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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: It is time for us to take a look at

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Speaker 1: the week that was in Week three of the NFL

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Speaker 1: and see who we need to be adjusting in our

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Speaker 1: power rankings moving forward. As always, I'm Thomas Yola and

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Speaker 1: joining me is none other than the Oracle himself, Matthew Friedman.

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Speaker 1: And today we have another very special guest here joining

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Speaker 1: us from PFF data scientist Kevin Cole. Kevin, how are

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Speaker 1: you doing today?

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Speaker 2: I'm doing well. Thank you for having me. It's good

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Speaker 2: to be on here with the Oracle. Are there other

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Speaker 2: oracles floating around out there? Impostors I would call them.

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Speaker 3: I would say, there are some oracles, Greeks, some oracles,

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Speaker 3: but they aren't the the Oracle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you have it literally in your in your Twitter handle,

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Speaker 2: the Orca.

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Speaker 4: So it must be real. It must be real.

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Speaker 5: That's how it works.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: If I could go back ten years and tell myself, hey,

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Speaker 3: pick a different Twitter handle, I probably would. The thing is,

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Speaker 3: even at the time, I couldn't get any different, like versions,

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Speaker 3: any iterations of my name, so I just kind of

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Speaker 3: went with what was there?

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Speaker 5: So, you know, like io state is it is?

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Speaker 4: It?

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Speaker 2: A similar sort of situation when you when when you

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Speaker 2: call it out, Yeah, it's.

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Speaker 3: Just it wasn't there. So anyway, Kevin, it's awesome to

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Speaker 3: be on a show with you again. Uh you know,

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Speaker 3: like we're going way back in the time machine. We

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Speaker 3: were together on the Numbers Game podcast it wrote aviz,

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Speaker 3: which had like great iterations of hosting teams because uh,

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Speaker 3: Nick Giffin was was on that at one point I

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Speaker 3: don't remember, were you with Giffin? And then I was yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 3: And then after that it was Giffen with the guy

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Speaker 3: who is now at PFF with you, Josh Hermsmeyer doing

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Speaker 3: the air Yards model.

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Speaker 4: So that was that was a really a really good show.

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, way back in the day, long before the

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Speaker 2: Twitter thread economy started, where that's how we consume all

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Speaker 2: of our information now is no podcasts, no websites, just

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Speaker 2: Twitter threads. How we get paid, I'm not quite sure,

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Speaker 2: but that's just how that's how all information will be

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Speaker 2: disseminated from here on forward.

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Speaker 1: Well, we're going to be converting this podcast into a

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Speaker 1: Twitter thread for everybody then.

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Speaker 5: Thinking ahead, thank you ahead. I like that.

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Speaker 1: Now let's get started here, and Kevin, one of the

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Speaker 1: big tools that you use at PFF is adjusted scoring.

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Speaker 1: You have your adjusted scores for every game come out

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Speaker 1: after the weeks and and for example, this week, according

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Speaker 1: to you, the Chiefs actually beat the Colts. I want

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Speaker 1: to ask you about that. But to start us off here,

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Speaker 1: for those that don't know what is adjusted scoring, how

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Speaker 1: are you arriving at these scores?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the idea originally came from listening to

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Speaker 2: a professional better Rufus Peabody, who some of you may know.

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Speaker 2: He worked with Kate Massey on Massy Peabody where they

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Speaker 2: would put out power rankings for college and for NFL teams.

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Speaker 2: I had the pleasure of meeting him a few times.

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Speaker 2: He's been on my own podcast, Unexpected Points, So i'll

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Speaker 2: plug that right here. Well, we're here my own podcast

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Speaker 2: a couple of times before, and he has these things

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Speaker 2: we call game grades, which is somewhat similar. It's trying

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Speaker 2: to adjust and downweigh the least stable elements of play

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Speaker 2: and then give a little bit more waiting to those

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Speaker 2: that are most stable. Now mine is probably a little

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Speaker 2: bit simplified version of what he was doing, but it

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Speaker 2: gives a little bit more waiting to success rate, which

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Speaker 2: is on a play by play basis whether or not

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Speaker 2: a team is being successful, which will tell you, for

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Speaker 2: the most part, teams that are generally successful continue to

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Speaker 2: be generally successful more often than teams that have high

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Speaker 2: efficiency continue to have high efficiency going forward. So it's

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Speaker 2: using that a little bit more than actual efficiency. There

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Speaker 2: are a few other wrinkles that go into it, as

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Speaker 2: far as downweighing. Special teams play a little bit more

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Speaker 2: than what you'd expect, looking at the number of fumbles,

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Speaker 2: especially those that are not recovered by the player who fumbled,

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Speaker 2: and then coming out with an assumption for how many

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Speaker 2: of those should be recovered by their own team versus not,

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Speaker 2: and then bringing in some of the PFF statistics too,

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Speaker 2: as far as drop passes, turn over with the plays

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Speaker 2: that don't end up, interceptions and vice versa, and then

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Speaker 2: making adjustments to the overall score to come out with

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Speaker 2: a better score that tells us how this game would

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Speaker 2: sustainably play out if these teams were playing fundamentally the

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Speaker 2: same way they played in these games going forward. Now

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Speaker 2: for some fans, and I was giving it to the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs fans a little bit, because they got very mad

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Speaker 2: at me when I said the Chargers were a better

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Speaker 2: team the last Thursday Night in week two that I

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Speaker 2: was a little tongue in cheek congratulating them on their

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Speaker 2: adjusted win this week because they were the better team

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Speaker 2: here even though they lost, and not surprising to say,

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Speaker 2: they were not happy with either of those. So no

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Speaker 2: matter what side, if I tell you you're better than

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Speaker 2: you thought, you were not happy. If I tell you

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Speaker 2: you were worse when you won, not happy. So I'm

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Speaker 2: just I'm bringing everyone together though in the fact that

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Speaker 2: they do not enjoy hearing about my adjusted scores if

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Speaker 2: they had a bad game for their team.

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Speaker 3: And now it's time for us to end the show

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Speaker 3: because Kevin talked for it for five minutes.

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Speaker 5: This is great.

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Speaker 4: I love it.

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Speaker 3: By the way, I want to say the Unexpected Points

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Speaker 3: podcast one of my favorites. I listened to every episode.

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Speaker 3: Actually love the Monday episode where you break down all

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Speaker 3: of the games from Sunday. That is a fantastic episode.

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Speaker 3: Definitely never missed that one. And yeah, I will say

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Speaker 3: anytime Tom or anyone out there listening, anytime you ask

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Speaker 3: Kevin a question about like, hey, can you give me

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Speaker 3: a little details about what goes into this.

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Speaker 4: Model of yours?

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Speaker 3: Just like expect like five solid minutes of an answer.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, ask me for an elevator pitch next time.

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Speaker 2: Plus I do my podcast solo, So maybe I'm just

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Speaker 2: in the business.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 5: A lot of people say to me. They always say,

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Speaker 5: they say, like, how do you do it?

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Speaker 2: Like how do you go on for forty five minutes

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Speaker 2: an hour and a half, And the fact that I

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Speaker 2: don't find it to be that difficult probably reflects poorly

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Speaker 2: on me as opposed to being a positive.

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Speaker 1: Ok Okay, hang on, I just have to say here, Matt,

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Speaker 1: saying that you're monologuing too much in your answers is

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Speaker 1: just hurling boulders from atop his giant glass house.

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Speaker 5: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, at least I'm not writing. I keep my writing

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Speaker 2: brief because I hate it. And yeah, that'd be the

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Speaker 2: last person where the guy could talk. The guy could

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Speaker 2: write like three thousand words on basically anything. That's why

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Speaker 2: I'm glad that he got into the editor in chiefy

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Speaker 2: sort of business as opposed to the writer business or else.

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Speaker 2: You know that they were just they're killing so many

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Speaker 2: trees basically out there on a daily basis.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we had a show yesterday that people should really

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Speaker 1: check out because it is still early enough in the week.

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Speaker 1: The look Ahead show here for betting pros. Joe Pisapa

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Speaker 1: sits down with Matt and Pat fitz Morris and I

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Speaker 1: and they take a look at all of the look

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Speaker 1: aheadlines for the next week, what you should be betting early,

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Speaker 1: what you should be betting late on. So hint, hint, go

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Speaker 1: check out that show after you're done here. But I

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Speaker 1: in the one who has to go and edit that

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Speaker 1: show after it's done. And every single time Matt starts talking,

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Speaker 1: I'm skipping ahead like four minutes to get to the

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Speaker 1: end of the sentence.

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Speaker 3: So that's that's is factually incorrect. I keep my takes

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Speaker 3: very tight. Yeah, go on for another couple of minutes

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Speaker 3: to tell you about how tight those takes are.

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Speaker 4: But I'm just gonna stop now.

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Speaker 2: You listen to your podcast at four x so that

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Speaker 2: problem has something to do with your You're really not

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Speaker 2: upset about like if my monologue there lasted about like

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Speaker 2: thirty seven seconds when you're listening to it back on

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Speaker 2: your on your podcast app.

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Speaker 1: He is a podcast power listener. But my question for

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Speaker 1: you here, in addition to getting the entire Twitter fan

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Speaker 1: base of any team pissed off at you. What How

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Speaker 1: are the adjusted scores useful for people? How is it

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Speaker 1: that I can take those and say, Okay, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: use this as a tool to make more informed bets

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Speaker 1: for next week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean I've found that it is more

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Speaker 2: predictive than score differential if you look at adjusted score

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Speaker 2: differential going forward.

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Speaker 5: So that is one way.

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Speaker 2: It is a good way if you are like me

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Speaker 2: and you combine in your power rankings a prior, a

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Speaker 2: preseason idea of how good a thing, how good a

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Speaker 2: team is going to be, and then you're gonna take

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Speaker 2: the evidence from within the season. So this is my

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Speaker 2: preferred metric to look at the evidence that we're gaining

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Speaker 2: throughout the season and then adjusting off of the prior going.

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Speaker 5: Forward to predict.

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Speaker 2: And that's the way that I go about trying to

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Speaker 2: just figure out a power ranking. And most of the

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Speaker 2: time my power ranking, like a lot of people, it's

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Speaker 2: not different as far as how I frame it would

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Speaker 2: be how much you expect the team to win or

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Speaker 2: lose by if they were playing a league average team

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Speaker 2: on a neutral field.

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Speaker 5: So I use this to build into that formula.

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Speaker 4: Okay, I have a follow up on that.

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Speaker 3: So you just mentioned, you know, your your power ratings

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Speaker 3: and how you are using adjusted game scores instead of

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Speaker 3: point differential to kind of inform the ways in which

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Speaker 3: you are making adjustments to your power ratings during the season.

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Speaker 3: What are some of the other factors in addition to

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Speaker 3: adjusted game scores that would maybe impact how you make

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Speaker 3: adjustments Because I think a lot of people would look

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Speaker 3: at you know, on a basic level, like the most

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Speaker 3: basic level would be like yards per play, or it

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Speaker 3: would be epa per play or success rate some of

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Speaker 3: the you know, some of the things that you talk

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Speaker 3: about on your show. What are the things other than

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Speaker 3: like the kind of big picture adjusted point differential that

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Speaker 3: impact how you make adjustments to teams?

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Speaker 5: Sure?

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Speaker 2: Sure, I mean a strength of schedule, right, So, like

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Speaker 2: these numbers in and of themselves, when I'm giving them off,

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Speaker 2: are not taking into account how the opponents are playing. Again,

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Speaker 2: we don't have a lot of evidence going in here,

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Speaker 2: So it's somewhat of a prior that I have for

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Speaker 2: offensive or defensive strengths for these teams combined with the

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Speaker 2: evidence that they have, and then you can figure out

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Speaker 2: the more combinations we have of teams as the season

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Speaker 2: goes on, we can get a better idea of how

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Speaker 2: to actually adjust off of strength of schedule, So that's going.

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Speaker 5: To be a big one.

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Speaker 2: Pace is another one where I try to have the

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Speaker 2: adjusted score incorporate pace of that particular game into it.

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Speaker 2: So if it was a high scoring game because it

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Speaker 2: was being played at a high pace, then that's going

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Speaker 2: to be reflected there. But you don't want to transfer

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Speaker 2: that forward because what if this high paced team is

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Speaker 2: now playing a low paced team as they're going forward.

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Speaker 2: So I do like to try to normalize that a

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Speaker 2: little bit, and it would be different if you're looking

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Speaker 2: at totals and.

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Speaker 5: Things like that.

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Speaker 2: Of course you want to get an idea of the

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Speaker 2: high paced teams versus the low paced teams, but that's

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Speaker 2: only on one side of the equation. Whereas the adjusted

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Speaker 2: scores are going to be affected by the opponent also,

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Speaker 2: so we want to make adjustments for that. But those

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Speaker 2: are really the two main things that make adjustments with

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Speaker 2: going forward there and then injuries, if there are any injuries,

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Speaker 2: quarterbacks are really going to be the only significant mover.

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Speaker 2: And then outside of that, I used to make adjustments

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Speaker 2: on a individualized player notion, but now I've really switched

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Speaker 2: off to clustering and just looking at position groups where

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Speaker 2: you have more than one injury and then trying to

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Speaker 2: make an adjustment based upon that. I found that it

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Speaker 2: was just a lot of work and it wasn't really

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Speaker 2: adding enough juice to justify the squeeze to try to

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Speaker 2: do a player by player move where we didn't have

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Speaker 2: a particular unit with multiple injuries.

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Speaker 1: Now, speaking of clustering, the Jacksonville Jaguars were a massive

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Speaker 1: cluster last year, and how have you been changing them

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Speaker 1: coming into this season now? Because they've just been ripping

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Speaker 1: off win after win here through three weeks. Are they

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Speaker 1: moving up your rankings? Do you think that this is

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Speaker 1: a team that's going to be able to stick around

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Speaker 1: at this level or are you looking at them and

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Speaker 1: saying US is going to slow down? How are you addressed?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's going to slow down, but

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Speaker 2: that's not a you know, that's not a negative necessarily

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Speaker 2: for a team that is two in one was a

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Speaker 2: couple of Carson Wentz late touchdowns away from being three

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Speaker 2: and oh right now and just went into Los Angeles

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Speaker 2: and you know, put a legitimate SmackDown. This was one

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Speaker 2: of these ones where you look at the adjustice scorer

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Speaker 2: afterwards and it was fairly close to the actual score,

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Speaker 2: and you don't see that that often when it's a

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Speaker 2: twenty eight point differential in a game.

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Speaker 5: Here, yeah, you can.

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Speaker 2: Discount it probably a little bit because of Herbert's injury.

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Speaker 2: But it was really the other side of the ball

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Speaker 2: that surprised me more than anything in this game. I

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Speaker 2: think the Chargers have a legit defense, and I think

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Speaker 2: this was a healthy defense that they had here. So

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Speaker 2: the fact that they protected Lawrence so well and they

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Speaker 2: were able to play so well on that side of

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Speaker 2: the ball was a bit surprising. But for them, there's

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Speaker 2: a couple of different factors. I still answers I still

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Speaker 2: want from them. Lawrence didn't play that well in Week one.

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Speaker 2: He was under decent amount of pressure in week ones,

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Speaker 2: around a forty percent pressure rates. Then the pressure rate's

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Speaker 2: been very low, and part of it is that the

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Speaker 2: offensive line is really that good or is this something

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Speaker 2: that might regress as they're going forward?

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Speaker 5: So how does he perform under pressure? And the second

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Speaker 5: thing is running the ball.

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Speaker 2: Their success rate has actually been the worst in the

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Speaker 2: league running the ball so far now, but they've had

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Speaker 2: a lot of big plays, and an example of that

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Speaker 2: would be we've seen multiple thirty plus yard touchdown runs

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Speaker 2: from James Robinson, and I would not be surprised if

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Speaker 2: you go the entire rest of the season and see

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Speaker 2: zero those.

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Speaker 5: That's probably the most likely outcomes.

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Speaker 2: We see zero of those the entire rest of the season,

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Speaker 2: so that's something to think about as far as their

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Speaker 2: success has been concerned this season.

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Speaker 1: dot com for details. And how about the How about

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Speaker 1: another team that's been surprising that's a perennial doormat here?

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Speaker 1: The Lions? We are they're the third high scoring offense

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Speaker 1: in the league right now, if I'm not mistaken here?

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Speaker 1: Who saw this coming?

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Speaker 4: Was it you?

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Speaker 2: Well?

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Speaker 5: I was, I got one of these traps.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you guys getting these traps where

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Speaker 2: the Lions became a very popular team for people to

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Speaker 2: be rooting four, So then I would like to root

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Speaker 2: for them too, but everyone else is rooting for them,

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Speaker 2: so then I have to, you know, my my contrarian

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Speaker 2: brain disease comes into play where I end up being like, oh, well,

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Speaker 2: we got to slow down, we got to slow down

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Speaker 2: on the Lions, And I do think there was an

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Speaker 2: element of needing to slow down. I was surprised like

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Speaker 2: everyone else if you looked at the win totals going

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Speaker 2: into the season, and they don't play in the easiest division,

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Speaker 2: but still the win totals going to the season or

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Speaker 2: market derived power rankings, I mean, they were in the

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Speaker 2: bottom five for these and now as far as how

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Speaker 2: they played this year, I have them being more like

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Speaker 2: a league average ish, if slightly better team so far

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Speaker 2: this year.

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Speaker 5: So I am a little bit surprised.

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Speaker 2: At the same time, I feel like Jared goff is,

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Speaker 2: you know, he's a functional quarterback in the right system,

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Speaker 2: and this seems to be playing well there. The defense

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Speaker 2: has been really, really bad, so I guess maybe that's

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Speaker 2: not that a surprise. As they say, continue to not

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Speaker 2: be playing that well on that side of the ball,

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Speaker 2: and on the offensive side of things. They also had

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Speaker 2: a little bit of this big play ish sort of

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Speaker 2: factor going forward. They were running going into Week two,

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Speaker 2: they were averaging over seven yards per carry. They were

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Speaker 2: averaging almost four yards or I think in some by

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Speaker 2: some metrics over four yards before contact. So those things

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Speaker 2: are not stable. But even without those, they're playing high

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Speaker 2: above expectation. So I think this can continue going forward,

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Speaker 2: because again, I believe in Jared Goff as long as

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Speaker 2: you have I maybe don't clip that, but I believe

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Speaker 2: with Jared Goff as long as you have the right

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Speaker 2: pieces around him that you can get, you know, league

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Speaker 2: average of sort of quarterback play, and they have some

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Speaker 2: good pieces around it. As long as I'm on roun

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Speaker 2: St Brown and other guys can stay healthy this season.

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Speaker 3: All right, Kevin, you just talked about the Jags and

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Speaker 3: the Lions here, and you know, I'm looking at my

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Speaker 3: preseason power ratings, looking at the power ratings I have

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Speaker 3: now versus the Lions. Which of those teams would you

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Speaker 3: say is actually better now like in your current power ratings,

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Speaker 3: because I would think that they are probably close to even,

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Speaker 3: you know, and I wouldn't have thought that at the

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Speaker 3: beginning of the season. I was pretty high on the Lions,

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Speaker 3: pretty low on the Jags and the Jags. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they're the team I've moved up the most, uh in

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Speaker 3: my power ratings since the season started.

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Speaker 4: Uh.

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Speaker 3: But you know, right now those two teams are pretty even.

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Speaker 3: What do you think about them in terms of a

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Speaker 3: head to head comparison, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 2: Have them right next with each other. I have the

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Speaker 2: Lions slightly higher than the Jags so far.

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Speaker 5: I don't know, maybe I need.

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Speaker 2: To adjust off of some of this for for the Jaguars,

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Speaker 2: but I'm also, you know, slightly low on these on

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Speaker 2: these teams generally. I mean, so far this season, the

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Speaker 2: Jags have been better than the Lions and the numbers

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Speaker 2: that I put together, So I had the Lions being

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Speaker 2: better going into the season, and they've and they've come

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Speaker 2: together now, but we're still talking about below average for me,

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Speaker 2: and maybe a little bit more needs to be proven.

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Speaker 2: Although I have been accused in the past of holding

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Speaker 2: on to priors to too strongly, so that could be

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Speaker 2: a case if you're updating based on priors a little

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Speaker 2: bit more quickly, and I think that has actually been

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Speaker 2: I've been testing this a little bit, like because you

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Speaker 2: want to incorporate as much data as possible, but I

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Speaker 2: think priors were stronger in the past than they have

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Speaker 2: been recently with the change, especially on a year by

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Speaker 2: year of quarterback play that you're not that have been

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Speaker 2: out of the range of expectations. I mean, for instance,

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Speaker 2: like Mahomes and Lamar winning MVP and the Herbert jumping forward,

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Speaker 2: like those things didn't really happen that much in the past,

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Speaker 2: those big sort of jumps for MVP in second year.

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Speaker 2: So if you're adjusting that a little more quickly, I

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Speaker 2: could see them both being, you know, maybe slightly above average,

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Speaker 2: but I have them on the other side of average

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Speaker 2: at this point.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you there. I have them near average,

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Speaker 3: but still a little bit below average. And you know,

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Speaker 3: as you said, like holding on to priors, maybe a

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Speaker 3: little too strongly. I don't want to adjust too aggressively

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Speaker 3: based on what we've seen in a three game sample.

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Speaker 3: But that said, you know, I know the situation with Jacksonville,

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Speaker 3: wide range of outcomes there, and so with them, I'm

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Speaker 3: a little more willing to move them up aggressively given

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Speaker 3: the uncertainty there.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, no, I think that makes sense.

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Speaker 2: And you know, Lawrences gave one he kind of looked

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Speaker 2: a little bit like.

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Speaker 5: Rookie year Lawrence. We'll see, we'll see if that comes

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Speaker 5: back or not.

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Speaker 1: I think, I mean, when you factor in that below

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Speaker 1: average is still a very massive positive step in the

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Speaker 1: right direction for both of these teams. Who would have

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Speaker 1: thought that urban Meyer was the problem the entire time

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Speaker 1: in Jacksonville never would have guessed.

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Speaker 5: That, not urban Meyer, but everyone else probably, but not

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Speaker 5: urban Meyer. I can guarantee that.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, another team here who surprised me not so much

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Speaker 1: this week, the Bengals. They get to win over the

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Speaker 1: Jets to end their slump. That very much I saw coming.

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Speaker 1: What I didn't see coming was the fact that the

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Speaker 1: Bengals would be in this position where they were getting

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Speaker 1: their first win in week three over the Jets and

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Speaker 1: still I mean, looking better. But it's the Jets. I

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Speaker 1: kind of expect you to look that good no matter

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Speaker 1: who who you are. How surprised to you by the

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Speaker 1: Bengals poor start? And do you think that this is

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Speaker 1: the start of them getting back on track? Or is

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Speaker 1: it just that the t Neck football team could beat

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Speaker 1: the Jets?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean maybe I'll say I'll say to the

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Speaker 2: last part of the question, but I'm not surprised that

443
00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:23,240
Speaker 2: their perception has decreased coming off of a run to

444
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,920
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl, where my power speaking is power rankings

445
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,080
Speaker 2: from last season had them as maybe a slightly above

446
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,040
Speaker 2: average team and they made it all the way to

447
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 2: the super Bowl, So I was getting, you know, they

448
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,359
Speaker 2: were handing it to me on a weekly basis as

449
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 2: they continue to win and continue to, at least offensively,

450
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:40,320
Speaker 2: not play particularly well during that entire stretch. So I'm

451
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 2: not surprised that they're down on this, but this was

452
00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 2: a stretch in the season in a tough division where

453
00:19:45,760 --> 00:19:48,200
Speaker 2: they have to be accumulating w's against these teams and

454
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,440
Speaker 2: they're not, so that is a bit surprising. Their defense

455
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,359
Speaker 2: has played well, really well so far this season, so

456
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:56,800
Speaker 2: I think that's a positive sign for them. But then again,

457
00:19:57,320 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 2: you know you want you're facing Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush,

458
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:02,160
Speaker 2: and Joe Flacco.

459
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 5: How much do you put into it. I'm not quite sure.

460
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 2: And I think offensively they've been a lot better than

461
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 2: what the EPA type of numbers would would tell you.

462
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,520
Speaker 2: And again, it's like a flip of last season where

463
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 2: they were making all of these outlier big plays that

464
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,919
Speaker 2: were boosting everything up, and this season it's turnovers.

465
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 5: It sacks.

466
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 2: It's outlier negative plays without any of those explosive plays.

467
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,120
Speaker 2: So the question for me is, with the talent they

468
00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:27,320
Speaker 2: have on offense, do you think those explosive plays will

469
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:29,160
Speaker 2: come back or not? How confident are you that that's

470
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,639
Speaker 2: going to happen. I'm confident they can play above average

471
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,119
Speaker 2: in that area. So I'm relatively high on them, But

472
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,640
Speaker 2: that's with the idea that the perception is way down

473
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:37,400
Speaker 2: on them right now.

474
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 1: This offensive line really surprised me. But Matt, what have

475
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 1: you thought about the Bangles so far?

476
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I've downgraded them a little bit in

477
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,120
Speaker 3: the Power ratings. I think a lot of what Kevin said,

478
00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,360
Speaker 3: you know, rings true to how it is that I've

479
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:54,879
Speaker 3: perceived this team. I thought they that they would be

480
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 3: not as good as they appeared to be, as their

481
00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:03,439
Speaker 3: record would indicate, you know. But the offensive line, I

482
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 3: think it's going to ultimately at the end of the

483
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,919
Speaker 3: season be better than last year's offensive line. But you know,

484
00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:11,880
Speaker 3: continuity is really important at offensive line.

485
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 4: And they don't have it.

486
00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:16,120
Speaker 3: And so even though individually the players are better, they

487
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 3: still need time to coalesce as a unit.

488
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,040
Speaker 4: So I have bumped them down. I still think.

489
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 3: They're an above average team. I would say, you know

490
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 3: they're in that if you want to have them and

491
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:29,200
Speaker 3: say like eight to fourteen range. I think that's probably

492
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 3: the right range of where you should have them ranked.

493
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 3: But like I do have them pretty cleanly outside of

494
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 3: that top tier of teams at this point, Like I

495
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 3: didn't think that they should belong there, and now I

496
00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,040
Speaker 3: definitely do not think they should belong there.

497
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,760
Speaker 1: Now a team that is moving up my rankings ever

498
00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 1: so slightly. They were the favorites to have the worst

499
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:53,639
Speaker 1: record going into this season, the Atlanta Falcons. I didn't

500
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,360
Speaker 1: see this here. I figured, you look at Seattle and

501
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,800
Speaker 1: that's a team that's worse to me than Atlanta, And

502
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 1: sure enough, Atlanta goes into Seattle beats them this weekend.

503
00:22:04,240 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: I'm not saying this team's going to the playoffs, but

504
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,760
Speaker 1: they're not worst team in the league bad to me,

505
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 1: as many were predicting. Do you think it's time to

506
00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 1: start paying attention to them? Especially against Cleveland this week?

507
00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 1: I feel like this is a spot where they're a

508
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,679
Speaker 1: plucky team and Cleveland's not really going to be able

509
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 1: to put them away.

510
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 2: If they weren't playing Cleveland, I'd probably be more interested

511
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:25,679
Speaker 2: because Cleveland's been one of the Biggert surprisers for me

512
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,639
Speaker 2: as far as how well that they've played this year.

513
00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:32,120
Speaker 5: Although I would have assumed coming.

514
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 2: Into the season that Marcus Mariota would play as well

515
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 2: or better than Jacoby Brissett's go going into the season,

516
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 2: I was probably higher on Marcus Mariota. Maybe it's just

517
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 2: like the never ending, never dying takes that happen. And

518
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 2: I'm going back to my twenty fifteen draft grades and

519
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 2: just getting excited about Marcus Mariota again. And if you

520
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:51,720
Speaker 2: think about it, the Falcons could have been even better

521
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 2: this year.

522
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 5: I mean, they just gave away that game.

523
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 2: If Marcus Mariota can learn how to hold onto a

524
00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 2: football in a critical situation at the end of the game,

525
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 2: he tried to give away the the Seahawks game even

526
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 2: this last week. And I think part of the perception

527
00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 2: here with Atlanta, which is sometimes there's like not this

528
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 2: linear type of improvement with teams, is I think we

529
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 2: view the Falcons as being a tanking rebuild team. But

530
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,360
Speaker 2: this is you know, this is second year that Arthur

531
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:22,159
Speaker 2: Smith has been there, so while they've been reshuffling the

532
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 2: decks and trying to clear cap space for a couple

533
00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,640
Speaker 2: couple of years. This is not necessarily the season where

534
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 2: they would be at their nadier it would have been

535
00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 2: last season. They have been trying to build, cobble together something.

536
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,639
Speaker 2: So I think that foundation has also helped. I mean,

537
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,200
Speaker 2: players like Kyle Pitt's going into their second season, Drake

538
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:39,199
Speaker 2: London being there, it's a huge, huge difference as compared

539
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 2: to what they had last year. And then Marcus Mariota,

540
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,719
Speaker 2: I think, you know, is probably an upgrade over what

541
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 2: we saw from from Matt Ryan and certainly from what.

542
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 5: We see from Matt Ryan so far this season.

543
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's interesting Mariota looking right now at

544
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:57,919
Speaker 3: running backs don't Matter or RBS, Tom, the people who

545
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 3: don't know Mario, he's he's top ten if you're looking

546
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 3: at composite, EPA and CPOE, you know, like it's it's

547
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 3: a small sample and you have to take him into account.

548
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:11,719
Speaker 3: You know that he just played the Seahawks, so that

549
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,199
Speaker 3: helps a lot. But you know, going against the Saints,

550
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 3: going against the Rams in weeks one and two, like

551
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 3: those are tougher opponents, and the fact that he's been

552
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 3: able to have that kind of output I mean, we've

553
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 3: seen the Falcons have I believe, you know, twenty six

554
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 3: twenty seven points in all three games so far. Like

555
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 3: that is not a fake offense. Who knows if they're

556
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 3: able to sustain. But I've been impressed with what I've

557
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 3: seen so far because offense drives so much of what

558
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 3: we should expect to see week over week out of teams. Like, yeah,

559
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 3: I don't have the like I entered the season thinking

560
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 3: that this was the worst team in the league, and

561
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:49,959
Speaker 3: now I can say, like, Okay, they're not a bottom

562
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 3: three team, Like I mean, I'm not gonna like move

563
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 3: them up to average, but like they are significantly better

564
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:55,679
Speaker 3: than I thought they would be.

565
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's more of moving them up into being

566
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:03,360
Speaker 2: in the mid twent maybe somewhere, you know, very mid twenties.

567
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 5: I get it.

568
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:06,440
Speaker 2: I'll get much higher than that than being near near

569
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 2: the very bottom for me. And yeah, you mentioned offensively, Yeah,

570
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,000
Speaker 2: they played the Seahawks. According my Justice score for them

571
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 2: was thirty two points. So but even if you're playing

572
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 2: a bad defense, good offenses put up big points against

573
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 2: bad defenses. So that again, I don't just throw it

574
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: out the window when something like happens that again, is

575
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 2: more evidence that the offense is it could be legitimately good.

576
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:27,879
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587
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Speaker 1: cash some tickets together to the show.

588
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 4: Now.

589
00:26:02,280 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 1: We've already talked a little bit about the Jaguars here,

590
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: but this week they're playing the Eagles, and then I

591
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: think it's got everybody intrigued, which is not what we

592
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 1: would have said going into this game at the start

593
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: of the season. How high are the Eagles moving up

594
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 1: your ranks at three to zero and what do you

595
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: think happens this week?

596
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:19,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Eagles have moved up quite a

597
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 2: bit because it's not only what they did last season

598
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 2: with the with the offense running the ball, they're bringing

599
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: in the passing efficiency, They're bringing in a ton of

600
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,880
Speaker 2: pressure that they that they brought the last two games.

601
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:33,439
Speaker 2: I mean, some of it was Carson Wentz, but it

602
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 2: was comical if you're like me and the Maryland area

603
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 2: and that game was on TV. He was just getting

604
00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 2: sacked every five seconds and in that game. And I

605
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 2: don't think it's necessarily fluky that they can bring a

606
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 2: lot of pressure because we saw them do it the

607
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 2: week before when it came to Kirk Cousins in there.

608
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 2: Now where the movement rank is, this is another one

609
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 2: that is very sensitive because I have them being around

610
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 2: the second best team so far this year, very close

611
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 2: to the same ranking as far as how they've played

612
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 2: this year along with the Miami Dolphins, still below the

613
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:05,959
Speaker 2: Buffalo Bills to me, despite the fact that the Bills

614
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 2: lost to Miami and then I'm moving them up off

615
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 2: of a team that was in the you know, the

616
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 2: bottom half of the top ten. So I do think

617
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 2: they are broaching into the top ten now, but I

618
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 2: still have them around you know, seven to eight sort

619
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 2: of area as opposed to maybe being a bit higher.

620
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 2: And you know the power ranking complex that goes throughout media,

621
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 2: you see three and zero and you have to put

622
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 2: them above the team that's two and one a little

623
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 2: bit too often.

624
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:32,439
Speaker 3: I think, Okay, Kevin, I love that you. You talked

625
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 3: kind of specifically about Okay, they've had a great season,

626
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 3: and so if you're if you're evaluating them just on

627
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 3: the basis of how they've performed through three games, you

628
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 3: would maybe think, Okay, this is a top three team,

629
00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 3: but because of the priors, you have to adjust them.

630
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 3: And so I want to walk through a little bit

631
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 3: like thinking about where they are, and I'll say, you know,

632
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 3: thinking about them in relation to Jacksonville. Those are the

633
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 3: two teams that week over week and from the beginning

634
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,960
Speaker 3: of the season that I have moved up most in

635
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 3: my power ratings, and so my projected spread for them

636
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 3: really hasn't changed all that much because they both kind

637
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 3: of moved up and even measure. But the Eagles here

638
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 3: thinking about the AFC, sorry not the AFC, the NFC here.

639
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 3: Now I have them below the Packers. I still have

640
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 3: them below the Buccaneers. I have them very marginally below

641
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 3: the Rams, although I don't feel good about it, But

642
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,520
Speaker 3: then I have them number four. Where do you have

643
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 3: them within the NFC? I have them above the forty

644
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 3: nine erst pretty comfortably above the forty nine ers, But

645
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 3: where do you have them in the NFC right now?

646
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 2: I mean I have them one slot lower than you

647
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 2: because I still have San Francisco a bit higher. I

648
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 2: don't know, maybe that's a mistake on my part, but

649
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 2: the updating process ended up being, you know, it's a

650
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 2: little bit slower for San Francisco than for other teams

651
00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 2: because of the switch at quarterback and having less evidence

652
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 2: there the monsoon. Whatever you want to play into that,

653
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 2: I don't want to play too much into it, but

654
00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 2: I do think we're kind of discounting some of the

655
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,480
Speaker 2: results there. And San Francisco's defense, which was what I

656
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 2: thought they were going to hang their hat on this season,

657
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 2: has been Legit has been there and I have seen

658
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 2: no problems there. So I still have San Francisco higher,

659
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 2: but it's really close, so I could flip either way there,

660
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 2: and I think that's probably the reason you probably have

661
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 2: them a little bit higher than eighth.

662
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 5: I still of the Chargers.

663
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 2: Actually a little bit higher, which is a bit surprising,

664
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 2: but I've also discounted some of what we saw last

665
00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 2: week offensively.

666
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 5: Maybe that's a mistake. We'll see what happens next week

667
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 5: with the Chargers.

668
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have the Chargers a quarter of a point

669
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 3: below below the Eagles, and I would say, like part

670
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 3: of that is just like the news that left tackle

671
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 3: over Shawn Slater is out for the year.

672
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, that's a move.

673
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, that's a good one.

674
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 2: I actually I don't have that incorporated in yet, so

675
00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 2: that of any non quarterback position, that would be right

676
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 2: up there near the top. And I guess the problem

677
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 2: with Herbert is I don't necessarily think he's gonna he's

678
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 2: going to take a lot more sacks because he's really

679
00:29:58,320 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 2: good at taking sax. But if you thought it is

680
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 2: off was too conservative before, wait till he has, you know,

681
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 2: fractured rib cartilage and no left tackle. His A dot

682
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 2: is probably going to be around four in the next

683
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 2: couple of weeks.

684
00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 1: Now, moving from some teams that were high on to

685
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 1: Matt's favorite thing, teams that were low on, who are

686
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: some of the people that they were looking at here,

687
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 1: especially you talk about the Chargers. The AFC West was

688
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 1: billed to be a bloody juggernaut with four Super Bowl

689
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,479
Speaker 1: contenders vying for the playoffs. But my big question right

690
00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 1: now is who do you rank lower the Broncos are

691
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,400
Speaker 1: the Raiders? Even at two and one, I can't rank

692
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 1: the Broncos very highly, and frankly, I like the Raiders

693
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 1: this week in Vegas getting two and a half, I

694
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:39,640
Speaker 1: believe is the number right now. I don't have it

695
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: in front of me, but I'm a little higher on

696
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 1: the Silver and Black than I am on these Broncos.

697
00:30:44,640 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 1: But how bad are both of these teams right now?

698
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm I mean, I'm still higher on the Broncos.

699
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 5: I guess I don't know.

700
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 2: Again, my prior, like my prior on Russell Wilson, is

701
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 2: a lot stronger than my prior on Derek Carr.

702
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 5: I was never one of these.

703
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 2: Derek Carr is a top twelve quarterback sort of things

704
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 2: that we were hearing in the off season.

705
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 5: And Wilson was better.

706
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 2: Than you think in Week one if you look at

707
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:12,120
Speaker 2: his numbers, and they had so many penalties and the

708
00:31:12,160 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 2: red zone inefficiencies, all that sort of stuff. I guess

709
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,280
Speaker 2: for those reasons, I'm still a little bit higher on

710
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 2: them going forward. And the you know, Vegas was a

711
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 2: team I assume was going to regress a little bit

712
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 2: defensively this year. There's still any good pressure and I

713
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 2: still think that you know, Max Crosby is playing great

714
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:29,959
Speaker 2: so far this year, so that's part of it.

715
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 5: But also the addition of DeVante Adams.

716
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 2: I don't know about you, but like this is I'm

717
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 2: may mcguill in to a football guy here, But when

718
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 2: you think about him versus A J. Brown going to

719
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 2: the Eagles, or you think about Tyreek Hill going to

720
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 2: the Dolphins, I feel like his targets, his contribution is

721
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:49,640
Speaker 2: going to cannibalize a little bit more of what they

722
00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 2: kind of already do well with Hunter. Renfrow of course

723
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 2: is injured, so not as much, and Darren Waller as

724
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 2: opposed to really being something where the sum of the

725
00:31:57,840 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 2: being bigger than the sum of the parts. So I

726
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 2: just didn't see that addition as doing as much. And

727
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 2: you know, we'll wait and see what ends up happening.

728
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 2: He got a ton of of numbers in Week one,

729
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 2: but even by the numbers, that was Carr's most inefficient

730
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 2: game so far this year, because he was taking sacks

731
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 2: and throwing interceptions.

732
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, Kevin.

733
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 3: I'm I'm with you one hundred percent on Devanta Adams.

734
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 3: I think a lot of the magic that he had

735
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 3: in Green Bay was as a result of his his

736
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:26,479
Speaker 3: connection with Aaron Rodgers. He's not like a system changer

737
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 3: and offense changer, whereas A J. Brown Uh and Tyreek Hill.

738
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 3: You put them in different systems and they can change

739
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 3: the entire complexion of how defenses have to have to

740
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 3: play them. And I don't think that's necessarily the case

741
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 3: with h with Devanta Adams. And I'm I'm with you

742
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 3: on still having Denver UH pretty significantly ahead of Las Vegas.

743
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 5: I have a difficult I have zero I kind of

744
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 5: like them actually this week, so maybe maybe I just

745
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 5: say I have to look into it.

746
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 2: I thought it was Vegas was favored in this, Are

747
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 2: they not Vegas? Vegas is favored Vegas or something like that.

748
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 4: It's now two and a half.

749
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 3: The long continued to move towards Vegas, and I think

750
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 3: that is I think again, I might be going.

751
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 2: I might be going like when contrarianism goes wrong, because

752
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:14,000
Speaker 2: if I see one more Russ cooking video of someone

753
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 2: like blowing up their kitchen, I'm just I can't take

754
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 2: it anymore. People, we get it. We've heard all the

755
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 2: Russ Cook jokes. You can put them aside. Let's like,

756
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 2: this guy's become the most hated man in the NFL somehow.

757
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 1: Well, corneus man in the NFL.

758
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 5: Hey, Corney's okay, Cordie's okay. I remember those.

759
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 2: DK Metcalf was being interviewed about him a while ago,

760
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 2: and he's like, he's like, hey, being corneas, you know,

761
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 2: working out really hard and you know, loving your wife

762
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 2: and kids and doing whatever. Then I'll be I'll be

763
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 2: corny too. I'll be Russell Wilson too. So I'm sticking

764
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 2: up for us. I was sticking up for us.

765
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 3: Now, Okay, it's really nice of the big jack eye

766
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 3: DK Metcalf to to be like the social bodyguard for

767
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 3: Russ in that instance. Okay, So, Kevin, I've got a

768
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 3: question about Las Vegas here. So let's assume that I

769
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,760
Speaker 3: it's not an assumption, it's true. I down on Las

770
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 3: Vegas entering the season. So you know, like I was

771
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 3: on the under the win total of eight and a half.

772
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 4: Shout out me.

773
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 3: But you know, like I would say, I haven't seen

774
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:15,919
Speaker 3: anything to make me adjust my rankings up for Las

775
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 3: Vegas out of what we've seen so far. If anything,

776
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 3: it's like I want to continue to move them down,

777
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 3: although I have fought the urge to do that because

778
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:26,720
Speaker 3: I know I was already low on them anyway relative

779
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 3: to the market, So thinking about them relative to Denver,

780
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 3: and I have adjusted Denver down, but not all that

781
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 3: much because it's only three games, and as you say,

782
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 3: you know, like kind of look at adjusted scores, Denver

783
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 3: hasn't been as bad as maybe everything has looked on

784
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 3: the field. Nathaniel Hackett decision making a side. I think like,

785
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,919
Speaker 3: how do you approach, let's say, if you're already down

786
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 3: on a team like Las Vegas, how do you approach

787
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 3: adjusting your priors or adjusting your power ratings when everything

788
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 3: has kind of gone the way that you thought it would,

789
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 3: but you know that you're kind of an outlier relative

790
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:05,560
Speaker 3: to the market.

791
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,879
Speaker 2: Well, I mean maybe I wouldn't. I would hope to

792
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,320
Speaker 2: not be that much of an outlier relative.

793
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 5: To the market. So I guess maybe that's the starting point.

794
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 2: I mean, I do try to regress these things against

795
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 2: the market and get a little bit closer to where

796
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 2: they are, so that might be first to it. But

797
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 2: for the Raiders, I think that a big part is

798
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:26,840
Speaker 2: quarterback play.

799
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 5: So and I do think maybe I'm wrong on this,

800
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 5: but I think that people's.

801
00:35:31,640 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 2: Over evaluation of them was the fact that people think

802
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 2: Derek Carr is better than I think Derek Carr is.

803
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:39,439
Speaker 2: So it's kind of looking at that and saying, because

804
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 2: that's still a fair assessment at this point, and you

805
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 2: know it was I wrong on that or the market

806
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 2: wrong on that. I'm still a little bit more confident

807
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 2: that the market is wrong on that. I mean I'm

808
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,800
Speaker 2: looking at the Reds now, I'm kind of like, Okay,

809
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 2: how do I position them versus you know, like the

810
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,839
Speaker 2: Commanders or the Colts or maybe even the Steelers right now.

811
00:35:58,840 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 2: I mean, those are the type of teams that I'm

812
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 2: so comparing them to at this point. Maybe I'm crazy,

813
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 2: but I don't think I'm that far off honestly on that.

814
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 4: Okay, I hear you.

815
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 3: I have them higher than the Jags, and and but

816
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 3: like my heart is like n the Jags would kill

817
00:36:11,280 --> 00:36:13,359
Speaker 3: them on a neutral field, like the Jags would beat them.

818
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I have him higher than the Jags, too,

819
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 2: But I think I agree with you there, I'd be

820
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 2: much more concerned because of the fact of new coach

821
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence development, the ability for a player where you

822
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 2: have these like exponential gains where you're building off of

823
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 2: each other for a for a team, again, it's not

824
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 2: a linear sort of advancement. So even if you know

825
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:37,239
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence develops from from A to B, he might

826
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 2: be taking the team that much further because of everything

827
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 2: else that they have there, the Christian Kirk condition, all

828
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:43,680
Speaker 2: that sort of stuff, So I would be I'm less

829
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: confident in that ranking than I am. I'm actually I'm

830
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,879
Speaker 2: pretty confident in the Raiders ranking right now, but I'd

831
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:51,799
Speaker 2: be less confident in someone like the Jaguars.

832
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 1: As you say, If you want to win a sign

833
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon Cincinnati Bengals Jersey courtesy of our friends at

834
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:01,240
Speaker 1: Christine Auction, you need to subscribed to the Betting Pros

835
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 1: YouTube channel right now. Comment below this video and that

836
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 1: is it. You will automatically be entered. We will be

837
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make

838
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Speaker 1: sure to turn on those notifications so you can be

839
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 1: alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize.

840
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:20,400
Speaker 1: How confident Are you in a team like the Packers, though,

841
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 1: because I'm really curious as to how the data is

842
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:25,440
Speaker 1: breaking down and how you're interpreting all this, because to me,

843
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 1: this is a team that's only had like one good

844
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 1: quarter of offense so far this season, and what I'm

845
00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 1: seeing mostly I don't think that they're going to be

846
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 1: able to compete with the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City

847
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 1: Chiefs offenses of the world, where they're going to have

848
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 1: to put up points quickly, and I think that this

849
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 1: is going to be a slow, methodical moving offense that's

850
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 1: just way too run heavy without Adams in there. What

851
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 1: are you interpreting for the Packers? Are you low on

852
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 1: them or are you thinking that they're just fine?

853
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,479
Speaker 5: I mean, I'm relatively low on them.

854
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:00,400
Speaker 2: I mean I was wrong, but I thought I was

855
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 2: more confident in the Bucks last week than the Packers

856
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,879
Speaker 2: as far as being a better team. But the thing

857
00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 2: with the Packers is I almost have built into my

858
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,440
Speaker 2: rankings that they have like cluster injuries at wide receiver

859
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,919
Speaker 2: just for the entire season, even with their starters, even

860
00:38:17,000 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 2: if they're playing everyone that they should be playing.

861
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 5: Now, maybe a Romeo Dobbs will be able to play well.

862
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 2: Maybe Sammy Watkins will step forward, maybe Alanazard will step forward.

863
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 2: But it's just a huge difference when we're talking about

864
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:31,840
Speaker 2: that sort of receiving corps versus replacing Tyreek Hill in

865
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: Kansas City with a Juju Smith Schuster or with an

866
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 2: MVS who used to be there, you know, with kind

867
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 2: of credit, more credible ish sort of options.

868
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 5: So I am concerned there and.

869
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:43,839
Speaker 2: I still have that built into to what I'm doing

870
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:47,839
Speaker 2: on the ratings. And another concern for them is the

871
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 2: defense was supposed to be something they can hang their

872
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 2: hat on this season, and.

873
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 5: It's been okay, you know, it's been good ish, you

874
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:57,800
Speaker 5: know sort of defense.

875
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 2: But were they that good versus Tampa Bay or was

876
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 2: it more of Tampa Bay struggles. Obviously they had some

877
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:05,319
Speaker 2: coverage busts, so maybe they were a little bit better

878
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:09,399
Speaker 2: against the Vikings than you might think. And I'm never

879
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 2: one to say you can throw out anything, but maybe

880
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:12,360
Speaker 2: you can throw.

881
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 5: Out playing the Chicago Bears.

882
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 2: When you play the Chicago Bears, maybe that doesn't really

883
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 2: mean anything from a defensive perspective.

884
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 3: Okay, I want to push back just a little bit

885
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 3: against not everything you said, but certain certain parts of it.

886
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 3: So you you look at success rate a lot or

887
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 3: not a lot, but like you maybe wait that more

888
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 3: than most people would when you are thinking about how

889
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 3: to evaluate games. Now the Packers on defense, they're number

890
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 3: two in drop back success rate, so like, yeah, one

891
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 3: of those games came against justin Fields, but like, you know,

892
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 3: I think they've actually been pretty good on the defensive

893
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 3: side of the ball. I was impressed by what they

894
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 3: were able to do in Week three against Tom Brady.

895
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 3: And I mean it wasn't just cluster injuries at wide receiver,

896
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,359
Speaker 3: permanent cluster know injuries at wide receiver. I mean they

897
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 3: were significantly injured on the offensive line, missing two tackles

898
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:10,839
Speaker 3: and in week one, yeah I believe it was Week

899
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 3: one or we two, but left guard John Running went

900
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,839
Speaker 3: out with a concussion. And so now now they are

901
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 3: finally healthy on the offensive line, and you know, I

902
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 3: think starting to integrate more the wide receivers within their offense.

903
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 3: We have the priors of previous seasons of knowing that

904
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers, even if you know you have issues with

905
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 3: his style of playing quarterback, that he is a good quarterback.

906
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,319
Speaker 3: I still really like the Packers given the combination of

907
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 3: coaching stability Aaron Rodgers the off season to figure out

908
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:47,240
Speaker 3: how it is that they want to run their offense

909
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:53,799
Speaker 3: and an improved defense. So they're still like they're still

910
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 3: a top three team for me in my power rating,

911
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,359
Speaker 3: it's like they're the number one team in the NFC.

912
00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 5: I think, the top three team in the NFC North or.

913
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:05,240
Speaker 3: The top top three, top three team in the league,

914
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:07,240
Speaker 3: number one team in the NFC.

915
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:09,919
Speaker 2: Okay, well let me okay, let's let's ok. We gotta

916
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 2: having rankings off here. Okay, so I have.

917
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 5: I have the Rams above them, which you probably don't.

918
00:41:16,719 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 5: I have the Chiefs. I still have the Bucks above them. Again,

919
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:20,399
Speaker 5: maybe you're you're not there.

920
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 2: It seems like for that too, but I just feel

921
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:23,880
Speaker 2: like the Bucks can get those receivers back. The Bucks

922
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:26,479
Speaker 2: defense has been really, really good so far this year.

923
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 2: I have them more of being an equivalent to San Francisco,

924
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:34,359
Speaker 2: close to San Francisco. And maybe maybe I'm wrong because

925
00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 2: there were some injuries last year, but you know, their

926
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 2: defense wasn't that great last year. And I know there's

927
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 2: assumption that they're getting Jyry Alexander back, and you know

928
00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:43,560
Speaker 2: there's some other pieces there. But maybe that's part of

929
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 2: it too, maybe my I think my prior on them

930
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 2: was a little bit lower than some others coming into

931
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 2: the season, because what you've seen from them this season,

932
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 2: I mean, you must have had them ranked just as

933
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:53,959
Speaker 2: high coming into the season, because I don't think you're

934
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,880
Speaker 2: necessarily happy with what you've seen visa vi a third

935
00:41:57,960 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 2: overall ranking.

936
00:41:59,560 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 3: I mean I was, I was high on them, but

937
00:42:01,400 --> 00:42:05,280
Speaker 3: I actually, maybe this is my warped brain. I'm actually

938
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 3: pleased with what I saw out of them, given the

939
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 3: injuries that they were dealing with U and so now

940
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:14,840
Speaker 3: with a lot of those players back, specifically David Boctiari,

941
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 3: right tackle Elson Jenkins, you know, at Alan Lazard coming

942
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:22,320
Speaker 3: in uh miss week one, Like, I'm actually pleased, Like

943
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 3: they got the cover against the Bears, they got the

944
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 3: cover on the road against the Buccaneers.

945
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 4: You know, Like, I'm actually I'm pleased with.

946
00:42:30,080 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 3: What I've seen out of them, knowing that it was

947
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 3: probably going to be a tougher stretch earlier in the year, uh,

948
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:39,799
Speaker 3: and that it's likely they will improve as the season progresses.

949
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 5: Well, look keep an eye on Bactieri a little bit.

950
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:46,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, And one of the stranger recoveries still was platooning,

951
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 2: Like why you.

952
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,440
Speaker 5: Never see that right offensive line and play every snap.

953
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 2: So I guess I would discount whatever your assumption for

954
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:56,240
Speaker 2: his level of play is going forward slightly.

955
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just worried about the fact that they play

956
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:02,520
Speaker 1: three touchdowns in the second quarter versus the Bears and

957
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:06,200
Speaker 1: have three touchdowns in every other quarter combined to the

958
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:07,439
Speaker 1: rest of the season so far.

959
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:09,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's that's fair.

960
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 3: I'm probably holding onto my prior a little too strongly,

961
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 3: and I was probably too high on them in the

962
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 3: original prior to begin with. But whatever, I still think

963
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:19,240
Speaker 3: that they're the best team in the NFC.

964
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, it's not like they haven't been one

965
00:43:22,680 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 1: of those slow starting teams who gets up, who gets

966
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 1: going and dominates for the rest of the season before.

967
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:29,840
Speaker 1: So it's not like you're coming from a wild conjecture

968
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 1: standpoint here. We've seen that, So that's.

969
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 5: Where they were seeing going into the year, kind of

970
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 5: in that in that sort of range. So yeah, it's

971
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:36,520
Speaker 5: not It's.

972
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 2: Not a wild take by any stretch, but I was

973
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 2: low on them coming into the season.

974
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 1: Now, guys, before we get out of here, let's talk

975
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 1: about some Thursday Night football, because we have a very

976
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 1: rare occurrence this week, a good Thursday night game coming

977
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 1: up here. We've got the Dolphins going.

978
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 2: Up against the Bengals, and pay that good money exactly.

979
00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 1: They were like, we're not getting the trash mashup. Do

980
00:43:56,680 --> 00:44:00,040
Speaker 1: you put the NFC East on Monday night now? But

981
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,400
Speaker 1: this game here right now. If you want the best line,

982
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 1: you've got Bengals minus four. You might be you could

983
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 1: find a three and a half hanging around someplace. In

984
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 1: some places have gone to four. If you want the Dolphins,

985
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 1: where are you going on this one? I'm flummixed. I

986
00:44:19,120 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 1: feel like I have to take this plus four.

987
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:25,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean for me, it's it depends on how

988
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:26,719
Speaker 2: you're rating to a situation.

989
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 5: Armstead.

990
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:33,319
Speaker 2: The fact that their defense just played ninety snaps in

991
00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 2: you know, one hundred and ten degree field weather.

992
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 5: At least this is also on the Bill side.

993
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 2: I think the Bills will still be affected by it,

994
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:43,240
Speaker 2: honestly next next week, even though they're not even playing

995
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 2: on on Thursday. They meant least the Miami team gets

996
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 2: the shade diabolical stadium there where they're in the shade

997
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,879
Speaker 2: and then the other the opposing team is in the heat,

998
00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 2: the entire time during the game. So I think those

999
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 2: are really the big questions because if you look at this,

1000
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 2: if you look at this line agnostic of all that,

1001
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 2: this would be telling you that the Bengals are a

1002
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 2: better team than the Dolphins, because even at Hollm, they

1003
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:08,239
Speaker 2: wouldn't be favored by three and a half four points

1004
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:10,239
Speaker 2: unless that was the case. I think they're close to

1005
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 2: being similar sort of teams on this. So if you

1006
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 2: could get comfortable around the injury information, I think there's

1007
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 2: probably some value on the Dolphins, and that's where I

1008
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:19,040
Speaker 2: would lean.

1009
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 5: But maybe I'm more.

1010
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:22,920
Speaker 2: Confident than most that Tua is going to play in

1011
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 2: this game. He's not in concussion protocol, he did play

1012
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 2: the full second half, and so for those reasons, I

1013
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 2: think I think he will be back.

1014
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 5: But I could be wrong on that one.

1015
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:37,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I bet this early Cincinnati minus two and a half,

1016
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 3: so happy with the closing line value there, which basically

1017
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 3: means I'm destined to lose this bet. But I currently

1018
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 3: am showing you value at this number of four, the

1019
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 3: consensus number at four looking at the betting Pros odds page.

1020
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 3: Now I'm showing value on Miami like I have this

1021
00:45:55,400 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 3: at two point seventy five. Now I'm not fully taking

1022
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 3: into account. Uh to A, you know, like I think

1023
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:04,839
Speaker 3: he's gonna play. I think he's gonna play in this game.

1024
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 3: But uh yeah, like the situational spot of everything, Kevin said,

1025
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 3: the defense playing ninety snaps in ridiculous weather and then

1026
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 3: having to go on the road on short rest.

1027
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 5: Uh.

1028
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 4: Jalen Waddle dealing with a groin injury.

1029
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 3: I mean, he probably plays, but I don't think he's

1030
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:22,120
Speaker 3: going to be one hundred percent defensive tackle.

1031
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:24,919
Speaker 4: Rakwan Davis dealing with a knee injury. So like they're

1032
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 4: not a they're not.

1033
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:30,760
Speaker 3: A healthy team, and the Bengals are a pretty healthy team. Uh,

1034
00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 3: and they're playing at home in this spot. So you know,

1035
00:46:33,360 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 3: if I had to bet on it at this current number,

1036
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:36,880
Speaker 3: I would be going Miami.

1037
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:40,919
Speaker 4: But I'm not like happy to be taking that bet.

1038
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, man, And there's something there are three and zero.

1039
00:46:44,280 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe to A could say, I mean it's not

1040
00:46:46,600 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 2: out of the realm of possibility that that ends up

1041
00:46:49,200 --> 00:46:53,560
Speaker 2: happening in this game. And Teddy Bridgewater, I mean, could

1042
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:55,680
Speaker 2: we just go straight to Skyler Thompson. That's my man,

1043
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 2: my man, Scalar Thompson. I just want Scalar Thompson to

1044
00:46:57,880 --> 00:46:58,800
Speaker 2: play this season.

1045
00:46:59,080 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 4: You and Matt Waldman.

1046
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:01,839
Speaker 5: I love that guy.

1047
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 4: Two guys, Yeah, two guys.

1048
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 5: Uh also love Matt carral though, So what the hell

1049
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 5: do I know?

1050
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:09,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, if you're Miami, I feel like you almost are

1051
00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 1: backed into a corner where you have to play to

1052
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 1: unless you make up some injury he sustains in practice

1053
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:18,399
Speaker 1: because you can't. You can't go out there, especially now

1054
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,120
Speaker 1: where they're already saying we kind of want to take

1055
00:47:20,160 --> 00:47:23,239
Speaker 1: a look at this, because they trotted that guy back

1056
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:25,720
Speaker 1: out there like he was Frank Reynolds from Always Sonny

1057
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:29,200
Speaker 1: with the certificate saying does not have donkey brains like

1058
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 1: this guy. It was already suspect to begin with. To

1059
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:35,719
Speaker 1: sit him now and be like, oh, yeah, maybe he

1060
00:47:35,719 --> 00:47:38,799
Speaker 1: did have a concussion. I feel like that would open

1061
00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 1: up such a big can of worms that they're almost

1062
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 1: going to be forcing their hand and have to play him.

1063
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:43,359
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1064
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 2: Well, I mean they would say it was the back right,

1065
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:48,640
Speaker 2: and I mean, okay, maybe maybe I'm maybe I'm being

1066
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 2: a little bit too generous to them, But I did

1067
00:47:50,200 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 2: rewatch some of that game and when they when they

1068
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 2: when when the trader first went up to him, he

1069
00:47:54,280 --> 00:47:55,720
Speaker 2: did reach around.

1070
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 5: And he was like that that didn't sound right.

1071
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:00,400
Speaker 2: He did like like like like put a had to

1072
00:48:00,520 --> 00:48:03,240
Speaker 2: round the back and kind of like he was touching

1073
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,319
Speaker 2: something in his back. So I don't know, maybe there,

1074
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,799
Speaker 2: maybe it actually was legit. I feel like it's hard.

1075
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:13,520
Speaker 2: They're supposed to have an independent neurologist as part of

1076
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 2: the assessment, So I don't know. I don't think that

1077
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:19,799
Speaker 2: there's jacknery going on there, but you never know, you

1078
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 2: never know what would end up happening here.

1079
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean final thought on this game here. If Tua,

1080
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 3: you know, ends up having obviously full bill of health

1081
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:32,880
Speaker 3: he's playing on Thursday, I imagine that this line moves

1082
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 3: back down closer to three. But if it happens to

1083
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:40,280
Speaker 3: stay above three in Tua is playing and Jalen Waddle

1084
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:42,839
Speaker 3: is playing through the groin injury, then I think there's

1085
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:46,720
Speaker 3: value on Miami at that number, like anything above three.

1086
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:49,320
Speaker 1: I know you just said final thought, but the forty

1087
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 1: six and a half number is kind of tempting me

1088
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:53,480
Speaker 1: to an over here. I think both of these offenses

1089
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:54,960
Speaker 1: can see twenty eight points.

1090
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:57,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I have the Bengals defense being pretty

1091
00:48:57,840 --> 00:48:59,840
Speaker 2: good this year, so that would be my only concern.

1092
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 2: And the and the Miami has been a little bit

1093
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:04,879
Speaker 2: big play reliant so far.

1094
00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 5: Maybe they, I mean, maybe you can do it.

1095
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 2: Maybe you can get like a you know, a thirty

1096
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 2: yard catch forty yard catch from Jalen Waddle or multiple

1097
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:14,719
Speaker 2: every single week from them. So again, I think it's

1098
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 2: it's going to be dependent upon a lot of that

1099
00:49:16,200 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 2: injury stuff too, so I would more stay away on that.

1100
00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 2: But I can see that that's a light number compared

1101
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:23,000
Speaker 2: to what it would be if all these question marks

1102
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 2: were not there.

1103
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 1: For sure, is a Jalen Wattle fantasy winner? I very

1104
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 1: much support that.

1105
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have this at forty six point nine, so

1106
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 3: I'm staying away from it.

1107
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 4: At forty six and a half.

1108
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 1: Forty seven plus Thursday night games, you have the less

1109
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 1: prep time. And like you said, the Dolphins did just

1110
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:42,000
Speaker 1: play that game in the heat. I could see I

1111
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:46,919
Speaker 1: can see the counter argument to this. Yeah, all right, guys,

1112
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:48,839
Speaker 1: well that's going to do it for us here today. Kevin,

1113
00:49:48,880 --> 00:49:51,360
Speaker 1: thank you so much for coming on Where can people

1114
00:49:51,400 --> 00:49:53,320
Speaker 1: find you and all the fantastic work you're doing for

1115
00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:55,000
Speaker 1: PFF and beyond sure.

1116
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:55,239
Speaker 5: Sure.

1117
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:57,000
Speaker 2: I mean you can find me on social media on

1118
00:49:57,040 --> 00:50:01,879
Speaker 2: Twitter at Kevin Cole, PFF author page at PFF where

1119
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:05,800
Speaker 2: I do quarterback rankings, different analysis for all the different

1120
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:09,800
Speaker 2: Showdown Island game contests, with the single game DFS contest,

1121
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:13,400
Speaker 2: there some other DFS stuff related to ceilings and different

1122
00:50:13,400 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 2: stacks that you can build, so all.

1123
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:15,439
Speaker 5: Of that is there.

1124
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:19,320
Speaker 2: And then the Unexpected Points podcasts where if you enjoy

1125
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:23,640
Speaker 2: hearing the dulcet tones of this voice going on and

1126
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:26,120
Speaker 2: on and on, that would be the Monday Morning Show,

1127
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:29,160
Speaker 2: and then also on Tuesday morning, I review Monday Night

1128
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:31,920
Speaker 2: football and talk about Thursday night and then on Friday

1129
00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 2: morning review Thursday Night football. But I think it's a

1130
00:50:34,440 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 2: it's a good way of digging into the advanced stands.

1131
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 2: And at the same time, you know, everyone likes to

1132
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 2: ding on PFF for the grading and other stuff, and

1133
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 2: I agree with some of the complaints, so I do

1134
00:50:43,520 --> 00:50:45,799
Speaker 2: like to walk through the grading sometimes and even talk

1135
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,680
Speaker 2: about how my perception of what went on made different

1136
00:50:48,719 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 2: from the grading and how we're building into it. So

1137
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 2: I think it's educational for people to who don't just

1138
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:56,879
Speaker 2: want to say you guys are losers. Never play the game.

1139
00:50:57,200 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 2: You know you all stink don't know what you're talking about.

1140
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:03,239
Speaker 2: Who actually care to know what's going on. It's a

1141
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:04,759
Speaker 2: good educational resource there too.

1142
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 1: I feel like we have to bring you back on

1143
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:10,480
Speaker 1: for an entire discussion just about the PFF grades, but

1144
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:12,440
Speaker 1: for now, that is going to do it for us.

1145
00:51:12,440 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 1: Once again, thank you Kevin so much for your time today.

1146
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:17,680
Speaker 1: It has been an absolute pleasure. Guys. Be sure to

1147
00:51:17,719 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 1: tune back in on Thursday. We're gonna have Peter Jennings

1148
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:24,000
Speaker 1: from Unabated joining us to help break down the weekend's game.

1149
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:28,600
Speaker 1: But for now, for Kevin Matt, I'm Tom saying, that's all, folks,

1150
00:51:28,800 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 1: and let's cash some tickets.