1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:06,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred 2 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:10,920 Speaker 1: and forty four since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 3 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:16,800 Speaker 1: Today's main story. New Zealand's former Prime minister is heading 4 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:19,760 Speaker 1: up a report that will give the world a report 5 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:25,599 Speaker 1: card on the pandemic response, one finding. While some countries 6 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: focused on flattening the curve, others decided the right approach 7 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: was to stamp out the virus completely. But first, Here's 8 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: what happened in virus News today. President Donald Trump has 9 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 1: stayed silent as the u S coronavirus outbreak rageous. The 10 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: leadership vacuum has left governors and health authorities on their 11 00:00:54,120 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: own to grapple with record new cases and hospitalizations. Trump 12 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 1: hasn't spoken publicly in a week, even though the virus 13 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: is setting records across the country. He'll receive a briefing 14 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: on Friday about vaccine development, but has otherwise focused his 15 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: public comments on circulating debunked allegations of voter fraud and 16 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: criticizing Fox News on Twitter. Experts say that the President 17 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 1: could help by appealing directly to Americans to wear masks, 18 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 1: encouraging Republican governors to do more to slow the spread 19 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:38,199 Speaker 1: and publicly backing health officials. He could direct his staff 20 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:44,200 Speaker 1: to jointly coordinate with President elect Joe Biden's transition team. Instead, 21 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 1: he has discouraged masks in social distancing and is blocking 22 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: the start of Biden's transition while refusing to concede defeat. Meanwhile, 23 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 1: in England, new figures show that the rate of increase 24 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 1: of COVID nineteen infections was already slowing the week the 25 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,960 Speaker 1: nation entered a four week lockdown. The total rate of 26 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: infections was down slightly to one in eighty five in 27 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 1: the week through November six. According to the Office for 28 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:22,840 Speaker 1: National Statistics, estimated new cases remained about fifty thousand per day. Finally, 29 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:27,359 Speaker 1: Italy's government is likely to extend its region by region 30 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 1: lockdown system through the entire winter. The Deputy Health Minister, 31 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 1: Pierre Paolo Solari told Bloomberg Television. This could counter the 32 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: spread of the coronavirus while protecting the economy. And Now 33 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: for today's main story, New Zealand is one of the 34 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,919 Speaker 1: countries that has been most successful in crushing the spread 35 00:02:55,960 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: of the coronavirus. Now, the World Health Organization has asked 36 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:04,639 Speaker 1: former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark to co chair 37 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: and independent panel evaluating the critical steps taken early in 38 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 1: the pandemic. She spoke to Senior editor Jason Gale about 39 00:03:14,639 --> 00:03:18,280 Speaker 1: how different countries approached the virus spread and what they 40 00:03:18,280 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 1: did right and wrong. Helen Clark says there are a 41 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: lot of lessons to learn from how different countries responded 42 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 1: to the pandemic. For starters, there's the US response. The 43 00:03:31,960 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 1: country was slow to react to the pandemic, even though 44 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention understood how serious 45 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: the situation was as early as January. From what I 46 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 1: can see, and also Bob Woodward's latest book Rages very 47 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: informative on the steps that CDC and other outreach in 48 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 1: the United States had to China. Was they were right 49 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 1: onto it from an early stage. But of course it's 50 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: one thing to be right on to it. It's then 51 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: to adopt a set of measures that will will deal 52 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 1: with it now. One of the early points of contention, 53 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 1: of course, is that the United States, New Zealand and 54 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 1: a range of other countries are rather quickly put on 55 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:23,479 Speaker 1: travel bands from from China. The World Health Organization advice 56 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: countries against implementing them and the only days of the pandemic, 57 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: but the advice was ignored and one four countries up 58 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: to travel off. These are restrictions, order closures, or some 59 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: other way of stopping potentially infected people entering. In the 60 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 1: case of New Zealand, Ellen says, it was a prudent measure, 61 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 1: absolutely indispensable measure. As I recall Auckland as the national 62 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 1: airport was accepting around nine international flights from China a day. 63 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: What if we hadn't stopped them, I mean, it would 64 00:04:54,920 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 1: have been a catastrophic. I'm totally supportive of cutting it off, 65 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 1: and I think there's no public health grounds for saying 66 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: that they don't help. Helen says the recommendation against travel 67 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: restrictions is rooted in politics, not public health. It's all political. 68 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 1: It's all who not being in a position to require 69 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: that things were done, needing members state cooperation and not 70 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 1: wanting to sufficiently alienate a member states so that cooperates less. 71 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: So that that's unfortunate, but as the evidence shows it doesn't. 72 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 1: Didn't stop a lot of countries, including my own, putting 73 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:48,080 Speaker 1: on travel bands because it was the sensible thing to do. 74 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:54,839 Speaker 1: The WHO also came under scrutiny for praising China for 75 00:05:54,880 --> 00:05:58,480 Speaker 1: reporting the emergence of the virus, even while others criticize 76 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 1: the country for a lack of trans barrency. Whistleblower doctors 77 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 1: there had raised alarm about the virus spread, and it 78 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: appeared the country could have been faster at sharing important 79 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 1: information about the initial outbreak. Allen says, the organization was 80 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: in a tough spot politically. My observation would be that 81 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 1: the WHO is an international organization. You're in a position 82 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 1: where it's very difficult to criticize a member state, any 83 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: industry because you need the cooperation. You really have no 84 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: paws except to persuade people to come along. The International 85 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 1: Health Regulations set the rules on when and how outbreaks 86 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 1: need to be reported to the WHO. The regulations are 87 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: legally binding and enforced mostly by peer pressure. COVID, though, 88 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 1: has spurred discussions about whether they need to be toughened, 89 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: as the regulations were after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in Ukraine. 90 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 1: Is this at Chernobyl moment of the kind which led 91 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 1: to strengthen cars of access and enforcement for the International 92 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 1: Atomic Energy Agency on issues of of nuclear materials. Should 93 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: there be an international convention as such which places more 94 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: responsibilities or member states, would they agree to such expert responsibilities? 95 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: Would they then accept the powers and sanctions that came 96 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: with it. All that remains to be seen. How much 97 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 1: of a wake up called has this been for every 98 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: every country? But for now, the WHO is depending on cooperation, 99 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 1: and I think that explains a lot about the way 100 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 1: it's behaved. The World Health Organization's decision making body wants 101 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 1: to understand where any mistaps occurred, including within the organization, 102 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: and what lessons can be learned from the response to 103 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 1: the pandemic so that the world can be better prepared 104 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: next time. Helen and the former President of Liberia, Ellen 105 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: Johnson Surley. We're appointed by w H Director General Gabrie 106 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: Or in July to conduct their independent evaluation, which is 107 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: due next May. Helen says the panel will develop a 108 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 1: timeline of how the pandemic unfolded and review things like 109 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: whether the WHO has the right mandate for pandemic preparedness 110 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 1: and response and whether the Director General has the relevant authority. 111 00:08:20,800 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 1: For instance, it took almost a week back in late 112 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 1: January for the WHO to get agreement from outside experts 113 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 1: on whether the new coronavirus constituted a so called public 114 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:34,719 Speaker 1: health emergency of international concern with a pandemic in a 115 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 1: highly interconnected world six days of everything, lateness and reporting 116 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: and notifying, the virtual is everything. So I think there 117 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:45,880 Speaker 1: are issues in there that we need to look at 118 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:50,800 Speaker 1: in the extent to which the Director General can call shots. 119 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: As the world's leading global public health official, he should 120 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: not be constrained. He should be able to tell the 121 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 1: truth to power and make a call based on his 122 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,800 Speaker 1: professional judgment and backed by the professionals of the organization. 123 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,959 Speaker 1: A public health emergency of international concern is the w 124 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 1: chose most serious health warning, but it took until March 125 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 1: when COVID nineteen was declared a pandemic for a lot 126 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:22,200 Speaker 1: of people to pay attention. The word pandemic has typically 127 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 1: been applied in the context of influenza and has used 128 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:30,880 Speaker 1: more to describe spread and severity. As we consider what 129 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:35,960 Speaker 1: it could be done better, perhaps you need a sort 130 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:40,240 Speaker 1: of gradient of decorations. At the moment, they have one tool, 131 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:42,840 Speaker 1: and it is to the clear the public health emergency 132 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: of international concern. That's the highest level that they have, 133 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:49,959 Speaker 1: but that people don't sort of think horror when they 134 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: hear that. And the word pandemic has no meaning in 135 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,680 Speaker 1: the w h O lexicon at this time under the 136 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:02,200 Speaker 1: International Health regulations. But eventually Dr ted Ross used the 137 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,480 Speaker 1: term because he knew he had to do something more 138 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 1: to shake up awareness. And of course once the pandemic 139 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: was used, well, it was almost pender motive and people 140 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 1: said good grief. But the terminology matters and getting awareness, 141 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 1: so I think attention needs to be drawn to that, 142 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 1: Helen says. Another surprising takeaway is which country's responded best 143 00:10:29,840 --> 00:10:32,679 Speaker 1: to the virus early on. Just over a year ago, 144 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: a group of scientists ranked one d countries on how 145 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:39,199 Speaker 1: well equipped they were to respond to a pandemic. They 146 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 1: found no country was fully prepared for a major health emergency, 147 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: but the United States and the United Kingdom were at 148 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: the top of the list, while New Zealand was ranked 149 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 1: Heaven knows what factors were taken into account, but let 150 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:56,839 Speaker 1: me make a couple of observations. One is that the 151 00:10:56,880 --> 00:11:01,800 Speaker 1: countries which responded most effectively to that very early way 152 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 1: were those in in East and to some extent Southeast Asia, 153 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 1: which had had experience of stars as a major threat 154 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 1: Helen was Prime Minister of New Zealand when severe acute 155 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 1: respiratory syndrome spread around the world in two thousand and three, 156 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:18,880 Speaker 1: and the truth is I can hardly remember anything about 157 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,480 Speaker 1: it because it didn't really reach us. What I do 158 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:25,760 Speaker 1: know the record shows is that what we did do 159 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 1: was past purpose ready legislation, epidemic response legislation which was 160 00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: able to be dusted off by just sending a darn's 161 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:40,040 Speaker 1: government and implemented. And we did, as a result, develop 162 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 1: a pandemic plan but it was flu. Now what this 163 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: experience shows is that your pandemic planning must be very flexible. 164 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 1: And the real breakthrough, I think for the New Zealand 165 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 1: government response was in early March when it threw out 166 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,080 Speaker 1: the flu pandemic planning and said we're dealing with something 167 00:11:57,200 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 1: completely different. This isn't about flattening hers. It's too dangerous 168 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,079 Speaker 1: for that. We are going to go for a stamping 169 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 1: about strategy. The evaluation Helen's working on will give examples 170 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: of strategies that have been beneficial. In a sense, it 171 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 1: doesn't matter so much whether a country as democrated or 172 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 1: not in that respect. What matters is that people have 173 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 1: trust in the authorities and what they're recommending, and will 174 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: say if that's going to beat it, that's good enough 175 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: for me. And in New Zealand that had been people 176 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 1: accepting quite extraordinary limits on their freedom of movement, which 177 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 1: would never experienced before. But it paid off and today 178 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 1: we live a much more relaxed life than than sad 179 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 1: they met people in many other countries do. New Zealand's 180 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 1: Prime minister just seem to idn has earned praise for 181 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 1: her handling of the pandemic. The country's had just over 182 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:59,240 Speaker 1: cases of COVID nineteen in total. She's one of a 183 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 1: group of maman leaders who are center have been very 184 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:10,559 Speaker 1: effective in that regard. Ungerla Merkel trained scientists, authoritative politics, society. 185 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 1: People trust Unglea Merkel not to fall with them if 186 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 1: she levels with them. They accept that. Very good performances 187 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:23,640 Speaker 1: by women leaders in nor Denmark, in Finland, in Iceland, 188 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: in in Taiwan itself of course, and of course the 189 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 1: fantastic examples of male leadership too. But we're leaders were 190 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 1: prepared to engage the public, put all the facts on 191 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,200 Speaker 1: the table, be open about what they didn't know, because 192 00:13:41,320 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: there's some things we don't know about the disease. I'd 193 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: say this is the best advice we have. This is 194 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: the judge that we've made, This is what we're asking 195 00:13:51,160 --> 00:14:08,080 Speaker 1: you to do, and people have gone along. That was 196 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 1: Jason Gaile and that's it for our show today. For 197 00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:14,080 Speaker 1: coverage of the outbreak from one and twenty beers around 198 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 1: the world, visit bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if 199 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 1: you like the show, please leave us a review and 200 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 1: a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best 201 00:14:25,800 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 1: way to help more listeners find our global reporting. The 202 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 1: Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Too for Foreheads, Jordan Gospure, 203 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: Magnus Henrickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was 204 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: reported by Jason Gail. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our 205 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: editors are Rick Shine and Francesco Levi. Francesco Levi is 206 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.