WEBVTT - India's Election Impacts Markets 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.560 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 0:00:15.600 --> 0:00:18.960 with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.160 the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.520 can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 0:00:26.520 --> 0:00:31.280 Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:34.320 mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:39.000 headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:42.920 or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:47.199 the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We welcome 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:50.239 all of you across America and around the world, and 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:54.200 particularly all of you listening in Indian now to without question, 0:00:54.520 --> 0:00:57.720 our Bloomberg Conversation of the day on the historic moment 0:00:58.360 --> 0:01:01.600 for the Indian people. Rugg Rojin is at Boot School. 0:01:01.640 --> 0:01:05.520 He's O School. His financial book on the Crisis of 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:10.080 seven eight won every award fault Lines. He is one 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:12.600 of our great financial professors and of course a former 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:17.000 head of a Central Bank of India. Far more importantly 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:21.200 is always Rogin out front. He has a book he 0:01:21.280 --> 0:01:24.840 is delivering Breaking the Mold on his India. It will 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:27.959 be a definitive two hundred and seventy pages. Look for 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:32.080 that from Princeton University Press. Shortly, Ragu, thank you so 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:34.759 much for sending me the PDA for the book. I'm 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:38.440 going to cut to the Chase Professor the final sentence 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:43.319 of your book. They cannot have any more excuses. What 0:01:43.400 --> 0:01:46.240 are the excuses Modi has now and what does he 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:49.280 need to move India to a new prosperity. 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:55.800 Well, we have an election. The results have been coming 0:01:55.840 --> 0:02:00.400 out and I think it's a splendid result because it 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:03.640 tells the government it needs to change course. The old 0:02:03.720 --> 0:02:08.360 course was unviable and we can talk about that. Of course, 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:11.000 markets seem to be disappointed. We can talk about that 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:15.520 also why markets are reacting negatively. But I think what 0:02:15.680 --> 0:02:19.400 is happening today is really, in the long run, really 0:02:19.440 --> 0:02:23.240 good for India because it forces India to choose a 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:25.920 different course from the one it has been on, a 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:31.160 course which has led to much wider unemployment and distress 0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:33.120 than needed in the country. 0:02:33.360 --> 0:02:36.680 Is this an election result that you see will bring 0:02:37.080 --> 0:02:42.000 the technocratic and elite South together with a more emotional 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:46.360 and historic North. Does it bring the polarity of India 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:49.720 together or do we have a more separate India in 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:51.080 twenty twenty six. 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:55.560 No, it's it's actually a win for democracy, and that's 0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:59.680 good for India because what democracy does is it allows 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:04.400 the different paths to essentially express themselves and to negotiate. 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:08.799 The problem earlier was India was trending towards a more 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:13.079 autocratic country, a country with one leader who was who 0:03:13.080 --> 0:03:17.160 are a larger than like image, and that unfortunately meant 0:03:17.360 --> 0:03:21.639 that the JP leadership wasn't listening, wasn't listening to the 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:25.840 economic news on the ground that people were actually suffering hardship, 0:03:26.320 --> 0:03:29.919 wasn't listening to the broader sense that you know, the 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:34.600 weaponization of various instruments of the government to put you know, 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:38.560 opposition party leaders in jail was simply not jelling and 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:41.120 it would have taken India down a course which was 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:43.839 ruinous in the longer run, maybe in the short run 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:47.280 benefiti of the big, big business groups. And that's why 0:03:47.320 --> 0:03:48.840 the market is reacting adversely. 0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:51.960 But I think this is good Rock and Rogen with 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:54.640 us with Musco Chicago. We welcome all of you on 0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:59.720 YouTube worldwide and particularly in South Asia. My colleague Damien Sassar, 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:01.760 Professor Rogin, Professor Rajen. 0:04:01.920 --> 0:04:06.160 You have mentioned the concept of an authoritarian democracy and 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:09.120 how India is moving into that sort of bucket. Talk 0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:11.760 to us a little bit about what this election means 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:14.960 for India and what it means for Numerendro Modi and 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:17.440 some of his policies on labor and whatnot. 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:22.039 So I think the key number to look at in 0:04:22.120 --> 0:04:27.039 this election is the bgp's own seats in Parliament. They 0:04:27.440 --> 0:04:31.679 almost surely will fall short of a majority, which means 0:04:31.720 --> 0:04:35.400 that they have to actually take the support of other 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:38.920 parties convince them to stay on board, which means they 0:04:39.000 --> 0:04:42.279 have to be much more sensitive to a broad based 0:04:42.760 --> 0:04:46.920 set of policies. Now, the PGP has done some very 0:04:46.920 --> 0:04:50.240 good things during its stint in power. For example, it 0:04:50.279 --> 0:04:54.080 has improved the investment in infrastructure and you can see 0:04:54.279 --> 0:04:59.839 Rhodes airports highways becoming much better in India. That's good. However, 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:03.680 what it has not articulated is a sensible policy for 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:08.200 broad based employment, and that almost surely requires policies on 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:11.120 human capital, how to skill up the workforce, how to 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:15.479 bring you know, industry together with universities and so on 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:19.680 to get people jobs. So the frustration with a BJP 0:05:19.800 --> 0:05:23.080 has been mass unemployment, which is, you know, in an 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:26.919 authority regime. They simply don't even acknowledge the fact that 0:05:27.080 --> 0:05:31.000 unemployment has been growing and is especially amongst the youth. 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:34.479 So what this election has done is essentially given them 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:37.920 a cold shower of reality that people are not happy 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:41.120 with your policies and that will force, you know, if 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:46.160 the BJP does come back to power after negotiating with allies, 0:05:46.600 --> 0:05:51.120 it will force policies which are broader, more inclusive, and 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:53.880 more sensitive to the needs of the people. That's a 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:54.280 good thing. 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:57.520 This morning an extended interview with Rock and Roger of 0:05:57.560 --> 0:06:01.560 the Buschool Chicago for those joining in America. A shock 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:05.120 a result or beginning of results, I should say, in 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:08.320 a Delhi election assumed to be dominant for mister Mody 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:12.240 and it was decidedly less so my colleague Damian Sassar. 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:13.800 Professor Roger, and I want to take you back to 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:17.440 your former role as director of research at the IMF. 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:20.960 You're familiar with workers' remittances, the role they play in India, 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:23.480 I mean the role they play globally. Eight hundred and 0:06:23.520 --> 0:06:26.479 sixty million of remittances in twenty twenty three, India is 0:06:26.520 --> 0:06:29.320 fifteen percent of that. Talk to us about what this 0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:33.000 election means for the diaspora outside of India about the 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:35.440 flows of capital into India. Is it's going to change 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:36.880 things at all? 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:40.359 Well, I think it's It can actually be good news 0:06:40.680 --> 0:06:43.960 both from the perspective. Remittance is will continue regardless of 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:46.560 who's in part. This is more you know, a lot 0:06:46.560 --> 0:06:49.480 of money coming from the Middle East, some from the 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:52.800 United States and Europe for people to their families, and 0:06:52.839 --> 0:06:55.479 that will continue that there's no reason why that would 0:06:55.839 --> 0:06:59.960 be disrupted. What is interesting, however, is foreign direct investment 0:07:00.440 --> 0:07:03.440 has been slowing into India over the last couple of years. 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:07.279 Some people argue that one of the reasons it has 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:11.720 been slowing is that, you know, people are worried about 0:07:12.400 --> 0:07:17.520 arbitrary government policy, to the extent that a more democratic 0:07:18.480 --> 0:07:23.400 dispensation at the center creates more stability about government policies, 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:30.600 especially it limits the weaponization of the tax authorities, of 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:35.680 the investigative authorities. Business actually will feel more comfortable, I hope, 0:07:35.800 --> 0:07:39.440 and I think it is quite possible that private investment, 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:42.000 which has also be on the down as well as 0:07:42.040 --> 0:07:45.440 foreign direct investment, could pick up slowly as it sees 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:48.920 policies emerge which are more comforting. 0:07:48.920 --> 0:07:52.000 Professor, within your new book, breaking the Mold, And I 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:54.760 guess the answer is for every central bank. The raging 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:58.560 vogue now is to pull climate change into some form 0:07:58.600 --> 0:08:03.840 of monetary policy mandate from whatever the nation is. Climate 0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:07.640 change is reality in India New Deli today, I believe 0:08:07.680 --> 0:08:10.320 the high of one hundred and eleven, one hundred and fourteen? 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:14.440 Fair nit, who's counting, Professor? What does India do and 0:08:14.480 --> 0:08:18.120 what does Modi do to immediately break the mold on 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:20.160 a climate change out of control? 0:08:21.040 --> 0:08:24.360 Well, this is precisely what the book is about. Can 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:27.960 India afford to become another China? Does the world have 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:31.720 room for another China? Becoming a manufacturing giant? And that 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:34.280 was the direction the more the government was trying to 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:39.320 go in offering massive subsidies to capital intensive manufacturing and 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:43.120 it you know the reality is that China's already there. 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:48.120 There is very little place for another manufacturing giant, especially 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:51.280 given the protectionism that's right in the world. But India 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:54.600 has a card up its leave. It actually is doing 0:08:54.679 --> 0:08:58.760 far better in services exports, which is much greener, much 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:03.679 more sustainable and You're seeing a huge growth in skilled 0:09:03.679 --> 0:09:08.559 services exported to the rest of them, whether it's telemedicine, consulting, 0:09:09.000 --> 0:09:12.679 chip design, lots of new areas opening up. India accounts 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:14.800 of five percent of global trade there. That's good. 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:19.000 How do you unify a nation with over twenty languages? 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:22.319 We in the United States are in a panic. I mean, 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:25.360 there's two languages in Chicago, the Cubs in a white Sox. 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:28.880 That's a different story. But ragu, how do you unify 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:34.320 towards a new India around twenty disparate languages? 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:39.920 Tom, It's more than that. It's twenty official languages, which 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:43.200 means they have enough people speaking it, but there are 0:09:43.240 --> 0:09:49.320 six hundred additional dialects and languages. It's a vast complicated country. 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:53.040 And the only way it's unified is through democracy, because 0:09:53.040 --> 0:09:58.840 democracy allows each each community a voice. You talked about 0:09:58.880 --> 0:10:02.280 twenty twenty six in in India, that's when the parliamentary 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:10.080 seats get reapportioned. When there will be a move to 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:13.120 have new seats in parliament for the more populous areas. 0:10:13.559 --> 0:10:16.680 That has to be done by consensus, and what I'm 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:20.600 so glad about is that it will be done by consensus. 0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:24.360 Because democracy has re established itself in India and they 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:28.600 will have to negotiate how that reapportionment helps. So India 0:10:28.720 --> 0:10:32.199 is more politically stable as a result of this election, 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:34.920 is also going to be a greater friend for the 0:10:34.960 --> 0:10:36.199 democracies of the world. 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:38.360 Yeah, Damien, I know one of your focuses is on 0:10:38.440 --> 0:10:40.880 India Russia, and of course it goes back to Neyhror's 0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:45.480 visit in nineteen fifty five to Russia and all the 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:50.120 responses through the sixties of James John Kenneth Galbray think 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:54.000 Kennedy trying to reaffirm an American presence from a distance. 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.400 That's absolutely right. And Professor Rajan, I'd really like to 0:10:56.440 --> 0:11:00.000 hear your opinion on the relationship between India and Russia. Obviously, 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.840 they've been a big consumer of Russian barrels of Russian oil, 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:04.960 and if you look at the tenure and the correlation 0:11:05.080 --> 0:11:08.800 between the Indian tenure and Brent crude, it is pretty strong. 0:11:08.840 --> 0:11:10.640 It has been since two thousand, So talk to us 0:11:10.640 --> 0:11:13.120 a little bit about that relationship India and Russia. 0:11:14.160 --> 0:11:18.920 Well, India sort of tilted towards Russia when the US 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:22.719 tilted away from India. India and the United States were 0:11:22.800 --> 0:11:26.880 quite friendly in the sixties, but then you know, as 0:11:27.679 --> 0:11:33.160 the Bangladesh situation developed, the US tilted away from India, 0:11:33.640 --> 0:11:36.280 and that's when Russia moved towards India. There was a 0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:40.320 strong friendship through the sixties, seventies and eighties. India buys 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:43.920 a lot of military hardware from Russia, so it has 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:49.400 been attended that has changed. India increasingly is buying from 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:52.640 the West, you know, from France, from the United States, 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:58.440 and that relationship is strengthening. So this is a work 0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:03.560 in process. India understands increasingly Russia is going to be 0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:08.560 dependent on China, which is unfortunately. At this point the 0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:11.479 relationship between India and China is one antagonist. 0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:15.360 Soago, I've got time for one more question. I have 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:18.319 to interrupt and be rude. If you are called upon 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:21.440 by mister Mody, will you serve the Indian people within 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:22.320 his new government. 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:27.800 Well, I think that's an unlikely prospect. You know, my 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:32.079 sort of inclination is whenever there's a government I can 0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:35.600 agree with, I'm happy to work with them. I've always 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:37.720 been open with advice. Let's see what happens. 0:12:38.200 --> 0:12:41.520 Rogert, thank you so much. We're really anticipating breaking the 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:45.439 mole two hundred and seventy pages from Princeton University pres 0:12:45.480 --> 0:12:49.880 look for that from Professor Rogin the Bout School, Chicago. 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:04.160 It is legendary at the University of Virginia. The largest 0:13:04.160 --> 0:13:07.840 birthday party ever in the history of the University of 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:11.120 Virginia was on the lawn for Kate Moore. It was 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:15.040 only eight nine, ten years ago. Joining us now this morning, 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:17.680 Kate Moore from black Rock and our global allocation team. 0:13:17.720 --> 0:13:19.840 Kate Moore, Happy birthday to you. 0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:23.719 Oh thanks Tom. I must say it's great to be 0:13:23.800 --> 0:13:24.520 twenty nine again. 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.040 We're we're all work as SaaS. The only one getting 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:31.480 away to the Kate Moore's Damien Sassa is cottenshiseled and 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:34.280 doing thirty six holes on the golf course. Kate Moore, 0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:36.719 I want you to measure the level of xuberance right now. 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:39.640 I see a lot of fancy technical studies that say 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:42.840 we're just not as exuberant is nineteen ninety nine. Do 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:43.439 you buy it? 0:13:44.480 --> 0:13:44.680 Yeah? 0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:46.920 I don't see a huge amount of exuberance. Actually, let's 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:50.640 just talk about exuberance. Over the course of twenty twenty four, right, 0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:53.719 we had gotten to a pretty excited place by the 0:13:53.880 --> 0:13:56.880 end of March. Obviously, stocks were putting up big gains. 0:13:57.440 --> 0:14:00.120 At people who had been skeptics around the resilience of 0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:02.640 you as economy had to throw in that towel. It 0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:06.760 seemed like everyone was afraid of being underweight or under risked. 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:09.640 And I think a lot of that has faded. You know, 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:11.880 we had a tougher April, and now we've had a 0:14:11.880 --> 0:14:15.120 lot of cross currents as companies have reported earnings, you know, 0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:18.760 some good news and some just okay news, and lots 0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:22.720 of unexpected sort of changes in the macro environment and 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:26.840 in the policy rate expectations. So I would say we're 0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:29.680 just in a kind of a lukewarm but not negative, 0:14:29.720 --> 0:14:31.320 but a lukewarm state at the moment. 0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:33.600 Happy birthday, Kate, and I agree with you. Things are 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.120 far more asymmetric. I mean they're not as asymmetric, the 0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:38.600 far more two sided. Given the movie we've seen since. 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:41.920 April, you're saying there's an asymmetry between thirty nine and 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:42.680 twenty nine. 0:14:44.640 --> 0:14:48.560 No asymmetry there whatsoever. So miss Moore King dollars flexing 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.120 its muscles yet again, right, I mean, let's be real here. 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:53.520 I mean, this is not a US exceptionalism move. This 0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:56.480 is a risk off move. Every single currency in G 0:14:56.600 --> 0:14:58.400 ten and EM with the exception of the pound, is 0:14:58.440 --> 0:15:01.360 now down versus the dollar to date. Talk to us 0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:03.000 about king dollar in the current environment. 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.200 Yeah, we've had a modest overweight to the dollar throughout 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:08.320 the course of this year. Not a huge bet, but 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:10.880 just kind of an expectation that US economy was going 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:13.160 to be stronger than some of our big trading partners 0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:15.680 and therefore kind of justified. But I have to say, 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:17.360 I think there is a little bit of a risk 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.240 off element to it, as you suggest, and there is 0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:24.520 also an understanding that the US economy is very resilient 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.400 and quite a lot of them both consumer although that's 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:29.480 you know people that did debate that, but the consumer 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:32.200 data and the corporate data is still really strong. So 0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:35.360 you know, I'm not a great currency forecaster, but I 0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:37.280 wouldn't bet against the dollar at least in the next 0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:37.840 few months. 0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:40.280 Just in folks, I really want to bring this to 0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:43.200 your attention. After Damien talks to Kate More of Blackrock, 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:45.520 we're thrilled to go to Delhi and we'll speak to 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:49.840 Derek Wallbank of Bloomberg News on the stunning election. Damien. 0:15:49.880 --> 0:15:51.840 Well, let's stay here, Kate. Let's stay with the US. 0:15:51.920 --> 0:15:54.160 Let's stay with US equities, right. I mean, we've had 0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:56.520 some pretty big moves in Telco and it year to date. 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:58.680 Do we lean into that. I mean, if we had 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:01.160 this risk off move off, things sort of settling in here, 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:03.920 I mean, is it you know, is this a buying opportunity? 0:16:04.760 --> 0:16:06.560 Yeah, Damien. One of the things I will say is 0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:09.720 I love that the leadership this year is really being 0:16:09.800 --> 0:16:12.360 driven by fundamentals. I mean, I know there are skeptics 0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:15.200 out there saying these this run can't continue. We know 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:18.200 the companies that are performing the best are those that 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:22.080 are putting up earnings during their earnings reporting, have affirmed 0:16:22.120 --> 0:16:26.440 guidance and oftentimes raised guidance and set higher expectations. These 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:29.400 are companies on a really solid path, in some cases, 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:32.800 on a secular path, separate from the business cycle. We're 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:34.920 not in a position where people are just kind of 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:38.640 hyping up or speculating on what may happen in the future. 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:42.040 This technology is here today. These companies are delivering revenues 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:45.200 and they're printing cash. So because of that, I would 0:16:45.200 --> 0:16:49.840 not fade the leadership of these big cap tech anytime soon. 0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:51.960 Yeah, But Kate, I mean value and quality are both 0:16:52.000 --> 0:16:54.000 down as a strategy here to date, right, I mean, 0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:55.680 I think it's been the low vol factor. I mean, 0:16:55.720 --> 0:16:57.640 I'm not going to get into all that because everybody 0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:00.440 calculates these industries a different way. But equity, I mean, 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:02.080 that's a four percent year today, and I mean it 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:04.119 seems to be there, seem to be you know, some 0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:05.480 technicals that work here now. 0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:07.760 Yeah, there are a lot of technicals. And actually we 0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:10.800 pay very close attention to positioning and sentiment to try 0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:13.760 and time our entry and exit into different positions. And 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:16.560 we've been using options pretty aggressively. Given the ball market, 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:18.800 you know, we've been given a lot of opportunities to 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:22.040 buy very cheap fall and to sell all when you 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:25.320 know it was a good opportunity quickly, Kate, we're. 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:28.359 Out of time. But what's the sentiment did you see 0:17:28.440 --> 0:17:32.160 among fancy people like at hedge funds on big tech? 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:35.240 Is there a big tech bet or have they pulled away? 0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:38.520 I think they're constructive for the most part. Of course, 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.040 it's going to depend on this segment. We haven't seen 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:43.640 huge shorting of the big names. In fact, no one 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:45.359 wants to really stand in front of that train. Whether 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:48.159 you're a mutual fund investor, a retail investor, or a 0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:50.800 hedge fund investor. I said, as long as these companies 0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:53.760 continue to have the fundamentals, Tom, I think it's going 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:56.280 to be an important part of your portfolio for the 0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:57.640 balance of twenty twenty four. 0:17:57.560 --> 0:18:00.159 Twenty nine. Candles Kate more Heavy Birthday, Thank thank you 0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:06.800 so much for joining us. Folks. We have Julie Norman 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:08.600 on just because of time in this vamp that we 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:10.840 just did in Stanley Cup hockey. I'm not going to 0:18:10.880 --> 0:18:15.560 harass her about Baltimore Orioles best team in baseball, but seriously, 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:19.040 this is the courage of Julie Norman of the University 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:22.280 of College London. She is, without question, one of the 0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:26.080 experts in the world on a difficult word, terrorism and 0:18:26.119 --> 0:18:29.399 she has taken on the challenge of a book on 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:34.119 the political history of Gaza. Professor Norman honor to have 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:36.960 you with us this morning. What is the political future 0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:39.359 of Gaza? 0:18:39.480 --> 0:18:42.040 Oh gosh, Tom, I think that's the question that is 0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:44.360 on everyone's mind right now, and it's certainly the one 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:47.760 that I think Biden is really trying to push Netnahu 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:51.040 on these days. You know, Biden put out this ceasefire 0:18:51.080 --> 0:18:55.080 plan ostensibly approved by Israel, but part of that was 0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:56.840 to get the ceasefire, and part of it was just 0:18:56.880 --> 0:18:59.960 to get Netanyahu's starting to articulate what a day after 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:01.600 might look like in Gaza. 0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:06.240 Well, okay, but importantly everybody's running for election and posturing 0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:11.520 for their domestic politics. Is the American relationship with Israel changed? 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:16.200 Whatever the future is oft in Yahoo or Prime Minister 0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:19.520 Sasa or whatever it is, is the future changed in 0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:21.880 American Israeli relations? 0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:25.520 You know, I think there's two ways to answer that. 0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:28.760 One is governmental relations with Israel. And I would say, 0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:33.199 at that level, whether it's president, whether it's Congress, we 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:37.320 still see very strong support for Israel pretty much across 0:19:37.359 --> 0:19:41.399 the board. Obviously some exceptions within Democratic Party representatives. I 0:19:41.400 --> 0:19:43.720 think where we're seeing the shift those with public opinion, 0:19:43.920 --> 0:19:48.040 obviously with young voters, young citizens in particular, and really 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:50.280 you know, on the more progressive wing, with the Democratic 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:53.600 Party more broadly now split essentially fifty to fifty on 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:57.399 leaning more sympathetic towards Palestinians and more sympathetic towards Israel. 0:19:57.440 --> 0:19:59.880 So I do think that trend is going to continue, 0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:02.399 and it's one that lawmakers will have to grapple with 0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:04.560 is you know, incoming years a bit more than they 0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:05.320 have in the past. 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:07.760 Doctor Norman, I'm curious to hear your thoughts of what's 0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:09.880 going on south the border. We had an election in Mexico, 0:20:11.000 --> 0:20:15.600 Claudie Shinbaum, Jewish former mayor for the city for Mexico City, 0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:19.280 at thirty percentage point. When is president, does that change 0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:22.239 Mexico's relationship with Israel at all? 0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:25.000 Yeah, it'll be interesting to see. You know, obviously very 0:20:25.040 --> 0:20:27.159 notable that she is not only the first woman, but 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:29.960 the first Jewish person to hold that office. But she 0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:33.040 has made statements before that you know, she doesn't agree 0:20:33.080 --> 0:20:36.120 with Zionism. I think she does identify in fact as 0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:38.840 like an anti Zionist. So she seems to be, at 0:20:38.920 --> 0:20:42.280 least up until this point, upholding what Mexico stance has 0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:45.880 been as being very pro Palestine, you know, showing their 0:20:46.680 --> 0:20:50.120 showing their dissatisfaction with Israeli policies. But again, she's been 0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:53.960 towing the line of her predecessor up until this point, 0:20:54.000 --> 0:20:55.520 and I think we're not really sure what many of 0:20:55.520 --> 0:20:58.359 her policies are going to be in general simply because 0:20:58.400 --> 0:21:01.200 she's been simply a kind of walking the party line, 0:21:01.200 --> 0:21:03.080 and once she's in office, we might see some changes. 0:21:03.200 --> 0:21:05.439 I'm getting that same feeling, doctor, I mean, just the 0:21:05.480 --> 0:21:08.320 uncertainty surrounding what her appointment means as president. But you know, 0:21:08.440 --> 0:21:10.680 let's shift gears. Let's talk about Ukraine. Let's talk about 0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:12.879 the I'MA funding that they received last week. I mean, 0:21:12.880 --> 0:21:15.159 that's good news, but there's another sort of summ and 0:21:15.280 --> 0:21:18.160 other fundraiser books with Biden talk to us about US 0:21:18.280 --> 0:21:20.560 Ukrainian relations. I mean, what do we expect there? 0:21:21.920 --> 0:21:23.879 Yeah, So, you know, I think it's a tough spot 0:21:23.920 --> 0:21:26.640 for Biden right now. Obviously he got through the big 0:21:26.680 --> 0:21:29.560 aid package, you know, two months ago. That was a 0:21:29.680 --> 0:21:31.800 very long time coming. I think that's going to be 0:21:31.840 --> 0:21:35.119 the last big infusion of military aid at least that 0:21:35.160 --> 0:21:38.600 we see going to the going to Ukraine anytime soon. 0:21:39.160 --> 0:21:41.520 And as the war goes on, I think Biden's getting 0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:43.600 to a point of just as is the what is 0:21:43.640 --> 0:21:45.840 the endgame here? What is all this going towards? And 0:21:45.880 --> 0:21:48.040 I think those conversations are starting to happen more. 0:21:48.600 --> 0:21:52.399 Professor Norman, do your claimed expertise and I'm not saying 0:21:52.400 --> 0:21:55.280 this to be Snyder snarky. I think it's a serious question. 0:21:56.200 --> 0:22:01.600 Is Hamas defeated or trending for defeated? How do you 0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:03.280 gauge that? How do you measure that? 0:22:04.600 --> 0:22:07.800 Yeah, so this has obviously been one of Israel's main objectives, 0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:11.240 and the US right now is assessing that Hamas has 0:22:11.280 --> 0:22:15.399 been sufficiently depleted in the sense that they couldn't carry 0:22:15.400 --> 0:22:18.679 out a massive military attack, they couldn't govern effectively, that 0:22:18.800 --> 0:22:21.400 sort of thing. At this point, I would just say, 0:22:21.480 --> 0:22:24.680 though Hamas is so many different actors all at once. 0:22:24.800 --> 0:22:28.880 They're a military operation, they are a political party, they're 0:22:28.880 --> 0:22:31.720 a social movement, and there's a lot of just everyday 0:22:31.760 --> 0:22:35.160 people who identify as Hamas supporters. So I don't think 0:22:35.200 --> 0:22:39.360 the movement itself is close to being wiped out. And honestly, 0:22:39.400 --> 0:22:41.480