1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg pim L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,200 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg pi L podcast on iTunes, 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. All right, let's solve 7 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: some of the issues related to investing in fixed income 8 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:35,839 Speaker 1: with Jim Bianco. He is the president and the founder 9 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: of Bianco Research, and he joins us now, Jim, great 10 00:00:39,440 --> 00:00:41,199 Speaker 1: to have you with us. As always, I wonder if 11 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: you could just comment on an interview that Bloomberg's Eric 12 00:00:45,680 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 1: Schatzka just did with the Ben Melkman Uh formerly of 13 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 1: Brevan Howard is speaking about the the slope of the 14 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 1: yield curve and how he sees that that is going 15 00:00:55,160 --> 00:01:00,320 Speaker 1: to increase. Uh. Great conviction, Great conviction. I beg your pardon, 16 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: great conviction that you're going to see this big slope 17 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 1: we move higher in the yeeld curve. Yeah, not really. 18 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: I I understand why you would think that if you 19 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,000 Speaker 1: thought that inflation was going to come back, and you'd 20 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: say and even if the FED was going to raise rates, 21 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 1: the long end of the Yelk curve would go up 22 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: a lot faster. But I'm not fully into the inflation 23 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:26,960 Speaker 1: camp just yet. I know that that's been the popular 24 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: idea for a lot of people, that inflation is going 25 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 1: to return, and if not, and we see more weakness, 26 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 1: you're going to see the long end of the yeel 27 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:37,040 Speaker 1: curve fallen yields relative to the front end of the 28 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: Yelk curve. They're not gonna go down in the front end. 29 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 1: They might still go up at the FED races rates, 30 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 1: and you might see still see the curve stay words 31 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 1: at right now, if not flatten a little bit more. 32 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: But it really comes down to what your view of 33 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: inflation is. That it's it's not here yet. I understand 34 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: that everybody's looking for it. I get the idea that 35 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: wages are percolating a little bit, but they have been 36 00:01:59,840 --> 00:02:03,840 Speaker 1: for about eighteen months. Uh. I also see the idea 37 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: that you know, in the forward measures of inflation, like 38 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 1: inflation expectations are starting to move a little bit higher. 39 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 1: But I've seen this movie since two thousand nine, at 40 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: least four or five other times, and it always seems 41 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 1: to peter her out because at the end of the day, 42 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: you still have way too weak a growth I think 43 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 1: to create the um the type of inflation demand pull 44 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: that I think most people are looking for, because I 45 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 1: don't see that. I don't think we're going to get 46 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 1: the inflation that everybody's hoping for. See, you had Morgan 47 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 1: Stanley coming out earlier today and talking about how he 48 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: had they expect uh the ten your treasury yield to 49 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: go to two percent by your end. It's currently at 50 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,239 Speaker 1: one point eight percent. What do you think where do 51 00:02:42,280 --> 00:02:45,040 Speaker 1: you think it will end up? You know, two percent? 52 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 1: It's probably a ceiling. Because I'm a lot more bullish 53 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 1: than people think I'm. My my view going into next 54 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 1: year is still going to be that inflation is not 55 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: going to be there, the growth is gonna stay low. 56 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:57,800 Speaker 1: We still have the potential of a shock maybe in 57 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 1: financial markets that could push financial markets down, something similar 58 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 1: to a Brexit. Maybe it's next week in the election, 59 00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:07,680 Speaker 1: or maybe it's in December with the Italian referendum, which 60 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 1: I think could be Blexit one point five that the 61 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:13,920 Speaker 1: Italian referendum is that big. So there's a lot of 62 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: things I see that could push rates lower. As opposed 63 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,639 Speaker 1: to pushing them higher. So yeah, we hit one yesterday. 64 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: Two percent might be an absolute ceiling on the market, 65 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 1: But I do think that the next big moving rates 66 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 1: would be lower. All right, next big moving rates lower? Chimpianco. 67 00:03:32,680 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: Tell me about commodity prices. Are commodity prices at their 68 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: bottom or are we going to see a continued increase? Well, 69 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: you know the thing about commodities right now is you 70 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: almost have to separate them out, you know, Like my 71 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 1: favorite line about them is carn copper, cocoa, crude oil, um, 72 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:53,040 Speaker 1: and coffee. I'll start with the letter C. But they're 73 00:03:53,040 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 1: not all necessarily commodities in a aggregate because they all 74 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 1: do very different things. The agricultural markets look very bullish 75 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: right now. They could continue to move higher. The precious 76 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 1: metals are struggling. I still think that oil is topping 77 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: or the energy complex is topping as well too. And 78 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 1: you're kind of going sideways with the industrial metals. So 79 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: they're all over the lot. But if you wanted to 80 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: look at it in a big picture, there is no 81 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: strong breakout of the commodity indexes right now. They're probably 82 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 1: trending sideways to slightly lower and that strong breakout, which 83 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 1: would suggest world growth is coming. I don't think that 84 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 1: indicator is going to give it to us right now. 85 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 1: So you know, you're saying that you think there's the 86 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 1: next move in rates is going to be lower. Uh, 87 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:39,279 Speaker 1: it seems like the consensus from well, it seems like 88 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 1: the consensus is kind of splintering. What do you think 89 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: the big consensus trade is right now? You know, that's 90 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: a good question because it depends on who you talk to. 91 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: If if you ask somebody who's got the title economist, 92 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,920 Speaker 1: they've embarrassed on rates since about two thousand three, and 93 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 1: you know, don't let a hundred and fifty months of 94 00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:58,160 Speaker 1: being wrong getting away. Their rates are still going to 95 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 1: keep going up. If you ask a grater, they're much 96 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 1: more bultless on the market right now, and portfolio managers 97 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 1: are a little bit in the middle. I would still 98 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 1: argue to you, though, that the bigger surprise in the 99 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: marketplace would be a move down to one thirty on 100 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: the tenure yield, which was the early July low and 101 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:19,720 Speaker 1: the all time low, as opposed to a move back 102 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: to the January one high of to So I think 103 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 1: that the surprise move given all of that would probably 104 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: be a revisit of the All Time Lows, which was 105 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 1: set just in early July. So we're gonna see this 106 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: movie for another like seven or eight, maybe nine more times. 107 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:38,359 Speaker 1: Jim Bianco, thank you so much for coming and joining us. 108 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:51,680 Speaker 1: Jim Bianco of Bianco Research in Chicago. I want to 109 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: learn more about Suicide Squad. I want to learn more 110 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 1: about Suicide Squad from Paul Sweeney, the director of North 111 00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: American Research and Media UH for Bloomberg Intelligence. Paul, did 112 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 1: you see it? I did not, but fortunately a lot 113 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:06,919 Speaker 1: of other people did. And that was one of the 114 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:10,159 Speaker 1: contributors to a pretty strong quarter from Time Warner this morning. 115 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,359 Speaker 1: You know, their movie Studio did did did well as expected. 116 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 1: The cable networks actually did a little bit better than expected, 117 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 1: and that those are the real cash flow drivers for 118 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: the company. UH and HBO, the third leg of that stool. 119 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 1: At that the company also had a pretty good quarter. 120 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 1: So the company beat expectations here in the quarter. They 121 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 1: were able to raise their guidance for the year a 122 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,240 Speaker 1: little bit in terms of profitability, so I'm sure they 123 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 1: feel pretty good about it. I'm sure A T and 124 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 1: T does as well. Well. Yeah, so this is this 125 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: is what surprises me. Right, Time Warner should feel good, 126 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 1: A T and T should feel good. Both stocks down. Yeah, 127 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 1: I think the you know, it's interesting about this deal, 128 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 1: the A T. T and Time Warner deal. The marketplace 129 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:51,040 Speaker 1: is very dubious about this deal getting approved. I mean, 130 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:53,280 Speaker 1: it's it's a transaction that's not scheduled closing to the 131 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: end of twenty seventeen. But even if you kind of 132 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 1: do the arbitrage math, that suggests that, I think the 133 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 1: market is dis kind of a less than fifty fifty 134 00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 1: chance that this deal gets approved by by the regulators. 135 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: And so you know, we're gonna have to see how 136 00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 1: things play out with the election and then see how 137 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 1: the things play out with the regulators. But a lot 138 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 1: of uncertainty around this deal. Hey, Paul, can we just 139 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 1: go through the three areas that Time Warner is on 140 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: involving because you mentioned the cable channels, right, the cable 141 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 1: broadcast monthly subscription fees higher, right, So it's you know, 142 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: the monthly subscription fees. Those those are the fees that 143 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:32,480 Speaker 1: the cable companies like Comcast and pay to the media 144 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: owners like Time Warner and by via com to carry 145 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: the channels. Those have typically have been growing a revenue 146 00:07:38,480 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 1: stream for the media companies in the high single digit range. Uh. 147 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 1: Time Warner actually did a little bit better. Um, they 148 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: were able to renegotiate some of their contracts recently. That 149 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: took advantage that we're that priced in the NBA UH contract, 150 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: which they were able to charge them higher fees because 151 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: they're now carrying some NBA games. So UH, that was 152 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: a pretty strong driver for them. Advertising UH is still 153 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 1: relatively strong in the marketplace, and Time Warners cable networks 154 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 1: are big beneficiary of that as well. Is is the 155 00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 1: HBO now that stand alone streaming service they give any 156 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 1: indication or how that's performing, Uh, it's performing pretty well. 157 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: There's there's north of one million new subscribers or stand 158 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: alone subscribers to HBO. Now, UM, you know, the real 159 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 1: question that I think investors have is are these new 160 00:08:23,480 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: subscribers to HBO or they cannabalizing some of their existing 161 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: subscribers that get it through a cable system. Time Warners 162 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: suggesting that the vast majority of these are our new subscribers, UH, 163 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 1: younger demos, people that were not subscribing to HBO in 164 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 1: the future. But that's clearly I think where the industry 165 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 1: is going, which is to make your programming available not 166 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 1: just on the traditional cable systems, but also direct to consumers, 167 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 1: very similar to help people get their Netflix. So at 168 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: the end of the day, we're going to know everything 169 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:57,800 Speaker 1: that we need to know about media, the current state 170 00:08:57,800 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 1: of media in the world. We're gonna get some earnings 171 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:03,640 Speaker 1: from twenty first century Fox as well as Facebook. So 172 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 1: when you wake up tomorrow morning, what's the narrative going 173 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: to be. Well, the narrative is going to be that 174 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: the traditional media companies like twenty one century Fox are 175 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:12,960 Speaker 1: in pretty good shape, but the real growth, the real 176 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: ad dollars are shifting continuing to shift to the media 177 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,839 Speaker 1: to the online media companies like Facebook. So Facebook is 178 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: going to put up a revenue growth north of fifty 179 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 1: percent um, and you compare that to some of the 180 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 1: high single digit revenue we've seen from the traditional media 181 00:09:26,440 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: companies and just shows you the way of the world. 182 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,080 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna say, take a look at the annual 183 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 1: revenue growth of Facebook. We're going I know we're going 184 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 1: to get quarterly after the close of trading, but you're 185 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,840 Speaker 1: talking going from five billion to seven point eight billion 186 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: to twelve to seventeen. The estimate now twenty two billion, 187 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: and this is in four years. A company goes from 188 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: five billion to twenty two billion. Yeah, it's just amazing. 189 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: And if you think about online uh, you know, internet advertising, 190 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 1: two companies take more than fifty of it, and that 191 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,559 Speaker 1: is Facebook and Google. If you're a big brand advertiser 192 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: like a Ford Motor Company or a Coca Cola and 193 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: you want to advertise digitally, only two places you can 194 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 1: really spend your money, and that's Google and Facebook. And 195 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: they also integrate the advertising and marketing. They actually have 196 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:16,000 Speaker 1: employees from both companies. The advertisers plus Facebook and Google 197 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 1: actually get together on a regular basis, uh, to make 198 00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: those kinds of decisions. Yeah, it's it's it's really been 199 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 1: been amazing kind of what what they're doing, and it's 200 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 1: kind of frozen out a lot of the other players. 201 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 1: So you see like a Twitter sitting there with three 202 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 1: and twenty million uh subscribers are users onto their platform. 203 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: They are really finding it hard to really get the 204 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: attention at Madison Avenue and a big advertisers, so it's 205 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 1: really become a dual woppily from the perspective of uh, 206 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 1: you know, the big online advertisers. So you know that's 207 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: one of the things A T and T says, A 208 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:44,720 Speaker 1: T and T says, we are going to create a 209 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: big advertising alternative to the Google and facebooks of the world. Well, 210 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,679 Speaker 1: as Lisa just mentioned, shares of A T and T 211 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: there down about a quarter of a percent today. Thank 212 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:59,200 Speaker 1: you very much for joining us. Paul Sweeney, head of Research, 213 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 1: Director of Research for Bloomberg Intelligence. Well, he's a human 214 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 1: and he's been tracking human feelings about the election. Mark 215 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 1: Niquette is our politics and national government reporter for Bloomberg News. 216 00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 1: He can be followed on Twitter at m Niquette. All right, Mark, 217 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 1: we got a pole and then there's something from President 218 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 1: Obama having to do with the FBI. Let's start with 219 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:34,199 Speaker 1: the independent of the Poll of Independence by Bloomberg Politics. 220 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 1: What what does it show. It's actually a bit of 221 00:11:36,600 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 1: good news for Hillary Clinton after several days here of 222 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:43,400 Speaker 1: bad news related to the release of the FBI letter 223 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: showing there is more scrutiny on emails. The Poll of 224 00:11:47,240 --> 00:11:51,080 Speaker 1: Independence folks who say they haven't decided yet showed her 225 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: with a slight advantage over Donald Trump. About that's important 226 00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: because this is a group of swing voters that can 227 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: often decide an election in particularly in key battleground states. 228 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:04,559 Speaker 1: And it's a group that Republican met Romney won by 229 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 1: five percentage points in twelve. So it shows that Donald 230 00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: Trump is still having some trouble sort of building the 231 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 1: coalition of of Republicans and independence that you know helped 232 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:19,199 Speaker 1: Romney and twelve and even then he lost. So it 233 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 1: shows he still has some work to do to get 234 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,800 Speaker 1: these folks to build a coalition that wins. It seems like, 235 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: just based on market action, that a lot of traders 236 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 1: certainly think that Trump is that Mr Trump is is 237 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 1: positioning in a better position right now to become our 238 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:38,440 Speaker 1: next president than Secretary Clinton. And you know, from the 239 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 1: people you speak with, the analysts, do you do, they 240 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: seem to suggest that Trump has seriously improved his odds 241 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: of becoming president in the past couple of days. Now 242 00:12:49,800 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 1: there are signs and suggestions that you know, he has 243 00:12:52,920 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: better position today than he was a last week. I mean, 244 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: certainly before the news that fb FBI letter broke, you know, 245 00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: the sense was we were headed towards a pretty solid 246 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: Clinton victory and that the race has tightened now significantly now, 247 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:08,239 Speaker 1: you know, we always expected the race to get closer 248 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 1: as Republican voters sort of came home in the final 249 00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 1: days before the election. Um, but the FBI revelation seemed 250 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: to have sort of shifted the thinking and feeling about 251 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 1: this race. I mean, it's still I think gonna be 252 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 1: an uphill climb for Trump to get to electoral votes. 253 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,679 Speaker 1: I mean, his campaign has essentially laid out that he 254 00:13:26,720 --> 00:13:31,680 Speaker 1: needs to win Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa and 255 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 1: then another battleground state to really have a good shot 256 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 1: at two torn it to the in seventy electoral votes. 257 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 1: So Clinton can stop him in any one of those states, 258 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 1: you know, she would still be the favorite, I think. 259 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 1: But you know, as it has been through this entire election, 260 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 1: people are weary now of making predictions, and it's been 261 00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: so unpredictable. You know, we're gonna have to see what 262 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:52,199 Speaker 1: happens on election day for sure. Another big question are 263 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,720 Speaker 1: certainly among the people who I speak with, is will 264 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 1: Congress back Donald Trump's proposals, Particularly is economic proposals, which 265 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 1: are rather expansive and don't really kind of cohere with 266 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 1: traditional uh sort of fiscal conservatism. Uh So you know, 267 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,079 Speaker 1: what's your sense, do you use your sense that that 268 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 1: the House and Senate will back his proposals as is, 269 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 1: well a lot will be turned down. What the composition 270 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: of Congress looks like after this election. I mean, we're 271 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 1: still waiting to see, you know what, who controls the Senate. 272 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: You know, there's a there's a chance at least for 273 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,320 Speaker 1: the Democrats to regain control there and with the mix 274 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: of sort of very conservative members versus you know, more 275 00:14:29,760 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 1: moderate Republicans in the House will be assuming they continue 276 00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 1: controlling that chamber. Um, And you're right, I mean, there's 277 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,440 Speaker 1: there's Trump's proposals have kind of a mix of sort 278 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: of more traditional Reaganesque kind of elements, like his tax 279 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 1: proposals I think would would have more broadest acceptance there. 280 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 1: But you know there's other things that I think he 281 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 1: would have trouble getting through Congress. But you know, a 282 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 1: lot of variables there to be determined before we can 283 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: sort of guess on how you know, anything specific might 284 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: play out. Mark the President. President Barack Obama has said 285 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 1: he was giving a interview and online he describes He 286 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:10,960 Speaker 1: said that the FBI Director James Comby's decision to renew 287 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: a probe of Hillary Clinton's emails had become a political controversy. Yeah, 288 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: I think there's no question about that. I mean, President 289 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 1: Obama is in a tough position, and as much as 290 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 1: this is his appointed right and he can't sort of 291 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 1: be out there publicly, you know, sort of questioning him 292 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 1: or or undermining him. Um, but you know there's no 293 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 1: question that you know, having the FBI director, you know, 294 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 1: send this letter to Congress eleven days before election sort 295 00:15:36,640 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: of raises the question of whether you know, the FBI 296 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: is you know, interfering or at least you know, influencing 297 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: election by doing this so close to the voting, and 298 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 1: you know, whether that was the intent or not. Sort 299 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 1: the practical outlook impact of that could be that this 300 00:15:52,840 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: ways you know, votes in the race, which is something 301 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 1: that you know, the Justice Department and FBI you know, 302 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 1: sort of a rule that right to avoid you know, 303 00:16:00,920 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 1: pretty fastidiously. I mean, this is basically like Obama saying 304 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: we breathe there. I mean, of course, has become a 305 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: political controversy. I mean every poll has kind of showed 306 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 1: that it's certainly being taken to some degree, uh like 307 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 1: that whether or not it's justified or not is a 308 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 1: whole other question. It certainly has become a political story. 309 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: Mark going forward, what is the one thing that you're 310 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:21,000 Speaker 1: looking at today that you think that is sort of 311 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 1: the underreported story. I think the underreported story, UM is 312 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 1: what's happening with early vote among key elements of the 313 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: Obama coalition. This is the sort of African Americans, young 314 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: voters in particular Latinos who supported Barack Obama and are 315 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: they UM is going to go with with Hillary Clinton 316 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: in the numbers that she needs to UM to win. 317 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: And we're seeing a little bit of that insight with 318 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 1: the early voting totals that are coming out suggest that 319 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: there might be less enthusiasm among African Americans, for example, 320 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: for Hillary Clinton and there was for Obama. And I 321 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: think diving into those numbers and how that coalition votes 322 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: will a little long wait or to turning whether Hillary 323 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 1: Clinton wins. Mark Niqette, thank you so much for being 324 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: with us. Mark Niquette, politics and national government reporter for 325 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:11,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News breaking down all things related to this presidential election. 326 00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:15,159 Speaker 1: I'm Lisa Bramo. It's here with pim Fox. This is Bloomberg. 327 00:17:25,880 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 1: The Shares of te connectivity. They are higher by about 328 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 1: one and a half percent. Many people may not know 329 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 1: about t E Connectivity. It has a former name, Tycho Electronics. 330 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 1: And here to tell us more about t E Connectivity 331 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,880 Speaker 1: and its future is Tom Lynch. He is the chairman 332 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 1: of the Connectivity. He's also the outgoing chief executive. Also 333 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,119 Speaker 1: with us is the president and the incoming chief executive, 334 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: Terrence Curtain. Thank you, gentlemen for being here here. I 335 00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 1: was gonna say that must be some kind of special ceremony, 336 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: you know, a secret password or something. But I'm wondering 337 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 1: if you could just describe Tom, what kind of company 338 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: are you? I know you're gonna remain chairman, but what 339 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: kind of company do you feel you're handing over to 340 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: Terrence to to take charge of a very good company. 341 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:15,919 Speaker 1: We have lots of opportunity to get better detailed. Give 342 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 1: I know, but give us the d because I was 343 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 1: reading there's a lot of cool stuff you've been You 344 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: work with companies like Google and Facebook. People may not 345 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 1: know this. Tell us what what is t E Connectivity. 346 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 1: T Connectivity is a twelve billion dollar global company with 347 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,479 Speaker 1: seventy of our revenue outside the US, and we're right 348 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: in the middle of the connected world phenomena. So automotive, aircraft, machinery, 349 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:41,679 Speaker 1: communications equipment, sent medic a lot of sensors, a lot 350 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: of connectors, and a lot of connectors, uh twelve billion 351 00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,920 Speaker 1: plus of them. So we're in a great a great industry, 352 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 1: say multiple industries. Everybody's our customers, we like to say, well, 353 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 1: and it's a very competitive industry. So, Terrence, I wanted 354 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 1: to talk with you a little bit about going forward. Yes, 355 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,160 Speaker 1: this is the future as far as is everything under 356 00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: the sun being connected, but there is everyone also wanting 357 00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 1: to get in that from Google to Amazon to who 358 00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: knows whoever h So what's the competitive landscape like and 359 00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 1: how big do you think the business could grow when 360 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: when we look at the business day, like Tom says, 361 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 1: about twelve billion dollars, and when we look at the landscape, 362 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,639 Speaker 1: it's a pretty diverse landscape. The customers that you mentioned 363 00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 1: are more of our customers and competitors to Googles and 364 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,880 Speaker 1: the Facebook's. Our engineers were fortunate. We have over seven 365 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: thousand engineers that actually enable some of the customers that 366 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 1: you talked about, as well as the automotive companies that 367 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:33,520 Speaker 1: Tom talked about. So what's great is how we're globally deployed, 368 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:35,439 Speaker 1: and I think we get the benefit of the trends 369 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: of the connected world as well as the various industries 370 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 1: we have so that can be automotive, medical. From a 371 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:45,120 Speaker 1: competitive standpoint, it's many different type of competitors. There isn't 372 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 1: one single competitor we go up against. It really depends 373 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 1: upon the applications we play into, and that's one of 374 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,439 Speaker 1: the things that we think we excel at bringing that 375 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 1: engineering to our customers to really enable where they want 376 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 1: to take the connected world. Terrence, I got to mention 377 00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:02,200 Speaker 1: a couple of projects this kind of give some flesh 378 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 1: to all of this Pacific Light cable network. You have 379 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: just chosen, I believe to be a contractor there for 380 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 1: this is a Facebook Google project. You've also got the 381 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:15,159 Speaker 1: new Cross Pacific and Maria and I wonder if you 382 00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: could just tell us about each of those and and 383 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 1: how that defines the company. Yeah, him, great questions are 384 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 1: projects we've had in our SubCom business, which is a 385 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 1: little bit less than temporary to tell people's SubCom, SubCom, SUBM, 386 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 1: submarine communications, and really what we do in our SubCom 387 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 1: business is really build out the long haul oceanic systems 388 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 1: for the world, and they actually support the cloud. So 389 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,679 Speaker 1: anytime you think about a cloud application, really, where do 390 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 1: you get to the data senators support? And that's where 391 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,000 Speaker 1: the Facebook's, the Google's, the Microsoft that are building the 392 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 1: cloud applications. We support them by building systems that they 393 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: actually own and use to make sure they can bring 394 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:56,160 Speaker 1: their services down to their customers. And that's what's great 395 00:20:56,200 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 1: about what t E does is we enable our customers 396 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,240 Speaker 1: to bring that great connected world tour. Tom, You've been 397 00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 1: the CEO since two thousand and six. The world has 398 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:08,720 Speaker 1: changed a lot in the ten years. What's been the 399 00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: biggest change in your industry? Well, the trends have accelerated 400 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:15,879 Speaker 1: for connectivity, that's the biggest thing. You know, it has 401 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 1: been a big shift. It's just been no it's it's 402 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,879 Speaker 1: just it's acceleration. So maybe the best way to think 403 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 1: about it, I think of what a car was like 404 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 1: ten years ago versus today. It's it's incredibly different inside, right, 405 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,439 Speaker 1: you still have four tires and an engine, but the 406 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:33,200 Speaker 1: connectivity throughout it, the safety systems throughout it. Every time, 407 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 1: you know, the UH you have to improve emissions, more 408 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 1: and more technology going into the car. So that's the 409 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 1: great thing about this business. It's this acceleration of smarts 410 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:47,160 Speaker 1: into virtually every aspect of the world, and it requires 411 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 1: more sensors and more connectivity. For us as a business, 412 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: the big changes. We weren't in the censor business ten 413 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,959 Speaker 1: years ago. Now we're one of the world's leading sensor suppliers. 414 00:21:56,320 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 1: We weren't in the minimally invasive medical device business selling uh, 415 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 1: the subsystems into that. Now we're one of the biggest 416 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 1: players in that area. So for us, you know, we've 417 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,200 Speaker 1: jumped on those big trends in the last five years. 418 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,200 Speaker 1: Margins tell us a little bit about margins. Who wants 419 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 1: to handle that? You want to take that? Go ahead. 420 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,800 Speaker 1: Our margins today are pre tax operating margins run north 421 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: of six or after tax margins run about twelve. So 422 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 1: a very healthy business. And the reason for that is is, 423 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,479 Speaker 1: as Terrence mentioned, in these harsh environments where of our 424 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 1: business is very hard to you know, to to get 425 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 1: these solutions and get them right. So if we design 426 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,919 Speaker 1: something in that has to go onto the engine of 427 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: a car, it's and that car is on the road 428 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 1: for twenty years, it has to last for twenty years 429 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 1: and all, you know, the in the environment, whether it's hot, cold, wet, dry, 430 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 1: So you get paid for that because your customers rely. 431 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 1: We're very deep in the architecture of our customers and products, 432 00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 1: and you get paid for that. So it's it's a 433 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: good business and it's a good cash flow business. Thank 434 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 1: you so much for being with us. Uh Tom Lynch, 435 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 1: the outgoing CEO of t E Connectivity, and Terrence Curtain, 436 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 1: the incoming CEO of the company. Thank you so much 437 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:18,480 Speaker 1: for being with us. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 438 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 1: P and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 439 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:26,600 Speaker 1: interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 440 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 1: I'm pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter at pim Fox. 441 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 1: I'm out there on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. It's one 442 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:36,200 Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide on 443 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.