WEBVTT - Americans Prioritizing Disposable Income on Travel

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg business Week Inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebec from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>We are in this interesting time where we're trying to

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<v Speaker 1>figure out what comes next, trying to guess FED policy,

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<v Speaker 1>watching data, some strong, some a little bit weaker. And

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<v Speaker 1>this is why we leaned so much on the c

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<v Speaker 1>suite Jess when it comes to trying to figure out

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<v Speaker 1>what comes next. And one of the companies we've been watching,

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<v Speaker 1>Booking Holdings. They're up nearly thirty percent so far this year.

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<v Speaker 1>It reported earnings last week, beating on both the top

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<v Speaker 1>and bottom lines. And among that company's brands, Priceline. So

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<v Speaker 1>we wanted to get a look at travel trends and demand.

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<v Speaker 1>So with us Priceline CEO Brett Keller. He joins us

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<v Speaker 1>via zoom in Norwalk, Connecticut. By the way, he's been

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<v Speaker 1>with the company for more than twenty years, so he's

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<v Speaker 1>seen a few cycles in his lifetime. Hey Brett, so

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<v Speaker 1>good to have you here with justin myself, how are

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<v Speaker 1>you and how would you describe the travel environment right now?

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you, thank you for having me, And things are

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<v Speaker 1>actually very good if you're in travel right now. Obviously

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<v Speaker 1>a very tough you know, twenty twenty and twenty one,

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty two started to show some really nice signs,

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<v Speaker 1>and for the last couple of quarters, the consumer has

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<v Speaker 1>really demonstrated that they're prioritizing travel right now. And if

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<v Speaker 1>you mentioned earlier, you know, we recently came out with

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<v Speaker 1>our fourth quarter results and it's showing real strength across

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<v Speaker 1>especially you know, across the US, but really across all

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<v Speaker 1>markets around the world. And I'm really excited with spring

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<v Speaker 1>coming up, Carol and Brett, just because we have daylight

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<v Speaker 1>savings next weekend, so we'll get that extra hour coming soon.

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<v Speaker 1>But Brett, I was curious about what does the travel

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<v Speaker 1>demand look like as we head into spring. Should we

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<v Speaker 1>expect this strength to continue? I mean, when I think

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<v Speaker 1>back to the holiday travel, there was a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of chaos when you thought about the airlines and some

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<v Speaker 1>of that in the bookings. But what are you expecting

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<v Speaker 1>for spring travel right now? Sure, well, consumers have essentially

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<v Speaker 1>kind of fallen back into their typical booking patterns, meaning

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<v Speaker 1>they're traveling on the busiest days of the year, so

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to pack those spring break weeks, especially families

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<v Speaker 1>when children have time off from school. Families are really

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<v Speaker 1>prioritizing travel this year more so than last year, and

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<v Speaker 1>most of them are heading to beaches and resort destinations.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you want to go to one of those destinations,

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<v Speaker 1>you can expect to find a lot of people traveling.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the airlines have largely recovered and are operating

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<v Speaker 1>at a pretty good scale now, but they still have

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<v Speaker 1>limited capacity, which means planes will be very, very full.

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<v Speaker 1>There's not really any slack in that industry at this time.

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<v Speaker 1>Gotta say bright, you know, I get that. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you try to book a flight right now for

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<v Speaker 1>business or otherwise, Man, those flights are expensive. We're still

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<v Speaker 1>kind of, you know, blown away by how expensive it is.

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<v Speaker 1>Does that continue? Because I'm thinking about the inflationary side

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<v Speaker 1>of this story. What do you see in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>costs for flights, for lodging, How is it playing out? Sure?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, when we look at forward bookings at the

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<v Speaker 1>spring break time frame, which is really you know, most

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<v Speaker 1>of March in April, what we're seeing as flight prices

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<v Speaker 1>are up about twenty five percent over last year, so

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<v Speaker 1>very expensive. If you're trying to travel overseas, which a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people are now heading out to Europe, you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to see prices up to forty percent over what

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<v Speaker 1>you being what you were paying last year. On the

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<v Speaker 1>hotel side, not so challenging. Hotel prices are about four

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<v Speaker 1>or five percent, so a little easier to consume those.

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<v Speaker 1>But on the if you're trying to fly, you're going

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<v Speaker 1>to pay a lot of money. So I think you'll

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<v Speaker 1>see quite a few consumers in the US choosing to

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<v Speaker 1>drive versus fly, and they'll they'll get to their hotel

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<v Speaker 1>destination that way. But it's a lot to consume right now,

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<v Speaker 1>and consumers so far are inhaling those prices. We haven't

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<v Speaker 1>seen either the hotel industry or the airlines really pull

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<v Speaker 1>back on a lot of their price increase, and so

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<v Speaker 1>as long as demand is there, we can expect those

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<v Speaker 1>prices to stay rather high. Right any sign that capacity

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<v Speaker 1>increased capacity comes into the airline industry, I mean, they've

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<v Speaker 1>gotten so smart at ticking out excess capacity that was

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<v Speaker 1>pre pandemic. We saw that in a big way. They're

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<v Speaker 1>great about charging for everything once you get on a flight,

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<v Speaker 1>or even on your way to that flight. Is there

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<v Speaker 1>any signs or any indications that you're hearing that we

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<v Speaker 1>get an increase in airline capacity. Well, I think there's

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<v Speaker 1>some early signs. I know all of the airlines would

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<v Speaker 1>love to build up capacity. What they've been challenged with,

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<v Speaker 1>of course, is hiring enough pilots and staff and ground

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<v Speaker 1>crew to support the oncoming flow of equipment. There's been

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<v Speaker 1>a number of new orders put in for planes, and

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<v Speaker 1>so I think over the next couple of years we'll

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<v Speaker 1>see that start to ease. But you know, getting us

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<v Speaker 1>through the summer, I think what we have today on

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<v Speaker 1>the market is pretty much what we're living with, which

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<v Speaker 1>means a very stressed environment. When it comes to, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>finding an airline ticket that is reasonably prized to a

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<v Speaker 1>great destination. There are still deals to be found. You

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<v Speaker 1>can still find reasonable locations to travel to, but you

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<v Speaker 1>might have to be flexible if money is a really

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<v Speaker 1>tight concern for you right now, Britt, Where exactly are

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<v Speaker 1>the most affordable deals for spring break, whether it's to

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<v Speaker 1>the US or maybe even internationally. Sure, you know, if

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<v Speaker 1>you're if you're looking for a nice, warm beach destination.

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<v Speaker 1>Fort Lauderdale always a good option. Myrtle Beach, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>not the Miami Beach, but provide the same type of

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<v Speaker 1>experience in some ways, especially for families. Puerto Rico is

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<v Speaker 1>very popular right now. Obviously Dominican Republic, Romaica. So the

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<v Speaker 1>Caribbean continues to be a reasonably affordable place to go overseas.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, if you're trying to travel to the big

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<v Speaker 1>cities like London and Paris, you're going to pay. If

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<v Speaker 1>you are a little bit flexible and want to try

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<v Speaker 1>something new, you can try something like Lisbon, Athens, Munich,

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<v Speaker 1>in the Naples, you know, those destinations. You'll pay maybe

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<v Speaker 1>a touch less on the flight, but you're really going

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<v Speaker 1>to say when it comes to your hotel and the

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<v Speaker 1>average price you're going to pay there as well as

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<v Speaker 1>it's just a little cheaper to travel in some of

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<v Speaker 1>those markets, especially in Greece. A beautiful destination and much

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<v Speaker 1>more reasonable when it comes to the daily expenses for

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<v Speaker 1>a consumer. Sign me up, We're ready. Hey listen, Brett.

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<v Speaker 1>What I do wonder too, is the window that you

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<v Speaker 1>guys see globally, Like, what are you seeing globally in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of where there's lots of activity travel wise, Is

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<v Speaker 1>it mostly Is it largely the US? I know here

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<v Speaker 1>in New York City, as I walk the streets of

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<v Speaker 1>New York, I'm seeing a lot more international travelers back

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<v Speaker 1>on the streets. Yeah. You know, the US recovered first,

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<v Speaker 1>and that was mostly due to domestic travel. The US

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<v Speaker 1>borders obviously opened up a little sooner than some of

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<v Speaker 1>the European boarders, and especially the Asian borders, and so

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<v Speaker 1>we saw a number of international travelers begin to pour

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<v Speaker 1>into the US. But Europe came back very strong in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty two and is now moving at a very

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<v Speaker 1>fast pace and catching up to the US. Asia was

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<v Speaker 1>the longest, they took the longest coming out of COVID

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<v Speaker 1>to really start to recover, But they are now ramping

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<v Speaker 1>up very very quickly, and I think in some countries

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing demand outpacing twenty nineteen. Because the travel was

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<v Speaker 1>so constrained for so long, people aren't just desperate to

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<v Speaker 1>go out and take vacations, visit friends and family and

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<v Speaker 1>just see the world. Something else I thought was interesting

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<v Speaker 1>in a survey that y'all had, was looking at how

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<v Speaker 1>spring breakers are basically split between going someplace new versus

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<v Speaker 1>returning to a favorite destination. Why do you think that is? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, travel is one of those things that if

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<v Speaker 1>you've had a great experience, you want to repeat it.

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<v Speaker 1>And a lot of consumers, you know, when they find

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<v Speaker 1>a favorite hotel or a favorite location, they know they

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<v Speaker 1>can bank on that head and count on that and

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<v Speaker 1>if they can get the price that they want, they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to return to that destination. We see that a

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<v Speaker 1>lot with Priceline customers, right they come back and repeat

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<v Speaker 1>and stay many times at the same hotel. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's just you know, when you've had a poor

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<v Speaker 1>travel experience, it just reminds you how much you love

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<v Speaker 1>the good ones. And so I think people are just

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit of a creature of habit there you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to return to where you where you feel most comfortable,

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<v Speaker 1>you know the area, etc. But there's always a mix

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<v Speaker 1>of people who want to try something new every time

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<v Speaker 1>they head out. And with the world now really opening up,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's much more possible to do that now,

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<v Speaker 1>you know. The UN World Tourism Organization came out with

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<v Speaker 1>a stat that said over nine hundred million tourists traveled

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty two, that's still only sixty three percent

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<v Speaker 1>of where we were in twenty nineteen. But this year

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<v Speaker 1>that number could get as high as ninety five percent,

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<v Speaker 1>so almost back to a fully worldwide travel recovery. I

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<v Speaker 1>gotta tell you, I'm one of those people. There's a

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<v Speaker 1>few places I know, I know, I'm gonna love it,

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<v Speaker 1>and I go back. Hey, listen, Brett just got about

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<v Speaker 1>twenty five seconds here. Lots of geopolitical concerns. Doctor's remind

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<v Speaker 1>us were still not over COVID completely. What is it

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<v Speaker 1>that you worry about most when you look at the outlook?

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<v Speaker 1>And again just about twenty twenty five seconds. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think our primary concern obviously is the longstanding impact

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<v Speaker 1>of inflation on consumer's wallet. I think that really is

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<v Speaker 1>the primary concern now. I think consumers are largely over

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<v Speaker 1>concerns about health as they travel, and it's now really

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<v Speaker 1>more about the pocketbook. And you know, that's what we

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<v Speaker 1>do here at Priceline. We try to help you get

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<v Speaker 1>a great deal and get you where you want to go. Well, listen,

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<v Speaker 1>great inside, and so appreciate you spending some time with

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<v Speaker 1>us on this Friday. Brick Keller, He's chief executive officer

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<v Speaker 1>at Priceline, joining us via zoom from Norwalk, Connecticut. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser along with just met and you are listening

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<v Speaker 1>in watching Bloomberg Business Week and this Bloomberg Radio. This

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<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week inside from the reporters and editors

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<v Speaker 1>who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global

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<v Speaker 1>business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebec from Bloomberg Radio. So

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<v Speaker 1>it was just a year ago we were all, I think,

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<v Speaker 1>safe to say a bit's done with a news hit

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<v Speaker 1>that actor Bruce Willis would step away from acting due

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<v Speaker 1>to a battle with aphasia. That's a language disorder caused

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<v Speaker 1>by damage in a specific area of the brain that

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<v Speaker 1>controls language expression and comprehension. And then last month more

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<v Speaker 1>news on a specific diagnosis, fronto temporal dementia, something known

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<v Speaker 1>as FTD. Safe to say it also sent us all

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<v Speaker 1>googling to understand what this was all about, Jess. So

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<v Speaker 1>lucky for us we have back with us doctor Ian

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<v Speaker 1>LUs Beata, clinical Professor of Medicine at NYU Langone Medical Center.

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<v Speaker 1>He joins us via zoom in New York City Ian.

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<v Speaker 1>Good to have you here on this Friday. I do

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<v Speaker 1>think we're all wondering what the heck this is about,

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<v Speaker 1>so tell us little bit more about it, and good

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<v Speaker 1>to have you here with us and on zoom. Absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>thanks Carol and Jess, thanks for having me. Dementia really

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<v Speaker 1>is a problem nationally. At least six million people in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States have it, and it's estimated that about

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<v Speaker 1>ten percent of people sixty five and older have signed

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<v Speaker 1>shore early dementia, and really as much as over thirty

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<v Speaker 1>percent of people who are over ninety, so it's really common.

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<v Speaker 1>The causes are not totally clear. Dementia really is a

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<v Speaker 1>group of diseases that present with similar symptoms, usually brain changes,

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<v Speaker 1>and they can present with memory issues and personality changes.

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<v Speaker 1>Fronto temporal dementia is actually not that common Alzheimer's. Fifty

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<v Speaker 1>to sixty percent of all dementia is Alzheimer's and frontotemporal

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<v Speaker 1>really describes where in the brain it is. The frontal

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<v Speaker 1>lobes are here and the temporal lobes are on the side,

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<v Speaker 1>and the frontal lobes really help us with personality decision making,

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<v Speaker 1>an inhibition kind of thinking before speaking or acting, and

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<v Speaker 1>patients who are frontotemporal dementia, unfortunately over time as a decline,

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<v Speaker 1>often have disinhibition. They may speak inappropriately, they may act inappropriately,

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<v Speaker 1>they may have processing issues with hearing and speaking word

0:12:04.600 --> 0:12:10.160
<v Speaker 1>finding ability, and that can overlap with other kinds of

0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:14.080
<v Speaker 1>dementia classic sort of Alzheimer's dementia, but there are other

0:12:14.160 --> 0:12:18.200
<v Speaker 1>kinds of dementia Louis body dementia, Parkinsons can have a

0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:22.760
<v Speaker 1>variant of dementia alcohol use. So it's really a problem,

0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:27.200
<v Speaker 1>and it becomes a real problem for caretakers because people

0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:31.880
<v Speaker 1>initially begin to lose thinking function, but physically they're okay,

0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:34.679
<v Speaker 1>so they may wander, they may think they can still

0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:39.240
<v Speaker 1>drive or make decisions when they really can't. And sometimes

0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:42.840
<v Speaker 1>they can be agitated and not really fully understand their

0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:47.560
<v Speaker 1>decline and not really cooperate. So it really is a nightmare.

0:12:48.280 --> 0:12:50.560
<v Speaker 1>I was curious because you were talking about how rare

0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:56.120
<v Speaker 1>it is for someone to have frontotemporal dementia like Bruce Willists.

0:12:56.240 --> 0:12:58.559
<v Speaker 1>Do you have a scope of how many Americans or

0:12:58.600 --> 0:13:03.840
<v Speaker 1>even just globally people are impacted by this. It's a

0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:07.040
<v Speaker 1>big number and unfortunately growing front to temporal dementia is

0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:12.920
<v Speaker 1>somewhere about five to six percent of dementia's. Alzheimer's is

0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:17.000
<v Speaker 1>the classic sort of fifty or sixty percent of dementias,

0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:20.240
<v Speaker 1>and then they're a host of other ones. So, of

0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:23.280
<v Speaker 1>the six million people in the United States and growing

0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:27.920
<v Speaker 1>with dementia, about five percent of them have fronto temporal

0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:32.080
<v Speaker 1>and it's not always diagnosed right away. Many people come

0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:36.880
<v Speaker 1>into the office, I have word finding difficulty. I can't

0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:39.720
<v Speaker 1>remember where I put my keys. You know, most of

0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:43.880
<v Speaker 1>those are not significant, but over time that may progress,

0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:48.200
<v Speaker 1>and doctors need to be more aware of it. Referral

0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:52.280
<v Speaker 1>to an urologist is helpful. Sometimes brain imaging is helpful.

0:13:52.320 --> 0:13:55.760
<v Speaker 1>We'll see, for example, with FTD you'll see a decline

0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:59.520
<v Speaker 1>in the frontal lobes and temporal lobes. Alzheimer's general brain

0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:04.040
<v Speaker 1>shrink and some of these are associated with protein deposition,

0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:07.360
<v Speaker 1>either amoloid or TAW protein, which is why a lot

0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:10.320
<v Speaker 1>of the company's biogen east Side. Many are looking to

0:14:11.040 --> 0:14:15.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of slow the amoloid or TAW protein. But how

0:14:15.559 --> 0:14:18.440
<v Speaker 1>much that really affects the progression is yet to be seen.

0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:21.600
<v Speaker 1>But the problem is it's an aging population just and

0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:24.920
<v Speaker 1>exactly as you say, whatever the numbers are. Now, let's

0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:28.440
<v Speaker 1>say five percent fronto temporal of the six million people,

0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:30.480
<v Speaker 1>that number is growing. Well, you know, that's the thing

0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:32.160
<v Speaker 1>I was thinking about you and is that you know,

0:14:32.240 --> 0:14:36.920
<v Speaker 1>I've certainly had older family members in my life, you know,

0:14:37.040 --> 0:14:39.560
<v Speaker 1>that have had dementia, but not everybody who gets old

0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:42.960
<v Speaker 1>gets dementia. So what is it like you talk about?

0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:45.360
<v Speaker 1>You know, what's going on that maybe is you know,

0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:48.120
<v Speaker 1>brings this all about. But I guess as we all

0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:50.240
<v Speaker 1>think about it, is there a way to avoid it?

0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:53.160
<v Speaker 1>Or is it just the luck or not luck of

0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:59.040
<v Speaker 1>your genes? That's why you're the anchor Carrold's place. Now

0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:01.720
<v Speaker 1>that's really the key thing, or one of the key things,

0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:03.800
<v Speaker 1>is how do you prevent it and how do you

0:15:03.880 --> 0:15:07.560
<v Speaker 1>treat it? So certainly we know overall health makes a difference.

0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:14.920
<v Speaker 1>Obesity increases many problems diabetes, heart disease, sleep at me,

0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:20.280
<v Speaker 1>but it also increases cognitive function. Hypertension needs to be controlled,

0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:24.120
<v Speaker 1>cholesterol needs to be controlled, so real alcohol needs to

0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:26.600
<v Speaker 1>be controlled. We now see, unfortunately, we used to think

0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:28.920
<v Speaker 1>that one drink a day was okay, and now now

0:15:29.000 --> 0:15:31.640
<v Speaker 1>unfortunately we see the more you drink, the more complications

0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:34.960
<v Speaker 1>you can have. So really the best advice is to

0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:38.920
<v Speaker 1>be healthy, keep your blood pressure under control, keep your

0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:42.120
<v Speaker 1>cholesterol under control, keep your weight under control. And people

0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:46.040
<v Speaker 1>who remain active, thinking maybe an argument to work later,

0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:49.960
<v Speaker 1>don't retire so early. People who are more active physically

0:15:50.000 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 1>and mentally seem to have a slower decline. Some of

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:57.000
<v Speaker 1>these can run in families, but often it's sporadic, and

0:15:57.080 --> 0:16:00.960
<v Speaker 1>we don't really know why some people get these proteins

0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:05.160
<v Speaker 1>in the brain that begin to damage your function, and

0:16:05.200 --> 0:16:08.640
<v Speaker 1>why others do not, and why it's increasing. That's also

0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:11.840
<v Speaker 1>a bit unclear, but certainly there are a few treatable

0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:15.560
<v Speaker 1>causes like normal pressure hydrocephalous where you can put in

0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:17.600
<v Speaker 1>a shunt and do some things to kind of slow

0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:21.160
<v Speaker 1>the decline, and medications really don't reverse it. They just

0:16:21.200 --> 0:16:24.160
<v Speaker 1>slow the decline. So it is you're asking the right question.

0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:27.960
<v Speaker 1>We do not know why some people get these abnormal

0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:30.960
<v Speaker 1>proteins that cause well, let me put it this way,

0:16:31.040 --> 0:16:33.800
<v Speaker 1>it's associated with decline. We're not even sure it is

0:16:33.880 --> 0:16:35.960
<v Speaker 1>forcing the decline because I'm trying to figure out, are

0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:37.800
<v Speaker 1>you telling me I'm not out of ice cream? Like

0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:41.520
<v Speaker 1>every day? Is that what you're telling me it sounds

0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:47.080
<v Speaker 1>like it ian moderation. I think moderation is and really

0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:49.280
<v Speaker 1>in all areas, and that would be the best thing.

0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:52.400
<v Speaker 1>And you know, continue to ask smart questions and be

0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:57.720
<v Speaker 1>engaged with many people social activities, cognitive activities as you do.

0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:01.560
<v Speaker 1>Definitely will Is lowers the risk of dementia. The one

0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:03.200
<v Speaker 1>thing I will say about Bruce willis, like, if you've

0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:08.159
<v Speaker 1>ever I mean, he was so funny, so bright, so

0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:11.120
<v Speaker 1>with it, and so it just seems like such an

0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:14.200
<v Speaker 1>evil thing to have this kind of illness for someone

0:17:14.240 --> 0:17:17.439
<v Speaker 1>who's so articulate and like I said, so clever. You

0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:21.560
<v Speaker 1>lose yourself and the family loses their loved one, and

0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:25.200
<v Speaker 1>it's really horrific. And we need more funding and more

0:17:25.320 --> 0:17:28.880
<v Speaker 1>energy to really get to the cause and cure. Well,

0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:30.680
<v Speaker 1>I wasn't going to ask you what the main challenges

0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:32.679
<v Speaker 1>were as far as trying to find a cure, but

0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:35.160
<v Speaker 1>you were just talking about the funding. Is that the

0:17:35.200 --> 0:17:39.120
<v Speaker 1>main obstacle standing in the way. You know, drug companies

0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:42.760
<v Speaker 1>obviously have a huge incentive. Many companies I mentioned a

0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:48.560
<v Speaker 1>few are actively trying to develop a cure or a

0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:51.440
<v Speaker 1>way to reverse this. Part of the problem is what

0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:55.560
<v Speaker 1>we think is reversible, like these ambeloid deposits or tab

0:17:55.640 --> 0:17:58.880
<v Speaker 1>protein or neurofibroli tangles. You know, when you do brain

0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:03.000
<v Speaker 1>biopsies in some of the patients you see not only shrinkets,

0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:07.520
<v Speaker 1>but these abnormal deposits. What's not clear is if you

0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:10.439
<v Speaker 1>can reduce those, are you really changing the course of

0:18:10.480 --> 0:18:13.560
<v Speaker 1>the disease? That is yet to be seen. That's the

0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:16.800
<v Speaker 1>hope that if you can reduce, for example, amoloid protein,

0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:19.080
<v Speaker 1>and that can occur in other error is. Amoloid can

0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:21.720
<v Speaker 1>occur in the kidneys and the liver and other places.

0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:24.880
<v Speaker 1>But the real thing is if you slow that down

0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:29.600
<v Speaker 1>or stop that, are you really affecting the endpoint of

0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:32.240
<v Speaker 1>the disease, and that we don't really know yet. Well,

0:18:33.280 --> 0:18:36.960
<v Speaker 1>money is needed, Yeah, no, absolutely, And it's interesting, especially

0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:38.640
<v Speaker 1>when you go back to the Alzheimer's part of it.

0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:42.679
<v Speaker 1>You see drug companies certainly in the pursuit of figuring

0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:44.280
<v Speaker 1>out how to treat that or come up with some

0:18:44.320 --> 0:18:46.840
<v Speaker 1>kind of treatment. The stocks often move on any kind

0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.800
<v Speaker 1>of indications in a positive way. And thank you so much,

0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:51.920
<v Speaker 1>great to see you and have you here via zoom.

0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:54.320
<v Speaker 1>Have a good week at doctor ian Lusbad or Clinical

0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:57.960
<v Speaker 1>professor of Medicine at NYU Landgoing Medical Center. Joining us

0:18:58.080 --> 0:19:01.320
<v Speaker 1>via zoom in New York City, listening to the Bloomberg

0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.800
<v Speaker 1>Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekdays from two to

0:19:04.880 --> 0:19:08.520
<v Speaker 1>five pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio the Bloomberg Business app

0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:11.280
<v Speaker 1>band you Doo. You can also listen live to our

0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:19.199
<v Speaker 1>flagship New York station Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg ELBM Dierdi. Well,

0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:21.000
<v Speaker 1>you might say they're mad as hell and they're not

0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:23.879
<v Speaker 1>going to take it anymore. Female exects. They're exhausted, frustrated

0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:26.359
<v Speaker 1>and calling it quits. The story in the new issue

0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:29.720
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, now out on newsstands, online, up Bloomberg

0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:31.720
<v Speaker 1>dot com, Slash business Week, and of course on the

0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:35.080
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg terminal. Let's get to exactly what's going on, Bloomberg

0:19:35.119 --> 0:19:38.520
<v Speaker 1>News Economics reporter Joan al Marte in our Washington DC bureau.

0:19:38.800 --> 0:19:40.760
<v Speaker 1>She wrote it. She joins us along with the editor

0:19:40.840 --> 0:19:43.440
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week, Joe Webber here in our Bloomberg Interactive

0:19:43.440 --> 0:19:47.600
<v Speaker 1>Broker studio. Not a good trend, It's not. And the

0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:50.639
<v Speaker 1>thing that really stood out to me is that, you know,

0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:56.640
<v Speaker 1>there has been some progress about what female executives, how

0:19:56.720 --> 0:19:59.160
<v Speaker 1>high they could go, whether it could look like those

0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:01.240
<v Speaker 1>numbers were trending in the right way. And then what

0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:03.399
<v Speaker 1>really stood out to me in this story it was

0:20:03.800 --> 0:20:06.800
<v Speaker 1>the number of sort of you know, high profile, big

0:20:06.880 --> 0:20:10.959
<v Speaker 1>names that suddenly are leading. So so break down your reporting, Janelle,

0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:13.480
<v Speaker 1>and tell us about what you learned as you dug

0:20:13.480 --> 0:20:17.320
<v Speaker 1>into it. So this is something that is going on

0:20:17.400 --> 0:20:20.600
<v Speaker 1>and it's not fully captured in government data. And what's

0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:23.320
<v Speaker 1>what's happening is that a lot of women in senior

0:20:23.400 --> 0:20:26.919
<v Speaker 1>level positions. We're talking about people who work through the

0:20:26.920 --> 0:20:30.480
<v Speaker 1>most intense phase of the pandemic. We're not the group

0:20:30.520 --> 0:20:33.359
<v Speaker 1>that was laid off initially, you know, we're really trying

0:20:33.359 --> 0:20:37.880
<v Speaker 1>to keep their staffs together, their families intact, and how

0:20:37.960 --> 0:20:41.480
<v Speaker 1>to belated told to what happened. The stress and exhaustion

0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:46.440
<v Speaker 1>caused during this crisis really is causing some of them

0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:49.879
<v Speaker 1>to bow out. Now, what does that look like? It depends.

0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:53.640
<v Speaker 1>So for some women they're moving into lower or less

0:20:53.640 --> 0:20:58.280
<v Speaker 1>demanding positions. Other others are changing industries. We know there's

0:20:58.320 --> 0:21:01.600
<v Speaker 1>research that shows that women were than men changed industries

0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:04.520
<v Speaker 1>during the pandemic. And for other people and for other

0:21:04.560 --> 0:21:07.240
<v Speaker 1>women in this position, it really means just taking a

0:21:07.280 --> 0:21:11.040
<v Speaker 1>step back, walking away from their job, leaving it in

0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:15.120
<v Speaker 1>some cases really lucrative paychecks behind, and saying that it's

0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:16.880
<v Speaker 1>just not worth it for them. It's not what they

0:21:16.920 --> 0:21:19.440
<v Speaker 1>need in their lives at this moment or what they

0:21:19.560 --> 0:21:22.280
<v Speaker 1>need for their families. Okay, so there's some big name

0:21:22.520 --> 0:21:26.399
<v Speaker 1>companies that are trying to help solve this problem because

0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:30.040
<v Speaker 1>of how acute it's become. What are they doing so?

0:21:30.280 --> 0:21:33.040
<v Speaker 1>Good point there, Joel, So what's going on is that

0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:37.600
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing companies take some action. You know, these departures

0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:40.280
<v Speaker 1>are not good for them, not good for the efforts

0:21:40.320 --> 0:21:44.400
<v Speaker 1>that have been made to diversify corporate leadership. And it's

0:21:44.440 --> 0:21:48.920
<v Speaker 1>interesting to see companies like Amazon and Goldman Sachs either

0:21:49.119 --> 0:21:54.760
<v Speaker 1>invest in or relaunch or expand programs that are called returnships.

0:21:55.119 --> 0:21:59.399
<v Speaker 1>And what these initiatives do is it gives people who

0:21:59.480 --> 0:22:02.000
<v Speaker 1>have left workforce there a lot of them are targeted

0:22:02.040 --> 0:22:04.400
<v Speaker 1>at women. It gives them a way to come back

0:22:04.400 --> 0:22:07.159
<v Speaker 1>to work in a mid level position as opposed to

0:22:07.200 --> 0:22:10.280
<v Speaker 1>having to start all over. And it's just one way

0:22:10.320 --> 0:22:13.879
<v Speaker 1>to retain or recruit, for example, more women who might

0:22:13.920 --> 0:22:18.359
<v Speaker 1>have left for whatever reason. You know, just how costly

0:22:18.600 --> 0:22:20.880
<v Speaker 1>is this when you think of the progress that had

0:22:20.880 --> 0:22:25.000
<v Speaker 1>been made in recent decades. How much does this undo that?

0:22:26.400 --> 0:22:29.040
<v Speaker 1>So I think that's the big concern. Right, We have

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:33.200
<v Speaker 1>seen some progress, So I don't want to discount that

0:22:33.280 --> 0:22:36.800
<v Speaker 1>we are seeing some growth in terms of the share

0:22:36.800 --> 0:22:40.720
<v Speaker 1>of women in inn CEO positions, for example. But if

0:22:40.720 --> 0:22:43.160
<v Speaker 1>you look at maybe the national level from the beer

0:22:43.240 --> 0:22:46.840
<v Speaker 1>of labor statistics, that's pretty much flattened out over the

0:22:46.880 --> 0:22:48.960
<v Speaker 1>past few years. There's a lot of different ways to

0:22:49.000 --> 0:22:51.879
<v Speaker 1>look at this. Again, the data is not great, but

0:22:51.960 --> 0:22:54.480
<v Speaker 1>I think what you're getting at just is that there

0:22:54.560 --> 0:22:57.280
<v Speaker 1>is a cost here if they don't find a way

0:22:57.320 --> 0:22:59.439
<v Speaker 1>to address this, if they don't find a way to

0:22:59.520 --> 0:23:04.160
<v Speaker 1>make workplace is more inclusive, to allow women to more

0:23:04.200 --> 0:23:06.880
<v Speaker 1>confidently feel like they can balance all of the things

0:23:06.920 --> 0:23:10.199
<v Speaker 1>in there, you know, in their personal and in professional lives,

0:23:10.680 --> 0:23:14.159
<v Speaker 1>that it doesn't bode well for the pipeline that is

0:23:14.480 --> 0:23:18.160
<v Speaker 1>feeds into these sort of C suite you know, of

0:23:18.160 --> 0:23:21.879
<v Speaker 1>course CEO level positions. And I think another thing to

0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:26.600
<v Speaker 1>note is that, um, well you know, I think you're

0:23:26.680 --> 0:23:29.080
<v Speaker 1>you're you're hitting on that right there. Well, it's interesting too,

0:23:29.119 --> 0:23:30.920
<v Speaker 1>And I think about like if we hadn't got through

0:23:30.920 --> 0:23:32.600
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic, and we all got and I've got a

0:23:32.600 --> 0:23:35.000
<v Speaker 1>glimpse of you know, we all wish that hadn't happened.

0:23:35.040 --> 0:23:36.800
<v Speaker 1>But it's like, wait, I don't have to commute, I

0:23:36.800 --> 0:23:38.760
<v Speaker 1>get two or three or four hours left, you know,

0:23:38.920 --> 0:23:42.199
<v Speaker 1>extra in my day, and I see my family and

0:23:42.280 --> 0:23:43.880
<v Speaker 1>I really do like them and I'd like to spend

0:23:43.920 --> 0:23:47.160
<v Speaker 1>more time with them. I mean, this concept of balance

0:23:47.320 --> 0:23:50.160
<v Speaker 1>is it really here to stay where companies are like, yeah,

0:23:50.280 --> 0:23:53.080
<v Speaker 1>get it, so take a day, take a half a day,

0:23:53.119 --> 0:23:55.919
<v Speaker 1>leave early. Is that realistic? Is that likely to happen?

0:23:56.040 --> 0:23:58.919
<v Speaker 1>Or is it that women are still doing the bulk

0:23:59.440 --> 0:24:01.960
<v Speaker 1>of things at home when it comes to the family

0:24:02.080 --> 0:24:08.320
<v Speaker 1>and that makes it tricky so when companies. So McKenzie

0:24:08.359 --> 0:24:11.119
<v Speaker 1>and Lenin did some research on this, and what they

0:24:11.160 --> 0:24:16.119
<v Speaker 1>found was that stress and exhaustion were cited for highly

0:24:16.240 --> 0:24:18.880
<v Speaker 1>for some of the reasons why women were making these changes.

0:24:19.400 --> 0:24:22.560
<v Speaker 1>And I think it shows exactly what you were talking

0:24:22.600 --> 0:24:26.639
<v Speaker 1>about there that women in senior level positions are still

0:24:26.680 --> 0:24:30.160
<v Speaker 1>taking on much more of the work at home when

0:24:30.200 --> 0:24:33.359
<v Speaker 1>compared to men at the same level. And what I

0:24:33.440 --> 0:24:35.560
<v Speaker 1>was going to say earlier is that a lot of

0:24:35.600 --> 0:24:38.960
<v Speaker 1>women also take on extra work around the office to

0:24:39.200 --> 0:24:42.480
<v Speaker 1>help that diversity, to make sure that you know, women,

0:24:42.520 --> 0:24:48.119
<v Speaker 1>women of color, other underrepresented groups are getting the resources

0:24:48.119 --> 0:24:50.960
<v Speaker 1>that they need, you know, the advancement that they deserve,

0:24:51.400 --> 0:24:54.200
<v Speaker 1>and that kind of work. Even though it pays off,

0:24:54.280 --> 0:24:57.440
<v Speaker 1>it may not always be something that's included in their compensation,

0:24:57.600 --> 0:25:00.560
<v Speaker 1>for example, So it can also lead to burn out

0:25:00.600 --> 0:25:04.120
<v Speaker 1>because it's it's extra effort and it may not always

0:25:04.160 --> 0:25:07.760
<v Speaker 1>be rewarded. I just want to say something about the

0:25:07.880 --> 0:25:11.520
<v Speaker 1>data because that is also an interesting element here, and

0:25:11.640 --> 0:25:15.680
<v Speaker 1>as you wrote, the government track data leaves a little

0:25:15.680 --> 0:25:18.600
<v Speaker 1>bit to be desired. So what do we have and

0:25:18.720 --> 0:25:20.240
<v Speaker 1>what do we not have here if we're going to

0:25:20.280 --> 0:25:25.600
<v Speaker 1>actually like attempt to wrestle with this challenge. So we

0:25:25.680 --> 0:25:28.400
<v Speaker 1>have some private sector groups that are taking a look

0:25:28.440 --> 0:25:31.160
<v Speaker 1>at this and as well at the government level. So

0:25:31.200 --> 0:25:33.520
<v Speaker 1>at the government level, if you look at the beer

0:25:33.560 --> 0:25:36.320
<v Speaker 1>of labor statistics and the share of women that are

0:25:36.359 --> 0:25:40.000
<v Speaker 1>in management positions that's actually ticked down a little bit

0:25:40.400 --> 0:25:42.920
<v Speaker 1>over the past year. And then the share of women

0:25:42.960 --> 0:25:46.320
<v Speaker 1>who hold you know, all CEOs or rather all of

0:25:46.359 --> 0:25:49.600
<v Speaker 1>the CEO positions that are held by women, that's really

0:25:49.640 --> 0:25:54.119
<v Speaker 1>held flat since twenty twenty, so that can be worrisome.

0:25:54.760 --> 0:25:57.560
<v Speaker 1>And then you have research and surveys from groups like

0:25:57.680 --> 0:26:00.720
<v Speaker 1>Lenin and McKinsey and for example, well they found that

0:26:00.880 --> 0:26:03.960
<v Speaker 1>for every two for every woman at the senior level

0:26:04.359 --> 0:26:08.040
<v Speaker 1>who gets promoted, two are leaving the company ouch and

0:26:08.119 --> 0:26:11.400
<v Speaker 1>that women are leaving their companies at higher levels than

0:26:11.480 --> 0:26:14.800
<v Speaker 1>man So that kind of stuff does show that women

0:26:14.840 --> 0:26:17.600
<v Speaker 1>are making changes. And it doesn't always mean that they're

0:26:17.640 --> 0:26:20.919
<v Speaker 1>leaving their workforce, but it can mean that they're moving

0:26:20.920 --> 0:26:23.119
<v Speaker 1>on to another employer which might not be good for

0:26:23.160 --> 0:26:26.120
<v Speaker 1>your pipeline, or that they're moving to a less demanding

0:26:26.160 --> 0:26:28.760
<v Speaker 1>position for the time being. Interesting story. I love this

0:26:28.800 --> 0:26:31.840
<v Speaker 1>idea of returnships like that is certainly a new concept

0:26:31.840 --> 0:26:34.080
<v Speaker 1>I hadn't heard, so I'm so glad you were able

0:26:34.119 --> 0:26:35.800
<v Speaker 1>to shed some light on what's going on in that

0:26:36.640 --> 0:26:39.719
<v Speaker 1>as well. Bloomberg News Economics to putter Janelle Marte. She's

0:26:39.840 --> 0:26:42.600
<v Speaker 1>in our Washington, DC bureau and our thanks to the

0:26:42.720 --> 0:26:45.320
<v Speaker 1>editor Bloomberg Business Week, Joel Webber here in studio. This

0:26:45.400 --> 0:26:47.639
<v Speaker 1>is in the new issue at Bloomberg Business Week, on newstands,

0:26:47.720 --> 0:26:51.080
<v Speaker 1>online and on the Bloomberg check it out. You're listening

0:26:51.119 --> 0:26:54.919
<v Speaker 1>to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live weekdays

0:26:54.960 --> 0:26:57.960
<v Speaker 1>from two to five pm Easter on Bloomberg Radio. The

0:26:58.040 --> 0:27:01.160
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business A band you do. You can also listen

0:27:01.280 --> 0:27:04.800
<v Speaker 1>live to our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa

0:27:05.040 --> 0:27:10.040
<v Speaker 1>play Bloomberg e Love and Dirty, riding a few freeways,

0:27:10.040 --> 0:27:12.760
<v Speaker 1>I bet in a pint And around the La area

0:27:12.760 --> 0:27:15.960
<v Speaker 1>and around California is Ross Gerber. And you might recall

0:27:16.000 --> 0:27:19.000
<v Speaker 1>it was just one week ago after the close, or

0:27:19.000 --> 0:27:22.000
<v Speaker 1>I think or just around the close, Ross Gerber, vocal

0:27:22.080 --> 0:27:24.960
<v Speaker 1>Tesla shareholder, the news came out that he would drop

0:27:25.000 --> 0:27:27.280
<v Speaker 1>his bid for a board seat at Tesla. And just

0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:29.600
<v Speaker 1>this week he was in Austin at the Tesla Investor

0:27:29.680 --> 0:27:32.920
<v Speaker 1>Day on Wednesday. So we've got a million questions for him.

0:27:33.280 --> 0:27:36.400
<v Speaker 1>He is a Tesla investor, car owner, fan, sometime critic

0:27:36.560 --> 0:27:39.480
<v Speaker 1>or at least concerned about where the company's going. He

0:27:39.680 --> 0:27:42.640
<v Speaker 1>is CEO at Gerber Kawasaki Wealth Management, joining SVA Zoom

0:27:42.640 --> 0:27:46.280
<v Speaker 1>from Santa Monica, California. Ross, how are you. I'm good.

0:27:46.320 --> 0:27:48.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm a little tired, to be honest. It was quite

0:27:48.160 --> 0:27:50.479
<v Speaker 1>a quite a week and it's always graping with the

0:27:50.480 --> 0:27:53.240
<v Speaker 1>Tesla community because you know, Tesla's one thing, and then

0:27:53.280 --> 0:27:56.159
<v Speaker 1>the community of people around Tesla is phenomenal. So it

0:27:56.240 --> 0:27:58.240
<v Speaker 1>was really fun. A couple of days. We'll take us there,

0:27:58.280 --> 0:28:01.640
<v Speaker 1>bur eisen Ears, snows and toes. At that Tesla event,

0:28:01.720 --> 0:28:03.760
<v Speaker 1>what you saw, what the mood was, what was being

0:28:03.800 --> 0:28:07.760
<v Speaker 1>talked about, and you know what you actually got from

0:28:07.880 --> 0:28:10.560
<v Speaker 1>maybe Tesla executives leading up to it, because my understanding

0:28:10.600 --> 0:28:13.760
<v Speaker 1>is you were gonna have some conversations, right, Well, it

0:28:13.800 --> 0:28:16.520
<v Speaker 1>turned out to be very difficult because there were about

0:28:16.560 --> 0:28:20.080
<v Speaker 1>three hundred analysts there and all the executives you know,

0:28:20.119 --> 0:28:21.960
<v Speaker 1>were there, but it was a little bit of a

0:28:21.960 --> 0:28:23.920
<v Speaker 1>mob scene so to really have like sort of a

0:28:23.960 --> 0:28:26.120
<v Speaker 1>real conversation. So it's kind of like I'll send you

0:28:26.160 --> 0:28:29.480
<v Speaker 1>more information. You know. It's like it was quite an event.

0:28:29.520 --> 0:28:32.520
<v Speaker 1>But I think what most people didn't get by just

0:28:32.600 --> 0:28:35.040
<v Speaker 1>watching the presentation was I was able to tour the

0:28:35.040 --> 0:28:37.840
<v Speaker 1>factory before the presentation, so there was a lot of

0:28:37.840 --> 0:28:40.160
<v Speaker 1>things I was able to see that when they started

0:28:40.200 --> 0:28:43.200
<v Speaker 1>talking about it was sort of like putting in context

0:28:43.320 --> 0:28:45.560
<v Speaker 1>the things that I had seen and what I saw

0:28:45.560 --> 0:28:48.840
<v Speaker 1>in Austin was phenomenal, you know, like they have grown

0:28:48.880 --> 0:28:51.600
<v Speaker 1>that factory so much from when I was there a

0:28:51.680 --> 0:28:53.800
<v Speaker 1>year ago for the opening and there was nothing going on,

0:28:54.200 --> 0:28:57.760
<v Speaker 1>and so Tesla's really just in a lot of ways

0:28:57.800 --> 0:29:01.120
<v Speaker 1>at the beginning of their next stage age. And what

0:29:01.200 --> 0:29:03.240
<v Speaker 1>I really got out of the event was that the

0:29:03.280 --> 0:29:06.840
<v Speaker 1>moat around Tesla's business is as deep as it's ever been.

0:29:06.920 --> 0:29:09.440
<v Speaker 1>I really thought, wait, wait, wait, where's the ros gerber

0:29:09.560 --> 0:29:12.840
<v Speaker 1>who wanted a board seat and was worried about distraction

0:29:12.920 --> 0:29:16.360
<v Speaker 1>with Elon Musk bring them back here? You were not

0:29:16.360 --> 0:29:19.600
<v Speaker 1>all a little disappointed that there wasn't an unvailing of

0:29:19.600 --> 0:29:23.040
<v Speaker 1>a new vehicle. No, I wasn't disappointed at all, because

0:29:23.120 --> 0:29:25.520
<v Speaker 1>that's a vehicle unveiling event and that's much more like

0:29:25.560 --> 0:29:28.360
<v Speaker 1>a party. But it's really about but goat wait wait wait, wait,

0:29:28.360 --> 0:29:30.040
<v Speaker 1>wait wait wait wait. Because I know our audience wants

0:29:30.040 --> 0:29:31.800
<v Speaker 1>to know this, and you've been so generous with your

0:29:31.800 --> 0:29:35.680
<v Speaker 1>time over the years talking Tesla, why did you drop

0:29:35.760 --> 0:29:38.760
<v Speaker 1>your run for a board seat? Well it was a

0:29:38.760 --> 0:29:41.360
<v Speaker 1>couple of reasons, but so really what it came down

0:29:41.400 --> 0:29:44.239
<v Speaker 1>to is I love Tesla as a company. I'm an

0:29:44.280 --> 0:29:46.800
<v Speaker 1>investor in the company, but I'm also a climate activist

0:29:46.800 --> 0:29:49.440
<v Speaker 1>and I think it's a critically important company to solving

0:29:49.520 --> 0:29:52.479
<v Speaker 1>climate and making a better world for for my children

0:29:52.520 --> 0:29:55.040
<v Speaker 1>and all of us. So you know, it's it's really

0:29:55.080 --> 0:29:58.160
<v Speaker 1>important for me to see them be successful, irrelevant financial

0:29:58.160 --> 0:30:01.920
<v Speaker 1>side of it, and what Elon's doing is really at

0:30:01.960 --> 0:30:05.520
<v Speaker 1>Twitter has really i think changed a focus in his

0:30:06.080 --> 0:30:08.680
<v Speaker 1>in a lot of ways away from these critically important

0:30:08.680 --> 0:30:12.080
<v Speaker 1>issues that Tesla faces. So that hasn't changed in my opinion.

0:30:13.200 --> 0:30:15.400
<v Speaker 1>Just as much as I still love Tesla, I still

0:30:15.400 --> 0:30:18.200
<v Speaker 1>have these issues with Elon, but I think, you know,

0:30:18.600 --> 0:30:22.440
<v Speaker 1>said drop your pursuit because the board wasn't really going

0:30:22.520 --> 0:30:25.120
<v Speaker 1>to get me anywhere, to be honest. So what I

0:30:25.240 --> 0:30:27.320
<v Speaker 1>realized is that I don't want to get into this

0:30:27.440 --> 0:30:31.120
<v Speaker 1>battle with Elon and board members where I'm spending all

0:30:31.120 --> 0:30:33.840
<v Speaker 1>this time just fighting with them, because the truth is,

0:30:33.880 --> 0:30:35.320
<v Speaker 1>even if I made it on the board, none of

0:30:35.360 --> 0:30:37.640
<v Speaker 1>those board members were going to support me anyways. They

0:30:37.680 --> 0:30:40.480
<v Speaker 1>all have their own agenda. And so what I realized

0:30:40.520 --> 0:30:42.320
<v Speaker 1>when I started the board bid to when I dropped

0:30:42.320 --> 0:30:44.080
<v Speaker 1>the board bid, which was a couple of weeks, was

0:30:44.160 --> 0:30:46.600
<v Speaker 1>that everybody on the board spent the entire time in

0:30:46.680 --> 0:30:49.840
<v Speaker 1>court for Elon, that he had all these cases, and

0:30:49.880 --> 0:30:52.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm like, if I go onto the board, I'm going

0:30:52.240 --> 0:30:55.720
<v Speaker 1>to end up in court defending cases all the time, Like,

0:30:56.040 --> 0:30:58.040
<v Speaker 1>that's not what I'm trying to do. What I'm trying

0:30:58.080 --> 0:31:00.160
<v Speaker 1>to do is make Tesla a better company. And it

0:31:00.480 --> 0:31:02.719
<v Speaker 1>really just became obvious to me that I could do

0:31:02.760 --> 0:31:05.120
<v Speaker 1>that without being on the board, and in fact, being

0:31:05.160 --> 0:31:08.000
<v Speaker 1>on the board would be would actually not get those

0:31:08.000 --> 0:31:10.640
<v Speaker 1>things done. So I realized I had made my point.

0:31:10.680 --> 0:31:12.560
<v Speaker 1>The company heard me, and I think a lot of

0:31:12.600 --> 0:31:14.560
<v Speaker 1>what they were showing us an investor day was trying

0:31:14.600 --> 0:31:16.200
<v Speaker 1>to show the depth of the company, and that's been

0:31:16.200 --> 0:31:18.719
<v Speaker 1>one of my criticism is the secession planning. And what

0:31:18.720 --> 0:31:21.240
<v Speaker 1>we learned was that Tom Shoe, for example, has taken

0:31:21.280 --> 0:31:24.280
<v Speaker 1>over his global production. I thought that was great news.

0:31:24.280 --> 0:31:27.360
<v Speaker 1>He's a really competent executive. I think the team they're

0:31:27.440 --> 0:31:30.880
<v Speaker 1>super sharp. But I'm still very concerned because Elon is

0:31:30.920 --> 0:31:34.360
<v Speaker 1>the driver of all things great at Tesla, and you know,

0:31:34.400 --> 0:31:36.520
<v Speaker 1>the biggest risk is if something happens to Elon and

0:31:36.600 --> 0:31:40.200
<v Speaker 1>his distractions. Was this more to show that Tesla has

0:31:40.200 --> 0:31:45.320
<v Speaker 1>a deep bench while Elon does get distracted with other

0:31:45.600 --> 0:31:48.680
<v Speaker 1>ventures that he's doing. Whether obviously last year there was

0:31:48.880 --> 0:31:51.520
<v Speaker 1>everything going on with Twitter, but was this war of

0:31:51.560 --> 0:31:54.840
<v Speaker 1>a show for investors to kind of prove that if

0:31:54.840 --> 0:31:58.640
<v Speaker 1>he does get distracted, there are other people there. Yeah,

0:31:58.640 --> 0:32:01.040
<v Speaker 1>and I think, you know, he wanted to show the

0:32:01.080 --> 0:32:03.640
<v Speaker 1>competency and the projects that these people were working on.

0:32:03.880 --> 0:32:07.040
<v Speaker 1>But I think what was you know, what wasn't shown

0:32:07.160 --> 0:32:10.200
<v Speaker 1>there that was still the problem is that Elan is

0:32:10.240 --> 0:32:14.280
<v Speaker 1>still driving all the critical decisions being made by these teams,

0:32:14.320 --> 0:32:17.760
<v Speaker 1>and so he still is critically important to Tesla. In fact,

0:32:18.000 --> 0:32:20.280
<v Speaker 1>he didn't prove to me at all that he's not

0:32:20.400 --> 0:32:23.520
<v Speaker 1>critically important to Tesla. And in fact, what I learned

0:32:23.640 --> 0:32:27.120
<v Speaker 1>being there is that they have three incredible challenges ahead

0:32:27.120 --> 0:32:29.560
<v Speaker 1>of them over the next year, which include getting full

0:32:29.560 --> 0:32:32.640
<v Speaker 1>self driving to actually work, and getting forty six eighty

0:32:32.680 --> 0:32:35.800
<v Speaker 1>cells to actually work, and getting the cyber truck to

0:32:35.880 --> 0:32:39.280
<v Speaker 1>actually work. And so you know, I saw the cyber truck.

0:32:39.320 --> 0:32:40.880
<v Speaker 1>I was touching the cyber truck. I'm like, this is

0:32:40.920 --> 0:32:43.320
<v Speaker 1>the coolest truck ever. But we gotta make trucks. And

0:32:43.800 --> 0:32:45.800
<v Speaker 1>so this is my concern. I think that risk is

0:32:46.320 --> 0:32:50.720
<v Speaker 1>very real for Tesla, which is execution risk? Interesting? Okay,

0:32:50.760 --> 0:32:52.560
<v Speaker 1>So well, so if you were sitting so you have

0:32:52.640 --> 0:32:57.680
<v Speaker 1>had no conversations with Elon directly recently. No, No, if

0:32:57.680 --> 0:32:59.600
<v Speaker 1>you could sit down with him, what would you say,

0:32:59.720 --> 0:33:03.160
<v Speaker 1>or you ask, well, this is what so? This is

0:33:03.200 --> 0:33:06.320
<v Speaker 1>what I learned also this week is that I have

0:33:06.360 --> 0:33:11.200
<v Speaker 1>a fundamental disagreement philosophically with the way Elon sees the

0:33:11.280 --> 0:33:14.280
<v Speaker 1>value of advertising. And I find it ironic that he

0:33:14.280 --> 0:33:17.680
<v Speaker 1>owns a social media company where he pitches advertising to

0:33:18.240 --> 0:33:21.600
<v Speaker 1>lots of people and then doesn't believe in it himself

0:33:21.720 --> 0:33:26.080
<v Speaker 1>at all, you know, and like, so I was basically like, look,

0:33:26.120 --> 0:33:28.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to put together a proposal and explain to

0:33:28.200 --> 0:33:31.960
<v Speaker 1>you how advertising creates demand and allows you not to

0:33:32.000 --> 0:33:35.520
<v Speaker 1>have to lower prices of vehicles per se to stimulate demand.

0:33:35.840 --> 0:33:39.120
<v Speaker 1>And they fundamentally just believe in the economics of if

0:33:39.160 --> 0:33:41.240
<v Speaker 1>I lower price, I'll have more customers. And he said

0:33:41.240 --> 0:33:43.480
<v Speaker 1>it several times. If I keep lowering the price, there's

0:33:43.480 --> 0:33:46.000
<v Speaker 1>an unlimited demand. And that's true because if you give

0:33:46.040 --> 0:33:50.240
<v Speaker 1>away cars, everybody will get a Tesla. Right. So the

0:33:50.360 --> 0:33:53.360
<v Speaker 1>idea of a premium product like LBMH is a company

0:33:53.440 --> 0:33:56.280
<v Speaker 1>I follow very closely, and they sell premium products. And

0:33:56.440 --> 0:33:59.280
<v Speaker 1>when we buy a premium alcohol, it's really the same

0:33:59.360 --> 0:34:02.600
<v Speaker 1>Baca great, good, look at Apple, right, I mean, you pay,

0:34:02.520 --> 0:34:04.720
<v Speaker 1>yeah a lot for Apple products and they don't put

0:34:04.760 --> 0:34:08.279
<v Speaker 1>in from sale, right an Apple never has to put

0:34:08.280 --> 0:34:10.799
<v Speaker 1>things on sale. And Apple has low end phones that

0:34:10.880 --> 0:34:14.000
<v Speaker 1>you don't really like, see like they'll sell refurbished phones.

0:34:14.120 --> 0:34:16.239
<v Speaker 1>But I was just saying this because I really want

0:34:16.280 --> 0:34:19.200
<v Speaker 1>Tesla to be more like Apple. That whether you're wealthy

0:34:19.440 --> 0:34:21.839
<v Speaker 1>or whether you're not wealthy, if you both have an

0:34:21.840 --> 0:34:26.319
<v Speaker 1>iPhone and you pull it out, wealthy people don't feel like, oh,

0:34:26.360 --> 0:34:28.920
<v Speaker 1>everybody has an iPhone, I need a better phone, you know,

0:34:28.960 --> 0:34:31.879
<v Speaker 1>Like they don't think that because they appeal to all

0:34:31.920 --> 0:34:34.919
<v Speaker 1>the markets through their marketing, and so everybody who owns

0:34:34.920 --> 0:34:37.000
<v Speaker 1>an iPhone feels good about it. And I think that's

0:34:37.080 --> 0:34:40.560
<v Speaker 1>the risk that Tesla becomes too much like Toyota and

0:34:40.600 --> 0:34:43.239
<v Speaker 1>then they lose the high end business. I wanted to

0:34:43.239 --> 0:34:46.719
<v Speaker 1>point out how select Tesla's supercharger stations in the US

0:34:46.800 --> 0:34:49.920
<v Speaker 1>are now open to non Tesla evs, and our equities

0:34:49.960 --> 0:34:52.359
<v Speaker 1>reporter Estra Day has done a great job covering all

0:34:52.360 --> 0:34:54.279
<v Speaker 1>of this and something I wanted to ask because I

0:34:54.320 --> 0:34:56.160
<v Speaker 1>know you had been tweeting about how you thought this

0:34:56.160 --> 0:34:58.960
<v Speaker 1>could potentially be a great business idea, but it is

0:34:58.960 --> 0:35:02.560
<v Speaker 1>a low Morgin business. So what is it about that

0:35:02.560 --> 0:35:08.040
<v Speaker 1>that you think would actually benefit for Tesla. Well, I

0:35:08.080 --> 0:35:10.880
<v Speaker 1>think charging can actually be a profitable business if you

0:35:10.920 --> 0:35:14.120
<v Speaker 1>do it renewably. And I asked Elon about this months

0:35:14.120 --> 0:35:16.120
<v Speaker 1>ago and they said that they have about a ten

0:35:16.160 --> 0:35:19.680
<v Speaker 1>percent margin on charging, so they do make money on charging,

0:35:19.880 --> 0:35:22.040
<v Speaker 1>and I think they're very good at it, and with

0:35:22.080 --> 0:35:24.360
<v Speaker 1>their battery and solar systems, I think they can deploy

0:35:24.440 --> 0:35:28.160
<v Speaker 1>charging profitably. But but I think it's also the ancillary

0:35:28.200 --> 0:35:30.879
<v Speaker 1>benefit of having the charging network and the power that

0:35:30.880 --> 0:35:34.000
<v Speaker 1>that has, of having the best and most reliable global

0:35:34.080 --> 0:35:37.439
<v Speaker 1>charging network, you know, it's really like forward owning all

0:35:37.440 --> 0:35:40.600
<v Speaker 1>the gas stations. Like, boy, that's good idea, you know.

0:35:40.880 --> 0:35:43.280
<v Speaker 1>But I think opening it up to other EV companies

0:35:43.320 --> 0:35:46.239
<v Speaker 1>at first I was like, oh, this super helps their competitors,

0:35:46.239 --> 0:35:48.960
<v Speaker 1>which it does, but the competitors are still having trouble

0:35:49.040 --> 0:35:53.280
<v Speaker 1>making cars, so Tesla's like still so far ahead. So honestly,

0:35:53.360 --> 0:35:55.000
<v Speaker 1>I think it's one of the best things for EV

0:35:55.120 --> 0:35:58.160
<v Speaker 1>adoption in the world. Biden created this plan where he

0:35:58.200 --> 0:36:01.279
<v Speaker 1>gave companies incentives to open up their networks. They're opening

0:36:01.320 --> 0:36:03.960
<v Speaker 1>up they're charging networked like Tesla, and that will increase

0:36:04.040 --> 0:36:08.319
<v Speaker 1>EVY adoption greatly. So I think over time that's a

0:36:08.400 --> 0:36:10.440
<v Speaker 1>huge win from Tesla, but it's also a huge win

0:36:10.760 --> 0:36:13.359
<v Speaker 1>for the industry. Hey, ross two quick questions. First of all,

0:36:13.400 --> 0:36:16.920
<v Speaker 1>Tesla shares they kind of tanked following that Investor Day meeting.

0:36:17.120 --> 0:36:19.239
<v Speaker 1>H A lot of people were just disappointed. Were you

0:36:19.320 --> 0:36:23.759
<v Speaker 1>buying on that decline? Well? No, unfortunately, you know, because

0:36:23.800 --> 0:36:26.040
<v Speaker 1>of the rules. I actually every time I'm on a show,

0:36:26.160 --> 0:36:28.759
<v Speaker 1>I'm not allowed to do anything with the stocks that

0:36:28.800 --> 0:36:31.520
<v Speaker 1>I talk about. You know, So we had so I

0:36:31.560 --> 0:36:34.799
<v Speaker 1>wasn't able to buy yesterday. Uh you know, were you

0:36:35.040 --> 0:36:37.440
<v Speaker 1>But if you add where you have if you could have,

0:36:38.400 --> 0:36:41.479
<v Speaker 1>well I buy Tesla. You know, every time it goes down,

0:36:41.760 --> 0:36:44.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, and and you know, once again, we're long

0:36:44.320 --> 0:36:47.720
<v Speaker 1>term investors and every client has a different situation somewhere.

0:36:47.719 --> 0:36:49.600
<v Speaker 1>Our clients have too much Tesla, you know, right, Well,

0:36:49.600 --> 0:36:51.920
<v Speaker 1>maybe have too much in fact, some are crazy. And

0:36:52.880 --> 0:36:55.680
<v Speaker 1>but I think the idea is when you look at

0:36:55.719 --> 0:36:58.239
<v Speaker 1>all the stocks you could buy, Tesla is still one

0:36:58.239 --> 0:37:01.000
<v Speaker 1>of the most exciting and consequential companies in the world,

0:37:01.280 --> 0:37:03.080
<v Speaker 1>and it's like, why wouldn't you want to own this

0:37:03.120 --> 0:37:05.720
<v Speaker 1>in your portfolio? Now? I do think it's properly valued

0:37:05.760 --> 0:37:07.480
<v Speaker 1>here in around two hundred dollars a share, right. I

0:37:07.520 --> 0:37:09.719
<v Speaker 1>think the sell the news things happens all the time

0:37:09.719 --> 0:37:12.000
<v Speaker 1>with Tesla. Every event they've done, it's like it sells

0:37:12.040 --> 0:37:14.800
<v Speaker 1>off the next day. At rallybacks today it's like, whatever,

0:37:14.920 --> 0:37:17.719
<v Speaker 1>all right, we gotta run, Ross, Gerbert, thank you so much.

0:37:17.760 --> 0:37:21.400
<v Speaker 1>President and Chief executive Officer Gerbert Cowsake Wealth and Investment

0:37:21.440 --> 0:37:24.480
<v Speaker 1>Management via Zoom from Santa Monica, California. Tesla has been

0:37:24.520 --> 0:37:26.840
<v Speaker 1>on quite a run. As Ross mentioned, it's up sixty

0:37:26.920 --> 0:37:32.160
<v Speaker 1>one so far in twenty twenty three. This is Bloomberg

0:37:32.280 --> 0:37:35.839
<v Speaker 1>business Week Inside from the reporters and editors who bring

0:37:35.880 --> 0:37:40.160
<v Speaker 1>you America's most trusted business magazine, plus global business, finance

0:37:40.239 --> 0:37:44.280
<v Speaker 1>and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week Podcast with Carol

0:37:44.360 --> 0:37:51.120
<v Speaker 1>Messer and Tim Stenebec from Bloomberg Radio. Bitcoin dropping to

0:37:51.160 --> 0:37:53.520
<v Speaker 1>its lowest level about two weeks part of a wider

0:37:53.560 --> 0:37:57.360
<v Speaker 1>retreat in crypto markets as investors digest the unraveling of

0:37:57.400 --> 0:37:59.520
<v Speaker 1>a key industry payments network. You know, we've been talking

0:37:59.520 --> 0:38:03.080
<v Speaker 1>about it here at Bloomberg Silvergate Capital. Well, the calls

0:38:03.239 --> 0:38:08.400
<v Speaker 1>for greater cryptoregulation they do continue addressing that. Yesterday, Gary Gainsler,

0:38:08.440 --> 0:38:11.040
<v Speaker 1>he's chairman of the SEC, he showed up and spoke

0:38:11.080 --> 0:38:13.640
<v Speaker 1>at the Bloomberg Market Structure conference. He also spoke with

0:38:13.680 --> 0:38:17.760
<v Speaker 1>our Bloomberg Technology TV team. Check it out. There's nothing

0:38:17.920 --> 0:38:24.960
<v Speaker 1>incompatible crypto and our securities laws. Our securities laws were

0:38:25.080 --> 0:38:29.759
<v Speaker 1>brought about to protect the investing public against fraud and

0:38:30.000 --> 0:38:34.400
<v Speaker 1>schemes and manipulation, and it was through this idea of full,

0:38:34.640 --> 0:38:39.760
<v Speaker 1>fair and truthful disclosure. All right. That was Gary Gainsler,

0:38:39.840 --> 0:38:42.600
<v Speaker 1>chairman of the SEC, speaking Eddie Bloomberg event. There's a

0:38:42.600 --> 0:38:44.279
<v Speaker 1>lot going on in the world of crypto. I want

0:38:44.280 --> 0:38:46.160
<v Speaker 1>to get right to it and jump into it with

0:38:46.200 --> 0:38:49.160
<v Speaker 1>our guests. Back with us is Marco Santori. He's chief

0:38:49.239 --> 0:38:52.560
<v Speaker 1>legal officer at Kraken. He joins us on zoo. Marco,

0:38:52.760 --> 0:38:55.399
<v Speaker 1>it's great to have you here with us. It does

0:38:55.520 --> 0:38:58.560
<v Speaker 1>feel like every day we walk in our every overnight

0:38:58.640 --> 0:39:01.560
<v Speaker 1>there's some news when it comes to a crypto and

0:39:01.600 --> 0:39:04.839
<v Speaker 1>another crack if you will, and you guys alone, you know,

0:39:05.480 --> 0:39:08.240
<v Speaker 1>as the world in the industry of crypto kind of evolves.

0:39:08.280 --> 0:39:10.840
<v Speaker 1>You made a deal to pay about thirty million to

0:39:10.840 --> 0:39:14.359
<v Speaker 1>settle sec allegations that you broke the agency's rules with

0:39:14.400 --> 0:39:18.040
<v Speaker 1>its crypto asset staking products and will discontinue them in

0:39:18.080 --> 0:39:21.200
<v Speaker 1>the US as part of the deal. Just big broad

0:39:21.320 --> 0:39:24.080
<v Speaker 1>thoughts right now, Marco on, how do you characterize the

0:39:24.200 --> 0:39:27.160
<v Speaker 1>carnage and the fallout that we've seen in the past

0:39:27.200 --> 0:39:30.759
<v Speaker 1>six months, twelve months when it comes to crypto, Yeah,

0:39:30.880 --> 0:39:33.160
<v Speaker 1>thank you, thank you for having me. If i'd characterize

0:39:33.200 --> 0:39:34.600
<v Speaker 1>it in one way, I would say it is a

0:39:34.680 --> 0:39:38.719
<v Speaker 1>blast from the past. Twenty twenty three harkens back to

0:39:38.760 --> 0:39:42.920
<v Speaker 1>twenty thirteen in all of the wrong ways. We've got

0:39:42.960 --> 0:39:47.200
<v Speaker 1>an unclear regulatory environment, regulators who are more interested in

0:39:49.520 --> 0:39:52.839
<v Speaker 1>racking up settlement wins and settlement dollars and then getting

0:39:52.880 --> 0:39:55.480
<v Speaker 1>clear rules of the road to the industry, and got

0:39:55.560 --> 0:40:00.680
<v Speaker 1>banking that favors incumbents over innovators. It is a tough time.

0:40:01.560 --> 0:40:03.600
<v Speaker 1>It is a tough time in crypto, and every week

0:40:04.120 --> 0:40:08.160
<v Speaker 1>seems to bring new new news, just a drum beat

0:40:08.400 --> 0:40:13.360
<v Speaker 1>of strange, unanticipated left turns, just like silver Gate Capital

0:40:13.840 --> 0:40:16.000
<v Speaker 1>this week. When you're seeing the movement there as far

0:40:16.040 --> 0:40:20.880
<v Speaker 1>as that exposure, obviously, when it's just the weights linked

0:40:20.880 --> 0:40:23.880
<v Speaker 1>to the dramatic decline and the collapse over FTX, and

0:40:23.880 --> 0:40:26.840
<v Speaker 1>obviously the correlation there when it comes to those cryptocurrencies.

0:40:26.880 --> 0:40:28.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean, do you expect to see this type of

0:40:28.600 --> 0:40:31.840
<v Speaker 1>fallout continue to happen to other companies that are exposed

0:40:31.880 --> 0:40:34.960
<v Speaker 1>towards that. I think we're really seeing the tal end.

0:40:35.080 --> 0:40:37.680
<v Speaker 1>Just to be upfront with it, I really see we

0:40:37.719 --> 0:40:40.440
<v Speaker 1>are seeing. I really believe we are seeing the tail end.

0:40:41.360 --> 0:40:45.120
<v Speaker 1>Twenty twenty one and some of twenty twenty two brought

0:40:45.200 --> 0:40:49.200
<v Speaker 1>some pretty irrational exuberance and some pretty irrational loosening of

0:40:49.280 --> 0:40:52.879
<v Speaker 1>lending standards. I think that much is indisputable. You have

0:40:53.680 --> 0:40:58.240
<v Speaker 1>Luna Tera, you have FTX, all of these interrelated lending

0:40:59.080 --> 0:41:03.400
<v Speaker 1>efforts that just took too much risk, too quickly, And

0:41:03.520 --> 0:41:06.200
<v Speaker 1>turns out some of the banks may have done the

0:41:06.239 --> 0:41:08.799
<v Speaker 1>same thing too. I don't have any insight information there

0:41:08.840 --> 0:41:11.959
<v Speaker 1>to share, but that's certainly what it what it looks

0:41:12.000 --> 0:41:14.160
<v Speaker 1>like out there. Why did you guys choose to settle

0:41:14.600 --> 0:41:18.640
<v Speaker 1>UM while other firms are really fighting the SEC on this?

0:41:19.160 --> 0:41:20.560
<v Speaker 1>And do you expect other firms are going to have

0:41:20.600 --> 0:41:23.759
<v Speaker 1>to follow suit and shutting down their own US staking operations?

0:41:23.800 --> 0:41:26.759
<v Speaker 1>But first up, why did you guys settle? Yeah? I'm

0:41:26.840 --> 0:41:28.640
<v Speaker 1>limited in how much I can speak about that the

0:41:29.640 --> 0:41:34.040
<v Speaker 1>settlement obligates us to neither admit nor deny, and that's

0:41:34.120 --> 0:41:36.360
<v Speaker 1>that's what I'll do today. I'll neither admit nor deny,

0:41:36.760 --> 0:41:41.040
<v Speaker 1>but I can speak to the issues that all of

0:41:41.160 --> 0:41:43.800
<v Speaker 1>us in the industry are facing. We have a regulator

0:41:43.800 --> 0:41:45.800
<v Speaker 1>who says he has all the tools he needs to

0:41:45.880 --> 0:41:50.759
<v Speaker 1>regulate crypto, and it's it's it's clear to it's clear

0:41:50.800 --> 0:41:54.080
<v Speaker 1>as day that the SEC has all the tools they

0:41:54.160 --> 0:41:58.920
<v Speaker 1>need to rack up settlements. But when industry participants go

0:41:59.000 --> 0:42:01.200
<v Speaker 1>into the SEC, as we've been welcome to do, as

0:42:01.239 --> 0:42:04.200
<v Speaker 1>the Chairman has welcomed us to do and told us

0:42:04.600 --> 0:42:07.080
<v Speaker 1>that his door is open, when we try to do that,

0:42:07.280 --> 0:42:09.360
<v Speaker 1>it is also clear as day that they do not

0:42:09.560 --> 0:42:13.840
<v Speaker 1>have the tools to actually create and support fair and

0:42:13.960 --> 0:42:19.439
<v Speaker 1>efficient markets or to drive capital, to try to drive

0:42:19.520 --> 0:42:22.080
<v Speaker 1>capital formation. Those are the Those are two of the

0:42:22.200 --> 0:42:25.920
<v Speaker 1>SEC's mandates that they are very clearly ill equipped to

0:42:26.000 --> 0:42:29.480
<v Speaker 1>do today without some action from Congress. When when we

0:42:29.600 --> 0:42:33.120
<v Speaker 1>go into the SEC, when other industry participants go into

0:42:33.120 --> 0:42:35.920
<v Speaker 1>the SEC to come in and register, as the Chairman

0:42:36.000 --> 0:42:38.440
<v Speaker 1>is set on many cases, it's just a form on

0:42:38.520 --> 0:42:41.680
<v Speaker 1>our website. It turns out that's not true. That is,

0:42:41.960 --> 0:42:44.160
<v Speaker 1>it is not just a form on. Is that why

0:42:44.200 --> 0:42:48.680
<v Speaker 1>you guys haven't done it, and why why we haven't

0:42:48.880 --> 0:42:52.400
<v Speaker 1>registered to comply with the US rules? It is. It

0:42:52.560 --> 0:42:55.800
<v Speaker 1>is utterly opaque to us and every other participant in

0:42:55.880 --> 0:42:58.680
<v Speaker 1>the ecosystem how we could do that. When we've gone

0:42:58.719 --> 0:43:01.080
<v Speaker 1>in and asked what are your expectations as a regulator,

0:43:01.360 --> 0:43:04.040
<v Speaker 1>they said, you've figured it out. That's your problem. And

0:43:04.200 --> 0:43:07.360
<v Speaker 1>that is a scathing thing to hear from your regulator,

0:43:07.480 --> 0:43:10.680
<v Speaker 1>from your government, particularly when you're working like I am

0:43:10.760 --> 0:43:13.600
<v Speaker 1>on behalf of innovators who are trying to create jobs

0:43:13.640 --> 0:43:17.279
<v Speaker 1>and trying to create efficiencies in the financial system. It

0:43:17.480 --> 0:43:22.000
<v Speaker 1>is plain as day that there is no path for registration.

0:43:22.080 --> 0:43:25.680
<v Speaker 1>There is no interest in creating a commercially viable path

0:43:25.800 --> 0:43:30.560
<v Speaker 1>that will keep customers and Americans on American soil using

0:43:30.800 --> 0:43:35.920
<v Speaker 1>American regulated platforms. It just doesn't exist today. Something I

0:43:36.160 --> 0:43:39.720
<v Speaker 1>was curious about is whether or not you're considering limiting

0:43:39.760 --> 0:43:43.480
<v Speaker 1>the tokens that you allow US customers to trade, just

0:43:43.760 --> 0:43:48.799
<v Speaker 1>given what's happening with the regulatory crackdown. We do limit

0:43:48.920 --> 0:43:51.960
<v Speaker 1>the tokens the customers trade, and we will continue to limit.

0:43:52.040 --> 0:43:55.520
<v Speaker 1>We have throughout our existence as a company for over

0:43:55.640 --> 0:44:00.440
<v Speaker 1>eleven years, Kraken has had a has had a robust

0:44:00.520 --> 0:44:03.560
<v Speaker 1>set of policies and procedures in place by which we

0:44:03.640 --> 0:44:06.960
<v Speaker 1>evaluate new tokens. Both from a business perspective, are these

0:44:07.040 --> 0:44:09.600
<v Speaker 1>tokens worth? It? Is the juice worth the squeeze? Should

0:44:09.600 --> 0:44:12.239
<v Speaker 1>we be listing this particular asset? But also from a

0:44:12.360 --> 0:44:15.400
<v Speaker 1>legal perspective, are these things the kinds of things that

0:44:15.480 --> 0:44:19.200
<v Speaker 1>we can list under existing law? If I told you

0:44:19.960 --> 0:44:22.040
<v Speaker 1>that was a clear and easy thing to do over

0:44:22.160 --> 0:44:24.960
<v Speaker 1>the last well now over a decade, I'd be lying

0:44:25.040 --> 0:44:26.920
<v Speaker 1>to you it has not been clear and easy. But

0:44:27.040 --> 0:44:29.680
<v Speaker 1>we do. We take great care in doing the best

0:44:29.800 --> 0:44:32.640
<v Speaker 1>that we can to figure out under existing law what

0:44:32.840 --> 0:44:35.480
<v Speaker 1>tokens are and are not securities, and we do not

0:44:35.680 --> 0:44:38.360
<v Speaker 1>list the ones that are security. I'm a little confused

0:44:38.400 --> 0:44:40.279
<v Speaker 1>because I am sure that you guys are as you said.

0:44:40.320 --> 0:44:42.680
<v Speaker 1>You have these conversations with regulators and so on and

0:44:42.840 --> 0:44:46.000
<v Speaker 1>so forth, and you're saying just even to register it's

0:44:46.040 --> 0:44:48.080
<v Speaker 1>not opaque. It's not easy. I mean, what is it

0:44:48.200 --> 0:44:52.319
<v Speaker 1>that specifically missing? Is it just them spelling it out?

0:44:52.480 --> 0:44:54.600
<v Speaker 1>What is it that's missing? What's the tools that are

0:44:54.680 --> 0:44:59.120
<v Speaker 1>missing right now? In order for the SEC to effectively

0:45:00.200 --> 0:45:04.000
<v Speaker 1>regulate this industry. Yeah, we haven't gone to them and

0:45:04.040 --> 0:45:05.920
<v Speaker 1>ask them to do our legal work for us. To

0:45:06.040 --> 0:45:08.840
<v Speaker 1>be clear, we have gone to them and ask them,

0:45:08.920 --> 0:45:11.680
<v Speaker 1>what is your what are your expectations around what we

0:45:11.760 --> 0:45:15.480
<v Speaker 1>ought to disclose? You say disclosure is a cornerstone of

0:45:16.200 --> 0:45:20.360
<v Speaker 1>American financial regulation. What are your expectations? What should we

0:45:20.440 --> 0:45:23.719
<v Speaker 1>be disclosing about, say a staking product? What should we

0:45:23.800 --> 0:45:27.160
<v Speaker 1>be disclosing about a new token that we would list.

0:45:27.600 --> 0:45:31.480
<v Speaker 1>What is our obligation to disclose versus the project behind

0:45:31.520 --> 0:45:34.680
<v Speaker 1>the token is? What is their obligations to disclose? If

0:45:34.719 --> 0:45:37.480
<v Speaker 1>we were going to register a product like say Staking,

0:45:37.840 --> 0:45:41.040
<v Speaker 1>What does registration of a product really mean in the

0:45:41.160 --> 0:45:43.839
<v Speaker 1>context of the securities laws as they exist to do? Marcer,

0:45:43.920 --> 0:45:46.000
<v Speaker 1>do you think that that folks forgive me for interrupting

0:45:46.040 --> 0:45:47.560
<v Speaker 1>ghosts were just running a dime? But do you think

0:45:47.600 --> 0:45:50.399
<v Speaker 1>that the folks in Washington and even the SEC chair

0:45:50.480 --> 0:45:55.719
<v Speaker 1>that they don't totally understand it. It's clear to me

0:45:55.920 --> 0:45:58.120
<v Speaker 1>that the SEC does not have the tools that they

0:45:58.200 --> 0:46:01.719
<v Speaker 1>need to regulate this correctly. Unfortunately, that's yes, right, that

0:46:01.760 --> 0:46:05.680
<v Speaker 1>they don't understand it. I think I think the staff

0:46:05.719 --> 0:46:08.359
<v Speaker 1>at the SEC has done a remarkable job over the year,

0:46:08.440 --> 0:46:10.759
<v Speaker 1>is not just coming up to speed, but now being

0:46:10.800 --> 0:46:13.080
<v Speaker 1>on the van guard of understanding those things. So actually,

0:46:13.120 --> 0:46:15.279
<v Speaker 1>it's a no, it's a no. These are these are

0:46:15.400 --> 0:46:18.800
<v Speaker 1>smart people. These are smart people who simply do not

0:46:19.000 --> 0:46:22.120
<v Speaker 1>have the tools from Congress that they need. I mean,

0:46:22.160 --> 0:46:24.279
<v Speaker 1>how long do you think it'll take to actually have

0:46:24.560 --> 0:46:28.880
<v Speaker 1>those tools? It has been a long time. Right. Meanwhile,

0:46:28.920 --> 0:46:33.799
<v Speaker 1>we have we have Finsen who not only administers civil jurisdiction,

0:46:33.920 --> 0:46:37.879
<v Speaker 1>but can impose criminal penalties for breaches of the money

0:46:37.960 --> 0:46:41.520
<v Speaker 1>services laws right for sanctions laws. They release guidance years ago.

0:46:42.000 --> 0:46:43.960
<v Speaker 1>They were able to do it, even with so much

0:46:44.120 --> 0:46:47.279
<v Speaker 1>more at stake. It's it's it is baffling to me,

0:46:47.360 --> 0:46:50.680
<v Speaker 1>and it should be baffling to anybody following along. Why

0:46:51.000 --> 0:46:54.480
<v Speaker 1>we haven't gotten at minimum clear guidance from the regulators,

0:46:54.880 --> 0:46:59.400
<v Speaker 1>even if Washington, even if Congress hasn't acted yet. Marco

0:46:59.480 --> 0:47:01.319
<v Speaker 1>really knew me and the rest of America. I hope

0:47:01.360 --> 0:47:04.279
<v Speaker 1>it happens soon, Marco. Really, it's there's so much going

0:47:04.320 --> 0:47:06.279
<v Speaker 1>on with this twenty seconds. Are you worried about the

0:47:06.360 --> 0:47:09.000
<v Speaker 1>sustainability of your own business because of kind of the

0:47:09.080 --> 0:47:13.480
<v Speaker 1>backdrop that we've seen in just very quickly. It's it's

0:47:13.520 --> 0:47:15.799
<v Speaker 1>shades of worry in crypto. It always has been. That's

0:47:15.840 --> 0:47:18.800
<v Speaker 1>what risk means. I, for one, have been at this

0:47:18.920 --> 0:47:22.000
<v Speaker 1>since twenty twelve. As a lawyer. I've been advising clients

0:47:22.040 --> 0:47:24.520
<v Speaker 1>for over a decade. I don't yet have the gray

0:47:24.600 --> 0:47:26.759
<v Speaker 1>hairs to show it, thank God, but I'm getting there.

0:47:26.840 --> 0:47:29.480
<v Speaker 1>Believe me. Every day I wake up and I count

0:47:29.520 --> 0:47:32.200
<v Speaker 1>my blessings that we still have the opportunity to innovate

0:47:32.280 --> 0:47:33.959
<v Speaker 1>and to do it here in the US. Well, listen,

0:47:34.000 --> 0:47:36.239
<v Speaker 1>we certainly appreciate your time with all that's going on,

0:47:36.480 --> 0:47:39.400
<v Speaker 1>so thank you so much for coming back. Marco Sentauri.

0:47:39.520 --> 0:47:42.759
<v Speaker 1>He's chief legal officer. Kraken joining us via zoom on

0:47:43.200 --> 0:47:47.320
<v Speaker 1>this Friday. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast.

0:47:47.600 --> 0:47:50.440
<v Speaker 1>Catch us live weekdays from two to five pm Eastern

0:47:50.640 --> 0:47:53.960
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio, The Bloomberg Business a band you Doo.

0:47:54.280 --> 0:47:57.360
<v Speaker 1>You can also listen live to our flagship New York station,

0:47:57.760 --> 0:48:06.360
<v Speaker 1>Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg. You love him dirty a

0:48:06.600 --> 0:48:10.080
<v Speaker 1>journal now, But you let me drive? No, no, no no,

0:48:10.320 --> 0:48:13.719
<v Speaker 1>who's going to drive home? Honey? Please? I'll do the

0:48:13.840 --> 0:48:21.000
<v Speaker 1>riding gravels. I want to drive. It's good question Drives.

0:48:23.520 --> 0:48:26.439
<v Speaker 1>This is the Drive to the Clothes down con Timu

0:48:26.640 --> 0:48:32.200
<v Speaker 1>than Well, Brier up, Jo down on Bloomberg Radio. All right, everybody,

0:48:32.280 --> 0:48:34.920
<v Speaker 1>just about seventeen minutes left in today's trading session, getting

0:48:34.920 --> 0:48:37.160
<v Speaker 1>ready to trap up the day, wrap up the day

0:48:37.280 --> 0:48:40.319
<v Speaker 1>and the week, and you've got a rally underway when

0:48:40.320 --> 0:48:42.000
<v Speaker 1>it comes to the equity trade. I'm looking at the

0:48:42.120 --> 0:48:44.880
<v Speaker 1>major industry groups in the S and P five hundred.

0:48:44.920 --> 0:48:48.200
<v Speaker 1>There are eleven of them. They're all up on the day,

0:48:48.280 --> 0:48:50.440
<v Speaker 1>Carol Master, along with Jess Manton. So let's get to it.

0:48:50.560 --> 0:48:52.840
<v Speaker 1>Let's get to the Drive to the Clothes with Jeff Crumpelman,

0:48:53.120 --> 0:48:56.640
<v Speaker 1>his chief Investments Drovegist, head of Equities at Mariner Wealth Advisors.

0:48:56.920 --> 0:48:59.719
<v Speaker 1>He is here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio app

0:48:59.719 --> 0:49:02.759
<v Speaker 1>bloom Headquarters. Good to have you back with us. We've

0:49:02.800 --> 0:49:06.760
<v Speaker 1>got a rally underway. January was good for stocks, February

0:49:06.880 --> 0:49:09.040
<v Speaker 1>not so good. And now it looks like we're seeing

0:49:09.080 --> 0:49:11.640
<v Speaker 1>some enthusiasm here in the early days of March. How

0:49:11.640 --> 0:49:15.040
<v Speaker 1>would you describe this equity environment right now? So you

0:49:15.120 --> 0:49:17.440
<v Speaker 1>know our message has been hold your ground through this,

0:49:17.840 --> 0:49:20.040
<v Speaker 1>and I tend to have a positive view. We think

0:49:20.120 --> 0:49:22.040
<v Speaker 1>through the end of the year that we're going to

0:49:22.080 --> 0:49:25.239
<v Speaker 1>be forty five hundred ish or above. So that's yeah.

0:49:25.760 --> 0:49:28.719
<v Speaker 1>People when they hear they just think, oh wow. On

0:49:28.880 --> 0:49:32.480
<v Speaker 1>radio Jess's eyes just open, like Mike Frying. I think

0:49:32.520 --> 0:49:35.920
<v Speaker 1>of say Bank of America or even Sevita over there

0:49:35.960 --> 0:49:38.319
<v Speaker 1>with their praise target of around four thousand, or if

0:49:38.320 --> 0:49:40.759
<v Speaker 1>you think of Mike Wilson's of the World or Work

0:49:40.800 --> 0:49:44.360
<v Speaker 1>in Stanley with around thirty nine hundred. It's interesting to

0:49:44.440 --> 0:49:47.840
<v Speaker 1>hear actually above those levels. Yeah, and that's not to

0:49:47.960 --> 0:49:50.680
<v Speaker 1>say that it's right away. So did you think that

0:49:50.719 --> 0:49:54.960
<v Speaker 1>last year's ground We did. As we moved through the year,

0:49:55.400 --> 0:49:58.600
<v Speaker 1>we felt now our message was last year, if you've

0:49:58.640 --> 0:50:01.600
<v Speaker 1>had three consecutive years of twenty six percent annual compound

0:50:01.600 --> 0:50:04.480
<v Speaker 1>and rate or return and your allocation has gone from

0:50:04.520 --> 0:50:07.000
<v Speaker 1>sixty percent equities to more than seventy as a result

0:50:07.040 --> 0:50:10.560
<v Speaker 1>of that, and you haven't rebalanced, please go back to normal.

0:50:10.760 --> 0:50:13.239
<v Speaker 1>Please cut back to normal. And oh, by the way,

0:50:13.320 --> 0:50:16.120
<v Speaker 1>passive management probably is not the place to be. We

0:50:16.239 --> 0:50:21.239
<v Speaker 1>embrace passive management in all times, but I would deemphasize

0:50:21.280 --> 0:50:24.719
<v Speaker 1>it and focus on active and our internal active strategies

0:50:24.760 --> 0:50:27.520
<v Speaker 1>really added value last year. So what we see this

0:50:27.680 --> 0:50:32.840
<v Speaker 1>year is fundamentals that are elusively. They're positive, they're you know,

0:50:33.000 --> 0:50:35.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of the folks that have been cheering for recession,

0:50:35.520 --> 0:50:37.919
<v Speaker 1>it just keeps getting pushed back. So the fundamentals are

0:50:37.960 --> 0:50:39.920
<v Speaker 1>pretty good, and we've got the PMI data out this

0:50:40.080 --> 0:50:43.880
<v Speaker 1>week that was surprisingly strong. And then you have valuation

0:50:43.960 --> 0:50:46.560
<v Speaker 1>that I think is reasonable, it's uh, you know, not

0:50:46.719 --> 0:50:49.160
<v Speaker 1>overly stretched. A lot of people might say, what are

0:50:49.200 --> 0:50:51.239
<v Speaker 1>you talking about? Right, That's what I was going to asking,

0:50:51.280 --> 0:50:52.719
<v Speaker 1>because you do get a lot of people will push

0:50:52.800 --> 0:50:55.640
<v Speaker 1>back on the valuations. You cannot make decisions on equid

0:50:55.719 --> 0:50:58.759
<v Speaker 1>market based upon valuation valuation. As long as the fundamentals

0:50:58.800 --> 0:51:04.919
<v Speaker 1>are solid and you have the technical sentiment either contrainly

0:51:05.080 --> 0:51:08.879
<v Speaker 1>negative which means more cash can come in, or you're

0:51:08.960 --> 0:51:12.719
<v Speaker 1>kind of at neutral levels. Hey, you can have slightly

0:51:13.000 --> 0:51:19.200
<v Speaker 1>expensive pees to significantly expensive pees, particularly when the WALLA

0:51:19.239 --> 0:51:27.320
<v Speaker 1>Warrior items are showing improvement, like inflation significantly coming in significantly.

0:51:27.520 --> 0:51:31.160
<v Speaker 1>Now the headlines say, oh, we're at decade highs, We're

0:51:31.200 --> 0:51:33.480
<v Speaker 1>at six and a half percent headline, Jeff, what are

0:51:33.520 --> 0:51:36.520
<v Speaker 1>you talking about? Well, we were at nine several months ago,

0:51:36.719 --> 0:51:39.080
<v Speaker 1>but we are still at decade highs. Hey, if you

0:51:39.200 --> 0:51:42.600
<v Speaker 1>check the data doesn't matter if you go if you

0:51:42.760 --> 0:51:50.320
<v Speaker 1>got the market cares about training again, well really it

0:51:50.400 --> 0:51:52.360
<v Speaker 1>really don't think so, No, I don't think so. I

0:51:52.440 --> 0:51:55.560
<v Speaker 1>think we had one data point. We had really warm

0:51:55.640 --> 0:51:58.120
<v Speaker 1>weather and oh boy, did anyone really check out the

0:51:58.200 --> 0:52:01.719
<v Speaker 1>facts of how it's calculated, and maybe the CPI went

0:52:01.880 --> 0:52:06.279
<v Speaker 1>from reuting. Okay, okay, So the reason you got that

0:52:06.400 --> 0:52:09.279
<v Speaker 1>tick up was partially as a result of that month

0:52:09.360 --> 0:52:13.040
<v Speaker 1>over month, year over year, we still came down rents.

0:52:13.239 --> 0:52:16.120
<v Speaker 1>If you look at rents, you're actually getting some disinflation

0:52:16.360 --> 0:52:19.080
<v Speaker 1>on new rents. So does it okay? Because we want

0:52:19.120 --> 0:52:21.120
<v Speaker 1>to talk ahead, I know you want to talk. Well,

0:52:21.160 --> 0:52:24.719
<v Speaker 1>I'm just going to save these between producer prices and

0:52:24.800 --> 0:52:28.400
<v Speaker 1>consumer prices actually turned positive for the first time whenever

0:52:28.480 --> 0:52:31.680
<v Speaker 1>we got the December data batch. That typically when I

0:52:31.800 --> 0:52:35.120
<v Speaker 1>talked to portfolio managers, sometimes they look toward producer prices

0:52:35.239 --> 0:52:39.200
<v Speaker 1>as glimmers of hope before it starts filtering into consumer prices.

0:52:39.360 --> 0:52:42.120
<v Speaker 1>Is that something that you watch closely as well? We

0:52:42.360 --> 0:52:45.600
<v Speaker 1>watch overall trend and you've gotten one month, we are

0:52:45.680 --> 0:52:48.120
<v Speaker 1>not going to get perfectly How much of a trend

0:52:48.239 --> 0:52:50.040
<v Speaker 1>of change would you need to see in order to

0:52:50.719 --> 0:52:53.840
<v Speaker 1>force the FED to change course? Not necessarily do potentially

0:52:53.880 --> 0:52:56.239
<v Speaker 1>another twenty five basis point high, but to move back

0:52:56.280 --> 0:52:59.480
<v Speaker 1>toward fifty. How many sam of Hodder data do you

0:52:59.520 --> 0:53:01.480
<v Speaker 1>think we would need to see? Like a quarter's worth

0:53:02.200 --> 0:53:05.239
<v Speaker 1>is two months enough? What do you think? Especially? I love,

0:53:05.400 --> 0:53:08.160
<v Speaker 1>I respect Larry Summers, but I think he's made a

0:53:08.280 --> 0:53:10.840
<v Speaker 1>number of statements that have not come to do you

0:53:10.960 --> 0:53:14.960
<v Speaker 1>think the FED should be done? Then? We think that

0:53:15.040 --> 0:53:17.040
<v Speaker 1>the FED will hike to five and a quarter to

0:53:17.160 --> 0:53:18.960
<v Speaker 1>five and a half. We'll probably get twenty five basis

0:53:19.040 --> 0:53:22.800
<v Speaker 1>points in the lane fed. Uh you know, Bostick just

0:53:22.920 --> 0:53:25.960
<v Speaker 1>came out and said, you know, probably twenty five. And

0:53:26.400 --> 0:53:29.200
<v Speaker 1>we think that based and built into our base case

0:53:29.239 --> 0:53:31.840
<v Speaker 1>for forty five hundred is a couple more FED hikes.

0:53:32.200 --> 0:53:34.600
<v Speaker 1>And here's what I see. I just a couple more,

0:53:35.040 --> 0:53:37.759
<v Speaker 1>a couple more. Okay, but hey, you know what we've

0:53:37.760 --> 0:53:41.720
<v Speaker 1>called the mary everyone's crabby and we're are FED funds

0:53:41.960 --> 0:53:44.040
<v Speaker 1>we're five percent? Do you know what average FED funds

0:53:44.160 --> 0:53:47.040
<v Speaker 1>is over the mark of time through history? Five? So

0:53:47.200 --> 0:53:50.799
<v Speaker 1>when I hear unprecedented. I'll tell you what's unprecedented was zero.

0:53:51.360 --> 0:53:53.359
<v Speaker 1>The other thing it was unprecedented, and we've talked about

0:53:53.400 --> 0:53:55.520
<v Speaker 1>that a lot here on air. Okay, So that at

0:53:55.560 --> 0:53:58.240
<v Speaker 1>the low rate, the negative like that was the unusual thing, folks.

0:53:58.400 --> 0:54:00.800
<v Speaker 1>This is more normal. So we're running a three percent

0:54:00.920 --> 0:54:04.839
<v Speaker 1>annualized pace. If you take the last quarter, we're down

0:54:04.880 --> 0:54:07.800
<v Speaker 1>to three. And I'm not bold enough to say this.

0:54:08.200 --> 0:54:10.560
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of peers that I talk to, smart

0:54:10.640 --> 0:54:12.840
<v Speaker 1>people that say, you know, Jeff, what we're going to

0:54:12.880 --> 0:54:14.880
<v Speaker 1>be talking about and the thing to worry about at

0:54:14.880 --> 0:54:18.640
<v Speaker 1>the end of the year is deflation disinflation, And when

0:54:18.680 --> 0:54:21.360
<v Speaker 1>those headlines hit, people are going to start worrying about

0:54:21.520 --> 0:54:23.640
<v Speaker 1>recession and oh my gosh, and we'll have them maybe

0:54:23.680 --> 0:54:27.919
<v Speaker 1>a moment then not inflation. I think we're coming down significantly.

0:54:28.000 --> 0:54:31.920
<v Speaker 1>Supply chain bottlenecks are solving themselves. And if you go

0:54:32.080 --> 0:54:34.520
<v Speaker 1>in and you talk to anybody, fifty percent of us

0:54:34.640 --> 0:54:36.920
<v Speaker 1>or in a new job, think about you. When you're

0:54:36.920 --> 0:54:38.320
<v Speaker 1>in a new job, you don't even know where the

0:54:38.360 --> 0:54:42.360
<v Speaker 1>water cooler is, right, So you can get a tremendous

0:54:42.400 --> 0:54:45.440
<v Speaker 1>increase in productivity over the next twelve months. That's been

0:54:45.520 --> 0:54:49.120
<v Speaker 1>missing and absent. It's been a wall, and in fact,

0:54:49.200 --> 0:54:51.440
<v Speaker 1>we finally had an uptick in Q four. If you

0:54:51.520 --> 0:54:54.920
<v Speaker 1>get productivity rising, you can raise unit labor costs, okay.

0:54:55.040 --> 0:54:58.960
<v Speaker 1>You can have wages increase without increasing, and you can

0:54:59.000 --> 0:55:02.200
<v Speaker 1>put through some increase book without it hitting the margin.

0:55:02.719 --> 0:55:05.040
<v Speaker 1>And if you get that, yeah, then we're talking a

0:55:05.080 --> 0:55:06.680
<v Speaker 1>different ballgame. All right. I'm a little mad at you

0:55:06.719 --> 0:55:08.080
<v Speaker 1>because there are a bunch of names I wanted to

0:55:08.120 --> 0:55:11.000
<v Speaker 1>talk about, but because I like you, we're gonna give

0:55:11.000 --> 0:55:13.680
<v Speaker 1>you a pass. Just come back soon, okay, all right,

0:55:13.760 --> 0:55:17.880
<v Speaker 1>Jef Crumpleman over at Mariner Wealth Advisors, here in studio.

0:55:18.560 --> 0:55:23.040
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:55:23.239 --> 0:55:26.759
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0:55:26.800 --> 0:55:29.919
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0:55:30.160 --> 0:55:33.439
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0:55:33.600 --> 0:55:36.520
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