1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm term Keene jay Leie. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomber So 5 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: the Persian Gulf into the Straight of Homer's into the 6 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:32,239 Speaker 1: Gulf of a Man, and it's in the Gulf of 7 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 1: a Man going into the Straight of Homer's that we've 8 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 1: heard from two tankers who were reportedly damaged in a 9 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: suspected attack just in the Gulf of a Man, just 10 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: weeks after a previous incident in the region. One of 11 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 1: the owners, So we've got a Japanese owner of one 12 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: of these vessels telling local media it had been hit 13 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:49,840 Speaker 1: by a shell. The second tanker, this tanker is owned 14 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 1: by Norway's Frontline, suffered three detonations. This is according to 15 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 1: the Norway Maritime Authority. Both ships have been evacuated. Crude 16 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: yesterday had a really sessions. We bounced aggressively off a 17 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: five month low this morning, up around about three percentage 18 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: points on both Brent and w C. I to get 19 00:01:07,880 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: some more insight and clarity as to what is happening 20 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 1: in the region. I want to bring in from Dubai. 21 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 1: Anthony Di Paola Bloomberg Middle East Energy Markets Reporter, Anthony, 22 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: Good morning to you, sir. Just walk us through what 23 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: we know so far and what we're learning is the 24 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: as progress. Good morning to you there. Well, what we're 25 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: really looking to learn still is what the exact cause 26 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 1: of these attacks was. We we don't know. In the 27 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 1: case of either ships. There were explosions, there were fires 28 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 1: on both ships, but you don't know what caused those, 29 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 1: and then we will be looking for some responsibility. UM. 30 00:01:38,920 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: The attacks that you mentioned that took place in the 31 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 1: Portafu Gerra just last month. UM, people there, the US, 32 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 1: the saluities pointed the figure at the finger at Iran. 33 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: The UA itself hasn't yet a signed to blame. They 34 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:56,600 Speaker 1: said it was a state actor involved, so we'll be 35 00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 1: looking to see where the blame is pointed here. We 36 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: do know that the cruise have been taken off those vessels. UM. 37 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:09,079 Speaker 1: There are, as you've mentioned, rescue and and and retrieval 38 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: operations going on there to try to secure these vessels 39 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 1: and and and luckily that the cruiser are safe. But 40 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: we will be seeing a lot of additional mayhem in 41 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 1: the markets, both oil and shipping as we go forward 42 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: and see what the follow from this is. In your world, 43 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 1: there's Abu Dhabi, and then you go up to Dubai, 44 00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 1: and then you go up to russ alcame if I'm 45 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 1: pronouncing that right, how far or close emotionally is a 46 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: strait of Hormuz for the United Air Memorates and for 47 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,080 Speaker 1: that matter, for all the oil producers. Is this like 48 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 1: an event right next door or is it removed? No, 49 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 1: this is this is clearly next door. Uh fuj Eira, 50 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 1: the port where the attacks took place last month is 51 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 1: an hour by car from Dubai, just cutting across the mountains. 52 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 1: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Russell Kinma, they're all on the US there. 53 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: You didn't mention where the one of the other emirates, 54 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 1: Sharjah Uh that's one of the emirates that had several 55 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 1: islands taken by Iran just when the UA declared independence 56 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 1: in one Uh. It was that that weekend that that 57 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: the u A formed as a country and Iran seized 58 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 1: three islands in the Gulf. So you know, these tensions 59 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: go go way back uh, and they are coming back. 60 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: But this is really um right in this neighborhood right here. Uh. 61 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: The you mentioned one of the tankers had filled up 62 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 1: in in Abu Dhabi in the port of Ruwyte. The 63 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: other tanker co loaded a cargo of methanol that's another 64 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:38,960 Speaker 1: royal product uh in uh Katar and then went to 65 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia. So the last ports of call ports of 66 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: call for these two vessels were Saudi Arabia and the 67 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: U E. And they were hit just outside the straight 68 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: of four moves, the choke point that leads into the 69 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: Persian Gulf. Anthony rites to cant help with me this 70 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: morning to get some more insight on this. That's Anthony 71 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,680 Speaker 1: de Pounder that Bloomberg's Middle East Energy Markets reported joint 72 00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 1: to get sat At Baby. Now to Jason Gammon, now 73 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 1: Jeffrey's Energy Research unless he joins us out of the 74 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: city of London. Jason, good day to you. Let's talk 75 00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 1: about the price action. This kind of incident took place 76 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: a number of weeks ago. Crude rolled over by one 77 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 1: ten since then, how do you frame this just in 78 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 1: terms of the price action and crude right now, Jason, 79 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 1: Jonathan I think we have a real tug at war 80 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 1: between extreme concerns around the demand side and UH that's 81 00:04:37,400 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: been corroborated by a large inventory builds in the US. 82 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: Relative to all these potential disruptions to supply. We know 83 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 1: that the UH the Iranian sanctions are starting to really 84 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 1: bite into their exports. Even more. We know Venezuelan exports 85 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,160 Speaker 1: are down. I would have thought that the supply of 86 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: tide concerns would have been really driving the price action. 87 00:04:58,200 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: I've been dead wrong. It's really been more than con 88 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 1: turns on the demand side. So when you have these 89 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: two factors that are both potentially extreme, that's what leads 90 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,240 Speaker 1: to this high volatility and price. Let me cut to 91 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 1: the chase. You got a high volatility in price, but 92 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: I got a vector down. Many others are telling us 93 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: stability or vector down an oil price. Is this tanker 94 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 1: attacked an opportunity to short the market. Well, Tom, I 95 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 1: I think the other big event that is coming up 96 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 1: is the the OPEC Plus meeting, which could be on June, 97 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 1: could be delayed into July. I think that that is 98 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 1: a relatively critical event. I would see that as an 99 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 1: event that probably has more downside than upside. To it. Uh, 100 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 1: simply because I think the markets already pricing in and 101 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: extension enough cuts into the back half. So you know 102 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 1: that that might actually be a real catalyst if you 103 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: if you want to short the market. And I want 104 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 1: to explain that Mr Gamble, My question is what we 105 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: call rude and Mr Gamble had answered that question John 106 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: in a graceful way. Is any gentleman from the sales 107 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: side would and I do apologize for saying should we 108 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 1: short the market? Like in the next hour, Grates have 109 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 1: Jason with us because Jason didn't just come with the 110 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: commodity also covers the names the energy producers. So Jason, 111 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 1: talk to me about what on earth people should be 112 00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 1: doing right now the companies that fall under your coverage 113 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:16,799 Speaker 1: because so many people have been burnt by the energy 114 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 1: players as they start to see crude inflec higher. Well, 115 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:24,679 Speaker 1: you know, I think when it comes to actually investing 116 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 1: in the equities, Jonathan, it's it's important to remember that 117 00:06:27,240 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: these companies have really restructured their businesses to be able 118 00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: to fund their capital and dividends down to fifty and barrel. Uh, 119 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: we we fit that Sprendt. That is, we are actually 120 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 1: seeing pretty good valuation in these names. Uh. We believe 121 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,359 Speaker 1: that the market is now just discounting about fifty one 122 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 1: dollar oil into the price they're playing. They're training at 123 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 1: standard deviation below U. There are historic pe relative to 124 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 1: the market, So I think there are good investment opportunities 125 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 1: in the equities. I would say that if you think 126 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 1: oil prices are going down, we probably want to wait 127 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: to put on those equity trades. But we think there's 128 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: a good die you here, Jason, thank you for the briefing. Jason, 129 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 1: Kamba and Jeffreys Quickly. We had Paul Tutor Jones in 130 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 1: yesterday and Charles cantre joins us from new Berger. Berman 131 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: Pharall is going to bring him in and beat him 132 00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:28,960 Speaker 1: to death because this is the global Wall Street discussion 133 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 1: of the day. We're not going to talk about Whole 134 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 1: Foods and Amazon. John. I can go to the Bloomberg 135 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: and see that avocados are two point four standard deviations higher. 136 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: Nobody cares. Let's talk about the courage in the market. 137 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: I think it's really really difficult right now on a 138 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 1: sector basis to position your portfolio. And what I'd love 139 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 1: to talk to you about, Charles. The conversation had yesterday 140 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 1: with Henry people in Advanced and he said, look, if 141 00:07:52,160 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: you want to slip strip out the trade story from 142 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: your portfolio and focus on sensitives that are less focused 143 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,160 Speaker 1: on sectors that are less sensitive to trade, you'll effectively 144 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: end up exposing yourself to a really really domestic cyclical portfolio. 145 00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: And vice adversity be trying to strip out the cyclicality, 146 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:11,679 Speaker 1: you'll end up with the portfolio really really exposed to trade. 147 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: So on a sector bast basis, it's really tough right now, Charles, Yes, 148 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: and it's it's a stock picker's dream right now. John, 149 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 1: it's um and and and you see that in the 150 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: results of of of just those that are focused on 151 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 1: on the individual securities and and and can manage and 152 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 1: understand valuations and volatility. You can't strip out global trade 153 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: because because our companies thankfully have become global and they've 154 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: taken their products to the global stage to grow their 155 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 1: earnings and cash flow. And so those moments where where 156 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:48,319 Speaker 1: people where the factors are driving underlying securities becomes the 157 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: golden age of stock picking. And for us, we were 158 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,160 Speaker 1: fortunate because I don't think of us as radioactive. I 159 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: think of us as double active because we get to 160 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 1: take advantage of that opportunity on on both sides of 161 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 1: the book, both being long and short. And so we 162 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: we love opportunity set right now in in in in 163 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: loving in in running a fundamentally driven long short equity strategy. 164 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: And and it's super exciting because the factor stuff um 165 00:09:15,559 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: is breaking down and and and the underlying security analysis 166 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: is working again in a big way. So walk us 167 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: through the process. Just help us understand a little bit 168 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: how you're approaching these securities at the moment. Look, look, 169 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 1: we've we own securities that went down forty five percent 170 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,079 Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter and went up forty five in 171 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 1: the first quarter. And I'll tell you nothing changed other 172 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 1: than someone decided that was a fact that they didn't 173 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: want or it was a factor that they did one 174 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 1: and so on the long side of the book, it's 175 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 1: all about understanding marginal safety and being an owner of businesses. 176 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:48,079 Speaker 1: And on the short side, it's it's rapid five, take 177 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,319 Speaker 1: advantage of the volatility, make make ten or twelve percent 178 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: and move on and and and stocks stocks are reacting 179 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 1: to news and fundamentals, And I think it will be 180 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 1: very interesting from here for the next couple of quotas, 181 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 1: because you know the stock markets were rebounded five percent. 182 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: Yes it's two percent off, it's high. Yes, it's up 183 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:11,040 Speaker 1: a lot since since Christmas. But but but, but the fundamentals, 184 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 1: I think given the global trade, I think you'll see 185 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,079 Speaker 1: a weaker earnings outlook as the numbers come through, and 186 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 1: that will create more volatility as well. Tell us the 187 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: physics of not the growth of revenues, the growth of 188 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:25,319 Speaker 1: operating income, the growth of free cash flow, but the 189 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 1: persistency or or inertial force of one of those given metrics. 190 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:34,679 Speaker 1: To me, I look at consumer stocks, what evaluation and 191 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,959 Speaker 1: their ability to do it every day. Look on the 192 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 1: consumer side, it you have retailers out there that will 193 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: remain nameless for now that are trading at three times earning, 194 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 1: three times ibada um and and the view there is 195 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:54,680 Speaker 1: Amazon and others, Um I'll putting you out of business 196 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: each of them every day. And you have a real 197 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 1: estate footprint that is way too large UM. For the side, 198 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: we would be very reluctant to own those despite the valuation, 199 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:07,679 Speaker 1: because I think investings about thinking about the future, not 200 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 1: thinking about where we've come from. UM. And so it's 201 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: it's The big debate right now is is we are 202 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:17,040 Speaker 1: late cycle. And the question is what do you want 203 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:19,959 Speaker 1: to own when you laid cycle? You want to change 204 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:24,599 Speaker 1: and and I think my experiences in a recession, the 205 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 1: value stocks actually get murdered because they are the most 206 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:31,839 Speaker 1: cyclical and low PE be comes infinitive pe because the 207 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 1: earnings evaporate. And and and I think we stay focused 208 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 1: on those businesses that, because of their secular dynamics, can 209 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 1: continue to grow. And revenue growth solves all other problems 210 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: because with it just does and and and it allows 211 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:52,439 Speaker 1: you the flexibility to to to to ride through um 212 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 1: a cyclical slowdown. So you said it's the golden age 213 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 1: for security selection, but you sudden wouldn't go as far 214 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 1: as it's the time to begin picking up the value. 215 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 1: I mean you think it's dangerous to start going down 216 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: the value I wouldn't be going down the value chain. 217 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 1: I would stay focused. I think you have to understand 218 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 1: value and values in the eye of the beholder of course, 219 00:12:10,920 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 1: um um. I mean look on the other side of 220 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 1: the equation, you have software software companies that have unbelievably 221 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: clear revenue growth prospects trading at ten eleven twelve times revenue. 222 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: I'm not sure i'd go there either, UM, And I 223 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 1: think I think the goal of us is to squarely 224 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: in the middle. But we we were staying away from 225 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 1: the cyclical stuff on the long side. Much more likely 226 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: to find that on the short side. UM. Just given 227 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 1: where we are in in in you know, at the 228 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 1: back end, not the end of the cycle. I don't 229 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: think we anywhere near the end of the cycle. But 230 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,280 Speaker 1: we're much closer to the end of the cycle than 231 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: the beginning. And I think the debate we have at 232 00:12:47,520 --> 00:12:50,439 Speaker 1: our firm is will value work better than growth? And 233 00:12:51,120 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 1: I think growth just works better because because despite low valuations, 234 00:12:56,160 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 1: the earnings um of a cyclical company evaporate. UM. In 235 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:03,559 Speaker 1: in a down to really smart shoves and great to 236 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 1: see you as always. There's change cancer their new burger Berman, 237 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:20,719 Speaker 1: what do you have? It's gonna bring a Cathy James 238 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 1: falls Okay, fringing, but please insist swap sense for financial 239 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: Research Chief Fixed Income Strategies, Cathy. Great to have you 240 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 1: with us on the program. Tom and are talking about 241 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 1: the demand for sovereign paper is quite remarkable, isn't it. Yeah, 242 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 1: it is, but you know, when you think about it, 243 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: there's just so little yield out there, particularly in sovereign 244 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: paper that UM. If your pension fund, insurance company's sovereign 245 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: wealth fund, you need, you need to buy something with yield, 246 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,079 Speaker 1: and you're gonna go. Okay, wherever you can find it 247 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:52,559 Speaker 1: is dividend growth, your new yield. Well, it's part of it. 248 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,079 Speaker 1: You know. When we talked to our m clients, what 249 00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 1: we talked about is, you know, getting yield in UM 250 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 1: wherever you can get it right now, balancing that against 251 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 1: the risk that you're taking. So, Cathy, let's talk about 252 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: the risks. Nomura coming out with the really interesting survey 253 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 1: and it's from the team in Asia, so this is 254 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 1: an Asian audience to think about that. There's a bit 255 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,119 Speaker 1: of a regional bus here, but I still find it fascinating. 256 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:18,240 Speaker 1: The following quote. Around seventy of the participants expect Trump 257 00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,600 Speaker 1: policies to be the most important determinant of risk sentiment 258 00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:24,560 Speaker 1: in the next three to six months, followed by China stimulus. 259 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 1: Less than ten percent viewed the US FED as an 260 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:33,080 Speaker 1: important driver. Just ten percent in the survey saw the 261 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: FED and FED policy as the most important determinant of 262 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 1: risk sentiment in the next three to six months. Kathy, 263 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 1: what do you think about that? Well, I think they 264 00:14:41,960 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 1: might be underestimating the influence of the FED. But I 265 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 1: do think, you know, it makes sense because the you know, 266 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 1: the administration's policies towards trade are really contributing to what's 267 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: going on in the market. So if you look at 268 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 1: what's slowing down manufacturing in the world, well, certainly a 269 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 1: big contributor to that is this trade conflict and what's 270 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: weighing on sentiment in certain areas, you know, the trade conflicts. 271 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: So to some extent, that makes sense. But I wouldn't 272 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 1: underestimate the Fez influence on the market. If you did 273 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: an efficient market analysis. Let's say it's right, now, what's 274 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 1: your waiting to fixed income? It's actually it actually well 275 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: it depends on the person obviously, But you know, we're 276 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 1: still pretty much in a sixty forty world because we're 277 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: we're relatively cautious about the equity market because of this 278 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 1: slowdown growth of that we're anticipating, and so we're we'd 279 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: still be probably sixty forty maybe you know, in cash. 280 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: So if I got this right, I mean, forget about 281 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:45,720 Speaker 1: the equity market, folks, go look at the double digit 282 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 1: returns you've seen there. If I'm priced up in fixed income, 283 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 1: how do I lock in that gain and adjust to 284 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 1: your new reality of equity caution? Yeah, so it's been 285 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 1: a you're to date has been fantastic in the fixed 286 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 1: income So what do I do? Fantastic? Yeah, people don't 287 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: realize how much total return has gone up. Well, we 288 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 1: think you you have to shift up in credit quality. 289 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: So hild had a eight percent total return I think 290 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 1: here to date on the end of date or nine. 291 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 1: That's six a year, folks. Just for those keeping score 292 00:16:21,560 --> 00:16:24,600 Speaker 1: at home. Yeah, we're not multiplying by two. Oh well, 293 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 1: I can do that because it's show biz. But our 294 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: expectation is, you know, second half of the year at best, 295 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,120 Speaker 1: you probably earned the coupon. So we'd shift up in 296 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 1: credit quality here, and that allows you to lock in 297 00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 1: some of the games that you might have gotten on 298 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 1: the right gear part, Kathy. For a more adult view 299 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: of the fixed income market, I recommend The Real Yield 300 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:48,960 Speaker 1: Fridays one pm a Bloomberg Television because John Farrell doesn't 301 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 1: multiply by two. Kathy was on it recently appearance she 302 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 1: had hire an ento uge just to look important. Said Kathy, 303 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 1: pissing me on that statement going up in quality? What 304 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 1: does that actually mean? So that means if you're and 305 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 1: say the corporate bond sector, we would limit the exposure 306 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 1: in high yield and in even an investment grade, we 307 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 1: wouldn't get too concentrated at the lower tier, particularly the 308 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 1: triple B area, which you know everybody knows is expanded 309 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:20,880 Speaker 1: in size and is now half of half the universe. 310 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 1: So we try to work in some of those single 311 00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 1: A names and a little higher so that you're cushioned 312 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 1: if we do hit um, a downturn in the economy, 313 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 1: you don't want to have too much exposure to the 314 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 1: weaker credits. Does this work both ways, Cathy? If you 315 00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: avoid the triple bes in investment grade and avoid the 316 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 1: triple seas and say hi yield, but you want the 317 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 1: single aiser investment grade, do you want the double bees 318 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:46,400 Speaker 1: in high yield or you just avoiding high yield altogether? Um? 319 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:48,840 Speaker 1: You know, I don't know that you'd get a tremendous 320 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 1: amount of safety in the double bees. Um. If we 321 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:53,959 Speaker 1: go into a downturn, I think high yield will probably 322 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:58,119 Speaker 1: all moved together. So avoid some of these situations in 323 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 1: the credit market, it's and the self renmark. I think 324 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: we also need to have a conversation as well. We've 325 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 1: had a big move in ten years, in thirty years, 326 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:07,440 Speaker 1: if you want to pick up some duration on the 327 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 1: U S side of things, because you think that's going 328 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:12,440 Speaker 1: to be an effective hedge into a downturn given the 329 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 1: move we've already had, Kathy, does that make sense? You know, 330 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 1: you always need something because it's your single best Treasuries 331 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,520 Speaker 1: tend to be your single best diversifier versus stock. So 332 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: if you're worried about the stock market, you want to hedge, 333 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: you don't really have a lot of other options. But 334 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 1: I would say, given the move that we've had a 335 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 1: little bit, I'm a little reluctant to say now is 336 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,320 Speaker 1: the moment to add a lot of duration. You know, 337 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:37,479 Speaker 1: it goes a great idea six months ago. Right now, 338 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: I think we could probably bounce. And I think the 339 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 1: market is built in a little too much in the 340 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 1: way of fat easing in the near term and a 341 00:18:43,119 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 1: little too much on the downturn that everyone's expecting to 342 00:18:47,040 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 1: come to the reality. And I just bring up Caterpillar 343 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 1: because I just interviewed the Darren Hood the congressman from 344 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 1: pure Illinois. Get a Caterpillar piece out nine years with 345 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 1: a big fat coupon, is trading at one way over 346 00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 1: premium way out there to yield three point one percent. 347 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 1: I mean even you know, in the old days of 348 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 1: the SMP bond ledger, you know Pim Fox would bring 349 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: it in for him and I look at how do 350 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,360 Speaker 1: you do this in corporate bonds right now with those 351 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:24,240 Speaker 1: low yields? Yeah, that's what trouble. The spreads are so tight, 352 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 1: um and so far below average. So what does someone 353 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,879 Speaker 1: do a swap? I mean, what what are you buying 354 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:34,800 Speaker 1: fixed income given price up? Yeah, well we're you know, 355 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: we're staying. Actually we're suggesting barbells, some short term paper 356 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,879 Speaker 1: and some longer term paper up and credit quality. We 357 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 1: actually like municipal bonds because the yield curve is actually 358 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: normally sloped in the municipal So you're the thing to say, 359 00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:50,639 Speaker 1: for a taxable investor owned munis, it just depends on 360 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 1: your tax bracket. It could make sense um, and particularly 361 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: in in a higher tax state, it may actually make 362 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:01,440 Speaker 1: sense over corporate or treasury. I mean, Kathy Johns think 363 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: of so much with Schwab's off hormos Hong Kong protests, 364 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,320 Speaker 1: they yield, the world's coming to an end. None of 365 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: it matters. There is only one story today, particularly among 366 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: the ut of America, in the ute of Wall Street, 367 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: and that is you are with child and how many 368 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 1: weeks do you get off? And of course I come 369 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,920 Speaker 1: with us with the ancient view of you were like 370 00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,920 Speaker 1: back to work in two days. Rebecca Greenfield and a 371 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:47,679 Speaker 1: guy named x Abelson Wright the read on Wall Street Today, 372 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:53,080 Speaker 1: Wall Street Dad's find parental leave easier to get than 373 00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,159 Speaker 1: to take Maxiet the ball out of the park. This 374 00:20:56,440 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 1: is so so true. I'm given ex as or x 375 00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,520 Speaker 1: weeks and I'm glued to the phone at home. Well, 376 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 1: your listeners know that you're very hard to impress, so 377 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:09,680 Speaker 1: I'm really glad you feel that way. What do you do? 378 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:11,800 Speaker 1: Don't give me that, Rebecca, let me talk to you. 379 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 1: Do you are you of child? Do you know? I don't, 380 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,679 Speaker 1: I don't have This is a huge deal. I mean 381 00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 1: we're getting there with women Dad's. I think it's really 382 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 1: cool they take X amount of weeks off, But there's 383 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 1: massive guilt the whole way. Is Jamie Diamond upset that 384 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 1: somebody at JP Morgan is off for X number of weeks. 385 00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:33,639 Speaker 1: I don't think you would say that. I think the 386 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: banks are happy to be offering more and more time 387 00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 1: two people. UM they offer. They keep upping the amount 388 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 1: of leaves that they are offering. UM. They offer up 389 00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 1: to sixteen weeks for primary caregivers and then a varying 390 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:50,000 Speaker 1: amount of time for secondary caregivers. But what we're finding 391 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 1: is that by that time they're ready for s a prop. 392 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: I disagree. I don't know about your kids. Evidently you've 393 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:02,040 Speaker 1: got supercocious little ones. Um. I. I think a lot 394 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: of dads want to be home for that amount of time, 395 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,399 Speaker 1: and I think a lot of moms would appreciate them 396 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 1: being confident. Okay, Max, I have to ask is this 397 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: Are people finding it difficult to take this time off 398 00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:21,200 Speaker 1: because their bosses are telling them that they can't, or 399 00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 1: because they feel guilty and they feel like their careers 400 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 1: are going to suffer and they have not adjusted yet 401 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,920 Speaker 1: to the mindset of taking off weeks at a time 402 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 1: in order to change diapers. I think guilt and fear 403 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,160 Speaker 1: definitely play a role. And we didn't talk to anyone 404 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,239 Speaker 1: who said, Lisa that there was an overt message from 405 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 1: a boss being like, you know, Tom, do not take 406 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: this leave. It was a little bit more ephemeral and 407 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 1: the signals were more subtle. So, for example, we talked 408 00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: to this guy named ka Hi who was he was 409 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 1: an m D at Black Rock, who talked about these 410 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 1: nudges and winks, you know, hey, will we be able 411 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 1: to reach you while you're gone? And it's that kind 412 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:01,159 Speaker 1: of thing that gave him the feeling like, you know what, 413 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,560 Speaker 1: what could possibly be so interesting that you would want 414 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: to leave here for you know, ten days. I think 415 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 1: he said something like, you know you're you're not the mother, 416 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: So I guess that Rebecca, you're not the mother. And 417 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,120 Speaker 1: yet I'd really be curious to know how many women 418 00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,439 Speaker 1: who go out maternity leave are still fielding phone calls 419 00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,439 Speaker 1: and emails from work and don't fully disconnect as well, 420 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 1: I mean, other words, how many women don't fully take 421 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 1: off their leave. Also, I think there are certainly people 422 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 1: who take time off and still are connected to work. 423 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,440 Speaker 1: I think the difference between men and women is that 424 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:35,480 Speaker 1: it is sometimes physically a lot harder for a woman 425 00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 1: if she has given birth to walk into the office 426 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,440 Speaker 1: the next day, and in a culture that really values 427 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: that um it's going to be easier for men to 428 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,639 Speaker 1: do that. And so men do that, they do they 429 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:51,119 Speaker 1: can go back to your vast research. Did you find 430 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,119 Speaker 1: their women at home taking off X number of weeks? 431 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: Everybody's loves it, great, great, great. Where they're basically saying 432 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 1: to the dad, after one week or two weeks, here's 433 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,040 Speaker 1: the door, what's your hurry? Go back to work. It 434 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,200 Speaker 1: was more like talking to guys who said when I 435 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:07,760 Speaker 1: asked him about parents of leaving, I said, you know, 436 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: I'm max tables sunds from boomer News about parents leave. 437 00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,000 Speaker 1: I got emails back being like, what paternity leave? What 438 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 1: are you even talking about? One executive told me that 439 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 1: he didn't know a guy who took a paternity leave 440 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: longer than a week at all. And you joked about 441 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 1: people coming back to work to two days later, and 442 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,680 Speaker 1: and Becca just talked about how physically difficult it is 443 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,920 Speaker 1: for women to bounce back. I spoke to a guy 444 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 1: who was a trader at JP Morgan. He literally came 445 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: back to work that day his daughter was born. He 446 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:39,480 Speaker 1: was back. I've never done that. I didn't go back. 447 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:44,359 Speaker 1: You get I also just want to point out I 448 00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 1: want to point out that technically, these banks offer four 449 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 1: months off to all parents, and then you know, between 450 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,879 Speaker 1: two weeks and six weeks off to other parents, So 451 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 1: some dads can if they want, they are allowed to 452 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,359 Speaker 1: four months. Lisaway in here on this because you're facing 453 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 1: this every day. I mean, there's offspring Brama Witz is well, 454 00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 1: and you know it is a change society. I talked 455 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 1: to a senior officer Bloomberg about this at length the 456 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,920 Speaker 1: other day, Lisa, and it's almost like the companies are 457 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 1: out front of the employees. Do you sense that, Lisa, Yes, 458 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 1: I think that that is. I think that that's really fair. 459 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 1: In other words, how much are people in the mindset 460 00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,560 Speaker 1: men in particular, to take that time off and be 461 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,240 Speaker 1: at home, especially because it's actually kind of grunt work 462 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,119 Speaker 1: at the very beginning. People don't really talk about this, 463 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 1: but the baby doesn't do all that much at the 464 00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: very beginning. It really is changing the diapers, doing doctors visits, 465 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,080 Speaker 1: getting accliment tied to the idea that you're not going 466 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 1: to be sleeping all that much. But Rebecca, I guess 467 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 1: that I'm curious going forward what companies are doing to 468 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,720 Speaker 1: try to foster more of a culture of taking this 469 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 1: time off. I mean, has there been any discussion about 470 00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,239 Speaker 1: perhaps having flex time, not necessarily taking an all at 471 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,639 Speaker 1: the beginning in sort of a a three month chunk, 472 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 1: but basically bleeding it out over time, with being able 473 00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,119 Speaker 1: to take days to take the kid to the to 474 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 1: the doctor or fill in after the wife goes back 475 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 1: to work. Yeah, so a couple of things. Um. One 476 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 1: thing companies can do is just offer the same amount 477 00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,640 Speaker 1: of time to all parents, not have these tiered systems 478 00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 1: where some people get two weeks and some people get 479 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 1: sixteen weeks. And then there are also companies allowing for 480 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,439 Speaker 1: more flexibility so you don't have to take it all 481 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,240 Speaker 1: in the beginning. And like you said, you know, I 482 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:34,800 Speaker 1: think some people might think it's more helpful to have 483 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 1: their partner there later. Not right, Can I take flex 484 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 1: time with a twelve year old? So I go wait 485 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 1: in line at Glossier for four hours to get in? 486 00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,960 Speaker 1: Thank you, Max, the right answer. I need to switch 487 00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:50,159 Speaker 1: hears when we've got Rebecca with us in Max, we 488 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 1: we've got to switch user. Max. I need an update 489 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,119 Speaker 1: with you with all your Wall Street perspective on the 490 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:59,119 Speaker 1: future of Deutsche Bank New York. Oh boy, well, Deutsche 491 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 1: Bank just can't seem to get out of its own way. 492 00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,359 Speaker 1: I mean, what's the energy. I mean, Sally Baska and 493 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 1: you you're on the street, you're needy, buried in this, 494 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:07,639 Speaker 1: give me the future Deutsche Bank. And then I got 495 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:09,680 Speaker 1: a question for Rebecca Well. I gotta say, if you 496 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,119 Speaker 1: want to know what's going out of Deutche Bank, you 497 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,400 Speaker 1: talked to Shinali, not me. But let's just think about 498 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,159 Speaker 1: what bars you know? You come on, you know the 499 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 1: gossip Max Trouble. Yes, Tom Guineas tried to get me 500 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:24,480 Speaker 1: in trouble many times. I'll just say this. My friend 501 00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,280 Speaker 1: Kay Wiggins, one of my favorite Bloomberg colleagues in England, 502 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,200 Speaker 1: just reported in the last I mean this was like 503 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 1: literally yesterday. Every day it feels like there's something new 504 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 1: that seems like something from a showtime show happening. Deutsche 505 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 1: Bank apparently had these red flags that were going up 506 00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 1: about kickbacks, and Deutscha Bank was just doing nothing on Florida, 507 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,120 Speaker 1: doing nothing, but that they didn't worry. So I mean, 508 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,040 Speaker 1: I think that if you without getting in trouble honestly 509 00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 1: can answer is if you pull up Bloomberg News on 510 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,200 Speaker 1: any given morning, you'll find out some sort of like 511 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,240 Speaker 1: bone rattling, Rebecca, Rebecca, I gotta go to you just 512 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,120 Speaker 1: because the time I'm running out. Rebecc Greenfield, you bleed 513 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 1: the Atlantic. It is iconic magazine in America. What do 514 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,280 Speaker 1: you see in the magazine business right now? What's the 515 00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:13,080 Speaker 1: two thousand twenty of magazines in America? Of magazines? Um, 516 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,399 Speaker 1: I don't know that I'm I'm qualified to talk. You know, 517 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:19,440 Speaker 1: you did did the whole thing in digital in the 518 00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 1: Atlantic and all that. Yeah, I I uh, what is 519 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:26,080 Speaker 1: I think? Um? Everyone in trouble today. I know. I 520 00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:30,600 Speaker 1: think there's a big conversation right now happening about who 521 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,000 Speaker 1: should be writing magazine cover stories. Um, set off by 522 00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:36,440 Speaker 1: the editor in chief of The Atlantic, Jeff Goldberg. K 523 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 1: Um suggested that only there are more white male candidates 524 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 1: qualified to write magazine story. So I hope the future 525 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,680 Speaker 1: of magazines is a move away from that and more 526 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 1: experimentation and who writes what's very cool? Rebecca Greenfield very 527 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 1: good on journalism and her work there in Max Abelson 528 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:59,400 Speaker 1: on the Gossipel Wall Street Combined Today, Lisa Abramowitz, I 529 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:03,240 Speaker 1: love this line. Wall Street. Dad's find parentally easier to 530 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 1: get alright under it is, so who wrote this headline? 531 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:08,760 Speaker 1: To Max? Did you write this? I think we've got 532 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:13,040 Speaker 1: to give a shout out to Janet Paskin I editor, Lisa. 533 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 1: What do you think, Tom? I think it's great, you know, 534 00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 1: because you're putting everyone on the spot. What's your view 535 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:22,240 Speaker 1: in vlogs because you have you have you have a daughter. Yeah, 536 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not happy about it. Where this is 537 00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,800 Speaker 1: a massive debating home. I mean it's it's like massive. 538 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: We're like digitally diminishing at the Keen household, digitally diminishing 539 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 1: as best as we can. I feel like, what is this? 540 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 1: I feel like I'm on the view right now with 541 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:45,560 Speaker 1: Max back up. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 542 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 543 00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:55,320 Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom 544 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:59,320 Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide 545 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:00,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.