WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 11 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 27) 0:00:08.039 --> 0:00:08.760 Hey to everyone. 0:00:08.800 --> 0:00:11.440 Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to 0:00:11.480 --> 0:00:14.480 you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You 0:00:14.480 --> 0:00:17.639 can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It 0:00:17.720 --> 0:00:19.840 is time to break down some of our favorite and 0:00:19.960 --> 0:00:22.920 our least favorite bets for the Week eleven NFL Slate. 0:00:23.320 --> 0:00:25.560 With me to talk about it all is Andrew Kayley, 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:28.880 a senior publishing editor over at Covers. You can find 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:34.120 him on Twitter at Covers Underscore. Kaylee. That's c. A. L. E. Y, Andrew, 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:37.400 How is it possibly week eleven already? 0:00:37.400 --> 0:00:37.879 Where are we? 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:41.520 I don't know. It's week twelve in college too. We're 0:00:41.560 --> 0:00:43.880 just a few weeks away from bowl games. It goes 0:00:43.920 --> 0:00:45.520 so fast, it really does. 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:48.120 I think about it with baseball, because you know, I 0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:49.480 do a lot of baseball as well. 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:50.879 Baseball's forever. 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:53.480 Man Like, by the time it's over, I'm so glad 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:56.360 it's over at this point, and with the NFL season, 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:57.800 it's just like, where did it go? 0:00:57.920 --> 0:00:58.640 I don't you know. 0:00:58.800 --> 0:01:00.800 It's other than the fact that I'm living now in 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:02.840 the Arctic tundra. You know, I'm up in New England, 0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:05.839 so it's freezing. Other than that, I wouldn't even understand 0:01:05.880 --> 0:01:07.520 that it's basically time to end the season. 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:11.560 Yeah, winter just hit too. I'm even more even northeast 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:14.200 than you up here in Atlanta, Canada, and winter hit 0:01:14.240 --> 0:01:18.040 the last two days and it did. It's cold playoffs 0:01:18.080 --> 0:01:19.160 just a couple of weeks away. 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:23.440 So well, let's distract ourselves with some gambling advice here. 0:01:23.560 --> 0:01:24.039 I like that. 0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:25.640 Yeah, you guys know the drill. 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:27.119 By now, Andrew and I are going to be giving 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:29.319 some of our favorite and our least favorite picks for 0:01:29.360 --> 0:01:31.720 this week. But as always, let's start with a quick 0:01:31.760 --> 0:01:34.640 review of last week. I hit on the over fifty 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:36.800 two and a half in the Bucks Cardinals game, and 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:38.920 the under forty two and a half on the Bears 0:01:38.920 --> 0:01:41.679 and the Lions. Now I narrowly missed by a mere 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:45.000 twenty six points on the Bengals getting ten from the Ravens, 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:48.320 and for real, actually narrowly missed on my prop bet, 0:01:48.360 --> 0:01:50.680 which was Aaron Jones over one hundred yards rushing. He 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:53.520 had ninety three and only got thirteen carries. Meanwhile, our 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:56.040 guest Adam Burke nailed the heck out of that Falcons, 0:01:56.080 --> 0:01:58.400 getting thirteen from the Saints game. He basically had that 0:01:58.480 --> 0:02:00.919 game completely dead to rights from the time he started 0:02:00.920 --> 0:02:03.560 analyzing it. He also hit on the Vikings getting three 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:06.200 from the Cowboys and Lamar Jackson over fifty nine and 0:02:06.240 --> 0:02:08.400 a half rushing yards. His only miss was on the 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:10.200 Lions getting two and a half from the Bears, but 0:02:10.320 --> 0:02:12.840 to be fair, he had absolutely no reason to know 0:02:12.880 --> 0:02:14.959 that Jef driscoll would be starting that game. So you 0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:17.880 got some big shoes to fill here, Andrew, Are you ready. 0:02:17.639 --> 0:02:20.359 It sounds like it? I am ready, all right. 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:22.679 So we're gonna get started as always with pick six, 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:25.720 where we're gonna give three each of our favorite bets, 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:27.919 either against the spread or on the over under. And 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:29.960 again we're gonna be using the betting pros dot Com 0:02:29.960 --> 0:02:32.480 consensus odds here that's an aggregate of the odds that 0:02:32.520 --> 0:02:34.400 are available in the market. Go ahead and start us off. 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:37.480 I promise this is not me trolling you, but this 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:40.799 is I'm taking the Jets and now it's even moved 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:43.120 even further in my favorite at plus two and a half, 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:46.799 which makes me feel a little uncomfortable, but I think 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:49.240 they're the better team still. I know, as a Jets 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:51.440 fan you probably hate to hear that, but just with 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:53.760 the way everything is going, and this all Adam Gase. 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:56.720 He's back. Yeah, I saw how happy you were about that. 0:02:57.720 --> 0:03:01.079 But I think they can still win this game in 0:03:01.320 --> 0:03:06.160 spite of Gase, particularly because of their defense. They rank 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:10.520 eleventh in the NFL in Football Outsiders DVA rankings and 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:13.760 second against the run. And Bill Callahan insists on continuing 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:17.200 to run the ball partly because Dwayne. He's committed to 0:03:17.280 --> 0:03:21.160 Dwayne Haskins being his quarterback and he doesn't really have 0:03:21.200 --> 0:03:23.360 any other choice. But they're really not even that good 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:26.400 at running the football. They rank thirtieth and rushing offense Toboa, 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:32.880 and they've only scored twenty one points with Haskins as 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:36.920 their quarterback. That's over a three game span, I believe. 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:41.600 And for your Jets, I still have faith in Sam Darnold. 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:44.960 He showed some life last week and his completion percentage 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:47.480 has improved over the last three That offensive line is 0:03:47.560 --> 0:03:51.960 kind of terrible, but I think they still have the 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:54.600 weapons here, and like I said, in spite of Gays, 0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:59.480 hopefully like they can get the ball to Crowder quickly 0:03:58.960 --> 0:04:03.840 in some quick slants and hopefully get Leavey on Bells 0:04:03.920 --> 0:04:05.440 more touches out of the backfield. I think you could 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:07.880 be effective in this game if they're passing the ball 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:09.920 to them out of the backfield. He hasn't run the 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:12.560 ball very well recently, I know that, but that's I 0:04:12.560 --> 0:04:16.240 think a product of that offensive line. But Washington is 0:04:16.279 --> 0:04:19.560 just really terrible, and I think they're gonna win this. 0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:21.160 I think they're gonna win the game out right, I 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:24.120 just do. So give me the two and a half points, 0:04:24.560 --> 0:04:26.920 and I might even bet them on the money line 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:27.440 this weekend. 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:30.240 Yeah. All right, So, first of all, I don't think 0:04:30.279 --> 0:04:30.839 you're trolling me. 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:33.080 I mean, I hope that you and I have a 0:04:33.120 --> 0:04:36.080 good relationship outside of this podcast, so I would assume 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:38.880 that your integrity would allow you to kind of come 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:41.040 on here and make a real pick. But I'll be honest, No, 0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:45.120 it is. Yeah, I'll be honest. I do not in 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:48.039 any way hate this pick. It's not one of my favorites, 0:04:48.160 --> 0:04:50.680 just because I'm so tired of backing the Jets like 0:04:50.720 --> 0:04:53.640 I did against the Patriots, like I did against the Jaguars, 0:04:53.680 --> 0:04:55.960 where they come out and do absolutely nothing. The fact 0:04:56.000 --> 0:04:57.520 that it's moved to two and a half is a 0:04:57.600 --> 0:05:00.800 little surprising here, because everything I'm seeing shows that both 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:03.280 the number of bets and the amount of money is 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:05.520 coming in on the Jets. So the fact that it's 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:08.120 a reverse line move makes me a little worried. But 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:09.920 this is what I said when we looked at it 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:12.200 on Monday, right when we looked at Sean Green and 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:13.880 I took a look at this line when it first opened, 0:05:13.920 --> 0:05:16.479 it was one and a half, and I was surprised 0:05:16.480 --> 0:05:19.239 by it because to me, it's a completely different story 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:21.520 with Dwayne Haskins starting at the time we looked at 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:23.840 it Monday, I think we had just found out about it, 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:26.440 or perhaps we found out about it shortly after that game. 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:29.880 But Dwayne Haskins, at least to this point, has not 0:05:29.920 --> 0:05:33.680 shown anything to suggest that he is remotely capable of 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:36.600 being an NFL quarterback at the moment. I'm not you know, 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:39.960 I'm not giving an indict he's yeah, he's not ready yet. 0:05:40.000 --> 0:05:42.400 And I completely agree with the Redskins throwing him out 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:44.000 there for the rest of the season because what else, 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:45.480 I mean, at this point, who cares? 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:47.400 You know, Let's at least let him get his feet wet. 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:49.640 I'm try it, yeah, yeah, let's let him try it. 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:53.920 So I think with that, it's just really difficult to 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:57.680 see the Redskins putting up any sort of points, like 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:00.360 consistent points in this game. You know, I could see them, 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:02.080 you know, popping off a touchdown once in a while. 0:06:02.160 --> 0:06:04.159 Now they've had the bye week, so they may have 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:06.640 been able to work out some of the kinks with him. 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:09.279 But the bottom line is he's just not particularly accurate. 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:11.880 He hasn't been reading defenses all that well. So in 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:13.960 the end, I'm fine with it, and I think I 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:15.640 would also. I would take it at two and a half. 0:06:15.640 --> 0:06:16.800 I would take it at one and a half as well, 0:06:16.800 --> 0:06:19.200 and a bet on the money line I did as well. Yeah, 0:06:19.200 --> 0:06:21.200 a bet on the money line isn't isn't the worst 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:23.320 idea because frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:24.040 Jets win this game. 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:27.440 The big thing with the Redskins is that, Frankly. 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:30.000 I really do think it just feels like Bill Callahan's 0:06:30.040 --> 0:06:31.760 trying to run out the clock on the season by 0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:36.200 running it NonStop legitimately, Yeah, like legitimately, and their games 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:39.000 are taking like two hours and forty minutes or something 0:06:39.040 --> 0:06:41.800 crazy like that. So I mean I could see him 0:06:41.880 --> 0:06:43.720 just sticking with the run. And again that is the 0:06:43.720 --> 0:06:46.799 one place that the Jets are really tough on defense. 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:48.920 They're injured up and down kind of the entire team, 0:06:48.920 --> 0:06:51.479 and they're vulnerable against the past. But again, I don't 0:06:51.520 --> 0:06:53.599 really see Haskins being able to take advantage of that. 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:55.440 So I'm totally fine with the two and a half. 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:59.359 Yeah, it really stood out to me just because of 0:06:59.400 --> 0:07:00.719 those because of those reasons. 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:02.280 Yeah, and again you liked it a one and a half, 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:03.880 So did I, and I said so on Monday, So 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:05.440 it is going to be one of my picks. It's 0:07:05.440 --> 0:07:08.240 not probably one of my favorites, mainly because I'm just 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:10.119 so beat down by the team. 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:11.480 And thanks for pointing. 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:13.960 Out that tweet, which by the way, was retweeting the 0:07:13.960 --> 0:07:16.080 announcement that Adam Gase will be back next year and 0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:19.840 then me doing the jiff of the wedding crasher singing 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:24.800 somebody kill me please. Anyway, that's how my life kind 0:07:24.800 --> 0:07:26.480 of is as a just then. But not for my 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:28.760 first pick. Now, I'm going to go with an over 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:31.960 under here, which I've been having a little success, what's 0:07:31.960 --> 0:07:34.120 been on a nice run, and I'm sticking with the 0:07:34.240 --> 0:07:37.160 team that's kind of been my favorite to stick with 0:07:37.200 --> 0:07:39.200 the Unders and that's the Bears, and I'm going to 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:42.520 take the Bears and the Rams under thirty nine and 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:45.520 a half. So I've had the Bears under here a lot, 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:48.160 and as I said, it's been a pretty solid bet, 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:50.600 and I hit on it last week. And look, both 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:53.520 these teams are solid on the under. They're both six 0:07:53.560 --> 0:07:56.000 and three on the under on the season. And it's 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:58.120 a pretty simple explanation. You know, you don't need to 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:00.600 be an expert to really be able to figure it out. 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:03.520 Both teams have poor offenses, and yes, the Rams have 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:07.400 a poor offense, and both both teams have strong defenses, 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:10.600 relatively strong defenses, not with the Bears on offense. Look, 0:08:10.680 --> 0:08:13.760 we know all the issues with Trubisky. He had a 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:17.280 good game against the Lions, but you really can't bank 0:08:17.320 --> 0:08:20.160 on that again, and even then they only scored twenty points. Anyway, 0:08:20.200 --> 0:08:22.200 he was like a hitter that got really hot, I 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:24.040 think for a couple of drives, right, because he looked 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:26.600 terrible to start off, then suddenly something clicked. 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:28.040 I don't bank on that happening again. 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:29.600 That's his entire career. 0:08:29.760 --> 0:08:32.120 Yeah, yeah, it's true. I mean he's certainly this year 0:08:32.120 --> 0:08:35.880 he's regressed significantly, which is unfortunate, But Dave Montgomery is 0:08:35.960 --> 0:08:38.440 banked up. He's not a lock to play at this point. 0:08:38.480 --> 0:08:41.040 I think he missed practice today and he was limited 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:43.720 after rolling his ankle the day before. And if not, 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:46.040 I'm really not sure what they're going to do on 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.680 the running game. They cut Mike Davis, Tarricohen can't really 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:52.440 carry a regular running back load. Ryan Knall is just 0:08:52.640 --> 0:08:54.240 not going to be able to get it done. I mean, 0:08:54.240 --> 0:08:56.920 I frankly, I hope I'm pronouncing that right, because I 0:08:56.960 --> 0:08:58.839 really don't know too much about him. I don't know 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:02.320 much either, Yeah, so that's saying enough. Plus Trey Burton 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:05.040 is battling a thigh injury. He might even miss the game. 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:08.160 And look, I'm just I don't think that there's any 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:10.640 way that the Bears are going to be able to 0:09:10.679 --> 0:09:13.040 stay in anything on offense, since they haven't been able 0:09:13.040 --> 0:09:15.480 to do it all season, and especially against a Rams 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:19.680 defense that has really improved in recent weeks, particularly since 0:09:19.720 --> 0:09:22.640 they added Jalen Ramsey, who's probably just going to take 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:26.000 on Alan Robinson and take away Trubisky's like lone reliable 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:28.880 wide receiver. As a whole, the defense is playing better 0:09:28.920 --> 0:09:31.120 lately Clay Matthews came back from his john jury. That 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:34.319 gives them another added dimension. So who's going to score 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:35.600 the points on the Rams side? 0:09:35.600 --> 0:09:36.160 I mean, the. 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:39.319 Offense is just broken, and it starts with their offensive line, right. 0:09:39.559 --> 0:09:43.720 You know, it's Andrew Whitworth and all backups at this point. 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:46.120 And they've been dealing with issues on the line all year. 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:49.080 They lost their center Brian Allen last week, they lost 0:09:49.080 --> 0:09:53.720 their right tackle, Havenstein. I mean, golf's been terrible. They're 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:56.440 down Brandon Cooks, Todd Gurley does not look the same. 0:09:56.440 --> 0:09:59.199 Their offensive line is on like their fourth backups. And 0:09:59.240 --> 0:10:01.440 remember last year when these two teams met, it was 0:10:01.600 --> 0:10:04.160 fifteen to six in favor of the Bears, right, and 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:07.120 that was back when Goff had a decent offensive line. 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:10.360 They intercepted him four times. Now, this Bear's defense isn't 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:12.400 the same as that one, I will admit. I mean, 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:16.080 Khalil Mack has not been particularly disruptive. Eddie Jackson hasn't 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:17.839 done all that much. They're down to keep Hicks. They 0:10:17.840 --> 0:10:20.400 just lost Danny Trevathan. But still they're able to get 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:23.280 pressure on the quarterback. And that is really what causes 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:26.920 Gough to be unable to put up points. So thirty 0:10:27.000 --> 0:10:29.520 nine and a half. Look, it's a low number, but honestly, 0:10:29.559 --> 0:10:32.720 absent a defensive scorer or two, I just don't see 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:35.760 how these offenses against these defenses are going to be 0:10:35.800 --> 0:10:37.400 able to read to reach that number. 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:40.200 I really can't disagree with you on that. We have 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:43.000 a huge Bear fan in my office, and when the 0:10:43.080 --> 0:10:44.960 number hit thirty nine and a half, I was like, 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:47.760 I approached him, doing now with the over is thirty 0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:49.600 nine and a half the number where we can attack 0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:52.080 the over now? And he was just he just shook 0:10:52.080 --> 0:10:55.880 his head. Traubisky has clearly, like you said, regress GoF 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:57.920 has his tune. For that matter, he only threw for you. 0:10:57.920 --> 0:10:59.600 Look at the numbers two hundred and forty three yards 0:10:59.679 --> 0:11:01.960 last week. He took him forty one attempts to get 0:11:02.000 --> 0:11:04.160 to two hundred and forty three yards. Like you said, 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:06.640 the Bears get a lot of pressure, and once he 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:09.760 starts moving his feet, he looked he rattles very easily 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:13.840 and his accuracy is out the window. I can't disagree 0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:16.400 with this play raider. And also Mac also just loves 0:11:16.520 --> 0:11:18.199 I know you said he hasn't been as good this year, 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:21.199 but he always just on primetime. You always see him 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:23.320 much more effective in those games. 0:11:23.360 --> 0:11:26.199 It seems, honestly, it's just thirty nine and a half. 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:29.600 It's a really low number. It's not something where I'm 0:11:29.679 --> 0:11:31.760 like jumping for joy over it. I believe the look 0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:33.760 ahead might have been forty two. So there was a 0:11:33.800 --> 0:11:35.800 ton of money that came in on the under for 0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:37.760 good reason. But honestly, I mean it was a little 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:39.560 bit of the same thing last week with the Bears 0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:41.920 and the Lions, where the under was coming in heavy 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:44.040 and they kept dropping the line. Doesn't really matter to me. 0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:46.160 I think there really has to be a defensive score, 0:11:46.200 --> 0:11:48.880 which is always a possibility with these two offenses at 0:11:48.880 --> 0:11:52.280 this point. But for me, I'll stick with riding the 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:55.800 under on both these teams, which has been pretty profitable. 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:57.240 All right, let's go to your second pick here, what 0:11:57.280 --> 0:11:58.640 do you got next pick? 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:02.040 I'm going with the New England Patriots minus three and 0:12:02.080 --> 0:12:05.760 a half at the Philadelphia Eagles, obviously being billed as 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:07.760 a Super Bowl rematch from a couple of years ago, 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:11.040 but only one of these teams has a chance to 0:12:11.040 --> 0:12:14.280 get back this year. Spoiler alert, it's New England. Everybody 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.200 knows that Patrick coming off a buye here and their 0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:20.520 first loss of the season. Everyone can start with their Oh, 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:23.439 the Patriots are done. Patriots are done, YadA, YadA, YadA. 0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:25.840 But they have to win two games and they'll be 0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:28.200 back in the super Bowl, So I'm not too stressed 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.839 about it. Belichick loves losing a game. I think now 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:33.680 these last couple of years to kind of motivate his 0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:36.120 guys a little more. And anytime you're gonna give Belichick 0:12:36.160 --> 0:12:39.920 an extra week off to prepare for another team, that's 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:42.480 trouble for that team. They are fifteen and four coming 0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:44.920 out of a buy in the Belichick era, only ten 0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:46.520 to eight and one against the spread in those games. 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:49.160 The Eagles have a good rush defense, one of the 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:51.479 better in the league, but that doesn't matter. The Patriots 0:12:51.559 --> 0:12:54.520 only run to, I don't know, trick people every once 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:56.199 in a while that we're not gonna throw the ball 0:12:56.240 --> 0:12:59.000 one hundred times a game, and that's gonna set up 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:01.720 well against an Eagle sect that just hasn't been very good. 0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:04.320 They have allowed at least one hundred yard receiver in 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:06.920 seven of their nine games this year. I think Edelman 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:10.320 and Muhammed Sanu could have some big games here Edelman 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.439 has been hauling a bunch of catches week after week. 0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:15.240 It seems like he's a guy that's another guy you 0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:17.360 can look at as a quick prop back to take 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:20.360 his over on reception totals, because he just seems to 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:22.760 go over every week. And he got an extra week 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:25.199 to rest his ailing hip, and it was another week 0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:28.520 for Snow to learn the Josh McDaniels offense. Sanu was 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:31.720 on the field for one hundred percent of the Patriots plays. 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:35.080 That's just kind of in his just in their last game, 0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:38.679 so you can tell how much the Patriots like this guy. 0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:40.400 And I think he could have another big week here. 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:43.640 While Philly's offense has been mediocre at best this year, 0:13:43.679 --> 0:13:49.120 Carson Wentz his completion percentage is down that obviously he 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:51.199 could have something to do with Jason Peters not playing, 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.440 but he could also be down two stars at WIDO 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:58.720 this week. Sean Jackson's already out and now also Jeffery's 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:01.240 coming up on the injury report, and that could be 0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:04.440 big trouble because then New England can just leave those 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.480 excellent that excellent secondary out on Islands and just come 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:09.880 after Wentz and the run game, and that just I 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:13.080 think it just spells trouble for Philly all night. They 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:16.080 and Philly is mostly played poorly against good teams this year, 0:14:16.120 --> 0:14:17.800 and they're three and one at home, but those wins 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:21.320 are against Washington, your Jets, and Mitchell Trubisky, who were 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:25.080 just singing his praises so so kindly. I like the 0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:27.200 pass to get them back on track this weekend cover 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:28.640 this one rather easily. 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:31.440 So this probably would have been my number one pick 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:35.240 if you weren't taking it. I think here's the only 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:37.600 thing that worries me about this. I didn't I don't 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:40.120 understand this line. I mean that the pat the Pats 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:44.080 are a hugely public team, right, I mean everything about 0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:48.360 this at that number screams to me that the Patriots 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.160 are just going to get an enormous amount of the bets, 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:53.360 an enormous amount of the money. 0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:54.040 And when I. 0:14:54.000 --> 0:14:57.440 See something like that, it makes me pause because you know, 0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.640 you see lines like that on occasion you're like, this 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:02.280 line does not make any sense. It reminds me of 0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:05.160 the Packers and the Chargers a couple of weeks ago, 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:07.440 where you know, the Packers are a really public team. 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:10.040 The line was something that said, like, Wow, the Packers 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:12.280 should pretty easily cover this, and then they got their 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:14.080 butts kicked against the Chargers. 0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:17.040 So we talked about that one in the office. That 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:18.880 was that was that seemed fishy all week to us, 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:20.960 or like why why is that like that? And then 0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:23.200 of course they put up that stinker. 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:26.120 And this one it's the same exact thing to me again, 0:15:26.240 --> 0:15:29.280 the Pats coming off the buy and coming off a loss. 0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:31.560 I mean, I don't know what their record might be 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:34.000 in the in the Belichick Brady era. I didn't even 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:35.520 know if it's happened. I wasn't able to look that up. 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:38.080 But it seems to me like this is a spot 0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:40.360 where they're just gonna come out. I'm sure you know, 0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:42.480 Brady already came out and said he's still not over 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:45.240 the Super Bowl. What I mean, They're gonna come out here. 0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:45.800 It seems. 0:15:46.040 --> 0:15:48.960 I get their offense is nowhere near what it used 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.920 to be, but still at this point, you know, given 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:55.040 them the extra time to prepare, especially given as you 0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:57.320 pointed out the problems that are going on with the 0:15:57.320 --> 0:15:59.920 Eagles right now. And look, Jeffrey, I am going to 0:15:59.960 --> 0:16:02.120 be shocked if he's gonna play at this point nothing. 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:05.480 And if not, then You're gonna put Steffan Gilmour on 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:08.360 zach Ertz, and then you're gonna be looking at Okay, 0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:11.200 Nelson Agalore go ahead out there, or Jordan Matthews, our 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:13.600 new number one wide receiver, go ahead out there and 0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:15.400 try to do something against this defense. 0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:17.280 I think that the. 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:19.400 Eagles are gonna have a lot of, you know, a 0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:22.080 difficult time scoring in this one. I think the Patriots 0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:24.280 are going to be creative enough to make this happen. 0:16:24.320 --> 0:16:26.560 I mean, Jim Schwartz loves to blitz. That's what Brady 0:16:26.600 --> 0:16:30.160 eats up. So I'm in complete agreement with you on this. 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:32.080 This one, honestly is my favorite bet of the week. 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:34.480 I admit the only thing that it gives me some 0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:35.760 pause is the fact that. 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:38.520 It seems too good to be true. 0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:41.160 But I think there's sometimes are lines like that that 0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:43.080 you're just like, well, I'm just going you know, this 0:16:43.120 --> 0:16:45.120 is I'm not gonna overanalyze at this point. 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:46.680 So I completely agree with you. 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:49.280 Maybe it's brought down a bit by the fact that 0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:52.680 this is like Peterson did do so well against that 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:55.880 Patriots team a few years ago, but these are different 0:16:55.880 --> 0:16:56.400 teams now. 0:16:56.720 --> 0:16:59.720 Yeah, No, absolutely, I'm totally with you, So I'm completely 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:01.280 on board with that one. I'm gonna stick with an 0:17:01.280 --> 0:17:03.240 over under for my second pick, and I'm gonna go 0:17:03.280 --> 0:17:06.719 with the Raiders and the Bengals over forty nine. Now, 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:10.440 the Raiders offense is really really good, kind of quietly 0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:13.120 now people are catching on to them. It really all 0:17:13.160 --> 0:17:15.960 starts with their offensive line, which has been dominant of late, 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:18.480 and Derek Carr has played really, really well because of it, 0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:21.680 although he's also played pretty well even when he's under pressure. Now, 0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:25.080 the receivers are not elite. Tyro Williams is still battling 0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:28.600 Planter Fasciatis, Hunter, Renfros improvings. A Jones is there, but 0:17:28.640 --> 0:17:30.960 it's not like any of these guys really scares you. 0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:33.560 But they have an elite running back in Josh Jacobs 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:36.679 and an elite tight end in Darren Waller. So guess what, 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:39.359 The Bengals are pretty much the worst team in the 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:42.040 league against running backs and tight end. So there are 0:17:42.040 --> 0:17:45.080