Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm term Keene jay Leie.
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Speaker 1: the Persian Gulf into the Straight of Homer's into the
Speaker 1: Gulf of a Man, and it's in the Gulf of
Speaker 1: a Man going into the Straight of Homer's that we've
Speaker 1: heard from two tankers who were reportedly damaged in a
Speaker 1: suspected attack just in the Gulf of a Man, just
Speaker 1: weeks after a previous incident in the region. One of
Speaker 1: the owners, So we've got a Japanese owner of one
Speaker 1: of these vessels telling local media it had been hit
Speaker 1: by a shell. The second tanker, this tanker is owned
Speaker 1: by Norway's Frontline, suffered three detonations. This is according to
Speaker 1: the Norway Maritime Authority. Both ships have been evacuated. Crude
Speaker 1: yesterday had a really sessions. We bounced aggressively off a
Speaker 1: five month low this morning, up around about three percentage
Speaker 1: points on both Brent and w C. I to get
Speaker 1: some more insight and clarity as to what is happening
Speaker 1: in the region. I want to bring in from Dubai.
Speaker 1: Anthony Di Paola Bloomberg Middle East Energy Markets Reporter, Anthony,
Speaker 1: Good morning to you, sir. Just walk us through what
Speaker 1: we know so far and what we're learning is the
Speaker 1: as progress. Good morning to you there. Well, what we're
Speaker 1: really looking to learn still is what the exact cause
Speaker 1: of these attacks was. We we don't know. In the
Speaker 1: case of either ships. There were explosions, there were fires
Speaker 1: on both ships, but you don't know what caused those,
Speaker 1: and then we will be looking for some responsibility. UM.
Speaker 1: The attacks that you mentioned that took place in the
Speaker 1: Portafu Gerra just last month. UM, people there, the US,
Speaker 1: the saluities pointed the figure at the finger at Iran.
Speaker 1: The UA itself hasn't yet a signed to blame. They
Speaker 1: said it was a state actor involved, so we'll be
Speaker 1: looking to see where the blame is pointed here. We
Speaker 1: do know that the cruise have been taken off those vessels. UM.
Speaker 1: There are, as you've mentioned, rescue and and and retrieval
Speaker 1: operations going on there to try to secure these vessels
Speaker 1: and and and luckily that the cruiser are safe. But
Speaker 1: we will be seeing a lot of additional mayhem in
Speaker 1: the markets, both oil and shipping as we go forward
Speaker 1: and see what the follow from this is. In your world,
Speaker 1: there's Abu Dhabi, and then you go up to Dubai,
Speaker 1: and then you go up to russ alcame if I'm
Speaker 1: pronouncing that right, how far or close emotionally is a
Speaker 1: strait of Hormuz for the United Air Memorates and for
Speaker 1: that matter, for all the oil producers. Is this like
Speaker 1: an event right next door or is it removed? No,
Speaker 1: this is this is clearly next door. Uh fuj Eira,
Speaker 1: the port where the attacks took place last month is
Speaker 1: an hour by car from Dubai, just cutting across the mountains.
Speaker 1: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Russell Kinma, they're all on the US there.
Speaker 1: You didn't mention where the one of the other emirates,
Speaker 1: Sharjah Uh that's one of the emirates that had several
Speaker 1: islands taken by Iran just when the UA declared independence
Speaker 1: in one Uh. It was that that weekend that that
Speaker 1: the u A formed as a country and Iran seized
Speaker 1: three islands in the Gulf. So you know, these tensions
Speaker 1: go go way back uh, and they are coming back.
Speaker 1: But this is really um right in this neighborhood right here. Uh.
Speaker 1: The you mentioned one of the tankers had filled up
Speaker 1: in in Abu Dhabi in the port of Ruwyte. The
Speaker 1: other tanker co loaded a cargo of methanol that's another
Speaker 1: royal product uh in uh Katar and then went to
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia. So the last ports of call ports of
Speaker 1: call for these two vessels were Saudi Arabia and the
Speaker 1: U E. And they were hit just outside the straight
Speaker 1: of four moves, the choke point that leads into the
Speaker 1: Persian Gulf. Anthony rites to cant help with me this
Speaker 1: morning to get some more insight on this. That's Anthony
Speaker 1: de Pounder that Bloomberg's Middle East Energy Markets reported joint
Speaker 1: to get sat At Baby. Now to Jason Gammon, now
Speaker 1: Jeffrey's Energy Research unless he joins us out of the
Speaker 1: city of London. Jason, good day to you. Let's talk
Speaker 1: about the price action. This kind of incident took place
Speaker 1: a number of weeks ago. Crude rolled over by one
Speaker 1: ten since then, how do you frame this just in
Speaker 1: terms of the price action and crude right now, Jason,
Speaker 1: Jonathan I think we have a real tug at war
Speaker 1: between extreme concerns around the demand side and UH that's
Speaker 1: been corroborated by a large inventory builds in the US.
Speaker 1: Relative to all these potential disruptions to supply. We know
Speaker 1: that the UH the Iranian sanctions are starting to really
Speaker 1: bite into their exports. Even more. We know Venezuelan exports
Speaker 1: are down. I would have thought that the supply of
Speaker 1: tide concerns would have been really driving the price action.
Speaker 1: I've been dead wrong. It's really been more than con
Speaker 1: turns on the demand side. So when you have these
Speaker 1: two factors that are both potentially extreme, that's what leads
Speaker 1: to this high volatility and price. Let me cut to
Speaker 1: the chase. You got a high volatility in price, but
Speaker 1: I got a vector down. Many others are telling us
Speaker 1: stability or vector down an oil price. Is this tanker
Speaker 1: attacked an opportunity to short the market. Well, Tom, I
Speaker 1: I think the other big event that is coming up
Speaker 1: is the the OPEC Plus meeting, which could be on June,
Speaker 1: could be delayed into July. I think that that is
Speaker 1: a relatively critical event. I would see that as an
Speaker 1: event that probably has more downside than upside. To it. Uh,
Speaker 1: simply because I think the markets already pricing in and
Speaker 1: extension enough cuts into the back half. So you know
Speaker 1: that that might actually be a real catalyst if you
Speaker 1: if you want to short the market. And I want
Speaker 1: to explain that Mr Gamble, My question is what we
Speaker 1: call rude and Mr Gamble had answered that question John
Speaker 1: in a graceful way. Is any gentleman from the sales
Speaker 1: side would and I do apologize for saying should we
Speaker 1: short the market? Like in the next hour, Grates have
Speaker 1: Jason with us because Jason didn't just come with the
Speaker 1: commodity also covers the names the energy producers. So Jason,
Speaker 1: talk to me about what on earth people should be
Speaker 1: doing right now the companies that fall under your coverage
Speaker 1: because so many people have been burnt by the energy
Speaker 1: players as they start to see crude inflec higher. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, I think when it comes to actually investing
Speaker 1: in the equities, Jonathan, it's it's important to remember that
Speaker 1: these companies have really restructured their businesses to be able
Speaker 1: to fund their capital and dividends down to fifty and barrel. Uh,
Speaker 1: we we fit that Sprendt. That is, we are actually
Speaker 1: seeing pretty good valuation in these names. Uh. We believe
Speaker 1: that the market is now just discounting about fifty one
Speaker 1: dollar oil into the price they're playing. They're training at
Speaker 1: standard deviation below U. There are historic pe relative to
Speaker 1: the market, So I think there are good investment opportunities
Speaker 1: in the equities. I would say that if you think
Speaker 1: oil prices are going down, we probably want to wait
Speaker 1: to put on those equity trades. But we think there's
Speaker 1: a good die you here, Jason, thank you for the briefing. Jason,
Speaker 1: Kamba and Jeffreys Quickly. We had Paul Tutor Jones in
Speaker 1: yesterday and Charles cantre joins us from new Berger. Berman
Speaker 1: Pharall is going to bring him in and beat him
Speaker 1: to death because this is the global Wall Street discussion
Speaker 1: of the day. We're not going to talk about Whole
Speaker 1: Foods and Amazon. John. I can go to the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: and see that avocados are two point four standard deviations higher.
Speaker 1: Nobody cares. Let's talk about the courage in the market.
Speaker 1: I think it's really really difficult right now on a
Speaker 1: sector basis to position your portfolio. And what I'd love
Speaker 1: to talk to you about, Charles. The conversation had yesterday
Speaker 1: with Henry people in Advanced and he said, look, if
Speaker 1: you want to slip strip out the trade story from
Speaker 1: your portfolio and focus on sensitives that are less focused
Speaker 1: on sectors that are less sensitive to trade, you'll effectively
Speaker 1: end up exposing yourself to a really really domestic cyclical portfolio.
Speaker 1: And vice adversity be trying to strip out the cyclicality,
Speaker 1: you'll end up with the portfolio really really exposed to trade.
Speaker 1: So on a sector bast basis, it's really tough right now, Charles, Yes,
Speaker 1: and it's it's a stock picker's dream right now. John,
Speaker 1: it's um and and and you see that in the
Speaker 1: results of of of just those that are focused on
Speaker 1: on the individual securities and and and can manage and
Speaker 1: understand valuations and volatility. You can't strip out global trade
Speaker 1: because because our companies thankfully have become global and they've
Speaker 1: taken their products to the global stage to grow their
Speaker 1: earnings and cash flow. And so those moments where where
Speaker 1: people where the factors are driving underlying securities becomes the
Speaker 1: golden age of stock picking. And for us, we were
Speaker 1: fortunate because I don't think of us as radioactive. I
Speaker 1: think of us as double active because we get to
Speaker 1: take advantage of that opportunity on on both sides of
Speaker 1: the book, both being long and short. And so we
Speaker 1: we love opportunity set right now in in in in
Speaker 1: loving in in running a fundamentally driven long short equity strategy.
Speaker 1: And and it's super exciting because the factor stuff um
Speaker 1: is breaking down and and and the underlying security analysis
Speaker 1: is working again in a big way. So walk us
Speaker 1: through the process. Just help us understand a little bit
Speaker 1: how you're approaching these securities at the moment. Look, look,
Speaker 1: we've we own securities that went down forty five percent
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter and went up forty five in
Speaker 1: the first quarter. And I'll tell you nothing changed other
Speaker 1: than someone decided that was a fact that they didn't
Speaker 1: want or it was a factor that they did one
Speaker 1: and so on the long side of the book, it's
Speaker 1: all about understanding marginal safety and being an owner of businesses.
Speaker 1: And on the short side, it's it's rapid five, take
Speaker 1: advantage of the volatility, make make ten or twelve percent
Speaker 1: and move on and and and stocks stocks are reacting
Speaker 1: to news and fundamentals, And I think it will be
Speaker 1: very interesting from here for the next couple of quotas,
Speaker 1: because you know the stock markets were rebounded five percent.
Speaker 1: Yes it's two percent off, it's high. Yes, it's up
Speaker 1: a lot since since Christmas. But but but, but the fundamentals,
Speaker 1: I think given the global trade, I think you'll see
Speaker 1: a weaker earnings outlook as the numbers come through, and
Speaker 1: that will create more volatility as well. Tell us the
Speaker 1: physics of not the growth of revenues, the growth of
Speaker 1: operating income, the growth of free cash flow, but the
Speaker 1: persistency or or inertial force of one of those given metrics.
Speaker 1: To me, I look at consumer stocks, what evaluation and
Speaker 1: their ability to do it every day. Look on the
Speaker 1: consumer side, it you have retailers out there that will
Speaker 1: remain nameless for now that are trading at three times earning,
Speaker 1: three times ibada um and and the view there is
Speaker 1: Amazon and others, Um I'll putting you out of business
Speaker 1: each of them every day. And you have a real
Speaker 1: estate footprint that is way too large UM. For the side,
Speaker 1: we would be very reluctant to own those despite the valuation,
Speaker 1: because I think investings about thinking about the future, not
Speaker 1: thinking about where we've come from. UM. And so it's
Speaker 1: it's The big debate right now is is we are
Speaker 1: late cycle. And the question is what do you want
Speaker 1: to own when you laid cycle? You want to change
Speaker 1: and and I think my experiences in a recession, the
Speaker 1: value stocks actually get murdered because they are the most
Speaker 1: cyclical and low PE be comes infinitive pe because the
Speaker 1: earnings evaporate. And and and I think we stay focused
Speaker 1: on those businesses that, because of their secular dynamics, can
Speaker 1: continue to grow. And revenue growth solves all other problems
Speaker 1: because with it just does and and and it allows
Speaker 1: you the flexibility to to to to ride through um
Speaker 1: a cyclical slowdown. So you said it's the golden age
Speaker 1: for security selection, but you sudden wouldn't go as far
Speaker 1: as it's the time to begin picking up the value.
Speaker 1: I mean you think it's dangerous to start going down
Speaker 1: the value I wouldn't be going down the value chain.
Speaker 1: I would stay focused. I think you have to understand
Speaker 1: value and values in the eye of the beholder of course,
Speaker 1: um um. I mean look on the other side of
Speaker 1: the equation, you have software software companies that have unbelievably
Speaker 1: clear revenue growth prospects trading at ten eleven twelve times revenue.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure i'd go there either, UM, And I
Speaker 1: think I think the goal of us is to squarely
Speaker 1: in the middle. But we we were staying away from
Speaker 1: the cyclical stuff on the long side. Much more likely
Speaker 1: to find that on the short side. UM. Just given
Speaker 1: where we are in in in you know, at the
Speaker 1: back end, not the end of the cycle. I don't
Speaker 1: think we anywhere near the end of the cycle. But
Speaker 1: we're much closer to the end of the cycle than
Speaker 1: the beginning. And I think the debate we have at
Speaker 1: our firm is will value work better than growth? And
Speaker 1: I think growth just works better because because despite low valuations,
Speaker 1: the earnings um of a cyclical company evaporate. UM. In
Speaker 1: in a down to really smart shoves and great to
Speaker 1: see you as always. There's change cancer their new burger Berman,
Speaker 1: what do you have? It's gonna bring a Cathy James
Speaker 1: falls Okay, fringing, but please insist swap sense for financial
Speaker 1: Research Chief Fixed Income Strategies, Cathy. Great to have you
Speaker 1: with us on the program. Tom and are talking about
Speaker 1: the demand for sovereign paper is quite remarkable, isn't it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it is, but you know, when you think about it,
Speaker 1: there's just so little yield out there, particularly in sovereign
Speaker 1: paper that UM. If your pension fund, insurance company's sovereign
Speaker 1: wealth fund, you need, you need to buy something with yield,
Speaker 1: and you're gonna go. Okay, wherever you can find it
Speaker 1: is dividend growth, your new yield. Well, it's part of it.
Speaker 1: You know. When we talked to our m clients, what
Speaker 1: we talked about is, you know, getting yield in UM
Speaker 1: wherever you can get it right now, balancing that against
Speaker 1: the risk that you're taking. So, Cathy, let's talk about
Speaker 1: the risks. Nomura coming out with the really interesting survey
Speaker 1: and it's from the team in Asia, so this is
Speaker 1: an Asian audience to think about that. There's a bit
Speaker 1: of a regional bus here, but I still find it fascinating.
Speaker 1: The following quote. Around seventy of the participants expect Trump
Speaker 1: policies to be the most important determinant of risk sentiment
Speaker 1: in the next three to six months, followed by China stimulus.
Speaker 1: Less than ten percent viewed the US FED as an
Speaker 1: important driver. Just ten percent in the survey saw the
Speaker 1: FED and FED policy as the most important determinant of
Speaker 1: risk sentiment in the next three to six months. Kathy,
Speaker 1: what do you think about that? Well, I think they
Speaker 1: might be underestimating the influence of the FED. But I
Speaker 1: do think, you know, it makes sense because the you know,
Speaker 1: the administration's policies towards trade are really contributing to what's
Speaker 1: going on in the market. So if you look at
Speaker 1: what's slowing down manufacturing in the world, well, certainly a
Speaker 1: big contributor to that is this trade conflict and what's
Speaker 1: weighing on sentiment in certain areas, you know, the trade conflicts.
Speaker 1: So to some extent, that makes sense. But I wouldn't
Speaker 1: underestimate the Fez influence on the market. If you did
Speaker 1: an efficient market analysis. Let's say it's right, now, what's
Speaker 1: your waiting to fixed income? It's actually it actually well
Speaker 1: it depends on the person obviously, But you know, we're
Speaker 1: still pretty much in a sixty forty world because we're
Speaker 1: we're relatively cautious about the equity market because of this
Speaker 1: slowdown growth of that we're anticipating, and so we're we'd
Speaker 1: still be probably sixty forty maybe you know, in cash.
Speaker 1: So if I got this right, I mean, forget about
Speaker 1: the equity market, folks, go look at the double digit
Speaker 1: returns you've seen there. If I'm priced up in fixed income,
Speaker 1: how do I lock in that gain and adjust to
Speaker 1: your new reality of equity caution? Yeah, so it's been
Speaker 1: a you're to date has been fantastic in the fixed
Speaker 1: income So what do I do? Fantastic? Yeah, people don't
Speaker 1: realize how much total return has gone up. Well, we
Speaker 1: think you you have to shift up in credit quality.
Speaker 1: So hild had a eight percent total return I think
Speaker 1: here to date on the end of date or nine.
Speaker 1: That's six a year, folks. Just for those keeping score
Speaker 1: at home. Yeah, we're not multiplying by two. Oh well,
Speaker 1: I can do that because it's show biz. But our
Speaker 1: expectation is, you know, second half of the year at best,
Speaker 1: you probably earned the coupon. So we'd shift up in
Speaker 1: credit quality here, and that allows you to lock in
Speaker 1: some of the games that you might have gotten on
Speaker 1: the right gear part, Kathy. For a more adult view
Speaker 1: of the fixed income market, I recommend The Real Yield
Speaker 1: Fridays one pm a Bloomberg Television because John Farrell doesn't
Speaker 1: multiply by two. Kathy was on it recently appearance she
Speaker 1: had hire an ento uge just to look important. Said Kathy,
Speaker 1: pissing me on that statement going up in quality? What
Speaker 1: does that actually mean? So that means if you're and
Speaker 1: say the corporate bond sector, we would limit the exposure
Speaker 1: in high yield and in even an investment grade, we
Speaker 1: wouldn't get too concentrated at the lower tier, particularly the
Speaker 1: triple B area, which you know everybody knows is expanded
Speaker 1: in size and is now half of half the universe.
Speaker 1: So we try to work in some of those single
Speaker 1: A names and a little higher so that you're cushioned
Speaker 1: if we do hit um, a downturn in the economy,
Speaker 1: you don't want to have too much exposure to the
Speaker 1: weaker credits. Does this work both ways, Cathy? If you
Speaker 1: avoid the triple bes in investment grade and avoid the
Speaker 1: triple seas and say hi yield, but you want the
Speaker 1: single aiser investment grade, do you want the double bees
Speaker 1: in high yield or you just avoiding high yield altogether? Um?
Speaker 1: You know, I don't know that you'd get a tremendous
Speaker 1: amount of safety in the double bees. Um. If we
Speaker 1: go into a downturn, I think high yield will probably
Speaker 1: all moved together. So avoid some of these situations in
Speaker 1: the credit market, it's and the self renmark. I think
Speaker 1: we also need to have a conversation as well. We've
Speaker 1: had a big move in ten years, in thirty years,
Speaker 1: if you want to pick up some duration on the
Speaker 1: U S side of things, because you think that's going
Speaker 1: to be an effective hedge into a downturn given the
Speaker 1: move we've already had, Kathy, does that make sense? You know,
Speaker 1: you always need something because it's your single best Treasuries
Speaker 1: tend to be your single best diversifier versus stock. So
Speaker 1: if you're worried about the stock market, you want to hedge,
Speaker 1: you don't really have a lot of other options. But
Speaker 1: I would say, given the move that we've had a
Speaker 1: little bit, I'm a little reluctant to say now is
Speaker 1: the moment to add a lot of duration. You know,
Speaker 1: it goes a great idea six months ago. Right now,
Speaker 1: I think we could probably bounce. And I think the
Speaker 1: market is built in a little too much in the
Speaker 1: way of fat easing in the near term and a
Speaker 1: little too much on the downturn that everyone's expecting to
Speaker 1: come to the reality. And I just bring up Caterpillar
Speaker 1: because I just interviewed the Darren Hood the congressman from
Speaker 1: pure Illinois. Get a Caterpillar piece out nine years with
Speaker 1: a big fat coupon, is trading at one way over
Speaker 1: premium way out there to yield three point one percent.
Speaker 1: I mean even you know, in the old days of
Speaker 1: the SMP bond ledger, you know Pim Fox would bring
Speaker 1: it in for him and I look at how do
Speaker 1: you do this in corporate bonds right now with those
Speaker 1: low yields? Yeah, that's what trouble. The spreads are so tight,
Speaker 1: um and so far below average. So what does someone
Speaker 1: do a swap? I mean, what what are you buying
Speaker 1: fixed income given price up? Yeah, well we're you know,
Speaker 1: we're staying. Actually we're suggesting barbells, some short term paper
Speaker 1: and some longer term paper up and credit quality. We
Speaker 1: actually like municipal bonds because the yield curve is actually
Speaker 1: normally sloped in the municipal So you're the thing to say,
Speaker 1: for a taxable investor owned munis, it just depends on
Speaker 1: your tax bracket. It could make sense um, and particularly
Speaker 1: in in a higher tax state, it may actually make
Speaker 1: sense over corporate or treasury. I mean, Kathy Johns think
Speaker 1: of so much with Schwab's off hormos Hong Kong protests,
Speaker 1: they yield, the world's coming to an end. None of
Speaker 1: it matters. There is only one story today, particularly among
Speaker 1: the ut of America, in the ute of Wall Street,
Speaker 1: and that is you are with child and how many
Speaker 1: weeks do you get off? And of course I come
Speaker 1: with us with the ancient view of you were like
Speaker 1: back to work in two days. Rebecca Greenfield and a
Speaker 1: guy named x Abelson Wright the read on Wall Street Today,
Speaker 1: Wall Street Dad's find parental leave easier to get than
Speaker 1: to take Maxiet the ball out of the park. This
Speaker 1: is so so true. I'm given ex as or x
Speaker 1: weeks and I'm glued to the phone at home. Well,
Speaker 1: your listeners know that you're very hard to impress, so
Speaker 1: I'm really glad you feel that way. What do you do?
Speaker 1: Don't give me that, Rebecca, let me talk to you.
Speaker 1: Do you are you of child? Do you know? I don't,
Speaker 1: I don't have This is a huge deal. I mean
Speaker 1: we're getting there with women Dad's. I think it's really
Speaker 1: cool they take X amount of weeks off, But there's
Speaker 1: massive guilt the whole way. Is Jamie Diamond upset that
Speaker 1: somebody at JP Morgan is off for X number of weeks.
Speaker 1: I don't think you would say that. I think the
Speaker 1: banks are happy to be offering more and more time
Speaker 1: two people. UM they offer. They keep upping the amount
Speaker 1: of leaves that they are offering. UM. They offer up
Speaker 1: to sixteen weeks for primary caregivers and then a varying
Speaker 1: amount of time for secondary caregivers. But what we're finding
Speaker 1: is that by that time they're ready for s a prop.
Speaker 1: I disagree. I don't know about your kids. Evidently you've
Speaker 1: got supercocious little ones. Um. I. I think a lot
Speaker 1: of dads want to be home for that amount of time,
Speaker 1: and I think a lot of moms would appreciate them
Speaker 1: being confident. Okay, Max, I have to ask is this
Speaker 1: Are people finding it difficult to take this time off
Speaker 1: because their bosses are telling them that they can't, or
Speaker 1: because they feel guilty and they feel like their careers
Speaker 1: are going to suffer and they have not adjusted yet
Speaker 1: to the mindset of taking off weeks at a time
Speaker 1: in order to change diapers. I think guilt and fear
Speaker 1: definitely play a role. And we didn't talk to anyone
Speaker 1: who said, Lisa that there was an overt message from
Speaker 1: a boss being like, you know, Tom, do not take
Speaker 1: this leave. It was a little bit more ephemeral and
Speaker 1: the signals were more subtle. So, for example, we talked
Speaker 1: to this guy named ka Hi who was he was
Speaker 1: an m D at Black Rock, who talked about these
Speaker 1: nudges and winks, you know, hey, will we be able
Speaker 1: to reach you while you're gone? And it's that kind
Speaker 1: of thing that gave him the feeling like, you know what,
Speaker 1: what could possibly be so interesting that you would want
Speaker 1: to leave here for you know, ten days. I think
Speaker 1: he said something like, you know you're you're not the mother,
Speaker 1: So I guess that Rebecca, you're not the mother. And
Speaker 1: yet I'd really be curious to know how many women
Speaker 1: who go out maternity leave are still fielding phone calls
Speaker 1: and emails from work and don't fully disconnect as well,
Speaker 1: I mean, other words, how many women don't fully take
Speaker 1: off their leave. Also, I think there are certainly people
Speaker 1: who take time off and still are connected to work.
Speaker 1: I think the difference between men and women is that
Speaker 1: it is sometimes physically a lot harder for a woman
Speaker 1: if she has given birth to walk into the office
Speaker 1: the next day, and in a culture that really values
Speaker 1: that um it's going to be easier for men to
Speaker 1: do that. And so men do that, they do they
Speaker 1: can go back to your vast research. Did you find
Speaker 1: their women at home taking off X number of weeks?
Speaker 1: Everybody's loves it, great, great, great. Where they're basically saying
Speaker 1: to the dad, after one week or two weeks, here's
Speaker 1: the door, what's your hurry? Go back to work. It
Speaker 1: was more like talking to guys who said when I
Speaker 1: asked him about parents of leaving, I said, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm max tables sunds from boomer News about parents leave.
Speaker 1: I got emails back being like, what paternity leave? What
Speaker 1: are you even talking about? One executive told me that
Speaker 1: he didn't know a guy who took a paternity leave
Speaker 1: longer than a week at all. And you joked about
Speaker 1: people coming back to work to two days later, and
Speaker 1: and Becca just talked about how physically difficult it is
Speaker 1: for women to bounce back. I spoke to a guy
Speaker 1: who was a trader at JP Morgan. He literally came
Speaker 1: back to work that day his daughter was born. He
Speaker 1: was back. I've never done that. I didn't go back.
Speaker 1: You get I also just want to point out I
Speaker 1: want to point out that technically, these banks offer four
Speaker 1: months off to all parents, and then you know, between
Speaker 1: two weeks and six weeks off to other parents, So
Speaker 1: some dads can if they want, they are allowed to
Speaker 1: four months. Lisaway in here on this because you're facing
Speaker 1: this every day. I mean, there's offspring Brama Witz is well,
Speaker 1: and you know it is a change society. I talked
Speaker 1: to a senior officer Bloomberg about this at length the
Speaker 1: other day, Lisa, and it's almost like the companies are
Speaker 1: out front of the employees. Do you sense that, Lisa, Yes,
Speaker 1: I think that that is. I think that that's really fair.
Speaker 1: In other words, how much are people in the mindset
Speaker 1: men in particular, to take that time off and be
Speaker 1: at home, especially because it's actually kind of grunt work
Speaker 1: at the very beginning. People don't really talk about this,
Speaker 1: but the baby doesn't do all that much at the
Speaker 1: very beginning. It really is changing the diapers, doing doctors visits,
Speaker 1: getting accliment tied to the idea that you're not going
Speaker 1: to be sleeping all that much. But Rebecca, I guess
Speaker 1: that I'm curious going forward what companies are doing to
Speaker 1: try to foster more of a culture of taking this
Speaker 1: time off. I mean, has there been any discussion about
Speaker 1: perhaps having flex time, not necessarily taking an all at
Speaker 1: the beginning in sort of a a three month chunk,
Speaker 1: but basically bleeding it out over time, with being able
Speaker 1: to take days to take the kid to the to
Speaker 1: the doctor or fill in after the wife goes back
Speaker 1: to work. Yeah, so a couple of things. Um. One
Speaker 1: thing companies can do is just offer the same amount
Speaker 1: of time to all parents, not have these tiered systems
Speaker 1: where some people get two weeks and some people get
Speaker 1: sixteen weeks. And then there are also companies allowing for
Speaker 1: more flexibility so you don't have to take it all
Speaker 1: in the beginning. And like you said, you know, I
Speaker 1: think some people might think it's more helpful to have
Speaker 1: their partner there later. Not right, Can I take flex
Speaker 1: time with a twelve year old? So I go wait
Speaker 1: in line at Glossier for four hours to get in?
Speaker 1: Thank you, Max, the right answer. I need to switch
Speaker 1: hears when we've got Rebecca with us in Max, we
Speaker 1: we've got to switch user. Max. I need an update
Speaker 1: with you with all your Wall Street perspective on the
Speaker 1: future of Deutsche Bank New York. Oh boy, well, Deutsche
Speaker 1: Bank just can't seem to get out of its own way.
Speaker 1: I mean, what's the energy. I mean, Sally Baska and
Speaker 1: you you're on the street, you're needy, buried in this,
Speaker 1: give me the future Deutsche Bank. And then I got
Speaker 1: a question for Rebecca Well. I gotta say, if you
Speaker 1: want to know what's going out of Deutche Bank, you
Speaker 1: talked to Shinali, not me. But let's just think about
Speaker 1: what bars you know? You come on, you know the
Speaker 1: gossip Max Trouble. Yes, Tom Guineas tried to get me
Speaker 1: in trouble many times. I'll just say this. My friend
Speaker 1: Kay Wiggins, one of my favorite Bloomberg colleagues in England,
Speaker 1: just reported in the last I mean this was like
Speaker 1: literally yesterday. Every day it feels like there's something new
Speaker 1: that seems like something from a showtime show happening. Deutsche
Speaker 1: Bank apparently had these red flags that were going up
Speaker 1: about kickbacks, and Deutscha Bank was just doing nothing on Florida,
Speaker 1: doing nothing, but that they didn't worry. So I mean,
Speaker 1: I think that if you without getting in trouble honestly
Speaker 1: can answer is if you pull up Bloomberg News on
Speaker 1: any given morning, you'll find out some sort of like
Speaker 1: bone rattling, Rebecca, Rebecca, I gotta go to you just
Speaker 1: because the time I'm running out. Rebecc Greenfield, you bleed
Speaker 1: the Atlantic. It is iconic magazine in America. What do
Speaker 1: you see in the magazine business right now? What's the
Speaker 1: two thousand twenty of magazines in America? Of magazines? Um,
Speaker 1: I don't know that I'm I'm qualified to talk. You know,
Speaker 1: you did did the whole thing in digital in the
Speaker 1: Atlantic and all that. Yeah, I I uh, what is
Speaker 1: I think? Um? Everyone in trouble today. I know. I
Speaker 1: think there's a big conversation right now happening about who
Speaker 1: should be writing magazine cover stories. Um, set off by
Speaker 1: the editor in chief of The Atlantic, Jeff Goldberg. K
Speaker 1: Um suggested that only there are more white male candidates
Speaker 1: qualified to write magazine story. So I hope the future
Speaker 1: of magazines is a move away from that and more
Speaker 1: experimentation and who writes what's very cool? Rebecca Greenfield very
Speaker 1: good on journalism and her work there in Max Abelson
Speaker 1: on the Gossipel Wall Street Combined Today, Lisa Abramowitz, I
Speaker 1: love this line. Wall Street. Dad's find parentally easier to
Speaker 1: get alright under it is, so who wrote this headline?
Speaker 1: To Max? Did you write this? I think we've got
Speaker 1: to give a shout out to Janet Paskin I editor, Lisa.
Speaker 1: What do you think, Tom? I think it's great, you know,
Speaker 1: because you're putting everyone on the spot. What's your view
Speaker 1: in vlogs because you have you have you have a daughter. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not happy about it. Where this is
Speaker 1: a massive debating home. I mean it's it's like massive.
Speaker 1: We're like digitally diminishing at the Keen household, digitally diminishing
Speaker 1: as best as we can. I feel like, what is this?
Speaker 1: I feel like I'm on the view right now with
Speaker 1: Max back up. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or
Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom
Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.