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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's on target.

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Speaker 2: It good yo. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Throwing in job spect.

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Speaker 2: I'm saying it to cash.

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Speaker 1: To see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to Wind. That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I

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Speaker 1: like to make money. All right. This is the ultimate kabara.

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Speaker 2: And we are coming away.

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Speaker 1: What's up everybody? Welcome to the Action Network podcast. This

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Speaker 1: is the AFC waights Worthy Win Totals. Addition, I am

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Speaker 1: your host, Chris Raybon. We joined in a second, but

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Speaker 1: my dude's stucky. But I just want to let you

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Speaker 1: know real quick, we need to do a shout out

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Speaker 1: to Actions Happy Hour in Vegas. Uh to any listeners

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Speaker 1: out in Las Vegas next week for the NFL Draft,

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Speaker 1: Action Network is hosting a pre draft happy Hour at

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Speaker 1: Circus Stadium Swim in downtown Vegas next Wednesday, April twenty seventh.

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Speaker 1: We've got an open bar, surprise guests, and betting tips

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Speaker 1: from some of your favorite action pros. Darren Ravel will

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Speaker 1: be there, so it should be a really good time.

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Speaker 1: The event twenty one plus totally free, but it does

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Speaker 1: require an RSVP, so if you're in Vegas next week,

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Speaker 1: just check out the link in this episode description to

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Speaker 1: rsv P Stucky, what's going on?

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Speaker 2: Man? So brother excited to continue talking NFL in the offseason.

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Speaker 2: If you haven't checked out our NFC pre view already,

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Speaker 2: that's out there. We just recorded that. Now we can

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Speaker 2: talk to the AFC, which is loaded. So I'm excited

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Speaker 2: to talk about the arms race and.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, this is like it's all about. This reminds

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Speaker 1: me of I don't know how closely you follow NBA,

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Speaker 1: but remember back in the day when the West was

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Speaker 1: always just so much better than the East for like

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Speaker 1: so long. It was just like Lebron and that was

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Speaker 1: it in the East. And it kind of reminds me

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Speaker 1: that now with like a disparity between the conferences because

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Speaker 1: you know, you had players don't like, you know, DeVante Adams,

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Speaker 1: that that that really swings. I think, you know things

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Speaker 1: in favor of the a f C, Russell Wilson, you know,

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Speaker 1: big names, team change positions that really affect, you know,

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Speaker 1: your final point differential, just kind of changing changing conferences if.

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Speaker 2: You look, if you look at if you listen to

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Speaker 2: our previous podcasts in the NFC. Because I'm not I

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Speaker 2: don't think I'm gonna. I won't recommend any long shots

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Speaker 2: in the FC, but one of the reasons I said,

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Speaker 2: the NFC is so much more wide open, Like look

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Speaker 2: at the NFC East. Maybe a long shot there comes

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Speaker 2: out of the wildcard because you can get to the

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Speaker 2: zuer Bowl, then you can hedge or just one football game.

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Speaker 2: But I don't think that there's like one hundred to

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Speaker 2: one shot in the a FC that can number one

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Speaker 2: one get to the playoffs and then two go through

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Speaker 2: the gauntlet and get to the super Bowl. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: this this conference is loaded. But that's one of the

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Speaker 2: other reasons why if you look at for a long shot,

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Speaker 2: deep long shot, look at the NFC worst case scenario,

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Speaker 2: maybe a hedge, but it's just still one football game

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Speaker 2: you gotta win. But the men, it's gonna be fun

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Speaker 2: all year.

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Speaker 1: Let's start right off in the AFC East, and you

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Speaker 1: still have the Bills with eleven and a half for

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Speaker 1: their win total, that is tops in the AFC. So

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Speaker 1: you know, still projected as the favorite there. Obviously, just

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Speaker 1: a brutal loss in the playoffs, but still still a

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Speaker 1: pretty strong team all round. Obviously they lost some people

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Speaker 1: to the front office, so see how that works. And

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Speaker 1: on the sideline, then you have the Dolphins. They got

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Speaker 1: they get Tyreek Hill, so their win total just nine.

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Speaker 1: So that's you know, interesting, Patriots at eight and a half,

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Speaker 1: Jets bringing up the rear at five and a half.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious, as I want to start to Dolphins because

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Speaker 1: I think they're the most interesting. You know, I know

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Speaker 1: you were. I believe you were pretty down on them

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Speaker 1: last year.

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Speaker 2: Push pushed their win total because they won like eight

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Speaker 2: games in a row.

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Speaker 1: And beat the Patriots on the last day of season too,

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Speaker 1: I think, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, So I'm really

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Speaker 1: curious to your thoughts on the Dolphins. I know that

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Speaker 1: you're not like a huge too of believer, but you know,

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Speaker 1: you know I liked Flora as I don't know, I

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Speaker 1: know that that that situation is unfortunate. So like, what

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Speaker 1: do you make of this? Because the raft you look

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Speaker 1: at it on paper, and I mean there are pieces

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Speaker 1: there at some pretty important positions, but it is there

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Speaker 1: enough at quarterback? And should this totally higher or lower?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean the win total is nine. Last year

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Speaker 2: was nine juiced over, and I think they're much better

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Speaker 2: this year. They're thirty to win the win the super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: They finished, They went nine and eight last year. I

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Speaker 2: love what they did in the offseason. And look, I

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Speaker 2: was not a fan of two up because just as

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Speaker 2: some of the ex accurate issues throwing downfield, and you

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Speaker 2: got to remember his rookie year, like he was hurt

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Speaker 2: and like, I just think you need more time. I

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Speaker 2: think the potent there. I still want to see some more.

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Speaker 2: But they also have Teddy Bridgewater, Like you can't get

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Speaker 2: better than that as a backup option if things aren't

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Speaker 2: going right, So keep that in mind as well, maybe

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Speaker 2: even if if there's an injury or just if you

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Speaker 2: need him to step in. We've seen that in Miami before,

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Speaker 2: so who knows how that's gonna work out with two

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Speaker 2: And like the the Fitzpatrick thing, but we'll see. But

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Speaker 2: I love some of the moves they made. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you add tyreek Hill obviously massive downfield threat, You put

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Speaker 2: him with Wattle, you had said Wilson as well. Most importantly,

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Speaker 2: you know, you get Chase Edmonds in there too. We

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Speaker 2: could do some things most dirt, but most of you know,

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Speaker 2: bringing in like Connor Williams in Armstead. Yeah, they needed

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Speaker 2: guys on that offensive line. Gonna get a little better

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Speaker 2: some of the young pieces, but they were very bad

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Speaker 2: and they were they had to get rid of their

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Speaker 2: center is still a major major issue, but hopefully they

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Speaker 2: can address that in the draft. I was so low

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins last year. I loved what they did this year.

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Speaker 2: I project them at nine point one, so unfortunately, I

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Speaker 2: don't see any value there. I think that if you're

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Speaker 2: looking for one semi long shot in the AC so

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Speaker 2: like I said, I wouldn't go to one Dolphins around

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Speaker 2: like thirty to one, and all it will take is

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Speaker 2: too of making. I keep referring to the same thing

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Speaker 2: with the Josh Allen lead, so if he makes that

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Speaker 2: accuracy leap, and obviously having Hill is gonna help. And

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Speaker 2: most importantly, you know it wasn't all on too. He

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Speaker 2: also had like two offensive coordinators. His offensive line was

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Speaker 2: like the worst than the league. That doesn't help a

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Speaker 2: young quarterbacks yet, a lot of hurt weapons, no running game.

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Speaker 2: All that's improved now. So I think that the Dolphins

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Speaker 2: are interesting from a long shot perspective. I don't see

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Speaker 2: any value in their win total. But yeah, if to

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Speaker 2: it takes that leap, these pieces all fit together. There's

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Speaker 2: there's definitely some upside with Miami.

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Speaker 1: You know, a lot of people are gonna look at

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Speaker 1: and this is probably why it's only at nine, but

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Speaker 1: a lot of people, I know, there's you know, when

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Speaker 1: they're looking at win totals, they look at the pythagoron

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Speaker 1: wins from the year before. Did they overachieve or underachieved? Well,

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Speaker 1: they were seven point six wins pythagoron and that's essentially

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Speaker 1: calculated by extrapolating their point differential, you know, which was

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Speaker 1: minus thirty two. But they won nine games. But the

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Speaker 1: one thing I worry about with Miami is Flora's I

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Speaker 1: think really did he was a net positive for them,

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Speaker 1: you know, because they overachieved on their Pythagoron wins every

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Speaker 1: single year under Flores They had nine wins when their

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Speaker 1: pythagonon was at seven point six last year, ten wins

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Speaker 1: versus nine point seven the year before, and five wins

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Speaker 1: versus three point nine the year before. So Flora's might

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Speaker 1: have been worth like an extra you know, will half

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Speaker 1: win to a win. Now you have McDaniel, and granted

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Speaker 1: he's been in a good spot in San Francisco, but

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Speaker 1: we just don't know. There's a lot of uncertainty there.

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Speaker 1: But I will also say, like just looking at the roster,

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Speaker 1: the left tackle is in the bag. Now with Armstead,

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Speaker 1: you got one elite receiver and one very good receiver

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Speaker 1: in Hill and Waddle. You have an above average pass

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Speaker 1: catching tight end. Get sicky the line. Because you added

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Speaker 1: Armstead and Connor Williams, you have two above average linemen

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Speaker 1: at least, you know. I still think it can get

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Speaker 1: better on the right side. But then on defense, I

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Speaker 1: mean Xavian Howard, Byron Jones, jayvon Holland, the uh he

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Speaker 1: was a yeah, he was a rookie last year. Uh

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Speaker 1: the fourth highest graded safety of ninety two qualifiers. UH

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Speaker 1: at PFF free safety. He'll be he'll be, you know,

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Speaker 1: on the back end. So I think at all the

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Speaker 1: impact positions, Agba. You know, they have Wilkins and Ogba

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Speaker 1: on the line. You know. I like it. I think

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Speaker 1: it's it's really it sounds cliche, but it's really just

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Speaker 1: gonna come down at two Like if Tua can kind

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Speaker 1: of do what we thought he could always do, I

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Speaker 1: think that he is. I think this team could could

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Speaker 1: win double digit games. But the reason I agree with

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Speaker 1: you long shot only, don't bet the win total, Miami

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Speaker 1: only has uh four picks in a draft and none

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Speaker 1: in the top one hundred. They have one o two,

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Speaker 1: they one twenty five, they have two twenty four and

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Speaker 1: two forty seven. So this is a team that this

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Speaker 1: is kind of what they are now, like what we

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Speaker 1: see on paper is what they are.

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Speaker 2: So no sense only eight home games which matters for

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Speaker 2: the win total, especially you know when teams mind of me,

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Speaker 2: you don't think of like their crowd as having homefield advtage,

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Speaker 2: but you know teams travel down for that humidity or

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Speaker 2: they're warmer the team having the table with the cold like.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I think the wind total spot on. But

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Speaker 2: you want to take a long shot either plus three

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Speaker 2: fifty to win the division or I think more interesting

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Speaker 2: is like let me just take a flyer on then

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Speaker 2: the winning AFC or the Super Bowl, and uh, you

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Speaker 2: know the bet is on to a taking that next

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Speaker 2: step and then if he doesn't, you still have a

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Speaker 2: guy who's proven he can win the games of the

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Speaker 2: NFL and Teddy Bridgewater who could come in and who knows.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think the I think the division

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Speaker 1: is fair just because because of how highly rated the

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Speaker 1: Bills are. More so than you know what I mean,

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Speaker 1: Like it's I think the division is also in that

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Speaker 1: conversation just because like the Bills have the win total

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Speaker 1: like one win higher than anyone else in the AFC.

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Speaker 1: I agree, I think backup quarterback high high floor situation.

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Speaker 2: I prefer that the longer odds of a super both

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Speaker 2: to the division as well the Bills. The Bills urge

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Speaker 2: stam mean, look, the Bills were only future last year.

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Speaker 2: Sadly we got ahead of the market, but there's just

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Speaker 2: no value now. We had fourteen fourteen, fifteen to one

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Speaker 2: before the season, and they ended up being arguably the

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Speaker 2: best team in the NFL. Now they're plus six fifty,

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Speaker 2: they're Super Bowl favorites. I like some of the things

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Speaker 2: they did in the off season. I love the signing

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Speaker 2: of Crowder, like that was just his contract too, but

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Speaker 2: you had von Miller. I didn't love that contract, but yeah,

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Speaker 2: he might be able to help this year. Staff old

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Speaker 2: Tim Settle. I like some of the guys they added

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Speaker 2: OJ Howard, d klon Jones. They give her hireson Phillips, Levi,

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Speaker 2: Wallace Liciano, like some of the guys that rid of.

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Speaker 2: I like to like that they got rid of them.

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Speaker 2: You know you're gonna get Trey White back at corner.

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Speaker 2: You do have some aging safeties which I worry about,

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Speaker 2: and then you lose Dable. How important is that? And

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Speaker 2: does Alan where does Alan go? Do? Is he can brew?

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Speaker 2: Does he regress a little bit? So you know? Win

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Speaker 2: total for the Bills is like between eleven and a

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Speaker 2: half to twelve. It's over eleven and a half. Last

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Speaker 2: year was eleven. I project them at I can ply

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Speaker 2: to eleven seven. I protected them at eleven point eight,

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Speaker 2: and I have so no value in their futures, no

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Speaker 2: value in the division, no value in Super bowl Sadly,

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Speaker 2: Bills fans, we were one squipt kick away from probably

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Speaker 2: winning the Super Bowl last year and catching our future.

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Speaker 2: But it didn't happen that way. And that's the beauty

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Speaker 2: and the cruelty of NFL futures is one and done.

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Speaker 2: So nothing on the Bills. Patriots didn't. What do they

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Speaker 2: do in the offseason. I think that they got worse.

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Speaker 2: Last year they went ten and seven. Their win total

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Speaker 2: was like over nine juice that year. It's over eight

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Speaker 2: and a half juice this year. I project them at

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Speaker 2: right around nine nine to one nine two Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: they're forty to one. Does mac Jones take a step

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Speaker 2: forward or does he take a step back a little

239
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Speaker 2: sophomore slump? They still this ruster are still has holes

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Speaker 2: now in the secondary. I'm I'm not a buyer in

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Speaker 2: the Patriots. I think they're priced about accurate. And the

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Speaker 2: Jet stink. I mean I said that I haven't lost

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Speaker 2: a win total and last year's I have the Jets

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Speaker 2: under every year all the Jets under. Again, I'm not

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Speaker 2: a believer in Zach Wilson. They have. Their defense is horrendous,

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Speaker 2: I mean, just god awful. Maybe their offensive line will

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Speaker 2: be a little better, but they're not going to get stops.

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Speaker 2: This is a really bad team. The Dolphins, who I

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Speaker 2: think are better, Patriots are probably neutral, The Bills are

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Speaker 2: probably got a little bit better. Roster wise, They're in

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Speaker 2: a tough division and a tough conference, and I don't

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Speaker 2: believe in the quarterback. The defense stinks. This roster has

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Speaker 2: holes all over it. Under five and a half for

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Speaker 2: the Jets, yes, please, I make it four point four?

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Speaker 2: Yeah to win the division?

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Speaker 1: Right? Yeah? No thanks? This is the conference where you can,

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Speaker 1: you know, bet some of these teams bad team unders

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Speaker 1: because like we said, there's so many good teams, are

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Speaker 1: teams that have upside beyond even with their price that that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think the Jets under. I mean even the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: I mean, at first glance, you look at it, the

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Speaker 1: win totals eight and a half. You say, okay, you

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Speaker 1: know mac Jones here too, but you look at their roster,

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Speaker 1: and especially without J. C. Jackson, who was just other

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Speaker 1: worldly in terms of making their defense what it is

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Speaker 1: and get turnovers and just you know, get them off

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Speaker 1: the field on third down. Now they don't have that.

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Speaker 1: You know, Jalen Mills is essentially their top corner. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: they have some decent safeties, but it's a very average roster.

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Speaker 1: I mean even on they add Parker. On offense, they

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Speaker 1: got Myers, but it's like, you know, the tight ends

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Speaker 1: are what they are paid, probably overpaid for them, and

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Speaker 1: you know the line is good, but it's just like

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Speaker 1: a very average roster. And now you're in a conference

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Speaker 1: that is above average collectively. So you know, I could

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Speaker 1: I see more likely that I'm gonna be betting if

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Speaker 1: I am betting on the Patriots at some point, I

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Speaker 1: would be probably betting the under the Jets. I agree

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Speaker 1: go under in this AFC and then and yeah, that's

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Speaker 1: that's about that. And the Dolphins are that team that can.

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Speaker 1: If anyone's gonna challenge the Bills take advantage some injuries,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be the Dolphins. Uh, in this division?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I don't, I don't. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if maybe the Jets will win one game in the division,

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Speaker 2: but I mean try to five. They gotta get the

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Speaker 2: six wins to go over. I'll list of non division

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Speaker 2: games at the Browns, at the Packers, at the Vikings,

288
00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:16,280
Speaker 2: home against the Ravens, home against the Bengals, Bengals revenge

289
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Speaker 2: game for that Mike White loss home against the Bears.

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Speaker 2: All right, there's maybe one home against the Lines. There's

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Speaker 2: maybe two at Denver, at pitt at Seattle maybe and

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Speaker 2: then home against Jacksonville. That if they win all their

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Speaker 2: winnable games, get them the five I'll give. I'll give

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Speaker 2: them one in the division. Yeah, we're we taking the wire.

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Speaker 1: We taking the Jets plus nine and a half against

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and like they'll tie and we'll win at Seattle.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I mean I make a four point four.

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Speaker 2: I think they end up around four or five wins.

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Speaker 2: I think the win total should probably set it like five.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, give me the Jets under. Yeah, I think

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Speaker 2: Miami is a long shot that if you want to

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Speaker 2: take a shot, and it's all based on two.

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Speaker 1: I would one final thrown on the Jets. I would

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Speaker 1: actually recommend waiting to post draft to bet the Jets

305
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Speaker 1: under because they have two picks in the top ten,

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Speaker 1: four picks in the top forty, five picks in the

307
00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:12,360
Speaker 1: top seventy, and seven picks in the top one to twenty,

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Speaker 1: so they have seven picks in the first four rounds.

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Speaker 2: You can get some post draft hype there.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, listen, they're not going to change quarterbacks, right,

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Speaker 1: so it's like there's not going to be a true

312
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Speaker 1: the draft is going to improve the roster and probably

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Speaker 1: be worth you know, on the market, it should be

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Speaker 1: worth a half a win, but it's not going to

315
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Speaker 1: be anything that truly moves.

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Speaker 2: The needle, you know, just getting that under six like yeah,

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Speaker 2: same games, right.

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Speaker 1: Right, you know, So I would I look, i'd pay a.

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Speaker 2: Lot of juice for under six instead of going under.

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Speaker 1: And you might get That's what I'm saying. You might

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Speaker 1: get it just based on i mean, four picks in

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Speaker 1: the top forty. It's hard, at least on paper, to

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Speaker 1: fuck that up to the point where the market doesn't

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Speaker 1: bump you up but half a win. Yeah, all right,

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Speaker 1: let's move on to the AFC North and and the

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Speaker 1: first thing I will mention is that the Cleveland Browns

327
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Speaker 1: are most sportsbooks off the book because we don't know

328
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Speaker 1: exactly what's going to happen with Deshaun Watson and Baker

329
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Speaker 1: Mayfield for that matter, even if Watson can't play. So

330
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Speaker 1: interesting situation there. But we have the Bengals at ten

331
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Speaker 1: wins after going to the Super Bowl, Ravens your Ravens

332
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Speaker 1: and nine and a half, and Pittsburgh projected to have

333
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Speaker 1: their it will be the first losing season under Mike

334
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Speaker 1: tom Win. I believe they are at seven and a half.

335
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Speaker 1: What are your thoughts here in the AFC North. The

336
00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,520
Speaker 1: Browns i've seen are actually favored to win the division

337
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:36,720
Speaker 1: in the division odds.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, they're one seventy five Bengals plus two hundred

339
00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:42,880
Speaker 2: Ravens plus two twenty five, they're all right around two

340
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Speaker 2: to one, and then the Steelers are eight to one. Yeah,

341
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Speaker 2: I mean, the biggest question is what's gonna happen with

342
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Speaker 2: Seaan Watson. I don't think he's gonna play the full season.

343
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Speaker 2: I wouldn't be shocked if he was suspending for a

344
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Speaker 2: half the season. Who knows what that was gonna happen.

345
00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:56,160
Speaker 2: I'm not a lawyer, but that's obviously massive. The difference

346
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Speaker 2: between Deshaun Watson. Maybe there's probably gonna be some rust early,

347
00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,640
Speaker 2: but between de Shaun Watson and Baker Mayfield is big

348
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:04,879
Speaker 2: and I don't really you know, they still need some

349
00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:06,720
Speaker 2: help a wide receiver along the defensive line, but if

350
00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:08,280
Speaker 2: they got Watson as one of the best teams in

351
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Speaker 2: the AFC, so really hard to project with the Browns

352
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Speaker 2: and what's gonna happen with Watson, which makes this division

353
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Speaker 2: pretty tough to project as well. Bengals. Look, I mean

354
00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:21,399
Speaker 2: last year, fluky year and as far as they got

355
00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,440
Speaker 2: a division that just fell apart on them for them,

356
00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,680
Speaker 2: the Browns all their injuries. The Ravens were the unluckiest

357
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Speaker 2: team in the NFL and one of the most unluckiest

358
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Speaker 2: teams in the past twenty years when it came to the injuries.

359
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:32,480
Speaker 2: We'll talk about them in a second. The team lost

360
00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:34,960
Speaker 2: his entire backfield before the year started, then its offensive line,

361
00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:38,240
Speaker 2: then all four starting defensive backs. It just went on

362
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,040
Speaker 2: and on and on. Did Denil Lamar Jackson's hurt? I mean,

363
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:43,679
Speaker 2: so the Bengals kind of got like a red carpet

364
00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:45,560
Speaker 2: ride to get ten wins and won the division. They

365
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,280
Speaker 2: went ten to seven and one, and then they had

366
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Speaker 2: things break right for them and got to the super Bowl.

367
00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:52,120
Speaker 2: Credit for them, they still have Joe Barrow, they still

368
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:54,840
Speaker 2: those receivers. But here's where I thought it was gonna

369
00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,640
Speaker 2: be faiting the Bengals. But I loved what they did

370
00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:00,600
Speaker 2: as far as bolstering their offensive line, which is their

371
00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:07,719
Speaker 2: biggest weakness. Right you bring in Kappa Hers Karras. I

372
00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:09,320
Speaker 2: just love what they did because that was that was

373
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:11,080
Speaker 2: the one thing that I was going to hold them

374
00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:14,320
Speaker 2: back if they didn't play in an awful division last year,

375
00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,600
Speaker 2: and they addressed it. So you know, they still need

376
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:20,360
Speaker 2: a left guard, they still need to help at linebacker,

377
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,560
Speaker 2: a corner, But I like what they did along the

378
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:25,520
Speaker 2: offensive line. And last year they went ten to seven

379
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:27,200
Speaker 2: to one. Their win total was six and a half.

380
00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:31,879
Speaker 2: Their win total now it's ten. I project them at

381
00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:34,800
Speaker 2: they're under ten minus like one. I project them at

382
00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:38,240
Speaker 2: ten point zero. So I'm not fading the Bengals, but

383
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:39,879
Speaker 2: we all know how the teams that have last Super well,

384
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,920
Speaker 2: I have not had a lot of success the team

385
00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:45,280
Speaker 2: for me here number one, I'm going under. And with that,

386
00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,480
Speaker 2: you know that Mitch Bortles is their quarterback, Mitch Trubisky.

387
00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:50,000
Speaker 2: This team is a mess.

388
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:52,240
Speaker 1: You've just been bortled.

389
00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:56,240
Speaker 2: Their their secondary is a mess, their quarterback situation is

390
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,320
Speaker 2: a mess, their offense is a mess. The management is

391
00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:00,879
Speaker 2: a mess. Last year they benefited from the Ravens and

392
00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 2: the Browns having down the year. They are clearly the

393
00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:04,960
Speaker 2: worst team in this division. I think it's gonna be

394
00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 2: longer for the Steelers. Them and the Jets are my

395
00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,480
Speaker 2: two favorite win totals. See I project them six and

396
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,840
Speaker 2: a half wins for the Steelers with some uncertainty, like

397
00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 2: I'm pricing in a probability of how many games Watson

398
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 2: will play. With that now Watson plays the full season,

399
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,040
Speaker 2: that gets even worse. But I think the long shot

400
00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 2: here is the Ravens in the Super Bowl. And if

401
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 2: you listen to our podcast, our super Bowl preview podcasts,

402
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 2: you could have found thirty to one and forty one,

403
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 2: which I got. I remember we were like we was

404
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:32,720
Speaker 2: is there any features out there? And I said none,

405
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,400
Speaker 2: usually recommend any, but that one's crazy. The Ravens last

406
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 2: year their win total, they went eight to nine, and

407
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 2: they were like, I can't even explain to you the

408
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 2: amount of bad injury luck they had. You're talking their

409
00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 2: entire backfield. You remember guys like Dobbins, they got all

410
00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:53,639
Speaker 2: pro left tackle, Their entire secondary went down. They were

411
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 2: playing backups. Lamar Jackson got hurt. So just getting all

412
00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 2: those guys back and then having better injury luck on

413
00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:02,199
Speaker 2: that I think is huge. You know, you sign one

414
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 2: of the best safeties in the NFL to go along

415
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:08,160
Speaker 2: with your corners coming back. I liked what I saw

416
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,399
Speaker 2: from some of the young receivers last year. You know,

417
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,959
Speaker 2: you still need somehow I think, get another corner. They

418
00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:15,919
Speaker 2: need a little help on the d line and linebacker.

419
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 2: But I think the defense is going to hit get

420
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,560
Speaker 2: a huge boost from a scheme change. Right That Martindale

421
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 2: system it did, it had, it played its role for

422
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 2: a time. But how many times did we talk about

423
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 2: and I talked about last year the Ravens, this defense

424
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,640
Speaker 2: doesn't work anymore against the elite quarterback. You can't blitz Mahomes.

425
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 2: You can't blitz Burrow right like it's it's and everyone

426
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 2: kind of was onto the Ravens scheme. So I think

427
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,199
Speaker 2: they get a boost from that as well. And this

428
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:39,879
Speaker 2: is a team that going into last year, it was

429
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,879
Speaker 2: who's the best team the I see the Ravens are

430
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, right, that was the conversation. Well, the Ravens

431
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 2: all they did, they just had awful injury luck. It

432
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,560
Speaker 2: should that should change for the better. This is still

433
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:55,120
Speaker 2: one of the most well run organizations. Yeah, in the NFL.

434
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 2: They get a really easy schedule because of they finished

435
00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 2: in the last place, huge of rooting against them in

436
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,920
Speaker 2: that last game of the year because of that, and

437
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 2: their win total is nine to seven. I project them

438
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:08,960
Speaker 2: at ten to five. Lean over a little bit there,

439
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 2: but I'd rather take you found them twenty five to one.

440
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,439
Speaker 2: Hit it. I think that they should get into the playoffs.

441
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,160
Speaker 2: The divisions a crapshooting. I don't know, Like with Watson

442
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 2: and with the Browns, Bengals and Ravens. I think it

443
00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 2: go either way. The toughest thing is like I don't

444
00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 2: want the AFT's loaded, So like you got do you

445
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:26,920
Speaker 2: choose someone? They're gonna be a really good team that

446
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 2: gets left out. So but I trust the Ravens to

447
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:31,199
Speaker 2: get there. I trust out of the bounce back year,

448
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 2: a lot of regression coming their way, a lot of

449
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 2: things I do like about them. This is the first

450
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,679
Speaker 2: time I've been doing an NFL podcast most years with

451
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:38,719
Speaker 2: you before due to a couple of years before then.

452
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 2: This first time I've ever been able to recommend my

453
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 2: Ravens as a future. Last time I bet them, they

454
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:44,880
Speaker 2: ended up winning the Super Bowl. I got really lucky

455
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 2: about of forty to one before the flat going on

456
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 2: that lucky run, and that's what we'll lead this year.

457
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 2: A couple of players get lucky, you get in the playoffs,

458
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:52,359
Speaker 2: but I think that they'll be there in the end.

459
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 2: I think there's value there. This is a team that

460
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 2: last going into last year, was like, all right, you've

461
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,199
Speaker 2: been thinking there'll being ten, ten to one, twelve to

462
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 2: one range. Now you get them twenty to one because

463
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 2: what happened last year. Trust in Harball, trust in this organization,

464
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:07,199
Speaker 2: and I like them as a long shot. Here. I

465
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 2: don't I would lean over in the win total, but

466
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 2: like just the division so loaded the uncertainty with Watson,

467
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 2: I'm staying away from the division futures, staying from wind

468
00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 2: totals here except for Steelers under Ravens. Long shot, what

469
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 2: are your thoughts? It's Baltimore, gentlemen, the gods will not

470
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 2: save you.

471
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:25,639
Speaker 1: I love the Ravens. I think the Ravens are the

472
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 1: team to invest in this division. I agree to Bengals

473
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 1: got a lot, but I like what they did on

474
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 1: their interior line. So the Bengals could be a powerhouse

475
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 1: this year. But right now the market is saying the

476
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 1: Bengals aren't even the favorite to win the division. Baltimore

477
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,800
Speaker 1: is than third. I don't mind that at plus two

478
00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 1: to twenty five, because I think they have as good

479
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 1: a shot as the Bengals, and probably a better shot

480
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 1: than the Browns. But I agree long shot wise, I mean,

481
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 1: not only are do we know the Ravens, you know,

482
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 1: can kind of get to that level. They've been there before.

483
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 1: But we know that this team's issues last year were

484
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,040
Speaker 1: injuries and scheme, and then because of that you mentioned,

485
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 1: they finished in last place. So last way, schedule, also

486
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 1: nine picks in the first four rounds, and this is

487
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 1: a team that generally drafts pretty well. You know you

488
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 1: mentioned it. Well run organization.

489
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 2: So if you look at a lot of a lot

490
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,520
Speaker 2: of advanced matches out there that measure like per you know,

491
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 2: per draft pick right value, they're number one over the

492
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 2: past ten years.

493
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 1: So this is a team that profiles as one of

494
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 1: those teams that it's like, if I'm betting in April

495
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,400
Speaker 1: and I'm going to put money, tie up money, this

496
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 1: is one of the teams I do it with because

497
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 1: number one, they could get better after the draft the market.

498
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 1: So it's like like whether it's a AFC future, they're

499
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 1: like twelve, twelve to fifteen to one, depending on where

500
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 1: you're looking. Super Bowl they're usually twenty two to twenty five.

501
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 1: I think you got them a thirty and even a

502
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 1: division you know, anywhere from two and a half to

503
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,199
Speaker 1: two to one. I think those numbers are all going

504
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 1: to get shorter post draft, and we're probably going to

505
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 1: be sitting here saying, WHOA did the Ravens you know

506
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,399
Speaker 1: come up in the draft because they have so many picks,

507
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:03,879
Speaker 1: and their picks are usually good, and their picks are

508
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 1: usually smart, like in terms of filling holes that they

509
00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 1: need to on a roster and so and that you

510
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 1: know they could make a trade you know who knows

511
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:12,879
Speaker 1: what they what they do with all these picks. So

512
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 1: this is the type of team you bet on, and

513
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 1: there's just not hype. That's also That's the other thing.

514
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 1: It's not like the you know, the Dolphins, as much

515
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 1: as we I think we like them, there's already hype

516
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 1: on the Dolphins to a certain extent because of the

517
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 1: swashy move they made. The Ravens, there's no hype. This

518
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 1: is just a post hype high quality so soon to everything.

519
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,880
Speaker 1: We usually talk about the NFL buying low and selling hot.

520
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: Last year, it was not the right time to buy

521
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 1: the rate is the right time to buy the bills?

522
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 2: Right? Bought the bills Now, basically the bills went to

523
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 2: where the Ravens were, and the Ravens went to where

524
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 2: the bills were. Even further, just the ebbs and flows

525
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 2: the NFL. They should be in the mix in the AFC.

526
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 2: I think they should be like fifteen to one. So

527
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 2: I agree, you like do you have a do you

528
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:58,360
Speaker 2: like to Steelers under? I mean, you know, I hate

529
00:24:58,400 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 2: Mitch Bortls. We I'm gonna be lower.

530
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think on paper it makes sense. I just

531
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 1: I don't know if I want to I want to

532
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 1: see the final roster, like I want to see the draft,

533
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: Like it could go down. I could lose a half

534
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 1: a point if you know, things don't go well. But

535
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 1: I just I hate Benninggains tomlin in in like win

536
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: total spots just because they've they've always found a way,

537
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 1: you know, so, but I agree, I mean they should

538
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:26,120
Speaker 1: be the worst team in that division. I also want

539
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 1: to see what happens with Watson for them, because like

540
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 1: that could be the difference right there. If they could

541
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 1: play you know, Baker Mayfield or someone that's not Baker

542
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 1: Mayfield or Deshaun Watson against Cleveland twice, you know, that

543
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: could be the difference right there between the seven and

544
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: the eight or the sixth and the seven or whatever

545
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 1: it is.

546
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, it could even matter scheduleized, like when do you

547
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 2: play the Browns?

548
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, yea in the air.

549
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 2: Or to watch too schedules come out like first or

550
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 2: second week in May.

551
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 1: By the way, but it is unfortunate that they're probably

552
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,400
Speaker 1: not going to get to play Baker because that's they

553
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 1: just it's perfect for them. They just crush them. I

554
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 1: just want to let you guys know that sleep is

555
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 1: the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players.

556
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,600
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557
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558
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559
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560
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 1: in any sport, choose two or more players that you

561
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 1: like and pick they're over or under for example number

562
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 1: of points in basketball or amount of hits in baseball.

563
00:26:30,359 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 1: Then you choose the amount of money you want to

564
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 1: enter into the contest. If you pick correctly, you could

565
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Speaker 1: win anywhere from two to over twenty times the money

566
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Speaker 1: that you put in. And the main reason I'm excited

567
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Speaker 1: about over Under on Sleeper is that it's the only

568
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569
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 1: It's got a built in group chat where I can

570
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,199
Speaker 1: see and copy my friend's picks with the tap of

571
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572
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573
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574
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577
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Speaker 1: When you deposit, terms and conditions apply. See Sleepers terms

578
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 1: of use for details. All right, let's go to AFC South,

579
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 1: and I'm we got the Colts and Titans nine and

580
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 1: a half. We got the Jaguars at six and a

581
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:31,159
Speaker 1: Textants at four and a half. So this is like

582
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 1: a carbon copy of what we had last year, if

583
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken, like the exact same win totals. Are

584
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 1: you gonna Are you gonna tell me we have to

585
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 1: bet the Colts again, because I don't want to be like.

586
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 2: Nope, no, I think the Colts got worse. Yeah, OKAYI

587
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 2: so yeah, and I think the Titans got worse. I

588
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 2: think the Texans somehow got worse. I think the Jags

589
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 2: got better. Yeah, So maybe I tried this last year.

590
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 2: Maybe you take a shot with the Jags when the division.

591
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 2: If things break right, Lawrence takes a big leap forward

592
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 2: and you have like coaching bump. I show value on

593
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 2: believe it or not. I mean the Texans win total

594
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 2: is like four over four minus one twenty minus one

595
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 2: twenty five somewhere around there. I show value on the

596
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 2: under I make I project them at three point six wins.

597
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 2: This team is horrifying, and they're in the division where

598
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 2: I don't love. So I don't think i'll bet it

599
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:33,639
Speaker 2: because like just' that's a really low number. But I

600
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 2: would lean that way the Jags. Their win total is over,

601
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 2: it's choiced over six. I just couldn't get there, and

602
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 2: I thought that they were a lot better, but the

603
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 2: AFCA's look, I mean, I'm only at like five to one.

604
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 2: I gotta go back and look at my Jagson. So

605
00:28:46,520 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 2: I liked what I did, and I bumped them a

606
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 2: lot in the offseason, even assuming that it's gonna be

607
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 2: a coaching in like year two Lawrence bump. But it's

608
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 2: not like he was great last year. So I can't

609
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 2: bet the Jags over. But I don't show any value.

610
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 2: I actually show value in the under. And then as

611
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 2: far as the Colts and the Titans, I just don't

612
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 2: love what they did in the awesome. If you love

613
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan, you just think that he was behind a

614
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 2: bad offensive line and it was a disaster and he

615
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,920
Speaker 2: just needs to get to right. Who I loved and

616
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 2: maybe you liked the Colts, but you know the Titans.

617
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 2: I projected like nine point three their win totals nine

618
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 2: and a half. The Colts I projected right around ten.

619
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 2: Their win totals like over nine and a half two,

620
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 2: so it's like nine to seven nine eight. A lot

621
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 2: of that's just because they're in a really bad division

622
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 2: with some favorable schedule spots. But I will betting any

623
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,360
Speaker 2: win totals in here. Maybe I'll take a shot on

624
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 2: the Jags to win the division. I lean Texans under,

625
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,959
Speaker 2: but I don't know if I'll go that low. So

626
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 2: this division, I really I just don't want to spend

627
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 2: much time on. I think this is a one whoever

628
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 2: wins this division, that's the only team that's getting in

629
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 2: from this division, and they're probably to end up with

630
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 2: like nine wins.

631
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I was about to say. I actually

632
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 1: like the Colts under nine and a half. I mean,

633
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 1: I think the defense solid, but they lost eber Flues obviously.

634
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: You know, Gilmore is a nice ad for them.

635
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 2: He's over the hill. I don't even know.

636
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's it looks nice on papers. I guess

637
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 1: what I should say the same thing with in Gakwa.

638
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 1: It looks nice on paper. He was one hundred and

639
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 1: fourth UH rated of one hundred eight edge rushers last

640
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,840
Speaker 1: year by PFF. So uh so, then now you're still

641
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 1: in a situation question offensive line, You're.

642
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 2: Still left tackle. Who's your left tackle?

643
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: Right? It's like, you know, and I look at the offense.

644
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 1: I love Michael Pittman as a football player, but you know,

645
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 1: right now your receivers are Paris Campbell and and you

646
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 1: do when you lost Pascal is a good special team

647
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: or Matt Ryan Carson went the same thing at this

648
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,960
Speaker 1: point in their respective careers. Like Matt, Ryan's not moving

649
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 1: a needle, So this is a very It's like.

650
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 2: Would be such a pip, would be like a star

651
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 2: definitely actually two but like no, but I'm saying like

652
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 2: if he was like a three or maybe a two

653
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 2: on a team, but like one, yeah, but I'm saying

654
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 2: if he was a three inner team, that's that's like

655
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 2: Bengals quality but two awesome. One He's serviceable. But it's

656
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 2: there's it's you need to the depth. There is real bad. Yeah,

657
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 2: it's scary. And Ryan's not getting any younger and he's

658
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 2: not getting any faster. And I don't think the offensive

659
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 2: line is as you know, dominant as some people think.

660
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 2: So you know, obviously you're gonna have the running game

661
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 2: is gonna be there, the defenses is gonna be good,

662
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 2: and they're well coached.

663
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 1: But so that I mean, now you know that's.

664
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 2: Yea, yeah, so yeah, I don't. I don't this team

665
00:31:37,240 --> 00:31:38,719
Speaker 2: go win the division. I think they're gonna end up

666
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 2: with like nine or ten wins, and I think that's

667
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:44,719
Speaker 2: like what the Titans are gonna end up around. But

668
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 2: I think that there's more downside than upside, So I

669
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 2: don't mind the underbat.

670
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 1: Here's here's one. The Culture right now are minus one

671
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: sixty five to make the playoffs plus one thirty five

672
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 1: not to I would take the know because, like you said,

673
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 1: I think it's a fifty to fifty shot whoever wins

674
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: the division. I still think the Titans are slightly better

675
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 1: just because the Titans have offense, because like, the Titans

676
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: have the same running game the coach do, right, but

677
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:15,239
Speaker 1: they have a passing offense like a a legit like

678
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 1: solid passing offense. And I think they're actually better coach

679
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 1: than the Coat, like we always you know, Frank Reich

680
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 1: is great at times, but I mean that that collapse

681
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 1: kind of that you got to put that on him. Too,

682
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, you can't just put it on

683
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz. It was it was a team wide collapse

684
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 1: last year.

685
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 2: So I don't also surprised too.

686
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, but that's my point bet the coach not to

687
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 1: make the playoffs.

688
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I mean versus Titans.

689
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, if it's a third team, it's gravy ye yeah, yeah,

690
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: So that's I mean, it's not it's not amazing. It's

691
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: just plus one and thirty five. But at least, you know,

692
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,479
Speaker 1: unlike these win totals where you pretty much have to

693
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 1: weigh juice no matter what on each side on most

694
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 1: of them, uh, you know, plus one thirty five. Not

695
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs, it's a load of a f c. So,

696
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:03,000
Speaker 1: like there's even a chance that the Coats are like

697
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 1: a you know, nine to ten win team and.

698
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, yep, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean it's it's yeah,

699
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 2: Titans went to get to eleven wins right.

700
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: To be the eight team team. Yeah yeah, yeah, So

701
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 1: and that's that it was kind of trending that direction

702
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 1: last year. They were in a fight to the end,

703
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 1: you know, as a as a winning team above five

704
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 1: hundred team to kind of get in there and they didn't.

705
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 1: So that's that's that's the bet I like with the coach.

706
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: I think the under nine and a half is fair

707
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 1: as well. It's just not as sexy. All right, let's

708
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:40,080
Speaker 1: go to the a f C West and finish it

709
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 1: off year. This is I mean, this is this is

710
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 1: gonna be a fun one. That casey at ten and

711
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,640
Speaker 1: a half. Wait, did they finally go under their win

712
00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 1: total last year?

713
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 2: Did they pushed?

714
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 1: They pushed but some it would depends some something books

715
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:53,000
Speaker 1: and a half.

716
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 2: Anyway, Yeah, we'll get Read to push over.

717
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: We can't get recorded.

718
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 2: I recorded, like because I do. He applied, so like

719
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 2: if it's over twelve minus like one, it's like twelve

720
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 2: point two. So I've had twelve point two. Sorry, so

721
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:11,319
Speaker 2: I rounded it down to twelve. So I gave him

722
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:13,839
Speaker 2: a push, and I will give Read the push. So yeah,

723
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 2: he's uh five last year win total. Now this year though,

724
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 2: because House, this division isn't because of Howe the I

725
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 2: say is down to ten and a.

726
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 1: Half, Chargers at ten, Broncos at ten, Raiders eight and

727
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,400
Speaker 1: a half. I mean, let's start. Let's start with the

728
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:31,919
Speaker 1: Chiefs just because I think all these other teams are

729
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 1: even more interesting this year because it's just because of

730
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 1: the moves they made or you know Chargers case, Well, yeah,

731
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,839
Speaker 1: the moves they made as well. But what are your

732
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 1: thoughts on the Chiefs, Like, is it fair to knock

733
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 1: them down to this for losing Tyreeko and because you

734
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 1: know kind of now they're entering into a gauntlet of

735
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 1: a division. It's ten and a half two high? Is

736
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 1: it's too low? We know Andrey doesn't lose these things.

737
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 2: Uh, look, I said, I'm going on, I'm gonna be

738
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,719
Speaker 2: betting the Chiefs under I know it. I thought it

739
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,319
Speaker 2: was gonna be like at twelve. Maybe I think it opened,

740
00:35:03,360 --> 00:35:07,480
Speaker 2: might open at twelve because you lose Tyree kill, don't

741
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 2: I mean, look, they think amount of money they gave

742
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:13,279
Speaker 2: to Patrick Walams, You're gonna have to make sacrifice other

743
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 2: you lose Ward, you lose Hughes, lose Pringle. I mean,

744
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 2: and then who do you bring in nbs Shuster and Scantling?

745
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 2: Did you bert Jermaine Carter linebacker, Justin Reid at safety

746
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 2: for Honey Badger? That's the down grade. Malvin Ingram was

747
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 2: a free agent. It was it was helpful to the defense.

748
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 2: Is gonna stack the defensive line is bad, the cornerback

749
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:38,840
Speaker 2: situation is bad, linebacker situation is bad, the defense is

750
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 2: gonna be really bad, and then you lose Tyreek Kill

751
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 2: and teams have started to figure out the offense a

752
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,240
Speaker 2: little bit more than they had. We've seen the Chiefs

753
00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:47,840
Speaker 2: kind of punch back, but then we saw him the

754
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,800
Speaker 2: second f completely implode against the Bengals when they simply

755
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 2: just dropped eight. So I was like, I'm definite gonna

756
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:56,399
Speaker 2: be going the Chiefs under here, I'm gonna be lower

757
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 2: than the market I am, but I made it like

758
00:35:59,000 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 2: ten to three, So sadly, if the total was at

759
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 2: like twelve, it definitely would have went under. Now a

760
00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,879
Speaker 2: lot of that also is because the Chargers are better,

761
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 2: The Broncos are much better, and the Raiders are better,

762
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 2: and there's are teams you play six times and the

763
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 2: AFC as a whole is better. So that's not all

764
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 2: Just like I dropped the Chiefs like two wins. A

765
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 2: lot of it has to do with who they're playing,

766
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 2: so I think that they got a little worse. Still

767
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 2: one of the best teams in the a FC, but

768
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 2: their division is loaded, the conference is loaded, and they

769
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 2: finished the first place last year to the first place schedule,

770
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 2: I do. I can't wait to bet them against the Bengals,

771
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 2: though have that spot circle already. They do have two

772
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 2: Day one picks, so we'll see what they can do

773
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 2: with those. Hopefully they don't have their running back as

774
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 2: they did previously. But ten to won to win the

775
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 2: Super Bowl, plus one sixty to win the division, No thanks,

776
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 2: I want nothing to do with the Chiefs. I love

777
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 2: some of the moves that the Chargers mate right getting

778
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 2: J C. Jackson, Everett day, you go Khalil Mack. It's

779
00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 2: a little over the hill, but look you're going after it. Now.

780
00:37:00,680 --> 00:37:02,719
Speaker 2: You lose Boulaga, so you got questions at right tackle.

781
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:04,359
Speaker 2: You don't want to see storm Norton out there again.

782
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 2: See to right tackle, you need a little bit of help,

783
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 2: a corner, maybe receiver. But uh, they improved, and you

784
00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 2: think that Herbert's going to take another step forward from

785
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:19,320
Speaker 2: everything that I've seen. Win total over ten minus one twenty.

786
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 2: I make them so it's like ten to two. I

787
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 2: make them like nine to nine. So nothing there for me.

788
00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:28,080
Speaker 2: Super Bowl sixteen to one, it's like, probably need a

789
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 2: little more than that, because I don't know they're gonna

790
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 2: get out of vision. I don't know they're gon make

791
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:35,800
Speaker 2: the playoffs. They go with ten games and missed the playoffs.

792
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 2: Then you got the Broncos, who you know, their win

793
00:37:41,160 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 2: total over ten minus one twenty five, almost the same

794
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 2: exact thing as the Chargers. They're sixteen to win the

795
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:47,880
Speaker 2: Super Bowl, almost the same as the Charger. I have

796
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:51,760
Speaker 2: empowered the same exact to the tenth to the hundredth

797
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 2: that the Chargers and the Broncos actually equal. Broncos with

798
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 2: their schedule I project at ten point one and they're

799
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 2: implied when total was like over ten minys on twenties,

800
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 2: like ten point two, So no value there, But love

801
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,560
Speaker 2: what they did added Russ right Russ or Drew Locke,

802
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 2: big upgrade, you you know. I like some of the

803
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 2: other getting Randy Gregory. I think their defense, which has

804
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 2: had a lot of injuries, I think that as stone

805
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 2: as they think, you just figure out the other corner spot.

806
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 2: I mean, I think Ronald Darby is projected the starter,

807
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 2: and they decide to certain they get another corner out

808
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:27,359
Speaker 2: there because he got Kareem Jackson back, and you got

809
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 2: one of the best safeties in the NFL already and

810
00:38:29,400 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 2: Simmons defense is dangerous. You got Russ, you got the

811
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 2: weapons who are going to be back healthy, Denver's dangers

812
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 2: as well, and then the Raiders, who I think get

813
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 2: they got a lot better. I love some of the

814
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:44,759
Speaker 2: additions that they made. I actually think Harmon can come

815
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 2: in and do some things at safety. I still think

816
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:50,720
Speaker 2: he's extremely underrated. You know, do you bring in Chandler

817
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,320
Speaker 2: Jones and I like some of the guys that some

818
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:55,280
Speaker 2: of the guys they got rid of, and then obviously

819
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:56,840
Speaker 2: you bring one of the best receivers, if not the

820
00:38:56,960 --> 00:39:00,279
Speaker 2: best receiver in the NFL. Do you basically replace Jay

821
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:03,720
Speaker 2: Jones your boy with Devanta Adams, which is just massive.

822
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 2: They their offensive line so needs little help defensive line,

823
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 2: but getting cross they replacing in Gako, Channel Jones and

824
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:12,800
Speaker 2: the other side of Crosby. That's gonna make their defensive

825
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:16,280
Speaker 2: backs better. Now I think they still need. The corners

826
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 2: are a little scary. It's like rock House, Sin and

827
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 2: Mown are projected at starting corners. I want to see

828
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 2: them maybe address that. But they're thirty five to win

829
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,839
Speaker 2: the win the Super Bowl win total eight and a half.

830
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 2: I actually project them at eight point nine, not a

831
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,799
Speaker 2: ton of value, but maybe the move here and I'm

832
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 2: curious to get your thoughts on this is what I've

833
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:34,800
Speaker 2: been setting up because this is just a load of

834
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,879
Speaker 2: division Casey plus one sixty to win the division Denver

835
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 2: plus two to fifty Chargers plus two fifty Vegas plus

836
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 2: six hundred. I don't think that they're that far away.

837
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 2: And are all these teams just gonna eat each other

838
00:39:46,040 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 2: up where it's like they're all around nine to eleven

839
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 2: wins and it comes down to a couple bounces here

840
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:53,239
Speaker 2: and I get six to one on the Raiders to

841
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 2: win the division in car Magic, I think they improve

842
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 2: their roster. That's where I'm leaning as a shot. A

843
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 2: division shot is potentially the Raiders six to one. Curious

844
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:04,879
Speaker 2: to get your thoughts on the absolutely loaded AFC West.

845
00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:07,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you said a lot of it. You know,

846
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 1: I like the Raiders at six to one as well,

847
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 1: because I do think this is a lot closer. I

848
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 1: think if you're of the opinion that it's really more

849
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 1: of a three team race still with the Broncos, the Chiefs,

850
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:25,720
Speaker 1: and the Chargers. I love what the Chargers did. However,

851
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:31,399
Speaker 1: the Broncos finishing in last place, gives them a game

852
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: against like the Jets, whereas you know, the the the

853
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 1: Chargers get Miami and that right there, Like you know,

854
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: they're both at ten wins, right, they're both pretty much

855
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 1: equal to win the division. That could be the difference.

856
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:47,760
Speaker 1: You know, the schedules are very similar. But the Broncos

857
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:51,760
Speaker 1: with that last place schedule, uh, you know, just get

858
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 1: a couple of different opponents and I think that, you know,

859
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 1: might make a difference.

860
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:55,919
Speaker 2: There.

861
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 1: So also.

862
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 2: Browns rasing that game last week. The year got last place,

863
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 2: Browns got third. Same thing.

864
00:41:05,080 --> 00:41:08,239
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890
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 1: to the show. So, I mean I really like the

891
00:42:57,719 --> 00:42:59,840
Speaker 1: charges that, I really like the broncos. I think the chiefs,

892
00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 1: I think you kind of want to fade the chiefs

893
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 1: I mean just based on what we've seen. You know,

894
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 1: the cracks were kind of showing in the Chiefs just

895
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: this last year already, like we pointed it out, they

896
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 1: were overrated. They didn't really ever fix what teams are

897
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 1: doing against it. They kind of adjusted a little bit,

898
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: but really it was just that they played like the

899
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 1: Steelers and the teams that they normally just beat up

900
00:43:21,280 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 1: on anyway because they match up well. And then it

901
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 1: was like when they played teams that they didn't match

902
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 1: up well with, it didn't work out. And now because

903
00:43:29,719 --> 00:43:32,399
Speaker 1: the Raiders are better, you know, the Broncos are better,

904
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 1: the Chargers are better. Now you're talking about six games

905
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:38,279
Speaker 1: a year against teams they may not match up well with,

906
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:40,320
Speaker 1: Like you may look at them and you don't have

907
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 1: to play.

908
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 2: You don't have to play all the numbers, like half

909
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 2: the numbers that Mahomes put up against the Raiders. Yeah,

910
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:47,439
Speaker 2: because Gus Bradley wouldn't change his defense, and by the way,

911
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,319
Speaker 2: Gus Bradley's in Indianapolis out we didn't mention that there

912
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:54,239
Speaker 2: could be a problem. But now the Raiders they're not

913
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 2: just I don't think they might not be completely helpless

914
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:59,439
Speaker 2: and give up fifty to the Chiefs. Assume that they're

915
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:01,759
Speaker 2: going to make some not just sitting the old cover

916
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 2: threes that Mahomes has figured out, So that could be

917
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:05,839
Speaker 2: something else that worked with the Avenger as well, because

918
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 2: they can just got buried by the Chiefs twice last year.

919
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, So like that's kind of how I

920
00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,359
Speaker 1: like the Raiders is a long shot within the division. Yeah,

921
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 1: and then I like, if you're just talking about the

922
00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 1: division itself, fade to the Chiefs. Broncos are my favorite

923
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 1: because I think I think Russ like that. I think

924
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 1: that was the floor last year. I think I think

925
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 1: there's a great roster around him, and the Charges just

926
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 1: made really good moves and have I mean their quarterbacks

927
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:33,879
Speaker 1: upside is through the roof, you know, and and he's

928
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 1: you know, it's like, you know, these two teams they

929
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:38,359
Speaker 1: could be the they could be the two best teams

930
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,480
Speaker 1: in AFC. You know, if the Bills stumble, these these

931
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: could be the two best teams at AFC. Charges and Broncos.

932
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 1: So I think you have to fade the Chiefs if

933
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: you're just picking between the Charges and Broncos. I wean

934
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 1: Broncos only because they got that extra game against the

935
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 1: Jets with a charge to play by end. But that's

936
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,800
Speaker 1: the only reason, Like I think that. I think like

937
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:55,920
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a chance at some point where you

938
00:44:56,000 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 1: can bet like exact division finishes. I'm sure the Chiefs

939
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 1: to finish last are gonna be like ridiculously long odds,

940
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:04,800
Speaker 1: and even if the Chiefs to finish third would be

941
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:07,839
Speaker 1: probably pretty long odds. I would definitely look at both

942
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 1: of those because I think the Chargers and Broncos are

943
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 1: better than the Chiefs right now. I think that with

944
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 1: the Raiders there's just not as much of a disparity

945
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 1: as people think between the Raiders and the Chiefs, and

946
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 1: their two games, which usually go to the Chiefs way

947
00:45:21,320 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 1: could go either way, which could really swing things. So

948
00:45:25,080 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 1: but but I mean, I love the J. C. Jackson

949
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 1: for the Chargers because they're like their pass defense they

950
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 1: had that.

951
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:33,279
Speaker 2: I love Samuel too because I love.

952
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's gonna be better, you would think he'd get better,

953
00:45:36,200 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 1: But I mean Jackson is so crucial just because I mean,

954
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 1: you know, the turnovers to coverage, all that stuff. You

955
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:45,000
Speaker 1: can play, man, but the Chargers whole scheme last year

956
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 1: we talked about this a ton on the show is

957
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 1: that they're gonna they're gonna protect deep, they're gonna concede

958
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 1: the run. Right, So they were one of the worst

959
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 1: teams against the rung, but they were also below average

960
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:57,600
Speaker 1: dv A against the past, so like you know, they

961
00:45:57,640 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 1: couldn't that's that's that's just not feasible in this conference

962
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 1: and even in this division. And now I think they're

963
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:10,320
Speaker 1: gonna be that above average, that top ten pass defense

964
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:14,360
Speaker 1: this year. And and and they obviously have the offense.

965
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 1: They have one of the best running backs in the

966
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 1: game weapons period in Eckler, and one of the best

967
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:20,879
Speaker 1: receivers that can get open Herbert, one of the best

968
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 1: deep ball press quarterbacks period, Mike Williams, one of the

969
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 1: better deep ball receivers. I mean, there's just so much

970
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 1: talent there. The Broncos have you know, kicker, Charges have

971
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:32,359
Speaker 1: a kicker yet, do they have a kicker? I don't

972
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 1: know that. I could not tell you who the Charges

973
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:34,719
Speaker 1: kicker is right now.

974
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 2: Let me see, Well, they had that kid that they

975
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:42,359
Speaker 2: signed from who was awful in college. They finally cut

976
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 2: him at the end of the year. Then they got

977
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 2: Dustin Hopkins, so he's like I think he's kicker he

978
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 2: asks way better than what they've had. Yeah, but yeah,

979
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:53,960
Speaker 2: I mean the ANFC is insane. Ready, you won't no

980
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:56,359
Speaker 2: one would be surprised if any of these teams made

981
00:46:56,400 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 2: the playoffs. Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, Titans, Cole Ravens, Browns, Bengals, Raiders, Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers.

982
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:09,360
Speaker 2: Seven spots. Those twelve teams, I mean some some depending

983
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:12,560
Speaker 2: on what their division are in, but that's insane. You

984
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:14,280
Speaker 2: on the FC in the list, you'd.

985
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 1: Be like, I got like six, yeah, I guess the Cowboys, and.

986
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:20,000
Speaker 2: Then you're going, yeah, then you're then you're going to like,

987
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:25,160
Speaker 2: all right, any Eagles or Giants or so, Yeah, the

988
00:47:25,360 --> 00:47:27,560
Speaker 2: f C is absolutely loaded. It's going to be a blast.

989
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:30,319
Speaker 2: And then the playoffs are gonna be amazing. And then

990
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 2: like a full season of Watson makes the Browns even

991
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:37,440
Speaker 2: more dangerous. Like it's yeah, the f C, it's it's

992
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 2: gonna be a blast. So I think the wrap up,

993
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:45,720
Speaker 2: I would say the my favorite win totals Jets as always,

994
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 2: Jets under Maybe that'll change sometimes Jets fans, But my

995
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:53,400
Speaker 2: favorite win totals Jets and Steelers unders division. Maybe if

996
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:57,440
Speaker 2: you want to get crazy, Jags, Raiders, would be my

997
00:47:57,680 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 2: favorite division future and then super both future Ravens as

998
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:04,800
Speaker 2: I said in Super Bowl thirty to one was great,

999
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 2: still likely at where it is now.

1000
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, my favorite Colts to miss the playoffs at plus

1001
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:15,439
Speaker 1: one thirty five Colts win total under nine and a half.

1002
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:19,440
Speaker 1: Love the Ravens long shots at you know, super Bowl Division,

1003
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 1: super Bowl and conference. I think the Ravens make a

1004
00:48:23,480 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 1: lot of sense. And then in the AFC West under

1005
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs Raiders long shot division. And then if

1006
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 1: you're choosing between the Broncos or the Chargers, I think

1007
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:37,880
Speaker 1: the Broncos of one tiny widow sliver more likely to

1008
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 1: go under, I mean go over. Excuse me their win

1009
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:43,840
Speaker 1: total of ten because they have this game against the Jets,

1010
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 1: whereas the Chargers have it against Miami and both of

1011
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:49,960
Speaker 1: those are at home, by the way. So yeah, loaded,

1012
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 1: AFC West, interesting conference. Love it, great analysis, stuck. I

1013
00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 1: hope you guys enjoyed the episode. Remember our NFC Win

1014
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:02,359
Speaker 1: Totals of sod is also out right now. Go check

1015
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:05,760
Speaker 1: that out actionnetwork dot com for all of our betting

1016
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 1: content across all sports, all of our NFL Draft content.

1017
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:12,759
Speaker 1: Download the free award winning Action Network app where you

1018
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:16,040
Speaker 1: can follow stuckinized bets and track yours. You can find

1019
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 1: Stucky on the app at Stucky two and meet at

1020
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 1: Chris Raybon R A y b O N. And you

1021
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 1: can also find us at those san handles on Twitter

1022
00:49:24,360 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 1: for sure. If you like the podcast, to leave us

1023
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:29,239
Speaker 1: a five star on Apple or Spotify and we'll be

1024
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:30,359
Speaker 1: back until next time.

1025
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:31,880
Speaker 2: Let's get this funny go