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Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight,
Speaker 1: presented by FanDuel here at the volume. Happy Sunday, everybody.
Speaker 1: I am Jason Tiff. I hope all of you are
Speaker 1: enjoying your weekend. Happy Mother's Day to all of them
Speaker 1: mothers out there. Very strange game in Dallas tonight between
Speaker 1: the Suns and the Mavericks. We're gonna break that game
Speaker 1: down in its entirety. I also am going to share
Speaker 1: my thoughts after all of the scuttle butts surrounding the
Speaker 1: John Morant knee injury, and then stick around for the end.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go over some of the stats that I
Speaker 1: found that have updated from the Celtics Bucks series. Also
Speaker 1: a couple of quick housekeeping notes. Don't forget to subscribe
Speaker 1: to the Volumes YouTube channel. Also look for a link
Speaker 1: in the description to this video to subscribe to our newsletter.
Speaker 1: It's a great place for you to keep up to
Speaker 1: date with all of the content at the Volume and
Speaker 1: has always follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt
Speaker 1: so you can see my film breakdowns that I do
Speaker 1: to support a lot of the stuff that I talked
Speaker 1: about on the show. But let's start with Dallas and
Speaker 1: they're tying the series against Phoenix tonight. I told you
Speaker 1: guys that I predicted this series to go to six games,
Speaker 1: mainly because I trusted Luca to be able to overcome
Speaker 1: the massive talent disadvantage between these two teams, just with
Speaker 1: the way that he can control a basketball game and
Speaker 1: his ability to control the pace and the flow with
Speaker 1: his consistent good decision making, and ironically enough, he's still
Speaker 1: not shooting the ball particularly well. That's gonna be the
Speaker 1: thing that's gonna be really freaky for the Sons in
Speaker 1: terms of the threat, the appropriate fear that they should
Speaker 1: have that they can lose this series should come from
Speaker 1: the fact that Luca, once again tonight we had twenty
Speaker 1: six points on twenty five shots, was not efficient. Was
Speaker 1: missing that step back three that he goes to. He's
Speaker 1: been hitting that in his playoff career over our guy
Speaker 1: Carson pointed that out on TikTok the other day. He's
Speaker 1: one for ten tonight, and there's a version of this
Speaker 1: story again. I'm still picking Phoenix to win this series.
Speaker 1: I believe they'll win in six or seven games. But
Speaker 1: the threat here for Dallas to overcome them is what
Speaker 1: if that what if Lucas starts making some of these shots,
Speaker 1: because that's when things could get really, really dangerous. He
Speaker 1: his ability to consistently make you pay for sending double teams,
Speaker 1: but to victimize mismatches makes them such a huge problem.
Speaker 1: And I'll use an example a stretch of the game
Speaker 1: there in that third quarter when he was attacking Campaign.
Speaker 1: So Campaign had a really rough night tonight. He's actually
Speaker 1: a pretty decent backup point guard. But Dallas has been
Speaker 1: really good sliding their feet and containing dribble dribble drive
Speaker 1: guys this entire season, and they've been putting him in
Speaker 1: a bind. Chris Paul's foul trouble obviously was an issue.
Speaker 1: We'll get to that in a little bit. But when
Speaker 1: you play guys on the floor that are small, like
Speaker 1: Campaign is, you just know that Lucas gonna go after him.
Speaker 1: You know that Lucas gonna make a concerted effort to
Speaker 1: make you pay for having a player like that on
Speaker 1: the floor. And what was super interesting is no matter
Speaker 1: where they had him, even if it was in like
Speaker 1: they're weird, kind of like little matchup zone that Phoenix
Speaker 1: was doing, Luca would just bring the ball over to
Speaker 1: where Campaign was there and then attack him. And he's
Speaker 1: so good like Campaign was pressuring up on him, but
Speaker 1: he Luca almost has like that Nicola Yokich esque spin
Speaker 1: move where I always talk about how post players one
Speaker 1: of the biggest things we train them to do. We
Speaker 1: do this with high school kids with the pad. You know,
Speaker 1: the pad that you hold. You want to kind of
Speaker 1: air on one side of the body because most post
Speaker 1: offenders do something like that, especially when they're trying to
Speaker 1: front before the post entry, but they spin off on
Speaker 1: the other side. You're supposed to feel where the defender
Speaker 1: is and spin to that side. It's kind of like
Speaker 1: a license to use your chicken wing to like when
Speaker 1: you spin, you can use your shoulder and elbow to
Speaker 1: create more separation. And Luca was just doing that time
Speaker 1: and time again. If Campaign stayed behind him, he'd back
Speaker 1: him down and get into his post moves. If he
Speaker 1: would press up, he'd spin off of him and go
Speaker 1: all the way to the rim and then he you know,
Speaker 1: and Luca has a gift for this with a pump fake.
Speaker 1: But what he would do is they put a shooter,
Speaker 1: a good shooter one pass away, like Dorian Finny Smith
Speaker 1: was incredible tonight. I believe he made eight three point shots.
Speaker 1: They had put Dorian Finny Smith one pass away and
Speaker 1: Luca would kind of back down cam and then just
Speaker 1: go up with the pump fake and then out of
Speaker 1: the pump fake immediately make the past because on that
Speaker 1: shot fake, the guy guarding Dorian and Phinney Smith would
Speaker 1: come over to help, and it was like the best
Speaker 1: way to catch him in between that stunt. We call
Speaker 1: that stunt doubling it if you don't want to if
Speaker 1: you don't want to actually give up an open shot,
Speaker 1: but you want to dissuade the offensive player from feeling
Speaker 1: comfortable you lunge at him and then come back right. Well,
Speaker 1: Luca was catching them in the lunch to get to
Speaker 1: open shooters. It's all just part of what makes him
Speaker 1: such a dynamic half court surgeon. The way that he is.
Speaker 1: It's one of the biggest reasons why I value Luca's
Speaker 1: skill set so much compared to some of his peers
Speaker 1: around the league's. Obviously, his defensive issues are gonna have
Speaker 1: to be addressed, although he's been a lot better defensively
Speaker 1: in the last two games. Dallas in general has been
Speaker 1: way better defensively in the last two games. That's the
Speaker 1: reason why they've been as successful as they are. We've
Speaker 1: talked about this at length on the show. Avoiding Phoenix's
Speaker 1: set defense, getting cross matches in transition so that you
Speaker 1: don't have to attack Michael Bridges every time. Everything about
Speaker 1: what Dallas does is predicated on what they do on
Speaker 1: the defensive end of the floor. And you know, one
Speaker 1: of the things that they've been doing it almost kind
Speaker 1: of reminds me of um of the Utah Jazz series.
Speaker 1: They're doing a good job of making it so that
Speaker 1: they don't give up too much and switches to DeAndre
Speaker 1: eight and by crowding him by stunting a lot of
Speaker 1: all year long, Dallas has been a gimmicky defense in
Speaker 1: the sense that, like they know, they don't have the personnel.
Speaker 1: They don't have Phoenix Suns personnelit they don't have Boston
Speaker 1: Celtics personnel. They don't have six wings on the on
Speaker 1: the roster that can guard multiple positions. That's not what
Speaker 1: they're working with. They have a handful of really good players.
Speaker 1: Reggie Bullock and Dorian Finney Smith are fantastic two way players.
Speaker 1: They were ten for seventeen from three to night too
Speaker 1: between the two of them, which is awesome. Those two
Speaker 1: guys are obviously your stereotypical traditional great defensive players Dorian
Speaker 1: Uh Reggie Bullock can do lock and trail stuff, so
Speaker 1: he's great to but on guys that run off of
Speaker 1: screens for shots right there. He's also Bullock is very
Speaker 1: good with ball pressure and being disruptive. And then Dorian
Speaker 1: Smith is just He's not quite the level of a
Speaker 1: Michael Bridges, but he's a similar archetype of players. Super
Speaker 1: long wing with super long arms that bothers really good players.
Speaker 1: I remember watching Dorian Phinnie Smith back in like two
Speaker 1: thousand seventeen or two thousand eighteen do a number on
Speaker 1: Lebron James in a game in Dallas, and I was like, man,
Speaker 1: this guy has physical tools at the wing position defensively
Speaker 1: that are just really, really difficult to deal with. But Dallas,
Speaker 1: outside of those two guys, has a lot of offensive
Speaker 1: minded players, and Jason Kidd is just on a really
Speaker 1: nice job of of talking them into committing to the
Speaker 1: defensive end of the floor and bringing it on that
Speaker 1: side of the four and competing, and they've stifled a
Speaker 1: really really good Phoenix Suns defense in the last couple
Speaker 1: of games. A lot of you know, after the first quarter,
Speaker 1: we saw Monty Williams talk about this and this is
Speaker 1: something that I hit on heavy last night in the show.
Speaker 1: If you guys remember dribble contained, I did this whole
Speaker 1: thing talking about how Memphis has a huge weakness with
Speaker 1: dribble contain and how it's one of the most valuable
Speaker 1: skills in the NBA right now. Well, one of the
Speaker 1: things that's been really hurting Phoenix in these two games
Speaker 1: is they're giving up easy dribble drives. If you guys
Speaker 1: remember that opening quarter interview after the first quarter of
Speaker 1: their interviewing Monny Williams, and he specifically talked about we
Speaker 1: have to do a better job of keeping the ball
Speaker 1: handler in front, because when we don't, we have to
Speaker 1: help too much. That's when they get out two shooters.
Speaker 1: And I think the I think the Mavericks made fourteen
Speaker 1: threes in the first half or something crazy like that,
Speaker 1: you know, compared to I think Phoenix had only made five,
Speaker 1: So like massive advantage in the three point shooting element
Speaker 1: of the game, just because they were getting dribble penetration.
Speaker 1: And that's where Phoenix, and this is part of the
Speaker 1: dynamic of going on the road versus at home. Dribble
Speaker 1: drive defense is so much about just sitting in a
Speaker 1: defensive stance and moving your feet, and when you're feeding
Speaker 1: off the energy of the home crowd, it's just easier
Speaker 1: to do that. And Phoenix is running into the classic
Speaker 1: problem that happens when you go on the road. You
Speaker 1: still have to compete defensively the same way you did
Speaker 1: at home. There were stretches at home where it looked
Speaker 1: like Dallas was helpless against their defense, especially late third
Speaker 1: early fourth quarter of Game two. They have to find
Speaker 1: a way to recapture that I believe they will when
Speaker 1: they get home. The last thing I wanted to touch
Speaker 1: on from this particular game was the Chris Paul foul
Speaker 1: trouble thing. And you know, for a player in Chris Paul,
Speaker 1: who's famous, like his reputation is smart decision maker, you know,
Speaker 1: the adult in the room, the guy that you can
Speaker 1: trust to have the ball in his hands. And we're
Speaker 1: coming on a couple of really weird games here, seven
Speaker 1: turnovers in game three, then the foul trouble today. We'll
Speaker 1: talk about the foul trouble in just a second, but
Speaker 1: you know, with Chris Paul's playoff resume, there's some weird
Speaker 1: stuff like this, like the all the decisions at the
Speaker 1: end of that crazy Oklahoma City game that he tricked
Speaker 1: off and may or may not have tricked off the
Speaker 1: series he has, Like there was that weird moment in
Speaker 1: the bubble in Game seven where like he was scoring
Speaker 1: and switches over Robert Covington time and time again, and
Speaker 1: then on the last possession he like panicked and throw
Speaker 1: the ball to Shake Gils just Alexander and almost turned
Speaker 1: it over and like and you're just like the so
Speaker 1: strange for a player who's typically so dependable in these
Speaker 1: situations to have some black marks on his resume in
Speaker 1: the playoffs, and you know, and it's just it's just
Speaker 1: confusing because there's no excuse for the decisions that he
Speaker 1: was making today, Like do I love that six foul? No? Like, yeah,
Speaker 1: technically on the offensive rebound, he kind of reached in
Speaker 1: on Jalen Brunson, But I thought it was a really
Speaker 1: really weak foul in a playoffs setting. But at the
Speaker 1: same time, you know that there are two different kinds
Speaker 1: of scenarios that take place on a basketball court. Scenarios
Speaker 1: where you take the whistle out of the equation entirely,
Speaker 1: or scenarios where you make the ref make a judgment
Speaker 1: call the second you decide to reach in and hit
Speaker 1: him on the arm. Like that, you have now put
Speaker 1: the ref in a predicament. He now either has to
Speaker 1: blow the whistle and call a foul on you to
Speaker 1: foul you out of the game, or he has to
Speaker 1: ignore you hitting an offensive player on the arm while
Speaker 1: he's shooting. I'll give you an example. Luca don Chech
Speaker 1: middle of the second quarter. I believe he already had
Speaker 1: two fouls. I think at this point he was trying
Speaker 1: to avoid his third foul. Devin Booker's isolating him on
Speaker 1: the right wing. It's clear that Devin Booker is going
Speaker 1: to try to attack the rim on Luca with the
Speaker 1: sole intent to either get a wide open lay up
Speaker 1: because Luca will give him the lay up because he's
Speaker 1: in foul trouble, or to try to draw that additional
Speaker 1: foul and Luca, So what does Luca do? He looks
Speaker 1: over at the refs, shows him his hands, puts his
Speaker 1: hands behind his back on that possession. He didn't keep
Speaker 1: his hands behind his back the whole time, but he
Speaker 1: was making a statement to the ref, I am not
Speaker 1: going to reach. Keep that in mind, don't call foul
Speaker 1: on me. Then Devin Booker did a hard dribble drive
Speaker 1: to the left and Luca slid with him, took the
Speaker 1: drive in the chest and fell over and drew an
Speaker 1: offensive foul. He is now playing the psychological game with
Speaker 1: the ref. I know him in foul trouble. I know
Speaker 1: you're watching me. I know Devin's hunting me looking for
Speaker 1: a foul. I'm telling you right now, I'm not going
Speaker 1: to foul h And even though even though he might
Speaker 1: not even had legal legal guarding position like that offensive
Speaker 1: foul was a kind of a fifty fifty call, right,
Speaker 1: But he was winning the psychological battle with the ref
Speaker 1: by showing his hands the way that he did. There
Speaker 1: was a time where the Lakers did this back in
Speaker 1: two thousand nineteen with with Brandon Ingram and Kuzma and
Speaker 1: Lebron when they did the same thing in a game
Speaker 1: against James Hard At the entire game, they're like looking
Speaker 1: at the refs and showing them their hands the whole time.
Speaker 1: It's the psychological game, right. Let's go back to Chris
Speaker 1: Paul's fifth foul. Okay, you have four fouls in it's
Speaker 1: early second half. You know you only have two left.
Speaker 1: You get a stop and get a rebound, and you
Speaker 1: dribble up the floor, deliberately veer into uh Jalen Brunson's
Speaker 1: path and stop and a collision happens and there's bodies
Speaker 1: all over the floor. Again, Yes, you have a chance
Speaker 1: to draw a foul there, but you have put the
Speaker 1: referee in a predicament where he has to make a
Speaker 1: judgment call. You put him in a predicament where he
Speaker 1: has to decide, am I calling a foul on Jalen
Speaker 1: or am I calling a foul on Chris, and are
Speaker 1: you gonna get that call? Sometimes yes, but you put
Speaker 1: yourself in that predicament had you've done nothing and dribbled
Speaker 1: the ball up the floor. Yes, you take away the
Speaker 1: potential reward of drawing a bullshit foul on Jalen Brunson,
Speaker 1: but you also take out the possibility of you picking
Speaker 1: up your fifth foul. That's poor decision making. I thought,
Speaker 1: at least five of the six fouls against Chris Paul
Speaker 1: tonight we're good calls, and even the sixth one it
Speaker 1: was close. That's just poor judgment. He knows better, He's
Speaker 1: been in too many of these games to do that.
Speaker 1: And again, it's like, I trust Chris Paul. I think
Speaker 1: he's gonna pull through. I think Phoenix will win this series.
Speaker 1: But like, it's really strange to have a player that's
Speaker 1: historically as dependable as Chris do reckless things like that
Speaker 1: in that type of setting. Just really really strange. Again,
Speaker 1: and Dallas has a chance. Never count out Luca. They
Speaker 1: absolutely can win this game this series. Their defense has
Speaker 1: gotten considerably better. That's a huge thing that if they
Speaker 1: can carry that with them to Phoenix, they have a
Speaker 1: real chance to win. Lucas Steel hasn't shot well. That's
Speaker 1: their chance to steal Game five as Luca goes into
Speaker 1: Phoenix and shoots really well. But Phoenix is the better team.
Speaker 1: They have two of the last three games at home.
Speaker 1: The smart money is still on Phoenix at this point.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to this John Moran thing
Speaker 1: for a minute. So obviously this came out while we
Speaker 1: were recording the show last night, so we didn't have
Speaker 1: a chance to really react to it. But okay, so
Speaker 1: John Moray goes on Twitter and shares out this video
Speaker 1: of like Jordan Pool seemingly pulling on his knee while
Speaker 1: he's planted. I didn't see another angle of this video
Speaker 1: where it doesn't look so much like he pulled as
Speaker 1: much as his hand was just there and jaw's knee
Speaker 1: kind of buckled a little bit. It's hard to say,
Speaker 1: you know. And then, and obviously John Murray ends up
Speaker 1: deleting the tweet. You have. Memphis is coach come out
Speaker 1: and basically insinuate that it might have been done intentionally. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Jordan Pool comes out and says, I was going for
Speaker 1: the ball. It's your textbook, he said, he said, type
Speaker 1: of situation right now. My initial interpretation is, you know, like,
Speaker 1: obviously it's possible that that Jordan Pool pulling on John
Speaker 1: Morant's knee was responsible for the issue, But there was
Speaker 1: also a play earlier in the game where John Morand
Speaker 1: was closing out on a shooter on the three point
Speaker 1: line on the left wing and appeared to slam his
Speaker 1: knee the same knee into the shooter as he was
Speaker 1: going by, so that very well may have called it.
Speaker 1: It also could have been an issue he's been dealing
Speaker 1: with for a while. We don't know. But the bottom
Speaker 1: line is is like there's there's a gray area and
Speaker 1: some of these things and then there are like clear
Speaker 1: black and white type of issues. To me, the Dylan
Speaker 1: Brooks issue was so black and white. Clearly knocking the
Speaker 1: dude out of the air, clearly attempting to to hard
Speaker 1: foul a player that was flying. It was obviously a
Speaker 1: dangerous play to me. That was so cut and dry,
Speaker 1: has to be ejected, has to be suspended, super dirty,
Speaker 1: have absolutely no respect for play or anything involved in it.
Speaker 1: Right then there's like, if I'm ranking the dirty fouls
Speaker 1: in the series, that's a clear number one. Then there's
Speaker 1: a significant drop off to the Draymond thing. The Draymond
Speaker 1: thing was dangerous, hit a guy in the face. I
Speaker 1: thought he loaded up and did it on purpose, and
Speaker 1: then he dragged Brandon Clark out of the air. However,
Speaker 1: it was clear that Draymond was trying to gather Brandon
Speaker 1: Clark so that he wouldn't make the layup and get
Speaker 1: an hand one. It was dangerous. I thought it deserved
Speaker 1: the ejection. But it was a clear, significant level below
Speaker 1: the Dylan Brooks thing because he was obviously not branching
Speaker 1: into that very very very dangerous play that Dylan Brooks
Speaker 1: uh did on Gary Payton to Gary Payton the second,
Speaker 1: So I thought there was a clear delineation between those two.
Speaker 1: To me, the Jordan Poole thing is even further below
Speaker 1: the Draymond thing. One. I've played in a shiptown of
Speaker 1: basketball games in my life, and I've played against dirty players.
Speaker 1: I have never, ever, ever, ever, ever seen a player
Speaker 1: do anything from totally similar to that, grabbing a guy's
Speaker 1: knee while it's planted and trying to pull it out
Speaker 1: of whack. I've never seen that before, and so because
Speaker 1: of that, to me, it's it's kind of like a
Speaker 1: benefit of the doubt type situation. We're looking at Jordan Pool,
Speaker 1: a player who does not have a history of making
Speaker 1: dirty plays. To me, these series is are so physical
Speaker 1: with the away guys are grabbing arms and shoulders to
Speaker 1: get leverage on people. Right, Like the chicken wing is
Speaker 1: an example. Like to me, it's like a swim move.
Speaker 1: A defensive en tries to get around an offensive lineman
Speaker 1: by kind of like swimming around him. Right. I thought
Speaker 1: Jordan Pool was trying to pull himself closer to John
Speaker 1: to try to get a hand on the ball. I
Speaker 1: didn't think it was intentional. Was there a chance that
Speaker 1: it was intentional, Yes, but we can't jump to that conclusion.
Speaker 1: To me, it was safe to jump to that conclusion
Speaker 1: with Dylan Brooks because it's a play we've seen often
Speaker 1: in basketball history. It's a play we know is dangerous.
Speaker 1: We we know it's so dangerous that it's an unwritten
Speaker 1: rule amongst basketball players that you're never supposed to do that.
Speaker 1: This is a an entirely different situation. I hope Jaws okay.
Speaker 1: I hope he's able to play tomorrow. We don't know.
Speaker 1: There was reporting that he might not play. I hope
Speaker 1: he's able to play the the To me, the John
Speaker 1: and knee situation is a separate topic from the Jordan
Speaker 1: Pool situation because I don't think it was intentional. But
Speaker 1: for the sake of the series, obviously I hope they
Speaker 1: come back. Obviously I hope he plays. One last note,
Speaker 1: do not count out Memphis if they don't have Jaw.
Speaker 1: Are they a lesser team? Yes, um what I favored
Speaker 1: Golden State. Yes, but I was gonna favor Golden State
Speaker 1: even if Job was at acent. The thing is is,
Speaker 1: there's a reason why Memphis was so successful this year
Speaker 1: with Jaw off the floor, and it had a lot
Speaker 1: to do with the fact that Jaw was their weakest
Speaker 1: defensive player. They were about five point nine points per
Speaker 1: one hundred possessions better on defense without Jaw this year.
Speaker 1: As a result, they actually had a better net rating
Speaker 1: without Job this year. As I said so many times
Speaker 1: on the show, I don't translate to that to the
Speaker 1: playoffs because in the playoffs, elite, high end shot creation
Speaker 1: becomes so much more valuable. So I'm obviously gonna heavily
Speaker 1: value Jaw and that predicament. Just look at this series.
Speaker 1: Nobody on Memphis can create a shot sept for Jaw right,
Speaker 1: So I don't think that Memphis Grozies are better without
Speaker 1: jaw However, they are a different type of good team
Speaker 1: without him, they go to another big wing. Usually in
Speaker 1: that role, they become much bigger, much more athletic in
Speaker 1: terms of like their overall size and athleticism profile the
Speaker 1: line up. John Moran is a freak athlete, but he's
Speaker 1: not a freak athlete on the defensive end of the
Speaker 1: floor in terms of like covering a ton of ground
Speaker 1: and keeping guys in front and that kind of stuff.
Speaker 1: So Memphis becomes a better defensive team. They become more
Speaker 1: imposing physically without John Morin. So that is their opportunity
Speaker 1: to try to drag out this series is go big
Speaker 1: without jaw and just try to physically dominate Golden State.
Speaker 1: Still in picking Golden State, I still think Golden State
Speaker 1: now would draw out if if he does end up
Speaker 1: missing the series, Golden State is gonna win this series
Speaker 1: in five games, I believe, but it's still gonna be
Speaker 1: an interesting game. I still expect it to be a
Speaker 1: dog fight because Memphis doesn't become a bad team without Jaw,
Speaker 1: They just become a slightly lesser different team at that point.
Speaker 1: All right, before we get out of here today, I
Speaker 1: wanted to quickly touch on some of the metrics from
Speaker 1: yesterday a Celtics Bucks game. Obviously, this is something I've
Speaker 1: been keyed in on all series, particularly to the difference
Speaker 1: between the way the teams are performing in half court
Speaker 1: versus in transition. It's so much of this comes down
Speaker 1: to Boston's offensive decision making. It controls the pace of
Speaker 1: the game. We talked about this a lot in last
Speaker 1: night's show, but all the data tells us that Boston
Speaker 1: is a significantly better half court team. But Milwaukee has
Speaker 1: managed to steal two games in transition. Like that's where
Speaker 1: this this whole series has been determined to give you
Speaker 1: an idea. So for the entire series, the in transition
Speaker 1: Milwaukee is averaging one point four one points per play
Speaker 1: compared to Boston averaging one point zero to four points
Speaker 1: per play. So literally, Milwaukee is winning this series in transition,
Speaker 1: and it shows in the stats. They won Game one,
Speaker 1: they were twenty points better than Boston in fast break points.
Speaker 1: They lost Game two, they were even in fast break points.
Speaker 1: They won Game three, they were ten points better than
Speaker 1: Boston in transition. They are winning this series in transition
Speaker 1: in half In the half court, Boston has consistently been
Speaker 1: the better team. Obviously, they were the better team in
Speaker 1: the first two games. We talked about that, but it's
Speaker 1: the question was if we go to Milwaukee, will Milwaukee's
Speaker 1: half court offense get better? No, it actually has been worse.
Speaker 1: It's it was worse in Milwaukee than it was in
Speaker 1: the first two games. So last in yesterday's game, Milwaukee
Speaker 1: average zero points seven six points per half court play.
Speaker 1: Boston average zero point eight one. So Boston was the
Speaker 1: better half court team in Boston. They've continued to be
Speaker 1: the better half court team here in Milwaukee. What does
Speaker 1: that mean? What that means to me is that's how
Speaker 1: this series is going to be determined. Boston has demonstrated
Speaker 1: that that is in it, that is a replicable skill
Speaker 1: to be the better team in the half court. Not
Speaker 1: because Jan this is the best player in the series.
Speaker 1: He's also probably the best half court creator in the series.
Speaker 1: But Boston has far more players on the floor at
Speaker 1: any given moment that can drive, that can dribble, drive, pass,
Speaker 1: and shoot, and that combination makes them much harder to guard.
Speaker 1: Boston has our Milwaukee has some more traditional spot up guys,
Speaker 1: guys that aren't grade at attacking closeouts and things along
Speaker 1: those lines, so so much more is on Janice and
Speaker 1: Drew Holiday's plate to create shots. Boston doesn't have that
Speaker 1: problem because they have more offensive talents surrounding Jayson Tatum. Right.
Speaker 1: But this is how the series is going to be determined.
Speaker 1: If Boston takes smart shots and can stay in the
Speaker 1: half court, they will win. If they continue to get
Speaker 1: wrapped up in poor decision making, quick three point shots
Speaker 1: off the dribble, just overall sloppy offense, they will continue
Speaker 1: to let Milwaukee get out in transition and they will lose.
Speaker 1: You know that I I picked Boston to win this
Speaker 1: series in five. But the reason why this is up
Speaker 1: in the air is Boston has killed themselves in two
Speaker 1: of these games and transition that's where this thing has been.
Speaker 1: That that's where this series has swung. And the issue
Speaker 1: is is that's controllable. If you're Boston, that's just take
Speaker 1: care of the basketball, make smart decisions, don't get those
Speaker 1: kinds of things. But if you're Milwaukee, the way that
Speaker 1: you win this series is you run at all costs,
Speaker 1: push on every possible possession because in the half court
Speaker 1: you are not scoring against this Boston defense. You know, Joannice,
Speaker 1: and I mean this is a compliment to him. Um,
Speaker 1: I think Janice is on a tear by himself at
Speaker 1: the top of the league. I think this reminds me
Speaker 1: of Lebron Circle two thousand thirteen, where it appears that
Speaker 1: there's a definitive gap between Lebron and the next guy.
Speaker 1: I thought Lebron was the best player in the world
Speaker 1: from two thousand twelves to two thousand twenty without interruption,
Speaker 1: but right around two thousand fourteen when k d rose
Speaker 1: and then obviously in two thousand fifteen when Steph Roze,
Speaker 1: it got close. And obviously, even though I thought Lebron
Speaker 1: was better than those guys, I thought they were kind
Speaker 1: of in the same tier as him, and given night,
Speaker 1: they were capable about playing him right with Janice, it
Speaker 1: kind of feels like the way it did with Lebron
Speaker 1: in those first couple of years when he was at
Speaker 1: the top the league, where it's like, who is the
Speaker 1: second best guy? Is it Kobe? I mean yeah, but
Speaker 1: Kobe was nowhere near as good as Lebron In two
Speaker 1: thousand thirteen, was it, you know, Katie? Yeah, but he's
Speaker 1: still he's a baby. He's not quite developed yet, Johanna
Speaker 1: seems for Jhannice, it's a different dynamic because he's kind
Speaker 1: of fending off guys that are established guys like Katie
Speaker 1: and Lebron and Steph. Right, but Janice isn't a tear
Speaker 1: by himself at the top of the league right now.
Speaker 1: We have to just acknowledge that based on what we're
Speaker 1: seeing on the floor. The interesting thing is is Boston
Speaker 1: is still having a massive impact on him. Boston has
Speaker 1: held him to fifteen percent below his regular season true
Speaker 1: shooting percentage. He's shooting forty eight point nine percent in
Speaker 1: true shooting in this series. That's insane. Not true shooting
Speaker 1: is just literally your field goal percentage but weighted with
Speaker 1: three point shots and free throws. That's all it is.
Speaker 1: But it's incredibly impressive what Boston has done to him.
Speaker 1: That said, he's been able to impact the game a ton,
Speaker 1: just with his relentless attacking of the rim, in his playmaking,
Speaker 1: in his defense. He's averaging thirty one, eleven and nine
Speaker 1: in this series, which is in obviously not efficient, but
Speaker 1: he's putting up the impact metrics and as I have said,
Speaker 1: credit Boston for the lack of efficiency. If they did
Speaker 1: it to k D, they were obviously going to do
Speaker 1: it to honest they're the best defensive team of this era.
Speaker 1: I've said that many times, and it was really and
Speaker 1: honestly was kind of nice to hear JJ Reddick and
Speaker 1: Tim Legler say the same thing on the pod that
Speaker 1: they did the other day, because obviously those guys have
Speaker 1: a lot more credibility than I do because they've been
Speaker 1: around for a long time, they're established be guys. I
Speaker 1: wasn't saying that for poops and giggles. I'm literally a
Speaker 1: guy who covered the Lakers for the last two years.
Speaker 1: All my Twitter followers, for the most part, our Lakers fans.
Speaker 1: I don't stand to gain anything by advocating for the Celtics.
Speaker 1: But what I do do, guys, is I put in
Speaker 1: the work. I watched a ship ton of tape. I
Speaker 1: watched it almost every game twice, okay, And when I
Speaker 1: was digging into the tape and when I was digging
Speaker 1: into the numbers, we are seeing things from this Boston
Speaker 1: defense that we have never seen before from any other
Speaker 1: team in recent NBA history. Okay, so I'm just acknowledging
Speaker 1: what I'm seeing with my eyes. That's why Boston was
Speaker 1: a minus two favorite before this series. To Janice is
Speaker 1: credit he has in so great that he has overcome
Speaker 1: that to the extent that he's been able to pull
Speaker 1: out a couple of games. It actually kind of reminds
Speaker 1: me of Lebron in the two thousand fifteen finals against
Speaker 1: Golden State, them taking a two one lead on the
Speaker 1: strength of greatness from Lebron or in this case, your
Speaker 1: honest inefficiently. Remember Lebron was horribly inefficient in that series
Speaker 1: because Golden State was loading up on him. Jannice is
Speaker 1: dealing with the same thing now. But eventually, the better
Speaker 1: team that consistently gets better shots is gonna take over.
Speaker 1: And that's what I think is gonna happen in this series.
Speaker 1: I think Boston is gonna win Game four tomorrow. I
Speaker 1: think they're gonna win. I think it'll be a relatively
Speaker 1: close game, but I wouldn't be surprised if Boston won
Speaker 1: by ten fifteen points. And then I think they're gonna
Speaker 1: go home and win Game five in Boston in front
Speaker 1: of their home crowd, win big. I think they'll win.
Speaker 1: I think they'll have control of that game. And then
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna go into Game six in Milwaukee,
Speaker 1: and that offense, all all of the offensive things that
Speaker 1: Boston will have figured out, I think they will have
Speaker 1: taken hold, and I think they'll be consistent there, and
Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to go on the road
Speaker 1: and win a game there. I think bos and wins
Speaker 1: the series and six. I know people think I'm crazy,
Speaker 1: but I'm just paying attention to what I'm seeing in
Speaker 1: the numbers. I'm paying attention to what I'm seeing in
Speaker 1: the film, and I'm trusting that I am also not
Speaker 1: I'm not like stupid enough to think that Janice isn't
Speaker 1: capable of overcoming that. Of course he is. Lebron damn
Speaker 1: near did it. In two thousand fifteen. He went in
Speaker 1: Game five in Golden State and had another crazy, you know,
Speaker 1: forty six point game or something, and it just wasn't
Speaker 1: quite enough. And maybe maybe Honest is capable of that.
Speaker 1: You know, one of my friends de Monrangoula was talking
Speaker 1: on Twitter yesterday about how, you know, Joannice might have
Speaker 1: to average fifty to win this series, and he's right,
Speaker 1: he might literally have to average fifty, but he's also
Speaker 1: capable of that. That's not out of the realm of possibility.
Speaker 1: That's just what he's gonna have to do. You know,
Speaker 1: Johannese is gonna have to put up put up other
Speaker 1: worldly performances down the stretch of this series to win.
Speaker 1: He just also might be capable of doing it. I
Speaker 1: just I'm still picking Boston at this point. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: that is all I have for tonight. I sincerely appreciate
Speaker 1: your support. As always, we will be back at tore
Speaker 1: the final buzzer of Warriors Grizzlies tomorrow night, and I'll
Speaker 1: see you guys. Then the volume