1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:04,280 Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football season is here, 2 00:00:04,600 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: and there's no better place to get in on the 3 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: action than FanDuel. I love betting at FanDuel because they've 4 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:13,200 Speaker 1: got an app that's safe and easy to use. Plus 5 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 1: they have all the markets I'm looking to bet, like spreads, 6 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: life betting, player props, same game parlays and more. So. 7 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 1: Use promo code Favorites and download the FanDuel app today 8 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: to make every moment more this football season. You must 9 00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 1: be one and over in select states. Call one eight 10 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: hundred gambler or visit FanDuel dot com slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, 11 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia one eight hundred, next step 12 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,479 Speaker 1: or text next step to five three three four two 13 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:45,520 Speaker 1: in Arizona one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven 14 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: seven seven seven or visit c CpG dot org slash 15 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,639 Speaker 1: chat in Connecticut. One eight hundred nine with it in Indiana, 16 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 1: k S Gambling help dot com in Kansas one eight 17 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louise, Sianna one 18 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,119 Speaker 1: eight seven seven eight Hope n y or text Hope 19 00:01:04,120 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: and Why in New York Tennessee. Redline is one eight 20 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 1: hundred eight eight nine nine hundred five hundred in Wyoming, 21 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: or visit www. One eight hundred gambler dot net in 22 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 1: West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the 23 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mellman, Chief Content Officer 24 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: of the Action Network, and I am joined as I 25 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: am every single episode by my co host, my bff, 26 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: my companion, Michael Padre professional better Simon Hunter, my brother 27 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: Chad's buddy. We got a lot to discuss um on 28 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: this episode, we will narrow down our sort of leans 29 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 1: for Tuesday get down to a final five. Reminder, we 30 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: don't have to put our picks in for our contest 31 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: until Sunday, so this five is what we believe right now. 32 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: For full transparency, we have likely bet or will bet 33 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: all of these games, regardless whether or not they are 34 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,480 Speaker 1: final five depends on a lot of factors that happened 35 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 1: over the next forty hours. We will put our final 36 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: five in the Action Network app. Follow the phaves five 37 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:35,799 Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. For these final five, our 38 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: other picks and I have very specific one I want 39 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:42,679 Speaker 1: to discuss with you Foxhole from Tuesday. It was the 40 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: Saints plus three. I loved it. That line has moved. 41 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:49,080 Speaker 1: We got ahead of the number. Exact decision from me. 42 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: Jags plus four and a half. We got ahead of 43 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: the number. It's now four. Uh, big balls we're gonna 44 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 1: do today. Simon said, this is what I want to 45 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 1: talk to you about. Simon says the Simon says bet 46 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: was forty nine Ers minus nine and a half. That 47 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: numbers moved. I betted at nine and a half immediately 48 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: on the podcast, used fan to a quick slip through 49 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 1: the Action Network at it's now eight and a half. 50 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:20,799 Speaker 1: I don't know why. Injuries. I mean, Kiddle might be out, 51 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:22,920 Speaker 1: they might, they're they're they're likely to are down their 52 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:26,200 Speaker 1: number one. I saw that Jeff Wilson, I believe now 53 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 1: was through number one, and so he was the hottest 54 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:32,120 Speaker 1: pickup right in fantasy football this past weekend. So I 55 00:03:32,160 --> 00:03:33,800 Speaker 1: get it. That's why I'm not the biggest fan of 56 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: people betting early, especially if you're only betting one unit 57 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,600 Speaker 1: per bet. We did I don't know how many games 58 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 1: last week. I don't know a single game that actually 59 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 1: came down to the spread. Well, I guess Cleveland, Cleveland 60 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: and Carolina, right because Carolina opened it four and a half, 61 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: then they closed at whatever that was minus one and 62 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:52,360 Speaker 1: a half, So yeah, that mattered. But yeah, I'm all 63 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 1: about the best of the number. You know, I lived 64 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: for talking about half a point um, but yeah, that happens. 65 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 1: So yeah, it's definitely good on some numbers we got. 66 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: And then again we'll talk about these other games coming up. 67 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 1: A lot of movement, right, A lot of information coming out, 68 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 1: So there are been lines shifting by half a point 69 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,520 Speaker 1: or a point since just whatever the thirty six hours ago. Yeah, yeah, no, 70 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: it's great. Why we do the podcast twice a week, 71 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:17,280 Speaker 1: it's why we narrow it down, it's why we talk 72 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 1: about these things. It all matters. Every single nickel and 73 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,720 Speaker 1: dime adds up over the course of the season. We're 74 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: about long term r o I. It's not a boomer 75 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: plus cycle, right, Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. In 76 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 1: the long haul, you make right decisions, often enough on 77 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: the right sides, with the right numbers, squeeze out a 78 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: little bit of profit. Again. I try to stay off 79 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 1: social media because I already have so much noise in 80 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:44,160 Speaker 1: my life of other pros reached out to me. I 81 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: got Chad, I got other people the Action Network. That's enough. 82 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: I don't need to hear like everyone else's opinions on 83 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 1: games because it does screw with my head. Um, it 84 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: makes you question your own picks. The amount of parlays 85 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:56,520 Speaker 1: I saw sent to me from our picks of last 86 00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 1: week terrifying, truly horrifying. I feel like these people listen 87 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: to us for our picks, but not our actual advice. 88 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: Please guys, bet straight, just bet individually. Three and two 89 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: is the goal every week, is always the goal. That's 90 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: always what we're shooting for. I love it that you 91 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 1: guys all hit big. Seriously, it was madness how many 92 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:16,919 Speaker 1: parlays were sent to me. So if you're betting a 93 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,720 Speaker 1: hundred bucks on parlays, that means you should be betting 94 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: over a thousand dollars even more on your straight bets. 95 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:24,799 Speaker 1: So if that's if you're doing the same one on parlays, 96 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: you are in your straight bets. No bo, you're messing up. 97 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: You gotta switch it up. Do a hundred on your 98 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: straight bets, tem dollars on your parlays, just please, and again, 99 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: I only recommend going to three, like two to three 100 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:38,359 Speaker 1: times parlays. I don't ever go up to five, six, seven, 101 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 1: unless you're going with like five bucks, like really small'st amounts. 102 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:44,279 Speaker 1: So love love seeing everyone hit big, but like that 103 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,360 Speaker 1: was crazy. I could not believe how many people parley 104 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,160 Speaker 1: at our picks together and actually worked out for him. 105 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:51,880 Speaker 1: So awesome to see, but definitely little nerve wracking. Guy, 106 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:58,240 Speaker 1: I am fucking begging you. Don't engage. Don't take two seriously. 107 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:05,080 Speaker 1: Social media it is a wormhole of hate and dysfunction. 108 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:08,400 Speaker 1: In the broadest sense. There's a lot of right Backgroyd 109 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 1: block though. I mean, I'm I'm pretty good at right 110 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: just give it right backrd block and if they give 111 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 1: it back to me, they and they just are just 112 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 1: straight losers. I just blocked. But I'm with you, Chai. 113 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 1: I try not to. But it's our job. Like you 114 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:19,359 Speaker 1: want me to go in there and post stuff. I 115 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: gotta support their action employees. I gotta repost their stuff, 116 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: so stuff is gonna slip through. That's true. No, that 117 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 1: that's a fair point. But remember last year we said 118 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: to ourselves we were getting we were too in our heads, 119 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 1: we were reacting too much to what was happening in 120 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,479 Speaker 1: the outside world. I have been watching these lines a 121 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: week I feel great about what I'm seeing. I feel 122 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 1: great about the bets were making. Before we get to 123 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 1: all that, let's get to it. Shark calls hello, who's there, 124 00:06:51,760 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: I'm talking who's calling you this week? And who? What 125 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,919 Speaker 1: are they saying? Are they ripping? Are they supporting? The 126 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,560 Speaker 1: biggest talk with futures. And it's hilarious because we always 127 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 1: talked about out of reacting. The amount of pros I 128 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: talked to that, I think people should be putting money 129 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 1: on the Vikings, the Eagles or the Saints to when 130 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 1: the NFC is is crazy to me. They all think 131 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:21,520 Speaker 1: the Bucks are done. They think Green Bay has too 132 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: many issues that's gonna come up later in the season. 133 00:07:23,960 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: They don't trust the Rams, and they don't trust the 134 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 1: four Niners, which we're gonna get to coming up. I 135 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 1: just thought that was interesting. That's a lot to over 136 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 1: react to just one week. I can't do it. I mean, 137 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: the one that Dus standouts maybe the Buccaneers I've seen 138 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: now that God wins out, Mike Evans have popped up 139 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 1: injury reporting sort of Leonard four Nett, which is great 140 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: for our Saints. Bet Um. That was more interesting just 141 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: how much wide open the NFC is It wasn't even 142 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 1: just my friends too that I talked to. It was 143 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: like actual pros are like, no, it isn't like there's 144 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: huge market efficiency here that we should be investing in. 145 00:07:52,880 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 1: Like the NFC is wide open, which we knew coming 146 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 1: in right Me and you talked about that. You went 147 00:07:57,800 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 1: with a little bit of a wild card and your 148 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:01,920 Speaker 1: championship pick. I kind of went with the boy pick. 149 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 1: I just wanted the Bucks win in the NFC. But 150 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: it is wide open. The first game gotta call it 151 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 1: on was definitely that Simon says. Pick had a couple 152 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: of pros reach out to me. They think I'm overrating 153 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 1: Trey Lance and this four Niners team, and I'm underrating 154 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: the Seahawks team. And I said, based on what Geno 155 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 1: Smith had literally one good half, did you guys did 156 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 1: not see him in the second half? And did you 157 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: not see that defense and saw teaming up all those yards? 158 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 1: I get it. I would love to be down on 159 00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 1: the forty Niners and they're kind of been a a team, 160 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: a team everyone picked coming into the euar of being 161 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 1: a sleeper team, and that's always a little worrisome. But 162 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 1: I don't know that was a tsunami like justin Fields 163 00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:40,679 Speaker 1: to me, just made the plays to win that game. 164 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 1: Trey Lance, you can hit on him for that, right, 165 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:44,319 Speaker 1: he did not make the plays to put his team 166 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:46,480 Speaker 1: in a position to win. But how do I know 167 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 1: how good their run scheme is? How do I know 168 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: this offense is gonna function even defensively? What do what? What 169 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 1: What I really learn about the four Niners team? So 170 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:55,839 Speaker 1: to me, nothing's changed. I still had higher the high rating, 171 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: So I think I came on here and said I 172 00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:00,560 Speaker 1: would have taken this up to would ever was something 173 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 1: crazy like thirteen. I justin right because people really wearing 174 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: my ear and I was like, okay, I am overvaluing 175 00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: clearly as fort Niners team. But they all had this 176 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 1: game at seven and a half eight, which is crazy 177 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 1: to me, and like that's why they've come in with 178 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: the public on the Seahawks team. But I'm just not 179 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 1: drinking a coold So now I'm getting a little worried chat. 180 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: It's feeling like a Giants Tennessee game all over again. 181 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: But luckily there are actual pros on my side of this. 182 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:26,199 Speaker 1: But they're still they still didn't just anything. They're like 183 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 1: this four Nitis team this is what I felt they're 184 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: gonna be coming to the year. Taken nothing away from 185 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:31,760 Speaker 1: that Bears again, that was just a literal one off 186 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: tsunami freak game. Now we have trail Ants at home 187 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: playing a Seahawks team coming off a huge win. Um. 188 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,319 Speaker 1: I think I saw some crazy stat that the Four 189 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: Nights just haven't played well against the Seahawks team. Since 190 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: I believe it's well, I guess who came to the Seahawks, 191 00:09:48,440 --> 00:09:52,079 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, So maybe that was the reason why that's 192 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: the team was so good against them. I just maybe 193 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:57,559 Speaker 1: this won't be me and Chad's five because we have 194 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: other favorites fe like more. But I'm invested. I betted 195 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: down the eight and a half hit eight. I bet 196 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: it again. So it's like, what can I do? I 197 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 1: clearly have taken a standard on this Four Nners team. 198 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 1: But that was the first, definitely glaring call. The next 199 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 1: one with Carolina Pros aligned with us on Carolina. They 200 00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 1: loved that pick against the Giants. Just what we talked about, 201 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 1: the seesawness of the Giants, and we can talk about 202 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 1: that coming up. Next one was New England, which I 203 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,559 Speaker 1: am so skeptical of I don't really understand this, but 204 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: two really really smart groups hit this number, and they 205 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: hit it again, so they went up to two and 206 00:10:29,440 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 1: a half. And then another group I really respect came 207 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: in a hit actually Pittsburgh because again it's Tomlin at 208 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 1: home as a dog. I get what they're doing. Now. 209 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: It's like ping pong and we're going into I kind 210 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 1: of wanted to take New England regardless. Right, We've seen 211 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 1: the trend of these road teams back to back road starts. 212 00:10:44,640 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: I think was the action that we did it out chat. 213 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 1: It was a bed labs. But since and week two, 214 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:52,280 Speaker 1: teams that start the season on the road week one 215 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 1: and then they're on the on the road again for 216 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: week two, they're eight and oh a t s since 217 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: two thousand nineteen. My only issue with that stat is 218 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: COVID hap in the middle of that, and then the 219 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 1: following year was like half stadiums, right, people wearing masks still, 220 00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: so there really has not been a home build advantage 221 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 1: from two thousand one. So it's a little bit of 222 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 1: a skewed stat. But I can see why people were 223 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: kind of feeling New England in this position. Again, Pittsburgh 224 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: huge division will win five turnovers and they won by 225 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 1: three in overtime. It's just like not a lot to 226 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: love either on this Pittsburgh side. So I am interesting 227 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 1: how you feel about this game. Chat we'll talk about 228 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:27,320 Speaker 1: coming up, but I can tell you the pros love it. 229 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 1: They've taken a stand. They love that one and the 230 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: other one for us is gonna be the Saints every pro. 231 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,240 Speaker 1: I mean, we already made a foxhold. Bet I probably 232 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 1: would have made our big balls. Bet. Um, they love it. 233 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:39,839 Speaker 1: They they're all there with us. They're just like the 234 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: Saints team will just be undervalued again, is it? Dennis 235 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: Allen the head coach. Ye look at his record. If 236 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:48,199 Speaker 1: you're under the age of twenty five and you don't 237 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:50,439 Speaker 1: remember this guy, go look up his head coaching record. 238 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 1: I think it was literally eight and twenty seven or 239 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 1: something like that career. Okay, he was bad, but I'm 240 00:11:56,559 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 1: kind of thinking like the view of he clearly learned 241 00:11:58,880 --> 00:12:01,320 Speaker 1: from it. They came back. Wasn't just Jameis Winson. That's 242 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,439 Speaker 1: a whole mentality of a team there that came back 243 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,319 Speaker 1: against the Atlanta team. So yeah, I love love knowing 244 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: that I'm back on two big bets have already made 245 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:10,839 Speaker 1: because I was not gonna lie to you. I was 246 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: scared about that Carolina bet, just as Baker. But the 247 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 1: fact that so many professionals are back on that one, 248 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: it feels it's gonna be confident. And we've seen the 249 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:20,520 Speaker 1: number drop right, it's at two a lot of books. Now, Yeah, 250 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 1: you know who doesn't get scared me? I was never 251 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 1: scared about that that Panthers bet, I fully believe, never 252 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: nervous about the Saints. Bet. We're gonna talk about the 253 00:12:29,800 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: Paths because they were on our list of teams that 254 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 1: we're going to think about moving in. You know, we 255 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:39,560 Speaker 1: all know you're not scared of taking the Panthers, right. 256 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,199 Speaker 1: We we heard your whole skill during the preseason. I'm 257 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 1: not scared of that. I'm not scary the Panthers. We know. 258 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,719 Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be invalued all year. Pat, we're 259 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 1: gonna talk about I'm with you on the Niners. It's 260 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 1: interesting to me Niner, Seahawks Bears, Packers exact same situations. 261 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: You've got two teams that are heavily favored in Week 262 00:12:59,400 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 1: two that lost in Week one. That a lot of 263 00:13:02,880 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 1: that are public teams playing against teams that upset in 264 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:13,080 Speaker 1: week one, and those were wildly extenuating circumstances in which 265 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 1: both teams one. The Bears and the Seahawks in Week one, 266 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 1: we're both have heavy underdogs. Touchdown for the Bears, nearly 267 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 1: a touchdown for the Seahawks. Flukish things happen in the game, 268 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: a monsoon, multiple fumbles at the goal line. There is 269 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: a massive overreaction to what the Bears and the Seahawks are, 270 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 1: and a massive overreaction to what people think the forty 271 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 1: Niners and Packers no longer are. There's value in both. 272 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: I'm happy with the nine and a half. I will 273 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 1: hit the eight eight and a half on the Niners. 274 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 1: I I might take a little taste on the Packers. 275 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 1: I'm a little more skeptical, like I think the Niners 276 00:13:54,640 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 1: can be more of who they are this week because 277 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,719 Speaker 1: last week was so strange with the rain. I'm a 278 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 1: little worried about the Packers just with their weapons. So 279 00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 1: but I still love the Niners and nine and a half. 280 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,319 Speaker 1: I think we're exactly on the right side and people 281 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:10,559 Speaker 1: will be coming back and seeing how right we are. 282 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,320 Speaker 1: Monday morning, we definitely we talked about that with the Bears, 283 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 1: right we said the value is definitely gonna be Green Bay. 284 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: The problem is we're all based on this self models. 285 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: No model can project drops, Like if Aaron's guys are 286 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: dropping those balls, what are we gonna do? So yeah, 287 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 1: definitely scary, but I think Chad's kind of realizing the 288 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 1: trends and every little thing points to in this position. 289 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 1: Aaron's done well every time he's been doubted anything has happened, 290 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: especially with the Bears. Like especially with the Bears for 291 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 1: some reason, he just performs well against him. Like I 292 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 1: can't tell you how much money I've lost taking Bears 293 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 1: in this exact spot. So I would say probably about 294 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 1: three or four years ago, I just flipped and it 295 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: was just like I rarely would take the Bears. That 296 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 1: have to be it really would have to be. Every 297 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: one in the world was on Green Bay, right. That 298 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 1: was one of those where it's like the three or 299 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: four points are free points to the Bears team you 300 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 1: are not getting this year, this is this is peak Valley. 301 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: You're gonna get on the Bears. Bears coming off what 302 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:05,280 Speaker 1: was that a nine point win against a team that 303 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 1: got blown out in Green Bay. So I'm aligned with Chat. 304 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: It's like not gonna be one of our fives. But 305 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: it's again I hate taking these big favorites, but I 306 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 1: will be on Green Bay is a favorite. All right. Look, 307 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 1: we talked a little bit about the Saints. We talked 308 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:21,360 Speaker 1: about the Panthers. We love them when we recorded on Tuesday. 309 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 1: We still love them recording today. So right now I 310 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:29,480 Speaker 1: am saying Saints Panthers in our final five as of 311 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:31,680 Speaker 1: right now? Well, what do you think we should we make? 312 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 1: Do you think that Carolina takes big balls? We're taking 313 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: Baker on the road the game? You're eyeing up because 314 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: I'm trying to think it, like I'm looking at my 315 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 1: seat right here. It's I mean, New England might make 316 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: me feel the grossest, but like this, this Carolina one, 317 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 1: it's gross. You're you're literally gotta hold your nose and 318 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: you take this pick because it's like, well, the only 319 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: other one I would say, and we don't have to 320 00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 1: put it in the final five if we want to 321 00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 1: get too big balls. Jets j E t s Man 322 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,280 Speaker 1: because I've I bet the Jets and that never moved 323 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:00,320 Speaker 1: against me, Like I bet it. It's sick and it's 324 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,880 Speaker 1: at six and a half. I love the Jets in 325 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 1: this spot. I stole the stat from Chris Raban and 326 00:16:07,800 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: Stucky on the Action Network podcast because they had some 327 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: great stats about week two. Because week two is all 328 00:16:15,240 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: about overreaction, right, there's no data yet to make decisions. 329 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: So Week two dogs that didn't cover a week one 330 00:16:22,560 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 1: by seven or more the past twenty years against the 331 00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: spread the next week this week, that applies to the Jets, Cardinals, 332 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 1: and Cowboys. By the way, we also talked about the 333 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: Cowboys is a big balls I'm probably gonna play the Cowboys. 334 00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 1: Um that numbers come down as well as eight and 335 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 1: a half down to seven and a half. So there 336 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 1: you go, uh, double digit loss in week one, six 337 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: against the spread in Week two. The past twenty years, 338 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 1: every trend week two dogs of six or less off 339 00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: of a straight up loss against the spread. That fits 340 00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:00,640 Speaker 1: the Panthers, Jacks, Jets, and Cardinals. So like in every scenario, 341 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: the Jets are coming up as a bet. I think 342 00:17:02,880 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: the Jets would be a big boss who wants to bet? 343 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:08,439 Speaker 1: Now you're you're hunch fed on and again, this is 344 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 1: again a point I want to make the people about 345 00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 1: this show. Is our whole goal here is that six percent. 346 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,679 Speaker 1: More so, this is a long term bet you just 347 00:17:16,760 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 1: make blindly for the rest of your life every time 348 00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,680 Speaker 1: and you will turn their profit. Contest Wise, we don't 349 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: do that, right. We can't just throw it in because 350 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:25,880 Speaker 1: it's a six percent clip. We need to hit above 351 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 1: six percent to win our contest. So like that little 352 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,959 Speaker 1: edge there. I love it for long term betting. For us, 353 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 1: it doesn't apply like are it's different rules and contests 354 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 1: Again later in the season, people are here, how crazy 355 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 1: we get with strategy. We'll literally pick games because we're 356 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:40,439 Speaker 1: trying to catch games on people. So we're trying to 357 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: double up. We know a public's all over this in 358 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: the contest, we'll go to the other side, just try 359 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: to catch up. Even if we hate it, we gotta 360 00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:47,879 Speaker 1: do it. We'll never do that with our bets on 361 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 1: the show. We'll always tell you how what exactly what 362 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: I were betting where on when he's going and people 363 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 1: know we're on the jets. So I had the Jets 364 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 1: at six. Unfortunately, I didn't think it was gonna drop. 365 00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,160 Speaker 1: It did drop five and a half. A pro group 366 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: came in, took a position, or it could just be teasers, right. 367 00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 1: The public came in so heavy and they teased it down. 368 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: The books are just like, all right, forget, we'll go 369 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 1: up to six and a half. But it's up to 370 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,439 Speaker 1: six and a half, So to me, I'll take that 371 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 1: value again. If you've just been waiting, you might as 372 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 1: well wait a little longer, Like I could see this 373 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,879 Speaker 1: getting seven. Especially when the injuries come out for this 374 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:18,679 Speaker 1: Jets team, they might be down another guy in their 375 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:21,119 Speaker 1: offensive line. You might ably get that seven. So to 376 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: me that you could wait, but I'll grab a six 377 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 1: and a half just in case. Jets plus six and 378 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:31,800 Speaker 1: a half, big bald better the week. There. Here's another 379 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:33,919 Speaker 1: thing to think about with the Jets. The total on 380 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 1: this game is crazy, crazy low. All right, it's at forty. 381 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 1: So the bookmakers are basically saying to you when they're 382 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,879 Speaker 1: setting a spread that low, but said, I'm setting a 383 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 1: total that low, but setting a spread as high as 384 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,919 Speaker 1: it is, they're kind of begging you to take the 385 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 1: underdog in this spot because they expect it to be 386 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 1: a really low scoring game and it's hard to cover 387 00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: a big spread in a low scoring game, right, and 388 00:19:00,800 --> 00:19:03,520 Speaker 1: as circular, that's always favorites. I believe any any dog 389 00:19:03,600 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 1: over three points with a spread lower than forty it's 390 00:19:06,840 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 1: a crazy high cover rate, so one of those again 391 00:19:09,400 --> 00:19:11,160 Speaker 1: you know blindly play these things. But this is why 392 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,960 Speaker 1: you're always looking for trends. It's an edge over the book, right, 393 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: the books they know that people have these trends. The 394 00:19:16,560 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 1: general republic do not know these trends. So that's again 395 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:21,399 Speaker 1: a boring trend play. You don't need to build some 396 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 1: crazy math system like I built. You can just play 397 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 1: that trend and you will be profitable. It's there's a 398 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,399 Speaker 1: reason these guys play these numbers. Oh, I love that idea. 399 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:31,119 Speaker 1: It's like you see a total under forty, you're catching 400 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,640 Speaker 1: over six points. You can do the math like you're 401 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,120 Speaker 1: you're getting a lot of value in that position. So 402 00:19:36,359 --> 00:19:40,639 Speaker 1: I like that stat chet. Football season is underway, so 403 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 1: now is the perfect time to download fan Duel, America's 404 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: number one sports book because right now new customers getting 405 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,560 Speaker 1: no sweat first bet up to one thousand dollars. That's 406 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 1: free bets back. If your first bet doesn't win, just 407 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 1: sign up with promo code Favorites. 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They're at home, divisional home dog against 439 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: a cult team that the past six seven years I 440 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: forgot they haven't won in Jacksonville. We both believe the 441 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:03,119 Speaker 1: Jags are better than what they showed on Sunday in 442 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 1: that they just missed some place. They were a young 443 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,600 Speaker 1: team missing plays and we're probably amped. I don't think 444 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 1: that happens again. I just don't think the Cults are 445 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 1: good enough to be more than a few ago favorite 446 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:17,760 Speaker 1: on the road. Bang it. Jack's plus four and a 447 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,480 Speaker 1: half boom and I hate it. This is probably definitely 448 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: been our contest. We just have to play. And I 449 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,879 Speaker 1: can back up everything Chad just said, but it's a 450 00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:28,359 Speaker 1: simple fact of home divisional dog in week two. Not 451 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 1: that I want to put down the Courts and what 452 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 1: they've looked like, but they're just not a team that 453 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 1: deserves to be four points or four and a half 454 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,880 Speaker 1: points favorite in this position. Like the Jaguars, like Chad 455 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:38,399 Speaker 1: just talked about, there were really a player to a 456 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,600 Speaker 1: drop or two away from stealing that game from Washington. 457 00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,680 Speaker 1: So yeah, I love love to play. It's like there's again, 458 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 1: there's a couple of places this week where it's like again, 459 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:48,880 Speaker 1: I do all the work, and like then I talked 460 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,679 Speaker 1: to guys, I just knew right away this is one 461 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:52,120 Speaker 1: of those I just knew as soon as the number 462 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:53,640 Speaker 1: was gonna come out, we're gonna be on the side 463 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 1: unless the Jaguars were gonna win, because I kind of 464 00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: if the Jaguars are one Houston one, what's this spread, right, 465 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 1: maybe two one and a half to the Colts. I 466 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 1: still think they would be a favorite in this position, 467 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 1: just because they're wind total though, like the book still 468 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 1: based a lot of these early lines off wind totals, 469 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,399 Speaker 1: Like the fact that New England like moved up to 470 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:15,439 Speaker 1: whatever it was minus one against Pittsburgh. I think that 471 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,679 Speaker 1: was like a wind toll thing where it's like, you know, 472 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 1: the the Pittsburgh was seven and a half, they were 473 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:21,879 Speaker 1: eight eight and a half, so they gave them the 474 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,640 Speaker 1: edge there. It's same in this kind of position where 475 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: it's like Colts were what nine and a half, we 476 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:29,680 Speaker 1: were taking Jacks at six six and a half, So 477 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,480 Speaker 1: I get the respect coming in on the Colts. But um, 478 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,440 Speaker 1: again I like the Colts. Later in the year, Matt 479 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 1: Ryan gets comfortable being in a new offense on a 480 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,960 Speaker 1: new team, still in a great position to fade him, 481 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:42,960 Speaker 1: and I like what I saw for Trevor Lawrence. I've 482 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:46,000 Speaker 1: watched that game three times now. Um, I'm just obsessed 483 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 1: with the Jags team. Little worrisome some of Doug Peterson's 484 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: calls on offense. Um, it's kind of feels like there's 485 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 1: a little bit of training wheels on there with Trevor Lawrence. 486 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 1: But this week went in a new scheme. I'm not 487 00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:58,479 Speaker 1: trying to have to hold too much to it, but 488 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,720 Speaker 1: definitely something keeping on my eye on. It's a very 489 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 1: basic he's running very basic offense and a little worrisome 490 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,159 Speaker 1: as something that's having the invested the Jaguars were invested 491 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:12,400 Speaker 1: in the Jaguars this week. Right now, we are invested in, uh, 492 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:18,080 Speaker 1: the teams from my favorite divisions in football, the a 493 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: f C South and the NFC South Jack's plus four 494 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 1: and a half, Saints plus three, Panthers plus two and 495 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 1: a half. Uh. The other team on our list that 496 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:35,680 Speaker 1: we loved forty Niners minus nine and a half. We've 497 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 1: talked about the Pats. I love the Niners. In this spot, 498 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,040 Speaker 1: I'm starting to feel like I like the Pats a 499 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:46,359 Speaker 1: little bit more. Yeah, I just I don't know what 500 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 1: the hell to do with it. Like all these other 501 00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 1: pros love you too, and like I get their position 502 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 1: they're coming from. There's a lot of trends that favorite 503 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 1: what they're saying too. But I just feel like the 504 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: Patriots might be broken. Like that was is horrible. That 505 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 1: Miami game was truly horrible. Miami even played that well 506 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 1: and they kind of dominated him, Like Miami could have 507 00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:09,280 Speaker 1: easily beat them by thirty points. I mean, Mac had 508 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,960 Speaker 1: no time, His receivers were not getting open. Their scheme 509 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:15,400 Speaker 1: was just very very born. And we already talked about 510 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 1: this as Patricia and Judge, two guys we do not 511 00:25:18,359 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 1: respect or hold at any high level of like, yeah, 512 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,679 Speaker 1: these guys know what they're doing coaching an offense. We 513 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,880 Speaker 1: know they've never coached offense before, so I'm scared where 514 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,840 Speaker 1: It's like a year ago, even I would have been 515 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,880 Speaker 1: all in on this position, like this is exactly where 516 00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 1: you take the Patriots. I don't really know what to 517 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:36,800 Speaker 1: do with it. Like I feel like it's gonna eventually 518 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 1: find our way in just because guys I highly respect 519 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 1: are telling me to take the Patriots. Um, but I'll 520 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,639 Speaker 1: tell you the favorite. I love chat like my number 521 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,919 Speaker 1: one favorite favorite this week, it's gotta be the Ravens. 522 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 1: Like I just I keep looking at this number, and 523 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 1: I just keep thinking about all the everything I'm hearing 524 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:57,439 Speaker 1: about this Miami team. Man, I love the Ravens in 525 00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,560 Speaker 1: this spot. I mean, a rookie head coach on the 526 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:03,600 Speaker 1: road and first first game after a win. It's just 527 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,680 Speaker 1: lining up really nice and a bunch of different little factors. 528 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 1: The biggest one is watching too. He's not comfortable on 529 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:12,399 Speaker 1: that new offense. They left a lot of places in 530 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 1: the field of Patriots. I do not see the Ravens 531 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,680 Speaker 1: making the same mistakes. Ravens offense look awful last week 532 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,000 Speaker 1: in the first half. They really figured out the second 533 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,479 Speaker 1: half like Lamar look comfortable, kind of had this thing 534 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 1: going to me. This is a perfect spot to take 535 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,159 Speaker 1: this Ravens team. The fact that it's still under four. 536 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:29,160 Speaker 1: I know we talked about hoping we'll get the three. 537 00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,000 Speaker 1: I don't think the Pros will let this number get 538 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:32,959 Speaker 1: the three like they there's kind of a stance here. 539 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:34,639 Speaker 1: We've seen the money, the tickets kind of come in 540 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: on Miami a little bit. It just just feels a 541 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,400 Speaker 1: great time to take a Ravens team that they are 542 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 1: established or not, this up and coming team that we 543 00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:47,000 Speaker 1: think Miami is. Look, I love the Ravens here. I 544 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 1: only haven't bet then because I've been waiting for them 545 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,919 Speaker 1: to get to the three, which is fair, you know, 546 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: But if you don't think it's going to get there, 547 00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 1: I don't then you know what I'm gonna do? You 548 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,680 Speaker 1: know what, you don't have to though you can wait. 549 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 1: I just the only reason I'm taking the three is 550 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 1: because I just don't want to get it. I don't 551 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 1: want it to go back to four, Like I just 552 00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:09,760 Speaker 1: want to be safe. Yeah, that's kind of how I feel. 553 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:14,560 Speaker 1: But like again, I do still love the four nine ers. 554 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,720 Speaker 1: It's just do I feel in my in my core 555 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 1: what exactly I know I'm getting from the Ravens. I 556 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,879 Speaker 1: really do like the Ravens. Just feel like I know 557 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 1: who they are. Um Lamar, I know exactly he is. 558 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 1: He's one of the best players in the regular season. 559 00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:30,960 Speaker 1: The guy kind of lets it, lets it, let's choke 560 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: a little bit in the playoffs. But in Week two, 561 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 1: in this position with this team healthy, Um, I think 562 00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:38,920 Speaker 1: Stanley is supposed to be back for their offensive line. 563 00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 1: It's just it's a nice position to take a Baltimore 564 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,120 Speaker 1: Ravens team that I don't know. They're just not really 565 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:45,920 Speaker 1: being talked about as much. I think they should be, 566 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:47,760 Speaker 1: just because they beat the Jets team where the Miami 567 00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 1: team was just getting so much hype, just because they 568 00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 1: look so good against what could be a bad Patriots scene. 569 00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:58,199 Speaker 1: I think you're right. Uh, let's put let's put the 570 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:02,800 Speaker 1: Ravens in. Do we take the forty Niners out? Yeah? 571 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,680 Speaker 1: I switched them out, all right, Ravens are in, uh too. 572 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 1: Other games that we've talked right now, we have Jags, 573 00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:14,359 Speaker 1: Saints Panthers, Ravens minus three and a half, so we 574 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:19,400 Speaker 1: have four Uh, Niners are out. I got like three 575 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,119 Speaker 1: games too that I'm like fighting not put in the 576 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:25,480 Speaker 1: last spot. All right, Well, we have listed on Tuesday 577 00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:29,919 Speaker 1: Titans plus ten, Eagles minus one and a half them, 578 00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: but it's it's tough. Well before we do that anything else, 579 00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:40,840 Speaker 1: because we had one other game that we kind of targeted, 580 00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 1: which was the Raiders and the Cardinals. No, I mean, 581 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 1: I still I like the Raiders play, but there's just 582 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 1: other other games I like more like Again, it's that's 583 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 1: the hardest thing. It's like, I love a lot of games, 584 00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 1: but as a pro, I try to get it down 585 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: at two sides and one total or two totals on 586 00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 1: one side. Honestly, when I'm making like substantial bets in 587 00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:04,640 Speaker 1: these early weeks here, how about everything. But I'm saying, 588 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 1: like I'm putting a lot on certain things. Um to me, 589 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 1: the Raiders, I like that number, but I don't know 590 00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 1: if it's gonna make my top ten of my biggest bets. 591 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 1: So it's just it's just not what I'm heavy on. 592 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:15,640 Speaker 1: Just because I think you lost the best number. It 593 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 1: was two and a half, three and a half all 594 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:19,400 Speaker 1: up to five and a half. It's kind of a 595 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 1: weird dead number. So you said you had three. I 596 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 1: just mentioned two of them. I mentioned Titans plus ten, 597 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 1: Eagles minus one and a half? Who am I missing 598 00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 1: for games? We didn't talk about that. I like, yeah, 599 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 1: Hotlanta starting to really drink the kool aid here. I 600 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 1: just watching their scheme. I love the run scheme they 601 00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 1: have and it's just a fun, fun team. Where the Rams, 602 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,320 Speaker 1: I just don't think they're they should be catching ten 603 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 1: and a half against many teams, especially at Atlanta, which 604 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 1: I just don't see Atlanta being in many games year. 605 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,080 Speaker 1: They're just gonna be one of these teams, kind of 606 00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:55,479 Speaker 1: like the Lions last year. I can just see them 607 00:29:55,480 --> 00:29:58,680 Speaker 1: always being in these close games. Um, it's all about 608 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 1: what number we get in the contest. Again, if it's 609 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 1: nine and a half, I would not do it. But 610 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,240 Speaker 1: if it was ten and a half, still like close 611 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 1: to eleven. I like that number a lot for this 612 00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,320 Speaker 1: Atlanta team. UM. I guess the only pauses the trends 613 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,560 Speaker 1: of McVeigh extended rest after a loss. It's been good 614 00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:17,120 Speaker 1: to him. But I just love this Atlanta run team. 615 00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 1: Like everything about the style of offense they play. They slow. 616 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:24,240 Speaker 1: They're gonna slow games down against the team like Stafford 617 00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,840 Speaker 1: and an offensive like to pass it, it's gonna be 618 00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:28,600 Speaker 1: hard to get in a rhythm against that kind of style. 619 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:32,040 Speaker 1: So we saw that with New Orleans, right, Atlanta controlled 620 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 1: that whole game and also in the fourth quarter once 621 00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:35,520 Speaker 1: Winston got into a little bit of rhythm, he put 622 00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 1: up sixteen straight points. So to me, like, that's that's 623 00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 1: the negative of it, where it's like if they go 624 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,520 Speaker 1: three and out, their their defense could be in trouble. 625 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,880 Speaker 1: But uh, because again Atlanta's defense is definitely a weakness. 626 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 1: But to me, it's a lot of points to be 627 00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:51,080 Speaker 1: give into a RAMS team that they just don't look right. 628 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:53,120 Speaker 1: And again I don't take too much of just one game, 629 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,880 Speaker 1: but it wasn't just like one two or little a 630 00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 1: couple of mistakes, like a lot of issues on their 631 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 1: offensive line, got issues a Stafford and what he was doing, 632 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,080 Speaker 1: and their defensive side of the ball, they just they're there. 633 00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:07,600 Speaker 1: They did not look prepared like on the defensive side, 634 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,840 Speaker 1: which is a worry for me. So, yeah, that's too 635 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,400 Speaker 1: many points to be getting a given this Rams team. 636 00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:19,400 Speaker 1: By the way, Uh of the money coming in on 637 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 1: the Falcons right now, jeez, hopefully that's prone one because 638 00:31:23,600 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 1: that's scary. I guess they are a little bit of 639 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:28,840 Speaker 1: a public dog, but all these all these big dogs 640 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 1: are public dogs because Atlantic covered, Houston covered, Seahawks covered, 641 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:35,800 Speaker 1: and who am I fregatting Houston covered. So it's like 642 00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,960 Speaker 1: all four of these big underdogs they burned people last week. 643 00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:40,920 Speaker 1: There were Joe public and been on all these favorites. 644 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,239 Speaker 1: So now they're thinking, Okay, these dogs I lost were 645 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 1: now all getting ten or more points, nine or more points. 646 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,600 Speaker 1: I might as well just take them. So again it's 647 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 1: a big overreaction week. I'm not normally on a bunch 648 00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,920 Speaker 1: of double digit favorites, but like I like Green Bay, 649 00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:58,120 Speaker 1: I like San France, and I kind of like Broncos. 650 00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,960 Speaker 1: So it's it's a rare, rare from merom on the 651 00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:05,600 Speaker 1: big favorites. What do we think of? All right, So 652 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:09,080 Speaker 1: let's put a pin in the Falcons right now, because 653 00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 1: we also had the Titans plus ten against Buffalo and 654 00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 1: we had the Eagles minus one and a half. I 655 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 1: kind of love the Eagles right now. Yeah, And I 656 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,120 Speaker 1: think someone said it to me. I don't know if 657 00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 1: how accurate is. I probably should have reached out to Evan, 658 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:26,720 Speaker 1: but Kirk Cousins and Monday Night Games is three and 659 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,600 Speaker 1: nine at s, which sounds about right right if you 660 00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:31,360 Speaker 1: think about his career and all the jokes we make 661 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,920 Speaker 1: at his expense. Um. Another big thing for me was 662 00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 1: Green Bay had their left tackle on right tickle out 663 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 1: of that game and they had no good receivers. Now 664 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,800 Speaker 1: the Vikings defense is going against arguably the best offensive 665 00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 1: line of football A J. Brown and Davante Smith. Jalen 666 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 1: Hurts has been great out was on the top quarterbacks 667 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,080 Speaker 1: in football since he's become a starter. Like again, I 668 00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:58,080 Speaker 1: don't trust him sometimes, like his reads are terrible. His legs, though, 669 00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,200 Speaker 1: are such a weapon. Only only quarterback to run for 670 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,440 Speaker 1: more first downs last year or year last year and 671 00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 1: a half is Lamar Jackson. We know how good Lamar. 672 00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 1: So I love the upside of this Egos team. I 673 00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 1: think the public is kind of figuring out where. Again, 674 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 1: it's interesting hearing from pros that they just we talked 675 00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:17,320 Speaker 1: about before the season. They were down this Egos team. 676 00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 1: They bet they're underwin total, which I didn't really get. 677 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,520 Speaker 1: They just didn't believe in Hurts. They didn't believe this defense. 678 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 1: So the Eagles defense got great. Was the worst tackling 679 00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:29,080 Speaker 1: team in Week one thirties they're the thirty second team. 680 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,720 Speaker 1: They literally had the most mis tackles, the most broken 681 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 1: tackles on again on their defense. That's huge. They addressed 682 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 1: it this week. They've been talking about all a week. 683 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:38,920 Speaker 1: I know that's something you can't just change in a week, 684 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:41,680 Speaker 1: but that's great. They won a game with a glaring 685 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 1: weakness and how they can improve on it this week 686 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 1: leading up to a Vikings game in prime time. So 687 00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 1: I get why these pros I've talked to they don't 688 00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,280 Speaker 1: like the Egos defense and they think this is gonna 689 00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:52,400 Speaker 1: be a shootout, and then the shootout they favored this 690 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,760 Speaker 1: Vikings team. But I just again, I just think this 691 00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:57,440 Speaker 1: Eagos team is just being overlooked in a bunch of 692 00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,480 Speaker 1: different aspects. So I still love it. That's the hardest point. 693 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,080 Speaker 1: It's like, I love Tennessee too. If we're gonna do 694 00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:04,760 Speaker 1: on Monday night game, we can't do too. We have 695 00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,360 Speaker 1: to pick one and kind of like the bullet Well, look, 696 00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,000 Speaker 1: I think it's to me. I get what you're saying 697 00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:17,280 Speaker 1: about the Falcons. Yeah, I like these two more than Falcons. Honestly, 698 00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:19,520 Speaker 1: I like these two more than the Falcons, and I 699 00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:23,680 Speaker 1: think I lean Eagles I'm getting a very short home 700 00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:28,479 Speaker 1: favorite on a Monday night game, their opening game at home, 701 00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:36,520 Speaker 1: and it to me, I love this team. I think 702 00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:39,919 Speaker 1: they have such a higher ceiling than what they're even 703 00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:43,719 Speaker 1: being given credit for right now. And I'm not a 704 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 1: believer in Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, yet I think 705 00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 1: they did it against a green Bay team that is 706 00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 1: severely deficient. They're just getting too much credit for it. 707 00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:55,520 Speaker 1: And they left. We talked about lean plays in the field. 708 00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:57,120 Speaker 1: Green Bay left a lot of plays in the field. 709 00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,120 Speaker 1: That's a lot of plays in the field. And and 710 00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,600 Speaker 1: I think that some people will just look at the 711 00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,880 Speaker 1: final score of the Eagles game and see that it 712 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:09,080 Speaker 1: was thirty five and not realize how thoroughly they beat 713 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,239 Speaker 1: the lines. And so I don't know that they're getting 714 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,160 Speaker 1: enough credit for the win. And I think the number 715 00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:18,160 Speaker 1: is a little depressed because of that. I think it's 716 00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:20,680 Speaker 1: the Eagles minus one and a half and like and again, 717 00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:22,719 Speaker 1: anything under three to me is a good number. The 718 00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 1: fact you're getting one and a half now is even better. Um. 719 00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:28,880 Speaker 1: It's just I'm honestly surprised, though the love by the 720 00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:32,040 Speaker 1: pros and the Vikings, because this has been a notorious 721 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,520 Speaker 1: spot for almost all pros that fade the Vikings like 722 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:36,040 Speaker 1: you just this is when you kind of get off. 723 00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,000 Speaker 1: A team has a huge divisional win at home. Now 724 00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:40,600 Speaker 1: they're going on the road in a primetime game with 725 00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,959 Speaker 1: a rookie head coach. Just how happens it's Kirk Cousins 726 00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:45,600 Speaker 1: as well. I don't know, it's just interesting that pros 727 00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,120 Speaker 1: are actually buying into this Viking type where I kind 728 00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:49,480 Speaker 1: of am too. Like we talked about, I don't I 729 00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,120 Speaker 1: don't hate the idea of bet in their Super Bowl 730 00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 1: future because the NFC is so down right now, but man, 731 00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 1: that's gonna be a weird feeling come January. And it's 732 00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,080 Speaker 1: like I'm sitting on a Kirk Cousins ticket. He's playing 733 00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,719 Speaker 1: against Tom Brady and what we're old? Am I really 734 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,160 Speaker 1: feeling confident in that game? Like that's the whole thing 735 00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 1: about doing these kind of future bets. So yeah, for 736 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,040 Speaker 1: a week two as you sit here chat, I love 737 00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,440 Speaker 1: the Eagles in this position. Um, I was hoping you're 738 00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,040 Speaker 1: gonna talk to me the Titans just because I'm such 739 00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,480 Speaker 1: a homer. But when it comes to gamlet, I'm not 740 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,440 Speaker 1: like I'm all four fading the Eagles because I win 741 00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:20,239 Speaker 1: both worlds. Like last week we hit the cover on 742 00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,399 Speaker 1: Detroit and my Eagles and the Eagles one, like, yeah, 743 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:24,040 Speaker 1: it sucked my money line and come through on the lines, 744 00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:26,000 Speaker 1: but it's the best of both worlds. So to me, 745 00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,319 Speaker 1: I'd be much more happy to take the vikings here. 746 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:30,480 Speaker 1: But it's just a bad number and the public is 747 00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,560 Speaker 1: making it so they bet this down our final five 748 00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,560 Speaker 1: as of right now, Jack's plus four and a half, 749 00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:40,280 Speaker 1: Saints plus three, Panthers plus two and a half, two favorites, 750 00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,520 Speaker 1: Ravens minus three and a half, Eagles minus one and 751 00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,480 Speaker 1: a half, only one road team, which is a little scary, 752 00:36:45,520 --> 00:36:48,279 Speaker 1: but it doesn't really matter knocking on the door. We're 753 00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:53,760 Speaker 1: betting numbers. We're not betting. We're not trying to find balance. Okay, 754 00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:57,200 Speaker 1: I love balance, Yeah, but these are each these are 755 00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:03,840 Speaker 1: these are disconnected decisions. Each one we are believing in 756 00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,040 Speaker 1: in and of itself. We do not have to find 757 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,680 Speaker 1: the perfect sort of formula here. We just need to 758 00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:11,920 Speaker 1: find the five games we feel great about, and with 759 00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:13,879 Speaker 1: one wins, it doesn't have an impact on the other 760 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:17,200 Speaker 1: one winning or losing. These are five picks. I've just 761 00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:20,480 Speaker 1: laid them out to review for everybody. Simon says, for 762 00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:22,400 Speaker 1: the Niners minus nine and a half, we chose that 763 00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:24,840 Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Still like it, both of us like a 764 00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:29,960 Speaker 1: foxhol Saints plus three exact decision. I chose that on Tuesday, 765 00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:32,879 Speaker 1: Jack's plus four and a half survivor. For those who 766 00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:36,320 Speaker 1: had to choose block on Thursday, we chose the Bengals. 767 00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:39,359 Speaker 1: I still lean Bengals. I like the Broncos to well. Well. 768 00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:40,719 Speaker 1: I had a couple of people bring up to me 769 00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,480 Speaker 1: that that's probably the good choice next week Bengals there 770 00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:45,839 Speaker 1: at the Jets, which I said, it's fair like we're 771 00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:48,400 Speaker 1: doing the look ahead. Unfortunately, my guy travised and put 772 00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,880 Speaker 1: out his articles. I couldn't cheat. We do feel good 773 00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:52,719 Speaker 1: about green Bay or the n is one of these 774 00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,640 Speaker 1: big favorites I saw. The Bengals was nice because they 775 00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,239 Speaker 1: aren't such a tough division. But that's a good point 776 00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,680 Speaker 1: by people saying they do play the Jets next week. Again, 777 00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:01,960 Speaker 1: next week is tough. I like, I really picked up 778 00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,640 Speaker 1: look aheadlines while already working on one week, but that 779 00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:07,279 Speaker 1: is one of the ones that stand out kind of 780 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:09,360 Speaker 1: the the Vikings play the lines, which is another go 781 00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,000 Speaker 1: one next week, so obviously you could do that, but 782 00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:14,720 Speaker 1: for this week, if you're already locked the Bengals again, 783 00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:17,120 Speaker 1: don't hate it, but what do you think about? Would 784 00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,520 Speaker 1: you do Green Bay or um the four Niners over 785 00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,960 Speaker 1: the Bengals and save them for next week because only 786 00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:23,840 Speaker 1: we only have one left. We can't do two again, 787 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,799 Speaker 1: We're down to one contest. I might do the Broncos 788 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:32,279 Speaker 1: Broncos Okay, I actually really like that. Yeah, I'll do that, 789 00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:33,920 Speaker 1: and I'll check your schedule and make sure there's no 790 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,520 Speaker 1: other layups. But this this feels as good as it's 791 00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,640 Speaker 1: gonna get right in that division. Our big balls better 792 00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:44,560 Speaker 1: the week is the New York Jets. These are Phase 793 00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:48,799 Speaker 1: five Jack's plus four and a half, Saints plus three, 794 00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,919 Speaker 1: Panthers plus two and a half, Eagles one and a half, 795 00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:59,600 Speaker 1: Ravens minus three and a half. It's time for scooch Roulette. 796 00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,640 Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. 797 00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:13,760 Speaker 1: Let's play don't roulette, Simon. We both won last week, 798 00:39:14,280 --> 00:39:17,799 Speaker 1: so I will defer to you. I really want to 799 00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:20,920 Speaker 1: go Ravens because I know it's like my favorite kind 800 00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:24,240 Speaker 1: of bet so far this week. But I'm feeling most 801 00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:27,400 Speaker 1: confident in the Saints. There's just something about the Saints 802 00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,240 Speaker 1: in this position at home. I just love the Saints 803 00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,360 Speaker 1: going against Tom. They're just it feels like the stock 804 00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,319 Speaker 1: on Tom's kind of going down here in the Saints 805 00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:37,479 Speaker 1: is going up, and that the Saints should be minus 806 00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:39,080 Speaker 1: two and a half, not plus two and a half. 807 00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,399 Speaker 1: So in fact, I'm getting what feels like a four 808 00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,200 Speaker 1: point difference is is enough for me. I can't pass on, 809 00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,520 Speaker 1: So I'll do the Saints. In my scutlet pick, you 810 00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:51,919 Speaker 1: will take the Saints, I'm writing that down. I will 811 00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:59,680 Speaker 1: take the Jacksonville Jaguars. You know what, it's the very 812 00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:03,160 Speaker 1: is bet that I made. I think I made it 813 00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,800 Speaker 1: on Sunday night when it was four and a half. 814 00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,719 Speaker 1: I looked at the lines while watching the Sunday night game. 815 00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:12,440 Speaker 1: I saw all these numbers. The two things that stood 816 00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:15,320 Speaker 1: out to me were the Chargers plus four and a 817 00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:18,719 Speaker 1: half and the Jags plus four and a half. I 818 00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:22,440 Speaker 1: bet the Jags right away. I'm still feeling good about it. No, 819 00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,000 Speaker 1: I agree. I mean again, that's that's such a fun 820 00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:26,759 Speaker 1: point about week do. It's like as soon as those 821 00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:28,360 Speaker 1: lines open, we kind of already knew what we were 822 00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:32,600 Speaker 1: gonna do. All right, I want to remind people download 823 00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:36,640 Speaker 1: the Action Network Gap follow the phase five to get 824 00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,480 Speaker 1: our final locked picks for our contest. Those would be 825 00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:42,440 Speaker 1: the five picks follow the Favorites podcast. I know it's confusing, 826 00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,440 Speaker 1: but we separated it so we could actually have fidelity 827 00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:48,040 Speaker 1: to the five picks that we choose every week and 828 00:40:48,080 --> 00:40:49,680 Speaker 1: people can see how we do at the end of 829 00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:53,200 Speaker 1: the year. That's why we separated the two handles the 830 00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:59,280 Speaker 1: Favorites podcast, you'll get Simon says, exact decision, Foxhole, Big Balls, 831 00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,360 Speaker 1: Scoot Rouette. Oh, Simon, we didn't do our money line 832 00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:07,840 Speaker 1: round Robin, Okay, sure this one. I honestly took a 833 00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:10,040 Speaker 1: long look at it, just because usually I try to 834 00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:11,440 Speaker 1: get a lot of home dogs. We have a lot 835 00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:13,680 Speaker 1: of home dogs this week, so it was a tougher, 836 00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:18,440 Speaker 1: tougher choices. But the first one that jumped out Carolina Saints. 837 00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:23,120 Speaker 1: Chad knows real love these dogs, Jaguars, no brainers, and 838 00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,000 Speaker 1: I was like, okay, who are upside dogs? You could 839 00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:29,160 Speaker 1: take that the outside chance of actually pulling these upsets. 840 00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:31,799 Speaker 1: First one that jumped out was Atlanta, the Atlanta Rams. 841 00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:33,520 Speaker 1: One that's gonna be such a huge number. I gotta 842 00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:35,839 Speaker 1: throw it in. People know I love big dogs. This 843 00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:38,120 Speaker 1: is my favorite big dog of the week. I had 844 00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,080 Speaker 1: to throw it in there. And who the hell is 845 00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:44,560 Speaker 1: Cleveland if you getting so many points? Chad knows the 846 00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:47,479 Speaker 1: Jets this is such a gross money line or dog, 847 00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:51,000 Speaker 1: but I do I do love the Jets to actually 848 00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:54,840 Speaker 1: have a chance of pulling it upset in this position. Okay, So, 849 00:41:54,920 --> 00:41:56,719 Speaker 1: like people are asking how how much you break it 850 00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:58,799 Speaker 1: out two times five And if you don't know what 851 00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:01,279 Speaker 1: that means, just go on the Action app. They'll they'll 852 00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:04,440 Speaker 1: give you a breakdown on what different ways you can 853 00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,640 Speaker 1: do around Robbins. It's the safest, most boring way to 854 00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:10,239 Speaker 1: do it. Like last week you went to two on one, 855 00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:12,040 Speaker 1: you don't lose all your money. You got a little 856 00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,160 Speaker 1: bit of money back. Where if you go three times 857 00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:16,520 Speaker 1: or four times, you need three or four these underdogs 858 00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,279 Speaker 1: to win, which is just it's really hard. So I 859 00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:24,280 Speaker 1: do two by five all right again? Download the Action 860 00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:27,520 Speaker 1: Network app you can follow everything. You guys should watch 861 00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:29,799 Speaker 1: green Dot Daily, which is really good. You can watch 862 00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:31,680 Speaker 1: it in the app. That's the best place to do 863 00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:34,359 Speaker 1: everything that we do. Watch green Dot Daily in the app. 864 00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:36,880 Speaker 1: Green Dot Daily is our daily show setting the betting 865 00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:40,080 Speaker 1: agenda for the day is at noon Eastern watch Convinced 866 00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,920 Speaker 1: Me with me Simon, Sean Kerner, Chris Raybond, Samantha Prividi, 867 00:42:43,000 --> 00:42:46,279 Speaker 1: Dann Ravel. That is our NFL pregame show. Watch that 868 00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:48,600 Speaker 1: at eleven am. A lot of good bets in that 869 00:42:48,680 --> 00:42:51,440 Speaker 1: This past week went six and three with those bets. 870 00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:58,120 Speaker 1: Download from Apple podcasts, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts, 871 00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:02,080 Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, give us five stars, say whatever you want. 872 00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:06,480 Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Until next time. I Love you, 873 00:43:07,800 --> 00:43:10,759 Speaker 1: M M.