeister is gonna really open up Tyrrel Shavers really

735
00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 6: start pushing the ball downfield. Something Santio State could not

736
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 6: do at all. And you know, we know what this

737
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 6: defense is gonna be. It's been nasty every year they

738
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 6: ati thely lose Cameron Thomas. One thing you didn't even

739
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 6: mention Breeze about Toabaya and Cooper McDonald's coming over is

740
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 6: they came over to join their brothers, who are probably

741
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 6: the two best players already on this defense. So I

742
00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,640
Speaker 6: love that fact, you know, family connection. I think that's

743
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 6: super fun. I do like the over and I hate

744
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,360
Speaker 6: San Diego State, but I love I'm taking over seven

745
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:52,959
Speaker 6: and seven and a half. And I love the new

746
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 6: snap Dragon Stadium. I think it's gonna be awesome having

747
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 6: that right down town. I think I think I'm all

748
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 6: in on the Aztecs this year, and I'm usually not.

749
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 6: Has there ever been a team in the country where

750
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:05,080
Speaker 6: losing their punter is significantly more important than the fact

751
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:06,120
Speaker 6: they lost their quarterback?

752
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 2: Matt Eraza, you will always be number one in our

753
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 2: hearts and missus Eriza, if you're still listening, I appreciate it.

754
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 2: Tell a friend, tell an enemy all that good stuff.

755
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 2: San Jose State twenty to one to win the Mountain

756
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 2: West six and a half wins as a win total

757
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 2: minus one thirty two to the under one hundred and

758
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 2: first SMP plus projection on offense fifty nine defense. Cordero

759
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 2: comes in from Hawaii, roses boat to the Mainlands. Can

760
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 2: he be an established quarterback for him?

761
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 1: Join him? Elijah Cooks.

762
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 2: The Nevada transfer nine starters back from a pretty solid

763
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 2: defense last year that was really good at stuff in

764
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 2: the run.

765
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: They were five and four last year. They looked like

766
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 1: a bowl team out in the Mountain West.

767
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 2: They lose their last three games, really not that competitive

768
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 2: in those three.

769
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 1: Arguably have the.

770
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 2: Best defensive line in the conference, which is interesting in

771
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 2: terms of their overall talent. And then when you look

772
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 2: at the start of the season, I think it's critical

773
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 2: for them to get off to a two to one start.

774
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 1: They get Portland State, they get.

775
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 2: Auburn, then a bye week, then they play a Western

776
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 2: Michigan team who potentially give them some issues when.

777
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 1: Western Michigan has the ball. I don't know.

778
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 2: Six and a half feels right. I feel like this

779
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 2: is a bowl team. So it's probably a pass for

780
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 2: me for Cardero to me, having watched him at Hawaii.

781
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 2: Everything that went wrong with Todd Grimm's regime, there's still

782
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:19,600
Speaker 2: certainly the Flashes. He had a strong arm. He was

783
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 2: a very solid runner as a dual threat. So can

784
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 2: they put it all together for San Say State team

785
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 2: that two years ago was a darling. You don't even

786
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 2: have to look that far back to see them put

787
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 2: it all together. So I'll start with you, Ianella, what

788
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 2: are your thoughts on the spartans here? Maybe rekindling a

789
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 2: little of that twenty twenty mager.

790
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 6: I don't want to see anything what's coming next, but

791
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 6: I did see a certain place him in the Action

792
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 6: Network app from a certain Colin Wilson. That scares the

793
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:46,120
Speaker 6: hell out of me, So I may back off my take.

794
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 6: Anyone listened to the podcast last year, Nos, I hate

795
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 6: Chevan Cordero. He stinks he's so inaccurate, He's so bad

796
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 6: at growing football. He completed like fifty percent of his

797
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 6: pass Let's here seventeen toime doowns eleven picks. I just

798
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 6: don't like them. I don't think they're that good. I think,

799
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 6: you know, the lose three offensive linemen. Their offense was

800
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 6: so bad last year, and I don't I don't see

801
00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 6: how it gets better with Cordero. You know, I'm sure

802
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 6: Colin hates Nick Starkell as an Arkansas guy, but I

803
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 6: don't think Cordero was better than Starkle. So the defense

804
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 6: would still be fine. So that will help them. You know,

805
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,800
Speaker 6: Kate Hall's back, Kyle Harmon's back, but this offense I

806
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:23,439
Speaker 6: think is just going to be really bad. Again.

807
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 5: The reason why Starkle was so good when he first

808
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:28,120
Speaker 5: got there is because the quarterback coach, Ryan Gunnerson, who

809
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 5: left CLA last year at Dorian Thompson Rofensive, had the

810
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 5: best year of his career for the Bruins. And I

811
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:35,879
Speaker 5: think it was all because the quarterback players. That's why

812
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 5: there was a little bit of a dipping what Starkle did.

813
00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 5: This is the highest TARP number on offense and defense

814
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:45,240
Speaker 5: from transfer portal in a returning production eighty two offense,

815
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 5: seventy six percent on defense. Nobody in the entire Mountain

816
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 5: West is as high as them, So they got a

817
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 5: massive power rating boost for me.

818
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 3: And then when you go past that, Yes they.

819
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 5: Do play you know in their divat for as at

820
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,399
Speaker 5: San Diego State, but there's no boising, there's no air

821
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 5: force from the Mountain on this schedule. That makes this

822
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 5: one of the easier schedules in the entire conference. I

823
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:05,840
Speaker 5: think the problem that I have with the schedule is

824
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 5: that they play ten consecutive games.

825
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 3: Their bye week is on September seventeenth. Who the hell

826
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:12,720
Speaker 3: set that up? Listen? I love Schevone.

827
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,439
Speaker 5: Cordero is a guy that's made Cole McDonald sit down.

828
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 5: You know, anybody that can see see Cole McDonald on

829
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 5: the bench and show you know what he's got. I

830
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 5: like him, and I do think a lot of that

831
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:24,880
Speaker 5: was Todd Grant because the strength of Chavon Cordero was

832
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:26,799
Speaker 5: really his legs and his running game, and you know,

833
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:28,759
Speaker 5: he just got confused on whether he was allowed to

834
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 5: leave the pocket or not. The offensive line returns just

835
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 5: fifty percent of their snaps. That's going to allow Cordero

836
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 5: to actually get outside the tackles and make something happen.

837
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 5: They return over eighty percent of their passing yards their

838
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 5: rushing yards, and they're going to be heavy favorites early

839
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 5: Portland State, Western Michigan, New Mexico State to be comfortable

840
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 5: favorites over UNLV.

841
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 3: Nevada, Hawaii. Then there's a handful of coin flip games.

842
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 5: So tell me why this is at six point five

843
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:55,360
Speaker 5: don't gas, guys, don't gasp. I've got this wind total

844
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 5: at nine point two at this two wins, and it's.

845
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 3: Too entire that it's that is two wins higher than.

846
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:05,240
Speaker 5: Sp plus at seven point two. So I have shed

847
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 5: two dimes over six and a half plus one fifteen.

848
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 5: I don't expect it to be pluging fifteen anymore. But

849
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:13,759
Speaker 5: look at the schedule. There are six games on this

850
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 5: schedule where they are comfortable comfortable favorites. Can they win

851
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 5: them out in the West, probably not going to Prosno

852
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 5: in San Diego State, But there are six easy the

853
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:26,360
Speaker 5: mid range comfortable more than one possession wins on this schedule.

854
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:27,800
Speaker 5: So you just I need one coin flip.

855
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 1: It's gonna happen.

856
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 6: You are much smarter than me. That is nine wins

857
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 6: is insane.

858
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 3: I'm sorry.

859
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 5: Have you gone and look at Brent Brennan's against the

860
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 5: spread record since he's gotten there.

861
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 3: He's fantastic. He's an amazing coach.

862
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:40,800
Speaker 1: This guy has made something out of absolutely nothing.

863
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 6: Cordero is not. Maybe he'll do it again, all right.

864
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 1: Before the whole show goes off the rails. One call

865
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: up question, because I'm not familiar with the construction progress

866
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 1: on their camps. I know they were playing that like

867
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,040
Speaker 1: half carved down stadium slash parking lot last year.

868
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 2: They like seventy five percent. They're gonna be fans on

869
00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 2: both sides of the field.

870
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 5: No, I think there's gonna be fans on And then

871
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 5: I'll throw a shout out to the Matrix casino right

872
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,319
Speaker 5: next to It's the worst casino in the state of California.

873
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 3: All right.

874
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: See, that's why we go to Colin because he's got deep,

875
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 1: deep cut tidbits like that. All right.

876
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:14,399
Speaker 2: We got three teams left spoiler alert and not very good.

877
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 2: Nevada fifty to one to win the Mountain West four

878
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 2: and a half wins as their win total one hundred

879
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 2: and twenty first projection on offense, one hundred.

880
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:21,320
Speaker 1: And third on defense.

881
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 2: Ah, they have six returning starters, not on offense or

882
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 2: defense total, they have six returning starters. I mean I

883
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 2: made the reference earlier in terms of teams getting gutted

884
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 2: by the portal, you know, Wyoming having so many players leave.

885
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 2: Forty five players exited this roster forty five, thirty three

886
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,839
Speaker 2: of which still at eligibility remaining. Now Ben Wilson takes

887
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,839
Speaker 2: over for Norvelle. Ken Wilson has been a football coach

888
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 2: as long as I've been alive. He was a GA

889
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 2: at North Central College D three in Illinois in nineteen

890
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 2: eighty six. This is his first head coaching job. I'm

891
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 2: not trying to throw a dirt on this guy's grave

892
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 2: before he coaches a single game. But there's a reason

893
00:37:57,800 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 2: why I got this job. It's because he's a Nevada lifeer.

894
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 2: He's been an assistant in the program for over twenty years.

895
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,839
Speaker 2: But he's totally screwed in this spot. This is such

896
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 2: a bad roster to walk into. Whether it's Nate Cox

897
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:11,560
Speaker 2: or Shane Ellingworth, it doesn't matter. They're gonna get by

898
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 2: probably you know what. Actually, they're not gonna get by

899
00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:17,280
Speaker 2: New Mexico State. They're gonna get They're gonna be a dogfight.

900
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,360
Speaker 2: They're gonna lose incarnate word. That's a win, sure, But

901
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 2: after that they're facing Iowa Air Force. They're gonna make

902
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 2: Iowa look like a high flying offense. This team is

903
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 2: in huge trouble. Four and a half is my I'm

904
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,799
Speaker 2: gonna have to start titling this the Arkansas State under

905
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 2: play of the season. This doesn't make any sense I'm

906
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 2: going under unabout it anyone. I think just to balance that,

907
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,440
Speaker 2: I analogy. You have them projected for seven wins this year,

908
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:45,399
Speaker 2: just trying to trying to balance at the pod.

909
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on the wolf Back?

910
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 6: No, they they're gonna be bad. Oh, and I'm saving

911
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 6: my Arkansas State under the conference for the next team

912
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 6: we're gonna talk about. But yeah, they lost everybody. And

913
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 6: I will say, I know you kind of poop poot

914
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 6: over kenwalls and shame on you. The amount of fans

915
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 6: do seem super excited about him. He is a Nevada liifer.

916
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 6: He was an assistant coach there for nineteen years, two

917
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 6: different sins in between that he was the associate ad

918
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 6: so he was the Oregon defensive coordinator last year. So

919
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:17,959
Speaker 6: I will say it does seem like Nevada are very

920
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 6: excited about him. So they're gonna suck, but I'm gonna

921
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:24,400
Speaker 6: try to be positive. They probably have the best kicker

922
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 6: in the conference.

923
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 2: So who what a better roster going into the season,

924
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:31,440
Speaker 2: This Nevada roster or the Texas State Fighting Armadillos in

925
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:33,880
Speaker 2: nineteen ninety one movie Necessary Roughness.

926
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 5: Well, they had the best kicker by far in the

927
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:38,320
Speaker 5: history of college football.

928
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:41,400
Speaker 1: So I'm correct him as that Daffy iolands. Absolutely, you

929
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:42,240
Speaker 1: know how to play.

930
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:45,759
Speaker 7: Those football like a goddamn wild man.

931
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 1: No, like a goddamn rock bracing page. And I saw

932
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 1: what you gotta do it You go lot there.

933
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 3: Ye'll tell you that.

934
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: Fucking hats off and yes, shit down the neck let

935
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:56,240
Speaker 1: us break.

936
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 5: I mean, listen, guys, this is the biggest underplay uh

937
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:01,840
Speaker 5: in the entire conference, of the entire podcast. If you

938
00:40:01,920 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 5: have a deliverable, find a five and bet the under.

939
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:06,919
Speaker 5: And I could go through the schedule and I could

940
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:08,840
Speaker 5: bore you with tart numbers. I could bore you with

941
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 5: a ton of shit, a lot of analytics, but let

942
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 5: me just be honest. Ken Wilson wants to run the

943
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 5: ball in a place where all they've done lately is

944
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 5: past the ball. The new offensive coordinator is Derek Sage.

945
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 3: He was at EUCLA.

946
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 5: That's a team that loved lining up multiple running backs,

947
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,759
Speaker 5: play action to the tight end. There is nothing about

948
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 5: running go routes in this offense that is coming up.

949
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 5: So we're getting a complete scheme change. Not only has

950
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 5: Jane Norvil gone, he took all the players via transfer portal,

951
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 5: non scholarship players in the too deep on defense under five.

952
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,280
Speaker 5: I don't know how odds makers are set in that number.

953
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 5: I've hit it a few times. The juice is moving.

954
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 5: I guarantee by the time we kick off is not

955
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:44,839
Speaker 5: going to be five.

956
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:46,439
Speaker 3: Go grab it, all right.

957
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:48,240
Speaker 1: Moving on to the bottom of the barrel.

958
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 2: Here in the Mountain West West Division, UNLV hundred to

959
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 2: one to win the whole thing four and a half

960
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 2: as their win total minus one thirty to be under

961
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 2: the projection on offense is pretty ugly. One hundred and

962
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 2: fourteenth doesn't get much better on defense ninety four. Listen,

963
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 2: they were two and ten last year, but they were

964
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 2: two and two down the streps, so you can look

965
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:05,799
Speaker 2: at that in a positive light. They threw Scare into

966
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,360
Speaker 2: San Diego State. Harrison Bailey walks through the door. I

967
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 2: know they've been through this many times, had their heart

968
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:13,719
Speaker 2: broken by the transfer portal. And this savior quarterback that's

969
00:41:13,719 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 2: supposed to come in, big kid, Big Arm, got kind

970
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 2: of a raw deal at Tennessee. Potentially, you know, he

971
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 2: could have gone a lot of places, a lot of

972
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:24,040
Speaker 2: big name programs, but he's here at Jonelvey. They have

973
00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 2: a lot of returning experience from a defense that could

974
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 2: crawl their way into the eighties in major metrics. I

975
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 2: think that's reasonable. The offensive line also went from god

976
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 2: awful in twenty twenty to just regular bad last year.

977
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 2: So and they returned four starters there, maybe they're okay.

978
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 2: They grab Idaho State, North Texas, and New Mexico at home,

979
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 2: it could be three wins, still looking at four and

980
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:45,320
Speaker 2: a half as the wind total.

981
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 1: So where did they get the rest of those?

982
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:50,760
Speaker 2: You could also look optimistically Utah State, Texas, San Antonio,

983
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 2: and San Diego State all close losses last year. So

984
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 2: are they on the cusp as Royo positioned them to

985
00:41:55,760 --> 00:42:00,120
Speaker 2: turn the corner with great facilities? Obviously their stadium is

986
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,840
Speaker 2: is gorgeous. They should be, you know, on the rise,

987
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:04,839
Speaker 2: but this season they got to get to at least

988
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 2: five or six wins to build on that positive momentum.

989
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 2: I'll kick it to you first, Ianello. You were teasing

990
00:42:09,360 --> 00:42:11,360
Speaker 2: this is this one of your big underplays.

991
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 6: It's not actually, oh okay, here we go.

992
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 1: So there is some oppose.

993
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 6: I'm bullish on you and no V I don't know

994
00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 6: that I can convince myself to bet they're over, but

995
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 6: I would do it before I bet the under, and

996
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 6: they're definitely a team I'm gonna pick spots to bet

997
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 6: this year. Maybe I'm a sucker. I am high on

998
00:42:25,360 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 6: Harrison Bailey depending where you looked. Rivals had him as

999
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 6: a five star. Rivals had him as the second quarterback

1000
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 6: in the country. They had him above c. J. Shroud,

1001
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:35,320
Speaker 6: and sure you could say that was probably wrong, but okay,

1002
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 6: twenty four to seven had him third, right behind c. J. Stroud,

1003
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 6: And even I do think he kind of got screwed

1004
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 6: at Tennessee because Jeremy Pruett kept trotting out Jarrett Guarantano

1005
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 6: for god knows what reason. And when he did play

1006
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 6: Harrison Bailey, he completed seventy percent of his passes in

1007
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:53,440
Speaker 6: just six in six games. He looked good. I watched

1008
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 6: some of his games where he got in and I

1009
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 6: thought he threw the ball well. And you know, even

1010
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 6: if Harrison Bailey doesn't pay out, you know, Cameron Friele

1011
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:03,359
Speaker 6: was the Mountain West Freshman of the Year last year.

1012
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 6: Doug Brumfield is still there too, so they have a

1013
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 6: deep room they have. Kyle Williams was the receiver who

1014
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 6: was the twenty twenty Mountain West Freshman of the Year.

1015
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:14,200
Speaker 6: He was the leading receiver last year. They bring in

1016
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 6: Ricky White, who was a transfer from Michigan State. He

1017
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 6: was Harrison Bailey's high school teammate, and he was actually

1018
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 6: pretty good at Michigan. He torched me. I think he

1019
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,399
Speaker 6: got like two hundred yards against Michigan last year. So

1020
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 6: I do kind of like the moves they've made on offense.

1021
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:30,799
Speaker 6: And yeah, they were bad last year, but I don't know.

1022
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:32,719
Speaker 6: I feel like if you watch them, they were like

1023
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 6: they were friskier than we thought they'd be. And that

1024
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 6: sounds like a nice way of saying they were bad,

1025
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 6: but they were and the defense was bad. But if

1026
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 6: they can just approve on offense as bad as this

1027
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:49,440
Speaker 6: Mountain West is, there's going to be toss up games

1028
00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 6: between you know, Nevada Hawaii, Like these are games that

1029
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 6: are winnable now that maybe we didn't think would be.

1030
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 6: I don't know I'm gonna play it, but I'm probably

1031
00:43:57,640 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 6: gonna bet them in like those games.

1032
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 2: I go and tee this up for Colin with a

1033
00:44:03,640 --> 00:44:05,760
Speaker 2: going to the way back machine for the trivia question.

1034
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:08,400
Speaker 1: Do you know the last Bowl game that UNLV one colin.

1035
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 3: Arkansas. I already have to look.

1036
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 6: I was just calibration.

1037
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 5: I mean I I was just disgusting it.

1038
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:17,919
Speaker 3: The other day they lost.

1039
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 5: They won the two thousand Las Vegas Ball against Arkansas,

1040
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:22,719
Speaker 5: and then they opened up in Little Rock in two

1041
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 5: thousand and one against US tonight and Arkansas beat him,

1042
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 5: and I believe their head coach at the time refused

1043
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:30,399
Speaker 5: to get on the bus. Long story for later. Things

1044
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 5: that you learn in media days. I will say that

1045
00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 5: conversation happened with the guy that's the executive order of

1046
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 5: the Las Vegas Ball, and I was promised to get

1047
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,840
Speaker 5: on the field and pull the lever on the Rebel Roller.

1048
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 5: So I'm just gonna say, bucket list, have kids, greatest

1049
00:44:45,040 --> 00:44:45,760
Speaker 5: moment of my life.

1050
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 3: Rebel Roller is going to be right there with it.

1051
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:49,719
Speaker 3: If I can get on that field and pull it.

1052
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:56,440
Speaker 4: There comes the Rebel Roller. Just unveiled today, a giant

1053
00:44:56,520 --> 00:45:00,200
Speaker 4: slot machine used in the wake of any UNLV or

1054
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:04,520
Speaker 4: turnover forced and the first to pull the lever is

1055
00:45:04,560 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 4: the Chuck Wagon Charles Williams.

1056
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:08,759
Speaker 5: Now, listen, the reason UNLV is never gonna be able

1057
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:10,919
Speaker 5: to get over the hump is because of their head coach,

1058
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:14,760
Speaker 5: Marcus Royo. Justin Herbert was never allowed to throw in standardowns.

1059
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:16,719
Speaker 5: He was never allowed to throw on first down, he

1060
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 5: was never allowed to throw on second down. He was

1061
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 5: only allowed to throw on third down. You have a

1062
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,879
Speaker 5: generational talent and you neutered him. And Marcus de Royo

1063
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 5: is a.

1064
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:25,920
Speaker 3: Guy I will never bet on to go over a

1065
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 3: win total and the.

1066
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 5: Only time I was betting on them last year because

1067
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:30,319
Speaker 5: Doug Brumfield was in the game and he could do

1068
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:33,320
Speaker 5: things with his legs at Marcus Royo can't control unlv

1069
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,239
Speaker 5: is pesky, but they're held back by the guy that's

1070
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 5: calling everything.

1071
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 2: I like to think that I stoked the fire a

1072
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 2: little bit there with the Arkansas reference, but you did

1073
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 2: not disappoint. I always like when we can disagree that

1074
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:46,799
Speaker 2: here this last one. Hopefully we don't all pile on

1075
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 2: the poor Rainbow Warriors, but we're gonna finish up the

1076
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 2: pud with why also, somehow one hundred to one should

1077
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:01,640
Speaker 2: be five hundred to one. They wouldn't totals four minus

1078
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:03,760
Speaker 2: one thirty to be over one hundred and seventh projection

1079
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 2: on offense, one hundred and twenty second on defense. All right,

1080
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 2: let's start with the warm and fuzzies. Welcome home, Tommy Chang,

1081
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 2: You're back where you belong. They're playing in their little bandbox.

1082
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 2: I think it's nine thousand seats the clearance TC chain complex.

1083
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 2: That's adorable.

1084
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:19,800
Speaker 1: Maybe they could, you know, fill that up for a

1085
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 1: game or two.

1086
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 2: But when you still look at the personnelity, it's gonna

1087
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:26,440
Speaker 2: take a new quarterback, new system, new skill position players.

1088
00:46:26,480 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 2: Dedrick Parson is the only thing they have going on offense.

1089
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 2: He's a hard runner.

1090
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 1: He's probably gonna put up some decent numbers, you know,

1091
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:35,479
Speaker 1: total offense. And the opener in week zero, they're playing

1092
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 1: band Aid should be a pillow fight. Maybe they can

1093
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:38,280
Speaker 1: get a win there.

1094
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:41,720
Speaker 2: After that, they draw Western Kentucky Ducane on the island,

1095
00:46:41,960 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 2: so like, maybe if just everything goes right and they

1096
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 2: get the turnover luck in their favor, they could steal

1097
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 2: two or three wins early on.

1098
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 1: But after that, you know.

1099
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:54,319
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna revert to some of the bad

1100
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 2: Hawaii teams of years past when they go to the mainland,

1101
00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 2: they just get absolutely slaughtered.

1102
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stay away from this. I've always had a

1103
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:03,399
Speaker 1: soft spot for Hawaii. I'd love to play them when

1104
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 1: they're on the up and up. This team is it's

1105
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:07,320
Speaker 1: gonna take a while. It's gonna take the transfer portal.

1106
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 1: It's gonna take you know, convincing some of the homegrown

1107
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 1: talent on the state of Hawaii to you know, take

1108
00:47:12,800 --> 00:47:15,720
Speaker 1: one team and play for the Rainbow Warriors. It's gonna

1109
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 1: take multiple years to get this in the right place.

1110
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,400
Speaker 1: So it's a stay away from me here. What are

1111
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:22,879
Speaker 1: your thoughts on Hawaii. Let's start with you. I know.

1112
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 6: This is the Arkansas State Rainbow Warriors. They suck and

1113
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 6: I love Timmy Chang and I hate by the way,

1114
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 6: I don't think there's a team in the country. And

1115
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,319
Speaker 6: it seems like, if you like, especially on Twitter, the

1116
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 6: whole country feels this way. Is there a team in

1117
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:42,319
Speaker 6: the country that, like your brain just can't get off,

1118
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 6: Like when you see why you think Timmy Chang and

1119
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 6: Cole Brennan, like everyone bets them, like it's still two

1120
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:50,920
Speaker 6: thousand and six, and it's like, no matter what happens,

1121
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 6: it's just I'll bet the over It's why. It's like

1122
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 6: they've been bad for a few years now and they're

1123
00:47:56,160 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 6: gonna be really bad. Their offense lost everybody, everybody. Eight

1124
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 6: of their top ten tacklers are gone. I love you, Timmy,

1125
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 6: but this season is going to be brutal. I already

1126
00:48:08,080 --> 00:48:10,240
Speaker 6: bet they're under I bet it at four and a half.

1127
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,360
Speaker 6: They're still playing in a practice facility. They're going to

1128
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 6: have one hundred people there. They have obviously they have

1129
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 6: a little bit of home field advantage because of the travel,

1130
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 6: but they have no home field advantage. They're going to

1131
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:20,000
Speaker 6: be bad.

1132
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 5: And I love the other one of the worst home

1133
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:24,759
Speaker 5: field advantages in all of college football. I put out

1134
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:26,319
Speaker 5: a piece every year where I look at the last

1135
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 5: ten years of year against the spread at home, which

1136
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:30,720
Speaker 5: is how odds makers should give you home field advantage,

1137
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 5: and Hawaii is absolutely the worst. They have not been

1138
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:34,799
Speaker 5: covering the spread at home over the last ten years.

1139
00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:36,320
Speaker 5: And we'll see what they do in their new stadium.

1140
00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:38,360
Speaker 5: But it's just not an advantage you would think so

1141
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:41,239
Speaker 5: with teams flying out there, we need a betting deliverable here.

1142
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:42,359
Speaker 5: So I'm not going to give you a win till

1143
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:44,240
Speaker 5: they're not going to give you a conference feature on Hawaii.

1144
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 5: I will say that on the Action Network. I'll have

1145
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 5: a piece coming out that looks at the week zero

1146
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 5: Week one. Biggest mismatches on the board, Hawaii and Vanderbilt

1147
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:55,320
Speaker 5: are just that. Hawaii's offense only returns twenty percent of

1148
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 5: their passing yards from last year and only forty four

1149
00:48:57,520 --> 00:49:00,799
Speaker 5: percent of their offensive line snaps. Vanderbilt coming in with

1150
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:03,560
Speaker 5: seventy two percent of the pressures that they generated last year,

1151
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 5: sixty nine percent of their passes defense from last year.

1152
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 5: Their defense is absolutely going to lock down Hawaii. There's

1153
00:49:10,000 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 5: just too much experience on the Vanderbilt side of the ball.

1154
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 5: There is a six and a half out there. A

1155
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 5: lot of people move to seven. It's a number I

1156
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 5: power rate a ten and I expect to float over

1157
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:20,359
Speaker 5: seven and get up that high maybe the day of kick,

1158
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 5: but that's.

1159
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:22,480
Speaker 3: The number that I expect to float it up to.

1160
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 3: So get those six and a halves that on Vanderbilt

1161
00:49:24,560 --> 00:49:26,120
Speaker 3: as a play against the White.

1162
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,440
Speaker 6: It is six and a half at vanduel and it

1163
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 6: is locked down.

1164
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:32,880
Speaker 1: All right, We're going to go quick here, what is

1165
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 1: your favorite win total play on the board, and then

1166
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 1: not necessarily who you think is going to win the conference,

1167
00:49:38,160 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 1: but your.

1168
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:42,279
Speaker 2: Favorite future ticket that you're potentially holding to win the

1169
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 2: Mountain the West.

1170
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:46,080
Speaker 6: My favorite future is president of State plus three hundred.

1171
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:48,360
Speaker 6: Very confident they're going to win it, So I'm going

1172
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 6: to take it Wyoming under five. This team is going

1173
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:53,879
Speaker 6: to be a nightmare. The vibes are bad, the eight

1174
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 6: teams bad. They got no players left. None of the

1175
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,760
Speaker 6: fans are listening because they all transferred to better teams.

1176
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:02,880
Speaker 6: So Wyoming under five is my best bet for me.

1177
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:04,800
Speaker 3: There's no actually there's no mountainless futures.

1178
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:07,359
Speaker 5: I mean I did put a little bit San Jose State,

1179
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:09,040
Speaker 5: but I will just stick with best bet being over

1180
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:10,800
Speaker 5: six and a half and plus money. I'd probably do

1181
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:13,440
Speaker 5: it to minus one thirty, you know. And it's just

1182
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 5: a really really water down schedule with six games. Are

1183
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 5: absolutely gonna have no problems winning. And then Nevada under five.

1184
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 5: I mean, this is exactly everything you look for and

1185
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 5: under coaching change, scheme change, personnel change, transfer portal has

1186
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:29,920
Speaker 5: depleted them and non scholarship players in the two D,

1187
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:32,319
Speaker 5: you couldn't ask for anything more under five.

1188
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 3: Big on the Nevada Wolffeck.

1189
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:37,080
Speaker 2: I'll turn to the Mountain Division for both here. I'm

1190
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:39,280
Speaker 2: all in on this Air Force team. So much continuity,

1191
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:41,840
Speaker 2: year over year. I love what they're able to do.

1192
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 2: They'll be able to protect their defense with the way

1193
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:46,680
Speaker 2: that they control the clock, and their defense was very

1194
00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:48,319
Speaker 2: good against the run last year. I think they're going

1195
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 2: to be in every single game this year, have an

1196
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:53,640
Speaker 2: opportunity to get to double digits to potentially win the conference.

1197
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:56,200
Speaker 2: It's going to be an interesting conflict of styles in

1198
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:57,680
Speaker 2: the title game, at least the one I'm.

1199
00:50:57,600 --> 00:50:59,320
Speaker 1: Projecting between frist of State and Air Force.

1200
00:50:59,560 --> 00:51:01,759
Speaker 2: And then and we get to talk up the G

1201
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 2: five heroes, the players we love, the teams we love.

1202
00:51:04,520 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 1: Sometimes it feels good to just be a hater.

1203
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:08,640
Speaker 2: And New Mexico is not good and two and a

1204
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:10,879
Speaker 2: half is too many, So I'm gonna go.

1205
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:12,760
Speaker 1: Under there and I'm gonna get to root.

1206
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 2: Like hell for the main Black Bears in the opener,

1207
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 2: and that's gonna be some exciting football for me.

1208
00:51:17,080 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 1: That's gonna be one of the games where my wife's

1209
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:19,920
Speaker 1: gonna ask, Hey, what are you watching? And then I

1210
00:51:19,920 --> 00:51:22,359
Speaker 1: have to lie just because it's too embarrassing to say

1211
00:51:22,400 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 1: out loud. So that's how we're gonna end the podcast

1212
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:27,120
Speaker 1: this week. This has been the Big Bets on Campus pod.

1213
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 2: We are gonna be back with more content coming out

1214
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:32,799
Speaker 2: over the next week August eighth. By then we will

1215
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 2: have wrapped all of our G five previews. We're gonna

1216
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:38,239
Speaker 2: add more from Colin, from Stuckey, from Brett McMurphy. So

1217
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 2: much content coming before the first ball is kicked off

1218
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:44,800
Speaker 2: in week zero, So please be checking your feeds refreshing

1219
00:51:45,400 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 2: like Share, Tell a friend, tell them enemy.

1220
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 1: You know how to do it. We want to get

1221
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 1: the good word spread.

1222
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:51,239
Speaker 2: Thank you guys so much for joining us, and thanks

1223
00:51:51,239 --> 00:52:00,280
Speaker 2: for listening.