1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:09,879 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. On Monday morning, Canada's 2 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stood outside his residence in Ottawa 3 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: and made the announcement that after nine years leading the country, 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: he'll be stepping down. I intend to resign as party 5 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:24,959 Speaker 1: leader as prime minister. The decision came after years of 6 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 1: growing economic strains in Canada and months of political turmoil 7 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 1: for Trudeau and the Liberal party he leads. 8 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 2: For the past three weeks, everyone's felt that Trudeau was 9 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 2: not going to survive this, and on Monday he made 10 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 2: it official, calling our leadership race to replace him. 11 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 1: Brian Platt covers Canada for Bloomberg and has been chronicling 12 00:00:43,120 --> 00:00:46,839 Speaker 1: every twist and turn of Trudeau's fall. He's based in 13 00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: Ottawa and he was there at Rideau Cottage for the announcement, 14 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: braving the negative fourteen degrees celsius chill that's about seven 15 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: degrees fahrenheit. 16 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 2: There was one little propane heater that we were all 17 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 2: rotating around, and Trudeau came out and spoke to us 18 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 2: for about forty five minutes. It was kind of understated 19 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 2: the way that you would normally see Trudeau speak. There 20 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 2: was moments where you could catch a bit of emotion 21 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 2: to his voice, like he had the phrase he used 22 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 2: a couple of times, always been a fighter. Every bone 23 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 2: in my body has always told me to fight because 24 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:21,039 Speaker 2: I care deeply about Canadians. 25 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 1: I care deeply about this country. 26 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 2: And his voice caught a little bit. His eyes looked 27 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 2: a little bit puffy, but maybe that was just because 28 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 2: of the cold. But you know, he did not want 29 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:34,960 Speaker 2: to do this. I think that's the biggest thing that 30 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 2: people should realize is Trudeau was fully preparing to fight 31 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 2: the next election, and ultimately it just became untenable for 32 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 2: him to hang on as leader, and so against all 33 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 2: of his instincts and all of his intentions, he was 34 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 2: forced into this position. And I think you could really 35 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 2: see that in his speech yesterday. 36 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 1: Today on the show, how housing costs, inflation and the 37 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 1: looming threat of US tariffs helped force Trudeau into this position, 38 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 1: and what Canada's right word shift and current leadership vacuum 39 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: means for the country's economy and its position on the 40 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: global stage. This is the big take from Bloomberg News. 41 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: I'm Sarah Holder. Over the past few months, as Trudeau's 42 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: polling numbers dropped, the Conservative opposition gained steam and Trudeau's 43 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: allies and the Liberal Party started turning against him. But 44 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,440 Speaker 1: Brian says for a while he still didn't think Trudeau 45 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: would actually resign. 46 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:41,360 Speaker 2: I mean I talked to him through news conferences, I 47 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 2: talked to a lot of his inner circle. I was 48 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 2: very convinced all the way through that Trudeau was not 49 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:49,360 Speaker 2: going to step down. Despite his bad polling numbers. He 50 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,519 Speaker 2: believed he could turn it around and win the next election, 51 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 2: which is going to happen sometime in twenty twenty five. 52 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 2: And right up until December sixteenth, I would have told 53 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 2: you that same answer, Trudeau not stepping down. 54 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: But then on December sixteenth, his Finance Minister, Christian Freeland, 55 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 1: publicly quit and the tides turned. Freeland was also Deputy 56 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 1: Prime Minister, pretty much the second most important person in 57 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 1: the government, and she had been a long time Trudeau ally, 58 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 1: so this split it was a grab the popcorn moment 59 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 1: in Canadian politics. 60 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 2: She published a letter criticizing Trudeau. Really it didn't directly 61 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 2: call him out, but it Barry clearly criticized him and 62 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 2: said he was not preparing seriously enough for the threat 63 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 2: of tariffs under Donald Trump, that he was too focused 64 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 2: on sort of populist measures, she called them political gimmicks, 65 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 2: and not preparing for what might be a major trade war. 66 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 2: In the moment that Christian Freeland quit, and quit in 67 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 2: such a public way, it really changed everything. It kind 68 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 2: of cut the legs out from under Trudeau and his party, 69 00:03:55,960 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 2: I would say decisively turned against him after that happened, and. 70 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: Says What happened to cause such a split between Freeland 71 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,920 Speaker 1: and Trudeau isn't completely clear, but we do know that 72 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 1: he was planning to replace her as Finance Minister in 73 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: an attempt to try to revitalize his government with fresh faces, 74 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: a new narrative. His administration thought that might help improve 75 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: their polling numbers. Trudeau offered Freeland a new job overseeing 76 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 1: US Canadian relations. 77 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 2: I don't want to put words in her mouth, but 78 00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 2: I think if you look at the tone of her letter, 79 00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 2: she saw this as a humiliating demotion, as she was 80 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 2: no longer going to be running a government department. But 81 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:35,520 Speaker 2: I have to say the manner in which she did 82 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:40,080 Speaker 2: this was kind of calculated to inflict maximum damage on 83 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 2: the Prime minister. And I know there are people around 84 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 2: Trudeau now who were very taken by surprise with how 85 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:52,359 Speaker 2: Christia Freeland did this and are wondering if this was 86 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 2: a play by her essentially to take out the prime 87 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 2: minister and run for leadership herself. I want to be clear, 88 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 2: I'm not reporting that that's why she did this, but 89 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 2: there are people around Trudeau who are wondering that absolutely. 90 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 1: Well, let's step back for a moment. Trudeau served for 91 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: nine years. When he first took office, he was a 92 00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,280 Speaker 1: pretty popular leader. He came to the role as the 93 00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: son of a beloved former prime minister. His cabinet featured 94 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: an equal number of men and women, which is a 95 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: first for Canada. 96 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:23,720 Speaker 2: I understand one of the priorities for you was to 97 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 2: have a cabinet that was gender balanced. 98 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: Why was that so important to you, because it's twenty fifteen. 99 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: In his first few years in office, he declared Canada 100 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:39,040 Speaker 1: open for anyone fleeing persecution, terror and war, and initiated 101 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: reconciliation with Canada's Indigenous people. Those are just a few 102 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 1: of the things that he did. Can you just chart 103 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 1: his rise and fall for us? 104 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 2: When Trudeau became Liberal leader, the Liberals had suffered a 105 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:56,119 Speaker 2: devastating election fet in twenty eleven, they were in third place. 106 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 2: They weren't even the official opposition party, you know, and 107 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 2: this is a party that has governed Canada for much 108 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 2: of the past one hundred years. So they were in 109 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:06,599 Speaker 2: a really bad place in many ways. They were in 110 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 2: the worst place that they'd been in modern Canadian history. 111 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 2: And Trudeau came in and absolutely reinvigorated and energized the 112 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 2: party and really created a big youth movement. I mean, 113 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 2: when he won the election in twenty fifteen, younger voters 114 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 2: really propelled him into office. There was a huge turnout 115 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 2: in that election, and he was promising things that appealed 116 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 2: to younger voters. He promised to legalize recreational marijuana use. 117 00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 2: He promised a big tax cut that raised taxes on 118 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:39,679 Speaker 2: the highest income earners and cut them for everybody else. 119 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 2: He also brought the Liberal Party, I would say, much 120 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 2: further to the left, especially economically, than it had been 121 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 2: a very centrist party. You know, it's maybe a little 122 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 2: much to say he reinvented the Liberal Party, but he 123 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 2: really did change it when he came in, and he 124 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 2: won a big election victory in twenty fifteen and stayed 125 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 2: on as Prime minister for nine almost ten years. But 126 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 2: what happened after the pandemic, especially with inflation and the 127 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:08,320 Speaker 2: rise in housing prices in particular, really cut into him 128 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 2: and that was when things really changed. 129 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 1: Well, yeah, what were those issues that really brought Trudeau 130 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 1: and the Liberal Party He leads to this inflection point. 131 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 2: I remember the timeline when the polling started to change 132 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 2: dramatically for Trudeau because it was the summer of twenty 133 00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,920 Speaker 2: twenty three when the narrative really took over that nobody 134 00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 2: could afford a house in Canada anymore. Renz had exploded 135 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 2: and housing prices had exploded, and interest rates were high 136 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 2: because of well various global factors in particular around supply 137 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 2: chains and so on. 138 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: This is sounding familiar, Yes. 139 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 2: Yes, this was not just in particular the Canadian problem, right, 140 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 2: Although there's one thing that I think did exacerbate the 141 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 2: problem in Canada, which is after the pandemic, Trudeau's government 142 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 2: kind of lost control of the immigration system, especially on 143 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 2: temporary foreign workers in the international students. So there's a 144 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 2: few things I think that fed into it. But there 145 00:08:05,720 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 2: was a huge surge Canada brought in I believe within 146 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 2: twelve months. At one point the number was one point 147 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 2: two million people in a country of about forty million people. 148 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 2: The population growth rate exploded and it blew up the 149 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 2: housing market. On top of the inflation problem around food 150 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 2: prices and everything else. That the rest of the world 151 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 2: was experiencing inflation in Canada, just like it did in 152 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:33,320 Speaker 2: every other developed country. I mean, it's killer for an 153 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 2: incumbent government. And one thing I thought was interesting was 154 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:39,520 Speaker 2: that well into the summer of twenty twenty four, when 155 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 2: inflation was actually pretty much under control in Canada, but 156 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 2: if you looked at polling, conflation was either the number 157 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,080 Speaker 2: one or the number two issue for many many months 158 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 2: after it had been brought back under control. And I 159 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,599 Speaker 2: do think that there is you know, along with the 160 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 2: specific Canadian elements I mentioned, the global anti incumbent movement 161 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 2: is specially around the inflation surge that came after the 162 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 2: pandemic took a bite out of Trudeau absolutely, and so 163 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:09,440 Speaker 2: he was always going to be up against it to 164 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 2: try to recover from that. 165 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,320 Speaker 1: Trudeau will stay in office until his Liberal Party chooses 166 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: a new leader. What will the process look like. Who 167 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: are the front runners to replace him and what vision 168 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: for Canada's economic and political future are they promising that's 169 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:35,839 Speaker 1: after the break. Trudeau's resignation comes at the start of 170 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 1: an election year for Canada. The country will hold its 171 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 1: national election by October at the latest, which would have 172 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:45,199 Speaker 1: already been a tight deadline for a new political leader 173 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:49,719 Speaker 1: to gain support. But as Bloomberg's Brian Platt explained, when 174 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 1: Trudeau resigned on Monday, he also asked to suspend the 175 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 1: parliament to allow his Liberal Party some breathing room to 176 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:59,680 Speaker 1: choose a new leader. When parliament returns, there's a strong 177 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 1: chance it'll be thrust into an election right away. 178 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:07,240 Speaker 2: There's a lot of parliamentary drama right now because the 179 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,199 Speaker 2: three big opposition parties here have all now promised to 180 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 2: vote against the government at the next opportunity. So you 181 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 2: have this election deadline hanging over everything right now, and 182 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 2: parliament is suspended, but it will come back on March 183 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 2: twenty fourth, and when it comes back, you will pretty 184 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 2: quickly have a confidence vote, and if the opposition parties 185 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 2: follow through on what they promised, they will defeat the 186 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 2: government and that will trigger an election. So that's a 187 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,319 Speaker 2: pretty hard deadline to get a new leader in the place. 188 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 2: You basically have two months, give or take a week 189 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 2: or two. 190 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 1: Well, so, who are the front runners that are kind 191 00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: of emerging right now as Canada searches for new leadership 192 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: for its parties. 193 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 2: Well, Freeland is probably the biggest name that everyone's talking 194 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 2: about right now, Mark Carney. He's the former Central Bank 195 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 2: governor of Canada and of England, and it holds many 196 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,839 Speaker 2: other positions right now, including the chair of Bloomberg ink 197 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,200 Speaker 2: we should disclose, but also the chair of Brookfield Asset Management, 198 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 2: a very prominent and well established global figure. We wrote 199 00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 2: a story on Monday night, shortly after Trudeau gave a 200 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,719 Speaker 2: speech that Mark Carney is considering running for the leadership. 201 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:24,200 Speaker 2: But you've got a bunch of other cabinet ministers around 202 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 2: Trudeau who may run, So there actually is a pretty 203 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 2: big potential pool here. 204 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 1: And all this comes at a time when President elect 205 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:35,160 Speaker 1: Donald Trump has threatened to impose steep tariffs of twenty 206 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 1: five percent on Canadian experts to the US once he 207 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 1: takes office. With Trudeau on his way out and his 208 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:45,199 Speaker 1: cabinet leader is potentially preparing to run for leadership themselves, 209 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 1: Brian says the country's negotiating power with the US could 210 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: be weakened. 211 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 2: It's a very not ideal situation for a Canadian government 212 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 2: dealing with a potentially economically devastating threat south of the border. 213 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 2: Trump is all already been mocking Canada right and mocking Trudeau, 214 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:06,439 Speaker 2: calling Canada the fifty first state, calling Trudeau the governor 215 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 2: of Canada, and now Trudeau will just be the absolute 216 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 2: definition of a lane duck or a custodian leader at 217 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:19,000 Speaker 2: this point, because he has said he has resigned, but 218 00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 2: he's just staying in office until his successor is chosen. 219 00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 2: So he's already on his way out. And I think 220 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 2: the only thing potentially that might help Trudeau in that 221 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,720 Speaker 2: situation is that he maybe has a bit more freedom 222 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 2: to do some politically unpopular things because he personally will 223 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 2: not be facing voters in an election. 224 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: But as Brian mentioned, the outlook for Trudeau's Liberal Party 225 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: in the upcoming election is gloomy. It's been trailing the 226 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 1: Conservative Party led by Pierre Pauliev. 227 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 2: You know, this sort of catch all term that people 228 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 2: use for him is he's populist. He does have a 229 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 2: very aggressive way of speaking, very blunt. He's also a 230 00:12:57,880 --> 00:13:01,920 Speaker 2: pretty polarizing figure and there's a lot of Canadians on 231 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 2: the other side who will be quite repelled by him, 232 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 2: but he is in many ways, at least when it 233 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 2: comes to policy, in his vision of government, just the 234 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:15,079 Speaker 2: total opposite of Justin Trudeau. If you go essentially from 235 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 2: a Trudeau government to a Pierre Pouliev government, it will 236 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 2: be a huge turn for Canada. The kinds of things 237 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 2: Polyev is talking about doing are build more fossil fuel projects, 238 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 2: unleash Canada's oil and gas sector, and reduce the size 239 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:32,440 Speaker 2: of government and cut taxes. If Polyev comes in with 240 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 2: a large majority government so it controls most of the 241 00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 2: seats in parliament, you know, he potentially will come in 242 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 2: and make some pretty big changes that will just be, 243 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 2: you know, quite a sharp turn from what we've seen 244 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 2: in the Trudeau era. And it's going to be very 245 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 2: interesting to see if you take Justin Trudeau out of 246 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,800 Speaker 2: the picture, can a new Liberal leader eat into the 247 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 2: commanding lead that Poliev has because at the moment it 248 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 2: sure looks like he's heading for a huge victory and 249 00:13:57,400 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 2: the Liberal Party you know, might be back in the 250 00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 2: world and is where it was before Justin Trudeau took 251 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 2: over more than ten years ago. 252 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: Well, as you said, a lot of this sounds a 253 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 1: little bit familiar when you're looking at the global stage. 254 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: Canada is just the latest country that's poised for this 255 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 1: consequential change in leadership. It's seeing a right word shift. 256 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: France AusAID its prime minister last month. Germany is headed 257 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 1: for a snap election next month. Trump is about to 258 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 1: take office in the US. How does this news from 259 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: Canada fit into that global picture in your eyes? How 260 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: should listeners be thinking about this moment of global political upheaval. 261 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 2: It does fit into the narrative and the established track 262 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 2: record that it's just a very bad time to be 263 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 2: an incumbent government right now. And Trudeau spent last year 264 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 2: watching a lot of his G seven counterparts get taken 265 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,960 Speaker 2: out in elections, and they wanted to delay an election 266 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:49,240 Speaker 2: as long as they could into twenty twenty five to 267 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 2: try to avoid the faith that you had seen in 268 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 2: a lot of these other G seven countries. And that 269 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 2: was the hope, you know, survive this period of global 270 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 2: instability and global back clash, especially related to inflation. Survive this, 271 00:15:04,040 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 2: get through it, and you know, twenty twenty five, interest 272 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 2: rates are lower, inflation is receding into people's memory. This 273 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,640 Speaker 2: is a chance to sort of turn things around. That's 274 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 2: what Trudeau wanted to do, avoid the fate that he 275 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 2: had seen around the rest of the world, and ultimately 276 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 2: he has not been able to do it. Domestic political 277 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 2: events eventually forced his hand. 278 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 1: This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. 279 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Alex tie. It was edited 280 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 1: by Tracy Samuelson and Laura Dylan Kane. It was mixed 281 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: and sound designed by Alex Sugiura. It was fact checked 282 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: by Adriana Tapia. Our senior producer is Naomi Shaven. Our 283 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: senior editor is Elizabeth Ponso. Our executive producer is Nicole 284 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:54,640 Speaker 1: Beamster born Sage Bauman is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. If 285 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,400 Speaker 1: you liked this episode, make sure to subscribe and review 286 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 1: The Big Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps 287 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 1: people find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.