WEBVTT - Here's Why Biden's Woes Aren't Having More Impact on Polls

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. I'm Stephen Carol and

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<v Speaker 1>this is Here's Why, where we take one news story

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<v Speaker 1>and explain it in just a few minutes with our

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<v Speaker 1>experts here at Bloomberg. The Trump Biden debate on June

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seventh was supposed to be a warm up match

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<v Speaker 1>before either candidate officially secured their party's nomination. Instead, it

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<v Speaker 1>turned into a watershed moment for Joe Biden, sparking a

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<v Speaker 1>firestorm of speculation over his ability to serve another term

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<v Speaker 1>as president. I don't walk as easy as I used to.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't speak as.

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<v Speaker 1>Smooth as I used to. I don't debate as well.

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<v Speaker 2>As I used to. Well, I know how to do

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<v Speaker 2>this job. I know how to get things done.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't like millions of Americas now, when you get

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<v Speaker 1>knocked down, you get back up. Heading into the debate,

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Biden was try railing Donald Trump slightly in the

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<v Speaker 1>polls and in the two weeks following it. That hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>changed dramatically. In fact, the Bloomberg News Morning Consult poll

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<v Speaker 1>of battleground states conducted after the debate saw Biden's best

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<v Speaker 1>showing yet, despite voters rating his TV performance poorly. So

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<v Speaker 1>here's why Biden's woes aren't having more impact on polls

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<v Speaker 1>our money in politics are. Laura Davison joins us from

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<v Speaker 1>Washington for more. First of all, what have polls told

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<v Speaker 1>us about views of Joe Biden since the debate?

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<v Speaker 2>So we have several different data points that have come out.

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<v Speaker 2>One is the Bloomberg News Morning Console poll that you referenced,

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<v Speaker 2>and this is actually the best reading in the poll

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<v Speaker 2>since we've started conducting it last October. This is a

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<v Speaker 2>poll of seven different swing states. We're pulling a bunch

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<v Speaker 2>of different issues. But one of the things we'd look

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<v Speaker 2>at is that top horse race number. Biden is registering

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<v Speaker 2>at forty five percent and Trump at forty seven percent.

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<v Speaker 2>That is outside the margin of air, but it shows

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<v Speaker 2>a very close reading, and given that we're still four

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<v Speaker 2>months out from the election, indicates that this is a

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<v Speaker 2>very close race. There's several other points that we've seen,

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<v Speaker 2>some that sort of support this race tightening and some

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<v Speaker 2>that are divergent. There's been several national polls that have

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<v Speaker 2>been conducted that have shown Biden falling further behind. I'll

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<v Speaker 2>note the difference there is that is looking nationwide, whereas

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<v Speaker 2>the Bloomberg Pole is just looking at those battleground states

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<v Speaker 2>that are going to be the ones that really decide

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<v Speaker 2>the election. There's also a new poll out from ABC

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<v Speaker 2>that is also a national poll, but shows it neck

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<v Speaker 2>and neck for Biden and Trump Biden at forty six percent,

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<v Speaker 2>Trump at forty seven percent. Another thing that has come

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<v Speaker 2>out since the debate that has also been closely watched

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<v Speaker 2>by both Republicans and Democrats is this report from a

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<v Speaker 2>group called the Cook Political Report, and they basically look

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<v Speaker 2>at different states and rate them as how likely they

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<v Speaker 2>are to be for Republicans, for Democrats, or if they're

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<v Speaker 2>a toss up. They earlier this week re rated six

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<v Speaker 2>different states and basically moved them all in the direction

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<v Speaker 2>of Trump. That's been one of the signs that's been

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<v Speaker 2>really worrying for Democrats in particular, and is actually some

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<v Speaker 2>Democrats who have come out and called for Biden to

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<v Speaker 2>step down. They've cited this specifically, saying, look, the map

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<v Speaker 2>in general is moving more in Trump's favor and we

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<v Speaker 2>need to do something to stop the bleeding here.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, because certainly what we've been hearing from stoners and

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<v Speaker 1>this sort of chorus or increasing chorus of Democrats talking

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<v Speaker 1>about asking questions about Joe Biden's health. It doesn't yet

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<v Speaker 1>seem to quite match up with what we're seeing from Poles.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there any way that we can understand why that is?

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<v Speaker 2>Both can be true? Is one that the race can

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<v Speaker 2>be tightening as well as you know that Democrats and

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<v Speaker 2>Republicans are expressing concerns about Biden's age, health, mental acuity.

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<v Speaker 2>In our Bloomberg poll, you know, we found that the

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<v Speaker 2>race is tightening, but also three in ten Democrats think

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<v Speaker 2>that Biden should bow out with the race. We ask

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<v Speaker 2>a bunch of different questions about mental, fitness, acuity, age health,

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<v Speaker 2>and none of those were particularly positive for Biden. A

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<v Speaker 2>majority of people think that he's too old to run again.

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<v Speaker 2>But where we see that what sort of explains the

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<v Speaker 2>difference here is just the deep partisanship in the US

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<v Speaker 2>and that people when they're faced with a binary choice

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<v Speaker 2>of either Trump or Biden, people really go into their

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<v Speaker 2>camps and say, look, even if I have some concerns

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<v Speaker 2>about my candidate, I'm still ultimately going to vote for

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<v Speaker 2>them if that's the choice I have.

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<v Speaker 1>So ultimately, can we attribute then some of that support

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<v Speaker 1>to Joe Biden to just people voting against Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, And you know, even if you talk with the

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<v Speaker 2>Biden campaign, they are happy to have a vote. If

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<v Speaker 2>it's someone who is firmly, solidly enthusiastically for Biden, or

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<v Speaker 2>if it's someone who is maybe lukewarm on Biden but

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<v Speaker 2>very much opposed to Trump, both those votes count the same.

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<v Speaker 2>They'll tell you.

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<v Speaker 1>What could shift this further in the polls. What should

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<v Speaker 1>we be watching out for is things that might actually

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<v Speaker 1>change some of those voters' minds.

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<v Speaker 2>So there's a long way from now until the election.

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<v Speaker 2>There are certain things that could happen with either candidate.

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<v Speaker 2>So we have seen that Trump has earned this name

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<v Speaker 2>Teflon Trump that you know, bad things can happen. He

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<v Speaker 2>can be convicted, you know, I'm thirty four of felon accounts.

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<v Speaker 2>He can go out and say that are very controversial.

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<v Speaker 2>But none of those things seem to really register for

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<v Speaker 2>him and in some cases actually help his pole standing

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<v Speaker 2>versus hurt him or help him in other ways such

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<v Speaker 2>as fundraising. Biden is a little bit more susceptible to

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<v Speaker 2>things that are happening dragging on his polling. Anything that

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<v Speaker 2>would be a downturn in the economy, or at least

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<v Speaker 2>perceptions of the economy, have been a key issue for him.

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<v Speaker 2>There's also we saw this in twenty twenty. There is

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<v Speaker 2>a big national event of course, the pandemic is what

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<v Speaker 2>I'm referred to here, that really changed a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>the dynamics of the race. Some sort of tragedy, a

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<v Speaker 2>terrorist attack, some sort of new war, some sort of

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<v Speaker 2>major natural disaster, all of these things could throw a

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<v Speaker 2>wrench into the race. That's completely unexpected. But the things

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<v Speaker 2>that we do know going forward is that people are

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<v Speaker 2>going to be closely watching Biden's performance out in public.

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<v Speaker 2>He has several public appearances scheduled for this week and next,

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<v Speaker 2>and Democrats themselves have said, look, we are waiting to see,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, how he does when he is out unscripted

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<v Speaker 2>in front of voters, and even Nancy Pelosi, the former

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<v Speaker 2>House Speaker who's still a very trust to voice within

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<v Speaker 2>the party, has said to hold off saying anything publicly

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<v Speaker 2>about what you think Biden should do going forward, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>until after voters and Democrats and everyone gets to see

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<v Speaker 2>a chance of how he performs this week.

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<v Speaker 1>So I suppose what we're learning is is the stickiness

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<v Speaker 1>of the votes that are chabusted both to Trump and

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<v Speaker 1>to Biden at this point in the campaign. Is that

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<v Speaker 1>normal in presidential races or is this unusual? This factor

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<v Speaker 1>this is the new normal.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, going back forty or fifty years ago, this

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<v Speaker 2>would not have necessarily been the case. But in the

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<v Speaker 2>modern era of US politics, going back several cycles, what

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<v Speaker 2>we have come to expect is that each candidate is

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<v Speaker 2>not going to dip down but low. There's sort of

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<v Speaker 2>a floor and a ceiling for each of them, and

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<v Speaker 2>there's only really in these battleground states five ten, twenty

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<v Speaker 2>thousand votes that really make a difference, and those are

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<v Speaker 2>the key voters that both campaigns are trying to persuade,

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<v Speaker 2>versus trying to make a big national case, because that's

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<v Speaker 2>just not how races in the US are won.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, our money and politics are Laura Davison, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>for helping us understand and where we are in this

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<v Speaker 1>fast moving story. For more explanations like this from our

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<v Speaker 1>team of twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts around the world,

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<v Speaker 1>search for Quick Take on the Bloomberg website or the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business app. I'm Stephen Carol. This is here's why

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<v Speaker 1>I'll be back next week with more thanks for listening.