1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. I'm Stephen Carol and 2 00:00:10,360 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: this is Here's Why, where we take one news story 3 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:14,880 Speaker 1: and explain it in just a few minutes with our 4 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:21,599 Speaker 1: experts here at Bloomberg. The Trump Biden debate on June 5 00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: twenty seventh was supposed to be a warm up match 6 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:29,319 Speaker 1: before either candidate officially secured their party's nomination. Instead, it 7 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 1: turned into a watershed moment for Joe Biden, sparking a 8 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 1: firestorm of speculation over his ability to serve another term 9 00:00:36,360 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: as president. I don't walk as easy as I used to. 10 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 2: I don't speak as. 11 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: Smooth as I used to. I don't debate as well. 12 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,599 Speaker 2: As I used to. Well, I know how to do 13 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 2: this job. I know how to get things done. 14 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: I don't like millions of Americas now, when you get 15 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 1: knocked down, you get back up. Heading into the debate, 16 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 1: Joe Biden was try railing Donald Trump slightly in the 17 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: polls and in the two weeks following it. That hasn't 18 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: changed dramatically. In fact, the Bloomberg News Morning Consult poll 19 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:12,679 Speaker 1: of battleground states conducted after the debate saw Biden's best 20 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 1: showing yet, despite voters rating his TV performance poorly. So 21 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: here's why Biden's woes aren't having more impact on polls 22 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 1: our money in politics are. Laura Davison joins us from 23 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,759 Speaker 1: Washington for more. First of all, what have polls told 24 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 1: us about views of Joe Biden since the debate? 25 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 2: So we have several different data points that have come out. 26 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:39,039 Speaker 2: One is the Bloomberg News Morning Console poll that you referenced, 27 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:41,679 Speaker 2: and this is actually the best reading in the poll 28 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 2: since we've started conducting it last October. This is a 29 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 2: poll of seven different swing states. We're pulling a bunch 30 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 2: of different issues. But one of the things we'd look 31 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 2: at is that top horse race number. Biden is registering 32 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 2: at forty five percent and Trump at forty seven percent. 33 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 2: That is outside the margin of air, but it shows 34 00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 2: a very close reading, and given that we're still four 35 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 2: months out from the election, indicates that this is a 36 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 2: very close race. There's several other points that we've seen, 37 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 2: some that sort of support this race tightening and some 38 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 2: that are divergent. There's been several national polls that have 39 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:13,360 Speaker 2: been conducted that have shown Biden falling further behind. I'll 40 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,880 Speaker 2: note the difference there is that is looking nationwide, whereas 41 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Pole is just looking at those battleground states 42 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 2: that are going to be the ones that really decide 43 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 2: the election. There's also a new poll out from ABC 44 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 2: that is also a national poll, but shows it neck 45 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 2: and neck for Biden and Trump Biden at forty six percent, 46 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 2: Trump at forty seven percent. Another thing that has come 47 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 2: out since the debate that has also been closely watched 48 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 2: by both Republicans and Democrats is this report from a 49 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,920 Speaker 2: group called the Cook Political Report, and they basically look 50 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 2: at different states and rate them as how likely they 51 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 2: are to be for Republicans, for Democrats, or if they're 52 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 2: a toss up. They earlier this week re rated six 53 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 2: different states and basically moved them all in the direction 54 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 2: of Trump. That's been one of the signs that's been 55 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 2: really worrying for Democrats in particular, and is actually some 56 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 2: Democrats who have come out and called for Biden to 57 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 2: step down. They've cited this specifically, saying, look, the map 58 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 2: in general is moving more in Trump's favor and we 59 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 2: need to do something to stop the bleeding here. 60 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, because certainly what we've been hearing from stoners and 61 00:03:12,880 --> 00:03:17,080 Speaker 1: this sort of chorus or increasing chorus of Democrats talking 62 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: about asking questions about Joe Biden's health. It doesn't yet 63 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 1: seem to quite match up with what we're seeing from Poles. 64 00:03:24,880 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 1: Is there any way that we can understand why that is? 65 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 2: Both can be true? Is one that the race can 66 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 2: be tightening as well as you know that Democrats and 67 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 2: Republicans are expressing concerns about Biden's age, health, mental acuity. 68 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 2: In our Bloomberg poll, you know, we found that the 69 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 2: race is tightening, but also three in ten Democrats think 70 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 2: that Biden should bow out with the race. We ask 71 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 2: a bunch of different questions about mental, fitness, acuity, age health, 72 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: and none of those were particularly positive for Biden. A 73 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 2: majority of people think that he's too old to run again. 74 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 2: But where we see that what sort of explains the 75 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 2: difference here is just the deep partisanship in the US 76 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 2: and that people when they're faced with a binary choice 77 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 2: of either Trump or Biden, people really go into their 78 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: camps and say, look, even if I have some concerns 79 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 2: about my candidate, I'm still ultimately going to vote for 80 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 2: them if that's the choice I have. 81 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 1: So ultimately, can we attribute then some of that support 82 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 1: to Joe Biden to just people voting against Donald Trump. 83 00:04:19,640 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 2: Yes, And you know, even if you talk with the 84 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 2: Biden campaign, they are happy to have a vote. If 85 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 2: it's someone who is firmly, solidly enthusiastically for Biden, or 86 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 2: if it's someone who is maybe lukewarm on Biden but 87 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,159 Speaker 2: very much opposed to Trump, both those votes count the same. 88 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 2: They'll tell you. 89 00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 1: What could shift this further in the polls. What should 90 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:40,279 Speaker 1: we be watching out for is things that might actually 91 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: change some of those voters' minds. 92 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 2: So there's a long way from now until the election. 93 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,919 Speaker 2: There are certain things that could happen with either candidate. 94 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 2: So we have seen that Trump has earned this name 95 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 2: Teflon Trump that you know, bad things can happen. He 96 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 2: can be convicted, you know, I'm thirty four of felon accounts. 97 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 2: He can go out and say that are very controversial. 98 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,359 Speaker 2: But none of those things seem to really register for 99 00:05:03,440 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 2: him and in some cases actually help his pole standing 100 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:08,280 Speaker 2: versus hurt him or help him in other ways such 101 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 2: as fundraising. Biden is a little bit more susceptible to 102 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,800 Speaker 2: things that are happening dragging on his polling. Anything that 103 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 2: would be a downturn in the economy, or at least 104 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 2: perceptions of the economy, have been a key issue for him. 105 00:05:20,720 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 2: There's also we saw this in twenty twenty. There is 106 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:25,839 Speaker 2: a big national event of course, the pandemic is what 107 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,159 Speaker 2: I'm referred to here, that really changed a lot of 108 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 2: the dynamics of the race. Some sort of tragedy, a 109 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 2: terrorist attack, some sort of new war, some sort of 110 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 2: major natural disaster, all of these things could throw a 111 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 2: wrench into the race. That's completely unexpected. But the things 112 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 2: that we do know going forward is that people are 113 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 2: going to be closely watching Biden's performance out in public. 114 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 2: He has several public appearances scheduled for this week and next, 115 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 2: and Democrats themselves have said, look, we are waiting to see, 116 00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 2: you know, how he does when he is out unscripted 117 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 2: in front of voters, and even Nancy Pelosi, the former 118 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 2: House Speaker who's still a very trust to voice within 119 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 2: the party, has said to hold off saying anything publicly 120 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:06,840 Speaker 2: about what you think Biden should do going forward, you know, 121 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 2: until after voters and Democrats and everyone gets to see 122 00:06:09,960 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 2: a chance of how he performs this week. 123 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,480 Speaker 1: So I suppose what we're learning is is the stickiness 124 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 1: of the votes that are chabusted both to Trump and 125 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 1: to Biden at this point in the campaign. Is that 126 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:24,799 Speaker 1: normal in presidential races or is this unusual? This factor 127 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: this is the new normal. 128 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 2: You know, going back forty or fifty years ago, this 129 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 2: would not have necessarily been the case. But in the 130 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:35,280 Speaker 2: modern era of US politics, going back several cycles, what 131 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 2: we have come to expect is that each candidate is 132 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 2: not going to dip down but low. There's sort of 133 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:42,360 Speaker 2: a floor and a ceiling for each of them, and 134 00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 2: there's only really in these battleground states five ten, twenty 135 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:48,480 Speaker 2: thousand votes that really make a difference, and those are 136 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:51,360 Speaker 2: the key voters that both campaigns are trying to persuade, 137 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,240 Speaker 2: versus trying to make a big national case, because that's 138 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 2: just not how races in the US are won. 139 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: Okay, our money and politics are Laura Davison, thank you 140 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: for helping us understand and where we are in this 141 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,920 Speaker 1: fast moving story. For more explanations like this from our 142 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 1: team of twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts around the world, 143 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: search for Quick Take on the Bloomberg website or the 144 00:07:10,200 --> 00:07:14,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. I'm Stephen Carol. This is here's why 145 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: I'll be back next week with more thanks for listening.