1
00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,800
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:07,040 --> 00:00:08,920
Speaker 2: I'm delighted to be joined by the one and only

3
00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:11,560
Speaker 2: Larry Fink of Blackrock. Larry, thank you so much for

4
00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:15,280
Speaker 2: joining us. First of all, happy anniversary. There was that prospective.

5
00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:18,560
Speaker 2: So first of October nineteen ninety nine, we're Blackrock Republic.

6
00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:19,840
Speaker 1: So you're twenty five years young.

7
00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:24,400
Speaker 3: That's great reading, wasn't it. Yeah, it's a really good

8
00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:28,160
Speaker 3: day for us. It's our twenty fifth anniversary. It's our

9
00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,280
Speaker 3: day that we are closing GIP and right around this

10
00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:34,640
Speaker 3: time we're going to have our thirtieth anniversary here in Germany,

11
00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:37,360
Speaker 3: so it's a good day. I'm very pleased that our

12
00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:41,400
Speaker 3: stock performance is up close to eleven of thousand percent

13
00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:45,559
Speaker 3: over over that time, actually twenty times greater than the

14
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:45,960
Speaker 3: S and P.

15
00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,319
Speaker 1: So the market has changed so much in that time,

16
00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:48,960
Speaker 1: and it's amazing.

17
00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:50,839
Speaker 2: In twenty five years, you know, there's a lot more

18
00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:53,920
Speaker 2: private there's a lot more credits, you're gone into infrastructure.

19
00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:56,400
Speaker 2: I'm not going to ask you twenty five years to come,

20
00:00:56,440 --> 00:00:59,400
Speaker 2: we'll bring But what are you most optimistic about in

21
00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:00,000
Speaker 2: the next three years.

22
00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:01,480
Speaker 3: Well, I think one of the reasons why our stock

23
00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:04,280
Speaker 3: has done so well is I think we understood that

24
00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:06,840
Speaker 3: more and more of the global economy will be moving

25
00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,039
Speaker 3: to the capital markets. And I think all those things

26
00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:11,400
Speaker 3: you suggested is just an indication of all the movements

27
00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:13,560
Speaker 3: towards the capital markets. And I think this is going

28
00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:17,039
Speaker 3: to be broadly a world event. We're seeing more and

29
00:01:17,040 --> 00:01:21,280
Speaker 3: more countries focusing on their capital markets. A great economy

30
00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,480
Speaker 3: is an economy that has a strong capital markets and

31
00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:27,000
Speaker 3: a strong banking system. We've seen here in Europe historically

32
00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,960
Speaker 3: a strong banking system and a weak capital markets. That's

33
00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,800
Speaker 3: changing right now here in Europe, but in other countries

34
00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:35,600
Speaker 3: like Japan, you had the Kashia government doubling down their

35
00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:40,880
Speaker 3: retirement tax deductibility for a product that they have a

36
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:44,360
Speaker 3: desire to building out their capital markets. In India, Prime

37
00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:47,039
Speaker 3: Minister Modi is focusing on retirement to building out their

38
00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,920
Speaker 3: capital markets to broaden their entire economy. And I think

39
00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,360
Speaker 3: that's the movement for the next twenty five years in

40
00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,600
Speaker 3: front of us, a further broadening of the global capital markets,

41
00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:02,880
Speaker 3: whether that is private debt, infrastructure debt, private equity, venture capital.

42
00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,040
Speaker 4: And I think this is important.

43
00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:06,840
Speaker 3: And if I look back over the twenty five years,

44
00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,440
Speaker 3: one of the strengths that I see is because of

45
00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:13,040
Speaker 3: the strengths of the US capital markets. The US influence

46
00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:15,640
Speaker 3: in the world has become broader and greater than it

47
00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,080
Speaker 3: was twenty five years ago. And that is because of

48
00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:19,600
Speaker 3: the depth of the capital markets.

49
00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:21,519
Speaker 2: In all of this, there where do you find the

50
00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:23,720
Speaker 2: best deal? So, for example, infrastructure, if you look at

51
00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,000
Speaker 2: the closure of GIP It's today.

52
00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,720
Speaker 1: This is a massive play. What does it mean for integration?

53
00:02:28,919 --> 00:02:32,320
Speaker 2: What does it mean for actually have fundraising for infrastructure?

54
00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,160
Speaker 3: Well, GIPS in the midst of closing a twenty five

55
00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:42,440
Speaker 3: billion dollar infrastructure product, the old Blackrock, our infra team

56
00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,960
Speaker 3: is going to be raising another ten billion dollars, and

57
00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:50,120
Speaker 3: then we announce a partnership with Microsoft, Navidia and MGX.

58
00:02:51,240 --> 00:02:54,840
Speaker 3: We have aspirations of raising thirty billion dollars of equity

59
00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:58,520
Speaker 3: and then beyond that more debt associated when we build

60
00:02:58,520 --> 00:03:01,840
Speaker 3: out these AI data. So to me, this is the

61
00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:05,480
Speaker 3: dawning of infrastructure. When I look around the world today,

62
00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:10,240
Speaker 3: I see the inadequacies of infrastructure in almost every country.

63
00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:13,480
Speaker 3: So we need to be decarbonizing, we need to be digitizing,

64
00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:15,800
Speaker 3: we need to be moving forward. We need to be

65
00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:17,880
Speaker 3: building out more and more. And I think this is

66
00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:19,840
Speaker 3: one of the big issues. As I wrote in an

67
00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,320
Speaker 3: editorial a few months back, to the FT and I

68
00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:26,519
Speaker 3: spoke of the G seven. I spoke about every economy

69
00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,760
Speaker 3: needs to focus on growth. There's too much focus on

70
00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,360
Speaker 3: should we lower taxes, should we raise taxes?

71
00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:34,960
Speaker 4: Not enough how do we stimulate growth?

72
00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,920
Speaker 3: And I think infrastructure is a major component of how

73
00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:41,720
Speaker 3: we stimulate growth, and we don't because of the breath

74
00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:43,880
Speaker 3: of the capital market. We don't have to rely on

75
00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:48,520
Speaker 3: federal spending or state spending. There is enough capital in

76
00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,080
Speaker 3: the private sector that we'll be able to fund these

77
00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,520
Speaker 3: new projects. And so to me, this is the dawning

78
00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,520
Speaker 3: of the new reality that we're going to see broadening

79
00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:01,360
Speaker 3: of public and private investing for infrastructure.

80
00:04:01,440 --> 00:04:03,760
Speaker 2: Is there a worry that it becomes quite political? So

81
00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:06,920
Speaker 2: there are a couple of projects Malaysia and Minnesota that

82
00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:08,200
Speaker 2: have been politicized.

83
00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:10,600
Speaker 1: Is there a danger that infrastructure becomes a new ESG.

84
00:04:12,360 --> 00:04:15,280
Speaker 3: I see a very different outcome of that. This is

85
00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,880
Speaker 3: helping government build out their infrastructure. There is no question

86
00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,080
Speaker 3: there may be one project or another project that may

87
00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:26,480
Speaker 3: be politicized for one reason or another, but overall, in

88
00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:30,960
Speaker 3: my conversations with politicians worldwide. They know they're in need

89
00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,640
Speaker 3: of more private capital. So I dearly hope it's not politicized.

90
00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,880
Speaker 3: If it's politicized in one location, it means money's going

91
00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:41,960
Speaker 3: to seek another safer spot, and so you always have

92
00:04:42,080 --> 00:04:45,640
Speaker 3: those type of risks. But capital is free moving and

93
00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,080
Speaker 3: capital is going to be seeking a safe, sound investment.

94
00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:52,600
Speaker 3: We are the largest retirement manager in the world. Our

95
00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,240
Speaker 3: job is to try to be finding investments on behalf

96
00:04:55,279 --> 00:05:00,520
Speaker 3: of our retirees, to find safe outcomes over a long

97
00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:01,240
Speaker 3: period of time.

98
00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:03,320
Speaker 4: So if there is an event that.

99
00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:07,440
Speaker 3: Politicizes that money will leave and money will seek another destination.

100
00:05:07,920 --> 00:05:10,200
Speaker 2: Where does the smart money stay away from? Is writ

101
00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:13,400
Speaker 2: anywhere in the markets where either something price perfection or

102
00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:14,119
Speaker 2: it's too risky.

103
00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,200
Speaker 1: I know we talk about commercial real estate.

104
00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:19,920
Speaker 4: Markets move up and down. You always see you mentioned

105
00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:20,880
Speaker 4: like commercial real estate.

106
00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:23,799
Speaker 3: You see too much money moving in one to one area,

107
00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:25,960
Speaker 3: then then it runs away from it.

108
00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,880
Speaker 4: I think that's that's what markets do.

109
00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,840
Speaker 3: We test the outer boundaries of pricing and it becomes

110
00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:37,200
Speaker 3: maybe a level in which that we don't find it's

111
00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:39,800
Speaker 3: a great outcome for a long term investing it, and

112
00:05:39,839 --> 00:05:43,400
Speaker 3: then money moves to another destination. I think that's a

113
00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,719
Speaker 3: natural movement, so I'm not worried about one area versus

114
00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,120
Speaker 3: another area. Then one other thing that I think everybody

115
00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:51,800
Speaker 3: asked me, is you know, is a market so pricey

116
00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:56,479
Speaker 3: and yet all this geopolitical issues. I would argue today,

117
00:05:56,600 --> 00:06:00,599
Speaker 3: because of the expansion of the global capital markets, we're

118
00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:04,760
Speaker 3: diffusing more risk than everything. There is actually less systemic

119
00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:06,159
Speaker 3: risks today than ever before.

120
00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:07,680
Speaker 4: You mentioned private credit.

121
00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:11,680
Speaker 3: Private credit is chiefly matching a liability and an ass together.

122
00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,520
Speaker 3: It's not leveraging eight to one like in a banking system.

123
00:06:14,720 --> 00:06:19,440
Speaker 3: That's a good example of diffusing some systemic risk. But

124
00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:22,760
Speaker 3: as more and more capitals broadening out how they invest

125
00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:27,200
Speaker 3: where they invest, that actually reduces less concentration in one area.

126
00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:32,600
Speaker 3: Of course, we've seen, especially in cities, a decline in

127
00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:36,360
Speaker 3: commercial real estate, but that's a natural process, but there's

128
00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,520
Speaker 3: nothing systemic about it. You may lose money on one building,

129
00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:42,920
Speaker 3: but you're moving into other destinations like data centers. You're

130
00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:46,320
Speaker 3: moving into different cities that may have rising population growth.

131
00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,240
Speaker 3: But you know, you can't fight demographics. So there's some

132
00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:52,120
Speaker 3: cities that are shrinking. Obviously, commercial real estate in those

133
00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:55,400
Speaker 3: cities are going to be declining with that declining population, lar.

134
00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:58,480
Speaker 2: What's your play in private credit? How much bigger do

135
00:06:58,520 --> 00:06:59,960
Speaker 2: you want to? How much do you want to?

136
00:07:00,640 --> 00:07:03,880
Speaker 3: We have large aspirations, as we wrote about it last year,

137
00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,480
Speaker 3: and we continue to be building out a private credit

138
00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:10,040
Speaker 3: area and there's more to come. We're very excited about

139
00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,080
Speaker 3: our position. If you just think about the role of

140
00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:17,240
Speaker 3: infrastructure debt. If you think about what we announced with

141
00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:21,120
Speaker 3: MGX and Microsoft raising thirty billion dollars equity, but we're

142
00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:22,760
Speaker 3: going to have to We're going to raise one hundred

143
00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,160
Speaker 3: to one hundred and twenty billion dollars of debt associated

144
00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,040
Speaker 3: with those data centers. So I actually believe as we

145
00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:31,400
Speaker 3: move out in building out more and more infrastructure investing,

146
00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:35,560
Speaker 3: you're going to see more infrastructure or private credit associated

147
00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:38,320
Speaker 3: with that. And so that will also represent a great,

148
00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:43,119
Speaker 3: great opportunity that you have a hyperscaler like a Meta,

149
00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:47,400
Speaker 3: like a Microsoft, like an Amazon, that you have their

150
00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,240
Speaker 3: credit that you're going to be able to leverage it

151
00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:53,040
Speaker 3: up and provide returns, stable returns over fifteen twenty years,

152
00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,280
Speaker 3: because that's what those leases will be these data centers,

153
00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:58,960
Speaker 3: and so you have a great opportunity for long term.

154
00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:03,320
Speaker 2: Investing US economy, and we talked about US exceptionalism. Do

155
00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,040
Speaker 2: you worry that Actually there are two very different outcomes

156
00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,800
Speaker 2: with the US election that could bring the economy in

157
00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:09,920
Speaker 2: different ways.

158
00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:17,000
Speaker 3: Both candidates have in many cases very similar views on

159
00:08:17,080 --> 00:08:21,200
Speaker 3: making the US even stronger. Both candidates and their interpretation

160
00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:25,080
Speaker 3: how that they happen, it may differ. Our job is

161
00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:27,640
Speaker 3: to work with any political position. Our job is to

162
00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,720
Speaker 3: be working with the US government, like we're here in Germany.

163
00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:32,959
Speaker 3: We're working with the German government. There's going to be

164
00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:35,680
Speaker 3: election here next year too. Our job is to be

165
00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:39,720
Speaker 3: working with societies and building a platform together. And so

166
00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:41,560
Speaker 3: we're not trying to make any judgments.

167
00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:45,960
Speaker 2: But you deploy capital differently under President Trumps and under

168
00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:47,080
Speaker 2: President Harris.

169
00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,320
Speaker 3: On a margin that much, No, I think we over

170
00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,280
Speaker 3: conflate what it means. I mean, I don't think the

171
00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:56,040
Speaker 3: US is going to be pivoting that much depending on

172
00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:59,480
Speaker 3: one outcome. You know, we're not focusing on the day

173
00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:02,160
Speaker 3: to day movements of markets from focus on is a

174
00:09:02,240 --> 00:09:05,320
Speaker 3: US and exceptional place to invest for five years, ten years,

175
00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:06,320
Speaker 3: twenty years.

176
00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:07,920
Speaker 4: That's what we're focusing on.

177
00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:10,400
Speaker 3: Yes, there may be moments where you could have a

178
00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:14,040
Speaker 3: ten percent or even a fifteen or twenty percent downdraft,

179
00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:17,920
Speaker 3: Does that represent a major shift or does that represent

180
00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:18,760
Speaker 3: an opportunity?

181
00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:20,640
Speaker 4: And so you have to look at it that way.

182
00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:23,360
Speaker 3: In most cases, over the last thirty years, anytime you

183
00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,040
Speaker 3: had a ten or twenty percent downdraft, you wanted to

184
00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:29,040
Speaker 3: be there standing by and buying, and those who ran

185
00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:32,520
Speaker 3: away over a twenty year horizon have lost a lot

186
00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:33,680
Speaker 3: of possible return.

187
00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:35,240
Speaker 1: Are you optimistic about Europe?

188
00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,200
Speaker 2: So you're one of the biggest shareholders and unit credit,

189
00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,240
Speaker 2: you're one of the biggest shareholders in the commerce bank. Yes,

190
00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,560
Speaker 2: does a combination needs you know? Does it make a

191
00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:44,400
Speaker 2: bit of impetus for Europe? Does it make sense?

192
00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:50,120
Speaker 3: I am a very large believer on a banking and

193
00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:52,520
Speaker 3: a capital markets union. I think that's the strength of

194
00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:55,520
Speaker 3: the United States. Europe needs to do that. I've read

195
00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:58,480
Speaker 3: a Droggy report because we are large sareholders and both.

196
00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:04,679
Speaker 3: I don't talk about any any activity about one organization

197
00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:09,560
Speaker 3: versus another, but technically I look at the strength of

198
00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:13,240
Speaker 3: the United States and much of the strength is because

199
00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,720
Speaker 3: of the strength of our capital markets and our banking system.

200
00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:20,320
Speaker 3: Europe needs a stronger capital market system, and it needs

201
00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:23,800
Speaker 3: a more unified banking system, and I think that's going

202
00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,800
Speaker 3: to be urgently necessary for Europe to go to the

203
00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:27,319
Speaker 3: next step.

204
00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:29,959
Speaker 1: So as a shareholder, you don't get involved. Have you

205
00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:31,400
Speaker 1: spoken to the chief executives?

206
00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:35,960
Speaker 3: I talk about it. And two, I don't do any

207
00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:39,280
Speaker 3: of the voting at Blackrock myself. That's not my responsibility.

208
00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:42,240
Speaker 3: Let me just say I speak to a lot of

209
00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,960
Speaker 3: executives on this. I speaks a lot of politicians on

210
00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,800
Speaker 3: these matters, and that's between me and the politicians.

211
00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:51,240
Speaker 1: What's your take on China right now?

212
00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:55,600
Speaker 3: I would have said before these Chinese actions of last week,

213
00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:59,880
Speaker 3: in terms of the massive fiscal and monetary policy shifts,

214
00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,199
Speaker 3: China was going from bad to worse. I think they

215
00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:08,360
Speaker 3: recognize now that their economy was, you know, descending quite rapidly.

216
00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,200
Speaker 3: There was a lack of confidence and I think we're

217
00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:13,200
Speaker 3: gonna have to wait and see is this enough to

218
00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:19,760
Speaker 3: stabilize the I would say the failings of confidence. And

219
00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,120
Speaker 3: as I spoke to more and more executives in China,

220
00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,920
Speaker 3: there was a fear that, you know, we haven't found

221
00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:26,840
Speaker 3: the bottom yet.

222
00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,840
Speaker 4: Could this be the bottom for China?

223
00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,560
Speaker 3: You know, I think systematically, you're going to see more

224
00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:36,200
Speaker 3: and more companies diversifying their supply chains, and you're seeing that.

225
00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:39,679
Speaker 3: You're seeing India is a great destination. You're seeing Philippines

226
00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,800
Speaker 3: and Vietnam as great destinations. Closer to the United States,

227
00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:45,560
Speaker 3: Mexico has been an incredible destination for more and more.

228
00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:49,200
Speaker 4: Manufacturing, and so that's not going to change.

229
00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:52,480
Speaker 3: We are going to see a systematic change in how

230
00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:56,080
Speaker 3: we manage supply chains. I think COVID taught us a

231
00:11:56,120 --> 00:12:00,480
Speaker 3: lot of lessons on two larger dependencies. With all the

232
00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:03,760
Speaker 3: disruptions and supply chains that everybody's waking up to, we

233
00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:04,199
Speaker 3: need to.

234
00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:05,920
Speaker 4: Have more resilient supply chain.

235
00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:09,439
Speaker 3: Just before COVID, we talked about we need we need,

236
00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:12,360
Speaker 3: you know, the most efficient supply chain. When you have

237
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:17,160
Speaker 3: those issues, efficiencies didn't work and we had real big disruptions.

238
00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:20,600
Speaker 3: And every company's focusing on a more a broadening, a

239
00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:24,000
Speaker 3: more diversified supply chain so you don't have these tuff

240
00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,360
Speaker 3: of disruption and that's the fit that's going to.

241
00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:31,640
Speaker 4: Be a down draft for China. So that's not that

242
00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:32,840
Speaker 4: will be continuing.

243
00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:36,760
Speaker 2: You seem very bullish about I guess the next two

244
00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:37,440
Speaker 2: to three years.

245
00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:38,360
Speaker 1: But there's a lot of.

246
00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:41,440
Speaker 2: You know, there's China, there's a lot of unsettled politics.

247
00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:43,480
Speaker 2: There's AI, which I know you're playing through Microsoft and

248
00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:46,400
Speaker 2: data centers. Is there anything that unsettles you that the

249
00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:47,320
Speaker 2: world is moving through.

250
00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,760
Speaker 4: Look, I think every moment it's unsettling.

251
00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,960
Speaker 3: The war in Ukraine, which we haven't talked about, is

252
00:12:54,000 --> 00:13:00,840
Speaker 3: incredibly unsettling and very destabilizing for Europe. The war in

253
00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:04,480
Speaker 3: the Middle East right now with Lebanon and Gaza is

254
00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:08,880
Speaker 3: very unsettling. At the same time, as I said, we

255
00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:13,000
Speaker 3: are broadening the capital markets. Even with these type of disruptions.

256
00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:18,200
Speaker 3: We're not seeing disruption in the energy market, and we're

257
00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,800
Speaker 3: not We're seeing more diversification, and so the markets are

258
00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,160
Speaker 3: able to overcome some of these. Now, if they create

259
00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:28,640
Speaker 3: more supply chain disruptions, they create supply chain disruptions for

260
00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,239
Speaker 3: energy that changes the whole ecosystem.

261
00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:33,760
Speaker 4: But right now, I don't see.

262
00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,880
Speaker 3: Anything that really, to me, is going to be disrupting

263
00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,640
Speaker 3: this tremendous momentum. The amount of trillions of dollars that

264
00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,800
Speaker 3: are going to be necessary for infrastructure investing is going

265
00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:48,040
Speaker 3: to be vital to uplift the economies worldwide. And this

266
00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:51,240
Speaker 3: is why I'm still urging more and more economies to

267
00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:54,480
Speaker 3: focus on growth, focus on how to build out their

268
00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:58,199
Speaker 3: infrastructure that will lift up the economy and create great jobs.

269
00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,000
Speaker 2: When you look at the US E commy, you're not

270
00:14:00,040 --> 00:14:03,079
Speaker 2: you're expecting a soft landing or is there danger actually

271
00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:04,080
Speaker 2: that we get?

272
00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:06,280
Speaker 4: I don't see any landing.

273
00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:08,120
Speaker 3: The economy is going to continue to grow at two

274
00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:09,320
Speaker 3: plus three percent.

275
00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:11,280
Speaker 4: I don't even know why we use a landing.

276
00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:14,280
Speaker 3: Landing last time means it goes to zero, it goes

277
00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:17,280
Speaker 3: you know, I don't, I know we use those words.

278
00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:21,920
Speaker 3: It's really fun to talk about. I've been very consistent.

279
00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:23,880
Speaker 3: We are not We're not going to have a hard landing.

280
00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:25,200
Speaker 3: But I don't want to see a soft land We're

281
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:27,880
Speaker 3: going to continue we continuing to move and navigate it.

282
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:28,520
Speaker 4: That is.

283
00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,680
Speaker 3: But despite all that, there are segments of the economy

284
00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,000
Speaker 3: that are struggling. There are segments of the economy that

285
00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:36,880
Speaker 3: are doing really well. We are you know, we spend

286
00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,360
Speaker 3: so much time focusing on the segments that are doing poorly.

287
00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 3: And I'm not trying to suggest that's not the right

288
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,080
Speaker 3: thing to do, but we're not looking at in the

289
00:14:44,120 --> 00:14:46,880
Speaker 3: holistic way that other parts of the economy are doing

290
00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:49,920
Speaker 3: really really well. Look at corporate earnings overall, they've been

291
00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,800
Speaker 3: very strong, and I think they're going to continue to

292
00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,400
Speaker 3: be very strong. We have, you know, we we do

293
00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:58,840
Speaker 3: have segments of the economy that are very strong. And

294
00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:00,640
Speaker 3: I think that's why. I don't know why we talk

295
00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:03,000
Speaker 3: about a harder soft line and we're continuing. We're going

296
00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:04,320
Speaker 3: to grow it two to three percent.

297
00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:05,520
Speaker 1: It's the FED watchers.

298
00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,600
Speaker 2: Blame the FED watchers because they're all who are they?

299
00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:12,200
Speaker 3: I don't follow them, By the way, let me just

300
00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:13,040
Speaker 3: tell you why to the right.

301
00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,000
Speaker 4: Let me just tell you. I think the forward curve

302
00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:15,920
Speaker 4: is wrong.

303
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,400
Speaker 3: We're not going to see and I think the Chairman

304
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:20,600
Speaker 3: Palace said that yesterday. You know, we're going to be

305
00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:24,200
Speaker 3: patient as we I think the amount of easing that's

306
00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:26,560
Speaker 3: in the forward curve is crazy. I mean, I do

307
00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,960
Speaker 3: believe there's there's there's room for easing more, but not

308
00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:31,800
Speaker 3: as much as a forward curve would indicate.

309
00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:33,720
Speaker 1: And this is what a flaw in the markets. A

310
00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,680
Speaker 1: flawns markets.

311
00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:39,960
Speaker 3: Markets move, they have to readjust and I think yesterday

312
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:43,720
Speaker 3: was a small readjustment. I mean, I don't look at

313
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:45,520
Speaker 3: this as a problem. You're talking about the TikTok on

314
00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:47,920
Speaker 3: the market. I don't spend any time on the TikTok

315
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:49,840
Speaker 3: on the market. I'm aware of it, but I'm not

316
00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:53,040
Speaker 3: you know, whether it's you know, the consideras are tightened,

317
00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:55,200
Speaker 3: I mean, ease is another one hundred, one hundred and fifty.

318
00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,400
Speaker 4: We'll see, we'll see. I mean, you know, I think

319
00:15:58,440 --> 00:15:58,960
Speaker 4: we are.

320
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,160
Speaker 3: I see more policies by more government that tend to

321
00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:05,680
Speaker 3: be more inflation ay than deflationary. And so with that

322
00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:08,960
Speaker 3: in mind, it's hard for me to see another two

323
00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,000
Speaker 3: hundred base of points of decline insure rates.

324
00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:12,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna use that.

325
00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,160
Speaker 2: You know, the TikTok of the market is fine, but

326
00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:16,480
Speaker 2: secondary Larry, as always, thank you so much for joining us.

327
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:18,240
Speaker 1: Larry Fink, Black Rock Chairman,