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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.

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Speaker 2: What is up, Drag Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre,

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Speaker 2: Straight Foyer for Thursday, July seventeenth. It might surprise you guys,

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Speaker 2: but I think we are approaching the five year mark.

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Speaker 3: It's possible of this podcast five years.

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Speaker 2: I just remember we started during COVID, and obviously COVID's

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Speaker 2: like five years and a couple months old now, and

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Speaker 2: I've got to look back up in the files to

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Speaker 2: see when I came on. But man, I can't believe

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Speaker 2: it's been five years or about five years. But we

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Speaker 2: have a phenomenal podcast. If this is the five year anniversary,

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Speaker 2: it's not Aaron Shots, the guy who you was at

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Speaker 2: Football Outsiders. We're starting our heavy football previews now where

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Speaker 2: we just talk about the league, we talk about fantasy gambling.

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Speaker 2: You're gonna love Aaron Shots and stuff. Remember he's the

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Speaker 2: guy who created DVOA. If you're gambling, you obviously use that.

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Speaker 2: And he's got a lot of fantasy at a site

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Speaker 2: FTN Fantasy now, so you're like Aaron shottz our chat.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: Two other little pieces of sports news went down yesterday.

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Speaker 3: And then the SPI's happened.

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Speaker 2: I'm not really familiar with this guy, Shane Gillis, comedian.

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Speaker 3: I had to look him up. I knew I knew

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Speaker 3: the name.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, he was the guy who got hired on SNL

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Speaker 2: and I guess then he got canceled for some old

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Speaker 2: jokes that were racist. Anyway, Shane Gillis never seen him live.

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Speaker 2: That guy pretty much crushed the intro. He's not going

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Speaker 2: to be invited back because it was, you know, pushing

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Speaker 2: the boundaries and then way way beyond. I thought it

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Speaker 2: was funny. I think we need more of that, like

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Speaker 2: this is sports, let's not take ourselves too seriously. So

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Speaker 2: I greatly enjoyed it. I'm sure you guys have seen

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Speaker 2: some of the clips online. I would highly suggest looking

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Speaker 2: into this guy. Shane Gillis monologue. He had some jokes

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Speaker 2: about Caitlin Clark obviously, some political.

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Speaker 3: Jokes or some Belichick stuff.

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Speaker 2: I mean, listen, it wasn't quite the Tom Brady roast,

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Speaker 2: but it was, you know, for something that appeared on TV,

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Speaker 2: about as as close as you're gonna get in the

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Speaker 2: sports world. So and then the other two items were

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Speaker 2: the Commanders landed Von Miller. But that's not a bad get. Interestingly,

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Speaker 2: this happened well after we spoke to Aaron Shots and

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Speaker 2: we talked about it.

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Speaker 3: They don't have a pass rush.

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Speaker 2: So the von Miller thing dovetails beautifully into the interview.

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Speaker 2: The other is on the NBA side, and that is

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Speaker 2: Bradley Beal.

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Speaker 1: Ugh.

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Speaker 2: I was all fired up for him to go to Lakers,

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Speaker 2: and I gotta be honest, him going to the Clippers,

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Speaker 2: which we talked about, is kind of devastating for Lakers fans, like,

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Speaker 2: I don't know what your movie is now, you ain't

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Speaker 2: getting kaminga. There just aren't a lot of guys out there,

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Speaker 2: and Bradley Beal would have been perfect. It seems like

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Speaker 2: he was kind of sort of given a handshake deal,

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Speaker 2: you'll be the starter. I mean, you know, people are

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Speaker 2: really down on him.

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Speaker 3: And I get that. You know, they didn't even make

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Speaker 3: the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: J What are you talking about?

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Speaker 3: He's washed?

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Speaker 2: Okay, that's fine, He's not that old. He does have

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Speaker 2: an injury history. But this is a guy who can

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Speaker 2: get you buckets and at five million dollars a year,

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Speaker 2: I can almost guarantee you when you talk pound four

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Speaker 2: pound best contract. When it comes to like points, assists,

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Speaker 2: rebounds and stuff. He's going to probably be top three

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Speaker 2: in the league, if not number one, because he's only

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Speaker 2: at five million a year. The Clippers bench will be

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Speaker 2: incredibly deep. Now, I mean, I hate to say it.

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Speaker 2: You know it's Houston, Denver, OKC, and the Clippers. Those

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Speaker 2: are on paper clearly the top four. Then you've got

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Speaker 2: the Lakers. Then you've got the Warriors because they still

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Speaker 2: have Steph Curry. I think a lot of people love Minnesota.

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Speaker 2: I'm not as high on them.

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Speaker 3: I thought the.

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Speaker 2: Well, we'll see, I'm not as high on Minnesota. Dallas

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Speaker 2: when they get Kyrie back, the Spurs are going to

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Speaker 2: be really, really good.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be a difficult year in the West. Uh,

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Speaker 3: Lakers gotta be frustrated.

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Speaker 2: Anyways, Without further ado, let's get to our guest, Aaron

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Speaker 2: Shatz of FTN Fantasy.

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Speaker 1: You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows

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Speaker 1: everything when it comes to sports.

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Speaker 4: I know what sports fans want, but for.

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Speaker 1: Everything he doesn't, he knows a guy who does.

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Speaker 4: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a

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Speaker 4: guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's welcome in to straight fire.

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Speaker 2: A guy we talked to multiple times a year about football,

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Speaker 2: usually off season in season. I mean, listen to this

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Speaker 2: guy is the Dvoa King. He's the chief analytics officer

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Speaker 2: for FTN Fantasy Aaron shots erin, how you doing, man.

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Speaker 4: I'm good, man, I made it through another book writing season.

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Speaker 4: I'm ready for the off season to be over and

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Speaker 4: I'm ready to have some football.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's July. Is that time?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 3: You get the MLB All Star Game and an NBA.

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Speaker 2: Free agency one dot, and then the camps are opening

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Speaker 2: up here in about a week, and everybody wants to know, Oh,

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Speaker 2: who's gonna be good this year? Fantasy gambling, Oh, super Bowl?

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Speaker 2: Everybody gets all excited. So you've put in the work. Okay,

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Speaker 2: Usually I take like a little break off NFL in

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Speaker 2: June because there's not much happening. And now you've looked

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Speaker 2: at all the depth charts, You've analyzed all the moves,

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Speaker 2: the late Aaron Rodgers move. I don't think that moves

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Speaker 2: the needle for Pittsburgh. But I'm curious where do you

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Speaker 2: stand now heading into this season? Big picture around the league?

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Speaker 2: Are we seeing a changing of the guard? Is the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs run over?

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Speaker 3: Do you expect it to continue. Eagles repeat, where are

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Speaker 3: you at the top of the league?

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Speaker 4: I mean, I will say that teams that can't win

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Speaker 4: in the playoffs can't win in the playoffs until the

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Speaker 4: year they finally do. One of these years, somebody is

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Speaker 4: going to break the chief string and it's probably going

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Speaker 4: to be either Buffalo or Baltimore. If you look at

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Speaker 4: our DVOA stat that's the main stat that we use,

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Speaker 4: which looks at every play and compares it to an

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Speaker 4: average play for opponent. The best team since nineteen seventy

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Speaker 4: eight over a five year period to not make the

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl is the Bills over the last five years.

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Speaker 4: The second best team to not make a Super Bowl

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Speaker 4: is the Ravens over the last five years. So the

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Speaker 4: Chiefs have really kept these two really good teams from

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Speaker 4: finally making it, and the odds are one of them

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Speaker 4: will finally make it this year.

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Speaker 3: So do you think the Chiefs take a big step back?

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Speaker 1: Is it?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think they won eleven to zero, one

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Speaker 2: score game, some ridiculous number. However, they didn't really have

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Speaker 2: a wide receiver room. But at the same time, like

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Speaker 2: Travis Kelcey, started to look his age in the postseason,

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Speaker 2: I'm on record, I think the Chiefs can miss the playoffs.

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Speaker 3: I think the AFC is absolutely better. I'm with you.

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Speaker 2: I like the Bills a lot, I like the Ravens,

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Speaker 2: don't love them, but I see a big step back

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Speaker 2: for the Chiefs. I know that sounds crazy because they

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Speaker 2: have Mahomes and Reid, but do you think that they

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Speaker 2: are better than last year as good? I mean, both

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Speaker 2: their tackles huge question heading into the season.

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Speaker 4: I think they're about as good as last year, but

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Speaker 4: they're not going to have the luck. They're not going

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Speaker 4: to have the other quarterback drop the snap at the

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Speaker 4: end of the game and field goal, you know, all

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Speaker 4: that weird stuff that happened with them last year. So

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Speaker 4: they're not going fifteen and two again. But I do

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Speaker 4: think that the better wide receiver room, you know, assuming

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Speaker 4: that Rashie ris it doesn't get suspended for the legal

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Speaker 4: problems that he has, I think that that does help

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Speaker 4: counter the decline of Travis Kelcey and the questions that

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Speaker 4: left tackle and Mahomes. You know, papers over a lot

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Speaker 4: of problems, and the coaching staff is fantastic, and I

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Speaker 4: do think they're still the favorite in the AFC West.

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Speaker 4: But I don't think they're the favorite in the AFC

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Speaker 4: entirely interesting.

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Speaker 3: AFC West got better, Raiders got a real coach.

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Speaker 2: Chargers had a really good offseason, I thought, And the

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Speaker 2: Denver Broncos I'm seeing, I don't know. I'm curious what

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Speaker 2: your numbers say they're supposed to have the best defense

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Speaker 2: in the league this year.

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Speaker 4: Are surprisingly high on Denver and surprisingly low on the Chargers.

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Speaker 4: We see the Chargers defense really coming back to the pack,

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Speaker 4: a lot of regression that they really improved last year.

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Speaker 4: Some of that was the coordinator, Jesse Minter, and so

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Speaker 4: certainly Minter could be having more of an effect than

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Speaker 4: our numbers can analyze, and the Chargers defense will be

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Speaker 4: better than we think it is. You know, I think

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Speaker 4: the receivers are you know, McConkie's good, but it's the

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Speaker 4: same questions about all the other receivers that the Chargers

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Speaker 4: always seem to have. Whereas our numbers love the Broncos.

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Speaker 4: I think the Broncos defense is our number one projected defense.

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Speaker 4: You know, there's so many great players on that defense.

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Speaker 4: Peyton did a great job of managing bow Knicks and

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Speaker 4: making boon Nicks look good on the offensive side of

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Speaker 4: the ball. We're very high on the Broncos this year.

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Speaker 2: Wow, when you say very high, is this a team

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Speaker 2: like if you were doing like a six pack of

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Speaker 2: Super Bowl teams with the Broncos be there or not quite?

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Speaker 4: No, I don't think think they're quite that high. They're

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Speaker 4: but we like them a lot. It's definitely surprising the

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Speaker 4: gap between the Broncos and the Chargers and our projections,

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Speaker 4: given that they were basically the same last year.

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Speaker 3: That's interesting.

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Speaker 2: So they have a really easy schedule, that amazing defense.

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Speaker 2: Week one, they face a rookie quarterback cam Ward. Week two,

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Speaker 2: we don't even know what the hell. The Colts have

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Speaker 2: a quarterback of Daniel Jones Anthony Richardson.

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Speaker 3: So you're looking at a two and zero start. They'll

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Speaker 3: be favorite in both those games.

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Speaker 2: Then it's the Chargers and then they step up Bengals, Eagles.

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Speaker 4: Overall, we have them with an average schedule.

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Speaker 2: Interesting first schedules. Who has the easiest and who has

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Speaker 2: the hardest? Where any teams that jump out you there?

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Speaker 4: The easiest schedule is the forty nine Ers by far.

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Speaker 4: It's one of the reasons we're really high on them

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Speaker 4: this year. And the hardest schedule is the Giants followed

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Speaker 4: by the Eagles, which is one of the reasons we're

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Speaker 4: not as high as consensus on the Eagles repeating this year.

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Speaker 4: In fact, this is kind of a surprise. We ended

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Speaker 4: up as the Washington Commanders as our favorites in the

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Speaker 4: NFC East this year.

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Speaker 3: WHOA, And that's mostly schedule dependent, No.

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Speaker 4: No, it's also based on the idea that we think

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Speaker 4: that the Commander's defense is going to be better. We

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Speaker 4: think it's going to be kind of average, and we

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Speaker 4: think that the Eagles defense is not going to be

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Speaker 4: as good because defense is much less consistent than offense,

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Speaker 4: and their defense was so good last year. Their offense

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Speaker 4: was only thirteenth in DVOA during the regular season. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: that includes a couple of games without hurts, and they

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Speaker 4: were a little bit better than that if you you know,

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Speaker 4: don't include those games. They looked so good in the

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl. That's not the Eagles offense that we saw

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Speaker 4: for most of the season. So if their defense comes

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Speaker 4: back to the pack a little bit and their offense

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Speaker 4: is about the same as last year, and then they

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Speaker 4: had this very tough schedule, we see them kind of

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Speaker 4: you know, more as like the fourth or fifth best

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Speaker 4: team in the NFC rather than the best team.

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Speaker 3: So let's dig into that.

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Speaker 2: So why do you think there's such a disconnect between

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Speaker 2: the Eagles regular season offense, which you said was thirteenth,

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Speaker 2: and then in the Super Bowl and then NFC Championship

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Speaker 2: they scored like what forty eight fifty points or something. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: it does a lot of it have to do with, hey,

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Speaker 2: let's just look at the opponent in front of us

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Speaker 2: and run the ball down their throats with sick.

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Speaker 4: Some of it is the Commander's defense was terrible last year,

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Speaker 4: especially against the run. Some of it is just I

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Speaker 4: think they just happen to have two good games. I mean,

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Speaker 4: sometimes you just wake up on the right side of

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Speaker 4: the bed, and if it happens to happen during the playoffs,

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Speaker 4: you're in pretty good shape because that's when you want

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Speaker 4: to have your best games. But I think people don't

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Speaker 4: realize defensively how much talent they've lost. We have the

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Speaker 4: Eagles with the most lost defensive veteran talent. We have

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Speaker 4: Miami second. They're depending on a lot of guys that

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Speaker 4: we believe in, guys like Moroajomo and Jylex Hunt. And Ringo,

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Speaker 4: but we don't know if those guys could be as

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Speaker 4: good as Josh Sweat and Milton Williams and Darius Slay.

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Speaker 4: We think they're good, but we don't know they're good,

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Speaker 4: So you have to expect the defense to come back

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Speaker 4: a bit.

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Speaker 3: Hmmm. That is that.

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Speaker 2: I would say that's one of the hotter takes I've heard,

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Speaker 2: because offensively, they've got a great offensive line, skill position,

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Speaker 2: guys all back. I don't love how Hurts has a

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Speaker 2: new offensive coordinator every year, but they still if you

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Speaker 2: look at their top end talent on defense, I mean

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Speaker 2: Jalen Carter, Jordan David Zack Bond like, I'm not seeing

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Speaker 2: any weaknesses year.

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Speaker 3: That is interesting.

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Speaker 4: The Eagles offense. I feel like people act as if

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Speaker 4: October and November never happened. Nobody talked about the Eagles

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Speaker 4: in November and October as one of the best offenses

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Speaker 4: in the league. They were really good during the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: That was not one of the best offenses in the league.

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Speaker 4: Despite the fact that they have a j Brown, despite

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Speaker 4: the fact that they have DeVante Smith, despite what Saquon

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Speaker 4: Barkley did in the offensive line, it simply was not

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Speaker 4: one of the five best offenses in the league last year. Defensively,

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Speaker 4: I absolutely agree with you. There's a ton of talent,

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Speaker 4: it's just defenses just is inconsistent, and you just can't expect.

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Speaker 4: They were from Week six onward they were like one

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Speaker 4: of the top ten defenses of the last forty years.

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Speaker 4: They're just not going to do that again. They need

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Speaker 4: like that was from week six onward they were amazing,

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Speaker 4: and you just have to expect they're going to come

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Speaker 4: back to the back a bit, especially given the guys

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Speaker 4: they lost.

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Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

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Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio

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Speaker 1: listen live.

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Speaker 3: I thought I heard you say Washington's defense is much improved.

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Speaker 3: If I'm wrong, call me on it. But Bobby Wagner

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Speaker 3: just turned thirty five. Yeah, I don't a lot.

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Speaker 4: We don't know who their edge rushers are.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, dedrich Wise and Torrent's arms, I mean not great.

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Speaker 4: If Lotimore plays the way he did in the first

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Speaker 4: half of the year for the Saints, that is a

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Speaker 4: huge upgrade. Their secondary was really really bad last year.

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Speaker 4: If Amos is good, the rookie that's an upgrade too.

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Speaker 4: They were better against the run on first down, then

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Speaker 4: second and third. That tends to carry over a little

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Speaker 4: bit more to the future. So we have them with

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Speaker 4: an average defense, not a good defense. I don't think

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Speaker 4: they've got a good defense, and I agree. I don't

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Speaker 4: know where the pass rush is coming from other than

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Speaker 4: Frankie Luvu. But we think they can improve their defense

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Speaker 4: to average. And whereas the Eagles have the second hardest schedule,

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Speaker 4: the Commanders have the twelfth part of schedule because of

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Speaker 4: who finished first versus second in certain divisions last year.

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Speaker 2: So I'm just looking at Washington last year. I remember

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Speaker 2: they had such a stretch where they were just pulling

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Speaker 2: games out of their rear, end beating the Giants by

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Speaker 2: three that memorable.

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Speaker 3: Bank Night football.

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Speaker 2: They are what the Chicago craziness? Another five point went

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Speaker 2: over the New York Giants. It looks like they were

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Speaker 2: like what nine in three and one score games.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we think they're gonna the underlying We think the

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Speaker 4: underlying stats for the Commanders will improve. Their luck will

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Speaker 4: probably not be as good, but the underlying stats will improve.

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Speaker 4: We don't see any reason to think that Daniels will

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Speaker 4: come back to the pack, although it's not like we

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Speaker 4: think he'll be better. The thing about rookie quarterbacks that

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Speaker 4: play as well as Daniels did last year is that

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Speaker 4: they don't tend to get better in their second year

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Speaker 4: because they're already so good. The one thing that is

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Speaker 4: going to regress. They were absurd on fourth downs last year,

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Speaker 4: like the best fourth down team basically ever, and there's

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Speaker 4: no way that that's going to continue.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, elsewhere in the NFC, I have the Lions regressing.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a decent bet to think they could

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Speaker 2: fall out and miss the playoffs, losing both coordinators. Still

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Speaker 2: a lot of defensive questions. Where are you on Detroit,

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Speaker 2: which I believe was fifteen and two last year?

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Speaker 4: We really like Detroit because they were so injured on

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Speaker 4: defense last year. Now they were very not injured on offense.

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Speaker 4: They were very healthy on offense. So the offense is

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Speaker 4: going to have more injuries and well, the loss of

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Speaker 4: brag now is big, but the defense should be better

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Speaker 4: with better health and especially getting Aiden Hutchinson back. I

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Speaker 4: do worry a little bit about the change in the coordinators.

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Speaker 4: I mean no disrespect to Aaron Glenn when I say

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Speaker 4: I worry a little bit more about the loss of

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Speaker 4: Ben Johnson that I do, Glenn, just because we've seen

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Speaker 4: the difference between Jared Goff with a coordinator who knows

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Speaker 4: how to use him and Jared Goff with a coordinator

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Speaker 4: who doesn't know how to use him. And we don't

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Speaker 4: quite know yet about the new offensive coordinator. But overall,

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Speaker 4: we feel like the Lions are still going to be

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Speaker 4: a top team in the NFC.

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Speaker 2: So where are you in the NFC North, which is stack?

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Speaker 2: Do you have the Lions winning it?

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Speaker 4: I have the Lions. Yeah, I like the Lions to

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Speaker 4: win it, but I think the forty nine ers are

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Speaker 4: also going to be really top. We really like Washington

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Speaker 4: and Philly is still going to be really good.

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Speaker 2: I went on you know the herd and was prattling

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Speaker 2: on about the Minnesota Vikings.

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Speaker 3: I love the coaching staff, I love the talent. It's

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Speaker 3: all about JJ McCarthy and I'm a believer in McCarthy.

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Speaker 3: Where do you have the Vikings this year?

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Speaker 4: Just Gid, It's funny, we're so different. Our projections are

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Speaker 4: very different than your opinions. We have lower than the consensus.

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Speaker 4: Some of it is you just don't know what JJ

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Speaker 4: McCarthy is you have to expect rookie quarterbacks to be bad,

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Speaker 4: even though sometimes they're not. And JJ McCarthy is essentially

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Speaker 4: a rookie quarterback this year, even though he does have

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Speaker 4: that offense with maybe the best wide receiver in the

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Speaker 4: game and a really good number two wide receiver and

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Speaker 4: a really good tight end. You know, there's questions about

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Speaker 4: the offensive line and yeah, we don't know what McCarthy is.

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Speaker 4: And their defense, like the Eagles defense, defense should regress

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Speaker 4: a bit this year. The Vikings defense is very interesting

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Speaker 4: because they don't have players who you're like, yeah, that's

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Speaker 4: a top ten player at his position, and yet they

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Speaker 4: performed to such a ridiculous extent last year. I think

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Speaker 4: you can say, I don't know if they can continue

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Speaker 4: doing that. Like as much as I like Brian Flores

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Speaker 4: and I like guys like Andrew Van Ginkel, I don't

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Speaker 4: know if they can pull that off again.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's interesting. So it sounds like it's pretty much

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Speaker 3: the same for you. In the NFC. Do you have

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Speaker 3: Falcons or Bucks winning the division?

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Speaker 4: We like the Buccaneers. We like the Buccaneers. We think

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Speaker 4: people sleep on the Buccaneers a little bit. Not like

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Speaker 4: we think they're a real super Bowl contender, but like

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Speaker 4: everybody is so busy talking down that division that they

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Speaker 4: don't realize that there's some good talent there in Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, we have the NFC mostly mostly the same,

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Speaker 4: with the same teams, except for the idea of San

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Speaker 4: Francisco being better and healthier and washing. We have Arizona

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Speaker 4: higher than I think consensus. We have Arizona's a definite

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Speaker 4: playoff contender. Their defense like better this year.

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Speaker 2: Now that regarding Tampa Bay, this is an interesting one.

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Speaker 2: So they lose, They seemingly lose their offensive coordinator every year.

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Speaker 2: They just lost Legam Cohen and this new guy, I

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Speaker 2: had to look him up, Josh Grizzard. Very little that

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Speaker 2: I'm aware of about him. He's thirty five years old.

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Speaker 2: He was their passing game coordinator. I don't it doesn't

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Speaker 2: look like he's ever called plays before. How do you

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Speaker 2: guys factor that into your numbers or do you just not?

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Speaker 4: All other things being equal, when a team has new

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Speaker 4: systems and a new coordinator, they do tend to take

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Speaker 4: a step back. I don't know if this quite qualifies

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Speaker 4: as that, because he's using all the same system. It's

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Speaker 4: not like they have to learn new language and new playbook.

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Speaker 4: It's the same as last year.

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Speaker 3: Okay.

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Speaker 4: For the most part, it's very difficult to incorporate coaching

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Speaker 4: in any kind of statistical projection because, like a good

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Speaker 4: example is Mike Vrabel in New England. I think we

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Speaker 4: have New England a little lower than consensus, in part

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Speaker 4: because you don't know what in Tennessee was the Titans

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Speaker 4: players and what was Vrabel. It's hard to know what

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Speaker 4: the real effect of Rabel as we think Vrabel is

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Speaker 4: a pretty good coach, but we don't know that Verrabel

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Speaker 4: is a pretty good coach. We just kind of think

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Speaker 4: he is. You have to see him with a couple

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Speaker 4: of different teams until you really know that he really

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Speaker 4: raises the players that he has under him.

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Speaker 3: So it's like you can't put it, you can't quantify coaching.

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Speaker 3: But let me ask you about this one. So Jeff Fisher,

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Speaker 3: old school guy, was with the Rams and Jared Goff.

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Speaker 3: They were terrible. Enter Sean McVeigh and they take off

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Speaker 3: like a rocket ship.

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Speaker 4: But we had no idea when Sean McVay started, so

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Speaker 4: that right, you didn't know until it happened that it

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Speaker 4: was going to happen.

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Speaker 3: So there's really that's the coaching changes. But that's why

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Speaker 3: I'm down on the Lions. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: And then you hear this Jamiir Gibbs talking about how, hey, yeah,

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Speaker 2: they're gonna line me up out wide more than they.

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Speaker 4: Oh, people say stuff like that in the preseason every year.

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Speaker 3: It never doesn't mean anything. Yeah, so don't overreact.

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Speaker 4: Okay, I would remark, no guy, running backs. I was like,

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Speaker 4: they're gonna use me as a receiver more and I'm

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Speaker 4: gonna line up wide more. It never really happens.

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Speaker 2: So the NFC, it sounds like you're pretty much status quo.

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Speaker 2: The AFC is the tough one because like some pretty

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Speaker 2: good teams, well one good team for sure missed the

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Speaker 2: playoffs last year in the Bengals, and I just I

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Speaker 2: have a hard time getting them back there given the

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Speaker 2: lack of defense.

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Speaker 4: Uh, and they have.

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Speaker 2: They've got an interesting experiment, right, Aaron. They just put

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Speaker 2: all their eggs in the burrow Chase Higgs basket, not that.

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Speaker 4: Man, which is I mean a great basket. Yeah right,

436
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 4: I mean like we I think that the Bengals are

437
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:48,240
Speaker 4: definitely playoff contenders again. This is where the idea of

438
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:52,240
Speaker 4: defense being less consistent than offense comes in. It is

439
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,919
Speaker 4: easier to predict that the Bengals offense will be really

440
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:59,239
Speaker 4: good than to predict that the Bengals defense will be

441
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 4: really bad. We think it's gonna be bad, but that's

442
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 4: harder to predict than offense, and so you have to

443
00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 4: like go a little bit more with offense when you

444
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 4: make preseason projections because it's easier to project.

445
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the tough part about the Bengals. So they

446
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 2: lost games last year in which they scored thirty three points,

447
00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 2: thirty eight points, thirty four, twenty seven, thirty eight, Like,

448
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 2: you can't lose those games when you're putting up that

449
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 2: many points with Burrow. But it appears there's no solution, Like,

450
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 2: have they made any defensive moves that you were like, ooh,

451
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:31,119
Speaker 2: I like that.

452
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 4: Honestly, the biggest defensive move they made is random chance.

453
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:38,880
Speaker 3: That can't be good.

454
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 4: I agree with you. I'm not looking. I mean, especially, gee,

455
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,719
Speaker 4: we spent our first round pick on a pass rusher

456
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 4: who were not sure is ready for the NFL because

457
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:53,119
Speaker 4: he's all raw skill and no actual production. Oh and

458
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 4: by the way, we can't get him into camp because

459
00:22:55,320 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 4: we're buzzing around with his contract language that's not good.

460
00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 3: All around terrible.

461
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 2: The problem is, like they're also in the division with

462
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:07,959
Speaker 2: the Ravens, who are gonna win the division as we

463
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 2: I don't think the Steelers are gonna be good with Rogers,

464
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 2: do you.

465
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 4: I mean my numbers First of all, for people who

466
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 4: don't know about DVOA have loved the Ravens to a

467
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 4: ridiculous extent for the last two years. So obviously I'm very,

468
00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:22,280
Speaker 4: very high on the Ravens. I don't think Rogers was

469
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,879
Speaker 4: good last year. I thought he was kind of average,

470
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,199
Speaker 4: you know. I mean, you can't just use that he

471
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,199
Speaker 4: was with the Jets to explain away how bla he was.

472
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 4: I mean, if we think Garrett Wilson is really good,

473
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,479
Speaker 4: then he had a really good receiver to work with,

474
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 4: and he had Devonte Adams for half the year, and yeah,

475
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 4: it was really blah. So yeah, we have the Steelers

476
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,479
Speaker 4: defense regressing a little bit, even though I mean, obviously

477
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 4: there's still lots of good players on that defense, and

478
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,399
Speaker 4: their offense is kind of blaw and the whole package

479
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,400
Speaker 4: is kind of blaw. Yeah, and we may be underselling

480
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 4: them because we can't quantify the amazing Mike tomlin ability

481
00:23:58,280 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 4: to manage a locker room.

482
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, but Mike tom loanability.

483
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 2: What about managing the Arthur Smith Aaron Rodgers relationship because.

484
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 4: It seems like a really weird one, right, it does.

485
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 4: That doesn't like Arthur Smith wants to do play action

486
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,439
Speaker 4: and quarterbacks will turn their back to the defense and

487
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 4: Rogers doesn't want to do that. And I mean Lafleur

488
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 4: was kind of like that when Laflora and Rogers worked

489
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 4: together in Green Bay. It worked. But yeah, the Smith

490
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 4: Rogers marriage seems really strange.

491
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was like five years ago. He was a

492
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 3: little more.

493
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 4: Mobile, was a little bit better quarterback.

494
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 3: Hot take the Jags can win the division? Yes, oh

495
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 3: all right, because Jack.

496
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 4: Marsh is our narrow favorite in the afccon you.

497
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 3: Have them as the favorite.

498
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,120
Speaker 2: Yes, So I'm guessing a lot of this is, Hey,

499
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:45,640
Speaker 2: their offense can really cook with a health of Lawrence

500
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 2: Travis Hunter Thomas was amazing, the running game's good offense.

501
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 3: They might have the best offense in the division.

502
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,719
Speaker 4: I think it's more, I mean their defense should be

503
00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:01,159
Speaker 4: better also, and it's more that Houston runs into a

504
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 4: similar problem as Philadelphia, which is defense that good doesn't

505
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 4: usually stay that good. And their offense collapsed last year

506
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 4: because the offensive line was so bad, but the defense

507
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 4: carried that team to the playoffs. What if the defense

508
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 4: isn't as good this year and the Jaguars are a

509
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 4: little bit better on both sides of the ball. Now,

510
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 4: the Jaguars passed the Texans. I mean it's not like

511
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 4: the Jaguars are competing with the Baltimore and Buffalo and

512
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 4: Kansas City or anything like that. But now the Jaguars

513
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:30,400
Speaker 4: are the better team in the division.

514
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 2: Interesting. So you said Houston's offensive line was atrocious. Why

515
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 2: did they give away Laramie Tunzel?

516
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 3: What was that all about?

517
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 4: I think it was a feeling like they just needed

518
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 4: to start from scratch with the offensive line. I mean,

519
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:50,119
Speaker 4: there's just a lot of guys now, their offensive line,

520
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 4: there's a lot of guys and you don't quite know

521
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 4: who's going to play where and how they fit together.

522
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 4: And I mean, I agree with you the Tunsil trade.

523
00:25:57,960 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 4: If your weakness is offensive line, trading your ben's offensive

524
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 4: lineman is a weird.

525
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 1: Look.

526
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, So this guy, Blake Fisher, Notre Dame second round pick,

527
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 2: graded out as the seventy ninth out of eighty one

528
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 2: right tackle or tackles.

529
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,640
Speaker 3: And then Cam ye oh really.

530
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 4: Who may not be the starter.

531
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 2: Cam Robinson they have projected at left tackle. He's been

532
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 2: up and down throughout his career. It looks like they're

533
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 2: gonna have a Jake Andrews, a brand new center. Like

534
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:29,680
Speaker 2: I like nothing about this line, man.

535
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, their line is if there's like Trent Brown is

536
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 4: around now and there's a second round rookie named aaronte

537
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 4: Ursery from Minnesota. Oh yeah, yeah, there's Jarrett Patterson, There's

538
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 4: Juw Scruggs. There's Titus Howard who might play tackle but

539
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 4: might play guard, and they move him back and forth

540
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 4: like it's like a lot of who knows what is

541
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 4: on this line.

542
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 3: I like to call that like a poo poo platter

543
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 3: of eight.

544
00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,399
Speaker 4: Or nine guys and none of it seems to be

545
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:03,639
Speaker 4: a really good combination of five guys which gonna be

546
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 4: the same problems as last year.

547
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

548
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio

549
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to

550
00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 1: listen live.

551
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 2: Obviously, your site FTN Fantasy Huge on Fantasy, are there

552
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 2: any major surprises? I mean, I'm not even close to

553
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:26,919
Speaker 2: a fantasy draft. We don't start till early August, but

554
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,159
Speaker 2: I'm starting to do the homework and I don't know.

555
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 2: It seems like Saque's probably you know, if you get

556
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 2: the first pick's probably gonna be the guy.

557
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 3: But I've got to I've.

558
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 2: Got to ask the year after McCaffrey had his heavy

559
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 2: usage rate two years ago, we saw the injuries.

560
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,360
Speaker 3: Saque was used so heavily last year.

561
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 2: I cannot imagine that they even use him anywhere close

562
00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 2: to the sable.

563
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,919
Speaker 4: There's something to worry about. And I believe we have

564
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 4: our number one fantasy guy as Bijon Robinson. What Yeah,

565
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,400
Speaker 4: he was top like four or five last year. So

566
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 4: if you think of Barkley regressing a little bit and whatever,

567
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 4: you either that. I mean, obviously it depends on the

568
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 4: rules of your league, right, Yes, wide receiver. The league

569
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,159
Speaker 4: kind of favors wide receivers. It's more Jamar Chase is

570
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 4: the number one guy in your league. But as the

571
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 4: running backs, we have b Jeon Robinson a little bit

572
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 4: ahead of Barkley.

573
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 2: Interesting, I'm looking at Bijon Robinson. He obviously had a

574
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 2: really good season. They got a lot of weapons on

575
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 2: that team.

576
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 3: They like Drake London. I'm curious, does the change from

577
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 3: Cousins to Pennix do anything for you regarding b John

578
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 3: Robinson's usage.

579
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 4: Yes, well, no, because Pennix is not really a mobile

580
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 4: He's more mobile than Cousins, but he's not really a

581
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:45,080
Speaker 4: mobile quarterback. Right. Mobile quarterbacks tend to make running backs

582
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 4: gain more yards per carry because you have to respect that.

583
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 4: They might keep the ball and it stops linebackers and

584
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 4: guys do a little bit better. But Pennix isn't that

585
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 4: kind of quarterback. But at least he can like hand off.

586
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 4: You know, Cousins wasn't moving around very well last year.

587
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 4: Penix is at least better than that.

588
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,960
Speaker 2: So I'm looking at his numbers last year, Bijon, it

589
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 2: looks like there was a slight tickup in usage in December.

590
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 2: Starting in December, he had a lot of twenty carry

591
00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 2: Game three. He hadn't had that prior.

592
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 4: Now.

593
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 2: I don't know if that has to do with Aljier

594
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 2: offensive line or what have you, But I don't know

595
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 2: if there's a correlation between that and Pennix and he

596
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 2: uses a receiver.

597
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 4: He's used as a receiver a lot, right, So that's

598
00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 4: another reason why if you're in a league, it's a

599
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 4: PPR or a half PPR. Really, I mean, I know

600
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 4: Saquon is obviously too. I'm not saying Saquon's not great.

601
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 4: I just it's interesting that when Jeff Radcliffe, who does

602
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 4: our projections and has won a lot of awards for

603
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 4: his projections, when he sent me the whole final list,

604
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:45,959
Speaker 4: I was really soocked that it had Bjon Robinson as

605
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 4: the top guy in most standard league.

606
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 3: Scoring soon one two. I'm a good assume McCaffrey three.

607
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 4: Among running backs. Probably obviously you're taking a real risk

608
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 4: with McCaffrey and Janty is uh really high like in projections,

609
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 4: like the Raiders are going to use him a ton.

610
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 4: Huh a rookie and everything we know about how Pete

611
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 4: Carroll wants to play like they are gonna depend on

612
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 4: him a lot.

613
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 2: I can't remember the last time I took a rookie

614
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 2: in the first round of a fantasy football draft.

615
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:21,360
Speaker 3: It might be like.

616
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 4: Exception, man, he's a guy that's worth it. And then

617
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 4: obviously for receivers, Jamar Chase, you know, justin Jefferson.

618
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, any major, any super sleepers out there that we

619
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 2: need to be aware of, guys who are probably not

620
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 2: on everyone else's radar, who could pop. I feel like

621
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 2: Green Bay may have something. They've got, like five good receivers.

622
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 2: It seems like a trade could be coming for them

623
00:30:42,760 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 2: at some point.

624
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, if they are able to trade receivers and they

625
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 4: give like a guy like Matthew Golden who's also a rookie,

626
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 4: is they give him a bigger job? I mean, you know,

627
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 4: the basic fantasy football, you take rookies a little earlier

628
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,719
Speaker 4: because you never know maybe that they you know, they

629
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 4: have a higher upside, but they have a lower down side.

630
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 4: And Golden is a good interesting guy to look at,

631
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 4: especially if the Packers do trade one of their receivers.

632
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 2: Uh. Any thoughts fantasy wise on going heavy on Jalen

633
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 2: Wattle given all the Tyreek Hill uncertainty. Tyreek Hill is

634
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 2: always cranky. Maybe he gets shipped to a content I

635
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 2: don't I don't know, but yeah.

636
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 4: But I gotta think Wattle does waddle, He does his

637
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 4: thing in that offense. Whether it is more dependent on

638
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 4: whether Tua is healthy then whether Hill is there or not.

639
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 4: I'm not. I don't feel like Waddle is gonna suddenly

640
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 4: be putting up hill like numbers.

641
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:39,120
Speaker 2: Uh Jayla, I'm sorry, neighbor, Milik Neighbors.

642
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 3: Does he concern you given he has no quarterback again

643
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 3: this year?

644
00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 4: No? Man, A lot of these top receivers they eat

645
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,200
Speaker 4: whether their quarterback is good or not. It's like the

646
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 4: number twos and number threes that suffer.

647
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 3: Uh.

648
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 2: You mentioned your bad You mentioned the Arizona Cardinals earlier

649
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 2: as a bye. I kind of like them as well.

650
00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 2: With the schedule continuity. They brought back is Kyler. You're

651
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,239
Speaker 2: a sleeper quarterback even all the weapons they have.

652
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, man, you want them to use Marvin Harrison a

653
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 4: little better though, Like like yeah, he wasn't very good

654
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,479
Speaker 4: on like go routes, Like don't just send him down

655
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 4: the field, like let him move around and root run

656
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 4: and like make cuts and stuff. I think that's a

657
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 4: better way to use him.

658
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 3: Seattle Seahawks bring in Sam Darnold at quarterback. They lose.

659
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 2: Netcalf, they lose Lockett. I you know, I'm not saying

660
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 2: Cooper Cup is washed, but he's near the end. MVS

661
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 2: is a one trick Pony is JSN like a deep

662
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 2: sleeper to like lead the league in targets and receptions.

663
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 4: I don't know if he'll lead the league in targets

664
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 4: and receptions, but he's I think he's You're right, I

665
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 4: mean Cup, we don't know what Cup has left, and

666
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 4: no MVS is nobody's idea of a starter. So I

667
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 4: do think the Jasen is going to have a good year.

668
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't love their defense at all. Seattle just

669
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 3: kind of of the coordinator I do.

670
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 4: You don't know if the players are the right players

671
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 4: to make it all work. Their defense was like tenth

672
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 4: or something last year. We have it regressing, But I'm

673
00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:10,440
Speaker 4: definitely willing to like to accept the argument that McDonald

674
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 4: is so good that they're not going to regress, that

675
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 4: they're actually going to get better. But the offense is

676
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 4: just like nothing exciting, Like, you know, the interior offensive

677
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 4: line isn't good and and the running backs are fine,

678
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 4: but they're nothing really that special, and there isn't wide

679
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 4: receiver depth and the offense just doesn't excite me.

680
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 3: All right, A couple just two more quick ones to

681
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 3: New Orleans Saints. I don't think.

682
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,800
Speaker 2: I don't think there's a more boring irrelevant team in

683
00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 2: the league than them. A. Do you know who their

684
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 2: starting quarterback is going to be? And then B or

685
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 2: do you have any of their players draftable in fantasy?

686
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:48,360
Speaker 4: Tyler Shuck is the starting quarterback for sure, I'm pretty

687
00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 4: sure WHOA. Yeah, not Rattler, not really.

688
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 3: I mean, dude, he was so undistinguished in college. It

689
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,880
Speaker 3: was like he played like seven years and was never good.

690
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,719
Speaker 4: He was good in the last year. I guess at Louisville, like,

691
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 4: I mean, you take a guy in the second round

692
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 4: that that's your guy. Kamara is probably still obviously draftable.

693
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 4: A Lave is still, like I said, number one receivers

694
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 4: tend to eat even when the quarterback's bad. Never yel

695
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 4: you know a Lave is healthy and not getting concussions.

696
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,840
Speaker 4: I think Olave is still a worthwhile fantasy pick. But

697
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 4: you're right, the Saints are have the least amount of

698
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:23,479
Speaker 4: hope of any team in the league, because at least

699
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,640
Speaker 4: with like the Giants and the Panther there's like hope,

700
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 4: maybe Bryce Young takes another step forward, maybe Jackson Dart

701
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 4: is good. There's none of that hope for the Saints,

702
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 4: and when you look at their cap situation for future years.

703
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 4: It makes the hope even disappear more war.

704
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, we could wrap up with the Cowboys only because

705
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 2: they seem to be a team divided among the fans,

706
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 2: like are they going to be awful?

707
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:45,640
Speaker 3: Are they a six win team?

708
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:45,959
Speaker 1: Eight?

709
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 2: The defense has some question marks. I think they'll be

710
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 2: chasing points a lot this year, So I actually think

711
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 2: Dak could put up big numbers with Lamb and Pickens.

712
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 2: And I don't love their run game. If Javonte Williams

713
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 2: is your one, you don't have a one. Offensive line's

714
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 2: not great. I think it's gonna be chucking duck for deck.

715
00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 2: He could throw for like forty five hundred yards.

716
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 4: I've heard people who are excited about Jaden Blue, and

717
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 4: I'm like, if you're excited about a fifth round running back,

718
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 4: you're not really excited about your running like that guy

719
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 4: where you're like, hey, fifth round running back, boy, we're

720
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 4: coming after you.

721
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 1: Right.

722
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 4: It's not like Janty or something. So I'm with you.

723
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 4: The defense, you don't know exactly how the health is

724
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 4: of the cornerbacks. You don't know how good the edge

725
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 4: rushers are. Other than Michael Parsons. You definitely could be

726
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 4: passing a lot. Remember I mean Dak Prescott finished second

727
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 4: second in the MVP race two years ago.

728
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's no reason he can't put up big numbers.

729
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 3: I don't think you're gonna win.

730
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 2: But finally I got to ask my Jets, do you

731
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 2: have them at all anywhere near the playoffs?

732
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 3: Any by players? Regarding fantasy, I'm.

733
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,720
Speaker 4: Not a fields believer. I think Arrett Wilson will get

734
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,919
Speaker 4: his certainly. I like Bryce Hall, although they've talked about

735
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,400
Speaker 4: using more of a committee, and I like brayln To

736
00:36:00,680 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 4: that got good running backs and the tackle right we

737
00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 4: have believe in the tackles, the young tackles. But I'm

738
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:09,759
Speaker 4: just not a justin fields guy. I'm just not. I

739
00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:13,520
Speaker 4: do think their defense will be better because cornerback play

740
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 4: is really inconsistent and Sauce really fell off last year,

741
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 4: which means he's likely to rebound and be back to

742
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 4: being You know, Sauce was so good the two years

743
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 4: before that that for him to fall off last year.

744
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 4: If you look at him over three years, he still

745
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 4: looks like one of the best cornerbacks in the league,

746
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,279
Speaker 4: and he should play a lot better than he did live.

747
00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:35,320
Speaker 3: Do you think a lot of that was solid getting fired.

748
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 4: I have no idea. I don't know whether how much

749
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 4: is that versus just the natural inconsistency of corners.

750
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, good stuff.

751
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 2: Aaron Shotts, FTN Fantasy Chief Analytics Officer. He is the

752
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 2: DVOA legend to be writing for ESPN gambling stuff this season.

753
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:57,280
Speaker 4: Still do ESPN stuff, gambling and historical also historical articles

754
00:36:57,320 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 4: and stuff during the season. People should get the book

755
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 4: for all the stuff that I've been talking about and

756
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,920
Speaker 4: all of our projections, all of Jeff Radcliffe's fantasy projections,

757
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 4: is the FTN Football Almanac twenty twenty five. So you

758
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 4: go to Ftnfantasy dot com slash Almanac.

759
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 2: If you want to get if you want to win fantasy,

760
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:17,800
Speaker 2: you know, if you want to do well and gambling,

761
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:18,839
Speaker 2: you gotta have this stuff, all right.

762
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 3: Aaron, thanks a lot. I just wish you were a

763
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 3: Jets fan. Man this Patriots love.

764
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 4: Hey, what can I say? In Massachusetts' home