WEBVTT - A Global Virus Report Card 0:00:01.720 --> 0:00:06.720 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred 0:00:06.760 --> 0:00:10.920 and forty four since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:16.800 Today's main story. New Zealand's former Prime minister is heading 0:00:16.880 --> 0:00:19.760 up a report that will give the world a report 0:00:19.840 --> 0:00:25.599 card on the pandemic response, one finding. While some countries 0:00:25.880 --> 0:00:30.320 focused on flattening the curve, others decided the right approach 0:00:30.840 --> 0:00:35.800 was to stamp out the virus completely. But first, Here's 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:44.280 what happened in virus News today. President Donald Trump has 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:49.800 stayed silent as the u S coronavirus outbreak rageous. The 0:00:49.920 --> 0:00:54.080 leadership vacuum has left governors and health authorities on their 0:00:54.120 --> 0:01:00.720 own to grapple with record new cases and hospitalizations. Trump 0:01:00.760 --> 0:01:04.320 hasn't spoken publicly in a week, even though the virus 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:08.480 is setting records across the country. He'll receive a briefing 0:01:08.560 --> 0:01:13.000 on Friday about vaccine development, but has otherwise focused his 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:18.200 public comments on circulating debunked allegations of voter fraud and 0:01:18.240 --> 0:01:24.080 criticizing Fox News on Twitter. Experts say that the President 0:01:24.160 --> 0:01:28.200 could help by appealing directly to Americans to wear masks, 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:32.200 encouraging Republican governors to do more to slow the spread 0:01:32.720 --> 0:01:38.199 and publicly backing health officials. He could direct his staff 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:44.200 to jointly coordinate with President elect Joe Biden's transition team. Instead, 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:48.360 he has discouraged masks in social distancing and is blocking 0:01:48.400 --> 0:01:54.680 the start of Biden's transition while refusing to concede defeat. Meanwhile, 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:58.120 in England, new figures show that the rate of increase 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:02.600 of COVID nineteen infections was already slowing the week the 0:02:02.720 --> 0:02:06.960 nation entered a four week lockdown. The total rate of 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:11.000 infections was down slightly to one in eighty five in 0:02:11.040 --> 0:02:14.480 the week through November six. According to the Office for 0:02:14.600 --> 0:02:22.840 National Statistics, estimated new cases remained about fifty thousand per day. Finally, 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:27.359 Italy's government is likely to extend its region by region 0:02:27.440 --> 0:02:32.640 lockdown system through the entire winter. The Deputy Health Minister, 0:02:32.840 --> 0:02:37.160 Pierre Paolo Solari told Bloomberg Television. This could counter the 0:02:37.200 --> 0:02:48.880 spread of the coronavirus while protecting the economy. And Now 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:52.680 for today's main story, New Zealand is one of the 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:55.919 countries that has been most successful in crushing the spread 0:02:55.960 --> 0:03:00.600 of the coronavirus. Now, the World Health Organization has asked 0:03:00.800 --> 0:03:04.639 former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark to co chair 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:09.760 and independent panel evaluating the critical steps taken early in 0:03:09.800 --> 0:03:14.600 the pandemic. She spoke to Senior editor Jason Gale about 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:18.280 how different countries approached the virus spread and what they 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:25.160 did right and wrong. Helen Clark says there are a 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:28.040 lot of lessons to learn from how different countries responded 0:03:28.080 --> 0:03:31.920 to the pandemic. For starters, there's the US response. The 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:35.280 country was slow to react to the pandemic, even though 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:38.600 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention understood how serious 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:43.080 the situation was as early as January. From what I 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:48.240 can see, and also Bob Woodward's latest book Rages very 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:53.240 informative on the steps that CDC and other outreach in 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:58.920 the United States had to China. Was they were right 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:02.680 onto it from an early stage. But of course it's 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:04.680 one thing to be right on to it. It's then 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:08.400 to adopt a set of measures that will will deal 0:04:08.440 --> 0:04:12.840 with it now. One of the early points of contention, 0:04:12.920 --> 0:04:15.520 of course, is that the United States, New Zealand and 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:19.200 a range of other countries are rather quickly put on 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:23.479 travel bands from from China. The World Health Organization advice 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:26.880 countries against implementing them and the only days of the pandemic, 0:04:27.640 --> 0:04:31.520 but the advice was ignored and one four countries up 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:34.800 to travel off. These are restrictions, order closures, or some 0:04:34.880 --> 0:04:38.200 other way of stopping potentially infected people entering. In the 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:41.080 case of New Zealand, Ellen says, it was a prudent measure, 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:47.479 absolutely indispensable measure. As I recall Auckland as the national 0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:51.800 airport was accepting around nine international flights from China a day. 0:04:52.080 --> 0:04:54.920 What if we hadn't stopped them, I mean, it would 0:04:54.920 --> 0:05:00.360 have been a catastrophic. I'm totally supportive of cutting it off, 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:04.480 and I think there's no public health grounds for saying 0:05:04.640 --> 0:05:08.880 that they don't help. Helen says the recommendation against travel 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:14.560 restrictions is rooted in politics, not public health. It's all political. 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:21.160 It's all who not being in a position to require 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:28.640 that things were done, needing members state cooperation and not 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:38.000 wanting to sufficiently alienate a member states so that cooperates less. 0:05:38.040 --> 0:05:42.120 So that that's unfortunate, but as the evidence shows it doesn't. 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:44.440 Didn't stop a lot of countries, including my own, putting 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:48.080 on travel bands because it was the sensible thing to do. 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.839 The WHO also came under scrutiny for praising China for 0:05:54.880 --> 0:05:58.480 reporting the emergence of the virus, even while others criticize 0:05:58.480 --> 0:06:02.120 the country for a lack of trans barrency. Whistleblower doctors 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:04.839 there had raised alarm about the virus spread, and it 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:08.040 appeared the country could have been faster at sharing important 0:06:08.040 --> 0:06:12.520 information about the initial outbreak. Allen says, the organization was 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:16.760 in a tough spot politically. My observation would be that 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:22.159 the WHO is an international organization. You're in a position 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:26.960 where it's very difficult to criticize a member state, any 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:30.680 industry because you need the cooperation. You really have no 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:35.240 paws except to persuade people to come along. The International 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:38.480 Health Regulations set the rules on when and how outbreaks 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:41.920 need to be reported to the WHO. The regulations are 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:46.320 legally binding and enforced mostly by peer pressure. COVID, though, 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:49.320 has spurred discussions about whether they need to be toughened, 0:06:49.720 --> 0:06:54.640 as the regulations were after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in Ukraine. 0:06:55.520 --> 0:06:59.040 Is this at Chernobyl moment of the kind which led 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:04.320 to strengthen cars of access and enforcement for the International 0:07:04.279 --> 0:07:11.200 Atomic Energy Agency on issues of of nuclear materials. Should 0:07:11.240 --> 0:07:15.160 there be an international convention as such which places more 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:21.360 responsibilities or member states, would they agree to such expert responsibilities? 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:25.840 Would they then accept the powers and sanctions that came 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:30.400 with it. All that remains to be seen. How much 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:32.760 of a wake up called has this been for every 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:37.880 every country? But for now, the WHO is depending on cooperation, 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:40.200 and I think that explains a lot about the way 0:07:40.240 --> 0:07:44.080 it's behaved. The World Health Organization's decision making body wants 0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:48.400 to understand where any mistaps occurred, including within the organization, 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:51.160 and what lessons can be learned from the response to 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:53.480 the pandemic so that the world can be better prepared 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:57.400 next time. Helen and the former President of Liberia, Ellen 0:07:57.480 --> 0:08:02.000 Johnson Surley. We're appointed by w H Director General Gabrie 0:08:02.280 --> 0:08:06.040 Or in July to conduct their independent evaluation, which is 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:09.040 due next May. Helen says the panel will develop a 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:12.440 timeline of how the pandemic unfolded and review things like 0:08:12.600 --> 0:08:16.040 whether the WHO has the right mandate for pandemic preparedness 0:08:16.080 --> 0:08:20.720 and response and whether the Director General has the relevant authority. 0:08:20.800 --> 0:08:23.440 For instance, it took almost a week back in late 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:27.440 January for the WHO to get agreement from outside experts 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:30.680 on whether the new coronavirus constituted a so called public 0:08:30.720 --> 0:08:34.719 health emergency of international concern with a pandemic in a 0:08:34.800 --> 0:08:38.960 highly interconnected world six days of everything, lateness and reporting 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:43.240 and notifying, the virtual is everything. So I think there 0:08:43.280 --> 0:08:45.880 are issues in there that we need to look at 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:50.800 in the extent to which the Director General can call shots. 0:08:50.880 --> 0:08:56.160 As the world's leading global public health official, he should 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:59.280 not be constrained. He should be able to tell the 0:08:59.480 --> 0:09:02.520 truth to power and make a call based on his 0:09:02.640 --> 0:09:06.800 professional judgment and backed by the professionals of the organization. 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:10.959 A public health emergency of international concern is the w 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:15.360 chose most serious health warning, but it took until March 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:18.679 when COVID nineteen was declared a pandemic for a lot 0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:22.200 of people to pay attention. The word pandemic has typically 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:25.400 been applied in the context of influenza and has used 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:30.880 more to describe spread and severity. As we consider what 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:35.960 it could be done better, perhaps you need a sort 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:40.240 of gradient of decorations. At the moment, they have one tool, 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:42.840 and it is to the clear the public health emergency 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:46.240 of international concern. That's the highest level that they have, 0:09:46.559 --> 0:09:49.959 but that people don't sort of think horror when they 0:09:49.960 --> 0:09:54.520 hear that. And the word pandemic has no meaning in 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:57.680 the w h O lexicon at this time under the 0:09:57.679 --> 0:10:02.200 International Health regulations. But eventually Dr ted Ross used the 0:10:02.400 --> 0:10:05.480 term because he knew he had to do something more 0:10:05.559 --> 0:10:09.360 to shake up awareness. And of course once the pandemic 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:12.800 was used, well, it was almost pender motive and people 0:10:12.840 --> 0:10:17.160 said good grief. But the terminology matters and getting awareness, 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:19.800 so I think attention needs to be drawn to that, 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:29.840 Helen says. Another surprising takeaway is which country's responded best 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:32.679 to the virus early on. Just over a year ago, 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:36.320 a group of scientists ranked one d countries on how 0:10:36.360 --> 0:10:39.199 well equipped they were to respond to a pandemic. They 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:42.520 found no country was fully prepared for a major health emergency, 0:10:42.720 --> 0:10:45.360 but the United States and the United Kingdom were at 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:48.040 the top of the list, while New Zealand was ranked 0:10:49.600 --> 0:10:52.920 Heaven knows what factors were taken into account, but let 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:56.839 me make a couple of observations. One is that the 0:10:56.880 --> 0:11:01.800 countries which responded most effectively to that very early way 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:06.000 were those in in East and to some extent Southeast Asia, 0:11:06.040 --> 0:11:08.880 which had had experience of stars as a major threat 0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:12.920 Helen was Prime Minister of New Zealand when severe acute 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:16.120 respiratory syndrome spread around the world in two thousand and three, 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:18.880 and the truth is I can hardly remember anything about 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:21.480 it because it didn't really reach us. What I do 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:25.760 know the record shows is that what we did do 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:32.240 was past purpose ready legislation, epidemic response legislation which was 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:35.040 able to be dusted off by just sending a darn's 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:40.040 government and implemented. And we did, as a result, develop 0:11:40.120 --> 0:11:43.560 a pandemic plan but it was flu. Now what this 0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:47.920 experience shows is that your pandemic planning must be very flexible. 0:11:48.600 --> 0:11:50.960 And the real breakthrough, I think for the New Zealand 0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:53.720 government response was in early March when it threw out 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:57.080 the flu pandemic planning and said we're dealing with something 0:11:57.200 --> 0:12:01.800 completely different. This isn't about flattening hers. It's too dangerous 0:12:01.840 --> 0:12:04.079 for that. We are going to go for a stamping 0:12:04.080 --> 0:12:09.400 about strategy. The evaluation Helen's working on will give examples 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:12.240 of strategies that have been beneficial. In a sense, it 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:15.960 doesn't matter so much whether a country as democrated or 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:19.920 not in that respect. What matters is that people have 0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:23.720 trust in the authorities and what they're recommending, and will 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:26.760 say if that's going to beat it, that's good enough 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:29.800 for me. And in New Zealand that had been people 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:34.120 accepting quite extraordinary limits on their freedom of movement, which 0:12:34.840 --> 0:12:39.000 would never experienced before. But it paid off and today 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:43.800 we live a much more relaxed life than than sad 0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:47.360 they met people in many other countries do. New Zealand's 0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:49.840 Prime minister just seem to idn has earned praise for 0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.480 her handling of the pandemic. The country's had just over 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:59.240 cases of COVID nineteen in total. She's one of a 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:02.040 group of maman leaders who are center have been very 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:10.559 effective in that regard. Ungerla Merkel trained scientists, authoritative politics, society. 0:13:11.080 --> 0:13:14.360 People trust Unglea Merkel not to fall with them if 0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:18.960 she levels with them. They accept that. Very good performances 0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:23.640 by women leaders in nor Denmark, in Finland, in Iceland, 0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:27.880 in in Taiwan itself of course, and of course the 0:13:28.320 --> 0:13:33.120 fantastic examples of male leadership too. But we're leaders were 0:13:33.160 --> 0:13:37.840 prepared to engage the public, put all the facts on 0:13:37.880 --> 0:13:41.200 the table, be open about what they didn't know, because 0:13:41.320 --> 0:13:45.520 there's some things we don't know about the disease. I'd 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.880 say this is the best advice we have. This is 0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:51.120 the judge that we've made, This is what we're asking 0:13:51.160 --> 0:14:08.080 you to do, and people have gone along. That was 0:14:08.200 --> 0:14:11.160 Jason Gaile and that's it for our show today. For 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:14.080 coverage of the outbreak from one and twenty beers around 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:19.240 the world, visit bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if 0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:21.520 you like the show, please leave us a review and 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:25.800 a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:29.840 way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The 0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:34.400 Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Too for Foreheads, Jordan Gospure, 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:39.600 Magnus Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:44.560 reported by Jason Gail. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our 0:14:44.800 --> 0:14:49.040 editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is 0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:52.480 Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.