WEBVTT - Surveillance: Hochul Calls for Small Business Relief 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.800 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.440 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Joining Us. 0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:30.320 Now placed the side Chris Hobby West fogout Securities, head 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:34.040 of Equity Strategy, momentum is too rich for our blood. 0:00:34.800 --> 0:00:38.239 Whilst Fog Chris, what does that made? So? What that 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:42.559 means is excuse me. Momentum strategies have gone too far right. 0:00:42.640 --> 0:00:46.160 Everyone during the recession ran to momentum strategies. They bid 0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:48.800 them up to a level that I don't think is sustainable. 0:00:49.159 --> 0:00:51.720 And this setup is very much what we've seen in 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:55.040 two thousand three, two thousand and nine. You have a recession, 0:00:55.280 --> 0:00:58.160 everyone runs to the safety momentum, they bid them up 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:01.440 to a level that's not sustainable. Recovery comes around and 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:05.120 PM say, oh, I need to get cyclicality. They run 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:08.160 from momentum. It becomes a contra indicator and next thing 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:10.360 you know, somebody says we have a two thousand sigma event, 0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:13.440 which isn't true. We have a point of inflection, which 0:01:13.440 --> 0:01:16.240 is what happens when momentum strategies, because ultimately you make 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:18.959 a deal with the devil. You you buy momentum. It 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:21.600 continues to go up, it performs, but when it turns, 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:25.080 it turns very badly, and you need to get out quickly. Chris, 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:28.200 given the unusually uncertain in the United Kingdom and the 0:01:28.280 --> 0:01:31.960 United States and frankly everywhere else, what is your revenue 0:01:32.000 --> 0:01:36.160 and down the income statement call? What's your actual fundamental 0:01:36.240 --> 0:01:40.480 call on what the stock market will do? So our 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:44.920 our stock market call for is very pedestrian. We're looking 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:47.360 at mid single digit returns. And what we've been saying 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:50.760 to clients for sometimes, if you want higher returns, if 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.000 you want more competitive rates of returns, you need to 0:01:53.000 --> 0:01:56.160 look down the market capitalization, smaller caps, you need to 0:01:56.160 --> 0:01:59.920 add more cyclicality, higher COVID beta, and you need to 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:03.280 start going into the financials. All right, So Chris, right 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:06.360 now you say that your antim no MO, You're not 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:08.240 going to go at the momentum. The price of admission 0:02:08.440 --> 0:02:10.840 is to hy So what do you do with your money? 0:02:11.360 --> 0:02:13.480 So what you do is it's very simple that the 0:02:13.480 --> 0:02:16.480 opposite of MOE is contraring you're looking for opportunities that 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:19.120 are less picked over. And again I'm gonna sound like 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:21.800 a broken record. Obviously small caps have worked in it. 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:24.000 I worked for the last couple of weeks, last couple 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:26.000 of months, but if you look at a multi year basis, 0:02:26.280 --> 0:02:29.639 they've really underperformed. And we want to look for things 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:32.520 that give you more value, things that that will work 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:36.080 in an early recovery, more cyclicality. And you can find 0:02:36.080 --> 0:02:38.639 that in financials, you can find that industrials. You can 0:02:38.680 --> 0:02:41.359 even find that in the commodity space. So we want 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:43.560 you to be diversified, but we want you to have 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:47.200 these certain characteristics in your portfolio. Do you stand the 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:50.639 knot of spice? For that, Chris um you go across 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:54.120 the globe. So so typically when value works, when cyclicality works, 0:02:54.320 --> 0:02:58.160 it works better overseas. US is very growth heavy, is 0:02:58.280 --> 0:03:00.400 very tech heavy. So I think you can source that 0:03:00.400 --> 0:03:02.600 in a number of different places, including the States, but 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:04.280 I think the rest of the world is going to 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:09.440 act a lot better in Chris. If that's the case, 0:03:09.919 --> 0:03:12.960 where's the opportunity now? Where is it running away from US? 0:03:13.000 --> 0:03:17.520 I mean some of these are moon shot trajectories right now, right, 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:20.000 which is why we say we're antim A lot of 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:22.720 these companies have had these parabolic moves. There will be 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:25.240 a day of reckoning the value that you're paying, what 0:03:25.440 --> 0:03:28.760 the costum admission is just too high. And ultimately, when 0:03:28.760 --> 0:03:31.440 you have an alternative, when the economy begins to recover, 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:34.400 which is what it's doing, people will come back to cyclicality. 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:37.440 They'll want the old economy and they'll run very quickly 0:03:37.480 --> 0:03:40.080 from it. But to answer your question, yes, every day 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:43.000 we go higher, we feel like we're stealing from tomorrow. 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:45.680 There's a limited amount of opportunity here and it's getting 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:49.280 less and less every day. An time out. You've been 0:03:49.320 --> 0:03:56.040 at home with the kids too long. Chris could not 0:03:56.200 --> 0:04:00.360 be more right. Chris crib to catch up. Thanks for 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:03.440 depend My best to you and a family. Sell me 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:10.800 that wowst Fago. I can't say I've never done this, 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:13.680 but I don't think I've ever done this. We just 0:04:13.720 --> 0:04:16.640 talk about a job's day twenty twenty one days ahead 0:04:16.680 --> 0:04:19.839 of schedule. It's a late job's day. January eight. Tom 0:04:19.880 --> 0:04:24.520 Purcelli joins with RBC Capital Markets. Tom frame up that 0:04:24.800 --> 0:04:30.240 key January eight report. How grim is it gonna be? Yeah? 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:32.280 I mean, look it's still a little early, but we 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:35.480 we are acknowledging that you could see another decline UM 0:04:35.839 --> 0:04:38.760 in for that December report, and you just haven't seen 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:42.160 a lot of real improvement in in UH continuing claims. 0:04:42.160 --> 0:04:45.080 Obviously we've seen UM initial claims arise at it, but 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:47.200 it's it's a continuing part that's really gonna feed most 0:04:47.680 --> 0:04:49.839 UH into the you know, sort of what our what 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:51.520 our call is going to be as relates to the 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:54.240 peril reports. So yeah, I think I think, Look, it's 0:04:54.240 --> 0:04:56.320 not just this December report. I mean, I think the 0:04:56.600 --> 0:05:00.360 reality is UM, if states continue to shut down, then 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:04.520 you're going to see UM perhaps even the January report, 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:07.760 the report for January come in come in negative. So 0:05:07.920 --> 0:05:09.960 I think we're gonna go through a rough patch. Now look, 0:05:10.040 --> 0:05:12.000 let me be clear, UM and I'm happy to talk 0:05:12.040 --> 0:05:14.040 about sort of the near term as as much as 0:05:14.080 --> 0:05:16.200 you like. But while we're gonna go through his rough 0:05:16.240 --> 0:05:18.520 patch here, we have to recognize that twenty one is 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:22.080 shaping up to be a pretty good year. You know, 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:23.560 all the p or I should say it this way, 0:05:23.720 --> 0:05:25.440 all the pieces are in place for twenty one to 0:05:25.480 --> 0:05:28.000 be a pretty good year. What does Q two Q 0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:31.000 three look like when does the service sector go back 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:35.760 to work? Based on RBC research. Yeah, so we as 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:39.080 my daughter rolls through the shot up that you gave 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:42.400 her ten of time, you gave her ten dollars? Did 0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:47.000 you give her ten dollars to shovel the driveway this morning? Time? 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:51.120 You gotta go bigger, You gotta go twenty dollars. Welcome 0:05:52.080 --> 0:05:55.920 twenty dollars. You gotta go twenty dollars. They won't shovel 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:59.080 it for anything under that. Yeah. Um, and and now 0:05:59.120 --> 0:06:01.160 I see through the corner. My my dog is about 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:05.000 to walk through as well. We love. I think the 0:06:05.080 --> 0:06:09.760 question was about when do we get back to uh 0:06:10.120 --> 0:06:12.640 gaining jobs? And look, I think the reality is we 0:06:12.640 --> 0:06:15.560 we could be gaining jobs. Um, you know, sort of 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:18.279 shortly into the into the new year. You know, it 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:20.400 was funny, Tom. I think one of the things that 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:23.880 I think is being really underappreciated is think about, um, 0:06:23.920 --> 0:06:25.880 some of the recent reports that we got from the 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:27.839 n f I B or from I s M or 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:31.080 even the Beige Book. They were talking about labor tightness. 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:33.599 We think about that they were talking about labor tightness 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:35.880 and it's all of this. So I think, what one 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:38.320 up happening is as we continue into the year, as 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:41.479 states start the process of reopening again, we think you 0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:43.839 could easily be back down toward full employment by the 0:06:43.839 --> 0:06:45.680 middle of the year. I mean, I think that that's 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.520 a foregone conclusion from our perspective. I think the bigger 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:50.680 question is, you know, how much progress do we make 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:54.160 over the balance of the year, beyond beyond the middle 0:06:54.200 --> 0:06:56.640 of the year, so you could be below full employment 0:06:56.640 --> 0:06:58.800 by by the end of twenty one, Tom, I feel 0:06:58.839 --> 0:07:00.880 like we're part of your family. It's really lovely, I've 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:02.719 got to say. And you're doing a great job just 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:06.000 plowing through with all the distractions in the background that 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:08.880 you clearly see in the back of your eye. I 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:11.440 do wonder, you know, a lot of people discount some 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:14.200 of the data that we're getting, saying it's messy, it's noisy, 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:16.640 it's complicated because the numbers are so big, and they're 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:20.000 reporting from states. Has been called into question. But there 0:07:20.040 --> 0:07:23.440 has been a transformation in the labor force to a 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:26.200 more technological society. And I was looking today at a 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:29.560 story that talked about Amazon warehouse workers and how they 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:33.320 are paid pretty low wages and a great number of 0:07:33.360 --> 0:07:36.120 them have to receive food stamps. What are we going 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:38.040 to see on the other side of this pandemic in 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:41.240 terms of the transformation and they and the ability for 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:45.520 people to get middle income jobs on the other side. Yes, 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:48.600 so look, I think again the Job Openings report is 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:50.320 going to be pretty instructive in this regard. And I 0:07:50.360 --> 0:07:51.560 think what we have to keep in mind be able 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:54.080 the most seven million job openings um and and they're 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:56.440 fairly broad based. I mean again, look when you look 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:58.880 at the IM report, you know, the i M Report, 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:02.080 they're not necessarily tough about how you know, lack of 0:08:02.080 --> 0:08:05.800 of ability to hire for you know, ultra um you know, 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:08.800 high level executive jobs. I mean, they're they're looking for 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:12.200 people on basically you know, sort of UM in the 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:15.520 manufacturing space UM. And they're having a hard time finding 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:19.800 workers in that capacity. So there are jobs out there. 0:08:19.800 --> 0:08:21.640 I think it's just gonna take time for for this 0:08:21.760 --> 0:08:25.160 healing process to to to continue. UM. But I think 0:08:25.200 --> 0:08:27.280 by the time again, I think next year at this time, 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:29.320 and you know, let's let's let's promise to have another 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:32.880 conversation on December seventeenth, assuming that's not a weekend UM 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:36.040 And I think, well, the story will be very, very different. 0:08:36.200 --> 0:08:39.520 I think that it's you're going to be below full 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:43.400 employment by that point next year, we'll be talking about 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:45.640 how hot the fetes running it some you think in 0:08:45.760 --> 0:08:49.600 nine months, I do, Jonathan. I think that you know 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:51.959 again here too, we think the conversation is going to 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:55.080 change pretty abruptly. I mean, I've said many times I 0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:57.599 think even to you all, that you know, Powell is 0:08:57.679 --> 0:09:01.520 not incentivized to talk pause typically about the economic backdrop, 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:04.160 right He's he's more incentivized to, you know, say, hey, 0:09:04.200 --> 0:09:06.640 we're we're we're cautious, we're ready to do what we 0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:09.760 can in etcetera. But I think there's gonna have to 0:09:09.800 --> 0:09:12.360 be at some point of pivot over the course of 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:15.559 twenty one where we move from this, hey things are 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:18.040 you know, sort of looking really bad too. Hey, actually 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:20.240 things are looking pretty good and we're actually starting to 0:09:20.240 --> 0:09:22.560 see some inflationary pressures really start to build. We wouldn't 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:25.160 be the least bit surprised if the FED moves away 0:09:25.160 --> 0:09:27.559 from this notion of you know, hey, we're gonna we're 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:29.480 not gonna be able to raise rates until twenty three 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:32.240 or beyond. We can easily make an argument that you 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:34.640 could see a rate hike in in twenty two. Now, 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:36.880 before anyone falls out of their chair, I think what 0:09:36.920 --> 0:09:39.000 people have to keep in mind is we're not talking 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:42.240 about you know, there's a difference between hiking rates and 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:46.920 actually having tight policy. The removals and combination in and 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:49.920 of itself doesn't mean that you have tight policy. It 0:09:50.040 --> 0:09:52.840 means that you're removing some accommodation. And so if the 0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:55.360 backdrop evolves as we think, which is to say, you know, 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:59.320 five percent growth with upside risk uh core inflation, that's 0:09:59.320 --> 0:10:02.000 you know, north of two percent and even touches two 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.920 and a half percent over the course of twenty one, 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:07.000 I think it's gonna be really difficult for the FED 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:08.719 to latch onto this notion that they're not going to 0:10:08.800 --> 0:10:11.160 do anything until twenty three. I mean that, uh you 0:10:11.200 --> 0:10:13.280 know that, that to me is just entirely too far fetch. 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:16.920 Even Powell himself has acknowledged that things in the medium 0:10:17.160 --> 0:10:20.320 that they're upside risks in the medium term. Um you 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:22.720 know that, that to us is he's he's right to 0:10:22.720 --> 0:10:25.080 say that because we think that there are um and 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:27.760 in that context, there's gonna be no scenario again short 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:30.440 of things really collapsing again that they're gonna, you know, 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:34.400 not be able to touch rates until twenty three and 0:10:34.400 --> 0:10:39.400 and I would be mindful of time, but I think 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:40.840 we have to keep in mind. I think everyone's looking 0:10:40.840 --> 0:10:45.360 for the steepener in in one look, and I'm sympathetic 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:47.360 to the idea of a bit more steepening here in 0:10:47.400 --> 0:10:50.880 the immediate term. But I think as the year progresses again, 0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:52.240 as you get towards the back end of the year, 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:54.000 I can make the argument that the curse actually starts 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:56.120 to flight because I think the front end of the 0:10:56.160 --> 0:10:58.080 market will start to sniff out pretty early. The FED 0:10:58.160 --> 0:11:00.360 is actually gonna be late to the party, and thus 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:02.760 I could see again the curve is gonna rise in general, 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:06.199 but I see two year yields rising faster than tents, 0:11:06.240 --> 0:11:08.040 and you can actually see some curve flattening as the 0:11:08.080 --> 0:11:10.679 year progressive. It's the time. Let's build on this. Let's 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:12.360 think about a little bit more of the communication that 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:14.839 we've had in the last twenty four hours. It's the 0:11:14.920 --> 0:11:19.160 quantitative outcome based guidance. A feature or a buck do 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:24.480 you think? Uh So? I love this question. Um, they 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:26.880 wanted to be a feature, but I think it's a bug. 0:11:27.080 --> 0:11:29.960 I mean I think it's really hard. Look there, the 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:32.760 reality is we don't know, you know. Powell's asked one 0:11:32.760 --> 0:11:35.439 of the reporters asked him a great question yesterday and 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:37.439 it was basically and it was basically, how do we know, 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:39.760 you know when when when we've sort of when when 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.360 we've met your objectives? Um? You know, is the step 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:45.440 a good summary of economic projections? Is that a good 0:11:45.480 --> 0:11:48.960 guy post? And basically said no, He's like, it's not 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:51.480 a good guy post because he doesn't know exactly what 0:11:51.520 --> 0:11:53.440 it is. And I'm sympathetic to that, but I think 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:56.120 there's the problem with this, this you know, quote unquote 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:59.240 outcome based guidance. If we don't really know what output 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:02.079 we're aiming for, then how do you know when you've arrived? Um? 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:04.960 So I think this whole notion of of of shifting 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:07.160 the framework, I think it's gonna want to proving to 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:09.600 be quite messy for the FED down the road because 0:12:09.600 --> 0:12:11.240 we just don't have the guide post in place. And 0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:14.360 again I'm sort of sympathetic to them on some level, 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:16.240 but on the other you know, I don't know why 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.080 they had to actively down this path, um, particularly if 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:20.480 you're not going to set up the right guid post 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:23.559 and we don't know what they are within your enthusiasm? 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:27.560 Do you just assume service sector inflation reverts to its 0:12:27.559 --> 0:12:32.160 three percentage? Mean? Yeah, Tom, So I think we do. 0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:33.880 I mean I think you know. One of the things 0:12:33.880 --> 0:12:36.600 that people I think are are you know, seem to 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:40.520 forget is that we we we are from a service 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:44.400 sector inflation perspective, it just persistently runs it around a 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:47.240 three percent page um. And guess where we have a 0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:49.880 lot of room to make up from a spending perspective. 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:53.559 In twenty one services right, goods have killed it. You know, 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:57.520 they're well north of where we were pre COVID. Services 0:12:57.960 --> 0:12:59.920 is the ladder um and that's going to be the 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:05.640 area that we really make if services are lagging? Does 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:08.000 that mean you pay fifty dollars to your daughter to 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:12.000 shovel the driveway? Actually, that's why she just ran away. 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:18.400 She's she's going right. Who we really want to meet 0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:22.720 is young Preston, poor Sally who understands up to date? 0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:28.520 Is he around? Tom? He's crushed it this year. He 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:35.320 has set from our VC. Send our regards to the family, Tom, 0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:38.360 thank you. I love about this year. There's only one 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:39.960 thing I love about this year because this year has 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:42.920 been terrible for so many reasons for everybody. How natural 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:45.760 that's now become. Remember when they have an interviewers in 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:48.120 Hong Kong several years ago and the child walked in 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:50.600 and it was like, whoa, there's a child in the room. 0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:52.559 And then at the start of this everyone was like, whoa, 0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:55.959 there's Now it's just yeah, everyone's working at home. Who 0:13:55.960 --> 0:14:01.200 else is going to come in? Bring the dog? Right now? 0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:04.079 We're gonna migrate to this pandemic into what to do? 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:07.239 What to do can be personified by a given restaurant 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:10.880 in New York, in Chicago, in l A and points 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:14.760 in between. The Lieutenant Governor of the Empire State is 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:17.800 Kathy Hokel, and she joins us this morning on any 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:21.600 number of topics. Cathy, there's snow in New York. It's 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:24.920 not gonna work outdoors today. It's not going to work 0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:30.640 indoors either. How badly the small business? How badly do 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:38.000 local and state need this fiscal stimulus? We definitely need it. 0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:40.640 I've been saying this for months. Governor Como has been 0:14:40.640 --> 0:14:44.200 saying this for month. Governor Como leaves the National Governor's 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:49.000 Association a bipartisan group, every one of them, Republicans and Democrats, 0:14:49.000 --> 0:14:52.080 have been clamoring for help from Congress to give to 0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.960 state local governments, but also direct relief for our small businesses. 0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:59.320 In particular. I was in the city just yesterday day 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:02.560 before the restaurants. I sat down with restaurant owners. They 0:15:02.560 --> 0:15:05.640 are starving, They're literally starving. We have to help them. 0:15:05.920 --> 0:15:08.760 The Settle government can right now help with a stimulus plan. 0:15:08.840 --> 0:15:11.440 It doesn't help the state local governments, which is pathetic, 0:15:12.120 --> 0:15:14.800 the abdication of their responsibility. So we are in trouble, 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:17.160 but at least get some money to the small businesses. 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:20.880 Right now, the reporting, including our Kevin surreally is state 0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:23.520 and local aid won't be in this bill. I guess 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:26.720 it's gonna get done. You know the timeline as well, 0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:31.520 What is your and Governor Cuomo's timeline to where things 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:34.800 fall apart if you don't get aid in the stimulus 0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:39.600 we right now, our expectations are that it's not going 0:15:39.640 --> 0:15:41.680 to be in there, and what we're being told unless 0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:44.160 there's some uh you know howiday gift that's going to 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:46.680 come our way, which we pray for, but not if 0:15:46.760 --> 0:15:49.720 we manage our expectations, it doesn't come. What we're going 0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:52.480 to do is to be able to allocate one point 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:56.479 five billion dollars of state money to the essential services 0:15:56.560 --> 0:15:59.560 that otherwise would not be funded. You cannot have a 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:03.080 plan to have a mass distribution of vaccinations throughout the 0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:06.680 state and at the same time cut healthcare workers from 0:16:06.760 --> 0:16:10.040 hospitals and clinics. It doesn't work. So we're planning on 0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:13.320 a Joe Biden presidency. We expect that we'll be able 0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:16.320 to get more help from from the federal government. And 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:19.360 I'll tell you it all comes down in Georgia. Amazing 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:21.560 that the destiny of New York State is going to 0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:24.640 come down to who wins the election in the Senate races, 0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:27.320 in the in the runoffs in Georgia in the early January. 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:30.440 If it's if we can have a majority of Democrats, 0:16:30.480 --> 0:16:33.960 they understand this, they've lived this, they actually have empathy 0:16:34.000 --> 0:16:36.520 for people, they'll be able to get the job done. 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:38.680 Short of that, and we're gonna have to deal with 0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:41.360 this in our budget in March, and we'll have to 0:16:41.440 --> 0:16:44.200 make serious, serious cuts at that time. But right now, 0:16:44.440 --> 0:16:46.200 we're just not going to do We're not going to 0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:48.320 lay off teachers, We're not going to lay off health 0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:51.000 care workers. We're not going to lay off police officers 0:16:51.120 --> 0:16:55.560 right now just because Washington is failing abjectively. So we're 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:57.400 going to get it done in New York State will 0:16:57.400 --> 0:16:59.760 be in financial trouble, but we'll have to deal with 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:01.720 it in on budget in March. All right, let's talk 0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:03.680 about what that means. You say major cuts, Does it 0:17:03.760 --> 0:17:07.840 also mean raising taxes? That is absolutely on the table. 0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:10.000 The last thing we've wanted to do in New York 0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:13.760 State is to raise taxes, particularly in these troubled times. 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:17.520 We understand that that is not a good plan. The 0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:19.679 plan A, it's it's not a good plan. B. It's 0:17:19.680 --> 0:17:21.760 not a good plan. See. But we may get to 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:25.119 that point if we don't get that that essential assistance 0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:28.840 from the federal government to help offset the fifteen billion 0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:32.000 dollars that we're now faced and the whole we're facing. Uh, 0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:34.520 we're going to need to do something we don't want 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:37.639 to have to do that the federal government can alleviate that. Again, 0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:40.479 this is not because of how New York manages its finance. 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:43.920 This is because of a global pandemic. This is not 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:46.880 anything we had any control over. We're doing the very 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:49.720 best we can and we get this vaccine out. I'm 0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:51.640 telling you sure that I'm standing here in New York 0:17:51.680 --> 0:17:54.760 State will be the very first state to be COVID 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:56.919 free because we're going to be very aggressive about this. 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:59.200 That should be good news to businesses in New York 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:02.159 to know the states across this country. I'm not going 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:03.640 to be what we are in a few months. We're 0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:06.320 going to be very aggressive about this. It requires us 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:09.320 to have money for healthcare workers to get that vaccine 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:11.800 in people's arms. So let's talk about the process of 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:13.760 rolling out the vaccine. You said that New York State 0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:17.000 will be among the first. What is the timetable for 0:18:17.080 --> 0:18:20.240 the rollout as you see it now? It's going on 0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:23.640 right now. We have different phases. We are in Phase one, 0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:27.800 which is nursing home residents, staff, high risk costol workers. 0:18:27.840 --> 0:18:31.360 Those are literally out there being administered in hospitals all 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:33.679 over the state of New York. And we're proud that 0:18:33.680 --> 0:18:36.600 New York State had the very first individual one of 0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:40.960 our footline workers in Queens be the first in the nations. 0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:44.040 So we're excited about that. So we are also planning 0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:48.280 for phase two. Phase two will be essential workers and 0:18:48.800 --> 0:18:53.520 priority general public meeting knows with co morbidity underlying health conditions, 0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:55.720 so will be focusing on them as well. So we 0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:59.000 don't think that's going to come until later January. But 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.160 I'll tell you, if we can get more supplies begin 0:19:02.240 --> 0:19:04.000 this would be a wonderful gift. Or we can get 0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:07.320 more supplies when Maderna gets approved and Fightser is able 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:09.920 to come up with more, we will have no problem 0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:13.639 getting this out two New Yorkers. We have a very 0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:16.360 crest of plan that we've been working on since last 0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:19.680 July to get this into communities all over the state 0:19:19.760 --> 0:19:22.320 and in rural areas and in communities of color that 0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:23.800 have been hard. As said, we're going to have to 0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:26.960 overcome a lot of reluctance and that's part of our 0:19:27.000 --> 0:19:31.640 public relations campaign that's going on as we speak. Lieutenant Government, 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:33.680 we only have so much time, about sixty seconds left. 0:19:33.680 --> 0:19:35.119 But if you could tell me where we are just 0:19:35.200 --> 0:19:37.840 in terms of considering another lockdown, We've had a lot 0:19:37.840 --> 0:19:39.520 about that in the last couple of weeks. What's your 0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:42.600 take at the moment, we don't have to do that. 0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:46.720 There's there is a plan if people right now change 0:19:46.760 --> 0:19:50.240 their behavior. Those who have been ignoring the mask mandates 0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:53.359 and ignoring our request that they stay socially distance. If 0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:56.240 they change their behavior, literally, we can get through these 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:58.520 holidays and we'll start seeing a decline. Right now in 0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:01.000 New York state is about six per that inspection rate. 0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:04.200 That is still the fourth lowest in the nation. So 0:20:04.240 --> 0:20:06.000 I give a lot of credit to New Yorkers for 0:20:06.080 --> 0:20:08.639 its hearing to this, but it's trending upward, and we're 0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:12.840 worried about hospitalization capacity. Right now, we're about for the 0:20:12.880 --> 0:20:16.280 state available and if that starts getting much lower, then 0:20:16.320 --> 0:20:19.040 we have to talk about shutdown. But that is not 0:20:19.119 --> 0:20:21.600 our that that is where we hope not to end up. 0:20:21.600 --> 0:20:23.159 And we're not going to talk about that right now 0:20:23.200 --> 0:20:25.600 because we don't know what the behavior of people will 0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:28.879