WEBVTT - Odd Lots Live: What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond 0:00:03.160 --> 0:00:16.080 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:20.160 --> 0:00:23.440 Hello and welcome to another episode of the Audlots Podcast. 0:00:23.560 --> 0:00:24.960 I'm Tracy Alloway. 0:00:24.640 --> 0:00:26.400 And I'm Joe. Why isn't Joe? 0:00:26.480 --> 0:00:29.240 This is very special. This is actually this must be 0:00:29.280 --> 0:00:32.199 our fastest turnaround time on an episode ever. 0:00:32.680 --> 0:00:34.040 Well, it is election day. 0:00:34.240 --> 0:00:37.919 Yes, I think we had technically a faster turnaround day 0:00:37.960 --> 0:00:39.600 on the day of the Baltimore Bridge collapse. 0:00:39.720 --> 0:00:42.879 Okay, fine, fine, but this was like four hours of 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:47.560 content that we are squeezing into a very timely episode. 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:50.360 So what you are about to hear is a live 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:55.640 recording of the Audlots Podcast, multiple panels, multiple conversations, that 0:00:55.720 --> 0:00:59.320 took place on November fourth, at a recording in front 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:01.280 of a live audio in New York. 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:01.880 That's right. 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:05.240 So today is an election day. Last night was election Eve. 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:08.119 We figured a bunch of people, if they have preferences 0:01:08.120 --> 0:01:10.760 in this election, we're probably anxious looking for something to 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:13.959 do other than just sort of refresh the Internet and 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:16.600 refresh Twitter all night. So I figure, why not get 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:18.959 some of our favorite guests over the years from the 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:22.360 podcast and get our fans who we always love seeing 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:26.760 our listeners and hang out and talk politics and policy 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:29.679 for a little while. And I didn't drink, actually, but 0:01:29.760 --> 0:01:30.480 some people drank. 0:01:30.560 --> 0:01:31.319 I stress drink. 0:01:31.520 --> 0:01:32.000 I did it. 0:01:32.080 --> 0:01:32.800 Yeah I didn't. 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:36.920 But what better way to spend election day than listening 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:39.880 to some live recordings of the au Thoughts podcast. So 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:43.000 what you are about to hear is a selection of 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:47.080 the conversations. We had some amazing guests. So we started 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:49.480 with Zoe lu She is of course a senior fellow 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:52.600 for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:56.320 we had her with Jordan Schneider of the China Talk podcast. 0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:58.600 We've spoken to both of them before, but we had 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:01.600 a great conversation about what's going on in China right 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:05.800 now and what could possibly happen with US China trade. 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:08.760 Right and then where this particular episode will pick up. 0:02:09.240 --> 0:02:13.400 Then we had a conversation with Neil Dutta of Renaissance 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:19.079 Macro Research, Sconda Amernath, executive director at Employee America. And 0:02:19.240 --> 0:02:21.200 we had a special guest that we kind of have 0:02:21.280 --> 0:02:24.840 to explain here for a second, because otherwise some of 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:28.480 the conversation might not make any sense. We had zvie Maashwitz, 0:02:28.680 --> 0:02:31.120 and he is a prediction market's better. 0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:31.840 He's a writer. 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:35.799 He's a legendary designer of Magic the Gathering Decks. He's 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:38.320 an advisor to Polymarket. He used to be a Jane 0:02:38.320 --> 0:02:40.519 Street trader. We're gonna have to have him on some time. 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:42.000 Tracy just yeah, it's totally separated. 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:42.560 He was great. 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:45.440 I just want to talk to him about deck construction, deck. 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:48.320 Construction in Jane Street. Let's do like that episode. 0:02:48.440 --> 0:02:52.040 Okay, But Zphie, in addition to all those things, set 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:56.320 up a betting pool on Manifold for which podcast he 0:02:56.360 --> 0:02:59.320 would actually appear on in twenty twenty four, and one 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:01.320 of those options was blocks, right. 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:03.399 He set it up at the beginning of the year, 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:07.320 and so there's all these different possibilities which podcast will 0:03:07.840 --> 0:03:11.120 appear on. And just again to sort of set the stage, 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:13.920 we never announced the t V is going to be 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.480 part of this. He is our mystery guest. But we 0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:20.560 flashed the market onto the screen behind us while we 0:03:20.560 --> 0:03:24.120 were at caveat the place where we recorded the episode, 0:03:24.400 --> 0:03:28.200 and then during the conversation we watched as the market 0:03:28.280 --> 0:03:29.399 slowly repriced. 0:03:29.800 --> 0:03:31.960 It's very priced up and down. 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:33.399 It was very strange. 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:36.720 My belief in efficient markets has been completely debunked. 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:38.840 No, you know what, it was this is actually really interesting. 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:41.120 There was someone in the audience who was using free 0:03:41.320 --> 0:03:45.440 manifold tokens to bring the probability down even as V 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:49.200 was actually on stage. So a live experiment in how 0:03:49.240 --> 0:03:50.640 prediction markets work. 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:53.120 How they actually work right. Well, Actually, one of the 0:03:53.200 --> 0:03:54.840 things you'll hear is V talks a lot about one 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:58.160 of the constraints and prediction markets being a capital constraints 0:03:58.200 --> 0:04:00.400 among traders. Yeah, so here's a guy who currently had 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:03.000 no capital construction because he had free tooken, and you 0:04:03.040 --> 0:04:06.200 see how much that destroys that. So we started off 0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:10.600 that conversation to about all things markets, finance, what to 0:04:10.640 --> 0:04:13.840 watch it polling, what to watch for in tonight's selection yep. 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:17.000 And then our headliner of the evening was Brad Setzer. 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:19.480 He is, of course a senior fellow at the Council 0:04:19.640 --> 0:04:22.640 on Foreign Relations, one of our favorite guests. We've had 0:04:22.680 --> 0:04:25.120 him on I can't even remember how many times. 0:04:25.080 --> 0:04:26.640 Nine times now probably Yeah. 0:04:26.680 --> 0:04:32.360 He was also a trade advisor to USTR's Catherine Tie 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:35.719 under the Biden administration, So someone who definitely knows what's 0:04:35.920 --> 0:04:38.480 up when it comes to, I guess, the sausage making 0:04:38.839 --> 0:04:43.120 of trade policy. So a fantastic group, a great evening. 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:45.880 Big thanks to everyone who came, and if you weren't 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:48.800 able to make it in person, we hope you enjoy 0:04:49.200 --> 0:04:50.159 this version. 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:53.760 Right so start off check out our first our conversation 0:04:54.200 --> 0:04:57.600 with Skanda, Neil and Zvie. We have some great guests 0:04:57.760 --> 0:04:59.040 coming up and. 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:00.520 Bowser chance to money. 0:05:00.640 --> 0:05:01.800 Now's your chance you could play. 0:05:03.520 --> 0:05:05.960 We have a one of the people I'm not gonna 0:05:05.960 --> 0:05:08.360 say who it is, but one of the people that 0:05:08.400 --> 0:05:11.000 we will be having on the show is an avid 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:16.000 prediction markets trader expert in this area, and I'm not gonna. 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:19.720 Say who it is, but it's a mystery mystery guest. 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:23.760 So let's bring to the stage, in no particular order, 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:29.719 we have a Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro Research, frequent 0:05:29.760 --> 0:05:35.400 odd Lots guests, and we have Skanda Amernath of Employee America, 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:42.800 another frequent odd Lots guest. And we have Zvimashewitz. He's 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:46.920 a writer, trader into prediction markets and stuff and currently 0:05:47.000 --> 0:05:49.760 on Manifold Markets. There's a twenty percent chance that he 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:52.600 appears on odd Lots in the year twenty twenty four, 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:55.760 so we're doing a little test of prediction markets or sorry, 0:05:55.880 --> 0:05:58.480 efficient markets right here live on stage, so. 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:03.000 Thank you so much. He's ready to insider trade. 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:06.120 He hasn't insider traded on his own market yet, but 0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:07.120 it's just sitting there. 0:06:08.000 --> 0:06:10.599 We'll see, we'll see if the odds move. We'll see. 0:06:10.600 --> 0:06:12.800 If the odds move, they should be at one hundred percent. 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:17.000 So yeah, I guess prediction markets are debunked if they 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:18.880 don't immediately move to one hundred percent. 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:21.279 Actually, V, let's start with you. 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:24.160 When you look at any prediction markets and you're also 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:26.000 advisor to polymarket. 0:06:25.520 --> 0:06:28.279 Yes, I'm advised it's your trader prediction market guy. 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:30.520 Oh there it is. It moved up to forty four percent, 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:33.080 still works, It's still. 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:35.360 Not high enough, Like it's still I'm not sure. 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:39.039 It's literally on stage, is literally on stage right now? 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:41.400 Like how do you note that? Yes, but you don't 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:42.279 think you should take it farther? 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:49.120 Yeah, it's something for okay whatever, maybe if someone, oh 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:53.440 there it is, someone tweet this out. There's still fourteen 0:06:53.480 --> 0:06:57.679 percent gains to be made. The IRR of fourteen percent 0:06:57.800 --> 0:07:00.480 in like thirty seconds of increduble anyway, when we see 0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:04.000 these odds, not for this market, apparently, but when we 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:07.440 see these poly market and kelshy odds, et cetera. They say, whatever, 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:09.560 how seriously should we take them? 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:13.360 I take them at least as seriously as any other 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:15.880 data point or source of information that we have available. 0:07:16.160 --> 0:07:17.360 They are the best thing we have. 0:07:17.800 --> 0:07:20.800 It's up to there's still a chance that you're not 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:22.280 appearing on this stage right now. 0:07:22.560 --> 0:07:25.600 Yeah, wait, why do you they're the best thing we have? Like, 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:29.280 please explain in the context of this still being stuck 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:30.400 at ninety four percent. 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:33.160 Well, if you're on the internet, what other source do 0:07:33.160 --> 0:07:36.080 you have other than the actual broadcast? Like obviously, if 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:38.160 you're looking at the poll not just the polls, but 0:07:38.240 --> 0:07:41.040 like the actual ballots and you're like, oh, I guess 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:44.400 we know who won, then that's better than a prediction market. 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:47.480 But anything short of that that we have is going 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:50.760 to be incorporated into the prediction market, right, So, like 0:07:51.000 --> 0:07:54.000 the polls, the aggrogations, the projections, all of that gets 0:07:54.000 --> 0:07:57.680 worked into how we trade the prediction markets. So for 0:07:57.720 --> 0:07:59.920 the prediction markets to be wrong, there has to be 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:02.080 is thematic mistake. And those mistakes do happen, and you 0:08:02.120 --> 0:08:04.200 can in fact profit from them, but it cannot to 0:08:04.240 --> 0:08:05.040 be very large. 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:08.920 Neil, what about real markets, and you know, you're always 0:08:08.960 --> 0:08:14.040 watching what's happened what I said, real markets, the ticker DJT, 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:19.000 what's happening in rates, maybe regional banks. What are you 0:08:19.200 --> 0:08:21.000 like seeing over the last few days or what are 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:22.800 you going to be sort of watching in terms of 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:24.720 the real markets and how they trade. 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:29.120 Well, I I mean, my work suggests that the sort 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:33.240 of Trump trade, particularly with respective fixed income markets, wasn't 0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:35.840 so much Trump, I mean, as it was just stronger 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:39.400 economic news. I mean, you have to remember that the increasing 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:42.280 probability at least up until recently, that you know, Trump 0:08:42.360 --> 0:08:45.640 would you know, sweep into the White House. That was 0:08:45.720 --> 0:08:50.720 coinciding at a time of you know, meaningful data surprises 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:52.520 to the upside, we had a strong job's number of 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:56.679 strong retail sales. Jobless claims have been low. So I 0:08:56.760 --> 0:09:00.320 think it's less about politics and a lot more just 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:03.200 about the data as it's been coming out. I mean, 0:09:03.240 --> 0:09:05.800 in terms of what I'm going to be watching in particular, 0:09:06.480 --> 0:09:08.960 my sense is that people will just replay the twenty 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:13.080 sixteen playbook if if that's what happens, and if you 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:16.199 get the alternative, in which case I think it's likely 0:09:16.360 --> 0:09:19.640 that you know a Vice President Harris Wins. You probably 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:22.960 get a Republican center. You probably see, you know, a 0:09:23.040 --> 0:09:24.360 rally and fixed income. 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:29.760 Scanda. What are you watching? Because with poles, so obviously 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:32.240 there's a lot of you know, people have strong opinions 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:35.840 about the usefulness of poles. I kind of think, like 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:40.600 who is answering the phone anymore? If someone an unidentified 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:43.199 number is calling them, it feels like there's a bias 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:46.360 to towards a certain demographic that's actually picking up the phone. 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:48.200 But what are you watching? 0:09:49.000 --> 0:09:51.400 Yeah, I mean I think there's a clear limit on 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:53.240 what poles are going to be able to tell you 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:58.040 be on a certain point. I think that itself just 0:09:58.120 --> 0:09:59.600 kind of tells you it's close. 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:01.680 It's probably fifty to fifty. 0:10:02.280 --> 0:10:04.720 Your ability to discern whether it's fifty fifty or sixty 0:10:04.800 --> 0:10:07.040 forty is pretty limited, even like you could make a 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:11.040 case for sixty forty for either side. But beyond this, like, 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:13.280 we don't have a lot of information that polls tell 0:10:13.360 --> 0:10:16.240 us poles are scammier. 0:10:16.280 --> 0:10:18.360 Now what do you mean by that? 0:10:19.080 --> 0:10:21.680 There are some establishments that seem a little less scrupulous 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:24.319 that do a good job of gaming the rating systems. 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:27.600 So I guess like to give the finance analogy, so 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:30.040 passive versus active, like the idea of just like, okay, 0:10:30.520 --> 0:10:33.360 just trust the aggregation more so than in visual polls. 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:36.920 But now we have like a weird set of partisan 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:41.000 or quasi partisan polsters that come in less transparent methodologies 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:44.120 and the attempts to make process to better understand who's 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:44.880 better who's worse. 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:46.040 That's not great. 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:48.400 So we actually have like aggregators that I don't pay 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:51.120 as much attention to relative to. Just like, Okay, if 0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:52.840 there's a good poll from a whether it's a republican 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:55.439 establishment or democratic establishment, there are some good ones on 0:10:55.480 --> 0:10:57.719 either side, I think that's got more information in it. 0:10:57.920 --> 0:11:00.439 But even then it's like very limited, there's a ceiling. 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:04.240 I mean, I'd be more curious to see about the 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:07.559 geographic distribution. So obviously the Sphing states come out seven 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:11.480 pm onwards. We get some early states I report early 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:14.520 but are read. Just seeing the geographic distribution is gonna 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:17.400 be kind of interesting because that's actually the polarizing thing 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:22.160 I see, which is urban like urban versus more democratic 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:25.720 trending suburban versus rural, And it's like ultimately about the 0:11:25.720 --> 0:11:29.080 margins and how those shift relatives of twenty twenty. That's like, 0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:33.439 still not really clear about how many new Trump voters 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:35.400 can come out of the would work there were a 0:11:35.400 --> 0:11:37.960 lot in twenty twenty and how much will a lot 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:40.959 of those suburbs swing further to the left. Yeah, these 0:11:40.960 --> 0:11:42.400 are all kind of open questions, and I don't think 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:44.760 we have great ways of betchmarking probability be on a 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:45.520 certain point. 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:50.000 Zv Anskanda, maybe can you explain the hurting controversy. I've 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:52.360 been seeing a lot of tweets like upholsters are hurting 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:56.600 and what's that? And then I don't know, how do 0:11:56.640 --> 0:11:59.240 you heard exactly? Like what is that all about? 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:00.679 Like doing? 0:12:00.800 --> 0:12:03.720 So? The idea is, if you have a poll and 0:12:03.760 --> 0:12:06.040 you come up with the same results as every other pollster, 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:08.000 and so everyone is saying Harris plus one or Trump 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:09.439 plus one, you come out with Harris plus one or 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.840 Trump plus one or zero, then no matter what happens 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:15.160 in the election, this is not your fault, right, you 0:12:15.200 --> 0:12:17.640 didn't screw up. But if you were to say Harris 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:20.960 plus four and then Trump wins that state, then suddenly 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:23.720 everyone looks at you and goes, you're terrible, your career 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:25.920 is over, You're an idiot, and to lesser extent if 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:28.079 it's Trump plus four. So what a lot of these 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:31.160 pollsters are very cretively doing batistical analysis for the polls 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:34.520 is they are cooking their books, putting their fingers on 0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:37.679 the scale to make sure that their number comes back 0:12:37.840 --> 0:12:40.000 very close to what everyone else is saying. And there 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:42.560 are only a few, like New York Times Morning consults 0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:46.160 that are clearly not doing that. And often they'll also 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:48.000 do this thing where they'll take a poll and they'll 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:49.640 see the result is like way off, and then maybe 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:51.959 they just won't release it, or they'll find a way 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:54.280 to adjust it or whatever they have to do. And 0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:57.840 Nate Silver recently posted recently on Twitter the chance of 0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:00.559 all these polls coming in this close even if the 0:13:00.640 --> 0:13:02.920 race was actually tied on the order of one in 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:05.439 nine trillions. So it's clearly just not a coincidence. 0:13:06.559 --> 0:13:09.679 So what actually happens on prediction markets on election night? 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.640 I imagine like things are going to be moving quite a bit. 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:16.520 But also when does the actual payout occur for Trump 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:17.319 versus Harris? 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:22.079 So the payout depends on the exact terms of the contract. 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.040 So four years ago, we had a lot of very 0:13:25.040 --> 0:13:27.520 interesting discussions going on behind the scenes, and a lot 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:31.600 of very public yelling as different sites proposed to pay 0:13:31.640 --> 0:13:33.440 out based on the fact that Biden had actually won 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:36.160 the election, and other people very much disputing that Biden 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:38.840 hadn't won the election, and in fact buying Trump long 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:42.440 after Biden had won the election. Yeah, I made some 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:45.760 money on that. That was kind of awesome. And so 0:13:46.280 --> 0:13:48.839 I mean, like the bets before election day, they did Okay, 0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:51.000 I won them, but I should have held my money. 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:54.920 The bets afterwards so much better. But the way it 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:58.440 works is there's a technical rule for when the bet 0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:01.560 pays out, and this convey based on where you bet. 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:04.959 So what are the ways to do it? Did you say, Okay, 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:08.640 if the networks call the election, then that counts because 0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:10.719 they're being very conservative these days. And then we pay 0:14:10.760 --> 0:14:13.240 out immediately no matter what happens. And that way you 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:15.319 don't have to hold it for weeks and weeks, including 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:17.120 if there's another dispute, which you know, we all hope 0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:18.959 there isn't, but you never know that. 0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:21.640 The way happened, it occurred to me, so you're now 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:24.200 at ninety six percent chance of appearing on odd lats. 0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:26.360 It occurred to me there may be some ambiguity of 0:14:26.360 --> 0:14:29.480 the rules because this this audio could I don't want 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:31.120 to jinx it, but maybe it never comes to see 0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:33.360 the light of day. And so maybe just the same 0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:36.720 way people are wondering the technical rules of your contract 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:39.720 here and whether interviewing you on the stage is the 0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:41.920 same as appearing on the podcast. Let's get to a 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:47.760 little macro neil monetary policy. Have you been contacted about 0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:49.920 being either the next fed share or being on the 0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:51.920 FOMC in the event of. 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:52.880 A Trump victory. 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:54.800 What are you trying to say? 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:56.680 I am not saying anything. 0:14:56.760 --> 0:14:59.880 I'm simply asking whether the transition team has reached out 0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:00.640 not a role. 0:15:00.640 --> 0:15:03.080 I've not been contacted, and I wouldn't expect you, though 0:15:03.080 --> 0:15:06.400 I know people that are that traffic in those circles. 0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:09.040 Okay, do you what do you like when you think 0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:12.920 about the medium term trajectory of monetary policy under a 0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:18.160 theoretical Trump administration or a Harris administration. Does tomorrow night 0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:20.920 sort of change your outlook on that type of policy? 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:23.800 Not really? I mean I think in terms of what 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:26.400 I typically do, as you know, I don't let political 0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:30.600 outcomes really affect my kind of near term decision making 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:33.360 in terms of what my monetary policy call is going 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:35.680 to be. I think the next few rate cuts are 0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:40.120 really just baked, I mean, regardless of who wins. And 0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:43.320 that's because I think the underlying dynamics in the economy 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:47.160 are still kind of pointing to slower growth, benign inflation, 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:52.000 and probably ongoing monetary policy recalibration. So I don't think 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:54.880 that's going to change, you know, before the first quarter 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:57.760 of next year. So I think they'll they'll keep cutting. 0:15:57.960 --> 0:16:00.320 It's really just about how much they will gone to. 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:02.520 I'd be curious to get your take on this as well, 0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:05.120 like what kind of economy or how would you characterize 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:08.280 the economy that either Harris or Trump will inherit. 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:13.080 So, I mean, all things considered, like employment's still very high, 0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:17.320 inflation is generally falling. I mean, each month is their bumps. 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:20.640 That's not a bad hand to be given. Productivity growth 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:23.680 looks like it's picking up a gear at least for 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:26.600 the time being. All these things are pretty good at 0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:28.560 the same time. To Neil's point, there are gonna be 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:31.280 some foreseeing signs that growth will be slower in Q 0:16:31.360 --> 0:16:34.640 four and probably Q one, and for that reason, like 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:36.760 we're kind of see some some bumps in the road. 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:40.640 I don't think that policy is going to be changing 0:16:40.720 --> 0:16:44.320 on a dime, even if like Trump goes for really 0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:46.920 aggressive tariffs. These are not things that will be done overnight. 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:48.920 And so that's like the kind of friction in the system. 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:51.080 Everyone likes to talk about politics and how it's relevant 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:54.920 to markets, and there will be some election reaction, but 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:57.080 it's like as twenty sixteen kind of told you, right, 0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:00.120 whatever correlation structure was their pre election, doesn't it to 0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:03.480 be their pro selection. And I do think that's like 0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.000 something is to be mindful of. As far as like 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:08.400 policy will take more time to change, I think it's 0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:12.080 pretty clear that if it's a Harris administration, it's probably 0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:15.600 with the Republican Senate, there's like some compromise on tax policy. 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:17.680 You're not going to get big things done. 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:19.600 But I don't think there's even like a huge appetite 0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:22.440 within the Democratic Party to do big things. That's a 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:24.399 little different in terms of like like they've already passed 0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.520 all legislation, right, but in terms of Republicans they actually 0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:27.720 have a. 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:28.720 Good shot at trifect though. 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:31.760 Right if that happens, then the box opens up. They 0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:34.760 might cut corporate taxes more, but there's also more discretion 0:17:35.119 --> 0:17:38.440 on like trade and immigration that Trump could wield. 0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:40.359 Well, I was just gonna say, I mean, if you 0:17:40.400 --> 0:17:43.920 go back to twenty seventeen, remember that discussion around monetary offset. 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:47.320 We were all talking about monetary offset because the idea was, well, 0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:48.840 you know, Trump is going to be this sort of 0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:51.800 inflationary demon, and you know the Fed has to do 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:55.959 all this sort of rate hikes to offset. And in hindsight, 0:17:56.040 --> 0:17:58.280 there wasn't really a monetary offset. They ended up doing 0:17:58.400 --> 0:17:59.920 more or less what they were planning to do. So, 0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:03.600 you know, I just think it's it's important to kind 0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:05.960 of try to separate these things out and just sort 0:18:06.000 --> 0:18:07.520 of take the world as it comes to you. I 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:10.440 think that's as opposed to trying to forecast in front 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:12.640 run sort of potential fiscal outcomes. 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:13.320 I mean, if you're the. 0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:16.960 FITZV, do you see anyone, Well, you're back down to 0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:17.639 fifty percent. 0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:18.960 How did that happen? 0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:21.000 We've fallen. 0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:25.040 Someone hit the cell and apparently the order book must 0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:26.439 not be They're like, all right, I'm going to take 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:28.760 my profits at ninety six percent. And I guess the 0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:32.480 order book was pretty thin because whoever just sold you like, 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:35.640 really got a bad price on that, So you shouldn't 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:37.919 have sold whoever that was. 0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:44.399 Oh okay, there you go. Yeah, it gotta get we 0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:45.480 gotta get some liquidity. 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:49.680 Here is anyone doing, like, do you see people in 0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:54.320 your world trading cross between the prediction markets and the 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:57.320 real the real markets, I don't know what to call them, 0:18:57.800 --> 0:18:59.639 oh market, you know. Do you see much of that 0:18:59.760 --> 0:19:02.720 where it is like, you know, this should this level 0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:05.320 of confidence in Trump is not consistent with this thing 0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:08.399 we're seeing in I don't know, bitcoin or something like that. 0:19:08.480 --> 0:19:09.240 Are you seeing much of that? 0:19:09.640 --> 0:19:13.359 So you earlier asked what happens on election night, and 0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:15.440 what happens on election night is that the odds will 0:19:15.480 --> 0:19:19.520 move dramatically and they will respond very quickly to every 0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:22.600 piece of news. And there's both the reaction that happens 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:24.919 when the news is available to those who are paying attention. 0:19:25.040 --> 0:19:27.320 So like if the counties file their numbers online, there's 0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:29.040 some people who are downloading the information from the counties 0:19:29.080 --> 0:19:30.879 and they have their spreadsheets ready and they're analyzing all 0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:33.200 the details and they're trying to stay ahead of the game. 0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:35.080