1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Lee. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. Mark 5 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:35,240 Speaker 1: Chandler Bannockburn Global Foreign Exchange Chief market strategist and managing partner. 6 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: He joins us, Now, what did you think about that? Mark? 7 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:41,000 Speaker 1: Really decent GDP print, and then there are reasons beneath 8 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:43,599 Speaker 1: the surface to be skeptical about it continuing through the year, 9 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 1: but just the negativity surrounding a better than expected GDP 10 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 1: figure in the United States. Yeah, so I was blown 11 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 1: away by too. You know, my back of the envelope 12 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: calculation was closer to two percent. The street was a 13 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: little bit above their. Uh. The number came like blue 14 00:00:57,080 --> 00:00:59,319 Speaker 1: blue away expectations. But a lot of it, like you say, 15 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: is due to thing that don't look like recurring, things 16 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: like inventory growth, which likely will take off from production 17 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 1: going forward. But in general, I think the important thing 18 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:10,760 Speaker 1: for me is just that how the US GDP is 19 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 1: going to compare to what we're gonna get later this 20 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 1: week from the Eurozone. Tomorrow we get Italy's GDP. I 21 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 1: know that the streets looking for the government is looking 22 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,759 Speaker 1: for a point one percent increase. I think that's being optimistic. 23 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: We're talking about an economy that's barely grown. Uh. It 24 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 1: really stagnated contracted in the second half of last year. 25 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: So for me, it's not just that the GDP number 26 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 1: wasn't quite as good as what it looked like on 27 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: the optics, but that comparatively, the US still looks like 28 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,040 Speaker 1: the driest towel. So the major estimate for the euro 29 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: Zone GDP figure that comes out tomorrow is one point 30 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 1: one percent year on year. How close are we to 31 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:48,080 Speaker 1: stall speed? I caught up with Muhammad Alarium last week. 32 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: You basically said we could be pretty close to stall 33 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 1: speed in the euro Zone. What are your thoughts on 34 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 1: that mark? Yeah, So I think that the problem is 35 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 1: that when we you know, just like the US GDP 36 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 1: numbers this time to calculate, the government always doesn't have 37 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: fleet data when they make the preliminary forecast. This time 38 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 1: because the government shutdown, the data is even more incomplete 39 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: than usual. Same thing in the euro Zone. Here's we're 40 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: gonna get tomorrow we're gonna get Italy Spain report, and 41 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: I think France reports on Wednesday, and then the euro 42 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: Zone reports. Germany, the biggest economy in the euro Zone, 43 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: doesn't report to the middle of the month, and so 44 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 1: I think that the German economy is really really install speed. 45 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: Uh Spain is going to grow like two and a 46 00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,240 Speaker 1: half percent. Their election this weekend had very little new 47 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: about the economy, much more to do about the Catalonian 48 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: successionist movement. So there's reason is to become if you're 49 00:02:32,400 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: on the federal reserve. At the moment, inflation is self 50 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:37,079 Speaker 1: to than expected, GDP has bent to than expected. There's 51 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 1: no reason to rush away with the movie either way. 52 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: But when you look abroad, that weakness abroad, how does 53 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:44,079 Speaker 1: that play into that news conference with Cham and Pal 54 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: this Wednesday? So I think that people are doing They're 55 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 1: looking at like the ten year US yield and they 56 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: see a closing last week below two fifty, and they say, 57 00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: what is this telling us about the economy? And I say, 58 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: it's not really telling us anything about the economy depending 59 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:56,920 Speaker 1: on where you ask it. And I think if you 60 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,600 Speaker 1: ask it properly, it's telling us that Germany and Japan 61 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 1: have egative yields and it makes the US yields more attractive. 62 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 1: Not so much that foreigners are rushing to buy US treasuries, 63 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:09,239 Speaker 1: but Americans, we are keeping our money at home. Well 64 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: that's what we're last week. And this goes to your 65 00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:15,359 Speaker 1: expertise in in foreign exchange. Is it about dollars stable, 66 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: dollars stronger, or is it about euro weaker? Yes, so right, 67 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 1: let's say symmetric. It's asymmetric. I think that's primarily a 68 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: case of euro weakness. Now, I think that we've seen 69 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 1: UH dollar yet stabilize allound us A one eleven, one twelve. 70 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: I think it's primarily now Europe as the week sister 71 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 1: here struggling to sustain growth, struggling to have higher inflation. 72 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 1: But I'm thinking that the worst of Europe is behind us, 73 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 1: that Germany is beginning to recover, that the recovery and 74 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 1: China is going to help Germany. Uh. Look, here's what 75 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: I think. It strikes me as a lot of people 76 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 1: are forgetting the German manufacturing sector has been shocked by China. 77 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 1: Turkey don't problems. But what's good about Germany right now? 78 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:57,040 Speaker 1: It's service sector. Is that four month highs. According to 79 00:03:57,080 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 1: the the i f O survey, it's like six month 80 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: high on the p M. I okay, But but the 81 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: U S G d P. The John lead with, if 82 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: you take out the external dynamics that exports and you know, 83 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 1: inventory noise, the domestic final sales of the American economy 84 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 1: wasn't so hot, and we saw the yield come in 85 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,520 Speaker 1: with a vengeance, right exactly. So I think that when 86 00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: you look at that the final purchases by domestic a 87 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 1: private sector to exclude the government to you're looking at 88 00:04:22,480 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 1: about one point three percent growth, the lowest in about 89 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:27,919 Speaker 1: four or five years. But I think to to your point, John, 90 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: is that I think that other things will make up 91 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:32,240 Speaker 1: for it. The consumer will bounce back a little bit 92 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:34,719 Speaker 1: in the second quarter, with the with the relatively firm 93 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,520 Speaker 1: employment market that will get another update on this week. 94 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: I think that the US economy doesn't look all that 95 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,559 Speaker 1: bad as shape, and I think we should expect something 96 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: around trend growth this year. Reason to believe that the 97 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: consumer could bounce back in a second quarter as well. 98 00:04:46,120 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 1: The consumer out back in Q one, so I think 99 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 1: there are some better than expected GDP figures we could 100 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:54,919 Speaker 1: still get. Despite the fact that net trade will be 101 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: a drag potentially in the following quarta, that imageries potentially 102 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: will be a dragon the following quarta. I thought, what 103 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,040 Speaker 1: was interesting to me whilst we consumed ourselves with the 104 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 1: g D people on Friday, what the bond market was 105 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: really trading con was the inflation figure. The inflation The 106 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: inflation figure was softer than expected, and I just wanted 107 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 1: to mark to what degree that is what it's really 108 00:05:14,880 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 1: shaping things in the bond market, particularly at the front 109 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 1: end and around these cool still for a rank cut 110 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:21,200 Speaker 1: from the Fed. Yeah, I think that's what a lot 111 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 1: of people are focusing on. They're looking at the low 112 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: inflation number. Then they're talking about a repeaterd the FED 113 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 1: taking like a preective action U to UH in a 114 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: middle of a relatively healthy growth firm stock market like 115 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 1: they did in the late nineties. And I think that 116 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 1: the people are looking at this, but I'm just not 117 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,119 Speaker 1: convinced that's gonna be the case. John, to your point, 118 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 1: nominal GDP was three point eight percent. There is no 119 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: politician breathing or that's acceptable. I mean none, zero. I mean, 120 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,359 Speaker 1: it's just just no other way to put it. As well, 121 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: so how is this distilled? To sum up Mark Chandler, 122 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:55,040 Speaker 1: how is this distilled Wednesday by the fat Is this 123 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,239 Speaker 1: like what we used to call it a dead meeting? 124 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 1: Remember pre press conferences when he's trying to live life meeting? 125 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 1: But is it a dead meeting even though we're alive? Wait, 126 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 1: it sounds like game of thrones. You know. Here's I think. 127 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:09,720 Speaker 1: I think that in March the Federal Reserve, I think 128 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 1: the Federals have overreacted to things that we were looking 129 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:14,359 Speaker 1: at back in January and February. It looks like the 130 00:06:14,440 --> 00:06:16,760 Speaker 1: U s economy stagnated. So they say in the March 131 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 1: FO m C meeting that the US economy looks like 132 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:21,479 Speaker 1: it pulled back. And now I think they have to 133 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:24,520 Speaker 1: revise that. But I think that they do it away 134 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 1: that uh, that slowly recognizes that a lot of these 135 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: cross currents have eased and the biggest stretch of the 136 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:33,600 Speaker 1: US economy now the Federal Reserve will state will be overseas, 137 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 1: will be uncertainly about trade, will be about Brexit. It's 138 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: not going to be so much about the domestic dynamics. Yeah, well, 139 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: Mar thank you so much. Catherine Young is out of 140 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 1: Australia working with fidelity, thinking very hard in coming to 141 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:05,840 Speaker 1: us from our Queen Victoria Street Studios today, Catherine, if 142 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:10,040 Speaker 1: I look at your recent real focus on belt and Road, 143 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:14,480 Speaker 1: let's just start with the real definition. What's the actual 144 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 1: Katherine Young definition of what Belton Road is. So the 145 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 1: belt Road initiative is to reconstruct the Silk Road route 146 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: and essentially it's sheeting Pings policy in terms of increasing 147 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: China's soft power status globally, it's very near to it's hard. 148 00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 1: It's definitely up there in terms of policies and the 149 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 1: policy agenda for China going forward. The rap is they're 150 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: using debt financing and when well intentioned people that's what 151 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: we're assuming can't pay the bill, China ends up with 152 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 1: equity or ownership interest and some of these belt and 153 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 1: road properties. Is that true? Is that valid? There has 154 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: been a lot of criticism and in fact last year 155 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 1: when we saw the new leadership in Malaysia getting sworn in, 156 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: they actually went back to the drawing board and went 157 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 1: to Beijing canceled all the Belt Road initiatives in terms 158 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 1: of the train system, have subsequently though readdressed the projects 159 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 1: and undertaking it. Albeit at a much lower cost. And 160 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 1: so what we are seeing now is she jumping really 161 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: pledging to have a much more open approach and to 162 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 1: really focus on this issue of how much debt is 163 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 1: too much debt, especially for the emerging or frontier economies. Catherine, 164 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 1: it was interesting that the President used his speech at 165 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 1: the second Bound and Road Forum to set out a 166 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 1: framework that I think was to attract the President of 167 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: the United States more than it was to the leaders 168 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: he was actually speaking to more specifically just protecting intellectual property. Katherine, 169 00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:47,520 Speaker 1: what did you think of that speech? There were definitely 170 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:49,600 Speaker 1: a lot of hints there in regards to not just 171 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:51,880 Speaker 1: the Belt Road initiative, but as you as you actually 172 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 1: pointed out the ongoing trade discussions with the United States, 173 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: so we did speak about IP protection. He spoke about 174 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 1: generally speaking, more transparency, easing the barriers in terms of 175 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:05,440 Speaker 1: customs and imports. So he used this as definitely a 176 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 1: platform to get his message across. When we look at 177 00:09:08,080 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 1: what China is trying to achieve, though, and you do 178 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: all these key searches in terms of just high frequency words, 179 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: it's about stabilization of growth, and again you're hearing more 180 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:19,959 Speaker 1: and more about the transparency, the opening up and doing 181 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 1: deals by laterally, not just with the US but with 182 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 1: all economies. So talks resumed tomorrow between Secretary Manuchin, Trade 183 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:30,319 Speaker 1: representative light Eyes are meeting with the Chinese invaging Catherine. 184 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: How hopefull are you that we are in the end game, 185 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:34,559 Speaker 1: that we can achieve something and what that something is 186 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 1: in the next couple of weeks, I don't know. Terrified, 187 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: we are likely to see some resolution. This really has 188 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:44,520 Speaker 1: been an overhang for the markets or for sentiments over 189 00:09:44,559 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 1: the past year. But just because we see a resolution, Terrified, 190 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:49,959 Speaker 1: doesn't mean that that's the end of the situation. And 191 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 1: you're probably going to see this twing and throwing between 192 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 1: these two economies going forward, because they're competing in the 193 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 1: same high end manufacturing space WITHHE five G or aeronauticles, 194 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 1: et cetera. To be clear through and they're doing this 195 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 1: X World Bank and I m f X multilateral institutions. 196 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:12,439 Speaker 1: This is a goat alone China strategy. Yes, very much 197 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 1: by funded with the Asian Development Bank, which was pretty 198 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 1: much established by China. And again, you know, when you 199 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 1: look at the rationale, it really is about increasing soft 200 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 1: power status, are they It is across globe in terms 201 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:26,719 Speaker 1: of yeah, they are, they are definitely and for them 202 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:28,679 Speaker 1: to once again become the superpower, which is what they 203 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 1: want to do. By I mean, it's all sort of 204 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:34,200 Speaker 1: spoken out and measured out. They have to initiate what 205 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 1: the US is calling the Marshall Plan. Is it Okay? 206 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: I like that emotion. Is it a Marshal Plan for 207 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 1: Beijing to a degree. But it's not just this policy, 208 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: it's also the maid In strategy. So this is basically 209 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 1: Chinese manufacturers climbing up the value chain. If you are 210 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:55,440 Speaker 1: to become the world economy or the leader of the 211 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 1: world economies, then you can't just be the world's largest 212 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 1: toy manufacturer. And so there's a lot going on policy wise, 213 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:03,440 Speaker 1: And don't forget the biggest risk for China is still 214 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: actually domestic issues. So ensuring that domestically sentiment is going 215 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 1: to be revived after last year to sort thank you 216 00:11:12,160 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 1: so much, really really good fidelity worldwide. Uh and with 217 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: a huge academic background out of Australia, looking at Southern 218 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:39,840 Speaker 1: Asia as well. There were elections in Spain and you'd say, okay, big, 219 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 1: there's elections in Spain, except their elections in Hungary. There 220 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 1: are elections in Poland. They were indeed various and sundry elections, 221 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: including I think local elections this Thursday in the United Kingdom. 222 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: Alistare Newton has been a student of this for a 223 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: long time with Avalon Business Advisory and joins us this morning. 224 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:06,599 Speaker 1: And Spain, Alista, you've really dazed into the new conservative 225 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 1: movement in Spain. How is it associated with Franco of 226 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: another time and place? I think not particularly, to be 227 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:21,719 Speaker 1: quite honest. If we look at Box, the populist nationalist 228 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 1: party to which you're referring, which performed very well in 229 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 1: this election. This is the first time we've actually got 230 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 1: over one percentage point ten point three general election. Yeah, precisely, 231 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 1: very good. Indeed, from their perspective, it actually bears more 232 00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:44,199 Speaker 1: relationship to the conservative parties in government in Poland and 233 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 1: Hungary than it does to say, Marie La Penn's party 234 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 1: in France. Um, it's sort of populist nationalist. It's anti immigration, 235 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 1: but it is pro EU largely, which is one of 236 00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: the more interesting characteristics of it. You're a skeptic but 237 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:04,439 Speaker 1: not anti Eropean. What is their potential vote? I mean, 238 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:07,680 Speaker 1: I look carefully, folks, I believe there's five major parties. 239 00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:11,440 Speaker 1: The top vote was twenty and then down for there's 240 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:14,720 Speaker 1: nothing like in the United States. But Alistair, what is 241 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:21,079 Speaker 1: the potential of the anti immigration vote? Is it? Is it? 242 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 1: Do you have a number? And that? Well, it would 243 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 1: be very full hardly to come up with a firm 244 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: statistic given the massive increase in Boxes votes over the 245 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 1: course of the last five months since the regional elections 246 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 1: in Andalusia where they performed at a similar level, that 247 00:13:40,240 --> 00:13:42,959 Speaker 1: was a big breakthrough moment for them. But I would 248 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 1: suggest that perhaps the best example we could look at 249 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:51,599 Speaker 1: tentatively and traditionally would be the trajectory of alternative of 250 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:55,400 Speaker 1: DUTs and in Germany, a similar source of party, but 251 00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 1: more right wing in the traditional sense, more anti immigration, 252 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 1: more and EU and they plateaued at roughly fifteen one five. 253 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: Now let's also keep in mind though the Box has 254 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:11,439 Speaker 1: benefited from the collaps in support for the main right 255 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: of center party, as was Partido Popular, which has alternated 256 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: in government with the socialist PSOE ever since the end 257 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 1: of the Franco era. So there probably is an element 258 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: of the vote for Box yesterday which is a protest 259 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 1: vote rather than a vote for Box per se, Let's 260 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,040 Speaker 1: talk about what can be achieved in Spain with the 261 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 1: government we're set to get the socialist Pedro Sanchez said, 262 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: to return as prime minister, he's going to need the 263 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 1: help of left leaning allies. He's most likely going to 264 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: need the help also perhaps from Cantalan separatists as well 265 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: to govern. What can they actually achieve? Alistair Well, first 266 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 1: of all, we need to see what the exact makeup 267 00:14:49,360 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: of the government is going to be. Clearly, Pedroro Sanchez 268 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: could and suggested this morning he would decide to try 269 00:14:57,400 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 1: to govern with a minority government again, as he did 270 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 1: successfully for eight months until the Catalonians pulled the rug 271 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 1: on him precipitating this general election. That would give him 272 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: some additional flexibility in principle because he would not be 273 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: in a coalition with Toodanos, who would act as a 274 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 1: significant break on structural reforms which Spain still needs, and 275 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 1: probably rolled back some of the reforms which we've already seen. 276 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: He would better turn right woods towards through the Dinos, 277 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 1: which is basically pros economic reform if he's a minority government. However, 278 00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: we're in for a protracted negotiation before we see that 279 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 1: also very quickly. Or one final question, what can Italy 280 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:43,600 Speaker 1: learn from Spain? Is it fair to say Italy needs 281 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 1: to learn the stability or the mix, the cultural mix 282 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 1: of Spain? Is that is that true? Well, the first 283 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 1: thing that Italy needs to learn from Spain is actually 284 00:15:55,160 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 1: how to do structural reform, because the Spanish story since 285 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: the class of Lean and Brothers has been one of 286 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: quite a lot of really quite successful structural reforms which 287 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 1: are boosted Spanish GDP growth to a round about two 288 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 1: point five or three on average for the past few years. 289 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 1: Italy is wonderfully below that, largely because no Italian government 290 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 1: for many many years has seriously gripped the structural with 291 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 1: form metal. So I would say the first thing it 292 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: really needs to do is to look at the economic 293 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 1: side rather than the political side. Thank you so much, Elster, 294 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 1: greatly appreciate it. Elista Newton with us today and the 295 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 1: Spanish elections, Karen, thanks so much. One thing is certain 296 00:16:54,440 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 1: Measles is front and center. And all that can be 297 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 1: said about this is maybe this is an't the interview 298 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 1: of the week or the year, it's the interview of 299 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 1: your children's futures. There was a pixie dust in the 300 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:10,479 Speaker 1: air of virology and microbiology through the seventies and eighties 301 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 1: were centered on a gentleman named Baltimore at Rockefeller University. 302 00:17:15,080 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 1: Peter Hotez was advantaged by Rockefeller University, has PhD there 303 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 1: in biochemistry. He has a beyond distinguished career in all 304 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 1: of these issues of the moment, in these questions and 305 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: were thrilled from Baylor University Peter Hotez this morning. Peter, Peter, 306 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 1: it's great to have you on under these dire circumstances. 307 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:41,400 Speaker 1: On November twelve of two thousand two, measles was eradicated. 308 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 1: How did it come back if it was eradicated, Well, 309 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: it came back because of a self inflicted wound. We 310 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,880 Speaker 1: let our guard down. We allowed a anti vaccine movement 311 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: to ascend from a fringe group into its own media 312 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,680 Speaker 1: empire with a series of political action committees, and they're 313 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: operating throughout the United States. As a result, we've had 314 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:11,000 Speaker 1: to clant local declines in vaccine coverage and multiple areas. 315 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,320 Speaker 1: We've identified at least fifteen urban hotspots where kids aren't 316 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: getting vaccinated and usually see measles as the first breakthrough 317 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,199 Speaker 1: infection and that's because it's the most highly contagious of 318 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,879 Speaker 1: all of them. So on average, of a single individual 319 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 1: gets measles, twelve to eighteen others will become infected, and 320 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:30,760 Speaker 1: typically those will be infants under the age of twelve months, 321 00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 1: not yet not old enough to get vaccinated, and they're 322 00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 1: the ones who wind up hospitalized with me pneumonia and worse. 323 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: I remember the pink drops in my mouth in first 324 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:44,520 Speaker 1: grade and the mother's crying over the miracle of moving 325 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,640 Speaker 1: on from polio. Why do we fear measles? I had 326 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: measles and I got better. It was no big deal. 327 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 1: Why is measles a big deal for those infants? Well, 328 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 1: for many, it's okay. But what happens is when when 329 00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,679 Speaker 1: you get measles, up to one and four can be 330 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:03,280 Speaker 1: hot hospitalized and the one the two things you worry 331 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:06,399 Speaker 1: about are what's called measles pneumonia, which is what kills 332 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:10,880 Speaker 1: you and measles andencephalitis, which can cause deafness and permanent 333 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 1: neurologic injury. So people forget that a couple of decades ago, 334 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: diasles was the single leading killer of children globally. It's 335 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:21,760 Speaker 1: a bad actor. What is the mechanism of society and 336 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:26,399 Speaker 1: culture and politics to get us back to November eleventh 337 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 1: of two thousand two. So that's a great question, and 338 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 1: I've identified a three part plan. So the first part 339 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 1: is we have to think about how we're going to 340 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 1: dismantle this media jargon, not this media empire. The anti 341 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 1: vaccine movement owns the Internet now with almost five hundred 342 00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: anti vaccine websites. They've weaponized Amazon. Amazon is not the lingual, 343 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:50,280 Speaker 1: single largest promoter of phony anti vaccine books. So what 344 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 1: do you want Jeff Bezos to do? I wanted to 345 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,679 Speaker 1: shut down those phony anti vaccine books. He has to 346 00:19:56,720 --> 00:20:00,239 Speaker 1: stop promoting them, just like any bookstore and has right 347 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 1: to choose which books they're not going to promote. He 348 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 1: needs to do the same, and the same with the UH, 349 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 1: same with Facebook as well. Shut down those anti vaccine websites. 350 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 1: But then there's a political arm to this as well. 351 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,439 Speaker 1: What happens now we've got UH in a couple of 352 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 1: dozen states we allowed non medical vaccine exemptions. We have 353 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 1: to close those. So we have to do with what's 354 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,959 Speaker 1: been done in California and Mississippi and West Virginia. Say, 355 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:26,679 Speaker 1: if you want to send your kids to public school, 356 00:20:27,000 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 1: you have to have your child vaccinated. And lastly, we 357 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 1: need to rebuild that pro vaccine advocacy. Peace to this, 358 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,640 Speaker 1: we're not hearing from our elected leaders. We're not hearing 359 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 1: from our public health federallytion. We heard from the President 360 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,040 Speaker 1: the United States a few days ago. I mean, I 361 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: guess he can be more vocal about it, but certainly 362 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 1: he has stepped up. What do you need to see 363 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 1: from Congress. Well, we need to see from Congress is 364 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 1: to enact that that three part that three part scheme. 365 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: They need to be with their more confessional hearing two 366 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,200 Speaker 1: months ago. But so far there's just been optics, no 367 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,680 Speaker 1: no real no real tangible actions Peter tests. Where this 368 00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,560 Speaker 1: folks Uh, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine. 369 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 1: This at Baylor's College of Medicine, Dr. Hotels. At the 370 00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 1: beginning of the interview, you talked about how measles is. First, 371 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:14,719 Speaker 1: this goes back in folks Um, I had the honor 372 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:18,440 Speaker 1: of studying under Egon stark um on Pseudomonas or a 373 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 1: Junus huh anaerobic bacteria and the whole hospital stephy Leococcus 374 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:27,159 Speaker 1: thing as well. But we go on from measles to 375 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:31,200 Speaker 1: other things. What are the other things that are there 376 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 1: if a select group of people are anti vaccine. Well, 377 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,639 Speaker 1: so we're seeing sort of three battle ground vaccines that 378 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:42,120 Speaker 1: the anti vaccine lobbyists singled out. So measles is one 379 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 1: of them that's done as the measles most rebel of vaccine. 380 00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 1: The other one the flu vaccine. So we had a 381 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty unvaccinated children dye in America last year 382 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,439 Speaker 1: because they weren't vaccinated despite recommendation. So you're getting a 383 00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:58,159 Speaker 1: lot of phony information about flu. And then there's the 384 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:02,399 Speaker 1: HPV vaccine or the paploma virus vaccine for cervical cancer. 385 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 1: We've got a whole generation of girls and women not 386 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,480 Speaker 1: getting vaccinated, and therefore we're condemning them to uh suffering 387 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:13,040 Speaker 1: reservo for cancer totally unnecessarily. The fear here almost like 388 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 1: as we go back to diseases of our great grandparents 389 00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:20,800 Speaker 1: and our great great grandparents, can we get back to 390 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:28,880 Speaker 1: horrific immediate death like typhoid and other microbial diseases. Well, 391 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,919 Speaker 1: the good news is that our society has advanced in 392 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 1: terms of levels of sanitation and reductions and poverty, but 393 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 1: we still have a lot of pockets of poverty and 394 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,639 Speaker 1: still a lot of neglected diseases in this country, and 395 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,520 Speaker 1: if we stop vaccinating, a number of them will come back. 396 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 1: So we've allowed ourselves to become place, and we have 397 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: allowed this phony misinformation campaign to become dominant on the 398 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 1: internet right now, and we need to we need to 399 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 1: stop it. We need to say we're not going to 400 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:59,240 Speaker 1: do this. Are what is their case on autism? Because 401 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 1: you know, Peter Hotels can try out the math, but 402 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:08,080 Speaker 1: help us with the research base that says no, it 403 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 1: doesn't lead to autism. I mean, what is the clarity 404 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:15,199 Speaker 1: of the research there? So thanks for asking that. I 405 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,159 Speaker 1: just wrote a new book because I'm not only a 406 00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: vaccine scientist and the pediatrician, but I also have an 407 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:24,760 Speaker 1: adult daughter with autism and intellectual disabilities, and just wrote 408 00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 1: this book called Vaccines did Not Cause Rachel's Autism, which 409 00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: in a very straightforward way provides the evidence and studies 410 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,679 Speaker 1: of over a million children showing there's no, absolutely no 411 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 1: link between any vaccine and autism. And the anti vactors 412 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:39,920 Speaker 1: keep moving the goalpost. First he said it was the 413 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 1: music SNNs rebella vaccine. Then Bobby Kennedy came along and said, no, no, 414 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 1: we didn't mean MMR. We meant cimarus all that used 415 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 1: to be in vaccines. And then it was spacing vaccines 416 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,280 Speaker 1: close together. It was aluminum c You play this kind 417 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 1: of pyrrent game of vaccine whack a mole, and then 418 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: and then I go into detail explaining what autism is 419 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 1: and how we have at least ninety nine genes identified 420 00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 1: uh the cause of autism, and it's all involved early 421 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,440 Speaker 1: fetal brain development, well before kids receive vaccines. Peter, you're 422 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: in the heart of this one final question when you 423 00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 1: run into people that are anti vexers in that Are 424 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 1: they just anti science? Are they are they almost anti 425 00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 1: deductive medicine and anti everything we did from you know 426 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:30,960 Speaker 1: Newton onwards? Are they just anti rational thought? Well, they 427 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: fall into two groups I find. I mean, the majority 428 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:37,119 Speaker 1: of parents mothers are not deeply dug in. They've just 429 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 1: been so overwhelmed with misinformation that they're scared and so 430 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:42,760 Speaker 1: you need to sit down with them and explain the 431 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,680 Speaker 1: information and they'll vaccinate their child. Then there's another small percentage, 432 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 1: and I don't know what the real number is, where 433 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 1: there's ten fIF who are deeply dug in and they 434 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,919 Speaker 1: believe conspiracy theories. Those individuals are hard to reach and 435 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: for that we have legislation we have to we have 436 00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,919 Speaker 1: to close those non vaccine exemptions. Where are we on measles. 437 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,000 Speaker 1: Let's go back to the immediate Now, we're going into 438 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 1: May as measles as the summer season thing is an 439 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,720 Speaker 1: autumnal thing. What do we expect the next number of weeks? 440 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 1: Dr Hotess, Well, we have we have two opposing forces, 441 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:13,959 Speaker 1: a good news bad news story. The good news is, 442 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,360 Speaker 1: historically when we've had measles epidemics pre two thousand two, 443 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,159 Speaker 1: as you point out in America, UM, they tended to 444 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 1: peek in the spring and then we'll reduce dramatically declined 445 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 1: as we reach the warmer summer months. So so maybe 446 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 1: there's some hope. The bad news is that as bad 447 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 1: as things are in America, things are even worse than Europe. 448 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 1: So Europe's a train wreck right now, especially in Italy 449 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:38,640 Speaker 1: and France, in Greece. So with all that summer European travel, 450 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,119 Speaker 1: we're going to be reintroducing measles into the United States 451 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,399 Speaker 1: from Europe. And since we have that big cohort of 452 00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:48,640 Speaker 1: unvaccinated kids, Um, there's risks that this could still be outgoing, 453 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 1: so so we'll just have to see which force plays out. 454 00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 1: Peter Hotest, thank you so much for the magical path 455 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:59,439 Speaker 1: in the study of microbiology and Virology out of Yale 456 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:04,399 Speaker 1: Rockefell University and while Cornell Medical College, Peter Rotez of 457 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:23,679 Speaker 1: Baylor University, Craig mofat with us right now, Moffatt Nathanson, 458 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 1: He and Michael Nathanson just do a spectacular job with 459 00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,920 Speaker 1: all this modern stuff we're dealing with. UM and Craig 460 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 1: of course knows we're in massive spoiler alert right now 461 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 1: on Game of Thrones in the Avengers as well. So Craig, 462 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:40,879 Speaker 1: I want to go write to your research report, and 463 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 1: as usual, you have a sentence that would surprise. It's 464 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 1: a good time to be cable discuss that. Well, Hey, Tom, 465 00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:56,359 Speaker 1: how are you? You know? Too many people still confuse 466 00:26:56,520 --> 00:27:02,160 Speaker 1: cable uh companies with media companies, and look, cable companies 467 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,760 Speaker 1: are not media companies. Cable companies or infrastructure providers. And 468 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,680 Speaker 1: while all of this stuff is swirling around about where 469 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 1: are you going to get your video and uh and 470 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,360 Speaker 1: is it going to be packaged this way or that way? 471 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:17,439 Speaker 1: Is it going to be aggregated by this company or 472 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,560 Speaker 1: that company. All of that misses the broader point that 473 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,359 Speaker 1: it still has to travel over physical infrastructure, and the 474 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 1: cable operators have the best infrastructure. And and that's what 475 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:28,919 Speaker 1: you're seeing right now for the cable company and in 476 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,399 Speaker 1: the cable stocks, by the way, which have started the 477 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 1: year very strong, because people, i think are starting to 478 00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,800 Speaker 1: get more comfortable with the idea that that cable infrastructure 479 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:45,120 Speaker 1: still wins. Paul Sweeney Comcast tenure track record, Cable's dead. 480 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:50,679 Speaker 1: Brian Roberts. Yeah, they've done this phenomenal job managing their 481 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 1: capital structure and their strategy. So Craig spending a couple 482 00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:55,919 Speaker 1: of minutes on Comcast. You know, we think about just 483 00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 1: over the last couple of years, how much the landscape 484 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,600 Speaker 1: has changed, with a T and T buying Time Warner 485 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:05,440 Speaker 1: and you know, Disney doubling down on content with Century Fox. Um, 486 00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 1: do you think Comcast has the assets it needs now 487 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 1: to compete going over the next five years or so. Well, 488 00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:17,320 Speaker 1: it's a really interesting question because, um, the you know, 489 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 1: Comcast used to be a cable company. Comcast is not 490 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 1: a cable company anymore. The cable side of its business 491 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,879 Speaker 1: UM is doing very well, as I just talked about, 492 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,080 Speaker 1: but that's only half of the business. And on the 493 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,840 Speaker 1: other side of the business, it perhaps is a bit 494 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,120 Speaker 1: more challenging to figure out whether they have the right 495 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:38,320 Speaker 1: set of assets UM the path that Disney laid out 496 00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,479 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago now UM in their directed 497 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:45,040 Speaker 1: consumer strategy. I think that the takeaway that almost everyone 498 00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 1: had after listening to Disney's what I referred to in 499 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:50,400 Speaker 1: the report as as a sort of the shock and 500 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:54,680 Speaker 1: awe analyst day, was that nobody else can can do 501 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,520 Speaker 1: the same strategy as Disney because nobody else's Disney. Nobody 502 00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:02,960 Speaker 1: else has the Avengers, no body else has the Princesses, 503 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:06,280 Speaker 1: and nobody else has Star Wars, and nobody else has 504 00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,960 Speaker 1: the collection of assets that Disney has. And so everyone 505 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 1: is struggling with how do you respond to a future 506 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,880 Speaker 1: where Disney, because of their unique set of assets, can 507 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,120 Speaker 1: go direct to the consumer in a very powerful way. 508 00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,640 Speaker 1: But arguably no one else can can mimic that strategy. 509 00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 1: What's left for everyone else? And it's a real question 510 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,280 Speaker 1: for Comcast. When you think about Brian Roberts over the year, 511 00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 1: he really has been aggressive in many and deals he's 512 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:35,160 Speaker 1: done and on deals he's missed. I mean, we all 513 00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,520 Speaker 1: remember a long time ago he made a move on 514 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:41,000 Speaker 1: the Walt Disney Company itself. What moves do you think 515 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,640 Speaker 1: that Brian Roberts and the board has to the extent 516 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 1: that it wants to be one of those big, big 517 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:50,240 Speaker 1: global players going forward. Well, it's a good question that 518 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:55,720 Speaker 1: the last big acquisitions guy gives them a foothold in 519 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,160 Speaker 1: in Europe and the rest of the world. But they 520 00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 1: haven't really articulated this strategy that they're going to pursue 521 00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:03,040 Speaker 1: and what it is they want to do with it. 522 00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 1: They've made a case that it's that it's a good business. Um, 523 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 1: I think what investors have struggled with is, even if 524 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 1: you do think it's a good business, it's hard to 525 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,880 Speaker 1: argue that Comcast didn't significantly over pay for it. And 526 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,520 Speaker 1: so you've got to have some vision for how do 527 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,600 Speaker 1: you put all these pieces together into something that's special 528 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,440 Speaker 1: And frankly, I'm I'm a little puzzled with that. I 529 00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:30,480 Speaker 1: struggle with the non cable side of the Comcast business. CRAIGT. Monflet, 530 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:33,120 Speaker 1: You've been really good on a T and T. I'm 531 00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,080 Speaker 1: gonna say collegiately, it's been a train wreck. Maybe that's 532 00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,040 Speaker 1: a little bit too harsh as well. What's the mandate 533 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 1: for the leadership right now? Well, it's a T and 534 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:47,520 Speaker 1: T has got um that even their problems have problems 535 00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 1: and um And it's it's going to be a struggle 536 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 1: to put the pieces together that they've put that they've 537 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 1: assembled Warner Media and Direct TV and the wireless and 538 00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:06,080 Speaker 1: and wireline telecom businesses together in in a strategically coherent way. 539 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 1: And while you're doing that, not to damage the assets 540 00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:11,200 Speaker 1: you just bought. You know, I think one of the 541 00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,400 Speaker 1: real questions facing a T and T with Warner Media 542 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,480 Speaker 1: and um and and the assets that they bought from 543 00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,080 Speaker 1: Time Warner is sure, it's clear that you need to 544 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,480 Speaker 1: do something strategically to knit all those pieces together. But 545 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 1: how do you do that without causing an exodus of 546 00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:31,239 Speaker 1: talent that damages the assets so much that that you're 547 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:34,640 Speaker 1: knitting together just kind of hollow shells of what these 548 00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,360 Speaker 1: companies used to be. And you've you've really seen some 549 00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 1: troubling signs of some important talent leaving those businesses. Already 550 00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:44,440 Speaker 1: we've talked about this, what are yours? I mean, I I, folks, 551 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:47,080 Speaker 1: I'm so privileged to do this. I've got three giants. 552 00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:50,080 Speaker 1: I'm talking to Michael Nathanson and with us today, Craig 553 00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:53,480 Speaker 1: Mofat Moffatt Nathanson, and a guy named Paul Sweeney as well. 554 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,000 Speaker 1: To both of you, Paul Sweeney and to Craig Moffatt, 555 00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:01,000 Speaker 1: it's a six percent dividend, it's a stock. To an 556 00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,960 Speaker 1: amateur like me, that's illogical. Paul, when did they cut 557 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 1: the dividend? Uh? Yeah, I'll defer that one to Craig. 558 00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,400 Speaker 1: But I'll tell you the issue for that, Craig raised 559 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 1: very well with this big acquisition at the time Warner 560 00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 1: is the talent. Tom. When I were talking earlier, I mean, 561 00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:16,520 Speaker 1: how do you keep the talent? Will you pay them? 562 00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,280 Speaker 1: But Craig, I mean, we've seen some of the heads 563 00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:22,880 Speaker 1: of Turner, the heads of HBO, the Crown Jewels walk 564 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 1: out the door. That really has to be concerning, doesn't it? 565 00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:30,160 Speaker 1: Sure does, Sure does? And and and Tom, You're exactly right. Look, 566 00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 1: the reason the dividend yield is so high is because 567 00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:37,040 Speaker 1: people just don't believe it's sustainable. Um and so there is, 568 00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,480 Speaker 1: for the first time in a T and T a 569 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,920 Speaker 1: real sense that this is now a risky proposition. Um. 570 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:46,239 Speaker 1: You know, remember all of us grew up in an 571 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:48,960 Speaker 1: age where A T and T was the safest of 572 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:52,760 Speaker 1: the blue chips, and you bought it as a defensive stock. 573 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,280 Speaker 1: I think it was really interesting during the fourth quarter, 574 00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 1: when the market was starting to discount recession risk um, 575 00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,880 Speaker 1: that T and T started to trade as a cyclical 576 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:04,120 Speaker 1: for the first time ever. It was up on up 577 00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,480 Speaker 1: days and down on down days, which is sounds the 578 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,880 Speaker 1: way most trade, but the opposite of the way a 579 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,360 Speaker 1: T and T is historically traded. In that sense, I 580 00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 1: think I was gonna say, I think people have figured 581 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,680 Speaker 1: it out right that if if this company hits a 582 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 1: recession before they have meaningfully delevered the balance sheet, they're 583 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,360 Speaker 1: in real double um. And and that's what people are 584 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:31,440 Speaker 1: struggling with. Is Mr Stevenson's tenure It I mean, he's 585 00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:35,120 Speaker 1: been there for eleven years, nine years, ten years? Is 586 00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:40,280 Speaker 1: this is this it like deliver now or it's That's 587 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,520 Speaker 1: certainly not a message that I've heard from from any source, 588 00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:46,560 Speaker 1: So I would be speculating, um. But it's it's fair 589 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:50,120 Speaker 1: to say that investors are frustrated with the performance of 590 00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:54,080 Speaker 1: a T and T shares, which have have radically underperformed 591 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:59,000 Speaker 1: the market over virtually any time period for the last one, three, five, 592 00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:01,719 Speaker 1: ten years. Craig, I'll say it on air so all 593 00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,280 Speaker 1: our listeners worldwide. No, we would kill to get you 594 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:08,400 Speaker 1: and Michael Nathanson in Mafatt Nathanson in our studio together 595 00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,960 Speaker 1: as we can arrange that you you're the two of 596 00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,239 Speaker 1: you and Paul Sweeney, that would be lights out on media. 597 00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 1: Craig Moffatt is with MafA Nathanson. Thanks for listening to 598 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:26,480 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on 599 00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:32,399 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 600 00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,719 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can 601 00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,960 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.