1
00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:04,720
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Solid Verbal.

2
00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:05,560
Speaker 2: Hell that for me.

3
00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:08,159
Speaker 1: I'm a man, I'm for it.

4
00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:10,119
Speaker 2: I've heard so many players say, well, I want to

5
00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,000
Speaker 2: be happy. You want to be happy for Dake Edo Steak.

6
00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:14,760
Speaker 1: Is that woo woom?

7
00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:21,040
Speaker 2: And Dan and Tie welcome everybody too the Solid Verbal.

8
00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:23,760
Speaker 2: My name is Dan. I'm doing this intro because Tye

9
00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,280
Speaker 2: has happily accepted a new position handling crisis PR for

10
00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:31,560
Speaker 2: the University of North Carolina, and we're all rooting for Tie.

11
00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:34,919
Speaker 2: With his background and communications, everything is going to go

12
00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:39,160
Speaker 2: so smoothly for Coach Belichick, for Tie, and I can't

13
00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,599
Speaker 2: wait to see how this all turns out. So we're

14
00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:46,000
Speaker 2: going with the next best guest co host today for

15
00:00:46,120 --> 00:00:51,200
Speaker 2: the Solid Verbal, and that would be from ESPN, Bill Connolly. Bill,

16
00:00:51,240 --> 00:00:51,840
Speaker 2: how's life.

17
00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,320
Speaker 1: It's not too bad, you know. It's my job's a

18
00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:57,360
Speaker 1: lot easier than that one, So I'm feeling pretty good.

19
00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,520
Speaker 2: I can't imagine. I did see the story that that

20
00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:03,800
Speaker 2: Bill Belichick has reached out because his old PR point

21
00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:06,600
Speaker 2: person I think is now Bill O'Brien's chief of staff.

22
00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:07,840
Speaker 2: I don't know if you saw any of this.

23
00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:10,039
Speaker 1: I didn't see that part. I saw that he was

24
00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:12,640
Speaker 1: reaching ooh yeah, okay.

25
00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,800
Speaker 2: So we'll see how that turns out. I don't think

26
00:01:15,840 --> 00:01:18,960
Speaker 2: Bill Connolly has any specific insights into the behind the

27
00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,360
Speaker 2: scenes goings on at North Carolina, But if you want

28
00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:22,520
Speaker 2: to break any news.

29
00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:28,680
Speaker 1: Everything I've learned about that whole situation was against my will. Yeah,

30
00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:32,119
Speaker 1: I had no interest in learning anything that I've learned

31
00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:35,720
Speaker 1: about any of that over the last five months. So

32
00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,520
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to when the game start we can

33
00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:40,959
Speaker 1: actually talk about that. But in the meantime, no, I'm

34
00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:42,680
Speaker 1: all those pass on this whole thing.

35
00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:48,040
Speaker 2: Like his name, brethren, Bill Connolly is wearing a college

36
00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:50,600
Speaker 2: sweatshirt on this If you're watching on YouTube, there are

37
00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,480
Speaker 2: no rips like Bill Belichick had on his CBS interview.

38
00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:55,760
Speaker 2: This is a SWOSU. Are they the bulldogs?

39
00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:58,360
Speaker 1: A good bulldog too, pretty good bulldog.

40
00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:00,760
Speaker 2: It's a good bulldog. It's the ghost, which I don't

41
00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,040
Speaker 2: always love, but it works on a bulldog. Thank you

42
00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,360
Speaker 2: for wearing a non RiPP sweatshirt. So you wrote on

43
00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:10,800
Speaker 2: ESPN dot com a piece late last week about twenty

44
00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:14,960
Speaker 2: twenty four's luckiest and unluckiest teams, which is a I mean,

45
00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,320
Speaker 2: those are two loaded words in the college football universe.

46
00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:21,280
Speaker 2: As you know, and you pointed out and you showed

47
00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:23,680
Speaker 2: your work what lucky means, what unlucky means, and what

48
00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,760
Speaker 2: that could mean for twenty twenty five, even with all

49
00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:30,239
Speaker 2: of the movement that always happens within the sport, and

50
00:02:30,480 --> 00:02:33,880
Speaker 2: you came to a number of conclusions might be too

51
00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:38,360
Speaker 2: rigid a word, but you came to some interesting places

52
00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,639
Speaker 2: with what you found. So if you could describe for

53
00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:44,480
Speaker 2: people who don't know what lucky actually means and what

54
00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,560
Speaker 2: unlucky actually means per your numbers.

55
00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:50,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, the whole social media falling a part thing I think,

56
00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,519
Speaker 1: you know, was good for me in this instance because

57
00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:55,120
Speaker 1: you use a call on a team lucky is the

58
00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,560
Speaker 1: best way to get yourself yelled at. Yeah, now, I

59
00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:01,280
Speaker 1: this was fun. I you know, I've talked about turnovers

60
00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,560
Speaker 1: luck a lot through the years. I've talked about you know,

61
00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,760
Speaker 1: I haven't really ever quantified injuries luck, but we always

62
00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:13,280
Speaker 1: talk about it. And then you know, the whole one score,

63
00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,920
Speaker 1: you know, your record in one score, game, second order wins,

64
00:03:16,080 --> 00:03:18,640
Speaker 1: post game win expectancy, that kind of stuff. End up

65
00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:21,520
Speaker 1: talking a lot about that too, And so basically just

66
00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:25,280
Speaker 1: decided to dump this all into one giant post with

67
00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:29,120
Speaker 1: three giant tables in early May and kind of liked

68
00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:31,720
Speaker 1: how it turned out. There was Yeah, we're talking about

69
00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:34,160
Speaker 1: three different things here. We start off talking about turnovers luck,

70
00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:38,000
Speaker 1: which is, you know, you can basically look at, you know,

71
00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,960
Speaker 1: the old Phil Steele turnovers equal turnaround thing from way

72
00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:43,920
Speaker 1: back when I think that's what planted this whole idea

73
00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:47,080
Speaker 1: in my head, right, But you know, we can take

74
00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,560
Speaker 1: it a little bit beyond simply looking at who had

75
00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:52,280
Speaker 1: the best or words turnover marching, because you know, the

76
00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,160
Speaker 1: number of fumbles you commit in a given season or four,

77
00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:57,520
Speaker 1: so whatever can change. Maybe you have a little control

78
00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:00,360
Speaker 1: over that, but we know that at the end of

79
00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,800
Speaker 1: the season you'll probably you're supposed to have recovered about

80
00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,600
Speaker 1: fifty percent of all fumbles. And the other part that

81
00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:12,160
Speaker 1: I dive into is the ratio of interceptions to pass breakups.

82
00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:15,960
Speaker 1: Typically that's about one to four. About twenty ish percent

83
00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:19,080
Speaker 1: of your overall passes defended will be interceptions. So we

84
00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:20,800
Speaker 1: can kind of take that. We can start there and

85
00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,359
Speaker 1: then basically look at what everybody actually did in the

86
00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:26,920
Speaker 1: turnovers department, and we can see that you know, there

87
00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:28,880
Speaker 1: are always going to be some teams with pretty big differences.

88
00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,560
Speaker 1: JMU led the nation in that difference. They should have

89
00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,320
Speaker 1: their their turnover margin should have been about plus eight,

90
00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:38,040
Speaker 1: but it was plus twenty. That's probably bad for JMU.

91
00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,200
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty five, Indiana was really high on this

92
00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:45,320
Speaker 1: list too. They were plus fifteen overall, it probably should

93
00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:47,719
Speaker 1: have been about plus five. Clemson was in the same range,

94
00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,560
Speaker 1: so that we can confidently say that they probably benefited

95
00:04:51,560 --> 00:04:54,040
Speaker 1: more from bounces than they should have. And then at

96
00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:56,680
Speaker 1: the other end, poor Southern mess they were going to

97
00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:58,800
Speaker 1: be bad no matter what, but their turnover margin should

98
00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:00,920
Speaker 1: have been about minus eight and it was minus nineteen

99
00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:05,000
Speaker 1: insteads they brought up the rear in that category. Although

100
00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:07,359
Speaker 1: if everything flips this year, then they have a new coach.

101
00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:09,920
Speaker 1: Good new coach. Actually, that was one of my favorite

102
00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,280
Speaker 1: hires of the offseason. He can get a couple of

103
00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:13,680
Speaker 1: bounds as they can start off strong.

104
00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:18,640
Speaker 2: Can you extrapolate that to even a further step almost

105
00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:23,360
Speaker 2: and saying like, yes, fumbles are a fifty to fifty

106
00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:26,160
Speaker 2: coin flip, but this team happened to play a lot

107
00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:29,320
Speaker 2: of fumble prone teams. Or you know, the interception and

108
00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,279
Speaker 2: passes defended, you know, it's one in four one in five,

109
00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,000
Speaker 2: but they actually went on a run of a lot

110
00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,599
Speaker 2: of sloppy quarterbacks who were throwing a lot of interceptible balls.

111
00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:40,719
Speaker 2: Or is that too far down the rabbit hole we

112
00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:43,240
Speaker 2: could I mean, the fumbles part will just average.

113
00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:46,520
Speaker 1: And since you know it really is like offenses are

114
00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:48,960
Speaker 1: going to recover fifty to fifty one percent, like we

115
00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:50,680
Speaker 1: can pretty much say, like, you know, if there are

116
00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:55,280
Speaker 1: more fumbles than you know it, I guess we can

117
00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,640
Speaker 1: sort of say that, well, no, because I guess that'll

118
00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:02,160
Speaker 1: come out in the expected turnover margins. To think about it,

119
00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:04,680
Speaker 1: because yeah, if you played a lot of teams that

120
00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:07,240
Speaker 1: fumbled more, and they fumbled more against you, then you know,

121
00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:09,800
Speaker 1: it's still what you would have recovered half of them.

122
00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:14,080
Speaker 2: The same oblong ball that does the weird bouncy that's right, Okay, But.

123
00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:15,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just try to take it a little bit

124
00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,920
Speaker 1: beyond simply looking at turnover margin. Although if you look

125
00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:21,080
Speaker 1: at the turnover margins, it's gonna it's gonna be approximately

126
00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:22,240
Speaker 1: the same list regardless.

127
00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:25,000
Speaker 2: So who did And I don't know if it's unluckiest,

128
00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:30,919
Speaker 2: because unlucky means the numbers were just not favoring that team,

129
00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:33,200
Speaker 2: right that they lost way too many fumbles or way

130
00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:35,360
Speaker 2: too many tip passes came down in the hands of

131
00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,520
Speaker 2: a safety's arms. I don't know what the term would

132
00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:40,600
Speaker 2: be that if you're not lucky, nor are you unlucky,

133
00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,960
Speaker 2: you're just expected. Like that's almost the most depressing thing.

134
00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:46,760
Speaker 2: If a team is bad and they were neither unfortunate

135
00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,640
Speaker 2: or fortunate. I think I saw Wisconsin was sort of

136
00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:52,240
Speaker 2: squarely in the middle there where they didn't benefit and

137
00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:55,160
Speaker 2: they you know, they didn't suffer. What do you learn

138
00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:57,000
Speaker 2: from teams like that? It just they are who they are.

139
00:06:57,279 --> 00:06:59,280
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, the other part of that is like

140
00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:01,800
Speaker 1: ball State was the fourth most lucky team in the

141
00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,919
Speaker 1: turnovers department and they were bad, right exactly. C was

142
00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,040
Speaker 1: fifth most lucky and they were not very good. So

143
00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:09,240
Speaker 1: that that's certainly that in and of itself, it's kind

144
00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:12,360
Speaker 1: of a scary thought, but yeah, I mean it is

145
00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:14,560
Speaker 1: kind of You can look in the middle, like Alabama

146
00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:16,200
Speaker 1: was right in the middle. They had one of the

147
00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:20,360
Speaker 1: most the single most unlucky turnovers of the season in

148
00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:24,720
Speaker 1: that amazingly perfect tip pass that Vanderbilt ended up picking

149
00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,520
Speaker 1: off and returning for a touchdown. They actually had bad turnovers.

150
00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:29,720
Speaker 1: Look in that specific game, but other games they were fine.

151
00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,320
Speaker 1: So they were right in the middle. You know, we'll

152
00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:34,720
Speaker 1: talk about Alabama shortly if we're going down these lists,

153
00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:38,920
Speaker 1: but turnovers wise, they were pretty much right in the

154
00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:41,280
Speaker 1: right where they were supposed to be. I'm looking at

155
00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:43,360
Speaker 1: the I'm looking at the list of the most exactly

156
00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,760
Speaker 1: like the teams that had exactly the turnover margin they

157
00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:51,240
Speaker 1: were supposed to were basically Troy bad, Wisconsin pretty bad,

158
00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:57,160
Speaker 1: West Virginia not good enough apparently, Oregon State, Western Michigan, Missouri,

159
00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:00,160
Speaker 1: and Alabama were still pretty good. Nevada was still pretty

160
00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,720
Speaker 1: actually thought Nevada was like quite good at the beginning

161
00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:05,720
Speaker 1: of the season, and then they just had no depth whatsoever.

162
00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:09,480
Speaker 1: But anyway, those teams did not really play a role

163
00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:14,760
Speaker 1: in the turnovers department close games department. However, Alabama was

164
00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:16,720
Speaker 1: one of the least lucky teams in the country. And

165
00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:18,640
Speaker 1: that's just such a bummer to say. I like it

166
00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,560
Speaker 1: when it's some random team that you can say was

167
00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:23,000
Speaker 1: unlucky and is going to go on a run. But

168
00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,400
Speaker 1: the two most likely I keep coming around to, you know,

169
00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:28,720
Speaker 1: Alabama and Ole miss being two of the least lucky

170
00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:31,360
Speaker 1: teams last year and that's not a lot of fun, right.

171
00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,559
Speaker 2: It's also interesting because and I don't know how it's

172
00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:38,760
Speaker 2: fully quantified in other sports, but there's like, for instance,

173
00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,800
Speaker 2: in basketball, there is a like a clutch stat like

174
00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,240
Speaker 2: when your team is within this many you're a head

175
00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,320
Speaker 2: by five or fewer, or you're down by five or

176
00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:50,320
Speaker 2: fewer with three or fewer minutes left, whatever. I almost

177
00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:55,120
Speaker 2: wonder if there's a way to have a clutch stat

178
00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:58,040
Speaker 2: that would sort of take the luck out of the

179
00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,480
Speaker 2: equation or maybe sort of push the luck to the

180
00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:02,960
Speaker 2: side a little bit. That like it could almost follow

181
00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,000
Speaker 2: a coach that if you were put putting together like

182
00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:08,160
Speaker 2: third and fourth in shorts, putting together end of half

183
00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:10,880
Speaker 2: drives within a certain number of points, end of game

184
00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:14,120
Speaker 2: drives within four minutes. And you know, one of the

185
00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:15,680
Speaker 2: things we like to joke about on the show was,

186
00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,880
Speaker 2: you know, James Franklin in a close loss, it seemed

187
00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,080
Speaker 2: like they didn't have a four minute offense. We said,

188
00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,120
Speaker 2: every team needs something that they like. Okay, we're calling

189
00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:26,560
Speaker 2: out excelsior, right, Excelsior is our four minute offense. Is

190
00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:31,199
Speaker 2: there any way to group together like high leverage moments

191
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,480
Speaker 2: into a statistic that are like this team is just

192
00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:37,160
Speaker 2: you know, the boy scouts of college football, always prepared.

193
00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:40,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, But Elliott and I have talked about that a

194
00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:42,000
Speaker 1: lot through the years. He kind of has a run

195
00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:45,320
Speaker 1: in theory that you know, there could be some sort

196
00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:50,400
Speaker 1: of close game formula base simply on quarterback, special teams

197
00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,840
Speaker 1: and pure clock management coach stuff like four minute drill

198
00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:56,959
Speaker 1: or whatever. And you know, your special teams personnel and

199
00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:59,280
Speaker 1: your quarterback changed quite a bit. But you know, if

200
00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,800
Speaker 1: we look at you know, there's also a pure talent

201
00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:04,480
Speaker 1: standpoint is the team that's more talented is probably gonna

202
00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,880
Speaker 1: win more close games. Two totally, And so I'm looking.

203
00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:10,079
Speaker 1: I just pulled up the like the last ten years,

204
00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:12,720
Speaker 1: the teams with the best overall record in one score

205
00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:17,920
Speaker 1: games are Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State. Those are the top three.

206
00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:20,480
Speaker 1: Alabama's up there too. Now, Michigan State being up there

207
00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:22,240
Speaker 1: is kind of interesting that we you know, we can

208
00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:26,679
Speaker 1: relive some of d'antonio's best teams there. Oklahoma State's up there.

209
00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:30,240
Speaker 1: They always managed to win a couple of games where

210
00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:33,079
Speaker 1: they just make it as dumb and chaotic as possible,

211
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:34,640
Speaker 1: and then they're the ones that figure out their way

212
00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:38,120
Speaker 1: out of the mess better. But yeah, like that, there

213
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,040
Speaker 1: is certainly a talent aspect to all of this over

214
00:10:41,160 --> 00:10:43,720
Speaker 1: and over a long enough period of time at least,

215
00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,079
Speaker 1: so that makes it maybe even more notable that among

216
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:52,320
Speaker 1: the bottom ten or fifteen or so in the way

217
00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:55,760
Speaker 1: I looked at close games was comparing your record to

218
00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:58,200
Speaker 1: basically what your record should have been based on those

219
00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:00,800
Speaker 1: postgame win expectancy figures that I always post in the

220
00:11:01,880 --> 00:11:05,200
Speaker 1: each Sunday during the season, where you know, it basically says,

221
00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:07,560
Speaker 1: with the stats this game produced, you could have expected

222
00:11:07,640 --> 00:11:09,360
Speaker 1: to win this game like ninety percent of the time,

223
00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:13,880
Speaker 1: that becomes you know, point nine on average. Alabama was

224
00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,080
Speaker 1: their Their second order win total was ten point seven,

225
00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:21,120
Speaker 1: which basically means they statistically won just about every game

226
00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,800
Speaker 1: they played. Only won nine of those games, however, and

227
00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,960
Speaker 1: that was almost a two game difference. That was damn

228
00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:31,080
Speaker 1: nearing close to the bottom in terms of you know,

229
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:32,840
Speaker 1: just the overall college football.

230
00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,120
Speaker 2: Now Auburn, right, there's always this team.

231
00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't justifiably say, you know, believe in Auburn

232
00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,720
Speaker 1: because when you see a team make exactly the single

233
00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:47,199
Speaker 1: play they shouldn't make in every single game they play,

234
00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:50,440
Speaker 1: like you start to believe in coaching playing a role

235
00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:53,920
Speaker 1: here and everything else, and so they have that to overcome.

236
00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:57,680
Speaker 1: But the bottom line is, statistically they produce better success

237
00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,160
Speaker 1: rates than their opponents, and just about every game, they

238
00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:02,360
Speaker 1: produce more big plays than their opponents in just about

239
00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:06,600
Speaker 1: every game. It takes a perfect confluence of turnovers and

240
00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,520
Speaker 1: horrific red zone execution and a lot of things that

241
00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:12,199
Speaker 1: you can fix from one season two another, and might

242
00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,520
Speaker 1: have been bad luck to begin with in the season

243
00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:19,640
Speaker 1: that Auburn like was by far the least fortunate team

244
00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,679
Speaker 1: from a second order wins perspective, and they really should

245
00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:24,000
Speaker 1: have been a lot They should have had a lot

246
00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:26,680
Speaker 1: better record than they did. So if it wasn't just

247
00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:29,040
Speaker 1: all coaching, then here we go, They're gonna They're gonna

248
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:31,080
Speaker 1: turn around. They're gonna have an amazing receiving cord this

249
00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,040
Speaker 1: year if they have a quarterback to throw them the

250
00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:38,360
Speaker 1: ball anyway, if Jackson Arnold isn't just permanently broken. But yeah,

251
00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,880
Speaker 1: I mean, they are a major turnaround candidate. And every

252
00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,360
Speaker 1: time I say that, I remember all those errors they

253
00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,240
Speaker 1: made last year, and it's hard for me to get

254
00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:47,240
Speaker 1: all the way behind that.

255
00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:49,560
Speaker 2: Right when a team is just good enough to be

256
00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,520
Speaker 2: in a game and makes decisions just bad enough to

257
00:12:52,600 --> 00:12:55,280
Speaker 2: take them out of the game in those huge moments.

258
00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:57,080
Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe this is the souplex stat, right, this

259
00:12:57,160 --> 00:12:59,920
Speaker 2: is the backbreaking stat that you're going to figure out.

260
00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:02,840
Speaker 2: And I don't, I don't what goes into I mean,

261
00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:05,520
Speaker 2: you talked about quarterback playing, you talked about special teams.

262
00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:08,880
Speaker 2: I just wonder, like when you have a sample size

263
00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:10,719
Speaker 2: when a coach is coached long enough. And it was

264
00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,400
Speaker 2: interesting you brought up Alabama with this and the one

265
00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:17,240
Speaker 2: score losses that Caylin de Boris specifically came off of

266
00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:19,880
Speaker 2: a season at Washington where he was all the close

267
00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,920
Speaker 2: call it proof late, and so you would think that

268
00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,160
Speaker 2: there was something in his brain that had figured out

269
00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:27,680
Speaker 2: how to manage a team late. But obviously this is

270
00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:31,280
Speaker 2: a completely different roster against completely different opponents with completely

271
00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,959
Speaker 2: different flaws, different strengths, whatever. But I wonder if over

272
00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,640
Speaker 2: time we can get something like that gets us to

273
00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,600
Speaker 2: a point where it's just like this coach is more

274
00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:44,400
Speaker 2: likely to put his team in a position to do

275
00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:47,000
Speaker 2: everything they can to win more so than this other coach.

276
00:13:47,200 --> 00:13:49,360
Speaker 1: And I just pulled up like, I mean, you know,

277
00:13:49,400 --> 00:13:52,000
Speaker 1: we can bag on Hugh Freeze from time to time,

278
00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:55,439
Speaker 1: but I just pulled up his record in one score games.

279
00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,360
Speaker 1: It's twenty one and twenty one, right, So it's not

280
00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:02,160
Speaker 1: like he has a history of being awful in these

281
00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,959
Speaker 1: specific situations like is had Auburn. He's two and six, right,

282
00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,400
Speaker 1: and so. But in theory, there's nothing, there's nothing saying

283
00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:12,000
Speaker 1: that Auburn can't be a massive turnaround team this year.

284
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,080
Speaker 1: It's just like, yeah, when your I see what they

285
00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:16,160
Speaker 1: saw last year, that kind of it's burden of proof

286
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:16,920
Speaker 1: for Auburn here.

287
00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:19,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just have this feeling I'm gonna be labor

288
00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,520
Speaker 2: this point because we've all, as college football fans, watched

289
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:26,480
Speaker 2: our team down four and seen the offense that trots

290
00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:29,160
Speaker 2: out on the field and known before it has begun

291
00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,160
Speaker 2: that drive like there's just no chance, there's absolutely no

292
00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,360
Speaker 2: chance they're making their way with three and a half

293
00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:37,440
Speaker 2: minutes and two timeouts seventy eight yards down to the

294
00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:41,200
Speaker 2: end zone in scoring. And it would comfort me to

295
00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:43,480
Speaker 2: know that there's a number backing up that feeling that

296
00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:44,200
Speaker 2: we've all felt.

297
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:49,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there was last year anyway. I mean, boy, yeah,

298
00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,080
Speaker 1: I just can't I keep wanting to immediately say no,

299
00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:54,760
Speaker 1: But Auburn really does have a good end, right they

300
00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:57,080
Speaker 1: have to prove it. They have to prove it, and

301
00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:58,080
Speaker 1: they very well might.

302
00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:03,400
Speaker 2: Who else was in that Auburn of underperforming and you

303
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,480
Speaker 2: feel good about this year based on either the killer

304
00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,120
Speaker 2: turnovers and change you know, if it's a coach, whether

305
00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,160
Speaker 2: it's a quarterback, a coordinator, or whatever, where you say

306
00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:15,280
Speaker 2: to yourself, there's no way it can happen exactly like this.

307
00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,480
Speaker 2: Once again, the numbers would be infuriated if.

308
00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:22,000
Speaker 1: Well, UCF was second from the bottom, and I having

309
00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:24,360
Speaker 1: watched every time I watched UCF, they had like a

310
00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:26,240
Speaker 1: five or ten minute spanning, really like this is one

311
00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,120
Speaker 1: of the best teams in the country. And then they

312
00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:29,520
Speaker 1: didn't make a good play for another two and a

313
00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:33,240
Speaker 1: half quarters. So that makes a lot of sense and

314
00:15:33,280 --> 00:15:37,240
Speaker 1: funny enough, I mean, this is proof of regressing to

315
00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:39,000
Speaker 1: the men and whatnot. But you talked about Kalin de

316
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,200
Speaker 1: Bors Washington the year before going whatever. They were eight

317
00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:46,440
Speaker 1: and h one score games whatever. That was ridiculous number

318
00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:51,080
Speaker 1: of tight escapes. Well, not only did Alabama underachieve last

319
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:54,800
Speaker 1: year with Debord Bor's former team, Washington under achieved they

320
00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:58,240
Speaker 1: went six and seven with the team that produced should

321
00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,720
Speaker 1: have produced probably eight wins on paper with the way

322
00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:04,000
Speaker 1: those games played out, and I always have to specify

323
00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:05,680
Speaker 1: that too. I'm not talking about like they should have

324
00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:08,680
Speaker 1: won because of talent or anything like that, but actually

325
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,480
Speaker 1: the stats of the games suggest they were. That was

326
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:13,760
Speaker 1: an eight win team that just happened to win six

327
00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,880
Speaker 1: games instead, So maybe that means good things for them. Obviously,

328
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:19,520
Speaker 1: they had two new coordinators and a bunch of new starters,

329
00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:23,200
Speaker 1: so we'll see. But they certainly all the breaks of

330
00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,720
Speaker 1: Washington got the year before. Neither Washington nor de Bord

331
00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:31,000
Speaker 1: got those breaks last year. On the flip side, Arkansas

332
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:36,440
Speaker 1: State was hilariously that was a four. They played thirteen games.

333
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,560
Speaker 1: The second order win total was four point zero, but

334
00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:42,000
Speaker 1: they they went eight and five. I don't know how

335
00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 1: I watched some of those, the endings of some of

336
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:47,040
Speaker 1: those games that I'm pretty good at, you know, having

337
00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 1: ESPN plus at the ready for when a sunbucking gets

338
00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,520
Speaker 1: two minutes left, It didn't make any sense that they

339
00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:57,120
Speaker 1: won those games, and the stats certainly back that up. Now,

340
00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:59,960
Speaker 1: Ioways stayed in Texas Tech, where the next two team

341
00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 1: on that list Iowa State was another one that was

342
00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:05,160
Speaker 1: on the wrong side of close games for a while

343
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,959
Speaker 1: and then that all flipped last year. Texas Tuck's an

344
00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:10,840
Speaker 1: interesting one because they still felt pretty disappointing even while

345
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:12,720
Speaker 1: going six and one in one scored game.

346
00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 2: I was going to say the Iowa State Texas Tech

347
00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,600
Speaker 2: game specifically, you watch that and even knowing the result,

348
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,120
Speaker 2: you're like, there is no possible way Texas Tech can

349
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:23,320
Speaker 2: win this game. Let's move on, And yet yeah, they do.

350
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,639
Speaker 1: And so that is a really really interesting scenario this

351
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,040
Speaker 1: year with Texas Tech signing an amazing transfer class, having

352
00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,119
Speaker 1: lots of experience, having a lot going for them, and

353
00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:35,639
Speaker 1: they're remembering that even at eight and five, they weren't

354
00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:37,479
Speaker 1: as good as an eight and five team is supposed

355
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 1: to be. That was a team that finished what in

356
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:42,560
Speaker 1: the forties or fifties and sp plus. So they have

357
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:45,479
Speaker 1: a lot of ground to make up because we know,

358
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:46,680
Speaker 1: we don't know who's going to be good in the

359
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:47,879
Speaker 1: Big twelve, but we know there are going to be

360
00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:51,960
Speaker 1: a lot of top fifteen to thirty teams, and you

361
00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 1: know they're going to be a ton of close games,

362
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,760
Speaker 1: and we'll see if Texas Tech can win those close

363
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:59,959
Speaker 1: games again and actually be better overall too. It'll be interesting.

364
00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:01,800
Speaker 2: So who are the teams last year? I know one

365
00:18:01,840 --> 00:18:04,440
Speaker 2: of them was Oregon, just as for my own personal interests,

366
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:08,840
Speaker 2: who weren't especially lucky in terms of turnovers, but were

367
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:13,000
Speaker 2: successful and their fans should feel good that they weren't

368
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,359
Speaker 2: reliant on weird. You know a lot anomalists is that

369
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:20,160
Speaker 2: a word? Anomalist? Numbers with turnovers, but yet still performed

370
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,480
Speaker 2: and what we saw in the field was somewhat representative

371
00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:25,879
Speaker 2: of what the universe had in store.

372
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:31,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Ohio State was fourteen and two and underachieved.

373
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,359
Speaker 1: They had fourteen point eight second order wins. That was safe.

374
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:36,719
Speaker 1: It's safe to assume that Ohio State might have been

375
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 1: pretty good last year. Penn S date was another one.

376
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,320
Speaker 1: They were thirteen and three. Their second order win total

377
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,920
Speaker 1: was thirteen and a half. Basically that that Notre Dame

378
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,879
Speaker 1: game flipped the other way. Therefore they they ended up

379
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:52,760
Speaker 1: slightly under which I still feel bad for Drew aller Man.

380
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,159
Speaker 1: That was Yeah, he walked out onto that field at

381
00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:56,679
Speaker 1: that end, it was like, it's time for me to

382
00:18:56,800 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 1: win this game. The worst pass he threw all season,

383
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:04,880
Speaker 1: but Anyway, let's see who else we got here. Yeah,

384
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:08,920
Speaker 1: sim you there are eleven wins were like very close

385
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,159
Speaker 1: to what they should have been. Texas was really close

386
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 1: Indiana even with the turnovers. Look, they still you know,

387
00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 1: obviously they didn't play many great teams or any many

388
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,280
Speaker 1: close games, but they still they backed up the stats.

389
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:23,879
Speaker 2: They performed as as if they should have right against

390
00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 2: the opponents they played.

391
00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, so that was that was good. The ones

392
00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:30,639
Speaker 1: that overachieved I mentioned Iowa stay and Missouri is eleven

393
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:32,920
Speaker 1: and one and one score games over the last two years.

394
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,439
Speaker 1: I feel maybe I can will that to continue, but

395
00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:40,359
Speaker 1: probably not. If BOPA brule isn't anything other than an

396
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:44,000
Speaker 1: outstanding fourth quarter quarterback, that number is going to come down.

397
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,439
Speaker 1: They could be a really solid team this year, but

398
00:19:46,520 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 1: just finally lose close games again and see their win

399
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 1: total fall a little bit. Let's see Michigan going eight

400
00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 1: and five. That was a six win team on paper.

401
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:56,400
Speaker 2: Interesting.

402
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,359
Speaker 1: Okay, that's that's another one where like Texas Tech, we

403
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 1: think they're gonna surge forward, but they're surging forward from

404
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 1: a spot that's maybe a little lower than we expected.

405
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:06,480
Speaker 1: So that'll be an interesting one, right, So I.

406
00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 2: Guess you look at games like the USC game, maybe

407
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,280
Speaker 2: the Minnesota game, the against Alababama.

408
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was I don't remember. It was like twenty

409
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,880
Speaker 1: thirty twenty percent. I think postgame winning. Right.

410
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,400
Speaker 2: The offense didn't do much, but in terms of turnovers

411
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:23,159
Speaker 2: and field position with those turnovers, it was great fortune.

412
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,440
Speaker 2: And look be you know, if you're not good, be lucky.

413
00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:29,400
Speaker 2: And that's okay, right. The one area of this all

414
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 2: that I was super interested in, and I don't know how.

415
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:34,600
Speaker 2: I'm sure this is the sort of shakiest ground you

416
00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 2: were on in terms of quantifying injury luck injury luck

417
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:42,119
Speaker 2: where you said, Okay, I'm not sure exactly how to

418
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 2: go about this, But what I did was, and I'm

419
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 2: using your brain even though I was not there that

420
00:20:48,040 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 2: you said, Okay, I'm going to look at the number

421
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 2: of starts that the starters who played as much as

422
00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:59,320
Speaker 2: humanly possible made and the spot starters, and see, you

423
00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 2: know how many games there starting and going with who

424
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 2: played against teams that had the fewest consistent starters something

425
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 2: like that. Explain your process for figuring out injury luck.

426
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, we were calling we were calling it injuries because

427
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:18,120
Speaker 1: that's a great name. It's really lineup stability, if we're

428
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 1: being honest. Yeah. I started off by just basically going

429
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 1: team by team and counting up, like, how many teams

430
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 1: started four different guys at quarterback? That was like UCF

431
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,679
Speaker 1: and Utah I believe were the only two. Maybe there

432
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 1: was a third. And I was going, you know, how

433
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: many started at least ten different guys on offensive line?

434
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,480
Speaker 1: And I was kind of coming at it from that perspective.

435
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 1: Then I realized I had starts data now, So I

436
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:42,639
Speaker 1: basically just pulled everybody who started the game and counted

437
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 1: up the number the number of players each team had

438
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 1: who started either all or all but one game on

439
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:51,199
Speaker 1: one side, and then the number of players that a

440
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,919
Speaker 1: team had that started either one or two games. So

441
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 1: that was that tells you pretty like how stable were

442
00:21:56,760 --> 00:22:00,440
Speaker 1: the lineups in general? Obviously I could have just used

443
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:04,119
Speaker 1: a plain old like average number of total starters or

444
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:06,040
Speaker 1: something like that, but I thought this was a I

445
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 1: just created a ratio from that and that so that

446
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:10,359
Speaker 1: and it created interesting things. As I was playing with this,

447
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 1: I found you know, we'll see, like multiple years, we'll

448
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 1: see what this kind of does. But you know, the

449
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 1: teams that had the best ratio of guys who started

450
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 1: almost every game versus guys who started almost none. Penn

451
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:24,479
Speaker 1: State was at the top of the list. They had

452
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 1: sixteen guys who started all but zero one games. That

453
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,520
Speaker 1: was top ten, and they had only four guys who

454
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 1: started only one or two, which was a second type

455
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 1: for second best. So I just used a ratio that

456
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 1: was a four point zero ratio four to one, and

457
00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 1: they led the way. Indiana was second, which does kind

458
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 1: of even with their Obviously they had quarterback injury issues

459
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 1: that we only sort of knew about and he kept playing.

460
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,560
Speaker 2: But right, so, right, you're you're dealing with an injured starter,

461
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 2: which is there's no number you can associate that he's playing.

462
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 2: But also I forget what exactly came out. It turned

463
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 2: out he had a torn a cl which we didn't

464
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,199
Speaker 2: know about, and also was dealing with some sort of

465
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 2: I think it was a thumb injury, a broken or

466
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:05,640
Speaker 2: thumb ligament or something.

467
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so I mean, yeah, good for him, good

468
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 1: for work. He was amazing. But he kept playing, and

469
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,360
Speaker 1: that's all we're ever gonna know. But yeah, so they

470
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 1: were up there, Rutgers was up there. Texas was up

471
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 1: there too, which you think about it again, like, obviously

472
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 1: they had a quarterback injury issue. It's had a weird

473
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,439
Speaker 1: quarterback situation all the way around, but the rest of

474
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 1: the lineup was remarkably stable for them, and that's not

475
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:31,159
Speaker 1: something you can necessarily count on from year to you. Now,

476
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 1: you know, some teams took great advantage of this. Oregon

477
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 1: was tied for seventh with this ratio, Tennessee was up

478
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:40,680
Speaker 1: there as well. Sam Houston State was was very high

479
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 1: in this regard, which they were kind of lucky in

480
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 1: all three of these categories, which good luck to you.

481
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:49,359
Speaker 1: Fill Longo. You're about to you know, you're inheriting a

482
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 1: roster that got hit pretty hard by attrition and also

483
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 1: was maybe the luckiest in the country last year. So

484
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:57,959
Speaker 1: have fun. But the funniest team on this list that

485
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 1: by far, was do who had some of the best

486
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 1: lineup stability in the country while maybe playing like the

487
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 1: worst Power Conference team of the last ten years. That's

488
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,879
Speaker 1: a really can't blame can't blame injuries for how terrible

489
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 1: they were last year.

490
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 2: Right It's it's almost as if like you have ground

491
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 2: to fire, grounds to fire your second year coach.

492
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 1: I was about to say, I don't like fire and

493
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 1: second year guys, I feel like Ryan Walters had not

494
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 1: figured things out there is probably good to make that move.

495
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 2: So did you judge excuse me if I forget, did

496
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 2: you judge who had the luckiest schedules the luckiest runs?

497
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 2: Or was that even more difficult because you're just again,

498
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 2: the starter could be hurt and playing the starter could

499
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,120
Speaker 2: be you could change somewhere between this, you know, six

500
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 2: games in, five games in, and so it's just like,

501
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 2: you know, it's not dealing with lineup stability. If you

502
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,440
Speaker 2: know this right tackle isn't working out five or six

503
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 2: games in. Is there any way to judge who has

504
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 2: the luckiest or unluckiest path based on you know, opponent

505
00:24:57,760 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 2: lineup stability.

506
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 1: We'll say that's well, that's we'll say it's next year.

507
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 1: I got to say something for next year to upgrade

508
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 1: this in the future. Now that that is a pretty

509
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 1: interesting thought because you can always think of a team

510
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 1: that did get like, played three straight games against backup quarterback. Yeah,

511
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 1: so maybe I'm sure there's a way to quantify that

512
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 1: moving forward. Haven't done it yet?

513
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:17,880
Speaker 2: Well, what else do you have going on in your

514
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 2: life that you can't just extrapolate every thing with opponent

515
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 2: adjust to metrics. Ye, I'm lazy, unbelievable. Okay, So in

516
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 2: terms of luck moving forward, you you've talked about some

517
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 2: of the teams who and you opened with Clemson and

518
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 2: I kind of want to talk about them briefly. That

519
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 2: they had almost extraordinarily turnover luck but one games, so

520
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,360
Speaker 2: they weren't just a games with lacket second right, they're

521
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 2: winning close games. They hung on in the a SEC

522
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 2: championship game. They buy every single metric and by every

523
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 2: single eyeball test, improved various facets of their game last season.

524
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,880
Speaker 2: What was it about Clemson this past year that has

525
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,400
Speaker 2: intrigued about what they might be in twenty twenty five.

526
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: Yeah. The first comment I received that I got when

527
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:07,119
Speaker 1: when this went up was, man, you are lower than

528
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 1: anybody on Clemson this year. And it's kind of funny.

529
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 1: I'm not low on then, I'm just not buying top

530
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: five potential yet. Part of that is because yeah, they

531
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,399
Speaker 1: had extreme turnovers luck. You know, just to get back

532
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 1: to the SEU game itself, you know it starts with

533
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 1: not only a big sack thick on third down, but

534
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: then you know it's a perfect sacking strip and the

535
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 1: same guy recovers it and sets up the first touchdown.

536
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 1: This little things like that added up. They did that

537
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: a lot last season, and that's really hard to replicate,

538
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:41,919
Speaker 1: even if you're you know, little old Clemson. But I

539
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: you know, I just I'm they're fascinating to me number

540
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:46,399
Speaker 1: one because of that. Maybe they were a little bit

541
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 1: fortunate last season, but then also we just got this tiny,

542
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: little glimpse of an actual Clemson offense that makes big plays.

543
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 1: And that's what everybody who's talking about them as a

544
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: top five team this year is remembering TJ. Moore catching

545
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: balls down the side line against a really good Texas

546
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 1: secondary Brian westco when he was healthy, he had a

547
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: lot of really nice moments. Those are both those are

548
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,679
Speaker 1: both freshmen who produced great numbers for freshmen, and they

549
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:14,719
Speaker 1: should get better. Antonio Williams is back, so, like you

550
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 1: can see from a personnel standpoint, they're number one in

551
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 1: returning production, but they were number one in turnover's luck.

552
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 1: They're they're really good at they're really efficient overall. But

553
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 1: also that Texas game was like the only time in

554
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 1: the last five years that they've made big plays. It's

555
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 1: been a very very efficiency heavy and big play light offense,

556
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 1: and that's not you don't win national titles without big plays.

557
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:41,639
Speaker 1: So it's just really interesting. Like I think I'm going

558
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 1: to have them probably ten eleven, twelve, something like that

559
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 1: and ask people to start the year. And I can

560
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 1: absolutely justify that. But I you know, we're going to

561
00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 1: find out once and for all if if Clemson in

562
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: this era can put together a national title roster, because

563
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: if this isn't dead, I don't think it's going to

564
00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:00,840
Speaker 1: happen a lot to really and then a lot of

565
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,920
Speaker 1: things that can really make you hesitate, and Clemson is

566
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 1: one of the few teams that returning production and roster

567
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 1: stability actually gives you a better idea. Like you can

568
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:14,439
Speaker 1: criticize Apple all you want for not taking advantage of

569
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: the portal, but for somebody like you who stability is

570
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: sort of the name of the game as you try

571
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: to project things out, it's pretty great that Clemson is

572
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 1: bringing back a roster and not populating their roster with

573
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: transfers in the way that other programs are. I like,

574
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 1: so I love that he got a CIMO receiver, an

575
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 1: FCS receiver in Clemson style. He's not a big play guy,

576
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 1: but he's a cosssion guy. So I like a lot

577
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: of what I see here. The experience levels are good,

578
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 1: and like you said, I mean I've had a problem

579
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:49,560
Speaker 1: for a few years now. Or what I call returning

580
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: production is actually a combination of returning and incoming production.

581
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: You know, it's counting transfers production from other schools, and

582
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 1: that's not really the case with Clemson. Clemson's returning production

583
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: is returning production, and that should make them really good.

584
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: I just don't know if I believe that they're top

585
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 1: five good.

586
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 2: Do you discount incoming production in some way because it's

587
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 2: a new system, it's a new place, or do you

588
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 2: just have to take it on its face.

589
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 1: I so far, you know, just playing using it as

590
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 1: production works pretty well. In the projections. I still have

591
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 1: grand designs hopefully by August of like taking the last

592
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: couple of years and splinting them out and seeing, you know,

593
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 1: like should I be discounting, should I count this as more,

594
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: this is less? Or whatever? But the projections are still

595
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 1: pretty good doing it this way, so I keep doing it.

596
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: So any adjustment I'm making that regard will probably help

597
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: Clemson even more. But they're still going to probably end

598
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 1: up in that kind of eight to twelve neighborhood.

599
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 2: Has anything swayed shifted at all in terms of the

600
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 2: predictive nature of your big factors, your whether it's turnovers,

601
00:29:56,360 --> 00:30:00,959
Speaker 2: whether it's generating and stopping explosive plays. Have the numbers

602
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 2: swung at all in a more chaotic sport, or have

603
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 2: things sort of held relatively firm.

604
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 1: I think the preseason projections are still pretty accurate, but

605
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 1: they're more volatile. Like the misses when you miss a

606
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 1: team are going to be pretty big, and therefore it's

607
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 1: going to take longer for it to get that team

608
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 1: right over the course of the season. But once the season,

609
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 1: once the ball is rolling in the season, the game

610
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 1: itself doesn't seem to have changed all that much. It's

611
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 1: you know, that success rate measure that I always talk

612
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 1: about is still the most reliable thing, which is fun

613
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: because it's also not how you win games. You win

614
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 1: games with big plays and turnovers, except those are extremely

615
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 1: unreliable under all circumstances pretty much, right, and so it

616
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 1: makes it a fun game to analyze. I guess, but no,

617
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 1: I mean, that's still the SP plus formula. During the

618
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 1: season hasn't really changed that much. It's just how you

619
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 1: handle how you handle the off season that it becomes

620
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 1: a little trickier. Even if I still do I think

621
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 1: a pretty good job.

622
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 2: I want to transition quickly. You have a book that is,

623
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 2: I believe, almost at print, almost at press. What is

624
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 2: the book? What is it about? Please? And we'll have

625
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 2: you back on during its release. But talk about he said,

626
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 2: as a professional journalist, talk about about tack about coming

627
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 2: at you? Bill Coley, ESPN, Calmo, What what is the U?

628
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 2: What's the book? And what's the inspiration?

629
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 1: H It's called four progress? How to get a football

630
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 1: term in there. It's basically how do we get here?

631
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:26,479
Speaker 1: Where are we going with college football? I think they

632
00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 1: when it's like for progress, the Definitive Guide to the

633
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 1: Future of College Football, because that's you know, that's that

634
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:35,920
Speaker 1: sounds like a good title.

635
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 2: I guess that's right to me, But no.

636
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 1: It's you know, I I've been sitting with this thing

637
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 1: for about a year and a half now the day

638
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 1: the d date is like a week and a half away. So,

639
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 1: by the way, note to uh soliverbal listener, Donald Trump,

640
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 1: anything you're planning on doing with executive orders like do

641
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 1: it today.

642
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 2: With regard to n I L And Nick Saban.

643
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, not six or either today or six month

644
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: from now. That's been my biggest concern with this book

645
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 1: for a very long time has been it's going to

646
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 1: be outdated the moment you read it, because thirty eight

647
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 1: things is going to happen over the summer. So seeing

648
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 1: that headline on Friday do not make me incredibly happy,

649
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: since already we're going to go to print without the

650
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 1: house settlement being completely settled thanks to foot dragging in

651
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 1: that regard. But regardless, Yeah, it's I really that part

652
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 1: aside the player payment chapter aside, which is going to

653
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 1: be outdated when you read it. I like the way

654
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 1: it came about a basic I just basically set separated

655
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 1: things into ten essays more or less. One on the

656
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 1: history of realignment, one on the history of arguing about

657
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 1: a playoff, one on the history of arguing about paying players,

658
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 1: all these things, and it was really kind of useful

659
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 1: for me because so many things were changing all at

660
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 1: once that I didn't really I didn't feel like I

661
00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 1: had a vision for where things should go anymore because

662
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 1: things were changing too much. Like one of the things

663
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 1: I'm mentioned in the why doesn't Football have a commissioner? Chapter?

664
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 1: Was that, you know, back in our spionation days, I

665
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 1: did a big run in for commissioner thing and I

666
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 1: think twenty seventeen and I had a platform like I

667
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 1: had these are the nine things I would change about

668
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 1: college football, and I realized after a while I didn't

669
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 1: really have that anymore. You're just reacting to everything that's

670
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 1: changing as it goes. And so yeah, being able to

671
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: step back and chew on what each one of these

672
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 1: topics kind of individually, I think was a healthy exercise

673
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 1: for me. Hopefully it's fun to read.

674
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 2: Is there? Because everybody loves somebody to blame, right everybody.

675
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 2: It's a way to avoid accountability for yourself or for

676
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 2: anybody that you like in your research. I'm not saying

677
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 2: who is the one person to blame for Jim Jim Delaney,

678
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 2: Really he.

679
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 1: Checks a lot of boxes.

680
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 2: Okay, so go ahead, go ahead, not blame. But if

681
00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 2: you were to say who is most responsible as the

682
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 2: architect for you know, I don't know what year you

683
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,520
Speaker 2: can point to us when things really really changed. It

684
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 2: was twenty ten, two thousand and nine, when you have

685
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 2: Texas A and M and Miszoo eventually, and you know,

686
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 2: all sorts of movement in the Sport and Longhorn network.

687
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 2: There's all sorts of things you can argue kick started

688
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 2: the modern era. Is there a single person who you

689
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: can point to as the closest thing to an architect

690
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 2: of what everybody arguing underneath your tweets or skeets or whatever.

691
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:28,879
Speaker 2: Is there that person? Jim Delaney? I guess the two

692
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 2: that come to mind.

693
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 1: I'm blanking on the guy's name, but the NCAA lawyer

694
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 1: who refused to settle the NCAA versus Board of Regents

695
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:40,439
Speaker 1: of Oklahoma and Georgia in the eighties, the Supreme Court,

696
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: the Supreme Court decision that ended up telling the incuablea

697
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 1: you can't control the TV contract anymore. The guy Andy

698
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:51,719
Speaker 1: Coates was the name of the lawyer who argued for

699
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 1: Oklahoma and Georgia. He ended up being Oklahoma City mayor,

700
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 1: he said at the time, and he said like last

701
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 1: year to NBC News, like I'm going I'm ruining college

702
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:03,439
Speaker 1: foot by winning this case. And he begged the INCI

703
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 1: DOUBLEA to settle because he's like, I don't like a

704
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: lot of the places this might go if we win,

705
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 1: and there's nobody in charge of anything but the incidentbule

706
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 1: A doesn't settle. They've settled like twice ever. One of

707
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 1: them was the House settlement recently, and that set the

708
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,680
Speaker 1: ball in motion to where super conferences became a thing

709
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 1: and all everything that followed that case. You know, people

710
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:31,879
Speaker 1: have heard of that case. Probably it's pretty well known,

711
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 1: but it really was as important as people say it is.

712
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,359
Speaker 1: And so that was really the moment where things got

713
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: rolling in a certain direction. And yeah, the guy who

714
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 1: started the nineteen ninety round of realignment, the guy who

715
00:35:44,080 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 1: started the gold rush and arms race with television networks

716
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 1: Conference television networks, and the guy who started the twenty

717
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 1: ten to eleven round of realignment was Jim Delaney, commissioner

718
00:35:55,520 --> 00:36:00,839
Speaker 1: of the Big Ten, who that was. Those were humongous

719
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 1: moves that the Big Ten made and all of those circumstances.

720
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 1: And it's not to say nothing would have happened without

721
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,120
Speaker 1: those things, but they were the first ones to do it,

722
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 1: for better or worse, and it changed college football considerably.

723
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 2: Do you consider Okay, so I saw Andy Coates, he

724
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 2: even gave an interview, and to say what you said, right,

725
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:22,680
Speaker 2: it's that he feels like he messed up college football

726
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 2: and wanted to settle and wasn't able to with the

727
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,080
Speaker 2: NCAA with regards to TV contracts and the rights of

728
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 2: schools to negotiate and conferences to negotiate. What does Jim

729
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:37,319
Speaker 2: Delaney has just been so staunchly, you know, Big ten

730
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 2: over college football, the health of college football. And you

731
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 2: trace that back to nineteen thy it was Penn State, Yes,

732
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:44,280
Speaker 2: Penn State joining the conference.

733
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, December, December eighty nine is when they invited Penn State.

734
00:36:47,320 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 2: That he says, I specifically work for these you know,

735
00:36:49,719 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 2: Big Ten presidents and chancellors, and then with the opportunity

736
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 2: to expand with I guess it was what Nebraska in

737
00:36:55,320 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 2: twenty ten and then eventually Rutgers in Maryland before you know,

738
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:05,239
Speaker 2: USC and UCLA with us later on. He didn't look

739
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 2: at part of his job as having to look at

740
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 2: college football as a whole, because it's very difficult. As

741
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 2: you just sort of said, there is no college football

742
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 2: as a whole. And so he's like, I don't know

743
00:37:18,680 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 2: who I'm reporting to as Big Ten commissioner because I'm

744
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 2: the Big Ten commissioner and there's no college football commissioner.

745
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 2: So I just have to in perpetuity look out for

746
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 2: the people I work for. And that's the Big Ten,

747
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:32,280
Speaker 2: the people who run Big ten schools.

748
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's so funny. I mean Jim Delany, Greg

749
00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 1: sank Bb from the Big twelve, they were all smaller

750
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 1: conference commissioners first, right, he got into these big They know, however,

751
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 1: the other half lives. They know how everybody lives. But

752
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 1: their job is to report to their school presidents and

753
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 1: make those school presidents happy. And those school presidents I

754
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 1: did enjoy. I talked to Matt Brown, our friend Mac

755
00:37:55,560 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 1: Brown for former espionation Extra Points Now, and he had

756
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: one of the better quotes about how like so many

757
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 1: university presidents think they really know college sports, that really

758
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 1: want to be involved in college sports, front door of

759
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 1: the university and all that stuff, and they screw up

760
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 1: college sports constantly. Part of it is by not really

761
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 1: knowing what they're doing. In part of it is because

762
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 1: they're pressure and their commissioners to get what's best for

763
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 1: them at all times. Nobody and there's no position above

764
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: Greg Zenk and the other commissioners who can basically say like, no,

765
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:32,719
Speaker 1: don't do that. The sport as a whole will be

766
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 1: worse off if you do that, So don't and you

767
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 1: can't do that. There's nobody to do that. So everybody's

768
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:39,920
Speaker 1: just looking out for their themselves. And therefore whoever's in

769
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 1: charge of college football is whoever is in charge of

770
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 1: the most powerful conference.

771
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 2: So have there ever been attempts to legitimately figure out

772
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,839
Speaker 2: a person an organization the NCAA rules on, you know,

773
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 2: it's it's governance is basically eligibility essentially, and has been

774
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 2: for a long time now. And you know, the competitive

775
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 2: nature of games, you get one foot in, two foot

776
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 2: in whatever two feet in. Has there been an attempt

777
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 2: at all for commissioners saying we need some sort of

778
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 2: guidance above us for the good of the sport or

779
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 2: they just have had no interest? Ever?

780
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 1: No, I think, you know, the eighties were a giant

781
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: what if in this regard, not only because of the

782
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,760
Speaker 1: Supreme Court case, Like, if the NCAA settles, you probably

783
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:25,839
Speaker 1: get far expanded TV offering, but the NCAA is still

784
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:28,280
Speaker 1: sort of in control of it. Maybe there are further

785
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,400
Speaker 1: cases and everything happens the same anyway, But there was

786
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 1: a chance because of that, and there was a chance

787
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,840
Speaker 1: because of the College Football Association that came about in

788
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:42,879
Speaker 1: the late seventies, basically as like a power conference, you know, microphone,

789
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:47,040
Speaker 1: you know, just as a way of them expressing their

790
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 1: own preferences and whatnot. They negotiated a television contract in

791
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 1: the in their early eighties as a secondary thing to

792
00:39:54,320 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 1: the n C Doablea's contract. It was part of the

793
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:58,919
Speaker 1: reason why you ended up with a Supreme Court case

794
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 1: in the first place. And once the once border regions

795
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:07,240
Speaker 1: happened and everything was decentralized, they controlled all of the TV,

796
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 1: a giant TV contract for everybody outside of the Big

797
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 1: ten and Pac ten. Big ten and Pac ten and

798
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,400
Speaker 1: Rose Bold never played by the same rules, and therefore

799
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 1: it was doomed from the start. But they tried. If

800
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 1: the Big ten and Pac ten had come aboard. If

801
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 1: in the late eighties when there were all these budget

802
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:28,399
Speaker 1: problems because of Board of Regents and because suddenly there

803
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 1: were all these TV contracts that weren't paying nearly as

804
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 1: much money because everybody had a greater selection of games,

805
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 1: there was a moment there where you could have potentially

806
00:40:37,200 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 1: brought the Big ten and Pac ten into the fold.

807
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:43,399
Speaker 1: Had a giant overriding contract where everybody gets money based

808
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:47,240
Speaker 1: on appearances and whatnot, and maybe things were kind of stable,

809
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 1: but nobody thought that that giant contract would pass anti

810
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 1: trust tests right basically, and there was uncertainty from the

811
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 1: government in that regard. And then eventually some conferences just

812
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 1: said screw it. The SEC obviously expanded to twelve teams

813
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 1: big ten out of Penn State. Everybody started breaking off

814
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,760
Speaker 1: into what they thought were going to be. It sounded

815
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 1: like they thought it was going to be like a

816
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 1: one conference per network kind of deal, and therefore you

817
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,320
Speaker 1: need the biggest conference with the big the most brands

818
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 1: and everything at Texas and A and M and Arkansas

819
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 1: all almost joined the SEC for a minute there and

820
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 1: then didn't. But yeah, that was when so much of

821
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 1: the shift of tectonic plates happened. And it feels like

822
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 1: a few of those things really could have gone in

823
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:35,319
Speaker 1: a number of different directions that we just got the

824
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 1: direction we got.

825
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:39,839
Speaker 2: Do you think it's too late? Are we too far

826
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:45,239
Speaker 2: gone to organize that the conferences could figure out a

827
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:48,280
Speaker 2: way to organize together. Are we too far gone where

828
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 2: the sense of college football community is completely lost? Right

829
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 2: on the annual position and positioning and jockeying for every

830
00:41:57,400 --> 00:42:00,399
Speaker 2: you know, squeezing every last drop of TV blow out

831
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:01,800
Speaker 2: of every rock. I think.

832
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 1: It's hard to imagine us getting to this is a

833
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:07,320
Speaker 1: weird thing to say. It's hard to imagine us getting

834
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:09,879
Speaker 1: to a better place in that regard without some sort

835
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 1: of crisis and some sort of situation where Greg Sanki

836
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:18,239
Speaker 1: and Tony Pettiti feel they actually need to look out

837
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 1: for the good of Iowa State. I use Io State

838
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 1: as an example in the book for whatever reason. I

839
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:25,680
Speaker 1: don't really know how that came about, but it ended

840
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:27,800
Speaker 1: up being a very good example of you know, Iowa

841
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 1: State averages average fifty seven thousand in home attendants last year.

842
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 1: They've been right up there for over for a decade now.

843
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: They have two top fifteen finishes. Ever, they don't threaten

844
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 1: the overall leadership in terms of they're not threatening to

845
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,439
Speaker 1: win the titles that the blue bloods get to win,

846
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 1: but they get to be part of the bigger, the

847
00:42:47,640 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 1: power conference structure, And it feels like, you know, the

848
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 1: biggest thing we can do to hurt college football is

849
00:42:53,400 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 1: to take those teams, the Iowa States and the Kansas

850
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 1: States and the NC States and the teams that draw

851
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 1: even though they don't really have a reason too in

852
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 1: terms of titles, and basically tell them, no, hey, you,

853
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 1: you officially do not matter in this equation. And it

854
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 1: does feel like every single time we try to drain

855
00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:14,959
Speaker 1: more just blood from the rock or whatever the saying

856
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 1: is like, it feels like we start inching towards a

857
00:43:19,239 --> 00:43:21,680
Speaker 1: not a super league in terms of anything real, but

858
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:24,799
Speaker 1: just kind of this is the super League of We're

859
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,800
Speaker 1: just going to slowly distance ourselves in the SEC and

860
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:30,160
Speaker 1: Big ten from everybody else. And I don't see how

861
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: that helps the sport. So it's not going to change

862
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 1: unless Petit and Sanki have a reason to look out

863
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 1: for everybody else. I liked. One of my favorite chapters

864
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,319
Speaker 1: is probably the least focused chapter in the book. It's

865
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 1: about you know, soccer fans shot down a super league

866
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 1: and how you know fans have a certain amount of

867
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:52,400
Speaker 1: power and all the different ways this to go. And

868
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 1: I got to roll with Jason Kirk, another former Spion

869
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 1: or if you catch a theme here, yeah, and he's like,

870
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 1: you know, they just we need to convince Greg Sanking

871
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:03,760
Speaker 1: Dott he should become doctor Doom. Was the main Basically,

872
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 1: I am the greatest being on this planet. It helps

873
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 1: the planet if I take control of everything. And basically,

874
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:12,479
Speaker 1: the SEC expands to about one hundred and forty teams

875
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 1: and the Big Ten expands to about one hundred and

876
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 1: forty teams, right, and we had promotion and relegation and

877
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:20,399
Speaker 1: live happily ever after. I doubt that's probably the most

878
00:44:20,440 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 1: realistic scenario.

879
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:24,440
Speaker 2: Soccer fans would also point out that promotion and relegation,

880
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 2: at least relegation is absolutely catastrophic for those teams, for

881
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 2: those towns, for those programs, for those stadiums.

882
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 1: It's it's really what's going up, and it's terrible for

883
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 1: the ones going down.

884
00:44:36,360 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 2: Right Exactly, you also have to talk about I mean,

885
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 2: you talk about doctor Doom. My theory has always been that,

886
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 2: like you'll play Kate, Tony Pettiti or whoever's in charge

887
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:45,840
Speaker 2: of the Big Ten. They're like, you get to add

888
00:44:46,080 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 2: a Pacific division to your conference and you get to

889
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 2: rule it. And maybe we'll call it the Pacific A,

890
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:54,239
Speaker 2: we'll call it the Pacific Ten. Whatever you want to

891
00:44:54,280 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 2: call it is fine, and we get this sort of

892
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 2: like reconstruction of a conference that I think a lot

893
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 2: of people love as far as I can tell, but

894
00:45:02,320 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 2: just in a different context. And maybe that's a way forward,

895
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:08,439
Speaker 2: but I guess it's a long winded way of also

896
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:13,040
Speaker 2: asking who what type of person would have the uncompromised

897
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 2: stomach to be that villainous, to be able to withstand,

898
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:22,280
Speaker 2: you know, the the arrows of you know, the powerful

899
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 2: lobbies of the Big ten and sec and make unpopular

900
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:30,239
Speaker 2: decisions because they feel it's, you know, truly within the

901
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 2: best interest of the capital s sport. And does that

902
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 2: person like you could say, like, oh, Nick Saban, you know,

903
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 2: in all his you know, sage wisdom over the years,

904
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 2: and like Nick Saban's looking out for coaches to make

905
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:46,520
Speaker 2: the lives of coaches smoother and easier. And I think

906
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:50,319
Speaker 2: he has players in mind too, but he's not necessarily

907
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 2: out for the good of the sport. He is a

908
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:55,879
Speaker 2: compromised person as we all are. But like, what type

909
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:57,560
Speaker 2: of person is that and do they exist?

910
00:45:57,760 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean it would almost have to be a

911
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 1: Saban like figure that just comes to the table with

912
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:05,480
Speaker 1: all the I made fun of the word gravitas in

913
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 1: the book because that was when we were talking when

914
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:11,279
Speaker 1: the first college football Playoff Committee came about. It had

915
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:15,319
Speaker 1: Condoleeza Rice and Tom Osborne and Barry Alvarez, and they

916
00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 1: basically try to create this committee of people that were

917
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,839
Speaker 1: unquestionable in there, of course, and and the very first

918
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 1: year everybody questioned them greatly. So I don't think that

919
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 1: person exists. And you're right, it's you have to be

920
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 1: able to get away with changing a lot without losing

921
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:36,200
Speaker 1: political capital, without losing all the people. And you think

922
00:46:36,200 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 1: about like even Greg Zenke, you know, working out for

923
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 1: the what's best for the sport, Well, that means he's

924
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 1: not working out what's best for like the Mississippi state

925
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 1: president or the Kentucky president or whatever, and those are

926
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 1: the people he answers to. And I don't know, like

927
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:52,640
Speaker 1: I think you know, the we've talked before about maybe

928
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:55,359
Speaker 1: the College Football Playoff itself can become kind of this

929
00:46:56,000 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 1: organization of sorts. Like to play in the playoff, you

930
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 1: have to opt in with which means you have a

931
00:47:01,560 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 1: collective bargain agreement with players and you have this and

932
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:06,000
Speaker 1: you share money and you do this, and there's a

933
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:08,080
Speaker 1: list of things that you opt into doing because you

934
00:47:08,120 --> 00:47:11,280
Speaker 1: want to play for the play in the CFP or whatever,

935
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 1: like maybe that then the person in charge of the

936
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:21,239
Speaker 1: CFP can You're still got to piss a lot of

937
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:24,840
Speaker 1: people off, and that seems to be a very hard

938
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,319
Speaker 1: thing to get away with. So I try to step

939
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:29,360
Speaker 1: back at one point in the book and basically talk about,

940
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 1: like when we talk about the good of the sport,

941
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 1: what does that actually mean, Like what we actually care

942
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 1: the most about if we can't control the money and

943
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 1: everything else. And I think basically more than anything else,

944
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:44,240
Speaker 1: it's you know, basically teams playing the teams their fans

945
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:47,759
Speaker 1: want them to play for stakes that number one, the

946
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 1: players understand everybody understands, and also that are achievable to

947
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 1: some degree where if you have the best team in

948
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 1: the history of your school, you can beat a lot

949
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 1: of teams. You can in a lot of games, and

950
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 1: you can make it really far, you know, whether that's

951
00:48:01,600 --> 00:48:05,240
Speaker 1: whatever that is, you know, like we have Sweet sixteen

952
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 1: banners sometimes for basketball teams, right, Like the haves and

953
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 1: have nots can't be so far separated that they can

954
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:18,720
Speaker 1: never be touched, even if you know the have still

955
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:21,399
Speaker 1: have more than the have nots. Like it feels like

956
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 1: this is not crazy to talk about UCLA needing to

957
00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 1: play teams in the West, that that their fans can

958
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 1: travel to the games, that they played eighty one hundred

959
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:35,840
Speaker 1: times in their history, and that the have like that.

960
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 1: You know, we can still have another Boise State at

961
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:39,839
Speaker 1: some point in our lives. I don't. It doesn't feel

962
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:40,799
Speaker 1: like that's too much to ask.

963
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:45,840
Speaker 2: No, not at all, and it's uh. It brings me

964
00:48:45,880 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 2: full circle. I have one name. It's somebody who has

965
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 2: been able to weather so many powerful voices in his career,

966
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 2: is still very much in the center of the sport,

967
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:01,240
Speaker 2: is very vocal, is heard from seen all the time.

968
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 2: Jean Sterritor, Jean Sterotor running college football. You're telling me

969
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:11,360
Speaker 2: somebody who has been barked at by Rick Patino, Nick Saban,

970
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:15,399
Speaker 2: take your pick. Is there to just enforce rules? Right,

971
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 2: He didn't make the rules. He's there to enforce the

972
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:20,560
Speaker 2: rules that everybody agreed upon. It seems like he's got

973
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 2: a pretty steady personality. I don't know him personally. I

974
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 2: don't know what kind of skeletons he has. I don't

975
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:28,239
Speaker 2: know how compromised he has, But at least publicly, I

976
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 2: think we could do worse than Gene Sterritor.

977
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 1: Okay, okay, I have literally no other name to share

978
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 1: with you in that regard, but besides my own of.

979
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 2: Course, of course obviously. Yeah, you are coming at this

980
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 2: from I think an admirable place that you just want

981
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:44,879
Speaker 2: good football. You want teams to be respected if they're good,

982
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:46,960
Speaker 2: and you want teams to if they've earned a seat

983
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 2: at the table, to be at the table.

984
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:51,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's fine that Texas is always going to make

985
00:49:51,320 --> 00:49:53,239
Speaker 1: more and spend more than everybody else. Like, that's fine.

986
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 1: They just don't need even more money than they already have.

987
00:49:57,120 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 1: Is That's one of the things that drives me the crazy.

988
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:02,160
Speaker 1: Is now we hear a lot about like, especially now

989
00:50:02,160 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 1: that the ACC deals come about. Is someday Ohio State's

990
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 1: gonna realize that, you know, why are we making the

991
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:11,439
Speaker 1: same from this contract, leaving money on the table, leaven

992
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:13,879
Speaker 1: money on the table, and Minnesota is lucky to be here,

993
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:16,279
Speaker 1: so we have leverage. And that's what we all watch

994
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:18,400
Speaker 1: college sports for is leverage.

995
00:50:18,520 --> 00:50:20,040
Speaker 2: Yess, TV branding, Yep.

996
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:22,040
Speaker 1: They just they don't need more than they already have.

997
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 1: Even if they spend a ridiculous amount, they don't need

998
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:26,400
Speaker 1: more than they already have.

999
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 2: Final question, you just made your first trip to Japan.

1000
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:33,680
Speaker 2: I have not been to Japan. I'm dying to go

1001
00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 2: to Japan, to Kyoto and Tokyo, Osaka, you name it.

1002
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 2: What were your big takeaways? What are your big recommendations

1003
00:50:40,640 --> 00:50:42,800
Speaker 2: for people traveling to Japan.

1004
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:45,440
Speaker 1: First of all, that thirteen and a half hour flight

1005
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 1: was even more brutal than I thought it would. That's

1006
00:50:48,760 --> 00:50:51,400
Speaker 1: a long That was. That was tough, and I was

1007
00:50:51,400 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 1: trying to get up every couple of hours and my

1008
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 1: handstrings are still sore for a couple of days afterwards.

1009
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:56,799
Speaker 2: Like that was just that was.

1010
00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:00,359
Speaker 1: That was a lot, So be prepared for it gonna

1011
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:03,120
Speaker 1: be even worse than you think. Although flying back with

1012
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:04,719
Speaker 1: the current, it was only eleven and a half and

1013
00:51:04,760 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: suddenly that didn't seem bad at all.

1014
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 2: Great, So that's that's the difference. So bring some kind

1015
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:13,560
Speaker 2: of lacrosseball for your hamstrings. Really get the leg swings in, okay.

1016
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:16,120
Speaker 1: Like be the person who just stands in the aisle

1017
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:19,800
Speaker 1: and does the stretches every few hours, like embarrass yourself.

1018
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 1: It's fine, you're just trying to survive here.

1019
00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 2: You're only as happy as your ligaments.

1020
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:27,440
Speaker 1: So it was one of those school trips the you

1021
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 1: know the kids in seventh grade. It was with EV Tours,

1022
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:35,160
Speaker 1: so we didn't every minute was planned basically, so you know,

1023
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:37,279
Speaker 1: that was you know, I want to I knew that

1024
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:39,480
Speaker 1: the result of this trip would be that I immediately

1025
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:42,520
Speaker 1: wanted to go back with my own itinerary, and that's

1026
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:45,800
Speaker 1: what it was. But basically, the main takeaways are Tokyo

1027
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 1: is enormous and unknowable. Yeah, you could go to Tokyo

1028
00:51:49,640 --> 00:51:53,319
Speaker 1: ten times and see a completely different Tokyo. We did

1029
00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 1: get We did hit all the major tourist notes and

1030
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 1: ate some good hot pot and ramen and all that,

1031
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 1: but it's it's such an enormous freaking city like that was.

1032
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 1: It was hard to get to know. Osaka is the

1033
00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 1: trendy Osaka is the la Okay much further on the

1034
00:52:09,520 --> 00:52:13,840
Speaker 1: trendy side, pretty expensive, overall, lots of weird personality there.

1035
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:16,440
Speaker 1: We were only in O soccer for like four hours,

1036
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:17,799
Speaker 1: so I only got to know so much, but that

1037
00:52:17,880 --> 00:52:20,160
Speaker 1: was good. Kyoto's the one I absolutely want to go

1038
00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 1: back to. Kyoto was super cool. We were there for

1039
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:26,960
Speaker 1: a few days. Obviously, it's ridiculously old, so like the

1040
00:52:27,000 --> 00:52:30,279
Speaker 1: temples and shrines there are particularly important and old and

1041
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:33,800
Speaker 1: all that, and it's cool. It's got like thirty colleges

1042
00:52:33,800 --> 00:52:37,400
Speaker 1: in the town, in that city, the shopping district. The

1043
00:52:37,719 --> 00:52:40,920
Speaker 1: kid loved it. She found out she has her favorite

1044
00:52:40,920 --> 00:52:42,839
Speaker 1: thing I think from this trip, other than petting deer

1045
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:45,440
Speaker 1: at one of the shrine at the shrines outside Osaka,

1046
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:49,720
Speaker 1: was that she has officially a favorite record store in Kyoto.

1047
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 1: Oh that's cool. That was cool. She's you know, she's

1048
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:53,719
Speaker 1: a pretty cool thirteen year old.

1049
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, she can forever now say like, oh, this

1050
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 2: record store in Columbia in Saint Louis and dead it's cool.

1051
00:52:59,800 --> 00:53:02,239
Speaker 1: It's it's called Happy Jack too. It's called Happy Jack,

1052
00:53:02,239 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 1: which is even better. But it's no Happy Jack.

1053
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:07,400
Speaker 2: You should if you like records. I got a spot

1054
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:12,800
Speaker 2: in Kyoto that she could tell her friends Kyoto. Yeah, yeah, so, okay, great.

1055
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 2: I I feel like you need a solid two Weeks're

1056
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:19,279
Speaker 2: going there for the first time to explore and just

1057
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 2: make even a little bit of sense. I can't wait

1058
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 2: to go. It's even pizza place. It's a pizza place.

1059
00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:25,239
Speaker 2: Tokyo style pizza is a thing.

1060
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:30,040
Speaker 1: I the biggest mistake I made, however, and definitely don't

1061
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:33,720
Speaker 1: don't do what I did and assume that all the weird,

1062
00:53:33,800 --> 00:53:36,359
Speaker 1: super weird kit cats that you're seeing everywhere are going

1063
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:40,319
Speaker 1: to be in the duty free fancy. So we got

1064
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:42,040
Speaker 1: there was plenty of good stuff in the duty Freeze.

1065
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 1: But then we had to come home and immediately mail

1066
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:46,839
Speaker 1: order all the weird kit cats and we got him

1067
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 1: in before the tariffs. So that was good.

1068
00:53:48,200 --> 00:53:50,720
Speaker 2: Oh, very nice. So that that was your altri Ault

1069
00:53:50,719 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 2: Flavor Priority A.

1070
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:55,360
Speaker 1: Flavored found a big you had the purple Sweet Potato

1071
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:59,279
Speaker 1: had the sake flavored cat cats. There's some there's some

1072
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 1: funky stuff and I appreciate how weird they get with

1073
00:54:02,120 --> 00:54:02,720
Speaker 1: the kit kats.

1074
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:05,719
Speaker 2: Love to hear it, all right, Bill Connolly, everybody, I

1075
00:54:05,760 --> 00:54:09,080
Speaker 2: don't know if Forward Progress is available for pre order yet,

1076
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:10,480
Speaker 2: but it should be.

1077
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:12,839
Speaker 1: It was, I don't think so it was on there's

1078
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,880
Speaker 1: like a placeholder on Amazon. But okay, I'll definitely let

1079
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:19,680
Speaker 1: everybody know when it's time to pre order. Please follow covers. Yes,

1080
00:54:19,840 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 1: love the cover covers. Great, cover is great. Hopefully between

1081
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:23,799
Speaker 1: the covers is good.

1082
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 2: It's gene sterotor looking handsome as ever. Bill, Thank you

1083
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:31,320
Speaker 2: so much for your time. Check out his work on ESPN.

1084
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:34,120
Speaker 2: Of course, once Forward Progress is available for pre order,

1085
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:37,520
Speaker 2: do check it out, and good luck with all of

1086
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:39,440
Speaker 2: your future kit Kat purchases.

1087
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:40,719
Speaker 1: Take care,