WEBVTT - Bloomberg 50 Celebrates 2022's Most Influential

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Tim Stanevik. We're here every day bringing you the latest

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<v Speaker 1>one twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud,

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<v Speaker 1>radio show at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg business Week magazine it's on the shelves right now.

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<v Speaker 1>As the kids used to say, the cover is the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg fifty, the people who defined a global business in

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<v Speaker 1>two and Mike are You're gonna be shocked to find

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<v Speaker 1>out that I am not on it. I did not

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<v Speaker 1>make the list exactly. But we've got the person responsible

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<v Speaker 1>for that, Brett Bagan. He's a senior editor of Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week, joining us via zoom from New York City.

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<v Speaker 1>So Brett the fifty folks who really defined global business

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<v Speaker 1>to talk to us about maybe some themes that emerged

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<v Speaker 1>from your list this year. Yeah, So I would say

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<v Speaker 1>that the biggest theme that emerged is the tentacles really

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<v Speaker 1>that the war in Ukraine had, So we have obviously

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<v Speaker 1>Vladimir z Lensky is on the list UM, but then

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<v Speaker 1>when you start to look into other UH industries, you

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<v Speaker 1>see people like in the finance world like Dolly Singh,

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<v Speaker 1>who was the architect of the sanctions regime against Putin.

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<v Speaker 1>He's on our list. And then even people like Todd

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<v Speaker 1>Bowley who want winds up investing in buying the Chelsea

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<v Speaker 1>Football Club after UM the Russian oligarch Romano Bromvich was

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<v Speaker 1>pressured to sell it. So that was one of the

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<v Speaker 1>sort of major themes UM. And then I would say

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<v Speaker 1>it was also sort of hard to avoid um what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on in crypto and the crypto winter. UM. So

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<v Speaker 1>we had some familiar names like uh uh Serena Williams

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<v Speaker 1>who's raising money UM including investing in in some crypto stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>people like Katie Hahn, and up until about a month ago,

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<v Speaker 1>UM we thought we were going to have someone with

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<v Speaker 1>the initials SPF on the list, but we wound up

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<v Speaker 1>we wound up putting his replacement John Rayan Insteady certainly

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<v Speaker 1>an influential character, but I guess not the type you

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<v Speaker 1>want this particular list. My favorite, though, Brett is Bad

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<v Speaker 1>Bunny for those who are what's going on to reggaeton man?

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<v Speaker 1>Okay there, what's he doing on there? Brett? Yeah? So UM,

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<v Speaker 1>Bad Bunny is kind of fascinating. You know, he sort

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<v Speaker 1>of emerges in the pandemic from He's really sort of

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<v Speaker 1>first recognized when he was a teen for his work

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<v Speaker 1>on SoundCloud UM and has been an incredibly prolific UM

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<v Speaker 1>musician in the last couple of years, and that really

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<v Speaker 1>culminated this year in him selling more are tickets to

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<v Speaker 1>concerts and having the number one album UM of the

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<v Speaker 1>year when he had competition from some huge names Harry Styles, Beyonce, Bts, etcetera.

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<v Speaker 1>So no one had a bigger tour this year and

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<v Speaker 1>no one had a bigger album this year. And Bad

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<v Speaker 1>Bunny and he really appears appeals to like a gen

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<v Speaker 1>Z crowd. He sort of challenges gender norms. He and

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<v Speaker 1>his music is great and he surprises for you this year.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean there are always surprises to me. UM. I

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<v Speaker 1>would you know, I would say that, Um, we look

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<v Speaker 1>at people like someone like Tom Oxley who makes the

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<v Speaker 1>list because when you try to explain what he does,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's not just surprising, it's sort of shocking. He's

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<v Speaker 1>a neuroscientist and entrepreneur who is looking into the world

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<v Speaker 1>of brain computer interfaces and has successfully implanted device essentially

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<v Speaker 1>allows people who are suffering from things like als to

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<v Speaker 1>communicate via their thoughts. You know, the world of science fiction,

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<v Speaker 1>we've heard about this for you know, years, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>always been something in novels, but he's actually making it

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<v Speaker 1>happen in in Australia. In this trial run, they were

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<v Speaker 1>able to get people to actually um send emails using

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<v Speaker 1>this technology and to order things online. So learning about

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<v Speaker 1>people like that is always one of the most fascinating

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<v Speaker 1>parts of businesses to get, you know, Brett. One name

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<v Speaker 1>that chumped out in my world of market coverage is

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<v Speaker 1>Ken Griffin, billionaire founder of Citadel. What what caught your

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<v Speaker 1>eye with him this year? Yeah? Ken Griffin is you know,

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<v Speaker 1>fascinating in normal times. But this, uh, this move to Miami,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it is not the first to do it,

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<v Speaker 1>but he is certainly the wealthiest, certainly the richest to

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<v Speaker 1>do it, and he's really signaling a move down there

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<v Speaker 1>and in an attempt to make Miami into I think

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<v Speaker 1>what we referred to as Wall Street South Um. He's

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<v Speaker 1>building a tower there that I believe he's estimated to

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<v Speaker 1>be at about a billion dollars. And there's also just

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<v Speaker 1>a you know, fascinating backstory here with him wanting to

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<v Speaker 1>leave um Illinois because of his battles with JB. Pritzker

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<v Speaker 1>there and to go down to Florida was generally perceived

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<v Speaker 1>as being more business friendly where the governor is Rond

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<v Speaker 1>de Santas and and Griffin is one of his biggest contributors.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's like a story within a story within a

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<v Speaker 1>story on that one. You know, I was glad to

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<v Speaker 1>see Nick Hayak on because I interviewed him this earlier

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<v Speaker 1>this week and doing research. He's the president's CEO of

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<v Speaker 1>the Swatch Group in Switzerland. I didn't know that the

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<v Speaker 1>Swatch Group was the biggest watch company in the world

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<v Speaker 1>and they have a huge market cap. Just a fascinating

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<v Speaker 1>story when I did the research. Interesting to find him

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<v Speaker 1>on your Bloomberg Business Week fifty. Yeah, Nick Hik is like,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's a very story. He's the kind of

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<v Speaker 1>person who you know, wouldn't have made it on last

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<v Speaker 1>year and probably won't get on next year. But the

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<v Speaker 1>Moon Swatch is this genius stroke that he had where um,

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<v Speaker 1>they've basically took Um a Swatch and which is one

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<v Speaker 1>of the lower end brands, right, and they combine that

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<v Speaker 1>with Omega, which is one of their hiring bread and

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<v Speaker 1>you had a watch that would normally cost about seven

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<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars and they swapped out basically the parts to

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<v Speaker 1>make it a two DFT watch UM, and it was

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<v Speaker 1>wildly popular. I actually looked for one even as recently

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<v Speaker 1>is about a week ago, and I walked into the boutique,

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<v Speaker 1>the Swatch boutique, and they said they almost knew exactly

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<v Speaker 1>why why were there, And they said, we don't have

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<v Speaker 1>any you know, like almost right off the bat. And

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<v Speaker 1>this is months and months and months after this this partnership,

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<v Speaker 1>So it's really really just a genius stroke. The Watchers

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<v Speaker 1>are super cool and you basically get to own this

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<v Speaker 1>iconic watch time piece, but you only have to spend

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred fifty dollars on it versus the seven thousand

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<v Speaker 1>that it would the original would cost. Another one someone

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<v Speaker 1>I did not know of Picky Cole. Uh, I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>sure if you're allowed to say the name of a restaurant.

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<v Speaker 1>I think this is this a family program, business business.

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<v Speaker 1>We put it in print, we did, and our complying,

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<v Speaker 1>our alert compliance flagged me every single um. Yeah. So

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<v Speaker 1>Pinky Cole was fascinating. She raised million dollars this year

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<v Speaker 1>with the help of Danny Meyer of shake Shack fame

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<v Speaker 1>and of course of Unit Square, etcetera. Um So, she

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<v Speaker 1>started a vegan burger chain called Slutty Vegan uh. And

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's basically fast food for vegans. She was

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<v Speaker 1>trying to change people's perception of vegan food from like

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<v Speaker 1>tofu bowls and grain bowls, and she liked junk food

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<v Speaker 1>and wanted to be able to eat junk foods. So

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<v Speaker 1>she needed Slutty Vegan basically so that we would talk

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<v Speaker 1>about it, joke about it, and the burger. The burgers

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<v Speaker 1>all have fun names like Hollywood Hooker, Manage One night Stand.

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<v Speaker 1>It's it's great, that's fun. All right, that's good. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a great uh collection and maybe of different people on there.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a great read. Uh. So I suggest people run

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<v Speaker 1>out to the you know you've got the you know

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<v Speaker 1>place and get magazines, right, you can do that still,

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<v Speaker 1>plus you can do it on that bloom Bloomberg dot

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<v Speaker 1>com exactly. All right, good stuff. Brent Bigan, Senior editor

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week, joining us v Assume from New York's City. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's a really good, good collection of diverse individuals.

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<v Speaker 1>I got the usual suspects, you know, kind of the

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<v Speaker 1>big players out there, but there's also some new ones.

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<v Speaker 1>Serena Williams. I saw I was on there too, which

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<v Speaker 1>is really cool. So cruise back in the back in

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<v Speaker 1>the book. Oh it is good news for him. Alright,

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<v Speaker 1>this is Bloomberg. These sees Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

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<v Speaker 1>Messerer and Tim Stinebeck on Bloomberg Radio. All right, elon Musk,

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<v Speaker 1>No surprise, I guess Michael still in the news. But

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<v Speaker 1>now he's saying, Okay, now I'm really done. I'm really

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<v Speaker 1>done selling stock and I mean it this time. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know we've heard that before. Let's bring in Sarah Fryar.

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<v Speaker 1>She's a big tech team leader for Bloomberg News. She's

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<v Speaker 1>also the author of No Filter, The Inside Story of Instagram.

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<v Speaker 1>She's uh joined us on zoom from San Francisco Sarah,

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<v Speaker 1>do we believe him this time? I know you were

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<v Speaker 1>in the Twitter spaces called yesterday, and I guess some

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<v Speaker 1>shareholders weren't too happy. What do you think, Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's it's difficult to say whether we believe him. Certainly,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's um, it's what he has promised. I think

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<v Speaker 1>shareholders were also really interested in what he said right afterwards,

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<v Speaker 1>which is that he will be spending more of his

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<v Speaker 1>time on Tesla going forward. They felt he was distracted

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<v Speaker 1>by the Twitter project. They said, you know, why didn't

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<v Speaker 1>you come back, uh to this company that is that

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<v Speaker 1>is a much bigger part of your life and net worth.

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<v Speaker 1>He said, don't worry, Tesla is way more complex than

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter ever will be. He said, Twitter has about ten

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<v Speaker 1>percent of the complexity of Tesla, So of course he

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<v Speaker 1>will need to be spending more of his attention on

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<v Speaker 1>that club any going forward, which which shareholders are happy

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<v Speaker 1>to hear. But then they confronted him with this this

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<v Speaker 1>problem they have with how he has brought so much

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<v Speaker 1>political you know, controversy into his his run of Twitter,

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<v Speaker 1>bringing back UM people who had been banned, and making

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<v Speaker 1>his own proclamations about politics and um causing you know

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people who loved his brand, including these investors,

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<v Speaker 1>to feel a little alienated and to feel a little

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<v Speaker 1>different writing around in their Tesla's and being owners of

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<v Speaker 1>Tesla stock. And what I thought was really interesting is

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<v Speaker 1>he responded to responded to those fears by saying, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not going to stop talking about politics just to

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<v Speaker 1>satisfy shareholders. Of course, not um. And I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>that they were very pleased to hear that. Not pleased,

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<v Speaker 1>but probably not surprised. Yea, I would guess if you

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<v Speaker 1>know anything about but sorry, I wonder if he got

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<v Speaker 1>into sort of any of the nitty gritty on Tesla

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<v Speaker 1>Tesla's business because obviously, you know, the stock has taking

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<v Speaker 1>a huge hit this year, but especially this week that

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<v Speaker 1>those news of the discount on some models seemed to

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<v Speaker 1>really knock a lot off the stockers down something like

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<v Speaker 1>eight or nine percent that day. Did he talk about

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<v Speaker 1>that at all or really any of the sort of

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<v Speaker 1>demand dynamics for for Tesla going forward. Well, he he

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<v Speaker 1>tied it to the economy. He tied it to the

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<v Speaker 1>interest rate environment, the the inflationary environment. I think that

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<v Speaker 1>you know what he was trying to get across to

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<v Speaker 1>these investors is look, you know, this is what's happening

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<v Speaker 1>in the industry at large, and uh, we're just kind

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<v Speaker 1>of rolling with with the trend here. And I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know that that you know, when you look at Tesla

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<v Speaker 1>compared to the rest of the market, it is being

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<v Speaker 1>hit a little harder. Um. So, I don't know if

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<v Speaker 1>that was a satisfying answer for his investors. Sarah, you

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<v Speaker 1>know you're out there in Francisco. You know all of

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<v Speaker 1>these companies, you know, a lot of the Silicon Valley

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<v Speaker 1>investors there on Sandhill Road too. Is there a sense

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<v Speaker 1>that Twitter there's even a place for Twitter as a business?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you've got Amazon now on the advertising business obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>Facebook and Instagram, Google. Where does Twitter fit in? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>can it be fixed? Well? Twitter isn't really replicated by

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<v Speaker 1>any of those other businesses because it is a very

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<v Speaker 1>real time product. People go to Twitter to figure out

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening now. And and I think that if you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to instagrams are going to Facebook, you're going to TikTok.

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<v Speaker 1>It's more about entertainment around, you know, spending the few

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<v Speaker 1>minutes you have while you're waiting for an uber. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think that the place Twitter has in our our

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<v Speaker 1>conversation and that's what Musk was drawn to, this idea

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<v Speaker 1>that you would control this extremely powerful communication platform where

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<v Speaker 1>you see politicians, celebrities, UM, athletes, actors, journalists, um sharing

0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:05.840
<v Speaker 1>what's happening to them in real time and what they're thinking.

0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:10.559
<v Speaker 1>That said, Twitter as a business has always been rather

0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:15.240
<v Speaker 1>niche um in one part because advertisers don't really feel

0:13:15.280 --> 0:13:18.960
<v Speaker 1>the need to be tied to, you know, a place

0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 1>of of controversy or a place where where anything can

0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:26.480
<v Speaker 1>happen related to the news. It's much safer if you're

0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:30.560
<v Speaker 1>an advertiser to play on UM, a platform that is

0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:34.080
<v Speaker 1>more about about making people feel good and more about entertainment.

0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:36.080
<v Speaker 1>So it's always been a little bit of a struggle

0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:38.760
<v Speaker 1>for them to grow. And of course not everyone in

0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:40.960
<v Speaker 1>the public needs to know what's happening right at the

0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:44.240
<v Speaker 1>moment it's happening UM as journalists were rather addicted to

0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:46.880
<v Speaker 1>that and part of the part of the engine of that.

0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:50.360
<v Speaker 1>But you know, regular people don't need to be glued

0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:52.800
<v Speaker 1>to Twitter all day. Yeah sor I wonder if it's

0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.600
<v Speaker 1>possible to get a sort of vibe check on what

0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:59.040
<v Speaker 1>these shareholders were like during this spaces h Q and

0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:01.360
<v Speaker 1>A yesterday. You know, did they seem angry? Do they

0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:04.080
<v Speaker 1>seem like they're itching to hit that sell button or

0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:06.079
<v Speaker 1>is it more a matter of come on, Ellen, we

0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:07.960
<v Speaker 1>were on board, but we need you to do this,

0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:11.040
<v Speaker 1>that and the other thing very much, the latter. I mean,

0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:13.800
<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of things that must would say,

0:14:13.840 --> 0:14:16.800
<v Speaker 1>the shareholders would say, oh yeah, that makes a lot

0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:19.280
<v Speaker 1>of sense. I get it. I just want to you know,

0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:22.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, are you punching down when you talk about

0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:26.440
<v Speaker 1>trends rights? Are you punching down when you when you

0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:31.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, do this your political commentary that you do? Um,

0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:35.600
<v Speaker 1>how how can we tell our our daughters or our

0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:40.440
<v Speaker 1>sons that we admire you as as you you know,

0:14:40.680 --> 0:14:44.240
<v Speaker 1>really change your your public perstona and taken on so

0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:48.320
<v Speaker 1>much um controversy with this Twitter bid and And I

0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:51.000
<v Speaker 1>think that that's something that he didn't really answer to

0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:54.680
<v Speaker 1>their satisfaction. I think they were very much just trying

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:59.280
<v Speaker 1>to to communicate to him, like, man, we're on your side,

0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:01.640
<v Speaker 1>Like you really to see this turnaround. It's in all

0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:05.040
<v Speaker 1>of our financial interests um and And he was like, Hey,

0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:07.440
<v Speaker 1>like this is this is who I am and and

0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:12.360
<v Speaker 1>I'm I have great things. Yeah, so, Sarah, one of

0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:14.480
<v Speaker 1>the next things I guess we'll see in terms of

0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:18.200
<v Speaker 1>Twitter as a businesses CEO. Are they going to hire

0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:22.600
<v Speaker 1>a CEO? Now? I can't imagine being taking that position

0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:26.360
<v Speaker 1>given that Elon Elon Musk be He's still gonna be

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:29.360
<v Speaker 1>involved in the company. Any rumblings out there in the

0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:33.800
<v Speaker 1>valley about who might get the job want the job, well,

0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:36.640
<v Speaker 1>Must for his part, says that anybody who wants it

0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:40.480
<v Speaker 1>is probably not qualified. So you know, maybe you have

0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:43.280
<v Speaker 1>to not want it and have Must come call on

0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:46.200
<v Speaker 1>you and say will you step up to the plate.

0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:49.400
<v Speaker 1>But listen, it's gonna be really complicated position because not

0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:54.320
<v Speaker 1>only do you have to um run this company where

0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.280
<v Speaker 1>Musk is still financially in control. He said that he

0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:01.480
<v Speaker 1>wants to remain in charge of in engineering and software

0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:03.880
<v Speaker 1>and servers, so he's still going to be a larger

0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:06.960
<v Speaker 1>than like presence in the office. If if not, you know,

0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:11.280
<v Speaker 1>making a lot of the decisions still, and you need

0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:14.680
<v Speaker 1>somebody who can can cater to that well at the

0:16:14.760 --> 0:16:18.720
<v Speaker 1>same time, putting the business in the direction where it

0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:23.120
<v Speaker 1>can't succeed and Musk has said that it's been on

0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:25.440
<v Speaker 1>the path to bankruptcy. It's may I don't know if

0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:29.040
<v Speaker 1>that's hyperbolic or not, but certainly Twitter has taken on

0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:33.280
<v Speaker 1>a lot of debt that must borrowed in order to

0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:37.400
<v Speaker 1>finance this transaction. And so you know, he explained that

0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:40.600
<v Speaker 1>they were, prior to his cuts, they'd be on track

0:16:40.720 --> 0:16:44.440
<v Speaker 1>to to spend way more than they make. Um. Alright,

0:16:44.480 --> 0:16:46.440
<v Speaker 1>s great stuff. I don't know, We're gonna I know

0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:48.680
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna continue talking to you over the coming days

0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:51.560
<v Speaker 1>and months and on this issue because it just seems

0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:53.480
<v Speaker 1>to be the story that keeps on giving. Sarah Fryar

0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:56.320
<v Speaker 1>she's a big tech team leader Bloomberg News. She's also

0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:59.000
<v Speaker 1>the author of No Filter, the inside story of Instagram.

0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:02.640
<v Speaker 1>She joins us on Zoom from San Francisco, talking lord

0:17:02.640 --> 0:17:08.000
<v Speaker 1>elon Musk and a little testo, wellmore coming up. You're

0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:11.400
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Tim

0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:15.120
<v Speaker 1>Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. All Right, let's be honest here,

0:17:16.280 --> 0:17:21.040
<v Speaker 1>stocks disaster bonds even more of a disaster like epic

0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:24.040
<v Speaker 1>proportions disaster. Right, That's what the fixing come people tell me.

0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:27.399
<v Speaker 1>They've they've never seen it ever. Don't even get started

0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:29.840
<v Speaker 1>on crypto. Then, don't even get started on crypto. Let's

0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:33.080
<v Speaker 1>talk about another kind of hot item with the kids.

0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:35.680
<v Speaker 1>E t F S E t This is a surprising

0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:38.919
<v Speaker 1>turn of events for E TFS, and I think Emily

0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:40.320
<v Speaker 1>is going to explain it to us. All all right,

0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:43.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm like geo. She's cross asset reporter for Bloomberg News,

0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:45.439
<v Speaker 1>joining us here on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. It's

0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:48.560
<v Speaker 1>cross asset reporter, just another way to say et F

0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 1>reporter because you Hadi Greifeld. She's also a cross s reporter,

0:17:53.560 --> 0:17:55.240
<v Speaker 1>but she talks a lot about E t F S.

0:17:55.440 --> 0:17:59.200
<v Speaker 1>Cross asset is everything, every little thing, but E t

0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:01.680
<v Speaker 1>F S does fall under our coverage and we love them.

0:18:01.800 --> 0:18:07.119
<v Speaker 1>So how highs lows just give us a thirty foot picture. Okay,

0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:10.680
<v Speaker 1>so thirty thousand foot picture. We obviously have had a

0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:13.639
<v Speaker 1>bear market in stocks, but not every E t F

0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:16.879
<v Speaker 1>has done poorly. The ones that you would imagine that

0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:20.680
<v Speaker 1>have done well in the equity side, the energy linked stocks,

0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:23.520
<v Speaker 1>the crypto linked ones have done poorly. But then when

0:18:23.520 --> 0:18:25.879
<v Speaker 1>you look at the more are alternative space, the commodity

0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:28.480
<v Speaker 1>funds have done really well, and then some hedge fund

0:18:28.680 --> 0:18:33.040
<v Speaker 1>tracking hedge fund style et F. So the hedge fund

0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:37.000
<v Speaker 1>hedge fund strategies one is a managed futures one. So

0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:40.639
<v Speaker 1>that's a specific trend falling strategy. I know, Mike, you

0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:43.879
<v Speaker 1>had Andrew Beer on your What Goes Up podcasts a

0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:50.080
<v Speaker 1>few months ago, But that fund has done incredibly well

0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:53.080
<v Speaker 1>this year. It's up about year to date. It's started

0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:56.920
<v Speaker 1>two with about sixty million in assets and it crossed

0:18:57.000 --> 0:19:00.280
<v Speaker 1>over one billion and just months. A lot of trust

0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:04.440
<v Speaker 1>there in terms of flows into those kind of alternative strategies.

0:19:04.640 --> 0:19:07.000
<v Speaker 1>What really shocked me though, is, you know, Paul and

0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:09.679
<v Speaker 1>I were talking about how the I p O market

0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:13.560
<v Speaker 1>was basically dead for good reason. Who wants to try

0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:16.520
<v Speaker 1>to float in IPO in this market? But how many

0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:18.760
<v Speaker 1>new ETFs. My eyes popped out of my head when

0:19:18.760 --> 0:19:21.159
<v Speaker 1>I saw this. Yeah, so right now that tally is

0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:26.159
<v Speaker 1>four hundred twenty two new e t and that's a record.

0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:28.720
<v Speaker 1>We had a record last year. Emily has written about

0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:32.080
<v Speaker 1>every one of them. Yes, every PR person has pitched

0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:34.159
<v Speaker 1>me on the brand new ETF. But we had a

0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:36.560
<v Speaker 1>record last year, and then this is another year which

0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:39.120
<v Speaker 1>is surprising because you wouldn't think that any common theme

0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:42.000
<v Speaker 1>among them. You know, I'm sure that they're not all

0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:45.600
<v Speaker 1>exactly the same strategy, but any themes pop out. Well.

0:19:45.640 --> 0:19:49.880
<v Speaker 1>There were a lot of interest rate hedging strategies. Everyone

0:19:49.920 --> 0:19:52.159
<v Speaker 1>was trying to kind of figure out, like how do

0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:55.399
<v Speaker 1>we position for the bear market in bonds? So some

0:19:55.480 --> 0:19:57.879
<v Speaker 1>of them were more successful than other. Some of the

0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:01.320
<v Speaker 1>funds were betting on the yield curve um steepening, and

0:20:01.359 --> 0:20:04.520
<v Speaker 1>then some we're betting more on inflation depending on the

0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:06.720
<v Speaker 1>kind of derivatives that they had in the fund. So

0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:08.119
<v Speaker 1>it was a mixed bag for those. And then there

0:20:08.160 --> 0:20:10.200
<v Speaker 1>were still a lot of E s G funds coming out,

0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:12.520
<v Speaker 1>which was surprising given the year that E s G

0:20:12.640 --> 0:20:15.399
<v Speaker 1>has had. But there is some appetite, at least on

0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:18.000
<v Speaker 1>the issuer side to launch a fund with that kind

0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:19.360
<v Speaker 1>of label in it. And I guess some of these

0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:21.720
<v Speaker 1>are years in the making, so you know, you get

0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:24.800
<v Speaker 1>them across the finish line when it's the right time

0:20:24.880 --> 0:20:28.600
<v Speaker 1>or not. Another thing that really boggles my mind this

0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:33.320
<v Speaker 1>year is cathy Woods Innovation Arc Innovation Fund had a

0:20:33.400 --> 0:20:36.800
<v Speaker 1>very awful year. You know, those high growth tech stocks, uh,

0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:39.400
<v Speaker 1>not so high on the profits. Yet Um just got

0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:42.040
<v Speaker 1>collaborated this year. She actually had influence this year though

0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:45.840
<v Speaker 1>she did yeah over one billion. Yeah. Well, I wonder

0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:49.360
<v Speaker 1>what is that play out across that whole sort of growth,

0:20:50.080 --> 0:20:53.880
<v Speaker 1>this tech innovation strategy or is it just her her

0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:56.200
<v Speaker 1>special mojo? Do you think? I don't have the details

0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.640
<v Speaker 1>of every single tech et F, but I do know

0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:03.840
<v Speaker 1>that there are fans that just they love arc they

0:21:03.880 --> 0:21:05.760
<v Speaker 1>want to hold on. I was actually talking about it

0:21:05.800 --> 0:21:07.639
<v Speaker 1>with the source this morning who was kind enough to

0:21:07.640 --> 0:21:10.720
<v Speaker 1>take my call on Christmas eve eve Um, who was

0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:13.280
<v Speaker 1>saying that there are these people that she has a

0:21:13.280 --> 0:21:16.520
<v Speaker 1>long term thesis. They feel like they're making the right

0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:19.440
<v Speaker 1>call by investing for the longer terms. So even though

0:21:19.440 --> 0:21:23.800
<v Speaker 1>the fund has fallen there, they're still interested in this innovation.

0:21:24.040 --> 0:21:28.240
<v Speaker 1>What is an active e t F fund? So an

0:21:28.280 --> 0:21:31.800
<v Speaker 1>active e t F Normally when retail investors think of ETFs,

0:21:31.920 --> 0:21:34.879
<v Speaker 1>they usually think of funds at track indexes, index funds

0:21:34.880 --> 0:21:37.840
<v Speaker 1>passive strategy. But we're seeing the growth of e t

0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:42.760
<v Speaker 1>fs that have active managers that actively buy and sell

0:21:42.880 --> 0:21:46.280
<v Speaker 1>and change the waitings of different stocks. And so what

0:21:46.440 --> 0:21:49.520
<v Speaker 1>we've really seen this year in two is these large

0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:54.600
<v Speaker 1>legacy asset managers companies that are known for their actively

0:21:54.640 --> 0:21:58.080
<v Speaker 1>managed mutual funds. Launching et F s. Capital Group was

0:21:58.160 --> 0:22:01.760
<v Speaker 1>the big cahuna this making with the still the low

0:22:01.880 --> 0:22:05.159
<v Speaker 1>cost structure that makes ETFs the cool thing most of

0:22:05.200 --> 0:22:08.439
<v Speaker 1>the time. The active e t fs are lower fee

0:22:08.520 --> 0:22:10.960
<v Speaker 1>than the mutual I have to say the manager, which

0:22:11.040 --> 0:22:13.840
<v Speaker 1>was the whole part of the lower fees was there's

0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:15.440
<v Speaker 1>nobody really I had to pay and have to pay

0:22:15.440 --> 0:22:18.959
<v Speaker 1>some start portfolio. Yeah, the fee, it's it's lower than

0:22:19.000 --> 0:22:21.760
<v Speaker 1>the mutual fund, but it's it's more expensive than a

0:22:21.840 --> 0:22:24.440
<v Speaker 1>passive E t F across the for the most part,

0:22:25.119 --> 0:22:28.800
<v Speaker 1>Emily smart to call sources on two days before Christmas.

0:22:29.119 --> 0:22:30.639
<v Speaker 1>You might get them with a few egg nogs and

0:22:31.119 --> 0:22:32.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, I'll tell you a little bit more than

0:22:32.920 --> 0:22:35.880
<v Speaker 1>they had planned. But but Emily, you know, there's so

0:22:35.920 --> 0:22:39.560
<v Speaker 1>many players in the E t F space now, um

0:22:39.720 --> 0:22:41.800
<v Speaker 1>is anyone making ground on the on the big two?

0:22:41.880 --> 0:22:45.879
<v Speaker 1>You know, black Rock Vanguard obviously have dominated the space

0:22:46.040 --> 0:22:48.760
<v Speaker 1>for years, but they're you know, getting attacked from all

0:22:48.800 --> 0:22:52.479
<v Speaker 1>sides with different strategies and different new products. Is are

0:22:52.520 --> 0:22:55.200
<v Speaker 1>they making any headways all these upstart competitors? Yeah, I

0:22:55.240 --> 0:23:00.359
<v Speaker 1>mean the big asset managers are starting to UM reached

0:23:00.400 --> 0:23:03.160
<v Speaker 1>the top reach Vanguard and black Rock. We don't think

0:23:03.200 --> 0:23:06.919
<v Speaker 1>that the assets are going to replace or get bigger

0:23:06.920 --> 0:23:09.480
<v Speaker 1>than Van Goard or black Rock. But three names that

0:23:09.520 --> 0:23:13.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm watching Dimensional JP Morgan, and Capital Group UM. They

0:23:13.359 --> 0:23:15.480
<v Speaker 1>had some of the most successful et F launches in

0:23:16.240 --> 0:23:19.879
<v Speaker 1>two This is from Bloomberg Intelligence. They've taken in sixty

0:23:20.080 --> 0:23:23.520
<v Speaker 1>percent of the assets gathered by all of the new

0:23:23.560 --> 0:23:26.240
<v Speaker 1>et F that have launches, sixty eight percent of the

0:23:26.240 --> 0:23:29.600
<v Speaker 1>assets went to those three companies. So they have been

0:23:29.640 --> 0:23:32.560
<v Speaker 1>able and they're launching this active strategy, which some strategists

0:23:32.560 --> 0:23:36.040
<v Speaker 1>were doubtful that active would take a place in the

0:23:36.040 --> 0:23:37.640
<v Speaker 1>e t F world. I guess in some way, maybe

0:23:37.640 --> 0:23:41.199
<v Speaker 1>they're cannibalizing a little their mutuals. We are seeing a

0:23:41.240 --> 0:23:45.480
<v Speaker 1>lot of companies fidelity to converting their mutual want e

0:23:45.560 --> 0:23:49.240
<v Speaker 1>t s. That's a thing, yes, yes, so it started

0:23:49.400 --> 0:23:53.720
<v Speaker 1>in one and we're seeing now there's a tool. They're

0:23:54.400 --> 0:24:01.280
<v Speaker 1>in the town. There's a new tool. Bomberg Intelligence keeps

0:24:01.280 --> 0:24:03.000
<v Speaker 1>a tally of how many I think it's a little

0:24:03.040 --> 0:24:05.800
<v Speaker 1>bit over thirty five now mutual funds to have UM

0:24:05.840 --> 0:24:07.720
<v Speaker 1>flipped to e T f s. But it is a

0:24:07.760 --> 0:24:11.000
<v Speaker 1>little bit of saving yourself, not wanting the competitor to

0:24:11.080 --> 0:24:13.399
<v Speaker 1>launch an ETF, so you're gonna do it yourself. I mean,

0:24:13.480 --> 0:24:16.080
<v Speaker 1>is there any future I don't, Michael, you might know

0:24:16.160 --> 0:24:19.520
<v Speaker 1>to it, like for the traditional mutual fund structures or

0:24:19.600 --> 0:24:21.560
<v Speaker 1>future there that we all grew up with it or

0:24:22.480 --> 0:24:26.000
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. It seems like they're gonna die by

0:24:26.040 --> 0:24:28.760
<v Speaker 1>a million cuts with all these conversions to two E

0:24:28.880 --> 0:24:32.760
<v Speaker 1>t f s and ETFs that replicate the same strategies.

0:24:32.920 --> 0:24:34.920
<v Speaker 1>Because I grew up as an and I have a

0:24:34.920 --> 0:24:37.720
<v Speaker 1>lot of mutual fund yes manager friends who are gonna

0:24:37.720 --> 0:24:40.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna hear about something they're not listening to that.

0:24:40.160 --> 0:24:42.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I started my career as an analyst and

0:24:42.560 --> 0:24:45.440
<v Speaker 1>you had to go to Boston three or four times

0:24:45.440 --> 0:24:47.480
<v Speaker 1>a year, and the great thing about is you could

0:24:47.480 --> 0:24:50.719
<v Speaker 1>just take a within a ten minute walk radius. Fidelity

0:24:50.840 --> 0:24:54.359
<v Speaker 1>part them well, I mean the big bunny managers in

0:24:54.400 --> 0:24:57.399
<v Speaker 1>the world and boom, they were right there. But I'm

0:24:57.440 --> 0:24:59.560
<v Speaker 1>wondering about that business now. Yeah. I mean a lot

0:24:59.600 --> 0:25:01.960
<v Speaker 1>of those aims that you mentioned, I saw them at

0:25:02.000 --> 0:25:05.480
<v Speaker 1>the E t F conferences that I attended this year.

0:25:05.880 --> 0:25:09.240
<v Speaker 1>The one thing that I think is keeping mutual funds

0:25:09.240 --> 0:25:12.200
<v Speaker 1>still in business is that in a lot of retirement accounts,

0:25:12.240 --> 0:25:14.879
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't really make sense to have the e t F,

0:25:15.040 --> 0:25:16.960
<v Speaker 1>the tax advantages of the et F, it's kind of

0:25:16.960 --> 0:25:20.919
<v Speaker 1>canceled out by the retirement accounts. So until that changes,

0:25:21.000 --> 0:25:24.000
<v Speaker 1>we probably won't see a very large flip and a

0:25:24.000 --> 0:25:27.760
<v Speaker 1>complete death of mutual funds. They'll stick around. The conference

0:25:27.800 --> 0:25:30.840
<v Speaker 1>schedule tracks me up. ETFs and crypto are keeping the

0:25:30.840 --> 0:25:33.160
<v Speaker 1>conference industry alive, I think, and I don't see any

0:25:33.200 --> 0:25:40.520
<v Speaker 1>like et F conferences in Milwaukee, you know, bringing your sunscreen,

0:25:40.640 --> 0:25:43.919
<v Speaker 1>that that sort of thing. Alright, so, uh, Emily, good stuff.

0:25:43.920 --> 0:25:46.199
<v Speaker 1>We're gonna let you cross as. I'm just gonna call

0:25:46.240 --> 0:25:50.040
<v Speaker 1>them et F slash crypto reporters. It's like the fancy

0:25:50.160 --> 0:25:54.040
<v Speaker 1>pooh me. Have you seen that, you know? Et F reporter? Okay,

0:25:54.200 --> 0:25:57.720
<v Speaker 1>put a tuxedo on pool and their cross exactly. I

0:25:57.720 --> 0:26:00.960
<v Speaker 1>am a cross as reporter Blomberg News. Joining us here

0:26:00.960 --> 0:26:04.520
<v Speaker 1>on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. These sees Bloomberg Business

0:26:04.560 --> 0:26:09.080
<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Messerer and Tim Stinavic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:09.400 --> 0:26:11.320
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk a little crypto, but maybe from a little

0:26:11.320 --> 0:26:14.480
<v Speaker 1>bit different angle. Bruce Roger's chairman, CEO and president of

0:26:14.800 --> 0:26:18.040
<v Speaker 1>l M Funding It's tickers l m f A joins

0:26:18.119 --> 0:26:21.640
<v Speaker 1>us via zoom from Tampa, Florida, where I think even

0:26:21.680 --> 0:26:25.000
<v Speaker 1>the cold weather is going to reach. Uh Tampa, Bruce,

0:26:25.040 --> 0:26:27.040
<v Speaker 1>Are you guys getting ready for a little bit chillier

0:26:27.040 --> 0:26:31.080
<v Speaker 1>than usual Christmas? Down to Tampa? Sure it was seventy

0:26:31.160 --> 0:26:32.840
<v Speaker 1>and sunny when I came in, so I wore my

0:26:32.920 --> 0:26:36.879
<v Speaker 1>leather jacket. Good for you, Well, somehow try to, you know,

0:26:36.960 --> 0:26:39.919
<v Speaker 1>bear through it. Uh, Bruce, talk to us about LM funding.

0:26:39.960 --> 0:26:41.520
<v Speaker 1>What what do you guys do? Where do you how

0:26:41.560 --> 0:26:45.720
<v Speaker 1>do you participate in the crypto space? Well, we made

0:26:45.760 --> 0:26:49.359
<v Speaker 1>a pivot into bitcoin a year ago um as an

0:26:49.359 --> 0:26:51.960
<v Speaker 1>outpouring of an effort to do a spack. So we

0:26:52.080 --> 0:26:54.080
<v Speaker 1>founded as back and looked at a bunch of different

0:26:54.119 --> 0:26:58.040
<v Speaker 1>industries to pivot our l m f A ticker and

0:26:58.119 --> 0:27:01.479
<v Speaker 1>landed on bitcoin mining. And the reason we landed on

0:27:01.560 --> 0:27:05.399
<v Speaker 1>that it seems like it's bearing its way out. We

0:27:05.480 --> 0:27:07.560
<v Speaker 1>looked a lot of exchanges and a lot of the

0:27:07.560 --> 0:27:10.399
<v Speaker 1>different defied plays, and I just never as a lawyer,

0:27:10.440 --> 0:27:13.760
<v Speaker 1>could come to grips with the regulations on that, so

0:27:14.200 --> 0:27:16.680
<v Speaker 1>we started buying bitcoin and put it on our balance sheet,

0:27:16.720 --> 0:27:19.399
<v Speaker 1>kind of the micro strategies piece. And then I realized

0:27:19.440 --> 0:27:21.399
<v Speaker 1>the cheapest way to buy a bitcoin if you believe

0:27:21.440 --> 0:27:24.320
<v Speaker 1>in this stuff is the mining, and so we bought

0:27:24.359 --> 0:27:26.439
<v Speaker 1>a bunch of mining machines at the peak of the market.

0:27:26.560 --> 0:27:29.920
<v Speaker 1>Fortunately with a variable price contract so we didn't get

0:27:30.000 --> 0:27:32.000
<v Speaker 1>burned too badly. And now we're up in mining at

0:27:32.000 --> 0:27:35.120
<v Speaker 1>a in the bigcoin winner at the hardest of times.

0:27:35.280 --> 0:27:39.119
<v Speaker 1>But um, I still believe in bitcoin and what it

0:27:39.160 --> 0:27:42.000
<v Speaker 1>can do, and it solves the trust problem between humans,

0:27:42.000 --> 0:27:44.080
<v Speaker 1>and it does so by having lots and lots of

0:27:44.119 --> 0:27:47.840
<v Speaker 1>humans participate in every transaction. So that's the story of

0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:50.560
<v Speaker 1>why bitcoin for us. Yeah, first talk to us a

0:27:50.560 --> 0:27:54.040
<v Speaker 1>little bit about the climbing climate for miners these days.

0:27:54.040 --> 0:27:56.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, we did have Core Scientific, one of the

0:27:56.440 --> 0:28:01.480
<v Speaker 1>largest miners of bitcoin, file for bankruptcy protection earlier in

0:28:01.520 --> 0:28:06.440
<v Speaker 1>the month. What are the challenges facing bitcoin miners? Obviously

0:28:06.520 --> 0:28:11.320
<v Speaker 1>the dropping prices is one leverage. What's going on in

0:28:11.359 --> 0:28:13.679
<v Speaker 1>the space in general? Are we gonna see more more

0:28:13.720 --> 0:28:16.080
<v Speaker 1>sort of bankruptcies or failures like like we saw with

0:28:16.160 --> 0:28:21.240
<v Speaker 1>Course Scientific. I think that anybody that levered up a

0:28:21.320 --> 0:28:24.040
<v Speaker 1>year ago and the asset that we're all betting on

0:28:24.160 --> 0:28:27.920
<v Speaker 1>to make us money is down. That leverage is gonna

0:28:27.960 --> 0:28:30.560
<v Speaker 1>be very hard to pay back. So I feel very

0:28:30.600 --> 0:28:33.160
<v Speaker 1>fortunate and that we did not lever up and we're

0:28:33.320 --> 0:28:38.160
<v Speaker 1>entirely cash based company. Um. The overall it's as bad

0:28:38.200 --> 0:28:40.360
<v Speaker 1>as it could be, but it can always get worse,

0:28:40.560 --> 0:28:44.520
<v Speaker 1>you know. UM, gas prices are up, so Winner's cold

0:28:44.960 --> 0:28:48.240
<v Speaker 1>electricity is going to be expensive. Um. We made the

0:28:48.480 --> 0:28:52.040
<v Speaker 1>We've we've tried three different approaches to uh to getting

0:28:52.040 --> 0:28:55.640
<v Speaker 1>machines hosted. We went with the startup entrepreneurial guy and

0:28:55.720 --> 0:28:58.320
<v Speaker 1>he went bust, and then we said, nope, we're gonna

0:28:58.360 --> 0:29:00.520
<v Speaker 1>go big balance sheets for our hosts. We went to

0:29:00.600 --> 0:29:03.800
<v Speaker 1>Compute North and they went bust and we're still kind

0:29:03.800 --> 0:29:06.040
<v Speaker 1>of working a way out of that. And we moved

0:29:06.040 --> 0:29:08.720
<v Speaker 1>a bunch of our Core machines too, I'm sorry, bunch

0:29:08.720 --> 0:29:13.040
<v Speaker 1>of our Compute North machines to Core and unfortunately there

0:29:13.040 --> 0:29:15.720
<v Speaker 1>that seems to be working out well. I've reviewed their

0:29:15.920 --> 0:29:19.200
<v Speaker 1>plan and uh, it looks like that we're gonna be

0:29:19.200 --> 0:29:21.840
<v Speaker 1>able to stay energized based on what they've informed us

0:29:21.880 --> 0:29:25.240
<v Speaker 1>so far. Uh, soaper it's just looking at your background

0:29:25.320 --> 0:29:27.640
<v Speaker 1>originally from Bowling Green, Kentucky, and just so you know,

0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:30.600
<v Speaker 1>I'm a huge fan of Bowling Green, Kentucky, have spent

0:29:30.640 --> 0:29:32.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot of time there. And I also note that

0:29:32.760 --> 0:29:35.280
<v Speaker 1>you're in the United States Navy for four years and

0:29:35.360 --> 0:29:38.320
<v Speaker 1>the surface warfare officers, So thank you for your service.

0:29:38.960 --> 0:29:42.920
<v Speaker 1>My question to you here is, I mean where I

0:29:42.960 --> 0:29:46.760
<v Speaker 1>mean the bitcoin mining. I mean that seems like the

0:29:46.840 --> 0:29:48.680
<v Speaker 1>nuts and bolts of the business, and I get that,

0:29:49.040 --> 0:29:50.760
<v Speaker 1>and that's where you guys are focused in. But when

0:29:50.760 --> 0:29:52.960
<v Speaker 1>you see a big exchange like ft X blow up

0:29:53.000 --> 0:29:55.720
<v Speaker 1>and you know, Sam Bankman, find what does that mean

0:29:56.040 --> 0:30:00.120
<v Speaker 1>to you as an industry participant? How how cripple thing

0:30:00.200 --> 0:30:01.880
<v Speaker 1>is that? If it is at all or in terms

0:30:01.880 --> 0:30:08.640
<v Speaker 1>of credibility, there's nothing good about it, um other than

0:30:09.120 --> 0:30:13.320
<v Speaker 1>I guess it gets this out of the way. UM.

0:30:13.480 --> 0:30:17.440
<v Speaker 1>I thought as a bitcoin miner, as when I did

0:30:17.480 --> 0:30:19.680
<v Speaker 1>not buy into the DeFi thing, when we were looking

0:30:19.840 --> 0:30:22.160
<v Speaker 1>at different companies with our SPACs, I just I could

0:30:22.200 --> 0:30:26.240
<v Speaker 1>not figure out what securities laws they were trying to

0:30:26.280 --> 0:30:30.840
<v Speaker 1>comply with and find out they weren't. UM. So there's

0:30:30.880 --> 0:30:33.480
<v Speaker 1>some scatting forward there and watching it it failed. But

0:30:33.480 --> 0:30:37.720
<v Speaker 1>what I didn't realize is that our hosting companies were

0:30:37.760 --> 0:30:42.160
<v Speaker 1>intertwined with the DeFi situation, and that it's it's sucks

0:30:42.160 --> 0:30:44.520
<v Speaker 1>some liquidity out of the coin and it sucks some

0:30:44.760 --> 0:30:48.800
<v Speaker 1>Uh well, let's put some some miners into a bad

0:30:48.840 --> 0:30:54.480
<v Speaker 1>place because of the financing. Uh it the whole DeFi thing.

0:30:54.520 --> 0:30:57.720
<v Speaker 1>To me, I heard this it was either late night

0:30:57.800 --> 0:31:00.040
<v Speaker 1>TV or maybe on Bloomberg when somebody compared it to

0:31:00.120 --> 0:31:03.760
<v Speaker 1>the Right Brothers financing their company by selling frequent flyer miles.

0:31:05.880 --> 0:31:08.480
<v Speaker 1>And I loved it because I thought through the example,

0:31:08.520 --> 0:31:10.880
<v Speaker 1>and it is kind of what sambrankmun freed and the

0:31:10.880 --> 0:31:13.840
<v Speaker 1>magic box we're talking about. You know, they just had here.

0:31:13.840 --> 0:31:15.320
<v Speaker 1>We got an idea. We got this idea. It was

0:31:15.320 --> 0:31:17.040
<v Speaker 1>gonna be a wing and we're gonna run down a

0:31:17.200 --> 0:31:20.400
<v Speaker 1>dune into the wind and we're gonna fly. And so

0:31:20.440 --> 0:31:22.840
<v Speaker 1>what we think you should do is by tickets on

0:31:22.960 --> 0:31:26.200
<v Speaker 1>these planes that are gonna shuttle people over around the Earth.

0:31:26.720 --> 0:31:28.760
<v Speaker 1>And it would have worked out, well, it really wouldn't

0:31:28.800 --> 0:31:30.640
<v Speaker 1>work because the airline business turned out not to be

0:31:30.680 --> 0:31:34.120
<v Speaker 1>so good and so forth. But even if they had done,

0:31:34.120 --> 0:31:36.880
<v Speaker 1>it had taken the time delay in flying and the

0:31:36.960 --> 0:31:38.960
<v Speaker 1>first flight was a little bit, and people would have

0:31:38.960 --> 0:31:40.560
<v Speaker 1>got ansty so they would have had to invent the

0:31:40.600 --> 0:31:43.800
<v Speaker 1>stable coin too, and and we would have got through

0:31:43.840 --> 0:31:46.040
<v Speaker 1>that whole thing. If the right bones, the irony is

0:31:46.360 --> 0:31:49.720
<v Speaker 1>the right brothers could have financed their operations by selling

0:31:49.800 --> 0:31:55.000
<v Speaker 1>frequent flyer miles because it wasn't illegal back. Yeah, person,

0:31:55.040 --> 0:31:57.680
<v Speaker 1>it's good to hear that. Uh, you know, your company's

0:31:57.720 --> 0:32:00.080
<v Speaker 1>not levered up like some of these other miners, and

0:32:00.080 --> 0:32:03.000
<v Speaker 1>and maybe can weather this, uh, this turmoil in the

0:32:03.040 --> 0:32:05.640
<v Speaker 1>market a lot better than those that were. But I

0:32:05.720 --> 0:32:09.600
<v Speaker 1>wonder what if any risk there is to bitcoin as

0:32:09.840 --> 0:32:13.040
<v Speaker 1>more miners struggle, and you know, if they do start

0:32:13.480 --> 0:32:16.600
<v Speaker 1>failing on plugging the rigs. Um, is there a risk

0:32:16.720 --> 0:32:20.000
<v Speaker 1>to sort of I don't know the integrity of bitcoin

0:32:20.560 --> 0:32:24.880
<v Speaker 1>or the transaction times or anything. Um if if a

0:32:24.920 --> 0:32:27.360
<v Speaker 1>lot of miners fail, or is it just you know,

0:32:27.800 --> 0:32:30.640
<v Speaker 1>the last company standing like yourself, just get more of

0:32:30.680 --> 0:32:35.000
<v Speaker 1>the pie. Well, Bitcoin has lots of built in features,

0:32:35.040 --> 0:32:39.440
<v Speaker 1>but the degree of difficulty the more miners plugged in,

0:32:39.560 --> 0:32:42.760
<v Speaker 1>the harder it is. The mind So with if miners

0:32:42.800 --> 0:32:45.760
<v Speaker 1>fall offline, you know, take it to a logical extremes,

0:32:45.800 --> 0:32:48.600
<v Speaker 1>it becomes easier and easier so that the actual transaction

0:32:48.640 --> 0:32:51.600
<v Speaker 1>in the coin and the yield is calculated to be

0:32:51.680 --> 0:32:54.880
<v Speaker 1>about the same over periods of time. And that's why

0:32:54.920 --> 0:33:00.360
<v Speaker 1>we say the last coin will be mined in UM.

0:33:00.400 --> 0:33:03.960
<v Speaker 1>So you got you got some time there. Yeah. Yeah.

0:33:04.200 --> 0:33:05.920
<v Speaker 1>One of my board members is just in the office.

0:33:05.920 --> 0:33:07.760
<v Speaker 1>He said, I think we got till twenty forty. I

0:33:07.760 --> 0:33:10.400
<v Speaker 1>said that this none of the math works if that's true.

0:33:10.440 --> 0:33:14.600
<v Speaker 1>So you got that check that date. So first talk

0:33:14.600 --> 0:33:16.600
<v Speaker 1>to us about one of the other aspects of mining.

0:33:16.600 --> 0:33:19.880
<v Speaker 1>It's just that the power issue. What's your strategy there,

0:33:19.880 --> 0:33:26.360
<v Speaker 1>how do you kind of maximize that? So we were

0:33:26.440 --> 0:33:28.680
<v Speaker 1>driven by capital and so it to us it's the

0:33:28.680 --> 0:33:31.800
<v Speaker 1>cost of capital to get bitcoin, and I don't want

0:33:31.840 --> 0:33:35.560
<v Speaker 1>to buy infrastructure right now if I can avoid it, uh,

0:33:35.600 --> 0:33:38.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, thirty year infrastructure to mind bitcoin. I would

0:33:39.080 --> 0:33:41.880
<v Speaker 1>rather pay per kill a lot. So we do everything

0:33:41.920 --> 0:33:45.400
<v Speaker 1>through hosting companies like Core and Compute North that um

0:33:45.520 --> 0:33:49.240
<v Speaker 1>they up charge us on the cost of electricity and

0:33:49.120 --> 0:33:53.360
<v Speaker 1>the infrastructure. So that's been our approach to it. And

0:33:53.400 --> 0:33:57.360
<v Speaker 1>then with that we're kind of like outsourcing. The dealing

0:33:57.440 --> 0:34:00.480
<v Speaker 1>with the local politics of bitcoin mining is loud and

0:34:00.520 --> 0:34:03.240
<v Speaker 1>it throws off a lot of heat. So there are

0:34:03.480 --> 0:34:05.800
<v Speaker 1>neighbors that aren't gonna like that. So where are your

0:34:05.880 --> 0:34:08.799
<v Speaker 1>machines physically? I mean, are they just in an I

0:34:09.000 --> 0:34:12.279
<v Speaker 1>T office park kind of thing? Where where do you

0:34:12.320 --> 0:34:14.440
<v Speaker 1>house them? Or were they may maybe not just you yourselves,

0:34:14.480 --> 0:34:18.799
<v Speaker 1>but just the industry. So just relying on public information,

0:34:19.040 --> 0:34:22.160
<v Speaker 1>the we house a bunch of them at Core Scientific

0:34:22.400 --> 0:34:27.640
<v Speaker 1>and uh specifically at their Calvert City, Kentucky facility. Yeah.

0:34:27.760 --> 0:34:29.759
<v Speaker 1>I wanted the high Point Award there at age nine,

0:34:29.880 --> 0:34:35.040
<v Speaker 1>so I came back years later to spend some money. Um.

0:34:35.120 --> 0:34:39.879
<v Speaker 1>Uh so these are that facility, if I recall, used

0:34:39.920 --> 0:34:43.560
<v Speaker 1>to be a steel uh facility, so it had great

0:34:43.760 --> 0:34:46.680
<v Speaker 1>power access. There's a new facility out there in the

0:34:46.680 --> 0:34:50.120
<v Speaker 1>western part of the state of Kentucky. And uh so

0:34:50.360 --> 0:34:52.640
<v Speaker 1>that brings you to the energy piece, which is you know,

0:34:53.239 --> 0:34:55.880
<v Speaker 1>if you're on the grid, you're getting whatever energy is

0:34:55.880 --> 0:34:59.120
<v Speaker 1>in the grid, and that's where we are. All right,

0:34:59.200 --> 0:35:02.120
<v Speaker 1>that's good stuff. Uh you know, two thumbs up for

0:35:02.200 --> 0:35:04.360
<v Speaker 1>Kentucky again. I'm a big fan of bowling your Kentucky.

0:35:04.360 --> 0:35:06.880
<v Speaker 1>You didn't know that my big big bourbon guy over

0:35:06.920 --> 0:35:10.040
<v Speaker 1>there poem Yeah exactly. Bruce Rogers, Chairman CEO and president

0:35:10.120 --> 0:35:14.560
<v Speaker 1>of l M Funding, joining us on Zoom from Tampa, Florida,

0:35:14.719 --> 0:35:17.600
<v Speaker 1>and you know that whole mining aspect. It's just it's

0:35:17.640 --> 0:35:21.520
<v Speaker 1>just fascinating. You know, my understanding level is relatively and elemental,

0:35:21.600 --> 0:35:23.600
<v Speaker 1>but I mean just the concept that just you know,

0:35:23.640 --> 0:35:26.080
<v Speaker 1>cranking out code and just kind of running and running

0:35:26.080 --> 0:35:30.040
<v Speaker 1>and running it, and the power associated with running those machines,

0:35:30.040 --> 0:35:31.560
<v Speaker 1>and you know, it was it was interesting too to

0:35:31.560 --> 0:35:34.439
<v Speaker 1>hear Bruce. You know that that's sort of skeptical lawyer's mind.

0:35:34.840 --> 0:35:37.359
<v Speaker 1>Figure out this is the avenue uh at least likely

0:35:37.400 --> 0:35:39.359
<v Speaker 1>to get everyone in trouble. Which is which is? It's

0:35:39.400 --> 0:35:46.720
<v Speaker 1>good stuff? All right, good stuff? That was Bruce Rogers journal.

0:35:48.000 --> 0:35:55.680
<v Speaker 1>But you let me drive? Oh no, no, Nobles, I

0:35:55.760 --> 0:36:03.320
<v Speaker 1>want to drive. It's a good question. M Time this

0:36:04.520 --> 0:36:12.000
<v Speaker 1>to the clothes on Blueberg Radio. All right, Mike, it's

0:36:12.040 --> 0:36:16.719
<v Speaker 1>December eve eve for me. So in the rearview, as

0:36:16.760 --> 0:36:20.160
<v Speaker 1>the kids say, I mean, stocks down twenty plus percent,

0:36:20.200 --> 0:36:23.759
<v Speaker 1>I got bonds down double digits. Enough. I'm looking forward

0:36:23.760 --> 0:36:25.719
<v Speaker 1>to and I want to talk to somebody maybe he

0:36:25.760 --> 0:36:30.760
<v Speaker 1>can give me. It's not like you wanted to retire ever, Paul, No, no, exactly.

0:36:30.800 --> 0:36:33.759
<v Speaker 1>So I love this working thing. So as as Tom

0:36:33.800 --> 0:36:36.120
<v Speaker 1>Keane refers to the four O K, the the two away.

0:36:36.520 --> 0:36:39.440
<v Speaker 1>So Michael Sheldon, he's the executive director and chief investment

0:36:39.480 --> 0:36:42.960
<v Speaker 1>officer for High Tower r d M Financial Group. He

0:36:43.040 --> 0:36:47.640
<v Speaker 1>joined us via zoom from Westport, Connecticut. Michael, I don't

0:36:47.640 --> 0:36:51.080
<v Speaker 1>care about two give me your call. What's the letter

0:36:51.400 --> 0:36:53.080
<v Speaker 1>that What was in your letter that you sent out

0:36:53.080 --> 0:36:57.759
<v Speaker 1>to your clients preparing them for well? I think as

0:36:57.800 --> 0:37:01.319
<v Speaker 1>we obviously two thousand twenty two is certainly a roller

0:37:01.320 --> 0:37:03.600
<v Speaker 1>coaster over the year. As we look ahead to two

0:37:03.600 --> 0:37:07.840
<v Speaker 1>thousand twenty three, ultimately we're seeing some weakness in the

0:37:07.880 --> 0:37:10.400
<v Speaker 1>economy in the first half of the year. UM. Either

0:37:10.520 --> 0:37:13.520
<v Speaker 1>a slowed ending economy or shallow recession appears likely. If

0:37:13.560 --> 0:37:15.920
<v Speaker 1>you look at some of the data. For example, the

0:37:16.000 --> 0:37:18.839
<v Speaker 1>leading economic indicator has been negative for nine months in

0:37:18.840 --> 0:37:22.080
<v Speaker 1>a row. The yield curve continues to point to some weakness.

0:37:22.080 --> 0:37:26.560
<v Speaker 1>That's the difference between short and long term rates UM. Ultimately,

0:37:26.560 --> 0:37:28.400
<v Speaker 1>the Fed wants to see I think three or four

0:37:28.480 --> 0:37:32.359
<v Speaker 1>months in a row of positive meaning inflationary data that's

0:37:32.600 --> 0:37:35.800
<v Speaker 1>moving in the right direction. Today's data. You talked about

0:37:35.800 --> 0:37:39.040
<v Speaker 1>the PC data. There were no surprises in that, and

0:37:39.080 --> 0:37:42.439
<v Speaker 1>that's the good news. The core number, which the FED

0:37:42.480 --> 0:37:46.160
<v Speaker 1>watches fell from five to four point seven percent on

0:37:46.200 --> 0:37:48.600
<v Speaker 1>a year of a year basis, and that's the lowest

0:37:48.640 --> 0:37:51.759
<v Speaker 1>actually since the fall of two thousand twenty one. So

0:37:51.840 --> 0:37:54.560
<v Speaker 1>I think the FED wants to seem more positive inflation data,

0:37:54.600 --> 0:37:57.880
<v Speaker 1>and ultimately that will lead to a shift in FED policy,

0:37:58.360 --> 0:38:00.799
<v Speaker 1>probably in the spring of next year, after the FED

0:38:00.880 --> 0:38:03.160
<v Speaker 1>probably raises rates to five and a quarter or so,

0:38:03.280 --> 0:38:05.640
<v Speaker 1>five to five and a quarter or so, and we

0:38:05.719 --> 0:38:08.120
<v Speaker 1>see some possible weakness in the first half of the year,

0:38:08.120 --> 0:38:11.600
<v Speaker 1>but then ultimately we've see things recovering as investors start

0:38:11.640 --> 0:38:14.160
<v Speaker 1>to look ahead to a rebound in the economy and

0:38:14.200 --> 0:38:17.920
<v Speaker 1>corporate profits as we head into two thousand and twenty four. So, so, Michael,

0:38:17.920 --> 0:38:21.080
<v Speaker 1>what does that shift in FED policy or at least

0:38:21.080 --> 0:38:25.000
<v Speaker 1>communications look like to you? Is preservably not an actual

0:38:25.040 --> 0:38:27.560
<v Speaker 1>cut in rates, but at least the end of of

0:38:27.600 --> 0:38:31.000
<v Speaker 1>the tightening. Yeah, I think you know, if you look

0:38:31.040 --> 0:38:33.040
<v Speaker 1>at past if you look at past cycles when the

0:38:33.040 --> 0:38:35.920
<v Speaker 1>fedtest cut rates, the markets have rallied. In this situation,

0:38:36.000 --> 0:38:39.200
<v Speaker 1>we're likely to see the FED shift policy first by

0:38:39.239 --> 0:38:43.240
<v Speaker 1>indicating that they're moving to the sidelines because inflationary data

0:38:43.280 --> 0:38:46.399
<v Speaker 1>has has started to improve, but maybe they haven't met

0:38:46.480 --> 0:38:49.600
<v Speaker 1>all of their criteria just yet. So we will probably

0:38:49.600 --> 0:38:51.640
<v Speaker 1>see rates day at five to five and a quarter

0:38:51.719 --> 0:38:54.959
<v Speaker 1>percent through much of next year, unless things really change

0:38:54.960 --> 0:38:57.440
<v Speaker 1>where the credit markets free up freeze up, which we

0:38:57.440 --> 0:39:00.080
<v Speaker 1>don't see at this point. UM. So I think that

0:39:00.160 --> 0:39:02.800
<v Speaker 1>FED shifting policy sort of a more of a neutral bias,

0:39:02.960 --> 0:39:06.200
<v Speaker 1>will create a more positive environment for the markets. One

0:39:06.200 --> 0:39:08.279
<v Speaker 1>of the big questions we're thinking about is what kind

0:39:08.280 --> 0:39:11.719
<v Speaker 1>of weakness or what kind of recession we see next year.

0:39:12.280 --> 0:39:14.960
<v Speaker 1>And some people think it will be more serious. We

0:39:15.000 --> 0:39:18.080
<v Speaker 1>think it will probably be shallow. Um. For example, if

0:39:18.080 --> 0:39:21.120
<v Speaker 1>you look at the last nine recessions, the unemployment rate

0:39:21.200 --> 0:39:23.520
<v Speaker 1>rose each of those times on average by three point

0:39:23.560 --> 0:39:26.080
<v Speaker 1>four percent, So this time around, that would mean the

0:39:26.160 --> 0:39:30.200
<v Speaker 1>unemployment rate would rise to over seven But given the

0:39:30.280 --> 0:39:32.880
<v Speaker 1>labor market challenges that we see right now, companies are

0:39:32.880 --> 0:39:35.560
<v Speaker 1>still trying to hire a lot of workers. Um. We

0:39:35.640 --> 0:39:37.920
<v Speaker 1>see some layoffs, but we don't think that we're going

0:39:37.960 --> 0:39:40.399
<v Speaker 1>to see the kind of economic downturn that we saw,

0:39:40.480 --> 0:39:44.600
<v Speaker 1>for example, in in oh eight or two thousand two. Yeah,

0:39:44.600 --> 0:39:47.440
<v Speaker 1>it's tough to see kind of those types of unemployment rates.

0:39:47.440 --> 0:39:50.680
<v Speaker 1>When you got a Jolts number that's still over ten millions.

0:39:50.680 --> 0:39:53.719
<v Speaker 1>So so that's right, Michael, talk to us about the

0:39:53.760 --> 0:39:56.640
<v Speaker 1>consumer here, as we all know the consumer, you know,

0:39:56.640 --> 0:39:59.160
<v Speaker 1>its generally hanging in there. The consumer has a job

0:39:59.200 --> 0:40:02.839
<v Speaker 1>if here she won one. Yes, their savings have been

0:40:02.920 --> 0:40:05.680
<v Speaker 1>run down, yes, the running Usman credit card debt. But

0:40:05.719 --> 0:40:07.359
<v Speaker 1>you know, we had some good numbers out of Nike

0:40:07.600 --> 0:40:10.000
<v Speaker 1>and some others recently. How are you thinking about the

0:40:10.000 --> 0:40:13.279
<v Speaker 1>consumer going into twenty three. Yeah, it's important to keep

0:40:13.320 --> 0:40:15.800
<v Speaker 1>an eyeing the consumer because that represents about two thirds

0:40:15.800 --> 0:40:18.440
<v Speaker 1>of the U S economy. So I mean, looking backwards,

0:40:18.640 --> 0:40:20.399
<v Speaker 1>if you look at some of the jobs data, we've

0:40:20.400 --> 0:40:23.640
<v Speaker 1>created more than two hundred thousand jobs per month in

0:40:23.719 --> 0:40:26.319
<v Speaker 1>each of the last three months. So granted we had

0:40:26.320 --> 0:40:28.600
<v Speaker 1>a hold to climb out of out of COVID. The

0:40:28.680 --> 0:40:32.240
<v Speaker 1>unemployment rate right now is around three point seven percent,

0:40:32.280 --> 0:40:36.120
<v Speaker 1>which is the lowest level almost since ninety nine, and

0:40:36.440 --> 0:40:38.839
<v Speaker 1>wages are rising at a more than five percent rate.

0:40:39.160 --> 0:40:41.319
<v Speaker 1>So at the same time, that wage rate is one

0:40:41.360 --> 0:40:43.560
<v Speaker 1>of the sticky things that that Powell is trying to

0:40:43.560 --> 0:40:47.040
<v Speaker 1>bring down. UM, there are some signs that consumer spending

0:40:47.040 --> 0:40:50.440
<v Speaker 1>will slow equity markets and financial markets in general have

0:40:50.520 --> 0:40:53.640
<v Speaker 1>been volatile, and we're likely to see some more layoffs

0:40:53.640 --> 0:40:56.960
<v Speaker 1>as we head into next year. But but overall, Um,

0:40:57.360 --> 0:41:00.440
<v Speaker 1>the consumer overall is generally I am pretty good footing.

0:41:00.480 --> 0:41:03.319
<v Speaker 1>But we do see some slowing in consumer spending during

0:41:03.320 --> 0:41:06.359
<v Speaker 1>the first half of next year before things likely pick

0:41:06.440 --> 0:41:10.040
<v Speaker 1>up again. You know, Michael, with UH, these interest rates

0:41:10.120 --> 0:41:14.320
<v Speaker 1>expected pretty much by everyone, uh and you included, to

0:41:14.480 --> 0:41:18.000
<v Speaker 1>stay relatively elevated, say the FED funds rate above five

0:41:18.080 --> 0:41:22.960
<v Speaker 1>percent for three I think the general thinking is that,

0:41:23.840 --> 0:41:27.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, gains in the equity market strictly through valuation

0:41:27.239 --> 0:41:29.759
<v Speaker 1>expansion are pretty much off the table. That you know,

0:41:30.160 --> 0:41:33.080
<v Speaker 1>in that pe ratio, we really need to rely on

0:41:33.160 --> 0:41:35.560
<v Speaker 1>the E rather than just the P to get a

0:41:35.600 --> 0:41:38.879
<v Speaker 1>gain in in the equity market next year. Um. There's

0:41:38.880 --> 0:41:42.439
<v Speaker 1>a lot of skepticism about earnings, uh, the estimates where

0:41:42.440 --> 0:41:45.400
<v Speaker 1>they stand for next year. UM, But I'm curious how

0:41:45.440 --> 0:41:48.520
<v Speaker 1>you're thinking a about earnings. And you know, am I

0:41:48.640 --> 0:41:52.400
<v Speaker 1>right to think that valuation expansion is off the table

0:41:53.000 --> 0:41:56.240
<v Speaker 1>even if the Fed sort of pauses rather than signals

0:41:56.239 --> 0:42:00.160
<v Speaker 1>are cut. Yeah. In terms of valuation, the markets are

0:42:00.160 --> 0:42:04.480
<v Speaker 1>currently trading at about seventeen times forward earnings UM. Valuation

0:42:04.560 --> 0:42:07.720
<v Speaker 1>levels had pulled back substantially heading into the June lows,

0:42:07.760 --> 0:42:10.879
<v Speaker 1>and then they've sort of rallied. Valuation levels have moved

0:42:10.960 --> 0:42:14.200
<v Speaker 1>up with the market heading UM as the markets rallied

0:42:14.239 --> 0:42:18.239
<v Speaker 1>into the December highs. Right now, the outlook is for

0:42:18.320 --> 0:42:21.880
<v Speaker 1>corporate profits overall to rise about five for the SMP

0:42:22.000 --> 0:42:25.600
<v Speaker 1>five hundred next year, and those numbers have been coming down.

0:42:25.960 --> 0:42:28.239
<v Speaker 1>Our thinking is that earnings will numbers will have to

0:42:28.239 --> 0:42:31.560
<v Speaker 1>come down probably when companies start to report their fourth

0:42:31.640 --> 0:42:34.200
<v Speaker 1>quarter earnings, which will be sometime in January or the

0:42:34.200 --> 0:42:37.839
<v Speaker 1>second half of January. UM. It's it's a tough call

0:42:37.960 --> 0:42:41.000
<v Speaker 1>right now. Earnings for the next year two thousand twenty

0:42:41.040 --> 0:42:43.440
<v Speaker 1>three could very well be flatter or could be negative

0:42:43.480 --> 0:42:46.759
<v Speaker 1>actually on a year of a year basis. But ultimately

0:42:46.800 --> 0:42:49.720
<v Speaker 1>the markets bottom ahead of earnings, and the markets bottom

0:42:49.760 --> 0:42:52.040
<v Speaker 1>ahead of the economy. So that's why even if there

0:42:52.080 --> 0:42:54.920
<v Speaker 1>is a downturn next year, we think that the stock

0:42:54.960 --> 0:42:58.240
<v Speaker 1>market and bottom sometime in the in the spring or summer,

0:42:58.280 --> 0:43:01.719
<v Speaker 1>before earnings and before the economy starts to get get better.

0:43:02.000 --> 0:43:04.080
<v Speaker 1>All right, Michael, good Stuff, really appreciate you taking the

0:43:04.160 --> 0:43:07.879
<v Speaker 1>time on this Friday Christmas Eve Eve. Michael Sheldon, He's

0:43:07.920 --> 0:43:11.480
<v Speaker 1>executive director and chief Investment Officer of High Tower r

0:43:11.560 --> 0:43:16.120
<v Speaker 1>d M Financial Group, joining us via zoom from Westport, Connecticut.

0:43:16.719 --> 0:43:19.600
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:43:19.600 --> 0:43:22.759
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0:43:22.880 --> 0:43:25.279
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0:43:25.360 --> 0:43:29.080
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0:43:29.160 --> 0:43:37.280
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