1 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,280 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a Bloomberg Weekly 2 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 1: Markets podcast. I'm Sarah pon Sec, a market reporter on 3 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:22,760 Speaker 1: the Cross Asset team, and I'm Mike Reagan, a senior 4 00:00:22,880 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 1: editor on the Markets team. It was just last week 5 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:29,160 Speaker 1: that higher tariffs caught investors by surprise, sending the SMP 6 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: to its worst week of the year. Well, now markets 7 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: are bouncing back. Is this as bad as it will get? 8 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 1: Will analyze the latest on US China trade. Plus the 9 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:42,199 Speaker 1: bond market hasn't been any more sure this year that 10 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: the Fed will actually cut rates. And don't worry. We'll 11 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:48,279 Speaker 1: close out the episode with our tradition, the craziest thing 12 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: I saw in markets this week. Don't worry, Sarah, I've 13 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: got a good one. You've got a good one. I 14 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: I do have a good one. I'm ready, I'm ready. 15 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: Hopefully our guests have a good one. I think our 16 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 1: first guest is a little worried that his his craziest 17 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: thing isn't that crazy. Joining us this week are pen 18 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 1: Pal Here at Bloomberg. We talked to this guy a lot. 19 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 1: Ben Emmons, Managing director for Global macro Strategy at Medley Advisors. 20 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: UM Now, Ben, you were born in the Netherlands, but 21 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,319 Speaker 1: then you spent a long time at Pimco in the 22 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 1: Bill Gross era. So I kind of think of you 23 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,839 Speaker 1: as a California dude. Is that fair? Is fair? That's fair. 24 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 1: I think of you as the California I got. I 25 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,840 Speaker 1: got the blond hair, I got the tan, I even 26 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: got the muscles. So so whatever I see you in 27 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 1: New York, I assume the surf is not up in 28 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:36,119 Speaker 1: California right now. I got. I got a message from 29 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: my son's school like his rainy day today, you gotta 30 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: come early to pick him up. So I was like, hey, okay, Sunshine, 31 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: I'm a good place. And our other guests this week 32 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: is my pal e She. Now she and I have 33 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: worked together. What's the twelve years? We were actually in 34 00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: the same Bloomberg boot camp training class years ago. Yeah, 35 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: definitely a while, Sarah. The reason I love she. I 36 00:01:57,480 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: don't think listeners realize this, but one of the big 37 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 1: perks here at Bloomberg is they put out free soup 38 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 1: at lunch and it's usually pretty good. I'd say they're 39 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: batting at least five on the soups. And she, whenever 40 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:09,920 Speaker 1: he goes again, when he always picks up a second 41 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 1: one team player, which I it's very nice because Michael 42 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: used to be my boss and and to paint a 43 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: picture for those of you out there, when you go 44 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 1: to get a soup at Bloomberg, it is like battle time. 45 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,320 Speaker 1: As nice as that is. That is on She's part. 46 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 1: That's not why we brought him on as a guest. 47 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: It's actually he's probably the most knowledgeable about Chinese politics 48 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 1: and markets and economy here. So no pressure, she, but 49 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: we're hoping you can explain everything to us. I need 50 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:43,679 Speaker 1: to practice with my Mandarin at least I want to 51 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: get right to it. Because you look at the markets 52 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 1: reaction this week. Put aside Monday, Monday was rough, but 53 00:02:50,080 --> 00:02:53,959 Speaker 1: we really saw a rebound in stocks this week, as 54 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 1: if they don't really care so much about the goings 55 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:01,239 Speaker 1: on between US China trade. Ben, I want to come 56 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 1: to you first, how much does this all actually matter 57 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:08,720 Speaker 1: to the stock market. So it's interesting, Sarah, because you 58 00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 1: would think that we're going exactly through the same episode 59 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 1: as last year, right when we had the first time 60 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 1: the threat of this two and a billion of terrors, 61 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: and at the first followed with this episode in October 62 00:03:19,480 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: and all this volatility, and we kind of have the 63 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 1: same thing, right, we had him coming out suddenly hiking 64 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 1: terrors and then more threats coming and you would think 65 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: the same voltating. Yes, that was just on Monday, but 66 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: I have to say that also at that time in 67 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: septem October, we had bouncers like this, really because the 68 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: market is trying to, I think, to do two things. One, 69 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: it's of course trying to understand what's the world of 70 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: terrors really mean, and so there's a lot of opposing 71 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: views about this, right who pays for the tears? And 72 00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 1: then the second thing is it's like, wow, it's just terrors, right, 73 00:03:51,560 --> 00:03:53,640 Speaker 1: We're not actually dealing with any kind of great hikes. 74 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 1: You know, I've kind of made it that sound like 75 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: the same. It's not really great hikes, and it's not 76 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: really right now killing our economy, right, it will be 77 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: maybe something in the future. So I think that's part 78 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 1: of the reason why I see this relief bounds. And 79 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,839 Speaker 1: yet in the treasury market it seems very much risk off. 80 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:13,880 Speaker 1: You know, treasuries are bid this week, fields are coming down. Um, 81 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: stock market it was risk off, but now it's back 82 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: to that rally mode. UM it always begs the question 83 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 1: is one of them right, one of them wrong, or 84 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,599 Speaker 1: does one market just understand President trump sprinkmanship better? Do 85 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 1: you think, I mean, what what's your take on all that? 86 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:29,799 Speaker 1: So I would actually think, Mike that that the bondmark 87 00:04:29,839 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: has been pretty rational about this trade deal. And for 88 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 1: a while I wasn't in that game myself, but after 89 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: sort of the analysis of the latest bet that we 90 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: went through. Now, if you take take us back to January, 91 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 1: when we came in a new year, that Marcus started rebound, 92 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:46,359 Speaker 1: but there was a lot of chatter out there like 93 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:48,799 Speaker 1: the trade talks are going well. I mean, things are progressing, 94 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 1: and you know, rally continues, but the bond market wasn't 95 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: really moving along. But it was a little bit moving rates, 96 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:56,720 Speaker 1: but not much. Of course data is weak and and 97 00:04:56,720 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: and so forth. But since that time, we haven't read 98 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: moved substantially higher rates at all. If anything, we're now 99 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: a lot lower. And I think that the markets in 100 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 1: fixed income has continue to look at this saying this 101 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,600 Speaker 1: deal isn't that really going there? Well, these negotiations are 102 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 1: maybe that's constructive, and you know there's a risk that 103 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 1: things do fall apart, and that uncertainty is reflected in 104 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 1: the U Grove particularly that stayed flat all the way 105 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: through this whole episode of the stock market rebounds generating. 106 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:27,280 Speaker 1: I think that was a kind of signal the bond 107 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: market had a better sense of where we were in 108 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,800 Speaker 1: these straight negotiations than the stock market. So you mentioned 109 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 1: that something people are trying to figure out is who 110 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: actually pays for these tariffs? And Walmart came out this 111 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,840 Speaker 1: past week they reported earnings and they said that when 112 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 1: these higher tariffs do go into play, because a lot 113 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,039 Speaker 1: of the new list of that three billion, if it 114 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 1: does go into play, it's really a lot on some 115 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 1: of the goods that Walmart cells clothing as well, and 116 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: they've said they're going to pass it on to the consumer. 117 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 1: What do these tariffs actually mean for the economy? Then 118 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 1: the first inclusion would take is that this this would 119 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: change the demands and one people would maybe look at 120 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,599 Speaker 1: those products and by other things when or people would 121 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:09,600 Speaker 1: just not buy him at all. Right, I mean that 122 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: would be the initial idea. Then I think people would 123 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 1: start to anticipate like this is gonna stop here or 124 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: going to see more. Now, here's an important difference between 125 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: the episode from last year and this year. This time, 126 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:28,359 Speaker 1: the next round of terroffs on three billions so is 127 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: now officially in the in the federal registered by the 128 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,160 Speaker 1: U S Trade Representative. That didn't happen the last time, right, 129 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 1: we had ten percent on two and a billion and 130 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: in the thread of but but there was never anything 131 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 1: else really formally announced and that that thread was taken back. 132 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 1: This time we're dealing with actually something that he threatened 133 00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,159 Speaker 1: with and actually put it out there for comments. So 134 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 1: if anything goes wrong, then people know like, okay, this 135 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 1: has got there's more coming. And I think that will 136 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:56,600 Speaker 1: really change people's behavior by this kind like Okay, we're 137 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: gonna deal with substantially more terrors and companies will will 138 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: are bare for that. So yeah, it's a big, big 139 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: change now. She obviously China can't match the US tariffs 140 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: dollar for dollar. They simply don't import is uh much 141 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: US goods as they export to the US. So the 142 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: question on everyone's mind is how will they retaliate? But 143 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 1: will they retaliate? And you know people obviously talking about 144 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 1: um they own more than a trillion dollars in treasuries. 145 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 1: They could start selling them off and spike in interest rates. 146 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 1: Others wonder if they'll let the currency just go into 147 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: free all free fall to make their exports uh more competitive. Um. Now, 148 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: there's problems with both those scenarios, but I'm just curious, 149 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: what do you think where would you expect to see 150 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 1: any sort of retaliation? Um? Yeah, definitely, Chinese has some 151 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 1: Trump casts in the hands. You mentioned the treasury, you 152 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 1: mentioned the You've been waiting to use that one. They 153 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:54,560 Speaker 1: have a lot of cause that can plain. They own 154 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: one trillion dollars of US treasury, they can sell to 155 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: the market. They have the manage the Chinese you want 156 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 1: on to offset some of the costs from the tariffs. 157 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,880 Speaker 1: But I think these are like last options. So the 158 00:08:06,120 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: signals they have been sending is that they're still willing 159 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 1: to engage. They're still willing to talk. Remember last week 160 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: before the Chinese send the meeting to send the team 161 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: to DC to continue the latest round of negotiation, Trump 162 00:08:18,520 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: who was threatening to raise the tariff, But the Chinese 163 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: still send that team to the d C, but they 164 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 1: cut the trip shot. Basically, He's said, they are sending 165 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: the signal that they are willing to engage, but they 166 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 1: are they're diggetting. They have to make that demand and 167 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,559 Speaker 1: their bottom line clear to the people in the US 168 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 1: and to the market that they are not going to 169 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:42,559 Speaker 1: giving to the maximum pressure that Trump is putting on 170 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: the China. Right. I'm glad you mentioned the talks in 171 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 1: in DC start. Do you realize whenever the Chinese delegation 172 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 1: comes to talk in d C, we send she down 173 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 1: there to follow them around hoping for a quote. I 174 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 1: have to I have to say I I didn't know that, 175 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: and I saw she's name on a byeline last week 176 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:00,560 Speaker 1: and I realized. I said, oh my gosh, they sent 177 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 1: him down to d C to try to get I 178 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 1: think it's not a bad gig because they never talked, right, Yeah, exactly, 179 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: well expectation, except this time. It's very interesting to me 180 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 1: because I usually mentioned that the Chinese used to be 181 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 1: very silent, especially when it comes to the trade, because 182 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: they don't want to play the nationalism sentiment at home. 183 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:22,960 Speaker 1: But this time, Um lil Her, the Vice Premier who's 184 00:09:23,040 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 1: leading the Chinese side of the negotiation, he's actually gave 185 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 1: like two interviews to state media. In that interview, he 186 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 1: made a clear the three major disagreement between the U 187 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: S side and China side, which is for the first 188 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: time they relieved the disagreement from the China side, one 189 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 1: is that the all the tariffs have to be gone, 190 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 1: have to be removed for any deal to happen. Secondly, 191 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:51,719 Speaker 1: the Chinese purchase of the American goods has to be realistic, 192 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: so you as can't demand a lot of the purchase 193 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 1: from the China side. And so part of is the 194 00:09:56,679 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: language in the final agreement has to be respectful, has 195 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 1: show the dignity um and equality, reflect that dignity and 196 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:07,000 Speaker 1: reflect the equality from the Chinese side. I thought this 197 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 1: is a very strong signal chineses sending because by making 198 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: this very public, it's very easy to check. So it's 199 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 1: very unlikely China is going to back down from these 200 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 1: three uh criteria sent up. So if we demand they 201 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:27,160 Speaker 1: buy Trump steaks and Trump vodka, yeah, yeah, exactly. Yeah. 202 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: I mean those are some pretty strong demands and now 203 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 1: they are made public now. Ben, something I've been thinking 204 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 1: a lot about and speaking with investors this week is 205 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: the idea that the logic behind the deal getting done 206 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: is just the fact that it has to get done. 207 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: It would be bad for both sides if it didn't. 208 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: So everyone is holding on to this idea that a 209 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 1: deal will get done. I mean, if everyone is thinking 210 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 1: that way, does it just potentially make it worse if 211 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 1: we keep seeing the can kick down the road, if 212 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 1: this goes on until the election potentially beyond. That's exactly right, Sarah, 213 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 1: because normally to kick the can down road a supposed 214 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: to be very positive for markets because of the mental 215 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 1: was that a difficult decision was put off, say that 216 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:10,000 Speaker 1: ceiling or shutdown or anything related to that or whatever 217 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 1: kind of regulation. So markets have to deal with the 218 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,679 Speaker 1: negative outcome from that and therefore you rally. But this 219 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:17,679 Speaker 1: time this is different. Right, If you kick the cannon 220 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:19,880 Speaker 1: a road on the straight deal, we now sort of 221 00:11:19,880 --> 00:11:22,319 Speaker 1: have a timeline what could happen. We could see by 222 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 1: July more tears on a larger number of goods. In addition, 223 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 1: in the following four months from there we could see 224 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,520 Speaker 1: there's on European cars. Right, there's actually a time and 225 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 1: laid down there. So yes, this deal is essential to have. Also, 226 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 1: I think to the European side that then therefore that 227 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: will happen too. So you can't really kick the can 228 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: down the roads without potentially causing major market volatility if 229 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 1: you disappoint on the outcome. So the G twenty summit, 230 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: it's just like Buenos Aires, like last year, they'll get 231 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 1: together and it will be really you know, vell televised 232 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 1: summit and we will watch the language and you may 233 00:11:56,880 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 1: may go there. I guess some you know, some sense 234 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,280 Speaker 1: of what they're doing. But then we know, like you know, 235 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: from there, we'll we'll think we'll get pretty contentious if 236 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 1: nothing happened. So this is indeed a difficult situation. Kick 237 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: the can here is negative for markets. Ben, So say 238 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:15,960 Speaker 1: we put you back in your old seat as a 239 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:20,080 Speaker 1: portfolio manager, and we say, Ben, here's ten billion. You 240 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 1: have discretion to buy anything you want, bitcoin, swybean stocks, bonds, anything. 241 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:26,960 Speaker 1: What what are you? What are you trading right now? 242 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: Are you just staying in cash? I mean it seems 243 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 1: almost like a paralyzing decision right now to try to 244 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: figure out how to play this. Yeah, that's there's one 245 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:36,599 Speaker 1: way you could approach you right as an investor, I 246 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 1: would not do it that way. You know you're not 247 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 1: want to sit all in cash? Uh, you know some 248 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: of it that's just to be optimistic. Um, you know, 249 00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 1: I think there's opportunities developing with one good thing about 250 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:49,400 Speaker 1: this is for investing at least. Is that. Yes, any 251 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,679 Speaker 1: kind of tension creates relative value, creates opportunity. Any tightening 252 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,960 Speaker 1: of financial conditions creates value. It was better in the 253 00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:58,320 Speaker 1: seminar it is now. But look at how the market 254 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 1: has started to rebound in a would happen on Monday 255 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:03,199 Speaker 1: because people looked at that, Hey there's a little bit 256 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:05,840 Speaker 1: too much till in frencial cognitions there's value a step in. 257 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: That's what I would do. Now, now to your question 258 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 1: what looks interesting, I still think there's really value local 259 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 1: emerging markets. I think that if the China situation gets 260 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 1: real pressure, that's where valuable will appear. I would be 261 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: willing to put money there Asian extrono Asian extent. Yeah, 262 00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:24,480 Speaker 1: I think so. I think that that that would be 263 00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 1: potentially an opportunity, the risk reward there, and I think 264 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: you know on the commodity side, you know, yeah, the 265 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 1: soybean market, well, actually that looks really under values, right 266 00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 1: you think about historically, Um, but where I would not 267 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 1: put my money And even though I've been in that situation, 268 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 1: I would not my money in bounds because I do 269 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:48,600 Speaker 1: think that yields are thinking in US are they're kind 270 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: of overvalue, they're kind of the fair value maybe maybe 271 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 1: too low. The economy is stronger, right if we're not 272 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:56,719 Speaker 1: the starting death fast yet, so I would not put 273 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:58,880 Speaker 1: my money. So going off of that, we heard the 274 00:13:58,880 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 1: likes of Goldman Sacks Mount this week tell Bloomberg Television 275 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: that yields should not be where they are in the tenure. 276 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 1: It's gone way too far away, too fast. Maybe two 277 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: point seven percent is more fair value. Does it seem 278 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 1: like this has just gotten ahead of itself a bit? 279 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 1: I think the there's there's value in the bonds in 280 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 1: the sense that if you are like a invest the 281 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: boat holding boats of stocks and bonds bounds as a 282 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 1: natural hatch for your stock portfolio. If you're bullish on 283 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:30,280 Speaker 1: the stock market, why not buying some bonds in case 284 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: past things happen. So there's natural demand on that. And secondly, 285 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:38,360 Speaker 1: in terms of the fast expectations, the risk for the 286 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 1: fair that is asymmetric. The bar for the fair to 287 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 1: raise rates is very high. For them to courage if 288 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 1: a recession do come, they have to cut all the 289 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,960 Speaker 1: way down to zero. So we're talking about fifty basis 290 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 1: points in terms of distributes. The distribution of the polability. 291 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 1: Then you come down to like twenty five basis points 292 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 1: pricing into the future fair pone futures market is not 293 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 1: that ridiculous. Um uh strange. Now, everybody loves to talk 294 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:24,760 Speaker 1: about Donald Trump in the Art of the Deal, Right, 295 00:15:25,080 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 1: we're lucky enough to get Ben's notes, and uh, he 296 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 1: tried to look at it from the other side. The 297 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 1: art of war by sun Zoo. It's the art of 298 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:39,680 Speaker 1: the deal versus the art of war. And I want 299 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 1: to quote a couple uh sun Zoo quotes from from 300 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 1: one of your notes. Quote, if your opponent is temperamental, 301 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: seek to irritate him. Check, pretend to be weak, that 302 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 1: they may grow arrogant Jack. And then you're right. That 303 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 1: sun Zoos principle is that all warfare is based on deception. 304 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: So engage people with what they expect because it settles 305 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while 306 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 1: you wait for the extraordinary moment in the midst of chaos. 307 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 1: There's also opportunity has been just pointed out. Now, Yuh, 308 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: I want to ask you, you know, I feel like 309 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 1: everyone in the US tries to get into the head 310 00:16:17,120 --> 00:16:19,880 Speaker 1: of the Chinese side of these negotiations, and whether you're 311 00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 1: quoting Sun Zoo or Confucius or Yeoman, I don't know who. 312 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 1: How much validity is is there to this? I I 313 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 1: you yourself on the blog of quoted some ancient Chinese proverbs. 314 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: So it walk us through the mindset on on the 315 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 1: other side, Should we be reading Confucius and sun Zoo 316 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 1: or is it is that silly? There's another person you 317 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 1: should read. Kea Mao. He wrote a famous speech during 318 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: the World War Two when Chinese finding against the Japanese invaders. 319 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: It's called paronged prolonged wall, basically saying that the Chinese 320 00:16:53,640 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 1: need to digging and to fight the fight. The whole 321 00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:02,680 Speaker 1: anti Chinese, anti Japanese a wall last eight years. UM. 322 00:17:02,760 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 1: So I think the Chinese. The timing is on the 323 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,600 Speaker 1: China side, because if you're comparing the U s E 324 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:10,440 Speaker 1: commy and the Chinese E comedy, Chinese had a bad 325 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:12,640 Speaker 1: year last year. Now they seem to hit the bottom 326 00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,880 Speaker 1: in the process of stabilizing and probably in your recovery. 327 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: The US, the fiscal stimulus is fading. Um. A lot 328 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 1: of people are expecting of slowing down this year or 329 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 1: next year, particularly and also the Chinese don't have the 330 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 1: election cycles the US does. Yeah, so the chump needs 331 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: something to show to his voters or to his base too, 332 00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 1: that he getting a China deal is a lot of 333 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,959 Speaker 1: people wanted, and this is the one thing he can 334 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 1: show to his voters, Right. I wonder what sold more, Sara, 335 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: the art of the deal or the art of war 336 00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 1: that I'd probably in the piece. So what do you 337 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 1: think is is President Trump gonna have to blink eventually 338 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 1: because of the upcoming election. I mean, it's very difficult 339 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 1: to sort of predict what he's gonna do. But where 340 00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 1: do you see it's sort of happened, what's going to happen. Yeah, 341 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:10,440 Speaker 1: So this is interesting might because if you watch Steve 342 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,639 Speaker 1: Bennon on a competing network, Sorry but it was on 343 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 1: a competing network. But that was a really important interview. 344 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 1: I actually recommended to listen to it because he says 345 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:25,200 Speaker 1: two things. One, he makes it really clear that Donald Trump, 346 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:27,840 Speaker 1: no matter what, he's just not gonna absolutely not going 347 00:18:27,880 --> 00:18:30,359 Speaker 1: to back down, right, He's actually gonna keep the terrorists on. 348 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: And I thought that was very convincing because he sat 349 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 1: with Trump in the same colnicolled War room, and you 350 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: called it that way the White House, the war room there. 351 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 1: And then the other part is about the long term 352 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 1: picture behind this. In the view of Trump, China's waging 353 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 1: an economic war against us and the rest of the world. 354 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,440 Speaker 1: And it's been going on for not just now, but 355 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 1: like twenty twenty years or so longer. So they have 356 00:18:56,400 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 1: built up during the twenty years a significant competitive vantage 357 00:19:00,760 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 1: in technology, believe or not. And so this is a 358 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:06,880 Speaker 1: real concern on the part not just here, actually in Europe. 359 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 1: So there's this hardlining in within the Trump administration that's 360 00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:14,840 Speaker 1: not just driven by just campaign rhetoric. It's driven by 361 00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 1: a long term view. I think, as much as you 362 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 1: may I agree with Bannon's auto ideas from an investing 363 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:23,239 Speaker 1: point of view, I took a Siers note of his 364 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:27,080 Speaker 1: what he was saying the subject. So he's going to 365 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 1: keep it on to to to the elections, and if 366 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 1: it does damage the economy, he's not necessarily going to 367 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 1: back down. That's I think what we can read from it. 368 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: I want to ask, I know, people moaning grown sometimes 369 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 1: when people in the finance world starts saying that good 370 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 1: news is bad news and bad news is good news, 371 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,920 Speaker 1: but bear with me for a second, because on Wednesday 372 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:50,880 Speaker 1: we got some pretty rough data out of China. Then 373 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,840 Speaker 1: US well right before US markets open, we got weak 374 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:58,399 Speaker 1: retail sales, we got weak industrial production data. And what 375 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:00,639 Speaker 1: I've been hearing is that people are looking at this 376 00:20:00,680 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 1: week data from both sides saying, one, it will force 377 00:20:04,600 --> 00:20:06,399 Speaker 1: an urgency out of the U S And China to 378 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: potentially come to a deal if we are actually seeing softer, 379 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:13,440 Speaker 1: weak a Reeker economic data, and then also that that 380 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,959 Speaker 1: could also potentially encourage a FED rate cut, and we 381 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,119 Speaker 1: did see the Fed funds futures market start to price 382 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 1: in further rate cuts. I mean, is this a real possibility? 383 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,720 Speaker 1: Is it true that bad news right now is good news? 384 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: I think if if you look at it that way, 385 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: then I would analyze it first from what happened in 386 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 1: the fourth quarter is lingering through that data, and then 387 00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 1: what we now went through the last the first day, 388 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:41,880 Speaker 1: last ten days since that infamous street from trumpon May five, 389 00:20:42,560 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 1: and a condition financial markets if tightened, that's impacting data 390 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:48,679 Speaker 1: right now and we'll see this coming out in June. 391 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 1: So the market is definitely again bone market is definitely 392 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 1: rational about that. The underlying data trends is weak and 393 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 1: has a risk to become a lot weaker, and that 394 00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:01,880 Speaker 1: would justify ray cut. Here's a difference over the fet 395 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: thinking I think is that and this what has to Georgia. 396 00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: Actually they coverage now they may face finance and stability 397 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 1: and it could cause a bubble, and the other hands, 398 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:14,160 Speaker 1: they faced the potential rishk of the economy sliding down. 399 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 1: So it's a real difficult trade off. I think the 400 00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,239 Speaker 1: Federals stay on the track of saying that leaves us 401 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 1: unchanged and the market discounts of ray cut, which maybe 402 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,439 Speaker 1: becomes eventually stimulative. And the housing data today showed them 403 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: it was actually some effect on the housing now from 404 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,439 Speaker 1: lower rates, from lower rance. My favorite part about the 405 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 1: tweets that restarted the the trade war sent the whole 406 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:35,880 Speaker 1: world scrambling to try to figure out what it meant. 407 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 1: They came right after Trump's complain about the Kentucky Derby winner. 408 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:41,280 Speaker 1: Did you notice that it was? It was? It was 409 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 1: pretty upsetic. So those stewards down in uh the Kentucky 410 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,679 Speaker 1: Derby must have been breathing us big side relief that 411 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 1: they that took the heat off of them a little bit. 412 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 1: But Sarah before we go. You know what we have 413 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 1: to do. I know what we have to do. It 414 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: is time for your favorite segment. The craziest thing I 415 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:00,879 Speaker 1: ever saw ad markets this week. We really need a 416 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 1: sound effect. I'm gonna work on that. I'm gonna get 417 00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 1: us a sound effect for this, Sara, Let's start with you. 418 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,960 Speaker 1: What do you got? All right? So I was going 419 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 1: to go with beyond Meat, just because I mean, the 420 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:13,240 Speaker 1: company is up more than two a I p O. 421 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:15,679 Speaker 1: And it's up a crazy amount again this week. But 422 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 1: beyond meat, they're the veggie burger company, right, yes, vegan 423 00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:23,880 Speaker 1: burger company, meet lists, meat company, however you think of it. Um, 424 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:26,040 Speaker 1: But basically they're off to a great start in the 425 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 1: public markets. However, hint, hint, Mike actually sent me a 426 00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 1: little bit of a hint I have. I have to 427 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:37,400 Speaker 1: give him credit because it's so great. Actually, Bob manution, Yes, 428 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: that is Stephen Minuan's father one out on a bid 429 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 1: over at Christie's for a stainless steel bunny rabbit. And 430 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 1: when I when I saw this thing, Okay, he did bid. 431 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:52,400 Speaker 1: He says that it was on the behalf of a client. 432 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: But when you look at this bunny rabbit, it looks 433 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,080 Speaker 1: like an inflated blue and I have to say, and 434 00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,920 Speaker 1: it actually is inflatable. Supposedly it's inflatable. Over it sold 435 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:06,360 Speaker 1: for nine one million dollars for a silver bunny. Well, 436 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 1: what's the spot price of silver? Maybe if you back 437 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:12,879 Speaker 1: out the ounces of silver price mathematical, its leased to 438 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 1: be a couple hundred dollars right there? Are you? She? 439 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 1: What do you got? What's the craziest thing you saw 440 00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: on markets? Could come on minutions, father beating on the thing. 441 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:26,360 Speaker 1: It's interesting that there's three passed in the Trump and administration. 442 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,280 Speaker 1: Wine is a minution which would plan the Wall Street 443 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:33,159 Speaker 1: and you have Laiheiser, which we depend on the Hawks 444 00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,959 Speaker 1: on the trade side. Trump is in the middle, so 445 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,199 Speaker 1: it's makes more complicated to read the strategy of the U. 446 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 1: S time US team. Um. But for my the strangest 447 00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 1: thing in the markets this week, UM, I got a 448 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 1: strategist making a song for the ball market, which I 449 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 1: saw was very cool. Is it his own tune or 450 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:56,439 Speaker 1: is it to the tune of a song? Listen to 451 00:23:56,440 --> 00:24:01,800 Speaker 1: this Ian Lincoln from BMO Capital Markets. Here we go, 452 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: Hello rarely, my old friend Bounds have come to his 453 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 1: again because Trump vision soft creeping left fist sees while 454 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 1: she was sleeping, and the vision that was planning in 455 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 1: Beijing still remains winding the bomb of trading very well. 456 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 1: I can do better in my mandream when I think 457 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:34,200 Speaker 1: karaoke after three shots, alright, let's do it next. That's 458 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,240 Speaker 1: a good, good idea for the next podcast. Say you 459 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:37,880 Speaker 1: were in the lead there, but I didn't. I didn't 460 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,159 Speaker 1: realize he was going to break in this song. That 461 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,639 Speaker 1: was pretty good, and that's a hard act to follow. 462 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 1: I if you want to pass, that's understandable. But what 463 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 1: did you say? Anything crazy in markets this week? Yeah? 464 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 1: Maybe the rebounds? Right? The rebounded markets? Is that crazy? 465 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,760 Speaker 1: We come in and it is like really risk off 466 00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 1: and people are like getting pretty like concerned and were rebound. 467 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,199 Speaker 1: How crazy he said? And on what right we is? 468 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 1: Really it's just just a little bit chatter again by 469 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,320 Speaker 1: idam Mi Nuchin through the World set Journal or indeed 470 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 1: unconfirmed by Trump by the way, on the six extension 471 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 1: of Auditation Europe, or just if some sort of other chatter. 472 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,200 Speaker 1: So I think that is a little crazy words crazy times. 473 00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,000 Speaker 1: We're living in crazy times. It's pretty easy to pack 474 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,440 Speaker 1: the craziest thing yes, all right, I'll give you mine quickly. Now, uh, 475 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 1: President Trump's companies famously went bankrupt. His casino companies. They 476 00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,400 Speaker 1: both had public stocks for a while. And now, Penn, 477 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,840 Speaker 1: you would assume those stocks are worthless, but you would 478 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 1: be wrong. There's a robust market for paper stock certificates 479 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 1: from old companies, and I went looking on one of 480 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,920 Speaker 1: the websites where they saw guess how much a paper 481 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 1: stock certificate for Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts is going for? Now, reminder, 482 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 1: this company went bankrupt in two thousand four How much 483 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 1: would you pay for Trump Hotel Casino resort paper stocks 484 00:25:56,320 --> 00:26:00,720 Speaker 1: certificate to dollars two dollars? Sara? Can you outpid that? 485 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,280 Speaker 1: I don't know if I would personally outbid it, but 486 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 1: I would say that it's much higher than that. Forty nine. 487 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 1: You can get Trump Entertainment Resources, which was the following 488 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 1: company when they merchant bankruptcy. Then that company went bankrupt 489 00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,160 Speaker 1: in two thousand and fourteen, so that's only two nine. 490 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,880 Speaker 1: You know, this validates my instinct as a quarter never 491 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 1: throw anything out. You know, I can imagine after this 492 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 1: bankruptcy you're ripping up your son of those days, Mike, 493 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,160 Speaker 1: I mean, some random paper in your house is going 494 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,920 Speaker 1: to be worth absolutely That's all the time we have 495 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,880 Speaker 1: today though, yes she Ben Emmons, thank you so much 496 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:49,879 Speaker 1: for doing What Goes Out. Will be back next week. 497 00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,439 Speaker 1: Until then, you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, 498 00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:56,640 Speaker 1: website and app, or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd 499 00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,199 Speaker 1: love it if you took the time to rate and 500 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,199 Speaker 1: review the show so more listeners can find us. And 501 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,160 Speaker 1: you can find us on Twitter. Follow me at at 502 00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:08,160 Speaker 1: Sara pant Sack, Mike is at Reaganonymous. Our guest, Ben 503 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:12,359 Speaker 1: Emmons is at Chief Economists six, and ye she is 504 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 1: she e Bloomberg. What Goes Up is produced by topur Foreheads. 505 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 1: The head of Bloomberg podcast is Francesco Levie. Thanks for listening, 506 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:21,280 Speaker 1: See you next time.