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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Friday edition of Bloomberg sound On. Welcome

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Speaker 2: to Jobs Day. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where there

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Speaker 2: does seem to be a pretty good feel about this.

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Speaker 2: The headline on the terminal says it all fed hiking

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Speaker 2: cycle looks done after US jobs report shows cooling. See

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Speaker 2: Jay Brison, the economist at Wells Fargo, put a fork

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Speaker 2: in it. He says they're done. And I'm not allowed

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Speaker 2: to ask Jared Bernstein that because he's not gonna comment

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Speaker 2: on the FED and I know the rules. Jared, of course,

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Speaker 2: the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors,

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Speaker 2: with us from a sunny North lawn. I do wonder, though, Jared,

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Speaker 2: maybe this is a better way of getting to it.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining as always on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Is this the steady, stainable growth you were aiming for?

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Speaker 3: I would say so. First of all, thanks for having

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Speaker 3: me on. It's always great to talk to you. There

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Speaker 3: are many joes in my life, but you're definitely one

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Speaker 3: of them, and absolutely absolutely, you know, it's interesting that

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Speaker 3: you should use that terminology steady stable growth transition Therein

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Speaker 3: back in I think March of twenty two, President Biden

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Speaker 3: wrote an op ed I think we showed up in

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Speaker 3: the Wall Street Journal where he said there will be

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Speaker 3: some downshifting in terms of job gains, and he said,

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Speaker 3: you know, we should look for numbers like one hundred.

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Speaker 4: And fifty thousand.

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Speaker 3: Now, I don't want to make the commander in chief

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Speaker 3: the forecaster in chief. He's got enough to do, but

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Speaker 3: that was certainly looking around a corner. I think everyone

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Speaker 3: recognizes that in order to align supplying demand in the

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Speaker 3: labor market, we need to see some cooling. We've been

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Speaker 3: seeing that for a while. But the key is to

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Speaker 3: maintain the tight job market, as I think emphasized by

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Speaker 3: an unemployment rate. It's been below four percent for twenty

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Speaker 3: one months in a row. Now, let me ask everyone

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Speaker 3: who's hearing my voice to go to the CEA blog

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Speaker 3: today and read a post we have on the importance

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Speaker 3: of maintaining persistently tight label markets, in this case in

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Speaker 3: closing racial unemployment and employment gaps. We've got some great

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Speaker 3: scatter plots up there. Take a look. It's just one

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Speaker 3: of the benefits of this transition to more steady, stable growth.

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Speaker 5: You know, I have a bookmarked.

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Speaker 2: I'm going there right now while you're talking to us, Jared.

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Speaker 2: The fact is, though, and I find this really interesting.

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Speaker 2: You can give me your take on this. If it

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Speaker 2: were not for the auto workers strike, and I know

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Speaker 2: that that was factored in, Wall Street had factored that

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Speaker 2: into expectations, but that would have been another what thirty

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Speaker 2: five thousand jobs, and we would have been, well, I

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Speaker 2: guess potentially.

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Speaker 5: A little hotter than expected. Are we going to get

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Speaker 5: back to that number next month?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think the right way to look at this

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Speaker 3: is always to smooth out a few months. On a

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Speaker 3: three month rolling average basis, average monthly job gains have

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Speaker 3: been about two hundred thousand. That's actually higher than what

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Speaker 3: economists think of as the break even number. That is

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Speaker 3: the number that you would need to just sort of

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Speaker 3: hold the unemployment rate where it is given labor force participation,

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Speaker 3: that's closer to one hundred, so some you know, being

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Speaker 3: somewhere in the range between one hundred and two hundred

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Speaker 3: feels like a good place to be. We still have

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Speaker 3: though this month the LF participation rate ticked down, including

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Speaker 3: for working aged persons. I think we still have some

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Speaker 3: room to go there, and so job gains at this

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Speaker 3: pace feel right to me. I think they're also the

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Speaker 3: kind of gains that we need to see, especially with

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Speaker 3: easing inflation, to generate real pay gains, which is so

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Speaker 3: important to keeping the consumer side of the economy moving forward.

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Speaker 2: There are questions about the trajectory among black workers, specifically

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Speaker 2: jared participation and level of employment. Are you worried about

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Speaker 2: what's happening there and why are we seeing weakness in

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Speaker 2: African Americans in this job market.

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Speaker 3: Well, one of the things we focused on on the

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Speaker 3: blog post I just mentioned today is the gap between

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Speaker 3: black and white unemployment and black and white employment rates.

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Speaker 3: And we did that for Hispanics as well. And if

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Speaker 3: you sort of line up the unemployment rate against the

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Speaker 3: black white gap, say for unemployment, what you'll see is

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Speaker 3: very steep, a very steep slope, meaning that higher unemployment

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Speaker 3: means a wider gap. Lower unemployment means a lower gap.

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Speaker 3: So let me just throw out a number. This sounds obscure,

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Speaker 3: but stay with me here because I think it's a

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Speaker 3: great number. In response to your question, if you look

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Speaker 3: at the average gap between black workers and white workers

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Speaker 3: and the unemployment rate, it's something like six percentage points.

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Speaker 3: If you then condition that average on unemployment below four percent,

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Speaker 3: it's about two and a half percentage points, so a

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Speaker 3: much smaller gap at low unemployment. Now, look, any month

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Speaker 3: is going to bop one way or the other, but

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Speaker 3: the fact that full employment disproportionately helps workers and communities

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Speaker 3: of color is well established.

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Speaker 2: As you right, the unemployment gap becomes less positive in

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Speaker 2: tight labor markets, and the employment gap becomes less negative.

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Speaker 2: Can you forecaste me around that yard? What does that

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Speaker 2: look like months from now?

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Speaker 3: Well, we're using three month averages to try to filter

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Speaker 3: out some of the BIPs and bops. But you know, basically,

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Speaker 3: I think that conditional mean I just gave you as instructive.

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Speaker 3: If the unemployment rate stays below four percent or in

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Speaker 3: that neighborhood, we should expect that gap to stay historically

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Speaker 3: pretty low. By the way, I will say something about

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Speaker 3: the Federal Reserve today. Today Governor Adriana Kougler was sworn in.

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Speaker 3: We have one of the most diverse fed boards we've

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Speaker 3: ever had. In her acceptance speech, she thanked the President

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Speaker 3: for the nominees that he has sent up, and we

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Speaker 3: are very, very happy to see a federal reserve that

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Speaker 3: has this kind of diversity. I think it really makes

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Speaker 3: a difference. And by the way, that's not just my thinking.

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Speaker 3: There's research that shows that a federal reserve that looks

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Speaker 3: more like America represents more of America.

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Speaker 5: I know that your time is tight, Jared.

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Speaker 2: I've got to ask you about the Psalm rule because

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Speaker 2: I love to walk out with you here. And this

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Speaker 2: is probably not something a lot of people talk about

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Speaker 2: over dinner. But Claudia sam who has her own consulting firm,

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Speaker 2: she says she thinks she's created a monster, Jared. But

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Speaker 2: the rise in unemployment to three point nine percent, Bloomberg says,

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Speaker 2: means joblessness is on the verge of triggering that Psalm rule,

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Speaker 2: which has been a reliable predictor of a recession. Now

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Speaker 2: you've had guys like me asking you when the recession

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Speaker 2: is going to begin for I think two years now, right,

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Speaker 2: And I realize the context of this question, but I

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Speaker 2: wonder your thought on the next six months to a year.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So, first of all, on the measurement, I believe

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Speaker 3: the PSALM is measured in three month moving averages, and

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Speaker 3: if you do that, I think Claudia herself said this

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Speaker 3: morning that you know, it hasn't been triggered yet, but look,

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Speaker 3: it's something we have to watch. Basically, the question you're asking,

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Speaker 3: is the cooling we see in the job market, the

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Speaker 3: kind of cooling that gets us on a transition to

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Speaker 3: what some call a soft landing, which we've talked about

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Speaker 3: as steady, stable growth, or is it something more threatening

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Speaker 3: than that. Nobody knows the answer to that question. What

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Speaker 3: I come back to is that when you have a

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Speaker 3: persistently tight labor market and an economy that's seventy percent

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Speaker 3: consumer spending, we're now generating real wage gains year over year.

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Speaker 3: Real wages have gone up for the past four or

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Speaker 3: five months. That helps to I think, support that virtuous

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Speaker 3: cycle of a tight labor market as a tailwind and

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Speaker 3: the consumers spending, and that's a big part of what's

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Speaker 3: pushing us forward. I think there's momentum there, but it's

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Speaker 3: something we have to watch carefully.

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Speaker 5: Do you ever wake up at night and see two

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Speaker 5: on the ceiling?

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Speaker 2: I know I'm not supposed to ask you about the FED,

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Speaker 2: but this two percent thing is it?

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Speaker 5: Is it antiquated?

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Speaker 3: Well, first of all, let me tell you that I

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Speaker 3: sleep like a baby. I wake up every two hours screaming.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not gonna I'm not going to comment on

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Speaker 3: the I'm not gonna comment on the fed's target. I

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Speaker 3: will say that I have a watch list, and you

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Speaker 3: know it looks at all the headwinds. I mean, one

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Speaker 3: interesting thing I'm getting away from from the FED because

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Speaker 3: I'm not going to comment on the interest rate target.

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Speaker 3: One interesting thing is that one thing that was on

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Speaker 3: our list of headwinds was the UAW strike and we

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Speaker 3: can cross that off. Now. That didn't mean, obviously that

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Speaker 3: we were in any sort of opposition. The President wanted

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Speaker 3: a win, win for both sides, and I think that's

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Speaker 3: where we ended up.

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Speaker 4: In fact, you know, this.

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Speaker 3: White House is always happy to see labor flexing its muscle.

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Speaker 3: But at one level, we have, you know, a headwind

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Speaker 3: there that we could cross off the list.

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Speaker 2: I'll think of you every two hours, Jared. There's no

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Speaker 2: one else in Washington I could have this very conversation with,

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Speaker 2: and I really always do appreciate it.

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Speaker 5: Thanks for the time today.

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Speaker 2: Your life from the White House, Jared Bernstein, the Chair

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Speaker 2: of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. As we

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Speaker 2: assemble our panel, what Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano must

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Speaker 2: think the data this morning really captured a lot of

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Speaker 2: attention here as we try to reset our view going

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Speaker 2: forward the stock market?

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Speaker 5: Scott Its view? What's the political side of this?

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Speaker 2: Our Bloomberg Politics contributors make up our signature panel. Rick

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Speaker 2: and Jeannie, thanks for being here. Happy Friday. Your thoughts,

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Speaker 2: Genie on what you just heard from the Democratic administration

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Speaker 2: that has been waiting to claim victory in the fight

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Speaker 2: against inflation. We're not even near two percent, but a

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Speaker 2: report like this does seem to provide some hope.

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Speaker 6: What do you think it really does?

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Speaker 7: First of all, Joe, you are my favorite Joe, so

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Speaker 7: we just want to get that out there. But in

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Speaker 7: terms of the politics, I think your conversation with Jared

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Speaker 7: just sort of spells it out. He Jared to me

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Speaker 7: seems brighter, happy or and a lot more joyful than

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Speaker 7: we've seen him recently, and I think speaks a lot. Yeah,

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Speaker 7: he's joking, he you know, he's in good spirits as

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Speaker 7: they say, it's either Friday or they got the job

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Speaker 7: numbers they wanted, and I suspect it maybe both, but

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Speaker 7: certainly the latter. And you know, this is a good

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Speaker 7: sign for the White House. It does say and the

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Speaker 7: markets are reflecting this that we are having or you know,

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Speaker 7: and I'm not sure the White House should say this

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Speaker 7: just yet, but it seems signs that the soft landing

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Speaker 7: that they've been waiting for and hoping for maybe here again.

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Speaker 7: From a PR perspective, they can't get ahead of themselves

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Speaker 7: on that, but these are good signs. But the challenge

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Speaker 7: for the White House is they have to be very

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Speaker 7: careful not to take numbers and the feeling of you know,

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Speaker 7: optimism on Wall Street and bring that to Main Street

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Speaker 7: because people on the ground are still feeling the pressure

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Speaker 7: of inflation and mortgage rates are up in all of

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Speaker 7: those things, so they have to be very careful from

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Speaker 7: a PR perspective. But the signs and the numbers that

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Speaker 7: we've seen reflected in your conversation with Jared are good

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Speaker 7: signs for the White House and for the economy as

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Speaker 7: a whole.

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Speaker 2: Rick, I remember John McCain's I believe first interview after

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Speaker 2: the two thousand and eight election. It was the Colbert Rapport.

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Speaker 2: I think remember that show. He said, I sleep like

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Speaker 2: a baby. I wake up every two hours in cry,

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Speaker 2: just like Jared Bernstein just said. I know this is

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Speaker 2: a joke, but should we actually read into that a

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Speaker 2: little bit as the disposition of this administration when it

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Speaker 2: comes to the economy, You.

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Speaker 6: Know, I think yes and no.

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Speaker 8: I think what Genie hints at is, it doesn't really

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Speaker 8: matter politically what the administration is claiming today victory or

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Speaker 8: sort of at least progress in the fight against inflation,

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Speaker 8: if consumers and voters aren't feeling it. And when you

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Speaker 8: read the latest Michigan consumer sentiment, and that's my bible

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Speaker 8: on attitudes that people have about their own fiscal situation,

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Speaker 8: it went down six percent in October, I mean, and

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Speaker 8: it's already well below what an administration would hope to

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Speaker 8: have going into an election year. No party in power

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Speaker 8: ever wins if the Michigan consumer sentiment is not above

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Speaker 8: ninety and today it's below seventy. So there's a lot

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Speaker 8: of work this administration has to do to sort of

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Speaker 8: commence the American public that they're making progress.

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Speaker 2: Reminding us that consumers, things like consumer sentiment. As a

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Speaker 2: data point, gas prices are frequently more reliable of polls

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Speaker 2: than the data we look at from the polling organization's Genie.

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Speaker 2: I'll tell you Bloomberg economy. Economics has been very consistent

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Speaker 2: about the forecast of a recession. The question has really,

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Speaker 2: ever only been about how long and how deep.

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Speaker 5: I mentioned the som rule because I like to.

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Speaker 2: Walk out, like I said with Jared Bernstein, but that's

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Speaker 2: a pretty real thing, Genie, and you do wonder about

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Speaker 2: the timing and what might coincide with presidential election cycle.

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Speaker 7: That's right, and that's a huge concern for the president's

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Speaker 7: campaign team and the president himself if and when this

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Speaker 7: recession does come, and we all hope it doesn't, but

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Speaker 7: the you know, it very possibly could. The timing is

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Speaker 7: going to matter an awful lot. And the reality is,

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Speaker 7: even if the recession wanes before voting in November twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty four, if that's how we've all been living in

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Speaker 7: a recession for so many months and weeks, coming out

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Speaker 7: of it is not going to be helpful. So again,

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Speaker 7: a lot of this depends and I agree with Rick

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Speaker 7: on how people are feeling. You can't talk them out

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Speaker 7: of feeling like their lives have gotten harder, and the administration,

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Speaker 7: the campaign has got to be cognizant of that. You

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Speaker 7: can't convince people that they're feeling something that they're not.

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Speaker 2: The numbers aside, you know, Rick, the Administration's got a

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Speaker 2: pretty good story to tell when it comes to the

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Speaker 2: job market. The statement from the White House today pointing

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Speaker 2: to what are they say, say, fifteen million jobs created

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Speaker 2: or something. You've got an incredible string of positive reports.

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Speaker 2: But the matter of inflation is the sticky part, and

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Speaker 2: we know that fuel prices have been driving a lot

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Speaker 2: of that. Are we going to see a release from

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Speaker 2: the spr close to the election?

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Speaker 8: You know, I think it could look a little political,

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Speaker 8: and obviously depends upon the trajectory of those gas prices

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Speaker 8: between now and then, right. I mean, like we've seen

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Speaker 8: them moving around quite a bit. There's no stability to

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Speaker 8: the undercurrent of oil prices these days. The Saudi's monkeying

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Speaker 8: around with supply, all these international events occurring. Although I

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Speaker 8: would say I've been watching price of oil since the

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Speaker 8: attacks on Israel from Hamas and it's actually been much

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Speaker 8: more stable than I would have thought it was. Going

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Speaker 8: to be in this kind of a tumultuous geopolitical environment.

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Speaker 8: So you know, I know that this is something the

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Speaker 8: White House pays a lot of attention to. I know,

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Speaker 8: drives a lot of sentiment amongst consumers. You know, it

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Speaker 8: also drives a lot of the inflation figures that the

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Speaker 8: FED has to look at. So so sure, I would

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Speaker 8: think this administration is going to try and do everything

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Speaker 8: they can to keep prices low, but there's a limit

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Speaker 8: to what they can really impact in the market.

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Speaker 2: I paid three point thirty five to fill up yesterday

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Speaker 2: in New York. Right now, the average, according to Triple

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Speaker 2: A three dollars seventy two cents. In California five dollars

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Speaker 2: eighteen cents.

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Speaker 5: That's the average.

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Speaker 2: More ahead with our panel, Rick and Jeannie. I'm Joe Matthew.

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Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 4: And the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: The new Speaker of the House finally gets a win

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Speaker 2: on the board. That standalone bill to provide aid to

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Speaker 2: Israel that we've been talking about for days did pass

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Speaker 2: the House yesterday.

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Speaker 5: It happened on this vote.

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Speaker 2: The days are two hundred and twenty six.

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Speaker 5: The days are one ninety six.

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Speaker 4: The bill is.

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Speaker 2: Passed YEP, smattering of applause. Passed with twelve Democrats, including

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Speaker 2: one who talked to us on this program yesterday, and

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Speaker 2: it sure sounded like she was an no.

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Speaker 5: That would be w.

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Speaker 2: Wasserman Schultz, the Democrat from Florida.

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Speaker 5: HACKEM.

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Speaker 2: Jeffries, of course, the Democratic leader in the House, was

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Speaker 2: asked about that today. He held a news conference and

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Speaker 2: talked about the fact that some Democrats did vote yes

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Speaker 2: on that bill, but said that a.

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Speaker 5: Wide majority did not.

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Speaker 2: Let's reassemble the panel for their take on what happened

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Speaker 2: here in what comes next, because we know that that

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Speaker 2: bill is doa in the Senate, we know the President

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Speaker 2: would veto it, So maybe now we can get onto

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Speaker 2: something a little bit more constructive. With Rick Davis and

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Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano. Rick, we touched on this yesterday. It actually

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Speaker 2: did pass, and I don't think that was a sure

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Speaker 2: thing around this time. It took some Democrats to do it.

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Speaker 2: I can only assume that they did not want to

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Speaker 2: have advertisements campaign ads made about them voting against Israel.

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Speaker 5: But what's the path? Now?

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Speaker 2: The Senate delivers a product that will look nothing like

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Speaker 2: the one in the House, and then a standoff or what.

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Speaker 6: Well, it's not a standoff. The Senate will do a package.

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Speaker 8: It'll include, you know, probably some appropriations bills, the Ukraine

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Speaker 8: funding attached to the Israeli funding that the House passed,

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Speaker 8: and maybe the additional funding that they're talking about with

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Speaker 8: the administration supplemental.

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Speaker 6: All that will then go into a conference committee.

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Speaker 8: So they'll take the House bill and what the Senate

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Speaker 8: refers to as it's poison pill on on you know,

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Speaker 8: cutting the irs and and all the stuff that gets

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Speaker 8: chunked into this bill from the Senate, and they'll get

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Speaker 8: confres you know, House members and Senate members, and they'll

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Speaker 8: hash it out and out of this, considering how different

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Speaker 8: that two are, you'll probably see something come out that

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Speaker 8: doesn't look anything like either bill and will be a.

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Speaker 6: Compromise and and and.

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Speaker 8: Likely we'll sail through because it will include you know

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Speaker 8: that Israeli funding, which I think is universally supported in

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Speaker 8: amongst the Senate and the House.

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Speaker 2: Genie listened to Hakim Jeffreys, the Democratic leader, reacting to

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Speaker 2: the bill that was passed yesterday.

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Speaker 9: The overwhelming majority of House Democrats opposed the partisan political

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Speaker 9: stunt that was put on the floor by my Republican

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Speaker 9: colleagues unnecessarily conditioning aid to Israel, which has never been

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Speaker 9: done during Israel's seventy five years of existence and a

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Speaker 9: special relationship that has existed between.

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Speaker 10: Our two countries.

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Speaker 9: It's never been done, and there was no rational reason

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Speaker 9: for it to have occurred.

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Speaker 2: But now that it is done, Jeanie, I wonder if

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Speaker 2: you see the same path that Rick does here, because

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Speaker 2: the Senate's going to move something that includes Israel, Ukraine

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Speaker 2: Taiwan border most likely, at least that's what we're hearing.

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Speaker 2: And it appears that Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell have

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Speaker 2: the votes that will bear no resemblance to what was

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Speaker 2: passed yesterday. Well, I guess maybe one out of four

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Speaker 2: when that goes into conference committee, that could be interesting.

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Speaker 7: What's going to happen, It's going to be very interesting.

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Speaker 7: On the plus side, you know, there is not a

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Speaker 7: lot of daylight between the amount of funding that the

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Speaker 7: Administration and Democrats and Republicans quite frankly, and the House

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Speaker 7: want for Israel. The question was the pay because they're

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Speaker 7: both at about fourteen billion, and of course the breakdown

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Speaker 7: is fairly similar. It was the pay for, of course,

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Speaker 7: and it was also the lack of attachment to Ukraine funding.

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Speaker 7: So those are going to be the things that they're

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Speaker 7: going to have to deal with in conference. There should,

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Speaker 7: in normal circumstances, be a pathway forward on this, because

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Speaker 7: again there is violent agreement in the House and Senate.

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Speaker 7: I'm getting this aid to Israel, you know that said,

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Speaker 7: I think the Democrats who voted for it certainly did

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Speaker 7: not want to vote against a package for Israel. And

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Speaker 7: as the Minority leader said, it's the first time they've seen,

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Speaker 7: or we've seen a conditional package of support for Israel.

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Speaker 7: But you know, I am not critical of that conditional package.

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Speaker 7: We should have pay force. The problem is this pay

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Speaker 7: for is anything, but it's going to cost taxpayers, if

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Speaker 7: you believe the CBO, twenty six billion, so not save

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Speaker 7: us a dime. So let's have a conversation about real

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Speaker 7: pay for it, and that is something that we should

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Speaker 7: see considered by the House and the Senate. Who knows

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Speaker 7: if they will get there, because of course it is

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Speaker 7: not something historically we have done when it comes to

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Speaker 7: aid for Israel for a variety of reasons.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's where you have Hakeem Jeffreys calling it a

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Speaker 2: partisan political stunt. Call it what you will, Rick, I

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Speaker 2: just wonder what it means for the future of Ukraine funding,

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Speaker 2: which appears to be will or will be packaged with

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Speaker 2: border money, at least in a House version. If all

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Speaker 2: these get broken up, can they pass on their own.

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Speaker 2: I'm just trying to figure out if this thing, to

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Speaker 2: your point, looks nothing like either bill when it comes

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Speaker 2: out of the wash, what we're actually going to be

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Speaker 2: left with.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, look, I mean I think legitimately, if each of

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Speaker 8: these bills were carved up and they were all voted

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Speaker 8: on in the House of Representatives, one by one, they

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Speaker 8: would all pass. The limitation on Ukraine is what the

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Speaker 8: Speaker has already said, which is he wants the majority

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Speaker 8: of his caucus to be behind it. Well, that's an

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Speaker 8: extra step, right, If you just put that Ukraine funding

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Speaker 8: on the floor, it would get overwhelming House support because

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Speaker 8: you'd have all the Democrats, almost all the Democrats, and

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Speaker 8: close to if not over half the Republicans. So when

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Speaker 8: you start doing limitations like oh, well, we're going to

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Speaker 8: check with the caucus verse before we put anything down,

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Speaker 8: and then you're talking about a very close vote. So

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Speaker 8: I think that it's not going to come to that.

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Speaker 8: I think you're going to get more of a package

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Speaker 8: deal out of the conference and that'll go straight to

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Speaker 8: the floor because it'll just be ratification of the conference

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Speaker 8: and that's usually an up or down vote. So I

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Speaker 8: would say there are some debates going on in the

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Speaker 8: Senate around this Israeli aid. I mean, one of the

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Speaker 8: things you know in the fourteen billion is a lot

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Speaker 8: of humanitarian aid, and there's some issues as to whether

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Speaker 8: or not we have the controls on that humanitarian aid

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Speaker 8: to ensure that Hamas doesn't run off with it. So

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Speaker 8: it's not done yet because of some of those kinds

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Speaker 8: of limitations, but I think that Senate will act soon.

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Speaker 8: The downside is this conference could last longer than anybody wants.

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Speaker 8: The aid to be delayed a couple of weeks, and

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Speaker 8: so I think that that it'll be interesting to see

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Speaker 8: how quickly they can move.

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Speaker 2: Looking like they will need it by then Hackem. Jeffreys

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Speaker 2: talked about a shutdown as well today. Gene, you remember

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Speaker 2: this laddered laddered CR we talked about yesterday. Nobody's exactly sure,

439
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,400
Speaker 2: exactly sure what it is. It would, I guess mean

440
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 2: different timing on shutdowns for different departments.

441
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:35,919
Speaker 5: He's not buying it here.

442
00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 10: He is this notion of a so called laddered CR like.

443
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 9: The novelty being delicate with my words here, the novelty

444
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:53,720
Speaker 9: of my friends on the other side of the ale

445
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,640
Speaker 9: in terms of how they come up with language that

446
00:23:57,720 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 9: disguise their intentions.

447
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:04,360
Speaker 10: Translation, they want to shut the government.

448
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 5: Down just a minute left, Jeanie.

449
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 2: I don't know if you agree, but that doesn't sound

450
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 2: like somebody who's getting off on the right foot with

451
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 2: the new.

452
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 5: Speaker, does it.

453
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 7: Well, you know, I have to say, Joe, when you

454
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,360
Speaker 7: first yesterday to mention the term ladder CR, I did

455
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 7: something no professor should ever do. I madly googling what

456
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 7: is this thing? Why are they talking about? And all

457
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,679
Speaker 7: I can think is they don't just want one shutdown,

458
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 7: they want multiple shutsdowns, lasting different amounts of times and

459
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 7: in different departments. So if one shutdown isn't enough for you,

460
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 7: they're going to have a multiple, and that'll be your

461
00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,399
Speaker 7: winter and your fall, Joe Matthew, as you seek to

462
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 7: cover this, That's all I can say.

463
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 5: Great.

464
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 2: I did speak with a Republican member this morning, Rick,

465
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 2: who just shook his head when I said, do you

466
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 2: know what a laddered CI said? He shook his head

467
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 2: and he said, that's not happening in our last couple seconds.

468
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 4: Do you agree?

469
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 5: Yeah?

470
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 6: I agree.

471
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 8: I mean this is just conjecture, and everybody's just going

472
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,360
Speaker 8: to be anxious to get this monkey off their back.

473
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 8: The CR expiring on the seventeenth November, so they'll just

474
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 8: attach a new date, probably January fifteenth or something to

475
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 8: it and call it today and keep arguing over appropriations bills.

476
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 8: I mean, what they need to do is do the

477
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,400
Speaker 8: government's work and do these appropriations bills so they don't

478
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 8: have to keep doing crs. But no, ladderd CR was

479
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 8: dead before it arrived.

480
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 5: It's very amazing. Jacob will keep his ladder.

481
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Schanzano will be back with more

482
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,920
Speaker 2: on what's actually happening in Israel.

483
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

484
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

485
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app. We're listening on

486
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

487
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 2: Anthony Blincoln has returned to Tel Aviv, and the Secretary

488
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 2: of State delivered news as soon as he arrived, news

489
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 2: that thirty five Americans were killed in the Hamas terror

490
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 2: attack against Israel. On the seventh of October. The number

491
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 2: had stood at thirty two. It is now at thirty five,

492
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 2: something he learned after meeting with leaders in Israel looking

493
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 2: at images of him sitting down with Benjamin Dettanyahu in

494
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 2: Tel Aviv on the terminal as Blinkin shifts the focus

495
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 2: to protecting civilians on this trip.

496
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 11: Hamas doesn't care one second or one iota for the

497
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 11: welfare for the well being of the Palestinian people. It

498
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 11: cynically and monstrously uses them as human shields, putting its

499
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:45,440
Speaker 11: commanders in command posts, its weapons and ammunition within or

500
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 11: beneath residential buildings, schools, mosques, hospitals. But civilians should not

501
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 11: suffer the consequences for its inhumanity and its brutality. We

502
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,400
Speaker 11: provided Israel advice that only the best of friends can

503
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 11: offer on how to minimize civilian deaths while still achieving

504
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:06,880
Speaker 11: its objectives of finding and finishing Hamas terras and their

505
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 11: infrastructure of violence.

506
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 2: This is not getting easier for Israel.

507
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 5: Quite the contrary.

508
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 2: Blncoln said on the outset of this trip, I was

509
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,200
Speaker 2: getting on the airplane that his purpose was not only

510
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 2: to deliver that message on protecting civilians, but to prevent escalation.

511
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 2: And what we're hearing today from Hesbelah is deeply concerning

512
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,199
Speaker 2: Hezbelah's leader issuing a warning to Israel that the Lebanon

513
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 2: based militant group is ready for quote all possibilities unquote,

514
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 2: suggesting the daily cross border fire between the two could

515
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 2: tip into a full blown war. Let's reassemble our panel

516
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 2: with Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis. I believe it was

517
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 2: Michael Knights yesterday, Rick, who was talking about proxy groups

518
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 2: working for Iran, groups like Hesbelah, like Hamas, that this

519
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 2: could be a very difficult weekend ahead. Is that your concern?

520
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 4: Yeah?

521
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 8: I thought the point he made very knowledgeable about these

522
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 8: you know, proxy groups that that Iran is you know

523
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 8: funding and training. Is that they are maybe the best

524
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 8: thing that ever happened for Iran to be able to

525
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 8: threaten its neighbors in a way that they don't get

526
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 8: to blame, but also the worst night for nightmare for

527
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 8: Iran right now, because Iran does not want a full

528
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:29,200
Speaker 8: scale war. They do not want to be drawn in

529
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,199
Speaker 8: to a conflict. This is not what they hope to

530
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 8: achieve right now. So so I'm sure they were just

531
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 8: as curious about what the leader of Hesbalah was saying

532
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 8: this morning as we were, because if they had declared war,

533
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 8: that would have dragged Iran right into this thing, and

534
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 8: that's obviously not in their global self interest. So I

535
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 8: think this is this is a big chess game of

536
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 8: major powers, and these these proxy groups are both giving

537
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:02,680
Speaker 8: them some options but also creating a lot of pressure

538
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 8: for them, in this case Iran that they don't want

539
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 8: to have. So it didn't surprise me that they didn't

540
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,520
Speaker 8: clare war today. But I don't think we can take

541
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 8: our eye off of that ball.

542
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 2: Wow has well as Secretary General Jeanie describing quote a

543
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 2: new phase of fighting against this enemy unquote. When Secretary

544
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 2: Blinken shows up in Tel Aviv and starts to urge restraint.

545
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,719
Speaker 2: Is that message delivered when we're reading lines like this.

546
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 7: You know, I think he and the President have tried hard,

547
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 7: and I give them a lot of credit to walk

548
00:29:38,400 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 7: this very difficult line of showing full throated support for

549
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 7: Israel in this horrific time and also to urge Israel

550
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 7: to be restrained and to slow this down. But what

551
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 7: we saw from Benjamin and Yahu when he went to

552
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 7: social media last night, I believe it was and then

553
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 7: again in his statements today where he as really seems

554
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 7: to rejected what the President and Anthony Blinkn are urging

555
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 7: Israel to do with this pause, and again it was

556
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 7: a temporary pause for humanitarian reasons. I'm not sure the

557
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:15,080
Speaker 7: message is getting through in the way the administration hopes.

558
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 7: And that's why I think, you know, the administration and

559
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 7: the United States as a whole, regardless of who's in

560
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 7: power in the presidency, are going to have to really

561
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 7: think long and hard about doing something we've never done

562
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 7: in the US, and that is putting some conditions on

563
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 7: this aid for Israel. And I'm not talking about pay

564
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 7: for US. I'm talking about ensuring that Israel promises not

565
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 7: to build new settlements and to work towards a two

566
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 7: states solution. Otherwise they are not going to be able

567
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 7: to see an end to this, and neither will we.

568
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 7: It's not in our interest to do it in this way.

569
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,239
Speaker 7: And this is not about whether Israel has a right

570
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 7: to retaliate. It's how they do it. And there is

571
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 7: no good end the way that it seems to be

572
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:03,520
Speaker 7: pushed forward now, and the administration knows that. Behind the scenes,

573
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 7: they're saying that whether it's getting through is another thing.

574
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 7: And it's understandable again because on September twelfth, twenty eleven,

575
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 7: we would have done exactly what we did, which is

576
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 7: push forward and a rushed away and it's really hard

577
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 7: to stop. It's understandable. But for all of our interests,

578
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 7: they are asking for the right thing, and they may

579
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 7: have to condition it to see it through.

580
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 2: Well, you know, you make a great point, Anthony Blincoln. Today,

581
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 2: Rick says the US is providing Israel, what quote, advice

582
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 2: that only the best of friends can offer unquote, the

583
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:42,479
Speaker 2: United States was not interested in advice following nine to eleven,

584
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 2: is Israel, sure, I.

585
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 8: Mean we after nine to eleven, when we went into Afghanistan.

586
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 6: We did it as a coalition.

587
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 8: We did it with a lot of other countries joining

588
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 8: us to the fight global terror. In this case, Israel

589
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 8: elected to good on their own, although I do believe

590
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 8: that there were a lot of countries like US who

591
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 8: are willing to help and support Israel. So it isn't

592
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 8: a go to loan strategy. And I would say too,

593
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 8: we have to constantly remember that Hamas is calling the

594
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 8: shots in gazip right. The reason you have a refugee

595
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,160
Speaker 8: crisis in Gaza is because of Hamas. They control the

596
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 8: rapa game. They're the ones that don't allow Americans to

597
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 8: get on the list to get out. Every day, every

598
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 8: single day, Americans are trapped in Gaza because of Hamas,

599
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,600
Speaker 8: not because of Israel, not because of what they're doing

600
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 8: in Gaza right now. And so I think that we

601
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 8: have to constantly remind ourselves that this is a problem

602
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 8: created by Hamas being managed now by Hamas, and only

603
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 8: can be solved by Hamas withdrawing and getting out of Gaza.

604
00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 8: And in the case of the Israelis, they've made it

605
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 8: that they have to root them out. You know a

606
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 8: lot of people are talking about, oh, we've got to

607
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 8: get fuel to hospitals.

608
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 5: Hamas is holding that right.

609
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,600
Speaker 2: It's an important thing to consider when we talk about

610
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 2: pausing right, because you can pause the bombing, but you

611
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 2: still may see no movement in the people. Rick Davis

612
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:23,240
Speaker 2: and Genie Shanz No no great analysis on the fastest show

613
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 2: in politics.

614
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the

615
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

616
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.

617
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 4: The Bloomberg Business App.

618
00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

619
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

620
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe

621
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington alongside Kaylee Lines. It's good to see

622
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 2: a job's day, Kaylee. That means it's Friday, and we're

623
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 2: happy with that. And I guess I don't know. Everyone

624
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 2: seems to be happy with this jobs report. It's amazing

625
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 2: what a weaker that expected number will do. And we're

626
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 2: seeing the impact here of the UAW strike. Yep, this

627
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 2: all fallen on Washington a day after House Republicans managed

628
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 2: to pass the bill with aid for Israel and.

629
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 12: No one else, right, And the concern with that bill

630
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 12: in particular is that they required a little something in

631
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:21,440
Speaker 12: order to give that aid to Israel, more than fourteen

632
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,440
Speaker 12: billion dollars, and that was fourteen billion dollars coming out

633
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 12: of the funding for the irs. They wanted a pay for,

634
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:29,360
Speaker 12: which is the problem that a lot of Democrats have

635
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 12: had with it. Why it's probably dead on arrival in

636
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 12: the Senate and if it ever even got to President

637
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 12: Biden's desk, which it will not, as we understand, Joe.

638
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 12: But the whole concern is about the fiscal trajectory Republicans

639
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 12: wanting to exercise that fiscal discipline, and that does in

640
00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 12: some ways feedback to the other economic conversations we're considering here.

641
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 2: There were some Democrats voted for it, Yeah, twelve, I

642
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:56,239
Speaker 2: think yes, although, as Hakeim Jeffrey said earlier, the Democratic

643
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 2: leader in the House, that was the exception.

644
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 9: He overwhelming majority of House Democrats opposed the partisan political

645
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 9: stunt that was put on the floor by my Republican

646
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:16,799
Speaker 9: colleagues unnecessarily conditioning aid to Israel, which has never been

647
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:22,880
Speaker 9: done during Israel's seventy five years of existence, and a

648
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,759
Speaker 9: special relationship that has existed between our two countries. It's

649
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 9: never been done and there was no rational reason for

650
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:32,799
Speaker 9: it to have occurred.

651
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 5: Why don't we go to the Capitol see what the

652
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 5: congressman thinks about this.

653
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 2: Congressman, I'mibarrat, Democrat from California's sixth districts, joining us from

654
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 2: the Canon House Office Rotunda. It's great to see you, Congressman.

655
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 2: Welcome back to Bloomberg. Is that why you didn't like

656
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:52,239
Speaker 2: this bill?

657
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 13: Well, thanks for having me on. I'd associate myself with

658
00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 13: Leader Jeffries comments, and you know, let's not play politics here.

659
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,240
Speaker 13: We've got a crisis in the Middle East. Bipartisan support

660
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 13: for Israel's incredibly important when you need to get this

661
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:10,239
Speaker 13: funding to them as quickly as possible, and it should

662
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 13: have been a clean funding bill. I also would say,

663
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,360
Speaker 13: you know, the conflict in Ukraine with the illegal Russian

664
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 13: invasion is infinitely tied with what we're seeing in Israel

665
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 13: in terms of supply chains, munitions, defense production line.

666
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 14: So I would pass both of those together.

667
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 4: Along with border security.

668
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 13: I mean, we do have a problem with the southern

669
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 13: border and we should provide funding for that.

670
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 12: Well, the issue Congressman is the Speaker has said that

671
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 12: he would like to have Israel separately. He would not

672
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:43,160
Speaker 12: like to put something on the floor that ties Israel

673
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 12: and Ukraine funding together, and it's pretty clear that he

674
00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 12: wants a pay for So I understand that a lot

675
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 12: of your colleagues had issue with specifically that pay for

676
00:36:51,440 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 12: being money taken from the funding of the IRS. But

677
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 12: is there one you could agree to given what you

678
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,960
Speaker 12: just said about expediency being necessary here?

679
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 4: You know, I think there's a lot that we could do.

680
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:05,760
Speaker 4: And the broader issue is that debt.

681
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:09,240
Speaker 13: And the deficit, and that's going to be a bigger challenge.

682
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 4: I am a co sponsor of.

683
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 13: A bipartisan bill to create a debt Commission, something similar

684
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 13: to the Simpson Bowls Commission. It's going to take an

685
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 13: external group of experts along with members of Congress to

686
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 13: really look at some hard choices, whether that's raising taxes,

687
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 13: whether that's strengthening Social Security and Medicare through changes. But

688
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 13: it is going to take something like that, and I

689
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:37,359
Speaker 13: think that's the broader conversation that we should be thinking

690
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 13: about the problem with the IRS. Pay for is even

691
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 13: according to the CBO, it doesn't actually lower the deficit.

692
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 13: It actually adds to the deficit because you're taking enforcement away.

693
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 2: How do you make that different than Simpson bulls though, Congressman,

694
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 2: how do you make that stick in a Washington where

695
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 2: there's less bipartisan action. It seems that ever, we can't

696
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 2: even figure out how to keep the government open half

697
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 2: the time. The chaos that we've seen in the House

698
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,320
Speaker 2: over the last couple of weeks would make one wonder

699
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 2: how that works, unless I guess you'll lock everybody in

700
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 2: a panic room until they figure it out.

701
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 4: Well, I think you have.

702
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:21,919
Speaker 13: To pair with outside experts, keep it nonpartisan, have them

703
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 13: work together to really get us to start addressing the

704
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 13: debt and the deficit, because that is going to be

705
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 13: a burden on our children over time. And then you

706
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 13: force whatever comes out of that committee to the floor

707
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,319
Speaker 13: for up or down vote, because if it comes to

708
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 13: the floor and everyone starts playing around with it, I

709
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:41,360
Speaker 13: don't think we'll ever get to where we need to

710
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 13: go again. The issue at hand though, right now is

711
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:50,879
Speaker 13: our friends, our allies in Israel and Ukraine need help immediately,

712
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 13: so we should get that funding to them as quickly

713
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:53,760
Speaker 13: as possible.

714
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 12: Well, Congressmen, you call Israel a friend, and that's very

715
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 12: similar to the language that Secretary of St. Anthony Blincoln

716
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 12: was using when he visited was there earlier today, talking

717
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 12: about how the US does stand behind Israel and its

718
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 12: right to defend himself, also pushing though for humanitarian pauses

719
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 12: in the fighting. Do you think there is a risk

720
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 12: of a sentiment turn here when it comes to Israel

721
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 12: given the sheer magnitude of the civilian humanitarian casualties we

722
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 12: are seeing in Gaza.

723
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 13: You know, I really do worry about what we're seeing

724
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 13: in Gaza in terms of just to share loss of

725
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 13: life of innocent civilians.

726
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 4: Israel does have.

727
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 13: A right to exist, Israel has a right to defend itself,

728
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 13: but you also worry about the Palestinians individuals right to

729
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 13: live with peace and dignity.

730
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 4: And I just worry that, you know, getting.

731
00:39:45,960 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 13: To a place where Israelis and Palestinians will ever be

732
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 13: able to live.

733
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 4: Side by side peacefully.

734
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 14: He's getting further and further away.

735
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:54,320
Speaker 4: Now.

736
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 13: You know, it's not going to be an easy execution

737
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:01,240
Speaker 13: of getting to eliminate.

738
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 4: Hamas, but you know there are different ways to do that.

739
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 2: We should note to our viewers and listeners the congressman

740
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:11,760
Speaker 2: serves on both Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees in the House.

741
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 2: But that you should also know as well, a congressmen,

742
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: that you spent a lot of time helping to settle

743
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,760
Speaker 2: Afghan refugees, and I know you made it a priority

744
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:23,719
Speaker 2: in your district in California. How worried are you right

745
00:40:23,760 --> 00:40:28,200
Speaker 2: now about the the unwelcoming nature that we're seeing from

746
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 2: Israel's neighbors when it comes to Palestinian refugees.

747
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 5: Where will they go?

748
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 14: You know, I think it's really unfortunate.

749
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 13: You know, I think we would love to continue to

750
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 13: put pressure on Egypt to accept and allow Palestinian civilians

751
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 13: in a sense and refugees.

752
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 4: To leave the battle zone.

753
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 13: We would also like to see the other Arab states

754
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 13: step up and help here. We're not seeing that right now,

755
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:57,320
Speaker 13: and I think that's unfortunate.

756
00:40:58,200 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 5: Should the US play a role in that?

757
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 13: Certainly the US will continue to allow Palestinian refugees and

758
00:41:05,719 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 13: others seeking shelter and refuge to come to the United States.

759
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 13: But in the immediate concern, where there's an ongoing battle,

760
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 13: you do want to get civilians, women, children, the elderly

761
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 13: out of harm's way, and that really is the Rafa crossing.

762
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 12: In Egypt, Congris when you speak of the other Arab states,

763
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:28,479
Speaker 12: And of course, the other thing that Secretary of State

764
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:31,240
Speaker 12: Lincoln was talking about in Israel today is his desire

765
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 12: to not see this conflict expand beyond Israel and Hamas.

766
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:37,280
Speaker 12: But we already know that there's been a decent amount

767
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 12: of activity on the border with Lebanon. The Secretary General

768
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:43,399
Speaker 12: of Hesbelah was suggesting that another front potentially could open,

769
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,000
Speaker 12: or at least it is a possibility. What is your

770
00:41:46,040 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 12: degree of concern the concern of the House Foreign Affairs

771
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 12: Committee that we are going to see this conflict expand

772
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:52,280
Speaker 12: more regionally.

773
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,800
Speaker 13: You know, I think President Biden's been decisive in moving

774
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 13: assets to the region. Our mission as the United States

775
00:42:00,560 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 13: is clear that we will do everything we can to

776
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 13: prevent a second front opening. You know, I was in

777
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 13: Israel this past summer on the northern border with Lebanon.

778
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 13: You saw some of the tunnels that Hesbela has been doing.

779
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 13: They've been preparing for things for a long time. The

780
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 13: message to Hesbelahs don't do anything right now. The message

781
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,320
Speaker 13: or Nana is stay out of this and proxy Iranian

782
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 13: proxy groups in Syria, et cetera. You've already seen the

783
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 13: United States have to take action against ucci rebels that

784
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 13: have tried to fly drones and attack Israel.

785
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 4: So I think we will continue to do what we

786
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 4: have to do to.

787
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 13: Prevent a second front from opening, and you know, to

788
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 13: try to find a different path forward here.

789
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 2: Well, i'll tell you the language that we're hearing from

790
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 2: Hesbelah is downright scary. Congressman Hesbela's leader issuing a warning

791
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 2: to Israel, saying that they are now ready for all possibilities,

792
00:42:54,920 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 2: suggesting that this daily cross border fire could actually spiral

793
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 2: into a full blown war in what we've been calling

794
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:08,280
Speaker 2: a second or I guess third front in this case.

795
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 5: How real is that threat?

796
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:12,279
Speaker 4: You know?

797
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,240
Speaker 14: I think I think we take it very seriously.

798
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 13: I think we take some of the attacks in Syria

799
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 13: on US assets and elsewhere very seriously. You know, I

800
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 13: think this is also a time where a potential pause

801
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:30,399
Speaker 13: and some of the actions that the Israelis are taking

802
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 13: allow humanitarian aid to get into civilians, food, water, medicines,

803
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 13: and then perhaps find a different path forward. None of

804
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:42,280
Speaker 13: us is suggesting Israel doesn't have a right to defend itself.

805
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 13: None of US is suggesting that Israel doesn't have a

806
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:48,319
Speaker 13: right to protect its home civilians.

807
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 14: But perhaps there's a different way to path.

808
00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 12: Forward as we look at pass forward. Congressman, I want

809
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 12: to return to something you brought up at the beginning

810
00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 12: of this conversation, the idea that Israel is not the

811
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,759
Speaker 12: only US ally that is engaged in a war right now.

812
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 12: It is also Ukraine, which we know is a much

813
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:07,799
Speaker 12: more contentious issue in terms of funding in the House

814
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 12: of Representatives. There's been a lot of talk of the

815
00:44:09,920 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 12: Senate getting ready to send a bill to your chamber

816
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,360
Speaker 12: that would tie a lot of these things together, border security, Ukraine,

817
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,320
Speaker 12: and Israel, as mentioned. Do you worry if it arrives

818
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 12: in that form in the House that it makes it

819
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 12: less likely that any aid any of that will get

820
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 12: past because of the Ukraine issue particular in particular, how

821
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 12: should that be worked around?

822
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 13: You know, again, I think the broad majority of members

823
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:37,000
Speaker 13: of the House of Representatives support both funding for Ukraine

824
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 13: and Israel as well as support funding for the border.

825
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:44,160
Speaker 13: I understand, and we saw it play out in the

826
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 13: Republican majority that there are a fair number of Republicans.

827
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 13: I think it's still the minority of the Republican Party

828
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 13: that do not want to fund Ukraine, and we saw

829
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,880
Speaker 13: a few Republicans vote against funding Israel as well.

830
00:44:58,040 --> 00:44:59,880
Speaker 14: I would hope we could pass it all together.

831
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 13: If we have to take each bill up individually, Let's

832
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 13: take clean bills that don't have any writers on there,

833
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 13: and then you know, if it is about the debt

834
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 13: and the depth is that, we can come back and

835
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 13: revisit that. But we should ought to look at everything

836
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 13: in total. But let's get that funding to Ukraine and Israel.

837
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 2: We're spending time with Congressman Amiberra, Democrat from California.

838
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:22,799
Speaker 5: You're a leader in the House.

839
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:26,879
Speaker 2: Hakim Jeffreys held a briefing earlier today Congressman and said

840
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:30,840
Speaker 2: that the Republican conference in the House wants a shutdown.

841
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:36,360
Speaker 2: Otherwise this bizarre laddered continuing resolution that we've been talking

842
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 2: about the last twenty four hours offered by the Speaker

843
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 2: probably wouldn't have been suggested. He says, that's the evidence.

844
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 2: With that said, we've heard repeatedly that Ukraine funding and

845
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 2: some of these other items could actually be attached to

846
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 2: a continuing resolution. Is that the last train out of

847
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 2: the station. Do you think the government got shut down

848
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 2: or is that a potential solution.

849
00:45:58,880 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 4: I sure hope not.

850
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 13: I mean, look at everything that's taking place in the world.

851
00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 13: We've got real challenges. A shutdown would also do damage

852
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 13: to our own economy at a time where ours is

853
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:11,400
Speaker 13: the best economy in the.

854
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 4: World right now.

855
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:17,440
Speaker 13: I don't understand this laddered continuing resolution proposal that the

856
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:18,439
Speaker 13: Speaker's put forward.

857
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 4: We've never done anything like that.

858
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 2: I would we haven't found anyone who understands what that

859
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 2: is yet exactly.

860
00:46:24,880 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 13: I would urge a Speaker to stick to what he

861
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 13: promised when he ran.

862
00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 14: Let's do a continuing resolution.

863
00:46:31,320 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 13: I think you would find broad support to do a

864
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:38,000
Speaker 13: clean cr that would go to January, perhaps to April,

865
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 13: and then let's find some breathing room. Let's negotiate a

866
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 13: real budget, real appropriation bills, and that's where we can

867
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 13: have some of this compromise debate, et cetera.

868
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 4: And then let's vote on those bills.

869
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 12: Congressman, just to pivot from the conversations of funding, although

870
00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 12: obviously they are very much live, I'd like to return

871
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 12: to something else that happened earlier this week in the

872
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 12: House of Representatives, when an expulsion resolution for Congressman George

873
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 12: Santos was put on the floor obviously did not succeed.

874
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 12: You voted president at that vote. Is that correct?

875
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 4: That is correct?

876
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:16,399
Speaker 12: And why not vote to get him out of there?

877
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:21,240
Speaker 13: You know, so I do believe in the premise innocent

878
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 13: until proven guilty. I voted presents because I do think

879
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 13: there's a preponderance of evidence that suggests that he was guilty,

880
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:31,160
Speaker 13: and he has brought shame to the Chamber and shame

881
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 13: to the Capitol that said, the Ethics Committee is doing

882
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 13: their investigation, they haven't provided their findings. He does deserve

883
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:42,319
Speaker 13: his day in court, and you know, I didn't want

884
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,919
Speaker 13: to generate him, but I also think he's innocent until

885
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:45,720
Speaker 13: proven guilty.

886
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 4: So I voted present.

887
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 2: In our last moment, Congressman, I've got to ask you

888
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 2: about the fox. A lot of people associate you for

889
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:57,839
Speaker 2: better or worse, God knows, he's a medical doctor. Associate

890
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:00,520
Speaker 2: you with being bit by a rabid fox last year

891
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 2: on Capitol Hill. There are reports that there's another one

892
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:07,440
Speaker 2: back up there. Are you looking over your shoulder when.

893
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 4: You walk around?

894
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,399
Speaker 13: I certainly will, and you can only imagine how many

895
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 13: pictures of that fox got texted to me last night.

896
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 13: So everyone be on the lookout, and yeah, don't try

897
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:21,040
Speaker 13: to go interact with that fox.

898
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:24,479
Speaker 2: Is that like the worst ever? The raby shot? That's

899
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 2: that's supposed to be the most painful, right.

900
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 13: But they're not a lot of funs so, and it's

901
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 13: a lot of shots. So yeah, let's keep everyone s.

902
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:38,279
Speaker 2: Patrick McHenry was bit by a rabid squirrel and told

903
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:39,719
Speaker 2: us that it's not true. They don't do it on

904
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:42,320
Speaker 2: the stomach anymore. The shot goes in the wound. Doctor,

905
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:42,879
Speaker 2: Is that right?

906
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 13: That that's correct? They do, I mean fabul shots around

907
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:49,360
Speaker 13: the wound. But then you've got to take your ravy shots.

908
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 13: I mean it's four additional shots.

909
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 10: Wow.

910
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 2: Wow, all right, we'll be looking out for you. Congressman,

911
00:48:56,600 --> 00:49:00,920
Speaker 2: please be careful, doctor Ami Bera with this Democrat from California,

912
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 2: Kaylee that I think that would send me right out of.

913
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:05,320
Speaker 12: Washington carrying like Fox.

914
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 5: You're up there more than I am.

915
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, Kerry may So you're getting the Fox is guilty.

916
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:11,560
Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg.

917
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:16,560
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

918
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

919
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:23,360
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the business app or listen on demand

920
00:49:23,400 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcast.

921
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 2: The Secretary of State in Tel Aviv ahead of what

922
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 2: could be a difficult weekend in Gaza, and I guess Kaylee,

923
00:49:35,160 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 2: for that matter, in Israel, the Iron Dome is not

924
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 2: one hundred percent successful, and they're still and during rocket

925
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 2: attacks as we see bombings continue in Gaza. Questions about

926
00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:49,239
Speaker 2: the pause, you asked Ami Bearra about this, Uh, you know,

927
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 2: Rick Davis made an interesting point that Hamas is the

928
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:54,440
Speaker 2: biggest reason why people are.

929
00:49:54,280 --> 00:49:55,280
Speaker 5: Not getting out of Gaza.

930
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 2: So even if there is a pause, that doesn't guarantee

931
00:49:57,480 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 2: that there will be a flow of people.

932
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 12: I guess that's true, or that aid can necessarily get in. Conversely, right,

933
00:50:03,280 --> 00:50:05,919
Speaker 12: nothing as guaranteed in this kind of conflict when you're

934
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 12: of course dealing with an organization that has been designated

935
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:12,160
Speaker 12: as a terrorist organization by the US and Europe. But

936
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:15,719
Speaker 12: it also raises the question of are these calls for

937
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 12: a pause just going to grow more and more intense

938
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:22,680
Speaker 12: if we get another really hard to watch and read

939
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 12: about weekend, and of course even more so to experience

940
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:29,360
Speaker 12: if you find yourself in Israel Orgaza right now. But

941
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 12: there are growing calls even from now Senate Democrats others

942
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 12: for greater humanitarian consideration.

943
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:37,840
Speaker 2: Well, you wonder as well if those calls could be

944
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 2: drowned out by something worse to the north. It's very

945
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 2: hard to tell what has Bela has planned. Yeah, but

946
00:50:44,680 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 2: some very threatening talk today. As Anthony Blinken addresses Israel's

947
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 2: right to defend himself, this is the Secretary of State.

948
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:52,720
Speaker 5: Earlier today in Tel.

949
00:50:52,560 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 11: Aviv, days after Hamas's attack on a Cober seventh, I

950
00:50:57,239 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 11: came to Israel, followed soon thereafter by President to make

951
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 11: clear that as long as the United States stands, Israel

952
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:11,479
Speaker 11: will never stand alone. Today, in my fourth visit Israel

953
00:51:11,520 --> 00:51:15,480
Speaker 11: since October seventh, I reiterated that in all my discussions

954
00:51:15,880 --> 00:51:21,400
Speaker 11: with Prime Mister Yahu, President Herzog, the Security Cabinet, I

955
00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 11: reiterated and made clear our support for Israel's right to

956
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 11: defend itself, indeed its obligation to defend itself.

957
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,799
Speaker 2: That always comes with a canveat, though, ye when it's

958
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 2: followed by the urge for restraint. Lester Munson joins, he's

959
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:43,360
Speaker 2: been great on this, and we wonder what he's got

960
00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:46,160
Speaker 2: in mind ahead of this weekend. Co Head of the

961
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 2: international practice at BGR Government Relations.

962
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:50,080
Speaker 5: Spent a lot of time in the Senate.

963
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 2: In fact, he was staff director of the Senate Foreign

964
00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 2: Relations Committee and has a unique view here of geopolitics. Lester,

965
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:59,320
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Thanks for coming on this Friday.

966
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 2: This is a heck of a balancing act here in

967
00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 2: the US is trying to conduct it from overseas. When

968
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 2: you hear threatening language today like we did from Hesbola,

969
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 2: talking about all possibilities a new phase of fighting against

970
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 2: the enemy, you wonder if that message that Anthony Blincoln

971
00:52:17,160 --> 00:52:18,760
Speaker 2: is trying to deliver is being received.

972
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 15: Yeah, he's he's got a really tough job. I think

973
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:27,880
Speaker 15: this is his third trip to the region since the

974
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:33,920
Speaker 15: terrorist attack in Israel on October seventh. He's trying to

975
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:35,160
Speaker 15: do several things at once.

976
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:36,279
Speaker 1: One is.

977
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 15: Solidify the bilateral relationship with Israel. The Biden administration had

978
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 15: some turmoil on that before the attack.

979
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:46,399
Speaker 10: He's trying to.

980
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:52,839
Speaker 15: Arrange for some sort of humanitarian relief for those in

981
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:56,799
Speaker 15: Gaza who are innocent and who may be victims here

982
00:52:57,120 --> 00:52:59,520
Speaker 15: of the war that is going on. But he's also

983
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 15: there to talk about what the future governance situation in

984
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 15: Gaza will be. And so these the conversations he's having,

985
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:15,320
Speaker 15: some of them are for public digestion and for display

986
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:18,839
Speaker 15: to Biden voters, to people in the region. Other things

987
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:24,120
Speaker 15: are behind the scenes, very clear eyed, hopefully conversations with

988
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 15: friends and allies and perhaps even some frenemies in the

989
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 15: region to set up the architecture of what is to

990
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:37,720
Speaker 15: come once the Israeli counter strike in Gaza is over.

991
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 15: So there's there's a high degree of difficulty here for

992
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:46,440
Speaker 15: Secretary Blincoln and the administration. Frankly, they've been doing okay

993
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 15: so far. I might have some criticism of some of

994
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 15: the things that are doing on the domestic front, but

995
00:53:51,680 --> 00:53:56,319
Speaker 15: there's political reasons for that. And I think, you know,

996
00:53:56,480 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 15: just as someone as an American, you wish the best

997
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 15: for the administration and the president and his team. And

998
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:07,959
Speaker 15: so I'm hopeful that this trip goes well well.

999
00:54:08,040 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 12: And Lester, considering that, as joej just mentioned, as has

1000
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:14,520
Speaker 12: been reiterated time and again, the US has essentially expressed

1001
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 12: uncond unconditional support for Israel, and unconditional by definition means

1002
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:22,200
Speaker 12: you don't attach any conditions to that. So if there

1003
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:24,800
Speaker 12: is something like an urge from the US for Israel

1004
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:28,879
Speaker 12: to provide these humanitarian pauses in strikes. Is there any real,

1005
00:54:29,160 --> 00:54:33,839
Speaker 12: real leverage here to make Israel do that realistically, or

1006
00:54:34,280 --> 00:54:36,359
Speaker 12: is whatever Israel wants to do, what Israel is going

1007
00:54:36,400 --> 00:54:38,320
Speaker 12: to do in the US isn't actually in a position

1008
00:54:38,400 --> 00:54:41,200
Speaker 12: to do that much about it.

1009
00:54:41,200 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 6: It's a great question.

1010
00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:46,680
Speaker 15: I think the reality here is being met in Yahoo's

1011
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:50,920
Speaker 15: in a tough spot, and he is my sense is

1012
00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:54,319
Speaker 15: he and his administrator, he and his war cabinet. Of course,

1013
00:54:54,320 --> 00:54:57,239
Speaker 15: he's not the sole decision maker anymore because they've got

1014
00:54:57,239 --> 00:55:01,839
Speaker 15: a coalition arrangement in Israel making these decisions. But that

1015
00:55:01,920 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 15: government is working in lockstep with the Biden administration. So

1016
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:11,640
Speaker 15: while the conversation about pauses and ceasefires and that kind

1017
00:55:11,680 --> 00:55:16,240
Speaker 15: of thing is perhaps for public consumption, behind the scenes

1018
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:19,880
Speaker 15: there is a different I think there's a different conversation happening.

1019
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:23,880
Speaker 15: This is what statesmen and women have to do to

1020
00:55:23,920 --> 00:55:26,600
Speaker 15: get the job done. And I think the net and

1021
00:55:26,680 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 15: Yahoo and his allies new allies in the government are

1022
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:33,520
Speaker 15: actually working pretty well in concert with the Biden administration.

1023
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:36,640
Speaker 15: It's quite complex. It is not the same thing that

1024
00:55:36,680 --> 00:55:38,240
Speaker 15: we are seeing for public display.

1025
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:42,319
Speaker 2: Secretary of Blincoln today not only speaking to the need

1026
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:45,239
Speaker 2: to protect civilians, but said part of his trip was

1027
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:49,879
Speaker 2: an attempt to keep this from escalating. Is that possible, Lester,

1028
00:55:50,040 --> 00:55:52,080
Speaker 2: what's your realistic view.

1029
00:55:53,600 --> 00:55:56,759
Speaker 15: I think it is possible. That's the reason this diplomatic

1030
00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:00,759
Speaker 15: channel through Cutter is still active. It's why the administration

1031
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:04,840
Speaker 15: is not shutting down things that it may be in

1032
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 15: a more perfect world wouldn't have to do. There are

1033
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:13,399
Speaker 15: ongoing conversations with all kinds of different different factions of

1034
00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:16,759
Speaker 15: this situation in the Middle East. No one wants this

1035
00:56:16,960 --> 00:56:21,880
Speaker 15: to metastasize into something bigger, except maybe in Tehran. Tehran

1036
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:26,720
Speaker 15: is goading its clients in Yemen, in Lebanon to do more.

1037
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:31,040
Speaker 15: The rest of the region, I promise, is working behind

1038
00:56:31,120 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 15: the scenes to mitigate that instinct from Tehran. They can't

1039
00:56:35,680 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 15: say that in public necessarily, but that's what's going on.

1040
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:42,040
Speaker 12: Okay, So, Lester, there's what's going on in the Middle East,

1041
00:56:42,080 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 12: and then there's what's going on here at home in

1042
00:56:44,840 --> 00:56:47,719
Speaker 12: the conversation around what's going on in the Middle East.

1043
00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 12: Providing funding for Israel, obviously, we saw the House pass

1044
00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:53,720
Speaker 12: more than fourteen billion dollars of that with the condition

1045
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:56,439
Speaker 12: of funding being stripped from the IRS likely not going

1046
00:56:56,480 --> 00:56:59,439
Speaker 12: to go anywhere in the Senate as a hot war

1047
00:56:59,680 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 12: is going going on, how do you think Republicans in

1048
00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 12: the Senate and Republicans in the House are going to

1049
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:05,080
Speaker 12: be able to reconcile this?

1050
00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:09,960
Speaker 15: So the Senate Republicans the House Republicans are in very

1051
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:14,279
Speaker 15: different places. House Republicans much more populist. Some might use

1052
00:57:14,320 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 15: the word isolationists. I wouldn't use that word, but that's

1053
00:57:17,080 --> 00:57:22,040
Speaker 15: a shorthand version. Senate Republicans much more internationalists, have a

1054
00:57:22,080 --> 00:57:25,040
Speaker 15: little more political flexibility in terms of the party base.

1055
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:29,800
Speaker 15: Senate Republicans are very interested in using this opportunity to

1056
00:57:29,840 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 15: support Ukraine and its war against Russia. They're interested in

1057
00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:37,480
Speaker 15: augmenting US support for Taiwan. They also frankly want to

1058
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:42,200
Speaker 15: see some more stiffness along the border with Mexico. There's

1059
00:57:42,200 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 15: no doubt House Republicans much more interested in simply supporting Israel.

1060
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 15: And then this interesting IRS tax thing kind of thrown in.

1061
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 15: I guess it's some sort of incentive for some folks

1062
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 15: who might have been reluctant. Notably, twelve Democrats I think

1063
00:57:58,480 --> 00:58:01,560
Speaker 15: it was twelve Democrats in the House voted for that package,

1064
00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:04,520
Speaker 15: So it's it was a little bit bipartisan. If that's

1065
00:58:04,560 --> 00:58:05,920
Speaker 15: what they got to do to kind of keep this

1066
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 15: thing moving. I'm willing to give them some grace on this,

1067
00:58:09,240 --> 00:58:13,600
Speaker 15: but there's there is a reckoning coming when that Senate package,

1068
00:58:13,760 --> 00:58:16,480
Speaker 15: which is going to be much broader and bigger, comes

1069
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:18,240
Speaker 15: back into the House. And then and then I think

1070
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 15: we're going to see the real news.

1071
00:58:20,400 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 2: Here got less than a minute here, lester to what

1072
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:26,920
Speaker 2: extent will this foreign policy debate be featured in the

1073
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:30,240
Speaker 2: Republican primary debate next week? Or is it just Nicki

1074
00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 2: Haley is going to be beating that drum.

1075
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 15: I think it's I think it's the leading issue. I

1076
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:37,160
Speaker 15: think this is the this is the difference maker. This

1077
00:58:37,240 --> 00:58:40,840
Speaker 15: is the opportunity for Haley to show she's different than

1078
00:58:41,240 --> 00:58:45,960
Speaker 15: DeSantis and the Vakaramaswami and frankly, for that matter, Donald Trump,

1079
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:49,600
Speaker 15: who has not been articulating a coherent message on any

1080
00:58:49,640 --> 00:58:52,520
Speaker 15: of this, really a huge opportunity for Nicki Haley to

1081
00:58:52,600 --> 00:58:55,320
Speaker 15: kind of grab the reins and make herself the main

1082
00:58:55,400 --> 00:58:57,400
Speaker 15: part of the conversation on the Republican side.

1083
00:58:58,120 --> 00:59:00,560
Speaker 2: Yes, she doesn't have Mike Pence to compete with any longer.

1084
00:59:00,680 --> 00:59:02,920
Speaker 5: We'll see how that goes. Lester. It's great to see it.

1085
00:59:03,000 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 5: Thanks as always.

1086
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:06,840
Speaker 2: Lester Monthson frequently part of our political panel on sound On.

1087
00:59:06,920 --> 00:59:10,000
Speaker 2: We wanted to tap his foreign policy experience today ahead

1088
00:59:10,000 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 2: of as we mentioned, what could be an important weekend

1089
00:59:12,800 --> 00:59:17,800
Speaker 2: Killee in this whole conflicts in this reel. Thanks for

1090
00:59:17,840 --> 00:59:20,360
Speaker 2: listening to the sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe

1091
00:59:20,360 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 2: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else

1092
00:59:23,240 --> 00:59:25,720
Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live

1093
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:29,080
Speaker 2: every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time

1094
00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:32,640
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com