1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:02,800 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? 2 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 2: Do us prout read a lot? They're up for running 3 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 2: a game so smoothe so sweet, splendid. 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:19,200 Speaker 3: Six sing just glorious executions. Guys, all I'm looking for 5 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 3: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time. 6 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 4: How shut with that shop of mind? 7 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 5: Good buddy, And. 8 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 3: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. 9 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the. 10 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet. 11 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: Nobody picture them. 12 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 4: Shut up. 13 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 6: I'm trying. 14 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 3: The wall. 15 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:43,520 Speaker 5: It's left too. 16 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 1: The wide eyed drill pibus, how old earth. 17 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 5: Pick that happens? Hello, everybody, Welcome back to Wonder Goal, 18 00:00:52,560 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 5: the soccer betting podcast. 19 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 4: From the Action Network. 20 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 5: My name is Michael Liba, joining me as always my 21 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 5: co hosts friends colleagues Anthony Debondo and BJ Cunningham, and 22 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 5: together the three of. 23 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 2: Us are stoked. 24 00:01:06,280 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 5: We're absolutely stoked to start our World Cup adventure. But 25 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 5: before I bring them in, before we break down the 26 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 5: first three days of matches, a reminder that Wonder Goal 27 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 5: is sponsored by Bet three six five, the world's favorite 28 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 5: sportsbook brand. Sign Up now with promo code Action to 29 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 5: get BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer in 30 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 5: New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on any game, 31 00:01:27,160 --> 00:01:30,960 Speaker 5: get two hundred free. All right, let's get going, boys, 32 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 5: BJ I'm going to start with you your favorite bet for 33 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 5: the first three match days of the World Cup, and 34 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 5: it's a doozy. 35 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: I love our boys, Michael. The Americans dront obatt at 36 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: minus one twenty against Wales. If you listen to our 37 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,320 Speaker 1: preview podcasts, you know my feelings about Wales about how 38 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: they're a complete luck box. They've essentially when they have 39 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 1: to play good competition they have not fared very well. 40 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:55,320 Speaker 1: They were in a Worlkup qualifying group with Belgium and 41 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: the Czech Republic, so two matches each against those two sides, 42 00:01:58,240 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: and then in the Euros they. 43 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 2: Had one good match against Turkey. 44 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: Other than that, they played Italy, they played Switzerland, and 45 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: they played Denmark. So since we have seven matches against 46 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 1: good competition, they have a minus six point seven expected 47 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: goal differential in those seven matches, so they have not 48 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: been competitive whatsoever. This is a match where the United 49 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:16,639 Speaker 1: States is going to control a majority of the possession. 50 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: Wales usually sits in a very very deep low block, 51 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 1: sometimes a four to four to two, sometimes a. 52 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 2: Five to three to two. 53 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 1: And the reality is that Wales is a heavy, direct, 54 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,360 Speaker 1: counter attacking side. And what's the biggest strength of this 55 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 1: United States team. It's in the midfield with Tyler Adams, 56 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 1: Weston McKinney, and Unice Mussa, who are all outstanding defenders 57 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: in transition can press very well. And the biggest weakness 58 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 1: for the United States team is that when they're not 59 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: organized in defense and they're basically in scramm mode, when 60 00:02:42,520 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 1: teams force high turnovers against them, that's when they can 61 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 1: get picked apart. Wales is not going to press them high. 62 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 1: They're going to sit deep, so they're not gonna be 63 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: able to take advantage of that one weakness for the Americans. 64 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 1: And the reality is is the Americans are going to 65 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 1: have to break down a low block. But the line 66 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 1: is telling you that these two teams are essentially even 67 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,239 Speaker 1: if you look through the Whales roster, Gareth Bales on 68 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: the wrong side of thirty, Joe Allen's probably not even 69 00:03:03,360 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 1: gonna play in this first match, Aaron Ramsey's on the 70 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 1: wrong side of thirty. Keith for Moore can't do anything 71 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: but head the ball into the net. So it's a 72 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 1: great spot here for the Americans in the first match. 73 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 1: It's essentially a winner, go home game, right, because these 74 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: two teams essentially are even on the. 75 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 2: Odds of to qualify. 76 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:19,399 Speaker 1: So I have the Americans projected at plus one oh four. 77 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:21,079 Speaker 1: I mean, this is the first big test for them 78 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 1: facing somebody outside of concer Cap since we didn't qualify 79 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: for the twenty. 80 00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 2: Eighteen World Cup. So it will be a big test. 81 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: But a lot of our players are playing across Europe, 82 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: They've seen these guys before. We have more talent than 83 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: this team. We should be able to run them over 84 00:03:31,840 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 1: in the midfield. So I love the Americans. John Obett 85 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: a minus one twenty. 86 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 4: That is a two. 87 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 5: Pm kickoff on Monday. I'm going to go to the 88 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 5: eleven am kickoff on that day. It's Senegal and the Netherlands. 89 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:46,119 Speaker 5: I like the Lions of Taranga. I like Senegal five 90 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 5: to one on the money line. It's a big number, 91 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,280 Speaker 5: but I think it underrates this Senegal team. Yes, they're 92 00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 5: without Saudi Omane. Yes, the Netherlands are the odds on 93 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 5: favorite to win Group A, but. 94 00:03:57,400 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 4: I don't think that the gap is as. 95 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 5: Wide between these two teams as these odds are implying 96 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 5: Senegal is still really deep down the middle. Adrisa Ganagay 97 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 5: is one of the best defensive midfielders. He's great at 98 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 5: snuffing out counter attacks. They have a great center back 99 00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:15,040 Speaker 5: in Kaladu Koulabali. Their goalkeeper Edward Mendi. He might not 100 00:04:15,080 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 5: be in the best form right now, but last year 101 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 5: he's one of the best goalkeepers in the world, and 102 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 5: they still can score even without Sadiomane with ismale Asar 103 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 5: with the this is still a very dangerous team. I 104 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 5: think that the market is moving too much based off 105 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 5: the Saudiomane news. All three of us are pretty bullish 106 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 5: on Netherlands over the long term of the tournament. 107 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 4: But this is betting. 108 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 5: It comes down to the price, and I think the 109 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 5: price is good enough on Senegal to maybe pull an 110 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:43,320 Speaker 5: upset on Monday against Clockwork Orange Anthony your favorite bet 111 00:04:43,320 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 5: for these first three match days. 112 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 6: Yeah, it's going to be also on Monday eight am, 113 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 6: Eastern Iran versus England. England is a team that we've debated. 114 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 6: I know a Bejay's wearing an England jersey right now. 115 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 6: He's all in on the Three Lions to. 116 00:04:58,000 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 3: Bring football home. 117 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:00,839 Speaker 6: But I'm a little bit more skeptical of them, at 118 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 6: least early in the tournament where I think they may 119 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,920 Speaker 6: have some issues. One, they're dealing with a ton of injuries. 120 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 6: We don't know if Kyle Walker will be back for 121 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 6: this game. We know Reech James is out. They have 122 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,599 Speaker 6: some fullback concerns that I think the direct style of 123 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 6: Iran can kind of take advantage of. With Dami and 124 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 6: Sorry Fard Long balls up to them. Usually, Walker is 125 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 6: kind of the sweeper for England. 126 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:22,359 Speaker 3: He cleans up a. 127 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 6: Lot of messes for Southgate. Kieran Trippier just not that 128 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 6: level of defender. I'm guessing we're going to see him 129 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:28,359 Speaker 6: in this game. And you have to go back to 130 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 6: Iran's last trip to the World Cup. They were in 131 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 6: a group with Spain, Portugal and Morocco. It was an 132 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 6: underrated group. Iran only won one game, they beat Morocco 133 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,599 Speaker 6: one nil, but they were very competitive with Spain and 134 00:05:38,640 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 6: with Portugal, and I think they're just a very difficult 135 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 6: team to play against. Ay tied one to one with 136 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 6: Portugal and lost one nail to Spain. They play a 137 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 6: very compact defensive style. They brought back their manager from 138 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 6: that World Cup sack their manager that got them to 139 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 6: the World Cup this year, fired him, brought in the 140 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 6: old manager from twenty fourteen to twenty eighteen, their last 141 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 6: two World Cup trips. They're an underrated team because of 142 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 6: how compact they are defensively, and the one thing we 143 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 6: know about England is they've had issues breaking down teams 144 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 6: who are very defensive and who are willing to seed 145 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 6: possession to them. England much more dangerous in transition. So 146 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,280 Speaker 6: I like Iron plus one and a half at minus 147 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 6: one twenty. I think this game is could be very competitive, 148 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 6: could be one nil for sure, but could also see 149 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 6: Iron surprising England here early in this tournament. 150 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 5: All right, let's talk about some marquee matchups. Now, we'll 151 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 5: start with the opener, the table setter. FIFA moved the 152 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:30,479 Speaker 5: entire tournament up a day just to make sure that 153 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:34,799 Speaker 5: Katar got a standalone matchup on Sunday, November the twenty. 154 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:37,559 Speaker 5: If they'll be taken on Ecuador Ecuadors plus one twenty 155 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 5: five at the moment, Katar plus two forty. The draw 156 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 5: here is plus two twenty. A lot to unpack here, 157 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 5: and not a lot of it takes place on the field. 158 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:51,240 Speaker 5: BJ give us your thoughts here on Ecuador and the hosts. 159 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,279 Speaker 1: Right, So, if everything was being equal, we were playing 160 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: this match at a neutral field, you know, and neither team 161 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 1: really had any rest advantage, and all things be equal, 162 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: I would say, yeah, deserving favorite. They probably should be 163 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 1: about minus one ten minus one fifteen. But there is 164 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:07,719 Speaker 1: a ton of stuff and gives a ton of advantages 165 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 1: here for Quitar. So first off, all of their players 166 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: play in the Katari Stars League, which went on pause 167 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: on September fourteenth. But not only that, Michael, all of 168 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: their players have not played for their club teams this season. 169 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 1: They've been in national team training for the last six months, 170 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,320 Speaker 1: gearing up for this World Cup on home soil, well, 171 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: Ecuador has seven days to repair. That's an incredible advantage 172 00:07:27,720 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: for guitar and not only for rest, but preparation as well, 173 00:07:30,840 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: so they will be very well drilled and ready for 174 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 1: this match. They play a very deep low block when 175 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 1: they have to play good competition, usually a five to 176 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: three to two. We saw that when they played the 177 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 1: United States and the Gold Cup to summers ago. 178 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 2: They gave us a heck of a match. 179 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 1: Expected goals was about even in that one Guitar even 180 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:47,800 Speaker 1: missed a penalty that could have had them go up 181 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: one nothing. The reality is is that this guitar team 182 00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: has been playing together for a really, really long time. 183 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: You know, they have over one thousand international caps together. 184 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: They know what they want to do. Defensively, They're going 185 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: to be very compact. Likes to do Michael is. They 186 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: like to create a lot of overloads in the middle 187 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:04,600 Speaker 1: of the pitch. They love to open up the wings 188 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:08,440 Speaker 1: where they have great fullbacks like a stupid on and 189 00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 1: the other right back to get moving forward, to create 190 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: a lot of chances swinging crosses into the box. 191 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 2: Well, Kasar is gonna play a five man back lines. 192 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 1: So they'd be able to take away a lot of 193 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: those channels down the flanks. They're gonna be very compact 194 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: in the middle. It's gonna be very, very difficult for 195 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 1: Ecuador to break down this low block. And I have 196 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,600 Speaker 1: concerns with Ecuador strikers like Enter Valencia, who's on the 197 00:08:25,600 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: wrong side of thirty and being able to finish. 198 00:08:27,680 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 2: So I like Kaitar. 199 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a bet at the Anthony Debundo playbook. 200 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take guitar plus point twenty five, essentially splitting 201 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 1: the bet with Qatar John o'bett and guitar plus half 202 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 1: a goal at minus one ten. So that's where I'm 203 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 1: going in this first match. I think the host nation 204 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,200 Speaker 1: has too many advantages to be an underdog here. 205 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 5: Anthony, you were close to joining BJ but some line movement, 206 00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 5: we've seen money come in at Qatar. I don't think 207 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 5: it's gonna stop as people kind of buy into this 208 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:57,160 Speaker 5: narrative of you know, host nation, first game, home field advantage, FIFA, 209 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 5: all of that good stuff. But you think you can 210 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 5: make a case here for the Maroons. 211 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, this line opened guitar wars plus a half. 212 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 6: Now they've come down all the way to plus point 213 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:07,719 Speaker 6: two five And it doesn't sound like a lot, but 214 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 6: when you're betting soccer, it is quite a lot because 215 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 6: I mean, you know, there's not a lot of goals, 216 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 6: and I don't anticipate a lot of goals in this match. 217 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 6: I think from a macro point of view, it is 218 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 6: very interesting early in this tournament because of the quick turnaround. 219 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 6: How sharp are these teams going to be? How much 220 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 6: time do they really have to come together? We know 221 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 6: that's a problem for every team in this tournament, but 222 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 6: one like BJ mentioned, and so the spot for me 223 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 6: is not great for Equador, I think it's a bad one. 224 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:31,080 Speaker 3: I think this one could very well end in a draw. 225 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 6: But I am not taking the point twenty five because 226 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 6: I think the number is now come down into range 227 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 6: where it's pretty much right. 228 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:40,199 Speaker 5: I actually am going to go against what you just 229 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 5: said there. I like the over two and a half. 230 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 4: It's plus one fifty. 231 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:45,880 Speaker 5: Both of these teams it's a must win, right. They'll 232 00:09:45,880 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 5: fancy this as their most winnable match of their group stage. 233 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 5: They'll both think we need to put three points in 234 00:09:50,520 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 5: our pockets, have a chance to get out of here, 235 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 5: maybe a chance to surprise and win the group. So 236 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 5: I'm expecting both teams to be on the front foot 237 00:09:57,200 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 5: or at least do look for opportunities to hack. And 238 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 5: the other thing here is I don't trust either of 239 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 5: them not to make mistakes, like this is the first 240 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 5: game of a World Cup Ecuador. Like BJ said, they're 241 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:10,840 Speaker 5: all coming from all over the world to gel together. Qatar, 242 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,400 Speaker 5: They're just not talented, right. You can't trust a team 243 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 5: with this, you know, talent level to not make mistakes. 244 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 5: So I think we could see a cheap goal or two, 245 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 5: maybe a dumb foul in the box that leads to 246 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 5: a penalty, and one goal opens this thing up because 247 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 5: the other team will need to get something out of it. 248 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 5: So I think the over two and a half plus 249 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 5: one fifty is a good bet. I wouldn't hate live 250 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,960 Speaker 5: betting the over if the game starts slow, if it's like, 251 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 5: you know, nil nil in those first twenty five thirty minutes, 252 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 5: because I just think one goal really really opens this 253 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 5: thing up for both teams and should play into the 254 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 5: hands of both teams as well. Like the Ecuador is 255 00:10:42,840 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 5: not a team that is typically going to have a 256 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 5: lot of the ball in connonable qualifying against teams like 257 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 5: Brazil and Argentina Chile, so I think that them being 258 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:53,439 Speaker 5: a little kind of out of swords plays into what 259 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:55,079 Speaker 5: Katar wants to do, which is they're going to want 260 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 5: to counter and win the ball counter and that could 261 00:10:57,760 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 5: definitely lead to some goals or a goal for Katar 262 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 5: opens things up once again for Ecuador, who. 263 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 4: Has more talent. 264 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 5: All right, BJ, we heard your thoughts on the Americans 265 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 5: first game. They're plus one seventy slight favorites over Wales, 266 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 5: who are plus two hundred. The draw is plus one ninety. 267 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:15,960 Speaker 5: Of course, these odds are from bet three six five. 268 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 5: This game is two pm kickoff on Monday. One thing 269 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 5: I want to notice that the total is very low. 270 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 5: We're looking at a two minus one ten on both sides, 271 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 5: so odds makers are saying pretty low event game. I 272 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 5: don't know if that's going to be the case, and 273 00:11:30,679 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 5: I think if it is more high event, it definitely 274 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 5: does suit the Americans. But before I give my bet, Anthony, 275 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 5: what are your thoughts here USA and Wales. 276 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 6: You mentioned the total at two in this game, and 277 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 6: I think it fits into the narrative of this group. 278 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 6: We talked about this for England, Iran and now for 279 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:47,560 Speaker 6: USA Wales. Low totals are going to be what drives 280 00:11:47,600 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 6: this group in a lot of tight, low scoring games, 281 00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 6: and there are questions about both teams in attack. 282 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 3: Wales has been in terrible for him. 283 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 6: I mean, the absolutely tropped in their Nations League group 284 00:11:56,679 --> 00:12:00,680 Speaker 6: with Netherlands, Belgium and even Poland. They manage result in 285 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 6: six matches, they haven't won any of those matches, so 286 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 6: they come into this World Cup in terrible form and 287 00:12:04,760 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 6: I know BJ is very down on them. The price 288 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 6: is not good enough for me, however, on the United 289 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 6: States to be laying you know, minus one fifteen minus 290 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 6: one twenty on the drawn no bette line, because I 291 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 6: have a lot of question marks about them as well. 292 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 6: I think that we have seen the United States excel 293 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 6: in some situations where they've been not tasked with having 294 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 6: the ball and not forced to break down an opponent 295 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 6: who's going to sit deeper. They don't have the passing 296 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 6: quality right now, and they don't have the consistency, and 297 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,719 Speaker 6: they don't have the form for me to trust them 298 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 6: as a favorite here. So I'm going to be passing 299 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 6: it would be USA or nothing, because I agree with 300 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:36,360 Speaker 6: BJ that they're the more talented team. But again, I 301 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 6: think there's a very real chance that this game is 302 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 6: a bit of a stalemate and that no one's able 303 00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 6: to really break through, because I think the US is 304 00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 6: okay transitionally in defense, but from an attacking point of view, 305 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 6: we still have a lot of question marks. And we 306 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 6: haven't really seen a lot of these USA players play 307 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 6: together because they've always been in and out of injury, 308 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 6: so it's a lot of question marks here. 309 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 3: I'm staying a WITHY. 310 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 5: I like the plus one seventy money line on the 311 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 5: US here. We've talked about the talent disparity, it's pretty wide. Typically, 312 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,439 Speaker 5: I like to bet Wales in these tournaments because they're 313 00:13:05,480 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 5: usually offered at big prices and they're so they're experts 314 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 5: that's hanging around at games making a winner through bail 315 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 5: or ramsey. But I actually think we're going to see 316 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:16,720 Speaker 5: a more aggressive Whales here. They're coming into a tournament 317 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:18,719 Speaker 5: for the first time since nineteen fifty eight. This is 318 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 5: their first World Cup since nineteen fifty eight. They're going 319 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 5: to be one of the only teams with like a 320 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:28,559 Speaker 5: really rowdy, robust, well attended visiting tourist fans because it's 321 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 5: their first World. 322 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 4: Cups, it's nineteen fifty eight. 323 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 5: It's a country that's going crazy over this team, and 324 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 5: they're going to fancy themselves to be able to nick 325 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 5: three points against the Americans, even as underdogs. So I 326 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 5: actually think we're everybody is kind of assuming that Wales 327 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 5: is going to sit back. That's what we normally see 328 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 5: them against teams in European competition, but those teams are 329 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:51,439 Speaker 5: much at a much higher level than the Americans, or 330 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 5: they're playing them in like knockout games where they just 331 00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 5: need to hang around, drag them deep into the waters, 332 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 5: and then hope that bail or Ramsey can work a 333 00:13:58,960 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 5: moment in magic to win it. 334 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,199 Speaker 4: So I actually think this game is going to be a. 335 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,200 Speaker 5: Little bit more hectic than the odds makers think, than 336 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 5: people think, and I think that should help the US 337 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,440 Speaker 5: talent level shine through. I like the United States. Anything 338 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 5: above like plus one sixty I think is playable on 339 00:14:13,520 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 5: the three way money line. So's all three of us 340 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:18,679 Speaker 5: on the Americans in some way or another. Anthony a 341 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 5: little trepidacious, but that should go well for us. Let's 342 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 5: look at the last Marquee game. We already got some 343 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 5: thoughts from Anthony on England and Iran. This is the 344 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 5: other Group B games, so we got to touch on it. 345 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 5: England's minus three hundred against Iran ten to one on 346 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 5: the money line. The draw here is plus three seventy five. 347 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 5: I'm kind of in the same boat as Anthony. I 348 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 5: think that this game has a slow start written all 349 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 5: over it, So I like the under half A goal 350 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 5: or no goals in the first half at plus one 351 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 5: sixty two, I'm expecting England to take a long time 352 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 5: to get their feet wet in this World Cup. They're 353 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 5: so conservative, they're so pragmatic, and that often just leads 354 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 5: to these slow starts. 355 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 4: Look what happened at the Euros. 356 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 5: Right, they played in a group with Scotland, Croatian and 357 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 5: the Czech Republic BJA. 358 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 4: How many goals did they score? 359 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 2: They went to the final mic Right, But for. 360 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 5: This bet, they scored two goals and only one of 361 00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 5: them came to the first half. I think we're going 362 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 5: to see a very slow starting England as they try 363 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 5: to figure out how to break down a really tenacious 364 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 5: Iran defense. So under half a goal in the first 365 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 5: half for me, payn written all over it. When Harry 366 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 5: Kane scores a third minute penalty. 367 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 2: Mm hmm yep. I like England to win. Nill. 368 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 1: Honestly, it's only sitting at minus one thirty right now. 369 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 1: I really Iran does have two good strikers. But again, 370 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 1: they're going to sit very deep. Like Anthony mentioned, they're 371 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: bringing back their manager from their past two World Cups. 372 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 1: They sat very very deep in a four to four 373 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 1: to two. They don't really come out of that. Like 374 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 1: you guys already mentioned, Yes, England does play pragmatic they 375 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:39,880 Speaker 1: do play slow, they do play intricate, but they also 376 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: don't concede. Like I already mentioned our preview podcast, they 377 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: didn't concede the Euros until the semifinals. They're only allowing 378 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 1: zero point sixty seven expected goals per ninety throughout World 379 00:15:48,600 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: qualifying and the Euros, so they're going to control a 380 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 1: lot of possession. They have the attacking players that can 381 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 1: get that one pass, get that one breakthrough against this 382 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 1: Iranian defense, and I really just don't see how I 383 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 1: ran it's going to come out and score against them. 384 00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 2: So I like England wind nail at minus one thirty. 385 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 1: I got them projected at minus one fifty two to 386 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 1: win nail against Iran, So that's where I'm going in 387 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 1: this match for the three lines. 388 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 6: Yeah, form going into the World Cup does matter, I think, 389 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,960 Speaker 6: and zero wins and six matches for England definitely has 390 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 6: me concerned about them a little bit more I think 391 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 6: about it, And I know it was the Nations League 392 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 6: and we're not really sure what to make of that, 393 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 6: but there is history that suggests the team's playing the 394 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 6: best going into the World Cup. Their last five matches 395 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 6: tend to do the best in the actual World Cup 396 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 6: and that would be a strong case for Brazil, Argentina, 397 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:34,680 Speaker 6: the Netherlands and Uruguay does not look favorably upon the English. 398 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 5: Yeah, so get those England to not qualify. Eight to 399 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 5: one bets in while you still can. All right, let's 400 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 5: wrap this thing up by looking around at the Tuesday matches. 401 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 5: Anthony will start with you, would you I guess you 402 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 5: could call this one an elimination match between Mexico and Poland. 403 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 6: It's huge, Yeah, this is likely to be the match 404 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 6: that decides second place in the group. We expect Argentina 405 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 6: to get through here, but we're not really sure what 406 00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 6: to expect between Mexico and Poland. I think this is 407 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 6: kind of similar to me for USA Whales, where I'm 408 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 6: really out on the European team and I don't want 409 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 6: to bet them in any way, shape or form, because 410 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 6: I think they're pretty overrated Poland and Wales in this situation, 411 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,879 Speaker 6: Poland had very mediocre underlying numbers in World Cup qualifying. 412 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 6: They got pretty well destroyed in their Nations League group. 413 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 6: In the non Whales games, they did beat Wales, but 414 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 6: they got crushed by the. 415 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 3: Netherlands and Belgium. In those other two four matches. 416 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 6: But I still have question marks about Mexico too, but 417 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 6: I think my question marks about Mexico are a little 418 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 6: bit fewer. 419 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 3: I think Mexico's biggest concern. 420 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 6: Could be aid profile and how well they able to 421 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,040 Speaker 6: recover for these matches and play three matches in ten days, 422 00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 6: because they are getting a little bit older and they're 423 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 6: not quite as consistent as they were going into. 424 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 3: The last couple World Cups. 425 00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 6: But I still think they're the better team than Poland, 426 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 6: solidly so, and so I'm going to take them drawing 427 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 6: no bet on the minus one ten. 428 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:48,399 Speaker 3: It's pretty close to a pickup. I think they have 429 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 3: a pretty solid midfield advantage. 430 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,720 Speaker 6: The only great equalizer here, of course, is Robert Lewandowski, 431 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 6: who can go off at any time. But Mexico is 432 00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:58,119 Speaker 6: better in BJ's ratings, Elo has them better. I think 433 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 6: they're a much better team. I'm going to take them 434 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 6: minus one ten drawn a bet. 435 00:18:01,440 --> 00:18:05,360 Speaker 5: I like a disgusting under here France and Australia under 436 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,680 Speaker 5: two and a half goals plus one twenty. I think 437 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 5: anything plus money it's fine here. The aussis the soccer ruse. 438 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:14,840 Speaker 5: They're just going to put ten guys behind the ball 439 00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,159 Speaker 5: and dare France to break them down their physical side. 440 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 5: They're going to make crosses into the box really tough. 441 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:24,640 Speaker 5: They'll win second balls. France is a very creative offensive team. 442 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 5: They're gonna want time, They're going to want to be 443 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:28,919 Speaker 5: a little tricky and Australia's is not going to let 444 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 5: them do it. They're just not gonna give them any 445 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:32,960 Speaker 5: chance to do it. That'll we've overly physical and for 446 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 5: a first match of a World Cup where everyone's coming 447 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,880 Speaker 5: from all their club teams around the world, the aussis 448 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,520 Speaker 5: for the most part that are all playing together in 449 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 5: the top division in Australia. I think that this is 450 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 5: a cohesive group that should give France some trouble breaking 451 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 5: it down. 452 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 4: Eventually they will, but it could take a while. 453 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 5: You're basically asking France to score three goals here to 454 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 5: get to the over because I don't expect Australia to 455 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:58,480 Speaker 5: do it unless we see another Tim Cahill wonder goal, 456 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 5: and he's retired, so I don't think that's very likely. 457 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,440 Speaker 5: So you're asking yourself the question, will France score three here? 458 00:19:04,720 --> 00:19:07,199 Speaker 5: I think it's less likely than it is likely, So 459 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 5: I like the plus money on under two and a 460 00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:12,679 Speaker 5: half goals France and Australia on Tuesday afternoon. All right, 461 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 5: bja take us home. 462 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:14,440 Speaker 2: Yeah. 463 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 1: I like the Denmark Tunisia under two and a half 464 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,199 Speaker 1: goals and minus one twenty five. The reality is that 465 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 1: this Denmark team, we've talked about them a lot. They 466 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: went to the semi finals of the Euro's. Main reason 467 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,400 Speaker 1: for that is because they're a very well drilled, cohesive 468 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 1: unit that's been playing together for a long time. 469 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 2: They're very very well organized defensively. 470 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: They only allowed point eighty eight expected goals per ninety 471 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: throughout Euros and World Cup qualifying. 472 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 2: They will be able to control a lot of possession 473 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:39,080 Speaker 2: in this match. 474 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 1: I highly doubt they're going to be very as aggressive 475 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 1: as they were towards the end of the Euros when 476 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 1: they needed to actually get a lot of points. You 477 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 1: saw it, you know, even after Christian Erikson went down. 478 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 1: They were very passive in their match against Finland. Tunisia 479 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,440 Speaker 1: is an interesting team. They're coming out of Africa. They 480 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 1: beat Molly over the World Cup qualifying playoffs. Over the 481 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,679 Speaker 1: two legs they only created point seventy three expected goals. 482 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: They played Nigeria and the ALF Cup of Nations. The 483 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,920 Speaker 1: only created point five to five expected goals against them, 484 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 1: so I don't expect Nishi had to really threaten this 485 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 1: Denmark defense. And Sinisia does have a very good engine 486 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 1: room midfielder and Elijah Shakiri who plays for Cologne and 487 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: the Bundesliga. He's all over the pitch, he presses well, 488 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,200 Speaker 1: he defends well. He is a great protection for their 489 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: weak back line. So and honestly, the Denmark frontline of 490 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: Casper Dolberg, Mikhale Demsgard, Scott Olson, it's not really great 491 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 1: in terms of finishing. So I project this match at 492 00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 1: two point one seven goals. So I like the under 493 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 1: two and a half at minus one twenty five. And 494 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 1: the last game we didn't talk about Argentina Saudi Arabia. 495 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,680 Speaker 1: You will have a Saudi Arabia. All their players play 496 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 1: in the Saudi Pro League. They have that leagu's been 497 00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 1: on pause since the middle of October, so they will 498 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 1: have a rest and training advantage over Argentina. But the 499 00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 1: reality is is that this Saudi team. 500 00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:48,680 Speaker 2: Is not good out of possession. 501 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,479 Speaker 1: He saw their matches in Asian Qualifying when they had 502 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 1: to play Japan, when they had to play Australia. 503 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 2: It was not good. 504 00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 1: They did look like they didn't know what to do 505 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 1: out of possession. But if it gets to a flat 506 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 1: plus two and a half, I will have to take 507 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,440 Speaker 1: Saudie Raba because of that rest advantage, because of the 508 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,199 Speaker 1: training that they've had coming into this match, and they 509 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:06,679 Speaker 1: have We're at the last World Cup as well, and 510 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,359 Speaker 1: they faced some decent competitions. 511 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 2: So That's where I'd be going in that one. 512 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 1: But that is probably the biggest snoozer I would say 513 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: of these first round of. 514 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 5: Matches that guy Lionel Messi for our team's minus won 515 00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,360 Speaker 5: sixty three to score any time in that one. 516 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 4: All right, That wraps up this. 517 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 5: Our first Wonder Goal Live episode for the World Cup. 518 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 5: We will be back on Tuesday evening to preview the 519 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 5: matches through next Friday, so be sure to join us then. 520 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 5: But until then, a reminder, Wonder Goal is presented by 521 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:37,119 Speaker 5: betriy six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up 522 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 5: with promo code action to get Betri six five's exclusive 523 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 5: sign up off for in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet 524 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 5: one dollar on any game, get two hundred free for 525 00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:47,720 Speaker 5: Anthony Dbundo for bj Cunningham I'm michae Leaboff, wishing you 526 00:21:47,920 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 5: the best of luck with all your World Cup becks. 527 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,399 Speaker 5: The flash had a fam the stair