1 00:00:03,560 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: There are moments in failing presidential campaigns when statements of 2 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: the obvious become lifelines for survival. The thinking is, if 3 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: the campaign concedes what every other person around it knows 4 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: to be true, that somehow that credibility will give it 5 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: a fresh shot, or, in the case of Ronde de Santis, 6 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 1: a new shot at life. De Ron de Santa's campaign 7 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 1: is functionally broke and largely collapsed. He has no chance 8 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 1: whatsoever of being the Republican nominee, but his presence and 9 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: come and collapse in the race will determine the candidate 10 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:48,840 Speaker 1: who will rise, most likely Tim Scott, the South Carolina 11 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: Republican senator who is moving into third place in Iowa 12 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:57,279 Speaker 1: and New Hampshire polls. It's important to understand the connection 13 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 1: between Senator Kim Scott and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. 14 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 1: Their races and their rationales for victory are deeply linked. 15 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: They're interconnected. Chris Christie is betting that he can beat 16 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 1: Donald Trump in New Hampshire. In order for that to 17 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 1: happen for Chris Christie, he needs Tim Scott to win 18 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: in Iowa. 19 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 2: If Tim Scott can win in Iowa. 20 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: And Chris Christie can beat Trump in New Hampshire. That 21 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:32,040 Speaker 1: means heading into South Carolina, the Republican front runner Trump 22 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 1: will have gone. 23 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:34,119 Speaker 2: Oh for two. 24 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: And if that happens, Tim Scott can absolutely win the 25 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 1: South Carolina primary, meaning Trump will be oh for three. 26 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 1: Trump's strength in the Republican primary is largely illusory. It's 27 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: built on the idea that he's inevitable because he's unbeatable, 28 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: but all of that collapses and fades. 29 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:56,400 Speaker 2: Away if he's beaten. 30 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: What Trump has going for him right now is that, 31 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:04,520 Speaker 1: once again, there is a stage full of Republican candidates 32 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:08,799 Speaker 1: who have no chance whatsoever of being the Republican nominee. 33 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: There are a mix of gadflies and dilettantes like vivk Ramaswami, 34 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 1: Nikki Haley, and Mike Pence. But amongst them are the 35 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: candidates that can be Trump and that will continue to 36 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 1: rise in the polls and could in the end wind 37 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 1: up being the Republican nominee. Many in the national press 38 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: and the national media have written Chris Christie off, saying 39 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 1: his campaign is a fantasy. They're the deluded ones, not 40 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 1: Chris Christie. They've done the same thing to Tim Scott again, 41 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: it's the national media who is deluded. I predicted Tim 42 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: Scott's rise in March, just like I predicted Chris Christie's 43 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 1: a few months back. Both of them will play an 44 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: outsize role in the coming months in the debates, and 45 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: between them. There is hope that Donald Trump will be 46 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: denied the nomination, as he is about to be indicted 47 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:11,119 Speaker 1: on racketeering charges for interfering in the election in Georgia, 48 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 1: on federal charges for the coup he incited and staged 49 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:19,959 Speaker 1: on January sixth, And of course that doesn't even count 50 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 1: his thirty seven criminal felony charges under the Espionage Act 51 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 1: for his mishandling of America's most important secrets, including our 52 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 1: nuclear secrets. It is an astonishing betrayal of his oath 53 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: of the country and her people. The simple fact is this, 54 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: according to the polls, which probably overstate the case, Joe 55 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 1: Biden in this moment is comfortably beating Donald Trump. What 56 00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: Donald Trump has conned Republican voters on more than any 57 00:03:56,200 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: other aspect of his rancid reign is this. Yes, somehow, 58 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 1: one of the greatest losers in the history of American 59 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: politics has convinced Republican voters that in fact, he is 60 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: a winner. It is a con that has destroyed the 61 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 1: Republican Party. Thank you for listening to my political commentary. 62 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: If you like what you heard today, please also consider 63 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 1: subscribing to The Warning daily newsletter on Substack. Our democracy 64 00:04:28,040 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 1: hangs in the balance. The twenty twenty four presidential election 65 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:36,720 Speaker 1: is the most consequential in America's history. It's not hyperbole, 66 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: it's a fact. That is why the mission of The 67 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: Warning with Steve Schmidt is to help readers orient to 68 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:47,800 Speaker 1: the currents that are shaping our times and the unseen 69 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:53,600 Speaker 1: forces driving politics that are very rarely discussed on cable news. 70 00:04:54,000 --> 00:05:01,799 Speaker 1: Please sign up at Steve Schmidt Steve sa Idt dot 71 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: substack dot com again Steve Schmidt dot substack dot com, 72 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 1: or at the link in the show notes section below. 73 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: Thank you to each and every one of you for 74 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 1: listening and watching. Meanwhile, if your Governor Ron de Santis 75 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 1: and your campaign has collapsed and it's. 76 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 2: Broke, where do you go? What do you do? Well? 77 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 2: For the tallahassee Mussolini and his crew. 78 00:05:33,640 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: He decided to get out of the humidity in Florida 79 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:40,800 Speaker 1: and come to my hometown Park City, Utah, to the 80 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: mountain air and the cool breezes, the insolvent and broke 81 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: rond de Santa's campaign decided to stay at the plush 82 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a night stein Erickson Lodge up in 83 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:53,160 Speaker 1: Deer Valley. 84 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:55,120 Speaker 2: It was there at the. 85 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: Thousand dollars a night lodge that they talked about the 86 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:03,159 Speaker 1: campaign reset and glorious days to come with no further ado. 87 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 1: Let me read from the Alex Eisenstadt story from Politico 88 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: that describes the scene. Top officials on Florida Governor Ron 89 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 1: DeSantis's campaign acknowledged to donors on Sunday that they'd spent 90 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 1: too much money and that further changes would be made 91 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: as they looked to recover from a disappointing start. According 92 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:28,839 Speaker 1: to three people who were present for the discussion, appearing 93 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: before around seventy of the campaign's top contributors at the 94 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:37,159 Speaker 1: stein Erickson Lodge in Deer Valley, Utah, DeSantis's campaign manager, 95 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: Genera Peck, said money had been spent on operations that 96 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:45,279 Speaker 1: turned out to be ineffective and that the campaign would 97 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 1: move to a leaner quote insurgent posture end quote moving forward. 98 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:58,200 Speaker 2: Among the changes being made were to quote expose and quote. 99 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 1: Voters to Dessantis Moore, said Nick Airasi, a Florida based 100 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: lobbyist and fundraiser who was at the event. 101 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 2: Let Ron be. 102 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:13,120 Speaker 1: Ron added Irasi, that's what got him here, that's what 103 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 1: made him the leader that he is in Florida. We're 104 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: going back to our basics on all of this. It's 105 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 1: great to read these quotes out loud, because each of 106 00:07:23,840 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 1: them is more nonsensical than the last. Let Ron be Ron, 107 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 1: I think that's a big part of the problem, because 108 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: this guy wearing the white rubber boots, that's Ron. 109 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 2: That's what he decided to wear to walk out on the. 110 00:07:40,240 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 1: Dry pavement after a storm to meet his constituents. 111 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:45,720 Speaker 2: I guess it's his adventure outfit. 112 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 1: The person who wears it that I will never, and 113 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: I mean never be elected president of the United States. 114 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: And of course, there is his odd lifestyle preference for 115 00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 1: eating pudding with his fingers, which apparently he dips into 116 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: the bowl and then sucks from in front of his 117 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 1: staff and other completely horrified and mystified people who are 118 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 1: subjected to Ron DeSantis's cavalier disregard for basic manners and 119 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,000 Speaker 1: the dignity of people sitting. 120 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:24,560 Speaker 2: In front of him. Ron de Santis was the front. 121 00:08:24,400 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 1: Runner for a brief, shiny moment, and since then he's 122 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 1: dropped like a rock from a very very very high mountain. 123 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 2: And here's the thing in politics. Dropped rocks, they don't bounce. 124 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 1: Ron de Santis is finished because his campaign is bankrupt 125 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 1: because they hired nearly one hundred people on it and 126 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,319 Speaker 1: they didn't establish the cash flow, and it's all gone now. 127 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:54,840 Speaker 1: And it's a good thing because Ron de Santis is 128 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:59,439 Speaker 1: a bully of the first rank, a kick down type 129 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: of guy who seeks to divide instead of inspire. 130 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 2: A Mini Trump, a Diet Trump. 131 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 1: And what Republican voters have said is, we'll take the 132 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 1: real thing over the fake one, even though Mini Trump 133 00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: is just as fascist and just as antagonistic to basic 134 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: decency and all of the things that Trump assaults on 135 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:26,679 Speaker 1: a daily basis. 136 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 2: It's just that he has no humor. 137 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: He's really strange, and his utter lack of charisma makes 138 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 1: him a pale Trump imitator, like a skinny elvis in 139 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:45,319 Speaker 1: a plastic jumpsuit. Who wants it when you can get 140 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 1: the real thing just down the road in mar A 141 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: Lago at any rate. Chris Christie is on Trump in 142 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:57,720 Speaker 1: New Hampshire and he's picking up just like Tim Scott 143 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 1: is in Iowa. If Donald Trump succumbs to the Scott 144 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:08,320 Speaker 1: Christy Weiss their pincer movement in those early states, it 145 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: puts South Carolina in play. And if Donald Trump goes 146 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,679 Speaker 1: oh for three, his balloon is popped. 147 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 2: He'll fade from power. He'll be weakened in an instant 148 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 2: like Putin. 149 00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,440 Speaker 1: He may be able to hang on for a while, 150 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 1: but it won't be very long until he succumbs, and 151 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 1: then the Republican Party will finally, at long last, be 152 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 1: free of Donald Trump. It will take a long time 153 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: to pick up the damage. It will take many, many 154 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 1: years to excise the cancer. The canker that he leaves 155 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 1: behind will be an infected one, a grotesquery, a stain 156 00:10:55,120 --> 00:11:01,679 Speaker 1: on the soul of Abraham Lincoln's party. Time he will 157 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 1: be completely forgotten. There will be no presidential library for Trump. 158 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 1: No president will hang his portrait in the White House, 159 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: and he will be remembered as little more than a 160 00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 1: stain on the great history of the United States. But 161 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:24,520 Speaker 1: until that time, he remains the country's greatest domestic threat, 162 00:11:25,600 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: and he's made clear that there is nothing that he 163 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 1: won't say and that he won't do in an effort 164 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 1: to try to regain power. And what that means is 165 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:43,280 Speaker 1: there will be turbulent, chaotic days ahead in the nation's politics. 166 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 1: It will create a mirage that the country is weak, 167 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 1: hopelessly divided, corrupt, decaying and rhyme, and of course there 168 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 1: is some truth to those things, because a country that 169 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: isn't in some way state of decay does not elect 170 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: a man like Donald Trump to be the commander in 171 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 1: chief and the person whose finger is on the nuclear button. 172 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 1: That only happens in a country where there is a 173 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 1: problem with lassitude and apathy, a lack of concern about 174 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: our children's future. The American people once again will have 175 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 1: a choice, and the race is not shaping up to 176 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,199 Speaker 1: be the one that the national media tells us that 177 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 1: we're going to get. They tell us every day it 178 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: will be a Trump Biden rematch, but increasingly it looks 179 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 1: like it will be a three way race, and maybe 180 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: Donald Trump won't make it at all. He may not 181 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,800 Speaker 1: if Tim Scott takes him in Iowa, if Chris Christy 182 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 1: can pinch him in New Hampshire. In about a month, 183 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:03,079 Speaker 1: the replace public and campaign for president will begin in earnest. 184 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 1: The numbers will start to move, They'll become dynamic, will 185 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: have a better sense by Thanksgiving. It's the equivalent of 186 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: halftime in the NFL game. That is the presidential primary. 187 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 1: Christmas is like the two minute warning, and then it's 188 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 1: a full on sprint. 189 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 2: To the end. How's Tim Scott doing. 190 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,959 Speaker 1: He's right where he needs to be to win the 191 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:34,120 Speaker 1: only place he needs to which is the first place 192 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 1: he can win, Iowa. If he wins there, everything changes 193 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:44,320 Speaker 1: and it sets Chris Christie up for a big win 194 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,559 Speaker 1: in a state that has a long history of fast, 195 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:54,559 Speaker 1: sudded dynamic shifts towards the end of the race. It's 196 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:58,199 Speaker 1: what happened to John McCain, and it could certainly happen 197 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: to the former New Jersey governor. All of the experts 198 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 1: are coming around to what you heard here first many 199 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: months ago. The race is going to be different than 200 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:17,599 Speaker 1: the one you're being sold. Watch for the movements, the rhythms, 201 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 1: the signs that show is coming to pass Trump's collapse 202 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,880 Speaker 1: and the rise of a new breed of candidates inside 203 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:30,720 Speaker 1: the Republican Party. They may turn out to be just 204 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: as bad and just as dangerous, but at least they 205 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 1: won't be Donald Trump