WEBVTT - Jobs, ChatGPT, and Barbie (Podcast) 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:04.000 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:05.240 my co host Matt Miller. 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:09.560 Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:13.640 and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.279 Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:20.520 you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 0:00:21.440 --> 0:00:23.400 We're gonna go ahead and go over to Tom Gimble. 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:27.440 Now, he's the founder and CEO of Lesalm Network and 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:29.720 he this is a hiring firm, so he is going 0:00:29.800 --> 0:00:32.320 to be able to give us a fantastic outlook of 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:35.040 those jobs numbers that we got yesterday and of course 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:36.600 the numbers that we got today. 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:37.080 Tom. 0:00:37.120 --> 0:00:39.000 Great to speak with you, and thanks so much for 0:00:39.120 --> 0:00:41.600 chatting with us on this Friday. Talk me through the 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:44.440 totality of the data here and what it tells you 0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:47.360 about the jobs market. Is it the bad news that 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:49.240 we should be listening to or the good news? 0:00:50.240 --> 0:00:52.159 I think an economist can spend in any way they 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:55.320 want to. However, anytime an economy adds over two hundred 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:58.960 thousand jobs, I'd say, thank you, let's move on to 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:01.680 the next month. I mean, there's nothing here that we 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:04.960 should be depressed about. I think what the layman needs 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:09.360 to realize is there's really two messages. One is the 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:13.360 economy good for me today? And number two is what 0:01:13.440 --> 0:01:16.360 are economists and the Fed looking at for interest rates, 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:19.160 which is a longer ballgame at a higher macro level. 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:23.920 And what this says right now is that because of 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:27.720 two hundred and nine thousand versus roughly a quarter million, 0:01:27.720 --> 0:01:30.680 which is what the economists were estimating, is that the 0:01:30.720 --> 0:01:34.200 Fed won't raise interest rates again, that people think it's 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:37.560 slowing down, which is actually an even better thing for 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:40.480 the economy. So we missed the number by a smidge. 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:43.119 We still add over two hundred thousand jobs. The Fed 0:01:43.160 --> 0:01:46.920 won't raise interest rate, the party continues. Everybody's happy, but 0:01:47.000 --> 0:01:49.120 let's paint it is really sad and depressing right now. 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:51.440 Well, there was a time when if I could fond 0:01:51.440 --> 0:01:53.480 a mirror, I could get a job. Is that still 0:01:53.480 --> 0:01:53.880 the case? 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:57.400 It's not too far off from that, to be quite frank. 0:01:58.320 --> 0:02:02.600 We're looking at a situation where companies are still hiring. Obviously, 0:02:02.640 --> 0:02:06.520 we added over two hundred thousand jobs, and the difference 0:02:06.560 --> 0:02:09.119 is is they're not hiring in bulk. So you might 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:11.800 not be able to get a job at any company 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:14.959 you want to, as you could have in twenty twenty one. However, 0:02:15.320 --> 0:02:17.680 there are more than enough jobs for people who are 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:18.720 looking okay. 0:02:18.720 --> 0:02:22.680 But when you look at the ADP data specifically, leisure 0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:25.400 was the biggest growth area. But leisure, I mean, you 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:27.600 can tell me this, Tom, It feels like a little 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:32.560 bit of a concerning area because it can those jobs 0:02:32.560 --> 0:02:34.600 can go away so fast, and we obviously saw that 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:35.120 in March. 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:39.600 Seasonality No, no, I disagree because it's seasonality. So compare 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:42.160 June over June and look at the summer, and we 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:45.240 know those are coming. So that was built into the 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:48.640 estimate that the economists had that they've been doing this 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:51.320 for forever. And when they predict two hundred and forty 0:02:51.400 --> 0:02:53.600 thousand or two hundred and fifty thousand, they're figuring in 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:57.480 for the summer hospitality jobs too. This is a good report. 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:00.679 Anything other is chicken little, as I say every month 0:03:00.720 --> 0:03:01.240 on this show. 0:03:01.320 --> 0:03:04.880 But is it potentially a final gasp for air before 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:06.440 the economy starts to slow? 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:10.400 No, I really don't think so, because what's gonna end 0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:12.600 up My guess is I haven't what's the market doing right? 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:16.760 Now, oh, with a stock market, I'm gonna call it mixed. 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:18.679 Yeah, it's a little unch very much. 0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:23.000 It's unchanged, right, So what that message sends. If it 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:25.960 were a bad number, the market would be down. It's 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:28.640 a number that says we're still adding jobs. And once 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:30.919 the Fed doesn't raise rates at the next go around, 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:32.960 this thing is gonna shoot. The market's gonna shoot up 0:03:33.000 --> 0:03:36.200 even more. We added over two hundred thousand jobs. It's 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:39.560 funny how quickly we forget the spring of twenty twenty. 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:42.360 It's funny how quickly we forget two thousand and eight 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:46.440 and two thousand and nine. Those were bad. This is good. 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:48.240 We got to keep things in. 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:52.360 Perspective, Tom Doo, Who has the leverage is that the 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:55.720 mixed starting to change is still the employee, like, hey, 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:57.920 you can give me a raise or else I'm gonna 0:03:57.920 --> 0:03:59.880 go find another job. But we're with the employer. 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:04.120 We've gotten away from that. The leverage is back on 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:07.400 the employer side, and I think that's what the changes 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:09.240 that we're seeing. And if there's a little bit of 0:04:10.000 --> 0:04:13.440 not desperation in the air, but fear around, it's people 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:16.880 bringing employee companies bringing employees back to the office. And 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.640 the employees can't quit and go get another job working 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:22.760 fully remote anymore because a lot of companies are bringing 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:25.960 people back to the office. So my feeling is a 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:28.280 year from now, we're not going to be talking oh, 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:31.200 post pandemic and who's working in the office and who's 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:34.159 working not Almost every company will be three days a week, 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:36.000 if not four days a week a year from now. 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:39.800 And where are you seeing the most demand for workers. 0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:43.320 It's always going to be in technology right now because 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:46.240 we have well, we have this intersection right now where 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:51.599 it's technology is growing so fast and we're having so 0:04:51.920 --> 0:04:54.599 Now we have AI, which is what dot Com was 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:57.360 twenty years ago. Right twenty years ago, you put dot 0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:00.200 com in your company's name and you'd go public. Can 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:02.560 you'd be worth a billion dollars? Just wait until every 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:05.520 company has it being less sound network AI. Everything is 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:08.320 going to be AI AI AI, and we're going to 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:10.960 see this be a self fulfilling prophecy that it's going 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:12.840 to balloon a new market and it's going to be 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:15.800 the driver of jobs through AI and cybersecurity. 0:05:16.400 --> 0:05:19.159 Well, what's go over average pay for me in the 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:22.160 different industries that you are familiar with. 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:26.880 Well, I think average pay is a really interesting issue, 0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:29.760 and the reason is is because it figures in salaried 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:33.000 and hourly, and we have hourlyas that have been en 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:36.560 that have rose over the past three years due to 0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:41.279 number one COVID pandemic, pay, number two social unrest, number 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:46.960 three municipalities wanting to with more liberal aldermen so to speak, 0:05:47.200 --> 0:05:49.600 and mayors and officials running it. So we've seen the 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:54.120 municipal minimum wage rise that used to be ten dollars 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:56.840 an hour. In some cities it's fifteen to seventeen dollars 0:05:56.839 --> 0:06:00.279 an hour. And we've seen hourly factory workers and hourly 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:02.920 warehouse workers go from ten to twelve dollars an hour 0:06:03.160 --> 0:06:05.480 to eighteen to twenty to twenty five dollars an hour. 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:07.960 So you have that aspect of the business which is 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:12.400 still healthy, but we'll see how that gets affected. It's 0:06:12.480 --> 0:06:15.159 usually the first area. The interesting thing is on the 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:19.000 white collar jobs, where people were getting counteroffers from their 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:22.520 employer when they leave for huge amounts to get them 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:25.320 to stay. We're not seeing that as much anymore. We're 0:06:25.360 --> 0:06:27.880 seeing companies toe the line and say we're not going 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:31.080 to screw up our whole salary structure. Because the economy's good, 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:32.560 not unbelievable. 0:06:32.960 --> 0:06:35.880 But we're seeing also a decline to your point in 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:39.960 weekly hours worked. Is that a key indicator to you 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:42.440 of something that's to come and is that something that 0:06:42.480 --> 0:06:44.720 you're seeing in your day to day now. 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:47.120 I think you see a decline in weekly hours work 0:06:47.240 --> 0:06:49.919 because of the increase in the hospitality sector. And so 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:53.240 when you've got people that are hiring in those phases, 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:56.279 it sometimes leverages down the amount of hours work by 0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:58.880 each employee. And so the thing that makes it good 0:06:58.960 --> 0:07:01.159 is that more people are getting jobs in that space. 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:03.680 The thing that makes it bad is some people who 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:06.240 are working over time and doing things like that. It's 0:07:06.279 --> 0:07:08.599 not leveraged into the average hours, so you see a 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.520 natural decline in that way. You also see more people 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:14.280 taking time off in the summer, which lowers the average 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:16.080 hours worked. I don't think that's as big a deal 0:07:16.120 --> 0:07:17.160 as a lot of economists do. 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:20.000 Can you give me an update on the gig economy? 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:21.160 Where does where does that stand? 0:07:22.040 --> 0:07:22.280 Yeah? 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:27.119 I think the gig economy was a gig. I think 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:30.880 that it was something that we're seeing that people in 0:07:31.240 --> 0:07:34.360 good times. It's awesome. I don't need my boss. I 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:36.440 can get a job whenever I want, so, I'll go uber, 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:40.080 I'll do door dash, I'll be a dog walker, I'll 0:07:40.080 --> 0:07:42.000 do all these things. And that's why it didn't show 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:45.000 into the jobs numbers. Now we see those people saying, hey, 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:47.240 wait a second, I can't keep up with the cost 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:51.440 of living doing that. I need to get benefits. I 0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:53.200 want to have a four to oh one k. People 0:07:53.240 --> 0:07:57.520 start to settle in as gen Z becomes in their thirties, right, 0:07:57.560 --> 0:07:59.600 So you have this cyclical nature. That's something that happened 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:02.720 with MILLENNI and they don't want to be doing gig economy. 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:05.280 Work really quickly. Thirty seconds here, Tom, If J. Powell 0:08:05.280 --> 0:08:07.000 calls you and says, what do I need to know 0:08:07.040 --> 0:08:09.520 about the jobs market that the economists aren't telling me? 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:11.360 What are you saying, I tell him. 0:08:11.240 --> 0:08:12.680 The same thing I told him this morning when we 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:16.040 were talking. No, I'm kidding. I would tell him keep 0:08:16.080 --> 0:08:18.160 things flat for the next cycle, don't do a thing. 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:21.240 All right, Well, we'll see if the market agrees with 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:23.240 you there. Tom, thank you so much for joining us 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:25.760 this morning to break down that job's data for us. 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:29.280 That was Tom Gimble. He is CEO at LaSalle Network. 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:31.880 That's a hiring firm, so John, he's got a great 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:34.440 outlook on what's really going on on the ground when 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:35.760 it comes to hiring and wages. 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:40.040 There you're listening to the team Ken's are Live program 0:08:40.160 --> 0:08:44.120 Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 0:08:44.200 --> 0:08:47.360 the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:49.520 on demand wherever you get your podcast. 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:56.800 We were easing some of those declines earlier today and 0:08:56.840 --> 0:08:58.520 now it's looking like we're back in the red for 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:01.760 the S and p NASDAC relatively unchanged. So we're going 0:09:01.800 --> 0:09:04.080 to talk about what to make of the day's trade 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:08.120 with Ben Emmons. He is the principal, senior portfolio manager 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.559 and head of fixed income and Macro at New Edge Wealth. 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:13.240 Got a laundry. 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:17.880 List of previous work in the finance industry that we're 0:09:17.880 --> 0:09:19.600 going to talk to him about. Ben, thanks for being 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:22.880 in studio with us. Helped me make sense of what's 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:26.400 going on in markets today. How are they digesting the 0:09:26.480 --> 0:09:27.080 data here? 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:30.400 Still digesting medisine, But I think it's about you know, 0:09:30.440 --> 0:09:32.439 the ADP number took a lot of the gas out 0:09:32.480 --> 0:09:35.640 of the market. Because I was a real surprise. So 0:09:35.679 --> 0:09:38.400 it's this headline from non fan patals comes in a 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:42.480 little softer, you get some muted reaction, but the reaction 0:09:42.600 --> 0:09:45.640 is the same as yesterday. I yields a little bit 0:09:45.640 --> 0:09:49.000 lower stocks because the market's trying to digeste This is 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:52.280 a job market that doesn't really cool off. If anything, 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:55.520 it just really underlines that the FED has to pull 0:09:55.600 --> 0:09:58.720 forward here. It has to probably hike maybe more than 0:09:58.760 --> 0:10:02.320 two times because the resiliency of the economy, you know, 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:06.160 there's too much strength underneath. And I know these reporters 0:10:06.160 --> 0:10:09.240 that didn't show any significant weakness in any area. So 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.760 I think markets are looking at like we're going to 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.840 have to start factoring in a higher terminal rate that 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.000 may be beyond what the FED is factoring it in 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:17.640 for the end of the year. 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:21.120 You know, little history. One of the former FED chairman, 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:24.400 Paul Volker, used to carry in his breast pocket a 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:29.960 readout of the latest labor agreements, wage agreements with the unions. 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:35.120 Presumably how sticky are wages right now, because that seems 0:10:35.120 --> 0:10:37.959 to be the key for all of us who follow 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:38.800 interest rates. 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:42.560 Yeah, the the every average hourly earnings of four point 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:45.000 four percent year on year. There was another I think 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:48.880 sign of that if you have labor being this strong 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:52.720 consistent job gains, you're going to get higher wages. And 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:56.360 every wage striking from the Atlanta FAT shows an upward momentum. 0:10:56.960 --> 0:10:58.959 The ones that stand out to me are construction and 0:10:59.080 --> 0:11:01.720 leisured as well. I think the biggest wage gains are happening. 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:05.680 There's maybe less of unionized area then if you think 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:08.360 about ups as an example right of what's happening there. 0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:12.760 But to that point of Vocar, if you're getting consistent 0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:17.040 gains of labor and wages pick up, yeah, there's some 0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:20.920 level of let's say, prices drive to higher wages and 0:11:21.000 --> 0:11:24.040 vice versa. So it is happening in the economy. Not 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:26.520 the same as in the seventies, but it's definitely a 0:11:26.600 --> 0:11:27.840 trend of higher wages. 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:30.920 I'll go back to my ques. Is that sticky? Is 0:11:30.920 --> 0:11:31.800 that going to remain? 0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:33.280 It looks like. 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:37.320 It's sticky because if you think of the core pce exer, 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:41.600 core services, pce X housing you plot out against those 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:44.880 wage trackers from the Atlanta FAT, it's exactly the same trend, 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:47.760 almost identical, just on top of each other. That looks 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:48.840 like very sticky to me. 0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:52.640 How sticky then, Okay, I've been dying to ask this question. 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:55.360 John, You're gonna love this. On a scale of peanut 0:11:55.400 --> 0:11:58.160 butter to super glue, how sticky? 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:04.120 Oh not super glue. I don't compares that probably is 0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:07.040 not because it is a competitive labor market. So I 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:09.120 do think that if you get layoffs, so you get like, 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:13.080 you know, some adjustment of wages in certain areas, it's 0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:15.920 just more stickier in terms of the demand for labors. 0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:19.080 Is sticky that or drives up wages. I think that's 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:21.640 the issue. The Commerce Department put out of a board 0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:24.600 about a month ago highlighting all the labor shortages across 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:26.520 the economy. There's a lot of it still there that 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.120 keeps those wages like peing a butter. 0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:32.120 Okay, well you you well, there you go. You do 0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:32.720 a great job. 0:12:32.760 --> 0:12:35.240 Though, ben of looking at this from a global perspective, 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:37.480 and when you look at the inflation picture in the UK, 0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:39.520 it makes me glad that I'm in the US, even 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:43.439 though inflation here is pretty bleak for me when I'm 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:46.480 being a consumer outside of the desk here, talk to 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:49.440 me about to what extent the inflation picture in the 0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:52.160 UK and the credit tight ning we're seeing there could 0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:54.600 impact what the FED has to do here in the States. 0:12:55.280 --> 0:12:56.839 Yeah, there's a bit of that. That's the idea of 0:12:56.920 --> 0:13:01.400 butterfly fact. Yeah, you know, I think is more risk 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:04.040 of that rage price spiral part of it. There is 0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:08.000 more unionized economy, but it's also it's showing the signs 0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:11.240 of it. And you know, the UK obviously is really 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:15.240 suffering from the supply shock in Europe, the food supply 0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:19.079 shock that's compounded by the Brexit. You know, that's now 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:22.480 really showing up in their data and they're you know, 0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:25.160 the Bank of England didn't go so far as to 0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:28.480 feted with a number of rate hikes really quickly after 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:30.920 one of not like large rate hikes, and this is 0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:33.240 why the market is pricing in six and a half 0:13:33.240 --> 0:13:36.000 percent of a bank rate that's on the base points 0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:39.560 more than the where the FAT is projected at. I 0:13:39.559 --> 0:13:43.520 think the food price inflation is where they're struggling. They 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:46.559 can't really cool that off because of the Brexit effect. 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:48.160 That's really the key issue. 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:49.840 Does the market now believe the Fed? 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:54.240 They do, John, I mean it has actually been there 0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:58.480 way for a while. Sounds odd, but that transitory discussion 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:01.880 that where the fat apparently lost so much credibility, you know, 0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:04.080 the bomb market early on, except like, well, Fat, you 0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:06.719 started raising rates, You're going to get your inflation back 0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.319 to two percent over time. That's what the inflation lik 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:13.200 bonb market has been very consistent in and that's I 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:16.760 think where we currently are today. It hasn't really changed 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:20.200 even though you're getting these good, you know, payroll numbers 0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:25.000 and you see it continuing strength in the economy. There's 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:27.400 another side of it that the energy markets have really 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:30.240 cooled off from last year and commodity market students. That helps. 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:33.600 I mean, it's part of that calculation in these inflation expectations. 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:36.320 But I do think that market has been at the 0:14:36.360 --> 0:14:38.480 side of the Fat saying you're going to succeed in 0:14:38.520 --> 0:14:40.600 this mission. You're going to bring that inflation right down. 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:42.840 It may take a number of years, but you're going together, all. 0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:48.160 Right, the obligatory questions. July that is twenty five basis points. Again, 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.240 what happens after that? Is it a higher rate regime 0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:55.240 six months from now? You got forty five seconds. 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:58.200 Yeah, so July that's now of course confirmed by this 0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:01.080 data at CPI next week, so that probably he's going 0:15:01.120 --> 0:15:04.800 to fully cement it to one hundred percent probability. You 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:06.960 know it will remain data dependent. That's how the market 0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:09.720 is trying to price it. So the September and November 0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:12.440 meetings all still in play. But the probabilities do show 0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:14.840 that you'd like you have an honor rate high extra. 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:19.400 The federal match is median forecast plus. The probability of 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:21.880 a six percent rate in November has notched up a 0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:24.280 little bit. It's about ten percent. So let's keep an 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.560 eye on that because that is not impossible to see 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:27.360 a six percent rate. 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:30.000 Yeah, and it seems like if you're listening to j. 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:32.000 Powell, he's just going to continue to look at the 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:34.760 totality of the data when deciding what he is going 0:15:34.800 --> 0:15:37.200 to do next. Ben Emmons, thank you so much for 0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:39.520 joining us as always, great to see you in the 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:42.960 studio with us as well. That was Ben Emmons's principal, 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:46.360 senior portfolio manager and head of fixed income at New 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:48.760 Edge Wealth, joining to talk about those jobs numbers and 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:51.240 of course what the Fed is going to do next? 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:53.640 Our favorite question here at Bloomberg. 0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:57.040 You're listening to the tape. Can's our live program Bloomberg 0:15:57.080 --> 0:16:00.680 Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 0:16:00.720 --> 0:16:03.960 tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:06.800 You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:11.800 flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:15.800 No, you're all loving our FED Speak analysis here, but 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:18.080 we've got a great guest in to talk with us 0:16:18.360 --> 0:16:20.600 about the jobs data and how it's going to impact 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:22.440 FED mooves moving forward. 0:16:22.440 --> 0:16:23.960 We've got Julia Pollock here. 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:27.960 She is a chief economist at zip Recruiter, joining us 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:30.880 on zoom to talk through some of these jobs numbers. Julia, 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:35.720 thank you so much for coming on this morning with us. 0:16:36.040 --> 0:16:38.720 Talk to me about what your take is on the 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:41.240 current jobs market. I mean, if we're listening to gooules By, 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:43.680 it sounds like it's strong but cooling. 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:45.520 Would you agree with that description? 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:51.440 Absolutely strong, solid, robust, But there are clear signs of 0:16:51.480 --> 0:16:56.400 cooling in today's jobs report, not just the slowest job 0:16:56.440 --> 0:17:00.360 growth number since decem for twenty twenty, but also rise 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:03.200 in the number of people working part time for economic reasons. 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:05.520 Those are people who've had their hours cut or who 0:17:05.680 --> 0:17:08.120 can't find full time work but want to be working 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:08.639 full time. 0:17:09.520 --> 0:17:14.320 You guys, a ZIP recruiter must generate its own proprietary data. 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:16.120 What does that tell you, if anything? 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:20.880 Absolutely so, that has shown a large decline in online 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:25.439 job hostings than even in BLS reported jobs data, but 0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:31.800 a rebound in June. So we also saw a pretty 0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:36.840 strong June, but even clearer signs that the lave market 0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:38.960 is cooling down and that the Fed's interest rate hikes 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:42.200 are starting to bite. That they are reducing private investment 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:44.919 and causing companies, even those that would like to be 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:49.840 hiring more, to be a bit more cautious and concerned. 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:53.600 What about wages? What does your data show? 0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:59.480 So wage growth in job hostings has also slowed In 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:04.240 twenty twenty two, the share of job titles that saw 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:09.280 average wage increases over the year was three times higher 0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:12.400 than the share that saw declines. This time around, we're 0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:19.159 actually seeing more job titles show lower average posted wages 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:21.359 in job hostings than games. 0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:26.119 Yeah, it's so important to watch. And our Bloomberg Economics 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:29.680 team puts it really well that they still anticipate a 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:32.480 recession coming in the second half of twenty twenty three. 0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:33.760 So anytime now. 0:18:33.560 --> 0:18:36.040 And they say that you start to see those cracks 0:18:36.040 --> 0:18:39.280 in the labor market about two to three quarters after 0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:42.960 recession officially begins. So, Julia, I wonder if when you're 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.600 looking at the data, does it feel to you like 0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:48.800 this is just the beginning of the title wave of 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:52.159 recessionary impacts on the jobs market, or is it something 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:53.199 less intense than that. 0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:56.200 Well, I think it's something less intense than that. I 0:18:56.200 --> 0:18:59.040 think we're now at a place where the labor market 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:02.840 is at as steady sustainable pace. We could keep this 0:19:03.000 --> 0:19:06.159 up for months and months and months. Employment levels are 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:08.840 still well below their pre pandemic trend, and so there's 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:11.040 still a lot of catch up hiring that could take 0:19:11.040 --> 0:19:13.760 place in the coming months. Industries that were hardest hit 0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:16.120 in the recession are sort of finally playing catch up, 0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:18.600 like the government, not an industry, but you know what 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:22.760 I mean, a sector that was far behind. So I 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:24.600 think there are lots of reasons to be bullish on 0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:27.920 this labor market still. And then we also just had 0:19:27.920 --> 0:19:30.480 an almost fifteen percent return in the stock market year 0:19:30.520 --> 0:19:34.800 to date and a rebound and consumer confidence. All of 0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:37.959 those things could bode well for job growth in the future. 0:19:38.160 --> 0:19:41.639 There are huge risks, don't get me wrong, but I 0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:46.320 don't think we necessarily are in a bad place. 0:19:47.160 --> 0:19:49.840 I put this question just about every guest we had today. 0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:52.720 I'll put it to you who's in the driver's seat, 0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:56.960 the employers have the leverage or the employees. 0:19:58.040 --> 0:20:01.800 It very much depends on the industry. Talking about goods 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:06.639 related industries like retail, transportation, and warehousing, workers there have 0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:09.520 seen a large decline in their leverage, and that's because 0:20:09.560 --> 0:20:12.520 consumers are shifting their spending back from goods to services. 0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:15.879 Tech is still a glaring weak spot in this economy, 0:20:16.200 --> 0:20:19.320 with far fewer quits than before the pandemic and more 0:20:19.400 --> 0:20:20.880