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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Hey Joel here, Before

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Speaker 1: we get started, Eric and I have a favorite to ask.

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Speaker 1: com slash Bloomberg to answer. That's trillion survey dot com

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Speaker 1: slash Bloomberg. Thanks for supporting the show. Welcome Trillions. I'm

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Speaker 1: Joel Webber and I'm Eric. So here we are in December,

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Speaker 1: and this year, if you think about ETFs, we'll go

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Speaker 1: down in the record books for the for pretty significant reason.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that reason to say the least. So there's three

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Speaker 2: main records, write or metro that ETFs we track all year, launches, flows,

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Speaker 2: and volume. Right, those are like we call it the

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Speaker 2: triple crown. Normally, in a good year you get flows

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Speaker 2: and launches are up, right, everybody's happy, but volume isn't

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Speaker 2: high because volume tends to go up and people are

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Speaker 2: nervous are tweaking their portfolio. Right, So in twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 2: when the market was down, volume was a record. So

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Speaker 2: the last two years it hasn't gotten to that point.

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Speaker 2: But this year the volume broke the twenty twenty two record,

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Speaker 2: even though it was mostly a good year. The flows

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Speaker 2: also in record territory, and the launches, man, they've blown away.

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Speaker 2: They might even get close to doubling the old record.

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Speaker 2: So we have the real rare triple crown and each

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Speaker 2: of these record it's going to get broken by double

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Speaker 2: digit percentages. So this is like you know, every year,

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Speaker 2: I'm like this, this has to be as good as

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Speaker 2: it gets, Like this is ETFs in their prime, but

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Speaker 2: this has to be it. Joe, I'm saying it right now,

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Speaker 2: like I feel like they can't do this again. So

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Speaker 2: it's I think it's good to just look at what happened,

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Speaker 2: what's inside of those numbers, and what might happen next year.

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Speaker 1: Now you've a questioned, have we ever had a triple

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Speaker 1: crown before?

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Speaker 2: Yes, don't laugh twenty twenty one. I know that sounds

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Speaker 2: like it was only four years ago, but it's rare.

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Speaker 2: It's only happened a few times in thirty years. The

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Speaker 2: reason twenty twenty one did it is because you didn't

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Speaker 2: have that twenty twenty two record of volume, so volume

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Speaker 2: was a little easier to get it get over. And

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Speaker 2: the other thing is twenty twenty one, if you remember,

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Speaker 2: was an awesome year for stocks, right, that was like

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Speaker 2: the last awesome year where I think stocks were up

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Speaker 2: like twenty five percent or something. Everything was going right

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one until the Fed raised rates in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two. That's why I do think this year,

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Speaker 2: after the tariff tantrum came and went, it has some

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty one vibes.

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Speaker 1: So joining us to talk about the Triple Crown Todd Son,

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Speaker 1: He's a senior ETF fund and technical strategist with Stratigis Securities.

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Speaker 1: And Katie Greifeld, processor reporter with Bloomberg News as well

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Speaker 1: as the co host of Money Stuff and I'll so

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Speaker 1: like a TV.

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Speaker 3: Phenomen the close etf IQ all of it.

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Speaker 1: This time on Trillions Triple Crown. Todd, Katie, welcome back

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Speaker 1: to Trillions.

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Speaker 4: This is my super Bowl. I appreciate being here.

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl Triple Crown. We got a lot going on.

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Speaker 3: I am thrilled for the opportunity, though I will say

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Speaker 3: I thought we were going to be talking about horses,

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Speaker 3: so well, a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Of a I've getten the perfect segue. Well, hold on,

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Speaker 1: can we start every every triple crown has a horse's name, right,

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Speaker 1: Like twenty twenty one would should have had a horse's name.

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Speaker 1: If twenty twenty five had a horse, what would you

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Speaker 1: name it?

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Speaker 3: Oh? My god, Joel, I need like seven seconds.

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Speaker 2: Of gena di Gen. The Vanguardians are always there, but

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Speaker 2: this year the Digen's really showed up.

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Speaker 1: I mean Degen, the horse.

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Speaker 4: I think Degen is perfect.

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Speaker 1: Hey, all right, By the.

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Speaker 2: Way, speaking of horses, can we just take one quick

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Speaker 2: little personal note here and talk about Katie's neck tattoo?

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Speaker 2: Oh my god, So she got a neck tattoo. Can

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Speaker 2: you tell us the story behind this? Because I am intrigued?

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Speaker 2: Just really, I know horses are involved.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, really quick. I had a pony named Batman from

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Speaker 3: my parents. Bought him when I was eleven, which is crazy.

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Speaker 3: And he passed away this past May, the day before

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Speaker 3: my thirty second birthday. So that was a long term relationship.

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Speaker 3: That horse was like a brother. So I always knew

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Speaker 3: I was going to get the bat signal once he

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Speaker 3: left this earth.

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Speaker 1: But and you actually got a neck tattoo.

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Speaker 3: I did, but it's hidden. You'll never see it on TV.

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Speaker 3: You'll only hear about it on this podcast and maybe

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Speaker 3: money stuff and maybe on my Twitter.

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Speaker 2: Where's your tattoo?

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Speaker 1: I'm in free? Okay? So this was the DJ far.

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Speaker 2: This was far I could I could see midlife crisis

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Speaker 2: creeping up sometimes since.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, where's gonna like skip that one? Okay? So let's

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Speaker 1: start with launches. How significant you said double digits for everything?

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Speaker 1: Like how how many launches were there so far? Obviously

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Speaker 1: there could be more between it on the end of

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Speaker 1: the year.

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Speaker 2: We're around nine hundred and thirty launches this year with

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Speaker 2: four weeks to go. Now, last year the record was

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Speaker 2: I think seven hundred and ten seven to twenty, but

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Speaker 2: the record before that was like five hundred and fifty,

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Speaker 2: So we're probably gonna double the five fifty record, which

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Speaker 2: was only two years ago. Whether we get to the

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Speaker 2: reason we could get there's an outside shot. There's a

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Speaker 2: bunch of three x and five xctfs that were filed,

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Speaker 2: like I'm talking like four hundred of them, and they

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Speaker 2: do come due maybe in December. I don't think the

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Speaker 2: SEC is gonna allow them, but if they did, we're

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Speaker 2: talking like it could be a couple hundred five X. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I know that they're gonna they love to push the

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Speaker 2: envelope in this industry. They feel like they have a

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Speaker 2: workaround where they can use swaps plus options to kind

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Speaker 2: of like get around this sort of because you're not

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Speaker 2: allowed to have three xs in a ETF. I think

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Speaker 2: the SEC is not going to allow any of that.

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Speaker 2: We'll see, but if if they did, that could be

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Speaker 2: like dozens and dozens, if not one hundred, in short

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Speaker 2: order because they're all in this like major competition to

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Speaker 2: get out because none of them. You got to be

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Speaker 2: first to market in the leverage area to have like

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Speaker 2: the most of the assets. The other thing is the

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Speaker 2: ETF share class, although that's probably going to get pushed

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Speaker 2: more into twenty twenty six. Even DFA, who I think

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Speaker 2: will be first, is probably not going to launch this year.

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Speaker 2: So we're looking at probably anywhere between one thousand and

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Speaker 2: like eleven fifty I would say, when all the dust settles.

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Speaker 2: So that's probably what a sixty seventy percent increase over

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Speaker 2: last year's record.

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Speaker 1: Todd How successful will those launches be, I.

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Speaker 4: Think it depends on what you're looking at. Going back

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Speaker 4: to DIGEN, leverage was a huge part of this year.

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Speaker 4: Right There's been one out of every four maybe a

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Speaker 4: third of launches have been involved leverage, right, and part

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Speaker 4: of this is a single stock leverage space. So this

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Speaker 4: year you've had over two hundred of those involving single

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Speaker 4: stock leverage. And I think the interesting part is you're

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Speaker 4: just we're just throwing stuff at the wall. You started

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Speaker 4: with blue chip companies Tesla and Video few years ago,

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Speaker 4: and now we're just going for anything sub ten billion

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Speaker 4: that might catch fire. So back to your question how

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Speaker 4: successful they are, A lot of them are at risk

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Speaker 4: of closure if the actual equing market does decline like

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Speaker 4: a twenty twenty two. I think a lot of them

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Speaker 4: are gonna close. But they have fully really contributed to that,

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Speaker 4: to that launches aspect, and Eric mentioned the three x

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Speaker 4: five x potential. Man, this thing's not slowing down.

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Speaker 2: And these these two x stockyt has charge one hundred

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Speaker 2: basis points, so all you need is like one hit

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Speaker 2: to be set for life. And so it's almost like

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Speaker 2: a lottery system for the issuers because they just get

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Speaker 2: one hit, they're good. And what I found interesting is

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Speaker 2: I get Tesla and Navidio two X being big hits. Okay, fine,

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Speaker 2: but there's stuff that gets put out that I've never

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Speaker 2: heard of the stock droll. I'm like, I have to

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Speaker 2: like google it, and I'm like, it's some random quantum

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Speaker 2: stock that is like a small cap, and all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden, I look up the things trading like twenty

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Speaker 2: thirty million a day. It's got one hundred million, and

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Speaker 2: so you even got mid range hits. I wouldn't call

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Speaker 2: it a blockbuster, but there's a lot of appetite, and

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Speaker 2: so the industry is feeding the digens because the digens

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Speaker 2: are hungry.

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Speaker 3: I will say, I mean to Todd's point, we'll see

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Speaker 3: if this turns into closures. It's also going to be

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Speaker 3: interesting if we do get into the really highly leveraged

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Speaker 3: stuff three times five times, whether or not those funds

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Speaker 3: will eventually be closed or whether they're going to implode

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Speaker 3: in some way, because I think that was one of

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Speaker 3: the more interesting tales of the past couple months that

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Speaker 3: you had that European listed three times AMD product. There

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Speaker 3: was a single day where AMD announced some partnership. I

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Speaker 3: think it was with open Ai. It feels like everything

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Speaker 3: is with open Ai.

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Speaker 1: That's the circular financing.

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Speaker 2: It's very circular.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, but it was an inverse AMD fund right, and

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Speaker 3: it AMD surge double digits and this fund had to close,

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Speaker 3: so that's certainly going to be fun to watch. The

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Speaker 3: other thing I would add to this conversation is, you know,

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Speaker 3: there's a lot of these single stock funds that are launching.

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Speaker 3: That probably explains the high number of new funds coming

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Speaker 3: to market. There's also a lot of new issuers who

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Speaker 3: are coming to market as well, who are behind these funds.

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Speaker 3: I know there's a Bloomberg Intelligence stat that I think

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Speaker 3: there's sixty new ETF firms that have entered the industry

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Speaker 3: over the past two years, which is also pretty stunning.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and now there's I think there's three hundred total

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Speaker 2: firms and six hundred brands. One quick thing on the

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Speaker 2: on the leverage Ethnosius to this study on my team

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Speaker 2: that found that if they put the three X and

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Speaker 2: forget forget five x, just three x. If they do

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Speaker 2: all these stocks and three x, there is going to

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Speaker 2: be an implosion like every other week, because a lot

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Speaker 2: of them go up thirty three percent or down thirty

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Speaker 2: three percent pretty regularly. What's also interesting about the negative

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Speaker 2: three x AMD in Europe is almost all of these

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Speaker 2: leverage ETFs are launching are long like It's almost like

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Speaker 2: a nine to one or ten to one long to short. However,

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Speaker 2: in that little pullback we had like two or three

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Speaker 2: weeks ago, everybody freaked out about it was like four

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Speaker 2: percent from all time highs, and people are ready to like,

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Speaker 2: you know it, call it the years over. They saw

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Speaker 2: some launches of inverse of these quantum because people are like,

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Speaker 2: oh wait, we forgot things can go down. So some

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Speaker 2: of these launches, they're probably gonna put the inverse out

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Speaker 2: so you can bet the other way. Now there's inverse

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Speaker 2: and long. I think that does increase the likelihood of

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Speaker 2: a couple of terminations. However, I Ehan and I talk

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Speaker 2: about this all the time. We're like, we don't think

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Speaker 2: the degends care. You know that scene in Mad Max

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Speaker 2: Fury Road. They're just like cruising along and like one

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Speaker 2: of the cars just wipes out, and nobody they just

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Speaker 2: look behind them and they just keep going like nobody

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Speaker 2: really cares. They just keep driving. That to me is

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Speaker 2: what I think this will feel like. If we have

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Speaker 2: an implosion, like if the Granite Chair is something has

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Speaker 2: to close, they'll just go, oh, that's a shame, and

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Speaker 2: they'll just keep degending as we go forward.

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Speaker 4: It's a big portion of the numbers.

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Speaker 2: The media will be like, oh my god, you know, implosion,

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Speaker 2: I get, but I don't think the users care. They're

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Speaker 2: just like whatever, onto the next one. Classic media, Well,

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Speaker 2: come on, termination, implosions pretty good. Yeah, I know all these.

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Speaker 3: Fun words, we don't usually get to use them.

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Speaker 1: By the way, just to bring it back to ponies, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: to be a triple Crown you gotta to be a

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Speaker 1: triple crown winner. You gotta win a the Kentucky Derby,

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Speaker 1: be the Preakness, and see the Belmont, which is launches.

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Speaker 1: Is that the Derby?

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Speaker 2: To me, the Kentucky Derby would be flows. That's the

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Speaker 2: most important because that's that is net new cash coming in.

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Speaker 2: That's that's votes.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so we've messed up our order already, but let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead. Let's start talking about flows.

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Speaker 2: The flows this year droll one point two four trillion

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Speaker 2: with a T and there're still a month ago and

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Speaker 2: podcast about this. I think they'll see sixty billion in December.

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Speaker 2: That's about the monthly haul lately, and so I think

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Speaker 2: we're gonna end it one point three trillion. Now, that'll

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Speaker 2: be two hundred billion over the record. The record last

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Speaker 2: year is one point one trillion, and again that was

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Speaker 2: that was the record, Like it's just record after record.

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Speaker 2: When we look at that number, it's enormous. If I

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Speaker 2: take you over to mutual funds collectively, I think they're

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Speaker 2: around negative seven hundred billion in outflows. So there's like

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Speaker 2: more money going to ETFs than leaving mutual funds. All

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Speaker 2: the equity side is worse. And if we look at

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Speaker 2: the number of ETFs that are taken in flows, we

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Speaker 2: are at three thousand, three hundred and seventy nine of

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Speaker 2: four thousand, seven hundred and sixty nine. So that's I mean,

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Speaker 2: the getting is good. I mean, everybody's getting bites. If

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Speaker 2: you're in that, if you're in that one thousand, that's

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Speaker 2: not you should probably just pack it up. I mean,

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Speaker 2: because if you can't catch fish in this environment, like

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Speaker 2: you are using the wrong bait, you're a bad fisherman.

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Speaker 1: You gotta go what jumps out to you in that category,

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Speaker 1: just the flows.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, first of all, vou one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty four billion, it has a real shot to get

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Speaker 2: to one forty one fifty that's also a record so

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Speaker 2: for a single year, and then IVV is right behind it.

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Speaker 2: I would say if anything was kind of shocking this

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Speaker 2: year would be the cash like ETFs did better ask

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Speaker 2: GOV the treasuries and gold GLD at nineteen billion, that

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Speaker 2: old dog, there's cheaper gold ETFs. So for that old warhorse,

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Speaker 2: to you know, I'm sticking with the horse teams.

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Speaker 3: I love this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah that for that to finish in eighth place is

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Speaker 2: pretty is pretty compelling this year. But to me, the

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Speaker 2: flows were summarized this year as Okay, i am not

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Speaker 2: going to try to time the market, so I'm going

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Speaker 2: to buy equities and I'm not going to let anything

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Speaker 2: scare me. Even during the tariff tantrum, the investors were

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Speaker 2: not scared. They're like, I'm buying equities. However, they did

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Speaker 2: want to get some protection on the side, so they

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Speaker 2: bought gold and treasuries, So we saw some safety dance

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Speaker 2: going on with those plus the equities, which for ETFs

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Speaker 2: is good because that means just they're buying everything pretty.

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Speaker 4: Much beta with the side of beltunas there we go.

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Speaker 2: Well, no, that would be like two x crypto, which

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Speaker 2: is also what was going on.

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Speaker 4: The One of the area that does stand out in

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Speaker 4: terms of inflows is a revival and thematic funds too, right,

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Speaker 4: nuclear power generation, I guess ai, if you want to

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Speaker 4: call it that without data centers, data, yeah, I guess

286
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Speaker 4: data centers too, without without really a massive participation from

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Speaker 4: from the ARC Funds.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 4: I think back to twenty twenty one, the prior record

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Speaker 4: that was led by thematic funds. ARC did big business then,

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Speaker 4: and now you've owned it, owned the air, Yeah, they were.

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Speaker 4: They were the thematic player. Now that's really spread out across.

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Speaker 4: So Thematic Funds are back, I think as a compliment

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Speaker 4: to the voo the ivvs of the world too. So

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Speaker 4: that's pretty interesting to me. And then on the names

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Speaker 4: that haven't participated two areas. Maybe this is a twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty six story small caps, right, people gave up on

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Speaker 4: small caps.

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Speaker 2: Let's unpack that.

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Speaker 1: Hold on what's the other one?

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Speaker 4: Low volatility?

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Speaker 1: Okay, oh, okay factor.

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Speaker 2: I don't even know what to attack first, small caps.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna tell I'm gonna give you the counter. Yeah,

305
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Speaker 2: these mag seven stocks and others. Anytime a company is

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Speaker 2: worth anything, now it just gets bought. It's like the

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Speaker 2: Lakers taking all the good players before they even go

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Speaker 2: to college, you know what I mean? So small caps

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Speaker 2: used to be a prospect area of like good companies

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Speaker 2: that just iPod and like they're rising stars. Well they

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Speaker 2: wait later to IPO until they're large caps. They skip

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Speaker 2: that area, and if they're worth anything, they get bought

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Speaker 2: by these big companies who the mag seven has acquired

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Speaker 2: almost nine hundred different companies. So isn't small caps really

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Speaker 2: just a dumping ground now instead of like a farm system.

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Speaker 4: They have a structural problem, right, these companies, as you said,

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Speaker 4: they either get acquired or once they IPO they're already

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Speaker 4: a large cap. It's interesting though, they've had a good

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Speaker 4: run here last eight months, probably because of the quantum

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Speaker 4: stuff and the Meme esque type funds which are basically

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Speaker 4: the top of the Russell two thousands, So maybe the

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Speaker 4: tune is changing.

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Speaker 1: Do midcaps even exist anymore? I just look in most

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Speaker 1: small caps.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they definitely do. Though I hear so many beautiful

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Speaker 3: bowl cases built around small caps and also mid caps,

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Speaker 3: and I mean, to Eric's point, it seems like there's

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Speaker 3: been so many false dons. The supply problem though, that

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Speaker 3: you guys are talking about is really interesting that you

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Speaker 3: don't have these smaller companies coming to market, and it

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Speaker 3: feels like tech companies are the last true conglomerates in

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Speaker 3: terms of just buying everything up that looks promising.

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Speaker 2: If you aren't going to enforce antitrust laws, then there's

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Speaker 2: a secular change going on. Because I looked, you know,

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Speaker 2: GE was the last mega company to like run the

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Speaker 2: S and P five hundred, Like back in the two thousands,

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Speaker 2: Ge was like the biggest thought member the.

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Speaker 4: Jack Welsh It was fifty percent of the industrial sector.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it was. It was the Mag seven

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Speaker 2: of its day, right. It acquired seventy companies, which is

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Speaker 2: a lot. Google has acquired two fifty, Microsoft two fifty,

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Speaker 2: like these are another level and some of the companies

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Speaker 2: that are acquired are would be top fifty names otherwise.

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Speaker 2: So I think until they break up these companies, That's

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Speaker 2: why I'm like, if you don't own the Mag seven,

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Speaker 2: it's almost like you don't own small caps too in

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Speaker 2: a way, if you think about it from a certain

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Speaker 2: point of view. That's why this whole idea of like

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Speaker 2: cfaing the market, I just think it's bad news. You

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Speaker 2: got to think a little more like a degeneral momentum

351
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Speaker 2: trader and just ride it because it's not the same

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Speaker 2: as it was I don't And I know that's like

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Speaker 2: famous last words. Things do revert, but especially.

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Speaker 3: If we're comparing this to twenty twenty one and twenty

355
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Speaker 3: twenty two, we all remember was a very dark year.

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Speaker 2: However, in twenty twenty two the FED raise rates and

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Speaker 2: like that that was like crack. That was like the

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Speaker 2: cop showing up at the party. It's over right, take

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Speaker 2: away the punch bowl.

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Speaker 3: Now we're all drinking age.

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Speaker 2: Is gonna it's gonna nominate some Yes, man, we could

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Speaker 2: have negative rates this time next year. I mean remember

363
00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 2: that they might. They might give you money. So it's

364
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Speaker 2: a it's not twenty twenty two next year. Unless there's

365
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Speaker 2: some swan we're not envisioning.

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Speaker 1: We'll see though. Yeah, do you want to take a

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00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,479
Speaker 1: flamethrower to the lowvall category? Yeah?

368
00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 2: So Athanasios wrote this great note that buffer ETFs killed

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Speaker 2: the LOWVALL star.

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Speaker 4: I agree with that totally. Okay, So they have a

371
00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:18,480
Speaker 4: proliferation of other options problem and you just haven't needed

372
00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:22,200
Speaker 4: them either. Right outside of April, there's been no reason

373
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Speaker 4: to own low voll defensive type strategies.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I just think buffers are more guaranteed. It's

375
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Speaker 2: not guessing. It's like you know when you do that

376
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,640
Speaker 2: machine where you get the football helmet or the piece

377
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 2: of candy from the from the quarter machine. Remember back

378
00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:40,320
Speaker 2: in the day, You're like, I don't know what I'm

379
00:18:40,320 --> 00:18:42,919
Speaker 2: gonna get. Yeah, that's more like lowvall. It'll probably go

380
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:47,200
Speaker 2: down somewhat less. Whereas the buffers they lock in your performance.

381
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,159
Speaker 2: And I think if you're older with a lot of

382
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Speaker 2: money on the line, you'd rather have that guarantee than

383
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:53,720
Speaker 2: just like wing it with lowvall.

384
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Speaker 3: A defined outcome if you will exactly.

385
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Speaker 4: And keep in mind you get three and a half

386
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,919
Speaker 4: to four percent on treasury bills ETFs. Right, why am

387
00:19:02,960 --> 00:19:05,359
Speaker 4: I going to own a low VOLLEYTF that I'm yielding

388
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 4: less and I'm also taking equity risk.

389
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Speaker 2: They're in a bad spot.

390
00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just think it's interesting that they them and

391
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,480
Speaker 4: small kins have just entirely left, you know, left for dead.

392
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 2: Well when you're in those are the reasons, though, I

393
00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:18,920
Speaker 2: mean there are good reasons. They're not market reasons. They're

394
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:20,160
Speaker 2: more structural in it in a way.

395
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Speaker 4: Right, I'd like to.

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Speaker 1: Bring it back to ponies again, Yeah, thank you, which

397
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 1: is if you've won the derby and you've won the Preakness.

398
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:39,920
Speaker 1: What is the Belmont volume? So let's talk about.

399
00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, ETFs are going to trade. ETFs are going to

400
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 2: trade in the neighborhood of sixty trillion dollars worth of

401
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:46,880
Speaker 2: shares this year.

402
00:19:47,119 --> 00:19:47,679
Speaker 1: Yeah.

403
00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:50,600
Speaker 2: Right now they're at fifty three point five. The old

404
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 2: record was in twenty twenty two, right when hell was

405
00:19:53,080 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 2: breaking loose, at forty seven trillion, so third more. Yeah,

406
00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:02,400
Speaker 2: and every category is up, like fixed income, equity, come,

407
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 2: I mean, everything is way higher than it was. So

408
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 2: it's not just like one thing. I will say the

409
00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 2: degend factor. All those two xttfs they're they're they're like

410
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:14,800
Speaker 2: born to trade, so like they definitely had a little kick.

411
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 2: But I just think the reason this number is higher

412
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 2: is because of the flows, which attract more issuers as

413
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 2: Katie mentioned. And if you just have more products and

414
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,920
Speaker 2: more volume and more like big legacy firms trying to

415
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 2: push through ETFs, you just have a bigger tent and

416
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 2: it's more popular. So some of this is just the

417
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:35,040
Speaker 2: expansion of ETFs. I think the degend bit helps a

418
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 2: little bit because people love trading. And I also think

419
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,640
Speaker 2: that honestly, fifty three trillion isn't what it used to be. Droll,

420
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 2: you know, so yeah, I mean the fifty three trillion

421
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:49,879
Speaker 2: today is like ten billion ten years ago. Just kidding,

422
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,000
Speaker 2: it's not that crazy. But like you ever noticed, like

423
00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 2: numbers are just like they're just like this brings it

424
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:55,359
Speaker 2: back to like.

425
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,239
Speaker 1: Could you draw a direct line between the number of

426
00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 1: leverage gtfs and that volume? Is that? Yeah? I mean

427
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 1: I had all these leverage dtfs come out.

428
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 4: That's the trajectory of levered volume, which is either single

429
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:10,440
Speaker 4: stock or the index based ones, is slowly been climbing. Yeah,

430
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 4: and that's just because you're in a bull market, and

431
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,360
Speaker 4: so people like to add on leverage, and whenever there's

432
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:18,400
Speaker 4: a down draft, you see the inverse volume spike. But

433
00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 4: that usage rate has definitely climbed. You think about you know,

434
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,119
Speaker 4: Eric and I we always talk sports. It's a player

435
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,840
Speaker 4: that's being constantly more involved. You can stick with the

436
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:34,440
Speaker 4: horse metaphor or a horse jockey, jockey jockey. He's using

437
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 4: all different horses.

438
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 2: So I can tell you five trillion, So ten percent

439
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 2: of the volume is leverage, which is a lot because

440
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 2: they don't make up leverage makes up one percent of

441
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 2: the assets, ten percent of the volume, which is good

442
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 2: because you don't want people holding the stuff, you want

443
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:49,119
Speaker 2: them to trade it.

444
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,719
Speaker 4: The other interesting aspect is there's other corners that will

445
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 4: pop up every now and then outside of equity and leverage,

446
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 4: like gold. Remember gold, probably six seven weeks ago, gld

447
00:21:59,920 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 4: was doing massive volume and GLDM silver the whole precious

448
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:08,320
Speaker 4: metal spectrum that also contributes to that tally. So what's

449
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 4: happening is when someone needs exposure, whether it's long, short

450
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 4: or an adjustment, you're seeing them go to ETFs more

451
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 4: and more and more, which I think is great for

452
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,680
Speaker 4: the industry. But every now and then you see an

453
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,640
Speaker 4: ETF that a random one pop up in the top

454
00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:21,679
Speaker 4: five to ten most traded.

455
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 2: The other thing is a lot of this volumes coming

456
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,360
Speaker 2: from overseas. I just traveled the world this year pretty much,

457
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 2: and the volume isn't growing as fast as you think

458
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 2: it would overseas. If you are a pension fund in Japan,

459
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 2: let's say you might use EWJ over your own homegrown

460
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 2: Japan ETF, which is weird, right, But these institutions, the

461
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,879
Speaker 2: bigger you are, the more you require deep liquidity. So

462
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 2: the US is kind of like a vampire sucking liquidity

463
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,120
Speaker 2: from all over the world, and it's unfortunate, and there's

464
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 2: certain ways these countries are trying to fight back, but

465
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 2: it's hard because it's just tough. You put out of

466
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 2: like a gold ETF in your country and then this

467
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 2: institution is like, well, GLD trays like four billion a day,

468
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:05,200
Speaker 2: you trade like ten million a day if that, Yeah,

469
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 2: and they don't want to they're gonna be. They're gonna

470
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 2: they're gonna put a forty million position on They're obviously

471
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 2: going to go to the more liquid one.

472
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 3: You're seeing that in listings overall when it comes to

473
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 3: companies as well, that people are listing their companies in

474
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 3: the US because that's where the liquidity is, that's where

475
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 3: the depth of capital markets is. And I feel like,

476
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 3: you know, this is a tentacle of that that you're

477
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 3: seeing the US becoming a vampire of sorts when it

478
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 3: comes to ETFs as well. But I do think that

479
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:32,959
Speaker 3: Toddy make a good point that like the muscle memory

480
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,280
Speaker 3: is just there now, especially in a time of crisis.

481
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 3: That's when you see spy volume spike. For example, people

482
00:23:39,600 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 3: have that blueprint down that the market is in turmoil.

483
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 3: I'm going to go to ETFs because I know I'm

484
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 3: going to get that exposure and it's probably going to

485
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 3: be fairly liquid, at least relative to my other options.

486
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 4: Absolutely, I mean the one inme we didn't talk about.

487
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 4: We's talking about leverage, but the growth of volume and

488
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,719
Speaker 4: launches in other option related categories, drivetive categories, right, optioning,

489
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 4: come FX hedging, all that stuff too, that's definitely contributing

490
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 4: as well. I mean, the options market in terms of

491
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 4: activity is also exploded.

492
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,880
Speaker 1: This has been a big year for options, Katie bring

493
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 1: us home, Yeah, home stretch of the triple crown. What

494
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: do you make of all this and what do you

495
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 1: think twenty twenty six is going to look like?

496
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 3: I do think it's interesting that we haven't talked about

497
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 3: active really at all. I mean, sort of through talking

498
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 3: about all of these options based ETFs, these single stock ETFs,

499
00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:32,199
Speaker 3: those count as active in terms of classification, but they

500
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,159
Speaker 3: aren't traditional stock picking. But it feels like that was

501
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 3: another big story in twenty twenty five, It was the

502
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 3: story in twenty twenty four, and I have to imagine

503
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 3: it'll be a big part of the story in twenty

504
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 3: twenty six as well.

505
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 1: Well. And when you think about that, what was it sixty?

506
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,679
Speaker 1: Was it sixty? New issuers? Like, where's the white space here?

507
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 1: It's got to be mostly active.

508
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, especially when you think of share classes actually arriving

509
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty six. I think that a lot of

510
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 3: your traditional mutual function with their mutual fund lineups, probably

511
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 3: a portion of which is active or going to try

512
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,399
Speaker 3: to grab that ETF lifeline.

513
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 4: Don I think if there are more cuts to interest rates,

514
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 4: perhaps there are down the line. I would keep an

515
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 4: eye on the seven trillion in money market assets, not

516
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,919
Speaker 4: that those are gonna go to stocks, but as Katie mentioned,

517
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,640
Speaker 4: active and an active fixed income because you're gonn want

518
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 4: to get yield somewhere if you're not getting in from

519
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 4: money market funds, and ETFs are the next best way

520
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: to play that.

521
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 2: Also, the ETF share class, if that comes out again,

522
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 2: you're inviting the fox into the henhouse because these clients

523
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 2: who are sitting in this mutual fund, which again it's

524
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 2: like owning a compact disc in terms of technology, they're

525
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 2: gonna want to transfer over to the ETF class. And

526
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,439
Speaker 2: now if they can do it with no text consequence,

527
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 2: this could be a real boon for ETF flows. This

528
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 2: isn't the same as organic sentiment. When you see real

529
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 2: true organic sentiment like a GLD this year, or you know,

530
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 2: like VOU, it's interesting. Some of this BYOA sentiment where

531
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,919
Speaker 2: it comes over isn't quite as interesting. But to nerds

532
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 2: and like people follow in the industry, it's it's very important.

533
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 2: So there could be this drainage from mutual funds into

534
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,080
Speaker 2: ETFs that simply are the legacy managers sort of like

535
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 2: slowly moving their clients over taking the little bit of

536
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 2: cannibalism hit because the ETFs won't charge quite as much

537
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 2: as they used to make, but it helps them like

538
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,440
Speaker 2: be where the fish are biting now and like fight

539
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 2: another day. And this is something that I think will

540
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 2: drive flows and something that Katie wrote about with Capitol Group.

541
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 2: If you look at some of these legacy stock picking

542
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 2: firms from like that were really big in the nineties,

543
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 2: t ROW, Capitol Group, DFA, if you look at their

544
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 2: mutual funds, they see outflows. You look at their ETFs,

545
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 2: they all see inflows. Now, we can't do one for

546
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 2: one there, but clearly there's some cannibalization going on there,

547
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 2: and that I don't know is that active working or

548
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,920
Speaker 2: is that just like the current clients of this active

549
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 2: shop are finally moving over to the new format that's

550
00:26:56,320 --> 00:27:01,880
Speaker 2: different than getting fresh bites. That's why a jetpyr or JPST.

551
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 2: When something is an organic hit, or even the bitcoin ETFs,

552
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,240
Speaker 2: that's why it's so exciting, and we like grab it

553
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 2: like a dog on a bone because I'm like, it's

554
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 2: hard to do this. And by the way, can we

555
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 2: just I want to cover one of the speaking of

556
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 2: organic hits, this guy Bruce Bond. This this billionaire now

557
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: I guess he is.

558
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:22,000
Speaker 4: He's a billionaire.

559
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 2: This guy he built up power shares sold to Investco

560
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,280
Speaker 2: and instead of just like going to retire in an island,

561
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 2: he grew another firm called Innovator, which made the Buffer

562
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 2: ETFs just sold it. Katie reported that he sold it

563
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 2: for two billion dollars. Can you tell us about this deal,

564
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:44,439
Speaker 2: because to me, that's another organic hit that is hard. Yeah.

565
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 3: Well, it sort of loops back to what we were

566
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 3: talking about. With all these upstarts entering the industry, I

567
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 3: have to imagine the Bruce Bond model is kind of inspiring.

568
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 3: How you would want your career to play out if

569
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 3: you're one of these people with an ETF startup. The

570
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 3: fact that he built power shares, he sold that he

571
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,160
Speaker 3: built Innovator just sold to Goldman for two billion dollars,

572
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 3: just identifying a need that people were going to desire

573
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 3: seeing what wasn't yet in the ETF wrapper. I mean,

574
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 3: structured products have been around for a long time, but

575
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 3: Innovator was one of the first to put that into

576
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 3: the ETF wrapper in a way that could be packaged

577
00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 3: and sold and pitched to people. And it's interesting that

578
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:30,360
Speaker 3: Goldman decided to buy Innovator versus try to build it

579
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 3: in house. They do have buffer ETFs, they have three,

580
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 3: i believe, with thirty million in assets, but opted instead

581
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 3: to buy Innovator, which is really an interesting move.

582
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 2: It is and Joel, ten years ago, if I had

583
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 2: told you an active manager is going to come out

584
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 2: with products to charge ninety basis points and they're going

585
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 2: to make a killing and they're going to see quarterly

586
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 2: flows break records every other year, I'm like, that's impossible.

587
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 2: We're in the Vanguardian era. It's impossible. But that's what

588
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:05,640
Speaker 2: he did, and he did it by curing anxiety because

589
00:29:05,680 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 2: these boomers are all nervous as well. Because they made

590
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 2: a ton of money and they don't want to lose

591
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 2: at all.

592
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 1: It's not quite Dejon though, is it.

593
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 2: No? No opposite. This is if djens are looking for

594
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: like adrenaline, these boomers are looking to sleep at night. Yeah,

595
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 2: so they're like, I'll give you a bunch. I'll give

596
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 2: up a lot of upside if you cure my downside.

597
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 2: So I don't feel like worry about it. So Bruce

598
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 2: Bond these if you own the stock market and the

599
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 2: money market fund, some people say like it's is as

600
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 2: good as owning this long term. But the guarantee is powerful,

601
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 2: and I think the emotions and psychology of investors are

602
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 2: underlooked here. The other thing I will say is Goldman

603
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 2: has been pretty quiet since Brian Lake joined. Now, Brian

604
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 2: Lake is the driver of JEPY. I mean, he came

605
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,040
Speaker 2: out with the two biggest active funds on the planet

606
00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,000
Speaker 2: and he went to Goldman and he like disappeared. Hadn't

607
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 2: heard from him in a while. This is interesting. I

608
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 2: feel we'll have some other big news from Goldman. But

609
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 2: get this, even with this acquisition, twenty eight billion dollar firm,

610
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: Goldman moved from seventeenth place to fifteenth place. Think about it.

611
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 2: You're Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest brands in the world.

612
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: You've been in the ETF market fifteen years. You just

613
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 2: bought a firm for two billion dollars and you still

614
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 2: a point five percent market share. That's how brutal this

615
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 2: industry is. Droll, and that's how big Vanguard and black

616
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,600
Speaker 2: Rock are, by the way, I mean, it's just the

617
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 2: numbers are staggering. It's like when you look at like

618
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 2: the planets and you see like Earth and Neptune. They

619
00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 2: put Jupiter on there and you're like, oh my god.

620
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 2: Like it's just another level of these big firms, and

621
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 2: it just shows you how tough this industry is. But

622
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,479
Speaker 2: the reason it's so tough is because the products are

623
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 2: also good, are pretty competitive, and the investors like it.

624
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 2: So it's hell for issuers, heaven for investors.

625
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 4: Final thought, I mean, good job of you on that reporting, Katie.

626
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 4: It was a team effort and with Emily two right,

627
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 4: it was.

628
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 3: Me, Emily GRIFFEO and Todd Gillespie.

629
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 4: I think this is very bullish ETFs the go along

630
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:02,480
Speaker 4: with the triple Crown. I'm very curious to see now

631
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 4: do other asset managers start looking to that mid to

632
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 4: lower tier for interesting issuers out there.

633
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 1: I think so Tony she's from.

634
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:14,120
Speaker 2: I mean, we've long felt that the asset management industry

635
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 2: in ten twenty years from now will look like the airlines.

636
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 2: There'll be three gigantic brands owning seventy five percent of

637
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 2: all the assets, basically black Rock, Vanguard and State Street

638
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 2: plus like ten of the isshoers. And then they'll be

639
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 2: like real specialty niche like Alaska Air or like Costa

640
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 2: Rica Air.

641
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 1: Sounds like a bunch of large caps and small caps.

642
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: Oh see what I did there?

643
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 2: I don't know. I don't know if that was a zinger.

644
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 2: I'm not sure what that was all right, But all

645
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 2: I do know is consolidation is coming.

646
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 1: It has to, yep, exactly, Todd Katie, thanks for joining

647
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 1: us in Tricks.

648
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 4: Thanks thanks a lot, great to pet with the guys.

649
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Tricks until next time. You can

650
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 1: find us on the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

651
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Speaker 1: or wherever else you'd like to listen. We'd love to

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Speaker 1: hear from you. Hit us up on Social. Trillions is

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Speaker 1: produced by Magnus Hendrickson and Ryan Kessler. Amy Keane is

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Speaker 1: our executive producer. Sage Bauman is the head of Bloomberg Podcasts.

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Speaker 1: O Bye Boom Boo