WEBVTT - ETFs Win Triple Crown in 2025 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:09.320 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Hey Joel here, Before 0:00:09.320 --> 0:00:11.560 we get started, Eric and I have a favorite to ask. 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:16.000 We're doing a quick three question survey to better understand 0:00:16.000 --> 0:00:19.680 the community listening to trillions. It's anonymous and takes just 0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:22.479 a few seconds. You can go to trillion survey dot 0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:27.800 com slash Bloomberg to answer. That's trillion survey dot com 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:37.479 slash Bloomberg. Thanks for supporting the show. Welcome Trillions. I'm 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:43.000 Joel Webber and I'm Eric. So here we are in December, 0:00:44.120 --> 0:00:48.360 and this year, if you think about ETFs, we'll go 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:53.200 down in the record books for the for pretty significant reason. 0:00:53.760 --> 0:00:56.920 Yeah, that reason to say the least. So there's three 0:00:57.440 --> 0:01:03.320 main records, write or metro that ETFs we track all year, launches, flows, 0:01:03.560 --> 0:01:06.120 and volume. Right, those are like we call it the 0:01:06.120 --> 0:01:09.479 triple crown. Normally, in a good year you get flows 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:12.680 and launches are up, right, everybody's happy, but volume isn't 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:15.280 high because volume tends to go up and people are 0:01:15.280 --> 0:01:19.040 nervous are tweaking their portfolio. Right, So in twenty twenty two, 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:21.360 when the market was down, volume was a record. So 0:01:21.520 --> 0:01:23.679 the last two years it hasn't gotten to that point. 0:01:23.800 --> 0:01:26.720 But this year the volume broke the twenty twenty two record, 0:01:26.920 --> 0:01:29.440 even though it was mostly a good year. The flows 0:01:29.600 --> 0:01:33.840 also in record territory, and the launches, man, they've blown away. 0:01:34.319 --> 0:01:36.800 They might even get close to doubling the old record. 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:40.640 So we have the real rare triple crown and each 0:01:40.640 --> 0:01:42.880 of these record it's going to get broken by double 0:01:42.920 --> 0:01:46.520 digit percentages. So this is like you know, every year, 0:01:46.520 --> 0:01:48.480 I'm like this, this has to be as good as 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:51.880 it gets, Like this is ETFs in their prime, but 0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:54.960 this has to be it. Joe, I'm saying it right now, 0:01:55.040 --> 0:01:57.200 like I feel like they can't do this again. So 0:01:57.880 --> 0:02:00.600 it's I think it's good to just look at what happened, 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:04.400 what's inside of those numbers, and what might happen next year. 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:06.240 Now you've a questioned, have we ever had a triple 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:06.880 crown before? 0:02:07.080 --> 0:02:10.200 Yes, don't laugh twenty twenty one. I know that sounds 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:12.679 like it was only four years ago, but it's rare. 0:02:12.760 --> 0:02:15.760 It's only happened a few times in thirty years. The 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:18.200 reason twenty twenty one did it is because you didn't 0:02:18.200 --> 0:02:21.080 have that twenty twenty two record of volume, so volume 0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:22.840 was a little easier to get it get over. And 0:02:22.880 --> 0:02:25.000 the other thing is twenty twenty one, if you remember, 0:02:25.639 --> 0:02:27.880 was an awesome year for stocks, right, that was like 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:30.520 the last awesome year where I think stocks were up 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:33.160 like twenty five percent or something. Everything was going right 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:35.240 in twenty twenty one until the Fed raised rates in 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:38.360 twenty twenty two. That's why I do think this year, 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:42.320 after the tariff tantrum came and went, it has some 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:43.880 twenty twenty one vibes. 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:47.239 So joining us to talk about the Triple Crown Todd Son, 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:53.160 He's a senior ETF fund and technical strategist with Stratigis Securities. 0:02:53.880 --> 0:02:57.760 And Katie Greifeld, processor reporter with Bloomberg News as well 0:02:57.760 --> 0:03:00.160 as the co host of Money Stuff and I'll so 0:03:00.280 --> 0:03:01.359 like a TV. 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:04.639 Phenomen the close etf IQ all of it. 0:03:04.880 --> 0:03:17.200 This time on Trillions Triple Crown. Todd, Katie, welcome back 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:17.720 to Trillions. 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:20.359 This is my super Bowl. I appreciate being here. 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:22.520 Super Bowl Triple Crown. We got a lot going on. 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:24.960 I am thrilled for the opportunity, though I will say 0:03:24.960 --> 0:03:26.600 I thought we were going to be talking about horses, 0:03:26.639 --> 0:03:27.760 so well, a little bit. 0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:30.840 Of a I've getten the perfect segue. Well, hold on, 0:03:30.880 --> 0:03:35.360 can we start every every triple crown has a horse's name, right, 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:38.320 Like twenty twenty one would should have had a horse's name. 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:41.920 If twenty twenty five had a horse, what would you 0:03:42.000 --> 0:03:42.360 name it? 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:46.920 Oh? My god, Joel, I need like seven seconds. 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:52.320 Of gena di Gen. The Vanguardians are always there, but 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:54.120 this year the Digen's really showed up. 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:56.760 I mean Degen, the horse. 0:03:56.960 --> 0:03:58.240 I think Degen is perfect. 0:03:58.240 --> 0:03:59.800 Hey, all right, By the. 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:01.960 Way, speaking of horses, can we just take one quick 0:04:02.120 --> 0:04:05.400 little personal note here and talk about Katie's neck tattoo? 0:04:05.480 --> 0:04:07.800 Oh my god, So she got a neck tattoo. Can 0:04:07.800 --> 0:04:10.400 you tell us the story behind this? Because I am intrigued? 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:12.640 Just really, I know horses are involved. 0:04:12.720 --> 0:04:16.240 Yeah, really quick. I had a pony named Batman from 0:04:17.279 --> 0:04:20.320 my parents. Bought him when I was eleven, which is crazy. 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:23.080 And he passed away this past May, the day before 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:26.360 my thirty second birthday. So that was a long term relationship. 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:29.560 That horse was like a brother. So I always knew 0:04:29.600 --> 0:04:32.200 I was going to get the bat signal once he 0:04:32.320 --> 0:04:33.039 left this earth. 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:35.599 But and you actually got a neck tattoo. 0:04:35.720 --> 0:04:38.080 I did, but it's hidden. You'll never see it on TV. 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:41.880 You'll only hear about it on this podcast and maybe 0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:44.080 money stuff and maybe on my Twitter. 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:45.320 Where's your tattoo? 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:49.760 I'm in free? Okay? So this was the DJ far. 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:53.520 This was far I could I could see midlife crisis 0:04:53.560 --> 0:04:55.040 creeping up sometimes since. 0:04:56.960 --> 0:05:00.279 Yeah, where's gonna like skip that one? Okay? So let's 0:05:00.279 --> 0:05:05.039 start with launches. How significant you said double digits for everything? 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:09.120 Like how how many launches were there so far? Obviously 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:10.640 there could be more between it on the end of 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:10.880 the year. 0:05:10.920 --> 0:05:13.320 We're around nine hundred and thirty launches this year with 0:05:14.080 --> 0:05:17.000 four weeks to go. Now, last year the record was 0:05:17.040 --> 0:05:19.640 I think seven hundred and ten seven to twenty, but 0:05:19.720 --> 0:05:22.560 the record before that was like five hundred and fifty, 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:25.880 So we're probably gonna double the five fifty record, which 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:27.919 was only two years ago. Whether we get to the 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:30.520 reason we could get there's an outside shot. There's a 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:32.720 bunch of three x and five xctfs that were filed, 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:35.640 like I'm talking like four hundred of them, and they 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:38.200 do come due maybe in December. I don't think the 0:05:38.240 --> 0:05:40.800 SEC is gonna allow them, but if they did, we're 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:43.520 talking like it could be a couple hundred five X. Yeah, 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:46.640 I know that they're gonna they love to push the 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:48.880 envelope in this industry. They feel like they have a 0:05:48.920 --> 0:05:51.480 workaround where they can use swaps plus options to kind 0:05:51.520 --> 0:05:53.440 of like get around this sort of because you're not 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:55.960 allowed to have three xs in a ETF. I think 0:05:56.040 --> 0:05:58.560 the SEC is not going to allow any of that. 0:05:59.040 --> 0:06:01.359 We'll see, but if if they did, that could be 0:06:01.440 --> 0:06:04.280 like dozens and dozens, if not one hundred, in short 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:06.560 order because they're all in this like major competition to 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:08.400 get out because none of them. You got to be 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:10.080 first to market in the leverage area to have like 0:06:10.120 --> 0:06:12.840 the most of the assets. The other thing is the 0:06:12.880 --> 0:06:15.080 ETF share class, although that's probably going to get pushed 0:06:15.080 --> 0:06:17.880 more into twenty twenty six. Even DFA, who I think 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:19.760 will be first, is probably not going to launch this year. 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:24.360 So we're looking at probably anywhere between one thousand and 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:27.880 like eleven fifty I would say, when all the dust settles. 0:06:28.000 --> 0:06:30.960 So that's probably what a sixty seventy percent increase over 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:31.799 last year's record. 0:06:32.800 --> 0:06:36.279 Todd How successful will those launches be, I. 0:06:36.320 --> 0:06:39.720 Think it depends on what you're looking at. Going back 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:43.160 to DIGEN, leverage was a huge part of this year. 0:06:43.240 --> 0:06:46.599 Right There's been one out of every four maybe a 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:49.800 third of launches have been involved leverage, right, and part 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:52.920 of this is a single stock leverage space. So this 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:55.800 year you've had over two hundred of those involving single 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:57.360 stock leverage. And I think the interesting part is you're 0:06:57.400 --> 0:06:59.839 just we're just throwing stuff at the wall. You started 0:06:59.839 --> 0:07:02.920 with blue chip companies Tesla and Video few years ago, 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:05.680 and now we're just going for anything sub ten billion 0:07:06.120 --> 0:07:09.840 that might catch fire. So back to your question how 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:11.560 successful they are, A lot of them are at risk 0:07:11.600 --> 0:07:14.640 of closure if the actual equing market does decline like 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:15.800 a twenty twenty two. I think a lot of them 0:07:15.840 --> 0:07:21.400 are gonna close. But they have fully really contributed to that, 0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:23.640 to that launches aspect, and Eric mentioned the three x 0:07:23.640 --> 0:07:27.360 five x potential. Man, this thing's not slowing down. 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:30.800 And these these two x stockyt has charge one hundred 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:33.800 basis points, so all you need is like one hit 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:36.360 to be set for life. And so it's almost like 0:07:36.400 --> 0:07:39.200 a lottery system for the issuers because they just get 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:41.760 one hit, they're good. And what I found interesting is 0:07:42.320 --> 0:07:45.520 I get Tesla and Navidio two X being big hits. Okay, fine, 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:48.160 but there's stuff that gets put out that I've never 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:49.800 heard of the stock droll. I'm like, I have to 0:07:49.840 --> 0:07:52.760 like google it, and I'm like, it's some random quantum 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:55.160 stock that is like a small cap, and all of 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:57.600 a sudden, I look up the things trading like twenty 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:00.120 thirty million a day. It's got one hundred million, and 0:08:01.000 --> 0:08:04.040 so you even got mid range hits. I wouldn't call 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:08.320 it a blockbuster, but there's a lot of appetite, and 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:14.000 so the industry is feeding the digens because the digens 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:14.880 are hungry. 0:08:15.280 --> 0:08:18.440 I will say, I mean to Todd's point, we'll see 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:20.240 if this turns into closures. It's also going to be 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:22.800 interesting if we do get into the really highly leveraged 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:25.680 stuff three times five times, whether or not those funds 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:29.120 will eventually be closed or whether they're going to implode 0:08:29.240 --> 0:08:30.880 in some way, because I think that was one of 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:34.200 the more interesting tales of the past couple months that 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:38.360 you had that European listed three times AMD product. There 0:08:38.400 --> 0:08:41.760 was a single day where AMD announced some partnership. I 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:44.200 think it was with open Ai. It feels like everything 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:44.960 is with open Ai. 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:46.600 That's the circular financing. 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:47.640 It's very circular. 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:50.760 Yeah, but it was an inverse AMD fund right, and 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:55.560 it AMD surge double digits and this fund had to close, 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:58.400 so that's certainly going to be fun to watch. The 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:00.840 other thing I would add to this conversation is, you know, 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:03.560 there's a lot of these single stock funds that are launching. 0:09:03.600 --> 0:09:06.280 That probably explains the high number of new funds coming 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:09.079 to market. There's also a lot of new issuers who 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:12.280 are coming to market as well, who are behind these funds. 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:15.360 I know there's a Bloomberg Intelligence stat that I think 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:18.240 there's sixty new ETF firms that have entered the industry 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:21.000 over the past two years, which is also pretty stunning. 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:22.880 Yeah, and now there's I think there's three hundred total 0:09:22.920 --> 0:09:25.560 firms and six hundred brands. One quick thing on the 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:29.240 on the leverage Ethnosius to this study on my team 0:09:29.320 --> 0:09:32.240 that found that if they put the three X and 0:09:32.360 --> 0:09:35.200 forget forget five x, just three x. If they do 0:09:35.200 --> 0:09:38.080 all these stocks and three x, there is going to 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:41.680 be an implosion like every other week, because a lot 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:43.560 of them go up thirty three percent or down thirty 0:09:43.559 --> 0:09:47.040 three percent pretty regularly. What's also interesting about the negative 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:50.400 three x AMD in Europe is almost all of these 0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:53.320 leverage ETFs are launching are long like It's almost like 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:57.040 a nine to one or ten to one long to short. However, 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.120 in that little pullback we had like two or three 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:01.400 weeks ago, everybody freaked out about it was like four 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:03.200 percent from all time highs, and people are ready to like, 0:10:03.280 --> 0:10:08.600 you know it, call it the years over. They saw 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:11.640 some launches of inverse of these quantum because people are like, 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:14.400 oh wait, we forgot things can go down. So some 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:16.320 of these launches, they're probably gonna put the inverse out 0:10:16.400 --> 0:10:19.160 so you can bet the other way. Now there's inverse 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:21.720 and long. I think that does increase the likelihood of 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:24.719 a couple of terminations. However, I Ehan and I talk 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:26.400 about this all the time. We're like, we don't think 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:28.440 the degends care. You know that scene in Mad Max 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:31.280 Fury Road. They're just like cruising along and like one 0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:33.679 of the cars just wipes out, and nobody they just 0:10:33.720 --> 0:10:35.959 look behind them and they just keep going like nobody 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:39.280 really cares. They just keep driving. That to me is 0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:41.160 what I think this will feel like. If we have 0:10:41.240 --> 0:10:43.280 an implosion, like if the Granite Chair is something has 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:45.520 to close, they'll just go, oh, that's a shame, and 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:47.760 they'll just keep degending as we go forward. 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:50.560 It's a big portion of the numbers. 0:10:50.600 --> 0:10:53.280 The media will be like, oh my god, you know, implosion, 0:10:53.360 --> 0:10:55.880 I get, but I don't think the users care. They're 0:10:55.920 --> 0:11:01.320 just like whatever, onto the next one. Classic media, Well, 0:11:01.360 --> 0:11:06.400 come on, termination, implosions pretty good. Yeah, I know all these. 0:11:06.240 --> 0:11:15.640 Fun words, we don't usually get to use them. 0:11:15.840 --> 0:11:17.880 By the way, just to bring it back to ponies, Yeah, 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:21.080 to be a triple Crown you gotta to be a 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:24.800 triple crown winner. You gotta win a the Kentucky Derby, 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:30.120 be the Preakness, and see the Belmont, which is launches. 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:32.120 Is that the Derby? 0:11:32.200 --> 0:11:34.920 To me, the Kentucky Derby would be flows. That's the 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:38.560 most important because that's that is net new cash coming in. 0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:40.080 That's that's votes. 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:42.679 Okay, so we've messed up our order already, but let's 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:44.360 go ahead. Let's start talking about flows. 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:48.640 The flows this year droll one point two four trillion 0:11:49.559 --> 0:11:51.960 with a T and there're still a month ago and 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:56.600 podcast about this. I think they'll see sixty billion in December. 0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:59.439 That's about the monthly haul lately, and so I think 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:01.440 we're gonna end it one point three trillion. Now, that'll 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:04.000 be two hundred billion over the record. The record last 0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:06.160 year is one point one trillion, and again that was 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:08.880 that was the record, Like it's just record after record. 0:12:09.559 --> 0:12:14.400 When we look at that number, it's enormous. If I 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:18.720 take you over to mutual funds collectively, I think they're 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:23.600 around negative seven hundred billion in outflows. So there's like 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:25.680 more money going to ETFs than leaving mutual funds. All 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:27.960 the equity side is worse. And if we look at 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:30.600 the number of ETFs that are taken in flows, we 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:34.640 are at three thousand, three hundred and seventy nine of 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:38.200 four thousand, seven hundred and sixty nine. So that's I mean, 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:41.080 the getting is good. I mean, everybody's getting bites. If 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:43.320 you're in that, if you're in that one thousand, that's 0:12:43.320 --> 0:12:45.280 not you should probably just pack it up. I mean, 0:12:45.320 --> 0:12:48.760 because if you can't catch fish in this environment, like 0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:51.080 you are using the wrong bait, you're a bad fisherman. 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:54.160 You gotta go what jumps out to you in that category, 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:56.079 just the flows. 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:58.920 Yeah, I mean, first of all, vou one hundred and 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:01.480 twenty four billion, it has a real shot to get 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:04.800 to one forty one fifty that's also a record so 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:08.319 for a single year, and then IVV is right behind it. 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.040 I would say if anything was kind of shocking this 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:14.680 year would be the cash like ETFs did better ask 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:18.400 GOV the treasuries and gold GLD at nineteen billion, that 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:23.480 old dog, there's cheaper gold ETFs. So for that old warhorse, 0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:26.080 to you know, I'm sticking with the horse teams. 0:13:26.080 --> 0:13:26.400 I love this. 0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:29.320 Yeah that for that to finish in eighth place is 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:32.200 pretty is pretty compelling this year. But to me, the 0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:36.520 flows were summarized this year as Okay, i am not 0:13:36.720 --> 0:13:38.040 going to try to time the market, so I'm going 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:40.280 to buy equities and I'm not going to let anything 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:42.640 scare me. Even during the tariff tantrum, the investors were 0:13:42.679 --> 0:13:45.760 not scared. They're like, I'm buying equities. However, they did 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:48.320 want to get some protection on the side, so they 0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:51.240 bought gold and treasuries, So we saw some safety dance 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:54.560 going on with those plus the equities, which for ETFs 0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:56.800 is good because that means just they're buying everything pretty. 0:13:56.640 --> 0:13:59.880 Much beta with the side of beltunas there we go. 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:04.199 Well, no, that would be like two x crypto, which 0:14:04.240 --> 0:14:05.360 is also what was going on. 0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:08.040 The One of the area that does stand out in 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:12.559 terms of inflows is a revival and thematic funds too, right, 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:16.000 nuclear power generation, I guess ai, if you want to 0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:20.040 call it that without data centers, data, yeah, I guess 0:14:20.120 --> 0:14:23.680 data centers too, without without really a massive participation from 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:24.480 from the ARC Funds. 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:24.600 Right. 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:27.280 I think back to twenty twenty one, the prior record 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:32.040 that was led by thematic funds. ARC did big business then, 0:14:32.520 --> 0:14:34.960 and now you've owned it, owned the air, Yeah, they were. 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:37.920 They were the thematic player. Now that's really spread out across. 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.120 So Thematic Funds are back, I think as a compliment 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:44.200 to the voo the ivvs of the world too. So 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.080 that's pretty interesting to me. And then on the names 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:50.680 that haven't participated two areas. Maybe this is a twenty 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.520 twenty six story small caps, right, people gave up on 0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:54.080 small caps. 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:56.080 Let's unpack that. 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:57.440 Hold on what's the other one? 0:14:57.760 --> 0:14:58.600 Low volatility? 0:14:58.680 --> 0:14:59.960 Okay, oh, okay factor. 0:15:02.520 --> 0:15:05.680 I don't even know what to attack first, small caps. 0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:08.080 I'm gonna tell I'm gonna give you the counter. Yeah, 0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:12.000 these mag seven stocks and others. Anytime a company is 0:15:12.040 --> 0:15:15.000 worth anything, now it just gets bought. It's like the 0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:17.160 Lakers taking all the good players before they even go 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:19.960 to college, you know what I mean? So small caps 0:15:20.000 --> 0:15:23.720 used to be a prospect area of like good companies 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:26.960 that just iPod and like they're rising stars. Well they 0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:29.720 wait later to IPO until they're large caps. They skip 0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:32.480 that area, and if they're worth anything, they get bought 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:34.800 by these big companies who the mag seven has acquired 0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:38.200 almost nine hundred different companies. So isn't small caps really 0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:40.600 just a dumping ground now instead of like a farm system. 0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:43.720 They have a structural problem, right, these companies, as you said, 0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:46.200 they either get acquired or once they IPO they're already 0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:49.480 a large cap. It's interesting though, they've had a good 0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:51.720 run here last eight months, probably because of the quantum 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:54.480 stuff and the Meme esque type funds which are basically 0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:57.280 the top of the Russell two thousands, So maybe the 0:15:57.320 --> 0:15:58.240 tune is changing. 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:02.280 Do midcaps even exist anymore? I just look in most 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:02.760 small caps. 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:06.239 Yeah, they definitely do. Though I hear so many beautiful 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:09.360 bowl cases built around small caps and also mid caps, 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:12.280 and I mean, to Eric's point, it seems like there's 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:15.080 been so many false dons. The supply problem though, that 0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:17.480 you guys are talking about is really interesting that you 0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:19.760 don't have these smaller companies coming to market, and it 0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:23.160 feels like tech companies are the last true conglomerates in 0:16:23.240 --> 0:16:25.520 terms of just buying everything up that looks promising. 0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:29.880 If you aren't going to enforce antitrust laws, then there's 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:32.920 a secular change going on. Because I looked, you know, 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:35.480 GE was the last mega company to like run the 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:38.320 S and P five hundred, Like back in the two thousands, 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:40.320 Ge was like the biggest thought member the. 0:16:40.320 --> 0:16:42.680 Jack Welsh It was fifty percent of the industrial sector. 0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:44.520 Yeah, I mean it was. It was the Mag seven 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:48.560 of its day, right. It acquired seventy companies, which is 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:52.960 a lot. Google has acquired two fifty, Microsoft two fifty, 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:56.840 like these are another level and some of the companies 0:16:56.880 --> 0:17:01.240 that are acquired are would be top fifty names otherwise. 0:17:01.280 --> 0:17:05.920 So I think until they break up these companies, That's 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:08.639 why I'm like, if you don't own the Mag seven, 0:17:09.080 --> 0:17:11.959 it's almost like you don't own small caps too in 0:17:12.000 --> 0:17:14.320 a way, if you think about it from a certain 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.080 point of view. That's why this whole idea of like 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:19.800 cfaing the market, I just think it's bad news. You 0:17:19.840 --> 0:17:22.240 got to think a little more like a degeneral momentum 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:25.320 trader and just ride it because it's not the same 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:27.480 as it was I don't And I know that's like 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:31.680 famous last words. Things do revert, but especially. 0:17:31.240 --> 0:17:33.800 If we're comparing this to twenty twenty one and twenty 0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:37.040 twenty two, we all remember was a very dark year. 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:40.679 However, in twenty twenty two the FED raise rates and 0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:42.240 like that that was like crack. That was like the 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:44.840 cop showing up at the party. It's over right, take 0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:45.560 away the punch bowl. 0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:47.000 Now we're all drinking age. 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:50.880 Is gonna it's gonna nominate some Yes, man, we could 0:17:50.880 --> 0:17:53.399 have negative rates this time next year. I mean remember 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:57.240 that they might. They might give you money. So it's 0:17:57.280 --> 0:17:59.760 a it's not twenty twenty two next year. Unless there's 0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:01.119 some swan we're not envisioning. 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:02.560 We'll see though. Yeah, do you want to take a 0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:05.479 flamethrower to the lowvall category? Yeah? 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:10.840 So Athanasios wrote this great note that buffer ETFs killed 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:11.560 the LOWVALL star. 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:14.840 I agree with that totally. Okay, So they have a 0:18:14.840 --> 0:18:18.480 proliferation of other options problem and you just haven't needed 0:18:18.480 --> 0:18:22.200 them either. Right outside of April, there's been no reason 0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:24.520 to own low voll defensive type strategies. 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:28.960 I mean, I just think buffers are more guaranteed. It's 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:32.679 not guessing. It's like you know when you do that 0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:35.640 machine where you get the football helmet or the piece 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:38.080 of candy from the from the quarter machine. Remember back 0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:40.320 in the day, You're like, I don't know what I'm 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:42.919 gonna get. Yeah, that's more like lowvall. It'll probably go 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:47.200 down somewhat less. Whereas the buffers they lock in your performance. 0:18:47.240 --> 0:18:49.159 And I think if you're older with a lot of 0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:52.080 money on the line, you'd rather have that guarantee than 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:53.720 just like wing it with lowvall. 0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:56.560 A defined outcome if you will exactly. 0:18:56.359 --> 0:18:58.920 And keep in mind you get three and a half 0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:02.919 to four percent on treasury bills ETFs. Right, why am 0:19:02.960 --> 0:19:05.359 I going to own a low VOLLEYTF that I'm yielding 0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:07.000 less and I'm also taking equity risk. 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:09.119 They're in a bad spot. 0:19:09.400 --> 0:19:11.560 Yeah, I just think it's interesting that they them and 0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:14.480 small kins have just entirely left, you know, left for dead. 0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:16.560 Well when you're in those are the reasons, though, I 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:18.920 mean there are good reasons. They're not market reasons. They're 0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:20.160 more structural in it in a way. 0:19:20.440 --> 0:19:29.040 Right, I'd like to. 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:31.000 Bring it back to ponies again, Yeah, thank you, which 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:35.320 is if you've won the derby and you've won the Preakness. 0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:39.920 What is the Belmont volume? So let's talk about. 0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:43.560 Yeah, ETFs are going to trade. ETFs are going to 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:46.280 trade in the neighborhood of sixty trillion dollars worth of 0:19:46.280 --> 0:19:46.880