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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and Justice Clarence Thomas has chosen not

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Speaker 1: to recuse himself from another January sixth case. We have

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Speaker 1: the experts here, We have like people who really know

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Speaker 1: what the folks they're talking about. Slate Dahlia Lithwick gives

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Speaker 1: us the really the four to one one on Mtala,

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Speaker 1: the Supreme Court's hearing on what happens to pregnant women

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Speaker 1: in emergency, And let me just tell you this Supreme Court,

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Speaker 1: you can't even believe how much they suck except the

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Speaker 1: Liberals anyway. Then we have Semaphore's Dave Weigel about the

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Speaker 1: weird stuff that Republicans are trying to pull in the

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Speaker 1: state of Nebraska. But first we have the host of

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Speaker 1: the Think Like an Economists podcast, University of Michigan, Professor

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Speaker 1: Justin Wolfers. Welcome back to Fast Politics, Justin Wolfers.

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Speaker 2: Fast Politics and Fast Economics. Molly.

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Speaker 3: Full disclosure, you are not in the United States right now.

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Speaker 2: Full disclosure. The American election campaign is so much more

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Speaker 2: enjoyable from Australia.

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Speaker 3: Full disclosure. That is very annoying to me. You need

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Speaker 3: to have skin in the games. You're coming back souit right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Also, I'll tell you I'm up early at six

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Speaker 2: am to talk to your listeners. So that's my Schemeia, Molly, So.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about the American economy. Is it too good?

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Speaker 3: And how is that bad for Joe Biden?

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Speaker 2: Did I wake up at a parallel universe of like

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Speaker 2: the universe Bucks News? I love it?

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Speaker 3: Is it too good? How is that bad for Joe Biden?

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Speaker 2: Good? There's two things in the world, Molly. There's economic statistics,

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Speaker 2: which I think correspond to reality, and there's the vibe

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Speaker 2: and how people talk.

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Speaker 3: Oh, the vibes. Let's talk vibes.

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Speaker 2: Okay. The story of twenty twenty three. The most talked

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Speaker 2: about economic story in twenty twenty three was why is

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Speaker 2: the US economy about to fall into a recession? And

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Speaker 2: I did one hundred thousand interviews on that, and I said, no,

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Speaker 2: it's not. People said, why would you say otherwise? And

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Speaker 2: I said, because the economic statistics keep telling me the

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Speaker 2: economy is growing faster than it normally does, and unemployments

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Speaker 2: near a fifty year low, and inequality is falling and

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Speaker 2: wages are rising faster than prices, and people still looked

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Speaker 2: at me baffled, and they said, but it feels so bad.

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Speaker 2: There was a moment, though, I'm going to date it

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Speaker 2: for you December twenty twenty three, maybe December twenty eight,

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Speaker 2: get really precise, or I heard a crack, and that

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Speaker 2: crack was public opinions starting to turn around, and a

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Speaker 2: few people started to look out the window and notice

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Speaker 2: that they were better off than they were four years ago.

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Speaker 2: They started to respond to surveys that way, and that

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Speaker 2: led journalists to stop talking down the economy quite so

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Speaker 2: much and so look to vibeate perfect There is still

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Speaker 2: a lot of resentment about inflation. There are a lot

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Speaker 2: of issues I think being stoked by partisans, but I

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Speaker 2: get a sense that public opinion is starting to catch

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Speaker 2: up to economic reality.

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Speaker 3: Which is pretty fucking core.

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Speaker 1: All Right, Did the Inflation Reduction Act reduce inflation? Oh?

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Speaker 2: What a topsy to the upside down world we live in.

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Speaker 2: The Inflation Reduction Act should have been called something like

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Speaker 2: Infrastructure and Green Transition Act, right, I.

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Speaker 1: Mean, they just made shit up. But I respect the

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Speaker 1: hell out of it because it's like very kind of

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Speaker 1: Republican just to make it whatever you think it should

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Speaker 1: be called.

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Speaker 2: It really is a symbol of our times. The problem

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Speaker 2: that they faced was that Joe Manchin doesn't like all

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Speaker 2: the things that mainstream Democrats like, and Joe Manchin hates inflation.

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Speaker 2: They couldn't get any of this past without Joe Manchin.

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Speaker 2: In fact, they thought they'd get none of it passed.

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Speaker 2: And then Mansin essentially said, shave a few things off

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Speaker 2: the edges, you get rid of the things that I hate,

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Speaker 2: and form me into thinking it's about reducing inflation, and

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Speaker 2: I'll sign on. So there might be an official White

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Speaker 2: House answer that pretends that the Inflation Reduction Act reduced inflation,

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Speaker 2: but at the very least in the short run, it didn't.

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Speaker 2: There is actually a deeper debate. So the Inflation Reduction

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Speaker 2: Act put a lot more spending into the economy. Typically,

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Speaker 2: more spending leads to more demand, which leads to higher

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Speaker 2: prices and more inflation. There's a different perspective, which is

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Speaker 2: over the medium run, what matters is our capacity to produce.

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Speaker 2: If you boost supply, then we can make more stuff

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Speaker 2: without bottlenecks arising. And so you can think about the

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Speaker 2: infrastructure spending in particular as being about boosting the economy

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Speaker 2: productive capacity, which will allow this boom to continue a

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Speaker 2: lot longer. So the inflation reduction. I probably did nothing

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Speaker 2: to reduce inflation in the year which was past, but

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Speaker 2: maybe part of our longer term growth strategy that allows

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Speaker 2: this little engine that could to keep on chugging up

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Speaker 2: the hill and keep growing.

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Speaker 3: That's an interesting answer.

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Speaker 1: So explain to me how the American economy is better

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Speaker 1: than all the other economies.

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Speaker 2: Look, there's lots of ways in which it's worse. We

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Speaker 2: don't have much of a social safety net.

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Speaker 1: Oh oh yes, No, it's a terrible place to live

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Speaker 1: and we're all going to die.

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Speaker 3: But I mean, our economy is better than other people.

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Speaker 2: Well, Mollie, could I just take a sidebar?

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Speaker 3: Yes, yes, yes, I.

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Speaker 2: Believe firmly as an economist we should never talk about

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Speaker 2: the economy without understanding that it's what we're talking about

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Speaker 2: is people's lives. We can't say our lives suck, that

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Speaker 2: our economy is good. If our lives suck, our economy sucks. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Having said that, I think the question you meant to

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Speaker 2: ask is how is our econom me outperforming the others?

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Speaker 2: Right now? Yes, our economy bounced back from COVID further

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Speaker 2: and faster and more dynamically than other industrialized nations. While

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Speaker 2: we have inflation, and Republicans would have you believe it's

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden's inflation. Inflation is lower and has fallen faster

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Speaker 2: than in other industrialized countries. So somehow Joe Biden caused

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Speaker 2: worse inflation in other countries. If that Republican point were true,

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Speaker 2: the US is at or near a fifty year low

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Speaker 2: in unemployment, whereas some other European countries in particular are

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Speaker 2: slowing down. Now, I don't want to put too much

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Speaker 2: blame there. They've also had to deal with Putin and

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Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine to a much greater extent than

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Speaker 2: we have. But if you looked at International League tables

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Speaker 2: and you said which economy has done best since twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty one, has improved the most, you would say the

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Speaker 2: United States. Now that's a really hard political point for

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Speaker 2: the president to People are kind of angry, less angry,

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Speaker 2: I think, but somewhat angry. And you could say, well,

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Speaker 2: you think you're pissed. How do you think the Germans

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Speaker 2: or the Brits feel right now or the Canadians. It's

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Speaker 2: less bad here than elsewhere. It's a hard story to tell,

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Speaker 2: But why is that. Look, there's a really big difference

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Speaker 2: in this economy between what people say and what they do. So, yes,

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Speaker 2: you can turn on Fox News and hear about all

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Speaker 2: the terrible stories of people's lives. Or you could look

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Speaker 2: at public opinion polls which suggest they're not really convinced

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Speaker 2: that Biden is a better steward for the economy. Or

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Speaker 2: you could look at polls that suggest that they're somewhat

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Speaker 2: unhappy about the state of the economy. Or you could

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Speaker 2: look at what they do. If people were worried about

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Speaker 2: the future, they wouldn't be spending money. They'd be saving

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Speaker 2: for a rainy day. They're doing the opposite. If people

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Speaker 2: were worried about the economy, they wouldn't be switching jobs.

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Speaker 2: But they're switching jobs as if they believe that now

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Speaker 2: is a great time to go out and find opportunity.

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Speaker 2: And here's the thing I love, and it's the story

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Speaker 2: we haven't heard enough about, which is, if people were

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Speaker 2: worried about the economy, they wouldn't be starting new businesses

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Speaker 2: because they think that most businesses fail. But in fact,

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Speaker 2: we're in the midst of the greatest boom in new

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Speaker 2: business formation I've ever seen in the United States. People

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Speaker 2: are starting businesses at absolute record rates. In twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 2: we thought, well, maybe this is just a post pandemic boom,

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Speaker 2: And in twenty twenty two we told the same story,

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Speaker 2: and in twenty twenty three we started to believe this

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Speaker 2: might be real, and by twenty twenty four it seems

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Speaker 2: like it's absolutely an essential part of the story, which

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Speaker 2: is we're in an absolute boom of new businesses starting

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Speaker 2: new businesses, forming entrepreneurship, that people are optimistic about the

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Speaker 2: future and building their own new economy. So people smell

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Speaker 2: opportunity out there.

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Speaker 3: That's interesting and why why is.

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Speaker 2: A really hard question. If I knew the way, I'd

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Speaker 2: be one of those entrepreneurs out there starting a business boom.

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Speaker 2: But I think what it tells us is that people

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Speaker 2: feel this is a good environment for doing business. And

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Speaker 2: that's a really important point because you think about the

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Speaker 2: traditional Republican heartland. It's the folks who believe in small business,

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Speaker 2: who want people to be able to pull themselves up

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Speaker 2: by their bootstraps and so on. They've never done it

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Speaker 2: at greater rates than they're doing it right now. You

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Speaker 2: can't complain about the state of the economy on the

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Speaker 2: one hand and then start a new business the next

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Speaker 2: day on the other. It's a tremendous act of optimism

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Speaker 2: and faith.

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Speaker 3: It's a really good point and also so interesting.

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Speaker 1: Let's just talk for a second about kind of what

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Speaker 1: indicators are coming up now and where we are with

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Speaker 1: the United States economy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so the biggest recent news has been that inflation

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Speaker 2: has fallen dramatically from nine percent down to three percent,

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Speaker 2: and it got us all very excited that it would

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Speaker 2: just continue to magically drop, which has been a beautiful

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Speaker 2: thing to watch without needing a recession for that to occur.

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Speaker 2: And we got a little over our skis on that,

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Speaker 2: I'm afraid. And so we've had three readings in a

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Speaker 2: row which are consistent with inflation having fallen to what

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Speaker 2: i'd call nearly normal rates, the high twos or low threes,

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Speaker 2: so the sort of rates that you wouldn't really spend

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Speaker 2: too much time worrying about. But it hasn't kept falling

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Speaker 2: at the to all the way down to normal, which

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Speaker 2: is what we've been hoping for. That in turn has

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Speaker 2: led the Fed, which had previously promised or not promised,

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Speaker 2: indicated that it was on a path to cut interest

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Speaker 2: rates at least three times this year. They've sort of said,

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Speaker 2: whoa nellie, inflation's not falling fast enough. We're going to

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Speaker 2: keep interest rates a little higher for a little longer.

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Speaker 2: And that in turn has been the latest bout of pessimism.

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Speaker 2: Maybe interest rates are going to stay high. And this

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Speaker 2: is where you were right, Molly, to say that what's

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Speaker 2: happening there is the economy in some level is a

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Speaker 2: little too hot, at least for the Fed's comfort. That

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Speaker 2: we are getting so many people into job that it's

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Speaker 2: worried that may cause bottlenecks. So part of this is

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Speaker 2: saying that the actual stuff we do, that side of

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Speaker 2: things is getting better, perhaps so much better, so much faster,

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Speaker 2: that they're a little more worried about inflation. To your

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Speaker 2: listeners who are worried about all of this, I feel

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Speaker 2: your pain, but I just want to counsel patients. What

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Speaker 2: the Fed is saying is not that interest rates aren't

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Speaker 2: coming down, but they aren't coming down for a few

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Speaker 2: more months. So this is a relief delayed rather than

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Speaker 2: relief denied. The only person who this might really hurt

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Speaker 2: is Joe Biden, who was hoping to be able to

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Speaker 2: tell that story before the election.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that the rates are going to cop

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Speaker 1: before the election now?

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Speaker 3: Like in a September A.

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Speaker 2: There had been a lot of hope we'd be looking

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Speaker 2: at our first rate cut at the next FED meeting.

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Speaker 2: That now seems to be off the table, and so

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Speaker 2: that would move from three rate cuts to two this year.

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Speaker 2: And really, people are people know, people are going about

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Speaker 2: their lives, markets are on edge. If the inflation reading

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Speaker 2: starts to turn out a little better, it might turn

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Speaker 2: out we get that at least one rate cup before

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Speaker 2: the election. But if not, then the Fed faces this

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Speaker 2: very awkward dance, which is, yes, it'll want to cut

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Speaker 2: interest rates by late twenty twenty four, I think probably

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Speaker 2: no matter what. But will it want to sneak that

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Speaker 2: in before the election or after the election. It wants

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Speaker 2: to pretend that it's unaware of when election day is,

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Speaker 2: but it also wants to look like it's independent of

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Speaker 2: the White House, and often that means not doing anything

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Speaker 2: during an election campaign. And so I'm awfully glad I'm

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Speaker 2: not running the FED. In the weeks leading up to

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Speaker 2: the election.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I bet so.

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Speaker 1: Then let's talk though about some of the sort of

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Speaker 1: economic news that's happened with the Biden administration. That has

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Speaker 1: been good news about environmental spending and you know that

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Speaker 1: kind of grows like Chips, the manufacturing stuff.

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Speaker 3: I mean that has helped the American economy.

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Speaker 2: Right, Chips is two things. It's a short investment, which is,

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Speaker 2: we're going to give a bunch of money to try

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Speaker 2: and be a leader in certain new tech industries. And

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Speaker 2: when that money goes out the door, you've literally got

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Speaker 2: to build the factories. And so what's happening right now

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Speaker 2: is we're literally building the factories, and so construction, for instance,

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Speaker 2: in certain types of construction actually moving pretty strongly right now.

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Speaker 2: But that's not what the Chips actor is about. It's

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Speaker 2: really about you make a long term investment because you

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Speaker 2: want to be a leader, not for affecting the state

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Speaker 2: of the economy in mid twenty twenty four, but because

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Speaker 2: you want a layer foundation for growth over the ensuing decade.

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Speaker 2: And so it's something of an experiment. Can we boost

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Speaker 2: the industries we think of the industries of the future,

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Speaker 2: and will we succeed at being leaders as a result

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Speaker 2: of this big government investment. And that's a conversation I'm

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Speaker 2: delighted to have with you, Moali, But we're going to

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Speaker 2: have to have that one in twenty thirty four rather

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Speaker 2: than twenty twenty.

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Speaker 3: Four, right too soon to know how that works out.

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Speaker 2: I want to address a talking point. I bet a

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Speaker 2: lot of listeners hearing, and I just want to give

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Speaker 2: them the facts so that they can be the one

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Speaker 2: most informed ones around the water cool Two criticisms that

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Speaker 2: I hear most about the state of the economy. The

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Speaker 2: first is inflation is killing it. Well, inflation is back

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Speaker 2: down to nearly normal levels. And then people say, well,

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Speaker 2: priss are still high at the grocery store, and they

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Speaker 2: absolutely are. Although grocery store prices haven't been rising over

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Speaker 2: the past in the year, they'll say, yes, but the

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Speaker 2: price is still high. And that's when I remind you

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Speaker 2: that what matters is where wages are compared to prices. Right,

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Speaker 2: if wages go up ten percent and prices go up

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Speaker 2: ten percent, everyone comes out of even. In fact, over

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Speaker 2: the four years at last, the four years since the

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Speaker 2: pre pandemic, I think that's the best starting point. Prices

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Speaker 2: have gone up twenty percent. The pain is real, but

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Speaker 2: average wages have gone up twenty two percent, so wages

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Speaker 2: are actually pulled their head of prices, people's material standard

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Speaker 2: of living, what they can buy with their pay packet.

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Speaker 2: There's actually risen. Now you might say, oh, only two percent,

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Speaker 2: that's not much. Rising by two two percent over four

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Speaker 2: years is rising half a percent per year, which also

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Speaker 2: sounds like not much. But that's actually dramatically faster than

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Speaker 2: the average over the preceding four or five decades. So yes,

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Speaker 2: prices are rising, but wages are keeping up. Then let

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Speaker 2: me address the really untold story, which is lots of

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Speaker 2: people fear that all those gains are going to the rich.

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Speaker 2: And they've got every reason to fear that, because that's

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Speaker 2: been the story of the American economy every decade since

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Speaker 2: the nineteen seventies onward. The pie gets bigger, but the

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Speaker 2: slice of the rich gets bigger, so my slice ain't

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Speaker 2: getting bigger. The last four years or the last three

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Speaker 2: years has been the first time in my lifetime as

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Speaker 2: an economist in which that's turned around. This is the

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Speaker 2: first time for most of your listeners in their lifetimes

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Speaker 2: that wages at the bottom end, wages for working in

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Speaker 2: middle class Americans are rising faster than they are for

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Speaker 2: the rich, and so everything I just told you about

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Speaker 2: wages moving ahead of prices is doubly true for the

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Speaker 2: folks who need it. So this is and I can't

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Speaker 2: pinpoint why, but this is for the first time in

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Speaker 2: most of our lifetimes, the first time that wage gains

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Speaker 2: are going to those who need the most. That's a

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Speaker 2: really exciting story, but it's one I just haven't heard enough.

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Speaker 1: Of, and it is this idea that the middle class

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Speaker 1: is growing.

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Speaker 2: The middle class is growing because working class folks who

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Speaker 2: are earning enough money to join the middle class. Part

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Speaker 2: of this is the Great Resort after COVID that a

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Speaker 2: lot of people change jobs, and they moved out of

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Speaker 2: dead end jobs. They looked for opportunities and they found them.

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Speaker 2: And so a lot of the job growth has been

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Speaker 2: in higher quality, higher paying jobs. People aren't just getting

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Speaker 2: higher pay, they're also getting better conditions. I think a

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Speaker 2: lot of it remains to be seen. Economists are going

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Speaker 2: to spend decades figuring out the why. But you're right

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Speaker 2: to say we have the most pro labor president in memory.

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Speaker 2: But it's an economy where the wages of folks who

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Speaker 2: write newspaper headlines. Folks like me who were pine about

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Speaker 2: the economy, and folks like you who talk at Molly,

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Speaker 2: I assume that you're talking cocktail parties for a living?

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Speaker 2: Is that right?

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Speaker 3: Yes? Pretty much.

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Speaker 2: The economy for those folks hasn't delivered for the chattering classes, right.

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Speaker 2: You and I, I'm sure, are in the top quarter

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Speaker 2: of the income distribution. But for everyone else, it's growing

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Speaker 2: and really delivering at a much much faster rate. And

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Speaker 2: that may be part of why the chattering coming out

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Speaker 2: of the chattering classes isn't as optimistic as the reality

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Speaker 2: that people are seeing in their lives.

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Speaker 3: So interesting. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

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Speaker 1: Justin Wolfers can't wait for you to be back stateside

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Speaker 1: with us.

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Speaker 2: Always a joy, Molly.

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Speaker 1: Springs here and I bet you are trying to look fashionable,

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Speaker 1: So why not pick up some fashionable all new Fast

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Speaker 1: Politics merchandise. We just opened a news store with all

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Speaker 3: Get t shirts, hats, and top bags.

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Speaker 1: To grab some, head to fastpolitics dot com. Dahlia Leswick

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Speaker 1: is a senior editor at Slate and the author of

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Speaker 1: Lady Justice, Women, The Law and the Battle to Save America.

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Speaker 1: Welcome Back, too fast politics. My I want to say,

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Speaker 1: you might.

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Speaker 3: I don't know. You're everything to me, Dahlia.

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Speaker 4: And you are everything to me, but you make.

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Speaker 1: Me understand stuff, whereas I feel like I make things

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Speaker 1: more complicated. Let's do two minutes on the rage we

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Speaker 1: feel about m Dala, can we sure?

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Speaker 4: I mean, it was yesterday's rage, Mollie, and I've sort

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Speaker 4: of like it's integrated. It's like in every blood vessel

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Speaker 4: there's like m Tala rage. But we can do a

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Speaker 4: little quickie. I think the one thing I would say

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Speaker 4: about M Tala for folks who have not been really.

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Speaker 3: Clocking it, which a lot of people haven't, I think.

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Speaker 4: It's the most important case that nobody knows about. I

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Speaker 4: think that, you know, we expended so much energy on

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Speaker 4: that MiFi pristone case, and I know you and I

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Speaker 4: talked about it, and I think in a lot of ways,

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Speaker 4: a m Tala is a bigger deal abortion case. And

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Speaker 4: b I think everybody kind of missed it. Like I

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Speaker 4: don't know why it was a sleeper.

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Speaker 1: Case because they just put it in that they just

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Speaker 1: slip it by. You know, it's like EPA versus West Virginia.

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Speaker 1: This Supreme Court has done such a multitude of crazy things.

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Speaker 3: But what I think is interesting.

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Speaker 1: About that case, besides the fact that the three liberal

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Speaker 1: justices all were so angry, you could.

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Speaker 3: Hear it in their voices.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I listened to these arguments as much as possible.

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Speaker 1: I was surprised, like I could hear their voices shaking

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Speaker 1: at different times.

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Speaker 4: Let's do one quick minute on what the case is.

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Speaker 4: EMTALA stands for the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act,

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Speaker 4: and it is a nineteen eighty six statute that was

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Speaker 4: passed because people were dumping patients. Emergency rooms would get

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Speaker 4: patients in America, only in America, particularly women of color,

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Speaker 4: particularly poor women of color, often who were having pregnancy

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Speaker 4: related crises, and the ers were like nah and sending

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Speaker 4: them somewhere else, right. So m TALA essentially says that

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Speaker 4: any hospital that receives Medicare funds, and that means virtually

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Speaker 4: every hospital has to provide what's called stabilizing care to

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Speaker 4: a patient if their life or their health is at risk,

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Speaker 4: and if they can't do that, they have to provide

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Speaker 4: safe transport to a different hospital that can't. Am TALA

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Speaker 4: was essentially the way of saying, do not take people

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Speaker 4: who are dying in your er and say you can't

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Speaker 4: treat them.

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Speaker 1: Right, so leaving people to die is a no go

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Speaker 1: if you're a doctor, correct, which.

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Speaker 4: By the way, let's be super clear, Molly, doctors are

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Speaker 4: trained to do this. They are actually trained to not

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Speaker 4: let people die. And am TALA was a way of

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Speaker 4: saying we're going to make sure that you don't let

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Speaker 4: people die.

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Speaker 1: In itself, completely insane that it had to be said.

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Speaker 4: But yes, yes, it's in conflict with a bunch of laws,

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Speaker 4: in this case, an Idaho law that essentially says, no,

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Speaker 4: you don't have to provide stabilizing care if there's an

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Speaker 4: abortion involved, then there are often often abortions involved.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 4: People come with topic pregnancies, they come with rupturing organs

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Speaker 4: or membranes, they come you know, they're hemorrhaging, their septic,

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Speaker 4: they're bleeding out. So we don't have to wait till

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Speaker 4: the person is going to die, except Idaho has a

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Speaker 4: new abortion trigger law that says, yes, no abortions unless

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Speaker 4: that patient is imminently going to die in front of you.

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Speaker 4: And so there's a huge gap between the Idaho law

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Speaker 4: and MTALA. And there's a little thing called preemption doctrine

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Speaker 4: that says that if there's a federal law and of

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Speaker 4: state law and they are in conflict, the federal law

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Speaker 4: wins because otherwise right every state is doing its own thing.

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Speaker 4: This should have been an easy case, but as you said,

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Speaker 4: it was not an easy case because we heard just

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Speaker 4: a festival, a circus, a cornucopia of insanity from male

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Speaker 4: justices who are like chin stroking and being like, well,

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Speaker 4: I don't know about this. This seems to violate the

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Speaker 4: spending clause, this seems to violate their state's rights. And

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Speaker 4: the thing that you're saying, and this is really important,

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Speaker 4: is like women are dying, like they are dying. There

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Speaker 4: have been cases around the country. Idaho itself has had

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Speaker 4: two helicopter not one, not two, but six women to

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Speaker 4: other hospitals since this law went into effect, and the

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Speaker 4: female justices are pissed.

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Speaker 1: I've heard that number that six women were ha to

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Speaker 1: be helicoptered out of state. But it's important to realize,

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Speaker 1: like every minute they are in agonizing pain, closer to death,

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Speaker 1: they have to be helicopter right because their health.

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Speaker 3: Is so fragile.

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Speaker 1: They could just have the procedure in the hospital, except

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Speaker 1: this crazy law means they have to be helicoptered out

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Speaker 1: of state.

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Speaker 4: One other point, which is this crazy Idaho law says

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Speaker 4: that a physician who performs an abortion unless it is

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Speaker 4: quote necessary to prevent the death of the pregnant woman

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Speaker 4: faces two to five years in jail and loss of

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Speaker 4: her licensure. So this is no joke. This is these

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Speaker 4: doctors who, as I said, these er doctors. And we

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Speaker 4: had an amazing Derek Cass on my show last week

438
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 4: just explaining like, this is what we are trained to do,

439
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 4: this is what stabilizing care looks like. And to have

440
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,680
Speaker 4: to stand back because a bunch of hospital lawyers are

441
00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 4: going to come after your license and put you in

442
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 4: jail because you said, you know what, I actually think

443
00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 4: organ damage, like the permanent loss of your fritility is

444
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 4: enough for me to intervene, and the Idaho law says no.

445
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 4: And so I just think the zeitgeist that you and

446
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 4: I were feeling is not just like Katanji Brown Jackson,

447
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 4: who never lets herself get mad, just almost vibrating the

448
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 4: Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogger, who never gets rattled. Every single

449
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 4: one of these women, including Amy Cony Barrett in this case,

450
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:29,439
Speaker 4: who was just utterly horrified at the inhumanity that she

451
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 4: was hearing from her colleagues. Every single one of them

452
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,439
Speaker 4: was just like, women are dying. This is what it

453
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 4: looks like. There is an objective standard of care. Please

454
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 4: don't gaslight us and tell us that there's no daylight

455
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 4: between the Idaho law and the federal law. Because six

456
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 4: women were helicoptered out of Idaho, and so it was

457
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 4: just a horrifying, horrifying performance. And this is the last

458
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 4: thing I guess I would just say. Throughout the argument,

459
00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:00,439
Speaker 4: which went on for almost two hours, every doctor was

460
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 4: referenced as heat and the nurses were referenced as she

461
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:08,399
Speaker 4: and as my friend Caroline sent in a text today,

462
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 4: do these male justices believe that all dogs are boys

463
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 4: and all cats are girls?

464
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:17,040
Speaker 1: Probably yes is the answer, but yes. What I thought

465
00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: was amazing we heard was that we heard the three

466
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:24,880
Speaker 1: liberal justices who were all women, and then immediately Alito

467
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 1: was in there right like.

468
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 3: The first, you know, just right in there.

469
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 1: So that primed us that Idaho versus United States, I

470
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 1: feel like, really primed us for today because we all

471
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 1: knew having heard yesterday that Alito and Thomas were going

472
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 1: to give their guy a pass no matter what because

473
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 1: they watch enough Fox News, so their brains and again

474
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 1: we don't know if they watch Fox News, but whatever

475
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: has made their brains like this can only be Fox News.

476
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 3: So let's talk about the immunity case today.

477
00:25:56,520 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 4: Right, I mean, this is probably the single most important case,

478
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 4: I mean certainly of the term possibly of our lifetimes.

479
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:08,239
Speaker 4: And this is essentially the case that was you know,

480
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 4: Jack Smith's absolutely lean and winnable case that was being

481
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 4: brought in Judge Chuckkin Tanya Chuckkin's court in Washington, d C.

482
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 4: About Trump's efforts to set aside the twenty twenty election

483
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 4: and all the things he did, right, fake slates of

484
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 4: electors calling state legislators, lying to the head of the

485
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,719
Speaker 4: RNC and saying like, oh, you know, we've got ample fraud,

486
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,159
Speaker 4: so make sure you line up these fake electors. You know,

487
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 4: going to fire people at the Justice Department because they

488
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 4: weren't with him on this plan. All this stuff, open

489
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 4: and shutcase, very clean, and Trump comes to the court

490
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 4: with this claim of quote absolute immunity, just complete blanket

491
00:26:55,760 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 4: immunity from criminal prosecution. Ironically, the claim is unless you

492
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 4: impeached me, which you may recallturing the impeachment.

493
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 3: It was like, oh, seemed to remember you do.

494
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 4: This in the criminal process, not through impeachment. But here

495
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 4: we are, and so this should have been an easy case.

496
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 4: The DC Circuit Court handed down an incredibly tight across

497
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 4: ideological lines, like absolutely no to blanket immunity. Famously, everyone remembers.

498
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 4: One of the judges at that appeal said, are you

499
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 4: saying the President could like call on Seal Team six

500
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 4: to assassinate arrival And the answer was like, well, kind

501
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 4: of depends on the circumstances. The court was horrified, all

502
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:39,200
Speaker 4: three judges again all women. If you're just gonna make

503
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 4: the point about women, all three women saying like, this

504
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 4: is an absurd claim of absolute blanket immunity. Absolutely not.

505
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 4: The Supreme Court could have just given a summary affirments

506
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,159
Speaker 4: when that came down in February, the case would have

507
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 4: gone to trial last month, but no, the Supreme Court

508
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,880
Speaker 4: agreed to hear it and then docketed it for today,

509
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:02,160
Speaker 4: which is the very very last oral argument of the terms.

510
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 4: So they slow walked it and still had the case

511
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,919
Speaker 4: been decided quickly, even in the next couple of weeks,

512
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,480
Speaker 4: we might have still had that case in Judge Chutkins Court.

513
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 4: But as you say, Mollie, today was just another festival

514
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 4: of chin stroking questions about you know, rogue prosecutors going

515
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:24,640
Speaker 4: after poor confused presidents who made a mistake.

516
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,679
Speaker 1: I want to talk about justice. So, tomay Er, is

517
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:33,000
Speaker 1: it plausible that it's within his presidential right to create

518
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 1: a fraudulent state of electors?

519
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 3: The lawyers are sure.

520
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, he was pretty clear. This was John Sower,

521
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 4: who was Trump's attorney at the Appeals court as well,

522
00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 4: who said the scale team sixth thing. And yes, when

523
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 4: Sodomiora asked this morning, could Trump order someone to assassinate arrival, yes,

524
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 4: could he you know, order a coup? Yes? Depends on

525
00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 4: the circumstances, but yes, if you really want, I mean,

526
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 4: just depends on these circumstances. And again that kind of sneaky.

527
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,120
Speaker 4: You know, he could be impeached for it and removed.

528
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 4: And you know, this brought about the whole weight. But

529
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 4: what if he's not president anymore? Like, what if this

530
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 4: happens as it did in you know, the last weeks

531
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 4: of his presidency? And I guess I don't want to

532
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 4: put too fine a point on this, but we got

533
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 4: so bogged down in again Justices Gorsi, Justice Kavanaugh, Justice Alito,

534
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 4: just Chin stroking questions about you know deep state, you know,

535
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 4: bad actors in the Justice Department prosecuting with you know,

536
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 4: over zealous Sage statutes. And it literally turned into this

537
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 4: kind of crazy referendum of what would be worse for

538
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 4: America to have a president who was like a little

539
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 4: bit afraid because over zealous prosecutors would come after him

540
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 4: and there's a thousand layers of protection to make sure

541
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 4: that doesn't happen, or as just as Jackson said, you know,

542
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 4: basically operating a criminal enterprise the Oval.

543
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:07,719
Speaker 3: Office with impunity.

544
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 4: And I think we had at least four, maybe five

545
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 4: votes for the proposition that would be much worse for

546
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 4: poor old presidents to face mean prosecutors. So I think

547
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 4: at minimum I counted five, I think votes to kick

548
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 4: this back, to send it back to the district court

549
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 4: for more findings.

550
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 3: And which is a win for Trump.

551
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 4: Right, because if what we care about is the shot clock, right,

552
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 4: if we care about is getting this thing done before

553
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 4: the election, if this under any set of questions, whether

554
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 4: it's what is an official act or what does the

555
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 4: president's mental state have to be or any of the

556
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 4: arkhana that came up today. But any of that going

557
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,880
Speaker 4: back to the district court means this thing doesn't get

558
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 4: started until after the election. In other words, it's pointless.

559
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 4: And that was a win for Trump exactly.

560
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: And I feel like you and I who listened to them,

561
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,959
Speaker 1: oh oka is the day before, thought these guys are

562
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 1: going to just do the most partisan thing they can

563
00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: possibly do, because we had heard them for four hours

564
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: the day before just basically say that women should die

565
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 1: in order to protect their idea of.

566
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,959
Speaker 3: Fetal rights I mean an embryonic personhood.

567
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: I mean, it just was in my mind the idea

568
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 1: that they would do anything that wasn't just absolutely the

569
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 1: most partisan hackey thing.

570
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 3: I would have been shocked.

571
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 4: So here, I think, my friend is where you and

572
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 4: I slightly differ because I think I drank enough Scotis

573
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 4: kool aid. Right, this is my job. I've been like

574
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 4: right feeding at the trough of Scotis kool aid for

575
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 4: like almost twenty five years. And I made the error,

576
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 4: and I'd made it a year ago. I said, look,

577
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 4: there's two real Muga justices, and it's Thomas and Alito,

578
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 4: and we know how Thomas feels his wife was involved

579
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 4: in this thing and he should have recused. But I

580
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 4: just really can convinced myself that Justice Kavanaugh, Justice Barrett

581
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 4: certainly the chief Justice. I didn't know what to do

582
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 4: with Justice Gorsich, but I thought they would be like

583
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 4: sort of uninterested in the proposition of November being the

584
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 4: last free and fair elections we ever have.

585
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 3: Like I convinced myself.

586
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 4: I really thought they'd be like listen, I'm for crazy,

587
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 4: I'm for Fedzock, I'm for fetal personhood, like I'm for

588
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 4: dismantling the entire administrative state and putting guns in the

589
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 4: hands of all of those embryonic babies. Like I really

590
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 4: thought they're there. But are they there for like a

591
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 4: crazy lunatic making up fake election results and lying about

592
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 4: it and getting states on board and calling Georgia and saying,

593
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 4: I just need you to find me this many votes. No,

594
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 4: I thought that that was not true, and after today,

595
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,479
Speaker 4: it certainly feels to me. And to be clear, I

596
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 4: don't think there are five votes for the batshit blanket

597
00:32:58,240 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 4: immunity claims.

598
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 3: But the that.

599
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 1: Shit blanket immunity claim was to get here like they

600
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 1: did this because they knew that they could get to

601
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 1: a place where they got some immunity. They knew they

602
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 1: weren't going to be able to get badget The thing

603
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 1: I'm struck by when you talk about this is how

604
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 1: much the people I know who believe in the court.

605
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 1: I mean, because I think about George Conway, my friend

606
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 1: who may or may not be involved with having put

607
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 1: a lot of those people in the court. You know,

608
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 1: he was like, no, they won't do this, this is

609
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: too crazy or even justice letic. These people are like no,

610
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 1: because they believe in the sanctity of the court.

611
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,000
Speaker 3: But the problem is it's just a partisan institution.

612
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 4: Now I think it's partisan, and I think those of

613
00:33:42,000 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 4: us who were saying post dubs, oh okay, this is

614
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:48,160
Speaker 4: just like a maga court, Like this is just you know,

615
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 4: the most wellly conservative court probably in American history, but

616
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 4: certainly since before the New Deal. I think that we

617
00:33:55,800 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 4: thought it was partisan and yet would put democracy itself first.

618
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 4: And now I think this is like not even about partisanship, Molly,

619
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 4: this is about convincing themselves. And we had an argument

620
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 4: last week that was about you know, one of the

621
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 4: criminal charges that a whole bunch of the January sixth

622
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 4: insurrectionists have been charged under And you would have thought,

623
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 4: listening to that argument that the bulk of the justices

624
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 4: were fully on board with the like these were just

625
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 4: like hapless tourists who happened to, like, you know, pick

626
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 4: up a stake and a gun on their way into

627
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 4: the Capitol and they had no idea what they're doing.

628
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 4: So I think they have moved from kind of being conservative,

629
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:44,399
Speaker 4: like you say, Fedsock, George Conway. Conservatives. That's fine, That's

630
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 4: what I thought this was. I think they genuinely do

631
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 4: not think that Donald Trump was a threat to democracy

632
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 4: on January sixth, twenty twenty one, and clearly the bulk

633
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 4: of them do not think that he will be a

634
00:34:56,960 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 4: threat to democracy in November of twenty twenty before. And

635
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 4: I don't know what they're reading.

636
00:35:03,000 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, this was so helpful and important.

637
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 1: I hope you'll come back always. Dave Wigall is a

638
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:16,520
Speaker 1: reporter at Semaphore. Welcome back, Too Fast Politics.

639
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 3: Dave, it's good to be back. Thank you, so excited

640
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 3: to have you.

641
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 1: And there's just a lot of really interesting stuff that

642
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: one of the things you do is you like crisscross

643
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 1: the country and write about a lot of really interesting stuff.

644
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 1: So Dave talk to us about what's happening in Nebraska

645
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 1: and this electoral college drama.

646
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,879
Speaker 5: Yeah, so right now, Nebraska and may and both give

647
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 5: two electoral votes whoever wins the state one electoral vote

648
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 5: each for the winner of the congressional districts. And in

649
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:52,839
Speaker 5: twenty sixteen and twenty Donald Trump won the more conservative

650
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 5: district in Maine, the mo rural district, the one does

651
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 5: not on Portland. In twenty twenty and two thousand and eight,

652
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:02,800
Speaker 5: Democrats carried the second district of Nebraska, which has always

653
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 5: been centered Nomaha. Republicans have redrawn it a couple times

654
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:09,240
Speaker 5: to make it more conservative at bringing in other parts

655
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 5: of the state, splitting it up a little bit, but

656
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,919
Speaker 5: it's still just without getting into the entire modern history

657
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 5: of the Republican Party, it's full of the kind of

658
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 5: voters who would vote Repblican ten years ago but not now.

659
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 3: Country club Republicans.

660
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, and there's an effort under way by the state

661
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 5: Republican party, the governor a large number of senators. In

662
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 5: Nebraska is a single unicameral state legislature. When it's the

663
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 5: senator to change this and say, okay, we're going to

664
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:37,360
Speaker 5: go like the other forty eight states and just assign

665
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 5: the electors based on whoever wins Nebraska, which would mean effectively,

666
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 5: since Nebraska's not gone democratic and generations, that it just

667
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,359
Speaker 5: gives five electoral votes to Republicans. They're pretty explicit about that,

668
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 5: and it was Charlie Kirk of Turning Point USA, Turning

669
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:51,800
Speaker 5: Point of Action.

670
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,319
Speaker 3: They got this idea from Charlie Kirk.

671
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 5: Yeah, I've been describing it backwards because where we are

672
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 5: now is that Governor Jim Pillin needs to call a

673
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 5: special session to do this. He said he will call

674
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 5: a special session to deal with some other tax issues.

675
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 5: And this cause began right before the end of the term,

676
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 5: the legislative term. Charlie Kirk and his producers realized this

677
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,279
Speaker 5: was possible, you could get Republicans to change this law

678
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 5: in time for the election, and they just they built

679
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 5: very quickly and they have a big, good organizing capacity.

680
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 5: They built a operation to call the legislators, called the

681
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 5: state senators, tell them to do this, Call the state

682
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,720
Speaker 5: party chair who was on board. They had a rally

683
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 5: before the end of the session and for probably too

684
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 5: boring for podcast reasons.

685
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 2: That will get all of the funey was bad.

686
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 5: They couldn't get it done right before the end of

687
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,319
Speaker 5: the session. But the government can call this anytime he wants.

688
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 5: And the question is how much would he want to

689
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 5: call a session in Lincoln a lot of potential protesters

690
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:52,839
Speaker 5: nearby to change the change their electoral system to help

691
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 5: Donald drop.

692
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 2: That's what that's what he would do.

693
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:56,879
Speaker 3: Right, And do you think he's going to do it?

694
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 5: They're holding some of their cards closer now. He has

695
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 5: repeatedly said he wants to until they run out of time,

696
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,160
Speaker 5: and running down of time would be ended the summer

697
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 5: a little bit earlier. Bro, they have to do this

698
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 5: by July until the deadline runs out.

699
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 2: I'm not rolling it out.

700
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 5: I think they were surprised by how quickly Democrats countermobilized,

701
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 5: and they were surprised by the Republican reaction. Some Republicans,

702
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,760
Speaker 5: not many, but enough to block it said they didn't

703
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 5: like the way this process is being handled. So what

704
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 5: they need to do is work on this. Republican centers

705
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 5: he didn't want to cram this at the end of session,

706
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 5: say well, you want to cram this in the other session,

707
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 5: but you should be on board with doing a special

708
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 5: session to get this done.

709
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 3: They need it.

710
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 5: Just there are independently minded Republican state centers who say,

711
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 5: this seems a little much. Maybe we can do it

712
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 5: for a mixed cycle. And so I'd be very surprised,

713
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 5: given this momentum if Nebraska in twenty twenty eight does

714
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,799
Speaker 5: the electoral college split, given that that that area keeps

715
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 5: treading democratic for now, probably not, but I'm not rolling

716
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 5: it out. The organizers of this like that a lot

717
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 5: of the media has already said this isn't happening, we

718
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 5: move on to another.

719
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:05,399
Speaker 1: Story, right, because they feel like to sort of if

720
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:07,800
Speaker 1: the attention goes away, maybe they could do it quietly.

721
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 3: But if it's going to be I mean, that's something

722
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 3: I'm struck by.

723
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:12,720
Speaker 1: I'm wondering if you could talk about this a second,

724
00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 1: because one of the things we've seen again and again

725
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 1: is like there's been a sort of like pundit pooh

726
00:39:19,600 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 1: poohing of special elections.

727
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,000
Speaker 3: Well, it's a special election, it's low turnout.

728
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: But one of the things I'm struck by is that

729
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:31,280
Speaker 1: these elections people are actually paying attention.

730
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 3: Right, So the problem for the.

731
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 1: Republicans in Nebraska was that people were paying attention, and

732
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 1: part of the problem for Democrats in twenty sixteen was

733
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:45,480
Speaker 1: that people just assumed Hillary would win and so they

734
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 1: weren't paying attention. Do you think this theory sort of

735
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 1: holds water, that Democrats have a certain level of attention

736
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 1: and anxiety that were not. I mean, the Republicans are

737
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 1: trying to gin it up on that side, but I'm

738
00:39:57,600 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 1: not seeing it the same way.

739
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, and it's about how their coalition has changed. This

740
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 5: is conventional wisdom, but I agree with it that since

741
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:09,240
Speaker 5: twenty really fourteen, but Trump sped this up, more college

742
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:13,799
Speaker 5: educated professionals who used to vote Republican vote Democratic, and

743
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:17,000
Speaker 5: those voters always were the most likely to vote in elections.

744
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 5: This has been a problem for well, lots of people,

745
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 5: but for the left for a very long time. So

746
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:24,760
Speaker 5: much left wing organizing for generations has been about getting

747
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 5: the working class black voter, working class wive voter to say, no,

748
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 5: elections really matter and you should turn out. And that

749
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,640
Speaker 5: is not a problem that people have two very well

750
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 5: off college professors or bankers or whatever who live in

751
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 5: Winnetka or Fairfax who are doing fine and voted Republican

752
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:45,040
Speaker 5: for fiscal reasons. A lot of them have moved away

753
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,799
Speaker 5: from the party, and those voters, yes, they do turn out.

754
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:50,879
Speaker 5: This has been a problem for Republicans since Trump got

755
00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:53,839
Speaker 5: in office. It was not that surprising that they did

756
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 5: so well in special elections with Trumps president. It's been

757
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 5: more surprising to people that Joe Biden's president disapproval rating

758
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:01,800
Speaker 5: can be in the gutter and Democrats do great. This

759
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 5: is the last version this I covered was on Long Island. God,

760
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 5: I almost did the thing that you can't do.

761
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 3: Can they get very bad? They do not take that lightlight.

762
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:13,240
Speaker 5: Going on Long Island. Tom Swazi won this special election,

763
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 5: reclaimed the seat that George Stantos want and if you

764
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 5: look at the vote patterns there, that's a fairly affluent district.

765
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 5: They had good Democratic turnout in the Queen's section, but

766
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,640
Speaker 5: they had great Democratic turnout in the Nassau County section.

767
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 5: And that is some of those people used to be

768
00:41:26,760 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 5: Republicans and now that they used to vote every election,

769
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 5: they still vote in every election. That's what's happened to Democrats.

770
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 5: So this is why this is kind of a fight

771
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:36,839
Speaker 5: between Democrats. Simon Rosenberg is a sort of Democratic optimists

772
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:38,799
Speaker 5: on this who says the media is not paying enough

773
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 5: attention now while we do in special elections. A lot

774
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 5: of other people disagree and say, we're aware of this.

775
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 5: It is not bad for Democrats that they turn out

776
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 5: for special elections.

777
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 3: We just don't know if it trans lands.

778
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:51,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, And it even happened again this week in Pennsylvania

779
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 5: that there was a special election the same day as

780
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 5: the primary. Republicans won it, but their margin was about

781
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:59,800
Speaker 5: nine points smaller than it was in twenty twenty under Trump.

782
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 5: I didn't see many Democrats saying this means that Pennsylvania

783
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:03,960
Speaker 5: is a lot for us now. It just means that

784
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 5: more Democrats in northeat Pennsylvania just vote in every election now, right.

785
00:42:07,800 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 3: I think some of this is in a you can

786
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:11,800
Speaker 3: gauge enthusiasm, right.

787
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, you can. And that's one thing this has done

788
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 5: is quieted some of the idea that I was referring

789
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 5: to earlier that when Donald Trump left office, the resistance

790
00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 5: would die off. And I've seen a couple of stories

791
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,799
Speaker 5: over the years on this theme. Usually whatever happened to

792
00:42:26,800 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 5: the Women's March, which which is a reportable fact, just

793
00:42:30,080 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 5: that the group itself kind of shrugged because of things

794
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:36,080
Speaker 5: of the news, because of anti Semitism allegations. But whatever

795
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:38,920
Speaker 5: happened to these hacks, whatever happened to these rallies, YadA YadA,

796
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 5: people will ask that, and that public facing part just

797
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 5: became less important for let's call them resistance resistance voters,

798
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,759
Speaker 5: they just kept voting. You did not see a fall

799
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 5: off in donations or in voting patterns by that kind

800
00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:56,840
Speaker 5: of activated by Trump voter. You did see less protesting.

801
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:58,759
Speaker 5: I'm not trying to be a little let anything go any

802
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:00,880
Speaker 5: other right now, but for those voters less to protest,

803
00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 5: there was a different Trump outrage for them every day,

804
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,359
Speaker 5: and there's not a different Biden outreach every day. So

805
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 5: they're not out in the streets. They're just showing up

806
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:11,959
Speaker 5: at the schoolhouse or the church wherever the bowling place

807
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 5: is all the time, right.

808
00:43:13,400 --> 00:43:17,280
Speaker 1: I mean, Trump small dollar numbers have gone down about

809
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 1: I mean, the thing I read in the ft was

810
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 1: they were down about two hundred thousand from twenty fifteen

811
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 1: or twenty sixteen. But if you were to do the

812
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: math onlike the number of people have died of COVID,

813
00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:32,400
Speaker 1: you know we've lost a million people maybe more on COVID,

814
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 1: so you could see, like I mean, I have a

815
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 1: theory that there are ripples from like you know, if

816
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:39,719
Speaker 1: somebody died of COVID because they didn't get vaxed. I mean,

817
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 1: you could see them having slightly negative feelings about the

818
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 1: people who have told them not to get vaccinated. Who knows,

819
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 1: maybe they like him even more. But I saw reporting

820
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 1: that Biden's small dollar donation numbers have done really well.

821
00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 5: Now, yeah, people got activated. We all covered this. If

822
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 5: we were out in the trail, we would meet Democratic

823
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:01,480
Speaker 5: voters who wish there was some alternative to Biden that

824
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:04,239
Speaker 5: was running and not him. But once that stopped being

825
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,399
Speaker 5: the case, they came back to buy he didn't need

826
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 5: that much money to win the primary. Democratic small dollar

827
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 5: fundraising in general has been up. This is of a

828
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 5: piece what I was just saying that this didn't really

829
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 5: change after Trump left office. What happened in the past.

830
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 5: If you look at fundraising numbers for Democrats in twenty

831
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 5: fourteen when they lost the Senate, not putrid, but not good.

832
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 5: They just they were incumbent setters who struggled to raise money,

833
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 5: and they just have been in money ever since. They

834
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,120
Speaker 5: minted money in races they couldn't win, and companies serve

835
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 5: yet set of Democrats. They're breaking records every quarter for

836
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 5: how much has been raised in the state's history. And

837
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:37,799
Speaker 5: Jackie Rosen did this in Nevada. The sherif run does up,

838
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 5: so they're still giving to everything and they're still pretty

839
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 5: efficient in donating. Republicans not entirely so. Both parties have

840
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 5: big dotors five o'h one C three, secretcyt et cetera.

841
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 5: But Republicans have been relying a bit more. You've seen

842
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 5: that this a few times a cycle. Where a Democrat

843
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,279
Speaker 5: raises a ton of money, they make a ton of

844
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 5: ad AD reservations. One of Mitch McConnell's packs or the

845
00:44:57,520 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 5: House GOP pack will burst in with money from larger

846
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 5: donors and make their own reservations. But they're having to

847
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:08,520
Speaker 5: tap larger donors to compete with the Democratic support.

848
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 2: But Trump still a lot of it.

849
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:12,080
Speaker 5: Whose reporting this was might have might have been Teddy

850
00:45:12,080 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 5: Sleeper Puck. The Trump trial has been good for him

851
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:17,520
Speaker 5: raising money. If you are on the Trump or Republican

852
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 5: text list, which I am kind of by accident, but

853
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 5: it's a good reporting habit to be on it, you

854
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,280
Speaker 5: get texts all the time, a learning of things Trump

855
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 5: is doing around the trial, and people have been giving

856
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 5: money because they're angry, but that juice is not as

857
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,799
Speaker 5: reliable as was when he was indicted the first time.

858
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:36,799
Speaker 5: They were hoping Republicans that every time he was in

859
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 5: the news for this, you get the kind of fundraising

860
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 5: burst he got when he's indicted in April twenty twenty three,

861
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 5: and the returns had diminished a little bit. Whereas a Democrat,

862
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 5: they don't need a news hook in particular, they just

863
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 5: keep giving the candidates.

864
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 3: I want you to talk about that.

865
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:54,600
Speaker 1: A little more because I find myself often on television

866
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 1: panels where I am the person saying, you, guys, I

867
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:03,320
Speaker 1: don't think being a criminal defendant is helping him. And

868
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 1: there was so much like voodoo economics in the primary,

869
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 1: where people are like in the primary, he won because

870
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:14,239
Speaker 1: he was indicted, and I was like, no, he won

871
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:17,439
Speaker 1: because nobody, because there were fifteen other people running against him,

872
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:20,800
Speaker 1: and they were all running as like baby mimiographs of

873
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 1: the og Like I never understood the whole idea that

874
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:27,840
Speaker 1: somehow being indicted helped him. Maybe it helped him with

875
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:29,840
Speaker 1: the base, but I'm not even convinced. I mean, it

876
00:46:29,880 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 1: was more like DeSantis flamed out.

877
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, and that's their consensus. Everybody worked on these campaigns.

878
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 5: When they talk about it, just say there was no

879
00:46:37,680 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 5: way truly to compete with Trump getting indicted because our

880
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 5: base was furious about this. Very profiled, psychoanalyzed base at

881
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 5: this point of Republicans who believe that Trump is a

882
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 5: uniquely powerful, iconoclastic leader and that when he is in

883
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:57,399
Speaker 5: trouble it's because his enemies want to stop him. None

884
00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:00,799
Speaker 5: of them could cut through that message. But that the

885
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 5: Republican voter makes up about thirty five percent of the electorate,

886
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:08,399
Speaker 5: and outside outside that base, I actould say there are

887
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 5: independents who always a Reublican who grew with that. Most

888
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 5: people don't, and that's what happened. It could be very

889
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 5: tough in the heat of a primary to transition to

890
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 5: how the general electorate might think. I would say that

891
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:22,279
Speaker 5: Democratic primary voters are pretty good about that. This was

892
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:26,880
Speaker 5: a major factor in twenty twenty just Democrats were both

893
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:30,200
Speaker 5: promising progressive policies but also getting questions constantly in Iowa,

894
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 5: New Hampshire about how do you appeal to people who

895
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:35,680
Speaker 5: in the Midwest and win the general election, and that

896
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 5: wasn't really a question for Republicans. I don't want to

897
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:40,720
Speaker 5: just spin off all the reasons, but what I said, Plus,

898
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 5: Democrats really think when they lose elections, they lose elections.

899
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 5: They really thought they lost in twenty sixteen. They thought

900
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 5: they were screwed by things like the email being hacked constantly,

901
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 5: but they really thought they lost. They need to fix things.

902
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:56,239
Speaker 5: And Repulican voters think they didn't lose. And there's no

903
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 5: good reason to deny Donald Trump this nomination. So if

904
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 5: he's in trouble, they have to stay by him, because

905
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 5: I mean, I could quote, you can quote an any

906
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 5: number of Republicans. This is just turn on Fox or

907
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 5: Newsmax for an hour you'll hear this point date about

908
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 5: honderd times.

909
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 1: It is so amazing to me that that is like

910
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 1: the fundamental problem with trump Ism is that the man

911
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 1: was like, no, we won, so voters are like, we won,

912
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:22,760
Speaker 1: so we don't have to change, And like that inability

913
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 1: or belief that you don't need to change is ultimately

914
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 1: what could undermine the whole situation.

915
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:31,720
Speaker 5: Yes, and there wasn't that much of an attitude to change.

916
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:34,920
Speaker 5: I felt there a campaign that Mike Pence was the

917
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 5: only candidate trying to introduce new ideas into the race,

918
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:42,960
Speaker 5: specific policies, litmus tests, just the things that normally work

919
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:45,080
Speaker 5: in a primary, and he was the guy who proved

920
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 5: that didn't matter for them. For Democrats, I think a

921
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 5: lot of it did matter, But the electability question is

922
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 5: what has driven a lot of Democratic primaries recently, and

923
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 5: it just did. It doesn't for Republicans. So I don't

924
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:57,319
Speaker 5: want to get too far from the point of what's

925
00:48:57,320 --> 00:49:00,279
Speaker 5: happening with him in the court. But yeah, he's with

926
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,959
Speaker 5: a general electorate that never liked this stuff, that never

927
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:05,719
Speaker 5: agreed that he was only in trouble for these date Greece.

928
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:08,359
Speaker 5: This is an electorate that in many cases has been

929
00:49:08,400 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 5: aware of Donald Trump for a long time. And if

930
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 5: you were aware of Donald Trump in a nineteen ninety

931
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 5: seven and someone told you this guy sometimes takes things

932
00:49:17,080 --> 00:49:19,320
Speaker 5: too far and gets in trouble with the law, everyone

933
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 5: would agree with you. The idea that Donald Trump himself

934
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:25,920
Speaker 5: would not be under any legal scrutiny would not be

935
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:27,880
Speaker 5: in a courtroom if it wasn't for this. This is

936
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:32,800
Speaker 5: a guy who's settled all the time, risky deals and

937
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:34,680
Speaker 5: uses of the abuse of the legal system. So for

938
00:49:34,719 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 5: the average voter, the idea that he's only in trouble

939
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 5: because he's so powerful and threatening to the left, it's

940
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:42,719
Speaker 5: a little complicated, caid and convoluted might just make more

941
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 5: sense that he's Donald Trump and he does this kind

942
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:44,719
Speaker 5: of thing.

943
00:49:44,920 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 3: How do Republicans that you meet on the trail seam?

944
00:49:47,920 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 5: I talked to House members all the time too, and

945
00:49:50,560 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 5: I do find the same dynamic that every reporter will

946
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 5: tell you about that there are a lot of members

947
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 5: who will say one thing privately about how frustrating they

948
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:00,840
Speaker 5: find this, and that never say it public like that's true.

949
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 5: I've encountered that with Republican voters. This has really not

950
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:08,240
Speaker 5: changed since November twenty twenty, when I was in Georgia

951
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:12,759
Speaker 5: and asking Republican voters showing up for Trump or Cente

952
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:15,279
Speaker 5: Ralph events. I wasn't just asking if they thought the

953
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:17,919
Speaker 5: election was pair. I was asking do you think Trump

954
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,640
Speaker 5: will still be scorn in as president January? And I

955
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 5: remember beforting back to my desk and saying, I can't

956
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:27,520
Speaker 5: started to do Republican voters who sincerely think that Donald

957
00:50:27,520 --> 00:50:29,560
Speaker 5: Trump lost the election and will not be president again.

958
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 5: That's never changed, and polling has shown this. It's just

959
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 5: been frozen. One thing you'll see from the Steve Bannags

960
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:38,040
Speaker 5: of the world is they'll point to this polling and

961
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:41,280
Speaker 5: will claim that it's rising. It isn't when most independence

962
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:44,240
Speaker 5: in every Democrat doesn't think this way. But among Republican

963
00:50:44,320 --> 00:50:46,440
Speaker 5: voters that that's been the case was that the election

964
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 5: was stolen. The American people had never stopped wanting Trump back,

965
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:53,840
Speaker 5: and they have some ballast for this now in polling

966
00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:57,320
Speaker 5: that chose voters miss many things about the state of

967
00:50:57,360 --> 00:50:59,960
Speaker 5: the world when Trump was president and they won him back.

968
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 5: That has kind of been retconned into well, you see,

969
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 5: Americans felt this way the whole time. There's no way

970
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 5: that Joe Biden could have won the elect That's the

971
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:12,640
Speaker 5: universal SENTI almost universal. I mean I've only heard diversions

972
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 5: from that. When Nikki Haley was running and Republican voters

973
00:51:15,160 --> 00:51:17,600
Speaker 5: voted for Haley said no Trump lust, we really would

974
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:19,040
Speaker 5: somebody else being to nominate.

975
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 1: So insane, insane, insane, insane. Thank you, thank you, thank you, Oh.

976
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 5: Yes, thanks for having me.

977
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:34,720
Speaker 2: No moment. Jesse Cannon by junk Fast, You'll be shocked

978
00:51:34,719 --> 00:51:37,840
Speaker 2: to hear there's interesting developments in the Trump trial.

979
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:40,959
Speaker 1: One of the developments in the Trump trial is that

980
00:51:41,239 --> 00:51:45,800
Speaker 1: David Pecker, who is testifying right during the Thursday trial,

981
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:50,719
Speaker 1: is talking about why he decided not to cut the

982
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 1: check for Stormy Daniels. And it had been conventional wisdom

983
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 1: that Pecker didn't pay off Stormy Daniels. This is from

984
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 1: Lisa Rubin at MSMB, because he was angry that Trump

985
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 1: never reimbursed him. Packer testifies that it's actually not true.

986
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 1: Pecker backed out of negotiating the licensing agreement and repayment

987
00:52:09,239 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 1: scheme once she talked to the company's general counsel and

988
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 1: realized that it could be problematic legally, which is basically

989
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:20,439
Speaker 1: the entire theory of this case if you think about

990
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 1: it right, because this is campaign donations, illegal campaign donations.

991
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 1: And the implication here is that Packer pumped the brakes

992
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:34,319
Speaker 1: because he knew that this was not okay. And there

993
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:38,840
Speaker 1: we go, ladies and gentlemen, and there we are. That's

994
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:42,760
Speaker 1: it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday,

995
00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:45,880
Speaker 1: Wednesday and Friday to hear the best minds in politics

996
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 1: makes sense of all this chaos. If you enjoyed what

997
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 1: you've heard, Please send it to a friend and keep

998
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:54,840
Speaker 1: the conversation going. And again thanks for listening.