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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, and it is good.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast World Series Best Bets

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Speaker 1: Special Edition. I'm Colin Wichard, joined today by our MLB

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Speaker 1: betting experts Sean Zarillo and b J. Cunningham. As a reminder,

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Speaker 1: all odds today are courtesy of bet MGM, the official

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Speaker 1: odds provider of the Action Network podcast. Guys, we finally

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Speaker 1: made it. After months of blood, sweat, and years I

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Speaker 1: guess kind of by the teams, but more importantly by us.

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Speaker 1: While we're gambling, we finally reached the World Series Astros

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Speaker 1: Versus Braves starting Tuesday night eight oh eight pm Eastern

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Speaker 1: Time on Fox. The Astros minus one forty five favorites

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Speaker 1: against the Braves at plus one point twenty underdogs. How

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Speaker 1: pumped are you, guys to finally be here at the

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Speaker 1: end of the road.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this has been a great playoffs so far.

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Speaker 2: We'll disappoint in my Red Sox just decided to stop

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Speaker 2: hitting after three games. But you know, I mean, we

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Speaker 2: have pretty much the ale favorite coming in in the Astros,

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Speaker 2: and then we have the underdog story with Braves. Let's

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Speaker 2: see if they can finally break the Atlanta curse and

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Speaker 2: bring a championship home to Atlanta.

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Speaker 3: Oh, and I'm just really relieved.

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Speaker 4: I had futures on every AL team except for Boston,

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Speaker 4: and futures on the NL teams except for the Dodgers

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Speaker 4: and the Giants, So my worst case scenario was a

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Speaker 4: Dodter's Red Sox Surrey Giants Red Sox World Series, and

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Speaker 4: we managed to avoid either of those teams getting in there.

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Speaker 4: So definitely feeling much better than I was a couple

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Speaker 4: of weeks ago, sweating out all these futures and just

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Speaker 4: hoping something came through for me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Red Sox scored twenty four runs in six games,

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Speaker 2: but they just decided to score eighteen of them in two,

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Speaker 2: so not good run dispersion from Boston we.

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Speaker 1: Do have, despite the fact that Atlanta is kind of

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Speaker 1: a surprise to be here. I think they had the

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Speaker 1: fewest wins of any NL playoff team, including the Cardinals,

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Speaker 1: I believe, even with their late season run. Despite that,

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Speaker 1: we still have a really awesome matchup. The Braves and

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Speaker 1: Astros have a really fascinating matchup, with the Braves actually

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Speaker 1: holding a pitching advantage, which I wouldn't have expected probably

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Speaker 1: coming into the season, but with Lance mccullor's junior injury,

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Speaker 1: it's Charlie Morton, it's Ian Anderson, it's Max Fried and

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Speaker 1: these guys have been electric all playoffs long. So plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty is very intriguing. Zerrilla, I'm gonna start with

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Speaker 1: you with your projection. Do you see value in this

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Speaker 1: series price on either side? Where do the lines mesh

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Speaker 1: with your projections? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I don't.

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Speaker 4: I made Houston fifty five percent here, so about minus

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Speaker 4: one twenty two implied, So I'd say Atlanta is closer

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Speaker 4: to being the quote unquote value side of the equation.

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Speaker 4: Probably need plus one thirty three or better in order

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Speaker 4: to just show straight money line value on them. But

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Speaker 4: I do you see some value on the Braze in

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Speaker 4: the prop market them to win in exactly seven games?

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Speaker 4: Projected that at fifteen percent, so about plus five sixty seven.

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Speaker 4: You can bet them around plus six hundred on that wager.

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Speaker 4: That's an edge of less than one percent, So I

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Speaker 4: mean you're talking about a margin of error in terms

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Speaker 4: of the value. But I definitely do see value in

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Speaker 4: that prop. The way I would actually prefer to play

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Speaker 4: them is the plus one point five games. Now I

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Speaker 4: project how many percentage points I give each team of

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Speaker 4: winning in a certain amount of games, and you can

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Speaker 4: take that map and combine it to figure out series spreads,

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Speaker 4: exact number of games that the series will have, et cetera.

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Speaker 4: So the Braves plus one and a half games either

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Speaker 4: they win the series or losing Game seven projected that

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Speaker 4: at sixty two percent minus one sixty three implied you

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Speaker 4: can bet that at minus one fifty five, so about

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Speaker 4: one point two percent in terms of a projected value

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Speaker 4: edge there. I do see this being a long series,

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Speaker 4: potentially getting to a game seven, and I definitely think

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Speaker 4: Atlanta has.

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Speaker 3: A chance to win giving their pitchers.

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Speaker 4: So Braves plus one and a half games minus one

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Speaker 4: fifty five as opposed to the series money line, I

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Speaker 4: think that's how it'd go about playing it.

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Speaker 1: Braves plus one and a half is the best bet.

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Speaker 1: It's very interesting. I really like it. The thing that

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Speaker 1: fascinates me most about this matchup I mentioned the Braves pitching.

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Speaker 1: The Braves pitching completely shut down LA's offense for the

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Speaker 1: most part in the NLC. Yes, the Astros faced probably

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Speaker 1: the other best pitching team in baseball on their path

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Speaker 1: to the playoffs. We saw them against the White Sox

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Speaker 1: against lanceln Carlos Schrodon and Lucas Gilito, and they wiped

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Speaker 1: the floor with them. BJ, do you see the same

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Speaker 1: thing happening? Is there are the Astros? Is the Astros

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Speaker 1: offense just too good for this Braves pitching staff? Or

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Speaker 1: is there more value in the Braves line with the

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Speaker 1: Underducks because they're pitching staff matches up better.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the pitching starting pitching matchup is pretty close.

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Speaker 2: Steven I would give the Braves a slight edge. You know,

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Speaker 2: losing McCullers for the Astros is it's a big loss

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Speaker 2: because not only was he their best pitcher, but he's

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Speaker 2: a heavy sinker ball guy, and Atlanta really struggles against sinkers.

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Speaker 2: So Houston's offense, I mean, they're good against both left

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Speaker 2: and right handed pitching. They were number one in Major

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Speaker 2: League Baseball and when he runs created plus against both

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Speaker 2: lefties and righties. Atlanta's not that great against left handed pitching,

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Speaker 2: but they're pretty good against righty. So from a serious

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Speaker 2: price perspective, I do like Atlanta to win. Iigar Zarella

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Speaker 2: that Atlanta to win, you know, four to three or

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Speaker 2: four to two, I think does have some value. But

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Speaker 2: for me, I think I'm gonna try and wait until

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Speaker 2: after game one and potentially get Atlanta at a better

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Speaker 2: serious price because the matchup against Franbur Valdez and we'll

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Speaker 2: talk about it when we get into game one is

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Speaker 2: not great for Atlanta. So I do think there may

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Speaker 2: be an opportunity to wait until after game one and

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Speaker 2: you can get Atlanta at a much better price than

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Speaker 2: you will before the series. So, you know, if you

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Speaker 2: can find Atlanta at plus one forty or better, I

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Speaker 2: think I'd play that. But outside of that, I think

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Speaker 2: I'm just kind of waiting until after game one, and

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Speaker 2: if the Astros win, then I'm probably gonna end up

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Speaker 2: betting the Brave series price to win the World Series.

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Speaker 1: Well, let's transition right into game one then, because that's

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Speaker 1: a great pitching matchup. You mentioned Valdez against Big Game

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Speaker 1: Chuck Charlie Morton, you know, the former Astro the World

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Speaker 1: Series hero for the Astros a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 1: We have Brave at plus one oh five underdogs in

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Speaker 1: the opener in Houston the Astros minus one thirty favorites. BJ.

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Speaker 1: You were just talking about it, so you like Houston

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Speaker 1: here basically, and then you're looking to jump on the

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Speaker 1: Brave series price, is that right?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: So this this, this game one is about the worst

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Speaker 2: possible matchup that the Braves could have hoped for because

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Speaker 2: Atlanta was not good against left handed pitching, only ninety

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Speaker 2: three way runs credit plus for the season, which was

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Speaker 2: twenty fifth in Major League Baseball, and the one pitch

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Speaker 2: that they struggle against is sinkers and Atlanta had a

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Speaker 2: negative seventeen point seven run value against sinkers and their

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Speaker 2: best hitter against sinkers this season was Ronald Acuna, who

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Speaker 2: is not in the lineup with a torn acl And

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Speaker 2: Franber Valdez is a heavy sinker ball pitcher and he's

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Speaker 2: also a lefty, So since he goes to a sinker

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Speaker 2: fifty one point eight percent of the time and has

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Speaker 2: a ridiculously high seventy point three percent ground ball rate,

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Speaker 2: it's a horrible matchup for Atlanta, and another had the

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Speaker 2: sixth lowest ground ball rate in Major League Baseball, So

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Speaker 2: it's kind of a contrasting to see if they can

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Speaker 2: maybe lift some of those balls, maybe out of the

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Speaker 2: park or into the air. But Valdez's main secondary pitch

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Speaker 2: is a curveball.

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Speaker 3: This is by far his best.

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Speaker 2: Pitch, only allowing a one fifty three expected batting average.

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Speaker 2: But Atlanta is pretty good against curveballs, fifth in Major

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Speaker 2: League Baseball this season. Dallas wasn't that great in his

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Speaker 2: you know, two starts fifteen at thirds innings, you know,

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Speaker 2: gave up seven and runs one point four whip, So

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Speaker 2: it's not a great matchup for Atlanta. Charlie Morton has

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Speaker 2: been pitching much better in the postseason than Franber Valdez

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Speaker 2: has been. You know, he didn't pitch well against the

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Speaker 2: Dodgers in Game five, but you know, he does throw

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Speaker 2: a curveball and it's pretty good, you know, and stroll

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Speaker 2: hitting like one fifty against it this season and has

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Speaker 2: over like a forty percent with rate. And the Astros

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Speaker 2: that's the one pitch that they struggle against, you know,

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Speaker 2: negative one point nine run value against curveballs the season,

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Speaker 2: which was twenty third major League Baseball. So it's a

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Speaker 2: very interesting matchup. I think I'm kind of looking towards

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Speaker 2: playing the under in this game. I think the over

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Speaker 2: runners at eight right now with or actually eight and

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Speaker 2: a half, sorry at minus one fifteen, so I'm going

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Speaker 2: under eight and a half runs at minus one fifteen

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Speaker 2: because I think both starting pitchers do have a decent

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Speaker 2: matchupins the opposing offenses.

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Speaker 1: I love backing big game Charlie Morton, and I'm actually

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Speaker 1: kind of upset to see him at plus one oh five.

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Speaker 1: I was hoping to get a little better juice there.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned Valdez though, and how he's kind of been

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Speaker 1: up and down this postseason, but he was fantastic in

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Speaker 1: his last start against Boston. It was probably the best

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Speaker 1: start of the entire postseason outside of you know, Logan

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Speaker 1: Web for the Giants in that one start against the Dodgers,

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Speaker 1: with eight innings, I think one earned run, allowed five strikeouts,

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Speaker 1: So we that is the Valdez that we know he's

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Speaker 1: capable of being. Zerillo. I know you've always been a

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Speaker 1: big Valdez fan. At minus one point thirty, do you

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Speaker 1: see value in him in Game one or do you

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Speaker 1: think Morton and the Braves are being undervalued?

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Speaker 4: Actually don't see value on either side of the game.

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Speaker 4: One money liner total made the first five inning line

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Speaker 4: at minus one twenty four for Houston. Full game minus

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Speaker 4: one nineteen totals four point three and eight point three,

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Speaker 4: So no projected value on either side of the money

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Speaker 4: line total, unfortunately for Game one, because I would like

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Speaker 4: to get involved. That said, I think BJ mentioned and

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Speaker 4: highlighted the two pitches which are the keys in this matchup,

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Speaker 4: Morton's curveball and Valdez's sinker. You talked about Colin Valdez

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Speaker 4: having more success in his last start against the Red Sox.

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Speaker 4: Houston changed the way that they were approaching pitching the

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Speaker 4: Red Sox lineup late in the series, which is what

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Speaker 4: helped shut them down. Our team in Baldonado, Brett Strom

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Speaker 4: got together the Astros pitching coach figured out to start

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Speaker 4: attacking the Red Sox hitters with fastballs aggressively. Valdez only

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Speaker 4: threw sinkers and curveballs in his last start, completely put

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Speaker 4: away his change up Sam Goes for Luis Garcia. They

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Speaker 4: actually fixed some mechanical tweaks that he had, which was

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Speaker 4: what causing was his knee sortus in his first start

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Speaker 4: of that series as well. He hit ninety seven miles

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Speaker 4: an hour four times in his most recent start, was

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Speaker 4: harder than he's thrown all seasons. So the Astros pitchers

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Speaker 4: definitely seem to be fine tuned coming in to the

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Speaker 4: World Series Unfortunately, they just only have two starting pitchers,

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Speaker 4: so it's gonna be very reliant on these guys to

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Speaker 4: get them through the series and get innings. Valdez's sinker

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Speaker 4: is an absolutely nasty pitch the Braves. It looks to

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Speaker 4: me in the stats like the Braves tend to focus

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Speaker 4: on secondary pitches and just sort of live with the

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Speaker 4: results that they get on fastballs. If they happen to

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Speaker 4: get on the fastball, that's fine. Otherwise they're really not

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Speaker 4: gonna worry about it because they've ranked poorly against fastballs

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Speaker 4: both early in the year and late in the season

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Speaker 4: after the trade deadline, pretty much crush all secondary stuff,

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Speaker 4: very good against curveball. So if Valdez's success with his sinker,

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Speaker 4: it's gonna be a really tough night for this Braves lineup.

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Speaker 4: We'll mentioned MVPs in a second, but I think Valdez

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Speaker 4: is definitely live in that market as well. Looking at

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Speaker 4: the Astros hitters, they don't give you much. They don't

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Speaker 4: swing outside the zone hardly at all. They take a

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Speaker 4: lot of called strikes, so they force you to put

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Speaker 4: the ball in the zone. Charlie Morton kind of needs

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Speaker 4: those swing and misses over the top of this curveball.

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Speaker 4: Bj mentioned the Astras have struggled a little bit with

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Speaker 4: curveballs this season, but Juli Guriel out, it's Bregman, two

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Speaker 4: guys who hit them really well. Michael Brantley can sit

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Speaker 4: on them at fastball. So I think the Astros actually

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Speaker 4: have a decent matchup here in Game one.

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Speaker 3: Don't have a.

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Speaker 4: Bet on the money liner total, maybe looking to go

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Speaker 4: over on Valdez's strikeouts, under on Morton's or potentially some

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Speaker 4: over total bases props guys like Brandley, Gariel or Bregman.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the we keep coming back to the pitching, and

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Speaker 1: you guys have you guys have summarized it really well.

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Speaker 1: The thing that I can't get past with Houston's offense.

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Speaker 1: You know, if the Braves are gonna win the World Series,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna have to get through probably the two most

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Speaker 1: dangerous offenses in baseball. They did it with the Dodgers,

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Speaker 1: now they've got to do it with the Astros. The

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Speaker 1: biggest difference is against the Dodgers. Well, first of all,

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Speaker 1: the Dodgers obviously weren't at full strength, not to not

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Speaker 1: to overlook what the Braves did. It was obviously very impressive,

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Speaker 1: but the Brave the Dodgers' biggest weakness all seas longestitting

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Speaker 1: left handed pitching, and the Braves have a lot of

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Speaker 1: left handed pitching with Max Freed in the bullpen. Even

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Speaker 1: we saw Drew Smiley did in spot work, Will Smith's

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Speaker 1: lefty Tyler Matzik' a lefty. Aj Minter is a lefty.

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Speaker 1: The Astros are good against both sides, but the Astros

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Speaker 1: crush lefties, and most of the braves key relievers are

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Speaker 1: left handed, and they're probably first or second best starting

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Speaker 1: pitcher is left handed. So that's just something that has

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Speaker 1: been tough for me to get past as someone who

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Speaker 1: wants to back the Braves because they're plus money, not

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Speaker 1: necessarily in game one, but for the series as a whole.

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Speaker 1: If they fall behind a one with Valdez against Charlie Morton,

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Speaker 1: then you're gonna have a lefty in Freed on the

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Speaker 1: mound in Game two, and yeah, they'll have an edge

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Speaker 1: over probably Luis Garcia or Jose or Chati overall. But

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Speaker 1: how do they get past that?

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Speaker 4: How?

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Speaker 3: You know?

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Speaker 1: Are we gonna see more Chris Martin, more, Jesse chabb As,

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Speaker 1: more Luke Jackson, who we saw give up the big

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Speaker 1: homer to Cody Bellinger Zilla the bullpens. What do you

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Speaker 1: see that you know, I know, you run the numbers

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Speaker 1: of the spreadsheet, you mark them all rested or or

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Speaker 1: not rested. Where do you see the bullpen edges going

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Speaker 1: in this series?

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Speaker 3: Actually really close?

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Speaker 4: But you're talking about the Braves being largely left handed,

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Speaker 4: so they have freed if three key relievers in that

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Speaker 4: bullpen in Minter Matsik and Will Smith, but they also

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Speaker 4: have Ian Anderson in their rotation, and he's a very

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Speaker 4: change up heavy guy with reverse splits so effectively, even

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Speaker 4: though he's a right handed pitcher, he actually functions more

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Speaker 4: like a left hander. So that only adds to Houston's

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Speaker 4: boost in terms of offensive support in this matchup. They

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Speaker 4: have been the best team against left handed pitching now

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Speaker 4: pretty much every year dating back to twenty seventeen twenty sixteen,

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Speaker 4: I mean, at the top of the splits leaderboards against

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Speaker 4: lefties almost every year. Michael Brantley struggles left on left,

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Speaker 4: but Jordon Alvarez and Kyle Tucker both have as good

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Speaker 4: of splits against lefties as they do against righty's. And

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Speaker 4: then you throw in all the other fantastic right hand

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Speaker 4: bats in that lineup, Martie Maltanado really being the only

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Speaker 4: hole down to the ninth spot, and this Ashers team

290
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Speaker 4: crushes lefties first in WRC plus against righties as well,

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Speaker 4: but this offense is a complete handful. I don't know

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Speaker 4: if I love the matchups for the Braves bullpen. Given

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Speaker 4: the facts that the Astros have a couple of left

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Speaker 4: handed bats of their three who hit left as well,

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Speaker 4: I don't really know how much they're going to get neutralized.

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Speaker 3: On paper.

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Speaker 4: I have these two bullpens projected as pretty much the

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Speaker 4: same in terms of overall quality in this series. Might

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Speaker 4: give a little bit more depth to the Astros, and

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Speaker 4: I think Dusty Baker has done a fantastic job mixing

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Speaker 4: and matching his guys. That goes back to the Alcs

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Speaker 4: last year when they were down three to zero against

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Speaker 4: the Raves and managed to come all the way back

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Speaker 4: and forth to Game seven. Dusty was just really aggressive

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Speaker 4: with this bullpen usage. We've seen it continue into this postseason,

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Speaker 4: So don't necessarily give an advantage to the either team,

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Speaker 4: but perhaps in terms of manager usage, I think I

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Speaker 4: trust Dusty Baker a little bit more to get guys

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Speaker 4: in and out of the game.

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Speaker 2: Really interesting to see how the bullpens are used throughout

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Speaker 2: this series, because we get into Game four, it's who

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Speaker 2: knows what it's going to be. If it's going to

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Speaker 2: be Who's Garnoa for the Braves or if it's gonna

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Speaker 2: be Zach Rinky facing the lineup once and then going

315
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Speaker 2: Babe to Christian Javier. But as we get deeper in

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Speaker 2: this series, I mean Zailla will be on this, but

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Speaker 2: really seeing how tired the bullpens are when we get

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Speaker 2: to game six and seven, I think it's really going

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Speaker 2: to be a key and who's actually going to win

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Speaker 2: this World Series because of you know, how short these

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Speaker 2: both these teams are on starting pitching. It's basically three

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Speaker 2: starting pitchers for each team and then the bullpens. So

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Speaker 2: it'll be very interesting to see as we go throughout

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Speaker 2: the series. And we'll also see, if you know, potentially

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Speaker 2: in Game one, which starting pitcher can go longer and

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Speaker 2: keep their bullpen a little bit rested.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's going to be absolutely fascinating. Bullpen usage, especially

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Speaker 1: for data nerds like us, as always is always something

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Speaker 1: to keep an eye on, and how Dusty and Snicker

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Speaker 1: they both have done a fantastic job all postseason. Snicker

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Speaker 1: may have made a few minor missteps in the NLCS

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Speaker 1: didn't cost it. The Dusty spin lights out, and it's

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Speaker 1: really tough not to root for Dusty. You know. I

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Speaker 1: know that the Astros are kind of public enemy number

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Speaker 1: one right now, but seeing Dusty get a ring would

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Speaker 1: be great.

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Speaker 1: Let's jump over to kind of our last segment here

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Speaker 1: and my favorite way to bet the world series every year.

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Speaker 1: That's World Series MVPs. To put it bluntly, betting World

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Speaker 1: series and vps is a fool's errand because there's so

371
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Speaker 1: much volatility, you have no idea what's going to happen.

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Speaker 1: I love pointing back to the last Red Sox World

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Speaker 1: Series and Steve Pierce won World Series MVP. I believe

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Speaker 1: he was sixty six to one to win that year.

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Speaker 1: I only remember that because I bet him. Sorry to gloat,

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Speaker 1: but World Series MVP this year is again very interesting

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Speaker 1: because it reflects the series price in that most of

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Speaker 1: the favorites are astros. The astros are favored, so most

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Speaker 1: of the favorites are astros. Jose l two v Checkson

380
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,879
Speaker 1: is the favorite at plus nine hundred. Behind him, you

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Speaker 1: have Michael Brantley and jord On Elvarez at plus one thousand,

382
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Speaker 1: Alex Bregman plus eleven hundred, and that's when you get

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Speaker 1: to our first Brave the reigning and nationallygu MVP Freddy

384
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Speaker 1: Freeman at plus eleven hundred. Going far a little further

385
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,919
Speaker 1: down there, Carlos Korea twelve hundred, Kyle Tuck Tucker fourteen hundred,

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Speaker 1: NLCS MVP, Eddie Rosario of fourteen hundred and then our

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Speaker 1: first pitcher, Max Freed plus sixteen hundred along with Austin

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Speaker 1: Reiley BJ. I'll start with you. It's a really big

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Speaker 1: odds board. Where do you see the value.

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Speaker 2: Just in general betting a starting pitcher to win the

391
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Speaker 2: World Series MVP, It's only happened four times since two

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00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,119
Speaker 2: thousand and three. Josh Beckett with the Marlins in two

393
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,320
Speaker 2: thousand and three, Col Handles in two thousand and eight

394
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 2: with the Phillies, Madison Bumgardner twenty fourteen with the Giants,

395
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Speaker 2: and Stephen Strasbourg twenty nineteen with the Nationals. So really

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Speaker 2: it's got to be a front end starter when who

397
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Speaker 2: wins both of his starts and potentially maybe even comes

398
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Speaker 2: in later in the series out of the bullpen to

399
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Speaker 2: secret and you really have to be the best player,

400
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:36,440
Speaker 2: you know, basically on the field, and has to be

401
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Speaker 2: a low scoring World Series. So betting starting pitching and

402
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Speaker 2: especially I don't know if going back in history, I

403
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 2: know it hasn't happened since two thousand of betting a

404
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,719
Speaker 2: reliever to win, I don't know if it's ever happened before,

405
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 2: But so I'm kind of staying away from all the

406
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 2: pitchers in the series because outside of maybe Framber Valdez,

407
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 2: I don't see like a front end number one starter

408
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 2: that's going to pull off. You know what those four

409
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Speaker 2: guys did in their World Series. So for me, I

410
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Speaker 2: like you y Guryel at twenty seven to one. He's

411
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 2: been hitting the ball really well this postseason, thirteen hits

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Speaker 2: in ten games, but eleven of those are singles, and

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Speaker 2: that's mainly how he won the batting title for the

414
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Speaker 2: AL this season. But he did put up pretty good

415
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Speaker 2: numbers three sixty three weighted on base average, hundred and

416
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 2: thirty four way runs perry plus. But what makes Guryel

417
00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 2: such a tough hitter is that, first of all, he

418
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,360
Speaker 2: has a really well strikeout right only eleven point two

419
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 2: percent on the season, which is second behind Brantley on

420
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:31,199
Speaker 2: the Astros. And he doesn't have any weaknesses from a

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00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 2: pitch mix standpoints, got positive run values against every single

422
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,120
Speaker 2: pitch type, and he hits both lefties and right as well,

423
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 2: over three hundred average and three fifty weighted on base

424
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 2: average against both. So at that price of twenty seven

425
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Speaker 2: to one, for a guy who's been hitting the ball

426
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Speaker 2: that well, I think that's just an unbelievable price for

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Speaker 2: World World Series MVP.

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Speaker 1: I love I love the gury El pick as well.

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Speaker 1: It's actually interesting you went back to two thousand to

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Speaker 1: look for relievers who have won World Series MVP. If

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Speaker 1: you went back one more year to the last time

432
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,520
Speaker 1: the Braves were in the World Series Marian Rivera, the

433
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 1: greatest closer of all time was World Series mvpety nine.

434
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 1: The thing that I always find interesting when betting World

435
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 1: Series MVP two is seeing the odds jacked up for

436
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 1: the lcsmvps. Eddie Rosario's fourteen hundred. I think that if

437
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: you had guessed what his World Series MVP price would

438
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 1: have been before the NLCS, it probably would have been

439
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 1: in the plus four thousand range. Just spit bolling. Jordan

440
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 1: Alvarez obviously plenty of expectation there as one of the favorites.

441
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have guessed this, though, but there's plenty of

442
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 1: history of lcsmvp's also winning World Series MVP. Corey Seger

443
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,399
Speaker 1: did it just last year, Bumgardner did it in twenty fourteen,

444
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,919
Speaker 1: David Freeze did it in twenty eleven, and then Hamils

445
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 1: who you mentioned also in two thousand and eight. So

446
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: there's plenty of evidence of carryover performance. So I wonder Zarillo,

447
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: if you look at someone like Rosario, someone like Elvarez

448
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 1: and say, yeah, these guys are going to carry it over,

449
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 1: there's good value here, or if you're looking at one

450
00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 1: of the favorites or a little further down the.

451
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:01,400
Speaker 2: Yeah.

452
00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:03,120
Speaker 3: I actually love what BJ did.

453
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,520
Speaker 4: And you know, most of the guys you mentioned, Colin,

454
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 4: I think the odds are just a bit too inflated.

455
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 4: Everybody's kind of in that that nine to one to

456
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 4: twelve to one to fifteen to one range. All of

457
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 4: the quote unquote offensive stars or established offensive guys on

458
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 4: these teams except for two, and those are Ozzy Albi's

459
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 4: and Julie Guriel, guys who are gonna get regular bats,

460
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,439
Speaker 4: were very important cogs in their lineup. BJ mentioned Guryel,

461
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,959
Speaker 4: so I won't fully go into it, but I do

462
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:30,679
Speaker 4: think the Braves are going to try to key on

463
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,160
Speaker 4: those left handed bats and the Astros lineup throughout the series.

464
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 3: We mentioned their left handed relievers.

465
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,919
Speaker 4: We mentioned Max, freed Ian Anderson, all of whom neutralized

466
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 4: lefty bats well. Ui Gariel hits lefties just as well,

467
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 4: easy hits righty's BJ minshed he puts the ball in

468
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 4: play a ton, so I just think there's a lot

469
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 4: of reasons to support him at an inflated priise. I

470
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 4: don't really get the price on Ozzi Albi's that all.

471
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 4: I think he should be priced closer to his offensive teammates.

472
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:56,439
Speaker 3: Like Rosario and Freeman.

473
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 4: This guy had an epic year, the youngest second baseman

474
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:02,959
Speaker 4: ever to put up a thirty one hundred season, seventy

475
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 4: seven extra base hits, twenty stolen bases. He does absolutely everything.

476
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,399
Speaker 4: He's just having a poor postseason. I believe a six

477
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 4: thirty ops, so he's getting under price based upon his postseason,

478
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 4: not based upon the numbers he's capable of putting up.

479
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 4: So I really like I'll be's on the brave side.

480
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 4: BJ mentioned a pitcher. Now, twenty nine of I believe

481
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,440
Speaker 4: sixty eight World Series MVP since nineteen to fifty five

482
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 4: wich is when the World Series started or World Series

483
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:32,719
Speaker 4: MVP started, have been pitchers. Three of those have been closers,

484
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 4: Twelve of the first fourteen were pitchers.

485
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 3: The rate has obviously declined since.

486
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 4: But if you are a starter who can pitch three

487
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 4: times in one series, you are absolutely in line for

488
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:43,160
Speaker 4: winning the award.

489
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,120
Speaker 3: That is the case with Romber Valdez.

490
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,879
Speaker 4: I know, I love this guy and I have just

491
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 4: some extra fanboy in in me in terms of wanting

492
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:53,400
Speaker 4: to back him. But I really think it does line

493
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 4: up well considering what the Astras need from a pitcher

494
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 4: usage perspective throughout the series to get through it. If

495
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,679
Speaker 4: he pitches three times in this series and ends up

496
00:25:01,720 --> 00:25:03,399
Speaker 4: winning two of those games, I think he's a very

497
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,880
Speaker 4: good chance of winning the award. So from Raveld does

498
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 4: the one pitcher who I'd look at then by wildcard shot,

499
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 4: that would be jorgece Silaire missed the NLCS after getting

500
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 4: diagnosed with COVID, but during the NLDS he was hitting

501
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 4: lead off for the Braves, was playing over Josh Peterson

502
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 4: in the second half after he got traded to the Braves. Basically,

503
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 4: homerd at a thirty eight home run pace WRC plus

504
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 4: well over one hundred.

505
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,199
Speaker 3: I think was that one thirty four. So Horace Hilaire,

506
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 3: if he gets.

507
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,119
Speaker 4: The playing time, he will probably DH or play the

508
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,959
Speaker 4: outfield in the American League Park, and he might if

509
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 4: he's hitting well, get back into the going up in

510
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 4: the nl park. A bit of a wildcard because you

511
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:44,200
Speaker 4: don't know playing time for certain, Butjorece Soilaire at big,

512
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,959
Speaker 4: juicy odds, if he's hitting lead off for the Braves,

513
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 4: that's definitely a ticket you'd.

514
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 3: Want to have.

515
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, Solaire is definitely fascinating. And I'm with you that

516
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 1: I can't figure out this Ossielby's number. I'm like, this

517
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 1: is the second best player on the Braves basically at

518
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 1: thirty to one. That's insane. But I could say that

519
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 1: about a lot of Braves because their odds are so

520
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,120
Speaker 1: far down. It's like you could just see any one

521
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: of these guys getting hot and winning World Series. You know,

522
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,160
Speaker 1: I mentioned Steve Pierce earlier, and I'm looking at Adam

523
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 1: Duval at thirty to one too, and I'm like, the

524
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 1: Astros don't have a lot of lefties. He doesn't hit lefties.

525
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 1: This dude just runs into three home runs all of

526
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 1: a sudden. He's World Series MVP. You mentioned Celaire, dance

527
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,360
Speaker 1: By Swampson at forty to one, even Travis Darnaut at

528
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,639
Speaker 1: fifty to one. I'm like, there's no reason any of

529
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 1: these guys couldn't just run into one. But in terms

530
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 1: of Astros, I mean, I like to bet at least

531
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 1: one guy on each side going in, and in terms

532
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 1: of astros, it's like, I don't see any better value

533
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 1: than probably Guryel, who you both mentioned twenty five to one.

534
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: He's like the lowest odds of any regular unless you

535
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: want to bet on you know, Jake Myers or Maltin

536
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 1: Maldonado at sixty six to one. So great stuff here.

537
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 1: I'm I'm gonna be writing a full article on my

538
00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 1: favorite World Series MVP picks, which people can shay got

539
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:04,640
Speaker 1: on Theaction dot com as well. So we've got our

540
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:07,640
Speaker 1: our series price, we've got our Game one price, we've

541
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 1: got our World series MVPs. So as we wrap things up,

542
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 1: I'm just going to put you guys on the spot

543
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 1: here and say, what is your official World series prediction?

544
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 1: Who wins how many games?

545
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 3: Azerilloh, I go with the Astros in seven.

546
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,880
Speaker 4: I just like the way that the matchups work out

547
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 4: for them getting to face basically a number of lefties

548
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 4: or effectively lefties in this series, with two of their

549
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 4: three lefty bats happening to hit lefties. Well, I think

550
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 4: the matchups just work out in their favorite BJ.

551
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm actually gonna agreement Astros and seven games. I

552
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 2: think the Frambur Valdez is going to be so key

553
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 2: in this series given now Atlanta.

554
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 3: Just really struggles gets lefties.

555
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 2: So if the Braves can get to seven games, I'm

556
00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 2: sure Houston will roll Valdez out there and let a

557
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 2: pitch as long as he can. So I agree Astros

558
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 2: and seven games, and then there'll be a huge cheating

559
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 2: scandal in like nine days after the World Series.

560
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 1: Astros and seven for the record plus four p fifty

561
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: at bet MGM. I think it's gonna be Astros in six.

562
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 1: I want the Braves to win this series Astros in

563
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 1: six plus four hundred for all the reasons you guys mentioned.

564
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 1: I just I'm not as big of an optimist as

565
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 1: you guys that we're gonna get a full seven games

566
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 1: that we deserve. So that'll wrap things up for us.

567
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 1: Hope everyone enjoys the World Series. On behalf of Sean

568
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 1: Zarrillo and BJ Cunningham, I'm calling Witcharch, good luck with

569
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 1: your best and enjoy the MLB World Series