Speaker 1: Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought
Speaker 1: to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: Find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is
Speaker 1: time to talk about our best bets if we can,
Speaker 1: given everything that's going on in week fifteen here in
Speaker 1: the NFL season. Great guest today to do that with
Speaker 1: me it is Read Wallach, senior editor over at bets Sided.
Speaker 1: Find him on Twitter at his name at read Wallak.
Speaker 1: By the way, did I pronounce her last? I didn't
Speaker 1: even ask? Is that how you pronounce her?
Speaker 2: Yeah? All natural? That was great?
Speaker 3: Yeah, beautiful? No, no prap? What's that's w A L
Speaker 3: l A h? Just you know on Twitter?
Speaker 1: Read Thank you for joining me today in what I
Speaker 1: admit is probably the most difficult like Thursday show to
Speaker 1: talk about our weekend best bets because the COVID outbreak.
Speaker 3: But I mean that's why I brought you on. I
Speaker 3: want the best, you know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, this is this is when we thrive.
Speaker 4: Adversity guy is getting ruled out left and right, spreads
Speaker 4: up in arms from the openers. This is when you know,
Speaker 4: the going gets tough, the tough get going.
Speaker 1: This is gonna be I think we can be honest
Speaker 1: about it. Okay, we're gonna recommend some bets, but obviously
Speaker 1: COVID maytime. One of the bets that I'm going to
Speaker 1: recommend already has been moving because of COVID news. They
Speaker 1: can just before we start a quick so everybody listening,
Speaker 1: you don't have to run and bet these right now.
Speaker 3: Take your time, like see how things develop.
Speaker 1: But as of right now, this is where we're going
Speaker 1: to land on some stuff, and we'll do our best
Speaker 1: to give some caveats.
Speaker 3: All right, we're going to get into it.
Speaker 1: This again is our three best bets of the weekend, spread, money, line, total,
Speaker 1: whatever we want to do, and a couple of housekeeping
Speaker 1: items before we do. Subscribe to our YouTube channel YouTube
Speaker 1: dot com slash Betting Pros later today might be probably
Speaker 1: after or before you listen this. Who knows, I'm doing
Speaker 1: a props betting live stream, or I'm just gonna come out,
Speaker 1: use our Betting Pros cheat sheet and go through some
Speaker 1: of my favorite player props for the Thursday night game.
Speaker 1: I'll do the same on Saturday. To do that and
Speaker 1: our latest offer from bet MGM new customers when you
Speaker 1: use the code juice one hundred. Can bet ten dollars
Speaker 1: on any NFL team to win their game, win two
Speaker 1: hundred dollars in free bets if that team scores a
Speaker 1: touchdown again New Customers Cojuice one hundred that is available
Speaker 1: in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona,
Speaker 1: and Wyoming. All right, quick, let's run through last week.
Speaker 1: Our guest Pat Fitzmorris went one and two with his
Speaker 1: best bets. He hit on Jacksonville and Tennessee under forty
Speaker 1: three and a half. He missed on the Jets getting
Speaker 1: five and a half from the Saints and the Bengals
Speaker 1: getting one from the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3: I went two and one.
Speaker 1: As everybody knows, I took the other side of that game.
Speaker 1: Don't really know if that turn was the actual right side,
Speaker 1: but it was a winner in that one. Another game
Speaker 1: that was probably the wrong side but was also a
Speaker 1: winner for me was the Ravens getting two and a
Speaker 1: half in that game. I did miss on the Falcons
Speaker 1: and the Panthers under forty two and a half, So
Speaker 1: I'm now twenty one and twenty one on the year.
Speaker 1: Let's do better. We'll start today. Read you are our
Speaker 1: guest to get the first pick.
Speaker 3: What do you got?
Speaker 4: Yeah, So I'm going to go with the Patriots plus
Speaker 4: two and a half against the Colts. I think that's
Speaker 4: pretty much the market number as of this record, and
Speaker 4: the three picks I made are as of now not
Speaker 4: COVID effected, so hopefully that holds up.
Speaker 2: But this one in particular really caught my eye.
Speaker 4: These are two teams coming off of a buy in
Speaker 4: Indianapolis and New England, and this was a pick them
Speaker 4: in the look ahead market. So I find it fascinating
Speaker 4: that this line has shifted two and a half points
Speaker 4: towards the Colts.
Speaker 2: This was a spot I was looking at back Indianapolis.
Speaker 4: Actually, I think New England's a little overvalued in the market,
Speaker 4: but now it feels like everyone feels that way because
Speaker 4: now the line's gotten the other way.
Speaker 2: So again, I make this a pick. So I'm gonna
Speaker 2: play New England.
Speaker 4: And really, you know Colts linebacker saying we want Mac
Speaker 4: Jones to beat us after you know he only threw
Speaker 4: three attempts against Buffalo, Well that might actually be a
Speaker 4: problem because the Colts do have a good run defense.
Speaker 2: But they're actually sixteenth in EPA per pass.
Speaker 4: So I think mac Jones is going to have some
Speaker 4: success through the air on the fast Track at Lucas
Speaker 4: Oil Stadium, and listen, mac Jones. He doesn't make mistakes.
Speaker 4: He's gonna go through the reads, He's going to go
Speaker 4: through the progressions, make the easy pass, Carson Wentz. You
Speaker 4: know that he's gonna make some turnover, He's going to
Speaker 4: make some crazy passes. He's gonna give New England a
Speaker 4: So I like New England as an underdog, and also
Speaker 4: I think this is an amazing teaser. Spot got that
Speaker 4: over a touchdown at eight and a half, So yeah,
Speaker 4: give me New England.
Speaker 2: I think that they're the better team and this should
Speaker 2: be a pick them.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I love it as a teaser for sure. With two
Speaker 1: and a half, you get it to eight and a half.
Speaker 1: I do love that. I have a lot of trouble
Speaker 1: with this game.
Speaker 3: Read.
Speaker 1: First of all, I've had a lot of trouble with
Speaker 1: the paths the whole year, right because I've sort of
Speaker 1: been on the whole Pats are overrated, then, like this
Speaker 1: is just what it is.
Speaker 3: They're not.
Speaker 1: You know, if you have to make Macdones beat you.
Speaker 1: I think Macdones is a fine rookie quarterback, but I
Speaker 1: don't trust him to be able to carry the load
Speaker 1: necessarily if you can't run the ball. But it is
Speaker 1: interesting to me that this line is two and a half, Like,
Speaker 1: you're right, this struck me as a pick them game,
Speaker 1: so there must be money coming in though right on
Speaker 1: the cults, I assume that sharp betters are backing the Colts,
Speaker 1: which I don't fully understand. Like if you're getting to
Speaker 1: do you think this gets to three? By the way
Speaker 1: it's been sitting out there two.
Speaker 3: And a half.
Speaker 4: I feel like this is if this goes to three,
Speaker 4: everyone starts immediately betting New England, and then it goes
Speaker 4: back to two and a half. I feel like this
Speaker 4: closes two and a half. Maybe it comes down a
Speaker 4: little bit again. I just what happened over the bye
Speaker 4: week that is changing this market to and half once.
Speaker 4: I agree New England is overvalued in the macro of
Speaker 4: the NFL, but in this particular spot, give me Bill Belichick.
Speaker 2: As an underdog.
Speaker 4: You know, I think mac Jones is able to keep
Speaker 4: this game close enough where New England's a chance to
Speaker 4: win at the end.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and by the way, I mean, Buffalo had a
Speaker 1: perfectly fine run defense and New England they knew they
Speaker 1: were going to run. They ran the same play and
Speaker 1: they just ran down their throats. So as good as
Speaker 1: the Cults are, I mean, we saw again Leonard Fournette
Speaker 1: have no trouble running the ball in the starly against
Speaker 1: them as well. So yeah, man, it is weird, right
Speaker 1: because both teams are off a bye, so you would
Speaker 1: think what has changed suddenly to make this spread sort
Speaker 1: of start to move and again now it's been hanging
Speaker 1: at it two and a half for a little bit,
Speaker 1: but you're right. Early on it was, you know, one
Speaker 1: point or something like that.
Speaker 3: It was very interesting.
Speaker 1: I look, if I have to go away, I'm certainly
Speaker 1: taking the Pats with the points for sure. If I
Speaker 1: have to go away, I'm probably staying away from it
Speaker 1: because man, I don't I just I don't know. I
Speaker 1: don't have a good read on the Patriots team yet
Speaker 1: or though or the Colts. By the way, the Colts
Speaker 1: sometimes come out there and you're like, oh, you're the
Speaker 1: best team in the NFL. I get it now, But
Speaker 1: they also come out there and Carson Wentz is about
Speaker 1: to throw a ball left handed, you know, right to
Speaker 1: the linebacker and have it run back for a pick Sixugh,
Speaker 1: the worst, the worst. So I'm I leaned towards their way,
Speaker 1: but I agree with you. It's one of my favorite
Speaker 1: teaser pieces to get the Pats definitely up to eight
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 3: So all right, I like it there. I'm gonna be honest.
Speaker 1: I don't love a lot of games this weekend like
Speaker 1: I did, Like I liked the Eagles, which were laying
Speaker 1: four and a half against Washington before it moved to
Speaker 1: seven because of all the COVID news, I'm sure, and
Speaker 1: all the injuries stuff like that. So I will be
Speaker 1: honest that a lot of my picks are a little lukewarm,
Speaker 1: but we make picks. We're fine. I'm going to go
Speaker 1: with the Packers laying five and a half to the Ravens.
Speaker 1: It was four and a half when I looked at
Speaker 1: it when it opened. It's a dead number. It's a
Speaker 1: weird sort of number. But I think the bottom line
Speaker 1: is I don't love what I hear out of the
Speaker 1: Ravens camp about Lamar. I really don't. And even earlier
Speaker 1: today it just said he's going to be like they're
Speaker 1: going to take it right up until game time to
Speaker 1: know whether or not he's going to go, So even
Speaker 1: if he goes, he's going to be limited, Like this.
Speaker 3: Is just what we're going to see.
Speaker 1: And I think the fact that they signed Josh Johnson
Speaker 1: sort of suggests, Okay, we are really concerned whether or
Speaker 1: not he's going to be able to go. But if
Speaker 1: he does go, if he doesn't go, as much as
Speaker 1: this game is important to him, every game is important
Speaker 1: to them, Like they're probably going to win this division
Speaker 1: as much as every team is right there, and the
Speaker 1: same sort of thing. I think in the end, they'll
Speaker 1: probably be able to pull it out. You attack the
Speaker 1: Packers for the most part on the ground, and I
Speaker 1: think a big part of their ground game is the
Speaker 1: fact that Lamar Jackson is so mobile. So if he
Speaker 1: does play and his mobility is compromised, as I would expect,
Speaker 1: that is going to affect it. And if not, like
Speaker 1: you know, kudos to Huntley, but not sort of the same.
Speaker 1: And really I just don't know how they expect to
Speaker 1: stop the Packers. I know Aaron Rodgers had a quote
Speaker 1: setback with the toe and everything like that, but what
Speaker 1: you have is last week, I like the Ravens because
Speaker 1: I said, you know what, all their injuries to the secondary,
Speaker 1: which is totally decimated by injuries, that's not as big
Speaker 1: a deal against team like the Browns, who doesn't really
Speaker 1: have that prototypical number one or number two receiver, number
Speaker 1: three receiver, that's not how they.
Speaker 3: Run their offense.
Speaker 1: But here you've got DeVante Adams and you've got the
Speaker 1: number two pass offense in terms of DVOA against the
Speaker 1: twenty sixth defensive DVOA against the pass team in the Ravens.
Speaker 1: So with their injuries with Lamar Jackson, this just strikes
Speaker 1: me as a game here that the Packers, even in Baltimore,
Speaker 1: are gonna roll. It's uncomfortable, right because it's on the road.
Speaker 1: It's five and a half. That's just a dead number.
Speaker 1: If Lamar Jackson was at full health, I would feel
Speaker 1: less comfortable with it. But he's gonna if he plays,
Speaker 1: is gonna be limited, not gonna be able to run
Speaker 1: as much. The passing game is not really working. And
Speaker 1: if it's Huntley, like, good job coming back against the
Speaker 1: Browns thankfully and covering that spread for me, But I
Speaker 1: have no faith that he's gonna be able to really
Speaker 1: attack this offense. So for now I like him at
Speaker 1: five and a half. But I'm interested to hear your
Speaker 1: thoughts on that.
Speaker 4: I don't hate to play at all, and what you
Speaker 4: mentioned about the Raven's decimated secondary that against Aaron Rodgers,
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, whatever tow is messed up, I mean,
Speaker 4: he's gonna be able to get his you know, I
Speaker 4: think that this number I think is sitting there. It's
Speaker 4: kind of like a middle number where it's if Lamar plays,
Speaker 4: is gonna tick down to maybe four. Ifdley plays, maybe
Speaker 4: this goes up to seven, because like you said, five
Speaker 4: and a half is kind of that dead zone where
Speaker 4: it's an insignificant number.
Speaker 2: So I don't hate the play.
Speaker 4: I'm kind of feeling if Huntley plays, what about the
Speaker 4: over Yeah yeah, maybe you got like I mean we
Speaker 4: saw Miles Garrett that scoop and score. You know, maybe
Speaker 4: Huntley makes a mistake, whereas if it's Lamar, maybe even
Speaker 4: almost lower scoring, they go even closer to the best
Speaker 4: less mistakes. So that's kind of how I'm looking to
Speaker 4: attack it. If Huntley's ended up, if he ends up playing,
Speaker 4: I'm gonna look probably towards the over because I think
Speaker 4: you're right.
Speaker 2: The Packers are gonna get whatever they want on offense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's forty three and a half, that's not you know,
Speaker 1: you don't need any sort of crew that's low.
Speaker 3: I mean, there are a lot of low totals.
Speaker 1: This week, by the way, So I'm totally good with
Speaker 1: that play. And yeah, I agree with you. I mean, man,
Speaker 1: I'd almost rather Lamar play in this game because only
Speaker 1: because I right, because I think that realistically, if he plays,
Speaker 1: and you know, I love Lamar Jackson, but first of all,
Speaker 1: he has not played well in several weeks, whether it
Speaker 1: was the illness that he's been down, whatever that is
Speaker 1: that he was on the injury report in the almost
Speaker 1: three separate weeks, but his ankles just you know, it's
Speaker 1: not gonna be one hundred percent. There's no way which
Speaker 1: will limit them, and it's almost better than having Huntley's
Speaker 1: additional mobility.
Speaker 3: But either way, at five and a half, that's the point.
Speaker 1: If Lamar plays and the spread goes to I'm still
Speaker 1: fine laying five and a half even assuming that Lamar
Speaker 1: suits up, given that he there's no way he's going
Speaker 1: to be one hundred percent For a guy who relies
Speaker 1: on his legs so much.
Speaker 3: All right, number two, pick? What do you got?
Speaker 4: Okay, I'm gonna go with the Steelers. I think this
Speaker 4: number is ticking down. I had plus two that I
Speaker 4: wrote down, but anything above pick, I'm on Pittsburgh in
Speaker 4: this game.
Speaker 2: This is a classic Mike Tomlin spine.
Speaker 4: It's almost like we're beating a dead horse because you know,
Speaker 4: the Steers keep being plays as underdogs. But Tomlin, he's
Speaker 4: covering sixty six percent of his games as a dog
Speaker 4: as a Steelers head coach. Make that over eighty percent
Speaker 4: as a home underdog. And this Tennessee team, it's a
Speaker 4: team I like to back as Underdog's not his favorite.
Speaker 4: So this is kind of a spot where I like
Speaker 4: to fade Mike Rabel. He is fourteen nineteen to one
Speaker 4: as a favorite since taking over in Tennessee. So there
Speaker 4: are some trends going in the Steelers favor. And also
Speaker 4: just this is more of an eye test thing. I've
Speaker 4: been fading the Steelers. I didn't believe in them earlier
Speaker 4: in the year. It almost seems like Ben Roethlisberger's having
Speaker 4: like this is the last stand. You know, he's trying
Speaker 4: to will the team home Gunslinger mentality really just he
Speaker 4: knows this as his last year. He's leaving it all
Speaker 4: out there. So I kind of like that motivation for
Speaker 4: the Steelers. They had some extra time to prep and
Speaker 4: this Tennessee offense without Derrick Henry, who have they beaten
Speaker 4: of late? They lost to the Texans, they got blown
Speaker 4: out by the Patriots. They get to buy and beat
Speaker 4: a dead Jaguars team, So I'm not.
Speaker 2: Impressed with the Titans.
Speaker 4: They're twenty third in EPA per play since Derrick Henry
Speaker 4: went down. So again, this is not a team I'm
Speaker 4: looking to back as a favorite on the road against
Speaker 4: the Steelers, team that is facing their season right here.
Speaker 4: If they lose this game, that's probably it for them
Speaker 4: in the playoff race. So again, Roethlisberger's last stand, Tomlin
Speaker 4: as a dog, all these things are putting me towards
Speaker 4: the Steelers. Again, this is still in that one and
Speaker 4: a half two range, great teaser spot, but I like
Speaker 4: the Steelers at anything above a pick. I think that
Speaker 4: they win this game.
Speaker 1: So our consensus line at Betting Bros. Is one, but
Speaker 1: there are twos out there still at bet MGM, for example,
Speaker 1: there's two I'll give it to you two, because we've
Speaker 1: got some twos out there as well. Yeah, you're welcome,
Speaker 1: take the money a lot. It doesn't matter, whatever, it
Speaker 1: does matter. Yeah, So I think, first of all, I
Speaker 1: mean I'm full on the I back Mike Tomlin in
Speaker 1: the spot of you're an underdog, you know, get your
Speaker 1: backs against the wall. When he's a favorite, run run
Speaker 1: as far away as you possibly can, because that's what
Speaker 1: does It's interesting here because I do think that this
Speaker 1: is a game that does favor the Steelers in a
Speaker 1: couple of ways. Number One, it's obviously like their defense
Speaker 1: has just been getting you know, whether it's been injury
Speaker 1: or not, like they've been getting torched. The Titans cannot
Speaker 1: do that at this point, right, That is not how
Speaker 1: they are winning games at this point. They're playing very conservatively.
Speaker 1: But it's different when you're running back that you have
Speaker 1: is you know, Deonta Foreman instead of Derrick Henry. They're
Speaker 1: obviously down a j Brown Leo Jones just came back,
Speaker 1: but they were not pushing the ball down field. They
Speaker 1: have no interest in sort of having an explosive style
Speaker 1: game which can exploit.
Speaker 3: Whatever the Steelers deficiencies are on offense.
Speaker 1: And on defense, and hopefully they get a little healthier
Speaker 1: by the way, because they've obviously, you know, hopefully Watt's
Speaker 1: able to play Hayden and you're right about like whether
Speaker 1: it is just like hey man, Ben's out after this year.
Speaker 3: Let's just go, you know, to the wall and do
Speaker 3: what we can.
Speaker 1: They are really just basically saying, like, you know what,
Speaker 1: our offense seems to work better a little bit when
Speaker 1: we go no huddle, when we hurry it up, when
Speaker 1: we move it and just let Ben sort of find
Speaker 1: what it is, and it does like they are able
Speaker 1: to put up points here. And the Titans defense is good,
Speaker 1: but they have been sort of punching above their weight
Speaker 1: class a little bit in that it's been fluky. Like
Speaker 1: we mentioned when they beat the Rams, right, it was like,
Speaker 1: oh wow, you know they went and be the Red.
Speaker 3: Like that was very fluky.
Speaker 1: They had to pick six right, their defense sort of play.
Speaker 1: That's how they've been getting away with this. When you
Speaker 1: just look at how is our offense playing, how's their
Speaker 1: defense playing, it's not that impressive of late, right, So yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't hate it, like I have been on the
Speaker 1: wrong side like the Steelers against the Bengals in that
Speaker 1: game where they went in there and I was like,
Speaker 1: this is Mike toWin spot and they're gonna be pissed
Speaker 1: off every getting and they've just got the doors.
Speaker 3: Blown off them. I've been gun chat a little bit
Speaker 3: with them. Go ahead.
Speaker 4: Sorry, No, the Titans seem like a team. Again, I
Speaker 4: don't like backing them as favorites. I like back in
Speaker 4: those underdogs because they punch up and down to their
Speaker 4: weight class. And again, I'm not saying the Steelers are
Speaker 4: a good team. I don't think that they're doing anything
Speaker 4: come playoff time or if they even make the playoffs,
Speaker 4: but they can whire. The Titans should be laying points here,
Speaker 4: Like what have the Titans done? They had three point
Speaker 4: eight yards per play against the Jags. I get that
Speaker 4: game was over the second started, but it's not like
Speaker 4: the Titans have been some world beating nine to fourteen.
Speaker 4: This is a different team than what started the year.
Speaker 4: So I'm not rushing to back this offense right now,
Speaker 4: going on the road to a hostile Hinz Field in
Speaker 4: a must win situation.
Speaker 2: This is a clear spots back with Steelers.
Speaker 3: I don't disagree with what you're saying.
Speaker 1: I don't know if I'm gonna be on it because
Speaker 1: I'm terrified, but I agree especially and again another thing
Speaker 1: where they're getting too not a.
Speaker 3: Bad teaser piece as well, if you can tease them
Speaker 3: up past that touchdown. All right.
Speaker 1: So originally in the week I was gonna, I mean,
Speaker 1: it's all gross right now, I was gonna go with
Speaker 1: the Texans against the Jaguars because I feel like the
Speaker 1: quote sharp side and when you look at the teams
Speaker 1: like the Jaguars, I understood why they were at the
Speaker 1: time three point favorites. But I was not going to
Speaker 1: back an Urban Meyer team. And I think that he
Speaker 1: sort of is the model buster in terms of terrible
Speaker 1: teams that fire their coach, like especially this, like you
Speaker 1: could definitely see a rally around the flag type of
Speaker 1: effort from the Jaguars. So I went with an equally
Speaker 1: ugly sort of dog that I've gone with, and it's
Speaker 1: the Jets. And now when I took the Jets, and
Speaker 1: when I logged it again in our betting pros app
Speaker 1: they were getting ten. Right after that, right when I
Speaker 1: decided I was gonna do it, we got the Jaalen
Speaker 1: Waddell news that he is on the reserve COVID list
Speaker 1: now ready. I don't know if you've seen anything. I
Speaker 1: didn't see that he actually tested positive. I don't know
Speaker 1: if he was just a close contact. But either way,
Speaker 1: if you're put on the list on a Thursday, I
Speaker 1: it does not sound like you're gonna be able to play.
Speaker 2: Like.
Speaker 1: He hasn't been ruled out as far as I right,
Speaker 1: I didn't see he was ruled out, but.
Speaker 4: You have to think probably out for this weekend. And listen,
Speaker 4: he's a huge part of their offense.
Speaker 3: He oh my god, he's uh to a his binky.
Speaker 2: You know, he is his go to receiver. Not downfield.
Speaker 4: He average is like four yards of catch, but he's
Speaker 4: his go to guys. This really makes it a difficult
Speaker 4: passing attack for this Dolphins team. I wonder how they're
Speaker 4: going to adjust. Especially they're coming off of buy so
Speaker 4: they were prepping for this game. They're trying to get
Speaker 4: the playoff race. So yeah, no, continue with your handicap.
Speaker 1: I mean, so no, it's fine. So I headed at ten.
Speaker 1: It's now the consensus line is nine and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna stick with it because it doesn't really matter. Also,
Speaker 1: I think there are a couple things. They've obviously got
Speaker 1: COVID issues on that team. Every running back right now
Speaker 1: it tested positive for COVID. They may be off. I'm
Speaker 1: actually expecting Miles Gaskin to come off, maybe Savan Akhmed,
Speaker 1: you know, who knows. They maybe they'll get Malcolm brown back,
Speaker 1: who knows. But they've got a COVID ish on that team, which,
Speaker 1: by the way, suggests this is a game which I
Speaker 1: might be fine to take now because I do think
Speaker 1: look of Wattle tested positive, If DeVante Parker test positive,
Speaker 1: if Mike a SICKI test, like, you've got issues there
Speaker 1: going on with that team. And either way, I mean, look,
Speaker 1: a receiver being out generally, it's not something that's going
Speaker 1: to move this spread very much, right, Like that's the thing.
Speaker 1: It's half a point, and I assume that's why. But regardless,
Speaker 1: Wattle certainly is the biggest part of that offense where
Speaker 1: it is. And the Dolphins, man, I don't know, man,
Speaker 1: I'm interested your thoughts on them generally because when I
Speaker 1: look at them, I knew they were better than this
Speaker 1: team to start out one and so like they weren't
Speaker 1: one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they're
Speaker 1: rolling right now. But other than that, Ravens Win, Panthers, Texans, Jets, Giants.
Speaker 1: It's not like they're world beaters or anything like that.
Speaker 1: The Jets are terrible, and they're terrible this year against
Speaker 1: the spread, right, they're three and ten, like so, the
Speaker 1: Jets are not a team that you want to back.
Speaker 1: And I made fun of Pat last week, who took
Speaker 1: them against the Saints. I was like, there's no way
Speaker 1: I'm taking a bet. But regardless, and they've gotten Elijah
Speaker 1: More but they are going to get Michael Carter back,
Speaker 1: which I do think is you know, something that's at
Speaker 1: least gonna make a difference because he's incredibly talented. He's
Speaker 1: a big part of their offense going in. We don't
Speaker 1: know again, what this Dolphins offense gonna look like. Who's
Speaker 1: gonna be playing running back, if Wild's out, if they
Speaker 1: have more COVID cases. And when it was eight and
Speaker 1: a half, I leaned the Jets when I saw that,
Speaker 1: because again, these two teams have played before. The Dolphins
Speaker 1: won by seven points. They do not strike me as
Speaker 1: a team who should be double digit favorites over anyone
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Now, again, this is nine and a half.
Speaker 1: So whatever, But basically, this just doesn't seem like that
Speaker 1: the Jets are a terrible football team, but they don't
Speaker 1: like they don't mail it in right like Sala has
Speaker 1: them playing still hard, they just don't have the personnel
Speaker 1: and they randomly put up like spirited efforts here to
Speaker 1: put up a game. I think this is the type
Speaker 1: of game that even if the Dolphins sort of jump
Speaker 1: out to a lead and get there, they don't have
Speaker 1: the type of offense I think that's gonna be able
Speaker 1: to put away apps in the defensive score.
Speaker 3: I could see the Jets having a backdoor cover here.
Speaker 1: So it's a second divisional game, right Like those games
Speaker 1: are always just a little tighter than you think they
Speaker 1: should be in this one. So it's disgusting, and I
Speaker 1: hate backing the Jets, and I'm a Jets fan as
Speaker 1: most people listen, No unfortunately, I was raised in Queens,
Speaker 1: no choice.
Speaker 3: But I don't. I'm not like a backer of them.
Speaker 3: I never back them, but.
Speaker 1: This week, with it being ugly and especially at ten,
Speaker 1: if it gets back to ten, great, but even in
Speaker 1: nine and a half, given the COVID issues that the
Speaker 1: Dolphins are dealing with, read I'm inclined to agree with them.
Speaker 3: How do you see this Dolphins team? Generally? Like, is
Speaker 3: this for real?
Speaker 1: They're six and seven, They're on the precipice of the
Speaker 1: playoff race, that got a schedule they can exploit.
Speaker 4: Now I agree with you on hundred. I think the
Speaker 4: Dolphins are incredibly overrated. I faded them unfortunately with my
Speaker 4: Giants two weeks ago before the buye they were not
Speaker 4: able to cover. Just this isn't a Dolphins team that
Speaker 4: is beating Again, obviously we agree. I think we all
Speaker 4: know the Jets are not a talented team. But again,
Speaker 4: are the Dolphins a team you're rushing to back laying
Speaker 4: ten points?
Speaker 2: I know? And again, the Jets aren't the type of
Speaker 2: team that take.
Speaker 4: Me as a quick factor team such as I know
Speaker 4: urban Meyer was just fired, but urban Meyer Jags.
Speaker 2: That's like a quick team as a team that's gonna
Speaker 2: come out and just lay an egg.
Speaker 4: The Jets have a first year head coach is starting
Speaker 4: to build a program. They have a rookie quarterback that's
Speaker 4: going to at least give an honest effort. So this
Speaker 4: isn't a Dolphins team that's gonna typically pull away. They
Speaker 4: haven't really beat up on lesser competition. I think that
Speaker 4: the spread is too high. I think that the Jets,
Speaker 4: like you said, division second time around, I think that
Speaker 4: the Jets get up of this game. And also it's
Speaker 4: in Miami. Dolphins don't have much of a home field.
Speaker 4: This is not a maybe Miami nightlife beats the Jets.
Speaker 4: But it's not like the Jets are going into a
Speaker 4: hostile Miami like we're about to make a playoff push crowd.
Speaker 4: This is gonna be probably more Jets fans that you know,
Speaker 4: all the New Yorkers going down to Florida for you know,
Speaker 4: the winter.
Speaker 2: Yea, there's probably be more Jet fans than Dolphins fans.
Speaker 4: So yeah, at eight and a half, I was thinking
Speaker 4: maybe tease Miami inside of three.
Speaker 2: But now, all right, this is a no touch for me.
Speaker 2: This line has gone way too high in my opinion.
Speaker 4: I know the Jets are banged up, but again nine
Speaker 4: and a half ten, I lean forwards New York staying
Speaker 4: within this big number.
Speaker 3: If they get If it goes back to ten, I
Speaker 3: I'd like it.
Speaker 1: And again that's that's how I I originally said, all right,
Speaker 1: I'll take this when it got even at nine and
Speaker 1: a half though I still think, Man, I still think
Speaker 1: it's there, and I bet it now because you know
Speaker 1: this is again one like be very careful about betting
Speaker 1: early and.
Speaker 3: So especially especially right now, especially right now.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying, well right generally speaking, like, I
Speaker 1: don't have a problem if you want to make a
Speaker 1: bet on Thursday, but for right now, goodness gracious, but
Speaker 1: I do think if there is a game that you
Speaker 1: feel comfortable with that you want to bet now, this
Speaker 1: probably is one.
Speaker 3: Because we know the.
Speaker 1: Dolphins have a COVID issue going on right now, because
Speaker 1: we've known it forever. So I think the likelihood of
Speaker 1: COVID affecting that team is higher than it is any
Speaker 1: other team almost except for the Browns right in the
Speaker 1: Rams and stuff like that. So I'd be okay if
Speaker 1: you're on the Jets side right now, because I do
Speaker 1: think if anything, this is just going to hurt.
Speaker 3: Probably the Dolphins. Coke from all right, read third bet?
Speaker 3: What do you got?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I'm going with another underdog Bengals. This I got two
Speaker 4: and a half.
Speaker 2: Is that still work?
Speaker 3: It is two and a half?
Speaker 4: Two and a half another game that I can't really
Speaker 4: understand what this line is, So last week in the
Speaker 4: look ahead market.
Speaker 2: And again this isn't like the end all be all.
Speaker 4: It's sometimes a little arbitrary, but the look ahead market
Speaker 4: for this game was Bengals minus three, so that's now
Speaker 4: they're getting nearly three.
Speaker 2: So we're getting a full on switch.
Speaker 4: Let's just what happened in that time spam. They were
Speaker 4: Joe Burrow finger issues. He ended up slinging all over
Speaker 4: the Broncos. He threw for over three hundred yard, slinging
Speaker 4: all over the forty nine ers over three hundred yards
Speaker 4: almost one in overtime. The Broncos be a lion team
Speaker 4: that almost couldn't feel the full roster because.
Speaker 2: Of flu issues, and that was an easy win. They
Speaker 2: were double died your favorites.
Speaker 4: So why is this line flipping from Bengals minus three
Speaker 4: to Broncos minus two and a half? I just I
Speaker 4: can't get there with this number. I make the Bengals
Speaker 4: one point favorites here. So I actually played the Bengals
Speaker 4: on the money line earlier in the week and the
Speaker 4: number keeps going against me, which maybe I'm missing something,
Speaker 4: but here are just a few numbers that make me
Speaker 4: stick by my Bengals piece Bengals are number two in
Speaker 4: defensive rushing success rate this year. This is a Broncos
Speaker 4: offense that's gonna lean on the likes of Javonte Williams
Speaker 4: to kind of establish the run to set up Teddy
Speaker 4: Bridgewater two pass the Broncos in that stat they're thirtieth.
Speaker 2: So if Joe Mixon is able to.
Speaker 4: You know, I know that he's kind of been on
Speaker 4: the injury report, but if he's healthy enough to play,
Speaker 4: he's gonna find success against this Broncos defense that is
Speaker 4: going to get the likes of Jamar Chase open downfield,
Speaker 4: t Higgins get Burrow going. So again, the Bengals have
Speaker 4: a higher rated defense and pretty much all metrics. The
Speaker 4: Broncos have a really concerning special teams metric and they
Speaker 4: have a Denver boost with that they're outside the top
Speaker 4: twenty five and special team special teams DVOA. So there's
Speaker 4: a lot of metrics going towards Cincinnati. For me, maybe
Speaker 4: I'm dead wrong, Dan, maybe you can help me out here,
Speaker 4: but I bet the Bengals again another teaser piece. I
Speaker 4: love give me the better quarterback with Joe Burrow. I
Speaker 4: just think that this is a complete overreaction. I'm in
Speaker 4: complete agreement with you.
Speaker 1: And what's great about this read is that I have
Speaker 1: faded the Bengals all year because I think that they
Speaker 1: have been an overrated team.
Speaker 3: And you know, you just look at DVA It's almost so.
Speaker 1: Even last week. That was one of the reasons why
Speaker 1: I looked at it. I was like, look, the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers are like ninth in DVOA. You know that
Speaker 1: the Bengals are always like, Oh, the Bengals are a
Speaker 1: good team, and they're like eighteenth or nineteenth or wherever
Speaker 1: they are. I think they have been overrated. And I
Speaker 1: was specifically worried about Joe Burrow's finger. He looked fantastic, Yeah, zero,
Speaker 1: zero issues from it, zero, which I was so impressed.
Speaker 1: I've been so impressed with Burrow the whole year. I
Speaker 1: expected him to struggle early in the year as he
Speaker 1: mentally sort of got.
Speaker 2: Over the hurdle of the injury.
Speaker 1: He's been fantastic, basically the most impressed player like with
Speaker 1: him this year. But I completely agree with you, and
Speaker 1: I said about this on Monday. We do like an
Speaker 1: early look aheadline show where we're like, oh, what's your
Speaker 1: instant reaction to this and again, I'm a guy who
Speaker 1: basically has faded the Bengals, and even I think at
Speaker 1: that point it might have been a pick em. Maybe
Speaker 1: they were plus one or something. I was like, oh God,
Speaker 1: give me them his dough like any day of the
Speaker 1: week here. They are a much better team than the
Speaker 1: Broncos in my opinion at this point, coming in like
Speaker 1: regardless of anything, the fact that they're getting almost a
Speaker 1: field goal, I love it as a teaser pieces we
Speaker 1: I'll like get it to eight and a half, because
Speaker 1: you saw last week, right they were on the verge.
Speaker 3: It looked like the forty nine ers were gonna run.
Speaker 1: With that because of flukey players by the way, like
Speaker 1: punt funnels and stuff like that.
Speaker 3: They just came right back. You know, they are able
Speaker 3: to if they have to.
Speaker 1: They can move the ball because of their three wide receivers,
Speaker 1: because of Burrow, because of mixing, they can move the ball.
Speaker 1: I think they win this game, out right, I really do.
Speaker 1: I think they go into Denver. I don't get the money.
Speaker 1: I mean when a line moves like this read out
Speaker 1: of curiosity, like do you think that's because there are
Speaker 1: a ton of like quote big you know, sharp betters
Speaker 1: coming in and betting the Broncos.
Speaker 3: Is that why it's moving like this?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I feel like every situation is kind of its
Speaker 4: own thing. And look, maybe there's an underlying COVID issue
Speaker 4: coming like at this point, like you know, I'm almost
Speaker 4: like scared of my own shadow when it comes to
Speaker 4: like you know, it hasn't hit a key number of
Speaker 4: three yet, so if it hits three, that's when I'm like, Okay,
Speaker 4: maybe I'm missing something. But like to me, two and
Speaker 4: a half, one and a half, maybe it's just money
Speaker 4: coming in on the Broncos. Maybe it's a bigger better
Speaker 4: really signing with the Broncos. But to me, I make
Speaker 4: my own numbers. I trust my instincts here. I've watched
Speaker 4: this game and again, if we're looking at last week,
Speaker 4: for example, the Bengals closed this home underdogs there and
Speaker 4: limited the Niners to twenty points in regulation. I know
Speaker 4: they let up a touchdown overtime, but I'm gonna call
Speaker 4: it twenty points.
Speaker 2: They live.
Speaker 4: They shut down that Niners offense in the second half.
Speaker 4: They got back in that game because their defense could play.
Speaker 4: And Trey Hendrickson he's on track to play this weekend.
Speaker 4: I just I can't get to this number with the
Speaker 4: Broncos based off of them blowing out the Lions. I
Speaker 4: know they beat the Charges of the week before, two
Speaker 4: weeks before that, but we saw them play a tougher
Speaker 4: defense in the Chiefs and the Bengals defense is really
Speaker 4: good this year. They are one of the most underrated
Speaker 4: units in the league, and that's what I think actually
Speaker 4: gives them the edge in this game. I think that
Speaker 4: their defense is gonna hold off enough to get Burrow
Speaker 4: his opportunities to take takeover.
Speaker 2: So yeah, listen, I'm all over the Bengals in this one.
Speaker 1: I'm with you, and I will say, there are threes
Speaker 1: out there, man at points Bet at Fox Bet it's
Speaker 1: three right.
Speaker 4: Maybe I'm missing something and maybe I'm just dead wrong,
Speaker 4: but again, give me Joe Burrow over Cheddy Bridgewater.
Speaker 3: If that's what it really comes down to, you may
Speaker 3: be dead. But I assume with everybody.
Speaker 1: But I will say this like I don't have a
Speaker 1: problem saying and I hope you don't either. When I
Speaker 1: disagree with the bet like I have disagree I mean
Speaker 1: Pat and I were on opposite sides. That was like
Speaker 1: I don't usually do that. I don't usually say, okay, well,
Speaker 1: I'm actually going to take the opposite side.
Speaker 3: And we were.
Speaker 1: Joking because of the fact that, like that game wound
Speaker 1: up going into overtime, so of course neither one of
Speaker 1: us could really hang our hat.
Speaker 3: But I am with you on this bet.
Speaker 1: Like this is not one where I'm like, yeah, I
Speaker 1: could see that, or I'm not gonna bet it. Like
Speaker 1: I like it, especially like it as a teaser piece,
Speaker 1: but I don't understand it either. Didn't understand it on Monday,
Speaker 1: don't right now. And that is coming from maybe the
Speaker 1: world's foremost Bengals fader. So I really do like it.
Speaker 1: I'm going to go for my last one to a
Speaker 1: total finding spreads this week. We're really tough. This one's
Speaker 1: going to be and again, this one, I hope absolutly
Speaker 1: a huge defensive sort of you know, COVID thing is
Speaker 1: not really going to be affected by COVID, and it
Speaker 1: is the Bills and the Panthers under Actually I'm going
Speaker 1: to double check to make sure I have they're right.
Speaker 1: It's forty four and a half last time I checked it.
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna double check it right now. It's still
Speaker 1: forty four and a half.
Speaker 3: Very good. Okay, So I don't know.
Speaker 1: Man to me, this strikes with his game where the
Speaker 1: Bills are number one still in defensive DVOA. Like just overall,
Speaker 1: Carolina's offense is horrific, right Like, I don't know is
Speaker 1: are they gonna.
Speaker 3: Split again Cam Newton and PJ.
Speaker 2: Walker?
Speaker 1: And I know Sam Darnold was designated to return from
Speaker 1: injury reserve. I don't expect him to play, but even
Speaker 1: if he does, I don't really care. That offense is
Speaker 1: terrible without Christian McCaffrey. DJ Moore is a hamstring issue.
Speaker 1: He's gonna play, but again that's a little scary. They've
Speaker 1: got no running game whatsoever right now going on. And
Speaker 1: for the Bills, I mean their they obviously need to
Speaker 1: win this game. Their offense is not in sync right now.
Speaker 1: Everything that's going on is just bad. Josh Allen has
Speaker 1: this foot sprain and he's gonna play, of course.
Speaker 3: And he's amazing.
Speaker 1: But I do think that this is the type of
Speaker 1: game where you can basically put like the Panthers will
Speaker 1: put Gilmore Han Stefan Diggs and they'll give him some
Speaker 1: help over the top. And I think, I think this
Speaker 1: is just a game with the Patriots up next week,
Speaker 1: which is a game the Bills are going to have
Speaker 1: to win to have any sort of semblance right of
Speaker 1: possibly taking the division, depending on what happens here on
Speaker 1: Saturday night, of course, but they're gonna have to win.
Speaker 1: They're gonna want to play this. They know they can
Speaker 1: beat the Panthers. They're gonna want to play conservatively. I
Speaker 1: think you're gonna Seean McDermott say, like, we've got to
Speaker 1: get some sort of semblance of a run game going
Speaker 1: because our passing game right now is not working. To
Speaker 1: try to get Devin Singletary, who again every team abandons
Speaker 1: like doesn't even try to run the ball against the box. Like,
Speaker 1: I get it, but they haven't had a run game
Speaker 1: all year. They need something, like they need to sort
Speaker 1: of have some sort of balance. I think they try
Speaker 1: to get it here, and I think that that's really
Speaker 1: what we're going to get. So I think this is
Speaker 1: a game again where the Bills kind of play it
Speaker 1: tight and conservative, no faith whatsoever in the Panthers' ability
Speaker 1: to put up points.
Speaker 3: I was burned on the Panthers under last week.
Speaker 1: I get it because I had the falcon, But I
Speaker 1: do think that the Bills are not going to go
Speaker 1: explosive here and try that. I think they're going to
Speaker 1: get back to conservative game plan, keep everyone healthy, understand
Speaker 1: that they can win this game without doing too much
Speaker 1: rely on their defense. And I'll take the under here
Speaker 1: forty four and a half, which, by the way, it's
Speaker 1: like one of the higher totals of the week in
Speaker 1: what is just a ridiculously low total here, So aileen under,
Speaker 1: which always gets me a little nervous, even though I
Speaker 1: like unders because, as our friend Chris Raybaund says, it's
Speaker 1: like you're winning the game as soon as it starts
Speaker 1: like automatically, and I know people hate it. So I'll
Speaker 1: go under there and the Bills.
Speaker 3: And the Panthers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I'm totally with you.
Speaker 4: This was actually a game I was like, I have
Speaker 4: like circle, I have like my little post it that
Speaker 4: I like write down the bets I'm really looking to make,
Speaker 4: like you know, certain numbers and stuff. This is a
Speaker 4: bet that circled right there I was looking at especially
Speaker 4: this morning.
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna ride this with you.
Speaker 4: I mean, it's supposed to be freezing in Buffalo and
Speaker 4: right we're talking, we're talking quick teams.
Speaker 2: You know where we were talking about. Yeah, last segment.
Speaker 4: The Panthers are a quick team. They fire their offensive
Speaker 4: coordinator Joe Brady. The Cam Newton on back luster has
Speaker 4: already came off. So I'm totally with you here. And
Speaker 4: like you said, they play the Pats next week, maybe
Speaker 4: you know, pull the plug a little early. Really go
Speaker 4: ground and pound, try and just get out of this
Speaker 4: with a win. You know, something like twenty eight to
Speaker 4: three really sounds like like this sounds like a buffalo suffocating.
Speaker 4: Just workman like, win and move on. So I'm totally
Speaker 4: with you here with this total.
Speaker 1: That's exactly right. That's how I see it. Like they
Speaker 1: know they're gonna win this game, they have to win
Speaker 1: this game. They also almost can use this to like
Speaker 1: work on some stuff and be like, all right, let's
Speaker 1: not take any chances or go crazy.
Speaker 3: Let's just get here. So let's recap very quickly, and.
Speaker 1: Then I will also go through the remaining spreads and
Speaker 1: we'll just give our very quick takes on it. You
Speaker 1: are taking the Steelers, let's call it plus two, the
Speaker 1: Bengals plus two and a half, and the Patriots plus
Speaker 1: two and a half. Here against the Colts, I'm going
Speaker 1: to take the Pack laying five and a half against
Speaker 1: the Ravens the Jets. I'll call it nine and a
Speaker 1: half right now, even though if it gets to ten,
Speaker 1: wait on it, I'll get honorable man. Yes, this will
Speaker 1: give me a reason to continue to watch my poor
Speaker 1: football team getting nine and a half. I'll call it
Speaker 1: from the Dolphins and the Bills in the Panther's under
Speaker 1: forty four and a half.
Speaker 3: So read, if you're.
Speaker 1: Cool, let's just run through the remaining spreads and see
Speaker 1: where we're at. If you have any lean Saturday night.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know what you do with the
Speaker 1: Raiders at this point, because forget about tonight.
Speaker 3: Oh you do, guy? Right now, the spread is the
Speaker 3: Raiders laying one. What are you doing doing?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna bet the Browns.
Speaker 4: I'm gonna wait a little bit, but I'm gonna be
Speaker 4: on the Browns in some capacity. I mean, I doubt
Speaker 4: it gets me again, this is like kind of a
Speaker 4: COVID steam thought. There's no point in betting right now
Speaker 4: on the Browns because it's only There's probably gonna be
Speaker 4: more positives throughout the week. So what's the rush, Especially
Speaker 4: it's sitting on wonderright now if I have to bet
Speaker 4: the Browns minus one. Sure, but this just seems like
Speaker 4: an overreaction and Raiders possible quick team Browns playing for
Speaker 4: their lives, and everyone talks about.
Speaker 2: How bad Baker Mayfield is.
Speaker 4: I get all the weapons are gone, he's playing with
Speaker 4: basically a practice squad. But if case Keenum is really
Speaker 4: not that big of a downgrade from Baker Mayfield, then
Speaker 4: this line is a complete overreaction. So I'll be on
Speaker 4: the Browns in some sort of capacity. Probably just can't
Speaker 4: take the money long. Yeah, I mean it is one
Speaker 4: and a half. You know at my book, you know DraftKings,
Speaker 4: and you're in Jersey, are you? I'm in New York,
Speaker 4: but I I'm from Jersey, so I'm typically going back
Speaker 4: and forth.
Speaker 3: Got it?
Speaker 1: So you should have Fandel at least, right, and oh
Speaker 1: you do have probably yeah whatever you probably.
Speaker 2: I go all over the place. Oh I shove.
Speaker 3: It a yeah, all right, Well I'm from New York too.
Speaker 3: We'll talk later.
Speaker 1: But yeah, So it's one and a half at FanDuel
Speaker 1: and it's one off at DraftKings, so I might have
Speaker 1: a fun, just to have some Saturday fun. I might
Speaker 1: do a teaser where I get the Browns up to
Speaker 1: seven and a half and the Pats up to eight
Speaker 1: and a half and then just hopefully have a relaxed night.
Speaker 1: We already talked about the Pats and the Colt, so
Speaker 1: we know where you are there. The Texans and the
Speaker 1: Jacks are now at five, like it's all over the place.
Speaker 1: Actually it's three and a half for me. The Texans
Speaker 1: getting three and a half from Jaguars at DraftKings. It
Speaker 1: is four at bet MGM, it is five at Fandle.
Speaker 1: So this is all over the place. I guess with
Speaker 1: the Meyer unless I miss something from this morning, I
Speaker 1: guess is what the Urban Meyer news. So let's call
Speaker 1: it five at this point, what do you think about
Speaker 1: the Jags laying five to the Texans?
Speaker 4: So I kind of lean Jacksonville before this news at three,
Speaker 4: I was leaning there. I probably wasn't gonna bet it
Speaker 4: just because I want to know part of the team.
Speaker 4: I just thought they were dead. Now this like dead
Speaker 4: cat bounce from Jacksonville. I actually made the Jags four
Speaker 4: and a half point favorites, just like just my number,
Speaker 4: pure number, Urban Meyer.
Speaker 2: You can only downgrade them so much.
Speaker 4: So like I think the Texans are really really bad,
Speaker 4: So I lean Jacksonville.
Speaker 2: This morning, I woke up and saw the Urban Myer News.
Speaker 4: I put them in a moneyline parlay with the Niners
Speaker 4: at minus one fourteen, so like basically around even odd
Speaker 4: just to get the Jacks in there. Because I like Jacksonville.
Speaker 4: I really think you're gonna see a spirited effort from them.
Speaker 4: So I lean Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: It's a big number, but I still I think the
Speaker 1: Texans are that bad. I mean, it's really tough for
Speaker 1: me again because with Meyer there there is no spread
Speaker 1: and there is nothing that would make me back to Jacks,
Speaker 1: just because I would not feel comfortable regardless of what
Speaker 1: the numbers say. I think there are certain coaches and
Speaker 1: are certain teams where they kind of bust your models
Speaker 1: because they're bad. Now, yeah, I don't know, man. I
Speaker 1: lean towards the Jaguars, but I'm staying away from it
Speaker 1: for me. How about the Eagles now?
Speaker 3: Again, dude, when I looked at it four and a
Speaker 3: half on Monday, liked it.
Speaker 1: There bet it, you know. And again I didn't anticipate
Speaker 1: all of this sort of stuff. And now it's seven.
Speaker 1: Obviously Washington has a mess. I think they put twenty
Speaker 1: one players as of this morning on the COVID list. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Heineg's not on it, by the way, but he is
Speaker 1: battling the knee injury. We don't know if Terry mclaurin's
Speaker 1: even gonna be able to play here with a concussion.
Speaker 3: But it's seven. What do you think?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 4: This was another one. I tease the Eagles. This is
Speaker 4: yesterday again, I bet pretty early in the week. I
Speaker 4: tried to at least, so some of these things are
Speaker 4: already in. But I tease the Eagles with the Bengals
Speaker 4: actually last night. I mean, look, seven and a half.
Speaker 4: It's tough to lay in a division game this number.
Speaker 4: But what like, just don't bet this game, Yeah, because
Speaker 4: you don't know who's gonna be out, who's gonna play.
Speaker 4: I mean, last week we saw the football team's defensive
Speaker 4: line just get absolutely gashed on the ground. The offensive
Speaker 4: line is banged up. I just what are this football team?
Speaker 2: You're gonna get a bare bones roster Eagles off a bye.
Speaker 4: Hurts even has a sprained ankles, so we don't really
Speaker 4: know what that's gonna be like, Eagles in the playoff race.
Speaker 2: This just seems like a whole mess of a game.
Speaker 4: Right now that you know there are other games to
Speaker 4: bet on, I would stay away from this one, but
Speaker 4: again I tease the Eagles down.
Speaker 2: Get that basically as a money line.
Speaker 3: How about the Cowboys laying ten and a half to
Speaker 3: your Giants? Apparently?
Speaker 2: Yes, I'm a Giants fan. I don't have much to
Speaker 2: say about this one.
Speaker 4: But the Giants are quickly just becoming a just a
Speaker 4: dumpster fire?
Speaker 2: Again? Is this a quick team?
Speaker 4: Mike Lennon out there. I don't think Daniel Jones is
Speaker 4: gonna play again. I don't think he's been ruled out,
Speaker 4: but it seems like his season's probably over. Cowboys, But
Speaker 4: what kind of eff you're gonna get out of the Cowboys?
Speaker 4: This division's pretty much over? Do they go on cruise control?
Speaker 4: Eileen Dallas?
Speaker 2: No real play here?
Speaker 4: You know, if you have any thoughts, you know you
Speaker 4: might have more of a Yeah, this just seems like
Speaker 4: a complete stay.
Speaker 1: Away, complete stay away for me as well. Yeah, now,
Speaker 1: not something I want to go anywhere near. I'm glad
Speaker 1: you feel the same. What about the Cardinals here that
Speaker 1: obviously just lost Andre Hopkins, don't know about James Connor.
Speaker 1: They're still laying thirteen points on the road in Detroit. Right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet Detroit. It's pretty gross.
Speaker 4: But I guess they should be getting guys back off
Speaker 4: their flu list, not COVID list, that flu list. But
Speaker 4: if you look at Arizona, first of all, I think
Speaker 4: they really dropped the ball on Monday night. That was
Speaker 4: pretty you know, I love the Cardinals last year and they
Speaker 4: burned me, and then this year I started feeding them
Speaker 4: because I didn't think they were as elite as their
Speaker 4: record and they were burning me.
Speaker 2: So I just can't seem to get them right.
Speaker 4: But that was a real opportunity to announce yourself as
Speaker 4: an NFC contender because no one's really talking about you,
Speaker 4: and I thought it was a pretty concerning performance against Listen,
Speaker 4: the Rams are good, but so you're at home, you
Speaker 4: have an opportunity to close this division, really establish yourself
Speaker 4: as the one seed. And Kyle, so maybe a letdown
Speaker 4: here on a short week, and they also finished with
Speaker 4: a difficult schedule. I believe it's Dallas and then Seattle
Speaker 4: or Dallas and another division opponent.
Speaker 2: So is this a looking at spot?
Speaker 4: Are they really gonna get pumped up to go to
Speaker 4: Detroit and play the lowly Lions. And Arizona's one bad
Speaker 4: spot on their defense is their rush to I believe
Speaker 4: they're twenty ninth in defensive rush success rate. So lines,
Speaker 4: they like to get that ball out of Jared Goff's hands.
Speaker 4: Just run the ball. So give me the lines at
Speaker 4: this huge number. I'm probably gonna wait and see if
Speaker 4: this goes back to fourteen. I doubt it gets there.
Speaker 4: I'd play this down to I'll say twelve.
Speaker 1: And a half. Yeah they do. They get Indy and
Speaker 1: then Dallas and then Seattle to close out the season
Speaker 1: here four hours. So yeah, no, I agree, I I like,
Speaker 1: I think the number is too high, but I agree.
Speaker 1: I'd wait on it. Hopefully it gets up, but yeah,
Speaker 1: it's too high for me. We talked about the total,
Speaker 1: but what about the spread here in the Bills laying
Speaker 1: ten and a half at home against Patanthers.
Speaker 2: I like the Bills. I like we said.
Speaker 4: I think that this just sets up for a workman like,
Speaker 4: just like kind of blowout. Like we've seen the Bills
Speaker 4: beat up on bad teams too. You know, they cover
Speaker 4: these big spreads when they're a better team. They really
Speaker 4: make sure everyone knows they're the better team, So I
Speaker 4: lean Bills, even if it's mister Bitsky if he gets time.
Speaker 4: I don't know what they're gonna do with Josh Allen.
Speaker 4: I still like the Bills at pretty much any number.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I don't I if I have to
Speaker 1: go one way, I'll go with the Bills for sure,
Speaker 1: because I can't see the Panthers sticking in this game.
Speaker 3: Falcons getting nine and a half in San Francisco.
Speaker 1: You mentioned already sort of doing the money line parlay
Speaker 1: there right with San Francisco.
Speaker 3: So what do you think about this with the spread through?
Speaker 4: I lean San Francisco even at this big number. I think,
Speaker 4: I really think Atlanta's bad, and I just and it
Speaker 4: seems like Atlanta they again, it's they beat up on
Speaker 4: their inferior opponents and then they lose to you know,
Speaker 4: the better closer to elite performance are elite perform elite teams.
Speaker 4: I don't know if San Francisco is there yet, but
Speaker 4: this feels like a game where San Francisco continues to
Speaker 4: get a little momentum here down the stretch. Everyone's talking
Speaker 4: about them as like kind of that trendy. No one
Speaker 4: wants to see us team.
Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm.
Speaker 4: There yet, just because Jimmy Garoppolo, But yeah, it feels
Speaker 4: like this is a real spot where San Francisco kind
Speaker 4: of beats up on an inferior opponent like Atlanta. So
Speaker 4: again I took the money line. Anything under ten. I
Speaker 4: think this is still pretty good. I don't hate the
Speaker 4: over either. I could see San Francisco really putting up
Speaker 4: some big points on Atlanta.
Speaker 3: All Right, the total, let me just pull it up
Speaker 3: so I can get it. Whatever it is.
Speaker 1: The consensus total is forty six, so all right, it's
Speaker 1: over there.
Speaker 3: Okay, very good.
Speaker 1: How about the Rams hosting the Seahawks. It's now down
Speaker 1: to four and a half. It opened it. I looked
Speaker 1: at it on Monday with seven. So obviously the COVID
Speaker 1: issues sort of, you know, I'm sure at least affecting that.
Speaker 3: So what do you think here at four and a half.
Speaker 2: I kind of like Seattle.
Speaker 4: I think that maybe Russ is starting to round it
Speaker 4: to form one last playoff push short week for LA.
Speaker 4: Of course, the COVID issues, you don't really know who's
Speaker 4: gonna shoot off. I'm I'm probably not gonna end up
Speaker 4: betting this game, just because of all the uncertainty around it.
Speaker 4: But I do lean with Seattle catching four and a
Speaker 4: half and again getting Russ as a dog is kind
Speaker 4: of a almost an auto bet situation.
Speaker 2: You know, do you have a play?
Speaker 4: I mean, I again, I'm kind of steering clear of
Speaker 4: this one, just because of all the uncertainty.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like them early in the week, and I
Speaker 1: bet it briefly at seven because it was Yeah, it
Speaker 1: was six and a half where I was in got
Speaker 1: the seven I went there. Now it's four and a half.
Speaker 1: I still I'm with you, though, I lean to them
Speaker 1: at four and a half because Russ to me looked
Speaker 1: appreciably different when I in this most recent game, I think,
Speaker 1: than what he had looked like. Other than that, since
Speaker 1: he came back like he looks strong. The Rams are,
Speaker 1: you know, good effort here, but they're obviously beat up.
Speaker 1: They'll probably be without Beckham. Who knows what other COVID
Speaker 1: issues they're gonna be dealing with. So I do like
Speaker 1: getting the Seahawks here at four and a half. How
Speaker 1: about the Saints visiting the box on Sunday night?
Speaker 3: Eleven? Is the spread here?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I lean towards the Saints.
Speaker 4: I don't have a play on it just yet. It
Speaker 4: just Sean Payton's great as a dog. He's great in division.
Speaker 4: I don't have the numbers up in front of me.
Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure he's nineteen and ten straight up against
Speaker 4: the Bucks. Not that they're gonna win this game, but
Speaker 4: we saw earlier this year the Saints defense that is
Speaker 4: getting healthier gave Tom Brady a ton of issues. I
Speaker 4: think Tampa Bay is rolling though. I really think that
Speaker 4: they are the best team in the NFL. I don't
Speaker 4: think there's much debate there, and Tom Brady is gonna
Speaker 4: probably win. End up warning MVP, but this is a
Speaker 4: big number, primetime game. I think the Saints are gonna
Speaker 4: hang around in this one, and.
Speaker 2: I lean Saints.
Speaker 4: I don't know if I'm gonna play yet though, And
Speaker 4: I tweet out all my plays. I have a bet
Speaker 4: stamp on my time to my profile, so when I
Speaker 4: say I lean away, you could find these plays when
Speaker 4: I tweet them in real time very good.
Speaker 3: I like that.
Speaker 1: I'm in agreement with you by the way that I
Speaker 1: leaned towards the Saints. They just always you know, they're
Speaker 1: gonna play them tough. They played them obviously, they won
Speaker 1: the last game that they played, So this just strikes
Speaker 1: me as a game that's gonna be single.
Speaker 3: Digits, however it ends up with the Bucks. But yeah, it's.
Speaker 1: Also one that I'm not running to bet. I'm taking
Speaker 1: my time on it, and I'm gonna see last one
Speaker 1: Monday Night football. The Bears are getting three and a
Speaker 1: half at home against the Vikings. I did just come
Speaker 1: across that. I guess Bill.
Speaker 3: Laser was placed in COVID protocol.
Speaker 1: Don't know whether or not Laser is gonna be there,
Speaker 1: not sure that matters to whatsoever, but three and a
Speaker 1: half here getting it at home.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I've retired from betting Vikings games this year,
Speaker 4: just for like my heart. Like, you know, it's college
Speaker 4: I bet a lot of college basketball. That's enough heartache
Speaker 4: for me. Vikings might be a little too much for me.
Speaker 2: Road favorite. I mean, they need the game, do the
Speaker 2: Bears care?
Speaker 4: I feel like maybe last Sunday Night was kind of
Speaker 4: a last ditch, like let's really go for it. This
Speaker 4: could easy be a game where they roll over. I
Speaker 4: guess I lean Minnesota. Though, if I had to play
Speaker 4: the side, like in a pick the pool, I'll probably
Speaker 4: be on Minnesota because I made them bigger favorites. Maybe
Speaker 4: the over just because it seems like the Bears offense
Speaker 4: with fields kind of got a shot of life, maybe
Speaker 4: some speed. Maybe they kind of just like throw the
Speaker 4: book out and just say that, like, let's just go
Speaker 4: for it. Let's like start going for all fourth down,
Speaker 4: maybe get a little crazy Vikings offense. We know, and listen,
Speaker 4: this game will probably go down to the wire because
Speaker 4: it's a Vikings game.
Speaker 2: So I lean Vikings, I lean over.
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna stay away from it though, Yeah, unless
Speaker 1: I'm just desperate to have a little something.
Speaker 3: Yeah, on Monday night, I'm running away. I'm running away
Speaker 3: from it. I I just like, there's no way the Vikings.
Speaker 1: I mean, if that game against the Steelers didn't just
Speaker 1: tell you can't bet on the Vikings no matter what, nothing,
Speaker 1: because they just they have no killer instinct, nobility to
Speaker 1: put away games. So that's where I Matt read. I'm
Speaker 1: so glad to finally have you on the podcast. I
Speaker 1: really appreciate it. Just remind everybody where they can check
Speaker 1: you out and your work. Yeah, check us out over
Speaker 1: at betsided. That'sfanside dot com. Backslash betsided.
Speaker 4: Make sure check out our podcast Bed and Breakfast, which
Speaker 4: is live on Mondays and Thursday mornings, and you can
Speaker 4: follow me on Twitter at read Wallach.
Speaker 1: All Right, we'll be back on Monday breaking down the
Speaker 1: early look at the week sixteen NFL lines. Goodness, gracious,
Speaker 1: enjoy your betting, everybody for this weekend