1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:03,000 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:05,480 Speaker 1: your bets. It is B Joey P joe Pisapia and 3 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 1: this is BP NFL. Joining me is the Undertaker Andrew 4 00:00:09,640 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: Rickson for a look ahead at the championship games this Sunday. 5 00:00:13,520 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: That's right, we have our final four, everybody, and we 6 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:20,759 Speaker 1: are just one more round away from the Super Bowl, which, oh, 7 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: we'll talk about that for days and days and days 8 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 1: and days. But Andrew Rickson, certainly a really fun weekend 9 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:29,560 Speaker 1: of football passed us. Maybe not so much of your 10 00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:31,840 Speaker 1: Alliance fan, Maybe things were a little bit tougher for you. 11 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: I get that. I was a tough kick in the 12 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 1: Nuts Ravens fans as well. Very difficult there to watch 13 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: literally that game slip through the hands of Mark andrews 14 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: now once but twice. But we are on to Buffalo, 15 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 1: Kansas City. We are on to the Commanders and Eagles. 16 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 1: And Andrew Rickson, what's so interesting about the Commanders and 17 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: Eagles is we talk about it all season long. These 18 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: teams in divisions are built to play each other, and 19 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: now they're going to play each other in an NFC 20 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: championship game. Jane Daniels has put on a credible performance 21 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 1: these last few weeks. He is the truth. He could 22 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 1: do something that nobody's done. Right. Rookie quarterbacks don't get 23 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: to Super Bowls, right, he is right here on the 24 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: precipice of doing that right now. I gotta tell you, 25 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: I understand there was some weather in that Philadelphia game. 26 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 1: I get all that. Jalen Hurts looks hurt to me, 27 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,120 Speaker 1: and I could tell you I'm sure they're going to 28 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:23,040 Speaker 1: pump them full of all sorts of fun things to 29 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 1: play this game. I think the confidence right now the 30 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:30,119 Speaker 1: Commanders dare I say, I'm drinking the kool aid? Andrew Erickson, I. 31 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 2: Mean you're probably not alone. I mean, I was pretty 32 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 2: surprised to see how big the spread is, but you 33 00:01:35,720 --> 00:01:37,479 Speaker 2: know it's there for a reason. There is a reason 34 00:01:37,480 --> 00:01:39,960 Speaker 2: why it's more than a field goal. Despite the fact 35 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:42,760 Speaker 2: that we've seen this team play the Philadelphia Eagles in 36 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 2: games that I believe the first matchup was by a 37 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 2: field goal spread. Now that was at home for the Commanders. 38 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 2: It's a little bit different. But I look with the 39 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts, you know he's banged up. He's not the 40 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 2: recipe for them to win games. Wait, has this been 41 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 2: the Jalen Hurts. Oh, it's been Jalen Hurts he had 42 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 2: that's the reason the Eagles are here. That is not 43 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 2: true whatsoever. They're here because of Segon Barkley and their defense. 44 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 2: So that's where I've kind of look at this matchup 45 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 2: where I don't really care what Hurts does. All he 46 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 2: used to do is do enough, which is what he's 47 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 2: been doing the past month or so, where he's throwing 48 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 2: for every time I look, his pass attempts PROP is 49 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:21,040 Speaker 2: down from the week before, every single week. Because that's 50 00:02:21,040 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 2: not how the Eagles win games. They win the games 51 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 2: by Sagle Barkley rushing for two hundred yards and their 52 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 2: defense locking down the deposing offense. So, yes, do the 53 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:30,920 Speaker 2: Commanders have the matchup advantage with the quarterback? 54 00:02:31,240 --> 00:02:31,520 Speaker 1: Yeah? 55 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 2: I don't think I'm going out on a limb by 56 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 2: saying that Jay Nails is clearly playing much better quarterback 57 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 2: than Dylan Hurts his. But the other factor, who has 58 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 2: a better defense the Eagles do, who has a better 59 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 2: run game the Eagles do, and who can't stop the 60 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:45,679 Speaker 2: run the Washington Commanders. I mean, if they had just 61 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 2: given the ball to Jamier Gibbs. I think the Lives 62 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 2: have had a better shot of winning that game. 63 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: Maybe so well. They did certainly feed Gibbs Gibbs every 64 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 1: Lance moments. Look, you can't turn the ball over as 65 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 1: much as the Lions did or as much as the 66 00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:59,679 Speaker 1: Ravens did. Let's be honest. Turnovers will kill you in 67 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: these poff games against good teams over. 68 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 2: Either Hurts doesn't try to turn them all. He's very like, 69 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 2: I'm not throwing into any tight win now. 70 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 1: I think there's a difference between playing conservatively and smartly 71 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 1: and then playing limited. I'm worried about the limitations there, 72 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: but we're going to get into it. Matt Parolt and 73 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 1: I just did a live stream. If you miss he 74 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: can go back and watch on the channel to where 75 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 1: we broke down these games too. I've also got an 76 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 1: approach I want to take to some of these games too, 77 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 1: looking ahead at some of the exactas, because I think 78 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 1: there's some extraordinary value if you see the board the 79 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: way I do, maybe not the way Andrew Erickson does. Well, 80 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: let's start here, Washington Commanders right now, six point underdogs, 81 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 1: going on the road to Philadelphia. You can throw that 82 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: last game that they played against each other out the 83 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: window because of the injuries there at the quarterback position. 84 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 1: Forty seven and a half is the total plus two 85 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: forty on the money line for the Commanders. Now, Matt 86 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:45,960 Speaker 1: Parolt was saying that he thinks this is going to 87 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: get the seven. He's seeing it at six and a 88 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: half already in some markets, and he's waiting for it 89 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 1: to get the seven. Now, He's like me, he thinks 90 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 1: the Commanders can keep this one close. Jade Daniels, you 91 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 1: know the ice water in the veins, whatever you want 92 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: to call man, That dude is unfazed. I think it 93 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 1: is much tougher to go in and win Detroit in 94 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: that setup against that team, with everything, with the noise 95 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: in that building inside, than it is to go to 96 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: a place where you are familiar and you are comfortable. 97 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: And I gotta tell you, like I just I think 98 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 1: it's a very different situation that he's walking into. And 99 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 1: maybe he falls short, and maybe this is when Cinderella 100 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 1: loses the Slipper. But I am on the Commander's side 101 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 1: here with the points Andrew orics, and you must feel differently. 102 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 2: I do. I do because I think for some reason, 103 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 2: and I don't just I don't disagree with your analysis 104 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:34,160 Speaker 2: of it. I think it makes sense when you're just, 105 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,280 Speaker 2: you know, Joe Shmo or Joe pisp is looking at 106 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 2: this line, it's. 107 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: Like, although I did see the Joe Schmoe Show is returning, 108 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: which I'm very excited about it. I love the original. 109 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 1: It was very entertaining. What if the whole world was 110 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 1: just a reality show and I was the only one 111 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 1: who was being real eight actors around me? 112 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:55,159 Speaker 2: But why would you not just take the commanders? Especially 113 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 2: if he gets to plus seven? That seems like it 114 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:58,920 Speaker 2: makes so much sense to me. But sure, then I'm 115 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:00,719 Speaker 2: looking in well, why is the Lyne what it is? 116 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 1: Then? 117 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 2: Like, why is more money coming in on the Philadelphia Eagles? 118 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:05,840 Speaker 2: Because they're playing at home, they're dominant defense, and they 119 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 2: can run the football against one of the worst run 120 00:05:07,400 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 2: defenses in the NFL. 121 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: So for me, and they're also the team that's been 122 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 1: there the most, Like you have to also keep in 123 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: mind this is also a team that's paramily been in 124 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: the playoffs the last three years now, So there's a 125 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 1: comfortability in the market to bet the Eagles. They're at home, 126 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: they are experienced, Why would you but again, if you 127 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,840 Speaker 1: kept using that logic last week, then Jade Daniels had 128 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:26,279 Speaker 1: no shot and. 129 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 2: You were we thought, that's what we all thought. 130 00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 1: But isn't there a guy who sat here for I 131 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: don't know, twenty weeks now and told me about these 132 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 1: Indivision games? Man, these teams always it's always much closer 133 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 1: than you realize. Shouldn't you be on the commanders even 134 00:05:38,240 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: if you think the Eagles are gonna win? 135 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 2: I again, I'm having trouble wrap my mind around the spread. 136 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 2: I would say, is where. 137 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 1: I So, what would you set it at? Then? What 138 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:48,479 Speaker 1: was your life? 139 00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 2: I mean, it should be closer, Like I don't disagree 140 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 2: with you. I think it should be like if I 141 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 2: was Again, I haven't done the full VP right up. 142 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 2: But again, I ultimately think the Eagles is gonna win. 143 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 2: So that's kind of like the side that my mind 144 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:00,839 Speaker 2: is kind of going to and when you're going to. 145 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:03,800 Speaker 2: I do disagree with you about the environment though. I 146 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 2: think going to play on the road against the Philadelphia 147 00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 2: Eagles defense is way different than playing guts. The Lions 148 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:08,279 Speaker 2: defense is terrible. 149 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 1: Like, yes, Daniels, then from the the the volume of 150 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 1: that building, that building was so loud, you cannot hear 151 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: the announcers. That's how blob that bill is crazy for 152 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:18,839 Speaker 1: the first ten minutes of that game. 153 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 2: And I don't think it really I mean, I think 154 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 2: Daniels has shown that it doesn't really meant like I mean, 155 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 2: the guy's on like you said, like he's unfazed by anything. 156 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 2: Like there could be it could be I don't know 157 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 2: how loud, just like it could be the loudest stadium efver. 158 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 2: It probably wouldn't make a difference with Jane Daniels. But 159 00:06:34,320 --> 00:06:36,280 Speaker 2: I just go back to how do the Eagles win games? 160 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: How do they cover sprides? They play defense and run 161 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 2: the football? Right, So that's kind of where this lie. 162 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 2: I guess in my mind, I'm trying to explain, like 163 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:43,640 Speaker 2: how is this a touchdown? 164 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 1: Like? 165 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 2: How are the Eagles favorite by a touchdown? But the 166 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 2: last couple of times I've been like, am I taking 167 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:50,480 Speaker 2: crazy pills? I've been totally on the wrong side of 168 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 2: those games the last couple of times. So I'm trying 169 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 2: to learn a lesson be like, right, but I think 170 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 2: I'm taking crazy pills. Maybe I'm not taking crazy pills, 171 00:06:57,279 --> 00:06:59,159 Speaker 2: and maybe there's a reason why the Eagles are such 172 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:02,280 Speaker 2: heavy home favorite. So I'm leaning towards the Eagle side 173 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 2: of things, but I don't necessarily disagree with your rationale 174 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 2: for being on the Commanders. And ultimately, I just think 175 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 2: I think the Eagles win, and that's kind of what 176 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:09,920 Speaker 2: I feel the most confident about. 177 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 1: I agree with per Alto. If you like the Yes Commanders, 178 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 1: you wait, You wait as long as you can, and 179 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: you try to lock in the biggest number you can. 180 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 1: And that's why you set the custom line alerts on 181 00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 1: the betting pros app download it, think your sports books 182 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:24,840 Speaker 1: for free, set the line alerts, wait for it to 183 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: hit seven. When it hits seven, then you jump in there. 184 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:29,000 Speaker 1: And I think that's probably your best approach. And you 185 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: can take the thrill approach to you, which is a 186 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: sprinkle someone the plus two forty just for s's and g's. Uh, 187 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:34,480 Speaker 1: go ahead, Andrew. 188 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 2: I will say the one thing that you can't forget, Joe, 189 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 2: all year long. What happens to teams after they play 190 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 2: the Lions? What happens to those. 191 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: They lose to the Lion? 192 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 2: No? 193 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: No, no, just after they lose to the Lions. 194 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 2: It's just if they play the Lions. Because again, obviously 195 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 2: most teams lose the Lions, right, I was gonna say. 196 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: Because they all lose. It's the Honolulu flu. I get it, I. 197 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 2: Get it, I get but they won, Okay, but it 198 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 2: still doesn't matter. Like every team that plays the Lions 199 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 2: the next week, there's been one team that's on a 200 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 2: normal amount of rest because you've seen a couple teams 201 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 2: cover when they've had rest advantages after playing the Detroit Lions. 202 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 2: Only one team has covered after playing the Lions, and 203 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 2: it was the Chicago Bears and that gross Thursday night 204 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 2: game after Christmas where the final score was six to 205 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 2: three and the spread was three and a half points. 206 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: God. 207 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 2: Yes, that's the one game this year where a team 208 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 2: is covered after playing the Lions. So again, if you're 209 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 2: into the trends, that's another reason why. Hey, maybe this 210 00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 2: is why the Commanders don't cover it, because maybe they're 211 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 2: getting over inflated because of what they did to Detroit 212 00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 2: Lions defense. That I mean with that once they lost 213 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 2: meeg Robertson, like they couldn't do anything defensively. And the 214 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 2: Eagles are on the total end of the spectrum where 215 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 2: the defense or the Eagles is viewed as the number 216 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 2: one defense in the NFL. So yeah, well. 217 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 1: I'm correct me if o're wrong. The defense did play 218 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 1: the last time against Hydan Daniels, even though Jalen Hurts 219 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 1: got knocked out of that game. How many points did 220 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: the Eagles defense give up to? 221 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 2: They scored a lot of points, especially the fourth quarter, 222 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 2: but Devantae Smith did drop a pass that gave the 223 00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 2: Commanders a chance get back in the game. 224 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,199 Speaker 1: So keep that in mind, so they would always capable 225 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:06,320 Speaker 1: of that. Remember that that's always capable. The total is 226 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 1: forty seven and a half right now, that it's probably 227 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 1: forty seven and a half for both games, which is kind 228 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 1: of like, jerks, like, what do you do? That's no 229 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: fun at all? Why do you give me the same 230 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 1: total on two games? Vegas? You're a bunch of jerks, 231 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 1: but you have a lean right now on this number 232 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 1: at all. Is before we start to dissect Buffalo and Casey. 233 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 2: I mean I like the Unders. I mean you have cold, 234 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 2: but again, you're coming off two games where you had 235 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 2: an overgame with the Snow because it seems like every 236 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 2: Snow game just like scores a flurry of points. See 237 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:36,480 Speaker 2: what I did there? So I like I like both 238 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 2: games honestly, Again, we have gone chief spills. Yet I 239 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 2: like both games to go under forty seven and a half. 240 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 2: And if you look at just historically, what's happened when 241 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 2: these two teams play at home, like Eagles games, nine 242 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 2: to last ten home games they've played have gone under 243 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,439 Speaker 2: the total. Last week it didn't, but Stafford was making 244 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 2: plays left and right. So I think that these are 245 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 2: both unders for me. 246 00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: All right, let's take a look and see if Josh 247 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 1: Allen can exercise the demons. You're getting plus one and 248 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 1: a half of the bills most markets. You're looking at 249 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 1: minus one and a half on Kansas City, So no 250 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: Patrick mahomes underdog, So we could take that narrative out 251 00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:07,839 Speaker 1: of it. The total, as Andrews says, forty seven and 252 00:10:07,840 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 1: a half, he's in the under for that one. Which 253 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 1: that one, I'm not so sure about to. I think 254 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: these teams just let it all hang out. Plus one 255 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:15,839 Speaker 1: ten on the money line for the Buffalo Bills, minus 256 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 1: one thirty for the Kansas City Chiefs. Now Andrew Ericksson. 257 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:23,480 Speaker 1: You can't just beat the Kansay Chiefs. You have to 258 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: beat them into submission. And I just don't know if 259 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 1: they're ready to be beaten into submission. I just don't recent 260 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 1: trends tell you. Also, the guys who win MVPs typically 261 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: either don't win Super Bowls or even get to the 262 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: Super Bowl. It's been Josh Allen's year. I think he's 263 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 1: probably going to win the MVP when all of a sudden done. 264 00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: Maybe it's Lamar, but it does feel like Josh Allen 265 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 1: was the way things were going at the end. But 266 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: here we are the Buffalo Bills once again. I'm worried 267 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 1: about that defense. And that defense did come up with 268 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:52,640 Speaker 1: a big play in a big moment, knocking that ball 269 00:10:52,640 --> 00:10:54,199 Speaker 1: out from Mark Andrews. I give them a ton of 270 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,319 Speaker 1: credit on that one, But then they did on the 271 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 1: very next drive let Lamar Jackson march down the field 272 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 1: and basically should have tied that football game. That is 273 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: my concern with the Buffalo Bill's defense. The Chiefs don't 274 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: miss in those spots Lamar Jackson, then the Ravens just 275 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: never hitting them. That is the big difference to me. 276 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: I'm on the Chiefs here. I don't think this is 277 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 1: the exercising of the demons for Josh Allen. Unfortunately, I 278 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:18,559 Speaker 1: love Josh Allen. He's a good dude, I don't think 279 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 1: he gets it here. I think the Chiefs smell this 280 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 1: three peat and they are one game away. What are 281 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: your thoughts? 282 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:24,880 Speaker 2: I feel like the Chiefs aren't even playing their best football. 283 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,080 Speaker 1: They show these glimmers like every week they're getting better. 284 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 1: It's like, man, by the time we get to February ninth, 285 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 1: we're gonna be really good. Right. 286 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 2: It feels like whoever they play, if again, if they again, 287 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 2: I'm on the chief side here too, until I'm just 288 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 2: gonna keep betting on my homes until I have a 289 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:44,079 Speaker 2: reason not to right again. It's just like you think that, oh, 290 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 2: finally we're gonna get parody final. It's gonna be somebody else, 291 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:48,920 Speaker 2: and then it never is. Like there's a reason why 292 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:50,839 Speaker 2: the Patriots won all these super Bowls because they were 293 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 2: the best team, and they're the best team every single year. 294 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 2: And yes, they went through a quarterbacks. 295 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,760 Speaker 1: It's just and what did they do. They always took 296 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: care of their business in their regular season to first 297 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 1: round by and had two home playoff games to get there. 298 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 1: And guess what, that's a much easier road than going 299 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: on the road. It's so much easier than going to 300 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,079 Speaker 1: hostile environments to be playing at home in your own 301 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: bed two weeks to get to the super Bowl. That's 302 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 1: why it was a special sauce. 303 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 2: And I think two it almost works in the Bills 304 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:19,079 Speaker 2: or in the Chief's favor that the one team that 305 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 2: did beat them this year was the Bills, right, so 306 00:12:21,280 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 2: they have like a terisation that's, oh, this is the 307 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 2: one team that beat us besides the Denver game that 308 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 2: didn't really count. Whereas you might think, oh, well Buffalo knows, hey, 309 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:30,959 Speaker 2: we beat this team already, like we can, we can 310 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:33,319 Speaker 2: match up with these guys. I feel like that motivation 311 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 2: doesn't work, especially after they Josh Allen was like posting 312 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 2: like nobody believed in us, like we don't have any 313 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 2: Talent's like all right, man, like people believed and you 314 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 2: maybe could. They were underdogs at home, So I will 315 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 2: give him that point. And I like the Ravens too, 316 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 2: but yeah, I'm on on the chief side here. 317 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:49,319 Speaker 1: Well look all the Sharps. I think we're on the 318 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 1: Ravens this past week, and honestly, I don't think it 319 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 1: was wrong. I think they just are they allergic to 320 00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:57,480 Speaker 1: giving Derrick Henry the ball and two point conversions, which 321 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 1: is curious is that? Like, I mean, it's it's snowing, 322 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,840 Speaker 1: it's ten degrees. You've got Derrick Henry two yards away 323 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 1: from a goal. Lie, Can we just hand the ball 324 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: to Derrick Henry? Can we just do that once in 325 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 1: a while? 326 00:13:09,480 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 2: I mean, it should have worked out. The one live 327 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 2: bet though, I made, was the Derrick Henry over in 328 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 2: the second half, which hit like in the first drive. 329 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: There you go, well, look here's the other thing too. 330 00:13:20,080 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: I do think it's ironic that that is the loss 331 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 1: that they have, right because I think it's it's the 332 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 1: best thing that could happen for the Bills because it 333 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 1: gives them confidence that, look, we can do this right. 334 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:32,080 Speaker 1: We could take it to them. We've done it before, 335 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: we could do this right. But it's the best thing 336 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 1: that could happen to the Chiefs too. And that's the 337 00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 1: worst thing that could happen to the Bills, because they 338 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: already know this is the one that got us, this 339 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 1: is the one that costs us a perfect season on 340 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,720 Speaker 1: the way there. We know how dangerous they are. We've 341 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 1: seen them before. We know they're gonna bring everything we've 342 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 1: got and we're gonna be prepared for it. So it's 343 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,839 Speaker 1: not like they're sleepwalking through a lesser opponent. They are 344 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 1: gonna be ready to go. And honestly, I think the 345 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: winners coming out of the AFC regardless, I don't think 346 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: either of those two teams in the NFC are gonna win. 347 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 1: That's my opinion. When they get there, especially if it's 348 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 1: the Chiefs, I think the Chiefs would destroy the Commanders. 349 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:07,679 Speaker 1: I think the Chiefs will handle the Eagles and Nick 350 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 1: Sirianni once again, and spec Nole is gonna continue to 351 00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: do what he does, which is, you know, we give 352 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: Andy Reid a lot of credit. I don't think we 353 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 1: give spae Nola enough credit. He's one of the great 354 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 1: defensive coordinators we've ever seen in the league. And he 355 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 1: has beaten Tom Brady twice. He has gone out there 356 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: with Patrick Mahomes and this this team here with Andy Reid, 357 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 1: and yeah, the offense makes some plays, but man, the 358 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: defense does too sometimes and you got to give him credit. 359 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: They dial it up at the right time. It didn't 360 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 1: again against the Texans in the second half of that game. 361 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I just think that until we see it, you know, 362 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 2: don't don't I mean, don't ruin your Sunday don't bet 363 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:43,760 Speaker 2: against Patrick Mahomes at home in the playoffs. Like, that's 364 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 2: just how you ruin your Sunday. So again, ending from 365 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 2: like a live perspective, it's just how the Bills jump 366 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 2: out to a league. Well take the Chiefs money line 367 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 2: there you go, great value on the on the Chiefs live. 368 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm right there with you, Patrick Mahomes on 369 00:14:56,720 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 2: the way to the three peat. 370 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: All right, real quick, I want to talk about this 371 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 1: because I talked about on the live stream. So if 372 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 1: you're like me and you think, all right, I think 373 00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:09,000 Speaker 1: the Commanders have whatever it is, They've got that thing, 374 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 1: but I think it's gonna run out. What I just do, 375 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:14,840 Speaker 1: you can right now on FanDuel least bet the Kansasity 376 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: Chiefs to beat the Washington Commanders of plus seven fifteen. 377 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: And if you really believe in Josh Allen, you could 378 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 1: also beat bet the Buffalo Bills to beat the Commanders 379 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: at plus nine hundred. Now you're gonna lose a unit here, right, 380 00:15:26,840 --> 00:15:29,360 Speaker 1: because you can't have your cake and eat it too. 381 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 1: But if you think the Commanders get there and no 382 00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 1: matter what, lose to one of these AFC teams, as 383 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: I believe, Yeah, you're gonna eat a little bit, but 384 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 1: this is one of the best heads you can get. 385 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 1: Instead of betting this team to win the Super Bowl 386 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: outright or this, take these exacts right now that you 387 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 1: can get because you're gonna eat a unit. But these 388 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: returns of plus seven fifty and plus nine hundred, I'm 389 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 1: still coming up away in the black on those. Andrew Erickson, 390 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 1: the other numbers that exist right now, again, these are 391 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: on FanDuel. I'm not sure what the other numbers are 392 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:58,200 Speaker 1: on other sites, but Philly to beat the Bills plus 393 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 1: four seventy, Philly beat the Chiefs plus three eighty, Bills 394 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 1: to beat the Eagles plus four thirty, and the Chiefs 395 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: to beat the Eagles plus three sixty. So again some 396 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 1: good returns, almost plus four hundred on all of them. 397 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: So it's almost like choose your own adventure. But the 398 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 1: one that gives you the biggest profit return is the 399 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: commander's getting there and losing to one of the AFC teams. 400 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:21,400 Speaker 1: What do you think about my master plan? 401 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 2: I think I like it, yeah, because I think I 402 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,240 Speaker 2: think that I don't know what the what the odds 403 00:16:26,240 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 2: are for you know which to which conference wins the 404 00:16:28,160 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 2: Super Bowl. Now I have to imagine it's on the 405 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:35,600 Speaker 2: AFC side. Yeah, I gotta imagine it's minus a large 406 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 2: number for the AFC to win. So this is a 407 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 2: way you can kind of like, hey, the market is 408 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 2: telling us the AFC is gonna win. We think they're 409 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 2: gonna win. How can we take advantage of that with 410 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:45,560 Speaker 2: the biggest payout? And I think that you kind of 411 00:16:45,600 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 2: laid out the perfect strategy there. 412 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: And it's not about betting the hypothetical matchups either, because 413 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,280 Speaker 1: the hypothetical matchups, you know, and things like that like okay, 414 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: this team to faces, no, no, just go right for 415 00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: the you're gonna beat them, because if I don't think, 416 00:16:58,040 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: I don't think any NFC team could beat any of 417 00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: the two. I just don't. That's where I'm at. So 418 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,359 Speaker 1: the biggest return is the Commanders pull a rabbit out 419 00:17:05,359 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: of their hat again where you keep telling him they 420 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:09,680 Speaker 1: can't and he keep making the underdog. And Jane Daniels 421 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:12,439 Speaker 1: gets up every morning, has his cheerios and play some 422 00:17:12,560 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 1: VR and it goes out and kicks some mass and 423 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:16,959 Speaker 1: guess what, He's all out of cheerios right now. All 424 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 1: he's got left is ass kickens to hand out. That's 425 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:21,679 Speaker 1: what it feels like right now. So we're gonna continue 426 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: to break down this game more tomorrow. Andrew and I 427 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 1: will be live Wednesday three pm Eastern on the channel. 428 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 1: We're gonna have a lot of coverage here going through 429 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: this weekend leading up to the games. We want you 430 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:32,960 Speaker 1: to be here for it. Subscribe to the YouTube channel, 431 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 1: Subscribe to Betting Pros where ever you get your podcast, 432 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 1: and of course don't forget to ring the bells that 433 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: the COEs ding for notification so you never miss an 434 00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: episode of the podcast, of the live stream. We're here 435 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,679 Speaker 1: for you all year long and all things betting in 436 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 1: all sports. That'll do it for us. But the story 437 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,399 Speaker 1: of the game goes on for Andrew ericson. I'm Joey p. 438 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 1: We'll see you next time, Gidz. 439 00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. 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