WEBVTT - Week 15 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 142) 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:16.480 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought 0:00:16.520 --> 0:00:18.960 to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:21.000 Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is 0:00:21.040 --> 0:00:23.400 time to talk about our best bets if we can, 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:27.080 given everything that's going on in week fifteen here in 0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:29.560 the NFL season. Great guest today to do that with 0:00:29.600 --> 0:00:32.840 me it is Read Wallach, senior editor over at bets Sided. 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:35.080 Find him on Twitter at his name at read Wallak. 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:36.480 By the way, did I pronounce her last? I didn't 0:00:36.479 --> 0:00:37.640 even ask? Is that how you pronounce her? 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:39.080 Yeah? All natural? That was great? 0:00:39.159 --> 0:00:43.320 Yeah, beautiful? No, no prap? What's that's w A L 0:00:43.479 --> 0:00:45.440 l A h? Just you know on Twitter? 0:00:45.680 --> 0:00:48.280 Read Thank you for joining me today in what I 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:51.760 admit is probably the most difficult like Thursday show to 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:54.160 talk about our weekend best bets because the COVID outbreak. 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:55.880 But I mean that's why I brought you on. I 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:57.040 want the best, you know. 0:00:57.040 --> 0:00:58.960 Yeah, No, this is this is when we thrive. 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:02.160 Adversity guy is getting ruled out left and right, spreads 0:01:02.280 --> 0:01:04.800 up in arms from the openers. This is when you know, 0:01:04.880 --> 0:01:06.800 the going gets tough, the tough get going. 0:01:07.319 --> 0:01:09.360 This is gonna be I think we can be honest 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:12.720 about it. Okay, we're gonna recommend some bets, but obviously 0:01:12.840 --> 0:01:15.160 COVID maytime. One of the bets that I'm going to 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:17.920 recommend already has been moving because of COVID news. They 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:20.880 can just before we start a quick so everybody listening, 0:01:21.200 --> 0:01:22.920 you don't have to run and bet these right now. 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:25.240 Take your time, like see how things develop. 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:26.880 But as of right now, this is where we're going 0:01:26.920 --> 0:01:28.880 to land on some stuff, and we'll do our best 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:29.839 to give some caveats. 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:31.480 All right, we're going to get into it. 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:35.040 This again is our three best bets of the weekend, spread, money, line, total, 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:37.520 whatever we want to do, and a couple of housekeeping 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:40.160 items before we do. Subscribe to our YouTube channel YouTube 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:43.080 dot com slash Betting Pros later today might be probably 0:01:43.319 --> 0:01:45.640 after or before you listen this. Who knows, I'm doing 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:47.680 a props betting live stream, or I'm just gonna come out, 0:01:47.800 --> 0:01:50.240 use our Betting Pros cheat sheet and go through some 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:53.200 of my favorite player props for the Thursday night game. 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:55.040 I'll do the same on Saturday. To do that and 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:57.680 our latest offer from bet MGM new customers when you 0:01:57.760 --> 0:01:59.800 use the code juice one hundred. Can bet ten dollars 0:01:59.840 --> 0:02:02.560 on any NFL team to win their game, win two 0:02:02.640 --> 0:02:04.760 hundred dollars in free bets if that team scores a 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:08.320 touchdown again New Customers Cojuice one hundred that is available 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:14.519 in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, 0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:17.400 and Wyoming. All right, quick, let's run through last week. 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:19.360 Our guest Pat Fitzmorris went one and two with his 0:02:19.400 --> 0:02:22.560 best bets. He hit on Jacksonville and Tennessee under forty 0:02:22.560 --> 0:02:24.600 three and a half. He missed on the Jets getting 0:02:24.639 --> 0:02:27.480 five and a half from the Saints and the Bengals 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:29.400 getting one from the forty nine ers. 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:30.079 I went two and one. 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:32.040 As everybody knows, I took the other side of that game. 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:34.680 Don't really know if that turn was the actual right side, 0:02:34.680 --> 0:02:36.839 but it was a winner in that one. Another game 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:39.000 that was probably the wrong side but was also a 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:41.440 winner for me was the Ravens getting two and a 0:02:41.480 --> 0:02:44.399 half in that game. I did miss on the Falcons 0:02:44.440 --> 0:02:46.320 and the Panthers under forty two and a half, So 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:48.160 I'm now twenty one and twenty one on the year. 0:02:48.520 --> 0:02:51.200 Let's do better. We'll start today. Read you are our 0:02:51.240 --> 0:02:52.360 guest to get the first pick. 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:53.240 What do you got? 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:56.040 Yeah, So I'm going to go with the Patriots plus 0:02:56.080 --> 0:02:57.840 two and a half against the Colts. I think that's 0:02:57.880 --> 0:03:00.760 pretty much the market number as of this record, and 0:03:01.080 --> 0:03:03.680 the three picks I made are as of now not 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:06.440 COVID effected, so hopefully that holds up. 0:03:06.800 --> 0:03:09.079 But this one in particular really caught my eye. 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:11.160 These are two teams coming off of a buy in 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:13.240 Indianapolis and New England, and this was a pick them 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:15.560 in the look ahead market. So I find it fascinating 0:03:15.560 --> 0:03:17.519 that this line has shifted two and a half points 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:18.320 towards the Colts. 0:03:18.320 --> 0:03:20.840 This was a spot I was looking at back Indianapolis. 0:03:20.880 --> 0:03:24.160 Actually, I think New England's a little overvalued in the market, 0:03:24.200 --> 0:03:26.440 but now it feels like everyone feels that way because 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:27.480 now the line's gotten the other way. 0:03:27.520 --> 0:03:29.959 So again, I make this a pick. So I'm gonna 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:30.680 play New England. 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:33.880 And really, you know Colts linebacker saying we want Mac 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:36.200 Jones to beat us after you know he only threw 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:39.000 three attempts against Buffalo, Well that might actually be a 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:41.000 problem because the Colts do have a good run defense. 0:03:41.000 --> 0:03:44.000 But they're actually sixteenth in EPA per pass. 0:03:44.040 --> 0:03:45.520 So I think mac Jones is going to have some 0:03:45.560 --> 0:03:48.240 success through the air on the fast Track at Lucas 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:51.360 Oil Stadium, and listen, mac Jones. He doesn't make mistakes. 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:53.040 He's gonna go through the reads, He's going to go 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:55.760 through the progressions, make the easy pass, Carson Wentz. You 0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:57.600 know that he's gonna make some turnover, He's going to 0:03:57.640 --> 0:03:59.880 make some crazy passes. He's gonna give New England a 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:02.720 So I like New England as an underdog, and also 0:04:02.840 --> 0:04:05.120 I think this is an amazing teaser. Spot got that 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:07.240 over a touchdown at eight and a half, So yeah, 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:07.920 give me New England. 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:09.400 I think that they're the better team and this should 0:04:09.400 --> 0:04:09.880 be a pick them. 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:10.520 Yeah. 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:12.400 I love it as a teaser for sure. With two 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:13.800 and a half, you get it to eight and a half. 0:04:13.840 --> 0:04:15.720 I do love that. I have a lot of trouble 0:04:15.720 --> 0:04:16.160 with this game. 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:16.400 Read. 0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:17.800 First of all, I've had a lot of trouble with 0:04:17.800 --> 0:04:20.200 the paths the whole year, right because I've sort of 0:04:20.200 --> 0:04:22.640 been on the whole Pats are overrated, then, like this 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:23.560 is just what it is. 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:24.200 They're not. 0:04:24.520 --> 0:04:26.880 You know, if you have to make Macdones beat you. 0:04:27.800 --> 0:04:30.000 I think Macdones is a fine rookie quarterback, but I 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:31.920 don't trust him to be able to carry the load 0:04:31.920 --> 0:04:33.919 necessarily if you can't run the ball. But it is 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:36.320 interesting to me that this line is two and a half, Like, 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:38.640 you're right, this struck me as a pick them game, 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:41.479 so there must be money coming in though right on 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:44.279 the cults, I assume that sharp betters are backing the Colts, 0:04:44.320 --> 0:04:47.080 which I don't fully understand. Like if you're getting to 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:48.560 do you think this gets to three? By the way 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:49.600 it's been sitting out there two. 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:49.919 And a half. 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:52.400 I feel like this is if this goes to three, 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:54.960 everyone starts immediately betting New England, and then it goes 0:04:55.000 --> 0:04:56.240 back to two and a half. I feel like this 0:04:56.279 --> 0:04:58.800 closes two and a half. Maybe it comes down a 0:04:58.839 --> 0:05:02.000 little bit again. I just what happened over the bye 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:04.360 week that is changing this market to and half once. 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:07.760 I agree New England is overvalued in the macro of 0:05:07.800 --> 0:05:12.320 the NFL, but in this particular spot, give me Bill Belichick. 0:05:11.960 --> 0:05:12.840 As an underdog. 0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:16.160 You know, I think mac Jones is able to keep 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:17.920 this game close enough where New England's a chance to 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:18.440 win at the end. 0:05:18.760 --> 0:05:20.640 Yeah, and by the way, I mean, Buffalo had a 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:24.800 perfectly fine run defense and New England they knew they 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:26.640 were going to run. They ran the same play and 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:28.720 they just ran down their throats. So as good as 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:30.960 the Cults are, I mean, we saw again Leonard Fournette 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:33.240 have no trouble running the ball in the starly against 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:35.320 them as well. So yeah, man, it is weird, right 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:37.400 because both teams are off a bye, so you would 0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:40.440 think what has changed suddenly to make this spread sort 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:42.040 of start to move and again now it's been hanging 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:43.400 at it two and a half for a little bit, 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:45.640 but you're right. Early on it was, you know, one 0:05:45.680 --> 0:05:46.520 point or something like that. 0:05:46.520 --> 0:05:47.440 It was very interesting. 0:05:47.760 --> 0:05:49.760 I look, if I have to go away, I'm certainly 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:52.200 taking the Pats with the points for sure. If I 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:54.120 have to go away, I'm probably staying away from it 0:05:54.160 --> 0:05:58.000 because man, I don't I just I don't know. I 0:05:58.000 --> 0:05:59.680 don't have a good read on the Patriots team yet 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:01.440 or though or the Colts. By the way, the Colts 0:06:01.480 --> 0:06:03.000 sometimes come out there and you're like, oh, you're the 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:05.560 best team in the NFL. I get it now, But 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:07.719 they also come out there and Carson Wentz is about 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:09.960 to throw a ball left handed, you know, right to 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:12.839 the linebacker and have it run back for a pick Sixugh, 0:06:13.320 --> 0:06:17.400 the worst, the worst. So I'm I leaned towards their way, 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:19.839 but I agree with you. It's one of my favorite 0:06:19.839 --> 0:06:22.280 teaser pieces to get the Pats definitely up to eight 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:22.640 and a half. 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:25.560 So all right, I like it there. I'm gonna be honest. 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:28.120 I don't love a lot of games this weekend like 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:31.600 I did, Like I liked the Eagles, which were laying 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:33.960 four and a half against Washington before it moved to 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:36.440 seven because of all the COVID news, I'm sure, and 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:38.359 all the injuries stuff like that. So I will be 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:40.400 honest that a lot of my picks are a little lukewarm, 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:42.680 but we make picks. We're fine. I'm going to go 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:44.839 with the Packers laying five and a half to the Ravens. 0:06:44.839 --> 0:06:45.920 It was four and a half when I looked at 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:48.640 it when it opened. It's a dead number. It's a 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:50.760 weird sort of number. But I think the bottom line 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:52.480 is I don't love what I hear out of the 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:56.039 Ravens camp about Lamar. I really don't. And even earlier 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:58.280 today it just said he's going to be like they're 0:06:58.320 --> 0:06:59.839 going to take it right up until game time to 0:06:59.880 --> 0:07:01.600 know whether or not he's going to go, So even 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:04.280 if he goes, he's going to be limited, Like this. 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:05.760 Is just what we're going to see. 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:08.320 And I think the fact that they signed Josh Johnson 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:10.800 sort of suggests, Okay, we are really concerned whether or 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:12.360 not he's going to be able to go. But if 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:14.720 he does go, if he doesn't go, as much as 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:17.400 this game is important to him, every game is important 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:19.520 to them, Like they're probably going to win this division 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:21.280 as much as every team is right there, and the 0:07:21.320 --> 0:07:23.280 same sort of thing. I think in the end, they'll 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:25.480 probably be able to pull it out. You attack the 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:27.440 Packers for the most part on the ground, and I 0:07:27.480 --> 0:07:29.560 think a big part of their ground game is the 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:31.800 fact that Lamar Jackson is so mobile. So if he 0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:34.760 does play and his mobility is compromised, as I would expect, 0:07:35.160 --> 0:07:36.920 that is going to affect it. And if not, like 0:07:37.200 --> 0:07:40.480 you know, kudos to Huntley, but not sort of the same. 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:42.880 And really I just don't know how they expect to 0:07:42.920 --> 0:07:45.520 stop the Packers. I know Aaron Rodgers had a quote 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:48.240 setback with the toe and everything like that, but what 0:07:48.320 --> 0:07:51.000 you have is last week, I like the Ravens because 0:07:51.000 --> 0:07:53.480 I said, you know what, all their injuries to the secondary, 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:56.520 which is totally decimated by injuries, that's not as big 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:58.440 a deal against team like the Browns, who doesn't really 0:07:58.440 --> 0:08:01.320 have that prototypical number one or number two receiver, number 0:08:01.320 --> 0:08:02.840 three receiver, that's not how they. 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:03.400 Run their offense. 0:08:03.640 --> 0:08:05.800 But here you've got DeVante Adams and you've got the 0:08:05.880 --> 0:08:10.080 number two pass offense in terms of DVOA against the 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:14.680 twenty sixth defensive DVOA against the pass team in the Ravens. 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:18.280 So with their injuries with Lamar Jackson, this just strikes 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:20.680 me as a game here that the Packers, even in Baltimore, 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:22.840 are gonna roll. It's uncomfortable, right because it's on the road. 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:24.800 It's five and a half. That's just a dead number. 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:27.880 If Lamar Jackson was at full health, I would feel 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:30.559 less comfortable with it. But he's gonna if he plays, 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:32.319 is gonna be limited, not gonna be able to run 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:34.040 as much. The passing game is not really working. And 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:36.839 if it's Huntley, like, good job coming back against the 0:08:36.840 --> 0:08:39.640 Browns thankfully and covering that spread for me, But I 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:41.319 have no faith that he's gonna be able to really 0:08:41.360 --> 0:08:44.200 attack this offense. So for now I like him at 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:45.719 five and a half. But I'm interested to hear your 0:08:45.720 --> 0:08:46.160 thoughts on that. 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:48.480 I don't hate to play at all, and what you 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:52.840 mentioned about the Raven's decimated secondary that against Aaron Rodgers, 0:08:52.960 --> 0:08:55.240 I mean, you know, whatever tow is messed up, I mean, 0:08:55.320 --> 0:08:57.720 he's gonna be able to get his you know, I 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:00.880 think that this number I think is sitting there. It's 0:09:00.960 --> 0:09:03.440 kind of like a middle number where it's if Lamar plays, 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:05.839 is gonna tick down to maybe four. Ifdley plays, maybe 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:07.560 this goes up to seven, because like you said, five 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:09.240 and a half is kind of that dead zone where 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:10.560 it's an insignificant number. 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:12.280 So I don't hate the play. 0:09:13.160 --> 0:09:16.480 I'm kind of feeling if Huntley plays, what about the 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:19.440 over Yeah yeah, maybe you got like I mean we 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:22.160 saw Miles Garrett that scoop and score. You know, maybe 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:25.360 Huntley makes a mistake, whereas if it's Lamar, maybe even 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:27.760 almost lower scoring, they go even closer to the best 0:09:27.880 --> 0:09:30.360 less mistakes. So that's kind of how I'm looking to 0:09:30.360 --> 0:09:33.080 attack it. If Huntley's ended up, if he ends up playing, 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:34.760 I'm gonna look probably towards the over because I think 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:35.080 you're right. 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:37.000 The Packers are gonna get whatever they want on offense. 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:39.320 Yeah, it's forty three and a half, that's not you know, 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:40.960 you don't need any sort of crew that's low. 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:42.839 I mean, there are a lot of low totals. 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:45.679 This week, by the way, So I'm totally good with 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:48.839 that play. And yeah, I agree with you. I mean, man, 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:52.079 I'd almost rather Lamar play in this game because only 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:55.679 because I right, because I think that realistically, if he plays, 0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:58.560 and you know, I love Lamar Jackson, but first of all, 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:00.640 he has not played well in several weeks, whether it 0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:03.080 was the illness that he's been down, whatever that is 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:04.600 that he was on the injury report in the almost 0:10:04.600 --> 0:10:07.120 three separate weeks, but his ankles just you know, it's 0:10:07.160 --> 0:10:09.120 not gonna be one hundred percent. There's no way which 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:12.000 will limit them, and it's almost better than having Huntley's 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:13.400 additional mobility. 0:10:13.400 --> 0:10:15.280 But either way, at five and a half, that's the point. 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:17.680 If Lamar plays and the spread goes to I'm still 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:19.720 fine laying five and a half even assuming that Lamar 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:22.320 suits up, given that he there's no way he's going 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:24.360 to be one hundred percent For a guy who relies 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:25.440 on his legs so much. 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:27.080 All right, number two, pick? What do you got? 0:10:27.400 --> 0:10:29.760 Okay, I'm gonna go with the Steelers. I think this 0:10:29.840 --> 0:10:32.560 number is ticking down. I had plus two that I 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:36.000 wrote down, but anything above pick, I'm on Pittsburgh in 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:36.440 this game. 0:10:36.520 --> 0:10:39.200 This is a classic Mike Tomlin spine. 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:41.120 It's almost like we're beating a dead horse because you know, 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:45.400 the Steers keep being plays as underdogs. But Tomlin, he's 0:10:45.520 --> 0:10:47.640 covering sixty six percent of his games as a dog 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:50.480 as a Steelers head coach. Make that over eighty percent 0:10:50.880 --> 0:10:54.200 as a home underdog. And this Tennessee team, it's a 0:10:54.200 --> 0:10:56.480 team I like to back as Underdog's not his favorite. 0:10:56.520 --> 0:10:57.800 So this is kind of a spot where I like 0:10:57.840 --> 0:11:01.280 to fade Mike Rabel. He is fourteen nineteen to one 0:11:01.320 --> 0:11:03.719 as a favorite since taking over in Tennessee. So there 0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:07.040 are some trends going in the Steelers favor. And also 0:11:07.520 --> 0:11:10.360 just this is more of an eye test thing. I've 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:12.120 been fading the Steelers. I didn't believe in them earlier 0:11:12.120 --> 0:11:14.680 in the year. It almost seems like Ben Roethlisberger's having 0:11:14.720 --> 0:11:17.320 like this is the last stand. You know, he's trying 0:11:17.320 --> 0:11:21.160 to will the team home Gunslinger mentality really just he 0:11:21.280 --> 0:11:23.120 knows this as his last year. He's leaving it all 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:25.400 out there. So I kind of like that motivation for 0:11:25.400 --> 0:11:28.520 the Steelers. They had some extra time to prep and 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:31.280 this Tennessee offense without Derrick Henry, who have they beaten 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:33.319 of late? They lost to the Texans, they got blown 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:35.000 out by the Patriots. They get to buy and beat 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:37.760 a dead Jaguars team, So I'm not. 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:38.600 Impressed with the Titans. 0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:41.600 They're twenty third in EPA per play since Derrick Henry 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:43.959 went down. So again, this is not a team I'm 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:47.320 looking to back as a favorite on the road against 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:49.960 the Steelers, team that is facing their season right here. 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:51.640 If they lose this game, that's probably it for them 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:56.000 in the playoff race. So again, Roethlisberger's last stand, Tomlin 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:58.520 as a dog, all these things are putting me towards 0:11:58.559 --> 0:12:01.160 the Steelers. Again, this is still in that one and 0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:04.640 a half two range, great teaser spot, but I like 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:06.520 the Steelers at anything above a pick. I think that 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:07.280 they win this game. 0:12:07.640 --> 0:12:09.920 So our consensus line at Betting Bros. Is one, but 0:12:09.960 --> 0:12:12.280 there are twos out there still at bet MGM, for example, 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:13.839 there's two I'll give it to you two, because we've 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:15.640 got some twos out there as well. Yeah, you're welcome, 0:12:16.400 --> 0:12:18.120 take the money a lot. It doesn't matter, whatever, it 0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:20.719 does matter. Yeah, So I think, first of all, I 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:24.319 mean I'm full on the I back Mike Tomlin in 0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:28.120 the spot of you're an underdog, you know, get your 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:31.000 backs against the wall. When he's a favorite, run run 0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:32.840 as far away as you possibly can, because that's what 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.480 does It's interesting here because I do think that this 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:38.079 is a game that does favor the Steelers in a 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:40.640 couple of ways. Number One, it's obviously like their defense 0:12:40.960 --> 0:12:43.000 has just been getting you know, whether it's been injury 0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:46.320 or not, like they've been getting torched. The Titans cannot 0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:48.319 do that at this point, right, That is not how 0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:52.079 they are winning games at this point. They're playing very conservatively. 0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:54.240 But it's different when you're running back that you have 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:58.520 is you know, Deonta Foreman instead of Derrick Henry. They're 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.240 obviously down a j Brown Leo Jones just came back, 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:03.400 but they were not pushing the ball down field. They 0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:07.240 have no interest in sort of having an explosive style 0:13:07.320 --> 0:13:08.720 game which can exploit. 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:10.480 Whatever the Steelers deficiencies are on offense. 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:12.600 And on defense, and hopefully they get a little healthier 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:14.840 by the way, because they've obviously, you know, hopefully Watt's 0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:19.120 able to play Hayden and you're right about like whether 0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:21.520 it is just like hey man, Ben's out after this year. 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:23.600 Let's just go, you know, to the wall and do 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:24.200 what we can. 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:26.880 They are really just basically saying, like, you know what, 0:13:26.960 --> 0:13:28.800 our offense seems to work better a little bit when 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:30.559 we go no huddle, when we hurry it up, when 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:32.360 we move it and just let Ben sort of find 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:34.480 what it is, and it does like they are able 0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:36.960 to put up points here. And the Titans defense is good, 0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:40.400 but they have been sort of punching above their weight 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:42.640 class a little bit in that it's been fluky. Like 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:44.560 we mentioned when they beat the Rams, right, it was like, 0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:46.560 oh wow, you know they went and be the Red. 0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:47.679 Like that was very fluky. 0:13:47.720 --> 0:13:50.320 They had to pick six right, their defense sort of play. 0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:52.080 That's how they've been getting away with this. When you 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:54.360 just look at how is our offense playing, how's their 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:58.880 defense playing, it's not that impressive of late, right, So yeah, 0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:01.680 I don't hate it, like I have been on the 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:04.120 wrong side like the Steelers against the Bengals in that 0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:05.400 game where they went in there and I was like, 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:07.680 this is Mike toWin spot and they're gonna be pissed 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:10.000 off every getting and they've just got the doors. 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:11.840 Blown off them. I've been gun chat a little bit 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:12.360 with them. Go ahead. 0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:15.160 Sorry, No, the Titans seem like a team. Again, I 0:14:15.160 --> 0:14:17.839 don't like backing them as favorites. I like back in 0:14:17.840 --> 0:14:19.920 those underdogs because they punch up and down to their 0:14:19.920 --> 0:14:22.440 weight class. And again, I'm not saying the Steelers are 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:23.960 a good team. I don't think that they're doing anything 0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:26.000 come playoff time or if they even make the playoffs, 0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:29.680 but they can whire. The Titans should be laying points here, 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:32.120 Like what have the Titans done? They had three point 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:34.120 eight yards per play against the Jags. I get that 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:37.120 game was over the second started, but it's not like 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:42.000 the Titans have been some world beating nine to fourteen. 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:44.760 This is a different team than what started the year. 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:49.440 So I'm not rushing to back this offense right now, 0:14:49.480 --> 0:14:52.080 going on the road to a hostile Hinz Field in 0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:53.160 a must win situation. 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:55.960 This is a clear spots back with Steelers. 0:14:57.640 --> 0:14:59.560 I don't disagree with what you're saying. 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:00.920 I don't know if I'm gonna be on it because 0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:03.560 I'm terrified, but I agree especially and again another thing 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:04.840 where they're getting too not a. 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:06.920 Bad teaser piece as well, if you can tease them 0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:08.720 up past that touchdown. All right. 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:12.160 So originally in the week I was gonna, I mean, 0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:15.160 it's all gross right now, I was gonna go with 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:19.480 the Texans against the Jaguars because I feel like the 0:15:19.640 --> 0:15:21.600 quote sharp side and when you look at the teams 0:15:21.640 --> 0:15:23.480 like the Jaguars, I understood why they were at the 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:25.920 time three point favorites. But I was not going to 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:27.640 back an Urban Meyer team. And I think that he 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:30.240 sort of is the model buster in terms of terrible 0:15:30.880 --> 0:15:33.320 teams that fire their coach, like especially this, like you 0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:36.320 could definitely see a rally around the flag type of 0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:38.920 effort from the Jaguars. So I went with an equally 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.480 ugly sort of dog that I've gone with, and it's 0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:43.040 the Jets. And now when I took the Jets, and 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:44.720 when I logged it again in our betting pros app 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:48.120 they were getting ten. Right after that, right when I 0:15:48.160 --> 0:15:49.560 decided I was gonna do it, we got the Jaalen 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:51.840 Waddell news that he is on the reserve COVID list 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:53.360 now ready. I don't know if you've seen anything. I 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:55.560