Speaker 1: Hey to everyone.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to
Speaker 2: you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You
Speaker 2: can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It
Speaker 2: is time to break down some of our favorite and
Speaker 2: our least favorite bets for the Week eleven NFL Slate.
Speaker 2: With me to talk about it all is Andrew Kayley,
Speaker 2: a senior publishing editor over at Covers. You can find
Speaker 2: him on Twitter at Covers Underscore. Kaylee. That's c. A. L. E. Y, Andrew,
Speaker 2: How is it possibly week eleven already?
Speaker 1: Where are we?
Speaker 3: I don't know. It's week twelve in college too. We're
Speaker 3: just a few weeks away from bowl games. It goes
Speaker 3: so fast, it really does.
Speaker 2: I think about it with baseball, because you know, I
Speaker 2: do a lot of baseball as well.
Speaker 1: Baseball's forever.
Speaker 2: Man Like, by the time it's over, I'm so glad
Speaker 2: it's over at this point, and with the NFL season,
Speaker 2: it's just like, where did it go?
Speaker 1: I don't you know.
Speaker 2: It's other than the fact that I'm living now in
Speaker 2: the Arctic tundra. You know, I'm up in New England,
Speaker 2: so it's freezing. Other than that, I wouldn't even understand
Speaker 2: that it's basically time to end the season.
Speaker 3: Yeah, winter just hit too. I'm even more even northeast
Speaker 3: than you up here in Atlanta, Canada, and winter hit
Speaker 3: the last two days and it did. It's cold playoffs
Speaker 3: just a couple of weeks away.
Speaker 2: So well, let's distract ourselves with some gambling advice here.
Speaker 3: I like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you guys know the drill.
Speaker 2: By now, Andrew and I are going to be giving
Speaker 2: some of our favorite and our least favorite picks for
Speaker 2: this week. But as always, let's start with a quick
Speaker 2: review of last week. I hit on the over fifty
Speaker 2: two and a half in the Bucks Cardinals game, and
Speaker 2: the under forty two and a half on the Bears
Speaker 2: and the Lions. Now I narrowly missed by a mere
Speaker 2: twenty six points on the Bengals getting ten from the Ravens,
Speaker 2: and for real, actually narrowly missed on my prop bet,
Speaker 2: which was Aaron Jones over one hundred yards rushing. He
Speaker 2: had ninety three and only got thirteen carries. Meanwhile, our
Speaker 2: guest Adam Burke nailed the heck out of that Falcons,
Speaker 2: getting thirteen from the Saints game. He basically had that
Speaker 2: game completely dead to rights from the time he started
Speaker 2: analyzing it. He also hit on the Vikings getting three
Speaker 2: from the Cowboys and Lamar Jackson over fifty nine and
Speaker 2: a half rushing yards. His only miss was on the
Speaker 2: Lions getting two and a half from the Bears, but
Speaker 2: to be fair, he had absolutely no reason to know
Speaker 2: that Jef driscoll would be starting that game. So you
Speaker 2: got some big shoes to fill here, Andrew, Are you ready.
Speaker 3: It sounds like it? I am ready, all right.
Speaker 2: So we're gonna get started as always with pick six,
Speaker 2: where we're gonna give three each of our favorite bets,
Speaker 2: either against the spread or on the over under. And
Speaker 2: again we're gonna be using the betting pros dot Com
Speaker 2: consensus odds here that's an aggregate of the odds that
Speaker 2: are available in the market. Go ahead and start us off.
Speaker 3: I promise this is not me trolling you, but this
Speaker 3: is I'm taking the Jets and now it's even moved
Speaker 3: even further in my favorite at plus two and a half,
Speaker 3: which makes me feel a little uncomfortable, but I think
Speaker 3: they're the better team still. I know, as a Jets
Speaker 3: fan you probably hate to hear that, but just with
Speaker 3: the way everything is going, and this all Adam Gase.
Speaker 3: He's back. Yeah, I saw how happy you were about that.
Speaker 3: But I think they can still win this game in
Speaker 3: spite of Gase, particularly because of their defense. They rank
Speaker 3: eleventh in the NFL in Football Outsiders DVA rankings and
Speaker 3: second against the run. And Bill Callahan insists on continuing
Speaker 3: to run the ball partly because Dwayne. He's committed to
Speaker 3: Dwayne Haskins being his quarterback and he doesn't really have
Speaker 3: any other choice. But they're really not even that good
Speaker 3: at running the football. They rank thirtieth and rushing offense Toboa,
Speaker 3: and they've only scored twenty one points with Haskins as
Speaker 3: their quarterback. That's over a three game span, I believe.
Speaker 3: And for your Jets, I still have faith in Sam Darnold.
Speaker 3: He showed some life last week and his completion percentage
Speaker 3: has improved over the last three That offensive line is
Speaker 3: kind of terrible, but I think they still have the
Speaker 3: weapons here, and like I said, in spite of Gays,
Speaker 3: hopefully like they can get the ball to Crowder quickly
Speaker 3: in some quick slants and hopefully get Leavey on Bells
Speaker 3: more touches out of the backfield. I think you could
Speaker 3: be effective in this game if they're passing the ball
Speaker 3: to them out of the backfield. He hasn't run the
Speaker 3: ball very well recently, I know that, but that's I
Speaker 3: think a product of that offensive line. But Washington is
Speaker 3: just really terrible, and I think they're gonna win this.
Speaker 3: I think they're gonna win the game out right, I
Speaker 3: just do. So give me the two and a half points,
Speaker 3: and I might even bet them on the money line
Speaker 3: this weekend.
Speaker 1: Yeah. All right, So, first of all, I don't think
Speaker 1: you're trolling me.
Speaker 2: I mean, I hope that you and I have a
Speaker 2: good relationship outside of this podcast, so I would assume
Speaker 2: that your integrity would allow you to kind of come
Speaker 2: on here and make a real pick. But I'll be honest, No,
Speaker 2: it is. Yeah, I'll be honest. I do not in
Speaker 2: any way hate this pick. It's not one of my favorites,
Speaker 2: just because I'm so tired of backing the Jets like
Speaker 2: I did against the Patriots, like I did against the Jaguars,
Speaker 2: where they come out and do absolutely nothing. The fact
Speaker 2: that it's moved to two and a half is a
Speaker 2: little surprising here, because everything I'm seeing shows that both
Speaker 2: the number of bets and the amount of money is
Speaker 2: coming in on the Jets. So the fact that it's
Speaker 2: a reverse line move makes me a little worried. But
Speaker 2: this is what I said when we looked at it
Speaker 2: on Monday, right when we looked at Sean Green and
Speaker 2: I took a look at this line when it first opened,
Speaker 2: it was one and a half, and I was surprised
Speaker 2: by it because to me, it's a completely different story
Speaker 2: with Dwayne Haskins starting at the time we looked at
Speaker 2: it Monday, I think we had just found out about it,
Speaker 2: or perhaps we found out about it shortly after that game.
Speaker 2: But Dwayne Haskins, at least to this point, has not
Speaker 2: shown anything to suggest that he is remotely capable of
Speaker 2: being an NFL quarterback at the moment. I'm not you know,
Speaker 2: I'm not giving an indict he's yeah, he's not ready yet.
Speaker 2: And I completely agree with the Redskins throwing him out
Speaker 2: there for the rest of the season because what else,
Speaker 2: I mean, at this point, who cares?
Speaker 1: You know, Let's at least let him get his feet wet.
Speaker 1: I'm try it, yeah, yeah, let's let him try it.
Speaker 2: So I think with that, it's just really difficult to
Speaker 2: see the Redskins putting up any sort of points, like
Speaker 2: consistent points in this game. You know, I could see them,
Speaker 2: you know, popping off a touchdown once in a while.
Speaker 2: Now they've had the bye week, so they may have
Speaker 2: been able to work out some of the kinks with him.
Speaker 2: But the bottom line is he's just not particularly accurate.
Speaker 2: He hasn't been reading defenses all that well. So in
Speaker 2: the end, I'm fine with it, and I think I
Speaker 2: would also. I would take it at two and a half.
Speaker 2: I would take it at one and a half as well,
Speaker 2: and a bet on the money line I did as well. Yeah,
Speaker 2: a bet on the money line isn't isn't the worst
Speaker 2: idea because frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see the
Speaker 2: Jets win this game.
Speaker 1: The big thing with the Redskins is that, Frankly.
Speaker 2: I really do think it just feels like Bill Callahan's
Speaker 2: trying to run out the clock on the season by
Speaker 2: running it NonStop legitimately, Yeah, like legitimately, and their games
Speaker 2: are taking like two hours and forty minutes or something
Speaker 2: crazy like that. So I mean I could see him
Speaker 2: just sticking with the run. And again that is the
Speaker 2: one place that the Jets are really tough on defense.
Speaker 2: They're injured up and down kind of the entire team,
Speaker 2: and they're vulnerable against the past. But again, I don't
Speaker 2: really see Haskins being able to take advantage of that.
Speaker 2: So I'm totally fine with the two and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it really stood out to me just because of
Speaker 3: those because of those reasons.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again you liked it a one and a half,
Speaker 2: So did I, and I said so on Monday, So
Speaker 2: it is going to be one of my picks. It's
Speaker 2: not probably one of my favorites, mainly because I'm just
Speaker 2: so beat down by the team.
Speaker 1: And thanks for pointing.
Speaker 2: Out that tweet, which by the way, was retweeting the
Speaker 2: announcement that Adam Gase will be back next year and
Speaker 2: then me doing the jiff of the wedding crasher singing
Speaker 2: somebody kill me please. Anyway, that's how my life kind
Speaker 2: of is as a just then. But not for my
Speaker 2: first pick. Now, I'm going to go with an over
Speaker 2: under here, which I've been having a little success, what's
Speaker 2: been on a nice run, and I'm sticking with the
Speaker 2: team that's kind of been my favorite to stick with
Speaker 2: the Unders and that's the Bears, and I'm going to
Speaker 2: take the Bears and the Rams under thirty nine and
Speaker 2: a half. So I've had the Bears under here a lot,
Speaker 2: and as I said, it's been a pretty solid bet,
Speaker 2: and I hit on it last week. And look, both
Speaker 2: these teams are solid on the under. They're both six
Speaker 2: and three on the under on the season. And it's
Speaker 2: a pretty simple explanation. You know, you don't need to
Speaker 2: be an expert to really be able to figure it out.
Speaker 2: Both teams have poor offenses, and yes, the Rams have
Speaker 2: a poor offense, and both both teams have strong defenses,
Speaker 2: relatively strong defenses, not with the Bears on offense. Look,
Speaker 2: we know all the issues with Trubisky. He had a
Speaker 2: good game against the Lions, but you really can't bank
Speaker 2: on that again, and even then they only scored twenty points. Anyway,
Speaker 2: he was like a hitter that got really hot, I
Speaker 2: think for a couple of drives, right, because he looked
Speaker 2: terrible to start off, then suddenly something clicked.
Speaker 1: I don't bank on that happening again.
Speaker 3: That's his entire career.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's true. I mean he's certainly this year
Speaker 2: he's regressed significantly, which is unfortunate, But Dave Montgomery is
Speaker 2: banked up. He's not a lock to play at this point.
Speaker 2: I think he missed practice today and he was limited
Speaker 2: after rolling his ankle the day before. And if not,
Speaker 2: I'm really not sure what they're going to do on
Speaker 2: the running game. They cut Mike Davis, Tarricohen can't really
Speaker 2: carry a regular running back load. Ryan Knall is just
Speaker 2: not going to be able to get it done. I mean,
Speaker 2: I frankly, I hope I'm pronouncing that right, because I
Speaker 2: really don't know too much about him. I don't know
Speaker 2: much either, Yeah, so that's saying enough. Plus Trey Burton
Speaker 2: is battling a thigh injury. He might even miss the game.
Speaker 2: And look, I'm just I don't think that there's any
Speaker 2: way that the Bears are going to be able to
Speaker 2: stay in anything on offense, since they haven't been able
Speaker 2: to do it all season, and especially against a Rams
Speaker 2: defense that has really improved in recent weeks, particularly since
Speaker 2: they added Jalen Ramsey, who's probably just going to take
Speaker 2: on Alan Robinson and take away Trubisky's like lone reliable
Speaker 2: wide receiver. As a whole, the defense is playing better
Speaker 2: lately Clay Matthews came back from his john jury. That
Speaker 2: gives them another added dimension. So who's going to score
Speaker 2: the points on the Rams side?
Speaker 1: I mean, the.
Speaker 2: Offense is just broken, and it starts with their offensive line, right.
Speaker 2: You know, it's Andrew Whitworth and all backups at this point.
Speaker 2: And they've been dealing with issues on the line all year.
Speaker 2: They lost their center Brian Allen last week, they lost
Speaker 2: their right tackle, Havenstein. I mean, golf's been terrible. They're
Speaker 2: down Brandon Cooks, Todd Gurley does not look the same.
Speaker 2: Their offensive line is on like their fourth backups. And
Speaker 2: remember last year when these two teams met, it was
Speaker 2: fifteen to six in favor of the Bears, right, and
Speaker 2: that was back when Goff had a decent offensive line.
Speaker 2: They intercepted him four times. Now, this Bear's defense isn't
Speaker 2: the same as that one, I will admit. I mean,
Speaker 2: Khalil Mack has not been particularly disruptive. Eddie Jackson hasn't
Speaker 2: done all that much. They're down to keep Hicks. They
Speaker 2: just lost Danny Trevathan. But still they're able to get
Speaker 2: pressure on the quarterback. And that is really what causes
Speaker 2: Gough to be unable to put up points. So thirty
Speaker 2: nine and a half. Look, it's a low number, but honestly,
Speaker 2: absent a defensive scorer or two, I just don't see
Speaker 2: how these offenses against these defenses are going to be
Speaker 2: able to read to reach that number.
Speaker 3: I really can't disagree with you on that. We have
Speaker 3: a huge Bear fan in my office, and when the
Speaker 3: number hit thirty nine and a half, I was like,
Speaker 3: I approached him, doing now with the over is thirty
Speaker 3: nine and a half the number where we can attack
Speaker 3: the over now? And he was just he just shook
Speaker 3: his head. Traubisky has clearly, like you said, regress GoF
Speaker 3: has his tune. For that matter, he only threw for you.
Speaker 3: Look at the numbers two hundred and forty three yards
Speaker 3: last week. He took him forty one attempts to get
Speaker 3: to two hundred and forty three yards. Like you said,
Speaker 3: the Bears get a lot of pressure, and once he
Speaker 3: starts moving his feet, he looked he rattles very easily
Speaker 3: and his accuracy is out the window. I can't disagree
Speaker 3: with this play raider. And also Mac also just loves
Speaker 3: I know you said he hasn't been as good this year,
Speaker 3: but he always just on primetime. You always see him
Speaker 3: much more effective in those games.
Speaker 2: It seems, honestly, it's just thirty nine and a half.
Speaker 2: It's a really low number. It's not something where I'm
Speaker 2: like jumping for joy over it. I believe the look
Speaker 2: ahead might have been forty two. So there was a
Speaker 2: ton of money that came in on the under for
Speaker 2: good reason. But honestly, I mean it was a little
Speaker 2: bit of the same thing last week with the Bears
Speaker 2: and the Lions, where the under was coming in heavy
Speaker 2: and they kept dropping the line. Doesn't really matter to me.
Speaker 2: I think there really has to be a defensive score,
Speaker 2: which is always a possibility with these two offenses at
Speaker 2: this point. But for me, I'll stick with riding the
Speaker 2: under on both these teams, which has been pretty profitable.
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to your second pick here, what
Speaker 2: do you got next pick?
Speaker 3: I'm going with the New England Patriots minus three and
Speaker 3: a half at the Philadelphia Eagles, obviously being billed as
Speaker 3: a Super Bowl rematch from a couple of years ago,
Speaker 3: but only one of these teams has a chance to
Speaker 3: get back this year. Spoiler alert, it's New England. Everybody
Speaker 3: knows that Patrick coming off a buye here and their
Speaker 3: first loss of the season. Everyone can start with their Oh,
Speaker 3: the Patriots are done. Patriots are done, YadA, YadA, YadA.
Speaker 3: But they have to win two games and they'll be
Speaker 3: back in the super Bowl, So I'm not too stressed
Speaker 3: about it. Belichick loves losing a game. I think now
Speaker 3: these last couple of years to kind of motivate his
Speaker 3: guys a little more. And anytime you're gonna give Belichick
Speaker 3: an extra week off to prepare for another team, that's
Speaker 3: trouble for that team. They are fifteen and four coming
Speaker 3: out of a buy in the Belichick era, only ten
Speaker 3: to eight and one against the spread in those games.
Speaker 3: The Eagles have a good rush defense, one of the
Speaker 3: better in the league, but that doesn't matter. The Patriots
Speaker 3: only run to, I don't know, trick people every once
Speaker 3: in a while that we're not gonna throw the ball
Speaker 3: one hundred times a game, and that's gonna set up
Speaker 3: well against an Eagle sect that just hasn't been very good.
Speaker 3: They have allowed at least one hundred yard receiver in
Speaker 3: seven of their nine games this year. I think Edelman
Speaker 3: and Muhammed Sanu could have some big games here Edelman
Speaker 3: has been hauling a bunch of catches week after week.
Speaker 3: It seems like he's a guy that's another guy you
Speaker 3: can look at as a quick prop back to take
Speaker 3: his over on reception totals, because he just seems to
Speaker 3: go over every week. And he got an extra week
Speaker 3: to rest his ailing hip, and it was another week
Speaker 3: for Snow to learn the Josh McDaniels offense. Sanu was
Speaker 3: on the field for one hundred percent of the Patriots plays.
Speaker 3: That's just kind of in his just in their last game,
Speaker 3: so you can tell how much the Patriots like this guy.
Speaker 3: And I think he could have another big week here.
Speaker 3: While Philly's offense has been mediocre at best this year,
Speaker 3: Carson Wentz his completion percentage is down that obviously he
Speaker 3: could have something to do with Jason Peters not playing,
Speaker 3: but he could also be down two stars at WIDO
Speaker 3: this week. Sean Jackson's already out and now also Jeffery's
Speaker 3: coming up on the injury report, and that could be
Speaker 3: big trouble because then New England can just leave those
Speaker 3: excellent that excellent secondary out on Islands and just come
Speaker 3: after Wentz and the run game, and that just I
Speaker 3: think it just spells trouble for Philly all night. They
Speaker 3: and Philly is mostly played poorly against good teams this year,
Speaker 3: and they're three and one at home, but those wins
Speaker 3: are against Washington, your Jets, and Mitchell Trubisky, who were
Speaker 3: just singing his praises so so kindly. I like the
Speaker 3: pass to get them back on track this weekend cover
Speaker 3: this one rather easily.
Speaker 2: So this probably would have been my number one pick
Speaker 2: if you weren't taking it. I think here's the only
Speaker 2: thing that worries me about this. I didn't I don't
Speaker 2: understand this line. I mean that the pat the Pats
Speaker 2: are a hugely public team, right, I mean everything about
Speaker 2: this at that number screams to me that the Patriots
Speaker 2: are just going to get an enormous amount of the bets,
Speaker 2: an enormous amount of the money.
Speaker 1: And when I.
Speaker 2: See something like that, it makes me pause because you know,
Speaker 2: you see lines like that on occasion you're like, this
Speaker 2: line does not make any sense. It reminds me of
Speaker 2: the Packers and the Chargers a couple of weeks ago,
Speaker 2: where you know, the Packers are a really public team.
Speaker 2: The line was something that said, like, Wow, the Packers
Speaker 2: should pretty easily cover this, and then they got their
Speaker 2: butts kicked against the Chargers.
Speaker 3: So we talked about that one in the office. That
Speaker 3: was that was that seemed fishy all week to us,
Speaker 3: or like why why is that like that? And then
Speaker 3: of course they put up that stinker.
Speaker 2: And this one it's the same exact thing to me again,
Speaker 2: the Pats coming off the buy and coming off a loss.
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know what their record might be
Speaker 2: in the in the Belichick Brady era. I didn't even
Speaker 2: know if it's happened. I wasn't able to look that up.
Speaker 2: But it seems to me like this is a spot
Speaker 2: where they're just gonna come out. I'm sure you know,
Speaker 2: Brady already came out and said he's still not over
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. What I mean, They're gonna come out here.
Speaker 1: It seems.
Speaker 2: I get their offense is nowhere near what it used
Speaker 2: to be, but still at this point, you know, given
Speaker 2: them the extra time to prepare, especially given as you
Speaker 2: pointed out the problems that are going on with the
Speaker 2: Eagles right now. And look, Jeffrey, I am going to
Speaker 2: be shocked if he's gonna play at this point nothing.
Speaker 2: And if not, then You're gonna put Steffan Gilmour on
Speaker 2: zach Ertz, and then you're gonna be looking at Okay,
Speaker 2: Nelson Agalore go ahead out there, or Jordan Matthews, our
Speaker 2: new number one wide receiver, go ahead out there and
Speaker 2: try to do something against this defense.
Speaker 1: I think that the.
Speaker 2: Eagles are gonna have a lot of, you know, a
Speaker 2: difficult time scoring in this one. I think the Patriots
Speaker 2: are going to be creative enough to make this happen.
Speaker 2: I mean, Jim Schwartz loves to blitz. That's what Brady
Speaker 2: eats up. So I'm in complete agreement with you on this.
Speaker 2: This one, honestly is my favorite bet of the week.
Speaker 2: I admit the only thing that it gives me some
Speaker 2: pause is the fact that.
Speaker 1: It seems too good to be true.
Speaker 2: But I think there's sometimes are lines like that that
Speaker 2: you're just like, well, I'm just going you know, this
Speaker 2: is I'm not gonna overanalyze at this point.
Speaker 1: So I completely agree with you.
Speaker 3: Maybe it's brought down a bit by the fact that
Speaker 3: this is like Peterson did do so well against that
Speaker 3: Patriots team a few years ago, but these are different
Speaker 3: teams now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, absolutely, I'm totally with you, So I'm completely
Speaker 2: on board with that one. I'm gonna stick with an
Speaker 2: over under for my second pick, and I'm gonna go
Speaker 2: with the Raiders and the Bengals over forty nine. Now,
Speaker 2: the Raiders offense is really really good, kind of quietly
Speaker 2: now people are catching on to them. It really all
Speaker 2: starts with their offensive line, which has been dominant of late,
Speaker 2: and Derek Carr has played really, really well because of it,
Speaker 2: although he's also played pretty well even when he's under pressure. Now,
Speaker 2: the receivers are not elite. Tyro Williams is still battling
Speaker 2: Planter Fasciatis, Hunter, Renfros improvings. A Jones is there, but
Speaker 2: it's not like any of these guys really scares you.
Speaker 2: But they have an elite running back in Josh Jacobs
Speaker 2: and an elite tight end in Darren Waller. So guess what,
Speaker 2: The Bengals are pretty much the worst team in the
Speaker 2: league against running backs and tight end. So there are
Speaker 2: gonna be plenty of points for the Raiders in this one.
Speaker 2: But I honestly think in this one, I don't know,
Speaker 2: might be you know, kind of a hot take. I
Speaker 2: guess I think the Bengals are going to put up
Speaker 2: quite a few points in this game too. I get
Speaker 2: that Ryan Finley's numbers were not great against Baltimore, far
Speaker 2: from it, but I watched a lot of that game
Speaker 2: and I kind of mildly impressed with him. I know
Speaker 2: his numbers weren't good and he threw that horrible pick six,
Speaker 2: but that's a really, really difficult defense, and he was
Speaker 2: able to move the ball kind of up and down
Speaker 2: the field pretty easily. And the Oakland pass defense is
Speaker 2: just kind of non existent. Put aside Philip rivers terrible
Speaker 2: game last week, it's just not a solid defense. The
Speaker 2: run defense is better. I think it's a little overrated,
Speaker 2: but it's better. But Joe Mixon got thirty carries last week,
Speaker 2: so in a game where they were getting blown out, right,
Speaker 2: So if the coaching staff is finally going to heavily
Speaker 2: rely on their best offensive player, then I think that
Speaker 2: probably pourtens good things for their offense. So in the end,
Speaker 2: I see a ton of points from the Raiders. I
Speaker 2: see enough from the Bengals to get here. So you know,
Speaker 2: forty nine's a high, not crazy high, but a high
Speaker 2: over under. But I still think that they're going to
Speaker 2: clear it and get into the fifties, so give me
Speaker 2: the Raiders and the Bengals over forty nine.
Speaker 3: Had no arguments for me there. This kind of leads
Speaker 3: into my prop bet coming up, so I can't really
Speaker 3: disagree too much. And Ryan Finley, I agree with you.
Speaker 3: I really liked him at enc State. He had a
Speaker 3: lot of hit, a lot of potential coming into the draft,
Speaker 3: and I think he could be a capable NFL quarterback.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I get that, you know, sort of
Speaker 2: people were talking that, you know, how bad he was,
Speaker 2: But again, that was one of the games. You know,
Speaker 2: I have a bunch of games on Sunday. I try
Speaker 2: to watch, you know, three or four of them at
Speaker 2: once and then also have read zone on another thing.
Speaker 2: But that game I was watching closely because I really
Speaker 2: wanted to see how it was. And again, the Ravens
Speaker 2: defense is great, so you know, it wasn't like he
Speaker 2: was amazing or anything like that. But I think it
Speaker 2: was a little overblown because I do think that he
Speaker 2: showed some good things. So I'm a little mildly bit
Speaker 2: of a believer in the guy as to having an
Speaker 2: NFL career. So we'll see about that. But I look
Speaker 2: forward to hearing your prop bet because mine might also
Speaker 2: be from that game. But we'll see where we end up.
Speaker 1: Now.
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Speaker 2: All right, Andrew, let's get on to your third pick.
Speaker 1: What do you got for number three?
Speaker 3: I'm joining you with a total here and I'm going
Speaker 3: to go over fifty two in this weekend's game in
Speaker 3: Mexico City between the Chiefs and Chargers and hopefully it
Speaker 3: returns there. The reports are that the field is in
Speaker 3: good shape after last year's game was canceled or moved
Speaker 3: I guess at the last minute, but with the air
Speaker 3: that then the elevation there is about seventy two hundred
Speaker 3: feet for reference, for those who don't know Denver, which
Speaker 3: is the mile high city is fifty one hundred feet,
Speaker 3: so that's two thousand more feet in Mexico City, and
Speaker 3: I just I think there's going to be a ton
Speaker 3: of points scored in this game. The Chargers have been
Speaker 3: practicing at the Air Force Facility this week and that
Speaker 3: has an elevation of six thousand feet. But to me,
Speaker 3: all that says is that you need to take the
Speaker 3: thin air seriously, and I think it will end up
Speaker 3: benefiting the offenses in the long run. I think those
Speaker 3: defenses will gas faster, and I think that there will
Speaker 3: be an opportunity for plenty of points. Mahomes looked like
Speaker 3: his old self last week. Three tds four hundred and
Speaker 3: fifty yards against what was supposed to be at least
Speaker 3: a decent Titans defense. Put up thirty two points in
Speaker 3: that loss, thirty to twenty five loss of the Titans.
Speaker 3: That's not really his fault, but now he faces a
Speaker 3: Chargers defense that ranks twenty sixth at DBOA. Casey Hayward
Speaker 3: has struggled this year and that second or just isn't
Speaker 3: the same without Derwin James, like they need him to
Speaker 3: be effective, like Joey Bosa will obviously be disruptive at points,
Speaker 3: but Mahomes show that he is capable, at least right
Speaker 3: now on that knee, to still move around that pocket
Speaker 3: a little bit. And for the Chargers offense, they have
Speaker 3: the exact weapons that you need to attack the Chiefs defense,
Speaker 3: and that's two talented backs. Melvin Gordon looks like he
Speaker 3: it took him, like he had a training camp. He
Speaker 3: had four weeks where he was terrible and they were
Speaker 3: feet on the ball and it just didn't work. But
Speaker 3: now the last two weeks he's been much better and
Speaker 3: they've given him twenty plus touches a game. And then
Speaker 3: Austin Eckler will be able to take advantage of a
Speaker 3: Chiefs defense that have struggled with passing yards against running backs.
Speaker 3: So I just I think both teams have the ability
Speaker 3: to score in this game, and I think fifty two
Speaker 3: is I think this number is also just going to
Speaker 3: go up the closer it gets to game time, So
Speaker 3: jump on it as soon as you can.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got no problem whatsoever with that pick.
Speaker 2: I mean, I think that I'd be shocked if this
Speaker 2: isn't a huge scoring game. My one concern if I
Speaker 2: was to raise a concern, and it's more Devil's advocate
Speaker 2: is that you may thanks in the games that you
Speaker 2: know the Chiefs have struggled a little bit, or that
Speaker 2: you know when they first looked unstoppab before Mahomes got
Speaker 2: injured and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: You know, the key to.
Speaker 2: Kind of winning those games was to run the ball
Speaker 2: NonStop against their extremely weak run defense and that choose
Speaker 2: up clock in the way to not allow Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 2: to jump back onto the field and score in thirty seconds,
Speaker 2: right you want to keep him off the field as
Speaker 2: much as possible. You make a great point. Gordon is
Speaker 2: running extremely well right now, essentially like he had his
Speaker 2: training camp. Is there any concern though for you in
Speaker 2: thinking about the over that the Chargers just come out
Speaker 2: and just basically ball control the heck out of this
Speaker 2: thing and just basically say we're going to keep that
Speaker 2: defense on the field for as long as possible. We're
Speaker 2: gonna have these really really long drives relying on the run.
Speaker 2: Because that is my only concern and one of the
Speaker 2: reasons why it wasn't one of my picks.
Speaker 1: I like the over. I think that it's gonna get better.
Speaker 2: I agree that it's the number is going to go
Speaker 2: up because especially in Mexico City.
Speaker 1: But that was my one concern about.
Speaker 3: That, is it conceivable that the Chiefs run defense is
Speaker 3: so bad that it'll be like a fast paced offense.
Speaker 2: Uh, that's actually a fair point. And you know the
Speaker 2: thing about Gordon by the way last week against the Raiders,
Speaker 2: he must have been hit in the backfield on like
Speaker 2: half of his runs, right, and he just like willed
Speaker 2: himself to getting free and stuff like that. So he
Speaker 2: will certainly gain chunk yards on a lot of those runs.
Speaker 2: And again, to me, I don't really think it matters
Speaker 2: because I think Mahomes is capable of you know, leading
Speaker 2: a two minute you know, scoring drive on any given point.
Speaker 2: You have a short slant to you know, Tyreek killer
Speaker 2: McCole Hardman, who you know took that pass last week
Speaker 2: where he was basically in the grasp of two guys
Speaker 2: and he just like turned on the after does and
Speaker 2: just ran right past them so they could score at will.
Speaker 2: So I agree, I'm going to take the over when
Speaker 2: I make my picks on bettingpros dot com.
Speaker 1: That was the only reason why I got a little
Speaker 1: worried about it.
Speaker 3: You know what, I'm saying, yeah, could you tell he
Speaker 3: was happy to have Hill back though, like that was
Speaker 3: the first time they were like that, that offense was
Speaker 3: fully healthy since like minute five of a week one
Speaker 3: he targeted eighteen times or something like that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well it shows you, unfortunately, how bad the defense
Speaker 2: is considering they still lost that game despite the fact
Speaker 2: that they were dominant, although they should have won of course.
Speaker 2: All Right, for my final pick, I'm going to get
Speaker 2: off the over unders and I'm gonna take a spread,
Speaker 2: and that is the Bills laying six and a half
Speaker 2: to the Dolphins. Now I got this on bettingpros dot
Speaker 2: com when it was six. The line has moved up
Speaker 2: a bit. I'm still gonna take it as long as
Speaker 2: it's under a touchdown. So I think the Dolphins are
Speaker 2: justifiably getting some backing lately from betters. They've won two straight.
Speaker 2: I think they might have covered their last five games.
Speaker 2: They're clearly not tanking at this point. But I just
Speaker 2: don't think that the Dolphins are a very good football team,
Speaker 2: despite the fact that they have beaten the Jets, one
Speaker 2: of the worst teams in football, and the Colts with
Speaker 2: Brian Hoyer and no t Y Hilton. So look, they
Speaker 2: don't have Xavin Howard anymore, they don't have Kenyan Drake,
Speaker 2: they don't even have Mark Walton anymore. They don't have
Speaker 2: Preston Williams. And I get it. We can't rely on
Speaker 2: them intentionally tanking anymore. That was sort of the big thing.
Speaker 2: They might put up a fight in the first half,
Speaker 2: and the second half they literally just be like, wait, wait,
Speaker 2: we don't want to win this game. So that though,
Speaker 2: does not change the fact that they're just not particularly
Speaker 2: talented and it's hard to see them doing much offensively
Speaker 2: against the Bills that has a pretty elite pass defense.
Speaker 2: I mean, they pressure at the quarterback regularly, they have
Speaker 2: very good cornerbacks. They're week at the running defense right
Speaker 2: that's definitely where you attack them. And the Dolphins have
Speaker 2: Klin Bilage. He was awful last week in a featured role.
Speaker 2: He's been awful all season. He is the irresistible force
Speaker 2: of running back futility over there. I mean, and offensively,
Speaker 2: the Bills are not great, but they can move the ball.
Speaker 2: John Brown's consistent Devin Singletary is getting more work. They'll
Speaker 2: score enough points and probably at a defensive score against
Speaker 2: Ryan Fitzpatrick at this point. I mean, this was a
Speaker 2: seventeen point spread a few weeks back. I don't see
Speaker 2: the teams being all that much different now. The Bills
Speaker 2: are coming off a loss. They're probably angry. So for
Speaker 2: me under a touchdown, I'm gonna take this one.
Speaker 3: Well, I get to counter you here in our best
Speaker 3: to avoid because I'm not touching it.
Speaker 2: Oh okay, all right, well that is gonna I'll recap
Speaker 2: that in a second, but then let's move on. It's
Speaker 2: a trap because that sounds like where you're going is
Speaker 2: this year. It's a trap and avoid this game I'm
Speaker 2: going to it's a oh no, go ahead, go ahead counter.
Speaker 3: For everything you said, I think this line is probably
Speaker 3: a little lower than it should be because of this
Speaker 3: recent success. The Dolphins are for inexplicably the best bet
Speaker 3: over the They haven't not covered or spread since thereby,
Speaker 3: I think, well, the Bill's defense is good, touch overrated
Speaker 3: just a touch and the offense you're putting faith in
Speaker 3: Josh Allen to cover at least a mediocre number, not
Speaker 3: a huge number. But I just I am very much
Speaker 3: on the Josh Allen still hasn't proven anything to me
Speaker 3: kind of train I want to see more from him.
Speaker 3: He's still inaccurate. He's obviously very talented running the football,
Speaker 3: but it just makes me. He makes me so uncomfortable.
Speaker 3: He might be the new Marcus Mariota for me. I
Speaker 3: know that might be a little blasphemous, but sorry, Bill's Mafia.
Speaker 3: They probably should have lost the Dolphins a few weeks ago,
Speaker 3: and they're only scoring eighteen, like just over eighteen and
Speaker 3: a half points when they're on the road and you
Speaker 3: want them to cover almost a touchdown, I guess the
Speaker 3: number is going to be really important. Maybe at six
Speaker 3: and lower. I'd say the Bills six and a half
Speaker 3: are higher, maybe the Fins. So maybe that's one of
Speaker 3: the reasons I'm staying away. But these, like you said,
Speaker 3: they're clearly not tanking anymore. Maybe maybe Flores wants Chase
Speaker 3: Young instead of one of those quarterbacks because Ryan Fitzpatrick
Speaker 3: thinks he has a job in the future. I guess
Speaker 3: he just is just gonna keep throwing footballs until people
Speaker 3: tell him to not throw footballs. The Bills. Your logic
Speaker 3: is one hundred percent correct. The Bills should win, they
Speaker 3: should cover. I just I can't I can't put I
Speaker 3: can't put the faith in Josh Allen.
Speaker 2: So I hate to support your argument in any way,
Speaker 2: but I will say this. On bettingpros dot com, one
Speaker 2: of the things that you can do is you can
Speaker 2: look at you know, there are hundreds of experts that
Speaker 2: you know, or over one hundred experts that put in
Speaker 2: their picks onto the site, and right now there are
Speaker 2: fifty two of them and there will be more as
Speaker 2: it goes on that have put in their picks. At
Speaker 2: some point this week it is fifty percent on Buffalo
Speaker 2: and fifty percent on Miami. Well that's fine. How are
Speaker 2: the most accurate experts doing the top twenty percent of experts?
Speaker 2: How are they picking that game? Because you can see
Speaker 2: that on bettingpros dot com too, Well, fifty percent are
Speaker 2: taking Buffalo and fifty percent are taking Miami. That's the
Speaker 2: definition of a game you avoid. But you know what,
Speaker 2: I don't care. I'm that's fine. I'll be one of
Speaker 2: the ones who's going with it. Yeah, look I get it.
Speaker 1: And I want to be clear.
Speaker 2: First of all, please don't piss off Bill's mafia because
Speaker 2: they are they are tough.
Speaker 1: They are tough. I went to school in Buffalo.
Speaker 2: You don't want to get on their bad side, but
Speaker 2: I agree, I do not have faith in Josh Allen
Speaker 2: as a passer. I mean, he has done nothing to
Speaker 2: you know, cure my concerns about him in the preseason
Speaker 2: that he's incredibly inaccurate. But I really think that they
Speaker 2: can still move the ball up and down the field,
Speaker 2: relying primarily on their run, you know, getting enough to
Speaker 2: John Brown or short passes to Colbizy or something like that.
Speaker 2: I don't expect them to put up a ton of
Speaker 2: points here. I wouldn't argue with an under necessarily, but
Speaker 2: I really think in the end it's gonna just be
Speaker 2: way too tough for the Dolphins to put up points here. Again,
Speaker 2: I like their pass defense. I mean, it sounds like
Speaker 2: you're not quite as high on it as I am.
Speaker 1: I really like it.
Speaker 2: I think their run defense is super vulnerable, and again
Speaker 2: that that's the only thing the Dolphins cannot do I
Speaker 2: mean at all, is run the ball whatsoever.
Speaker 1: I mean.
Speaker 2: And again, I think the loss of Preston Williams is
Speaker 2: a big one. And you know they played with a
Speaker 2: him last week. But you know, MIKEASICKI whatever, Devanta Parker's
Speaker 2: had a fine season.
Speaker 1: But really for me, that.
Speaker 3: Was a good pronunciation. I would have messed that up.
Speaker 2: Oh thanks, man. I pride myself on pronunciations. That's why
Speaker 2: we will messed up on the Bears backup running back there.
Speaker 2: But yeah, look in the end, I get it, and
Speaker 2: obviously you know the consensus of the experts are with
Speaker 2: you too. But for me, if for no, if you're
Speaker 2: under a touchdown, so you said, you know, six and
Speaker 2: a half or over now under a touchdown, for me,
Speaker 2: I'm fine once it gets the seven, if it gets there,
Speaker 2: which I don't necessarily think it will. If it gets
Speaker 2: to seven, i'm out. I don't want the full touchdown
Speaker 2: or something like that. But if you're below the key
Speaker 2: number of seven, I'm really okay taking them for me,
Speaker 2: So I think you know I'm gonna go with that.
Speaker 2: So look, we jumped ahead to it's a trap. But
Speaker 2: let me very quickly recap what we did in pick six.
Speaker 2: You are going to be taking the Pats laying three
Speaker 2: and a half against the Eagles, and the Jets are
Speaker 2: getting two and a half against the Redskins, the Pats
Speaker 2: laying three and a half against the Eagles, and the
Speaker 2: Chiefs and the Chargers over fifty two on Monday night
Speaker 2: in Mexico City. I'm going to be taking the Bears
Speaker 2: and the Rams under thirty nine and a half, the
Speaker 2: Raiders and the Bengals over forty nine, and the Bills
Speaker 2: laying six and a half against the Dolphins. But you
Speaker 2: have already given your it's a trap, so I get
Speaker 2: to now give mine, and mine is I'm going to
Speaker 2: avoid the Vikings laying ten and a half to the
Speaker 2: bronc That's a really, really big number and you look
Speaker 2: at it, and the Vikings should easily win this game.
Speaker 2: But they're coming off this huge win against the Cowboys
Speaker 2: in primetime on Sunday Night. They've got a buy next week.
Speaker 2: It's certainly a spot where they could easily just like
Speaker 2: look past it and be like, all right, we're gonna
Speaker 2: just easily take care of business here against the Broncos.
Speaker 2: We've got the relaxation by coming up, and then we'll
Speaker 2: get forward going, you know, finishing out the season strong.
Speaker 2: They're also most likely to still down Adam Thielen here.
Speaker 2: He hasn't been ruled out. There's a chance, I believe
Speaker 2: is the quote I heard that he could play, but
Speaker 2: I highly doubt he's gonna suit up here. Meanwhile, on
Speaker 2: the other side of the Broncos defense continues to play
Speaker 2: relatively well. Brendon Allen wasn't great, but he managed the
Speaker 2: game okay in a game that they won last week.
Speaker 2: Now they're off a bye, They've had the extra week
Speaker 2: to prepare for this, So I could see some value
Speaker 2: here in the Broncos getting a number that high, But
Speaker 2: the Vikings are just such a better team, and I
Speaker 2: just cannot get behind a team like the Broncos playing
Speaker 2: on the road, who probably can't take advantage of the
Speaker 2: big deficiency in the Vikings past defense with Brandon Allen
Speaker 2: as quarterback.
Speaker 1: So for me ten and a half, when you get.
Speaker 2: A spread like that, I always look at the team
Speaker 2: getting the points, and again last week kind of showed
Speaker 2: you why Atlantic came out there and really did a number.
Speaker 2: But for me, it's just not something where I would
Speaker 2: feel comfortable taking the Broncos. So it's a game I'm
Speaker 2: running away from entirely.
Speaker 3: Do you believe in Kirk Cousins yet?
Speaker 2: Look, I did I say something negative about Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 2: Are you just asking any generic sets?
Speaker 3: No, you didn't, just the general generic Kirk Cousins is
Speaker 3: not good kind of analysis. It's an I have personally,
Speaker 3: I have been shocked about his play. Seventy one percent
Speaker 3: completion percentage, seventeen hundred yards, fifteen dutchhdowns, one interception in
Speaker 3: his last six games or something like that, five six games.
Speaker 3: It's been shocking.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's been good to see them open
Speaker 2: up the offense a little bit and rely a little
Speaker 2: bit more in the past, although you know they don't
Speaker 2: always need to.
Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook is such a stud.
Speaker 2: I certainly was never as down on Kirk Cousins as
Speaker 2: I felt like most people were.
Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like a guy like.
Speaker 2: Cousins, we've seen enough to know he's a quality NFL quarterback.
Speaker 2: And perhaps again it's me as a Jets fan, where
Speaker 2: you have a lifetime of watching, you know, these are
Speaker 2: quarterbacks that really can't play the position that when you
Speaker 2: see someone like Cousins, you're like, oh, yeah, that guy
Speaker 2: can totally run an offense without any problems.
Speaker 1: So look, whatever they're doing.
Speaker 2: I really like, if I was forced to take one,
Speaker 2: I mean, I'd probably take the Vikings just because I
Speaker 2: really don't feel confident right now in the Broncos' ability
Speaker 2: to score despite what they did in their last game.
Speaker 1: But for me, this is a trap.
Speaker 3: It's a lot of points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's too many points for me to feel comfortable.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: So you are avoiding the Bills giving six and a
Speaker 2: half to the Dolphins, I'm avoiding the Vikings laying ten
Speaker 2: and a half against the Broncos. Now, before we get
Speaker 2: to our final segment, I want to remind everyone about
Speaker 2: our giveaway. It is a signed Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland
Speaker 2: Brown's helmet, and our contest is running through November thirtieth,
Speaker 2: so you still have a little bit to enter. Now.
Speaker 2: You can go to betting pros dot com slash contest
Speaker 2: for more details. But if you want to enter, just
Speaker 2: leave a review for the show on Apple Podcasts or
Speaker 2: Stitcher and send a screenshot of that review to contest
Speaker 2: at bettingpros dot com now. An entry into this contest
Speaker 2: gets you automatically entered into all future contests, So if
Speaker 2: you've entered a previous contest, you're automatically entered into this one.
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Speaker 2: let's finish up with our topprop and I believe you
Speaker 2: mentioned that it's coming from the Raiders Bengals game, so
Speaker 2: go ahead.
Speaker 3: Hey it is. It's that elite running back you mentioned,
Speaker 3: Josh Jacobs. He's I haven't seen any official numbers on
Speaker 3: the board, but I've seen an at least prop on
Speaker 3: the board for ninety six yards and then you can
Speaker 3: kind of make the assumption that that's usually about eight
Speaker 3: and a half to ten percent higher than the total
Speaker 3: will be. So I'm going to take Josh shape It
Speaker 3: Gibs to go over eighty nine and a half rushing
Speaker 3: yards this week, and for me, this one's pretty simple.
Speaker 3: You broke down the Bengals pretty quickly, one of the
Speaker 3: worst rush defenses in the league. They're allowing one hundred
Speaker 3: and seventy three yards per game on the ground and
Speaker 3: ranked twenty ninth in DVOA and not only giving up
Speaker 3: but a lot of yards. They're giving up a lot
Speaker 3: of yards in bunches. Sixteen plays of twenty or more
Speaker 3: this season, and the Raiders are just going to run
Speaker 3: the ball up there. That's the game plan. They have
Speaker 3: one of the like you said, like you also mentioned,
Speaker 3: they have one of the best offensive lines in football,
Speaker 3: surprisingly to me, and Jacobs is averaging nearly twenty attempts
Speaker 3: per game and ninety yards per game. I just I
Speaker 3: am excited to back this one wholeheartedly, Josh Shacobs. I
Speaker 3: think he's gonna break a big one and go over
Speaker 3: this one. We'll say in like the third quarter.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is a great one. But let
Speaker 2: me let me ask you something, all right. Let me so,
Speaker 2: I'm looking at at points bet right now now they
Speaker 2: offer kind of the at least this, So I'm gonna
Speaker 2: give you the odds. I'm gonna give you the vig
Speaker 2: So you tell me which one is your favorite. You
Speaker 2: can get him at seventy five or more rushing yards
Speaker 2: at minus two sixty four. So that's a pretty big,
Speaker 2: big prize right there. You can get him to go
Speaker 2: over one hundred rushing yards at minus one oh six.
Speaker 2: You can get him to go over one hundred and
Speaker 2: twenty five rushing yards for plus two forty, or you
Speaker 2: can get him at over one hundred and fifty rushing
Speaker 2: yards at plus four to twenty five. Out of curiosity,
Speaker 2: which one of those is your favorite?
Speaker 3: The responsible better in me says the one hundred yards
Speaker 3: at the minus one oh six or whatever that was.
Speaker 3: But if if he's gonna go over, I think he's
Speaker 3: gonna he might go way over. And that led almost
Speaker 3: four and a half to one at plus one fifty,
Speaker 3: like that might just be worth a little sprinkle.
Speaker 1: I love it. I love it.
Speaker 2: I'd probably go one twenty five. I'd split the baby
Speaker 2: at plus two forty and I'd take it there because
Speaker 2: I do think he's gonna get there. Because I completely
Speaker 2: agree they're gonna win this game pretty handily and they're
Speaker 2: gonna rely on him all day long. And he he
Speaker 2: is great man, he is really he's a future. Yeah,
Speaker 2: he is just he runs hard, he's he's just really good.
Speaker 2: And again, as we talked about, they have a great
Speaker 2: offensive line so I love the bet completely. Now I
Speaker 2: am going to stick in that game, and I'm gonna
Speaker 2: go on the other side of the ball, and I'm
Speaker 2: gonna go with Joe Mixon to go over seventy five
Speaker 2: rushing yards at minus one thirteen. So, as I mentioned,
Speaker 2: Mixing got thirty carries last week in a game in
Speaker 2: which the Bengals were blown out from the word go right,
Speaker 2: I mean they had the touchdown to Mark Andrews in
Speaker 2: like thirty seconds.
Speaker 1: That was just done. The game was over.
Speaker 2: So whether they're just trying to protect Ryan Finley or
Speaker 2: whether or not, it's kind of a new philosophy here
Speaker 2: where they're gonna rely more heavily on the run. I
Speaker 2: think you're going to see a ton of work for
Speaker 2: mix In, regardless of what the score is. And if
Speaker 2: he sees twenty to twenty five carries, he's easily going
Speaker 2: to surpass seventy five yards, even with the fact that
Speaker 2: they have a terrible offensive line, and even with the
Speaker 2: fact that the Raiders have done a pretty good job
Speaker 2: of holding opposing running backs in check. As I said,
Speaker 2: I don't really believe that the Oakland Rush defense is elite.
Speaker 2: I think it's far more about the fact that their
Speaker 2: pass defense is just terrible, and I think that that's
Speaker 2: really where you attack them. I think you can still
Speaker 2: attack them generally on the run. And again, seventy five
Speaker 2: yards is not a huge number, and it's only minus
Speaker 2: one thirteen. You looked at what we said, Jacobs was
Speaker 2: minus one oh six at one hundred yards, So if
Speaker 2: you can get mix in at seventy five yards at
Speaker 2: minus one thirteen again, between the two, I think Jacobs
Speaker 2: is like the lock.
Speaker 1: Of the week.
Speaker 2: Frankly, whichever way you go over one hundred, great, I
Speaker 2: think that's going to be there. But in this one, Honestly,
Speaker 2: even though I expect the Raiders to win, I'm fairly
Speaker 2: confident that Mixon is going to get the workload to
Speaker 2: allow him to pretty easily.
Speaker 1: Surpass seventy five rushing yards.
Speaker 3: No complaints for me.
Speaker 1: I love it.
Speaker 2: We're on the same game even so, you know, you
Speaker 2: and I can watch that and we can you know,
Speaker 2: message each other and hopefully not be both pretty happy
Speaker 2: at the amount of apure that. Yeah, absolutely, all right,
Speaker 2: that's gonna do it for today's show. Thanks again for
Speaker 2: joining me, and to remind everyone where they can find
Speaker 2: more of you.
Speaker 1: And your work.
Speaker 3: You can find me at covers dot com and on
Speaker 3: Twitter at Covers Underscore Kayley. We also have a brand
Speaker 3: new app that's that you can download and test out.
Speaker 3: It's great for bet tracking line moves and we've got
Speaker 3: these cool things called sweat alerts. So if you set
Speaker 3: a line and your team is only covering by a
Speaker 3: point or so, you're gonna get an alert and be like, hey,
Speaker 3: maybe go hedge this bet somewhere else. And it's just
Speaker 3: a cool little thing you need to go and check out.
Speaker 1: That's awesome.
Speaker 2: Well, that honestly sounds like a really great thing for
Speaker 2: better So everybody definitely go check that out and make
Speaker 2: sure to follow Andrews a great follow on Twitter. So
Speaker 2: thanks again for coming on, man, I really really appreciate it.
Speaker 3: No problem, I'm happy to be all right.
Speaker 2: I want to remind everyone about bet mgm, where you
Speaker 2: can get a risk free five hundred dollars bet when
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Speaker 2: dot com to be entered into our Odell Beckham Junior
Speaker 2: signed helmet giveaway. Good luck with your wagers this week
Speaker 2: and my friends, we'll be back breaking down the early
Speaker 2: lines for week twelve on Monday