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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Bloomberg sound On. Welcome
Speaker 2: to Jobs Day. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where there
Speaker 2: does seem to be a pretty good feel about this.
Speaker 2: The headline on the terminal says it all fed hiking
Speaker 2: cycle looks done after US jobs report shows cooling. See
Speaker 2: Jay Brison, the economist at Wells Fargo, put a fork
Speaker 2: in it. He says they're done. And I'm not allowed
Speaker 2: to ask Jared Bernstein that because he's not gonna comment
Speaker 2: on the FED and I know the rules. Jared, of course,
Speaker 2: the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors,
Speaker 2: with us from a sunny North lawn. I do wonder, though, Jared,
Speaker 2: maybe this is a better way of getting to it.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining as always on Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Is this the steady, stainable growth you were aiming for?
Speaker 3: I would say so. First of all, thanks for having
Speaker 3: me on. It's always great to talk to you. There
Speaker 3: are many joes in my life, but you're definitely one
Speaker 3: of them, and absolutely absolutely, you know, it's interesting that
Speaker 3: you should use that terminology steady stable growth transition Therein
Speaker 3: back in I think March of twenty two, President Biden
Speaker 3: wrote an op ed I think we showed up in
Speaker 3: the Wall Street Journal where he said there will be
Speaker 3: some downshifting in terms of job gains, and he said,
Speaker 3: you know, we should look for numbers like one hundred.
Speaker 4: And fifty thousand.
Speaker 3: Now, I don't want to make the commander in chief
Speaker 3: the forecaster in chief. He's got enough to do, but
Speaker 3: that was certainly looking around a corner. I think everyone
Speaker 3: recognizes that in order to align supplying demand in the
Speaker 3: labor market, we need to see some cooling. We've been
Speaker 3: seeing that for a while. But the key is to
Speaker 3: maintain the tight job market, as I think emphasized by
Speaker 3: an unemployment rate. It's been below four percent for twenty
Speaker 3: one months in a row. Now, let me ask everyone
Speaker 3: who's hearing my voice to go to the CEA blog
Speaker 3: today and read a post we have on the importance
Speaker 3: of maintaining persistently tight label markets, in this case in
Speaker 3: closing racial unemployment and employment gaps. We've got some great
Speaker 3: scatter plots up there. Take a look. It's just one
Speaker 3: of the benefits of this transition to more steady, stable growth.
Speaker 5: You know, I have a bookmarked.
Speaker 2: I'm going there right now while you're talking to us, Jared.
Speaker 2: The fact is, though, and I find this really interesting.
Speaker 2: You can give me your take on this. If it
Speaker 2: were not for the auto workers strike, and I know
Speaker 2: that that was factored in, Wall Street had factored that
Speaker 2: into expectations, but that would have been another what thirty
Speaker 2: five thousand jobs, and we would have been, well, I
Speaker 2: guess potentially.
Speaker 5: A little hotter than expected. Are we going to get
Speaker 5: back to that number next month?
Speaker 3: Well, I think the right way to look at this
Speaker 3: is always to smooth out a few months. On a
Speaker 3: three month rolling average basis, average monthly job gains have
Speaker 3: been about two hundred thousand. That's actually higher than what
Speaker 3: economists think of as the break even number. That is
Speaker 3: the number that you would need to just sort of
Speaker 3: hold the unemployment rate where it is given labor force participation,
Speaker 3: that's closer to one hundred, so some you know, being
Speaker 3: somewhere in the range between one hundred and two hundred
Speaker 3: feels like a good place to be. We still have
Speaker 3: though this month the LF participation rate ticked down, including
Speaker 3: for working aged persons. I think we still have some
Speaker 3: room to go there, and so job gains at this
Speaker 3: pace feel right to me. I think they're also the
Speaker 3: kind of gains that we need to see, especially with
Speaker 3: easing inflation, to generate real pay gains, which is so
Speaker 3: important to keeping the consumer side of the economy moving forward.
Speaker 2: There are questions about the trajectory among black workers, specifically
Speaker 2: jared participation and level of employment. Are you worried about
Speaker 2: what's happening there and why are we seeing weakness in
Speaker 2: African Americans in this job market.
Speaker 3: Well, one of the things we focused on on the
Speaker 3: blog post I just mentioned today is the gap between
Speaker 3: black and white unemployment and black and white employment rates.
Speaker 3: And we did that for Hispanics as well. And if
Speaker 3: you sort of line up the unemployment rate against the
Speaker 3: black white gap, say for unemployment, what you'll see is
Speaker 3: very steep, a very steep slope, meaning that higher unemployment
Speaker 3: means a wider gap. Lower unemployment means a lower gap.
Speaker 3: So let me just throw out a number. This sounds obscure,
Speaker 3: but stay with me here because I think it's a
Speaker 3: great number. In response to your question, if you look
Speaker 3: at the average gap between black workers and white workers
Speaker 3: and the unemployment rate, it's something like six percentage points.
Speaker 3: If you then condition that average on unemployment below four percent,
Speaker 3: it's about two and a half percentage points, so a
Speaker 3: much smaller gap at low unemployment. Now, look, any month
Speaker 3: is going to bop one way or the other, but
Speaker 3: the fact that full employment disproportionately helps workers and communities
Speaker 3: of color is well established.
Speaker 2: As you right, the unemployment gap becomes less positive in
Speaker 2: tight labor markets, and the employment gap becomes less negative.
Speaker 2: Can you forecaste me around that yard? What does that
Speaker 2: look like months from now?
Speaker 3: Well, we're using three month averages to try to filter
Speaker 3: out some of the BIPs and bops. But you know, basically,
Speaker 3: I think that conditional mean I just gave you as instructive.
Speaker 3: If the unemployment rate stays below four percent or in
Speaker 3: that neighborhood, we should expect that gap to stay historically
Speaker 3: pretty low. By the way, I will say something about
Speaker 3: the Federal Reserve today. Today Governor Adriana Kougler was sworn in.
Speaker 3: We have one of the most diverse fed boards we've
Speaker 3: ever had. In her acceptance speech, she thanked the President
Speaker 3: for the nominees that he has sent up, and we
Speaker 3: are very, very happy to see a federal reserve that
Speaker 3: has this kind of diversity. I think it really makes
Speaker 3: a difference. And by the way, that's not just my thinking.
Speaker 3: There's research that shows that a federal reserve that looks
Speaker 3: more like America represents more of America.
Speaker 5: I know that your time is tight, Jared.
Speaker 2: I've got to ask you about the Psalm rule because
Speaker 2: I love to walk out with you here. And this
Speaker 2: is probably not something a lot of people talk about
Speaker 2: over dinner. But Claudia sam who has her own consulting firm,
Speaker 2: she says she thinks she's created a monster, Jared. But
Speaker 2: the rise in unemployment to three point nine percent, Bloomberg says,
Speaker 2: means joblessness is on the verge of triggering that Psalm rule,
Speaker 2: which has been a reliable predictor of a recession. Now
Speaker 2: you've had guys like me asking you when the recession
Speaker 2: is going to begin for I think two years now, right,
Speaker 2: And I realize the context of this question, but I
Speaker 2: wonder your thought on the next six months to a year.
Speaker 3: Okay, So, first of all, on the measurement, I believe
Speaker 3: the PSALM is measured in three month moving averages, and
Speaker 3: if you do that, I think Claudia herself said this
Speaker 3: morning that you know, it hasn't been triggered yet, but look,
Speaker 3: it's something we have to watch. Basically, the question you're asking,
Speaker 3: is the cooling we see in the job market, the
Speaker 3: kind of cooling that gets us on a transition to
Speaker 3: what some call a soft landing, which we've talked about
Speaker 3: as steady, stable growth, or is it something more threatening
Speaker 3: than that. Nobody knows the answer to that question. What
Speaker 3: I come back to is that when you have a
Speaker 3: persistently tight labor market and an economy that's seventy percent
Speaker 3: consumer spending, we're now generating real wage gains year over year.
Speaker 3: Real wages have gone up for the past four or
Speaker 3: five months. That helps to I think, support that virtuous
Speaker 3: cycle of a tight labor market as a tailwind and
Speaker 3: the consumers spending, and that's a big part of what's
Speaker 3: pushing us forward. I think there's momentum there, but it's
Speaker 3: something we have to watch carefully.
Speaker 5: Do you ever wake up at night and see two
Speaker 5: on the ceiling?
Speaker 2: I know I'm not supposed to ask you about the FED,
Speaker 2: but this two percent thing is it?
Speaker 5: Is it antiquated?
Speaker 3: Well, first of all, let me tell you that I
Speaker 3: sleep like a baby. I wake up every two hours screaming.
Speaker 3: So I'm not gonna I'm not going to comment on
Speaker 3: the I'm not gonna comment on the fed's target. I
Speaker 3: will say that I have a watch list, and you
Speaker 3: know it looks at all the headwinds. I mean, one
Speaker 3: interesting thing I'm getting away from from the FED because
Speaker 3: I'm not going to comment on the interest rate target.
Speaker 3: One interesting thing is that one thing that was on
Speaker 3: our list of headwinds was the UAW strike and we
Speaker 3: can cross that off. Now. That didn't mean, obviously that
Speaker 3: we were in any sort of opposition. The President wanted
Speaker 3: a win, win for both sides, and I think that's
Speaker 3: where we ended up.
Speaker 4: In fact, you know, this.
Speaker 3: White House is always happy to see labor flexing its muscle.
Speaker 3: But at one level, we have, you know, a headwind
Speaker 3: there that we could cross off the list.
Speaker 2: I'll think of you every two hours, Jared. There's no
Speaker 2: one else in Washington I could have this very conversation with,
Speaker 2: and I really always do appreciate it.
Speaker 5: Thanks for the time today.
Speaker 2: Your life from the White House, Jared Bernstein, the Chair
Speaker 2: of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. As we
Speaker 2: assemble our panel, what Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano must
Speaker 2: think the data this morning really captured a lot of
Speaker 2: attention here as we try to reset our view going
Speaker 2: forward the stock market?
Speaker 5: Scott Its view? What's the political side of this?
Speaker 2: Our Bloomberg Politics contributors make up our signature panel. Rick
Speaker 2: and Jeannie, thanks for being here. Happy Friday. Your thoughts,
Speaker 2: Genie on what you just heard from the Democratic administration
Speaker 2: that has been waiting to claim victory in the fight
Speaker 2: against inflation. We're not even near two percent, but a
Speaker 2: report like this does seem to provide some hope.
Speaker 6: What do you think it really does?
Speaker 7: First of all, Joe, you are my favorite Joe, so
Speaker 7: we just want to get that out there. But in
Speaker 7: terms of the politics, I think your conversation with Jared
Speaker 7: just sort of spells it out. He Jared to me
Speaker 7: seems brighter, happy or and a lot more joyful than
Speaker 7: we've seen him recently, and I think speaks a lot. Yeah,
Speaker 7: he's joking, he you know, he's in good spirits as
Speaker 7: they say, it's either Friday or they got the job
Speaker 7: numbers they wanted, and I suspect it maybe both, but
Speaker 7: certainly the latter. And you know, this is a good
Speaker 7: sign for the White House. It does say and the
Speaker 7: markets are reflecting this that we are having or you know,
Speaker 7: and I'm not sure the White House should say this
Speaker 7: just yet, but it seems signs that the soft landing
Speaker 7: that they've been waiting for and hoping for maybe here again.
Speaker 7: From a PR perspective, they can't get ahead of themselves
Speaker 7: on that, but these are good signs. But the challenge
Speaker 7: for the White House is they have to be very
Speaker 7: careful not to take numbers and the feeling of you know,
Speaker 7: optimism on Wall Street and bring that to Main Street
Speaker 7: because people on the ground are still feeling the pressure
Speaker 7: of inflation and mortgage rates are up in all of
Speaker 7: those things, so they have to be very careful from
Speaker 7: a PR perspective. But the signs and the numbers that
Speaker 7: we've seen reflected in your conversation with Jared are good
Speaker 7: signs for the White House and for the economy as
Speaker 7: a whole.
Speaker 2: Rick, I remember John McCain's I believe first interview after
Speaker 2: the two thousand and eight election. It was the Colbert Rapport.
Speaker 2: I think remember that show. He said, I sleep like
Speaker 2: a baby. I wake up every two hours in cry,
Speaker 2: just like Jared Bernstein just said. I know this is
Speaker 2: a joke, but should we actually read into that a
Speaker 2: little bit as the disposition of this administration when it
Speaker 2: comes to the economy, You.
Speaker 6: Know, I think yes and no.
Speaker 8: I think what Genie hints at is, it doesn't really
Speaker 8: matter politically what the administration is claiming today victory or
Speaker 8: sort of at least progress in the fight against inflation,
Speaker 8: if consumers and voters aren't feeling it. And when you
Speaker 8: read the latest Michigan consumer sentiment, and that's my bible
Speaker 8: on attitudes that people have about their own fiscal situation,
Speaker 8: it went down six percent in October, I mean, and
Speaker 8: it's already well below what an administration would hope to
Speaker 8: have going into an election year. No party in power
Speaker 8: ever wins if the Michigan consumer sentiment is not above
Speaker 8: ninety and today it's below seventy. So there's a lot
Speaker 8: of work this administration has to do to sort of
Speaker 8: commence the American public that they're making progress.
Speaker 2: Reminding us that consumers, things like consumer sentiment. As a
Speaker 2: data point, gas prices are frequently more reliable of polls
Speaker 2: than the data we look at from the polling organization's Genie.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you Bloomberg economy. Economics has been very consistent
Speaker 2: about the forecast of a recession. The question has really,
Speaker 2: ever only been about how long and how deep.
Speaker 5: I mentioned the som rule because I like to.
Speaker 2: Walk out, like I said with Jared Bernstein, but that's
Speaker 2: a pretty real thing, Genie, and you do wonder about
Speaker 2: the timing and what might coincide with presidential election cycle.
Speaker 7: That's right, and that's a huge concern for the president's
Speaker 7: campaign team and the president himself if and when this
Speaker 7: recession does come, and we all hope it doesn't, but
Speaker 7: the you know, it very possibly could. The timing is
Speaker 7: going to matter an awful lot. And the reality is,
Speaker 7: even if the recession wanes before voting in November twenty
Speaker 7: twenty four, if that's how we've all been living in
Speaker 7: a recession for so many months and weeks, coming out
Speaker 7: of it is not going to be helpful. So again,
Speaker 7: a lot of this depends and I agree with Rick
Speaker 7: on how people are feeling. You can't talk them out
Speaker 7: of feeling like their lives have gotten harder, and the administration,
Speaker 7: the campaign has got to be cognizant of that. You
Speaker 7: can't convince people that they're feeling something that they're not.
Speaker 2: The numbers aside, you know, Rick, the Administration's got a
Speaker 2: pretty good story to tell when it comes to the
Speaker 2: job market. The statement from the White House today pointing
Speaker 2: to what are they say, say, fifteen million jobs created
Speaker 2: or something. You've got an incredible string of positive reports.
Speaker 2: But the matter of inflation is the sticky part, and
Speaker 2: we know that fuel prices have been driving a lot
Speaker 2: of that. Are we going to see a release from
Speaker 2: the spr close to the election?
Speaker 8: You know, I think it could look a little political,
Speaker 8: and obviously depends upon the trajectory of those gas prices
Speaker 8: between now and then, right. I mean, like we've seen
Speaker 8: them moving around quite a bit. There's no stability to
Speaker 8: the undercurrent of oil prices these days. The Saudi's monkeying
Speaker 8: around with supply, all these international events occurring. Although I
Speaker 8: would say I've been watching price of oil since the
Speaker 8: attacks on Israel from Hamas and it's actually been much
Speaker 8: more stable than I would have thought it was. Going
Speaker 8: to be in this kind of a tumultuous geopolitical environment.
Speaker 8: So you know, I know that this is something the
Speaker 8: White House pays a lot of attention to. I know,
Speaker 8: drives a lot of sentiment amongst consumers. You know, it
Speaker 8: also drives a lot of the inflation figures that the
Speaker 8: FED has to look at. So so sure, I would
Speaker 8: think this administration is going to try and do everything
Speaker 8: they can to keep prices low, but there's a limit
Speaker 8: to what they can really impact in the market.
Speaker 2: I paid three point thirty five to fill up yesterday
Speaker 2: in New York. Right now, the average, according to Triple
Speaker 2: A three dollars seventy two cents. In California five dollars
Speaker 2: eighteen cents.
Speaker 5: That's the average.
Speaker 2: More ahead with our panel, Rick and Jeannie. I'm Joe Matthew.
Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: The new Speaker of the House finally gets a win
Speaker 2: on the board. That standalone bill to provide aid to
Speaker 2: Israel that we've been talking about for days did pass
Speaker 2: the House yesterday.
Speaker 5: It happened on this vote.
Speaker 2: The days are two hundred and twenty six.
Speaker 5: The days are one ninety six.
Speaker 4: The bill is.
Speaker 2: Passed YEP, smattering of applause. Passed with twelve Democrats, including
Speaker 2: one who talked to us on this program yesterday, and
Speaker 2: it sure sounded like she was an no.
Speaker 5: That would be w.
Speaker 2: Wasserman Schultz, the Democrat from Florida.
Speaker 5: HACKEM.
Speaker 2: Jeffries, of course, the Democratic leader in the House, was
Speaker 2: asked about that today. He held a news conference and
Speaker 2: talked about the fact that some Democrats did vote yes
Speaker 2: on that bill, but said that a.
Speaker 5: Wide majority did not.
Speaker 2: Let's reassemble the panel for their take on what happened
Speaker 2: here in what comes next, because we know that that
Speaker 2: bill is doa in the Senate, we know the President
Speaker 2: would veto it, So maybe now we can get onto
Speaker 2: something a little bit more constructive. With Rick Davis and
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano. Rick, we touched on this yesterday. It actually
Speaker 2: did pass, and I don't think that was a sure
Speaker 2: thing around this time. It took some Democrats to do it.
Speaker 2: I can only assume that they did not want to
Speaker 2: have advertisements campaign ads made about them voting against Israel.
Speaker 5: But what's the path? Now?
Speaker 2: The Senate delivers a product that will look nothing like
Speaker 2: the one in the House, and then a standoff or what.
Speaker 6: Well, it's not a standoff. The Senate will do a package.
Speaker 8: It'll include, you know, probably some appropriations bills, the Ukraine
Speaker 8: funding attached to the Israeli funding that the House passed,
Speaker 8: and maybe the additional funding that they're talking about with
Speaker 8: the administration supplemental.
Speaker 6: All that will then go into a conference committee.
Speaker 8: So they'll take the House bill and what the Senate
Speaker 8: refers to as it's poison pill on on you know,
Speaker 8: cutting the irs and and all the stuff that gets
Speaker 8: chunked into this bill from the Senate, and they'll get
Speaker 8: confres you know, House members and Senate members, and they'll
Speaker 8: hash it out and out of this, considering how different
Speaker 8: that two are, you'll probably see something come out that
Speaker 8: doesn't look anything like either bill and will be a.
Speaker 6: Compromise and and and.
Speaker 8: Likely we'll sail through because it will include you know
Speaker 8: that Israeli funding, which I think is universally supported in
Speaker 8: amongst the Senate and the House.
Speaker 2: Genie listened to Hakim Jeffreys, the Democratic leader, reacting to
Speaker 2: the bill that was passed yesterday.
Speaker 9: The overwhelming majority of House Democrats opposed the partisan political
Speaker 9: stunt that was put on the floor by my Republican
Speaker 9: colleagues unnecessarily conditioning aid to Israel, which has never been
Speaker 9: done during Israel's seventy five years of existence and a
Speaker 9: special relationship that has existed between.
Speaker 10: Our two countries.
Speaker 9: It's never been done, and there was no rational reason
Speaker 9: for it to have occurred.
Speaker 2: But now that it is done, Jeanie, I wonder if
Speaker 2: you see the same path that Rick does here, because
Speaker 2: the Senate's going to move something that includes Israel, Ukraine
Speaker 2: Taiwan border most likely, at least that's what we're hearing.
Speaker 2: And it appears that Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell have
Speaker 2: the votes that will bear no resemblance to what was
Speaker 2: passed yesterday. Well, I guess maybe one out of four
Speaker 2: when that goes into conference committee, that could be interesting.
Speaker 7: What's going to happen, It's going to be very interesting.
Speaker 7: On the plus side, you know, there is not a
Speaker 7: lot of daylight between the amount of funding that the
Speaker 7: Administration and Democrats and Republicans quite frankly, and the House
Speaker 7: want for Israel. The question was the pay because they're
Speaker 7: both at about fourteen billion, and of course the breakdown
Speaker 7: is fairly similar. It was the pay for, of course,
Speaker 7: and it was also the lack of attachment to Ukraine funding.
Speaker 7: So those are going to be the things that they're
Speaker 7: going to have to deal with in conference. There should,
Speaker 7: in normal circumstances, be a pathway forward on this, because
Speaker 7: again there is violent agreement in the House and Senate.
Speaker 7: I'm getting this aid to Israel, you know that said,
Speaker 7: I think the Democrats who voted for it certainly did
Speaker 7: not want to vote against a package for Israel. And
Speaker 7: as the Minority leader said, it's the first time they've seen,
Speaker 7: or we've seen a conditional package of support for Israel.
Speaker 7: But you know, I am not critical of that conditional package.
Speaker 7: We should have pay force. The problem is this pay
Speaker 7: for is anything, but it's going to cost taxpayers, if
Speaker 7: you believe the CBO, twenty six billion, so not save
Speaker 7: us a dime. So let's have a conversation about real
Speaker 7: pay for it, and that is something that we should
Speaker 7: see considered by the House and the Senate. Who knows
Speaker 7: if they will get there, because of course it is
Speaker 7: not something historically we have done when it comes to
Speaker 7: aid for Israel for a variety of reasons.
Speaker 2: Well, that's where you have Hakeem Jeffreys calling it a
Speaker 2: partisan political stunt. Call it what you will, Rick, I
Speaker 2: just wonder what it means for the future of Ukraine funding,
Speaker 2: which appears to be will or will be packaged with
Speaker 2: border money, at least in a House version. If all
Speaker 2: these get broken up, can they pass on their own.
Speaker 2: I'm just trying to figure out if this thing, to
Speaker 2: your point, looks nothing like either bill when it comes
Speaker 2: out of the wash, what we're actually going to be
Speaker 2: left with.
Speaker 8: Yeah, look, I mean I think legitimately, if each of
Speaker 8: these bills were carved up and they were all voted
Speaker 8: on in the House of Representatives, one by one, they
Speaker 8: would all pass. The limitation on Ukraine is what the
Speaker 8: Speaker has already said, which is he wants the majority
Speaker 8: of his caucus to be behind it. Well, that's an
Speaker 8: extra step, right, If you just put that Ukraine funding
Speaker 8: on the floor, it would get overwhelming House support because
Speaker 8: you'd have all the Democrats, almost all the Democrats, and
Speaker 8: close to if not over half the Republicans. So when
Speaker 8: you start doing limitations like oh, well, we're going to
Speaker 8: check with the caucus verse before we put anything down,
Speaker 8: and then you're talking about a very close vote. So
Speaker 8: I think that it's not going to come to that.
Speaker 8: I think you're going to get more of a package
Speaker 8: deal out of the conference and that'll go straight to
Speaker 8: the floor because it'll just be ratification of the conference
Speaker 8: and that's usually an up or down vote. So I
Speaker 8: would say there are some debates going on in the
Speaker 8: Senate around this Israeli aid. I mean, one of the
Speaker 8: things you know in the fourteen billion is a lot
Speaker 8: of humanitarian aid, and there's some issues as to whether
Speaker 8: or not we have the controls on that humanitarian aid
Speaker 8: to ensure that Hamas doesn't run off with it. So
Speaker 8: it's not done yet because of some of those kinds
Speaker 8: of limitations, but I think that Senate will act soon.
Speaker 8: The downside is this conference could last longer than anybody wants.
Speaker 8: The aid to be delayed a couple of weeks, and
Speaker 8: so I think that that it'll be interesting to see
Speaker 8: how quickly they can move.
Speaker 2: Looking like they will need it by then Hackem. Jeffreys
Speaker 2: talked about a shutdown as well today. Gene, you remember
Speaker 2: this laddered laddered CR we talked about yesterday. Nobody's exactly sure,
Speaker 2: exactly sure what it is. It would, I guess mean
Speaker 2: different timing on shutdowns for different departments.
Speaker 5: He's not buying it here.
Speaker 10: He is this notion of a so called laddered CR like.
Speaker 9: The novelty being delicate with my words here, the novelty
Speaker 9: of my friends on the other side of the ale
Speaker 9: in terms of how they come up with language that
Speaker 9: disguise their intentions.
Speaker 10: Translation, they want to shut the government.
Speaker 5: Down just a minute left, Jeanie.
Speaker 2: I don't know if you agree, but that doesn't sound
Speaker 2: like somebody who's getting off on the right foot with
Speaker 2: the new.
Speaker 5: Speaker, does it.
Speaker 7: Well, you know, I have to say, Joe, when you
Speaker 7: first yesterday to mention the term ladder CR, I did
Speaker 7: something no professor should ever do. I madly googling what
Speaker 7: is this thing? Why are they talking about? And all
Speaker 7: I can think is they don't just want one shutdown,
Speaker 7: they want multiple shutsdowns, lasting different amounts of times and
Speaker 7: in different departments. So if one shutdown isn't enough for you,
Speaker 7: they're going to have a multiple, and that'll be your
Speaker 7: winter and your fall, Joe Matthew, as you seek to
Speaker 7: cover this, That's all I can say.
Speaker 5: Great.
Speaker 2: I did speak with a Republican member this morning, Rick,
Speaker 2: who just shook his head when I said, do you
Speaker 2: know what a laddered CI said? He shook his head
Speaker 2: and he said, that's not happening in our last couple seconds.
Speaker 4: Do you agree?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 6: I agree.
Speaker 8: I mean this is just conjecture, and everybody's just going
Speaker 8: to be anxious to get this monkey off their back.
Speaker 8: The CR expiring on the seventeenth November, so they'll just
Speaker 8: attach a new date, probably January fifteenth or something to
Speaker 8: it and call it today and keep arguing over appropriations bills.
Speaker 8: I mean, what they need to do is do the
Speaker 8: government's work and do these appropriations bills so they don't
Speaker 8: have to keep doing crs. But no, ladderd CR was
Speaker 8: dead before it arrived.
Speaker 5: It's very amazing. Jacob will keep his ladder.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Schanzano will be back with more
Speaker 2: on what's actually happening in Israel.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: Anthony Blincoln has returned to Tel Aviv, and the Secretary
Speaker 2: of State delivered news as soon as he arrived, news
Speaker 2: that thirty five Americans were killed in the Hamas terror
Speaker 2: attack against Israel. On the seventh of October. The number
Speaker 2: had stood at thirty two. It is now at thirty five,
Speaker 2: something he learned after meeting with leaders in Israel looking
Speaker 2: at images of him sitting down with Benjamin Dettanyahu in
Speaker 2: Tel Aviv on the terminal as Blinkin shifts the focus
Speaker 2: to protecting civilians on this trip.
Speaker 11: Hamas doesn't care one second or one iota for the
Speaker 11: welfare for the well being of the Palestinian people. It
Speaker 11: cynically and monstrously uses them as human shields, putting its
Speaker 11: commanders in command posts, its weapons and ammunition within or
Speaker 11: beneath residential buildings, schools, mosques, hospitals. But civilians should not
Speaker 11: suffer the consequences for its inhumanity and its brutality. We
Speaker 11: provided Israel advice that only the best of friends can
Speaker 11: offer on how to minimize civilian deaths while still achieving
Speaker 11: its objectives of finding and finishing Hamas terras and their
Speaker 11: infrastructure of violence.
Speaker 2: This is not getting easier for Israel.
Speaker 5: Quite the contrary.
Speaker 2: Blncoln said on the outset of this trip, I was
Speaker 2: getting on the airplane that his purpose was not only
Speaker 2: to deliver that message on protecting civilians, but to prevent escalation.
Speaker 2: And what we're hearing today from Hesbelah is deeply concerning
Speaker 2: Hezbelah's leader issuing a warning to Israel that the Lebanon
Speaker 2: based militant group is ready for quote all possibilities unquote,
Speaker 2: suggesting the daily cross border fire between the two could
Speaker 2: tip into a full blown war. Let's reassemble our panel
Speaker 2: with Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis. I believe it was
Speaker 2: Michael Knights yesterday, Rick, who was talking about proxy groups
Speaker 2: working for Iran, groups like Hesbelah, like Hamas, that this
Speaker 2: could be a very difficult weekend ahead. Is that your concern?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 8: I thought the point he made very knowledgeable about these
Speaker 8: you know, proxy groups that that Iran is you know
Speaker 8: funding and training. Is that they are maybe the best
Speaker 8: thing that ever happened for Iran to be able to
Speaker 8: threaten its neighbors in a way that they don't get
Speaker 8: to blame, but also the worst night for nightmare for
Speaker 8: Iran right now, because Iran does not want a full
Speaker 8: scale war. They do not want to be drawn in
Speaker 8: to a conflict. This is not what they hope to
Speaker 8: achieve right now. So so I'm sure they were just
Speaker 8: as curious about what the leader of Hesbalah was saying
Speaker 8: this morning as we were, because if they had declared war,
Speaker 8: that would have dragged Iran right into this thing, and
Speaker 8: that's obviously not in their global self interest. So I
Speaker 8: think this is this is a big chess game of
Speaker 8: major powers, and these these proxy groups are both giving
Speaker 8: them some options but also creating a lot of pressure
Speaker 8: for them, in this case Iran that they don't want
Speaker 8: to have. So it didn't surprise me that they didn't
Speaker 8: clare war today. But I don't think we can take
Speaker 8: our eye off of that ball.
Speaker 2: Wow has well as Secretary General Jeanie describing quote a
Speaker 2: new phase of fighting against this enemy unquote. When Secretary
Speaker 2: Blinken shows up in Tel Aviv and starts to urge restraint.
Speaker 2: Is that message delivered when we're reading lines like this.
Speaker 7: You know, I think he and the President have tried hard,
Speaker 7: and I give them a lot of credit to walk
Speaker 7: this very difficult line of showing full throated support for
Speaker 7: Israel in this horrific time and also to urge Israel
Speaker 7: to be restrained and to slow this down. But what
Speaker 7: we saw from Benjamin and Yahu when he went to
Speaker 7: social media last night, I believe it was and then
Speaker 7: again in his statements today where he as really seems
Speaker 7: to rejected what the President and Anthony Blinkn are urging
Speaker 7: Israel to do with this pause, and again it was
Speaker 7: a temporary pause for humanitarian reasons. I'm not sure the
Speaker 7: message is getting through in the way the administration hopes.
Speaker 7: And that's why I think, you know, the administration and
Speaker 7: the United States as a whole, regardless of who's in
Speaker 7: power in the presidency, are going to have to really
Speaker 7: think long and hard about doing something we've never done
Speaker 7: in the US, and that is putting some conditions on
Speaker 7: this aid for Israel. And I'm not talking about pay
Speaker 7: for US. I'm talking about ensuring that Israel promises not
Speaker 7: to build new settlements and to work towards a two
Speaker 7: states solution. Otherwise they are not going to be able
Speaker 7: to see an end to this, and neither will we.
Speaker 7: It's not in our interest to do it in this way.
Speaker 7: And this is not about whether Israel has a right
Speaker 7: to retaliate. It's how they do it. And there is
Speaker 7: no good end the way that it seems to be
Speaker 7: pushed forward now, and the administration knows that. Behind the scenes,
Speaker 7: they're saying that whether it's getting through is another thing.
Speaker 7: And it's understandable again because on September twelfth, twenty eleven,
Speaker 7: we would have done exactly what we did, which is
Speaker 7: push forward and a rushed away and it's really hard
Speaker 7: to stop. It's understandable. But for all of our interests,
Speaker 7: they are asking for the right thing, and they may
Speaker 7: have to condition it to see it through.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, you make a great point, Anthony Blincoln. Today,
Speaker 2: Rick says the US is providing Israel, what quote, advice
Speaker 2: that only the best of friends can offer unquote, the
Speaker 2: United States was not interested in advice following nine to eleven,
Speaker 2: is Israel, sure, I.
Speaker 8: Mean we after nine to eleven, when we went into Afghanistan.
Speaker 6: We did it as a coalition.
Speaker 8: We did it with a lot of other countries joining
Speaker 8: us to the fight global terror. In this case, Israel
Speaker 8: elected to good on their own, although I do believe
Speaker 8: that there were a lot of countries like US who
Speaker 8: are willing to help and support Israel. So it isn't
Speaker 8: a go to loan strategy. And I would say too,
Speaker 8: we have to constantly remember that Hamas is calling the
Speaker 8: shots in gazip right. The reason you have a refugee
Speaker 8: crisis in Gaza is because of Hamas. They control the
Speaker 8: rapa game. They're the ones that don't allow Americans to
Speaker 8: get on the list to get out. Every day, every
Speaker 8: single day, Americans are trapped in Gaza because of Hamas,
Speaker 8: not because of Israel, not because of what they're doing
Speaker 8: in Gaza right now. And so I think that we
Speaker 8: have to constantly remind ourselves that this is a problem
Speaker 8: created by Hamas being managed now by Hamas, and only
Speaker 8: can be solved by Hamas withdrawing and getting out of Gaza.
Speaker 8: And in the case of the Israelis, they've made it
Speaker 8: that they have to root them out. You know a
Speaker 8: lot of people are talking about, oh, we've got to
Speaker 8: get fuel to hospitals.
Speaker 5: Hamas is holding that right.
Speaker 2: It's an important thing to consider when we talk about
Speaker 2: pausing right, because you can pause the bombing, but you
Speaker 2: still may see no movement in the people. Rick Davis
Speaker 2: and Genie Shanz No no great analysis on the fastest show
Speaker 2: in politics.
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 4: The Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
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Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe
Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington alongside Kaylee Lines. It's good to see
Speaker 2: a job's day, Kaylee. That means it's Friday, and we're
Speaker 2: happy with that. And I guess I don't know. Everyone
Speaker 2: seems to be happy with this jobs report. It's amazing
Speaker 2: what a weaker that expected number will do. And we're
Speaker 2: seeing the impact here of the UAW strike. Yep, this
Speaker 2: all fallen on Washington a day after House Republicans managed
Speaker 2: to pass the bill with aid for Israel and.
Speaker 12: No one else, right, And the concern with that bill
Speaker 12: in particular is that they required a little something in
Speaker 12: order to give that aid to Israel, more than fourteen
Speaker 12: billion dollars, and that was fourteen billion dollars coming out
Speaker 12: of the funding for the irs. They wanted a pay for,
Speaker 12: which is the problem that a lot of Democrats have
Speaker 12: had with it. Why it's probably dead on arrival in
Speaker 12: the Senate and if it ever even got to President
Speaker 12: Biden's desk, which it will not, as we understand, Joe.
Speaker 12: But the whole concern is about the fiscal trajectory Republicans
Speaker 12: wanting to exercise that fiscal discipline, and that does in
Speaker 12: some ways feedback to the other economic conversations we're considering here.
Speaker 2: There were some Democrats voted for it, Yeah, twelve, I
Speaker 2: think yes, although, as Hakeim Jeffrey said earlier, the Democratic
Speaker 2: leader in the House, that was the exception.
Speaker 9: He overwhelming majority of House Democrats opposed the partisan political
Speaker 9: stunt that was put on the floor by my Republican
Speaker 9: colleagues unnecessarily conditioning aid to Israel, which has never been
Speaker 9: done during Israel's seventy five years of existence, and a
Speaker 9: special relationship that has existed between our two countries. It's
Speaker 9: never been done and there was no rational reason for
Speaker 9: it to have occurred.
Speaker 5: Why don't we go to the Capitol see what the
Speaker 5: congressman thinks about this.
Speaker 2: Congressman, I'mibarrat, Democrat from California's sixth districts, joining us from
Speaker 2: the Canon House Office Rotunda. It's great to see you, Congressman.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to Bloomberg. Is that why you didn't like
Speaker 2: this bill?
Speaker 13: Well, thanks for having me on. I'd associate myself with
Speaker 13: Leader Jeffries comments, and you know, let's not play politics here.
Speaker 13: We've got a crisis in the Middle East. Bipartisan support
Speaker 13: for Israel's incredibly important when you need to get this
Speaker 13: funding to them as quickly as possible, and it should
Speaker 13: have been a clean funding bill. I also would say,
Speaker 13: you know, the conflict in Ukraine with the illegal Russian
Speaker 13: invasion is infinitely tied with what we're seeing in Israel
Speaker 13: in terms of supply chains, munitions, defense production line.
Speaker 14: So I would pass both of those together.
Speaker 4: Along with border security.
Speaker 13: I mean, we do have a problem with the southern
Speaker 13: border and we should provide funding for that.
Speaker 12: Well, the issue Congressman is the Speaker has said that
Speaker 12: he would like to have Israel separately. He would not
Speaker 12: like to put something on the floor that ties Israel
Speaker 12: and Ukraine funding together, and it's pretty clear that he
Speaker 12: wants a pay for So I understand that a lot
Speaker 12: of your colleagues had issue with specifically that pay for
Speaker 12: being money taken from the funding of the IRS. But
Speaker 12: is there one you could agree to given what you
Speaker 12: just said about expediency being necessary here?
Speaker 4: You know, I think there's a lot that we could do.
Speaker 4: And the broader issue is that debt.
Speaker 13: And the deficit, and that's going to be a bigger challenge.
Speaker 4: I am a co sponsor of.
Speaker 13: A bipartisan bill to create a debt Commission, something similar
Speaker 13: to the Simpson Bowls Commission. It's going to take an
Speaker 13: external group of experts along with members of Congress to
Speaker 13: really look at some hard choices, whether that's raising taxes,
Speaker 13: whether that's strengthening Social Security and Medicare through changes. But
Speaker 13: it is going to take something like that, and I
Speaker 13: think that's the broader conversation that we should be thinking
Speaker 13: about the problem with the IRS. Pay for is even
Speaker 13: according to the CBO, it doesn't actually lower the deficit.
Speaker 13: It actually adds to the deficit because you're taking enforcement away.
Speaker 2: How do you make that different than Simpson bulls though, Congressman,
Speaker 2: how do you make that stick in a Washington where
Speaker 2: there's less bipartisan action. It seems that ever, we can't
Speaker 2: even figure out how to keep the government open half
Speaker 2: the time. The chaos that we've seen in the House
Speaker 2: over the last couple of weeks would make one wonder
Speaker 2: how that works, unless I guess you'll lock everybody in
Speaker 2: a panic room until they figure it out.
Speaker 4: Well, I think you have.
Speaker 13: To pair with outside experts, keep it nonpartisan, have them
Speaker 13: work together to really get us to start addressing the
Speaker 13: debt and the deficit, because that is going to be
Speaker 13: a burden on our children over time. And then you
Speaker 13: force whatever comes out of that committee to the floor
Speaker 13: for up or down vote, because if it comes to
Speaker 13: the floor and everyone starts playing around with it, I
Speaker 13: don't think we'll ever get to where we need to
Speaker 13: go again. The issue at hand though, right now is
Speaker 13: our friends, our allies in Israel and Ukraine need help immediately,
Speaker 13: so we should get that funding to them as quickly
Speaker 13: as possible.
Speaker 12: Well, Congressmen, you call Israel a friend, and that's very
Speaker 12: similar to the language that Secretary of St. Anthony Blincoln
Speaker 12: was using when he visited was there earlier today, talking
Speaker 12: about how the US does stand behind Israel and its
Speaker 12: right to defend himself, also pushing though for humanitarian pauses
Speaker 12: in the fighting. Do you think there is a risk
Speaker 12: of a sentiment turn here when it comes to Israel
Speaker 12: given the sheer magnitude of the civilian humanitarian casualties we
Speaker 12: are seeing in Gaza.
Speaker 13: You know, I really do worry about what we're seeing
Speaker 13: in Gaza in terms of just to share loss of
Speaker 13: life of innocent civilians.
Speaker 4: Israel does have.
Speaker 13: A right to exist, Israel has a right to defend itself,
Speaker 13: but you also worry about the Palestinians individuals right to
Speaker 13: live with peace and dignity.
Speaker 4: And I just worry that, you know, getting.
Speaker 13: To a place where Israelis and Palestinians will ever be
Speaker 13: able to live.
Speaker 4: Side by side peacefully.
Speaker 14: He's getting further and further away.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 13: You know, it's not going to be an easy execution
Speaker 13: of getting to eliminate.
Speaker 4: Hamas, but you know there are different ways to do that.
Speaker 2: We should note to our viewers and listeners the congressman
Speaker 2: serves on both Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees in the House.
Speaker 2: But that you should also know as well, a congressmen,
Speaker 2: that you spent a lot of time helping to settle
Speaker 2: Afghan refugees, and I know you made it a priority
Speaker 2: in your district in California. How worried are you right
Speaker 2: now about the the unwelcoming nature that we're seeing from
Speaker 2: Israel's neighbors when it comes to Palestinian refugees.
Speaker 5: Where will they go?
Speaker 14: You know, I think it's really unfortunate.
Speaker 13: You know, I think we would love to continue to
Speaker 13: put pressure on Egypt to accept and allow Palestinian civilians
Speaker 13: in a sense and refugees.
Speaker 4: To leave the battle zone.
Speaker 13: We would also like to see the other Arab states
Speaker 13: step up and help here. We're not seeing that right now,
Speaker 13: and I think that's unfortunate.
Speaker 5: Should the US play a role in that?
Speaker 13: Certainly the US will continue to allow Palestinian refugees and
Speaker 13: others seeking shelter and refuge to come to the United States.
Speaker 13: But in the immediate concern, where there's an ongoing battle,
Speaker 13: you do want to get civilians, women, children, the elderly
Speaker 13: out of harm's way, and that really is the Rafa crossing.
Speaker 12: In Egypt, Congris when you speak of the other Arab states,
Speaker 12: And of course, the other thing that Secretary of State
Speaker 12: Lincoln was talking about in Israel today is his desire
Speaker 12: to not see this conflict expand beyond Israel and Hamas.
Speaker 12: But we already know that there's been a decent amount
Speaker 12: of activity on the border with Lebanon. The Secretary General
Speaker 12: of Hesbelah was suggesting that another front potentially could open,
Speaker 12: or at least it is a possibility. What is your
Speaker 12: degree of concern the concern of the House Foreign Affairs
Speaker 12: Committee that we are going to see this conflict expand
Speaker 12: more regionally.
Speaker 13: You know, I think President Biden's been decisive in moving
Speaker 13: assets to the region. Our mission as the United States
Speaker 13: is clear that we will do everything we can to
Speaker 13: prevent a second front opening. You know, I was in
Speaker 13: Israel this past summer on the northern border with Lebanon.
Speaker 13: You saw some of the tunnels that Hesbela has been doing.
Speaker 13: They've been preparing for things for a long time. The
Speaker 13: message to Hesbelahs don't do anything right now. The message
Speaker 13: or Nana is stay out of this and proxy Iranian
Speaker 13: proxy groups in Syria, et cetera. You've already seen the
Speaker 13: United States have to take action against ucci rebels that
Speaker 13: have tried to fly drones and attack Israel.
Speaker 4: So I think we will continue to do what we
Speaker 4: have to do to.
Speaker 13: Prevent a second front from opening, and you know, to
Speaker 13: try to find a different path forward here.
Speaker 2: Well, i'll tell you the language that we're hearing from
Speaker 2: Hesbelah is downright scary. Congressman Hesbela's leader issuing a warning
Speaker 2: to Israel, saying that they are now ready for all possibilities,
Speaker 2: suggesting that this daily cross border fire could actually spiral
Speaker 2: into a full blown war in what we've been calling
Speaker 2: a second or I guess third front in this case.
Speaker 5: How real is that threat?
Speaker 4: You know?
Speaker 14: I think I think we take it very seriously.
Speaker 13: I think we take some of the attacks in Syria
Speaker 13: on US assets and elsewhere very seriously. You know, I
Speaker 13: think this is also a time where a potential pause
Speaker 13: and some of the actions that the Israelis are taking
Speaker 13: allow humanitarian aid to get into civilians, food, water, medicines,
Speaker 13: and then perhaps find a different path forward. None of
Speaker 13: us is suggesting Israel doesn't have a right to defend itself.
Speaker 13: None of US is suggesting that Israel doesn't have a
Speaker 13: right to protect its home civilians.
Speaker 14: But perhaps there's a different way to path.
Speaker 12: Forward as we look at pass forward. Congressman, I want
Speaker 12: to return to something you brought up at the beginning
Speaker 12: of this conversation, the idea that Israel is not the
Speaker 12: only US ally that is engaged in a war right now.
Speaker 12: It is also Ukraine, which we know is a much
Speaker 12: more contentious issue in terms of funding in the House
Speaker 12: of Representatives. There's been a lot of talk of the
Speaker 12: Senate getting ready to send a bill to your chamber
Speaker 12: that would tie a lot of these things together, border security, Ukraine,
Speaker 12: and Israel, as mentioned. Do you worry if it arrives
Speaker 12: in that form in the House that it makes it
Speaker 12: less likely that any aid any of that will get
Speaker 12: past because of the Ukraine issue particular in particular, how
Speaker 12: should that be worked around?
Speaker 13: You know, again, I think the broad majority of members
Speaker 13: of the House of Representatives support both funding for Ukraine
Speaker 13: and Israel as well as support funding for the border.
Speaker 13: I understand, and we saw it play out in the
Speaker 13: Republican majority that there are a fair number of Republicans.
Speaker 13: I think it's still the minority of the Republican Party
Speaker 13: that do not want to fund Ukraine, and we saw
Speaker 13: a few Republicans vote against funding Israel as well.
Speaker 14: I would hope we could pass it all together.
Speaker 13: If we have to take each bill up individually, Let's
Speaker 13: take clean bills that don't have any writers on there,
Speaker 13: and then you know, if it is about the debt
Speaker 13: and the depth is that, we can come back and
Speaker 13: revisit that. But we should ought to look at everything
Speaker 13: in total. But let's get that funding to Ukraine and Israel.
Speaker 2: We're spending time with Congressman Amiberra, Democrat from California.
Speaker 5: You're a leader in the House.
Speaker 2: Hakim Jeffreys held a briefing earlier today Congressman and said
Speaker 2: that the Republican conference in the House wants a shutdown.
Speaker 2: Otherwise this bizarre laddered continuing resolution that we've been talking
Speaker 2: about the last twenty four hours offered by the Speaker
Speaker 2: probably wouldn't have been suggested. He says, that's the evidence.
Speaker 2: With that said, we've heard repeatedly that Ukraine funding and
Speaker 2: some of these other items could actually be attached to
Speaker 2: a continuing resolution. Is that the last train out of
Speaker 2: the station. Do you think the government got shut down
Speaker 2: or is that a potential solution.
Speaker 4: I sure hope not.
Speaker 13: I mean, look at everything that's taking place in the world.
Speaker 13: We've got real challenges. A shutdown would also do damage
Speaker 13: to our own economy at a time where ours is
Speaker 13: the best economy in the.
Speaker 4: World right now.
Speaker 13: I don't understand this laddered continuing resolution proposal that the
Speaker 13: Speaker's put forward.
Speaker 4: We've never done anything like that.
Speaker 2: I would we haven't found anyone who understands what that
Speaker 2: is yet exactly.
Speaker 13: I would urge a Speaker to stick to what he
Speaker 13: promised when he ran.
Speaker 14: Let's do a continuing resolution.
Speaker 13: I think you would find broad support to do a
Speaker 13: clean cr that would go to January, perhaps to April,
Speaker 13: and then let's find some breathing room. Let's negotiate a
Speaker 13: real budget, real appropriation bills, and that's where we can
Speaker 13: have some of this compromise debate, et cetera.
Speaker 4: And then let's vote on those bills.
Speaker 12: Congressman, just to pivot from the conversations of funding, although
Speaker 12: obviously they are very much live, I'd like to return
Speaker 12: to something else that happened earlier this week in the
Speaker 12: House of Representatives, when an expulsion resolution for Congressman George
Speaker 12: Santos was put on the floor obviously did not succeed.
Speaker 12: You voted president at that vote. Is that correct?
Speaker 4: That is correct?
Speaker 12: And why not vote to get him out of there?
Speaker 13: You know, so I do believe in the premise innocent
Speaker 13: until proven guilty. I voted presents because I do think
Speaker 13: there's a preponderance of evidence that suggests that he was guilty,
Speaker 13: and he has brought shame to the Chamber and shame
Speaker 13: to the Capitol that said, the Ethics Committee is doing
Speaker 13: their investigation, they haven't provided their findings. He does deserve
Speaker 13: his day in court, and you know, I didn't want
Speaker 13: to generate him, but I also think he's innocent until
Speaker 13: proven guilty.
Speaker 4: So I voted present.
Speaker 2: In our last moment, Congressman, I've got to ask you
Speaker 2: about the fox. A lot of people associate you for
Speaker 2: better or worse, God knows, he's a medical doctor. Associate
Speaker 2: you with being bit by a rabid fox last year
Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill. There are reports that there's another one
Speaker 2: back up there. Are you looking over your shoulder when.
Speaker 4: You walk around?
Speaker 13: I certainly will, and you can only imagine how many
Speaker 13: pictures of that fox got texted to me last night.
Speaker 13: So everyone be on the lookout, and yeah, don't try
Speaker 13: to go interact with that fox.
Speaker 2: Is that like the worst ever? The raby shot? That's
Speaker 2: that's supposed to be the most painful, right.
Speaker 13: But they're not a lot of funs so, and it's
Speaker 13: a lot of shots. So yeah, let's keep everyone s.
Speaker 2: Patrick McHenry was bit by a rabid squirrel and told
Speaker 2: us that it's not true. They don't do it on
Speaker 2: the stomach anymore. The shot goes in the wound. Doctor,
Speaker 2: Is that right?
Speaker 13: That that's correct? They do, I mean fabul shots around
Speaker 13: the wound. But then you've got to take your ravy shots.
Speaker 13: I mean it's four additional shots.
Speaker 10: Wow.
Speaker 2: Wow, all right, we'll be looking out for you. Congressman,
Speaker 2: please be careful, doctor Ami Bera with this Democrat from California,
Speaker 2: Kaylee that I think that would send me right out of.
Speaker 12: Washington carrying like Fox.
Speaker 5: You're up there more than I am.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Kerry may So you're getting the Fox is guilty.
Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: The Secretary of State in Tel Aviv ahead of what
Speaker 2: could be a difficult weekend in Gaza, and I guess Kaylee,
Speaker 2: for that matter, in Israel, the Iron Dome is not
Speaker 2: one hundred percent successful, and they're still and during rocket
Speaker 2: attacks as we see bombings continue in Gaza. Questions about
Speaker 2: the pause, you asked Ami Bearra about this, Uh, you know,
Speaker 2: Rick Davis made an interesting point that Hamas is the
Speaker 2: biggest reason why people are.
Speaker 5: Not getting out of Gaza.
Speaker 2: So even if there is a pause, that doesn't guarantee
Speaker 2: that there will be a flow of people.
Speaker 12: I guess that's true, or that aid can necessarily get in. Conversely, right,
Speaker 12: nothing as guaranteed in this kind of conflict when you're
Speaker 12: of course dealing with an organization that has been designated
Speaker 12: as a terrorist organization by the US and Europe. But
Speaker 12: it also raises the question of are these calls for
Speaker 12: a pause just going to grow more and more intense
Speaker 12: if we get another really hard to watch and read
Speaker 12: about weekend, and of course even more so to experience
Speaker 12: if you find yourself in Israel Orgaza right now. But
Speaker 12: there are growing calls even from now Senate Democrats others
Speaker 12: for greater humanitarian consideration.
Speaker 2: Well, you wonder as well if those calls could be
Speaker 2: drowned out by something worse to the north. It's very
Speaker 2: hard to tell what has Bela has planned. Yeah, but
Speaker 2: some very threatening talk today. As Anthony Blinken addresses Israel's
Speaker 2: right to defend himself, this is the Secretary of State.
Speaker 5: Earlier today in Tel.
Speaker 11: Aviv, days after Hamas's attack on a Cober seventh, I
Speaker 11: came to Israel, followed soon thereafter by President to make
Speaker 11: clear that as long as the United States stands, Israel
Speaker 11: will never stand alone. Today, in my fourth visit Israel
Speaker 11: since October seventh, I reiterated that in all my discussions
Speaker 11: with Prime Mister Yahu, President Herzog, the Security Cabinet, I
Speaker 11: reiterated and made clear our support for Israel's right to
Speaker 11: defend itself, indeed its obligation to defend itself.
Speaker 2: That always comes with a canveat, though, ye when it's
Speaker 2: followed by the urge for restraint. Lester Munson joins, he's
Speaker 2: been great on this, and we wonder what he's got
Speaker 2: in mind ahead of this weekend. Co Head of the
Speaker 2: international practice at BGR Government Relations.
Speaker 5: Spent a lot of time in the Senate.
Speaker 2: In fact, he was staff director of the Senate Foreign
Speaker 2: Relations Committee and has a unique view here of geopolitics. Lester,
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Thanks for coming on this Friday.
Speaker 2: This is a heck of a balancing act here in
Speaker 2: the US is trying to conduct it from overseas. When
Speaker 2: you hear threatening language today like we did from Hesbola,
Speaker 2: talking about all possibilities a new phase of fighting against
Speaker 2: the enemy, you wonder if that message that Anthony Blincoln
Speaker 2: is trying to deliver is being received.
Speaker 15: Yeah, he's he's got a really tough job. I think
Speaker 15: this is his third trip to the region since the
Speaker 15: terrorist attack in Israel on October seventh. He's trying to
Speaker 15: do several things at once.
Speaker 1: One is.
Speaker 15: Solidify the bilateral relationship with Israel. The Biden administration had
Speaker 15: some turmoil on that before the attack.
Speaker 10: He's trying to.
Speaker 15: Arrange for some sort of humanitarian relief for those in
Speaker 15: Gaza who are innocent and who may be victims here
Speaker 15: of the war that is going on. But he's also
Speaker 15: there to talk about what the future governance situation in
Speaker 15: Gaza will be. And so these the conversations he's having,
Speaker 15: some of them are for public digestion and for display
Speaker 15: to Biden voters, to people in the region. Other things
Speaker 15: are behind the scenes, very clear eyed, hopefully conversations with
Speaker 15: friends and allies and perhaps even some frenemies in the
Speaker 15: region to set up the architecture of what is to
Speaker 15: come once the Israeli counter strike in Gaza is over.
Speaker 15: So there's there's a high degree of difficulty here for
Speaker 15: Secretary Blincoln and the administration. Frankly, they've been doing okay
Speaker 15: so far. I might have some criticism of some of
Speaker 15: the things that are doing on the domestic front, but
Speaker 15: there's political reasons for that. And I think, you know,
Speaker 15: just as someone as an American, you wish the best
Speaker 15: for the administration and the president and his team. And
Speaker 15: so I'm hopeful that this trip goes well well.
Speaker 12: And Lester, considering that, as joej just mentioned, as has
Speaker 12: been reiterated time and again, the US has essentially expressed
Speaker 12: uncond unconditional support for Israel, and unconditional by definition means
Speaker 12: you don't attach any conditions to that. So if there
Speaker 12: is something like an urge from the US for Israel
Speaker 12: to provide these humanitarian pauses in strikes. Is there any real,
Speaker 12: real leverage here to make Israel do that realistically, or
Speaker 12: is whatever Israel wants to do, what Israel is going
Speaker 12: to do in the US isn't actually in a position
Speaker 12: to do that much about it.
Speaker 6: It's a great question.
Speaker 15: I think the reality here is being met in Yahoo's
Speaker 15: in a tough spot, and he is my sense is
Speaker 15: he and his administrator, he and his war cabinet. Of course,
Speaker 15: he's not the sole decision maker anymore because they've got
Speaker 15: a coalition arrangement in Israel making these decisions. But that
Speaker 15: government is working in lockstep with the Biden administration. So
Speaker 15: while the conversation about pauses and ceasefires and that kind
Speaker 15: of thing is perhaps for public consumption, behind the scenes
Speaker 15: there is a different I think there's a different conversation happening.
Speaker 15: This is what statesmen and women have to do to
Speaker 15: get the job done. And I think the net and
Speaker 15: Yahoo and his allies new allies in the government are
Speaker 15: actually working pretty well in concert with the Biden administration.
Speaker 15: It's quite complex. It is not the same thing that
Speaker 15: we are seeing for public display.
Speaker 2: Secretary of Blincoln today not only speaking to the need
Speaker 2: to protect civilians, but said part of his trip was
Speaker 2: an attempt to keep this from escalating. Is that possible, Lester,
Speaker 2: what's your realistic view.
Speaker 15: I think it is possible. That's the reason this diplomatic
Speaker 15: channel through Cutter is still active. It's why the administration
Speaker 15: is not shutting down things that it may be in
Speaker 15: a more perfect world wouldn't have to do. There are
Speaker 15: ongoing conversations with all kinds of different different factions of
Speaker 15: this situation in the Middle East. No one wants this
Speaker 15: to metastasize into something bigger, except maybe in Tehran. Tehran
Speaker 15: is goading its clients in Yemen, in Lebanon to do more.
Speaker 15: The rest of the region, I promise, is working behind
Speaker 15: the scenes to mitigate that instinct from Tehran. They can't
Speaker 15: say that in public necessarily, but that's what's going on.
Speaker 12: Okay, So, Lester, there's what's going on in the Middle East,
Speaker 12: and then there's what's going on here at home in
Speaker 12: the conversation around what's going on in the Middle East.
Speaker 12: Providing funding for Israel, obviously, we saw the House pass
Speaker 12: more than fourteen billion dollars of that with the condition
Speaker 12: of funding being stripped from the IRS likely not going
Speaker 12: to go anywhere in the Senate as a hot war
Speaker 12: is going going on, how do you think Republicans in
Speaker 12: the Senate and Republicans in the House are going to
Speaker 12: be able to reconcile this?
Speaker 15: So the Senate Republicans the House Republicans are in very
Speaker 15: different places. House Republicans much more populist. Some might use
Speaker 15: the word isolationists. I wouldn't use that word, but that's
Speaker 15: a shorthand version. Senate Republicans much more internationalists, have a
Speaker 15: little more political flexibility in terms of the party base.
Speaker 15: Senate Republicans are very interested in using this opportunity to
Speaker 15: support Ukraine and its war against Russia. They're interested in
Speaker 15: augmenting US support for Taiwan. They also frankly want to
Speaker 15: see some more stiffness along the border with Mexico. There's
Speaker 15: no doubt House Republicans much more interested in simply supporting Israel.
Speaker 15: And then this interesting IRS tax thing kind of thrown in.
Speaker 15: I guess it's some sort of incentive for some folks
Speaker 15: who might have been reluctant. Notably, twelve Democrats I think
Speaker 15: it was twelve Democrats in the House voted for that package,
Speaker 15: So it's it was a little bit bipartisan. If that's
Speaker 15: what they got to do to kind of keep this
Speaker 15: thing moving. I'm willing to give them some grace on this,
Speaker 15: but there's there is a reckoning coming when that Senate package,
Speaker 15: which is going to be much broader and bigger, comes
Speaker 15: back into the House. And then and then I think
Speaker 15: we're going to see the real news.
Speaker 2: Here got less than a minute here, lester to what
Speaker 2: extent will this foreign policy debate be featured in the
Speaker 2: Republican primary debate next week? Or is it just Nicki
Speaker 2: Haley is going to be beating that drum.
Speaker 15: I think it's I think it's the leading issue. I
Speaker 15: think this is the this is the difference maker. This
Speaker 15: is the opportunity for Haley to show she's different than
Speaker 15: DeSantis and the Vakaramaswami and frankly, for that matter, Donald Trump,
Speaker 15: who has not been articulating a coherent message on any
Speaker 15: of this, really a huge opportunity for Nicki Haley to
Speaker 15: kind of grab the reins and make herself the main
Speaker 15: part of the conversation on the Republican side.
Speaker 2: Yes, she doesn't have Mike Pence to compete with any longer.
Speaker 5: We'll see how that goes. Lester. It's great to see it.
Speaker 5: Thanks as always.
Speaker 2: Lester Monthson frequently part of our political panel on sound On.
Speaker 2: We wanted to tap his foreign policy experience today ahead
Speaker 2: of as we mentioned, what could be an important weekend
Speaker 2: Killee in this whole conflicts in this reel. Thanks for
Speaker 2: listening to the sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe
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