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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy pros MLB. It's time to

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Speaker 1: talk trade with me, Joey p and the Welsh. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with a big name in fantasy who's had a

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Speaker 1: rough two week span. It's Fernando Tatis Junior, a guy

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Speaker 1: who's had a great season so far. So eventually, Welsh

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Speaker 1: it was going to come back down to earth a

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Speaker 1: little bit. He was going to hit a cold spell.

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Speaker 1: Thirteen homers, thirteen steals on the year. We love all that,

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Speaker 1: but we don't love is the last two weeks of

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Speaker 1: Fernando Tatis. Over his last twelve games, the slash is

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Speaker 1: one ninety six three fifteen two eighty three with a

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Speaker 1: five ninety eight. Ops. That's not good at all. He's

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Speaker 1: only got one homer row that span in one RBI

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Speaker 1: as well. So if you're looking to buy a superstar,

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Speaker 1: maybe on the cheap, this is the time to do

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Speaker 1: it with Fernando Tatis, Welsh.

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Speaker 2: We can extend this past just the two weeks because

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Speaker 2: he just left. He left May hitting one eighty four,

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Speaker 2: or he hid one eighty four in the entire month

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Speaker 2: of May. He's carried that over to June. This to

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Speaker 2: me is similar to the Corbyn Carroll thing. You know,

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Speaker 2: we talked about Corbyn Carroll on one of these in

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Speaker 2: that these guys aren't cheap by any means, but they're

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Speaker 2: going through this big struggle. It's an interesting time that,

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe it changes from these guys are not

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Speaker 2: available to they become available, and then the next tier

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Speaker 2: is they can become available at a little bit more

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Speaker 2: of a discount, and Tatisa might be somewhere between, like

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Speaker 2: because he's a superstar, might be somewhere in that realm

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Speaker 2: of like someone's listening now and maybe they're willing to

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Speaker 2: consolidate because it was a horrible May, it's a horrible June.

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Speaker 2: The categorically, the stats have kind of dipped. He's hitting

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Speaker 2: two sixty right now, thirteen thirteen on the homers and

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Speaker 2: stolen bases is still nice. He just might be more acquirable,

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Speaker 2: and I'm down for it, you know, because he is

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Speaker 2: his lowest k percentage of his career, one of the

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Speaker 2: highest walk percentages of his career. He's hitting the ball

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Speaker 2: really hard over fifty percent. There's a few things underlying

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Speaker 2: that are just kind of floating out there that maybe

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Speaker 2: like aren't the best barrel is down a tiny bit,

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Speaker 2: but he's still hitting fastballs, he's still hitting some secondary stuff,

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Speaker 2: and I think they're still a lot more in the tank.

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Speaker 2: He's got a weird home road split going on right now,

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Speaker 2: hitting really well at home, struggling on the road. It's

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Speaker 2: not a hitter friendly environment for San Diego. So I

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Speaker 2: kind of like everything about buying him on the low

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Speaker 2: right now. So I'm totally co signing this.

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Speaker 1: Another power speed guy who could be on the trade

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Speaker 1: market right now you might want to look to buy

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Speaker 1: over the last thirty days, Whyatt Langford does have five

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Speaker 1: homers and seven steals. That's pretty good except for the

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Speaker 1: slash during that thirty day period, one eighty one batting

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Speaker 1: average at two sixty two OBP and a three thirty

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Speaker 1: six slugging Yikes. Things have not gone well over the

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Speaker 1: last month or so for Wyatt Langford. But as Welsh

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Speaker 1: likes to say, the counting stats are allowed. So power

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Speaker 1: and speed still good. The rest of it, you hope

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Speaker 1: will start to turn around. Welsh, what do you think

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Speaker 1: about buying Wyatt Langford because I want to right now. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I think this is like just like the the Tatis one.

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Speaker 2: You know, he had a horrifically bad entire month of May,

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Speaker 2: where he hit sub two hundred, hit one eighty nine.

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Speaker 2: He's kind of doing the same thing here in June,

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Speaker 2: but I'm all for the buye. He's struggling against lefties

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Speaker 2: right now, but you know last year he hit like

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Speaker 2: twenty five points higher as a right handed hitter. I

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Speaker 2: think he's going to continue to do that. He's actually

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Speaker 2: bareling the ball better, he's hitting the ball harder, he's

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Speaker 2: walking more this year, and average X of velocity is

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Speaker 2: two miles per hour up, So a lot of that

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Speaker 2: underlying stuff that's telling us a really good story. He's

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Speaker 2: also underperforming against fastballs and breaking pitches, so there's an

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Speaker 2: expected batting average that looks to be better. So we've

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Speaker 2: had these rangers have just been really really slow. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: like you said, the counting stats, the term I would

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Speaker 2: like to use like, he looks like he can still

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Speaker 2: be a twenty five to twenty five guy, and if

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Speaker 2: the worst is out, you can have had somebody else

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Speaker 2: take on the bad months when the best is yet

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Speaker 2: to come, because the hitting profile still looks really good.

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Speaker 2: So another really good, like bigger name that would be

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Speaker 2: probably easier to acquire because of these really bad struggles

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Speaker 2: and if you got somebody that's really hitting the panic button,

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Speaker 2: absolutely look to pick.

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Speaker 1: Up the pieces. Yeah, if Langford could just find a

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Speaker 1: little bit more consistency next season, you could see the

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Speaker 1: real breakout. I don't think it's gonna be this year.

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Speaker 1: Maybe still work in progress, but certainly power speeds still there.

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Speaker 1: That's enough for me to want to buy Let's switch gears.

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Speaker 1: Talk about a couple of pitchers, and we talked about

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Speaker 1: this guy about a month ago and I still want

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Speaker 1: to buy him still. Dylan sees strikeout rate is going

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Speaker 1: up again. It's over eleven k per nine and the

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Speaker 1: walk rates starting to go down over the last month too.

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Speaker 1: It was well in the mid threes. Now it's three

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Speaker 1: point one point five walks per nine. You look at

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Speaker 1: the ERA, it's still four to seven to two. The

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Speaker 1: Padres are a little bit of a strange case right now,

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Speaker 1: trying to kind of find themselves again. They've had some

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Speaker 1: injuries too, But you look at the expected rs three

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Speaker 1: sixty seven, the FIP is three twenty, the ex FIP

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Speaker 1: is three point two to two. Welsh Dylan Ceez is

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Speaker 1: pitching much better than the ERA and just on principle,

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Speaker 1: I think you got to be aggressive on cease. What

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Speaker 1: do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And you know he's also he talked about it

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Speaker 2: a couple weeks ago where he's just waiting for things

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Speaker 2: to like click, Like he's very confident, he knows that

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Speaker 2: things are gonna get right, and he's just waiting to

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Speaker 2: go on that streak. Right now, he is throwing his

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Speaker 2: slider more than and he threw it last year. His

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Speaker 2: fastball he's throwing less, but it's making that his slider's

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Speaker 2: like a forty three percent with pitch and the fastball

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Speaker 2: is getting hit a tiny bit more. But I kind

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Speaker 2: of agree he's talking about like grips and just confidence

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Speaker 2: and those pitches starting to like locate. I think he

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Speaker 2: was even talking about potentially changing how he was throwing

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Speaker 2: a certain grip.

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Speaker 1: Like.

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Speaker 2: I think he's a massively confident pitcher with big strikeout

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Speaker 2: numbers who unfortunately has some streaks. He goes through some

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Speaker 2: streakiness as far as bad months. I mean last year

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Speaker 2: he had a four ERA in May, in June, but

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Speaker 2: he had to and in August, but then go September,

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Speaker 2: July and April they were twos. So it's kind of

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Speaker 2: hot and cold where you're gonna get him, but you

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Speaker 2: always know you're going to get really big strikeouts. So

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Speaker 2: we've had a cold month. I'm willing to buy on

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Speaker 2: Dylan Seas right now.

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Speaker 1: For sure. I want to buy on Mason Miller of

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Speaker 1: the athletics too. You know, when the a's are or athletics,

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Speaker 1: I should say are well when you're sitting at you know,

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Speaker 1: sixteen games under five hundred as may save opportunities. You know,

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Speaker 1: the starting pitching has been atrocious, so the bridge to

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Speaker 1: him hasn't been good. But if you look a little

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Speaker 1: deeper to his expected the ras at three oh seven,

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Speaker 1: even though his era's at four to six three, he's

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Speaker 1: had some bad luck in there too. He's still an

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Speaker 1: elite strikeout guy forty strikeouts over twenty three innings this year.

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Speaker 1: With so many problems in so of these bullpens. We

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Speaker 1: just saw another injury to the Dimondbacks closure situation yesterday.

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Speaker 1: We saw earlier this week raysol Iglesias get taken out

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Speaker 1: of the closer role, getting harder and harder to find,

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Speaker 1: says Plentia. Gave up some runs the other day. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: like I'd kind of looking around saying, you know what,

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Speaker 1: maybe I'm gonna buylo on Mason Miller right now just

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Speaker 1: because the A's have been so bad, lost so many games,

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Speaker 1: that maybe we get a nice second half out of him,

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Speaker 1: and maybe that ERA comes down to the expected area.

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Speaker 1: What do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think okay, I think the general idea is good.

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Speaker 2: The only thing I'll push back against that's tough about

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Speaker 2: this is he is an elite. He's an elite closer

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Speaker 2: regardless of the stats. So you have an elite closer,

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Speaker 2: sure in a market that.

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Speaker 1: Is super super volatile.

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Speaker 2: Then take on, take on, like, all, what can he where?

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Speaker 2: Where can we improve? You said, the gap and the

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Speaker 2: save opportunities? Summer months are coming up. It's a little

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Speaker 2: baby ballpark that they're pitching in. Are is it going

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Speaker 2: to get better? Is it going to get a lot better?

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Speaker 2: And I think the biggest caveat to all of this

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Speaker 2: is you're going to have to pay a premium price.

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Speaker 2: You have to pay a premium price for a closer

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Speaker 2: that has a higher ERA expected still is like, okay,

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Speaker 2: on a middling team in a minor league ballpark, I

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Speaker 2: think it makes it tough. But to your greater point, though,

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Speaker 2: the closing. Like, if you can trade four and get

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Speaker 2: any type of discount on a guy that really matters

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Speaker 2: and really counts and is not in question, that would

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Speaker 2: be really good. I feel like I might be more

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Speaker 2: prone to if I don't know if the price would

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Speaker 2: be the same, But if the price was the same

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Speaker 2: and I could get Amnuel Class A, I'd rather go

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Speaker 2: in that direction than a Mason Miller. But you would

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Speaker 2: hope that maybe with the era with them being the A's,

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Speaker 2: that maybe Mason Miller cheaper than that three or four

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Speaker 2: closer market, And then I think it might be in

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Speaker 2: because it's still a leite, it's elite strike out numbers

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Speaker 2: for sure, He's not in question, but the walks are

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Speaker 2: up this year. So I'm a little indifferent on this

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Speaker 2: one just because of the cost.

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Speaker 1: Mainly, Yeah, I just want a guy that I know

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Speaker 1: is going to be the closer all year, and I

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Speaker 1: know it's going to cost me a little bit, so

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Speaker 1: it's not super cheap. But I think you're buying a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a dip on Mason Miller. And if

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Speaker 1: there's a team that happens to have, let's say, oh

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Speaker 1: you got Miller, You've got Fairbanks you got another closer

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Speaker 1: on your roster, but you're hurting offensively and somebody's got

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Speaker 1: a surplus of offense and that person is you, and

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Speaker 1: you need closer help. Go make a run at Mason

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Speaker 1: Miller or see if you can prime away. Before we

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Speaker 1: get to the guys we're looking to sell, let's talk

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Speaker 1: about the trade analyzer. If you want to make smarter

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball trades, will use the trade analyzer because it

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Speaker 1: will instantly evaluate if a trade benefits you or your

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Speaker 1: opponent more and see how potential trades affect each team's

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Speaker 1: stats and starting lineups. Make informed trade decisions today with

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Speaker 1: a trade analyzer only on Fantasy Baseball My Playbook app

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Speaker 1: or at fantasypros dot com slash MLB my Playbook. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with jose L. Tuove. I want to get rid

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Speaker 1: of him. Why Well, because the last fifteen games got

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Speaker 1: five homers in ten RBI. He's had a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a power surge. But that does not take away

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Speaker 1: a lot of the cold, hard facts. And I mean

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Speaker 1: cold because if you look at the Baseball savon page,

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Speaker 1: it's blue, it's ice cold. His expected WOLBA is two

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Speaker 1: eighty one, is expecting batting average is two thirty five

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Speaker 1: is expected slugging Welsh is three sixty one. So that's

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Speaker 1: after all the five home runs that he's hit in

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Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks. I'm not buying it. The

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Speaker 1: exit velocity off his bat is also eighty five point

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Speaker 1: one right now. That is the lowest two percentile in

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Speaker 1: the league right now all two If looks like a

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Speaker 1: guy at thirty five years old who's just done, and

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Speaker 1: I think this is your window where he had a

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Speaker 1: good power surge and you want to move off them.

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Speaker 1: What do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm with you. It's kind of tough

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Speaker 2: when I always struggle with like the bigger name players

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Speaker 2: when they're kind of struggling or in it. Luckily, he's

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Speaker 2: not like in the throes of he's hitting, like you know,

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Speaker 2: he's a two hundred hitter or whatever. He just hit

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Speaker 2: two sixty two in May. He hit two fifty two

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Speaker 2: in April. So I think that's what you're selling. You're

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Speaker 2: selling it now today. Multi position eligibility that is lower

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Speaker 2: average than maybe his career numbers, but still relatively solid.

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Speaker 2: But I think for a lot of these reasons that

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Speaker 2: you laid out is why I want to get out

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Speaker 2: from it. He's always kind of registered low average exit velocities,

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Speaker 2: but it's the second lowest max exit velocity of his career.

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Speaker 2: I actually think this is the also career lowest average

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Speaker 2: exit velocity. So there's a there's a sign in your

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Speaker 2: face that is showing you that that power depreciation is

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Speaker 2: in your is here. It is like not a fluky thing.

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Speaker 2: He's bareing the ball less they say launch angle sweet spot,

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Speaker 2: and he's trying to pull the ball more, but he's

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Speaker 2: not able to get to that good launch angle spot

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Speaker 2: where he's hitting it perfectly, and that's affecting power. Hard

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Speaker 2: hit numbers are down, and he's also under overperforming against

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Speaker 2: every pitch type right now, so it doesn't feel good.

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Speaker 2: Expected average is around two thirty. Power numbers look kind

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Speaker 2: of not aggressively stealing, like I'm I'm fine. I'm not

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Speaker 2: attached to hose Al on two bay. So if I

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Speaker 2: could trade him for median value to like kind of

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Speaker 2: what he is now, I think I would be comfortable

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Speaker 2: moving off because I'm not sure how much more is

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Speaker 2: in the tank. If it's gonna go up or if

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Speaker 2: it's gonna go back down.

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Speaker 1: Well, I want to move off Joe Adele because in

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Speaker 1: his last fifty at BASS he's been red hot six

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Speaker 1: homers twelve rbi over that span, hitting three thirty three

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Speaker 1: with a four h seven OBP and a seven to

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Speaker 1: fifty slugging. Just for perspective, his season long twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five numbers are still bad. He still only has twelve

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Speaker 1: home runs, despite the fact he's got six his last

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Speaker 1: fifteen games. He doesn't steal bases, he only got two

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Speaker 1: on the season. He's sitting two twenty six on the year.

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Speaker 1: This is a moment where if you picked him up

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Speaker 1: off the waiver wire, you just happen to have him

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Speaker 1: that all of a sudden, he has been absolutely scorching

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Speaker 1: over the last two weeks. You move on. Because we've

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Speaker 1: seen this with Joe Adell before. But we'll have like

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Speaker 1: a moment or two and people would run historically pick

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Speaker 1: him up off the waiverwire, only for him to do

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Speaker 1: nothing get sent back down. We know the history of

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Speaker 1: Joe Adele, and I feel like we're just in that

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Speaker 1: spot where I don't want to get fooled again. So

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Speaker 1: if for some reason I got him on my roster,

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Speaker 1: I want to move on. Maybe you're seeing things differently

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Speaker 1: when it comes to Adele, What do you think.

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Speaker 2: A little bit like if he's on the wire, I

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Speaker 2: want to pick him up right now because he is hot,

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Speaker 2: and I think there's actually some interesting stuff. Highest career

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Speaker 2: barrel percentage, highest career hard to hit second, lowest career

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Speaker 2: strikeout rate, which is really nice, highest career average ex

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Speaker 2: of velocity. His expected batting average is fifty points higher

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Speaker 2: than he's currently hitting. It's very very Taylor war to

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Speaker 2: s by the way, zone contact percentage, best of his

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Speaker 2: career far none eighty two point one percent, way over

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Speaker 2: what he's ever done before. I think there's some encouraging stuff.

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Speaker 2: But am I going to pool myself into Joe Adell

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Speaker 2: is living up to the hype?

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Speaker 1: No.

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Speaker 2: I think he is a very worthwhile pickup in any

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Speaker 2: waiver based league. But if someone is out there trying

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Speaker 2: to acquire him and is buying in some of the

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Speaker 2: expected stuff, sure I'm willing to sell out. But this

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Speaker 2: is I think this is the most difficult one you

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Speaker 2: put on here, because like from an ownership percentage, he's

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Speaker 2: like you know, in the teams of ownership percentage, So

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Speaker 2: it's just crazy as.

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Speaker 1: He's thirty three percent rostered. So I think this is

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Speaker 1: more of a deeper league kind of conversation we're having,

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Speaker 1: which is, if you're in a fifty team league with

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Speaker 1: you know, five active outfielders, Joe Adell's rostered. Like there's that.

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Speaker 1: I have very little, you know, doubt. So if you're

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Speaker 1: in big boy, big girl leagues, jo Adell's probably rostered

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Speaker 1: right now, especially after the week before he had. If

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Speaker 1: he has another good finish to this week, I think

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Speaker 1: you got to think about Okay, I've got a really

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Speaker 1: hot asset. Let me try to flip it right now

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Speaker 1: before winter comes for Joe Adell, because inevitably it always does.

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Speaker 1: Louis Castillo another guy that people feel very comfortable with

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Speaker 1: over the years, but I gotta say there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of red flags here at Louis Castillo. I understand his

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Speaker 1: ERA is at three three one, but his expected dras

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Speaker 1: at four six five Welsh That is much higher. The

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Speaker 1: expected FIP is at four to two four. His strikeouts

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Speaker 1: have gone down again for a second year a row,

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Speaker 1: from twenty twenty three to ten k per nine to

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Speaker 1: eight point nine to eight last year to seven point

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Speaker 1: three six. The walk rate has gone up from two

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Speaker 1: point four to one to two a two walks per

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Speaker 1: nine year over year, and I'm looking right now at

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Speaker 1: maybe Louis Castillo is just kind of holding things together

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Speaker 1: with smoke and mirrors.

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Speaker 2: This makes me laugh because I'm gonna do my like.

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Speaker 2: This one is tough because I've been saying this for

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Speaker 2: like months, I like six weeks. I've been trying to

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Speaker 2: sell off him. But here's the problem. He's still been good.

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Speaker 2: He's a three getting on here, better era than he's

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Speaker 2: at over the last three years. But everything you said

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Speaker 2: is why I've wanted to get off of him. So

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Speaker 2: this is one of those where I'm like, I completely

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Speaker 2: agree with you. I want to sell off, but he

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Speaker 2: keeps performing. But yeah, they expected era is like over

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Speaker 2: four and a half. He's lost Villo in his fastball,

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Speaker 2: a mile per hour on his slider, his whip is

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Speaker 2: up like it's a mirage to me. But this is

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Speaker 2: this could be one of those cases where it's just

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Speaker 2: like we keep looking at a lot of this underlying

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Speaker 2: stuff and it never materializes. That can happen, but there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of regressive type of things that don't feel

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Speaker 2: super great about him. And you know his pitch types

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Speaker 2: are overperforming against batting averages. That you know, if guys

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Speaker 2: start kind of hitting it around, you lose Vello into

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Speaker 2: the season. I'm worried that Luis Castillo is going to

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Speaker 2: get hit up, so I agree with you one hundred percent.

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Speaker 2: I am selling on Luis Castillo still, all right.

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Speaker 1: So those are the names we're talking about buying and

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Speaker 1: selling this week. Hit us up. Let us know who

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Speaker 1: you want to trade for. Drop your comments below like

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Speaker 1: the stream, Subscribe to Fantasy Pros MLB and you just

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Speaker 1: might win yourself a Cecil field or autograph jersey. That's right,

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Speaker 1: old school throwback number forty five could be yours from

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Speaker 1: Christine Auction dot com. It is autographed by Cecil Big

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Speaker 1: Daddy himself, and it can be yours just for being

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00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:26,760
Speaker 1: here hanging out talking baseball with us on the channel.

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Speaker 1: That'll do it for us. But the story of the

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Speaker 1: game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll

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Speaker 1: see you next time. Kids.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast.

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