WEBVTT - Apple Explores Robots as ‘Next Big Thing’ After Car Fizzles

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg business Week inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 2>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 2>global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 2>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, let's get to a stock that is definitely really

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<v Speaker 3>a company that's on our mind today.

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<v Speaker 4>Tim, Yeah, sure's Apple right now, hired by about three

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<v Speaker 4>tenths of one percent. It's a company we uh one.

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<v Speaker 4>We all hit on in the headlines yesterday when this

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<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg exclusive crossed. We talked about it and talked about

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<v Speaker 4>it and talked about it and what might be could

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<v Speaker 4>be perhaps the next big thing in Apple. Carol, we're

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<v Speaker 4>talking personal robots that maybe could follow you around the house.

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<v Speaker 4>They do the long other things.

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<v Speaker 3>If they do work, I'm in all right. We wanted

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<v Speaker 3>to know more. Back with us on at exclusive is

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg News Chief technology correspondent Mark German. He's out there

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<v Speaker 3>in our la be k. Mark so laid out for

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<v Speaker 3>us what exactly is Apple exploring and how far along

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<v Speaker 3>are they in this process?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, thank you both so much for having So let

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<v Speaker 1>me take you back to twenty nineteen Doug Field, who

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<v Speaker 1>now runs the electric vehicle division at Ford. He joins

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<v Speaker 1>Apple to run its electric car project, and one secret

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<v Speaker 1>team within the larger electric car group is a team

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<v Speaker 1>dedicated to robotics devices. They were working on drones that

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<v Speaker 1>essentially were silent. That was a really cool thing they

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<v Speaker 1>looked at. They ended up mixing that and then they

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<v Speaker 1>were also looking at personal robotics. Now that took a

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<v Speaker 1>back went to the back burner for many years, but

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<v Speaker 1>now the company is seriously looking at personal robotics in

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<v Speaker 1>the home. Two main devices that they've been looking at,

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<v Speaker 1>one that originated many years ago is a tabletop device.

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<v Speaker 1>It's essentially a gigantic ipadcted to a robotic arm, and

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<v Speaker 1>it can follow the head movements of someone you're on

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<v Speaker 1>a FaceTime call with. So if I nod my head

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<v Speaker 1>or shake my head or laugh haha, right, the iPad display,

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<v Speaker 1>you can move on the robotic arm. Yes, iPad display

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<v Speaker 1>will move on the robotic arm to mimic those movements.

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<v Speaker 1>If I was on a FaceTime call with the other person,

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<v Speaker 1>to make them feel like I'm, you know, maybe in

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<v Speaker 1>the room with them, even though it is an iPad

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<v Speaker 1>mimicking my head. The other thing, perhaps more interesting, is

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<v Speaker 1>the idea of a robot, a humanoid robot, even that

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<v Speaker 1>can follow you around your home, can be a video

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<v Speaker 1>conferencing telepresence device, and even one pie in the sky

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<v Speaker 1>idea that maybe will never come to fruition or maybe

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<v Speaker 1>a decade or two from now, could actually do chores

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<v Speaker 1>for you, such as cleaning the dishes before you put

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<v Speaker 1>the dishwasher.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, yeah, I thinking Jetsons. That's what I'm thinking that robot.

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<v Speaker 4>I would I would argue that, you know, of all

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<v Speaker 4>the things that you mentioned in terms of use cases,

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<v Speaker 4>the one I think that would be most compelling to

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<v Speaker 4>people would be an assistant around the house to actually

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<v Speaker 4>help with those things that we have to do each

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<v Speaker 4>and every day, like unloading the dishwasher, doing dishes, cooking.

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<v Speaker 5>And the like.

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<v Speaker 4>That seems to me, I mean, I don't want to

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<v Speaker 4>dismiss anything that Apple's working on outright, but that seems

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<v Speaker 4>to me pretty far fetched in years away. Here. What's

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<v Speaker 4>the timeline that we're talking about here?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, One it is far fetched. Two, it may never happen.

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<v Speaker 1>Three These are ideas that are being floated around. They're

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<v Speaker 1>looking what is the technology landscape look like ten years

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<v Speaker 1>from now. You see Tesla with Optimist Prime, you see

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<v Speaker 1>other companies doing early explorations into the robot space, and

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<v Speaker 1>so that's what they're doing.

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<v Speaker 6>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>These are research projects. These are not formal consumer product

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<v Speaker 1>development processes. These are still in the very early infant

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<v Speaker 1>research phases. So if these ever come to fruition, this

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<v Speaker 1>could be a decade from now. Don't forget the length

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<v Speaker 1>of the car project was really a decade long before

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<v Speaker 1>they ended up killing it. They did make a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of headway in the last couple of years or so,

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<v Speaker 1>I'd say, so I think this is pipe dream stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>but certainly the market is interesting. What Apple's looking at

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<v Speaker 1>and what it's exploring, and they're sort of planting a

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<v Speaker 1>flag in the robotic space.

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<v Speaker 3>Now gotta say, Mark love my room to love that

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<v Speaker 3>it cleans up the floors. I already talked to a

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<v Speaker 3>digital home assistant like this just feels like from somebody

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<v Speaker 3>I could see that if it really could do stuff,

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<v Speaker 3>how people would adopt it. But it also I also

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<v Speaker 3>wonder kind of about the cost of it and how

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<v Speaker 3>expensive it would be.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it could be anything. It could be ten

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<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars, it could be twenty thousand dollars, right, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean the robotics equipment to create a device that can

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<v Speaker 1>be a human and act like a human, those things

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<v Speaker 1>are going to be extraordinarily expensive. If the Apple headsets

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<v Speaker 1>thirty five hundred dollars, the amount of technology that goes

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<v Speaker 1>into this could be tens of thousands of dollars. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>the thing to note here, I mean this is basically

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<v Speaker 1>a semi diluted version of the engine they were working

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<v Speaker 1>on for the car. If you think about it as

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<v Speaker 1>self driving car is the ultimate robot would be a

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<v Speaker 1>robot that's not going to be on city streets. This

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<v Speaker 1>is going to be a robot that's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>in your home. And if you think about it, repurposing

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<v Speaker 1>that technology at much lower stakes makes sense. Profit margins

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<v Speaker 1>are different in the home versus on the road. The safety,

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<v Speaker 1>more importantly, is very different. You're not at risk of

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<v Speaker 1>this so called robot running someone over or getting you killed.

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<v Speaker 1>You're at risk of the robot running into your new

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<v Speaker 1>chair and damaging maybe the bottom of your chair or

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<v Speaker 1>a new couch or something.

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<v Speaker 4>That dogs dogs and cats, maybe Mark, until it starts

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<v Speaker 4>throwing plates at you and it gets frustrated.

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<v Speaker 6>Hey.

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<v Speaker 4>Mark. The backdrop of this, though, of course, is looking

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<v Speaker 4>for the next big revenue generator for Apple. And you

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<v Speaker 4>write about this, and you write about the different products

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<v Speaker 4>and how much revenue they've brought in based on the

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<v Speaker 4>year that they were introduced. So talk a little bit

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<v Speaker 4>about how Apple is looking for something to essentially augment

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<v Speaker 4>revenue from the iPhone as iPhone sales slow down and

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<v Speaker 4>people upgrade slower.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I would say that Apple really only has

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<v Speaker 1>one ecosystem today, It's the iPhone. Everything is built around

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<v Speaker 1>the iPhone. I would argue even the Mac and the

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<v Speaker 1>iPad are part of the iPhone universe. Right, You probably

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<v Speaker 1>own a Mac and an iPad or a Vision Pro

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<v Speaker 1>or whatnot because you own an iPhone. You can take

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<v Speaker 1>out the word probably for the Apple Watch and AirPods

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<v Speaker 1>because those really only work with the iPhone. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>one hundred percent if you own an Apple Watch or

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<v Speaker 1>in AirPods, it's because you own an iPhone. All these

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<v Speaker 1>Apple services that exist, Apple Music, Fitness Plus, Arcade, et cetera,

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<v Speaker 1>it's because you own an iPhone. What they need to

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<v Speaker 1>do is create subsequent ecosystems, new ecosystems.

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<v Speaker 6>They don't have one other than the iPhone, so they

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<v Speaker 6>need to.

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<v Speaker 1>Find that the car would have been that. It's unclear

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<v Speaker 1>what else could create its own ecosystem other than a car,

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<v Speaker 1>and robots in the home could be the closest thing.

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<v Speaker 1>And so that's why it's a particularly interesting area.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, Mark, just thirty seconds here. How much of this

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<v Speaker 3>is kind of part of their focus another focus at

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<v Speaker 3>the company, which is artificial intelligence. This kind of what

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<v Speaker 3>folds into this and plays into this a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, if you think about it, a robot is the

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<v Speaker 1>ultimate expression in terms of hardware of artificial intelligence. A

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<v Speaker 1>robot is an AI powered device. A self driving car

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<v Speaker 1>would be an AI powered device. So if this comes

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<v Speaker 1>to market, whether it's the tabletop device sooner or a

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<v Speaker 1>personal robot fifteen years from now, those are AI devices,

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<v Speaker 1>and those would essentially be the first from Apple.

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<v Speaker 3>Bottom line, though it may never happen. Ten seconds.

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<v Speaker 1>Bottom line, it may never happen, but it's interesting that

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<v Speaker 1>they're looking at it. And I will say I do

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<v Speaker 1>think maybe the personal robot may not happen, but there

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<v Speaker 1>will be an Apple robotic based device happen in the

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<v Speaker 1>next five to ten.

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<v Speaker 6>Years for sure.

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<v Speaker 3>Right, well, cool stuff as always, Bloomberg News Chief technology

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<v Speaker 3>correspondent Markerman on his exclusive you can read more. Just

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<v Speaker 3>head to the Bloomberg terminal or a Bloomberg dot com.

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<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 5>All right, ti, So when you think of Nvidia and Microsoft,

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<v Speaker 5>definitely the poster childs when it comes to the AI frenzy,

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<v Speaker 5>But as you know, there are many others that have

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<v Speaker 5>been trying to scale AI for well over a decade,

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<v Speaker 5>so it might surprise you. Maybe not, but wireless carriers

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<v Speaker 5>like Verizon, so the excitement over AI is happening at

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<v Speaker 5>the same time as the rise of five G. So

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<v Speaker 5>while this may surprise people, Verizons AI engines actually in

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<v Speaker 5>just more than seventy billion data points off the network

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<v Speaker 5>every single day, and that kind of massive volume does

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<v Speaker 5>provide a big opportunity empowering AI models, but it also

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<v Speaker 5>comes with a host of challenges. So joining us. Now

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<v Speaker 5>in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio is Craig Silliman, president

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<v Speaker 5>of Verizon Global Services, to chat with us on how

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<v Speaker 5>the company is using AI, automation and robotics to tackle

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<v Speaker 5>labor challenges. Thanks so much for joining us. It's great

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<v Speaker 5>to have you here.

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<v Speaker 7>How are you?

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<v Speaker 6>Thanks, Jeess, great to be here, and Tim appreciate you

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<v Speaker 6>inviting me.

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<v Speaker 5>We'll walk us through this when it comes to Verizon

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<v Speaker 5>and sort of the parallels when it comes to what

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<v Speaker 5>your company has been doing over the past decade in

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<v Speaker 5>relation to AI and also five G and what this

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<v Speaker 5>means really moving forward.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 6>Absolutely, we As you mentioned, everyone right now is talking

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<v Speaker 6>about generality of AI, right that's the thing hitting the headlines.

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<v Speaker 6>But AI has been around for a long time, and

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<v Speaker 6>we've been working with AI now for more than a decade.

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<v Speaker 6>We have more than three dozen AI use cases in

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<v Speaker 6>production in our customer service centers, in our stores, in

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<v Speaker 6>our supply chain. So we've been working on this for

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<v Speaker 6>a while. We continue to refine, we continue to improve it.

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<v Speaker 4>So as a customer of Verizon, whether it's I'm a

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<v Speaker 4>FiOS customer, whether I use Rising for business, whether I

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<v Speaker 4>use Arising, wireless. How am I seeing the manifestation of

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<v Speaker 4>these investments in AI.

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<v Speaker 6>First, thank you. I hope you are customer tim so

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<v Speaker 6>thank you for that.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, yes, yes, thank you.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, keep it looking to win you over. You know

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<v Speaker 6>you're going to see it in a number of ways

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<v Speaker 6>where you may it may be transparent to you. In fact,

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<v Speaker 6>if we do our job well, it will be transparent

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<v Speaker 6>to you. What we're trying to do constantly is use

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<v Speaker 6>AI to take work away from our employees that's more

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<v Speaker 6>tedious or that's not high value add for you, the customer,

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<v Speaker 6>so that they can focus on you. So we want

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<v Speaker 6>our employees doing the things that humans do best and

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<v Speaker 6>let the AI do things that they do best. Would

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<v Speaker 6>it be customer service at this point? Is a chat?

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<v Speaker 5>Absolutely?

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<v Speaker 6>So if you call it into our customer service reps today.

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<v Speaker 6>In the background, we're going to have a number of

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<v Speaker 6>AI use cases going on. First of all, we have

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<v Speaker 6>intelligent call routing so that we know what you're calling

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<v Speaker 6>in about and we can match you with an agent

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<v Speaker 6>with the skill sets best match to serve your needs. Secondly,

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<v Speaker 6>as you're talking to the agent, the AI is serving

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<v Speaker 6>up in real time information for the agent about what

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<v Speaker 6>they need to answer your So.

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<v Speaker 4>The AI is listening to my voice and sort of

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<v Speaker 4>perhaps coming up with answers to questions that people who've

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<v Speaker 4>spoken things similarly to whe I'm speaking have asked about.

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<v Speaker 6>That's exactly right. And if you think about the number

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<v Speaker 6>of permutations, the number of devices we sell, the number

0:11:13.160 --> 0:11:15.880
<v Speaker 6>of plans we have, there are hundreds of pages of

0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:19.480
<v Speaker 6>material available to our customer service agents to answer your questions.

0:11:19.840 --> 0:11:21.920
<v Speaker 6>We don't want them going through that while they're trying

0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:23.840
<v Speaker 6>to listen to you, So the AI will get clear

0:11:24.320 --> 0:11:26.199
<v Speaker 6>and synthesize it for the agent so they can get

0:11:26.280 --> 0:11:29.280
<v Speaker 6>very quickly to exactly the answer that you need. So

0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:31.800
<v Speaker 6>what you're going to see as a customer is quicker

0:11:31.880 --> 0:11:35.040
<v Speaker 6>time of response and more relevant answers to your questions.

0:11:35.360 --> 0:11:38.719
<v Speaker 5>So does this basically sidestep even if you have some

0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:41.199
<v Speaker 5>maybe simple questions where you don't end up having to

0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:43.439
<v Speaker 5>talk to a customer service rep and you can just

0:11:43.640 --> 0:11:45.480
<v Speaker 5>use the AI to get the answers that you want.

0:11:45.600 --> 0:11:48.920
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, great question, justin And as we continue evolve the models,

0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:51.640
<v Speaker 6>what we want to get to is that you can

0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:54.839
<v Speaker 6>interact directly with We all have chatbots today, but we

0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:56.920
<v Speaker 6>want to make those chatbots far more robust, so they

0:11:57.040 --> 0:12:01.080
<v Speaker 6>give you a more relevant, relevant answer. Of course, once

0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:04.520
<v Speaker 6>you're interacting directly with an AI as a customer, we

0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:06.959
<v Speaker 6>have to make sure we get that right. We take

0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:10.079
<v Speaker 6>very seriously our responsibility to our customers. We all know

0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:13.480
<v Speaker 6>the stories about AIS that have gone rogue, and so

0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:15.679
<v Speaker 6>we do a lot of testing to make sure that

0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:18.560
<v Speaker 6>we get that right before you're interacting directly with an AI.

0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:22.440
<v Speaker 4>We've talked to Earn Mark German a lot about he's

0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:24.760
<v Speaker 4>chief technology correspondent here writes a lot about Apple breaks

0:12:24.800 --> 0:12:27.160
<v Speaker 4>pretty much every big story about Apple about how a

0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:29.679
<v Speaker 4>company like Apple is going to start using AI and

0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:32.240
<v Speaker 4>handsets over I mean, look for asen wireler's a huge

0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.120
<v Speaker 4>part of your business. How are you thinking about the

0:12:34.200 --> 0:12:36.240
<v Speaker 4>hardware side of this, the side that you don't control,

0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:38.839
<v Speaker 4>and what that means for your network when there is

0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:41.560
<v Speaker 4>AI in our handsets used in real time.

0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:45.760
<v Speaker 6>Obviously, all of the device manufacturers are big partners of ours,

0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:48.319
<v Speaker 6>so we're in constant conversation with what they have coming out.

0:12:48.640 --> 0:12:50.920
<v Speaker 6>But more from our perspectives we think about the network.

0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:53.679
<v Speaker 6>There are a couple aspects of AI. First, just mentioned

0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:56.719
<v Speaker 6>this stat we're ingesting seventy billion data points off the

0:12:56.800 --> 0:12:59.800
<v Speaker 6>network every single day, and running those through analytics engines

0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:03.960
<v Speaker 6>that we can not only do kind of descriptive analytics

0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:08.360
<v Speaker 6>what's happened and diagnostic analytics of why did it happen,

0:13:08.480 --> 0:13:12.880
<v Speaker 6>but predictive and prescriptive analytics what's going to happen next?

0:13:12.920 --> 0:13:14.439
<v Speaker 6>Where do we see the growth of the network. Where

0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:16.280
<v Speaker 6>do we need the engineers getting ahead of the builds.

0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:19.839
<v Speaker 6>We're using AI to make sure the network stays ahead

0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:22.440
<v Speaker 6>of the usage, but we're also looking at use cases

0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:25.080
<v Speaker 6>as all of us, as consumers use more and more AI,

0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:28.160
<v Speaker 6>we expect that to drive further usage of the network.

0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:31.040
<v Speaker 5>Can you expand more about specifically the data points? When

0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:33.760
<v Speaker 5>you're talking about seventy billion, where are you getting that data?

0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:37.960
<v Speaker 6>So every time you're walking around, driving around the streets,

0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:41.319
<v Speaker 6>your device is constantly communicating with the network and what

0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:43.520
<v Speaker 6>we're looking at there on an aggregated basis. It's not

0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:48.280
<v Speaker 6>personal to you on it, but an aggregated basis.

0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:50.000
<v Speaker 4>Where we spend a lot of time at the office,

0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:52.880
<v Speaker 4>you work way too much.

0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:58.120
<v Speaker 6>We're device. This is on an aggregated and anonymized basis.

0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:01.720
<v Speaker 6>But the data session, how are you communicating with the tower.

0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:04.199
<v Speaker 6>Are we seeing congestion? Are you seeing certain parts of

0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:06.800
<v Speaker 6>the times of the day that certain cell sites are

0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:08.959
<v Speaker 6>getting more congested so that our engineers can get out

0:14:08.960 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 6>ahead of that and build out capacity things like that.

0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:15.920
<v Speaker 6>Are we seeing certain usage patterns that are driving changes

0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:17.439
<v Speaker 6>in the network And we've seen that over the last

0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:21.280
<v Speaker 6>couple of years changing usage patterns as through COVID drove

0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:23.640
<v Speaker 6>a lot of that shifts from urban environments to more

0:14:23.720 --> 0:14:26.360
<v Speaker 6>rural and that helps us get ahead of the build At.

0:14:26.280 --> 0:14:27.920
<v Speaker 4>The end of the day, Does any of this matter

0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:31.360
<v Speaker 4>for customers serve customer acquisition for getting more people to

0:14:31.440 --> 0:14:32.600
<v Speaker 4>sign up for Verizon.

0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:37.160
<v Speaker 6>Service, Absolutely, because customers are looking for reliability in their connection.

0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:39.360
<v Speaker 6>We all live our lives on these devices, we run

0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:42.000
<v Speaker 6>our businesses on these devices, so we're all looking to

0:14:42.080 --> 0:14:45.280
<v Speaker 6>say how reliable is this? So our ability to get

0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:47.280
<v Speaker 6>ahead of the bill to make sure we're meeting customer

0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:51.360
<v Speaker 6>needs before you ever know that need is there will

0:14:51.400 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 6>absolutely lead to customer acquisition.

0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:55.920
<v Speaker 5>What's the top question you get from customers related to

0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:56.480
<v Speaker 5>this right now?

0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.520
<v Speaker 6>The top question is probably can you do away with

0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:01.280
<v Speaker 6>customers service agents altogether and.

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:03.440
<v Speaker 4>Just go to AI really get that they don't want

0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:04.160
<v Speaker 4>to put it to people.

0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:07.120
<v Speaker 6>Well, actually it's a great question to but actually know

0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:09.720
<v Speaker 6>they ask that more in a worried way. They're worried

0:15:09.800 --> 0:15:12.600
<v Speaker 6>that we're going to move completely to AI, right, And

0:15:12.720 --> 0:15:14.760
<v Speaker 6>so what we're saying is we really don't see that.

0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:19.040
<v Speaker 6>We see AI as an assist to our employees, not

0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:21.880
<v Speaker 6>a replacement. It makes them more effective. It lets them

0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 6>focus on the most rich human parts of their job.

0:15:24.840 --> 0:15:27.200
<v Speaker 6>And we think that'll be good for customers, because customers

0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:30.480
<v Speaker 6>want someone with empathy who's listening to them, but who's

0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:32.200
<v Speaker 6>assisted by all this great new technology.

0:15:32.280 --> 0:15:34.080
<v Speaker 4>I do not want the humans to be gotten rid

0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:36.560
<v Speaker 4>of I promise you that, Craig Silliman, President of Rising

0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:41.080
<v Speaker 4>Global Services. Here in our Bloomberg Interactive at Brokers Studios.

0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:46.560
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live

0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:49.520
<v Speaker 2>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.560
<v Speaker 2>Play and Androyd Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:55.840
<v Speaker 2>can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

0:15:55.960 --> 0:16:01.200
<v Speaker 2>New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty Well.

0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:03.800
<v Speaker 4>Dave Calhoun took over in January of twenty twenty for

0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:07.960
<v Speaker 4>ousted Boeing CEO Dennis Muhlenberg, who downplayed design defects that

0:16:08.080 --> 0:16:10.760
<v Speaker 4>killed three hundred and forty six people when the maxis

0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:14.480
<v Speaker 4>flowed software crashed two planes. Yet four years later, Calhoun

0:16:14.640 --> 0:16:16.600
<v Speaker 4>is out. In addition to losing more than twenty three

0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:19.520
<v Speaker 4>billion dollars during his four years as CEO, Boeing lost

0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:22.280
<v Speaker 4>the trust of flyers, the patients of airline customers, and

0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:25.400
<v Speaker 4>the indulgence of regulators. As our next guest writes, now

0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:28.160
<v Speaker 4>that Calhoun is leaving by year's end, Boeing has also

0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:30.920
<v Speaker 4>lost the fiction that Calhoun was ever the right leader

0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:33.920
<v Speaker 4>to fix the company, and over the long run, that

0:16:34.080 --> 0:16:37.280
<v Speaker 4>could be a good thing. Peter Robinson is Projects and

0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:40.160
<v Speaker 4>investigations reporter for Bloomberg News. He's also the author of

0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:43.080
<v Speaker 4>the New York Times Business bestseller Flying Blind, The seven

0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:45.920
<v Speaker 4>thirty seven max Tragedy and the Fall of Boeing. Peter

0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:48.760
<v Speaker 4>joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's Studio. His story,

0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:50.800
<v Speaker 4>by the Way, co written with Julie Johnson, and it's

0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:53.400
<v Speaker 4>featured in the new issue of BusinessWeek magazine, available now

0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:56.680
<v Speaker 4>on newsstands, on the Bloomberg Terminal and at bloomberg dot

0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:59.560
<v Speaker 4>Com slash business Withek Peter. Good to see you here

0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:02.280
<v Speaker 4>in New York. Usually you're out in Seattle, So awesome

0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:04.760
<v Speaker 4>to have you here. This piece not just a great

0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:07.080
<v Speaker 4>overview of Calhoun's failed time at Boeing, but also a

0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:10.359
<v Speaker 4>history of really where the problems at Boeing began. But

0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:13.480
<v Speaker 4>what I want to talk about is that key decision

0:17:13.520 --> 0:17:17.760
<v Speaker 4>back in twenty eleven when the company decided that instead

0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:20.919
<v Speaker 4>of building a brand new airplane, what they were going

0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:23.920
<v Speaker 4>to do is re engineer A seven thirty seven for

0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:24.640
<v Speaker 4>the fourth time.

0:17:25.840 --> 0:17:29.280
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, it is a really key moment, and it's what

0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:32.359
<v Speaker 8>set off what we're seeing now, which seems like a

0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:38.080
<v Speaker 8>recent implosion. And Boeing really had this same choice even

0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:41.320
<v Speaker 8>back in the nineteen nineties. At that time, Airbus had

0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:44.240
<v Speaker 8>stolen a big order. And one of the things I

0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:46.760
<v Speaker 8>write about in my book was a meeting that Boeing held,

0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:49.920
<v Speaker 8>and it was a meeting at that time to say,

0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:52.560
<v Speaker 8>should we, you know, should we match the A three twenty.

0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:56.040
<v Speaker 8>The E three twenty has some advancements in the cockpit

0:17:56.240 --> 0:18:02.840
<v Speaker 8>that provide more more integrated electronic features to the pilots,

0:18:02.920 --> 0:18:05.880
<v Speaker 8>and the cabin is wider, and Boeing said at the time,

0:18:06.200 --> 0:18:09.920
<v Speaker 8>you know, I talked to one former executive Boeing, Gordon Bethune,

0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:13.400
<v Speaker 8>who also ran Continental, and he recalled that he thought

0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:16.520
<v Speaker 8>to himself, you know, maybe, you know, maybe we should

0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 8>get a jump on Airbus here and get ahead of this.

0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:21.520
<v Speaker 8>And he was leaning toward voting for an all new plane,

0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:23.640
<v Speaker 8>but he knew that the manager of the seven thirty

0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:26.480
<v Speaker 8>seven factory didn't want that. It's hard to update a factory.

0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:30.040
<v Speaker 8>There's all these sunk costs and tooling, so he voted for,

0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:32.040
<v Speaker 8>you know, doing an update at that time, and the

0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:35.600
<v Speaker 8>vote was five to three. Boeing did an updated seven

0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:38.639
<v Speaker 8>thirty seven, and then again, as you said, in twenty eleven,

0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:42.760
<v Speaker 8>Americans stole this big order and Boeing faced the same choice.

0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:46.640
<v Speaker 8>It had just come out of a very expensive development

0:18:46.720 --> 0:18:50.159
<v Speaker 8>project on the seven eighty seven and didn't have much

0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:53.360
<v Speaker 8>appetite for an all new plane, and so it went

0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:56.679
<v Speaker 8>with the updated seven thirty seven, which has not proved

0:18:57.000 --> 0:19:00.280
<v Speaker 8>of sales success, you know, and that's an understatement against

0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:01.320
<v Speaker 8>the airbus plane.

0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:04.479
<v Speaker 5>Walk us through that key decision back in twenty eleven

0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:07.919
<v Speaker 5>and how we got to where we are now, there.

0:19:07.840 --> 0:19:12.680
<v Speaker 8>Were meetings held in the summer in Dallas secretly with

0:19:13.480 --> 0:19:17.719
<v Speaker 8>Airbus execs and American Airlines execs, and they met at

0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:20.399
<v Speaker 8>a hideaway hotel in Dallas where they didn't think that

0:19:20.520 --> 0:19:24.679
<v Speaker 8>Boeing's on site sales rep would see them, and they

0:19:24.960 --> 0:19:28.639
<v Speaker 8>successfully negotiated a big deal for a three twenties and

0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:31.680
<v Speaker 8>that was a huge coup for Airbus because it was

0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:34.719
<v Speaker 8>a takeaway for Airbus. They didn't at that time American

0:19:34.720 --> 0:19:39.800
<v Speaker 8>Airlines didn't have a three twenties. Boeing was surprised, I

0:19:40.320 --> 0:19:43.200
<v Speaker 8>you know understand that, you know, the head of Boeing

0:19:43.200 --> 0:19:47.200
<v Speaker 8>Commercial Airplanes was upset that his on site sales team

0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:50.120
<v Speaker 8>didn't warn him about this, and Boeing had publicly said

0:19:50.160 --> 0:19:52.520
<v Speaker 8>it didn't. You know, there was no pressure to do

0:19:52.600 --> 0:19:55.639
<v Speaker 8>an all new plane. It could get to that. So

0:19:55.840 --> 0:19:59.920
<v Speaker 8>Boeing reacted by making a short term decision which allowed

0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:03.360
<v Speaker 8>to hold onto market share. And in the long run,

0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:06.439
<v Speaker 8>as we're seeing it's it's cost Boeing quite substantially.

0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:09.399
<v Speaker 4>So we get here to twenty twenty four. By the

0:20:09.480 --> 0:20:11.600
<v Speaker 4>end of the year, Calhoun will be out or perhaps

0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:15.160
<v Speaker 4>sooner if they do come to an agreement. I guess

0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:19.080
<v Speaker 4>the board has to decide on a new CEO to

0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:22.720
<v Speaker 4>what extent is a new plane that would compete with

0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:25.960
<v Speaker 4>the Airbus A three twenty in Boeing's future, something that's

0:20:26.160 --> 0:20:28.560
<v Speaker 4>that's completely a brand new plane.

0:20:29.320 --> 0:20:31.240
<v Speaker 8>But Boeing had at one time, even late in Dennis

0:20:31.280 --> 0:20:36.640
<v Speaker 8>Muhlenberg's tenure, Boeing had a plane called the new middle

0:20:36.680 --> 0:20:39.119
<v Speaker 8>market airplane on its drawing board. It would go right

0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:42.200
<v Speaker 8>after this center of the market, the bread and butter

0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:46.080
<v Speaker 8>roots that a lot of us fly on. And it,

0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:48.840
<v Speaker 8>you know, with the max crisis of the two crashes,

0:20:48.880 --> 0:20:54.879
<v Speaker 8>pulled away from that. So really the debate now is

0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:59.760
<v Speaker 8>between you know, continuing the same strategy, which is cut

0:21:00.320 --> 0:21:04.120
<v Speaker 8>eventually return cash to shareholders, or invest in new products.

0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:09.000
<v Speaker 8>Boeing has really slowed its pace in product investment. So

0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:11.040
<v Speaker 8>a number of analysts, one of them is Bank of

0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:14.399
<v Speaker 8>America's Ron Epstein, says that it would be costly, but

0:21:14.520 --> 0:21:17.560
<v Speaker 8>in the long run it would be beneficial for customers

0:21:17.800 --> 0:21:24.240
<v Speaker 8>beneficial twenty dollars or more, and and but investors would

0:21:24.240 --> 0:21:25.960
<v Speaker 8>hate it. But over the long run they're they're going

0:21:26.000 --> 0:21:29.040
<v Speaker 8>to hate even more. Boeing steadily losing market shared air bus.

0:21:29.560 --> 0:21:31.440
<v Speaker 5>How does Boeing fix this.

0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:35.359
<v Speaker 8>The people that I've talked to say it really starts

0:21:35.560 --> 0:21:40.000
<v Speaker 8>with fixing the culture to be more about collaboration. There's

0:21:40.000 --> 0:21:44.080
<v Speaker 8>a real tension at Boeing between speed and efficiency, which

0:21:44.119 --> 0:21:47.399
<v Speaker 8>has been a focus of their managers, who often come

0:21:47.440 --> 0:21:50.680
<v Speaker 8>from the ge school of management and safety and doing

0:21:50.760 --> 0:21:54.440
<v Speaker 8>things right. And many people have talked to say that

0:21:54.520 --> 0:21:57.920
<v Speaker 8>Boeing in the old days had multiple layers, they had

0:21:58.080 --> 0:22:03.280
<v Speaker 8>multiple checkofs. Their were coordination that added costs, but there

0:22:03.359 --> 0:22:05.879
<v Speaker 8>was a recognition that over the long run that would

0:22:06.119 --> 0:22:08.399
<v Speaker 8>save money because it will be done right and you

0:22:08.440 --> 0:22:11.600
<v Speaker 8>wouldn't have to go back into the airplane and fix

0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:12.080
<v Speaker 8>things later.

0:22:12.400 --> 0:22:14.600
<v Speaker 4>Well, one of those executives from the Jack Welch school

0:22:15.080 --> 0:22:19.800
<v Speaker 4>is of course Calhoun, Dave Calhoun. And one thing that

0:22:19.920 --> 0:22:22.440
<v Speaker 4>was interesting to me and big takeaway from your piece

0:22:22.480 --> 0:22:25.800
<v Speaker 4>that's in the new issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, is the

0:22:25.880 --> 0:22:28.600
<v Speaker 4>difference in the way that he talked about regulators publicly

0:22:29.520 --> 0:22:31.920
<v Speaker 4>and especially in recent months, versus what he did behind

0:22:31.960 --> 0:22:34.119
<v Speaker 4>the scenes. Can you talk a little bit about what

0:22:34.280 --> 0:22:36.760
<v Speaker 4>you've learned about Dave Calhoun over the last four years

0:22:36.800 --> 0:22:39.400
<v Speaker 4>and the way his management style was portrayed.

0:22:40.119 --> 0:22:43.280
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I thought That was interesting to read as I

0:22:43.359 --> 0:22:45.880
<v Speaker 8>was looking at the history of his statements on regulation

0:22:46.119 --> 0:22:48.680
<v Speaker 8>versus what he said immediately after the crash. Immediately after

0:22:48.720 --> 0:22:52.960
<v Speaker 8>the crash, he spoke to employees and encourage them to

0:22:53.800 --> 0:22:56.160
<v Speaker 8>be very open with regulators. He said, I trust every

0:22:56.200 --> 0:22:56.920
<v Speaker 8>step they'll take.

0:22:57.320 --> 0:23:01.960
<v Speaker 4>Is this the January This is after the Yeah Max crash.

0:23:02.320 --> 0:23:05.720
<v Speaker 8>He was on the board for the crashes, so this

0:23:05.840 --> 0:23:08.560
<v Speaker 8>was after the panel. This was soon after the panel

0:23:08.600 --> 0:23:11.920
<v Speaker 8>blow out in January at the seven thirty seven factory,

0:23:12.440 --> 0:23:18.640
<v Speaker 8>and he pledged openness and trust of regulators. But over

0:23:18.680 --> 0:23:21.879
<v Speaker 8>the years in his career he had said something very different.

0:23:22.040 --> 0:23:24.840
<v Speaker 8>He gave an interview that I mentioned in the story

0:23:24.960 --> 0:23:28.360
<v Speaker 8>with Maria Bartiromo and Fox Business in twenty sixteen where

0:23:28.400 --> 0:23:31.520
<v Speaker 8>he said of it was a conversation about government regulation

0:23:31.640 --> 0:23:34.639
<v Speaker 8>and taxes with the theme that it was hammering business,

0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:38.760
<v Speaker 8>and he said it's just not helpful. I view governance

0:23:38.800 --> 0:23:42.399
<v Speaker 8>in general is just slowing everything down. And there was

0:23:42.440 --> 0:23:47.159
<v Speaker 8>also a meeting in November twenty twenty two and he

0:23:47.480 --> 0:23:51.800
<v Speaker 8>talked about, you know, just the fact that and he

0:23:51.960 --> 0:23:54.280
<v Speaker 8>was recognizing that Boeing was in a different moment and

0:23:54.440 --> 0:23:57.760
<v Speaker 8>needed to be open with regulators. And he said, you know,

0:23:58.200 --> 0:24:00.840
<v Speaker 8>let them, let them do all the discovery they need,

0:24:00.960 --> 0:24:03.920
<v Speaker 8>no matter how inefficient you think it is. So it

0:24:04.040 --> 0:24:07.720
<v Speaker 8>felt like he was revealing a bit of his thinking there.

0:24:08.359 --> 0:24:11.960
<v Speaker 5>When you think of the two biggest companies when it

0:24:12.000 --> 0:24:14.440
<v Speaker 5>comes to aerospace, obviously you have Boeing, but then you

0:24:14.520 --> 0:24:17.320
<v Speaker 5>have Airbus. Where's Airbus at this point as a competitor

0:24:17.400 --> 0:24:18.320
<v Speaker 5>When you have the top.

0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:22.280
<v Speaker 8>Two there, Airbus has become what Boeing was when I

0:24:22.480 --> 0:24:26.280
<v Speaker 8>first started covering aerospace in the late nineteen nineties. Airbus

0:24:27.000 --> 0:24:31.800
<v Speaker 8>has sixty percent plus of the commercial market. It is

0:24:32.840 --> 0:24:36.399
<v Speaker 8>in narrow bodies. As we talked about, you know, just

0:24:36.920 --> 0:24:41.160
<v Speaker 8>really you know, putting Boeing behind. I've you know, one

0:24:41.359 --> 0:24:45.960
<v Speaker 8>analyst I've talked to you said that in a natural market,

0:24:46.080 --> 0:24:48.920
<v Speaker 8>if Airbus wasn't constrained by delivery slots, the market share

0:24:49.000 --> 0:24:51.680
<v Speaker 8>might be seventy five twenty five Airbus the A three

0:24:51.760 --> 0:24:54.240
<v Speaker 8>twenties is just the preferred narrowbody at this point.

0:24:55.520 --> 0:24:58.000
<v Speaker 4>How damaging we have thirty seconds left? How damaging is

0:24:58.040 --> 0:25:01.000
<v Speaker 4>this whole debacle to its customer which I remind everyone

0:25:01.080 --> 0:25:02.159
<v Speaker 4>are the airlines not us.

0:25:03.359 --> 0:25:05.520
<v Speaker 8>The customers are suffering because they can't put on the

0:25:05.560 --> 0:25:08.280
<v Speaker 8>extra flights they were looking for, so it's causing them.

0:25:08.440 --> 0:25:09.800
<v Speaker 4>Is having to do It's pretty wild.

0:25:10.119 --> 0:25:13.000
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, it's I mean, traffic is back, but the airplanes

0:25:13.040 --> 0:25:13.240
<v Speaker 8>are not.

0:25:14.240 --> 0:25:18.440
<v Speaker 4>Hey, Peter, A great piece co written with Julie Johnson,

0:25:18.720 --> 0:25:22.120
<v Speaker 4>who covers aerospace and airlines as well, and Boeing too.

0:25:22.920 --> 0:25:26.120
<v Speaker 4>It's in the new issue of BusinessWeek magazine. It's available

0:25:26.160 --> 0:25:28.880
<v Speaker 4>on newstands on the Bloomberg Terminal a at Bloomberg dot

0:25:29.000 --> 0:25:33.320
<v Speaker 4>com slash BusinessWeek. Peter Robinson is Projects and investigations reporter

0:25:33.400 --> 0:25:35.639
<v Speaker 4>for Bloomberg News. He's also the author of the New

0:25:35.720 --> 0:25:38.960
<v Speaker 4>York Times Business bestseller Flying Blind be seven thirty seven,

0:25:39.040 --> 0:25:41.840
<v Speaker 4>Max Tragedy and The Fall of Boeing.

0:25:43.560 --> 0:25:45.639
<v Speaker 8>M Marco.

0:25:47.040 --> 0:25:47.680
<v Speaker 7>A journal.

0:25:48.760 --> 0:25:49.760
<v Speaker 3>Now about you, let me drive?

0:25:50.000 --> 0:25:55.320
<v Speaker 5>Oh no, no, no, no, honey, please, I'll gravel.

0:25:56.520 --> 0:25:57.280
<v Speaker 3>I want to drive.

0:26:00.119 --> 0:26:07.040
<v Speaker 2>Life's champ time. This is the drive to the clothes trim.

0:26:07.320 --> 0:26:10.639
<v Speaker 2>Think we'll drive out. Shout it on on Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:12.080 --> 0:26:15.200
<v Speaker 5>All right, Jessminton and Tim Stenovic heir the Bloomberg Interactive

0:26:15.240 --> 0:26:18.080
<v Speaker 5>Broker Studio. With just under twenty minutes left to go

0:26:18.320 --> 0:26:21.040
<v Speaker 5>before the closing bell. If you do quick check here

0:26:21.080 --> 0:26:23.440
<v Speaker 5>on the s and P five hundred and the NASAC

0:26:23.480 --> 0:26:26.000
<v Speaker 5>one hundred both down over one percent, So that would

0:26:26.040 --> 0:26:28.199
<v Speaker 5>be the first time the S and P five hundred

0:26:28.359 --> 0:26:31.520
<v Speaker 5>would see a decline of that magnitude tim in about

0:26:31.560 --> 0:26:33.240
<v Speaker 5>a month. But I have to also point out just

0:26:33.400 --> 0:26:36.200
<v Speaker 5>down about two percent from its all time high. But

0:26:36.280 --> 0:26:38.520
<v Speaker 5>who better to check in with the latest on the

0:26:38.560 --> 0:26:41.880
<v Speaker 5>market movements here heading into the closing bell than Garghee Chowdery,

0:26:42.040 --> 0:26:45.400
<v Speaker 5>chief investment in portfolio strategist for America's at black Rock,

0:26:45.440 --> 0:26:48.600
<v Speaker 5>who's joining us on zoom in New York City. Thanks

0:26:48.640 --> 0:26:51.320
<v Speaker 5>so much for joining us ahead of the closing bell here,

0:26:51.480 --> 0:26:54.040
<v Speaker 5>break down what you think is sort of turning here

0:26:54.119 --> 0:26:56.040
<v Speaker 5>in the last hour of trade and why we're seeing

0:26:56.320 --> 0:26:58.760
<v Speaker 5>stocks give up their early gains from this morning.

0:27:00.080 --> 0:27:02.200
<v Speaker 7>Had that good afternoon, Tim and Jess, I think a

0:27:02.240 --> 0:27:05.040
<v Speaker 7>couple of things that's booking investors out just a little bit.

0:27:05.520 --> 0:27:08.240
<v Speaker 7>Number one, I think there was some hawkish comments out

0:27:08.280 --> 0:27:11.600
<v Speaker 7>from a couple of Fed speakers, just this idea that

0:27:11.760 --> 0:27:14.200
<v Speaker 7>the Fed may not need to go at all this year.

0:27:14.240 --> 0:27:16.560
<v Speaker 7>I think that's certainly something just based on the timing

0:27:16.640 --> 0:27:19.200
<v Speaker 7>of when the market turned. Number one. Number two in

0:27:19.280 --> 0:27:21.920
<v Speaker 7>this I think is more important is the price action

0:27:22.040 --> 0:27:25.960
<v Speaker 7>and oil prices obviously Brent crude make it going back

0:27:26.760 --> 0:27:31.639
<v Speaker 7>significantly moving significantly higher today. That is something that is

0:27:31.720 --> 0:27:34.760
<v Speaker 7>adding a quote unquote fuel because there was already this

0:27:34.920 --> 0:27:37.720
<v Speaker 7>concern around sticky inflation, and now, of course, if you

0:27:37.880 --> 0:27:41.479
<v Speaker 7>do have oil prices continuing to turn meaningfully higher, if

0:27:41.560 --> 0:27:45.560
<v Speaker 7>Middle East tensions continue to, you know, get even worse.

0:27:45.800 --> 0:27:49.440
<v Speaker 7>Investors are considering what that might mean for consumers, what

0:27:49.640 --> 0:27:51.560
<v Speaker 7>that might mean for interest rates, and of course, as

0:27:51.600 --> 0:27:53.680
<v Speaker 7>a result of those two, what that might mean for

0:27:54.280 --> 0:27:55.800
<v Speaker 7>investment returns in the stock market.

0:27:55.920 --> 0:27:57.880
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, argue when that happened during our two o'clock hour

0:27:57.920 --> 0:27:59.520
<v Speaker 4>on the program, we had Michael McKee on, and he

0:27:59.600 --> 0:28:01.760
<v Speaker 4>made the point that well, one the Fed can't do

0:28:01.960 --> 0:28:05.360
<v Speaker 4>much at if anything, about oil prices, and two they're

0:28:05.400 --> 0:28:07.480
<v Speaker 4>much more interested in the second order effects of the

0:28:07.520 --> 0:28:09.960
<v Speaker 4>way that they move, that a price increase in oil

0:28:10.040 --> 0:28:13.240
<v Speaker 4>and energy would actually move throughout the economy and mess

0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:16.760
<v Speaker 4>with their inflation goals of getting inflation down to two percent.

0:28:18.240 --> 0:28:22.040
<v Speaker 4>Is this move in energy in your opinion? Could this

0:28:22.160 --> 0:28:23.480
<v Speaker 4>be a sustained move higher?

0:28:25.440 --> 0:28:28.320
<v Speaker 7>I think that's the really important question, right, So if

0:28:28.400 --> 0:28:31.840
<v Speaker 7>this is a move that we experience and then we

0:28:32.040 --> 0:28:33.920
<v Speaker 7>sort of come back down to levels that we have

0:28:34.040 --> 0:28:36.160
<v Speaker 7>been in for the last quarter of twenty twenty three.

0:28:36.560 --> 0:28:39.120
<v Speaker 7>I think that's fine, and that's certainly something that both

0:28:39.160 --> 0:28:41.920
<v Speaker 7>the FED and the equity market will look through. But

0:28:42.080 --> 0:28:44.960
<v Speaker 7>if this is something more pernicious, if we are getting

0:28:45.040 --> 0:28:47.440
<v Speaker 7>back towards that or even if there's a fear of

0:28:47.560 --> 0:28:51.040
<v Speaker 7>getting back towards that one hundred dollars price oil level,

0:28:51.880 --> 0:28:54.680
<v Speaker 7>that can be problematic for a couple of reasons. Look,

0:28:54.800 --> 0:28:58.440
<v Speaker 7>of course, the FED looks at core PCE, we know that,

0:28:59.040 --> 0:29:03.440
<v Speaker 7>but higher prices can make their way into core inflation

0:29:03.760 --> 0:29:07.080
<v Speaker 7>as well, because, as we know, every type of good

0:29:07.160 --> 0:29:09.680
<v Speaker 7>that you purchase or service that you've experienced, such as

0:29:10.040 --> 0:29:14.160
<v Speaker 7>an airline ticket for example, has an embedded energy cost

0:29:14.200 --> 0:29:16.400
<v Speaker 7>associated with it. So that is something that we have

0:29:16.560 --> 0:29:20.040
<v Speaker 7>to consider. So the sustainability of this energy rally is important.

0:29:20.720 --> 0:29:24.080
<v Speaker 7>The second thing I think is pretty important is the

0:29:24.360 --> 0:29:28.640
<v Speaker 7>strength of the consumer. So so far growth expectations in

0:29:28.680 --> 0:29:32.800
<v Speaker 7>the US have been so immensely helpful for earnings growth

0:29:33.000 --> 0:29:37.240
<v Speaker 7>as well as, of course, for how consumer sentiment has

0:29:37.320 --> 0:29:41.200
<v Speaker 7>been and consumer sentiment is often driven by what consumers

0:29:41.240 --> 0:29:43.520
<v Speaker 7>are paying at the gas station. I think if that

0:29:43.760 --> 0:29:47.480
<v Speaker 7>is something that continues to move higher, I think sentiment

0:29:47.640 --> 0:29:51.320
<v Speaker 7>is going to be definitely driven, and how consumers feel

0:29:51.320 --> 0:29:53.520
<v Speaker 7>about spending going into the second half of the year,

0:29:53.760 --> 0:29:57.640
<v Speaker 7>especially if interest rates remain high, can be a concern.

0:29:57.840 --> 0:30:02.160
<v Speaker 7>Now I will say that our our base case isn't

0:30:02.240 --> 0:30:04.800
<v Speaker 7>for this to change the FED spot, but I think

0:30:04.840 --> 0:30:06.080
<v Speaker 7>the risk has just risen.

0:30:07.200 --> 0:30:09.360
<v Speaker 4>You know, it's so interesting that you talk about sentiment

0:30:09.440 --> 0:30:12.360
<v Speaker 4>because there's like it's so visceral going in pumping gas

0:30:12.480 --> 0:30:14.480
<v Speaker 4>and you know, you know how much you're paying single time.

0:30:14.560 --> 0:30:17.320
<v Speaker 4>So that's something that certainly the consumer pays attention to. Hey,

0:30:17.440 --> 0:30:19.160
<v Speaker 4>I just want to jump in with a redhead crossing

0:30:19.160 --> 0:30:23.600
<v Speaker 4>the Bloomberg terminal. Toma Bravo targeting a Toma Bravo targeting

0:30:23.920 --> 0:30:26.680
<v Speaker 4>to raise about twenty billion dollars for its next flagship

0:30:26.760 --> 0:30:29.360
<v Speaker 4>buyout fund. According to people with knowledge of the matter,

0:30:29.440 --> 0:30:32.840
<v Speaker 4>the Tech Focus firm discussing commitments to Toma Bravo fund

0:30:33.200 --> 0:30:36.240
<v Speaker 4>XV one LP with potential investors. That's according to the

0:30:36.280 --> 0:30:39.480
<v Speaker 4>people who ask not to be identified discussing confidential information.

0:30:39.840 --> 0:30:43.000
<v Speaker 5>Okay, Gargie, we're only about four trading days into the

0:30:43.080 --> 0:30:45.280
<v Speaker 5>new quarter, but what are you advising your clients to

0:30:45.400 --> 0:30:48.040
<v Speaker 5>buy and sell after we obviously saw a big rally

0:30:48.080 --> 0:30:49.800
<v Speaker 5>around ten percent in the S and P five hundred

0:30:49.800 --> 0:30:50.440
<v Speaker 5>in the first quarter.

0:30:51.920 --> 0:30:54.120
<v Speaker 7>Short thing, Jess, I think, you know, we just came

0:30:54.160 --> 0:30:57.160
<v Speaker 7>out with our Q two outlook earlier this month. The

0:30:57.320 --> 0:31:01.000
<v Speaker 7>focus there is for investors to focus on quality in

0:31:01.080 --> 0:31:04.200
<v Speaker 7>their equity portfolios. So what do I mean by quality?

0:31:04.760 --> 0:31:09.360
<v Speaker 7>We think that companies that have stable earnings growth, companies

0:31:09.400 --> 0:31:11.760
<v Speaker 7>that have a lot of free cash flow, and most

0:31:11.840 --> 0:31:15.320
<v Speaker 7>importantly have low financial leverage. What are those companies that

0:31:15.440 --> 0:31:17.680
<v Speaker 7>are going to Yeah, some of those well, some of

0:31:17.720 --> 0:31:20.480
<v Speaker 7>those companies are the big tech names that you hear,

0:31:20.920 --> 0:31:23.760
<v Speaker 7>some of them are in the healthcare sector, and some

0:31:23.880 --> 0:31:26.880
<v Speaker 7>of them are in the financial sector. It's really not

0:31:27.040 --> 0:31:29.920
<v Speaker 7>about the sector or the industry, but it's really very

0:31:30.600 --> 0:31:34.040
<v Speaker 7>very stock specific and focusing on you know, we think

0:31:34.120 --> 0:31:38.400
<v Speaker 7>investors can access that through a tech qual which has

0:31:38.520 --> 0:31:42.600
<v Speaker 7>some of those companies in it that have those earnings

0:31:42.640 --> 0:31:45.560
<v Speaker 7>growth that are screened for higher earnings growth and stable

0:31:47.400 --> 0:31:49.800
<v Speaker 7>and low financial leverage. So I think that's one way

0:31:49.880 --> 0:31:53.080
<v Speaker 7>that investors can focus on for the remainder of twenty

0:31:53.160 --> 0:31:56.080
<v Speaker 7>twenty four. I also think that in a world where

0:31:56.320 --> 0:32:00.479
<v Speaker 7>growth remains solid and inflation, though sticky, is still come

0:32:00.600 --> 0:32:04.040
<v Speaker 7>continuing to come down, and the FED most likely cuts

0:32:04.160 --> 0:32:07.280
<v Speaker 7>rates at least two times this year. In that world,

0:32:07.360 --> 0:32:10.480
<v Speaker 7>you want to be focused on earning income within your

0:32:10.520 --> 0:32:13.920
<v Speaker 7>fixed income portfolio. So again, keeping where you own duration

0:32:14.120 --> 0:32:17.200
<v Speaker 7>really matters, So keeping that interest rate sensitivity in that

0:32:17.440 --> 0:32:20.240
<v Speaker 7>five year or shorter part of the curve, but earning

0:32:20.400 --> 0:32:24.120
<v Speaker 7>income in higher quality parts of the fixed income market

0:32:24.680 --> 0:32:27.960
<v Speaker 7>also make a lot of sense. So I think, remain invested,

0:32:28.440 --> 0:32:32.640
<v Speaker 7>remain up in quality, clip some coupon, focus on sectors

0:32:32.760 --> 0:32:37.160
<v Speaker 7>like tech as well as you know, financials, if you

0:32:37.280 --> 0:32:40.840
<v Speaker 7>want to look away from that growth area of the

0:32:40.920 --> 0:32:42.720
<v Speaker 7>market and look at a little bit of the value

0:32:42.800 --> 0:32:45.320
<v Speaker 7>areas that we think can still do well, and then

0:32:45.360 --> 0:32:47.720
<v Speaker 7>clip some coupon in the fixed income markets. That's what

0:32:47.840 --> 0:32:49.479
<v Speaker 7>we're telling investors to do right now.

0:32:49.880 --> 0:32:52.040
<v Speaker 5>We only have about forty five seconds left. But you

0:32:52.120 --> 0:32:55.440
<v Speaker 5>mentioned financials, which does have not only big banks in regionals,

0:32:55.480 --> 0:32:58.600
<v Speaker 5>but you do have fintech companies and insurers. We're within financials, do.

0:32:58.640 --> 0:33:02.200
<v Speaker 7>You like, Yeah, So what we're telling investors to do

0:33:02.400 --> 0:33:05.800
<v Speaker 7>is actually stay again in the higher quality part of

0:33:05.920 --> 0:33:09.080
<v Speaker 7>the financials market. So the ticker that we're recommending investors

0:33:09.200 --> 0:33:12.120
<v Speaker 7>is IAI, but really focusing on those large banks and

0:33:12.280 --> 0:33:16.880
<v Speaker 7>brokers where we think the impact of capitol markets reopening,

0:33:17.040 --> 0:33:20.760
<v Speaker 7>the uh steepening of the yield cub all of that

0:33:21.000 --> 0:33:24.960
<v Speaker 7>will come into play. So focus on communications services and

0:33:25.080 --> 0:33:28.520
<v Speaker 7>quality and tech, but also bar well with financials, but

0:33:28.720 --> 0:33:29.480
<v Speaker 7>up in quality.

0:33:30.320 --> 0:33:31.680
<v Speaker 4>Gargy, We're gonna have to leave it there. Thank you

0:33:31.760 --> 0:33:34.880
<v Speaker 4>so much for joining us this afternoon. Gargi Chowdery, chief

0:33:34.920 --> 0:33:38.760
<v Speaker 4>investment and portfolio strategist America's at black Rock, joining us

0:33:38.920 --> 0:33:40.040
<v Speaker 4>from New York City.

0:33:40.640 --> 0:33:41.240
<v Speaker 5>This is the.

0:33:41.280 --> 0:33:46.240
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else

0:33:46.280 --> 0:33:50.160
<v Speaker 2>you get your podcast. Listen live weekday afternoons from two

0:33:50.240 --> 0:33:54.040
<v Speaker 2>to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app,

0:33:54.200 --> 0:33:56.720
<v Speaker 2>tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

0:33:56.840 --> 0:34:00.160
<v Speaker 2>watch us live every weekday on YouTube and oh is

0:34:00.200 --> 0:34:01.320
<v Speaker 2>on the Bloomberg terminal.

0:34:08.120 --> 0:34:08.520
<v Speaker 1>Mm hmm