1 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:21,760 Speaker 1: The show goes on, or better said, in this case, 2 00:00:21,840 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: the show has been revived brand new episode of the 3 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: official show. I am Eli Susman, the founder of fish 4 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:33,199 Speaker 1: On First, when we provide you with complete Miami Marlins coverage, 5 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:36,839 Speaker 1: first time in nine plus months, that I'm bringing you 6 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 1: a true solo podcast breaking down all things Marlins. I'm 7 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:42,239 Speaker 1: at a place in my life where i can get 8 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 1: back to recording every single week. It'll usually take the 9 00:00:45,000 --> 00:00:47,160 Speaker 1: form of a solo pod like this, but also shows 10 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:51,239 Speaker 1: with other fof staffers with special guests that know all 11 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 1: about the Marlins or know all about baseball in general 12 00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 1: and can apply it to the Marlins. Going to just 13 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: continue adding on to the content we already provide across 14 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: fish On First all our various platforms. Thanks so much 15 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: to everybody for the support, and I couldn't be more excited, 16 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:08,839 Speaker 1: particularly at this time of year, right on the precipice 17 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:10,959 Speaker 1: of a lot of Marlin's news. And there's already been 18 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 1: some news that I'm going to react to on here 19 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:17,040 Speaker 1: as well as so intriguing rumors and as ofvely getting 20 00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:19,679 Speaker 1: to on this show somebody in particular that I'm really 21 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 1: fired up as a free agent possibility for this team 22 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,320 Speaker 1: at least somebody that I would have at the top 23 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: of my list, even if the team itself might not. 24 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: We're going to get into all that on this episode. 25 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: Equally excited to officially launch a brand new sponsorship that 26 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 1: presentsing sponsor of the Fish on first podcast moving forward 27 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: all episodes of the official show as well as the 28 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 1: rest of our programs. This podcast is brought to you 29 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: by jet Ski Rentals of South Florida. There's their beautiful 30 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: site for those of you watching on YouTube, offering Miami's 31 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 1: best jet ski and boat adventures. With six jet ski 32 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: locations in over one hundred and twenty boats, There's something 33 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: for every style and every budget. With Christmas and New 34 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: Year's around the corner, boats fill up fast. 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Again, 39 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 1: that is three oh five nine nine zero two one 40 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: nine two or online at SF jet ski Rentals dot com. 41 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: Thanks so much to George who runs that business, big 42 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: Marlins fan and the supporter of ours in the past, 43 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:41,079 Speaker 1: so excited to see that partnership flourish moving forward as 44 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 1: it relates specifically to our podcast channel and all of 45 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 1: our offerings over there. I want to get started off 46 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: first with the interview that Clinton McCullough gave to the 47 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: Hot Stove Show that that was coincidentally just relaunched this 48 00:02:56,880 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 1: week as well on the Miami Marlins podcast, spoke with 49 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 1: Steven Strom with Jack McMullen of Marlin's Radio first check 50 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 1: in with the manager in two plus months since the 51 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five Marlin season ended. I think a lot 52 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 1: of people are zeroing in on the same comments that 53 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 1: he made during the course of that conversation. When asked 54 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,799 Speaker 1: about players moving forward that could be used in different 55 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 1: roles moving forward compared to where they were this past season, 56 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:27,680 Speaker 1: he singled out he went out of his way to 57 00:03:28,200 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 1: name drop both Connor Norby and Griffin Conine. And we 58 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 1: have some related reporting from Barry Jackson to the Miami 59 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 1: Herald that gets into this as well. So I'm going 60 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: to dive into this before we get into the whole 61 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: reliever conversation that's gonna be the bulk of the show here. 62 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 1: Mccallus said, I'm gonna paraphrase him very closely right here, 63 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: that Norby and Conine potentially getting work in spring training 64 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 1: at new positions. Norby in the outfield, CO nine at 65 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 1: first base. Of course, this past season, Norby played exclusively 66 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: third base and CO nine played exclusively the corner outfield spots. 67 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: These would be brand new positions for both of them 68 00:04:09,440 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: for the first time in a very long time. A 69 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 1: quote from Clayton, the more optionality that a player can have, 70 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: it's beneficial for me, and these are players that did 71 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 1: not have that optionality this past season. Gang into Norby first. 72 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:27,200 Speaker 1: This one's pretty simple. Ever since the Marlins acquired him, 73 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 1: he has been position lists. He was a natural second 74 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: baseman when they acquired him from the Orioles in the 75 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: middle of twenty twenty four. As soon as he arrived, 76 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 1: the Marlins convert Norby to a third baseman, first a 77 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 1: trip la for a few weeks, then call him up 78 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: for the rest of the season, and he has played 79 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 1: exclusively third base ever since then. It has not gone well. 80 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: I don't even have to give you the stats. You 81 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: could look at the eye test and I think you 82 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: guys know the numbers. Both out's above average and defensive 83 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,840 Speaker 1: run saved are aligned on the fact that Norby is 84 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 1: struggling at third base. I would say in an embarrassing way, 85 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: there have been certainly flashes of competence over there. It's 86 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: not going to kill the team, but we have seen 87 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 1: not quite as simple as just isolating the defense from 88 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:14,919 Speaker 1: the rest of the game. It certainly felt like last 89 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 1: season that he was pressing, and that the struggles defensively 90 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 1: bled very clearly into the offensive side, where he was 91 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 1: a well below average hitter, where his plate discipline had 92 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,359 Speaker 1: not improved at all from the previous year, and the 93 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 1: power more concerningly, it was not there the way that 94 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 1: it kind of needs to be in order to keep 95 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,480 Speaker 1: that whole profile viable. So I think that is with 96 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 1: this in mind, that Norby would try something else, try 97 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 1: anything else, as long as for the foreseable future he's 98 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,039 Speaker 1: going to be blocked from playing his natural position at 99 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: second days because when he arrived, it was Otto Lopez 100 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 1: playing there at an extremely high level, and Xavier Edwards 101 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 1: has since made that made that move flipping with Otto, 102 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 1: and x is just as great at second base as 103 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 1: Otto was, and just significantly better fielder than Norby is. 104 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: So that position is blocked moving forward. They even internally 105 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,840 Speaker 1: they got a Javier Snoha Gold Glover, Javier Snoha who 106 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 1: plays second base at a very high level. So you 107 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:17,920 Speaker 1: can even look deeper into the pipeline and Norby's gonna 108 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 1: have to find another spot on the field. Ultimately, it's 109 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: going to come down to whether or not he hits 110 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 1: at a high level in order to keep this going. 111 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:28,680 Speaker 1: It's just at third base really was not sticking. There 112 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: wasn't much meaningful progress there compared to where he was 113 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. I actually just listened to an 114 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: interview with Norby on speaking to some one of his 115 00:06:39,680 --> 00:06:44,920 Speaker 1: former coaches at East Carolina University. Very interesting interview. At 116 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: the end, he alluded to the fact that he was 117 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 1: focusing on adding more speed to this offseason, that he 118 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: had noticed his sprint speed had dipped by half a 119 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: foot per second in twenty twenty five. He was still 120 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: a well above average runner, but I didn't. It's certainly 121 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 1: caught my eye how in twenty twenty four he was 122 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:05,560 Speaker 1: a borderline elite runner at least in short sprinting capacity. 123 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: And the way that that might translate to the outfield 124 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: actually does intrigue me. He's a little bit of experience there. 125 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 1: McCullough alluded to it on the conversation he had where 126 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: in the minor leagues at least he has some formal 127 00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 1: game experience. I have not crunched the tape on that 128 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: I will be doing so in the coming day. Is 129 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:26,400 Speaker 1: now that this has been thrown out into the public 130 00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: discourse to take a closer look. But my early impressions 131 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: is actually that I think that could be good for 132 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,440 Speaker 1: him that there's a higher ceiling for him as a 133 00:07:35,480 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: defender in the outfield, almost certainly the corner outfield spots. 134 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: And I think you could make it even more specific 135 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: that left field is most likely with him for Norby 136 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: that I could see him being easily an average left 137 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: fielder with enough reps and enough you know, just hard work. 138 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:56,640 Speaker 1: In general, I don't think he's going to be facing 139 00:07:56,640 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 1: some of the same obstacles that he did at third 140 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 1: base in terms of his hands, his fluidity, his reaction 141 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: time at third days wasn't quite there. So if he's 142 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 1: going to be now in a position where he could 143 00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 1: leverage his speed as opposed to trying to adjust his 144 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 1: reaction time, I think there's I think that's a more 145 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 1: viable path for him to be a solid defender. And again, 146 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: this is all going to come down to whether or 147 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: not he can hit, but at the same time, it 148 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: is connected in some way where if he is more 149 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: comfortable with how he's doing defensively, if he's not racking 150 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 1: his brain quite as much about beating himself up over 151 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 1: mistakes or trying to think about how to polish up 152 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:39,839 Speaker 1: that side of his game, then I think that will 153 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 1: free him up to be the best possible version of 154 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 1: himself in the batter's box. The Conine one is a 155 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: lot more brief we could get into. It's a weird 156 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: one to throw out there, because for anybody that is 157 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 1: familiar with Conine's game, not only is he a very 158 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: good defensive outfielder in parts of two seasons in the 159 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 1: big leagues, but his best asset defensively is his arm 160 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 1: in terms of both accuracy and arm strength. So if 161 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:05,840 Speaker 1: you put him at first Days, all of a sudden, 162 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 1: that arm is basically moot. There are very few scenarios 163 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 1: where he even gets to use your arm when you're 164 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: playing first Days. He's not particularly tall, so it's not 165 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:18,680 Speaker 1: like he has a big catch radius at first base. 166 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 1: He's about six foot one in a way that it's 167 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:26,839 Speaker 1: not that he I don't really see it, Like I 168 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: don't see a scenario where he's a better first baseman 169 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 1: than he is an outfielder. And he's a guy where 170 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:35,680 Speaker 1: when you just move him down the defensive special like that, 171 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: it puts more pressure on his bat. And if you 172 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 1: really dive into it with ConA and there's still a 173 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 1: lot to prove offensively. I know the numbers overall were 174 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: better from him in twenty twenty five than Norby, for example, 175 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 1: but there's still some question marks under the hood there 176 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 1: where it's it's awfully premature to put him in that 177 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 1: situation where he really needs to hit, where he definitely 178 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: needs to, he would have to show more game power 179 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 1: than he has to this point his big lead career. 180 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: We know the raw power that Conine has is plus 181 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 1: plus that is really enticing, but has only shown up 182 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:10,679 Speaker 1: a handful of times over the course of his big 183 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: league career to this point. To me, this feels more 184 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 1: like posturing in terms of what the Marlins are doing 185 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: as a whole. To let's not be naive. It's not 186 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 1: like McCullough is throwing all this out there to be 187 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:27,079 Speaker 1: totally transparent about what the team is doing, and also 188 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 1: just recognize that McCulla is not the one making personnel 189 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:33,839 Speaker 1: acquisitions over the course of this offseason. So for the moment, 190 00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: the Marlins have this big void at first base where 191 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 1: they could pencil in Wagman, Eric Wagman and somebody that 192 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: would take occasional let bats against left handed pitching as 193 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 1: currently constructed, and then it's just a big question mark 194 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 1: from there on out. And so this is more like 195 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 1: if spring training started today, Conine might have to take 196 00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 1: reps at first base just because they don't really have 197 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 1: any anybody else. I wrote recently about prospect Davison Dale 198 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: Los Santos, the progress that he has made where probably 199 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: their highest ceiling internal candidate, but the likelihood of him 200 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 1: making the opening day roster relatively low. The Marlins are 201 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: going to continuing to look for first basement. They're going 202 00:11:16,320 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 1: to try to acquire a first baseman over these next 203 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 1: couple of months, as they already have been. So this 204 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: is to me, this is pretty blatant posturing. In the meantime, 205 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 1: they want to make the rest of the baseball world 206 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 1: feel like they want to convince everybody else that they're 207 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: fine with what they have at first base. They don't 208 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:39,360 Speaker 1: want to be pressured by agents for free agent first basemen. 209 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 1: They don't want to be pressured by other teams that 210 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,079 Speaker 1: have first basement of trade into. They don't want to 211 00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:47,559 Speaker 1: be pushed into a corner because of this pretty blatant 212 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 1: need that they have. So they're going to take these 213 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 1: type of small steps to in the battle of the 214 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 1: court of public opinion. They kind of want to suggest 215 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:02,439 Speaker 1: that they have decent fallback plans already. They want to 216 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 1: take the heat off of off of themselves and make 217 00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 1: it not feel like such a requirement that they add 218 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 1: an established player that can also play first base from 219 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: outside the organization, and that they will inevitably have to 220 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 1: pay up a certain amount of money or prospect capital 221 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 1: in order to acquire that player. So, to me, that's 222 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 1: my read on it. I'm always going to give you 223 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 1: my take on these situations. Maybe the team will push 224 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,480 Speaker 1: back on that, but to me, I don't think that 225 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: particular idea about conin in at first base does not 226 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 1: pass the smell test to me, and it's not something 227 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 1: you should be overly concerned about. I think that just 228 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:42,200 Speaker 1: ties into where the team is and having avoid at 229 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 1: that position and therefore having to say in choosing to 230 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: they don't have to address it publicly they but McCulloch 231 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: had an opportunity to do so, you guys are well 232 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,000 Speaker 1: aware to this point. President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix 233 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 1: does not speak to the media unless he absolutely has to, 234 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 1: so he will be having to do so upcoming just 235 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 1: next week at the Winter Meetings. We'll get into that. 236 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 1: In the meantime, he sends out one of his one 237 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 1: of his employees to kind of put that thought into 238 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 1: the ether and see where it goes from there. But yeah, 239 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 1: that's my take on it. So good to have that 240 00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 1: interview there. Good to have the Hot Stove show back 241 00:13:22,440 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 1: on Marlin's radio. And that was an interesting twist that 242 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,439 Speaker 1: I was not planning for on this show but had 243 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 1: to comment on it for sure. I want to get 244 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: into the reliever stuff now because this is something that 245 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 1: was floated by the team before the off season even began. 246 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:44,480 Speaker 1: I remember on one of the final pregame shows of 247 00:13:44,520 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: the entire twenty twenty five regular season, it was Marlins 248 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 1: insider Craig Mish that was speaking about several notable veteran 249 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: relievers that we're going to be pending free agents that 250 00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 1: he speculated the Marlins might go after it might be 251 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 1: fits for the team. And to this point in the 252 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 1: off season were two months removed from the last regular 253 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: season games. We are more than a full month into 254 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:12,840 Speaker 1: the actual offseason itself, and yet the Marlins have not 255 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 1: signed any bullpen help, with the exception of a few 256 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: minor league deals for players that have no big league 257 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:23,440 Speaker 1: experience whatsoever. A couple of names from the very beginning 258 00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 1: of the process that were floated, Ryan Helsley, Devin Williams, 259 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: and Devin Williams is the one that subsequently fished on 260 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 1: first has reported on as a guy that the Marlins 261 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: were really into that they had circled throughout this process 262 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:41,160 Speaker 1: that they thought was a great fit for them. In 263 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 1: both these cases, Helsley and Williams bounce back candidates. Helsley 264 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 1: had a very unfortunate, high profile second half collapse and 265 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 1: it was really confined to about one calendar month once 266 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 1: he was traded with the Mets. That Hellsley was one 267 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 1: of the main characters and the reason why the Mets 268 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 1: collapsed late in the season and did not make the postseason. 269 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: Hellsley blew more than a few games because he was 270 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:10,280 Speaker 1: put in position high leveraged situations as the Mets' main 271 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 1: setup guy ahead of Edwin Diaz, and he pitched the 272 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 1: worst stretch of baseball of his career over the course 273 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:21,359 Speaker 1: of a lot of August until early September. Meanwhile, with Williams, 274 00:15:21,800 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 1: his struggles kind of were confined to the first two 275 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: thirds of the season, and a lot of that even 276 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:30,040 Speaker 1: came just in the first few weeks after he was 277 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: traded over from the Brewers to the Yankees. Williams was 278 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: one of the best relievers in all of baseball over 279 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: the previous five seasons, and that's not even debatable. He 280 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 1: was awesome, and he proceeds to have by far the 281 00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:45,640 Speaker 1: worst year of his career in terms of results, under 282 00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: the hood, still looked really very, very dominant, and by 283 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 1: the end of the season he was pitching very close 284 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 1: to his career norms over a relatively extended period of time. 285 00:15:57,000 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: So both of them are now officially off the market, 286 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 1: where Hellsley has signed with Baltimore Orioles two years, twenty 287 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:09,640 Speaker 1: eight million dollars with an opt out. Williams three years 288 00:16:09,800 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 1: fifty one million dollars with the Mets, and no opt 289 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 1: out in his case, there are some deferrals that make 290 00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 1: the present day value that of that a little bit 291 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 1: lower than fifty one million. In both these cases, guys 292 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:23,840 Speaker 1: getting a little bit more money than I had envisioned. 293 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 1: I'd rode specifically about Hellsley in my off season blueprints 294 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:32,680 Speaker 1: on fof projecting about twenty four million dollars guaranteed and 295 00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: as I noted, twenty eight million he ends up getting 296 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 1: still gets an opt out where he has that big 297 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:41,600 Speaker 1: bounce back year that I and many others were anticipating 298 00:16:41,640 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 1: that he could go back onto the market next offseason 299 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 1: and be near the very top of the list of 300 00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 1: available relievers. Whereas with Williams, that money a fifty one 301 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 1: million dollar guarantee. It is about as high as you'll 302 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 1: ever see for a picture coming off a high fours 303 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: ERA season. It's a specifically a reliever. There has never 304 00:17:02,160 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: been a reliever with an ERA in the high Forest 305 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:09,119 Speaker 1: that gets fifty one million dollars guaranteed the very next offseason. 306 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,920 Speaker 1: That being said, it's probably half as much guaranteed money 307 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:16,120 Speaker 1: as would have been projected for him. Entering twenty twenty five, 308 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,880 Speaker 1: if he had a typical year, he would be challenging 309 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:21,720 Speaker 1: for one hundred million dollars. He would be challenging for 310 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 1: the biggest reliever contract ever, And instead he still gets 311 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 1: an amazing payday. And with Mets, they are I really 312 00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:32,840 Speaker 1: like that deal for the Mets. I like it for 313 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,199 Speaker 1: both of these teams because Helsley is a guy in 314 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 1: particular where it's a relatively short term deal that and 315 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 1: then with Williams that that upside is immense. So in 316 00:17:44,800 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: both these cases, I think it's a tough luck for 317 00:17:47,080 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: the Marlins, particularly in the case of Williams with the 318 00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 1: fact that he's now in their division, so they're going 319 00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: to be facing him a little bit more so than 320 00:17:55,000 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: the average opposing team over these next few years. And Yeah, 321 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: but this case, it is leaves the Martlins with less 322 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: places to turn to when it comes to their bullpen. 323 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:08,720 Speaker 1: I should you clarify why they're in the bullpen market. 324 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 1: They didn't have a consistent closer last season was a 325 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: closer by committee, and it actually worked out pretty decently 326 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 1: all things considered. If you look at how often they 327 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: had the lead heading into the ninth inning and how 328 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:23,359 Speaker 1: often whoever had the ball that day was able to 329 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:28,520 Speaker 1: close it out. It worked okay overall, but the bullpen 330 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:34,919 Speaker 1: had some deficiencies. It was really lacking in overall with upside, 331 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: I think they were twenty seventh in all Baseball out 332 00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:42,119 Speaker 1: of thirty teams, and with ray from their relievers similarly 333 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 1: close to the bottom in strikeout rate. Overall, they need 334 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 1: more swing and miss. They really did not have many 335 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 1: guys to turn to to provide that, with the exception 336 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 1: of Ronnie Henriquez, a guy that just speaking about the 337 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:59,359 Speaker 1: importance of track record, Henrika's head very little major league 338 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:01,679 Speaker 1: track record. So Ever, prior to twenty twenty five, he 339 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:04,640 Speaker 1: was amazing. It was one of the handful of best 340 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,840 Speaker 1: reliever seasons in Marlin's recent memory. It was awesome, but 341 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: you really don't know what you're gonna get from him 342 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,040 Speaker 1: one year to the next. My general philosophy is I 343 00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:17,159 Speaker 1: don't trust relievers one year to the next, and I 344 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,639 Speaker 1: think both Helsley and Williams kind of attest to that, 345 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,280 Speaker 1: where they are a couple of the very best at 346 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 1: what they do, and yet they're coming off seasons where 347 00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 1: it was almost as much bad as good. When it 348 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:32,400 Speaker 1: came to late game situations for their particular teams, Where 349 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 1: did the Marlins turn from here? I put up a 350 00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 1: poll on fish on First just on Tuesday that you 351 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 1: can see here with this full screen where picking out 352 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 1: now removing Devin Williams from the equation and removing the 353 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,479 Speaker 1: top two relievers still in the market from the equation. 354 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:56,360 Speaker 1: Edwin Diaz is still out there, former met Robert Suarez 355 00:19:56,480 --> 00:20:00,159 Speaker 1: still out there, former padre, and I think, give in 356 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: the success that they had in their walk here and 357 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 1: given their longer track records, they're going to get even 358 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 1: more money than Williams. Will or I mean Edwin Diaz 359 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 1: is going to crush that number, and I think I 360 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 1: think Suarez as well is going to get just as much, 361 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 1: if not a little bit more. Those guys are going 362 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 1: to be out of the Marlins price range. And those 363 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,480 Speaker 1: are players that the Marlins, as far as I know, 364 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:24,919 Speaker 1: did not have not been seriously sniffing around for. They 365 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 1: kind of accepted that they're too pricey. So I put 366 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 1: out this pull about who I think are kind of 367 00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 1: the next four and really the only other four guys 368 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 1: that were primarily used as closures last season and are 369 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 1: still available on the market. It's Pete Fairbanks, Kyle Finnigan, 370 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:46,479 Speaker 1: Kenley Jansen, Amelia Pagan, Pete Fairbanks. We've reported at foif 371 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,159 Speaker 1: the Marlins are all over him, there are a lot 372 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 1: of teams that are on Pete Fairbanks since his club 373 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: option was declined by the Rays. And this is something 374 00:20:55,800 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 1: I've noticed in the past, where one somebody is publicly 375 00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 1: linked to this Marlins team, and especially if they're coming 376 00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 1: off a good year, the fans get excited. So I 377 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 1: ran this poll about who are our audience would once 378 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: from this tier of relievers, between Fairbanks, Finnegan, Jansen, and Pugan, 379 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,120 Speaker 1: all of whom spent a good portion of last year 380 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: as closers in some cases were almost exclusively closers last year. 381 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,679 Speaker 1: And with Fairbanks being the one that has had the 382 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: most smoke around him and the strongest connection to the Marlins, 383 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 1: he got about three quarters of the votes. I put 384 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,359 Speaker 1: up the poll results here before they were final. It 385 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: was evidently clear what direction the poll was trending in 386 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:45,199 Speaker 1: at the time, so I just stopped it there, with 387 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 1: Fairbanks getting about seventy five percent of the vote. Kenni 388 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 1: Lee Jansen got twelve percent. Finnegan seven and a half, 389 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: and there has since been more direct reporting from Barry 390 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 1: Jackson of the Miami Herald about Finnegan being on the 391 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: Marlins radar and finishing last among this group Amelio Pagan, 392 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 1: who was about six percent of the vote. So this 393 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,480 Speaker 1: kind of inspired this episode. As it turns out, it's 394 00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 1: only going to be a portion of this episode, so 395 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 1: the main focus. But I don't think you guys are 396 00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:21,399 Speaker 1: familiar enough with Amelio Pagan's game, respectfully, they based on 397 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,520 Speaker 1: the voting there. So I'm gonna make the case for 398 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,359 Speaker 1: what this guy brings to the table that yeah, he 399 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,760 Speaker 1: just might not be aware of evidently, just based on 400 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:35,399 Speaker 1: the results that were out there. Pagan the former Reds 401 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:39,880 Speaker 1: closer team that snuck into the postseason this past year, 402 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,520 Speaker 1: and diving into him, I think he is the guy 403 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,160 Speaker 1: that I would put top of my list if I'm 404 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,720 Speaker 1: the Marlins at this point in the offseason, as a 405 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,560 Speaker 1: combination of somebody that they could realistically afford, but somebody 406 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 1: still with great upside and I think a pretty decent 407 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 1: floor as well, coming off one of the better years 408 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 1: of his career, and I think it's largely sustainable as 409 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,840 Speaker 1: long as he's healthy. Which he has been for most 410 00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,200 Speaker 1: of his career. So let's dive in on Amelia Pugan 411 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 1: quite a bit the rest of this show, where I'm 412 00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,680 Speaker 1: gonna pull up his Baseball Savant page and you could 413 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 1: take a peek at his past three seasons. If you're 414 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 1: watching on YouTube. It was a two good ones sandwich 415 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,680 Speaker 1: with a forgettable one in between, and twenty twenty four. 416 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: For most of his career he's been healthy, with twenty 417 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 1: twenty four being the anomaly. This past year in particular, 418 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:34,159 Speaker 1: seventy games pitch, thirty two saves two eight eight ERA, 419 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,439 Speaker 1: and he had one of the highest strikeout rates of 420 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 1: his career, lots of red on his Baseball Savant page. 421 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: He was even more dominant in my opinion than the 422 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 1: results showed. But the results were pretty impressive to begin with. 423 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:54,199 Speaker 1: The fastball was good, the splitter was amazing. We're going 424 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: to dive into the splitter in just a few minutes 425 00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,920 Speaker 1: on the show. So, yeah, he was the closer in Cincinnati. 426 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,320 Speaker 1: You guys are well familiar with Great American Ballpark and 427 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:07,520 Speaker 1: the reputation it has for being hitter friendly. Yeah, one 428 00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: thing you know about Pagan off the top is he 429 00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 1: is a extreme fly ball pitcher gave up ten home 430 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,199 Speaker 1: runs this past year, which is a high total for 431 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:20,479 Speaker 1: a relief only pitcher within a single season, even if 432 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 1: it's somebody that had a pretty heavy workload during the 433 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:25,879 Speaker 1: course of that season. You know, the home rate was 434 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 1: pretty high, and pitching in Cincinnati contributed to that, no doubt. 435 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,439 Speaker 1: Ninety ninth percent tile and expected batting average allowed and 436 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,560 Speaker 1: the actual batting average allowed almost perfectly matched. That just 437 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 1: really tough to hit. In general. When he did get hit, 438 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,920 Speaker 1: it was getting barreled was a bit of a risk. 439 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,199 Speaker 1: It was thirty six percent tile in barrel rate, the 440 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,399 Speaker 1: lower meaning the more often that he was barreled, struck 441 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:54,479 Speaker 1: out thirty percent of batter's face. That is something that 442 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:56,480 Speaker 1: to me is near the top of the list in 443 00:24:56,560 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 1: terms of priorities. Just to very quickly bring up the 444 00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 1: names again of relievers in that tier, if you look 445 00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,320 Speaker 1: at Fairbanks, you look at Finnigan and Kenley Jansen, all 446 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,560 Speaker 1: those guys with lower strikeout rates this past season than 447 00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 1: Pagan had. Pegan is way above league average in that regard. 448 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,680 Speaker 1: To look specifically, eighty nine percent tiled in strikeout rate, 449 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 1: able to get strikeouts against both righty's and lefties. Something 450 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,439 Speaker 1: that you'll notice about Basically all these relievers of the 451 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 1: Marlins were in the mixed four that may still be 452 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 1: in the mixed four. All these players with closing experience 453 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,399 Speaker 1: are right handed, and the Marlins bullpen in particular was 454 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:39,159 Speaker 1: lacking in lefty options, which is why I kind of 455 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 1: understand why it's not a super easy This is not 456 00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: like a slam dunk fix in their price range, because 457 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 1: ideally they'd want more lefties, but in my opinion, that 458 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: gets a little overblown. Ultimately, you're just looking for guys 459 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: that can get out left handed batters, and there are 460 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,800 Speaker 1: elite right handed pitchers that can get out left handed 461 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:03,199 Speaker 1: back and to me, the way that Pegan did it 462 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: oh so well this past season and may be able 463 00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,560 Speaker 1: to do some moving forward is his splitter. And I 464 00:26:09,600 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 1: pull up this chart from Baseball Savant that I find fascinating. 465 00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:15,200 Speaker 1: So what makes his four seemer a very good pitch? 466 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 1: And from his previous screen you can see, i'll duck 467 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 1: out of the way that his for seemer sixty percent 468 00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 1: usage of that pitch, which is pretty high for a 469 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,639 Speaker 1: pitcher in any role, especially for reliever, that that is 470 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:31,399 Speaker 1: his primary pitch against both lefties and righty's. That for seamer, 471 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,640 Speaker 1: it's a mid nineties averaging ninety six mile per hour 472 00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:38,879 Speaker 1: ve low, So that is a seventy fifth percentile velocity, 473 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:44,159 Speaker 1: very good velocity, nothing super special, But it's the combination 474 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 1: of the v low, the extension that he gets down 475 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,920 Speaker 1: the mounds. He takes a huge stride close to seven 476 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 1: feet of extension in his delivery that gets him closer 477 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,320 Speaker 1: to the plate, and the spin rate on that fastball 478 00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:59,080 Speaker 1: that I'll pull up again has continually gotten higher throughout 479 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,400 Speaker 1: his career. This is a pitcher now thirty four years old, 480 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 1: turns thirty five in May, and yet the spin rate 481 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 1: on his fastball has never been higher. So that is 482 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 1: yet another characteristic of it that makes it the fastball 483 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 1: play up even more so than the raw velocity might suggest. 484 00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 1: And what has made the splitter particularly nasty this past 485 00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:24,280 Speaker 1: season is that he has made just a fascinating adjustment 486 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: to that pitch through the years. He's been throwing it 487 00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 1: since twenty twenty one, and the spin rate on his 488 00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:34,280 Speaker 1: splitter has consistently gotten lower and lower and lower, including 489 00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 1: a huge dive just from twenty twenty three to twenty 490 00:27:38,280 --> 00:27:41,399 Speaker 1: twenty four to twenty twenty five in spin rate. So 491 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,359 Speaker 1: what's fascinating to me is that the velocity on that 492 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,200 Speaker 1: pitch has remained exactly the same. I mentioned the four 493 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 1: seamer throws it at ninety six, throws the splitter at 494 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,640 Speaker 1: around eighty four. And yet though it must be changed 495 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 1: in the grip that he has or just the way 496 00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 1: that he is releasing it off of his fingers, that 497 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 1: the spin rate on that pitch has plummeted over these 498 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 1: past few years in order to change the shape and 499 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:12,000 Speaker 1: to dramatically improve the effectiveness of that splitter. This past season, 500 00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 1: the spin rate dropping below one thousand RPMs. To put 501 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:20,280 Speaker 1: them to perspective, the fastball spin rate over twenty six hundred, 502 00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 1: and his splitter spin rate nearly barely a third of that. 503 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,159 Speaker 1: It is just a fascinating pitch, one of the lowest 504 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:32,320 Speaker 1: spin rates on any splitter in baseball. And what that 505 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:35,120 Speaker 1: has done is it's given the pitch a lot more 506 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 1: vertical drop than it used to have, and it used 507 00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,520 Speaker 1: to be shaped in such a way that it had 508 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 1: plenty of It was tailing away horizontally quite a bit, 509 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,400 Speaker 1: but not a huge pitch in terms of vertical drop, 510 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,560 Speaker 1: and the adjustment that he's made to that pitch has 511 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 1: all of a sudden got into a spot where it 512 00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 1: drops below the zone totally, like very abruptly, just dips 513 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,080 Speaker 1: in a way that creates a lot of foolish swings, 514 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: particularly from left handed batters. Your off speed pitch in general, 515 00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 1: is what pitchers lean on when they're facing opposite handed 516 00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:16,080 Speaker 1: battery hitters of the opposite handedness in order to deceive them, 517 00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,440 Speaker 1: and it worked magically this past year. So he was 518 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,640 Speaker 1: good against righties overall, holding them to a one seventy 519 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:27,080 Speaker 1: five batting average a six forty nine OPS, and that 520 00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,800 Speaker 1: relative that strikeout rate that was close to thirty percent. 521 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 1: But against lefties and just over half of the batters 522 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:37,320 Speaker 1: he faced last year, we're lefties, one sixty one batting average, 523 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:42,400 Speaker 1: a five to seven OPS allowed to left handed batters 524 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,320 Speaker 1: last season, only three of those ten home runs were 525 00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:48,720 Speaker 1: given up to lefties, and his strikeout rate was a 526 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 1: lot higher against lefties than righties. He struck out right 527 00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 1: around a third of the left handed batters that he faced, 528 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,480 Speaker 1: a bunch of strikeouts, very little slug and just dominance 529 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,880 Speaker 1: all around with that pitch. So I came prepared with 530 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:05,600 Speaker 1: some highlights for our YouTube audience, so they Dodn'd like 531 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 1: to see a few examples of the splitter in action 532 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 1: against lefties at Great American Ballpark this past season, getting 533 00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 1: foolish swings out of the zone from Freddy Freeman there 534 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 1: and Kyle Stowers potential future teammate Kyle Stowers right there 535 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 1: as well. On pitch I was actually in the zone, 536 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 1: So primarily this is going to be a chase pitch 537 00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:30,520 Speaker 1: for him, where darts below the zone aloon and away 538 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,800 Speaker 1: in general. Occasionally it's just so nasty that he can 539 00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:37,760 Speaker 1: even dot it at the knees where batters are completely helpless, 540 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 1: because it can just drop right in there and they'll 541 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 1: still swing over the top just a little bit. This 542 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:48,080 Speaker 1: is a guy that frankly I had not doven in 543 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,520 Speaker 1: all that closely to at the start of the off season, 544 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,160 Speaker 1: but seeing this adjustment to his splitter for somebody that 545 00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:58,360 Speaker 1: to be clear. He has not been consistently good against 546 00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:03,920 Speaker 1: lefties throughout his career. Last season against lefties a two 547 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,760 Speaker 1: fifty nine batting average against a nine to seventy nine 548 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 1: ops against. He was terrible against lefties in twenty twenty four, 549 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:16,400 Speaker 1: and that ops nearly cut in half in twenty twenty five. 550 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:21,760 Speaker 1: So these samples overall are relatively tiny from one year 551 00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:25,040 Speaker 1: to the next for a reliever. That's true. I'm not 552 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:29,880 Speaker 1: gonna sugarcoat that and not going to say definitively that 553 00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,640 Speaker 1: Pagan has figured this out. However, he has made that 554 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,120 Speaker 1: tangible change to his pitch that I'll show again on here. 555 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,760 Speaker 1: The way that he has cut out the spin on 556 00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 1: that splitter has changed its shape. It's added a few 557 00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:46,800 Speaker 1: extra inches of vertical drop in a way that I 558 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 1: think has produced very tangible results for him. So I 559 00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,560 Speaker 1: think that could keep up moving forward as long as 560 00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 1: he's still thrown it the same way. It's hard for 561 00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,200 Speaker 1: this trend to continue. It's going to be hard to 562 00:31:58,240 --> 00:32:01,239 Speaker 1: take off even more spin when it is already one 563 00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:06,520 Speaker 1: of the lowest spin splitters in all of baseball. But still, 564 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 1: if he's able to just maintain that, then this is 565 00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 1: something that is sort of aging proof for a guy 566 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 1: that I think one of the main things that is 567 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 1: going to hold up his earning powers just his age. 568 00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,479 Speaker 1: The fact that he is heading into his age thirty 569 00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,959 Speaker 1: five season. Very rare that you see pitchers in their 570 00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 1: mid thirties get more than two years guaranteed on any deal, 571 00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:33,920 Speaker 1: especially if it's a reliever. And we brought up the 572 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,600 Speaker 1: Ryan Helsley before, a guy that I was zeroing in 573 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,320 Speaker 1: on entering the off season as an ideal Marlins target. 574 00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 1: Helsley gets two years twenty eight million. He was coming 575 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,480 Speaker 1: off a worse walk here, but being significantly younger, having 576 00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,280 Speaker 1: that much higher v low, and generally having a higher 577 00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 1: ceiling than Begone, it was unsurprising that he got a 578 00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:58,080 Speaker 1: good payday at fourteen million annual average value. I think 579 00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 1: that is even beyond the ceiling of Pugan. In the 580 00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,880 Speaker 1: case for the Marlins, I think they can confidently go 581 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:07,239 Speaker 1: in there saying two years is the max that's going 582 00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 1: to get guaranteed. And in terms of the actual money, 583 00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,440 Speaker 1: I don't see why it would exceed twenty five million 584 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:19,160 Speaker 1: total twelve and a half million annual average value. So 585 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,360 Speaker 1: and I'm of the camp where it's not my money, 586 00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:27,360 Speaker 1: and in my estimation, the Marlins have a lot of 587 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,200 Speaker 1: it to spend. They had the lowest pay roll in 588 00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:32,760 Speaker 1: baseball this past year. As currently constituted, they would have 589 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,160 Speaker 1: one of the very lowest payrolls in baseball in twenty 590 00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:39,200 Speaker 1: twenty six as well, pending outside editions. They have money 591 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,240 Speaker 1: to spend for a team that they actually expect to 592 00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,480 Speaker 1: compete in twenty twenty six, and this is just a 593 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:49,520 Speaker 1: pretty obvious place to spend it, in my opinion, where 594 00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:53,040 Speaker 1: just one guy that has a real lengthy track record 595 00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:57,480 Speaker 1: as a big league reliever. Last year should be clarified 596 00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:00,600 Speaker 1: that last year was kind of the most time that 597 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:03,000 Speaker 1: he's ever spent as closer in a single season, so 598 00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,880 Speaker 1: he doesn't have as much extensive closing experience as a 599 00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:09,280 Speaker 1: Pete Fairbanks. We certainly not as much as a Kenley 600 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 1: Jansen or even a Kyle Finnegan. Finnegan one that the 601 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,600 Speaker 1: Marlins have known interest in, and I don't know if 602 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,440 Speaker 1: they have interest in Pegan, but they should because I 603 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:20,840 Speaker 1: think the upside is higher than Finnegan. I think the 604 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:24,879 Speaker 1: upside is about as high as Fairbanks as well, if 605 00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 1: not a tiny bit. I know that Fairbanks has had 606 00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:29,719 Speaker 1: some awesome seasons in the past, but his strikeout rate 607 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:35,920 Speaker 1: has pretty steadily plummeted and he's uh like with Pagan, 608 00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,480 Speaker 1: I think if everything clicks that he's going to be 609 00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,200 Speaker 1: a slightly better pitcher for these next couple of years, 610 00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:43,920 Speaker 1: and I think it's gonna be comparable money to Fairbanks, 611 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,520 Speaker 1: maybe even a little bit less, just based on some 612 00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:48,160 Speaker 1: of the reporting out there. There was reporting for The 613 00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,880 Speaker 1: Athletic that Fairbanks might get a Hellsley type deal in 614 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,800 Speaker 1: that twenty eight million dollar range, and with Pegan, I 615 00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:58,480 Speaker 1: think it will be several million below that between twenty 616 00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,719 Speaker 1: and twenty five guarantee over these next two years. He's 617 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:03,840 Speaker 1: coming off a deal the previous two years where it 618 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:07,360 Speaker 1: was two years and sixteen million guaranteed. That would be 619 00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:10,200 Speaker 1: an absolute steal. I think he's going to earn a 620 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,000 Speaker 1: bit more this time around, but somewhere in that broad 621 00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 1: range upwards of sixteen but less than twenty eight. I 622 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,800 Speaker 1: would absolutely plug away at that. I trust him against 623 00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:23,880 Speaker 1: righty's and just as much against left He's given this 624 00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:28,120 Speaker 1: change and his splitter. For a guy that has extreme 625 00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,919 Speaker 1: flyball tendencies, coming to Miami pitching loan games home games 626 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:35,480 Speaker 1: at lone Deepot Park could really benefit him. I think 627 00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:38,239 Speaker 1: he would allow fewer homers. Pitching the exact same way 628 00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:41,440 Speaker 1: that he did in Cincinnati could yield even better results. 629 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,359 Speaker 1: He could be just as good as he ever has 630 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,359 Speaker 1: been in Miami over the next couple of years if 631 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,400 Speaker 1: they were to bring him in, So that guy is 632 00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:53,360 Speaker 1: his top of my list among the remaining candidates out there. 633 00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,320 Speaker 1: I'm not trying to sugarcoat it. Like going into this offseason, 634 00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,920 Speaker 1: I would have had Devin Williams as a higher priority, 635 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,200 Speaker 1: would have had Ryan Helsley as a higher priority. Those 636 00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,799 Speaker 1: guys are available no more. The Marlins these past couple 637 00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:08,240 Speaker 1: off seasons have had a tendency to wait and wait 638 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,600 Speaker 1: and wait and wait, trying to find bargains at the 639 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:13,879 Speaker 1: end of the off season, even though they have money 640 00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:16,720 Speaker 1: to spend, even though they have more incentive to upgrade 641 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,319 Speaker 1: their roster this time around. That doesn't mean that they're 642 00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,160 Speaker 1: going to change their nature unfortunately. Like I would not 643 00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:24,399 Speaker 1: feel surprised if we have to wait all the way 644 00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,440 Speaker 1: until the first week of February for the Marlins to 645 00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:33,560 Speaker 1: make their biggest moves, because they're even it even when 646 00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:38,000 Speaker 1: you don't need to be obsessed with efficiency, even when 647 00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:40,560 Speaker 1: you're not scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms 648 00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:44,520 Speaker 1: of available players. That is kind of part of their DNA. 649 00:36:44,719 --> 00:36:47,360 Speaker 1: That is who they've shown us to shown themselves to 650 00:36:47,480 --> 00:36:50,719 Speaker 1: be for the previous two off seasons during the Peter 651 00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:54,680 Speaker 1: Vendix era, so I think I think we got to 652 00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 1: be patient. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they actually step 653 00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,960 Speaker 1: up and make these moves imminently. During the winter meetings, 654 00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:06,480 Speaker 1: there was a report that I believe Finigan specifically, according 655 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:10,399 Speaker 1: to John Morosi of MLB Network, that it was either 656 00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:12,759 Speaker 1: Fairbanks or Finegan. One of the two is expected to 657 00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,840 Speaker 1: sign in the next week. I believe it was Fairbanks. 658 00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,719 Speaker 1: We'll see all that is posturing. There's there's no particular 659 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:25,440 Speaker 1: deadline for these guys to get signed, but I think 660 00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:28,160 Speaker 1: it is. It is important, in my opinion, that the 661 00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:31,520 Speaker 1: Marlins act and get somebody kind of of this general 662 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,640 Speaker 1: ILK and ensure that they have more experience in the 663 00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:37,759 Speaker 1: back end of their pen and bringing guys that have 664 00:37:38,080 --> 00:37:42,239 Speaker 1: pretty solid upside to go along with that. To wrap 665 00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,920 Speaker 1: up this show, I am experimenting with a brand new 666 00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 1: segment called Swim around the Diamond. Yeah, it's got its 667 00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:58,120 Speaker 1: own sound effects to go along with it, the premise 668 00:37:58,160 --> 00:38:02,600 Speaker 1: being picking out four pieces of recent Marlins related content 669 00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:06,320 Speaker 1: from outside of fish On First that I enjoyed checking 670 00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:09,680 Speaker 1: out that I want to recommend to you guys. Mayke 671 00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:14,840 Speaker 1: it clear that not all of the Marlins content universe 672 00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:18,640 Speaker 1: revolves around FOF. There's a lot more out there that 673 00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:22,600 Speaker 1: is worth highlighting. Picking out four different items, one representing 674 00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:25,279 Speaker 1: first base, second base, third base, and home plate, you 675 00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,359 Speaker 1: kind of get the ideal. See how long I'll stick 676 00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:31,040 Speaker 1: with it? Starting off with an updated ranking of the 677 00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:35,000 Speaker 1: top fifteen prospects in the Marlins organization from RM Laden 678 00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,640 Speaker 1: of Just Baseball, longtime buddy of mine, and somebody that 679 00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:41,160 Speaker 1: knows not only this farm system, but every MLB farm 680 00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,719 Speaker 1: system inside and out. So you go over there to 681 00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,239 Speaker 1: Just Baseball not just to see the way that he 682 00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:48,520 Speaker 1: ordered these players, but more so did see the updated 683 00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:52,799 Speaker 1: scouting reports, just a really eloquent and detailed way of 684 00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:57,239 Speaker 1: explaining of illustrating who these guys are as players, their 685 00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:03,080 Speaker 1: entire player profile, a realistic floor and ceiling possibility, what 686 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:06,439 Speaker 1: particular steps they need to take in order to get 687 00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,759 Speaker 1: closer to that best version of themselves. The top four 688 00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:13,000 Speaker 1: guys same top four that we have ranked on FOF 689 00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,279 Speaker 1: in the same exact order, but then there are some 690 00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:19,319 Speaker 1: interesting differences from five on down that I encourage you 691 00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:23,360 Speaker 1: to check out. With all these items in swim around 692 00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:26,040 Speaker 1: the diamonds. I am going to be linking them in 693 00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:29,960 Speaker 1: the podcast description, so wherever you're listening or watching this, 694 00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:32,719 Speaker 1: she'll be able to find those links to go directly there. 695 00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:37,680 Speaker 1: Starting with arms top fifteen Marls prospects. By the time 696 00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,840 Speaker 1: that you watch and listen to this pod, the ZIPS 697 00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:45,279 Speaker 1: projections should be out annual exercise from Dan Zimborski of 698 00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:50,800 Speaker 1: fangrasps kind of projecting the individual stats for every single 699 00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,640 Speaker 1: player on the Marlins and every other team. He goes 700 00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:57,960 Speaker 1: through the series with all thirty MLB teams, coming up 701 00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,560 Speaker 1: with an estimated wins above replacement for each player and 702 00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:06,000 Speaker 1: how they all align. This is of course, not accounting 703 00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:10,320 Speaker 1: for any potential offseason acquisitions or further departures using players 704 00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:13,920 Speaker 1: that are currently in the organization, and a couple of 705 00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,360 Speaker 1: surprises right off the bat, just based on the preview 706 00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,680 Speaker 1: image that he showed with Xavier Edwards having the highest 707 00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,960 Speaker 1: projected war out of any Marlins player in twenty twenty six, 708 00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:26,160 Speaker 1: that probably would not have been all that shocking if 709 00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:30,200 Speaker 1: it was the case entering twenty twenty five, because how 710 00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:35,160 Speaker 1: well he hit during his rookie season in twenty twenty four. 711 00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:40,160 Speaker 1: Given that showed quite a bit of promise in terms 712 00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,239 Speaker 1: of the overall value he could provide. He still quite 713 00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,000 Speaker 1: a step back offensively last season, even though he was 714 00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:48,520 Speaker 1: so good defensively. Nonetheless, they have him pegged for a 715 00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,839 Speaker 1: three and a half wins above replacement next year, which 716 00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,200 Speaker 1: would be a step forward from where he was in 717 00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:57,120 Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, as Otto Lopez in a very similar range, 718 00:40:57,120 --> 00:41:01,120 Speaker 1: about three point three war for this upcoming year, which 719 00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:03,920 Speaker 1: would also be a slight uptick for him. Has Sandy 720 00:41:03,960 --> 00:41:07,520 Speaker 1: al Contra as projected for the most value among Marlins pitchers. 721 00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,160 Speaker 1: This does account for the total volume of work, and 722 00:41:10,280 --> 00:41:14,160 Speaker 1: with Sandy, given how durable he generally is, that certainly 723 00:41:15,080 --> 00:41:18,279 Speaker 1: gives him a high floor in terms of what sort 724 00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:22,920 Speaker 1: of overall value you're projecting. Is Jacob Marcy rated as 725 00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:27,680 Speaker 1: an above average player moving into this upcoming season, etc. Etc. 726 00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:30,359 Speaker 1: So it accounts for Joe mack As being the primary 727 00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:35,160 Speaker 1: Marlins catcher and yeah, together the full breakdown, you can 728 00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:39,360 Speaker 1: check it out on Fangraphs, where Simborski publishes this stuff 729 00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:41,600 Speaker 1: every single year. So it's just fascinating to see the 730 00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:45,960 Speaker 1: way that his particular model projects years to goo on 731 00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,320 Speaker 1: both both the good stories and then the bad stories. 732 00:41:48,400 --> 00:41:51,480 Speaker 1: Maybe some guys that you'd be surprised how low he 733 00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:55,279 Speaker 1: is on what they're going to do. Moving forward to 734 00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:59,480 Speaker 1: third base. On this segment, I advise checking out this 735 00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:05,440 Speaker 1: series from Soloos Marlins where they made WBC inspired rosters 736 00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:11,880 Speaker 1: comprised entirely of former and current Marlins players, eight separate rosters, 737 00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:16,000 Speaker 1: so covering over one hundred players between those eight rosters, 738 00:42:16,200 --> 00:42:18,880 Speaker 1: including a couple where they combined multiple countries into a 739 00:42:18,920 --> 00:42:21,560 Speaker 1: single roster in cases where there weren't all that many 740 00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:26,960 Speaker 1: players to represent those countries. The final installation was on Venezuela, 741 00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:33,839 Speaker 1: but also includes a team USA, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Cuba, etc. Etc. 742 00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:38,279 Speaker 1: This was a really creative exercise and certainly reminded me 743 00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,640 Speaker 1: of some players that were not top of mind, that 744 00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:42,440 Speaker 1: had not thought of as Marlins or that I had 745 00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:46,600 Speaker 1: not associated with particular countries. Check that out on their side. 746 00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:49,200 Speaker 1: It was a really cool idea. And finally coming around 747 00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:53,400 Speaker 1: home in this segment, this reporting from The Athletic about 748 00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:59,080 Speaker 1: the Major League Baseball's Fan Council. Relatively new idea started 749 00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:03,760 Speaker 1: within this past year about a select number of fans 750 00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:10,120 Speaker 1: being given access to access and explanations to ideally to 751 00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,480 Speaker 1: be given some transparency in terms of what Major League 752 00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:15,920 Speaker 1: Baseball is actually doing. They had a private audience to 753 00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:22,840 Speaker 1: particular executives and former players about talking about where baseball 754 00:43:23,000 --> 00:43:25,400 Speaker 1: is the direction it's headed, trying to get their feedback 755 00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:29,239 Speaker 1: in order to make the sport as fan friendly as 756 00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:34,040 Speaker 1: possible moving forward. In this reporting from Evan Relics of 757 00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:37,560 Speaker 1: The Athletic, he spoke with I believe five different members 758 00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:41,440 Speaker 1: of the Fan Council, including Ryan Slessinger, who is a 759 00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:46,440 Speaker 1: longtime super sub of ours, just a really knowledgeable Marlins 760 00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:50,360 Speaker 1: fan in general, and I enjoyed seeing his quotes in 761 00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:53,800 Speaker 1: here as well as talking about what he learned and 762 00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:55,960 Speaker 1: what he's gained from being part of the council, what 763 00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:59,279 Speaker 1: he's hoping to get out of it moving forward, and 764 00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:02,080 Speaker 1: good to see that Ryan got this opportunity. I think 765 00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:05,600 Speaker 1: that's a very wise choice on Major League Baseball's front 766 00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:10,040 Speaker 1: in terms of somebody that I think represents a lot 767 00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:13,200 Speaker 1: of fans in general, not just Marlin's fan base, but 768 00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:16,840 Speaker 1: I think Ryan is a good representative overall of what 769 00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:21,200 Speaker 1: the modern fan is looking at and what they're prioritizing 770 00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:23,759 Speaker 1: so this is cool to read. Once again. I'll be 771 00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:28,239 Speaker 1: linking to all those articles in the description of this 772 00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:34,359 Speaker 1: podcast episode the debut of Swim around the Diamond. That's 773 00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,719 Speaker 1: going to do it here on the official show. Thank 774 00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:41,759 Speaker 1: you for sticking with me through this reboot of this 775 00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:44,279 Speaker 1: solo pod that I hadn't done in a while, that 776 00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:48,280 Speaker 1: was long overdue, and I'm not good at being concise. 777 00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,640 Speaker 1: There's a whole lot more that I could have discussed 778 00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:53,160 Speaker 1: on here and I didn't get to it, but I'm 779 00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,640 Speaker 1: showing some restraint. I can always bring it up again 780 00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:58,719 Speaker 1: in the future. Next week. Next week I'll have another show, 781 00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:00,680 Speaker 1: and then the week after that the schedule be shifting 782 00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:05,840 Speaker 1: a little bit, depending on trying to plan around expected 783 00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:10,800 Speaker 1: news items and key milestones going on. But in between episodes, 784 00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:12,799 Speaker 1: of course, we're gonna have everything covered for you on 785 00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:16,319 Speaker 1: fish On First. You know, we have some on the 786 00:45:16,360 --> 00:45:19,080 Speaker 1: ground reporting coming up this upcoming week in Orlando for 787 00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:21,520 Speaker 1: the Winter Meetings. Very much looking forward to that. So 788 00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:26,000 Speaker 1: whether that whether or not those meetings precipitate moves themselves 789 00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:28,319 Speaker 1: or just another series of rumors and quotes, et cetera, 790 00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:30,960 Speaker 1: We're gonna have it covered from all angles. And we 791 00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:34,800 Speaker 1: appreciate you sticking with us through all of that. Once again, 792 00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:38,520 Speaker 1: this show brought to you by jet Ski Rentals of 793 00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:44,200 Speaker 1: South Florida, brand new sponsorship with them for all of 794 00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:47,040 Speaker 1: our podcast content. Give them some support. There's so many 795 00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:49,719 Speaker 1: ways to support us as a whole at fish On. First, 796 00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:52,400 Speaker 1: the most easy thing to do is leave a like 797 00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:56,640 Speaker 1: on these videos, leave a five star review on Apple, Spotify, 798 00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,640 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. That's stuff you can do 799 00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:02,839 Speaker 1: for free and you can do immediately. But to ramp 800 00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:05,839 Speaker 1: up your support, we're still offering merch. We've still got 801 00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:08,719 Speaker 1: our merch partnership with About the Fans dot com. You 802 00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:12,200 Speaker 1: can use promo code fof ten at about the Fans 803 00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,480 Speaker 1: dot com to say ten percent off your order and 804 00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,560 Speaker 1: that's where you could get a hat. You get t shirts, stickers, 805 00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:22,640 Speaker 1: other apparel to rep our brands in public and treat 806 00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:27,520 Speaker 1: yourself to jet Ski and boat Rentals locally in South Florida. 807 00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:30,839 Speaker 1: There are out out of staters like myself that come 808 00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,920 Speaker 1: to town and have a great time with their business, 809 00:46:34,080 --> 00:46:37,680 Speaker 1: but they are they're with this podcast because they see 810 00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:41,520 Speaker 1: the value in South Florida natives themselves who want to 811 00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:45,000 Speaker 1: treat themselves to a good time coming up at the holidays, 812 00:46:45,040 --> 00:46:48,080 Speaker 1: but really any other point of the year. They make 813 00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:51,520 Speaker 1: it just a really easy process for you to have 814 00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:55,080 Speaker 1: one of the best times of your life without having 815 00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:56,839 Speaker 1: to go too far from home. So I hope you 816 00:46:56,880 --> 00:46:59,279 Speaker 1: take it up, take them up on their offer and 817 00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:02,799 Speaker 1: booked today by calling or going to their website. Once again, 818 00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:06,080 Speaker 1: I'm Eli Susman from Fish on First. This has been 819 00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:09,319 Speaker 1: the official show back, with another pod next week a 820 00:47:09,400 --> 00:47:12,480 Speaker 1: ton of coverage in between at fish on first dot 821 00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:14,840 Speaker 1: com and across all of our platforms. So thanks again 822 00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:38,480 Speaker 1: for the support and go fish